Dramatic increase in HIV prevalence after scale-up of antiretroviral treatment

Tracking external introductions of HIV using phylodynamics reveals a major source of infections in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Despite increasing access to antiretrovirals, HIV incidence in rural KwaZulu-Natal remains among the highest ever reported in Africa. While many epidemiological factors have been invoked to explain such high incidence, widespread human mobility and viral movement suggest that transmission between communities may be a major source of new infections. High cross-community transmission rates call into question how effective increasing the coverage of antiretroviral therapy locally will be at preventing new infections, especially if many new cases arise from external introductions. To help address this question, we use a phylodynamic model to reconstruct epidemic dynamics and estimate the relative contribution of local transmission versus external introductions to overall incidence in KwaZulu-Natal from HIV-1 phylogenies. By comparing our results with population-based surveillance data, we show that we can reliably estimate incidence from viral phylogenies once viral movement in and out of the local population is accounted for. Our analysis reveals that early epidemic dynamics were largely driven by external introductions. More recently, we estimate that 35 per cent (95% confidence interval: 20-60%) of new infections arise from external introductions. These results highlight the growing need to consider larger-scale regional transmission dynamics when designing and testing prevention strategies.

List randomization for eliciting HIV status and sexual behaviors in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a randomized experiment using known true values for validation

BACKGROUND

List randomization (LR), a survey method intended to mitigate biases related to sensitive true/false questions, has received recent attention from researchers. However, tests of its validity are limited, with no study comparing LR-elicited results with individually known truths. We conducted a test of LR for HIV-related responses in a high HIV prevalence setting in KwaZulu-Natal. By using researcher-known HIV serostatus and HIV test refusal data, we were able to assess how LR and direct questionnaires perform against individual known truth.

METHODS

Participants were recruited from the participation list from the 2016 round of the Africa Health Research Institute demographic surveillance system, oversampling individuals who were HIV positive. Participants were randomized to two study arms. In Arm A, participants were presented five true/false statements, one of which was the sensitive item, the others non-sensitive. Participants were then asked how many of the five statements they believed were true. In Arm B, participants were asked about each statement individually. LR estimates used data from both arms, while direct estimates were generated from Arm B alone. We compared elicited responses to HIV testing and serostatus data collected through the demographic surveillance system.

RESULTS

We enrolled 483 participants, 262 (54%) were randomly assigned to Arm A, and 221 (46%) to Arm B. LR estimated 56% (95% CI: 40 to 72%) of the population to be HIV-negative, compared to 47% (95% CI: 39 to 54%) using direct estimates; the population-estimate of the true value was 32% (95% CI: 28 to 36%). LR estimates yielded HIV test refusal percentages of 55% (95% CI: 37 to 73%) compared to 13% (95% CI: 8 to 17%) by direct estimation, and 15% (95% CI: 12 to 18%) based on observed past behavior.

CONCLUSIONS

In this context, LR performed poorly when compared to known truth, and did not improve estimates over direct questioning methods when comparing with known truth. These results may reflect difficulties in implementation or comprehension of the LR approach, which is inherently complex. Adjustments to delivery procedures may improve LR's usefulness. Further investigation of the cognitive processes of participants in answering LR surveys is warranted.

Progress towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals by age and gender in a rural area of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a household-based community cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed an ambitious strategy to end the AIDS epidemic. After eight years of antiretroviral therapy (ART) program we assessed progress towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in Mbongolwane and Eshowe, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional household-based community survey using a two-stage stratified cluster probability sampling strategy. Persons aged 15-59 years were eligible. We used face-to-face interviewer-administered questionnaires to collect information on history of HIV testing and care. Rapid HIV testing was performed on site and venous blood specimens collected from HIV-positive participants for antiretroviral drug presence test, CD4 count and viral load. At the time of the survey the CD4 threshold for ART initiation was 350 cells/μL. We calculated progression towards the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets by estimating three proportions: HIV positive individuals who knew their status (first 90), those diagnosed who were on ART (second 90), and those on ART who were virally suppressed (third 90).

RESULTS

We included 5649/6688 (84.5%) individuals. Median age was 26 years (IQR: 19-40), 62.3% were women. HIV prevalence was 25.2% (95% CI: 23.6-26.9): 30.9% (95% CI: 29.0-32.9) in women; 15.9% (95% CI: 14.0-18.0) in men. Overall progress towards the 90-90-90 targets was as follows: 76.4% (95% CI: 74.1-78.6) knew their status, 69.9% (95% CI: 67.0-72.7) of those who knew their status were on ART and 93.1% (95% CI: 91.0-94.8) of those on ART were virally suppressed. By sex, progress towards the 90-90-90 targets was: 79%-71%-93% among women; and 68%-68%-92% among men (p-values of women and men comparisons were < 0.001, 0.443 and 0.584 respectively). By age, progress was: 83%-75%-95% among individuals aged 30-59 years and 64%-58%-89% among those aged 15-29 years (p-values of age groups comparisons were < 0.001, < 0.001 and 0.011 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In this context of high HIV prevalence, significant progress has been achieved with regards to reaching the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. The third 90, viral suppression in people on ART, was achieved among women and men. However, gaps persist in HIV diagnosis and ART coverage particularly in men and individuals younger than 30 years. Achieving 90-90-90 is feasible but requires additional investment to reach youth and men.

Factors that Motivated Otherwise Healthy HIV-Positive Young Adults to Access HIV Testing and Treatment in South Africa

The World Health Organization recommends early initiation of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all those infected with the virus at any CD4 count. Successfully reaching individuals with relatively high CD4 counts depends in large part on healthy individuals seeking testing and treatment; however, little is known about factors motivating this decision. We conducted a qualitative study to explore this issue among 25 young HIV-positive adults (age 18-35) with a CD4 count >350 cells/mm³ who recently started or made the decision to start ART in Gugulethu, South Africa. Using an inductive content analytical approach, we found that most individuals sought testing and treatment early in the disease progression because of a desire to appear healthy thereby avoiding stigma associated with AIDS. Other factors included social support, responsibilities and aspirations, normalcy of having HIV, and accessible services. These findings suggest that maintenance of physical appearance should be included in the development of novel testing and treatment interventions.

Measuring ventilation and modelling M. tuberculosis transmission in indoor congregate settings, rural KwaZulu-Natal

SETTING: Molecular epidemiology suggests that most Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in high-burden settings occurs outside the home.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of M. tuberculosis transmission inside public buildings in a high TB burden community in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

DESIGN: Carbon dioxide (CO₂) sensors were placed inside eight public buildings. Measurements were used with observations of occupancy to estimate infection risk using an adaptation of the Wells-Riley equation. Ventilation modelling using CONTAM was used to examine the impact of low-cost retrofits on transmission in a health clinic.

RESULTS: Measurements indicate that infection risk in the church, classroom and clinic waiting room would be high with typical ventilation, occupancy levels and visit durations. For example, we estimated that health care workers in a clinic waiting room had a 16.9–24.5% annual risk of M. tuberculosis infection. Modelling results indicate that the simple addition of two new windows allowing for cross-ventilation, at a cost of US$330, would reduce the annual risk to health care workers by 57%.

CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that public buildings in this community have a range of ventilation and occupancy characteristics that may influence transmission risks. Simple retrofits may result in dramatic reductions in M. tuberculosis transmission, and intervention studies should therefore be considered.

Do gifts increase consent to home-based HIV testing? A difference-in-differences study in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Background

Despite the importance of HIV testing for controlling the HIV epidemic, testing rates remain low. Efforts to scale up testing coverage and frequency in hard-to-reach and at-risk populations commonly focus on home-based HIV testing. This study evaluates the effect of a gift (a US$5 food voucher for families) on consent rates for home-based HIV testing.

Methods

We use data on 18 478 individuals (6 418 men and 12 060 women) who were successfully contacted to participate in the 2009 and 2010 population-based HIV surveillance carried out by the Wellcome Trust's Africa Health Research Institute in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Of 18 478 potential participants contacted in both years, 35% (6 518) consented to test in 2009, and 41% (7 533) consented to test in 2010. Our quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach controls for unobserved confounding in estimating the causal effect of the intervention on HIV-testing consent rates.

Results

Allocation of the gift to a family in 2010 increased the probability of family members consenting to test in the same year by 25 percentage points [95% confidence interval (CI) 21-30 percentage points; P  < 0.001]. The intervention effect persisted, slightly attenuated, in the year following the intervention (2011).

Conclusions

In HIV hyperendemic settings, a gift can be highly effective at increasing consent rates for home-based HIV testing. Given the importance of HIV testing for treatment uptake and individual health, as well as for HIV treatment-as-prevention strategies and for monitoring the population impact of the HIV response, gifts should be considered as a supportive intervention for HIV-testing initiatives where consent rates have been low.

Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic liver disease due to hepatitis B or C and coinfected with the human immunodeficiency virus: A retrospective cohort study

AIM

To assess the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic liver disease due to hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed, including patients with chronic liver disease due to HBV or HCV, with and without HIV coinfection. Patients were selected in the largest tertiary public hospital complex in southern Brazil between January 2007 and June 2014. We assessed demographic and clinical data, including lifestyle habits such as illicit drug use or alcohol abuse, in addition to frequency and reasons for hospital admissions via medical records review.

RESULTS

Of 804 patients were included (399 with HIV coinfection and 405 monoinfected with HBV or HCV). Coinfected patients were younger (36.7 ± 10 vs 46.3 ± 12.5, P < 0.001). Liver cirrhosis was observed in 31.3% of HIV-negative patients and in 16.5% of coinfected (P < 0.001). HCC was diagnosed in 36 patients (10 HIV coinfected and 26 monoinfected). The incidence density of HCC in coinfected and monoinfected patients was 0.25 and 0.72 cases per 100 patient-years (95%CI: 0.12-0.46 vs 0.47-1.05) (long-rank P = 0.002), respectively. The ratio for the HCC incidence rate was 2.98 for HIV-negative. However, when adjusting for age or when only cirrhotic are analyzed, the absence of HIV lost statistical significance for the development of HCC.

CONCLUSION

In this study, the presence of HIV coinfection in chronic liver disease due to HBV or HCV showed no relation to the increase of HCC incidence.

HIV-Associated Psoriasis

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence is increasing worldwide as people on antiretroviral therapy are living longer. These patients are often susceptible to debilitating inflammatory disorders that are frequently refractory to standard treatment. Psoriasis is a systemic inflammatory disorder, associated with both physical and psychological burden, and can be the presenting feature of HIV infection. In this population, psoriasis tends to be more severe, to have atypical presentations and higher failure rates with the usual prescribed treatments. Management of moderate and severe HIV-associated psoriasis is challenging. Systemic conventional and biologic agents may be considered, but patients should be carefully followed up for potential adverse events, like opportunist infections, and regular monitoring of CD4 counts and HIV viral loads.

Prevalence of sexually transmitted infections among young people in South Africa: A nested survey in a health and demographic surveillance site

BACKGROUND

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and bacterial vaginosis (BV) are associated with increased transmission of HIV, and poor reproductive and sexual health. The burden of STIs/BV among young people is unknown in many high HIV prevalence settings. We conducted an acceptability, feasibility, and prevalence study of home-based sampling for STIs/BV among young men and women aged 15-24 years old in a health and demographic surveillance site (HDSS) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A total of 1,342 young people, stratified by age (15-19 and 20-24 years) and sex were selected from the HDSS sampling frame; 1,171/1,342 (87%) individuals had ≥1 attempted home visit between 4 October 2016 and 31 January 2017, of whom 790 (67%) were successfully contacted. Among the 645 who were contacted and eligible, 447 (69%) enrolled. Consenting/assenting participants were interviewed, and blood, self-collected urine (men), and vaginal swabs (women) were tested for herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis, trichomoniasis, and BV. Both men and women reported that sample collection was easy. Participants disagreed that sampling was painful; more than half of the participants disagreed that they felt anxious or embarrassed. The weighted prevalence of STIs/BV among men and women, respectively, was 5.3% and 11.2% for chlamydia, 1.5% and 1.8% for gonorrhoea, 0% and 0.4% for active syphilis, 0.6% and 4.6% for trichomoniasis, 16.8% and 28.7% for HSV-2, and 42.1% for BV (women only). Of the women with ≥1 curable STI, 75% reported no symptoms. Factors associated with STIs/BV included having older age, being female, and not being in school or working. Among those who participated in the 2016 HIV serosurvey, the prevalence of HIV was 5.6% among men and 19% among women. Feasibility was impacted by the short study duration and the difficulty finding men at home.

CONCLUSIONS

A high prevalence of STIs/BV was found in this rural setting with high HIV prevalence in South Africa. Most STIs and HIV infections were asymptomatic and would not have been identified or treated under national syndromic management guidelines. A nested STI/BV survey within a HDSS proved acceptable and feasible. This is a proof of concept for population-based STI surveillance in low- and middle-income countries that could be utilised in the evaluation of STI/HIV prevention and control programmes.

Antifungal Activity of Plasmacytoid Dendritic Cells and the Impact of Chronic HIV Infection

Due to the effectiveness of combined antiretroviral therapy, people living with HIV can control viral replication and live longer lifespans than ever. However, HIV-positive individuals still face challenges to their health and well-being, including dysregulation of the immune system resulting from years of chronic immune activation, as well as opportunistic infections from pathogenic fungi. This review focuses on one of the key players in HIV immunology, the plasmacytoid dendritic cell (pDC), which links the innate and adaptive immune response and is notable for being the body’s most potent producer of type-I interferons (IFNs). During chronic HIV infection, the pDC compartment is greatly dysregulated, experiencing a substantial depletion in number and compromise in function. This immune dysregulation may leave patients further susceptible to opportunistic infections. This is especially important when considering a new role for pDCs currently emerging in the literature: in addition to their role in antiviral immunity, recent studies suggest that pDCs also play an important role in antifungal immunity. Supporting this new role, pDCs express C-type lectin receptors including dectin-1, dectin-2, dectin-3, and mannose receptor, and toll-like receptors-4 and -9 that are involved in recognition, signaling, and response to a wide variety of fungal pathogens, including Aspergillus fumigatus, Cryptococcus neoformans, Candida albicans, and Pneumocystis jirovecii. Accordingly, pDCs have been demonstrated to recognize and respond to certain pathogenic fungi, measured via activation, cytokine production, and fungistatic activity in vitro, while in vivo mouse models indicated a strikingly vital role for pDCs in survival against pulmonary Aspergillus challenge. Here, we discuss the role of the pDC compartment and the dysregulation it undergoes during chronic HIV infection, as well as what is known so far about the role and mechanisms of pDC antifungal activity.

The Role of Type 2 Diabetes for the Development of Pathogen-Associated Cancers in the Face of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic

The contribution of HIV to the development of pathogen-associated cancers has long been recognized, as has the contribution of type 2 diabetes for the development of several types of cancer. While HIV/AIDS-associated immunosuppression reduces immunosurveillance and indirectly contributes favorably to cancerogenesis, diabetes directly increases cancer development due to chronic low-grade inflammation, dysregulated glucose metabolism, hyperactivation of insulin-responsive pathways, and anti-apoptotic signaling. Pathogen-associated cancers contribute significantly to the cancer burden particularly in low- and middle-income countries. In those countries, the incidence of type 2 diabetes has increased alarmingly over the last decades, in part due to rapid changes in diet, lifestyle, and urbanization. It is likely that the HIV/AIDS epidemic and the steadily increasing rate of type 2 diabetes display synergistic effects on oncogenesis. Although this possible link has not been extensively investigated, it might become more important in the years to come not least due to the stimulating effects of antiretroviral therapy on the development of type 2 diabetes. This review provides an overview of the current understanding of pathogen- and diabetes- associated cancers with focus on geographical regions additionally burdened by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. As both HIV and carcinogenic infections as well as the onset of type 2 diabetes involve environmental factors that can be avoided to a certain extent, this review will support the hypothesis that certain malignancies are potentially preventable. Deploying effective infection control strategies together with educational policies on diet and lifestyle may in the long term reduce the burden of preventable cancers which is of particular relevance in low-resource settings.

High percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases within a hyperendemic South African community: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Undiagnosed HIV infections could undermine efforts to reverse the global AIDS epidemic by 2030. In this study, we estimated the percentage of HIV-positive persons who remain undiagnosed within a hyperendemic South African community.

METHODS

The data come from a population-based surveillance system located in the Umkhanyakude district of the northern KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. We annually tested 38 661 adults for HIV between 2005 and 2016. Using the HIV-positive test results of 12 039 (31%) participants, we then back-calculated the incidence of infection and derived the number of undiagnosed cases from this result.

RESULTS

The percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases decreased from 29.3% in 2005 to 15.8% in 2011. During this period, however, approximately 50% of the participants refused to test for HIV, which lengthened the average time from infection to diagnosis. Consequently, the percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases reversed direction and steadily increased from 16.1% to 18.9% over the 2012-2016 period.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from this hyperendemic South African setting show that the HIV testing rate is low, with long infection times, and an unsatisfactorily high percentage of undiagnosed cases. A high level of repeat HIV testing is needed to minimise the time from infection to diagnosis if the global AIDS epidemic is to be reversed within the next two decades.

Confirmatory factor analysis of the Kaufman assessment battery in a sample of primary school-aged children in rural South Africa

The Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children, Second Edition, measures cognitive processing, includes non-verbal sub-tests, and is increasingly used in low- and middle-income countries. While the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children, Second Edition, has been validated in the United States, a psychometric evaluation has not been conducted in Southern Africa. This study aims to establish the reliability and validity of the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children, Second Edition, among a sample of 376 primary school-aged children in rural South Africa (7–11 years). We examined Cronbach’s alpha and conducted a confirmatory factor analysis. The battery showed good reliability (mental processing index [α = .78]), and the originally validated structure of the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children, Second Edition, was maintained (χ2 = 16.30, p = .432). Mean scores were low on the Planning sub-scale. On the Simultaneous sub-scale, the mean score was higher for the supplementary sub-test Block Counting versus the core sub-test Triangles. With translation and the inclusion of supplementary sub-tests, the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children, Second Edition, is an appropriate assessment to use in this context (150/150).

Early resumption of sexual activity following voluntary medical male circumcision in Botswana: A qualitative study

Unprotected sexual intercourse after undergoing voluntary medical male circumcision but prior to complete wound healing can lead to major adverse events including HIV acquisition. To better understand perceptions related to early resumption of sex prior to wound healing, 27 focus group discussions were conducted among 238 adult men, women, and community leaders in Botswana. Median age among all participants was 31 years of whom 60% were male and 51% were either employed and receiving salary or self-employed. Only 12% reported being currently married. Pain, not risk of HIV acquisition, was perceived as the main adverse consequence of early resumption of sex. In fact, no participant mentioned that early resumption of sex could lead to an increase in HIV risk. Demonstrating masculinity and virility, fear of losing female partners, and misperception about post-operative wound healing also played key roles in the decision to resume sex prior to complete wound healing. Findings from this study highlight a potentially widespread lack of awareness of the increased risk of HIV acquisition during the wound healing period. Strengthening post-operative counseling and identifying strategies to discourage the early resumption of sex will be increasingly important as older men and HIV-positive men seek voluntary medical male circumcision services.

Impact of Point-of-Care Xpert MTB/RIF on Tuberculosis Treatment Initiation. A Cluster-randomized Trial

RATIONALE

Point-of-care (POC) diagnostics have the potential to reduce pretreatment loss to follow-up and delays to initiation of appropriate tuberculosis (TB) treatment.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effect of a POC diagnostic strategy on initiation of appropriate TB treatment.

METHODS

We conducted a cluster-randomized trial of adults with cough who were HIV positive and/or at high risk of drug-resistant TB. Two-week time blocks were randomized to two strategies: (1) Xpert MTB/RIF test (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA) performed at a district hospital laboratory or (2) POC Xpert MTB/RIF test performed at a primary health care clinic. All participants provided two sputum specimens: one for the Xpert test and the other for culture as a reference standard. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants with culture-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) initiated on appropriate TB treatment within 30 days.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Between August 22, 2011, and March 1, 2013, 36 two-week blocks were randomized, and 1,297 individuals were enrolled (646 in the laboratory arm, 651 in the POC arm), 159 (12.4%) of whom had culture-positive PTB. The proportions of participants with culture-positive PTB initiated on appropriate TB treatment within 30 days were 76.5% in the laboratory arm and 79.5% in the POC arm (odds ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-2.53; P = 0.76; risk difference, 3.1%; 95% confidence interval, -16.2 to 10.1). The median time to initiation of appropriate treatment was 7 days (laboratory) versus 1 day (POC).

CONCLUSIONS

POC positioning of the Xpert test led to more rapid initiation of appropriate TB treatment. Achieving one-stop diagnosis and treatment for all people with TB will require simpler, more sensitive diagnostics and broader strengthening of health systems. Clinical trial registered with www.isrctn.com (ISRCTN 18642314) and www.sanctr.gov.za (DOH-27-0711-3568).

Multi-scale immunoepidemiological modeling of within-host and between-host HIV dynamics: systematic review of mathematical models

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to conduct a systematic review of multi-scale HIV immunoepidemiological models to improve our understanding of the synergistic impact between the HIV viral-immune dynamics at the individual level and HIV transmission dynamics at the population level.

BACKGROUND

While within-host and between-host models of HIV dynamics have been well studied at a single scale, connecting the immunological and epidemiological scales through multi-scale models is an emerging method to infer the synergistic dynamics of HIV at the individual and population levels.

METHODS

We reviewed nine articles using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) framework that focused on the synergistic dynamics of HIV immunoepidemiological models at the individual and population levels.

RESULTS

HIV immunoepidemiological models simulate viral immune dynamics at the within-host scale and the epidemiological transmission dynamics at the between-host scale. They account for longitudinal changes in the immune viral dynamics of HIV+ individuals, and their corresponding impact on the transmission dynamics in the population. They are useful to analyze the dynamics of HIV super-infection, co-infection, drug resistance, evolution, and treatment in HIV+ individuals, and their impact on the epidemic pathways in the population. We illustrate the coupling mechanisms of the within-host and between-host scales, their mathematical implementation, and the clinical and public health problems that are appropriate for analysis using HIV immunoepidemiological models.

CONCLUSION

HIV immunoepidemiological models connect the within-host immune dynamics at the individual level and the epidemiological transmission dynamics at the population level. While multi-scale models add complexity over a single-scale model, they account for the time varying immune viral response of HIV+ individuals, and the corresponding impact on the time-varying risk of transmission of HIV+ individuals to other susceptibles in the population.

High mortality rates in men initiated on anti-retroviral treatment in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

In attaining UNAIDS targets of 90-90-90 to achieve epidemic control, understanding who the current utilizers of HIV treatment services are will inform efforts aimed at reaching those not being reached. A retrospective chart review of CAPRISA AIDS Treatment Program (CAT) patients between 2004 and 2013 was undertaken. Of the 4043 HIV-infected patients initiated on ART, 2586 (64.0%) were women. At ART initiation, men, compared to women, had significantly lower median CD4+ cell counts (113 vs 131 cells/mm3, p <0.001), lower median body mass index (BMI) (21.0 vs 24.2 kg/m2, p<0.001), higher mean log viral load (5.0 vs 4.9 copies/ml, p<0.001) and were significantly older (median age: 35 vs. 32 years, p<0.001). Men had higher mortality rates compared to women, 6.7 per 100 person-years (p-y), (95% CI: 5.8-7.8) vs. 4.4 per 100 p-y, (95% CI: 3.8-5.0); mortality rate ratio: 1.54, (95% CI: 1.27-1.87), p <0.001. Age-standardised mortality rate was 7.9 per 100 p-y (95% CI: 4.1-11.7) for men and 5.7 per 100 p-y (95% CI: 2.7 to 8.6) for women (standardised mortality ratio: 1.38 (1.15 to 1.70)). Mean CD4+ cell count increases post-ART initiation were lower in men at all follow-up time points. Men presented later in the course of their HIV disease for ART initiation with more advanced disease and experienced a higher mortality rate compared to women.

Neurologic Complications in Treated HIV-1 Infection

Effective combination antiretroviral therapy has transformed HIV infection into a chronic disease, with HIV-infected individuals living longer and reaching older age. Neurological disease remains common in treated HIV, however, due in part to ongoing inflammation and immune activation that persist in chronic infection. In this review, we highlight recent developments in our understanding of several clinically relevant neurologic complications that can occur in HIV infection despite treatment, including HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders, symptomatic CSF escape, cerebrovascular disease, and peripheral neuropathy.

Sexual partnership age pairings and risk of HIV acquisition in rural South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the contribution of specific sexual partner age groups to the risk of HIV acquisition in men and women in a hyperendemic region of South Africa.

DESIGN

We conducted a population-based cohort study among women (15-49 years of age) and men (15-55 years of age) between 2004 and 2015 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS

Generalized additive models were used to estimate smoothed HIV incidence rates across partnership age pairings in men and women. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the relative risk of HIV acquisition by partner age group.

RESULTS

A total of 882 HIV seroconversions were observed in 15 935 person-years for women, incidence rate = 5.5 per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.2-5.9] and 270 HIV seroconversions were observed in 9372 person-years for men, incidence rate = 2.9 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 2.6-3.2). HIV incidence was highest among 15-24-year-old women reporting partnerships with 30-34-year-old men, incidence rate = 9.7 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 7.2-13.1). Risk of HIV acquisition in women was associated with male partners aged 25-29 years (adjusted hazard ratio; aHR = 1.44, 95% CI, 1.02-2.04) and 30-34 years (aHR = 1.50, 95% CI, 1.08-2.09) relative to male partners aged 35 and above. Risk of HIV acquisition in men was associated with 25-29-year-old (aHR = 1.72, 95% CI, 1.02-2.90) and 30-34-year-old women (aHR = 2.12, 95% CI, 1.03-4.39) compared to partnerships with women aged 15-19 years.

CONCLUSION

Age of sexual partner is a major risk factor for HIV acquisition in both men and women, independent of one's own age. Partner age pairings play a critical role in driving the cycle of HIV transmission.

Incident HIV during pregnancy and early postpartum period: a population-based cohort study in a rural area in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

The evidence on the effect of pregnancy on acquiring HIV is conflicting, with studies reporting both higher and lower HIV acquisition risk during pregnancy when prolonged antiretroviral therapy was accessible. The aim of this study was to assess the pregnancy effect on HIV acquisition where antiretroviral therapy was widely available in a high HIV prevalence setting.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study nested within a population-based surveillance to determine HIV incidence in HIV-uninfected women from 15 to 49 years from 2010 through 2015 in rural KwaZulu-Natal. HIV incidence per 100 person-years according to pregnancy status (not pregnant, pregnant, to eight weeks postpartum) were measured in 5260 HIV-uninfected women. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression with pregnancy included as a time varying variable.

RESULTS

Overall, pregnancy HIV incidence was 4.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 3.4-5.8), higher than non-pregnancy (4.0; 95% CI 3.7-4.3) and postpartum incidences (4.2 per 100 person-years; 95% CI 2.3-7.6). However, adjusting for age, and demographic factors, pregnant women had a lower risk of acquiring HIV (HR 0.4; 95% CI 0.2-0.9, P = 0.032) than non-pregnant women; there were no differences between postpartum and non-pregnant women (HR 1.2; 95% CI 0.4-3.2; P = 0.744). In models adjusting for the interaction of age and gravidity, pregnant women under 25 years with two or more pregnancies had a 2.3 times greater risk of acquiring HIV than their older counterparts (95% CI 1.3-4.3; P = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnancy had a protective effect on HIV acquisition. Elevated HIV incidence in younger women appeared to be driven by those with higher gravidity. The sexual and biological factors in younger women should be explored further in order to design appropriate HIV prevention interventions.

Factors associated with antiretroviral treatment initiation amongst HIV-positive individuals linked to care within a universal test and treat programme: early findings of the ANRS 12249 TasP trial in rural South Africa

Prompt uptake of antiretroviral treatment (ART) is essential to ensure the success of universal test and treat (UTT) strategies to prevent HIV transmission in high-prevalence settings. We describe ART initiation rates and associated factors within an ongoing UTT cluster-randomized trial in rural South Africa. HIV-positive individuals were offered immediate ART in the intervention arm vs. national guidelines recommended initiation (CD4≤350 cells/mm(3)) in the control arm. We used data collected up to July 2015 among the ART-eligible individuals linked to TasP clinics before January 2015. ART initiation rates at one (M1), three (M3) and six months (M6) from baseline visit were described by cluster and CD4 count strata (cells/mm(3)) and other eligibility criteria: ≤100; 100-200; 200-350; CD4>350 with WHO stage 3/4 or pregnancy; CD4>350 without WHO stage 3/4 or pregnancy. A Cox model accounting for covariate effect changes over time was used to assess factors associated with ART initiation. The 514 participants had a median [interquartile range] follow-up duration of 1.08 [0.69; 2.07] months until ART initiation or last visit. ART initiation rates at M1 varied substantially (36.9% in the group CD4>350 without WHO stage 3/4 or pregnancy, and 55.2-71.8% in the three groups with CD4≤350) but less at M6 (from 85.3% in the first group to 96.1-98.3% in the three other groups). Factors associated with lower ART initiation at M1 were a higher CD4 count and attending clinics with both high patient load and higher cluster HIV prevalence. After M1, having a regular partner was the only factor associated with higher likelihood of ART initiation. These findings suggest good ART uptake within a UTT setting, even among individuals with high CD4 count. However, inadequate staffing and healthcare professional practices could result in prioritizing ART initiation in patients with the lowest CD4 counts.

Community perceptions of repeat HIV-testing: experiences of the ANRS 12249 Treatment as Prevention trial in rural South Africa

In the context of the ANRS 12249 Treatment as Prevention (TasP) trial, we investigated perceptions of regular and repeat HIV-testing in rural KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa), an area of very high HIV prevalence and incidence. We conducted two qualitative studies, before (2010) and during the early implementation stages of the trial (2013-2014), to appreciate the evolution in community perceptions of repeat HIV-testing over this period of rapid changes in HIV-testing and treatment approaches. Repeated focus group discussions were organized with young adults, older adults and mixed groups. Repeat and regular HIV-testing was overall well perceived before, and well received during, trial implementation. Yet community members were not able to articulate reasons why people might want to test regularly or repeatedly, apart from individual sexual risk-taking. Repeat home-based HIV-testing was considered as feasible and convenient, and described as more acceptable than clinic-based HIV-testing, mostly because of privacy and confidentiality. However, socially regulated discourses around appropriate sexual behaviour and perceptions of stigma and prejudice regarding HIV and sexual risk-taking were consistently reported. This study suggests several avenues to improve HIV-testing acceptability, including implementing diverse and personalised approaches to HIV-testing and care, and providing opportunities for antiretroviral therapy initiation and care at home.

The HIV Epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa is Aging: Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa

We use the individual-level data from all available Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 27 sub-Saharan African countries conducted between 2003 and 2012 (40 population-based and nationally representative surveys in total) to calculate HIV testing consent rates and HIV prevalence for each country separately, as well as for the pooled sample. The pooled sample comprised of 427,130 individuals. In most countries HIV prevalence in adults aged 45 years and above is higher than in the total population. We further show that over the past decade HIV prevalence has increased in older age groups, while it has decreased in younger ones. While the age patterns of HIV consent rates vary across the 27 countries included in our sample, analysis of the pooled sample across all countries reveals a u-shaped relationship with lowest consent rates around age 35 years and higher consent rates among younger and older people. We argue that future DHS and other population-based HIV surveys should offer HIV testing to all adults without age limits.

From HIV infection to therapeutic response: a population-based longitudinal HIV cascade-of-care study in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Standard approaches to estimation of losses in the HIV cascade of care are typically cross-sectional and do not include the population stages before linkage to clinical care. We used indiviual-level longitudinal cascade data, transition by transition, including population stages, both to identify the health-system losses in the cascade and to show the differences in inference between standard methods and the longitudinal approach.

METHODS

We used non-parametric survival analysis to estimate a longitudinal HIV care cascade for a large population of people with HIV residing in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We linked data from a longitudinal population health surveillance (which is maintained by the Africa Health Research Institute) with patient records from the local public-sector HIV treatment programme (contained in an electronic clinical HIV treatment and care database, ARTemis). We followed up all people who had been newly detected as having HIV between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2011, across six cascade stages: three population stages (first positive HIV test, HIV status knowledge, and linkage to care) and three clinical stages (eligibility for antiretroviral therapy [ART], initiation of ART, and therapeutic response). We compared our estimates to cross-sectional cascades in the same population. We estimated the cumulative incidence of reaching a particular cascade stage at a specific time with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

FINDINGS

Our population consisted of 5205 individuals with HIV who were followed up for 24 031 person-years. We recorded 598 deaths. 4539 individuals gained knowledge of their positive HIV status, 2818 were linked to care, 2151 became eligible for ART, 1839 began ART, and 1456 had successful responses to therapy. We used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to adjust for censorship due to the end of data collection, and found that 8 years after testing positive in the population health surveillance, 16% had died. Among living patients, 82% knew their HIV status, 45% were linked to care, 39% were eligible for ART, 35% initiated ART, and 33% had reached therapeutic response. Median times to transition for these cascade stages were 52 months, 52 months, 20 months, 3 months, and 9 months, respectively. Compared with the population stages in the cascade, the transitions across the clinical stages were fast. Over calendar time, rates of linkage to care have decreased and patients presenting for the first time for care were, on average, healthier.

INTERPRETATION

HIV programmes should focus on linkage to care as the most important bottleneck in the cascade. Cascade estimation should be longitudinal rather than cross-sectional and start with the population stages preceding clinical care.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, PEPFAR.

Determinants of time from HIV infection to linkage-to-care in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To estimate time from HIV infection to linkage-to-care and its determinants. Linkage-to-care is usually assessed using the date of HIV diagnosis as the starting point for exposure time. However, timing of diagnosis is likely endogenous to linkage, leading to bias in linkage estimation.

DESIGN

We used longitudinal HIV serosurvey data from a large population-based HIV incidence cohort in KwaZulu-Natal (2004-2013) to estimate time of HIV infection. We linked these data to patient records from a public-sector HIV treatment and care program to determine time from infection to linkage (defined using the date of the first CD4 cell count).

METHODS

We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate time from infection to linkage and the effects of the following covariates on this time: sex, age, education, food security, socioeconomic status, area of residence, distance to clinics, knowledge of HIV status, and whether other household members have initiated antiretroviral therapy.

RESULTS

We estimated that it would take an average of 4.9 years for 50% of HIV seroconverters to be linked to care (95% confidence intervals: 4.2-5.7). Among all cohort members who were linked to care, the median CD4 cell count at linkage was 350 cells/μl (95% confidence interval: 330-380). Men and participants aged less than 30 years were found to have the slowest rates of linkage-to-care. Time to linkage became shorter over calendar time.

CONCLUSION

Average time from HIV infection to linkage-to-care is long and needs to be reduced to ensure that HIV treatment-as-prevention policies are effective. Targeted interventions for men and young individuals have the largest potential to improve linkage rates.

Trends in the burden of HIV mortality after roll-out of antiretroviral therapy in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: an observational community cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) substantially decreases morbidity and mortality in people living with HIV. In this study, we describe population-level trends in the adult life expectancy and trends in the residual burden of HIV mortality after the roll-out of a public sector ART programme in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, one of the populations with the most severe HIV epidemics in the world.

METHODS

Data come from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), an observational community cohort study in the uMkhanyakude district in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We used non-parametric survival analysis methods to estimate gains in the population-wide life expectancy at age 15 years since the introduction of ART, and the shortfall of the population-wide adult life expectancy compared with that of the HIV-negative population (ie, the life expectancy deficit). Life expectancy gains and deficits were further disaggregated by age and cause of death with demographic decomposition methods.

FINDINGS

Covering the calendar years 2001 through to 2014, we obtained information on 93 903 adults who jointly contribute 535 42 8 person-years of observation to the analyses and 9992 deaths. Since the roll-out of ART in 2004, adult life expectancy increased by 15·2 years for men (95% CI 12·4-17·8) and 17·2 years for women (14·5-20·2). Reductions in pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV-related mortality account for 79·7% of the total life expectancy gains in men (8·4 adult life-years), and 90·7% in women (12·8 adult life-years). For men, 9·5% is the result of a decline in external injuries. By 2014, the life expectancy deficit had decreased to 1·2 years for men (-2·9 to 5·8) and to 5·3 years for women (2·6-7·8). In 2011-14, pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV were responsible for 84·9% of the life expectancy deficit in men and 80·8% in women.

INTERPRETATION

The burden of HIV on adult mortality in this population is rapidly shrinking, but remains large for women, despite their better engagement with HIV-care services. Gains in adult life-years lived as well as the present life expectancy deficit are almost exclusively due to differences in mortality attributed to HIV and pulmonary tuberculosis.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institutes of Health.

The continuum of HIV care in South Africa: implications for achieving the second and third UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets

BACKGROUND

We characterize engagement with HIV care in South Africa in 2012 to identify areas for improvement towards achieving global 90-90-90 targets.

METHODS

Over 3.9 million CD4 cell count and 2.7 million viral load measurements reported in 2012 in the public sector were extracted from the national laboratory electronic database. The number of persons living with HIV (PLHIV), number and proportion in HIV care, on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and with viral suppression (viral load <400 copies/ml) were estimated and stratified by sex and age group. Modified Poisson regression approach was used to examine associations between sex, age group and viral suppression among persons on ART.

RESULTS

We estimate that among 6511 000 PLHIV in South Africa in 2012, 3300 000 individuals (50.7%) accessed care and 32.9% received ART. Although viral suppression was 73.7% among the treated population in 2012, the overall percentage of persons with viral suppression among all PLHIV was 23.8%. Linkage to HIV care was lower among men (38.5%) than among women (57.2%). Overall, 47.1% of those aged 0-14 years and 47.0% of those aged 15-49 years were linked to care compared with 56.2% among those aged above 50 years.

CONCLUSION

Around a quarter of all PLHIV have achieved viral suppression in South Africa. Men and younger persons have poorer linkage to HIV care. Expanding HIV testing, strengthening prompt linkage to care and further expansion of ART are needed for South Africa to reach the 90-90-90 target. Focus on these areas will reduce the transmission of new HIV infections and mortality in the general population.

From HIV infection to therapeutic response: a population-based longitudinal HIV cascade-of-care study in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Standard approaches to estimation of losses in the HIV cascade of care are typically cross-sectional and do not include the population stages before linkage to clinical care. We used indiviual-level longitudinal cascade data, transition by transition, including population stages, both to identify the health-system losses in the cascade and to show the differences in inference between standard methods and the longitudinal approach.

METHODS

We used non-parametric survival analysis to estimate a longitudinal HIV care cascade for a large population of people with HIV residing in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We linked data from a longitudinal population health surveillance (which is maintained by the Africa Health Research Institute) with patient records from the local public-sector HIV treatment programme (contained in an electronic clinical HIV treatment and care database, ARTemis). We followed up all people who had been newly detected as having HIV between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2011, across six cascade stages: three population stages (first positive HIV test, HIV status knowledge, and linkage to care) and three clinical stages (eligibility for antiretroviral therapy [ART], initiation of ART, and therapeutic response). We compared our estimates to cross-sectional cascades in the same population. We estimated the cumulative incidence of reaching a particular cascade stage at a specific time with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

FINDINGS

Our population consisted of 5205 individuals with HIV who were followed up for 24 031 person-years. We recorded 598 deaths. 4539 individuals gained knowledge of their positive HIV status, 2818 were linked to care, 2151 became eligible for ART, 1839 began ART, and 1456 had successful responses to therapy. We used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to adjust for censorship due to the end of data collection, and found that 8 years after testing positive in the population health surveillance, 16% had died. Among living patients, 82% knew their HIV status, 45% were linked to care, 39% were eligible for ART, 35% initiated ART, and 33% had reached therapeutic response. Median times to transition for these cascade stages were 52 months, 52 months, 20 months, 3 months, and 9 months, respectively. Compared with the population stages in the cascade, the transitions across the clinical stages were fast. Over calendar time, rates of linkage to care have decreased and patients presenting for the first time for care were, on average, healthier.

INTERPRETATION

HIV programmes should focus on linkage to care as the most important bottleneck in the cascade. Cascade estimation should be longitudinal rather than cross-sectional and start with the population stages preceding clinical care.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, PEPFAR.

Communication about HIV and death: Maternal reports of primary school-aged children's questions after maternal HIV disclosure in rural South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Children's understanding of HIV and death in epidemic regions is under-researched. We investigated children's death-related questions post maternal HIV-disclosure. Secondary aims examined characteristics associated with death-related questions and consequences for children's mental health.

METHODS

HIV-infected mothers (N = 281) were supported to disclose their HIV status to their children (6-10 years) in an uncontrolled pre-post intervention evaluation. Children's questions post-disclosure were collected by maternal report, 1-2 weeks post-disclosure. 61/281 children asked 88 death-related questions, which were analysed qualitatively. Logistic regression analyses examined characteristics associated with death-related questions. Using the parent-report Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL), linear regression analysis examined differences in total CBCL problems by group, controlling for baseline.

RESULTS

Children's questions were grouped into three themes: 'threats'; 'implications' and 'clarifications'. Children were most concerned about the threat of death, mother's survival, and prior family deaths. In multivariate analysis variables significantly associated with asking death-related questions included an absence of regular remittance to the mother (AOR 0.25 [CI 0.10, 0.59] p = 0.002), mother reporting the child's initial reaction to disclosure being "frightened" (AOR 6.57 [CI 2.75, 15.70] p=<0.001) and level of disclosure (full/partial) to the child (AOR 2.55 [CI 1.28, 5.06] p = 0.008). Controlling for significant variables and baseline, all children showed improvements on the CBCL post-intervention; with no significant differences on total problems scores post-intervention (β -0.096 SE1.366 t = -0.07 p = 0.944).

DISCUSSION

The content of questions children asked following disclosure indicate some understanding of HIV and, for almost a third of children, its potential consequence for parental death. Level of maternal disclosure and stability of financial support to the family may facilitate or inhibit discussions about death post-disclosure. Communication about death did not have immediate negative consequences on child behaviour according to maternal report.

CONCLUSION

In sub-Saharan Africa, given exposure to death at young ages, meeting children's informational needs could increase their resilience.

Population-level decline in BMI and systolic blood pressure following mass HIV treatment: Evidence from rural KwaZulu-Natal

OBJECTIVE

Clinic-based studies have shown that patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) gain weight after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). This study aimed to determine whether the scale-up of ART was associated with a population-level increase in body mass index (BMI) and blood pressure (BP) in a community with high HIV and obesity prevalence.

METHODS

A household survey was conducted in rural KwaZulu-Natal before ART scale-up (in 2004) and when ART coverage had reached 25% (in 2010). Anthropometric data was linked with HIV surveillance data.

RESULTS

Mean BMI decreased in women from 29.9 to 29.1 kg/m² (P = 0.002) and in men from 24.2 to 23.0 kg/m² (P < 0.001). Similarly, overweight and obesity prevalence declined significantly in both sexes. Mean systolic BP decreased from 123.0 to 118.2 mm Hg (P < 0.001) among women and 128.4 to 123.2 mm Hg (P < 0·001) among men.

CONCLUSIONS

Large-scale ART provision is likely to have caused a decline in BMI at the population level, because ART has improved the survival of those with substantial HIV-related weight loss. The ART scale-up may have created an unexpected opportunity to sustain population-level weight loss in communities with high HIV and obesity prevalence though targeted lifestyle and nutrition interventions.

Traditional health practitioners' management of HIV/AIDS in rural South Africa in the era of widespread antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

Traditional health practitioners (THPs) have been identified as a key local resource in the fight against human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in South Africa. However, their approaches to the treatment of people living with HIV (PLHIV) have been met with scepticism by some biomedical practitioners amid increasing access to antiretroviral therapy (ART).

OBJECTIVE

In light of this ambivalence, this study aims to document and identify treatment approaches of THPs to the management of illness among PLHIV in the current era of widespread access to ART.

METHODS

The study was conducted as part of a larger trial of Treatment as Prevention (TasP) in rural northern Kwa-Zulu Natal, intended to treat PLHIV regardless of CD4 count. Nine THPs were enrolled using purposive and snowballing techniques. Repeat group discussions, triangulated with community walks and photovoice techniques, were conducted. A thematic analysis approach was used to analyse the data.

RESULTS

Eight of the nine THPs had received training in biomedical aspects of HIV. THPs showed a multilayered decision-making process in managing illness among PLHIV, influenced by the attributes and choices of the THPs. THPs assessed and managed illness among PLHIV based on THP training in HIV/AIDS, THP type, as well as knowledge and experience in the traditional healing practice. Management of illness depended on the patients' report of their HIV status or willingness to test for HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

THPs' approaches to illness in PLHIV appear to be shifting in light of increasing exposure to HIV/AIDS-related information. Importantly, disclosure of HIV status plays a major role in THPs' management of illness among PLHIV, as well as linkage to HIV testing and care for their patients. Therefore, THPs can potentially enhance the success of ART for PLHIV when HIV status is known.

Rising Levels of HIV Infection in Older Adults in Eastern Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

With the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment across Africa, many people are living longer with HIV. Understanding the ageing of the HIV cohort and sexual behaviour among older adults are important for appropriately responding to the changing demographics of people living with HIV.

METHODS

We used data from a large population-based open cohort in eastern Zimbabwe to examine HIV prevalence trends and incidence among those aged 45 years and older. Five survey rounds have been completed between 1998 and 2011. Incidence was analysed using midpoint between last negative and first positive HIV test.

RESULTS

Across the survey rounds, 13,071 individuals were followed for 57,676 person years. While HIV prevalence among people aged 15-44 has fallen across the five rounds, HIV prevalence among those aged 45-54 has increased since the 2006-08 survey round. In the 2009-11 round, HIV prevalence among men aged 45-54 was 23.4% compared to 11.0% among those aged 15-44. HIV positive people aged 45-54 now represent more than 20% of all those living with HIV in Manicaland. Among those aged 45 years and older, there were 85 seroconversions in 11,999 person years for an HIV incidence of 0.708 per 100 person years. Analysis of cohort data and assessment of behavioural risk factors for HIV infection among older people shows significantly lower levels of condom use among older adults and a number of seroconversions past the age of 50.

CONCLUSIONS

The cohort of people living with HIV is ageing in Zimbabwe and the behaviour of older adults puts them at risk of HIV infection. Older adults must be included in both HIV prevention and treatment programs.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the adolescent HIV continuum of care in South Africa: the Cresting Wave

CONTEXT

South Africa has the most HIV infections of any country in the world, yet little is known about the adolescent continuum of care from HIV diagnosis through viral suppression.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the adolescent HIV continuum of care in South Africa.

DATA SOURCES

We searched PubMed, Google Scholar and online conference proceedings from International AIDS Society (IAS), International AIDS Conference (AIDS) and Conference on Retrovirology and Opportunistic Infections (CROI) from 1 January 2005 to 31 July 2015.

DATA EXTRACTION

We selected published literature containing South African cohorts and epidemiological data reporting primary data for youth (15-24 years of age) at any stage of the HIV continuum of care (ie, diagnosis, treatment, retention, viral suppression). For the meta-analysis we used six sources for retention in care and nine for viral suppression.

RESULTS

Among the estimated 867 283 HIV-infected youth from 15 to 24 years old in South Africa in 2013, 14% accessed antiretroviral therapy (ART). Of those on therapy, ∼83% were retained in care and 81% were virally suppressed. Overall, we estimate that 10% of HIV-infected youth in South Africa in 2013 were virally suppressed.

LIMITATIONS

This analysis relies on published data from large mostly urban South Africa cohorts limiting the generalisability to all adolescents.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a large increase in ART programmes in South Africa that have relatively high retention rates and viral suppression rates among HIV-infected youth, only a small percentage are virally suppressed, largely due to low numbers of adolescents and young adults accessing ART.

The Effect of HIV and the Modifying Effect of Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) on Body Mass Index (BMI) and Blood Pressure Levels in Rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

High BMI and blood pressure are leading chronic disease risk factors in South Africa. Longterm effects of HIV and ART on adiposity and blood pressure are poorly understood, and direct comparisons of risk factor trajectories in HIV- versus HIV+ populations are rare.

METHODS

In 2003 and 2010, height, weight, and blood pressure were recorded in a study population (n = 505) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (30% adult HIV prevalence). We modeled change in BMI and BP longitudinally in HIV- individuals (n = 315), seroconverters (n = 32), HIV+ patients not on ART (HIV+ART-; n = 52), HIV+ patients on ART for 0-<2 years as of 2010 (HIV+ART0-<2 yrs; n = 18), patients on ART for 2-5 years (HIV+ART2-5yrs; n = 44), and a subgroup with unknown HIV status (n = 44). Difference-in-differences were assessed in reference to the HIV- population.

RESULTS

Between 2003 and 2010, BMI increased significantly in the HIV- group, by 0.874 (95% CI 0.339, 1.41; p = 0.001), to 30.4. BMI drop was significantly greater in HIV+ART0-<2yrs than in HIV+ART2-5yrs (p = 0.005). DID in BMI in HIV+ART0-<2yrs versus the reference was -5.21 (95% CI -7.53, -2.90; p = 0.001), and DID in HIV+ART2-5yrs versus reference was -1.35 (95% CI -2.89, 0.189; p = 0.086). DID in SBP in HIV+ART-vs HIV- DID was -7.55 mmHg (95% CI -13.2 to -1.90; p = 0.009).

CONCLUSION

Short-term ART (0-<2 years) was associated with larger weight loss than either no ART or long-term ART. Once on ART for 2+ years, individuals 'caught up' on weight gain with the HIV- population. Our results showcase the importance of health system readiness to address the burgeoning double burden of disease in South Africa.

Can the Heterosexual HIV Epidemic be Eliminated in South Africa Using Combination Prevention? A Modeling Analysis

Little is known about how combining efficacious interventions for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention could lead to HIV elimination. We used an agent-based simulation model, the HIV calibrated dynamic model, to assess the potential for HIV elimination in South Africa. We examined several scenarios (from continuation of the current status quo to perfect achievement of targets) with differing combinations of male condom use, adult male circumcision, HIV testing, and early antiretroviral therapy (ART). We varied numerous parameters, including the proportion of adult males circumcised, the frequency of condom use during sex acts, acceptance of HIV testing, linkage to health care, criteria for ART initiation, ART viral suppression rates, and loss to follow-up. Maintaining current levels of combination prevention would lead to increasing HIV incidence and prevalence in South Africa, while the perfect combination scenario was projected to eliminate HIV on a 50-year time scale from 2013 to 2063. Perfecting testing and treatment, without changing condom use or circumcision rates, resulted in an 89% reduction in HIV incidence but not elimination. Universal adult male circumcision alone resulted in a 21% incidence reduction within 20 years. Substantial decreases in HIV incidence are possible from sufficient uptake of both primary prevention and ART, but with continuation of the status quo, HIV elimination in South Africa is unlikely within a 50-year time scale.

The Effect of Antiretroviral Treatment on Health Care Utilization in Rural South Africa: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The effect of the rapid scale-up of vertical antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for HIV in sub-Saharan Africa on the overall health system is under intense debate. Some have argued that these programs have reduced access for people suffering from diseases unrelated to HIV because ART programs have drained human and physical resources from other parts of the health system; others have claimed that the investments through ART programs have strengthened the general health system and the population health impacts of ART have freed up health care capacity for the treatment of diseases that are not related to HIV. To establish the population-level impact of ART programs on health care utilization in the public-sector health system, we compared trends in health care utilization among HIV-infected people receiving and not receiving ART with HIV-uninfected people during a period of rapid ART scale-up.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used data from the Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Population Health, which annually elicited information on health care utilization from all surveillance participants over the period 2009-2012 (N = 32,319). We determined trends in hospitalization, and public-sector and private-sector primary health care (PHC) clinic visits for HIV-infected and -uninfected people over a time period of rapid ART scale-up (2009-2012) in this community. We regressed health care utilization on HIV status and ART status in different calendar years, controlling for sex, age, and area of residence. The proportion of people who reported to have visited a public-sector primary health care (PHC) clinic in the last 6 months increased significantly over the period 2009-2012, for both HIV-infected people (from 59% to 67%; p<0.001), and HIV-uninfected people (from 41% to 47%; p<0.001). In contrast, the proportion of HIV-infected people visiting a private-sector PHC clinic declined from 22% to 12% (p<0.001) and hospitalization rates declined from 128 to 82 per 1000 PY (p<0.001). For HIV-uninfected people, the proportion visiting a private-sector PHC clinic declined from 16% to 9%, and hospitalization rates declined from 78 to 44 per 1000 PY (p<0.001). After controlling for potential confounding factors, all trends remained of similar magnitude and significance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that the ART scale-up in this high HIV prevalence community has shifted health care utilization from hospitals and private-sector primary care to public-sector primary care. Remarkably, this shift is observed for both HIV-infected and -uninfected populations, supporting and extending hypotheses of 'therapeutic citizenship' whereby HIV-infected patients receiving ART facilitate primary care access for family and community members. One explanation of our findings is that ART has improved the capacity or quality of primary care in this community and, as a consequence, increasingly met overall health care needs at the primary care level rather than at the secondary level. Future research needs to confirm this causal interpretation of our findings using qualitative work to understand causal mechanisms or quasi-experimental quantitative studies to increase the strength of causal inference.

Access to HIV care in the context of universal test and treat: challenges within the ANRS 12249 TasP cluster-randomized trial in rural South Africa

Introduction

We aimed to quantify and identify associated factors of linkage to HIV care following home-based HIV counselling and testing (HBHCT) in the ongoing ANRS 12249 treatment-as-prevention (TasP) cluster-randomized trial in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Methods

Individuals ≥16 years were offered HBHCT; those who were identified HIV positive were referred to cluster-based TasP clinics and offered antiretroviral treatment (ART) immediately (five clusters) or according to national guidelines (five clusters). HIV care was also available in the local Department of Health (DoH) clinics. Linkage to HIV care was defined as TasP or DoH clinic attendance within three months of referral among adults not in HIV care at referral. Associated factors were identified using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for trial arm.

Results

Overall, 1323 HIV-positive adults (72.9% women) not in HIV care at referral were included, of whom 36.9% (n=488) linked to care <3 months of referral (similar by sex). In adjusted analyses (n=1222), individuals who had never been in HIV care before referral were significantly less likely to link to care than those who had previously been in care (<33% vs. >42%, p<0.001). Linkage to care was lower in students (adjusted odds-ratio [aOR]=0.47; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.24–0.92) than in employed adults, in adults who completed secondary school (aOR=0.68; CI 0.49–0.96) or at least some secondary school (aOR=0.59; CI 0.41–0.84) versus ≤ primary school, in those who lived at 1 to 2 km (aOR=0.58; CI 0.44–0.78) or 2–5 km from the nearest TasP clinic (aOR=0.57; CI 0.41–0.77) versus <1 km, and in those who were referred to clinic after ≥2 contacts (aOR=0.75; CI 0.58–0.97) versus those referred at the first contact. Linkage to care was higher in adults who reported knowing an HIV-positive family member (aOR=1.45; CI 1.12–1.86) versus not, and in those who said that they would take ART as soon as possible if they were diagnosed HIV positive (aOR=2.16; CI 1.13–4.10) versus not.

Conclusions

Fewer than 40% of HIV-positive adults not in care at referral were linked to HIV care within three months of HBHCT in the TasP trial. Achieving universal test and treat coverage will require innovative interventions to support linkage to HIV care.

Antiretroviral Therapy to Prevent HIV Acquisition in Serodiscordant Couples in a Hyperendemic Community in Rural South Africa

We assessed the role of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition in serodiscordant couples in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. ART use was associated with a 77% reduction in HIV acquisition risk, suggesting ART is highly effective for prevention in population-based settings.

Background. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was highly efficacious in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in stable serodiscordant couples in the HPTN-052 study, a resource-intensive randomized controlled trial with near-perfect ART adherence and mutual HIV status disclosure among all participating couples. However, minimal evidence exists of the effectiveness of ART in preventing HIV acquisition in stable serodiscordant couples in “real-life” population-based settings in hyperendemic communities of sub-Saharan Africa, where health systems are typically resource-poor and overburdened, adherence to ART is often low, and partners commonly do not disclose their HIV status to each other.

Methods. Data arose from a population-based open cohort in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 17 016 HIV-uninfected individuals present between January 2005 and December 2013 were included. Interval-censored time-updated proportional hazards regression was used to assess how the ART status affected HIV transmission risk in stable serodiscordant relationships.

Results. We observed 1619 HIV seroconversions in 17 016 individuals, over 60 349 person-years follow-up time. During the follow-up period, 1846 individuals had an HIV-uninfected and 196 had an HIV-infected stable partner HIV incidence was 3.8/100 person-years (PY) among individuals with an HIV-infected partner (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3–5.6), 1.4/100 PY (.4–3.5) among those with HIV-infected partners receiving ART, and 5.6/100 PY (3.5–8.4) among those with HIV-infected partners not receiving ART. Use of ART was associated with a 77% decrease in HIV acquisition risk among serodiscordant couples (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% CI, .07–.80).

Conclusions. ART initiation was associated with a very large reduction in HIV acquisition in serodiscordant couples in rural KwaZulu-Natal. However, this “real-life” effect was substantially lower than the effect observed in the HPTN-052 trial. To eliminate HIV transmission in serodiscordant couples, additional prevention interventions are probably needed.

Understanding Specific Contexts of Antiretroviral Therapy Adherence in Rural South Africa: A Thematic Analysis of Digital Stories from a Community with High HIV Prevalence

Near-perfect adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is required to achieve the best possible prevention and treatment outcomes. Yet, there have been particular concerns about the challenges of adherence among patients living in resource-limited settings in sub-Saharan Africa. The primary objective of this study was to explore adherence in a low-resourced, rural community of high HIV prevalence in South Africa and to identify specific individual and structural factors that can either challenge or support adherence in this context. We applied digital stories as a qualitative research tool to gain insights into personal contexts of HIV and ART adherence. Through an inductive thematic analysis of twenty story texts, soundtracks and drawings, we explored experiences, understandings, and contexts of the participants and identified potential barriers and facilitators for those on lifelong treatment. We found that many of the stories reflected a growing confidence in the effectiveness of ART, which should be viewed as a key facilitator to successful adherence since this attitude can promote disclosure and boost access to social support. Nevertheless, stories also highlighted the complexity of the issues that individuals and households face as they deal with HIV and ART in this setting and it is clear that an overburdened local healthcare system has often struggled to meet the demands of a rapidly expanding epidemic and to provide the necessary medical and emotional support. Our analysis suggests several opportunities for further research and the design of novel health interventions to support optimal adherence. Firstly, future health promotion campaigns should encourage individuals to test together, or at least accompany each other for testing, to encourage social support from the outset. Additionally, home-based testing and ART club interventions might be recommended to make it easier for individuals to adhere to their treatment regimens and to provide a sense of support and solidarity.

Spatial Distributions of HIV Infection in an Endemic Area of Western Kenya: Guiding Information for Localized HIV Control and Prevention

HIV is still a major health problem in developing countries. Even though high HIV-risk-taking behaviors have been reported in African fishing villages, local distribution patterns of HIV infection in the communities surrounding these villages have not been thoroughly analyzed. The objective of this study was to investigate the geographical distribution patterns of HIV infection in communities surrounding African fishing villages. In 2011, we applied age- and sex-stratified random sampling to collect 1,957 blood samples from 42,617 individuals registered in the Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Mbita, which is located on the shore of Lake Victoria in western Kenya. We used these samples to evaluate existing antibody detection assays for several infectious diseases, including HIV antibody titers. Based on the results of the assays, we evaluated the prevalence of HIV infection according to sex, age, and altitude of participating households. We also used Kulldorff’s spatial scan statistic to test for HIV clustering in the study area. The prevalence of HIV at our study site was 25.3%. Compared with the younger age group (15–19 years), adults aged 30–34 years were 6.71 times more likely to be HIV-positive, and the estimated HIV-positive population among women was 1.43 times larger than among men. Kulldorff’s spatial scan statistic detected one marginally significant (P = 0.055) HIV-positive and one significant HIV-negative cluster (P = 0.047) in the study area. These results suggest a homogeneous HIV distribution in the communities surrounding fishing villages. In addition to individual behavior, more complex and diverse factors related to the social and cultural environment can contribute to a homogeneous distribution pattern of HIV infection outside of African fishing villages. To reduce rates of transmission in HIV-endemic areas, HIV prevention and control programs optimized for the local environment need to be developed.

"It is better to die": experiences of traditional health practitioners within the HIV treatment as prevention trial communities in rural South Africa (ANRS 12249 TasP trial)

The ANRS 12249 Treatment-as-Prevention (TasP) cluster-randomized trial in rural South Africa uses a "test and treat" approach. Home-based testing services and antiretroviral treatment initiation satellite clinics were implemented in every cluster as part of the trial. A social science research agenda was nested within TasP with the aim of understanding the social, economic and contextual factors that affect individuals, households, communities and health systems with respect to TasP. Considering the rural nature of the trial setting, we sought to understand community perceptions and experiences of the TasP Trial interventions as seen through the eyes of traditional health practitioners (THPs). A qualitative study design was adopted using four repeat focus group discussions conducted with nine THPs, combined with community walks and photo-voice techniques, over a period of 18 months. A descriptive, interpretive and explanatory approach to analysis was adopted. Findings indicate that THPs engaged with the home-based testing services and HIV clinics established for TasP. Specifically, home-based testing services were perceived as relatively successful in increasing access to HIV testing. A major gap observed by THPs was linkage to HIV clinics. Most of their clients, and some of the THPs themselves, found it difficult to use HIV clinics due to fear of labelling, stigma and discrimination, and the ensuing personal implications of unsolicited disclosure. On the one hand, a growing number of patients diagnosed with HIV have found sanctuary with THPs as alternatives to clinics. On the other hand, THPs in turn have been struggling to channel patients suspected of HIV into clinics through referrals. Therefore, acceptability of the TasP test and treat approach by THPs is a major boost to the intervention, but further success can be achieved through strengthened ties with communities to combat stigma and effectively link patients into HIV care, including partnerships with THPs themselves.

Time and Money: The True Costs of Health Care Utilization for Patients Receiving "Free" HIV/Tuberculosis Care and Treatment in Rural KwaZulu-Natal

BACKGROUND

HIV and tuberculosis (TB) services are provided free of charge in many sub-Saharan African countries, but patients still incur costs.

METHODS

Patient-exit interviews were conducted in primary health care clinics in rural South Africa with representative samples of 200 HIV-infected patients enrolled in a pre-antiretroviral treatment (pre-ART) program, 300 patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART), and 300 patients receiving TB treatment. For each group, we calculated health expenditures across different spending categories, time spent traveling to and using services, and how patients financed their spending. Associations between patient group and costs were assessed in multivariate regression models.

RESULTS

Total monthly health expenditures [1 USD = 7.3 South African Rand (ZAR)] were ZAR 171 [95% confidence interval (CI): 134 to 207] for pre-ART, ZAR 164 (95% CI: 141 to 187) for ART, and ZAR 122 (95% CI: 105 to 140) for TB patients (P = 0.01). Total monthly time costs (in hours) were 3.4 (95% CI: 3.3 to 3.5) for pre-ART, 5.0 (95% CI: 4.7 to 5.3) for ART, and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9 to 3.4) for TB patients (P < 0.01). Although overall patient costs were similar across groups, pre-ART patients spent on average ZAR 29.2 more on traditional healers and ZAR 25.9 more on chemists and private doctors than ART patients, whereas ART patients spent ZAR 34.0 more than pre-ART patients on transport to clinics (P < 0.05 for all results). Thirty-one percent of pre-ART, 39% of ART, and 41% of TB patients borrowed money or sold assets to finance health care.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients receiving nominally free care for HIV/TB face large private costs, commonly leading to financial distress. Subsidized transport, fewer clinic visits, and drug pick-up points closer to home could reduce costs for ART patients, potentially improving retention and adherence. Large expenditure on alternative care among pre-ART patients suggests that transitioning patients to ART earlier, as under HIV treatment-as-prevention policies, may not substantially increase patients' financial burden.

Determinants of antiretroviral therapy coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa

Among 35 million people living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in 2013, only 37% had access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). Despite global concerted efforts to provide the universal access to the ART treatment, the ART coverage varies among countries and regions. At present, there is a lack of systematic empirical analyses on factors that determine the ART coverage. Therefore, the current study aimed to identify the determinants of the ART coverage in 41 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. It employed statistical analyses for this purpose. Four elements, namely, the HIV prevalence, the level of national income, the level of medical expenditure and the number of nurses, were hypothesised to determine the ART coverage. The findings revealed that among the four proposed determinants only the HIV prevalence had a statistically significant impact on the ART coverage. In other words, the HIV prevalence was the sole determinant of the ART coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Adjusting HIV prevalence estimates for non-participation: an application to demographic surveillance

INTRODUCTION

HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status.

RESULTS

For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27-40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15-35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who participated in testing, and 18% estimated with imputation. We provide new confidence intervals that correct for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is unknown and requires estimation.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirm the feasibility and value of adopting selection models to account for missing data in population-based HIV surveys and surveillance systems. Elements of survey design, such as interviewer identity, present the opportunity to adopt this approach in routine applications. Where non-participation is high, true confidence intervals are much wider than those generated by standard approaches to dealing with missing data suggest.

Strengthening HIV surveillance in the antiretroviral therapy era: rationale and design of a longitudinal study to monitor HIV prevalence and incidence in the uMgungundlovu District, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

South Africa has over 6,000,000 HIV infected individuals and the province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) is the most severely affected. As public health initiatives to better control the HIV epidemic are implemented, timely, detailed and robust surveillance data are needed to monitor, evaluate and inform the programmatic interventions and policies over time. We describe the rationale and design of the HIV Incidence Provincial Surveillance System (HIPSS) to monitor HIV prevalence and incidence.

METHODS/DESIGN

The household-based survey will include a sample of men and women from two sub-districts of the uMgungundlovu municipality (Vulindlela and the Greater Edendale) of KZN, South Africa. The study is designed as two sequential cross-sectional surveys of 10,000 randomly selected individuals aged 15-49 years to be conducted one year apart. From the cross sectional surveys, two sequential cohorts of HIV negative individuals aged 15-35 years will be followed-up one year later to measure the primary outcome of HIV incidence. Secondary outcomes include the laboratory measurements for pulmonary tuberculosis, sexually transmitted infections and evaluating tests for estimating population-level HIV incidence. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) access, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and CD4 cell counts in HIV positive individuals will assess the effectiveness of the HIV treatment cascade. Household and individual-level socio-demographic characteristics, exposure to HIV programmatic interventions and risk behaviours will be assessed as predictors of HIV incidence. The incidence rate ratio of the two cohorts will be calculated to quantify the change in HIV incidence between consecutive samples. In anticipation of better availability of population-level HIV prevention and treatment programmes leading to decreases in HIV incidence, the sample size provides 84% power to detect a reduction of 30% in the HIV incidence rate between surveys.

DISCUSSION

The results from HIPSS will provide critical data regarding HIV prevalence and incidence in this community and will establish whether HIV prevention and treatment efforts in a "real world", non-trial setting have an impact on HIV incidence at a population level. Importantly, the study design and methods will inform future methods for HIV surveillance.

Mass HIV Treatment and Sex Disparities in Life Expectancy: Demographic Surveillance in Rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

Women have better patient outcomes in HIV care and treatment than men in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed--at the population level--whether and to what extent mass HIV treatment is associated with changes in sex disparities in adult life expectancy, a summary metric of survival capturing mortality across the full cascade of HIV care. We also determined sex-specific trends in HIV mortality and the distribution of HIV-related deaths in men and women prior to and at each stage of the clinical cascade.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data were collected on all deaths occurring from 2001 to 2011 in a large population-based surveillance cohort (52,964 women and 45,688 men, ages 15 y and older) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy (93% response rate). Demographic data were linked at the individual level to clinical records from the public sector HIV treatment and care program that serves the region. Annual rates of HIV-related mortality were assessed for men and women separately, and female-to-male rate ratios were estimated in exponential hazard models. Sex-specific trends in adult life expectancy and HIV-cause-deleted adult life expectancy were calculated. The proportions of HIV deaths that accrued to men and women at different stages in the HIV cascade of care were estimated annually. Following the beginning of HIV treatment scale-up in 2004, HIV mortality declined among both men and women. Female adult life expectancy increased from 51.3 y (95% CI 49.7, 52.8) in 2003 to 64.5 y (95% CI 62.7, 66.4) in 2011, a gain of 13.2 y. Male adult life expectancy increased from 46.9 y (95% CI 45.6, 48.2) in 2003 to 55.9 y (95% CI 54.3, 57.5) in 2011, a gain of 9.0 y. The gap between female and male adult life expectancy doubled, from 4.4 y in 2003 to 8.6 y in 2011, a difference of 4.3 y (95% CI 0.9, 7.6). For women, HIV mortality declined from 1.60 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.46, 1.75) in 2003 to 0.56 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.48, 0.65) in 2011. For men, HIV-related mortality declined from 1.71 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.55, 1.88) to 0.76 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.67, 0.87) in the same period. The female-to-male rate ratio for HIV mortality declined from 0.93 (95% CI 0.82-1.07) in 2003 to 0.73 (95% CI 0.60-0.89) in 2011, a statistically significant decline (p = 0.046). In 2011, 57% and 41% of HIV-related deaths occurred among men and women, respectively, who had never sought care for HIV in spite of the widespread availability of free HIV treatment. The results presented here come from a poor rural setting in southern Africa with high HIV prevalence and high HIV treatment coverage; broader generalizability is unknown. Additionally, factors other than HIV treatment scale-up may have influenced population mortality trends.

CONCLUSIONS

Mass HIV treatment has been accompanied by faster declines in HIV mortality among women than men and a growing female-male disparity in adult life expectancy at the population level. In 2011, over half of male HIV deaths occurred in men who had never sought clinical HIV care. Interventions to increase HIV testing and linkage to care among men are urgently needed.

Change of treatment guidelines and evolution of ART initiation in rural South Africa: data of a large HIV care and treatment programme

Background

While WHO recommendations are to treat people earlier and earlier, it will considerably increase the number of HIV infected people eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART). In South Africa, a country which carries one of the highest HIV burden worldwide, very few studies are available on the impact of the ART guidelines on time to ART initiation in both individuals with low CD4 count and those newly eligible for ART. We thus aimed to describe ART initiation percentages in a large HIV programme in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, according to the temporal changes of national ART eligibility guidelines from 2007 to 2012.

Methods

Adults who accessed the decentralized Hlabisa HIV treatment programme in 2007–2012 were included. Three periods following the temporal change of ART eligibility guidelines were defined (Period 1: until April 2010; Period 2: April 2010 - July 2011; Period 3: from August 2011). Percentages of ART initiation within three months of programme entry were estimated in men, in women of childbearing age (<40 years old) and in older women, and stratifying by CD4 count. Trend tests and logistic regression models were used to study the effects of change of guidelines on ART initiation percentages.

Results

In individuals with CD4 count ≤200 cells/μL (N = 5709 men, N = 6743 women <40 years old and N = 2017 older women), percentages of ART initiation did not differ over time (p trend = 0.25; 0.28; and 0.14, respectively). In individuals with CD4 count = 201–350 cells/μL (N = 2680 men, N = 6086 women <40 years old and N = 1415 older women), percentages of ART initiation significantly increased over time (p trend <0.01 for the three groups): from 6 % in Period 1 to 20 % in Period 2 to 40 % in Period 3 in women of childbearing age, and from 7 % to 8-10 % to 42 % in men and in older women.

Conclusions

As temporal changes of guidelines, percentages of ART initiation significantly increased in newly ART eligible people and did not decrease in individuals with very low CD4 counts. It will be crucial to continue verifying the evolution of these percentages of ART initiation with future recommendations reaching near-to-universal access to ART, to ensure that individuals most in need of ART receive it.

The effect of maternal and child early life factors on grade repetition among HIV exposed and unexposed children in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Receiving an education is essential for children living in poverty to fulfil their potential. Success in the early years of schooling is important as children who repeat grade one are particularly at risk for future dropout. We examined early life factors associated with grade repetition through logistic regression and explored reasons for repeating a grade through parent report. In 2012-2014 we re-enrolled children aged 7-11 years in rural KwaZulu-Natal who had been part of an early life intervention. Of the 894 children included, 43.1% had repeated a grade, of which 62.9% were boys. Higher maternal education (aOR 0.44; 95% CI 0.2-0.9) and being further along in the birth order (aOR 0.46; 95% CI 0.3-0.9) reduced the odds of grade repetition. In addition, maternal HIV status had the strongest effect on grade repetition for girls (aOR 2.17; 95% CI 1.3-3.8), whereas for boys, it was a fridge in the household (aOR 0.59; 95% CI 0.4-1.0). Issues with school readiness was the most common reason for repeating a grade according to parental report (126/385, 32.7%), while school disruptions was an important reason among HIV-exposed boys. Further research is needed to elucidate the pathways through which HIV affects girls' educational outcomes and potentially impacts on disrupted schooling for boys. Our results also highlight the importance of preparation for schooling in the early years of life; future research could focus on gaining a better understanding of mechanisms by which to improve early school success, including increased quality of reception year and investigating the protective effect of older siblings.

Use of antiretroviral therapy in households and risk of HIV acquisition in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 2004–12: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Studies of HIV-serodiscordant couples in stable sexual relationships have provided convincing evidence that antiretroviral therapy can prevent the transmission of HIV. We aimed to quantify the preventive effect of a public-sector HIV treatment and care programme based in a community with poor knowledge and disclosure of HIV status, frequent migration, late marriage, and multiple partnerships. Specifically, we assessed whether an individual's hazard of HIV acquisition was associated with antiretroviral therapy coverage among household members of the opposite sex.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, we linked patients' records from a public-sector HIV treatment programme in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, with population-based HIV surveillance data collected between 2004 and 2012. We used information about coresidence to construct estimates of HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy coverage for each household. We then regressed the time to HIV seroconversion for 14,505 individuals, who were HIV-uninfected at baseline and individually followed up over time regarding their HIV status, on opposite-sex household antiretroviral therapy coverage, controlling for household HIV prevalence and a range of other potential confounders.

FINDINGS

2037 individual HIV seroconversions were recorded during 54,845 person-years of follow-up. For each increase of ten percentage points in opposite-sex household antiretroviral therapy coverage, the HIV acquisition hazard was reduced by 6% (95% CI 2–9), after controlling for other factors. This effect size translates into large reductions in HIV acquisition hazards when household antiretroviral therapy coverage is substantially increased. For example, an increase of 50 percentage points in household antiretroviral therapy coverage (eg, from 20% to 70%) reduced the hazard of HIV acquisition by 26% (95% CI 9–39).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings provide further evidence that antiretroviral therapy significantly reduces the risk of onward transmission of HIV in a real-world setting in sub-Saharan Africa. Awareness that antiretroviral therapy can prevent transmission to coresident sexual partners could be a powerful motivator for HIV testing and antiretroviral treatment uptake, retention, and adherence.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust and National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (US National Institutes of Health).