Populating an economic model with health state utility values: moving toward better practice

Cost‑Effectiveness of Lorlatinib in First-Line Treatment of Adult Patients with Anaplastic Lymphoma Kinase (ALK)‑Positive Non‑Small‑Cell Lung Cancer in Sweden

BACKGROUND

We aimed to investigate the cost effectiveness of lorlatinib, a third-generation anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI), used first-line in Sweden to treat patients with ALK-positive (ALK+) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In January 2022, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) extended its approval of lorlatinib to include adult patients with ALK+ NSCLC not previously treated with an ALK inhibitor. Extended first-line approval was based on results from CROWN, a phase III randomized trial that enlisted 296 patients randomized 1:1 to receive lorlatinib or crizotinib. Our analysis compared lorlatinib against the first-generation ALK-TKI crizotinib, and second-generation ALK TKIs alectinib and brigatinib.

METHODS

A partitioned survival model with four health states [pre-progression, non-intracranial (non-central nervous system [CNS]) progression, CNS progression, and death] was constructed. The progressed disease state (which is typically modelled in cost-effectiveness analyses of oncology treatments) was explicitly separated into non-CNS and CNS progression as brain metastases, which are common in NSCLC, and can have a large impact on patient prognosis and health-related quality of life. Treatment effectiveness estimates in the lorlatinib and crizotinib arms of the model were derived from CROWN data, while indirect relative effectiveness estimates for alectinib and brigatinib were informed using network meta-analysis (NMA). Utility data were derived from the CROWN study in the base case, and cost-effectiveness results were compared when applying UK and Swedish value sets. Costs were obtained from Swedish national data. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to test model robustness.

RESULTS

Fully incremental analysis identified crizotinib as the least costly and least effective treatment. Brigatinib was extendedly dominated by alectinib and, subsequently, alectinib was extendedly dominated by lorlatinib. Lorlatinib was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of Swedish Krona (SEK) 613,032 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained compared with crizotinib. Probabilistic results were generally consistent with deterministic results, and one-way sensitivity identified NMA HRs, alectinib and brigatinib treatment duration, and the CNS-progressed utility multiplier as key model drivers.

CONCLUSIONS

The ICER of SEK613,032 for lorlatinib versus crizotinib falls below the typical willingness-to-pay threshold per QALY gained for high-severity diseases in Sweden (approximately SEK1,000,000). Furthermore, as brigatinib and alectinib were extendedly dominated in the incremental analysis, the results of our study indicate that lorlatinib may be considered a cost-effective treatment option for first-line patients with ALK+ NSCLC in Sweden when compared with crizotinib, alectinib, and brigatinib. Longer-term follow-up data for endpoints informing treatment effectiveness for all first-line treatments would help to reduce uncertainty in the findings.

Estimating Joint Health State Utility Algorithms Under Partial Information

OBJECTIVES

We explored the performance of existing joint health state utility estimators when data are not available on utilities that isolate single-condition health states excluding any co-occurring condition.

METHODS

Using data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III, we defined 2 information sets: (1) a full-information set that includes the narrowly defined health state utilities used in most studies that test the performance of joint health state utility estimators, and (2) a limited information set that includes only the more broadly defined health state utilities more commonly available to researchers. We used an example of alcohol use disorder co-occurring with cirrhosis of the liver, depressive disorder, or nicotine use disorder to illustrate our analysis.

RESULTS

We found that the performance of joint health state utility estimators is appreciably different under limited information than under full information. Full-information estimators typically overestimate the joint state utility, whereas limited-information estimators underestimate the joint state utility, except for the minimum estimator, which is overestimated in all cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Researchers using joint health state utility estimators should understand the information set available to them and use methodological guidance appropriate for that information set. We recommend the minimum estimator under limited information based on its ease of use, consistency (and therefore a predictable direction of bias), and lower root mean squared error.

Estimation of Health State Utility Values in Fabry Disease Using Vignette Development and Valuation

Background: Health state utilities are measures of health-related quality of life that reflect the value placed on improvements in patients' health status and are necessary for estimation of quality-adjusted life-years. Health state utility data on Fabry disease (FD) are limited. In this study we used vignette (scenario) construction and valuation to develop health state utilities. Objectives: The aim of this study was to use vignette construction and valuation to estimate health state utility values suitable for inclusion in economic models of FD treatments. Methods: Health state vignettes were developed from semistructured qualitative telephone interviews with patients with FD and informed by published literature and input from an expert. Each vignette was valued in an online survey by members of the United Kingdom (UK) general population using the composite time trade-off (TTO) method, which aims to determine the time the respondent would trade to live in full health compared with each impaired health state. Results: Eight adults (50% women) with FD from the UK were interviewed. They were recruited via various approaches, including patient organizations and social media. The interviewees' responses, evidence from published literature, and input from a clinical expert informed the development of 6 health state vignettes (pain, moderate clinically evident FD [CEFD], severe CEFD, end-stage renal disease [ESRD], stroke, and cardiovascular disease [CVD]) and 3 combined health states (severe CEFD + ESRD, severe CEFD + CVD, and severe CEFD + stroke). A vignette valuation survey was administered to 1222 participants from the UK general population who were members of an external surveying organization and agreed to participate in this study; 1175 surveys were successfully completed and included in the analysis. Responses to TTO questions were converted into utility values for each health state. Pain was the highest valued health state (0.465), and severe CEFD + ESRD was the lowest (0.033). Discussion: Overall, mean utility values declined as the severity of the vignettes increased, indicating that respondents were more willing to trade life-years to avoid a severe health state. Conclusions: Health state vignettes reflect the effects of FD on all major health-related quality-of-life domains and may help to support economic modeling for treatment of FD.

Review of economic modeling evidence from NICE appraisals of rare disease treatments for spinal muscular atrophy

INTRODUCTION

The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England has appraised three treatments for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA), namely, nusinersen, onasemnogene abeparvovec, and risdiplam. As rare disease treatments (RDTs) commonly face challenges in health technology assessment (HTA) processes due to their clinical and economic uncertainties, an in-depth review of these appraisals is useful to enable a deeper understanding of economic modelling considerations for SMA.

AREAS COVERED

This review is a detailed analysis of NICE appraisals for SMA and aims to compare the economic modelling evidence of the three RDTs. This is done by examining differences and similarities and by discussing critical outstanding issues across the economic evaluations of the appraisals.

EXPERT OPINION

This article aims to contribute to the development of evidence that can be used as guidance to inform resource allocation decisions for RDTs for SMA, but also to be a resource about approaches for the generation, analysis and interpretation of economic modelling evidence for RDTs more broadly.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant atezolizumab in stage II-IIIA non-small cell lung cancer expressing ≥50% PD-L1: A United Kingdom health care perspective

OBJECTIVES

Atezolizumab monotherapy has marketing authorisation by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency as adjuvant treatment following complete resection for adults with stage II-IIIA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose tumours have PD-L1 expression on ≥ 50% of tumour cells and whose disease has not progressed following adjuvant platinum-based chemotherapy. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of atezolizumab vs best supportive care (BSC) in the licensed patient population from a UK perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patient characteristics and clinical inputs were derived from the global, randomised, open-label, phaseIII IMpower010 trial. A Markov model with the following health states was developed: disease-free survival (DFS), locoregional recurrence, first-line metastatic recurrence, second-line metastatic recurrence, and death (all partitioned based on receipt of treatment, excluding death). The base case model used a lifetime time horizon (40 years) and 3.5% discounting annually after the first year. DFS from IMpower010 was analysed with parametric survival models to extrapolate outcomes for time points beyond trial follow-up. The models were adjusted to avoid overestimating results for patients with recurrences in the longer term. Grade ≥ 3 treatment-related adverse events with incidences ≥ 2% were included. Health state utility values were derived from the literature and past NICE appraisals. Sensitivity and scenario analyses assessed uncertainty around assumptions and parameter estimates.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, atezolizumab therapy resulted in an expected gain of 1.87 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £20,392/QALY for atezolizumab vs BSC, demonstrating cost-effectiveness. Results were most influenced by discount effects and utility in the on-treatment DFS state. Scenario analyses were consistent with the base case results.

CONCLUSION

Atezolizumab after adjuvant chemotherapy is cost-effective for adults with NSCLC in the UK.

The Challenge for Orphan Drugs Remains: Three Case Studies Demonstrating the Impact of Changes to NICE Methods and Processes and Alternative Mechanisms to Value Orphan Products

BACKGROUND

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) is responsible for ensuring that patients in England and Wales can access clinically and cost-effective treatments. However, NICE's processes pose significant reimbursement challenges for treatments for rare diseases. While some orphan medicines have been appraised via the highly specialised technology route, most are appraised via the single technology appraisal programme, a route that is expected to be increasingly used given new more restrictive highly specialised technology criteria. This often results in delays to access owing to differences in applicable thresholds and the single technology appraisal approach being ill-equipped to deal with the inevitable decision uncertainty. NICE recently published their updated methods and process manual, which includes a new severity-of-disease modifier and an instruction to be more flexible when considering uncertainty in rare diseases. However, as the threshold gap between the single technology appraisal and highly specialised technology programmes remains, it is unlikely that these changes alone will address the problem.

OBJECTIVE

We explored the potential impact of quality-adjusted life-year weights in decision making.

METHODS

We explored the impact of NICE's new severity-of-disease modifier weighting and two alternative methods (the use of alternative quality-adjusted life-year weights and the fair rate of return), using three recent single technology appraisals of orphan medicines (caplacizumab, teduglutide and pirfenidone for mild idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis).

RESULTS

Our results suggest NICE's severity-of-disease modifier would not have affected the recommendations. Using alternative methods, based upon achievement of an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below standard thresholds, patients could have received access to caplacizumab approximately 5 months earlier, and the appraisals for teduglutide and pirfenidone would have resulted in a positive recommendation following appraisal consultation meeting 1 when neither of these products was available over 5 years from the initial submission.

CONCLUSION

Ultimately, moving from a restrictive end-of-life modifier to one based on disease severity is a more equitable approach likely to benefit many therapies, including orphan products. However, NICE's single technology appraisal updates are unlikely to result in faster reimbursement of orphan medicines, nor will they address concerns around market access for orphan medicines in the UK.

Recent advances in addressing the market failure of new antimicrobials: Learnings from NICE's subscription-style payment model

Background

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing threat to global health. With pathogenic bacteria inevitably becoming more resistant to existing antimicrobials, mortality and costs due to AMR will significantly increase over the next few decades if adequate action is not taken. A major challenge in addressing AMR is the lack of financial incentives for manufacturers to invest in developing new antimicrobials. This is partly because current approaches in health technology assessment (HTA) and standard modeling methods fail to capture the full value of antimicrobials.

Aim

We explore recent reimbursement and payment frameworks, particularly pull incentives, aimed to address the market failures in antimicrobials. We focus on the "subscription-style" payment model recently used in the UK and discuss the learnings for other European countries.

Methods

A pragmatic literature review was conducted to identify recent initiatives and frameworks between 2012 and 2021, across seven European markets. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) technology appraisals for cefiderocol and for ceftazidime with avibactam were reviewed to evaluate how the new UK model has been applied in practice and identify the key challenges.

Conclusion

The UK and Sweden are the first European countries to pilot the feasibility of implementing pull incentives through fully and partially delinked payment models, respectively. The NICE appraisals highlighted the complexity and large areas of uncertainty of modeling antimicrobials. If HTA and value-based pricing are part of the future in tackling the market failure in AMR, European-level efforts may be needed to overcome some of the key challenges.

How does cholesterol burden change the case for investing in familial hypercholesterolaemia? A cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study aimed to ascertain how the long-term benefits and costs of diagnosis and treatment of familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) vary by prognostic factors and 'cholesterol burden', which is the effect of long-term exposure to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

METHODS

A new cost-effectiveness model was developed from the perspective of the UK National Health Service (NHS), informed by routine data from individuals with FH. The primary outcome was net health gain (i.e., health benefits net of the losses due to costs), expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at the £15,000/QALY threshold. Prognostic factors included pre-treatment LDL-C, age, gender, and CVD history.

RESULTS

If cholesterol burden is considered, diagnosis resulted in positive net health gain (i.e., it is cost-effective) in all individuals with pre-treatment LDL-C ≥ 4 mmol/L, and in those with pre-treatment LDL-C ≥ 2 mmol/L aged ≥50 years or who have CVD history. If cholesterol burden is not considered, diagnosis resulted in lower net health gain, but still positive in children aged 10 years with pre-treatment LDL-C ≥ 6 mmol/L and adults aged 30 years with pre-treatment LDL-C ≥ 4 mmol/L.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnosis and treatment of most people with FH results in large net health gains, particularly in those with higher pre-treatment LDL-C. Economic evaluations of FH interventions should consider the sensitivity of the study conclusions to cholesterol burden, particularly where interventions target younger patients, and explicitly consider prognostic factors such as pre-treatment LDL-C, age, and CVD history.

Cost-utility and value of information analysis of tisagenlecleucel for relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the Irish healthcare setting

BACKGROUND

The evidence base of tisagenlecleucel is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of tisagenlecleucel. To conduct expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and partial EVPI (EVPPI) analyses.

STUDY DESIGN

A three-state partitioned survival model. A short-term decision tree partitioned patients in the tisagenlecleucel arm according to infusion status. Survival was extrapolated to 5 years; general population mortality with a standardised mortality ratio was then applied. EVPI and EVPPI were scaled up to population according to the incidence of the decision.

SETTING

Irish healthcare payer.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (R/R DLBCL).

INTERVENTIONS

Tisagenlecleucel versus Salvage Chemotherapy (with or without haematopoietic stem cell transplant).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Population EVPI and EVPPI.

RESULTS

At list prices, the ICER was €119,509 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (incremental costs €218,092; incremental QALYs 1.82). Probability of cost-effectiveness, at a €45,000 per QALY threshold, was 0%. Population EVPI was €0.00. Population EVPI, at the price of tisagenlecleucel that reduced the ICER to €45,000 per QALY, was €3,989,438. Here, survival analysis had the highest population EVPPI (€1,128,053).

CONCLUSION

Tisagenlecleucel is not cost-effective, versus salvage chemotherapy (with or without haematopoietic stem cell transplant), for R/R DLBCL in Ireland. At list prices, further research to decrease decision uncertainty may not be of value.

A model-based economic analysis of the CFHealthHub intervention to support adherence to inhaled medications for people with cystic fibrosis in the UK

BACKGROUND

Adherence to preventative inhaled therapies in people with cystic fibrosis (CF) is low, resulting in potentially avoidable health losses and the need for costly rescue therapies.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the CFHealthHub (CFHH) intervention to support adherence to inhaled medications.

METHODS

A state transition model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the CFHH intervention versus usual care from the perspective of the UK National Health Service and Personal Social Services over a lifetime horizon. Costs and health outcomes were discounted at a rate of 3.5 percent per annum. Costs were valued at 2021/22 prices. The model structure includes health states defined by survival status, level of lung function, and transplant history. Treatment effects were modeled by changing the probabilities of transitioning between lung function states and reducing exacerbation rates. Model parameters were informed by the CFHH trial, CF Registry data, routine cost databases, literature, and expert opinion. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to assess uncertainty.

RESULTS

The CFHH intervention is expected to generate additional health gains and cost savings compared with usual care. Assuming that it is delivered for 10 years, the CFHH intervention is expected to generate 0.17 additional quality-adjusted life years and cost savings of GBP 1,600 (EUR 1,662) per patient.

CONCLUSIONS

The CFHH intervention is expected to dominate usual care, irrespective of the duration over which the intervention is delivered. The modeled benefits and cost savings are smaller than initially expected and are sensitive to relative treatment effects on lung function.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of emergency surgery for adult emergency hospital admissions with common acute gastrointestinal conditions: the ESORT study

Background

Evidence is required on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of emergency surgery compared with non-emergency surgery strategies (including medical management, non-surgical procedures and elective surgery) for patients admitted to hospital with common acute gastrointestinal conditions.

Objectives

We aimed to evaluate the relative (1) clinical effectiveness of two strategies (i.e. emergency surgery vs. non-emergency surgery strategies) for five common acute conditions presenting as emergency admissions; (2) cost-effectiveness for five common acute conditions presenting as emergency admissions; and (3) clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the alternative strategies for specific patient subgroups.

Methods

The records of adults admitted as emergencies with acute appendicitis, cholelithiasis, diverticular disease, abdominal wall hernia or intestinal obstruction to 175 acute hospitals in England between 1 April 2010 and 31 December 2019 were extracted from Hospital Episode Statistics and linked to mortality data from the Office for National Statistics. Eligibility was determined using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, diagnosis codes, which were agreed by clinical panel consensus. Patients having emergency surgery were identified from Office of Population Censuses and Surveys procedure codes. The study addressed the potential for unmeasured confounding with an instrumental variable design. The instrumental variable was each hospital’s propensity to use emergency surgery compared with non-emergency surgery strategies. The primary outcome was the ‘number of days alive and out of hospital’ at 90 days. We reported the relative effectiveness of the alternative strategies overall, and for prespecified subgroups (i.e. age, number of comorbidities and frailty level). The cost-effectiveness analyses used resource use and mortality from the linked data to derive estimates of incremental costs, quality-adjusted life-years and incremental net monetary benefits at 1 year.

Results

Cohort sizes were as follows: 268,144 admissions with appendicitis, 240,977 admissions with cholelithiasis, 138,869 admissions with diverticular disease, 106,432 admissions with a hernia and 133,073 admissions with an intestinal obstruction. Overall, at 1 year, the average number of days alive and out of hospitals at 90 days, costs and quality-adjusted life-years were similar following either strategy, after adjusting for confounding. For each of the five conditions, overall, the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) around the incremental net monetary benefit estimates all included zero. For patients with severe frailty, emergency surgery led to a reduced number of days alive and out of hospital and was not cost-effective compared with non-emergency surgery, with incremental net monetary benefit estimates of –£18,727 (95% CI –£23,900 to –£13,600) for appendicitis, –£7700 (95% CI –£13,000 to –£2370) for cholelithiasis, –£9230 (95% CI –£24,300 to £5860) for diverticular disease, –£16,600 (95% CI –£21,100 to –£12,000) for hernias and –£19,300 (95% CI –£25,600 to –£13,000) for intestinal obstructions. For patients who were ‘fit’, emergency surgery was relatively cost-effective, with estimated incremental net monetary benefit estimates of £5180 (95% CI £684 to £9680) for diverticular disease, £2040 (95% CI £996 to £3090) for hernias, £7850 (95% CI £5020 to £10,700) for intestinal obstructions, £369 (95% CI –£728 to £1460) for appendicitis and £718 (95% CI £294 to £1140) for cholelithiasis. Public and patient involvement translation workshop participants emphasised that these findings should be made widely available to inform future decisions about surgery.

Limitations

The instrumental variable approach did not eliminate the risk of confounding, and the acute hospital perspective excluded costs to other providers.

Conclusions

Neither strategy was more cost-effective overall. For patients with severe frailty, non-emergency surgery strategies were relatively cost-effective. For patients who were fit, emergency surgery was more cost-effective.

Future work

For patients with multiple long-term conditions, further research is required to assess the benefits and costs of emergency surgery.

Study registration

This study is registered as reviewregistry784.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (IHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 11, No. 1. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab as an adjuvant treatment for patients with resected stage IIB or IIC melanoma in Switzerland

AIM

To assess the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant pembrolizumab versus observation for patients with resected stage IIB/IIC melanoma from a third-party payers' perspective in Switzerland over a lifetime horizon.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Markov state transition model with four health states (recurrence-free [RF], locoregional recurrence, distant metastases [DM], and death) was developed to determine the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus observation as an adjuvant treatment in patients with stage IIB/IIC melanoma who have undergone complete resection. The model utilized data from the KEYNOTE-716 randomized controlled trial (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03553836). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) (Swiss Franc [CHF] per life year or quality-adjusted life years [QALYs] gained) was calculated. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis and deterministic sensitivity analysis were conducted to assess the robustness of the base case results.

RESULTS

Model results demonstrated that pembrolizumab is highly cost-effective as an adjuvant treatment for resected stage IIB/IIC melanoma versus observation in Switzerland. Base case results showed an ICER of CHF 27,424/QALY (EUR 27,342/QALY; exchange rate: 1 CHF = 0.997 EUR) for pembrolizumab versus observation. Results were most sensitive to changes to transition probabilities from the RF state. Most sensitivity and scenario analyses resulted in ICERs below the willingness-to-pay threshold (WTP) of CHF 100,000. At this WTP, pembrolizumab had a 78.9% probability of being cost-effective versus observation.

LIMITATIONS

Due to a limited follow-up period in the KEYNOTE-716 trial, data from other clinical trials in the advanced melanoma setting were synthesized in a network meta-analysis and used to inform transition probabilities from DM to death in the cost-effectiveness model, to overcome the absence of these data from the trial.

CONCLUSION

The model demonstrated that pembrolizumab is highly cost-effective versus observation in patients with resected stage IIB/IIC melanoma in Switzerland. The ICER was below the WTP threshold of CHF 100,000, commonly used for cost-effectiveness models in Switzerland.

Cost-effectiveness of 5 fraction and partial breast radiotherapy for early breast cancer in the UK: model-based multi-trial analysis

PURPOSE

We estimated the cost-effectiveness of 4 radiotherapy modalities to treat early breast cancer in the UK. In a subgroup of patients eligible for all modalities, we compared whole-breast (WB) and partial breast (PB) radiotherapy delivered in either 15 (WB15F, PB15F) or 5 fractions (WB5F, PB5F). In a subgroup ineligible for PB radiotherapy, we compared WB15F to WB5F.

METHODS

We developed a Markov cohort model to simulate lifetime healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for each modality. This was informed by the clinical analysis of two non-inferiority trials (FAST Forward and IMPORT LOW) and supplemented with external literature. The primary analysis assumed that radiotherapy modality influences health only through its impact on locoregional recurrence and radiotherapy-related adverse events.

RESULTS

In the primary analysis, PB5F had the least cost and greatest expected QALYs. WB5F had the least cost and the greatest expected QALYs in those only eligible for WB radiotherapy. Applying a cost-effectiveness threshold of £15,000/QALY, there was a 62% chance that PB5F was the cost-effective alternative in the PB eligible group, and there was a 100% chance that WB5F was cost-effective in the subgroup ineligible for PB radiotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypofractionation to 5 fractions and partial breast radiotherapy modalities offer potentially important benefits to the UK health system.

SeHCAT (tauroselcholic [75selenium] acid) for the investigation of bile acid diarrhoea in adults: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Tauroselcholic [75selenium] acid (SeHCAT™) (GE Healthcare, Chicago, IL, USA) is a radiopharmaceutical that may be useful in diagnosing bile acid diarrhoea.

Objectives

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of SeHCAT for the investigation of adults with chronic unexplained diarrhoea, diarrhoea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome or functional diarrhoea (suspected primary bile acid diarrhoea), and adults with chronic diarrhoea and Crohn’s disease who have not undergone ileal resection (suspected secondary bile acid diarrhoea).

Methods

Sixteen databases were searched to November 2020. The review process included measures to minimise error and bias. Results were summarised by primary or secondary bile acid diarrhoea and study quality was considered. The cost-effectiveness analysis combined a short-term (6-month) decision-analytic model (diagnosis and initial treatment response) and a lifetime Markov model comprising three health states (diarrhoea, no diarrhoea and death), with transitions determined by probabilities of response to treatment. Analyses were conducted from an NHS and Personal Social Services perspective.

Results

Twenty-four studies were included in this review. Of these, 21 were observational studies, reporting some outcome data for patients treated with bile acid sequestrants, and in which only patients with a positive SeHCAT test were offered bile acid sequestrants. The median rate of response to bile acid sequestrants, among patients with a 7-day SeHCAT retention value of ≤ 15%, was 68% (range 38–86%) (eight studies). The estimated sensitivity of SeHCAT (≤ 15% threshold) to predict positive response to colestyramine was 100% (95% confidence interval 54.1% to 100%) and the specificity estimate was 91.2% (95% confidence interval 76.3% to 98.1%) (one study). The median proportion of treated patients who were intolerant/discontinued bile acid sequestrants was 15% (range 4–27%) (eight studies). There was insufficient information to determine whether or not intolerance varied between colestyramine, colestipol and colesevelam. For both populations, the SeHCAT 15% (i.e. a SeHCAT retention value of ≤ 15%) strategy dominated other strategies or resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of < £20,000–30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. For the suspected primary bile acid diarrhoea population, SeHCAT 15% was the strategy most likely to be cost-effective: 67% and 73% probability at threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £20,000 and £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. For the Crohn’s disease population, these probabilities were 89% and 92% at £20,000 and £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. Cost-effectiveness was mostly led by treatment response. SeHCAT 15% was the strategy with the highest response rate in the majority of scenarios explored.

Limitations and conclusions

There is a lack of evidence linking the use of SeHCAT testing to patient-relevant outcomes. The optimal SeHCAT threshold, to define bile acid diarrhoea and select patients for treatment with bile acid sequestrants, is uncertain. It is unclear whether or not patients with ‘borderline’ or ‘equivocal’ 7-day SeHCAT retention values (e.g. between 10% and 15%) and patients with values of > 15% could benefit from treatment with bile acid sequestrants. Although the results of the economic evaluation conducted for both populations indicated that the SeHCAT 15% strategy dominated the other two strategies or resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios that were lower than the common thresholds of £20,000 or £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, the paucity and poor quality of evidence mean that uncertainty is high.

Future work

The optimum study design would be a multiarm randomised controlled trial, in which participants meeting the inclusion criteria are randomised to receive colestyramine, colestipol, colesevelam or placebo, and all participants receive SeHCAT testing.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020223877.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (IHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 45. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Methods for Estimating Long-Term Outcomes for Trastuzumab Deruxtecan in HER2-Positive Unresectable or Metastatic Breast Cancer After Two or More Anti-HER2 Therapies

BACKGROUND

DESTINY-Breast01 (NCT03248492) is a phase II single-arm trial evaluating trastuzumab deruxtecan (T-DXd) in adults with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) unresectable or metastatic breast cancer (u/mBC) who have received two or more prior anti-HER2 therapies.

OBJECTIVES

Objectives were to explore approaches for estimating long-term overall survival (OS) with T-DXd from immature data (June 2020 data-cut; median follow-up 20.5 months), and compare predicted long-term outcomes with UK-recommended non-targeted therapies eribulin, capecitabine, and vinorelbine.

METHODS

Two methods were used to model T-DXd long-term OS: (1) applying a hazard ratio (HR) to the OS curve for another HER2 targeted therapy (third-line trastuzumab emtansine [T-DM1]) with longer trial follow-up; and (2) extrapolating T-DXd OS data directly. Comparator OS was based on direct extrapolation of published data (comparison with vinorelbine OS was not possible). Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated using a previously published model of utility.

RESULTS

Both extrapolation methods demonstrated longer mean/median OS with T-DXd versus eribulin, and capecitabine (44.7/32.9 months [applying an HR to the T-DM1 OS curve]; 47.7/29.9 months [using direct extrapolation]; vs 11.3/9.2, and 17.8/13.6 months, respectively), translating to 2.3, 2.3, 0.6, and 0.9 discounted QALYs.

CONCLUSION

Alternative methods produced consistent results, showing T-DXd is associated with substantial gains in OS and QALYs versus eribulin, and capecitabine. Modelled median OS results were similar to a later data-cut (median of 29.1 months, March 2021 data-cut). The modelling approach in which an HR was applied to the T-DM1 OS curve informed a submission to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.

Estimating Quality of Life Decrements in Oncology Using Time to Death

OBJECTIVES

The estimation of lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) requires the extrapolation of both length and quality of life (QoL). The extrapolation of QoL has received little attention in the literature. Here we explore the predictive value of "time to death" (TTD) for extrapolating QoL in oncology.

METHODS

We used QoL and survival data from the Patient Reported Outcomes Following Initial Treatment and Long-Term Evaluation of Survivorship registry, which is linked to The Netherlands Cancer Registry. QoL was assessed with EQ-5D and SF-6D. We tested the relationship between TTD and QoL using linear, 2-part, and beta regression models. Incremental QALYs were compared using the TTD approach and an annual age-related disutility approach using artificial survival data with varying mortality rates.

RESULTS

A total of 6 samples with &gt;100 patients each were used for the analysis. A declining pattern in QoL was observed when patients were closer to death, confirming the predictive value of TTD for QoL. The declining pattern in QoL was most pronounced when QoL was measured with SF-6D. Proximity to death had a larger impact on QoL than age. Incremental QALYs were higher using the TTD approach than annual age-related disutility, ranging from +0.139 to +0.00003 depending on mortality rates.

CONCLUSIONS

TTD is a predictor variable for QoL. Using TTD allows cost-effectiveness models that lack QoL data to extrapolate morbidity using overall survival estimates. The TTD approach generates more incremental QALYs than an annual age-related disutility, most notably for longer survival periods.

Cost-Effectiveness of Newborn Screening for Spinal Muscular Atrophy in The Netherlands

OBJECTIVES

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a rare genetic disorder that causes progressive muscle weakness and paralysis. In its most common and severe form, the majority of untreated infants die before 2 years of age. Early detection and treatment, ideally before symptom onset, maximize survival and achievement of age-appropriate motor milestones, with potentially substantial impact on health-related quality of life. Therefore, SMA is an ideal candidate for inclusion in newborn screening (NBS) programs. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of including SMA in the NBS program in The Netherlands.

METHODS

We developed a cost-utility model to estimate lifetime health effects and costs of NBS for SMA and subsequent treatment versus a treatment pathway without NBS (ie, diagnosis and treatment after presentation with overt symptoms). Model inputs were based on literature, local data, and expert opinion. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to assess model robustness and validity of results.

RESULTS

After detection of SMA by NBS in 17 patients, the number of quality-adjusted life-years gained per annual birth cohort was estimated at 320 with NBS followed by treatment compared with treatment after clinical SMA diagnosis. Total healthcare costs, including screening, diagnostics, treatment, and other healthcare resource use, were estimated to be €12 014 949 lower for patients identified by NBS.

CONCLUSIONS

NBS for early identification and treatment of SMA versus later symptomatic treatment after clinical diagnosis improves health outcomes and is less costly and, therefore, is a cost-effective use of resources. Results were robust in sensitivity and scenario analyses.

Carers' Health-Related Quality of Life in Global Health Technology Assessment: Guidance, Case Studies and Recommendations

Including health outcomes for carers as well as patients in economic evaluations can change the results and conclusions of the analysis. Whilst in many disease areas there can be clear justification for including carers' health-related quality of life (HRQL) in health technology assessments (HTAs), we believe that, in general, the perspective of carers is under-represented in HTA. We were interested in the extent, and methods by which, HTA bodies include carers' HRQL in economic evaluation. We reviewed guidance from 13 HTA bodies across the world regarding carers' HRQL. We examined five interventions, as case studies, assessed by different HTA bodies, and extracted information on whether carers' HRQL was included by the manufacturers or assessors in their dossiers of evidence, the data and methods used, and the impact on the results. We developed recommendations to guide analysts on including carers' HRQL in economic evaluations. When reviewing the methods guides: two bodies recommend including carers' HRQL in the base case, two referred to outcomes for all individuals, two preferred to exclude carers, three said it depended on other conditions, and it was unclear for four. Across the five case studies: five source studies for carers' HRQL and two different modelling approaches were used. Including carers' HRQL increased incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in 19/23 analyses (decreased it in two); there was substantial variation in the magnitude of change. We recommend: (1) the inclusion of carers is clearly justified, (2) the use of HRQL data from the population under comparison where possible, (3) the use of data from another disease area or country is clearly justified (and transferability/applicability issues are discussed), (4) the use of external data to derive comparisons for cross-sectional data is justified, (5) assumptions and implications of the modelling approach are explicit, and (6) disaggregated results for patients and carers are presented.

Home Telemonitoring and a Diagnostic Algorithm in the Management of Heart Failure in the Netherlands: Cost-effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Heart failure is a major health concern associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and reduced quality of life in patients. Home telemonitoring (HTM) facilitates frequent or continuous assessment of disease signs and symptoms, and it has shown to improve compliance by involving patients in their own care and prevent emergency admissions by facilitating early detection of clinically significant changes. Diagnostic algorithms (DAs) are predictive mathematical relationships that make use of a wide range of collected data for calculating the likelihood of a particular event and use this output for prioritizing patients with regard to their treatment.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of HTM and a DA in the management of heart failure in the Netherlands. Three interventions were analyzed: usual care, HTM, and HTM plus a DA.

METHODS

A previously published discrete event simulation model was used. The base-case analysis was performed according to the Dutch guidelines for economic evaluation. Sensitivity, scenario, and value of information analyses were performed. Particular attention was given to the cost-effectiveness of the DA at various levels of diagnostic accuracy of event prediction and to different patient subgroups.

RESULTS

HTM plus the DA extendedly dominates HTM alone, and it has a deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared with usual care of €27,712 (currency conversion rate in purchasing power parity at the time of study: €1=US $1.29; further conversions are not applicable in cost-effectiveness terms) per quality-adjusted life year. The model showed robustness in the sensitivity and scenario analyses. HTM plus the DA had a 96.0% probability of being cost-effective at the appropriate €80,000 per quality-adjusted life year threshold. An optimal point for the threshold value for the alarm of the DA in terms of its cost-effectiveness was estimated. New York Heart Association class IV patients were the subgroup with the worst cost-effectiveness results versus usual care, while HTM plus the DA was found to be the most cost-effective for patients aged <65 years and for patients in New York Heart Association class I.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the increased costs of adopting HTM plus the DA in the management of heart failure may seemingly be an additional strain on scarce health care resources, the results of this study demonstrate that, by increasing patient life expectancy by 1.28 years and reducing their hospitalization rate by 23% when compared with usual care, the use of this technology may be seen as an investment, as HTM plus the DA in its current form extendedly dominates HTM alone and is cost-effective compared with usual care at normally accepted thresholds in the Netherlands.

Early computed tomography coronary angiography in adults presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome: the RAPID-CTCA RCT

BACKGROUND

Acute coronary syndrome is a common medical emergency. The optimal strategy to investigate patients who are at intermediate risk of acute coronary syndrome has not been fully determined.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the role of early computed tomography coronary angiography in the investigation and treatment of adults presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome.

DESIGN

A prospective, multicentre, open, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with blinded end-point adjudication.

SETTING

Thirty-seven hospitals in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults (aged ≥ 18 years) presenting to the emergency department, acute medicine services or cardiology department with suspected or provisionally diagnosed acute coronary syndrome and at least one of the following: (1) a prior history of coronary artery disease, (2) a cardiac troponin level > 99th centile and (3) an abnormal 12-lead electrocardiogram.

INTERVENTIONS

Early computed tomography coronary angiography in addition to standard care was compared with standard care alone. Participants were followed up for 1 year.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

One-year all-cause death or subsequent type 1 (spontaneous) or type 4b (stent thrombosis) myocardial infarction, measured as the time to such event adjudicated by two cardiologists blinded to the computerised tomography coronary angiography ( CTCA ) arm. Cost-effectiveness was estimated as the lifetime incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained.

RESULTS

Between 23 March 2015 and 27 June 2019, 1748 participants [mean age 62 years (standard deviation 13 years), 64% male, mean Global Registry Of Acute Coronary Events score 115 (standard deviation 35)] were randomised to receive early computed tomography coronary angiography (n = 877) or standard care alone (n = 871). The primary end point occurred in 51 (5.8%) participants randomised to receive computed tomography coronary angiography and 53 (6.1%) participants randomised to receive standard care (adjusted hazard ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.62 to 1.35; p = 0.65). Computed tomography coronary angiography was associated with a reduced use of invasive coronary angiography (adjusted hazard ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.72 to 0.92; p = 0.001) but no change in coronary revascularisation (adjusted hazard ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.21; p = 0.76), acute coronary syndrome therapies (adjusted odds ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.32; p = 0.63) or preventative therapies on discharge (adjusted odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.32; p = 0.52). Early computed tomography coronary angiography was associated with longer hospitalisations (median increase 0.21 days, 95% confidence interval 0.05 to 0.40 days) and higher mean total health-care costs over 1 year (£561 more per patient) than standard care.

LIMITATIONS

The principal limitation of the trial was the slower than anticipated recruitment, leading to a revised sample size, and the requirement to compromise and accept a larger relative effect size estimate for the trial intervention.

FUTURE WORK

The potential role of computed tomography coronary angiography in selected patients with a low probability of obstructive coronary artery disease (intermediate or mildly elevated level of troponin) or who have limited access to invasive cardiac catheterisation facilities needs further prospective evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with suspected or provisionally diagnosed acute coronary syndrome, computed tomography coronary angiography did not alter overall coronary therapeutic interventions or 1-year clinical outcomes, but it did increase the length of hospital stay and health-care costs. These findings do not support the routine use of early computed tomography coronary angiography in intermediate-risk patients with acute chest pain.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial is registered as ISRCTN19102565 and Clinical Trials NCT02284191.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 37. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Cost-Effectiveness, Burden of Disease and Budget Impact of Inclisiran: Dynamic Cohort Modelling of a Real-World Population with Cardiovascular Disease

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness, burden of disease and budget impact of inclisiran added to standard-of-care lipid-lowering therapy in the real-world secondary cardiovascular prevention population in Switzerland.

METHODS

An open-cohort Markov model captured event risks by sex, age and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol based on epidemiological and real-world data. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction with add-on inclisiran was based on trial results and translated to meta-analysis-based relative risks of cardiovascular events. Unit costs for 2018 were based on publicly available sources, adopting a Swiss healthcare system perspective. Price assumptions of Swiss francs (CHF) 500 and CHF 3,000 per dose of inclisiran were evaluated, combined with uptake assumptions for burden of disease and budget impact. The assessment of cost-effectiveness used a discount rate of 3% per year. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and extensive scenario analyses.

RESULTS

Patients treated with inclisiran gained a 0.291 qualityadjusted life-year at an incremental cost per QALY gained of CHF 21,107/228,040 (life-long time horizon, discount rate 3%) under the lower/higher price. Inclisiran prevented 1025 cardiovascular deaths, 3425 acute coronary syndrome episodes, and 1961 strokes in 48,823 patients ever treated during 10 years; the 5-year budget impact was CHF 49.3/573.4 million under the lower/higher price. Estimates were sensitive to calibration targets and treatment eligibility; burden of disease/budget impact results also to uptake. Limitations included uncertainties about model assumptions and the size and characteristics of the population modelled.

CONCLUSIONS

Inclisiran may be cost-effective at a willingness to pay of CHF 30,000 if priced at CHF 500; a threshold upwards of CHF 250,000 will be required if priced at CHF 3000. Inclisiran could enable important reductions in cardiovascular burden particularly under broader eligibility with a budget impact range from moderate to high depending on price.

Tisagenlecleucel for relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia in the Irish healthcare setting: cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of tisagenlecleucel (a CAR T-cell therapy), versus blinatumomab, for the treatment of pediatric and young adult patients with relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia (R/R ALL) in the Irish healthcare setting. The value of conducting further research, to investigate the value of uncertainty associated with the decision problem, is assessed by means of expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and partial EVPI (EVPPI) analyses.

METHODS

A three-state partitioned survival model was developed. A short-term decision tree partitioned patients in the tisagenlecleucel arm according to infusion status. Survival was extrapolated to 60 months; general population mortality with a standardized mortality ratio was then applied. Estimated EVPI and EVPPI were scaled up to population according to the incidence of the decision.

RESULTS

At list prices, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was EUR 73,086 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (incremental costs EUR 156,928; incremental QALYs 2.15). The probability of cost-effectiveness, at the willingness-to-pay threshold of EUR 45,000 per QALY, was 16 percent. At this threshold, population EVPI was EUR 314,455; population EVPPI was below EUR 100,000 for each parameter category.

CONCLUSIONS

Tisagenlecleucel is not cost effective, versus blinatumomab, for the treatment of pediatric and young adult patients with R/R ALL in Ireland (at list prices). Further research to decrease decision (parameter) uncertainty, at the defined willingness-to-pay threshold, may not be of value. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty underpinning the analysis, which may not be captured by EVPI analysis.

Integrating a Polygenic Risk Score for Coronary Artery Disease as a Risk-Enhancing Factor in the Pooled Cohort Equation: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Study

Background

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in the United States, yet a significant proportion of adults at high risk remain undetected by standard screening practices. Polygenic risk score for coronary artery disease (CAD‐PRS) improves precision in determining the 10‐year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease but health benefits and health care costs associated with CAD‐PRS are unknown. We examined the cost‐effectiveness of including CAD‐PRS as a risk‐enhancing factor in the pooled cohort equation (PCE)—the standard of care for determining the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease—versus PCE alone.

Methods and Results

We applied a Markov model on a cohort of 40‐year‐old individuals with borderline or intermediate 10‐year risk (5% to <20%) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease to identify those in the top quintile of the CAD‐PRS distribution who are at high risk and eligible for statin prevention therapy. Health outcomes examined included coronary artery disease (CAD; ie, myocardial infarction) and ischemic stroke. The model projected medical costs (2019 US$) of screening for CAD, statin prevention therapy, treatment, and monitoring patients living with CAD or ischemic stroke and quality‐adjusted life‐years for PCE+CAD‐PRS versus PCE alone. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were performed to examine uncertainty in parameter inputs. PCE+CAD‐PRS was dominant compared with PCE alone in the 5‐ and 10‐year time horizons. We found that, respectively, PCE+CAD‐PRS had 0.003 and 0.011 higher mean quality‐adjusted life‐years and $40 and $181 lower mean costs per person screened, with 29 and 50 fewer events of CAD and ischemic stroke in a cohort of 10 000 individuals compared with PCE alone. The risk of developing CAD, the effectiveness of statin prevention therapy, and the cost of treating CAD had the largest impact on the cost per quality‐adjusted life‐year gained. However, this cost remained below the $50 000 willingness‐to‐pay threshold except when the annual risk of developing CAD was <0.006 in the 5‐year time horizon. Results from Monte Carlo simulation indicated that PCE+CAD‐PRS would be cost‐effective. with the probability of 94% and 99% at $50 000 willingness‐to‐pay threshold in the 5‐ and 10‐year time horizon, respectively.

Conclusions

Implementing CAD‐PRS as a risk‐enhancing factor in the PCE to determine the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease reduced the mean cost per individual, improved quality‐adjusted life‐years, and averted future events of CAD and ischemic stroke when compared with PCE alone.

Improving outcomes for women aged 70 years or above with early breast cancer: research programme including a cluster RCT

Background

In breast cancer management, age-related practice variation is widespread, with older women having lower rates of surgery and chemotherapy than younger women, based on the premise of reduced treatment tolerance and benefit. This may contribute to inferior outcomes. There are currently no age- and fitness-stratified guidelines on which to base treatment recommendations.

Aim

We aimed to optimise treatment choice and outcomes for older women (aged ≥ 70 years) with operable breast cancer.

Objectives

Our objectives were to (1) determine the age, comorbidity, frailty, disease stage and biology thresholds for endocrine therapy alone versus surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy, or adjuvant chemotherapy versus no chemotherapy, for older women with breast cancer; (2) optimise survival outcomes for older women by improving the quality of treatment decision-making; (3) develop and evaluate a decision support intervention to enhance shared decision-making; and (4) determine the degree and causes of treatment variation between UK breast units.

Design

A prospective cohort study was used to determine age and fitness thresholds for treatment allocation. Mixed-methods research was used to determine the information needs of older women to develop a decision support intervention. A cluster-randomised trial was used to evaluate the impact of this decision support intervention on treatment choices and outcomes. Health economic analysis was used to evaluate the cost–benefit ratio of different treatment strategies according to age and fitness criteria. A mixed-methods study was used to determine the degree and causes of variation in treatment allocation.

Main outcome measures

The main outcome measures were enhanced age- and fitness-specific decision support leading to improved quality-of-life outcomes in older women (aged ≥ 70 years) with early breast cancer.

Results

(1) Cohort study: the study recruited 3416 UK women aged ≥ 70 years (median age 77 years). Follow-up was 52 months. (a) The surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy versus endocrine therapy alone comparison: 2854 out of 3416 (88%) women had oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer, 2354 of whom received surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy and 500 received endocrine therapy alone. Patients treated with endocrine therapy alone were older and frailer than patients treated with surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy. Unmatched overall survival and breast-cancer-specific survival were higher in the surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy group (overall survival: hazard ratio 0.27, 95% confidence interval 0.23 to 0.33; p < 0.001; breast-cancer-specific survival: hazard ratio 0.41, 95% confidence interval 0.29 to 0.58; p < 0.001) than in the endocrine therapy alone group. In matched analysis, surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy was still associated with better overall survival (hazard ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.98; p = 0.04) than endocrine therapy alone, but not with better breast-cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.40 to 1.37; p = 0.34) or progression-free-survival (hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 2.26; p = 0.78). (b) The adjuvant chemotherapy versus no chemotherapy comparison: 2811 out of 3416 (82%) women received surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy, of whom 1520 (54%) had high-recurrence-risk breast cancer [grade 3, node positive, oestrogen receptor negative or human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 positive, or a high Oncotype DX® (Genomic Health, Inc., Redwood City, CA, USA) score of > 25]. In this high-risk population, there were no differences according to adjuvant chemotherapy use in overall survival or breast-cancer-specific survival after propensity matching. Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with a lower risk of metastatic recurrence than no chemotherapy in the unmatched (adjusted hazard ratio 0.36, 95% confidence interval 0.19 to 0.68; p = 0.002) and propensity-matched patients (adjusted hazard ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval 0.20 to 0.92; p = 0.03). Adjuvant chemotherapy improved the overall survival and breast-cancer-specific survival of patients with oestrogen-receptor-negative disease. (2) Mixed-methods research to develop a decision support intervention: an iterative process was used to develop two decision support interventions (each comprising a brief decision aid, a booklet and an online tool) specifically for older women facing treatment choices (endocrine therapy alone or surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy, and adjuvant chemotherapy or no chemotherapy) using several evidence sources (expert opinion, literature and patient interviews). The online tool was based on models developed using registry data from 23,842 patients and validated on an external data set of 14,526 patients. Mortality rates at 2 and 5 years differed by < 1% between predicted and observed values. (3) Cluster-randomised clinical trial of decision support tools: 46 UK breast units were randomised (intervention, n = 21; usual care, n = 25), recruiting 1339 women (intervention, n = 670; usual care, n = 669). There was no significant difference in global quality of life at 6 months post baseline (difference –0.20, 95% confidence interval –2.7 to 2.3; p = 0.90). In women offered a choice of endocrine therapy alone or surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy, knowledge about treatments was greater in the intervention arm than the usual care arm (94% vs. 74%; p = 0.003). Treatment choice was altered, with higher rates of endocrine therapy alone than of surgery in the intervention arm. Similarly, chemotherapy rates were lower in the intervention arm (endocrine therapy alone rate: intervention sites 21% vs. usual-care sites 15%, difference 5.5%, 95% confidence interval 1.1% to 10.0%; p = 0.02; adjuvant chemotherapy rate: intervention sites 10% vs. usual-care site 15%, difference 4.5%, 95% confidence interval 0.0% to 8.0%; p = 0.013). Survival was similar in both arms. (4) Health economic analysis: a probabilistic economic model was developed using registry and cohort study data. For most health and fitness strata, surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy had lower costs and returned more quality-adjusted life-years than endocrine therapy alone. However, for some women aged > 90 years, surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy was no longer cost-effective and generated fewer quality-adjusted life-years than endocrine therapy alone. The incremental benefit of surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy reduced with age and comorbidities. (5) Variation in practice: analysis of rates of surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy or endocrine therapy alone between the 56 breast units in the cohort study demonstrated significant variation in rates of endocrine therapy alone that persisted after adjustment for age, fitness and stage. Clinician preference was an important determinant of treatment choice.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that, for older women with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer, there is a cohort of women with a life expectancy of < 4 years for whom surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy may offer little benefit and simply have a negative impact on quality of life. The Age Gap decision tool may help make this shared decision. Similarly, although adjuvant chemotherapy offers little benefit and has a negative impact on quality of life for the majority of older women with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer, for women with oestrogen-receptor-negative breast cancer, adjuvant chemotherapy is beneficial. The negative impacts of adjuvant chemotherapy on quality of life, although significant, are transient. This implies that, for the majority of fitter women aged ≥ 70 years, standard care should be offered.

Limitations

As with any observational study, despite detailed propensity score matching, residual bias cannot be excluded. Follow-up was at median 52 months for the cohort analysis. Longer-term follow-up will be required to validate these findings owing to the slow time course of oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer.

Future work

The online algorithm is now available (URL: https://agegap.shef.ac.uk/; accessed May 2022). There are plans to validate the tool and incorprate quality-of-life and 10-year survival outcomes.

Trial registration

This trial is registered as ISRCTN46099296.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 10, No. 6. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Local Instrumental Variable Methods to Address Confounding and Heterogeneity when Using Electronic Health Records: An Application to Emergency Surgery

Background

Electronic health records (EHRs) offer opportunities for comparative effectiveness research to inform decision making. However, to provide useful evidence, these studies must address confounding and treatment effect heterogeneity according to unmeasured prognostic factors. Local instrumental variable (LIV) methods can help studies address these challenges, but have yet to be applied to EHR data. This article critically examines a LIV approach to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of emergency surgery (ES) for common acute conditions from EHRs.

Methods

This article uses hospital episodes statistics (HES) data for emergency hospital admissions with acute appendicitis, diverticular disease, and abdominal wall hernia to 175 acute hospitals in England from 2010 to 2019. For each emergency admission, the instrumental variable for ES receipt was each hospital’s ES rate in the year preceding the emergency admission. The LIV approach provided individual-level estimates of the incremental quality-adjusted life-years, costs and net monetary benefit of ES, which were aggregated to the overall population and subpopulations of interest, and contrasted with those from traditional IV and risk-adjustment approaches.

Results

The study included 268,144 (appendicitis), 138,869 (diverticular disease), and 106,432 (hernia) patients. The instrument was found to be strong and to minimize covariate imbalance. For diverticular disease, the results differed by method; although the traditional approaches reported that, overall, ES was not cost-effective, the LIV approach reported that ES was cost-effective but with wide statistical uncertainty. For all 3 conditions, the LIV approach found heterogeneity in the cost-effectiveness estimates across population subgroups: in particular, ES was not cost-effective for patients with severe levels of frailty.

Conclusions

EHRs can be combined with LIV methods to provide evidence on the cost-effectiveness of routinely provided interventions, while fully recognizing heterogeneity.

Highlights

Guidelines for Utility Measurement for Economic Analysis: The Brazilian Policy

INTRODUCTION

Health-related quality of life is expressed in utilities, also referred to as utility estimates or parameters. Considerations about the source and type of utility values are especially important in a modeling context, where the lack of transparency, including the lack of a hierarchy for utility data sources, is a major issue to any estimation and can potentially compromise model reliability.

OBJECTIVES

This document aims to present the first version of the Brazilian guidelines for utility measurement to support economic analysis.

METHODS

A virtual workshop and a modified Delphi panel with 10 health technology specialists followed a rapid evaluation of 110 technical documents and indexed publications. The recommendations are based on the proposition that has received the most votes, although contentious issues are addressed in the suggestion or discussion. The rationale for the final decision is included in the text.

RESULTS

The consensus includes 50 recommendations with the following topics: Transparency and Reliability, Model Design, Conditions Under Which Generic Questionnaires Are Not Sensible or Valid, Utility Evidence Hierarchy, Utility Data Searching, Modeling Utility Values, Extrapolating Quality Adjusted Life-Years for Models With Lifetime Horizons, Caregiver Utility, Utility Data Synthesis, Quality/Certainty of the Evidence, and Utility Estimates in End-of-Life Conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

The goal of this project is to create unified national standards for using utility metrics in economic analysis in Brazil. This set of recommendations is not obligatory, but it is meant to serve as a guide and lead to the development of better and more transparent economic models in the country.

A cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis to inform future research of tranexamic acid for older adults experiencing mild traumatic brain injury

BACKGROUND

Tranexamic acid reduces head injury deaths in patients with CT scan evidence of intracranial bleeding after mild traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, the cost-effectiveness of tranexamic acid for people with mild TBI in the pre-hospital setting, prior to CT scanning, is uncertain. A large randomised controlled trial (CRASH-4) is planned to address this issue, but the economic justification for it has not been established. The aim of the analysis was to estimate the likelihood of tranexamic acid being cost-effective given current evidence, the treatment effects required for cost-effectiveness, and the expected value of performing further research.

METHODS

An early economic decision model compared usual care for mild TBI with and without tranexamic acid, for adults aged 70 and above. The evaluation was performed from a UK healthcare perspective over a lifetime time horizon, with costs reported in 2020 pounds (GBP) and outcomes reported as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). All analyses used a £20,000 per QALY cost-effectiveness threshold.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, tranexamic acid was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £4885 per QALY gained, but the likelihood of it being cost-effective was highly dependent on the all-cause mortality treatment effect. The value of perfect information was £22.4 million, and the value of perfect information for parameters that could be collected in a trial was £21.9 million. The all-cause mortality risk ratio for tranexamic acid and the functional outcomes following TBI had the most impact on cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a high degree of uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness of tranexamic acid for older adults experiencing mild TBI, meaning there is a high value of performing future research in the UK. The value in a global context is likely to be far higher.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Remdesivir for the Treatment of Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 in England and Wales

OBJECTIVES

COVID-19 is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. This study aims to synthesize evidence to assess the cost-effectiveness of remdesivir (RDV) for the treatment of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in England and Wales.

METHODS

A probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted informed by 2 large trials and uses a partitioned survival approach to assess short- and long-term clinical consequences and costs associated with COVID-19 in a hypothetical cohort of hospitalized patients requiring supplemental oxygen at the start of treatment. Given that it is uncertain whether RDV reduces death, 2 analyses are presented, assuming RDV either reduces death or does not. Published sources were used for long-term clinical, quality of life, and cost parameters.

RESULTS

Under the assumption that RDV reduces death, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for RDV is estimated at £11 881 per quality-adjusted life-year gained compared with standard of care (SoC) (probabilistic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio £12 400). The probability for RDV to be cost-effective is 74% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. RDV was no longer cost-effective when the hazard ratio for overall survival compared with SoC was >0·915.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from this study suggest that using RDV for the treatment of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 is likely to represent a cost-effective use of National Health Service resources at current willingness-to-pay threshold in England and Wales, only if it prevents death. Results needs to be interpreted caution as vaccination was introduced and the SoC and evidence available have also evolved considerably since the analysis is conducted.

Cost-Effectiveness of Brexucabtagene Autoleucel versus Best Supportive Care for the Treatment of Relapsed/Refractory Mantle Cell Lymphoma following Treatment with a Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor in Canada

For patients with Mantle Cell Lymphoma (MCL), there is no recognized standard of care for relapsed/refractory (R/R) disease after treatment with a Bruton's tyrosine kinase inhibitor (BTKi). Brexucabtagene autoleucel (brexu-cel) represents a promising new treatment modality in MCL. We explored whether brexu-cel was cost-effective for the treatment of R/R MCL. We developed a partitioned survival mixture cure approach to model the costs and outcomes over a lifetime horizon. The clinical data were derived from the ZUMA-2 clinical trial. The costs were estimated from the publicly available Canadian databases, published oncology literature, and pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review economic guidance reports. The health state utilities were sourced from the ibrutinib submission to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence for R/R MCL and supplemented with values from the published oncology literature. In the base case over a lifetime horizon, brexu-cel generated an incremental 9.56 life-years and an additional 7.03 quality-adjusted life-years compared to BSC, while associated with CAD 621,933 in additional costs. The resultant incremental cost-utility ratio was CAD 88,503 per QALY gained compared with BSC. Based on this analysis, we found brexu-cel to be a cost-effective use of healthcare resources relative to BSC for treatment of adult patients with R/R MCL previously treated with a BTKi in Canada, though additional research is needed to confirm these results using longer follow-up data.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of extended extracorporeal membrane oxygenation duration in newborns with congenital diaphragmatic hernia in the United States

BACKGROUND

The duration of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has been historically confined in many centers to two weeks. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of additional weeks on ECMO beyond two weeks for newborns with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) who may require longer stays to maximize survival potential.

METHODS

We modeled lifetime outcomes using a decision tree from the US societal perspective. Survival at discharge, probability of long-term sequelae, direct medical costs, indirect costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) for long-term disability were considered. Considering the nature of severity of CDH, we used $200,000 per QALY as the willingness-to-pay threshold in the base case.

RESULTS

The lifetime costs per CDH infant generated from staying on ECMO for ≤2 weeks, 2-3 weeks, and >3 weeks are $473,334, $654,771, $1,007,476, respectively (2018 USD), and the total QALYs gained from each treatment arm are 1.83, 3.6, and 5.05. In the base case, the net monetary benefits are -$108,034 for ECMO ≤2 weeks, $64,258 for 2-3 weeks, and $2955 for >3 weeks. In probabilistic simulations, a duration of ≤2 weeks is dominated by a duration of 2-3 weeks in 65.3% of cases and dominated by > 3 weeks in 60.2% of cases. A duration of 2-3 weeks is more cost-effective than >3 weeks in 68.6% of simulations.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that 2-3 weeks of ECMO may be the most cost-effective for CDH infants that are unable to wean off at 2 weeks from the US societal perspective. Regardless of ECMO duration, ECMO use generates positive incremental NMB at WTP of $200,000 if the survival probability is greater than 0.3. Future research must be conducted to evaluate the long-term outcomes and sequelae of CDH patients post-discharge to better inform the clinical decision-making in neonatal intensive care unit.

Systematic review of the evidence sources applied to cost-effectiveness analyses for older women with primary breast cancer

OBJECTIVE

To appraise the sources of evidence and methods to estimate input parameter values in decision-analytic model-based cost-effectiveness analyses of treatments for primary breast cancer (PBC) in older patients (≥ 70 years old).

METHODS

Two electronic databases (Ovid Medline, Ovid EMBASE) were searched (inception until 5 September-2021) to identify model-based full economic evaluations of treatments for older women with PBC as part of their base-case target population or age-subgroup analysis. Data sources and methods to estimate four types of input parameters including health-related quality of life (HRQoL); natural history; treatment effect; resource use were extracted and appraised. Quality assessment was completed by reference to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards.

RESULTS

Seven model-based economic evaluations were included (older patients as part of their base-case (n = 3) or subgroup (n = 4) analysis). Data from younger patients (< 70 years) were used frequently to estimate input parameters. Different methods were adopted to adjust these estimates for an older population (HRQoL: disutility multipliers, additive utility decrements; Natural history: calibration of absolute values, one-way sensitivity analyses; Treatment effect: observational data analysis, age-specific behavioural parameters, plausible scenario analyses; Resource use: matched control observational data analysis, age-dependent follow-up costs).

CONCLUSION

Improving estimated input parameters for older PBC patients will improve estimates of cost-effectiveness, decision uncertainty, and the value of further research. The methods reported in this review can inform future cost-effectiveness analyses to overcome data challenges for this population. A better understanding of the value of treatments for these patients will improve population health outcomes, clinical decision-making, and resource allocation decisions.

Heparin versus citrate anticoagulation for continuous renal replacement therapy in intensive care: the RRAM observational study

BACKGROUND

In the UK, 10% of admissions to intensive care units receive continuous renal replacement therapy with regional citrate anticoagulation replacing systemic heparin anticoagulation over the last decade. Regional citrate anticoagulation is now used in > 50% of intensive care units, despite little evidence of safety or effectiveness.

AIM

The aim of the Renal Replacement Anticoagulant Management study was to evaluate the clinical and health economic impacts of intensive care units moving from systemic heparin anticoagulation to regional citrate anticoagulation for continuous renal replacement therapy.

DESIGN

This was an observational comparative effectiveness study.

SETTING

The setting was NHS adult general intensive care units in England and Wales.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were adults receiving continuous renal replacement therapy in an intensive care unit participating in the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme national clinical audit between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2017.

INTERVENTIONS

Exposure - continuous renal replacement therapy in an intensive care unit after completion of transition to regional citrate anticoagulation. Comparator - continuous renal replacement therapy in an intensive care unit before starting transition to regional citrate anticoagulation or had not transitioned.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary effectiveness - all-cause mortality at 90 days. Primary economic - incremental net monetary benefit at 1 year. Secondary outcomes - mortality at hospital discharge, 30 days and 1 year; days of renal, cardiovascular and advanced respiratory support in intensive care unit; length of stay in intensive care unit and hospital; bleeding and thromboembolic events; prevalence of end-stage renal disease at 1 year; and estimated lifetime incremental net monetary benefit.

DATA SOURCES

Individual patient data from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme were linked with the UK Renal Registry, Hospital Episode Statistics (for England), Patient Episodes Data for Wales and Civil Registrations (Deaths) data sets, and combined with identified periods of systemic heparin anticoagulation and regional citrate anticoagulation (survey of intensive care units). Staff time and consumables were obtained from micro-costing. Continuous renal replacement therapy system failures were estimated from the Post-Intensive Care Risk-adjusted Alerting and Monitoring data set. EuroQol-3 Dimensions, three-level version, health-related quality of life was obtained from the Intensive Care Outcomes Network study.

RESULTS

Out of the 188 (94.9%) units that responded to the survey, 182 (96.8%) use continuous renal replacement therapy. After linkage, data were available from 69,001 patients across 181 intensive care units (60,416 during periods of systemic heparin anticoagulation use and 8585 during regional citrate anticoagulation use). The change to regional citrate anticoagulation was not associated with a step change in 90-day mortality (odds ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.08). Secondary outcomes showed step increases in days of renal support (difference in means 0.53 days, 95% confidence interval 0.28 to 0.79 days), advanced cardiovascular support (difference in means 0.23 days, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.38 days) and advanced respiratory support (difference in means, 0.53 days, 95% CI 0.03 to 1.03 days) with a trend toward fewer bleeding episodes (odds ratio 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 1.06) with transition to regional citrate anticoagulation. The micro-costing study indicated that regional citrate anticoagulation was more expensive and was associated with an estimated incremental net monetary loss (step change) of -£2376 (95% confidence interval -£3841 to -£911). The estimated likelihood of cost-effectiveness at 1 year was less than 0.1%.

LIMITATIONS

Lack of patient-level treatment data means that the results represent average effects of changing to regional citrate anticoagulation in intensive care units. Administrative data are subject to variation in data quality over time, which may contribute to observed trends.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of regional citrate anticoagulation has not improved outcomes for patients and is likely to have substantially increased costs. This study demonstrates the feasibility of evaluating effects of changes in practice using routinely collected data.

FUTURE WORK

(1) Prioritise other changes in clinical practice for evaluation and (2) methodological research to understand potential implications of trends in data quality.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial is registered as ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03545750.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 13. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Therapeutic Drug Monitoring-Guided Adjuvant Tamoxifen Dosing in Patients with Early Breast Cancer: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis from the Prospective TOTAM Trial

Background and Objectives

Endoxifen is the active metabolite of tamoxifen, and a minimal plasma concentration of 16 nM has been suggested as a threshold above which it is effective in reducing the risk of breast cancer recurrence. The aim of the current analysis was to investigate the cost-effectiveness of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM)-guided tamoxifen dosing.

Methods

A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a Dutch healthcare perspective, using a partitioned survival model and a lifetime horizon. The reduction in subtherapeutic treatment following TDM is modelled as improved rates of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in comparison to standard tamoxifen treatment. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and a series of scenario analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the results.

Results

Base-case results estimated a total increase in life years and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for TDM of 0.40 and 0.53, respectively. Total costs for TDM and standard tamoxifen treatment are €32,893 and €39,524, respectively. The TDM intervention results in both more QALYs and less healthcare costs, indicating a dominating effect for TDM. The PSA results indicate that the probability of TDM being cost-effective is 92% when using a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000.

Conclusions

TDM-guided dose optimization of tamoxifen is estimated to save costs and increase QALYs for early breast cancer patients.

An economic evaluation of triage tools for patients with suspected severe injuries in England

BACKGROUND

Many health care systems triage injured patients to major trauma centres (MTCs) or local hospitals by using triage tools and paramedic judgement. Triage tools are typically assessed by whether patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 16 go to an MTC and whether patients with an ISS < 16 are sent to their local hospital. There is a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity of triage tools, with the optimal balance being unknown. We conducted an economic evaluation of major trauma triage tools to identify which tool would be considered cost-effective by UK decision makers.

METHODS

A patient-level, probabilistic, mathematical model of a UK major trauma system was developed. Patients with an ISS ≥ 16 who were only treated at local hospitals had worse outcomes compared to being treated in an MTC. Nine empirically derived triage tools, from a previous study, were examined so we assessed triage tools with realistic trade-offs between triage tool sensitivity and specificity. Lifetime costs, lifetime quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each tool and compared to maximum acceptable ICERs (MAICERs) in England.

RESULTS

Four tools had ICERs within the normal range of MAICERs used by English decision makers (£20,000 to £30,000 per QALY gained). A low sensitivity (28.4%) and high specificity (88.6%) would be cost-effective at the lower end of this range while higher sensitivity (87.5%) and lower specificity (62.8%) was cost-effective towards the upper end of this range. These results were sensitive to the cost of MTC admissions and whether MTCs had a benefit for patients with an ISS between 9 and 15.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effective triage tool depends on the English decision maker's MAICER for this health problem. In the usual range of MAICERs, cost-effective prehospital trauma triage involves clinically suboptimal sensitivity, with a proportion of seriously injured patients (at least 10%) being initially transported to local hospitals. High sensitivity trauma triage requires development of more accurate decision rules; research to establish if patients with an ISS between 9 and 15 benefit from MTCs; or, inefficient use of health care resources to manage patients with less serious injuries at MTCs.

Cost-Effectiveness of Inotuzumab Ozogamicin Compared to Standard of Care Chemotherapy for Treating Relapsed or Refractory Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia Patients in Norway and Sweden

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of inotuzumab ozogamicin (InO) versus standard of care chemotherapy (SoC) for adults with relapsed or refractory B cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (R/R ALL) in Sweden and Norway, and compare this to evaluations made by the health technology assessment (HTA) authorities Tandvårds- och läkemedelsförmånsverket (TLV) and the Norwegian Medicines Agency (NoMA).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A partitioned survival model was developed to determine incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for InO versus SoC. Parametric survival models were fit to overall survival and progression-free survival Kaplan-Meier data from the INO-VATE ALL phase III trial. Two base cases were run using (1) Swedish and (2) Norwegian inputs (costs and discount rates). Core clinical inputs and utilities did not differ between countries. Analyses were then conducted to reflect the preferred assumptions of TLV and NoMA. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The base case deterministic ICERs for InO versus SoC were €16,219/quality-adjusted life years (QALY) in Sweden (probabilistic €19,415) and €44,405/QALY in Norway (probabilistic €47,305). The ICERs using our model but applying the preferred assumptions of TLV or NoMA were €74,061/QALY (probabilistic €77,484) and €59,391/QALY (probabilistic €63,632), respectively. Differences between our base cases and the ICERs with TLV and NoMA settings were mainly explained by the exclusion of productivity costs and use of pooled post-haematopoietic stem-cell transplant (post-HSCT) survival in Sweden and use of higher HSCT costs in Norway. All ICERs remained below the approximated willingness-to-pay thresholds. The probability of InO being cost-effective ranged from 77 to 99% versus SoC.

CONCLUSIONS

InO can likely be considered cost-effective versus SoC under our and the HTA-preferred settings.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of KTE-X19 CAR T therapy versus real-world standard of care in patients with relapsed/refractory mantle cell lymphoma post BTKi in England

AIMS

The objective of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of KTE-X19 versus standard of care (SoC) in the treatment of patients with relapsed/refractory (R/R) mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) post-Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor (BTKi) treatment from a UK healthcare perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A three-state partitioned survival model (pre-progression, post-progression and death) with a cycle length of one month was used to extrapolate progression-free and overall survival over a lifetime horizon. Population inputs along with KTE-X19 (brexucabtagene autoleucel) efficacy and safety data were derived from the single-arm trial ZUMA-2 (NCT02601313). The composition of SoC was informed by a literature-based meta-analysis, SoC efficacy data were obtained from the SCHOLAR-2 real-world study. Survival was modelled using standard parametric curves for SoC and a mixture-cure methodology for KTE-X19. It was assumed that patients whose disease had not progressed after five years experienced long-term remission. Costs, resource use and utility, and adverse event disutility inputs were obtained from published literature and publicly available data sources. An annual discount rate of 3.5% was applied to costs and health outcomes. Modelled outcomes for KTE-X19 and SoC included expected life years (LY), quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and total costs. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Estimated median survival was 5.96 years for KTE-X19 and 1.38 for SoC. Discounted LYs, QALYs and lifetime costs were 8.27, 5.99 and £385,765 for KTE-X19 versus 1.98, 1.48 and £79,742 for SoC, respectively. The KTE-X19 versus SoC cost per QALY was £67,713 and the cost per LY was £48,645. Influential scenario analyses use alternative KTE-X19 survival curves and discount rates, and shorter time horizons.

CONCLUSION

Considering the survival and quality of life benefits compared to SoC, KTE-X19 for R/R MCL appears as a cost-effective treatment in the real-world UK setting.

Cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab for the first-line treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic MSI-H/dMMR colorectal cancer in the United States

AIMS

Approximately, 4% of Stage IV colorectal cancers (CRC) are microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H)/deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) tumors. Patients with metastatic MSI-H/dMMR CRC receiving conventional therapies experience lower response rates and tend to have worse overall survival compared with patients with microsatellite stable (MSS)/proficient mismatch repair (pMMR) CRC. Pembrolizumab received FDA approval in 2020 for first-line treatment of Stage IV MSI-H/dMMR CRC based on significantly longer progression-free survival versus standard of care (SoC, 5-fluorouracil-based therapy with or without bevacizumab or cetuximab). This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab vs. SoC as per KEYNOTE-177 and other first-line treatments for MSI-H/dMMR CRC from a US healthcare system perspective.

METHODS

A three-health-state partitioned-survival model was built using progression-free and overall survival data from KEYNOTE-177 and a network meta-analysis. Utilities were derived from KEYNOTE-177 EQ-5D-3L data. Drug acquisition, administration, AE, surgery, monitoring, subsequent treatment, and terminal care costs were included. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed, including utilizing a state-transition model structure and adopting a societal perspective.

RESULTS

Over a lifetime time horizon, pembrolizumab and SoC were associated with total QALYs of 4.85 and 3.23, and total costs of $381,735 and $370,465, respectively, resulting in an ICER of $6,984 per QALY. QALY gains were mainly driven by extended survival with pembrolizumab. Pembrolizumab incurred higher drug acquisition costs relative to SoC but was cost-saving in terms of drug administration, AE, monitoring, subsequent treatment, and terminal care. Pembrolizumab dominated FOLFOX + panitumumab, FOLFOXIRI, and FOLFOXIRI + bevacizumab, and presented ICERs of $35,220 and $276 against XELOX and XELOX + bevacizumab. Results were robust to sensitivity and scenario analyses.

CONCLUSION

Pembrolizumab is highly cost-effective for the first-line treatment of unresectable or metastatic MSI-H/dMMR CRC in the US at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY.Key messagesPembrolizumab is a highly cost-effective option for the first-line treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic MSI-H/dMMR colorectal cancer in the United States at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000. Compared with the current standard of care for these patients, pembrolizumab:Increases survival due to delaying and preventing progression;Increases QALYs due to longer survival, improvement in HRQoL in the progression-free health state, and fewer Grade 3+ adverse events;Reduces costs associated with administering treatment, managing adverse events, monitoring post-progression disease, providing subsequent treatment, and providing terminal care; andReduces indirect health care costs when taking a societal perspective due to productivity gains from delaying and preventing progression and death, less frequent treatment administration and less frequent Grade 3+ adverse events.

Biomarkers for assessing acute kidney injury for people who are being considered for admission to critical care: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury is a serious complication that occurs in the context of an acute critical illness or during a postoperative period. Earlier detection of acute kidney injury may facilitate strategies to preserve renal function, prevent further disease progression and reduce mortality. Acute kidney injury diagnosis relies on a rise in serum creatinine levels and/or fall in urine output; however, creatinine is an imperfect marker of kidney function. There is interest in the performance of novel biomarkers used in conjunction with existing clinical assessment, such as NephroCheck^® (Astute Medical, Inc., San Diego, CA, USA), ARCHITECT^® urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) (Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Park, IL, USA), and urine and plasma BioPorto NGAL (BioPorto Diagnostics A/S, Hellerup, Denmark) immunoassays. If reliable, these biomarkers may enable earlier identification of acute kidney injury and enhance management of those with a modifiable disease course.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to evaluate the role of biomarkers for assessing acute kidney injury in critically ill patients who are considered for admission to critical care.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic databases, conference abstracts and ongoing studies were searched up to June 2019, with no date restrictions. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Health Technology Assessment Database, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, World Health Organization Global Index Medicus, EU Clinical Trials Register, International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to evaluate the performance of novel biomarkers for the detection of acute kidney injury and prediction of other relevant clinical outcomes. Random-effects models were adopted to combine evidence. A decision tree was developed to evaluate costs and quality-adjusted life-years accrued as a result of changes in short-term outcomes (up to 90 days), and a Markov model was used to extrapolate results over a lifetime time horizon.

RESULTS

A total of 56 studies (17,967 participants), mainly prospective cohort studies, were selected for inclusion. No studies addressing the clinical impact of the use of biomarkers on patient outcomes, compared with standard care, were identified. The main sources of bias across studies were a lack of information on blinding and the optimal threshold for NGAL. For prediction studies, the reporting of statistical details was limited. Although the meta-analyses results showed the potential ability of these biomarkers to detect and predict acute kidney injury, there were limited data to establish any causal link with longer-term health outcomes and there were considerable clinical differences across studies. Cost-effectiveness results were highly uncertain, largely speculative and should be interpreted with caution in the light of the limited evidence base. To illustrate the current uncertainty, 15 scenario analyses were undertaken. Incremental quality-adjusted life-years were very low across all scenarios, ranging from positive to negative increments. Incremental costs were also small, in general, with some scenarios generating cost savings with tests dominant over standard care (cost savings with quality-adjusted life-year gains). However, other scenarios generated results whereby the candidate tests were more costly with fewer quality-adjusted life-years, and were thus dominated by standard care. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a plausible base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the tests, compared with standard care.

LIMITATIONS

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness results were hampered by the considerable heterogeneity across identified studies. Economic model predictions should also be interpreted cautiously because of the unknown impact of NGAL-guided treatment, and uncertain causal links between changes in acute kidney injury status and changes in health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence is insufficient to make a full appraisal of the role and economic value of these biomarkers and to determine whether or not they provide cost-effective improvements in the clinical outcomes of acute kidney injury patients.

FUTURE WORK

Future studies should evaluate the targeted use of biomarkers among specific patient populations and the clinical impact of their routine use on patient outcomes and management.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019147039.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 7. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis of NephroCheck and NGAL tests compared to standard care for the diagnosis of acute kidney injury

BACKGROUND

Early and accurate acute kidney injury (AKI) detection may improve patient outcomes and reduce health service costs. This study evaluates the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of NephroCheck and NGAL (urine and plasma) biomarker tests used alongside standard care, compared with standard care to detect AKI in hospitalised UK adults.

METHODS

A 90-day decision tree and lifetime Markov cohort model predicted costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from a UK NHS perspective. Test accuracy was informed by a meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies. Clinical trial and observational data informed the link between AKI and health outcomes, health state probabilities, costs and utilities. Value of information (VOI) analysis informed future research priorities.

RESULTS

Under base case assumptions, the biomarker tests were not cost-effective with ICERs of £105,965 (NephroCheck), £539,041 (NGAL urine BioPorto), £633,846 (NGAL plasma BioPorto) and £725,061 (NGAL urine ARCHITECT) per QALY gained compared to standard care. Results were uncertain, due to limited trial data, with probabilities of cost-effectiveness at £20,000 per QALY ranging from 0 to 99% and 0 to 56% for NephroCheck and NGAL tests respectively. The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was £66 M, which demonstrated that additional research to resolve decision uncertainty is worthwhile.

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence is inadequate to support the cost-effectiveness of general use of biomarker tests. Future research evaluating the clinical and cost-effectiveness of test guided implementation of protective care bundles is necessary. Improving the evidence base around the impact of tests on AKI staging, and of AKI staging on clinical outcomes would have the greatest impact on reducing decision uncertainty.

Cost Effectiveness of Gemtuzumab Ozogamicin in the First-Line Treatment of Acute Myeloid Leukaemia in the UK

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The phase III ALFA-0701 study demonstrated the efficacy and safety of gemtuzumab ozogamicin (GO) versus standard of care (SOC) chemotherapy (daunorubicin and cytarabine) for the treatment of adult patients with de novo CD33+ acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). This study analysed the cost-effectiveness of GO from the perspective of the UK health care payer.

METHODS

A cohort state-transition model was developed to estimate direct health care costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over a lifetime time horizon from AML diagnosis to death using monthly cycles. Data on complete remission, overall survival, relapse-free survival (RFS), haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation, and adverse events for GO plus SOC versus SOC were obtained from the ALFA-0701 study. Overall survival and RFS were extrapolated beyond the trial horizon using mixture cure models. Unit costs were obtained from standard national sources. Utilities were identified in a systematic literature review. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3.5%. Analyses were performed for the base-case population, excluding patients with an unfavourable cytogenetic profile, and the overall population.

RESULTS

For the base-case and overall populations respectively, incremental per-patient costs (£13,456 and £14,773) and QALYs (0.99 and 0.68) for GO plus SOC versus SOC resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of £13,561 and £21,819 per QALY gained. The mean probabilistic ICERs were £14,217 and £23,245, respectively. Univariate sensitivity analyses supported the robustness of the results.

CONCLUSIONS

The ICERs for both populations met NICE's £20,000-£30,000 willingness-to-pay threshold for medicines and supported the current approval for GO.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of apixaban versus vitamin K antagonists for antithrombotic therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation after acute coronary syndrome or percutaneous coronary intervention in Spain

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

AUGUSTUS trial demonstrated that, for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) having acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), an antithrombotic regimen with apixaban and P2Y12 resulted in less bleeding, fewer hospitalizations, and similar ischemic events than regimens including a vitamin K antagonist (VKA), aspirin, or both. This study objective was to evaluate long-term health and economic outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of apixaban over VKA, as a treatment option for patients with AF having ACS/PCI.

METHODS

A lifetime Markov cohort model was developed comparing apixaban versus VKA across multiple treatment strategies (triple [with P2Y12 + aspirin] or dual [with P2Y12] therapy followed by monotherapy [apixaban or VKA]; triple followed by dual and then monotherapy; dual followed by monotherapy). The model adopted the Spanish healthcare perspective, with a 3-month cycle length and costs and health outcomes discounted at 3%.

RESULTS

Treatment with apixaban resulted in total cost savings of €883 and higher life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs) per patient than VKA (net difference, LYs: 0.13; QALYs: 0.11). Bleeding and ischemic events (per 100 patients) were lower with apixaban than VKA (net difference, -13.9 and -1.8, respectively). Incremental net monetary benefit for apixaban was €3,041, using a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, apixaban was dominant in the majority of simulations (92.6%), providing additional QALYs at lower costs than VKA.

CONCLUSIONS

Apixaban was a dominant treatment strategy than VKA from both the Spanish payer's and societal perspectives, regardless of treatment strategy considered.

The cost-effectiveness of gene therapy for severe hemophilia B: a microsimulation study from the United States perspective

Adeno-associated virus (AAV)-mediated gene therapy is a novel treatment promising to reduce morbidity associated with hemophilia. Although multiple clinical trials continue to evaluate efficacy and safety, limited cost-effectiveness data have been published. This study compared the potential cost-effectiveness of AAV-mediated factor IX (FIX)-Padua gene therapy for patients with severe hemophilia B in the United States vs on-demand FIX replacement and primary FIX prophylaxis, using either standard or extended half-life FIX products. A microsimulation Markov model was constructed, and transition probabilities between health states and utilities were informed by using published data. Costs were aggregated by using a microcosting approach. A time horizon from 18 years old until death, from the perspective of a third-party payer in the United States, was conducted. Gene therapy was more cost-effective than both alternatives considering a $150 000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. The price for gene therapy was assumed to be $2 000 000 in the base case scenario; however, one of the 1-way sensitivity analyses was conducted by using observed manufacturing, administration, and 5-year follow-up costs of $87 198 for AAV-mediated gene therapy vector as derived from the manufacturing facility and clinical practice at St Jude Children's Research Hospital. One-way sensitivity analyses revealed 10 of 102 scenarios in which gene therapy was not cost-effective compared with alternative treatments. Notably, gene therapy remained cost-effective in a hypothetical scenario in which we estimated that the discounted factor concentrate price was 20% of the wholesale acquisition cost in the United States. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis estimated gene therapy to be cost-effective at 92% of simulations considering a $150 000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. In conclusion, based on detailed simulation inputs and assumptions, gene therapy was more cost-effective than on-demand treatment and prophylaxis for patients with severe hemophilia B.

Smoking cessation medicines and e-cigarettes: a systematic review, network meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking is one of the leading causes of early death. Varenicline [Champix (UK), Pfizer Europe MA EEIG, Brussels, Belgium; or Chantix (USA), Pfizer Inc., Mission, KS, USA], bupropion (Zyban; GlaxoSmithKline, Brentford, UK) and nicotine replacement therapy are licensed aids for quitting smoking in the UK. Although not licensed, e-cigarettes may also be used in English smoking cessation services. Concerns have been raised about the safety of these medicines and e-cigarettes.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation medicines and e-cigarettes.

DESIGN

Systematic reviews, network meta-analyses and cost-effectiveness analysis informed by the network meta-analysis results.

SETTING

Primary care practices, hospitals, clinics, universities, workplaces, nursing or residential homes.

PARTICIPANTS

Smokers aged ≥ 18 years of all ethnicities using UK-licensed smoking cessation therapies and/or e-cigarettes.

INTERVENTIONS

Varenicline, bupropion and nicotine replacement therapy as monotherapies and in combination treatments at standard, low or high dose, combination nicotine replacement therapy and e-cigarette monotherapies.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Effectiveness - continuous or sustained abstinence. Safety - serious adverse events, major adverse cardiovascular events and major adverse neuropsychiatric events.

DATA SOURCES

Ten databases, reference lists of relevant research articles and previous reviews. Searches were performed from inception until 16 March 2017 and updated on 19 February 2019.

REVIEW METHODS

Three reviewers screened the search results. Data were extracted and risk of bias was assessed by one reviewer and checked by the other reviewers. Network meta-analyses were conducted for effectiveness and safety outcomes. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using an amended version of the Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes model.

RESULTS

Most monotherapies and combination treatments were more effective than placebo at achieving sustained abstinence. Varenicline standard plus nicotine replacement therapy standard (odds ratio 5.75, 95% credible interval 2.27 to 14.90) was ranked first for sustained abstinence, followed by e-cigarette low (odds ratio 3.22, 95% credible interval 0.97 to 12.60), although these estimates have high uncertainty. We found effect modification for counselling and dependence, with a higher proportion of smokers who received counselling achieving sustained abstinence than those who did not receive counselling, and higher odds of sustained abstinence among participants with higher average dependence scores. We found that bupropion standard increased odds of serious adverse events compared with placebo (odds ratio 1.27, 95% credible interval 1.04 to 1.58). There were no differences between interventions in terms of major adverse cardiovascular events. There was evidence of increased odds of major adverse neuropsychiatric events for smokers randomised to varenicline standard compared with those randomised to bupropion standard (odds ratio 1.43, 95% credible interval 1.02 to 2.09). There was a high level of uncertainty about the most cost-effective intervention, although all were cost-effective compared with nicotine replacement therapy low at the £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year threshold. E-cigarette low appeared to be most cost-effective in the base case, followed by varenicline standard plus nicotine replacement therapy standard. When the impact of major adverse neuropsychiatric events was excluded, varenicline standard plus nicotine replacement therapy standard was most cost-effective, followed by varenicline low plus nicotine replacement therapy standard. When limited to licensed interventions in the UK, nicotine replacement therapy standard was most cost-effective, followed by varenicline standard.

LIMITATIONS

Comparisons between active interventions were informed almost exclusively by indirect evidence. Findings were imprecise because of the small numbers of adverse events identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined therapies of medicines are among the most clinically effective, safe and cost-effective treatment options for smokers. Although the combined therapy of nicotine replacement therapy and varenicline at standard doses was the most effective treatment, this is currently unlicensed for use in the UK.

FUTURE WORK

Researchers should examine the use of these treatments alongside counselling and continue investigating the long-term effectiveness and safety of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation compared with active interventions such as nicotine replacement therapy.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016041302.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 59. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Non-invasive imaging software to assess the functional significance of coronary stenoses: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

QAngio^® XA 3D/QFR^® (three-dimensional/quantitative flow ratio) imaging software (Medis Medical Imaging Systems BV, Leiden, the Netherlands) and CAAS^® vFFR^® (vessel fractional flow reserve) imaging software (Pie Medical Imaging BV, Maastricht, the Netherlands) are non-invasive technologies to assess the functional significance of coronary stenoses, which can be alternatives to invasive fractional flow reserve assessment.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of all evidence on QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR, including diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness, implementation and economic analyses. We searched MEDLINE and other databases to January 2020 for studies where either technology was used and compared with fractional flow reserve in patients with intermediate stenosis. The risk of bias was assessed with quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies. Meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy were performed. Clinical and implementation outcomes were synthesised narratively. A simulation study investigated the clinical impact of using QAngio XA 3D/QFR. We developed a de novo decision-analytic model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR relative to invasive fractional flow reserve or invasive coronary angiography alone. Scenario analyses were undertaken to explore the robustness of the results to variation in the sources of data used to populate the model and alternative assumptions.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine studies (5440 patients) of QAngio XA 3D/QFR and three studies (500 patients) of CAAS vFFR were included. QAngio XA 3D/QFR had good diagnostic accuracy to predict functionally significant fractional flow reserve (≤ 0.80 cut-off point); contrast-flow quantitative flow ratio had a sensitivity of 85% (95% confidence interval 78% to 90%) and a specificity of 91% (95% confidence interval 85% to 95%). A total of 95% of quantitative flow ratio measurements were within 0.14 of the fractional flow reserve. Data on the diagnostic accuracy of CAAS vFFR were limited and a full meta-analysis was not feasible. There were very few data on clinical and implementation outcomes. The simulation found that quantitative flow ratio slightly increased the revascularisation rate when compared with fractional flow reserve, from 40.2% to 42.0%. Quantitative flow ratio and fractional flow reserve resulted in similar numbers of subsequent coronary events. The base-case cost-effectiveness results showed that the test strategy with the highest net benefit was invasive coronary angiography with confirmatory fractional flow reserve. The next best strategies were QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR (without fractional flow reserve). However, the difference in net benefit between this best strategy and the next best was small, ranging from 0.007 to 0.012 quality-adjusted life-years (or equivalently £140-240) per patient diagnosed at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year.

LIMITATIONS

Diagnostic accuracy evidence on CAAS vFFR, and evidence on the clinical impact of QAngio XA 3D/QFR, were limited.

CONCLUSIONS

Quantitative flow ratio as measured by QAngio XA 3D/QFR has good agreement and diagnostic accuracy compared with fractional flow reserve and is preferable to standard invasive coronary angiography alone. It appears to have very similar cost-effectiveness to fractional flow reserve and, therefore, pending further evidence on general clinical benefits and specific subgroups, could be a reasonable alternative. The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of CAAS vFFR are uncertain. Randomised controlled trial evidence evaluating the effect of quantitative flow ratio on clinical and patient-centred outcomes is needed.

FUTURE WORK

Studies are required to assess the diagnostic accuracy and clinical feasibility of CAAS vFFR. Large ongoing randomised trials will hopefully inform the clinical value of QAngio XA 3D/QFR.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019154575.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 56. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

An intervention to support adherence to inhaled medication in adults with cystic fibrosis: the ACtiF research programme including RCT

Background

People with cystic fibrosis frequently have low levels of adherence to inhaled medications.

Objectives

The objectives were to develop and evaluate an intervention for adults with cystic fibrosis to improve adherence to their inhaled medication.

Design

We used agile software methods to develop an online platform. We used mixed methods to develop a behaviour change intervention for delivery by an interventionist. These were integrated to become the CFHealthHub intervention. We undertook a feasibility study consisting of a pilot randomised controlled trial and process evaluation in two cystic fibrosis centres. We evaluated the intervention using an open-label, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with usual care as the control. Participants were randomised in a 1 : 1 ratio to intervention or usual care. Usual care consisted of clinic visits every 3 months. We undertook a process evaluation alongside the randomised controlled trial, including a fidelity study, a qualitative interview study and a mediation analysis. We undertook a health economic analysis using both a within-trial and model-based analysis.

Setting

The randomised controlled trial took place in 19 UK cystic fibrosis centres.

Participants

Participants were people aged ≥ 16 years with cystic fibrosis, on the cystic fibrosis registry, not post lung transplant or on the active transplant list, who were able to consent and not using dry-powder inhalers.

Intervention

People with cystic fibrosis used a nebuliser with electronic monitoring capabilities. This transferred data automatically to a digital platform. People with cystic fibrosis and clinicians could monitor adherence using these data, including through a mobile application (app). CFHealthHub displayed graphs of adherence data as well as educational and problem-solving information. A trained interventionist helped people with cystic fibrosis to address their adherence.

Main outcome measures

Randomised controlled trial – adjusted incidence rate ratio of pulmonary exacerbations meeting the modified Fuchs criteria over a 12-month follow-up period (primary outcome); change in percentage adherence; and per cent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (key secondary outcomes). Process evaluation – percentage fidelity to intervention delivery, and participant and interventionist perceptions of the intervention. Economic modelling – incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained.

Results

Randomised controlled trial – 608 participants were randomised to the intervention (n = 305) or usual care (n = 303). To our knowledge, this was the largest randomised controlled trial in cystic fibrosis undertaken in the UK. The adjusted rate of exacerbations per year (primary outcome) was 1.63 in the intervention and 1.77 in the usual-care arm (incidence rate ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.12; p = 0.638) after adjustment for covariates. The adjusted difference in mean weekly normative adherence was 9.5% (95% confidence interval 8.6% to 10.4%) across 1 year, favouring the intervention. Adjusted mean difference in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (per cent) predicted at 12 months was 1.4% (95% confidence interval –0.2% to 3.0%). No adverse events were related to the intervention. Process evaluation – fidelity of intervention delivery was high, the intervention was acceptable to people with cystic fibrosis, participants engaged with the intervention [287/305 (94%) attended the first intervention visit], expected mechanisms of action were identified and contextual factors varied between randomised controlled trial sites. Qualitative interviews with 22 people with cystic fibrosis and 26 interventionists identified that people with cystic fibrosis welcomed the objective adherence data as proof of actions to self and others, and valued the relationship that they built with the interventionists. Economic modelling – the within-trial analysis suggests that the intervention generated 0.01 additional quality-adjusted life-years at an additional cost of £865.91 per patient, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £71,136 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. This should be interpreted with caution owing to the short time horizon. The health economic model suggests that the intervention is expected to generate 0.17 additional quality-adjusted life-years and cost savings of £1790 over a lifetime (70-year) horizon; hence, the intervention is expected to dominate usual care. Assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, the probability that the intervention generates more net benefit than usual care is 0.89. The model results are dependent on assumptions regarding the duration over which costs and effects of the intervention apply, the impact of the intervention on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (per cent) predicted and the relationship between increased adherence and drug-prescribing levels.

Limitations

Number of exacerbations is a sensitive and valid measure of clinical change used in many trials. However, data collection of this outcome in this context was challenging and could have been subject to bias. It was not possible to measure baseline adherence accurately. It was not possible to quantify the impact of the intervention on the number of packs of medicines prescribed.

Conclusions

We developed a feasible and acceptable intervention that was delivered to fidelity in the randomised controlled trial. We observed no statistically significant difference in the primary outcome of exacerbation rates over 12 months. We observed an increase in normative adherence levels in a disease where adherence levels are low. The magnitude of the increase in adherence may not have been large enough to affect exacerbations.

Future work

Given the non-significant difference in the primary outcome, further research is required to explore why an increase in objective normative adherence did not reduce exacerbations and to develop interventions that reduce exacerbations.

Trial registration

Work package 3.1: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13076797. Work packages 3.2 and 3.3: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN55504164.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 9, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Data on Utility in Cost-Utility Analyses of Genetic Screen-and-Treat Strategies for Breast and Ovarian Cancer

Simple Summary

The prevention of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer involves genetic counselling and several highly preference-sensitive alternatives (i.e., risk-reducing surgeries). In health economics models, data on health preferences applied (i.e., utility values) are heterogeneous. In this methodological analysis, we compared the application of utility values among cost–utility models of targeted genetic testing for the prevention of breast and ovarian cancer. While varying utilities on risk-reducing surgeries and cancer states did not impact the cost–utility ratio, utility losses/gains due to a positive/negative test may strongly affect the cost–utility ratio and should be considered mandatory in future models. Because women’s health preferences may have changed as a result of improved oncologic care and genetic counselling, studies for ascertaining women’s health preferences should be updated.

Abstract

Genetic screen-and-treat strategies for the risk-reduction of breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) are often evaluated by cost–utility analyses (CUAs). This analysis compares data on health preferences (i.e., utility values) in CUAs of targeted genetic testing for BC and OC. Based on utilities applied in fourteen CUAs, data on utility including related assumptions were extracted for the health states: (i) genetic test, (ii) risk-reducing surgeries, (iii) BC/OC and (iv) post cancer. In addition, information about the sources of utility and the impact on the cost-effectiveness was extracted. Utility for CUAs relied on heterogeneous data and assumptions for all health states. The utility values ranged from 0.68 to 0.97 for risk-reducing surgeries, 0.6 to 0.85 for BC and 0.5 to 0.82 for OC. In two out of nine studies, considering the impact of the test result strongly affected the cost–effectiveness ratio. While in general utilities seem not to affect the cost–utility ratio, in future modeling studies the impact of a positive/negative test on utility should be considered mandatory. Women’s health preferences, which may have changed as a result of improved oncologic care and genetic counselling, should be re-evaluated.

Cost-effectiveness of MRI targeted biopsy strategies for diagnosing prostate cancer in Singapore

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of six diagnostic strategies involving magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) targeted biopsy for diagnosing prostate cancer in initial and repeat biopsy settings from the Singapore healthcare system perspective.

METHODS

A combined decision tree and Markov model was developed. The starting model population was men with mean age of 65 years referred for a first prostate biopsy due to clinical suspicion of prostate cancer. The six diagnostic strategies were selected for their relevance to local clinical practice. They comprised MRI targeted biopsy following a positive pre-biopsy multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) [Prostate Imaging - Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) score ≥ 3], systematic biopsy, or saturation biopsy employed in different testing combinations and sequences. Deterministic base case analyses with sensitivity analyses were performed using costs from the healthcare system perspective and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained as the outcome measure to yield incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

RESULTS

Deterministic base case analyses showed that Strategy 1 (MRI targeted biopsy alone), Strategy 2 (MRI targeted biopsy ➔ systematic biopsy), and Strategy 4 (MRI targeted biopsy ➔ systematic biopsy ➔ saturation biopsy) were cost-effective options at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of US$20,000, with ICERs ranging from US$18,975 to US$19,458. Strategies involving MRI targeted biopsy in the repeat biopsy setting were dominated. Sensitivity analyses found the ICERs were affected mostly by changes to the annual discounting rate and prevalence of prostate cancer in men referred for first biopsy, ranging between US$15,755 to US$23,022. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed Strategy 1 to be the least costly, and Strategies 2 and 4 being the preferred strategies when WTP thresholds were US$20,000 and US$30,000, respectively.

LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

This study found MRI targeted biopsy to be cost-effective in diagnosing prostate cancer in the biopsy-naïve setting in Singapore.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care creatinine testing to assess kidney function prior to contrast-enhanced computed tomography imaging

BACKGROUND

Patients undergoing contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) imaging in a non-emergency outpatient setting often lack a recent estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate measurement. This may lead to inefficiencies in the CECT pathway. The use of point-of-care (POC) creatinine tests to evaluate kidney function in these patients may provide a safe and cost-effective alternative to current practice, as these can provide results within the same CECT appointment.

METHODS

A decision tree model was developed to characterise the diagnostic pathway and patient management (e.g., intravenous hydration) and link these to adverse renal events associated with intravenous contrast media. Twelve diagnostic strategies including three POC devices (i-STAT, ABL800 Flex and StatSensor), risk factor screening and laboratory testing were compared with current practice. The diagnostic accuracy of POC devices was derived from a systematic review and meta-analysis; relevant literature sources and databases informed other parameters. The cost-effective strategy from a health care perspective was identified based on highest net health benefit (NHB) which were expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at £20,000/QALY.

RESULTS

The cost-effective strategy, with a NHB of 9.98 QALYs and a probability of being cost-effective of 79.3%, was identified in our analysis to be a testing sequence involving screening all individuals for risk factors, POC testing (with i-STAT) on those screening positive, and performing a confirmatory laboratory test for individuals with a positive POC result. The incremental NHB of this strategy compared to current practice, confirmatory laboratory test, is 0.004 QALYs. Results were generally robust to scenario analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

A testing sequence combining a risk factor questionnaire, POC test and confirmatory laboratory testing appears to be cost-effective compared to current practice. The cost-effectiveness of POC testing appears to be driven by reduced delays within the CECT pathway. The contribution of intravenous contrast media to acute kidney injury, and the benefits and harms of intravenous hydration remain uncertain.

Obinutuzumab Plus Chemotherapy Compared with Rituximab Plus Chemotherapy in Previously Untreated Italian Patients with Advanced Follicular Lymphoma at Intermediate-High Risk: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Objective

To assess the cost-effectiveness of obinutuzumab (O-chemo) in comparison to rituximab (R-chemo) in patients with untreated advanced follicular lymphoma (FL) at intermediate or high risk from an Italian National Health Service (NHS) perspective.

Methods

A previously developed four-state Markov model was adapted to estimate lifetime clinical outcomes and costs of Italian patients with advanced FL and an FL international predictive index score ≥2 in treatment with O-chemo and R-chemo. Life expectancy was derived from the GALLIUM and PRIMA clinical trials. Progression-free survival (PFS), early progressive disease (PD), and treatment duration were extrapolated by fitting parametric distributions to empirical data in GALLIUM and late PD to data in PRIMA. Expected survival was weighed by published utilities. Costs updated to 2020 Euros and health gains occurring after the first year were discounted at an annual 3% rate. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was carried out.

Results

O-chemo was associated with an incremental survival increase (0.97 life-years [LYs]), even when weighted for quality (0.88 quality-adjusted LYs [QALYs]), and incremental costs (around €15,000), driven by longer treatment during PFS state relative to R-chemo. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and incremental cost-utility ratio are both widely accepted by the Italian NHS (around €15,500/LY and €17,000/QALY gained, respectively). PSA simulations confirmed the robustness of results given sensible variations in assumptions.

Conclusion

O-chemo has superior clinical efficacy compared to rituximab, and should be considered a cost-effective option in first-line treatment of patients with advanced FL at intermediate or high risk in Italy. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are below the threshold considered affordable by developed countries.