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Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, AlMukdad S, Coyle P, Tang P, Yassine HM, Al-Khatib HA, Smatti MK, Hasan MR, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar. Nat Commun 2022; 13:3082. [PMID: 35654888 PMCID: PMC9163167 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30895-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 129] [Impact Index Per Article: 64.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2022] [Accepted: 05/24/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants are genetically divergent. We conducted a matched, test-negative, case-control study to estimate duration of protection of the second and third/booster doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against BA.1 and BA.2 infections in Qatar. BNT162b2 effectiveness was highest at 46.6% (95% CI: 33.4-57.2%) against symptomatic BA.1 and at 51.7% (95% CI: 43.2-58.9%) against symptomatic BA.2 infections in the first three months after the second dose, but declined to ~10% or below thereafter. Effectiveness rebounded to 59.9% (95% CI: 51.2-67.0%) and 43.7% (95% CI: 36.5-50.0%), respectively, in the first month after the booster dose, before declining again. Effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalization and death was 70-80% after the second dose and >90% after the booster dose. mRNA-1273 vaccine protection showed similar patterns. mRNA vaccines provide comparable, moderate, and short-lived protection against symptomatic BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron infections, but strong and durable protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and death.
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, AlMukdad S, Yassine HM, Al-Khatib HA, Smatti MK, Tang P, Hasan MR, Coyle P, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Bertollini R. Effect of mRNA Vaccine Boosters against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Infection in Qatar. N Engl J Med 2022; 386:1804-1816. [PMID: 35263534 PMCID: PMC8929389 DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa2200797] [Citation(s) in RCA: 242] [Impact Index Per Article: 121.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Waning of vaccine protection against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and the emergence of the omicron (or B.1.1.529) variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have led to expedited efforts to scale up booster vaccination. Protection conferred by booster doses of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccines in Qatar, as compared with protection conferred by the two-dose primary series, is unclear. METHODS We conducted two matched retrospective cohort studies to assess the effectiveness of booster vaccination, as compared with that of a two-dose primary series alone, against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and Covid-19-related hospitalization and death during a large wave of omicron infections from December 19, 2021, through January 26, 2022. The association of booster status with infection was estimated with the use of Cox proportional-hazards regression models. RESULTS In a population of 2,239,193 persons who had received at least two doses of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccine, those who had also received a booster were matched with persons who had not received a booster. Among the BNT162b2-vaccinated persons, the cumulative incidence of symptomatic omicron infection was 2.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3 to 2.5) in the booster cohort and 4.5% (95% CI, 4.3 to 4.6) in the nonbooster cohort after 35 days of follow-up. Booster effectiveness against symptomatic omicron infection, as compared with that of the primary series, was 49.4% (95% CI, 47.1 to 51.6). Booster effectiveness against Covid-19-related hospitalization and death due to omicron infection, as compared with the primary series, was 76.5% (95% CI, 55.9 to 87.5). BNT162b2 booster effectiveness against symptomatic infection with the delta (or B.1.617.2) variant, as compared with the primary series, was 86.1% (95% CI, 67.3 to 94.1). Among the mRNA-1273-vaccinated persons, the cumulative incidence of symptomatic omicron infection was 1.0% (95% CI, 0.9 to 1.2) in the booster cohort and 1.9% (95% CI, 1.8 to 2.1) in the nonbooster cohort after 35 days; booster effectiveness against symptomatic omicron infection, as compared with the primary series, was 47.3% (95% CI, 40.7 to 53.3). Few severe Covid-19 cases were noted in the mRNA-1273-vaccinated cohorts. CONCLUSIONS The messenger RNA (mRNA) boosters were highly effective against symptomatic delta infection, but they were less effective against symptomatic omicron infection. However, with both variants, mRNA boosters led to strong protection against Covid-19-related hospitalization and death. (Funded by Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar and others.).
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Al-Maslamani M, Elmagboul EBI, Puthiyottil A, Chemaitelly H, Varghese MK, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Unemo M, Abu-Raddad LJ. First characterisation of antimicrobial susceptibility and resistance of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates in Qatar, 2017-2020. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0264737. [PMID: 35235608 PMCID: PMC8890659 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264737] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2021] [Accepted: 02/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Limited data are available regarding antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae strains circulating in WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). We investigated the antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance of N. gonorrhoeae isolates to five antimicrobials (ceftriaxone, azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, tetracycline, and benzylpenicillin) currently or previously used for gonorrhoea treatment in Qatar, 2017–2020. Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs; mg/L) of antimicrobials were determined using Etest on gonococcal isolates collected during January 1, 2017-August 30, 2020 at Hamad Medical Corporation, a national public healthcare provider. During 2017–2020, resistance in isolates from urogenital sites of 433 patients was 64.7% (95% CI: 59.5–69.6%; range: 43.9–78.7%) for ciprofloxacin, 50.7% (95% CI: 45.3–56.1%; range: 41.3–70.4%) for tetracycline, and 30.8% (95% CI: 26.3–35.6%; range: 26.7–35.8%) for benzylpenicillin. Percentage of isolates non-susceptible to azithromycin was 4.1% (95% CI: 2.0–7.4%; range: 2.7–4.8%) and all (100%) isolates were susceptible to ceftriaxone. Two (1.6%) isolates from 2019 and one (2.2%) isolate from 2020 had high-level resistance to azithromycin (MIC≥256 mg/L). Overall, 1.0% (4/418) of isolates had a ceftriaxone MIC of 0.25 mg/L, which is at the ceftriaxone susceptibility breakpoint (MIC≤0.25 mg/L). Treatment with ceftriaxone 250 mg plus azithromycin 1 g can continuously be recommended for gonorrhoea therapy in Qatar. Continued quality-assured gonococcal AMR surveillance is warranted in EMR.
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Altarawneh HN, Chemaitelly H, Hasan MR, Ayoub HH, Qassim S, AlMukdad S, Coyle P, Yassine HM, Al-Khatib HA, Benslimane FM, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Bertollini R, Tang P, Abu-Raddad LJ. Protection against the Omicron Variant from Previous SARS-CoV-2 Infection. N Engl J Med 2022; 386:1288-1290. [PMID: 35139269 PMCID: PMC8849180 DOI: 10.1056/nejmc2200133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 272] [Impact Index Per Article: 136.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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Bsat R, Chemaitelly H, Coyle P, Tang P, Hasan MR, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Nasrallah GK, Benslimane FM, Al Khatib HA, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ, Ayoub HH. Characterizing the effective reproduction number during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from Qatar’s experience. J Glob Health 2022; 12:05004. [PMID: 35136602 PMCID: PMC8819337 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.12.05004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The effective reproduction number, Rt, is a tool to track and understand pandemic dynamics. This investigation of Rt estimations was conducted to guide the national COVID-19 response in Qatar, from the onset of the pandemic until August 18, 2021. Methods Real-time “empirical” RtEmpirical was estimated using five methods, including the Robert Koch Institute, Cislaghi, Systrom-Bettencourt and Ribeiro, Wallinga and Teunis, and Cori et al. methods. Rt was also estimated using a transmission dynamics model (RtModel-based). Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Correlations between different Rt estimates were assessed by calculating correlation coefficients, and agreements between these estimates were assessed through Bland-Altman plots. Results RtEmpirical captured the evolution of the pandemic through three waves, public health response landmarks, effects of major social events, transient fluctuations coinciding with significant clusters of infection, and introduction and expansion of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. The various estimation methods produced consistent and overall comparable RtEmpirical estimates with generally large correlation coefficients. The Wallinga and Teunis method was the fastest at detecting changes in pandemic dynamics. RtEmpirical estimates were consistent whether using time series of symptomatic PCR-confirmed cases, all PCR-confirmed cases, acute-care hospital admissions, or ICU-care hospital admissions, to proxy trends in true infection incidence. RtModel-based correlated strongly with RtEmpirical and provided an average RtEmpirical. Conclusions Rt estimations were robust and generated consistent results regardless of the data source or the method of estimation. Findings affirmed an influential role for Rt estimations in guiding national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, even in resource-limited settings.
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Coyle PV, El Kahlout RA, Dargham SR, Chemaitelly H, Kacem MABH, Al-Mawlawi NHA, Gilliani I, Younes N, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Rahim HFA, Nasrallah GK, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Tang P, Bertollini R, Al-Thani MH, Abu-Raddad LJ. Assessing the performance of a serological point-of-care test in measuring detectable antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0262897. [PMID: 35100295 PMCID: PMC8803198 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 01/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
This study investigated the performance of a rapid point-of-care antibody test, the BioMedomics COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test, in comparison with a high-quality, validated, laboratory-based platform, the Roche Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay. Serological testing was conducted on 709 individuals. Concordance metrics were estimated. Logistic regression was used to assess associations with seropositivity. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 63.5% (450/709; 95% CI 59.8%-67.0%) using the BioMedomics assay and 71.9% (510/709; 95% CI 68.5%-75.2%) using the Elecsys assay. There were 60 discordant results between the two assays, all of which were seropositive in the Elecsys assay, but seronegative in the BioMedomics assay. Overall, positive, and negative percent agreements between the two assays were 91.5% (95% CI 89.2%-93.5%), 88.2% (95% CI 85.1%-90.9%), and 100% (95% CI 98.2%-100%), respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.81 (95% CI 0.78-0.84). Excluding specimens with lower (Elecsys) antibody titers, the agreement improved with overall, positive, and negative percent concordance of 94.4% (95% CI 92.3%-96.1%), 91.8% (95% CI 88.8%-94.3%), and 100% (95% CI 98.2%-100%), respectively, and a Cohen's kappa of 0.88 (95% CI 0.85-0.90). Logistic regression confirmed better agreement with higher antibody titers. The BioMedomics COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test demonstrated good performance in measuring detectable antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, supporting the utility of such rapid point-of-care serological testing to guide the public health responses and vaccine prioritization.
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Chemaitelly H, Tang P, Hasan MR, AlMukdad S, Yassine HM, Benslimane FM, Al Khatib HA, Coyle P, Ayoub HH, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Butt AA, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Waning of BNT162b2 Vaccine Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Qatar. N Engl J Med 2021; 385:e83. [PMID: 34614327 PMCID: PMC8522799 DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa2114114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 538] [Impact Index Per Article: 179.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Waning of vaccine protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is a concern. The persistence of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine effectiveness against infection and disease in Qatar, where the B.1.351 (or beta) and B.1.617.2 (or delta) variants have dominated incidence and polymerase-chain-reaction testing is done on a mass scale, is unclear. METHODS We used a matched test-negative, case-control study design to estimate vaccine effectiveness against any SARS-CoV-2 infection and against any severe, critical, or fatal case of Covid-19, from January 1 to September 5, 2021. RESULTS Estimated BNT162b2 effectiveness against any SARS-CoV-2 infection was negligible in the first 2 weeks after the first dose. It increased to 36.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.2 to 40.2) in the third week after the first dose and reached its peak at 77.5% (95% CI, 76.4 to 78.6) in the first month after the second dose. Effectiveness declined gradually thereafter, with the decline accelerating after the fourth month to reach approximately 20% in months 5 through 7 after the second dose. Effectiveness against symptomatic infection was higher than effectiveness against asymptomatic infection but waned similarly. Variant-specific effectiveness waned in the same pattern. Effectiveness against any severe, critical, or fatal case of Covid-19 increased rapidly to 66.1% (95% CI, 56.8 to 73.5) by the third week after the first dose and reached 96% or higher in the first 2 months after the second dose; effectiveness persisted at approximately this level for 6 months. CONCLUSIONS BNT162b2-induced protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection appeared to wane rapidly following its peak after the second dose, but protection against hospitalization and death persisted at a robust level for 6 months after the second dose. (Funded by Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar and others.).
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Coyle P, Malek JA, Ahmed AA, Mohamoud YA, Younuskunju S, Tang P, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Bertollini R. Introduction and expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reinfections in Qatar: A nationally representative cohort study. PLoS Med 2021; 18:e1003879. [PMID: 34914711 PMCID: PMC8726501 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003879] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2021] [Revised: 01/04/2022] [Accepted: 11/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 (or Alpha) variant is insufficiently understood. This study's objective was to describe the introduction and expansion of this variant in Qatar and to estimate the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection with this variant. METHODS AND FINDINGS Reinfections with the B.1.1.7 variant and variants of unknown status were investigated in a national cohort of 158,608 individuals with prior PCR-confirmed infections and a national cohort of 42,848 antibody-positive individuals. Infections with B.1.1.7 and variants of unknown status were also investigated in a national comparator cohort of 132,701 antibody-negative individuals. B.1.1.7 was first identified in Qatar on 25 December 2020. Sudden, large B.1.1.7 epidemic expansion was observed starting on 18 January 2021, triggering the onset of epidemic's second wave, 7 months after the first wave. B.1.1.7 was about 60% more infectious than the original (wild-type) circulating variants. Among persons with a prior PCR-confirmed infection, the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection was estimated to be 97.5% (95% CI: 95.7% to 98.6%) for B.1.1.7 and 92.2% (95% CI: 90.6% to 93.5%) for variants of unknown status. Among antibody-positive persons, the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection was estimated to be 97.0% (95% CI: 92.5% to 98.7%) for B.1.1.7 and 94.2% (95% CI: 91.8% to 96.0%) for variants of unknown status. A main limitation of this study is assessment of reinfections based on documented PCR-confirmed reinfections, but other reinfections could have occurred and gone undocumented. CONCLUSIONS In this study, we observed that introduction of B.1.1.7 into a naïve population can create a major epidemic wave, but natural immunity in those previously infected was strongly associated with limited incidence of reinfection by B.1.1.7 or other variants.
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Yassine HM, Benslimane FM, Al Khatib HA, Tang P, Hasan MR, Coyle P, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Bertollini R. Association of Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection With Risk of Breakthrough Infection Following mRNA Vaccination in Qatar. JAMA 2021; 326:1930-1939. [PMID: 34724027 PMCID: PMC8561432 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2021.19623] [Citation(s) in RCA: 103] [Impact Index Per Article: 34.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 10/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
Importance The effect of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection on vaccine protection remains poorly understood. Objective To assess protection from SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection after mRNA vaccination among persons with vs without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants Matched-cohort studies in Qatar for the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccines. A total of 1 531 736 individuals vaccinated with either vaccine between December 21, 2020, and September 19, 2021, were followed up beginning 14 days after receiving the second dose until September 19, 2021. Exposures Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination. Main Outcomes and Measures Incident SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive nasopharyngeal swab regardless of reason for PCR testing or presence of symptoms. Cumulative incidence was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator method. Results The BNT162b2-vaccinated cohort comprised 99 226 individuals with and 290 432 matched individuals without prior PCR-confirmed infection (median age, 37 years; 68% male). The mRNA-1273-vaccinated cohort comprised 58 096 individuals with and 169 514 matched individuals without prior PCR-confirmed infection (median age, 36 years; 73% male). Among BNT162b2-vaccinated persons, 159 reinfections occurred in those with and 2509 in those without prior infection 14 days or more after dose 2. Among mRNA-1273-vaccinated persons, 43 reinfections occurred in those with and 368 infections in those without prior infection. Cumulative infection incidence among BNT162b2-vaccinated individuals was an estimated 0.15% (95% CI, 0.12%-0.18%) in those with and 0.83% (95% CI, 0.79%-0.87%) in those without prior infection at 120 days of follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio for breakthrough infection with prior infection, 0.18 [95% CI, 0.15-0.21]; P < .001). Cumulative infection incidence among mRNA-1273-vaccinated individuals was an estimated 0.11% (95% CI, 0.08%-0.15%) in those with and 0.35% (95% CI, 0.32%-0.40%) in those without prior infection at 120 days of follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.35 [95% CI, 0.25-0.48]; P < .001). Vaccinated individuals with prior infection 6 months or more before dose 1 had statistically significantly lower risk for breakthrough infection than those vaccinated less than 6 months before dose 1 (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.42-0.92]; P = .02 for BNT162b2 and 0.40 [95% CI, 0.18-0.91]; P = .03 for mRNA-1273 vaccination). Conclusions and Relevance Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a statistically significantly lower risk for breakthrough infection among individuals receiving the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccines in Qatar between December 21, 2020, and September 19, 2021. The observational study design precludes direct comparisons of infection risk between the 2 vaccines.
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Yassine HM, Benslimane FM, Al Khatib HA, Tang P, Hasan MR, Coyle P, AlMukdad S, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Bertollini R. Severity, Criticality, and Fatality of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Beta Variant. Clin Infect Dis 2021; 75:e1188-e1191. [PMID: 34657152 PMCID: PMC9402694 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Beta (B.1.351)-variant coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease was investigated in Qatar. Compared with the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant, odds (95% confidence interval) of progressing to severe disease, critical disease, and COVID-19-related death were 1.24-fold (1.11-1.39), 1.49-fold (1.13-1.97), and 1.57-fold (1.03-2.43) higher, respectively, for the Beta variant.
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Yassine HM, Benslimane FM, Al Khatib HA, Tang P, Malek JA, Coyle P, Ayoub HH, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Butt AA, Bertollini R. Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA BNT162b2 Covid-19 vaccine protection against variants of concern after one versus two doses. J Travel Med 2021; 28:6287696. [PMID: 34050372 PMCID: PMC8194836 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taab083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2021] [Revised: 05/25/2021] [Accepted: 05/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Malek JA, Ahmed AA, Mohamoud YA, Younuskunju S, Ayoub HH, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R. Assessment of the Risk of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Reinfection in an Intense Reexposure Setting. Clin Infect Dis 2021. [PMID: 33315061 DOI: 10.1101/2020.08.24.20179457] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/22/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Risk of reinfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is unknown. We assessed the risk and incidence rate of documented SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in a cohort of laboratory-confirmed cases in Qatar. METHODS All SARS-CoV-2 laboratory-confirmed cases with at least 1 polymerase chain reaction-positive swab that was ≥45 days after a first positive swab were individually investigated for evidence of reinfection. Viral genome sequencing of the paired first positive and reinfection viral specimens was conducted to confirm reinfection. RESULTS Out of 133 266 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases, 243 persons (0.18%) had at least 1 subsequent positive swab ≥45 days after the first positive swab. Of these, 54 cases (22.2%) had strong or good evidence for reinfection. Median time between the first swab and reinfection swab was 64.5 days (range, 45-129). Twenty-three of the 54 cases (42.6%) were diagnosed at a health facility, suggesting presence of symptoms, while 31 (57.4%) were identified incidentally through random testing campaigns/surveys or contact tracing. Only 1 person was hospitalized at the time of reinfection but was discharged the next day. No deaths were recorded. Viral genome sequencing confirmed 4 reinfections of 12 cases with available genetic evidence. Reinfection risk was estimated at 0.02% (95% confidence interval [CI], .01%-.02%), and reinfection incidence rate was 0.36 (95% CI, .28-.47) per 10 000 person-weeks. CONCLUSIONS SARS-CoV-2 reinfection can occur but is a rare phenomenon suggestive of protective immunity against reinfection that lasts for at least a few months post primary infection.
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Seedat S, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Makhoul M, Mumtaz GR, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalization, severity, criticality, and fatality rates in Qatar. Sci Rep 2021; 11:18182. [PMID: 34521903 PMCID: PMC8440606 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-97606-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2021] [Accepted: 07/21/2021] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic resulted in considerable morbidity and mortality as well as severe economic and societal disruptions. Despite scientific progress, true infection severity, factoring both diagnosed and undiagnosed infections, remains poorly understood. This study aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 age-stratified and overall morbidity and mortality rates based on analysis of extensive epidemiological data for the pervasive epidemic in Qatar, a country where < 9% of the population are ≥ 50 years. We show that SARS-CoV-2 severity and fatality demonstrate a striking age dependence with low values for those aged < 50 years, but rapidly growing rates for those ≥ 50 years. Age dependence was particularly pronounced for infection criticality rate and infection fatality rate. With Qatar's young population, overall SARS-CoV-2 severity and fatality were not high with < 4 infections in every 1000 being severe or critical and < 2 in every 10,000 being fatal. Only 13 infections in every 1000 received any hospitalization in acute-care-unit beds and < 2 in every 1000 were hospitalized in intensive-care-unit beds. However, we show that these rates would have been much higher if Qatar's population had the demographic structure of Europe or the United States. Epidemic expansion in nations with young populations may lead to considerably lower disease burden than currently believed.
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Al-Thani MH, Farag E, Bertollini R, Al Romaihi HE, Abdeen S, Abdelkarim A, Daraan F, Elhaj Ismail AIH, Mostafa N, Sahl M, Suliman J, Tayar E, Kasem HA, Agsalog MJA, Akkarathodiyil BK, Alkhalaf AA, Alakshar MMMH, Al-Qahtani AAAH, Al-Shedifat MHA, Ansari A, Ataalla AA, Chougule S, Gopinathan AKKV, Poolakundan FJ, Ranbhise SU, Saefan SMA, Thaivalappil MM, Thoyalil AS, Umar IM, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Yassine HM, Nasrallah GK, Al Kuwari MG, Chaghoury O, Chemaitelly H, Abu-Raddad LJ. SARS-CoV-2 Infection Is at Herd Immunity in the Majority Segment of the Population of Qatar. Open Forum Infect Dis 2021; 8:ofab221. [PMID: 34458388 PMCID: PMC8135898 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofab221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 04/27/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Qatar experienced a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic that disproportionately affected the craft and manual worker (CMW) population, who comprise 60% of the total population. This study aimed to assess ever and/or current infection prevalence in this population. METHODS A cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted during July 26 to September 09, 2020, to assess both anti-SARS-CoV-2 positivity through serological testing and current infection positivity through polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Associations with antibody and PCR positivity were identified through regression analyses. RESULTS The study included 2641 participants, 69.3% of whom were <40 years of age. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 positivity was 55.3% (95% CI, 53.3%-57.3%) and was significantly associated with nationality, geographic location, educational attainment, occupation, and previous infection diagnosis. PCR positivity was 11.3% (95% CI, 9.9%-12.8%) and was significantly associated with nationality, geographic location, occupation, contact with an infected person, and reporting 2 or more symptoms. Infection positivity (antibody and/or PCR positive) was 60.6% (95% CI, 58.6%-62.5%). The proportion of antibody-positive CMWs who had a prior SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis was 9.3% (95% CI, 7.9%-11.0%). Only seven infections were ever severe, and only 1 was ever critical-an infection severity rate of 0.5% (95% CI, 0.2%-1.0%). CONCLUSIONS Six in every 10 CMWs in Qatar have been infected, suggestive of reaching the herd immunity threshold. Infection severity was low, with only 1 in every 200 infections progressing to be severe or critical. Only 1 in every 10 infections had been previously diagnosed, which is suggestive of mostly asymptomatic or mild infections.
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Bertollini R, Chemaitelly H, Yassine HM, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Abu-Raddad LJ. Associations of Vaccination and of Prior Infection With Positive PCR Test Results for SARS-CoV-2 in Airline Passengers Arriving in Qatar. JAMA 2021; 326:185-188. [PMID: 34106201 PMCID: PMC8190701 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2021.9970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Abstract
This study explores the association of vaccination against COVID-19 or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection with PCR test positivity in airline passengers arriving in Qatar, February-April 2021.
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Coyle PV, Chemaitelly H, Ben Hadj Kacem MA, Abdulla Al Molawi NH, El Kahlout RA, Gilliani I, Younes N, Al Anssari GAA, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the urban population of Qatar: An analysis of antibody testing on a sample of 112,941 individuals. iScience 2021; 24:102646. [PMID: 34056566 PMCID: PMC8142077 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2021.102646] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2021] [Revised: 04/21/2021] [Accepted: 05/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The study objective was to the assess level of detectable severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in the urban population of Qatar. Antibody testing was performed on residual blood specimens for 112,941 individuals (∼10% of Qatar's urban population) attending for routine/other clinical care between May 12 and September 9, 2020. Seropositivity was 13.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 13.1-13.6%) and was independently associated with sex, age, nationality, clinical care encounter type, and testing date. Median optical density (antibody titer) among antibody-positive persons was 27.0 (range = 1.0-150.0), with higher values associated with age, nationality, clinical care encounter type, and testing date. Seropositivity by nationality was positively correlated with the likelihood of having higher antibody titers (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.85; 95% CI = 0.47-0.96). Less than two in every 10 individuals in Qatar's urban population had detectable antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, suggesting this population is still far from herd immunity and at risk of subsequent infection waves. Higher antibody titer appears to be a biomarker of repeated exposures to the infection.
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Jeremijenko A, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Alishaq M, Abou-Samra AB, Al Ajmi JAAA, Al Ansari NAA, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Al-Mohammed A, Al Molawi NHA, Al Naomi HM, Butt AA, Coyle P, El Kahlout RA, Gillani I, Kaleeckal AH, Masoodi NA, Thomas AG, Nafady-Hego H, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Younes NBM, Rahim HFA, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Herd Immunity against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection in 10 Communities, Qatar. Emerg Infect Dis 2021; 27:1343-1352. [PMID: 33900174 PMCID: PMC8084480 DOI: 10.3201/eid2705.204365] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
We investigated what proportion of the population acquired severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and whether the herd immunity threshold has been reached in 10 communities in Qatar. The study included 4,970 participants during June 21-September 9, 2020. Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were detected by using an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Seropositivity ranged from 54.9% (95% CI 50.2%-59.4%) to 83.8% (95% CI 79.1%-87.7%) across communities and showed a pooled mean of 66.1% (95% CI 61.5%-70.6%). A range of other epidemiologic measures indicated that active infection is rare, with limited if any sustainable infection transmission for clusters to occur. Only 5 infections were ever severe and 1 was critical in these young communities; infection severity rate of 0.2% (95% CI 0.1%-0.4%). Specific communities in Qatar have or nearly reached herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 infection: 65%-70% of the population has been infected.
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Khaled SM, Petcu C, Bader L, Amro I, Al-Hamadi AMHA, Al Assi M, Ali AAM, Le Trung K, Diop A, Bellaj T, Al-Thani MH, Woodruff PW, Alabdulla M, Haddad PM. Prevalence and Potential Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy and Resistance in Qatar: Results from a Nationally Representative Survey of Qatari Nationals and Migrants between December 2020 and January 2021. Vaccines (Basel) 2021; 9:471. [PMID: 34067103 PMCID: PMC8151168 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines9050471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2021] [Revised: 04/18/2021] [Accepted: 04/20/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Global COVID-19 pandemic containment necessitates understanding the risk of hesitance or resistance to vaccine uptake in different populations. The Middle East and North Africa currently lack vital representative vaccine hesitancy data. We conducted the first representative national phone survey among the adult population of Qatar, between December 2020 and January 2021, to estimate the prevalence and identify potential determinants of vaccine willingness: acceptance (strongly agree), resistance (strongly disagree), and hesitance (somewhat agree, neutral, somewhat disagree). Bivariate and multinomial logistic regression models estimated associations between willingness groups and fifteen variables. In the total sample, 42.7% (95% CI: 39.5-46.1) were accepting, 45.2% (95% CI: 41.9-48.4) hesitant, and 12.1% (95% CI: 10.1-14.4) resistant. Vaccine resistant compared with hesistant and accepting groups reported no endorsement source will increase vaccine confidence (58.9% vs. 5.6% vs. 0.2%, respectively). Female gender, Arab ethnicity, migrant status/type, and vaccine side-effects concerns were associated with hesitancy and resistance. COVID-19 related bereavement, infection, and quarantine status were not significantly associated with any willingness group. Absence of or lack of concern about contracting the virus was solely associated with resistance. COVID-19 vaccine resistance, hesitance, and side-effects concerns are high in Qatar's population compared with those globally. Urgent public health engagement should focus on women, Qataris (non-migrants), and those of Arab ethnicity.
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Coyle P, Malek JA, Ahmed AA, Mohamoud YA, Younuskunju S, Ayoub HH, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Bertollini R. SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positivity protects against reinfection for at least seven months with 95% efficacy. EClinicalMedicine 2021; 35:100861. [PMID: 33937733 PMCID: PMC8079668 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.100861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 106] [Impact Index Per Article: 35.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2021] [Revised: 04/02/2021] [Accepted: 04/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Reinfection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been documented, raising public health concerns. SARS-CoV-2 reinfections were assessed in a cohort of antibody-positive persons in Qatar. METHODS All SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positive persons from April 16 to December 31, 2020 with a PCR-positive swab ≥14 days after the first-positive antibody test were investigated for evidence of reinfection. Viral genome sequencing was conducted for paired viral specimens to confirm reinfection. Incidence of reinfection was compared to incidence of infection in the complement cohort of those who were antibody-negative. FINDINGS Among 43,044 antibody-positive persons who were followed for a median of 16.3 weeks (range: 0-34.6), 314 individuals (0.7%) had at least one PCR positive swab ≥14 days after the first-positive antibody test. Of these individuals, 129 (41.1%) had supporting epidemiological evidence for reinfection. Reinfection was next investigated using viral genome sequencing. Applying the viral-genome-sequencing confirmation rate, the incidence rate of reinfection was estimated at 0.66 per 10,000 person-weeks (95% CI: 0.56-0.78). Incidence rate of reinfection versus month of follow-up did not show any evidence of waning of immunity for over seven months of follow-up. Meanwhile, in the complement cohort of 149,923 antibody-negative persons followed for a median of 17.0 weeks (range: 0-45.6), incidence rate of infection was estimated at 13.69 per 10,000 person-weeks (95% CI: 13.22-14.14). Efficacy of natural infection against reinfection was estimated at 95.2% (95% CI: 94.1-96.0%). Reinfections were less severe than primary infections. Only one reinfection was severe, two were moderate, and none were critical or fatal. Most reinfections (66.7%) were diagnosed incidentally through random or routine testing, or through contact tracing. INTERPRETATION Reinfection is rare in the young and international population of Qatar. Natural infection appears to elicit strong protection against reinfection with an efficacy ~95% for at least seven months. FUNDING Biomedical Research Program, the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core, and the Genomics Core, all at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, the Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, and the Qatar Genome Programme.
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Ayoub HH, Chemaitelly H, Makhoul M, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R, Al Khal A, Abu-Raddad LJ. Epidemiological impact of prioritising SARS-CoV-2 vaccination by antibody status: mathematical modelling analyses. BMJ INNOVATIONS 2021; 7:327-336. [PMID: 34192020 PMCID: PMC8025209 DOI: 10.1136/bmjinnov-2021-000677] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2021] [Revised: 03/08/2021] [Accepted: 03/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been developed, but their availability falls far short of global needs. This study aimed to investigate the impact of prioritising available doses on the basis of recipient antibody status, that is by exposure status, using Qatar as an example. METHODS Vaccination impact (defined as the reduction in infection incidence and the number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection or one adverse disease outcome) was assessed under different scale-up scenarios using a deterministic meta-population mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression in the presence of vaccination. RESULTS For a vaccine that protects against infection with an efficacy of 95%, half as many vaccinations were needed to avert one infection, disease outcome or death by prioritising antibody-negative individuals for vaccination. Prioritisation by antibody status reduced incidence at a faster rate and led to faster elimination of infection and return to normalcy. Further prioritisation by age group amplified the gains of prioritisation by antibody status. Gains from prioritisation by antibody status were largest in settings where the proportion of the population already infected at the commencement of vaccination was 30%-60%. For a vaccine that only protects against disease and not infection, vaccine impact was reduced by half, whether this impact was measured in terms of averted infections or disease outcomes, but the relative gains from using antibody status to prioritise vaccination recipients were similar. CONCLUSIONS Major health and economic gains can be achieved more quickly by prioritizing those who are antibody-negative while doses of the vaccine remain in short supply.
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Owen RC, Rahim HFA, Al Abdulla SA, Al Kuwari MG, Kandy MC, Saeb H, Ahmed SNN, Al Romaihi HE, Bansal D, Dalton L, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R. Characterizing the Qatar advanced-phase SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Sci Rep 2021; 11:6233. [PMID: 33737535 PMCID: PMC7973743 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-85428-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2020] [Accepted: 02/26/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The overarching objective of this study was to provide the descriptive epidemiology of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic in Qatar by addressing specific research questions through a series of national epidemiologic studies. Sources of data were the centralized and standardized national databases for SARS-CoV-2 infection. By July 10, 2020, 397,577 individuals had been tested for SARS-CoV-2 using polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR), of whom 110,986 were positive, a positivity cumulative rate of 27.9% (95% CI 27.8-28.1%). As of July 5, case severity rate, based on World Health Organization (WHO) severity classification, was 3.4% and case fatality rate was 1.4 per 1,000 persons. Age was by far the strongest predictor of severe, critical, or fatal infection. PCR positivity of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs in a national community survey (May 6-7) including 1,307 participants was 14.9% (95% CI 11.5-19.0%); 58.5% of those testing positive were asymptomatic. Across 448 ad-hoc testing campaigns in workplaces and residential areas including 26,715 individuals, pooled mean PCR positivity was 15.6% (95% CI 13.7-17.7%). SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence was 24.0% (95% CI 23.3-24.6%) in 32,970 residual clinical blood specimens. Antibody prevalence was only 47.3% (95% CI 46.2-48.5%) in those who had at least one PCR positive result, but 91.3% (95% CI 89.5-92.9%) among those who were PCR positive > 3 weeks before serology testing. Qatar has experienced a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that is rapidly declining, apparently due to growing immunity levels in the population.
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Owen RC, Rahim HFA, Al Abdulla SA, Al Kuwari MG, Kandy MC, Saeb H, Ahmed SNN, Al Romaihi HE, Bansal D, Dalton L, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R. Characterizing the Qatar advanced-phase SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Sci Rep 2021; 11:6233. [PMID: 33737535 DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.16.20155317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2020] [Accepted: 02/26/2021] [Indexed: 05/23/2023] Open
Abstract
The overarching objective of this study was to provide the descriptive epidemiology of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic in Qatar by addressing specific research questions through a series of national epidemiologic studies. Sources of data were the centralized and standardized national databases for SARS-CoV-2 infection. By July 10, 2020, 397,577 individuals had been tested for SARS-CoV-2 using polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR), of whom 110,986 were positive, a positivity cumulative rate of 27.9% (95% CI 27.8-28.1%). As of July 5, case severity rate, based on World Health Organization (WHO) severity classification, was 3.4% and case fatality rate was 1.4 per 1,000 persons. Age was by far the strongest predictor of severe, critical, or fatal infection. PCR positivity of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs in a national community survey (May 6-7) including 1,307 participants was 14.9% (95% CI 11.5-19.0%); 58.5% of those testing positive were asymptomatic. Across 448 ad-hoc testing campaigns in workplaces and residential areas including 26,715 individuals, pooled mean PCR positivity was 15.6% (95% CI 13.7-17.7%). SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence was 24.0% (95% CI 23.3-24.6%) in 32,970 residual clinical blood specimens. Antibody prevalence was only 47.3% (95% CI 46.2-48.5%) in those who had at least one PCR positive result, but 91.3% (95% CI 89.5-92.9%) among those who were PCR positive > 3 weeks before serology testing. Qatar has experienced a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that is rapidly declining, apparently due to growing immunity levels in the population.
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Ayoub HH, Chemaitelly H, Seedat S, Makhoul M, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Rahim HA, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R, Abu Raddad LJ. Mathematical modeling of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Qatar and its impact on the national response to COVID-19. J Glob Health 2021; 11:05005. [PMID: 33643638 PMCID: PMC7897910 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.11.05005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mathematical modeling constitutes an important tool for planning robust responses to epidemics. This study was conducted to guide the Qatari national response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic. The study investigated the epidemic's time-course, forecasted health care needs, predicted the impact of social and physical distancing restrictions, and rationalized and justified easing of restrictions. METHODS An age-structured deterministic model was constructed to describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and disease progression throughout the population. RESULTS The enforced social and physical distancing interventions flattened the epidemic curve, reducing the peaks for incidence, prevalence, acute-care hospitalization, and intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations by 87%, 86%, 76%, and 78%, respectively. The daily number of new infections was predicted to peak at 12 750 on May 23, and active-infection prevalence was predicted to peak at 3.2% on May 25. Daily acute-care and ICU-care hospital admissions and occupancy were forecast accurately and precisely. By October 15, 2020, the basic reproduction number R0 had varied between 1.07-2.78, and 50.8% of the population were estimated to have been infected (1.43 million infections). The proportion of actual infections diagnosed was estimated at 11.6%. Applying the concept of Rt tuning, gradual easing of restrictions was rationalized and justified to start on June 15, 2020, when Rt declined to 0.7, to buffer the increased interpersonal contact with easing of restrictions and to minimize the risk of a second wave. No second wave has materialized as of October 15, 2020, five months after the epidemic peak. CONCLUSIONS Use of modeling and forecasting to guide the national response proved to be a successful strategy, reducing the toll of the epidemic to a manageable level for the health care system.
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Malek JA, Ahmed AA, Mohamoud YA, Younuskunju S, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R. Two prolonged viremic SARS-CoV-2 infections with conserved viral genome for two months. INFECTION GENETICS AND EVOLUTION 2020; 88:104684. [PMID: 33352320 PMCID: PMC7759339 DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104684] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2020] [Revised: 11/30/2020] [Accepted: 12/18/2020] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
We document two cases of viremic and prolonged active infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) where the viral genome was conserved for two months, but infection was with little or no symptoms. The first infection persisted for 80 days and the second for 62 days. Clearance of infection occurred 40 and 41 days, respectively, after development of detectable antibodies. Both cases were identified incidentally in an investigation of reinfection in a cohort of 133,266 laboratory-confirmed infected persons.
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Malek JA, Ahmed AA, Mohamoud YA, Younuskunju S, Ayoub HH, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R. Assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in an intense re-exposure setting. Clin Infect Dis 2020; 73:e1830-e1840. [PMID: 33315061 PMCID: PMC7799253 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 108] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2020] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Risk of reinfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is unknown. We assessed risk and incidence rate of documented SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in a cohort of laboratory-confirmed cases in Qatar. METHODS All SARS-CoV-2 laboratory-confirmed cases with at least one PCR positive swab that is ≥45 days after a first-positive swab were individually investigated for evidence of reinfection, and classified as showing strong, good, some, or weak/no evidence for reinfection. Viral genome sequencing of the paired first-positive and reinfection viral specimens was conducted to confirm reinfection. Risk and incidence rate of reinfection were estimated. RESULTS Out of 133,266 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases, 243 persons (0.18%) had at least one subsequent positive swab ≥45 days after the first-positive swab. Of these, 54 cases (22.2%) had strong or good evidence for reinfection. Median time between first and reinfection swab was 64.5 days (range: 45-129). Twenty-three of the 54 cases (42.6%) were diagnosed at a health facility suggesting presence of symptoms, while 31 (57.4%) were identified incidentally through random testing campaigns/surveys or contact tracing. Only one person was hospitalized at time of reinfection, but was discharged the next day. No deaths were recorded. Viral genome sequencing confirmed four reinfections out of 12 cases with available genetic evidence. Reinfection risk was estimated at 0.02% (95% CI: 0.01-0.02%) and reinfection incidence rate at 0.36 (95% CI: 0.28-0.47) per 10,000 person-weeks. CONCLUSIONS SARS-CoV-2 reinfection can occur but is a rare phenomenon suggestive of protective immunity against reinfection that lasts for at least a few months post primary infection.
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