The economic burden of rotavirus hospitalization among children < 5 years of age in selected hospitals in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus is a common cause of severe acute gastroenteritis among young children. Estimation of the economic burden would provide informed decision about investment on prevention strategies (e.g., vaccine and/or behavior change), which has been a potential policy discussion in Bangladesh for several years.

METHODS

We estimated the societal costs of children <5 years for hospitalization from rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) and incidences of catastrophic health expenditure. A total of 360 children with stool specimens positive for rotavirus were included in this study from 6 tertiary hospitals (3 public and 3 private). We interviewed the caregiver of the patient and hospital staff to collect cost from patient and health facility perspectives. We estimated the economic cost considering 2015 as the reference year.

RESULTS

The total societal per-patient costs to treat RVGE in the public hospital were 126 USD (95% CI: 116-136) and total household costs were 161 USD (95% CI: 145-177) in private facilities. Direct costs constituted 38.1% of total household costs. The out-of-pocket payments for RVGE hospitalization was 23% of monthly income and 76% of households faced catastrophic healthcare expenditures due to this expense. The estimated total annual household treatment cost for the country was 10 million USD.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial economic burden of RVGE in Bangladesh was observed in this study. Any prevention of RVGE through cost-effective vaccination or/and behavioural change would contribute to substantial economic benefits to Bangladesh.

Hepatitis E in Bangladesh: Insights from a National Serosurvey

Background

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) genotypes 1 and 2 are a major cause of avoidable morbidity and mortality in South Asia. Despite the high risk of death among infected pregnant women, scarce incidence data has been a contributing factor to global policy recommendations against the introduction of licensed hepatitis E vaccines, one of the only effective prevention tools.

Methods

We tested serum from a nationally representative serosurvey in Bangladesh for anti-HEV immunoglobulin G and estimated seroprevalence. We used Bayesian geostatistical models to generate high-resolution maps of seropositivity and examined variability in seropositivity by individual-level, household-level, and community-level risk factors using spatial logistic regression.

Results

We tested serum samples from 2924 individuals from 70 communities representing all divisions of Bangladesh and estimated a national seroprevalence of 20% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17%–24%). Seropositivity increased with age and male sex (odds ratio, 2.2 male vs female; 95% CI, 1.8–2.8). Community-level seroprevalence ranged widely (0–78%) with higher seroprevalence in urban areas, including Dhaka, with a 3.0-fold (95% credible interval, 2.3–3.7) higher seroprevalence than the rest of the country.

Conclusions

Hepatitis E infections are common throughout Bangladesh. Strengthening surveillance for hepatitis E, especially in urban areas, can provide additional evidence to appropriately target interventions.

Assessing the feasibility of Nipah vaccine efficacy trials based on previous outbreaks in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Nipah virus (NiV) is an emerging, bat-borne pathogen that can be transmitted from person-to-person. Vaccines are currently being developed for NiV, and studies have been funded to evaluate their safety and immunogenicity. An important unanswered question is whether it will be possible to evaluate the efficacy of vaccine candidates in phase III clinical trials in a context where spillovers from the zoonotic reservoir are infrequent and associated with small outbreaks. The objective of this study was to investigate the feasibility of conducting a phase III vaccine trial in Bangladesh, the only country regularly reporting NiV cases.

METHODS

We used simulations based on previously observed NiV cases from Bangladesh, an assumed vaccine efficacy of 90% and other NiV vaccine target characteristics, to compare three vaccination study designs: (i) cluster randomized ring vaccination, (ii) cluster randomized mass vaccination, and (iii) an observational case-control study design.

RESULTS

The simulations showed that, assuming a ramp-up period of 10 days and a mean hospitalization delay of 4 days,a cluster-randomized ring vaccination trial would require 516 years and over 163,000 vaccine doses to run a ring vaccination trial under current epidemic conditions. A cluster-randomized mass vaccination trial in the two most affected districts would take 43 years and 1.83 million vaccine doses. An observational case-control design in these two districts would require seven years and 2.5 million vaccine doses.

DISCUSSION

Without a change in the epidemiology of NiV, ring vaccination or mass vaccination trials are unlikely to be completed within a reasonable time window. In this light, the remaining options are: (i) not conducting a phase III trial until the epidemiology of NiV changes, (ii) identifying alternative ways to licensure such as observational studies or controlled studies in animals such as in the US Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Animal Rule.

Global Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Related Infant Community Deaths

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of pediatric death, with >99% of mortality occurring in low- and lower middle-income countries. At least half of RSV-related deaths are estimated to occur in the community, but clinical characteristics of this group of children remain poorly characterized.

METHODS

The RSV Global Online Mortality Database (RSV GOLD), a global registry of under-5 children who have died with RSV-related illness, describes clinical characteristics of children dying of RSV through global data sharing. RSV GOLD acts as a collaborative platform for global deaths, including community mortality studies described in this supplement. We aimed to compare the age distribution of infant deaths <6 months occurring in the community with in-hospital.

RESULTS

We studied 829 RSV-related deaths <1 year of age from 38 developing countries, including 166 community deaths from 12 countries. There were 629 deaths that occurred <6 months, of which 156 (25%) occurred in the community. Among infants who died before 6 months of age, median age at death in the community (1.5 months; IQR: 0.8-3.3) was lower than in-hospital (2.4 months; IQR: 1.5-4.0; P < .0001). The proportion of neonatal deaths was higher in the community (29%, 46/156) than in-hospital (12%, 57/473, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed that children in the community die at a younger age. We expect that maternal vaccination or immunoprophylaxis against RSV will have a larger impact on RSV-related mortality in the community than in-hospital. This case series of RSV-related community deaths, made possible through global data sharing, allowed us to assess the potential impact of future RSV vaccines.

Deaths Attributed to Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Young Children in High-Mortality Rate Settings: Report from Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS)

Background

Lower respiratory tract infections are a leading cause of death in young children, but few studies have collected the specimens needed to define the role of specific causes. The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) platform aims to investigate causes of death in children aged <5 years in high–mortality rate settings, using postmortem minimally invasive tissue sampling and other advanced diagnostic techniques. We examined findings for deaths identified in CHAMPS sites in 7 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia to evaluate the role of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

Methods

We included deaths that occurred between December 2016 and December 2019. Panels determined causes of deaths by reviewing all available data including pathological results from minimally invasive tissue sampling, polymerase chain reaction screening for multiple infectious pathogens in lung tissue, nasopharyngeal swab, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid samples, clinical information from medical records, and verbal autopsies.

Results

We evaluated 1213 deaths, including 695 in neonates (aged <28 days), 283 in infants (28 days to <12 months), and 235 in children (12–59 months). RSV was detected in postmortem specimens in 67 of 1213 deaths (5.5%); in 24 deaths (2.0% of total), RSV was determined to be a cause of death, and it contributed to 5 other deaths. Younger infants (28 days to <6 months of age) accounted for half of all deaths attributed to RSV; 6.5% of all deaths in younger infants were attributed to RSV. RSV was the underlying and only cause in 4 deaths; the remainder (n = 20) had a median of 2 (range, 1–5) other conditions in the causal chain. Birth defects (n = 8) and infections with other pathogens (n = 17) were common comorbid conditions.

Conclusions

RSV is an important cause of child deaths, particularly in young infants. These findings add to the substantial body of literature calling for better treatment and prevention options for RSV in high–mortality rate settings.

Coding-Complete Sequence of a SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.25 Lineage Obtained from an 8-Day-Old Deceased Neonate

We report the complete genome sequence of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strain, hCoV-19/Bangladesh/icddrb-CHAMPS-BDAA02205/2021, obtained from a nasopharyngeal swab from a deceased neonate from Faridpur, Bangladesh. The strain belongs to lineage B.1.1.25 but contains some notable mutations similar to the B.1.1.7 lineage.

Seasonality of Date Palm Sap Feeding Behavior by Bats in Bangladesh

Pteropus bats are the natural reservoir for Nipah virus, and in Bangladesh, it is transmitted to people through consumption of raw or fermented date palm sap. Our objective was to understand seasonal patterns of bat feeding on date palm sap at a location where sap is collected year-round. Seven nights each month over three years, we mounted infrared cameras in four trees to observe bats' feeding behavior at date palm trees harvested for fermented sap production. We described the frequency of bat visits, duration of bat visits, and duration of bat-sap contact by month and by year. We captured 42,873 bat visits during 256 camera-nights of observation, of which 3% were Pteropus and 94% were non-Pteropus bats. Though the frequency of Pteropus bat visits to each tree/night was much lower than non-Pteropus bat visits, Pteropus bats stayed in contact with sap longer than non-Pteropus bats. Frequency of bat visits was higher during winter compared to other seasons, which may arise as a consequence of limited availability of food sources during this period or may be related to seasonal characteristics of the sap. Seasonal alignment of sap consumption by humans and bats may have consequences for viral spillover into humans.

Postmortem investigations and identification of multiple causes of child deaths: An analysis of findings from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network

BACKGROUND

The current burden of >5 million deaths yearly is the focus of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) to end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years old by 2030. To accelerate progression toward this goal, data are needed that accurately quantify the leading causes of death, so that interventions can target the common causes. By adding postmortem pathology and microbiology studies to other available data, the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network provides comprehensive evaluations of conditions leading to death, in contrast to standard methods that rely on data from medical records and verbal autopsy and report only a single underlying condition. We analyzed CHAMPS data to characterize the value of considering multiple causes of death.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We examined deaths identified from December 2016 through November 2020 from 7 CHAMPS sites (in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa), including 741 neonatal, 278 infant, and 241 child <5 years deaths for which results from Determination of Cause of Death (DeCoDe) panels were complete. DeCoDe panelists included all conditions in the causal chain according to the ICD-10 guidelines and assessed if prevention or effective management of the condition would have prevented the death. We analyzed the distribution of all conditions listed as causal, including underlying, antecedent, and immediate causes of death. Among 1,232 deaths with an underlying condition determined, we found a range of 0 to 6 (mean 1.5, IQR 0 to 2) additional conditions in the causal chain leading to death. While pathology provides very helpful clues, we cannot always be certain that conditions identified led to death or occurred in an agonal stage of death. For neonates, preterm birth complications (most commonly respiratory distress syndrome) were the most common underlying condition (n = 282, 38%); among those with preterm birth complications, 256 (91%) had additional conditions in causal chains, including 184 (65%) with a different preterm birth complication, 128 (45%) with neonatal sepsis, 69 (24%) with lower respiratory infection (LRI), 60 (21%) with meningitis, and 25 (9%) with perinatal asphyxia/hypoxia. Of the 278 infant deaths, 212 (79%) had ≥1 additional cause of death (CoD) beyond the underlying cause. The 2 most common underlying conditions in infants were malnutrition and congenital birth defects; LRI and sepsis were the most common additional conditions in causal chains, each accounting for approximately half of deaths with either underlying condition. Of the 241 child deaths, 178 (75%) had ≥1 additional condition. Among 46 child deaths with malnutrition as the underlying condition, all had ≥1 other condition in the causal chain, most commonly sepsis, followed by LRI, malaria, and diarrheal disease. Including all positions in the causal chain for neonatal deaths resulted in 19-fold and 11-fold increases in attributable roles for meningitis and LRI, respectively. For infant deaths, the proportion caused by meningitis and sepsis increased by 16-fold and 11-fold, respectively; for child deaths, sepsis and LRI are increased 12-fold and 10-fold, respectively. While comprehensive CoD determinations were done for a substantial number of deaths, there is potential for bias regarding which deaths in surveillance areas underwent minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), potentially reducing representativeness of findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Including conditions that appear anywhere in the causal chain, rather than considering underlying condition alone, markedly changed the proportion of deaths attributed to various diagnoses, especially LRI, sepsis, and meningitis. While CHAMPS methods cannot determine when 2 conditions cause death independently or may be synergistic, our findings suggest that considering the chain of events leading to death can better guide research and prevention priorities aimed at reducing child deaths.

Association of Biosecurity and Hygiene Practices with Environmental Contamination with Influenza A Viruses in Live Bird Markets, Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, live bird market environments are frequently contaminated with avian influenza viruses. Shop-level biosecurity practices might increase risk for environmental contamination. We sought to determine which shop-level biosecurity practices were associated with environmental contamination. We surveyed 800 poultry shops to describe biosecurity practices and collect environmental samples. Samples from 205 (26%) shops were positive for influenza A viral RNA, 108 (14%) for H9, and 60 (8%) for H5. Shops that slaughtered poultry, kept poultry overnight, remained open without rest days, had uneven muddy floors, held poultry on the floor, and housed sick and healthy poultry together were more frequently positive for influenza A viruses. Reported monthly cleaning seemed protective, but disinfection practices were not otherwise associated with influenza A virus detection. Slaughtering, keeping poultry overnight, weekly rest days, infrastructure, and disinfection practices could be targets for interventions to reduce environmental contamination.

Cost of illness for severe and non-severe diarrhea borne by households in a low-income urban community of Bangladesh: A cross-sectional study

The illness cost borne by households, known as out-of-pocket expenditure, was 74% of the total health expenditure in Bangladesh in 2017. Calculating economic burden of diarrhea of low-income urban community is important to identify potential cost savings strategies and prioritize policy decision to improve the quality of life of this population. This study aimed to estimate cost of illness and monthly percent expenditure borne by households due diarrhea in a low-income urban settlement of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We conducted this study in East Arichpur area of Tongi township in Dhaka, Bangladesh from September 17, 2015 to July 26, 2016. We used the World Health Organization (WHO) definition of three or more loose stool in 24 hours to enroll patients and enrolled 106 severe patients and 158 non-severe patients from Tongi General Hospital, local pharmacy and study community. The team enrolled patients between the first to third day of the illness (≤ 72 hours) and continued daily follow-up by phone until recovery. We considered direct and indirect costs to calculate cost-per-episode. We applied the published incidence rate to estimate the annual cost of diarrhea. The estimated average cost of illness for patient with severe diarrhea was US$ 27.39 [95% CI: 24.55, 30.23] (2,147 BDT), 17% of the average monthly income of the households. The average cost of illness for patient with non-severe diarrhea was US$ 6.36 [95% CI: 5.19, 7.55] (499 BDT), 4% of the average monthly income of households. A single diarrheal episode substantially affects financial condition of low-income urban community residents: a severe episode can cost almost equivalent to 4.35 days (17%) and a non-severe episode can cost almost equivalent to 1 day (4%) of household’s income. Preventing diarrhea preserves health and supports financial livelihoods.

The illness cost borne by households, known as out-of-pocket expenditure was 74% of the total health expenditure in Bangladesh in 2017. Most of the studies in Bangladesh that estimated the cost of diarrheal illness collected data from hospital patients and mostly targeted under-five children. Information on economic burden of diarrhea borne by households of low-income urban communities who commonly had ≤ 2 US$ dollar income per capita per day still remained unknown. We conducted this study in East Arichpur area of Tongi township in Dhaka, Bangladesh from September 2015 to July 2016 to estimate cost of illness and monthly percent expenditure borne by households due diarrhea in a low-income urban settlement of Dhaka, Bangladesh. The estimated average cost of illness for patient with severe diarrhea was US$ 27.39 (2,147 BDT) and non-severe diarrhea was US$ 6.36 (499 BDT). A single diarrheal episode substantially affects financial capability of the low-income urban community: a severe episode can cost 4.35 days (17%) and a non-severe episode can cost 1 day (4%) of income of a households. Preventing diarrhea preserves health and supports financial livelihoods.

Setting a Course for Preventing Hepatitis E in Low and Lower-Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review of Burden and Risk Factors

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is responsible for outbreaks of acute jaundice in Africa and Asia, many of which occur among displaced people or in crisis settings. Although an efficacious vaccine for HEV has been developed, we lack key epidemiologic data needed to understand how best to use the vaccine for hepatitis E control in endemic countries.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of articles published on hepatitis E in low-income and lower-middle-income countries in Africa and Asia. We searched PubMed, Scopus, and Embase databases to identify articles with data on anti-HEV immunoglobulin (Ig)G seroprevalence, outbreaks of HEV, or risk factors for HEV infection, disease, or death, and all relevant data were extracted. Using these data we describe the evidence around temporal and geographical distribution of HEV transmission and burden. We estimated pooled age-specific seroprevalence and assessed the consistency in risk factor estimates.

RESULTS

We extracted data from 148 studies. Studies assessing anti-HEV IgG antibodies used 18 different commercial assays. Most cases of hepatitis E during outbreaks were not confirmed. Risk factor data suggested an increased likelihood of current or recent HEV infection and disease associated with fecal-oral transmission of HEV, as well as exposures to blood and animals.

CONCLUSIONS

Heterogeneity in diagnostic assays used and exposure and outcome assessment methods hinder public health efforts to quantify burden of disease and evaluate interventions over time and space. Prevention tools such as vaccines are available, but they require a unified global strategy for hepatitis E control to justify widespread use.

Curating and translating the evidence about SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 for frontline public health and clinical care: The Novel Coronavirus Research Compendium (NCRC)

The public health crisis created by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has spurred a deluge of scientific research aimed at informing public health and medical response to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, those working in frontline public health and clinical care had insufficient time to parse the rapidly evolving evidence and use it for decision making. Academics in public health and medicine were well-placed to translate the evidence for use by frontline clinicians and public health practitioners. The Novel Coronavirus Research Compendium (NCRC), a group of >50 faculty and trainees, began in March 2020 with the goal to quickly triage and review the large volume of preprints and peer-reviewed publications on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19, and to summarize the most important, novel evidence to inform pandemic response. From April 6, 2020 through January 1, 2021, 54,192 papers and preprints were screened by NCRC teams and 527 were selected for review and uploaded to the NCRC website for public consumption. The majority of papers reviewed were peer-reviewed publications (n=395, 75%), published in 102 journals; 25% (n=132) of papers reviewed were of preprints. The NCRC is a successful model of how academics can support practitioners by translating scientific knowledge into action and help to build capacity among students for this work. This approach could be used for health problems beyond COVID-19, but the effort is resource intensive and may not be sustainable over the long term.

Maximizing and evaluating the impact of test-trace-isolate programs: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Test-trace-isolate programs are an essential part of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control that offer a more targeted approach than many other nonpharmaceutical interventions. Effective use of such programs requires methods to estimate their current and anticipated impact.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We present a mathematical modeling framework to evaluate the expected reductions in the reproductive number, R, from test-trace-isolate programs. This framework is implemented in a publicly available R package and an online application. We evaluated the effects of completeness in case detection and contact tracing and speed of isolation and quarantine using parameters consistent with COVID-19 transmission (R0: 2.5, generation time: 6.5 days). We show that R is most sensitive to changes in the proportion of cases detected in almost all scenarios, and other metrics have a reduced impact when case detection levels are low (<30%). Although test-trace-isolate programs can contribute substantially to reducing R, exceptional performance across all metrics is needed to bring R below one through test-trace-isolate alone, highlighting the need for comprehensive control strategies. Results from this model also indicate that metrics used to evaluate performance of test-trace-isolate, such as the proportion of identified infections among traced contacts, may be misleading. While estimates of the impact of test-trace-isolate are sensitive to assumptions about COVID-19 natural history and adherence to isolation and quarantine, our qualitative findings are robust across numerous sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Effective test-trace-isolate programs first need to be strong in the "test" component, as case detection underlies all other program activities. Even moderately effective test-trace-isolate programs are an important tool for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and can alleviate the need for more restrictive social distancing measures.

Hospital-based Surveillance for Pediatric Norovirus Gastroenteritis in Bangladesh, 2012-2016

BACKGROUND

Globally, noroviruses are recognized as an important cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE), but data from low and middle-income countries are limited.

AIMS

To examine the epidemiology and strain diversity of norovirus infections among children hospitalized for AGE in Bangladesh.

METHODS

We implemented active surveillance of children <5 years of age hospitalized with AGE at 8 geographically dispersed tertiary care hospitals in Bangladesh from July 2012 to June 2016. We tested random samples of AGE cases stratified by site and age group for norovirus by real-time RT-PCR. Noro-positive specimens were genotyped. Coinfection with rotavirus was assessed based on prior EIA testing.

RESULTS

We enrolled 5622 total AGE cases, of which 1008 were tested for norovirus. Total of 137 (14%) AGE cases tested positive for norovirus (range, 11%-17% by site). Most (94%) norovirus-associated hospitalizations were among children less than 2 years of age. Norovirus was detected year-round, with higher detection from March to June (20%-38%) and November to January (9%-18%). Genogroup II (GII) noroviruses were detected in 96% of cases, and the most frequent genotypes were GII.4 Sydney [P4 New Orleans] (33%), GII.3 [P16] (20%), and GII.4 Sydney [P16] (11%). The proportion of norovirus-positive specimens was significantly greater among rotavirus-negative AGE patients compared with rotavirus-positive AGE patients (27% vs. 5%, P < 0.001). As measured by the Vesikari severity score, a similar proportion of norovirus and rotavirus positive AGE patients were considered severe (68% vs. 70%, P = 0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

Norovirus is an important cause of AGE hospitalization in Bangladeshi children with most infections caused by GII viruses.

A Framework to Monitor Changes in Transmission and Epidemiology of Emerging Pathogens: Lessons From Nipah Virus

It is of uttermost importance that the global health community develops the surveillance capability to effectively monitor emerging zoonotic pathogens that constitute a major and evolving threat for human health. In this study, we propose a comprehensive framework to measure changes in (1) spillover risk, (2) interhuman transmission, and (3) morbidity/mortality associated with infections based on 6 epidemiological key indicators derived from routine surveillance. We demonstrate the indicators' value for the retrospective or real-time assessment of changes in transmission and epidemiological characteristics using data collected through a long-standing, systematic, hospital-based surveillance system for Nipah virus in Bangladesh. We show that although interhuman transmission and morbidity/mortality indicators were stable, the number and geographic extent of spillovers varied significantly over time. This combination of systematic surveillance and active tracking of transmission and epidemiological indicators should be applied to other high-risk emerging pathogens to prevent public health emergencies.

Changing Contact Patterns Over Disease Progression: Nipah Virus as a Case Study

Contact patterns play a key role in disease transmission, and variation in contacts during the course of illness can influence transmission, particularly when accompanied by changes in host infectiousness. We used surveys among 1642 contacts of 94 Nipah virus case patients in Bangladesh to determine how contact patterns (physical and with bodily fluids) changed as disease progressed in severity. The number of contacts increased with severity and, for case patients who died, peaked on the day of death. Given transmission has only been observed among fatal cases of Nipah virus infection, our findings suggest that changes in contact patterns during illness contribute to risk of infection.

Rumor surveillance in support of minimally invasive tissue sampling for diagnosing the cause of child death in low-income countries: A qualitative study

In low-and middle-income countries, determining the cause of death of any given individual is impaired by poor access to healthcare systems, resource-poor diagnostic facilities, and limited acceptance of complete diagnostic autopsies. Minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), an innovative post-mortem procedure based on obtaining tissue specimens using fine needle biopsies suitable for laboratory analysis, is an acceptable proxy of the complete diagnostic autopsy, and thus could reduce the uncertainty of cause of death. This study describes rumor surveillance activities developed and implemented in Bangladesh, Mali, and Mozambique to identify, track and understand rumors about the MITS procedure. Our surveillance activities included observations and interviews with stakeholders to understand how rumors are developed and spread and to anticipate rumors in the program areas. We also engaged young volunteers, local stakeholders, community leaders, and study staff to report rumors being spread in the community after MITS launch. Through community meetings, we also managed and responded to rumors. When a rumor was reported, the field team purposively conducted interviews and group discussions to track, verify and understand the rumor. From July 2016 through April 2018, the surveillance identified several rumors including suspicions of organs being harvested or transplanted; MITS having been performed on a living child, and concerns related to disrespecting the body and mistrust related to the study purpose. These rumors, concerns, and cues of mistrust were passed by word of mouth. We managed the rumors by modifying the consent protocol and giving additional information and support to the bereaved family and to the community members. Rumor surveillance was critical for anticipating and readily identifying rumors and managing them. Setting up rumor surveillance by engaging community residents, stakeholders, and volunteers could be an essential part of any public health program where there is a need to identify and react in real-time to public concern.

The Ecology of Nipah Virus in Bangladesh: A Nexus of Land-Use Change and Opportunistic Feeding Behavior in Bats

Nipah virus is a bat-borne paramyxovirus that produces yearly outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in Bangladesh. Understanding the ecological conditions that lead to spillover from bats to humans can assist in designing effective interventions. To investigate the current and historical processes that drive Nipah spillover in Bangladesh, we analyzed the relationship among spillover events and climatic conditions, the spatial distribution and size of Pteropus medius roosts, and patterns of land-use change in Bangladesh over the last 300 years. We found that 53% of annual variation in winter spillovers is explained by winter temperature, which may affect bat behavior, physiology, and human risk behaviors. We infer from changes in forest cover that a progressive shift in bat roosting behavior occurred over hundreds of years, producing the current system where a majority of P. medius populations are small (median of 150 bats), occupy roost sites for 10 years or more, live in areas of high human population density, and opportunistically feed on cultivated food resources-conditions that promote viral spillover. Without interventions, continuing anthropogenic pressure on bat populations similar to what has occurred in Bangladesh could result in more regular spillovers of other bat viruses, including Hendra and Ebola viruses.

Inference of Nipah virus evolution, 1999-2015

Despite near-annual human outbreaks of Nipah virus (NiV) disease in Bangladesh, typically due to individual spillover events from the local bat population, only twenty whole-genome NiV sequences exist from humans and ten from bats. NiV whole-genome sequences from annual outbreaks have been challenging to generate, primarily due to the low viral load in human throat swab and serum specimens. Here, we used targeted enrichment with custom NiV-specific probes and generated thirty-five additional unique full-length genomic sequences directly from human specimens and viral isolates. We inferred the temporal and geographic evolutionary history of NiV in Bangladesh and expanded a tool to visualize NiV spatio-temporal spread from a Bayesian continuous diffusion analysis. We observed that strains from Bangladesh segregated into two distinct clades that have intermingled geographically in Bangladesh over time and space. As these clades expanded geographically and temporally, we did not observe evidence for significant branch and site-specific selection, except for a single site in the Henipavirus L polymerase. However, the Bangladesh 1 and 2 clades are differentiated by mutations initially occurring in the polymerase, with additional mutations accumulating in the N, G, F, P, and L genes on external branches. Modeling the historic geographical and temporal spread demonstrates that while widespread, NiV does not exhibit significant genetic variation in Bangladesh. Thus, future public health measures should address whether NiV within in the bat population also exhibits comparable genetic variation, if zoonotic transmission results in a genetic bottleneck and if surveillance techniques are detecting only a subset of NiV.

1377. Perinatal Transmission Dynamics of Antimicrobial Resistance

Background

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global health threat that disproportionately affects low- and middle-income countries. An ongoing study of childhood mortality in Bangladesh revealed a common cause of death among neonates is sepsis from Gram-negative multi-drug-resistant organisms.

Methods

To ascertain factors leading to neonatal exposure, we enrolled 100 women presenting for delivery to Faridpur Hospital during February-March 2020. We collected vaginal and rectal swabs from mothers on presentation and at least 24 hours after delivery as well as rectal swabs from newborns. Swabs were plated on chromogenic agars selective for extended-spectrum-beta-lactamase-(ESBL) producing organisms and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE).

Results

Eight-five percent of women underwent C-section. Prior to delivery, ESBL organisms were isolated from 15% of vaginal and 63% of rectal swabs. CRE was detected in 2% of vaginal and 8% of rectal swabs. Following delivery, colonization exceeded 90% (ESBL) and 70% (CRE) in both swab sets. Similarly, among newborns, 85% were colonized with ESBL and 67% with CRE. Maternal AMR colonization on admission did not correlate with income, education, parity, prenatal care, or prior antibiotic use, but was associated with hospitalization during pregnancy (rectal CRE OR 11.9, p&lt; 0.01). Maternal colonization at discharge was positively associated with membrane stripping (vaginal ESBL OR 9.0, p&lt; 0.01; rectal CRE OR 5.0, p=0.03), C-section (OR 4.0-15.4, p&lt; 0.05), and administration of third-generation cephalosporins (OR 5.0-10.1, p&lt; 0.05). Newborn colonization correlated with maternal colonization on discharge (p&lt; 0.005) but not on admission. Among newborns delivered by C-section, there was an 8-9-fold increased risk of ESBL and CRE colonization (p&lt; 0.01).

Conclusion

These results demonstrate that AMR is driven by nosocomial factors in the perinatal setting, and invasive procedures and perinatal antibiotic use increase risk of AMR colonization. These findings emphasize the urgent need for enhanced antibiotic stewardship and infection prevention and control practices to preserve the benefits of hospital-based deliveries.

Disclosures

All Authors: No reported disclosures

Vibrio cholerae O1 transmission in Bangladesh: insights from a nationally representative serosurvey

BACKGROUND

Pandemic Vibrio cholerae from cholera-endemic countries around the Bay of Bengal regularly seed epidemics globally. Without reducing cholera in these countries, including Bangladesh, global cholera control might never be achieved. Little is known about the geographical distribution and magnitude of V cholerae O1 transmission nationally. We aimed to describe infection risk across Bangladesh, making use of advances in cholera seroepidemiology, therefore overcoming many of the limitations of current clinic-based surveillance.

METHODS

We tested serum samples from a nationally representative serosurvey in Bangladesh with eight V cholerae-specific assays. Using these data with a machine-learning model previously validated within a cohort of confirmed cholera cases and their household contacts, we estimated the proportion of the population with evidence of infection by V cholerae O1 in the previous year (annual seroincidence) and used Bayesian geostatistical models to create high-resolution national maps of infection risk.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 16, 2015, and Jan 24, 2016, we obtained and tested serum samples from 2930 participants (707 households) in 70 communities across Bangladesh. We estimated national annual seroincidence of V cholerae O1 infection of 17·3% (95% CI 10·5-24·1). Our high-resolution maps showed large heterogeneity of infection risk, with community-level annual infection risk within the sampled population ranging from 4·3% to 62·9%. Across Bangladesh, we estimated that 28·1 (95% CI 17·1-39·2) million infections occurred in the year before the survey. Despite having an annual seroincidence of V cholerae O1 infection lower than much of Bangladesh, Dhaka (the capital of Bangladesh and largest city in the country) had 2·0 (95% CI 0·6-3·9) million infections during the same year, primarily because of its large population.

INTERPRETATION

Serosurveillance provides an avenue for identifying areas with high V cholerae O1 transmission and investigating key risk factors for infection across geographical scales. Serosurveillance could serve as an important method for countries to plan and monitor progress towards 2030 cholera elimination goals.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Human exposures to by-products from animals suspected to have died of anthrax in Bangladesh: An exploratory study

Anthrax is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis that is considered endemic in Bangladesh, where cases among animals and people have been reported almost annually since 2009. Contaminated by-products from animals are suspected to play a role in transmission to people, but minimal information is known on the supply chain of these potentially contaminated products. Between April 2013 and May 2016, we conducted a qualitative study in 17 villages located in five districts in Bangladesh, which had experienced suspected anthrax outbreaks. The study explored how by-products from suspected animal cases were collected, discarded, processed, distributed and used by people. We conducted open-ended interviews, group discussions and unstructured observations of people's exposure to animal by-products. The practice of slaughtering acutely ill domestic ruminants before they died was common. Respondents reported that moribund animals were typically butchered, and the waste products were discarded in nearby rivers, ditches, bamboo bushes, or on privately owned land. Regardless of health status before death, very few carcasses were buried, and none were incinerated or burned. The hides were reportedly used to make wallets, belts, shoes, balls and clothing. Discarded bones were often ground into granular and powder forms to produce bone meal and fertilizer. Therefore, given anthrax is endemic in the study region, livestock with acute onset of fatal disease or found dead with no known cause of death may be an anthrax case and subsequently pose a health risk to those involved in the collection and processing of the carcass, as well as the end-user of these products. Improved bio-security practices and safe carcass disposal measures could reduce the risk of human exposure, but resource and other constraints make implementation a challenge. Therefore, targeting at-risk animal populations for vaccination may be the most effective strategy to reduce anthrax outbreaks, protect the supply chain and reduce the risk of exposure to B. anthracis.

Nipah virus dynamics in bats and implications for spillover to humans

Nipah virus (NiV) is an emerging bat-borne zoonotic virus that causes near-annual outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in South Asia-one of the most populous regions on Earth. In Bangladesh, infection occurs when people drink date-palm sap contaminated with bat excreta. Outbreaks are sporadic, and the influence of viral dynamics in bats on their temporal and spatial distribution is poorly understood. We analyzed data on host ecology, molecular epidemiology, serological dynamics, and viral genetics to characterize spatiotemporal patterns of NiV dynamics in its wildlife reservoir, Pteropus medius bats, in Bangladesh. We found that NiV transmission occurred throughout the country and throughout the year. Model results indicated that local transmission dynamics were modulated by density-dependent transmission, acquired immunity that is lost over time, and recrudescence. Increased transmission followed multiyear periods of declining seroprevalence due to bat-population turnover and individual loss of humoral immunity. Individual bats had smaller host ranges than other Pteropus species (spp.), although movement data and the discovery of a Malaysia-clade NiV strain in eastern Bangladesh suggest connectivity with bats east of Bangladesh. These data suggest that discrete multiannual local epizootics in bat populations contribute to the sporadic nature of NiV outbreaks in South Asia. At the same time, the broad spatial and temporal extent of NiV transmission, including the recent outbreak in Kerala, India, highlights the continued risk of spillover to humans wherever they may interact with pteropid bats and the importance of limiting opportunities for spillover throughout Pteropus's range.