Skyline‐plot methods for estimating demographic history from nucleotide sequences

Contribution of historical herbarium small RNAs to the reconstruction of a cassava mosaic geminivirus evolutionary history

Emerging viral diseases of plants are recognised as a growing threat to global food security. However, little is known about the evolutionary processes and ecological factors underlying the emergence and success of viruses that have caused past epidemics. With technological advances in the field of ancient genomics, it is now possible to sequence historical genomes to provide a better understanding of viral plant disease emergence and pathogen evolutionary history. In this context, herbarium specimens represent a valuable source of dated and preserved material. We report here the first historical genome of a crop pathogen DNA virus, a 90-year-old African cassava mosaic virus (ACMV), reconstructed from small RNA sequences bearing hallmarks of small interfering RNAs. Relative to tip-calibrated dating inferences using only modern data, those performed with the historical genome yielded both molecular evolution rate estimates that were significantly lower, and lineage divergence times that were significantly older. Crucially, divergence times estimated without the historical genome appeared in discordance with both historical disease reports and the existence of the historical genome itself. In conclusion, our study reports an updated time-frame for the history and evolution of ACMV and illustrates how the study of crop viral diseases could benefit from natural history collections.

Discordance in maternal and paternal genetic markers in lesser long-nosed bat Leptonycteris yerbabuenae, a migratory bat: recent expansion to the North and male phylopatry

Leptonycteris yerbabuenae, the lesser long-nosed bat is an abundant migratory nectar-feeding bat found in most of Mexico, and in some areas of northern Central America and small sections of southwestern USA. We analyzed the distribution of the maternal and paternal lineages of this species with phylogeographic methods based on two mitochondrial markers, Cyt-b and D-loop, and a marker located in the Y chromosome, DBY. We obtained tissue samples from 220 individuals from 23 localities. Levels of genetic diversity (haplotype diversity, Hd ) were high (Cyt-b = 0.757; D-loop = 0.8082; DBY = 0.9137). No clear patterns of population genetic structure were found for mitochondrial markers, while male genetic differentiation suggested the presence of two lineages: one from Mexican Pacific coast states and another from central-southern Mexico; in accordance to strong male philopatry and higher female migration. We used genealogical reconstructions based on Bayesian tools to calculate divergence times, and to test coalescent models to explain changes in L. yerbabuenae historical demography. Our results show that recent demographic changes were consistent with global climatic changes (∼130,000 kyr ago for Cyt-b and ∼160,000 kyr for D-loop) and divergence times dated from molecular genealogies exhibited older divergence times, Cyt-b (4.03 mya), D-loop (10.26 mya) and DBY (12.23 mya). Accordingly, the female lineage underwent demographic expansion associated to Pleistocene climate change, whereas the male lineage remained constant.

pgHMA: Application of the heteroduplex mobility assay analysis in phylogenetics and population genetics

The heteroduplex mobility assay (HMA) has proven to be a robust tool for the detection of genetic variation. Here, we describe a simple and rapid application of the HMA by microfluidic capillary electrophoresis, for phylogenetics and population genetic analyses (pgHMA). We show how commonly applied techniques in phylogenetics and population genetics have equivalents with pgHMA: phylogenetic reconstruction with bootstrapping, skyline plots, and mismatch distribution analysis. We assess the performance and accuracy of pgHMA by comparing the results obtained against those obtained using standard methods of analyses applied to sequencing data. The resulting comparisons demonstrate that: (a) there is a significant linear relationship (R²  = .992) between heteroduplex mobility and genetic distance, (b) phylogenetic trees obtained by HMA and nucleotide sequences present nearly identical topologies, (c) clades with high pgHMA parametric bootstrap support also have high bootstrap support on nucleotide phylogenies, (d) skyline plots estimated from the UPGMA trees of HMA and Bayesian trees of nucleotide data reveal similar trends, especially for the median trend estimate of effective population size, and (e) optimized mismatch distributions of HMA are closely fitted to the mismatch distributions of nucleotide sequences. In summary, pgHMA is an easily-applied method for approximating phylogenetic diversity and population trends.

First assessment of genetic diversity, population structure and historical population dynamics of Myocastor coypus (Rodentia: Echimyidae) in the centre of its native range

Myocastor coypus is a rodent native to South America that is strongly linked to river systems. Past studies on the coypu in its native distribution range were aimed mainly at its ecology and parasitology and genetic studies are very limited. Here, we used sequences of the mitochondrial D-loop control region to study the genetic diversity, population genetic structure and some aspects of historical population dynamics of coypu at the centre of its native range. Our results showed moderate to high levels of genetic diversity and an absence of genetic structure in the study area. Bayesian analysis of population structure (BAPS) showed the existence of two haplogroups distributed in most sampling sites. These results suggest that movement of coypu is independent of the structure of current known river networks and its dispersal patterns are related to flooding events and the presence of lagoons connecting river basins. The demographic expansion patterns in these populations and those of other South American mammals during the Late Pleistocene support the hypothesis that demographic changes in wild populations are related to fluctuations in climate and ecology. The mitochondrial data obtained in this study constitute the first record of these types of sequences in the native range of M. coypus.

Myocastor coypus es un roedor nativo de Sudamérica fuertemente ligado a los sistemas fluviales. En su área de distribución nativa, los estudios llevados a cabo en la especie estuvieron dirigidos principalmente a estudiar su ecología y zoonosis, sin embargo, los estudios genéticos son muy limitados. En el presente trabajo, utilizamos secuencias del d-loop de la Región Control del ADN mitocondrial para estudiar la diversidad genética, la estructura genética de la población y algunos aspectos de la dinámica poblacional histórica del coipo en el centro de su área de distribución. Nuestros resultados develaron niveles moderados y altos de diversidad genética, y ausencia de estructuración genética en el área de estudio. El BAPS exhibió la existencia de dos haplogrupos distribuidos en la mayoría de los sitios de muestreo. Estos resultados sugieren que el movimiento de los coipos sería independiente de la estructura de las redes fluviales actuales conocidas y que sus patrones de dispersión estarían relacionados con eventos de inundación y con la presencia de lagunas que conectan las cuencas fluviales. Los patrones de expansión demográfica observados en esta población de coipos y en otras poblaciones de mamíferos sudamericanos durante el Pleistoceno tardío, apoyan la hipótesis de que las fluctuaciones climáticas y los cambios ecológicos están relacionados con cambios demográficos en las poblaciones silvestres. Los datos mitocondriales obtenidos en este estudio constituyen el primer registro de este tipo de secuencias en el área de distribución nativa de esta especie.

Model design for non-parametric phylodynamic inference and applications to pathogen surveillance

Inference of effective population size from genomic data can provide unique information about demographic history, and when applied to pathogen genetic data can also provide insights into epidemiological dynamics. The combination of non-parametric models for population dynamics with molecular clock models which relate genetic data to time has enabled phylodynamic inference based on large sets of time-stamped genetic sequence data. The methodology for non-parametric inference of effective population size is well-developed in the Bayesian setting, but here we develop a frequentist approach based on non-parametric latent process models of population size dynamics. We appeal to statistical principles based on out-of-sample prediction accuracy in order to optimize parameters that control shape and smoothness of the population size over time. We demonstrate the flexibility and speed of this approach in a series of simulation experiments, and apply the methodology to reconstruct the previously described waves in the seventh pandemic of cholera. We also estimate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 in England using thousands of SARS-CoV-2 sequences. By incorporating a measure of the strength of these interventions over time within the phylodynamic model, we estimate the impact of the first national lockdown in the UK on the epidemic reproduction number.

Prevalence and Evolution of Noroviruses between 1966 and 2019, Implications for Vaccine Design

Noroviruses (NoVs), a group of single-stranded RNA viruses causing epidemic acute gastroenteritis in humans, are highly diverse, consisting of multiple genogroups with >30 genotypes. Their continual evolutions make NoV vaccine design and development difficult. Here, we report a study of NoV sequences obtained from a population-based diarrhea surveillance in Zhengding County of Hebei Province spanning from 2001 to 2019 and those available in the GenBank database from 1966 to 2019. NoV genotypes and/or variants that may evade immunity were screened and identified based on primary and conformational structures for vaccine design. We selected 366, 301, 139, 74 and 495 complete VP1-coding nucleotide sequences representing the predominant genotypes of GII.4, GII.2, GII.3, GII.6 and GII.17, respectively. A total of 16 distinct GII.4 variants were identified, showing a typical linear evolutionary pattern of variant replacement, while only 1–4 variants of the other genotypes were found to co-circulate over the 40–50-year period without typical variant replacement. The vaccine strain GII.4c is close to variant Sydney_2012 (0.053) in their primary structure, but they are distinct at epitopes A and E in conformations. Our data suggested GII.4 variant Sydney_2012, GII.2 variant A, a GII.3 strain, GII.6 variants B and C and GII.17 variant D are primary candidate strains for NoV vaccine development.

Molecular evolutionary analysis reveals Arctic-like rabies viruses evolved and dispersed independently in North and South Asia

Background

Arctic-like (AL) lineages of rabies viruses (RABVs) remains endemic in some Arctic and Asia countries. However, their evolutionary dynamics are largely unappreciated.

Objectives

We attempted to estimate the evolutionary history, geographic origin and spread of the Arctic-related RABVs.

Methods

Full length or partial sequences of the N and G genes were used to infer the evolutionary aspects of AL RABVs by Bayesian evolutionary analysis.

Results

The most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the current Arctic and AL RABVs emerged in the 1830s and evolved independently after diversification. Population demographic analysis indicated that the viruses experienced gradual growth followed by a sudden decrease in its population size from the mid-1980s to approximately 2000. Genetic flow patterns among the regions reveal a high geographic correlation in AL RABVs transmission. Discrete phylogeography suggests that the geographic origin of the AL RABVs was in east Russia in approximately the 1830s. The ancestral AL RABV then diversified and immigrated to the countries in Northeast Asia, while the viruses in South Asia were dispersed to the neighboring regions from India. The N and G genes of RABVs in both clades sustained high levels of purifying selection, and the positive selection sites were mainly found on the C-terminus of the G gene.

Conclusions

The current AL RABVs circulating in South and North Asia evolved and dispersed independently.

Bayesian Skyline Plots disagree with range size changes based on Species Distribution Models for Holarctic birds

During the Quaternary, large climate oscillations impacted the distribution and demography of species globally. Two approaches have played a major role in reconstructing changes through time: Bayesian Skyline Plots (BSPs), which reconstruct population fluctuations based on genetic data, and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), which allow us to back-cast the range occupied by a species based on its climatic preferences. In this paper, we contrast these two approaches by applying them to a large data set of 102 Holarctic bird species, for which both mitochondrial DNA sequences and distribution maps are available, to reconstruct their dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Most species experienced an increase in effective population size (N_e , as estimated by BSPs) as well as an increase in geographical range (as reconstructed by SDMs) since the LGM; however, we found no correlation between the magnitude of changes in N_e and range size. The only clear signal we could detect was a later and greater increase in N_e for wetland birds compared to species that live in other habitats, a probable consequence of a delayed and more extensive increase in the extent of this habitat type after the LGM. The lack of correlation between SDM and BSP reconstructions could not be reconciled even when range shifts were considered. We suggest that this pattern might be linked to changes in population densities, which can be independent of range changes, and caution that interpreting either SDMs or BSPs independently is problematic and potentially misleading.

Temporal dynamics of teleost populations during the Pleistocene: a report from publicly available genome data

Background

Global climate oscillation, as a selection dynamic, is an ecologically important element resulting in global biodiversity. During the glacial geological periods, most organisms suffered detrimental selection pressures (such as food shortage and habitat loss) and went through population declines. However, during the mild interglacial periods, many species re-flourished. These temporal dynamics of effective population sizes (N_e) provide essential information for understanding and predicting evolutionary outcomes during historical and ongoing global climate changes.

Results

Using high-quality genome assemblies and corresponding sequencing data, we applied the Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) method to quantify N_e changes of twelve representative teleost species from approximately 10 million years ago (mya) to 10 thousand years ago (kya). These results revealed multiple rounds of population contraction and expansion in most of the examined teleost species during the Neogene and the Quaternary periods. We observed that 83% (10/12) of the examined teleosts had experienced a drastic decline in N_e before the last glacial period (LGP, 110–12 kya), slightly earlier than the reported pattern of N_e changes in 38 avian species. In comparison with the peaks, almost all of the examined teleosts maintained long-term lower N_e values during the last few million years. This is consistent with increasingly dramatic glaciation during this period.

Conclusion

In summary, these findings provide a more comprehensive understanding of the historical N_e changes in teleosts. Results presented here could lead to the development of appropriate strategies to protect species in light of ongoing global climate changes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12864-021-07816-7.

Additive Uncorrelated Relaxed Clock Models for the Dating of Genomic Epidemiology Phylogenies

Phylogenetic dating is one of the most powerful and commonly used methods of drawing epidemiological interpretations from pathogen genomic data. Building such trees requires considering a molecular clock model which represents the rate at which substitutions accumulate on genomes. When the molecular clock rate is constant throughout the tree then the clock is said to be strict, but this is often not an acceptable assumption. Alternatively, relaxed clock models consider variations in the clock rate, often based on a distribution of rates for each branch. However, we show here that the distributions of rates across branches in commonly used relaxed clock models are incompatible with the biological expectation that the sum of the numbers of substitutions on two neighboring branches should be distributed as the substitution number on a single branch of equivalent length. We call this expectation the additivity property. We further show how assumptions of commonly used relaxed clock models can lead to estimates of evolutionary rates and dates with low precision and biased confidence intervals. We therefore propose a new additive relaxed clock model where the additivity property is satisfied. We illustrate the use of our new additive relaxed clock model on a range of simulated and real data sets, and we show that using this new model leads to more accurate estimates of mean evolutionary rates and ancestral dates.

Genetic Insights into Feline Parvovirus: Evaluation of Viral Evolutionary Patterns and Association between Phylogeny and Clinical Variables

Feline panleukopenia is a severe disease of cats caused by feline parvovirus (FPV), and marginally canine parvovirus (CPV). Despite being less rapid than CPV, FPV evolution deserves attention, especially since outbreaks of particular severity are currently reported. This apparently different virulence needs monitoring from genetic and clinical points of view. This manuscript explored FPV molecular epidemiology at both Italian and international levels and the possible association between viral phylogeny and disease severity. Sequences from clinical cases of feline panleukopenia in Italy were obtained from 2011 to 2019, and the etiological agent was characterized, distinguishing FPV from CPV. Phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses were conducted on Italian and international sequences. Moreover, the association between the viral sequence and clinical variables was evaluated on a group of highly characterized patients. After its origin in the 1920s, FPV showed a constant population size until a more recent expansion since 2000. Few long-distance introduction events characterized FPV spreading, however, most of its evolution occurred locally. Although without a strong statistical association, several clinical variables appeared influenced by viral phylogeny, suggesting a differential virulence potentially characterizing FPV strains. These results stress the importance of the continuous study of viral evolution and its repercussions on the disease clinical aspects.

Are Skyline Plot-Based Demographic Estimates Overly Dependent on Smoothing Prior Assumptions?

In Bayesian phylogenetics, the coalescent process provides an informative framework for inferring changes in the effective size of a population from a phylogeny (or tree) of sequences sampled from that population. Popular coalescent inference approaches such as the Bayesian Skyline Plot, Skyride, and Skygrid all model these population size changes with a discontinuous, piecewise-constant function but then apply a smoothing prior to ensure that their posterior population size estimates transition gradually with time. These prior distributions implicitly encode extra population size information that is not available from the observed coalescent data or tree. Here, we present a novel statistic, $\Omega$, to quantify and disaggregate the relative contributions of the coalescent data and prior assumptions to the resulting posterior estimate precision. Our statistic also measures the additional mutual information introduced by such priors. Using $\Omega$ we show that, because it is surprisingly easy to overparametrize piecewise-constant population models, common smoothing priors can lead to overconfident and potentially misleading inference, even under robust experimental designs. We propose $\Omega$ as a useful tool for detecting when effective population size estimates are overly reliant on prior assumptions and for improving quantification of the uncertainty in those estimates.[Coalescent processes; effective population size; information theory; phylodynamics; prior assumptions; skyline plots.].

Comparative phylogeography of two Northern Rocky Mountain endemics: the widespread Anguispira kochi occidentalis and the narrow-range Anguispira nimapuna (Gastropoda: Discidae)

The Northern Rocky Mountain ecosystem supports rich biological diversity with many endemic and rare species. Extant endemics display two biogeographic patterns: widespread species with fragmented populations, and narrow-range endemics. These distributions are shown by the congeneric snails Anguispira kochi occidentalis and Anguispira nimapuna. These two taxa are disjunct from the remaining species of the genus, which achieves its greatest diversity in eastern North America. Given the disjunct nature of A. k. occidentalis and A. nimapuna, we here present a mtDNA phylogeny of the genus that includes both eastern and western species to assess the phylogenetic position of A. k. occidentalis and A. nimapuna. We then reconstruct the demographic history of A. k. occidentalis and A. nimapuna by analysing current patterns of genetic variation and interpreting the results considering the historical biogeography of the region. Both A. k. occidentalis and A. nimapuna represent unique taxa that are genetically and geographically distinct from their congeners. The current distribution and genetic structure of A. k. occidentalis has been shaped by both historical isolation in refugia and more recent northward shifts, whereas A. nimapuna is represented by two populations with shallow divergence in an area of long-term habitat stability.

mtDNAcombine: tools to combine sequences from multiple studies

BACKGROUND

Today an unprecedented amount of genetic sequence data is stored in publicly available repositories. For decades now, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) has been the workhorse of genetic studies, and as a result, there is a large volume of mtDNA data available in these repositories for a wide range of species. Indeed, whilst whole genome sequencing is an exciting prospect for the future, for most non-model organisms' classical markers such as mtDNA remain widely used. By compiling existing data from multiple original studies, it is possible to build powerful new datasets capable of exploring many questions in ecology, evolution and conservation biology. One key question that these data can help inform is what happened in a species' demographic past. However, compiling data in this manner is not trivial, there are many complexities associated with data extraction, data quality and data handling.

RESULTS

Here we present the mtDNAcombine package, a collection of tools developed to manage some of the major decisions associated with handling multi-study sequence data with a particular focus on preparing sequence data for Bayesian skyline plot demographic reconstructions.

CONCLUSIONS

There is now more genetic information available than ever before and large meta-data sets offer great opportunities to explore new and exciting avenues of research. However, compiling multi-study datasets still remains a technically challenging prospect. The mtDNAcombine package provides a pipeline to streamline the process of downloading, curating, and analysing sequence data, guiding the process of compiling data sets from the online database GenBank.

The phylogeny, phylogeography, and diversification history of the westernmost Asian cobra (Serpentes: Elapidae: Naja oxiana) in the Trans-Caspian region

We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the phylogenetic, phylogeographic, and demographic relationships of Caspian cobra (Naja oxiana; Eichwald, 1831) populations based on a concatenated dataset of two mtDNA genes (cyt b and ND4) across the species' range in Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan, along with other members of Asian cobras (i.e., subgenus Naja Laurenti, 1768). Our results robustly supported that the Asiatic Naja are monophyletic, as previously suggested by other studies. Furthermore, N. kaouthia and N. sagittifera were recovered as sister taxa to each other, and in turn sister clades to N. oxiana. Our results also highlighted the existence of a single major evolutionary lineage for populations of N. oxiana in the Trans-Caspian region, suggesting a rapid expansion of this cobra from eastern to western Asia, coupled with a rapid range expansion from east of Iran toward the northeast. However, across the Iranian range of N. oxiana, subdivision of populations was not supported, and thus, a single evolutionary significant unit is proposed for inclusion in future conservation plans in this region.

Genetic assessment reveals no population substructure and divergent regional and sex-specific histories in the Chachapoyas from northeast Peru

Many native populations in South America have been severely impacted by two relatively recent historical events, the Inca and the Spanish conquest. However decisive these disruptive events may have been, the populations and their gene pools have been shaped markedly also by the history prior to the conquests. This study focuses mainly on the Chachapoya peoples that inhabit the montane forests on the eastern slopes of the northern Peruvian Andes, but also includes three distinct neighboring populations (the Jívaro, the Huancas and the Cajamarca). By assessing mitochondrial, Y-chromosomal and autosomal diversity in the region, we explore questions that have emerged from archaeological and historical studies of the regional culture (s). These studies have shown, among others, that Chachapoyas was a crossroads for Coast-Andes-Amazon interactions since very early times. In this study, we examine the following questions: 1) was there pre-Hispanic genetic population substructure in the Chachapoyas sample? 2) did the Spanish conquest cause a more severe population decline on Chachapoyan males than on females? 3) can we detect different patterns of European gene flow in the Chachapoyas region? and, 4) did the demographic history in the Chachapoyas resemble the one from the Andean area? Despite cultural differences within the Chachapoyas region as shown by archaeological and ethnohistorical research, genetic markers show no significant evidence for past or current population substructure, although an Amazonian gene flow dynamic in the northern part of this territory is suggested. The data also indicates a bottleneck c. 25 generations ago that was more severe among males than females, as well as divergent population histories for populations in the Andean and Amazonian regions. In line with previous studies, we observe high genetic diversity in the Chachapoyas, despite the documented dramatic population declines. The diverse topography and great biodiversity of the northeastern Peruvian montane forests are potential contributing agents in shaping and maintaining the high genetic diversity in the Chachapoyas region.

Comparative phylogeography of two Agarophyton species in the New Zealand archipelago

Molecular studies have reported the coexistence of two species of Agarophyton in New Zealand: the newly described A.transtasmanicum with an apparently restricted distribution to some sites in the North Island, and the more widespread A.chilense. Here, we compared the distribution, genetic diversity, and structure of both Agarophyton species throughout the archipelago using sequences of the nuclear Internal Transcribed Spacer 2 (ITS2) marker. Agarophyton chilense's distribution was continuous and extensive along the North and South Islands, Stewart Island, and Chatham Island, and the genetic clusters were mostly concordant with boundaries between biogeographic regions. In contrast, specimens of A.transtasmanicum were collected in four sites broadly distributed in both the North and South Islands, with no clear spatial structure of the genetic diversity. Populations, where the species co-occurred, tended to display similar levels in genetic diversity for the two species. Demographic inferences supported a postglacial demographic expansion for two A.chilense genetic clusters, one present in the South Island and the eastern coast of the North Island, and the other present in northern South Island. A third genetic cluster located on the western coast of the North Island had a signature of long-term demographic stability. For A.transtasmanicum, the skyline plot also suggested a postglacial demographic expansion. Last, we developed a new molecular tool to quickly and easily distinguish between the two Agarophyton species, which could be used to ease future fine-scale population studies, especially in areas where the two species coexist.

Adaptive Estimation for Epidemic Renewal and Phylogenetic Skyline Models

Estimating temporal changes in a target population from phylogenetic or count data is an important problem in ecology and epidemiology. Reliable estimates can provide key insights into the climatic and biological drivers influencing the diversity or structure of that population and evidence hypotheses concerning its future growth or decline. In infectious disease applications, the individuals infected across an epidemic form the target population. The renewal model estimates the effective reproduction number, R, of the epidemic from counts of observed incident cases. The skyline model infers the effective population size, N, underlying a phylogeny of sequences sampled from that epidemic. Practically, R measures ongoing epidemic growth while N informs on historical caseload. While both models solve distinct problems, the reliability of their estimates depends on p-dimensional piecewise-constant functions. If p is misspecified, the model might underfit significant changes or overfit noise and promote a spurious understanding of the epidemic, which might misguide intervention policies or misinform forecasts. Surprisingly, no transparent yet principled approach for optimizing p exists. Usually, p is heuristically set, or obscurely controlled via complex algorithms. We present a computable and interpretable p-selection method based on the minimum description length (MDL) formalism of information theory. Unlike many standard model selection techniques, MDL accounts for the additional statistical complexity induced by how parameters interact. As a result, our method optimizes p so that R and N estimates properly and meaningfully adapt to available data. It also outperforms comparable Akaike and Bayesian information criteria on several classification problems, given minimal knowledge of the parameter space, and exposes statistical similarities among renewal, skyline, and other models in biology. Rigorous and interpretable model selection is necessary if trustworthy and justifiable conclusions are to be drawn from piecewise models. [Coalescent processes; epidemiology; information theory; model selection; phylodynamics; renewal models; skyline plots].

Phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling of the wood frog Batrachyla leptopus (Batrachylidae) reveal interglacial diversification in south western Patagonia

Background

The evolutionary history of southern South American organisms has been strongly influenced by Pleistocene climate oscillations. Amphibians are good models to evaluate hypotheses about the influence of these climate cycles on population structure and diversification of the biota, because they are sensitive to environmental changes and have restricted dispersal capabilities. We test hypotheses regarding putative forest refugia and expansion events associated with past climatic changes in the wood frog Batrachyla leptopus distributed along ∼1,000 km of length including glaciated and non-glaciated areas in southwestern Patagonia.

Methods

Using three mitochondrial regions (D-loop, cyt b, and coI) and two nuclear loci (pomc and crybA1), we conducted multilocus phylogeographic analyses and species distribution modelling to gain insights of the evolutionary history of this species. Intraspecific genealogy was explored with maximum likelihood, Bayesian, and phylogenetic network approaches. Diversification time was assessed using molecular clock models in a Bayesian framework, and demographic scenarios were evaluated using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and extended Bayesian skyline plot (EBSP). Species distribution models (SDM) were reconstructed using climatic and geographic data.

Results

Population structure and genealogical analyses support the existence of four lineages distributed north to south, with moderate to high phylogenetic support (Bootstrap > 70%; BPP > 0.92). The diversification time of B. leptopus’ populations began at ∼0.107 mya. The divergence between A and B lineages would have occurred by the late Pleistocene, approximately 0.068 mya, and divergence between C and D lineages was approximately 0.065 mya. The ABC simulations indicate that lineages coalesced at two different time periods, suggesting the presence of at least two glacial refugia and a postglacial colonization route that may have generated two southern lineages (p = 0.93, type I error: <0.094, type II error: 0.134). EBSP, mismatch distribution and neutrality indexes suggest sudden population expansion at ∼0.02 mya for all lineages. SDM infers fragmented distributions of B. leptopus associated with Pleistocene glaciations. Although the present populations of B. leptopus are found in zones affected by the last glacial maximum (∼0.023 mya), our analyses recover an older history of interglacial diversification (0.107–0.019 mya). In addition, we hypothesize two glacial refugia and three interglacial colonization routes, one of which gave rise to two expanding lineages in the south.

Assessing the evolutionary persistence of ecological relationships: A review and preview

Species interactions, such as pollination, parasitism and predation, form the basis of functioning ecosystems. The origins and resilience of such interactions therefore merit attention. However, fossils only occasionally document ancient interactions, and phylogenetic methods are blind to recent interactions. Is there some other way to track shared species experiences? "Comparative demography" examines when pairs of species jointly thrived or declined. By forging links between ecology, epidemiology, and evolutionary biology, this method sheds light on biological adaptation, species resilience, and ecosystem health. Here, we describe how this method works, discuss examples, and suggest future directions in hopes of inspiring interest, imitators, and critics.

Multi-Species Phylogeography of Arid-Zone Sminthopsinae (Marsupialia: Dasyuridae) Reveals Evidence of Refugia and Population Expansion in Response to Quaternary Change

Historical population contraction and expansion events associated with Pleistocene climate change are important drivers of intraspecific population structure in Australian arid-zone species. We compared phylogeographic patterns among arid-adapted Dasyuridae (Sminthopsis and Planigale) with close phylogenetic relationships and similar ecological roles to investigate the drivers of phylogeographic structuring and the importance of historical refugia. We generated haplotype networks for two mitochondrial (control region and cytochrome b) and one nuclear (omega-globin) gene from samples distributed across each species range. We used Φ_ST to test for a genetic population structure associated with the four Pilbara subregions, and we used expansion statistics and Bayesian coalescent skyline analysis to test for signals of historical population expansion and the timing of such events. Significant population structure associated with the Pilbara and subregions was detected in the mitochondrial data for most species, but not with the nuclear data. Evidence of population expansion was detected for all species, and it likely began during the mid-late Pleistocene. The timing of population expansion suggests that these species responded favorably to the increased availability of arid habitats during the mid-late Pleistocene, which is when previously patchy habitats became more widespread. We interpret our results to indicate that the Pilbara region could have acted as a refugium for small dasyurids.

Jointly Inferring the Dynamics of Population Size and Sampling Intensity from Molecular Sequences

Estimating past population dynamics from molecular sequences that have been sampled longitudinally through time is an important problem in infectious disease epidemiology, molecular ecology, and macroevolution. Popular solutions, such as the skyline and skygrid methods, infer past effective population sizes from the coalescent event times of phylogenies reconstructed from sampled sequences but assume that sequence sampling times are uninformative about population size changes. Recent work has started to question this assumption by exploring how sampling time information can aid coalescent inference. Here, we develop, investigate, and implement a new skyline method, termed the epoch sampling skyline plot (ESP), to jointly estimate the dynamics of population size and sampling rate through time. The ESP is inspired by real-world data collection practices and comprises a flexible model in which the sequence sampling rate is proportional to the population size within an epoch but can change discontinuously between epochs. We show that the ESP is accurate under several realistic sampling protocols and we prove analytically that it can at least double the best precision achievable by standard approaches. We generalize the ESP to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty in a new Bayesian package (BESP) in BEAST2. We re-examine two well-studied empirical data sets from virus epidemiology and molecular evolution and find that the BESP improves upon previous coalescent estimators and generates new, biologically useful insights into the sampling protocols underpinning these data sets. Sequence sampling times provide a rich source of information for coalescent inference that will become increasingly important as sequence collection intensifies and becomes more formalized.

Geographic patterns in colonial reproductive strategy in Myrmecina nipponica: Links between biogeography and a key polymorphism in ants

The ability to express different phenotypes can help define species distributions by allowing access to, and exploitation of, new environments. Social insects employ two markedly different reproductive strategies with contrasting cost/benefit characteristics: independent colony foundation (ICF), which is associated with high dispersal range and high risk, and dependent colony foundation (DCF), characterized by low risk but low dispersal. The ant Myrmecina nipponica employs both of these strategies, with the frequency of each apparently varying between populations. We combine molecular data with data on reproductive strategy from different populations of this species throughout Japan to explore how this polymorphism is linked to environmental factors and whether this relationship can help explain the current and historical biogeography of this species. Reproductive strategy exhibited a strong geographic pattern, with ICF predominant in southern populations and DCF more common in northern and southern highland populations. Molecular analyses clearly divided populations into broad geographic regions, with the southern lowland populations basal to (southern highland (+ northern)) populations. Intra-population polymorphism in colony-founding strategy was widespread, and polymorphism was reconstructed as the likely ancestral state. The frequency of different strategies was linked with climate, with DCF more common in colder areas. A recent inferred origin to the northern lineage suggests that colonization of northern Japan was a rapid event coincident with warming at the end of the Last Glacial Maxima, likely facilitated by the cold-adaptive advantages of DCF. We discuss how such polymorphisms could help explain the biogeography of this and other social insects.

Postglacial Colonization of Northern Coastal Habitat by Bottlenose Dolphins: A Marine Leading-Edge Expansion?

Oscillations in the Earth's temperature and the subsequent retreating and advancing of ice-sheets around the polar regions are thought to have played an important role in shaping the distribution and genetic structuring of contemporary high-latitude populations. After the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), retreating of the ice-sheets would have enabled early colonizers to rapidly occupy suitable niches to the exclusion of other conspecifics, thereby reducing genetic diversity at the leading-edge. Bottlenose dolphins (genus Tursiops) form distinct coastal and pelagic ecotypes, with finer-scale genetic structuring observed within each ecotype. We reconstruct the postglacial colonization of the Northeast Atlantic (NEA) by bottlenose dolphins using habitat modeling and phylogenetics. The AquaMaps model hindcasted suitable habitat for the LGM in the Atlantic lower latitude waters and parts of the Mediterranean Sea. The time-calibrated phylogeny, constructed with 86 complete mitochondrial genomes including 30 generated for this study and created using a multispecies coalescent model, suggests that the expansion to the available coastal habitat in the NEA happened via founder events starting ~15 000 years ago (95% highest posterior density interval: 4 900-26 400). The founders of the 2 distinct coastal NEA populations comprised as few as 2 maternal lineages that originated from the pelagic population. The low effective population size and genetic diversity estimated for the shared ancestral coastal population subsequent to divergence from the pelagic source population are consistent with leading-edge expansion. These findings highlight the legacy of the Late Pleistocene glacial cycles on the genetic structuring and diversity of contemporary populations.

The recent colonization history of the most widespread Podocarpus tree species in Afromontane forests

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Afromontane forests host a unique biodiversity distributed in isolated high-elevation habitats within a matrix of rain forests or savannahs, yet they share a remarkable flora that raises questions about past connectivity between currently isolated forests. Here, we focused on the Podocarpus latifolius-P. milanjianus complex (Podocarpaceae), the most widely distributed conifers throughout sub-Saharan African highlands, to infer its demographic history from genetic data.

METHODS

We sequenced the whole plastid genome, mitochondrial DNA regions and nuclear ribosomal DNA of 88 samples from Cameroon to Angola in western Central Africa and from Kenya to the Cape region in eastern and southern Africa to reconstruct time-calibrated phylogenies and perform demographic inferences.

KEY RESULTS

We show that P. latifolius and P. milanjianus form a single species, whose lineages diverged during the Pleistocene, mostly between approx, 200 000 and 300 000 years BP, after which they underwent a wide range expansion leading to their current distributions. Confronting phylogenomic and palaeoecological data, we argue that the species originated in East Africa and reached the highlands of the Atlantic side of Africa through two probable latitudinal migration corridors: a northern one towards the Cameroon volcanic line, and a southern one towards Angola. Although the species is now rare in large parts of its range, no demographic decline was detected, probably because it occurred too recently to have left a genetic signature in our DNA sequences.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the ancient and highly fluctuating history of podocarps in Africa revealed by palaeobotanical records, the extended distribution of current P. latifolius/milanjianus lineages is shown to result from a more recent history, mostly during the mid-late Pleistocene, when Afromontane forests were once far more widespread and continuous.

Reporting of New tick-borne encephalitis virus strains isolated in Eastern Siberia (Russia) in 1960-2011 and explaining them in an evolutionary context using Bayesian phylogenetic inference

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) is one of the main tick-borne viral pathogens of humans. Infection may induce signs of meningitis, encephalitis, paralysis and high fever. TBEV is well studied by molecular phylogenetic methods. The present-day implementation of Bayesian phylogenetic models allows population dynamics to be tracked, providing changes in population size that were not directly observed. However, the description of the past population dynamics of TBEV is rare in the literature. In our investigation, we provide data on the dynamics of viral genetic diversity of TBEV in Zabaikalsky Krai (Eastern Siberia, Russia) revealed by the Bayesian coalescent inference in a BEAST program. As a data set, we used the envelope (E) protein partial gene sequences (1308 nt) of 38 TBEV strains (including six "886-84-like" or Baikalian subtype strains (TBEV-B)), isolated in Zabaikalsky Krai (Eastern Siberia, Russia) in 1960-1963 and 1995-2011. To increase estimations reliability, we compared 9 model combinations by Path sampling and Stepping-stone sampling methods. It has been shown that the genetic diversity decline in the population history of TBEV in the 1950s coincides with the date of the beginning of wide dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane forest dusting in Siberia. We assumed that the TBEV population on the territory of Siberia went through a genetic bottleneck. Also, we provide data estimating the divergence time of TBEV-B strains and indicate the specific evolution rate of an ancestor lineage of the Baikalian subtype, illustrated on a phylogenetic tree, and reconstructed under a relaxed clock model.

Genetic variability and demographic history of Anguilla mossambica (Peters, 1852) from continental Africa and Madagascar

In this study, population genetic and demographic parameters were inferred using sequence data from 151 individuals of Anguilla mossambica originating from continental south and south-east Africa and Madagascar. The analyses were based on a 532 bp segment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. The absence of genetic structuring was observed thereby supporting the hypothesis of panmixia for the endemic A. mossambica. The overall nucleotide diversity π = 0.002 and the haplotype diversity reached h = 0.691. Significant negative values from several tests of neutrality and mismatch analysis pointed to fluctuating historical population sizes. Bayesian averaging resulted in higher support for population growth models vs. a constant population-size model. Population decline and subsequent growth most likely predated the last glacial and were probably related to extended periods of extreme drought followed by wetter and more stable hydroclimate between 150 and 75,000 years before present (kBP). According to this scenario the female effective population size has increased since 110 kBP by c. two orders of magnitude to a recent level of about 650,000 (219,317-2,292,000).

Deep-Time Demographic Inference Suggests Ecological Release as Driver of Neoavian Adaptive Radiation

Assessing the applicability of theory to major adaptive radiations in deep time represents an extremely difficult problem in evolutionary biology. Neoaves, which includes 95% of living birds, is believed to have undergone a period of rapid diversification roughly coincident with the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary. We investigate whether basal neoavian lineages experienced an ecological release in response to ecological opportunity, as evidenced by density compensation. We estimated effective population sizes (Ne) of basal neoavian lineages by combining coalescent branch lengths (CBLs) and the numbers of generations between successive divergences. We used a modified version of Accurate Species TRee Algorithm (ASTRAL) to estimate CBLs directly from insertion–deletion (indel) data, as well as from gene trees using DNA sequence and/or indel data. We found that some divergences near the K-Pg boundary involved unexpectedly high gene tree discordance relative to the estimated number of generations between speciation events. The simplest explanation for this result is an increase in Ne, despite the caveats discussed herein. It appears that at least some early neoavian lineages, similar to the ancestor of the clade comprising doves, mesites, and sandgrouse, experienced ecological release near the time of the K-Pg mass extinction.

Highly regional population structure of Spondyliosoma cantharus depicted by nuclear and mitochondrial DNA data

Resolution of population structure represents an effective way to define biological stocks and inform efficient fisheries management. In the present study, the phylogeography of the protogynous sparid Spondyliosoma cantharus, in the East Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea, was investigated with nuclear (S7) and mitochondrial (cytochrome b) DNA markers. Significant divergence of four regional genetic groups was observed: North Eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, Western African Transition (Cape Verde) and Gulf of Guinea (Angola). The two southern populations (Cape Verde and Angola) each comprised reciprocally monophyletic mtDNA lineages, revealed low levels of diversity in Cape Verde and high diversity for Angola despite being represented by only 14 individuals. A complete divergence between North Atlantic and Mediterranean populations was depicted by the mitochondrial marker, but a highly shared nuclear haplotype revealed an incomplete lineage sorting between these regions. Bayesian skyline plots and associated statistics revealed different dynamics among the four regions. Cape Verde showed no expansion and the expansion time estimated for Angola was much older than for the other regions. Mediterranean region seems to have experienced an early population growth but has remained with a stable population size for the last 30000 years while the North Atlantic population has been steadily growing. The lack of genetic structuring within these regions should not be taken as evidence of demographic panmixia in light of potential resolution thresholds and previous evidence of intra-regional phenotypic heterogeneity.

Unexpectedly high genetic diversity in a rare and endangered seabird in the Hawaiian Archipelago

Seabirds in the order of Procellariiformes have one of the highest proportions of threatened species of any avian order. Species undergoing recovery may be predicted to have a genetic signature of a bottleneck, low genetic diversity, or higher rates of inbreeding. The Hawaiian Band-rumped Storm Petrel ('Akē'akē; Hydrobates castro), a long-lived philopatric seabird, suffered massive population declines resulting in its listing under the Endangered Species Act in 2016 as federally Endangered. We used high-throughput sequencing to assess patterns of genetic diversity and potential for inbreeding in remaining populations in the Hawaiian Islands. We compared a total of 24 individuals, including both historical and modern samples, collected from breeding colonies or downed individuals found on the islands of Kaua'i, O'ahu, Maui, and the Big Island of Hawai'i. Genetic analyses revealed little differentiation between breeding colonies on Kaua'i and the Big Island colonies. Although small sample sizes limit inferences regarding other island colonies, downed individuals from O'ahu and Maui did not assign to known breeding colonies, suggesting the existence of an additional distinct breeding population. The maintenance of genetic diversity in future generations is an important consideration for conservation management. This study provides a baseline of population structure for the remaining nesting colonies that could inform potential translocations of the Endangered H. castro.

Co-circulation of both low and highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses in current poultry epidemics in Taiwan

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) viruses belonging to clade 2.3.4.4c of the A/goose/Guangdong/1/96-like (Gs/GD) lineage caused severe global outbreaks in domestic birds from 2014 to 2015, that also represented the first incursions of Gs/GD viruses into Taiwan and the USA. However, few studies have investigated the circulation of clade 2.3.4.4c viruses after 2015. Here, we describe Gs/GD clade 2.3.4.4c and Mexican-like H5N2 viruses that were isolated in Taiwan during active surveillance conducted in chicken farms from February to March 2019. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated two distinct genome constellations of the clade 2.3.4.4c H5 viruses, with the internal genes of one of the new genotypes closely related to a virus isolated from a pintail (Anas acuta) in Taiwan, providing the first direct evidence that migratory birds play a role in importing viruses into Taiwan. Our study also confirmed the co-circulation of Gs/GD clade 2.3.4.4c and Mexican-like H5 lineage viruses in Taiwan, presenting a rare case where Gs/GD viruses developed sustained transmission alongside another enzootic H5 lineage, raising the possibility that homosubtypic immunity may mask virus transmission, potentially frustrating detection, and the implementation of appropriate control measures. To eradicate H5 viruses from poultry in Taiwan, further studies on the effect of co-circulation in poultry of low pathogenic avian influenza and HPAI viruses are needed. Furthermore, only with continued surveillance efforts globally can we fully discern dispersal patterns and risk factors of virus transmission both to and within Taiwan.

A practical introduction to sequentially Markovian coalescent methods for estimating demographic history from genomic data

A common goal of population genomics and molecular ecology is to reconstruct the demographic history of a species of interest. A pair of powerful tools based on the sequentially Markovian coalescent have been developed to infer past population sizes using genome sequences. These methods are most useful when sequences are available for only a limited number of genomes and when the aim is to study ancient demographic events. The results of these analyses can be difficult to interpret accurately, because doing so requires some understanding of their theoretical basis and of their sensitivity to confounding factors. In this practical review, we explain some of the key concepts underpinning the pairwise and multiple sequentially Markovian coalescent methods (PSMC and MSMC, respectively). We relate these concepts to the use and interpretation of these methods, and we explain how the choice of different parameter values by the user can affect the accuracy and precision of the inferences. Based on our survey of 100 PSMC studies and 30 MSMC studies, we describe how the two methods are used in practice. Readers of this article will become familiar with the principles, practice, and interpretation of the sequentially Markovian coalescent for inferring demographic history.

The enigmatic Leiosaurae clade: Phylogeography, species delimitation, phylogeny and historical biogeography of its southernmost species

The clade Leiosaurae is composed of poorly-known species endemic to the southern region of South America. The difficulties of finding these lizards in the field, and their highly conserved morphology, have limited our taxonomic knowledge and understanding of their evolutionary histories. Here, we use data collected over 9 years to study the phylogenetic history, genetic diversity, and biogeographic history of almost all the southernmost species of Leiosaurae (except P. nigroigulus), including: Leiosaurus bellii, Diplolaemus darwinii, D. bibronii, D. sexcinctus and D. leopardinus. We use a fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome-b gene to resolve general phylogeographic patterns, and add another mitochondrial gene and eight nuclear genes to perform species delimitation and phylogenetic analyses associated with divergence times. We found evidence for three putative new species-level taxa within L. bellii and five within Diplolaemus species, indicating high levels of geographic structure. We use a time-calibrated phylogeny to estimate ranges of ancestral distributions and to generate new hypotheses about their historical biogeography.

Population genetic structure of the thick-tailed bushbaby (Otolemur crassicaudatus) from the Soutpansberg Mountain range, Northern South Africa, based on four mitochondrial DNA regions

Greater bushbabies, strepsirrhine primates, that are distributed across central, eastern and southern Africa, with northern and eastern South Africa representing the species' most southerly distribution. Greater bushbabies are habitat specialists whose naturally fragmented habitats are getting even more fragmented due to anthropogenic activities. Currently, there is no population genetic data or study published on the species. The aim of our study was to investigate the genetic variation in a thick-tailed bushbaby, Otolemur crassicaudatus, population in the Soutpansberg mountain range, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Four mitochondrial regions, ranging from highly conserved to highly variable, were sequenced from 47 individuals. The sequences were aligned and genetic diversity, structure, as well as demographic analyses were performed. Low genetic diversity (π = 0.0007-0.0038 in coding regions and π = 0.0127 in non-coding region; Hd = 0.166-0.569 in coding regions and Hd = 0.584 in non-coding region) and sub-structuring (H = 2-3 in coding regions and H = 4 in non-coding region) was observed with two divergent haplogroups (haplotype pairwise distance = 3-5 in coding region and 6-10 in non-coding region) being identified. This suggests the population may have experienced fixation of mitochondrial haplotypes due to limited female immigration, which is consistent with philopatric species, that alternative haplotypes are not native to this population, and that there may be male mobility from adjacent populations. This study provides the first detailed insights into the mitochondrial genetic diversity of a continental African strepsirrhine primate and demonstrates the utility of mitochondrial DNA in intraspecific genetic population analyses of these primates.

Phylogeography of Puumala orthohantavirus in Europe

Puumala virus is an RNA virus hosted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) and is today present in most European countries. Whilst it is generally accepted that hantaviruses have been tightly co-evolving with their hosts, Puumala virus (PUUV) evolutionary history is still controversial and so far has not been studied at the whole European level. This study attempts to reconstruct the phylogeographical spread of modern PUUV throughout Europe during the last postglacial period in the light of an upgraded dataset of complete PUUV small (S) segment sequences and by using most recent computational approaches. Taking advantage of the knowledge on the past migrations of its host, we identified at least three potential independent dispersal routes of PUUV during postglacial recolonization of Europe by the bank vole. From the Alpe-Adrian region (Balkan, Austria, and Hungary) to Western European countries (Germany, France, Belgium, and Netherland), and South Scandinavia. From the vicinity of Carpathian Mountains to the Baltic countries and to Poland, Russia, and Finland. The dissemination towards Denmark and North Scandinavia is more hypothetical and probably involved several independent streams from south and north Fennoscandia.

The multifurcating skyline plot

A variety of methods based on coalescent theory have been developed to infer demographic history from gene sequences sampled from natural populations. The 'skyline plot' and related approaches are commonly employed as flexible prior distributions for phylogenetic trees in the Bayesian analysis of pathogen gene sequences. In this work we extend the classic and generalized skyline plot methods to phylogenies that contain one or more multifurcations (i.e. hard polytomies). We use the theory of Λ-coalescents (specifically, Beta ( 2 - α , α ) -coalescents) to develop the 'multifurcating skyline plot', which estimates a piecewise constant function of effective population size through time, conditional on a time-scaled multifurcating phylogeny. We implement a smoothing procedure and extend the method to serially sampled (heterochronous) data, but we do not address here the problem of estimating trees with multifurcations from gene sequence alignments. We validate our estimator on simulated data using maximum likelihood and find that parameters of the Beta ( 2 - α , α ) -coalescent process can be estimated accurately. Furthermore, we apply the multifurcating skyline plot to simulated trees generated by tracking transmissions in an individual-based model of epidemic superspreading. We find that high levels of superspreading are consistent with the high-variance assumptions underlying Λ-coalescents and that the estimated parameters of the Λ-coalescent model contain information about the degree of superspreading.

Bayesian inference of ancestral dates on bacterial phylogenetic trees

The sequencing and comparative analysis of a collection of bacterial genomes from a single species or lineage of interest can lead to key insights into its evolution, ecology or epidemiology. The tool of choice for such a study is often to build a phylogenetic tree, and more specifically when possible a dated phylogeny, in which the dates of all common ancestors are estimated. Here, we propose a new Bayesian methodology to construct dated phylogenies which is specifically designed for bacterial genomics. Unlike previous Bayesian methods aimed at building dated phylogenies, we consider that the phylogenetic relationships between the genomes have been previously evaluated using a standard phylogenetic method, which makes our methodology much faster and scalable. This two-step approach also allows us to directly exploit existing phylogenetic methods that detect bacterial recombination, and therefore to account for the effect of recombination in the construction of a dated phylogeny. We analysed many simulated datasets in order to benchmark the performance of our approach in a wide range of situations. Furthermore, we present applications to three different real datasets from recent bacterial genomic studies. Our methodology is implemented in a R package called BactDating which is freely available for download at https://github.com/xavierdidelot/BactDating.

Historical climate changes and hybridization shaped the evolution of Atlantic Forest spinetails (Aves: Furnariidae)

Combining phylogeographic approaches and hybrid zone inference in a single framework is a robust way to depict respectively the biogeographic history of lineages and the evolutionary processes responsible for speciation. Here, we studied the spatiotemporal patterns of diversification and characterize the hybrid zone between two Atlantic Forest spinetails (Synallaxis ruficapilla and Synallaxis cinerea) using mitochondrial DNA and nuclear (autosomal and Z-linked) genes. We consistently recovered divergence between and within the two species during the late Pliocene and Pleistocene using an isolation with migration model. Also, our results indicate distinct levels of introgression among lineages. Ecological niche models and demographic inferences, used to infer range distributions throughout the late Quaternary, were not consistent with the hypothesis of a large river as a primary barrier responsible for the divergence of the two species. Instead, a scenario of isolation and divergence followed by geographic expansion and admixture as a consequence of Quaternary climatic oscillations was supported. Paleomodels also were not consistent with the idea that the hybrid zone originated in primary differentiation and favor a secondary contact scenario. Model fitting indicated that clines of different loci spanning the hybrid zone are coincident and concordant. The narrow cline for one Z-linked locus could be indicative of some form of post-zygotic selection hindering genetic homogenization between the two species.

Rapid ecological specialization despite constant population sizes

BACKGROUND

The bushbuck, Tragelaphus scriptus, is a widespread and ecologically diverse ungulate species complex within the spiral-horned antelopes. This species was recently found to consist of two genetically divergent but monophyletic lineages, which are paraphyletic at mitochondrial (mt)DNA owing to an ancient interspecific hybridization event. The Scriptus lineage (T. s. scriptus) inhabits the north-western half of the African continent while Sylvaticus (T. s. sylvaticus) is found in the south-eastern half. Here we test hypotheses of historical demography and adaptation in bushbuck using a higher-resolution framework, with four nuclear (MGF, PRKCI, SPTBN, and THY) and three new mitochondrial markers (cytochrome b, 12S rRNA, and 16S rRNA).

METHODS

Genealogies were reconstructed for the mitochondrial and nuclear data sets, with the latter dated using fossil calibration points. We also inferred the demographic history of Scriptus and Sylvaticus using coalescent-based methods. To obtain an overview of the origins and ancestral colonisation routes of ancestral bushbuck sequences across geographic space, we conducted discrete Bayesian phylogeographic and statistical dispersal-vicariance analyses on our nuclear DNA data set.

RESULTS

Both nuclear DNA and mtDNA support previous findings of two genetically divergent Sylvaticus and Scriptus lineages. The three mtDNA loci confirmed 15 of the previously defined haplogroups, including those with convergent phenotypes. However, the nuclear tree showed less phylogenetic resolution at the more derived parts of the genealogy, possibly due to incomplete lineage sorting of the slower evolving nuclear genome. The only exception to this was the montane Menelik's bushbuck (Sylvaticus) of the Ethiopian highlands, which formed a monophyletic group at three of four nuclear DNA loci. We dated the coalescence of the two lineages to a common ancestor ∼2.54 million years ago. Both marker sets revealed similar demographic histories of constant population size over time. We show that the bushbuck likely originated in East Africa, with Scriptus dispersing to colonise suitable habitats west of the African Rift and Sylvaticus radiating from east of the Rift into southern Africa via a series of mainly vicariance events.

DISCUSSION

Despite lower levels of genetic structure at nuclear loci, we confirmed the independent evolution of the Menelik's bushbuck relative to the phenotypically similar montane bushbuck in East Africa, adding further weight to previous suggestions of convergent evolution within the bushbuck complex. Perhaps the most surprising result of our analysis was that both Scriptus and Sylvaticus populations remained relatively constant throughout the Pleistocene, which is remarkable given that this was a period of major climatic and tectonic change in Africa, and responsible for driving the evolution of much of the continent's extant large mammalian diversity.

Highly polymorphic mitochondrial DNA and deceiving haplotypic differentiation: implications for assessing population genetic differentiation and connectivity

Background

Hyperdiverse mtDNA with more than 5% of variable synonymous nucleotide sites can lead to erroneous interpretations of population genetic differentiation patterns and parameters (φ_ST, D_EST). We illustrate this by using hyperdiverse mtDNA markers to infer population genetic differentiation and connectivity in Melarhaphe neritoides, a NE Atlantic (NEA) gastropod with a high dispersal potential. We also provide a recent literature example of how mtDNA hyperdiversity may have misguided the interpretation of genetic connectivity in the crab Opecarcinus hypostegus.

Results

mtDNA variation surveyed throughout the NEA showed that nearly all M. neritoides specimens had haplotypes private to populations, suggesting at first glance a lack of gene flow and thus a strong population genetic differentiation. Yet, the bush-like haplotype network, though visually misleading, showed no signs of phylogeographic or other haplotype structuring. Coalescent-based gene flow estimates were high throughout the NEA, irrespective of whether or not mtDNA hyperdiversity was reduced by removing hypervariable sites.

Conclusions

Melarhaphe neritoides seems to be panmictic over the entire NEA, which is consistent with its long-lived pelagic larval stage. With hyperdiverse mtDNA, the apparent lack of shared haplotypes among populations does not necessarily reflect a lack of gene flow and/or population genetic differentiation by fixation of alternative haplotypes (D_EST ≈ 1 does not a fortiori imply φ_ST ≈ 1), but may be due to (1) a too low sampling effort to detect shared haplotypes and/or (2) a very high mutation rate that may conceal the signal of gene flow. Hyperdiverse mtDNA can be used to assess connectivity by coalescent-based methods. Yet, the combined use of φ_ST and D_EST can provide a reasonable inference of connectivity patterns from hyperdiverse mtDNA, too.

Pleistocene-dated biogeographic barriers drove divergence within the Australo-Papuan region in a sex-specific manner: an example in a widespread Australian songbird

Understanding how environmental change has shaped species evolution can inform predictions of how future climate change might continue to do so. Research of widespread biological systems spanning multiple climates that have been subject to environmental change can yield generalizable inferences about the neutral and adaptive processes driving lineage divergence during periods of environmental change. We contribute to the growing body of multi-locus phylogeographic studies investigating the effect of Pleistocene climate change on species evolution by focusing on a widespread Australo-Papuan songbird with several mitochondrial lineages that diverged during the Pleistocene, the grey shrike-thrush (Colluricincla harmonica). We employed multi-locus phylogenetic, population genetic and coalescent analyses to (1) assess whether nuclear genetic diversity suggests a history congruent with that based on phenotypically defined subspecies ranges, mitochondrial clade boundaries and putative biogeographical barriers, (2) estimate genetic diversity within and genetic differentiation and gene flow among regional populations and (3) estimate population divergence times. The five currently recognized subspecies of grey shrike-thrush are genetically differentiated in nuclear and mitochondrial genomes, but connected by low levels of gene flow. Divergences among these populations are concordant with recognized historical biogeographical barriers and date to the Pleistocene. Discordance in the order of population divergence events based on mitochondrial and nuclear genomes suggests a history of sex-biased gene flow and/or mitochondrial introgression at secondary contacts. This study demonstrates that climate change can impact sexes with different dispersal biology in different ways. Incongruence between population and mitochondrial trees calls for a genome-wide investigation into dispersal, mitochondrial introgression and mitonuclear evolution.

Tracking Host Trees: The Phylogeography of Endemic Psittacanthus sonorae (Loranthaceae) Mistletoe in the Sonoran Desert

The host dependence of mistletoes suggests that they track the distributions of their hosts. However, the factors that determine the geographic distribution of mistletoes are not well understood. In this study, the phylogeography of Psittacanthus sonorae was reconstructed by sequencing one nuclear (ITS) and two plastid (trnL-F and atpB-rbcL) regions of 148 plants from populations separated by the Sea of Cortez. Divergence time and gene flow were estimated to gain insight into the historical demography and geographic structuring of genetic variation. We also described and mapped the spatial distribution of suitable habitat occupied by P. sonorae and its most common host Bursera microphylla in the Sonoran Desert, along with their responses to Quaternary climate fluctuations using environmental data and ecological niche modeling (ENM). We detected environmental and genetic differentiation between the peninsular and continental P. sonorae populations. Population divergence occurred during the Pleistocene, around the time of the Last Glacial Maximum. No signals of population growth were detected, with net gene flow moving from the continent to the peninsula. ENM models indicate decoupled responses by the mistletoe and its main host to past climate changes. For the Last Interglacial to the present, most models produce only partial areas of overlap on both the peninsula and the continent. Our results support a scenario of Late-Pleistocene isolation and divergence with asymmetrical gene flow between peninsular and continental P. sonorae populations. Continental populations migrated to the peninsula and the spatial isolation probably produced genetic differentiation under different environmental conditions.