Barrett's oesophagus: epidemiology, cancer risk and implications for management

Cancer risk by length of Barrett's esophagus in Japanese population: a nationwide multicenter retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The cancer risk for each length of Barrett's esophagus (BE) in Japanese is unknown. This nationwide, multi-institutional study aims to clarify the cancer risk by length of BE in the general Japanese population.

METHODS

Consecutive subjects who underwent upper endoscopic screening at 17 centers between 2013 and 2017 and had at least one follow-up endoscopy by December 2022 were included. The presence/absence of BE and, if present, its length were retrospectively assessed using the retrieved endoscopic images recorded at baseline. Information on the subsequent occurrence of esophageal adenocarcinoma and other upper gastrointestinal cancers was also collected. Cancer incidence was calculated and expressed as %/year.

RESULTS

A total of 33,478 subjects were enrolled, and 17,884 (53.4%), 10,641 (31.8%), 4889 (14.6%), and 64 (0.2%) were diagnosed as absent BE, BE < 1 cm, 1-3 cm, and ≥ 3 cm, respectively. During a median follow-up of 80 months, 11 cases of esophageal adenocarcinoma developed. The annual incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma is 0%/year for absent BE, 0.0032 (0.00066-0.013)%/year for BE < 1 cm, 0.026 (0.011-0.054)%/year for 1-3 cm, and 0.58 (0.042-2.11)%/year for ≥ 3 cm, respectively. Meanwhile, the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and gastric cancer were 0.039 (0.031-0.049)%/year and 0.16 (0.14-0.18)%/year, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

By enrolling a large number of subjects with long-term follow-up, this study demonstrated that the risk of cancer increased steadily with increasing length of BE in the Japanese population. Therefore, it is important to consider the length of BE when determining the management strategy for BE.

All-reflective tethered capsule endoscope for multimodal optical coherence tomography in the esophagus

Significance

Esophageal cancer is becoming increasingly prevalent in Western countries. Early detection is crucial for effective treatment. Multimodal imaging combining optical coherence tomography (OCT) with complementary optical imaging techniques may provide enhanced diagnostic capabilities by simultaneously assessing tissue morphology and biochemical content.

Aim

We aim to develop a tethered capsule endoscope (TCE) that can accommodate a variety of point-scanning techniques in addition to OCT without requiring design iterations on the optical or mechanical design.

Approach

We propose a TCE utilizing exclusively reflective optics to focus and steer light from and to a double-clad fiber. Specifically, we use an ellipsoidal mirror to achieve finite conjugation between the fiber tip and the imaging plane.

Results

We demonstrate a functional all-reflective TCE. We first detail the design, fabrication, and assembly steps required to obtain such a device. We then characterize its performance and demonstrate combined OCT at 1300 nm and visible spectroscopic imaging in the 500- to 700-nm range. Finally, we discuss the advantages and limitations of the proposed design.

Conclusions

An all-reflective TCE is feasible and allows for achromatic high-quality imaging. Such a device could be utilized as a platform for testing various combinations of modalities to identify the optimal candidates without requiring design iterations.

Etiologic factors for Barrett's esophagus: toward countermeasures in Asia

INTRODUCTION

Over the past several decades, Europe and the United States have experienced a rapid increase in esophageal adenocarcinoma. Research and countermeasures against Barrett's esophagus, its precancerous lesion, are progressing. Because esophageal adenocarcinoma has an extremely poor prognosis when diagnosed in an advanced stage, recommendations for early cancer detection have been made based on the various proven etiological factors of Barrett's esophagus and the actual cancer risk of Barrett's esophagus. In recent years, there have been indications of an increase in esophageal adenocarcinoma in Japan, and a similar trend of cancer will occur shortly in other Asian countries. Consequently, Asian countries must implement similar countermeasures against Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma, referencing the knowledge gained thus far in Europe and the United States.

AREAS COVERED

This review summarizes the latest findings on the etiologic factors of Barrett's esophagus and discusses the differences between Westerners and Asians. The current status of Barrett's esophagus in Japan and other Asian countries is also summarized.

EXPERT OPINION

The etiological factors and cancer incidence of Barrett's esophagus in Asia diverge somewhat from those observed in Europe and America. Therefore, it is imperative to implement measures that are tailored to the actual circumstances of Asian people.

Disproportionate cancer worries in ultra-short-segment Barrett's esophagus in Japan

Objectives

Although Barrett's esophagus (BE), especially ultra-short-segment BE (USSBE), is very frequently diagnosed in Japan, how subjects feel about receiving a diagnosis of BE is unclear. We therefore prospectively investigated cancer worry in subjects who received a BE diagnosis.

Methods

Self-administered questionnaires were sent to subjects who were diagnosed with BE at three health checkup institutes in Akita Prefecture, Japan. The cancer worry scale (CWS) was used to quantitatively assess the fear of developing cancer. The BE subjects were classified into USSBE <1 cm and non-USSBE ≥1 cm groups. Factors associated with the CWS were investigated using logistic regression analyses.

Results

A total of 325 (31%) subjects, comprising 229 USSBE and 96 non-USSBE patients were included in this study. Compared with the USSBE group, the non-USSBE group had a significantly higher frequency of a history of a BE diagnosis and perception of carcinogenesis. However, the CWS was similar between the USSBE and non-USSBE groups, with a median CWS of 12.5 (3.75) versus 12.7 (3.65). A multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that while positive reflux symptoms were significantly associated with a positive CWS, the BE length was not significantly associated with it, with an odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.3 (0.75-2.2).

Conclusions

A BE diagnosis promotes a similar level of worry about cancer among subjects, irrespective of the length of BE. In Japan, since USSBE poses a much lower cancer risk than non-USSBE, the former may frequently be associated with a disproportionate cancer worry relative to the latter. (UMIN000044010).

Prevalence and associated factors of worry for cancer in patients with a Barrett's esophagus

Although the risk of cancer progression in a Barrett's esophagus (BE) is very low, worrying about cancer is known as an important factor affecting HRQoL. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of BE patients with high levels of worry for cancer, to compare outcomes of patients endoscopically treated for BE neoplasia (DBE), non-dysplastic BE patients (NDBE) and patients with reflux symptoms, and to examine associated factors. We performed a cross sectional, exploratory, self-administered questionnaire study using the cancer worry scale, and the reflux disease questionnaire. A total of 192 DBE patients, 213 NDBE patients and 111 refractory reflux symptom patients were included from October 2019 until July 2021, 76.8% of BE participants were male and aged 66.9 years. High cancer worry was reported in 40.6% of the DBE patients and 36.2% of NDBE patient. Reflux patients scored statistically significant worse with 56.6% stated high cancer worry. Positive correlations were found between reflux symptoms and cancer worry in NDBE patients and reflux patients. In DBE patients' negative correlations were found between higher cancer worry and younger age as well as a family history of esophageal carcinoma. A clinically significant group of BE patients reported high cancer worry, which was associated with reflux symptoms in NDBE patients and a younger age and a (family) history of esophageal carcinoma diagnosis in BE patients treated for (early) neoplasia. Physicians should communicate about the actual cancer risk, which leads to greater patient understanding and therefore may have a positive impact on health outcomes.

The Role of Mucin Expression in the Diagnosis of Oesophago-Gastric Cancer: A Systematic Literature Review

Survival in oesophago-gastric cancer (OGC) is poor due to early diagnostic challenges. Non-invasive risk stratification may identify susceptible patients with pre-malignant or benign disease. Following diagnostic confirmation with endoscopic biopsy, early OGC may be treated sooner. Mucins are transmembrane glycoproteins implicated in OGC with potential use as biomarkers of malignant transformation. This systematic review defines the role of mucins in OGC diagnosis. A literature search of MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase and Cochrane databases was performed following PRISMA protocols for studies published January 1960-December 2022. Demographic data and data on mucin sampling and analysis methods were extracted. The review included 124 studies (n = 11,386 patients). Gastric adenocarcinoma (GAc) was the commonest OG malignancy (n = 101) followed by oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAc, n = 24) and squamous cell carcinoma (OSqCc, n = 10). Mucins MUC1, MUC2, MUC5AC and MUC6 were the most frequently implicated. High MUC1 expression correlated with poorer prognosis and metastases in OSqCc. MUC2 expression decreases during progression from healthy mucosa to OAc, causing reduced protection from gastric acid. MUC5AC was upregulated, and MUC6 downregulated in GAc. Mucin expression varies in OGC; changes may be epigenetic or mutational. Profiling upper GI mucin expression in OGC, with pre-malignant, benign and healthy controls may identify potential early diagnostic biomarkers.

Professionals' views on the justification for esophageal adenocarcinoma screening: A systematic literature search and qualitative analysis

Screening for early esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), including screening for its precursor Barrett's esophagus (BE), has the potential to reduce EAC-related mortality and morbidity. This literature review aimed to explore professionals' views on the justification for EAC screening. A systematic search of Ovid Medline, EMBASE, and PsycInfo, from January 1, 2000 to September 22, 2022, identified 5 original studies and 63 expert opinion articles reporting professionals' perspectives on EAC screening. Included articles were qualitatively analyzed using the framework method, which was deductively led by modernized screening principles. The analyses showed that many professionals are optimistic about technological advancements in BE detection and treatment. However, views on whether the societal burden of EAC merits screening were contradictory. In addition, knowledge of the long-term benefits and risks of EAC screening is still considered insufficient. There is no consensus on who to screen, how often to screen, which screening test to use, and how to manage non-dysplastic BE. Professionals further point out the need to develop technology that facilitates automated test sample processing and public education strategies that avoid causing disproportionately high cancer worry and social stigma. In conclusion, modernized screening principles are currently insufficiently fulfilled to justify widespread screening for EAC. Results from future clinical screening trials and risk prediction modeling studies may shift professionals' thoughts regarding justification for EAC screening.

Adiposity and sex-specific cancer risk

Obesity is associated with several types of cancer and fat distribution, which differs dramatically between sexes, has been suggested to be an independent risk factor. However, sex-specific effects on cancer risk have rarely been studied. Here we estimate the effects of fat accumulation and distribution on cancer risk in females and males. We performed a prospective study in 442,519 UK Biobank participants, for 19 cancer types and additional histological subtypes, with a mean follow-up time of 13.4 years. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the effect of 14 different adiposity phenotypes on cancer rates, and a 5% false discovery rate was considered statistically significant. Adiposity-related traits are associated with all but three cancer types, and fat accumulation is associated with a larger number of cancers compared to fat distribution. In addition, fat accumulation or distribution exhibit differential effects between sexes on colorectal, esophageal, and liver cancer.

Augmented CPT1A Expression Is Associated with Proliferation and Colony Formation during Barrett’s Tumorigenesis

Obesity is a known risk factor for the development of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), Barrett’s Esophagus (BE) and the progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma. The mechanisms by which obesity contributes to GERD, BE and its progression are currently not well understood. Recently, changes in lipid metabolism especially in the context of a high fat diet have been linked to GERD and BE leading us to explore whether fatty acid oxidation plays a role in the disease progression from GERD to esophageal adenocarcinoma. To that end, we analyzed the expression of the rate-limiting enzyme, carnitine palmytoyltransferase 1A (CPT1A), in human tissues and cell lines representing different stages in the sequence from normal squamous esophagus to cancer. We determined uptake of palmitic acid, the most abundant fatty acid in human serum, with fluorescent dye-labeled lipids as well as functional consequences of stimulation with palmitic acid relevant to Barrett’s tumorigenesis, e.g., proliferation, characteristics of stemness and IL8 mediated inflammatory signaling. We further employed different mouse models including a genetic model of Barrett’s esophagus based on IL1β overexpression in the presence and absence of a high fat diet and deoxycholic acid to physiologically mimic gastrointestinal reflux in the mice. Together, our data demonstrate that CPT1A is upregulated in Barrett’s tumorigenesis and that experimental palmitic acid is delivered to mitochondria and associated with increased cell proliferation and stem cell marker expression.

Low risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma among patients with ultrashort-segment Barrett's esophagus in Japan

OBJECTS

Ultrashort-segment Barrett's esophagus (USSBE; length of <1 cm) is very frequently diagnosed in Japan, but the cancer risk of USSBE is unknown. In this study, by retrieving endoscopic images, we retrospectively investigated the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) by the grade of Barrett's esophagus (BE) and compared the findings with those of gastric cancer by the degree of endoscopic gastric atrophy in the same population.

METHODS

Among consecutive participants who had undergone endoscopy for an annual health checkup in 2014, the 9121 who had received at least one follow-up endoscopy by December 2020 were enrolled in this study. Using the retrieved endoscopic images, we retrospectively evaluated BE and gastric atrophy. Information on the subsequent occurrence of EAC and gastric cancer as of December 2020 was also collected. The incidence of cancer by the extent of BE and gastric atrophy was calculated and expressed as the percentage per year.

RESULTS

On reviewing the endoscopic image in 2014, 4190 (45.9%) were found to have been diagnosed with BE, of whom 3318 (36.4%) were judged to have USSBE. During an observation period of 54.1 (17.9) months, 89 gastric cancers and only two EACs were identified. The incidence of EAC in USSBE was 0.0068%/year, which was nearly as low as the incidence of gastric cancer in atrophy-free patients (0.0068% vs. 0.0059%/year).

CONCLUSIONS

Although the prevalence of USSBE is quite high (36.4%), the incidence of EAC in USSBE is very low (0.0068%/year). Accordingly, USSBE can be excluded from targets for endoscopic surveillance in Japan.

Cystathionine β-synthase expression correlates with tumor development and poor prognosis in patients with adenocarcinoma of the gastroesophageal junction

OBJECTIVES

To reveal the expression level of cystathionine β-synthase (CBS) in adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction (AEG) and discuss the relationship between CBS expression level and tumor microvascular density (MVD), clinical features and prognosis.

METHODS

Paraffin samples from 214 patients with AEG were selected to make pathological microchips. Immunohistochemistry was performed based on the microchips to detect the expression level of CBS and microvascular density (MVD) in cancer tissues and adjacent control tissues. Relationships between expression level of CBS and MVD, clinical characteristics and prognosis were analyzed.

RESULTS

In total, 214 AEG cases were classified into three groups: CBS negative staining (n=26), low staining (n=44), and high staining (n=144). Quantitative alterations in CBS and CD31 expression were explored using immunohistochemistry. The 5-year recurrence rate of enrolled patients was followed up and found that CBS expression was significantly increased in tumor tissue compared with adjacent non-tumor tissue (P<0.0001). There were significant differences in microvascular density between the groups with negative and high CBS staining (P<0.0001), and between the groups with low and high CBS staining (P<0.0001). Univariate analysis revealed significant differences in tumor stage (P<0.0001), T stage (P=0.008), N stage (P=0.028), differentiation degree (P=0.037), and 5-year survival (P=0.0034) among the three groups. Multivariate logic regression analysis showed that increased CBS scores were associated with an increased probability of 5-year recurrence (P=0.018). Finally, different CBS expression levels were associated with disease-free survival in AEG patients.

CONCLUSIONS

CBS expression level is closely related to microvascular density and tumor stage in AEG. High level of CBS not only accelerates tumor angiogenesis but also affects patient's survival and prognosis.

Current status of surveillance for Barrett's esophagus in Japan and the West

Prospective studies in western countries have shown that the obvious risk factors for Barrett's esophageal cancer are male sex, smoking habit, a longer length of Barrett's esophagus, and low‐grade dysplasia. However, few reports have prospectively examined risk factors for adenocarcinoma development from Barrett's esophagus in Japan. In the West, where adenocarcinoma is common among esophageal cancer, endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's esophagus every 2–5 years is recommended for early detection of adenocarcinoma. However, there is no established surveillance method in Japan. In recent years, the incidence of adenocarcinoma from long‐segment Barrett's esophagus and short‐segment Barrett's esophagus longer than 2 cm in Japan has been reported to be similar to the West. For surveillance of adenocarcinoma arising from Barrett's esophagus, recognizing the characteristics of superficial adenocarcinoma and carefully observing the entire Barrett's esophagus are needed. It has been reported that representative characteristics of Barrett's adenocarcinoma are a reddish area or a lesion located on the anterior to the right sidewall. It is necessary to establish surveillance methods for Barrett's esophagus sooner in Japan.

Today’s Mistakes and Tomorrow’s Wisdom… In Barrett’s Surveillance

<b><i>Background:</i></b> Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is the only known precursor lesion of esophageal adenocarcinoma, a malignancy with increasing incidence and poor survival rates. To reduce mortality, regular endoscopic surveillance of BE patients is recommended to detect neoplasia in an (endoscopically) curable stage. In this review, we aim to provide an overview of current BE surveillance strategies, its pitfalls, and potential future directions to optimize BE surveillance. <b><i>Summary:</i></b> Several societal guidelines provide surveillance strategies. However, when practicing those endoscopies multiple drawbacks are encountered. Important challenges are time-consuming biopsy protocols with low adherence rates, biopsy sampling error, interobserver variability in endoscopic detection of lesions, and interobserver variability in diagnosis of dysplasia. Furthermore, the overall efficacy and cost-effectiveness of surveillance are questioned. Using novel techniques, such as artificial intelligence and personalized surveillance intervals, can help to overcome these obstacles. <b><i>Key Messages:</i></b> Currently, there is room for improvement in BE surveillance. Better risk-stratification is expected to reduce both patient and healthcare burdens. Personalized and dynamic surveillance intervals accompanied by novel techniques in detection and histopathological assessment of dysplasia may be tools for a change in the right direction.

Endoscopic Findings of Gastro-Esophageal Reflux Disease in Elderly and Younger Age Groups

Objective: To determine and compare the clinical features and endoscopic findings of gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD) in elderly and younger age groups. Materials and Methods: The clinical and endoscopic features were evaluated for all patients with GERD between January 2017 and September 2020. The criteria for inclusion were being aged over 65 and under 50 years and having an upper gastrointestinal endoscopy with reflux symptoms resistant to ppi theraphy. The exclusion criteria included prior surgery, age under 18 years, and pregnancy. The diagnosis of GERD was made according to the patients' symptoms. The SPSS 11.0 for Windows pocket program was used for statistical analysis. Results: Two hundred eighty-six patients aged over 65 years and 261 patients aged below 50 years were enrolled in this study. The mean age of the older group was 68.2 ± 4.5 years and the mean age of the young group was 38 ± 7.2 years. The male/female ratio was 5/3 and 2/1 in the young and older groups, respectively. The older patients had less severe and rare typical symptoms than the young patients. However, significantly more serious endoscopic findings were noted in the older patients compared with the younger patients. Conclusion: The older and young patients with GERD were predominantly male and typical reflux problems were less common in older patients with GERD. Older patients had more important endoscopic findings such as hernia, esophagitis, and cancer.

Long-term endoscopic surveillance for Barrett's esophagus in Japan: Multicenter prospective cohort study

OBJECTS

Although a recent study showed the cancer incidence of Barrett's esophagus (BE) to be 1.2%/year in 251 patient-years in Japan, the long-term outcomes remain unclear. The present study estimated the cancer risk of BE in Japan using our original prospective multicenter cohort.

METHODS

A total of 98 patients with BE of maximum length of ≥2 cm were enrolled during the period of 2010-2012 and received at least one follow-up endoscopy over 5 years thereafter. Cancer incidence rates with 95% confidence interval for occurrence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) were calculated as the number of events divided by patient-years of follow-up and were expressed as %/year.

RESULTS

Overall, the median endoscopic follow-up period was 59.9 (first and third quartiles, 48.5-60.8) months, constituting a total of 427 patient-years of observation. Since two EAC cases developed, the cancer incidence was 0.47% (0.01%-1.81%)/year. The cancer incidence was 0.39% (-0.16% to 2.44%) in 232 patient-years and 0.31% (-0.13% to 1.95%)/year in 318 patient-years for 55 cases with specialized intestinal metaplasia and 70 with BE ≥3 cm (maximum), respectively. At the end of follow-up, 12 of 92 patients (13.0%) died, but none died from EAC.

CONCLUSION

This is the largest prospective follow-up study with endoscopy to investigate the incidence of EAC in unequivocal BE with the maximum length of ≥2 cm in Japan. Although a further large-scale study will be required to validate our results, the cancer risk of BE in Japan would be lower than previously reported (0.47% vs 1.2%/year).

Nrf2/Keap1-Pathway Activation and Reduced Susceptibility to Chemotherapy Treatment by Acidification in Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Cells

Simple Summary

Inflammation caused by acidic reflux contributes to disease progression in Barrett’s esophagus. Little is known, whether esophageal cancer cells are influenced by acidic reflux and whether reflux influences cancer cell physiology, targeting the Nrf2/Kepa1- and the NFκB-pathway. The understanding mechanisms of the acidic susceptibility in cells from advanced stages of Barrett’s esophagus will provide further evidence, whether it should be prevented during chemotherapy for EAC treatment.

Abstract

Chronic acid reflux causes cellular damage and inflammation in the lower esophagus. Due to these irritating insults, the squamous epithelium is replaced by metaplastic epithelium, which is a risk factor for the development of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). In this study, we investigated the acid susceptibility in a Barrett’s cell culture in vitro model, using six cell lines, derived from squamous epithelium (EPC1 and EPC2), metaplasia (CP-A), dysplasia (CP-B), and EAC (OE33 and OE19) cells. Cells exposed to acidic pH showed a decreased viability dependent on time, pH, and progression status in the Barrett’s sequence, with the highest acid susceptibility in the squamous epithelium (EPC1 and EPC2), and the lowest in EAC cells. Acid pulsing was accompanied with an activation of the Nrf2/Keap1- and the NFκB-pathway, resulting in an increased expression of HO1—independent of the cellular context. OE33 showed a decreased responsiveness towards 5-FU, when the cells were grown in acidic conditions (pH 6 and pH 5.5). Our findings suggest a strong damage of squamous epithelium by gastroesophageal reflux, while Barrett’s dysplasia and EAC cells apparently exert acid-protective features, which lead to a cellular resistance against acid reflux.

Profile of the Change in Depression during Proton-Pump Inhibitor Therapy in Patients with Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease: Influence of the Mucosal Break

Given the frequent concomitance between depression and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), it is important to evaluate the change of depression in patients with GERD, especially considering the presence of esophageal mucosal breaks (MB). This study aimed to examine the change in the levels of depression in patients with GERD during proton-pump inhibitors (PPI) therapy. We designed a prospective cohort study to explore the profile of the alteration in depression with respect to the impact of esophageal MB. This study recruited 172 eligible patients with GERD between February 2016 and May 2018. The change in depression was defined as the difference between the respective Taiwanese Depression Questionnaire (TDQ) scores obtained at baseline and after PPI therapy. Multivariate linear regression models were used to estimate the factors associated with the change in depression. The results revealed statistically significant improvements in the TDQ score (mean score: baseline = 13.2, after PPI therapy = 10.9, p < 0.01, Cohen’s d = 0.30) during PPI therapy for GERD. Moreover, the MB was an independent variable associated with changes in the TDQ score [B = 3.31, 95% confidence interval (CI): (1.12, 5.51), p < 0.01] and the improvement in depression [odds ratio = 0.38, 95% CI: (0.17, 0.86), p = 0.02]. Our findings revealed that depressive symptoms improved slightly following PPI therapy. Moreover, MB was an unfavorable prognostic factor for the improvement in depression.

Wide-field endoscopic submucosal dissection for the treatment of Barrett's esophagus neoplasia

Background and study aims  Implementation of endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for the treatment of Barrett's esophagus neoplasia (BEN) has been hampered by high rates of positive margins and complications. Dissection with wider margins was proposed to overcome these problems, but was never tested. We aim to compare Wide-Field ESD (WF-ESD) with conventional ESD (C-ESD) for treatment of BEN. Patients and methods  This was a cohort study of all ESDs performed in our center during 2011 to 2018. C-ESD was the only technique used before 2014, with WF-ESD used beginning in 2014. In WF-ESD marking was performed 10 mm from the tumor margin compared to 5 mm with C-E. Results  ESD was performed in 90 cases, corresponding to 74 patients, 84 % male, median age 69. Of these, 22 were C-ESD (24 %) and 68 were WF-ESD (76 %). The en bloc resection rate was 95 vs 100 % (ns), the positive lateral margin rate was 23 % vs 3 % ( P  < 0.01), the R0 rate was 73 % vs 90 %, and the curative resection rate was 59 % vs 76 % in the C-ESD and WF-ESD groups, respectively, (both P  > 0.05). The procedure speed was 4.4 and 2.3 (min/mm) in the C-ESD and WF-ESD groups ( P  < 0.01), respectively. WF-ESD was associated with less post-operative strictures, 6 % vs 27 % ( P  = 0.01), with no local recurrence but no significantly reduced risk of metachronous recurrence (Hazard Ratio = 0.46, 95 %CI = 0.14-1.46), during a follow-up of 13.4 and 9.4 months in the C-ESD and WF-ESD cohorts, respectively. Conclusions  WF-ESD is associated with a reduction in positive lateral margins, faster dissection, and lower stricture rates. Further prospective, multicenter studies are warranted to evaluate its role in clinical practice.

Toward improved endoscopic surveillance with multidiameter single fiber reflectance spectroscopy in patients with Barrett's esophagus

Patients with Barrett's esophagus are at an increased risk to develop esophageal cancer and, therefore, undergo regular endoscopic surveillance. Early detection of neoplasia enables endoscopic treatment, which improves outcomes. However, early Barrett's neoplasia is easily missed during endoscopic surveillance. This study investigates multidiameter single fiber reflectance spectroscopy (MDSFR) to improve Barrett's surveillance. Based on the concept of field cancerization, it may be possible to identify the presence of a neoplastic lesion from measurements elsewhere in the esophagus or even the oral cavity. In this study, MDSFR measurements are performed on non-dysplastic Barrett's mucosa, squamous mucosa, oral mucosa, and the neoplastic lesion (if present). Based on logistic regression analysis on the scattering parameters measured by MDSFR, a classifier is developed that can predict the presence of neoplasia elsewhere in the Barrett's segment from measurements on the non-dysplastic Barrett's mucosa (sensitivity 91%, specificity 71%, AUC = 0.77). Classifiers obtained from logistic regression analysis for the squamous and oral mucosa do not result in an AUC significantly different from 0.5.

Lymphovascular Invasion as a Prognostic Factor in Non-Metastatic Adenocarcinoma of Esophagogastric Junction After Radical Surgery

Purpose

Tumors with lymphovascular invasion (LVI) are thought to be associated with lymph node metastasis and to lead to a worse prognosis. However, the effect of LVI on the prognosis of adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction (AEG) is still unclear.

Patients and Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 224 consecutive patients with non-metastatic AEG who underwent radical surgery in our hospital from 2004 to 2018. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) analysis was used to eliminate the selection bias. IPW-adjusted Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) between patients with and without LVI.

Results

A total of 224 patients with non-metastatic AEG who underwent radical resection were included in the study and 96 (42.9%) patients developed LVI. Survival analysis showed that LVI were associated with worse DSS (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.12; 95% CI: 1.93–5.03) and worse OS (HR = 2.33; 95% CI: 1.61–3.38). The results were consistent across subgroups stratified by pathologic N stage. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that Siewert type III (HR= 3.20, 95% CI: 1.45–7.06) was associated with worse DSS, but not Siewert type I/II (HR= 1.46, 95% CI: 0.94–2.31, P-interaction=0.047).

Conclusion

LVI are associated with worse prognosis in AEG. LVI had a worse effect on DSS in Siewert type III AEG than Siewert type I/II AEG.

Risk Prediction Models for Barrett's Esophagus Discriminate Well and Are Generalizable in an External Validation Study

BACKGROUND

Barrett's esophagus is the precursor to the highly lethal esophageal adenocarcinoma. Risk prediction models have been developed to assist in its detection, potentially improving early identification and treatment of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Six models have been developed.

AIMS

To externally validate three models (Rubenstein, Thrift, and Baldwin-Hunter models) and compare them to a fourth risk prediction model (Ireland model) for Barrett's esophagus.

METHODS

Data from 120 Barrett's cases and 235 population controls were available to externally validate the three models. Discriminatory ability of these models was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Calibration was assessed with the calibration slope, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and Lowess smoother calibration plot. Following external validation, diagnostic accuracy of the three models was compared to that of the Ireland model.

RESULTS

On external validation, the Rubenstein model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.71 and was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p = 0.67). Likewise, the Thrift and Baldwin-Hunter models had similar discrimination (0.71 and 0.70, respectively) and were also well calibrated (p = 0.69 and p = 0.28). Our previous external validation of the Ireland model provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 and was well calibrated (p = 0.14). The Ireland model demonstrated a statistically significantly greater area under the receiver operating characteristic curve than the Rubenstein (p = 0.02), Thrift (p = 0.001), and Baldwin-Hunter (p = 0.002) models.

CONCLUSION

We externally validated the Rubenstein, Thrift, and Baldwin-Hunter risk prediction models and compared them to the Ireland model. The Ireland model demonstrated improved accuracy, albeit with slightly poorer calibration.

Relationship between time-varying status of reflux esophagitis and Helicobacter pylori and progression to long-segment Barrett's esophagus: time-dependent Cox proportional-hazards analysis

Background

Reflux esophagitis (RE) and absence of Helicobacter pylori (non-H. pylori) are considered to be associated with the progression to long-segment Barrett’s esophagus (LSBE). However, it is difficult to assess this association because RE and H. pylori status can change during follow-up. Additionally, the association between H. pylori eradication and LSBE remains unclear.

Methods

A total of 11,493 asymptomatic Japanese subjects who underwent medical check-ups and were endoscopically diagnosed with short-segment Barrett’s esophagus (SSBE) between May 2006 and December 2015 were enrolled. The hazards of progression to LSBE were compared between time-varying RE and H. pylori infection/eradication by time-dependent multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

A total of 7637 subjects who underwent additional medical check-ups after being diagnosed with endoscopic SSBE were analyzed. Subjects with RE and without current/past H. pylori infection were strongly associated with a higher rate of progression to LSBE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 7.17, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.48–20.73, p < 0.001 for RE and non-H. pylori vs. non-RE and H. pylori groups). Subjects with H. pylori had a lower rate of progression to LSBE (adjusted HR: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.22–1.07, p = 0.07 for H. pylori vs. non-H. pylori). Hazards of progression to LSBE were still lower in the H. pylori eradication group than that of the non-H. pylori group (adjusted HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.18–1.46, p = 0.21).

Conclusions

RE and non-H. pylori were associated with the progression to LSBE, considering the changes in exposures. H. pylori infection was associated with the prevention of the development of LSBE irrespective of RE. The environment preventive of the development of LSBE persists for at least a few years after H. pylori eradication.

Use of p53 immunohistochemistry in conjunction with routine histology improves risk stratification of patients with Barrett's oesophagus during routine clinical care

AIMS

Abnormal p53 protein expression detected by immunohistochemistry (IHC) in Barrett's oesophagus (BO) is reported to be a prognostic biomarker for progression to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC). We evaluated our use of p53 IHC for patients with BO under surveillance from 2010 to 2016 in a single academic institution.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We identified 78 patients under surveillance for BO who had biopsies evaluated for abnormal p53 expression in conjunction with routine histology and 892 patients who had histological evaluation alone. All available p53 IHC slides were rescored as wild-type or abnormal. We evaluated the risk of subsequent diagnosis with HGD and OAC. p53-tested patients were significantly more likely to be diagnosed with indefinite dysplasia (IND) or low-grade dysplasia (LGD), compared to patients who were not tested (79.5 versus 10.8%, P = 7.4 × 10^-40 ). Almost half (46.9%) of patients with abnormal p53 expression were diagnosed with HGD or OAC within 5 years, compared to 5.9% with wild-type p53, and 7.6% of patients not tested (P = 2.6 × 10^-18 ). However, this difference was heavily influenced by other risk factors, including dysplasia grade, in multivariate analyses. In the subgroup of patients diagnosed with IND (n = 109), abnormal p53 expression was associated with a fourfold increase (1.2-13.3, P = 0.023) in risk of HGD/OAC relative to untested patients diagnosed with IND, independent of other risk factors.

CONCLUSION

In patients under surveillance for BO in a single academic institution, we found evidence that selective use of p53 IHC in conjunction with routine histology modestly improved risk stratification by identifying patients with IND at higher risk of a subsequent diagnosis of HGD or OAC.

Circulating exosomal miRNAs as potential biomarkers for Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma

Exosomes, a class of extracellular vesicles, are small membrane-bound vesicles derived from almost all cell types that can play important roles in intercellular communication. Exosomes contain proteins, lipids, and nucleic acids that are obtained from the parental cells and participate in various pathophysiological processes, including cell growth, migration, inflammation, immune regulation, and tumor pathogenesis. Moreover, exosomes might be applied in clinical settings, such as diagnosis, treatment, and outcome prediction of diseases, including various cancers. The incidence rates of Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) have increased in recent decades, and studies have proposed specific factors that may contribute to the development and progression of these diseases. However, how exosomes play a role in this pathological process needs to be clarified. Studies have identified candidate microRNAs (miRNAs) that might be related to BE/EAC. Further studies are needed to ascertain whether circulating exosomal miRNAs are altered before or after disease onset, which could also help understand the pathophysiology of and find potential targets for prevention, diagnosis, and therapy in BE/EAC. This review summarizes recent findings on the features of circulating exosomal miRNAs in BE/EAC, which could be valuable for the early diagnosis, therapeutic approaches, and outcome prediction of BE/EAC.

The relationship between metabolic syndrome and increased risk of Barrett's esophagus: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The relationship between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and Barrett's esophagus (BE) is still a challenging issue, and inconsistent results have been reported in different studies. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the relationship between MetS and BE.

METHODS

In this study, we followed the MOOSE protocol and results were reported according to the PRISMA guidelines. All study steps were performed independently by two authors. If necessary, the dispute was resolved by consultation with a third author. The search strategy is designed to find published studies. Comprehensive search was done in the following databases until July 2019: Cochrane Library, PubMed/Medline, Web of Science, Science Direct, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL, EBSCO, and Google Scholar search engine. All analyses were performed using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis Software Ver.2, while p-value lower than 0.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

In 14 studies with a sample size of 108,416, MetS significantly increased the risk of BE (OR = 1.354; 95% CI: 1.145-1.600; P < 0.001; Heterogeneity: I2 = 81.95%; P < 0.001). Sensitivity analysis by omitting one study showed that overall estimates are still robust. Subgroup analysis was significant for continent (P < 0.001) and MetS diagnostic criteria (P = 0.043), but was not significant for variables of study type (P = 0.899), study setting (P = 0.115), control groups (P = 0.671) and quality of studies (P = 0.603). The Begg (P = 0.912) and Egger's (P = 0.094) tests were not significant; therefore, the publication bias did not play a role in the results.

CONCLUSION

MetS increases the risk of BE compared to control groups. The results of this study can help health practitioners by identifying a treatable risk factor for the most important risk factor for esophageal carcinoma (ie, BE). Future studies should examine whether treatment for MetS reduces the risk of BE.

Association Between Helicobacter pylori Infection and Short-segment/Long-segment Barrett's Esophagus in a Japanese Population: A Large Cross-Sectional Study

GOAL

The goal of this study was to investigate the relationship between Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection and short-segment and long-segment Barrett's esophagus (SSBE and LSBE).

BACKGROUND

H. pylori infection is reported to be inversely associated with Barrett's esophagus (BE) in western countries. However, the impact of BE segment length on the association between BE and H. pylori infection has scarcely been investigated.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study subjects were 41,065 asymptomatic Japanese individuals who took medical surveys between October 2010 and September 2017. Using this large database of healthy Japanese subjects, we investigated the association between H. pylori infection and SSBE/LSBE. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Among the study subjects, 36,615 were eligible for the analysis. H. pylori seropositivity was significantly associated with a lower rate of LSBE (OR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.16-0.91) and a higher rate of SSBE (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.56-1.78) after multivariate adjustment. In the subgroup analysis, H. pylori seropositivity was significantly associated with a high rate of SSBE in subjects without reflux esophagitis (RE) (OR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.61-1.85). However, H. pylori seropositivity was not associated with SSBE in subjects with RE (OR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.84-1.37).

CONCLUSION

In a Japanese population, H. pylori infection was inversely associated with LSBE but significantly associated with SSBE only in subjects without RE. H. pylori may be a risk factor for SSBE, especially in individuals without RE.

Association between visceral abdominal obesity and long-segment Barrett's esophagus in a Japanese population

BACKGROUND

Visceral abdominal obesity is associated with Barrett's esophagus (BE), especially long-segment BE (≥ 3 cm) (LSBE), in white individuals. However, the association between central obesity and LSBE has not been well investigated in Asia. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between central obesity and LSBE in the Japanese population.

METHODS

A total of 38,298 healthy subjects who took medical surveys between April 2006 and November 2018 were enrolled. We investigated the association between LSBE and central obesity indices [visceral adipose tissue (VAT), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), and the VAT to SAT ratio (VAT/SAT)] using a multivariable logistic regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 37,686 subjects were eligible for the analysis. LSBE rates in the middle and high VAT/SAT groups were higher than those in the low VAT/SAT group [odds ratio (OR) 1.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-2.69 for middle vs low; OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.17-3.49 for high vs low). These associational trends between VAT/SAT and LSBE remained in subgroups with and without reflux esophagitis. From subgroup analyses by SAT, we found that the OR between VAT and LSBE is higher in the low SAT subgroup (OR 2.43, 95% CI 1.34-4.40 for middle vs low; OR 2.55, 95% CI 1.01-6.40 for high vs low); but not large or imprecise due to limited event numbers in the middle and high SAT subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

VAT was associated with LSBE, especially among subjects with low SAT accumulation, who are seemingly not obese. VAT/SAT was associated with LSBE regardless of the presence of reflux esophagitis in a Japanese population.

Screening for esophageal adenocarcinoma and precancerous conditions (dysplasia and Barrett's esophagus) in patients with chronic gastroesophageal reflux disease with or without other risk factors: two systematic reviews and one overview of reviews to inform a guideline of the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care (CTFPHC)

BACKGROUND

Two reviews and an overview were produced for the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care guideline on screening for esophageal adenocarcinoma in patients with chronic gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) without alarm symptoms. The goal was to systematically review three key questions (KQs): (1) The effectiveness of screening for these conditions; (2) How adults with chronic GERD weigh the benefits and harms of screening, and what factors contribute to their preferences and decision to undergo screening; and (3) Treatment options for Barrett's esophagus (BE), dysplasia or stage 1 EAC (overview of reviews).

METHODS

Bibliographic databases (e.g. Ovid MEDLINE®) were searched for each review in October 2018. We also searched for unpublished literature (e.g. relevant websites). The liberal accelerated approach was used for title and abstract screening. Two reviewers independently screened full-text articles. Data extraction and risk of bias assessments were completed by one reviewer and verified by another reviewer (KQ1 and 2). Quality assessments were completed by two reviewers independently in duplicate (KQ3). Disagreements were resolved through discussion. We used various risk of bias tools suitable for study design. The GRADE framework was used for rating the certainty of the evidence.

RESULTS

Ten studies evaluated the effectiveness of screening. One retrospective study reported no difference in long-term survival (approximately 6 to 12 years) between those who had a prior esophagogastroduodenoscopy and those who had not (adjusted HR 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-1.50). Though there may be higher odds of a stage 1 diagnosis than a more advanced diagnosis (stage 2-4) if an EGD had been performed in the previous 5 years (OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.00-7.67). Seven studies compared different screening modalities, and showed little difference between modalities. Three studies reported on patients' unwillingness to be screened (e.g. due to anxiety, fear of gagging). Eleven systematic reviews evaluated treatment modalities, providing some evidence of early treatment effect for some outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Little evidence exists on the effectiveness of screening and values and preferences to screening. Many treatment modalities have been evaluated, but studies are small. Overall, there is uncertainty in understanding the effectiveness of screening and early treatments.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATIONS

PROSPERO (CRD42017049993 [KQ1], CRD42017050014 [KQ2], CRD42018084825 [KQ3]).

Endoscopic or Surgical Resection for Gastro-Esophageal Cancer

BACKGROUND

Early gastro-esophageal cancer is staged as m1 to m3 depending on the infiltration of the anatomical layers of the mucosa or, analogously, as sm1 to sm3 depending on the depth of infiltration into the submucosa. The risk of lymph node metastases is low in mucosal carcinoma but increases with the depth of infiltration into the submucosa.

METHODS

This review is based on pertinent publications retrieved by a selective search in MEDLINE, PubMed, the Cochrane Library, and the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) registry.

RESULTS

New technologies such as narrow-band imaging have improved the endo- scopic diagnosis and staging of early gastro-esophageal cancer. The development of endoscopic submucosal dissection has led to a higher R0 resection rate, a lower risk of recurrence, and an increase in the number of endoscopic resections that are performed with curative intent. In squamous-cell carcinoma of the esophagus, surgical oncological esophagectomy is indicated if the cancer infiltrates into the third mucosal layer (T1a, m3) or deeper. In esophageal adenocarcinoma, the prevalence of lymph node metastases is low if the cancer is restricted to the mucosa and in- creases only when the submucosa is infiltrated. In the current German S3 guideline, endoscopic resection is recommended for intramucosal adenocarcinoma as long as there are no further histopathological risk factors. Lymph node metastasis in gastric carcinoma begins in the deep mucosal infiltration stage (m3). If certain special con- ditions ("extended criteria") are met, carcinoma expanding into the first submucosal layer (sm1) can be removed endoscopically. All further stages must be treated with total or subtotal gastrectomy with systematic D2 lymphadenectomy.

CONCLUSION

Borderline cases between endoscopic and surgical resection of early carcinoma of the esophagus or stomach must be managed with an interdisciplinary treatment algorithm. If there is a risk of lymph node metastasis, surgical oncological resection is indicated. Such resections of gastroesophageal cancer in the locally advanced stage should always be part of a multimodal treatment approach.

Prognostic Significance of CIP2A in Esophagogastric Junction Adenocarcinoma: A Study of 65 Patients and a Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The expression of the cancerous inhibitor protein phosphatase 2A (CIP2A) appears to be predictive of the prognosis of various solid tumors. However, the association between this protein and the risk of esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJA) remains unclear. We investigated CIP2A expression and its clinical significance in EGJA and conducted a meta-analysis to explore the relationship between CIP2A and the prognosis of patients with solid tumors.

METHODS

Immunohistochemistry (IHC) was performed to detect the expression of CIP2A in EGJA. Kaplan-Meier estimation, Cox analysis, and ROC curves were performed to analyze the survival of patients and the prognostic factors. In the meta-analysis, we searched relevant publications in several widely used databases and used 15 studies (2348 patients).

RESULTS

IHC demonstrated that CIP2A was elevated in EGJA and correlated with poor survival as an independent indicator. It could forecast the survival more precisely when combined with the grade, which is another independent prognosis marker of EGJA. Meta-analysis demonstrated that the associations between the expression of CIP2A and the prognosis were detected for overall survival (HR = 1.98, 95%CI = 1.69-2.32), disease-specific survival (HR = 1.72, 95%CI = 1.50-1.97), and time to tumor progression (pooled HR = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.56-2.43).

CONCLUSION

High expression of CIP2A was a poor indicator of the prognosis of EGJA, and CIP2A may be a new biomarker for the diagnosis and treatment of EGJA. The meta-analysis suggested that CIP2A expression can be a predictive marker of overall survival, disease-specific survival, and time to tumor progression in patients with solid tumors.

Improved Progression Prediction in Barrett's Esophagus With Low-grade Dysplasia Using Specific Histologic Criteria

Risk stratification of patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) is based on diagnosis of low-grade dysplasia (LGD). LGD has a poor interobserver agreement and a limited value for prediction of progression to high-grade dysplasia or esophageal adenocarcinoma. Specific reproducible histologic criteria may improve the predictive value of LGD. Four gastrointestinal pathologists examined 12 histologic criteria associated with LGD in 84 BE patients with LGD (15 progressors and 69 nonprogressors). The criteria with at least a moderate (kappa, 0.4 to 0.6) interobserver agreement were validated in an independent cohort of 98 BE patients with LGD (30 progressors and 68 nonprogressors). Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis using time-dependent covariates correcting for multiple endoscopies during follow-up. Agreement was moderate or good for 4 criteria, that is, loss of maturation, mucin depletion, nuclear enlargement, and increase of mitosis. Combination of the criteria differentiated high-risk and low-risk group amongst patients with LGD diagnosis (P<0.001). When ≥2 criteria were present, a significantly higher progression rate to high-grade dysplasia or esophageal adenocarcinoma was observed (discovery set: HR, 5.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.81-17; P=0.002; validation set: HR, 3.52; 95% CI, 1.56-7.97; P=0.003). Implementation of p53 immunohistochemistry and histologic criteria optimized the prediction of progression (area under the curve, 0.768; 95% CI, 0.656-0.881). We identified and validated a clinically applicable panel of 4 histologic criteria, segregating BE patients with LGD diagnosis into defined prognostic groups. This histologic panel can be used to improve clinical decision making, although additional studies are warranted.

Barrett Esophagus Length, Nodularity, and Low-grade Dysplasia are Predictive of Progression to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

GOALS

To investigate factors predictive of progression from nondysplastic Barrett esophagus (NDBE) or low-grade dysplasia (LGD) to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) using a large, prospective cohort of patients, wherein all esophageal biopsies undergo expert gastrointestinal pathologist review.

BACKGROUND

Efficacy and cost-effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance to detect incident EAC in the setting of Barrett esophagus (BE), particularly in NDBE patients, is questioned. Previous studies have reported factors predictive of progression to EAC to guide surveillance intervals, but their strength is limited by small sample size and absence of expert gastrointestinal pathologist involvement in esophageal biopsy review.

STUDY

NDBE and LGD subjects were identified from a prospective registry in a tertiary care center. "Progressors" were BE subjects who developed HGD/EAC>12 months after the initial NDBE or LGD diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards model were used to identify predictors of progression.

RESULTS

In total, 318 with NDBE and 301 with BE-LGD (mean age, 62.6 y, 85% male) were included. The mean follow-up was 5.3 years. The 7 NDBE and 21 LGD subjects progressed to HGD/EAC. BE length [hazards ratio (HR), 1.16; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.29], presence of nodularity (HR, 4.98; 95% CI, 1.80-11.7), and baseline LGD (HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.13-6.57) were significant predictors of progression on multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

In this well-defined cohort of NDBE and BE-LGD subjects, BE length, presence of LGD, and nodularity were independent predictors of progression to HGD/EAC. These factors may aid in identifying high-risk patients who may benefit from closer endoscopic surveillance/therapy.

Next-generation Sequencing in the Management of Gastric and Esophageal Cancers

Next-generation sequencing has enabled genome-wide molecular profiling of gastric and esophageal malignancies at single-nucleotide resolution. The resultant genomic profiles provide information about the specific oncogenic pathways that are the likely driving forces behind tumorigenesis and progression. The abundance of available genomic data has immense potential to redefine management paradigms for these difficult disease processes. The ability to capitalize on the information provided through high-throughput sequencing technologies will define cancer care in the coming decades and could shift the paradigm from current stage-based, organ-specific treatments toward tailored regimens that target the specific culprit pathways driving individual tumors.

Inter-institutional variations regarding Barrett's esophagus diagnosis

BACKGROUND

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a known precursor for development of esophageal adenocarcinoma and surveillance of affected patients is necessary when cancer progression risk is considered to be high. However, the accuracy of BE diagnosis may not be homogenous among institutions with endoscopy units. We investigated inter-institutional variability by examining the accuracy of endoscopic diagnosis of BE at 4 different hospitals.

METHODS

The accuracy of BE diagnosis at the 4 hospitals was retrospectively reviewed by 6 expert endoscopists, who independently reviewed endoscopic images of approximately 500 consecutive patients examined at each hospital without information regarding the diagnosis by the on-site endoscopists. When the expert reviewers made different diagnosis, a final diagnosis was made by consensus. That was then compared with the diagnosis of the attending endoscopists at each hospital and their concordance was calculated separately for each endoscopy unit. In addition, the relationship between diagnostic accuracy and endoscopic experience was assessed.

RESULTS

The prevalence of BE diagnosis by the on-site endoscopists was not homogenous and varied widely (17.2-96.8%). In 1 hospital, over-diagnosis was the cause of dissimilarity, while under-diagnosis was the cause in two hospitals. Diagnostic accuracy by the attending endoscopists in all 4 hospitals ranged from 44.6 to 83.1% (P < 0.05). There was no significant association between diagnostic accuracy and endoscopic experience or board licensing status of the on-site endoscopists.

CONCLUSION

Diagnostic accuracy for BE was not homogenous among 4 hospitals, and problems related to over- and under-diagnosis should be considered.

Circumferential distribution and clinical characteristics of esophageal cancer in lower esophagus: differences related to histological subtype

BACKGROUND

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is frequently found on the right-anterior wall of the distal esophagus in short-segment Barrett's esophagus (SSBE) patients. However, the endoscopic characteristics of EAC in cases with long-segment BE (LSBE) and squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in the lower esophagus remain to be fully evaluated. Here, we determined the circumferential distribution and clinical characteristics of esophageal cancer occurring in the lower esophagus based on histological subtype.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 150 patients with esophageal cancer (ESCC, n = 100; EAC, n = 50) diagnosed at our hospital or a related facility between January 2002 and June 2017, including information regarding endoscopic findings, etiology, and clinical parameters.

RESULTS

Of the 100 patients with ESCC, 28 lesions were located in the lower esophagus, though characteristic circumferential distribution was not seen regardless of location. Those showed a greater frequency of smoking and drinking habit and gastric mucosal atrophy as compared to patients with EAC. Consistent with the previous reports, EAC in SSBE (n = 41) was frequently located on the right-anterior wall. Likewise, EAC at the esophagogastric junction (EGJ) in LSBE was frequently located on the right-anterior wall, while EAC distant from the EGJ showed no characteristic circumferential distribution.

CONCLUSION

Our results showed no circumferential predilection for ESCC in the lower esophagus, suggesting that development of this type of lesion may be less affected by gastroesophageal reflux. In addition, EAC at the EGJ was frequently found on the right-anterior wall irrespective of BE length.

Campylobacter Concisus and Its Effect on the Expression of CDX1 and COX2

Background: Barrett’s oesophagus (BO) is a pre-malignant condition in which normal squamous epithelium of the lower oesophagus and gastresophageal junction is replaced by columnar cells and progress to oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The increase burden of oesophagus cancer morbidity and mortality worldwide make study of factors involved in the pathogenesis of BO essential. However, most of studies that examine the environmental risk factors associated with increased incidence and prevalence of BO have largely ignored the potential role of bacteria in disease aetiology. Aims: This study examined the role of Campylobacter concisus isolated from Barrett’s and adenocarcinoma patient samples as one of possible environmental factors in the progression of Barrett’s oesophagus to oesophagus adenocarcinoma. Methods: We focused on the effect of C. concisus on the expression caudal type homeobox 1 gene (CDX1) and cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) in three BO cell lines using quantitative real-time PCR. In addition, the attachment and invasion characteristics of C. concisus were also tested. Results: Results showed that C. concisus had a strong attachment to the cell lines and induce the expression of CDX1 in Barrett’s cell lines in a time-dependent manner. Conclusion: Findings indicate that C. concisus could be as a new challenge in the progression of BO to adenocarcinoma.

Methylation panel is a diagnostic biomarker for Barrett's oesophagus in endoscopic biopsies and non-endoscopic cytology specimens

OBJECTIVE

Barrett's oesophagus is a premalignant condition that occurs in the context of gastro-oesophageal reflux. However, most Barrett's cases are undiagnosed because of reliance on endoscopy. We have developed a non-endoscopic tool: the Cytosponge, which when combined with trefoil factor 3 immunohistochemistry, can diagnose Barrett's oesophagus. We investigated whether a quantitative methylation test that is not reliant on histopathological analysis could be used to diagnose Barrett's oesophagus.

DESIGN

Differentially methylated genes between Barrett's and normal squamous oesophageal biopsies were identified from whole methylome data and confirmed using MethyLight PCR in biopsy samples of squamous oesophagus, gastric cardia and Barrett's oesophagus. Selected genes were then tested on Cytosponge BEST2 trial samples comprising a pilot cohort (n=20 cases, n=10 controls) and a validation cohort (n=149 cases, n=129 controls).

RESULTS

Eighteen genes were differentially methylated in patients with Barrett'soesophagus compared with squamous controls. Hypermethylation of TFPI2, TWIST1, ZNF345 and ZNF569 was confirmed in Barrett's biopsies compared with biopsies from squamous oesophagus and gastric cardia (p<0.05). When tested in Cytosponge samples, these four genes were hypermethylated in patients with Barrett's oesophagus compared with patients with reflux symptoms (p<0.001). The optimum biomarker to diagnose Barrett's oesophagus was TFPI2 with a sensitivity and specificity of 82.2% and 95.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

TFPI2, TWIST1, ZNF345 and ZNF569 methylation have promise as diagnostic biomarkers for Barrett's oesophagus when used in combination with a simple and cost effective non-endoscopic cell collection device.

Sex hormone receptor expression and survival in esophageal adenocarcinoma: a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

A striking epidemiological feature of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is its strong, unexplained male predominance but few studies have evaluated the prevalence of sex hormone receptor expression in EAC.

RESULTS

A low proportion of EAC tumors stained positive for ERα (4%) and AR (3%) while approximately one third stained positive for ERβ (31%). After a mean follow-up of 3 years (max 9 years), no significant associations were seen for ERα, ERβ or AR expression and EAC recurrence or survival. A non-significant reduction in mortality was observed for positive ERβ tumor expression, when restricting to patients with gastro-esophageal junctional (GEJ) cancer (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.33, 1.03, p = 0.06).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We identified all EAC patients who underwent neo-adjuvant chemotherapy prior to surgical resection between 2004-2012 in the Northern Ireland Cancer Centre. Immunohistochemical expression of ERα, ERβ and AR was scored on triplicate cores to generate H-scores. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the association between sex hormone receptor expression and overall, cancer-specific and recurrence-free survival.

CONCLUSION

We found little evidence of ERα or AR expression in EAC. A moderate proportion expressed ERβ and there was suggestive evidence that its expression was associated with improved survival in GEJ cancer patients.

Adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction and its background mucosal pathology: A comparative analysis according to Siewert classification in a Japanese cohort

Adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) has heterogeneous carcinogenic process due to its location straddling the esophagogastric junction. We assessed background mucosal pathology and its correlation with clinicopathological features of each Siewert type of AEG. Clinicopathological and immunohistochemical analyses of 103 AEGs and 58 gastric cancers (GCs) were conducted. Background mucosal features were evaluated according to the updated Sydney System. Siewert classification divided 103 AEGs into three type I, 75 type II, and 25 type III tumors, respectively. Two type I, 9 type II AEGs, and none of type III AEGs were Barrett-related and were excluded from further analysis. Background mucosa of type III AEGs more frequently showed moderate to marked degree of atrophy and intestinal metaplasia than those of type II AEGs and was very similar to those of GCs. Among type II AEGs, tumors with atrophic background were significantly associated with higher patient age and intestinal-type histology. Type II AEGs with nonatrophic background, but not those with atrophic background, showed more frequent mismatch repair deficiency, TP53 overexpression, and less frequent intestinal phenotypic markers expression than type III AEG or GC. Type II AEGs with atrophic background involved suprapancreatic nodes more frequently than those without. We demonstrated that chronic atrophic gastritis was a major precancerous condition of AEG in the Japanese population, especially Siewert type III which had background mucosal pathology similar to that of GC. Type II AEGs with and without atrophic background showed some clinicopathological differences, and these observations might represent heterogeneous carcinogenic process within type II AEGs.

Deficiency of IL-18 Aggravates Esophageal Carcinoma Through Inhibiting IFN-γ Production by CD8+T Cells and NK Cells

To investigate the potential role of interleukin-18 (IL-18) in immunomodulation during tumorigenesis of esophageal carcinoma and elucidate the underlying molecular mechanism, we employed IL-18 knockout mice for this purpose. Carcinogen 4-nitroquinoline 1-oxide (4NQO) was administrated in drinking water to induce occurrence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). T cell activation as indicated by the surface CD molecules was analyzed with flow cytometry. The serous content of interferon-γ (IFN-γ) along with other cytokines was determined by inflammatory human cytokine cytometric bead array. The cytotoxicity assay was performed by co-culture of tumor cells with immune cells and relative cell viability was determined by lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) assay. Apoptotic cells were stained with Annexin-V/propidium iodide (PI) and analyzed by flow cytometry. Cell proliferation was measured with Cell Counting Kit-8 (CCK-8) assay. Our data demonstrated that deficiency of IL-18 promoted the progression and development of 4NQO-induced ESCC. Loss of IL-18 suppressed the activation of T cells in the esophagus. Deficiency of IL-18 inhibited the IFN-γ production by CD8+ T cells and natural killer (NK) cells. Absence of IL-18 inhibited the cytotoxicity of CD8+ T cells and NK cell in vitro. Moreover, deficiency of IL-18 promoted the apoptosis of CD8+ T cells and inhibited the proliferation of CD8+ T cells in vitro. Our data elucidated the immunomodulatory role of IL-18 during tumorigenesis of ESCC, whose deficiency compromised antitumor immunity and contributed to immune escape of esophageal carcinoma. Our results also indicated the therapeutic potential of exogenous IL-18 against ESCC, which warrants further investigations.

Upper Gastrointestinal Endoscopy prior to Bariatric Surgery-Mandatory or Expendable? An Analysis of 801 Cases

BACKGROUND

Upper gastrointestinal pathologies are common in bariatric patients. Preoperative esophagogastroduodenal endoscopy (EGD) should detect and treat pathologies that might alter the type of bariatric surgery. However, clinical consequences of these findings are often insignificant. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of preoperative endoscopy in our cohort and its clinical consequences.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of endoscopic findings in patients under evaluation for bariatric surgery. Endoscopic findings were compared to preoperative risk factors as well as postoperative complications, and its clinical consequences were analyzed.

RESULTS

Data was available for 801 patients. Abnormal endoscopic findings were found in 65.7% of all patients. The most common conditions were gastritis (32.1%) and gastroesophageal reflux (24.8%). Malignancies were observed in 0.5% of all patients. We observed early-stage adenocarcinoma of the esophagus in two patients through our routine preoperative evaluation. Helicobacter pylori infections were detected in preoperative biopsies in only 3.7% of all patients. Patients who reported reflux symptoms had a higher rate of pathological EGDs (74.2 vs. 64.9%, p .019). We did not find any other risk factors for a pathological endoscopy. The postoperative complication rate was 11.2%. Leakage rate was 1.1%. Mortality rate was 0.4%. We did not find any correlation between the incidence of postoperative complications and preoperative endoscopic findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Relevant findings in routine preoperative endoscopy are rare but have significant influence on decision-making in bariatric patients and should be assessed as a necessary diagnostic tool.

In vitro study on the role of SOX9 in trastuzumab resistance of adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction

Trastuzumab is recommended for the treatment of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) in combination with chemotherapy; however, drug resistance has severely affected its clinical application. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of sex determining region Y-box 9 (SOX9), a prognostic marker in adjuvant oncological settings, on AEG cell proliferation and apoptosis in the presence or absence of trastuzumab. Furthermore, the molecular mechanism underlying the role of SOX9 in trastuzumab resistance was explored. ESO26 cells were treated with various concentrations of trastuzumab, and trastuzumab induced SOX9 expression in a concentration-dependent manner, as determined by reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction and western blotting analyses. Transfection of ESO26 cells with SOX9 small interfering RNA was conducted to knock down SOX9 expression, and the results of MTT and flow cytometry assays demonstrated that SOX9 knockdown sensitized ESO26 cells to trastuzumab by inhibiting cell proliferation and enhancing cell apoptosis. In addition, it was observed that the trastuzumab-induced phosphorylation of AKT was suppressed by SOX9 knockdown. In conclusion, the present study demonstrated that SOX9 participated in trastuzumab resistance by affecting cell proliferation and apoptosis, and indicated that SOX9 may exert its effect on trastuzumab resistance via activation of the phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase/AKT signaling pathway. This study identified a novel mechanism underlying trastuzumab resistance in vitro and may be useful in improving the efficacy of trastuzumab treatment.

The association between physical activity and the risk of symptomatic Barrett's oesophagus: a UK prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Physical activity affects the functioning of the gastrointestinal system through both local and systemic effects and may play an important role in the aetiology of gastroesophageal reflux disease, Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. We investigated, for the first time in a large prospective cohort study, associations between recreational and occupational levels of physical activity and the incidence of Barrett's oesophagus.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

The European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk recruited 30 445 men and women between 1993 and 1997. Occupational and recreational levels of physical activity were measured using a baseline questionnaire. The cohort was followed up until 2015 to identify symptomatic cases of Barrett's oesophagus. Cox proportional hazard regression estimated hazard ratios (HR) for physical activity and the development of disease.

RESULTS

Two hundred and three participants developed Barrett's oesophagus (mean age: 70.6 years) the majority of whom were men (70.9%). There was an inverse association between standing occupations and disease risk [HR: 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.31-0.82, P=0.006] when compared with sedentary jobs. Heavy manual occupations were positively associated with disease risk (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 0.91-3.00), but conventional statistical significance was not reached (P=0.09). No associations were found between recreational activity and the risk of Barrett's oesophagus (HR: 1.34, 95% CI: 0.72-2.50, P=0.35, highest vs. lowest levels of activity).

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that occupational levels of physical activity may be associated with the risk Barrett's oesophagus. However, further work is required to confirm and describe specific occupations that may be protective.

Bioinformatic analyses of microRNA-targeted genes and microarray-identified genes correlated with Barrett's esophagus

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is defined as a metaplasia condition in the distal esophagus, in which the native squamous epithelium lining is replaced by a columnar epithelium with or without intestinal metaplasia. It is commonly accepted that BE is a precancerous lesion for esophageal adenocarcinoma. The aim of this study was to investigate the aberrant microRNAs (miRNAs) and differentially expressed genes (DEGs) associated with BE based on online microarray datasets. One miRNA and five gene expression profiling datasets were retrieved from the Gene Expression Omnibus Database. Aberrant microRNAs and DEGs were obtained using R/Bioconductor statistical analysis language and software. 23 dysregulated miRNAs and 632 DEGs demonstrating consistent expression tendencies in the five gene microarrays were identified in BE. Moreover, 1962 target genes of aberrant miRNAs were predicted using three bioinformatic tools, namely TargetScan, RNA22-HSA and miRDB. Ultimately, 93 target DEGs were obtained, after which functional annotation was performed on DAVID Bioinformatics Resources. Among Gene Ontology (GO) biological processes, digestive tract development and epithelial cell differentiation have demonstrated significant associations with BE pathogenesis. In addition, analysis of the KEGG pathways has revealed associations with cancer. To enable further study, one miRNA-target DEGs regulatory network was constructed using Cytoscape. 6 target DEGs demonstrated higher-degree distributions in the network, and ROC analysis indicated that FNDC3B may be the best potential biomarker for BE diagnosis. The data presented herein may provide new perspectives for exploring BE pathogenesis and may offer hits with regard to potential biomarkers in BE diagnosis, prediction and therapeutic evaluation.

Natural History of Barrett's Esophagus

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a very common condition. We have obtained fairly profound knowledge of the natural history of this condition. This results from many cross-sectional and cohort studies, many describing patients undergoing long-term surveillance. Their consent to use their clinical data has improved our knowledge to the benefit of these same and other patients. The prevalence of BE increases with age both in men and in women. This increase starts at a younger age in men than in women. The incidence of high-grade dysplasia and cancer in BE depends on segment length, gender, and age. The latter two likely indicate the duration of the presence of BE in an individual patient. Other factors that influence the incidence of dysplasia and cancer are smoking behavior and use of certain medications such as PPIs, statins, and NSAIDs. Surveillance of BE and treatment of dysplasia can impact the incidence of and mortality due to esophageal adenocarcinoma. This is of major benefit to a subgroup of BE patients. The epidemiology and burden of disease ask for further efforts to develop targeted screening, surveillance, and intervention techniques in coming years.

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase tagging polymorphisms are associated with risk of esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma: a case-control study involving 2,740 Chinese Han subjects

In this study, we aimed to determine the potential association of MTHFR tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with risk of developing esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJA). MTHFR rs1801133 G>A, rs3753584 T>C, rs4845882 G>A, rs4846048 A>G and rs9651118 T>C polymorphisms were genotyped in 1,677 healthy individuals and 1,063 patients with EGJA. We found that MTHFR rs1801133 G>A polymorphism was significantly associated with the risk of developing EGJA (AA vs. GG: adjusted P = 0.001; GA/AA vs. GG: adjusted P = 0.007 and AA vs. GA/GG: adjusted P = 0.001). However, for MTHFR rs4845882 G>A polymorphism, the decreased risk of EGJA was found in two genetic models (AA vs. GG: adjusted P = 0.002 and AA vs. GA/GG: adjusted P = 0.005). In addition, for MTHFR rs3753584 T>C and rs9651118 T>C polymorphisms, a tendency to decreased risk of EGJA was noted. In a subgroup analysis, a significantly decreased risk of EGJA in <64 years subgroup was identified. We found that MTHFR G_rs1801133T_rs3753584G_rs4845882A_rs4846048C_rs9651118, G_rs1801133C_rs3753584A_rs4845882A_rs4846048T_rs9651118 and G_rs1801133T_rs3753584A_rs4845882G_rs4846048T_rs9651118 haplotypes significantly decreased the risk of EGJA (P = 0.002, P < 0.001 and P = 0.038, respectively). In conclusion, our study demonstrates that MTHFR rs1801133 G>A may be associated with the increased risk of EGJA. Meanwhile, MTHFR rs3753584 T>C, rs4845882 G>A and rs9651118 T>C polymorphisms and haplotypes may decrease the risk of EGJA in Eastern Chinese Han population. Further studies with large sample size and detailed gene-environmental data are needed to validate our conclusion.

Fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 expression, but not its genetic amplification, is associated with tumor growth and worse survival in esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma

Background

Fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (FGFR2) genetic alterations lead to tumor cell proliferation in various types of cancer. We hypothesized that FGFR2 amplification is associated with FGFR2 expression, resulting in tumor growth and poorer outcome in esophagogastric junction (EGJ) adenocarcinoma.

Patients and Methods

A total of 176 consecutive chemo-naive patients with EGJ adenocarcinoma were enrolled from two academic institutions. FGFR2 amplification was examined by real-time PCR (N = 140) and FGFR2 expression with immunohistochemical staining (N = 176), and compared against clinicopathological factors and patient outcomes. The effects of FGFR2 inhibition or overexpression on cell proliferation, cell cycle, and apoptosis assays were investigated in EGJ adenocarcinoma cell lines. Downstream FGFR2, AKT and ERK were also examined.

Results

Based on the correlation between FGFR2 levels and FGFR2 overexpression in vitro, FGFR2 amplification was defined as copy number > 3.0. In clinical samples, FGFR2 amplification and FGFR2 IHC expression were 15% and 61%, respectively. Although these two statuses were significantly correlated (P < 0.05), only FGFR2 IHC expression was significantly associated with tumor depth (multivariate P < 0.001) and overall survival of patients (univariate P = 0.007). Supporting these findings, FGFR2 overexpression was associated with tumor cell proliferation, cell cycle progression, and anti-apoptosis. Selective inhibition of FGFR2 sufficiently suppressed tumor cell proliferation through de-phosphorylation of AKT and ERK.

Conclusions

FGFR2 amplification was significantly associated with FGFR2 expression. FGFR2 expression (but not FGFR2 amplification) was associated with tumor growth and patient outcomes. Our findings support FGFR2 as a novel therapeutic target for EGJ adenocarcinoma.

Does physical activity protect against the development of gastroesophageal reflux disease, Barrett's esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma? A review of the literature with a meta-analysis

Physical activity affects the functioning of the gastrointestinal system through both local and systemic effects and may play an important role in reducing the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma. This review assesses the biological mechanisms and epidemiological evidence for the relationship between physical activity and the development of esophageal adenocarcinoma and its precursor diseases: gastroesophageal reflux disease (GORD) and Barrett's esophagus. A search of PubMed, Medline, Embase, and CINAHL was conducted from their inceptions to 25th March 2017 for analytical studies that examined associations between recreational and/or occupational levels of physical activity and the risk of GORD, Barrett's esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Where appropriate, a meta-analysis of effects was undertaken. Seven studies were included (2 cohort, 5 case control). For GORD, there were three case-control studies with 10 200 cases among 78 034 participants, with a pooled estimated OR of 0.67 (95% CI 0.57-0.78) for high versus low levels of recreational physical activity. In Barrett's esophagus, there was a single case-control study, which reported no association, OR 1.19 (95% CI 0.82-1.73). For esophageal adenocarcinoma, there were three studies (two prospective cohort, one case control) with 666 cases among 910 376 participants. The largest cohort study reported an inverse association for high versus low levels of recreational physical activity, RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.48-0.96. The remaining two studies reported no associations with either occupational or combined recreational and occupational activity. Heterogeneity in the measurement of exposure (recreational, occupational, and both) made a pooled estimate for esophageal adenocarcinoma inappropriate. Although limited, there is some evidence that higher levels of recreational physical activity may reduce the risk of both GORD and esophageal adenocarcinoma, but further large cohort studies examining the type, intensity and duration of activities that may be beneficial are needed.

Development of a risk prediction model for Barrett's esophagus in an Australian population

Esophageal adenocarcinoma has poor 5-year survival rates. Increased survival might be achieved with earlier treatment, but requires earlier identification of the precursor, Barrett's esophagus. Population screening is not cost effective, this may be improved by targeted screening directed at individuals more likely to have Barrett's esophagus. To develop a risk prediction tool for Barrett's esophagus, this study compared individuals with Barrett's esophagus against population controls. Participants completed a questionnaire comprising 35 questions addressing medical history, symptom history, lifestyle factors, anthropomorphic measures, and demographic details. Statistical analysis addressed differences between cases and controls, and entailed initial variable selection, checking of model assumptions, and establishing calibration and discrimination. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to assess overall accuracy. One hundred and twenty individuals with Barrett's esophagus and 235 population controls completed the questionnaire. Significant differences were identified for age, gender, reflux history, family reflux history, history of hypertension, alcoholic drinks per week, and body mass index. These were used to develop a risk prediction model. The AUC was 0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.87). Good calibration between predicted and observed risk was noted (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.67). At the point minimizing false positives and false negatives, the model achieved a sensitivity of 84.96% and a specificity of 66%. A well-calibrated risk prediction model with good discrimination has been developed to identify patients with Barrett's esophagus. The model needs to be externally validated before consideration for clinical practice.