Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts

Aspects of climate change prediction relevant to crop productivity

Projected changes in surface climate are reviewed at a range of temporal scales, with an emphasis on tropical northern Africa--a region considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Noting the key aspects of 'weather' affecting crop yield, we then consider relevant and projected change using output from a range of state of the art global climate models (GCMs), and for different future emission scenarios. The outputs from the models reveal significant inter-model variation in the change expected by the end of the twenty-first century for even the lowest IPCC emission scenario. We provide a set of recommendations on future model diagnostics, configurations and ease of use to close further the gap between GCMs and smaller-scale crop models. This has the potential to empower countries to make their own assessments of vulnerability to climate change induced periods of food scarcity.

Crop responses to climatic variation

The yield and quality of food crops is central to the well being of humans and is directly affected by climate and weather. Initial studies of climate change on crops focussed on effects of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) level and/or global mean temperature and/or rainfall and nutrition on crop production. However, crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions, exhibit threshold responses and are subject to combinations of stress factors that affect their growth, development and yield. Thus, climate variability and changes in the frequency of extreme events are important for yield, its stability and quality. In this context, threshold temperatures for crop processes are found not to differ greatly for different crops and are important to define for the major food crops, to assist climate modellers predict the occurrence of crop critical temperatures and their temporal resolution. This paper demonstrates the impacts of climate variability for crop production in a number of crops. Increasing temperature and precipitation variability increases the risks to yield, as shown via computer simulation and experimental studies. The issue of food quality has not been given sufficient importance when assessing the impact of climate change for food and this is addressed. Using simulation models of wheat, the concentration of grain protein is shown to respond to changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation events. The paper concludes with discussion of adaptation possibilities for crops in response to drought and argues that characters that enable better exploration of the soil and slower leaf canopy expansion could lead to crop higher transpiration efficiency.

Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: implications of global warming

Insect outbreaks are expected to increase in frequency and intensity with projected changes in global climate through direct effects of climate change on insect populations and through disruption of community interactions. Although there is much concern about mean changes in global climate, the impact of climatic variability itself on species interactions has been little explored. Here, we compare caterpillar-parasitoid interactions across a broad gradient of climatic variability and find that the combined data in 15 geographically dispersed databases show a decrease in levels of parasitism as climatic variability increases. The dominant contribution to this pattern by relatively specialized parasitoid wasps suggests that climatic variability impairs the ability of parasitoids to track host populations. Given the important role of parasitoids in regulating insect herbivore populations in natural and managed systems, we predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of herbivore outbreaks through a disruption of enemy-herbivore dynamics as climates become more variable.

Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change

We find that extreme temperature and precipitation events are likely to respond substantially to anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse forcing and that fine-scale climate system modifiers are likely to play a critical role in the net response. At present, such events impact a wide variety of natural and human systems, and future changes in their frequency and/or magnitude could have dramatic ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. Our results indicate that fine-scale snow albedo effects influence the response of both hot and cold events and that peak increases in extreme hot events are amplified by surface moisture feedbacks. Likewise, we find that extreme precipitation is enhanced on the lee side of rain shadows and over coastal areas dominated by convective precipitation. We project substantial, spatially heterogeneous increases in both hot and wet events over the contiguous United States by the end of the next century, suggesting that consideration of fine-scale processes is critical for accurate assessment of local- and regional-scale vulnerability to climate change.

Impact of control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics on the estimated associations of temperature and daily mortality

We assessed the influence of control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics on associations between apparent temperature (AT) and daily mortality in Mexico City and Monterrey. Poisson regressions were fit to mortality among all ages, children (ages 0-14 years) and the elderly (ages >or=65 years). Predictors included mean daily AT, season, day of week and public holidays for the base model. Respiratory epidemics and air pollution (particulate matter <10 microm in aerodynamic diameter and O3) were added singly and then jointly for a fully adjusted model. Percent changes in mortality were calculated for days of relatively extreme temperatures [cold (10-11 degrees C) for both cities and heat (35-36 degrees C) for Monterrey], compared to days at the overall mean temperature in each city (15 degrees C in Mexico City, 25 degrees C in Monterrey). In Mexico City, total mortality increased 12.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 10.5%, 14.5%] on cold days (fully adjusted). Among children, the adjusted association was similar [10.9% (95% CI: 5.4%, 16.7%)], but without control for pollution and epidemics, was nearly twice as large [19.7% (95% CI: 13.9%, 25.9)]. In Monterrey, the fully adjusted heat effect for all deaths was 18.7% (95% CI: 11.7%, 26.1%), a third lower than the unadjusted estimate; the heat effect was lower among children [5.5% (95% CI: -10.1%, 23.8%)]. Cold had a similar effect on all-age mortality as in Mexico City [11.7% (95% CI: 3.7%, 20.3%)]. Responses of the elderly differed little from all-ages responses in both cities. Associations between weather and health persisted even with control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics in two Mexican cities, but risk assessments and climate change adaptation programs are best informed by analyses that account for these potential confounders.

Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought

Future drought is projected to occur under warmer temperature conditions as climate change progresses, referred to here as global-change-type drought, yet quantitative assessments of the triggers and potential extent of drought-induced vegetation die-off remain pivotal uncertainties in assessing climate-change impacts. Of particular concern is regional-scale mortality of overstory trees, which rapidly alters ecosystem type, associated ecosystem properties, and land surface conditions for decades. Here, we quantify regional-scale vegetation die-off across southwestern North American woodlands in 2002-2003 in response to drought and associated bark beetle infestations. At an intensively studied site within the region, we quantified that after 15 months of depleted soil water content, >90% of the dominant, overstory tree species (Pinus edulis, a piñon) died. The die-off was reflected in changes in a remotely sensed index of vegetation greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), not only at the intensively studied site but also across the region, extending over 12,000 km2 or more; aerial and field surveys confirmed the general extent of the die-off. Notably, the recent drought was warmer than the previous subcontinental drought of the 1950s. The limited, available observations suggest that die-off from the recent drought was more extensive than that from the previous drought, extending into wetter sites within the tree species' distribution. Our results quantify a trigger leading to rapid, drought-induced die-off of overstory woody plants at subcontinental scale and highlight the potential for such die-off to be more severe and extensive for future global-change-type drought under warmer conditions.

Insurance in a climate of change

Catastrophe insurance provides peace of mind and financial security. Climate change can have adverse impacts on insurance affordability and availability, potentially slowing the growth of the industry and shifting more of the burden to governments and individuals. Most forms of insurance are vulnerable, including property, liability, health, and life. It is incumbent on insurers, their regulators, and the policy community to develop a better grasp of the physical and business risks. Insurers are well positioned to participate in public-private initiatives to monitor loss trends, improve catastrophe modeling, address the causes of climate change, and prepare for and adapt to the impacts.

Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data

The Arctic has undergone dramatic change during the past decade. The observed changes include atmospheric sea-level pressure, wind fields, sea-ice drift, ice cover, length of melt season, change in precipitation patterns, change in hydrology and change in ocean currents and watermass distribution. It is likely that these primary changes have altered the carbon cycle and biological systems, but the difficulty of observing these together with sporadic, incomplete time series makes it difficult to evaluate what the changes have been. Because contaminants enter global systems and transport through air and water, the changes listed above will clearly alter contaminant pathways. Here, we review what is known about recent changes using the Arctic Oscillation as a proxy to help us understand the forms under which global change will be manifest in the Arctic. For Pb, Cd and Zn, the Arctic is likely to become a more effective trap because precipitation is likely to increase. In the case of Cd, the natural cycle in the ocean appears to have a much greater potential to alter exposure than do human releases of this metal. Mercury has an especially complex cycle in the Arctic including a unique scavenging process (mercury depletion events), biomagnifying foodwebs, and chemical transformations such as methylation. The observation that mercury seems to be increasing in a number of aquatic species whereas atmospheric gaseous mercury shows little sign of change suggests that factors related to change in the physical system (ice cover, permafrost degradation, organic carbon cycling) may be more important than human activities. Organochlorine contaminants offer a surprising array of possibilities for changed pathways. To change in precipitation patterns can be added change in ice cover (air-water exchange), change in food webs either from the top down or from the bottom up (biomagnification), change in the organic carbon cycle and change in diets. Perhaps the most interesting possibility, presently difficult to predict, is combination of immune suppression together with expanding ranges of disease vectors. Finally, biotransport through migratory species is exceptionally vulnerable to changes in migration strength or in migration pathway-in the Arctic, change in the distribution of ice and temperature may already have caused such changes. Hydrocarbons, which tend to impact surfaces, will be mostly affected by change in the ice climate (distribution and drift tracks). Perhaps the most dramatic changes will occur because our view of the Arctic Ocean will change as it becomes more amenable to transport, tourism and mineral exploration on the shelves. Radionuclides have tended not to produce a radiological problem in the Arctic; nevertheless one pathway, the ice, remains a risk because it can accrue, concentrate and transport radio-contaminated sediments. This pathway is sensitive to where ice is produced, what the transport pathways of ice are, and where ice is finally melted-all strong candidates for change during the coming century. The changes that have already occurred in the Arctic and those that are projected to occur have an effect on contaminant time series including direct measurements (air, water, biota) or proxies (sediment cores, ice cores, archive material). Although these 'system' changes can alter the flux and concentrations at given sites in a number of obvious ways, they have been all but ignored in the interpretation of such time series. To understand properly what trends mean, especially in complex 'recorders' such as seals, walrus and polar bears, demands a more thorough approach to time series by collecting data in a number of media coherently. Presently, a major reservoir for contaminants and the one most directly connected to biological uptake in species at greatest risk-the ocean-practically lacks such time series.

Heat stroke: a comprehensive review

Heat stroke (HS) is a serious and potentially life-threatening condition defined as a core body temperature >40.6 degrees C. Two forms of HS are recognized, classic heat stroke, usually occurring in very young or elderly persons, and exertional heat stroke, more common in physically active individuals. An elevated body temperature and neurologic dysfunction are necessary but not sufficient to diagnose HS. Associated clinical manifestations such as extreme fatigue; hot dry skin or heavy perspiration; nausea; vomiting; diarrhea; disorientation to person, place, or time; dizziness; uncoordinated movements; and reddened face are frequently observed. Potential complications related to severe HS are acute renal failure, disseminated intravascular coagulation, rhabdomyolysis, acute respiratory distress syndrome, acid-base disorders, and electrolyte disturbances. Long-term neurologic sequelae (varying degrees of irreversible brain injury) occur in approximately 20% of patients. The prognosis is optimal when HS is diagnosed early and management with cooling measures and fluid resuscitation and electrolyte replacement begins promptly. The prognosis is poorest when treatment is delayed >2 hours.

Avian reproductive failure in response to an extreme climatic event

Recently, climate change research has emphasized the potential increase in the frequency and severity of climatic extremes. We compared the reproductive effort and output among four species of passerine birds in coastal southern California, USA, a semi-arid region, during a normal precipitation year (2001) and the driest year in a 150-year climate record (2002). Both reproductive effort and output differed dramatically between years. Mean reproductive output among the four species was 2.37 fledglings/pair in 2001 and 88.4% of all pairs observed attempted at least one nest. The birds attempted a mean of 1.44 nests per pair and were successful in 47.7% of those attempts. In 2002, only 6.7% of the pairs even attempted a nest and only 1.8% were successful, for a total output of 0.07 fledglings per pair. The abundance of suitable arthropod prey items in the environment was also much lower in 2002, suggesting that low food availability was the proximal cause of the reproductive failure. The data for one of these species, the rufous-crowned sparrow (Aimophila ruficeps), were combined with reproductive and rainfall data from a previous 3-year study (1997-1999) in the same sites. The combined data sets suggest that the response of reproduction to rainfall variation is linear, and that the low end of the precipitation range brings the population near reproductive failure. Any change in climate that would increase the frequency of extreme dry conditions would likely endanger populations of these species.

Improved Quality Assurance for Historical Hourly Temperature and Humidity: Development and Application to Environmental Analysis

Historical hourly surface synoptic (airways) meteorological reports from around the United States have been digitized as part of the NOAA Climate Database Modernization Program. An important component is improvement of quality assurance procedures for hourly meteorological data. This paper presents the development and testing of two components of a new complex framework, as well as their application toward construction, for the first time, of a 75-yr time series of apparent temperature. A pilot study indicated that a majority of flags thrown from an existing algorithm represent single-hour blips, rather than steps, and that frontal passages were being flagged incorrectly. Therefore, a model focused on flagging blips is developed; two blip-magnitude measures are compared that define a blip as a departure from temporally neighboring observations. Switches of dewpoint with dewpoint depression have also been noted among observer/digitizer errors, and so an additional check was developed to screen for these cases. This check is based on a relationship between dewpoint depression and diurnal temperature range. Tests using artificial replication of common errors indicate that the new blip model outperforms traditional step models considerably, and the new model flags an order-of-magnitude fewer frontal passages. Operational use of this check suggests type-I and type-II error rates are similar in magnitude and are approximately 5%. More than two-fifths of known dewpoint depression switch errors are caught. However, poor performance with systematic errors suggests that using the depression-range check at a coarser temporal scale than hour to hour may be more fruitful.

Effect of excessive environmental heat on core temperature in critically ill patients. An observational study during the 2003 European heat wave

BACKGROUND

The primary goal of this study was to investigate the relation between the core temperature of critically ill patients and hot ambient temperatures during a heat wave. The second goal was to evaluate the impact of such a heat wave on the number of microbiological tests ordered.

METHODS

During a heat wave, from August 3 to 22, 2003, we conducted an observational study in the surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of a French hospital that had no air-conditioning at the time. The core temperature of 18 critically ill patients and 36 health-care workers was measured with a non-contact, infrared tympanic membrane thermometer. The association between the core body temperature in infected and non-infected critically ill patients and the staff members, and the ambient temperature in the ICU was analysed using linear regression. The number of microbiological tests ordered was also recorded and compared with the same period in the previous year.

RESULTS

The equation of the regression line for infected critically ill patients was: core temperature=33.5+0.16 x ambient temperature (R(2)=0.53; P<0.0001). The regression line was steeper than that for the non-infected patients (0.077; P<0.0001). The slopes of the regression lines for non-infected and control patients were similar (P=0.20). More blood cultures were carried out during the heat wave than at the same period during the year 2002 (4.80 blood cultures per 1000 patient-days vs 2.47 per 1000 patient-days; P=0.0006).

CONCLUSION

During a sustained high ambient temperature, hyperthermia can occur in critically ill infected patients and to a lesser extent in non-infected patients and health-care workers. The number of blood cultures requested rises substantially, leading to increased costs. Installation of air-conditioning is therefore recommended.

The role of climate variability in the inter-annual variation of terrestrial net primary production (NPP)

Eleven years data set of global net primary production (NPP) and long-term climatic and land use data were used to explore the patterns of inter-annual variability of terrestrial NPP in relation to potential causal factors. Global anomalies in temperature, precipitation and cloud cover were found to significantly contribute in different ways and magnitudes to the variability of NPP of global ecosystems particularly forests and grasslands. El Niño/La Niña events represented an important factor affecting forests, woodlands and grasslands while deforestation was found to largely contribute to the NPP variability of tropical forests. Regionally, NPP variability is related to variation of precipitation in the tropics but is related to both variation and annual mean of temperature and cloud cover in the mid-northern latitudes. We hypothesized that the increase in variability of potential causal factor(s) will provoke more declines of NPP in the tropics but will yield more pulses or at least maintain a mean NPP in the mid-northern latitudes.

Soil water balance and ecosystem response to climate change

Some essential features of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle and ecosystem response are singled out by confronting empirical observations of the soil water balance of different ecosystems with the results of a stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics. The simplified framework analytically describes how hydroclimatic variability (especially the frequency and amount of rainfall events) concurs with soil and plant characteristics in producing the soil moisture dynamics that in turn impact vegetation conditions. The results of the model extend and help interpret the classical curve of Budyko, which relates evapotranspiration losses to a dryness index, describing the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep infiltration. They also provide a general classification of soil water balance of the world ecosystems based on two governing dimensionless groups summarizing the climate, soil, and vegetation conditions. The subsequent analysis of the links among soil moisture dynamics, plant water stress, and carbon assimilation offers an interpretation of recent manipulative field experiments on ecosystem response to shifts in the rainfall regime, showing that plant carbon assimilation crucially depends not only on the total rainfall during the growing season but also on the intermittency and magnitude of the rainfall events.

Municipal heat wave response plans

Approximately 400 people die from extreme heat each year in the United States, and the risk of heat waves may increase as a result of global climate change. Despite the risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality, many cities lack written heat response plans. In a review of plans from 18 cities at risk for heat-related mortality, we found that many cities had inadequate or no heat response plans. This is an important area for further investigation and government attention.

Predicting the distribution of ground beetle species (Coleoptera, Carabidae) in Britain using land cover variables

Predictions of plant and animal species distributions are important for conservation and for the assessment of large-scale ecosystem change. Land cover data are becoming more widely available for use in land management and conservation. We use a logistic regression modelling approach to investigate the utility of these data for modelling. The relationship between the distribution of 137 British ground beetles species and land cover was investigated using data from 1,687 10 km national grid squares. Land cover data were simplified using ordination and the axes used as predictors in logistic regression with presence absence data for individual beetle species as response variables. Significant regression models were generated for all species with first and second axis scores. The amounts of variation explained by models were generally low, but predictions derived from models generally matched the known distributions of the species in Britain. Species with coastal preferences were poorly modelled and predicted to occur throughout lowland Britain whilst a number of species occurring in southern Britain were predicted to occur into Scotland. A validation exercise comparing model predictions with new data from a survey of 59 10 km(2) produced mixed results with the distribution of grassland species being better predicted than riverine species. Jack-knifing was used to assess the robustness of models for four species which differed in their apparent responses to the land cover variables. Methods for improving the predictive power of these models and their potential for use in assessing the impact of global climate change are discussed.

More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century

A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases, indicating that it will produce more severe heat waves in those regions in the future.

ADAPTATION TO TEMPERATE CLIMATES

Only model organisms live in a world of endless summer. Fitness at temperate latitudes reflects the ability of organisms in nature to exploit the favorable season, to mitigate the effects of the unfavorable season, and to make the timely switch from one life style to the other. Herein, we define fitness as Ry, the year-long cohort replacement rate across all four seasons, of the mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii, reared in its natural microhabitat in processor-controlled environment rooms. First, we exposed cohorts of W. smithii, from southern, midlatitude, and northern populations (30-50 degrees N) to southern and northern thermal years during which we factored out evolved differences in photoperiodic response. We found clear evidence of evolved differences in heat and cold tolerance among populations. Relative cold tolerance of northern populations became apparent when populations were stressed to the brink of extinction; relative heat tolerance of southern populations became apparent when the adverse effects of heat could accumulate over several generations. Second, we exposed southern, midlatitude, and northern populations to natural, midlatitude day lengths in a thermally benign midlatitude thermal year. We found that evolved differences in photoperiodic response (1) prevented the timely entry of southern populations into diapause resulting in a 74% decline in fitness, and (2) forced northern populations to endure a warm-season diapause resulting in an 88% decline in fitness. We argue that reciprocal transplants across latitudes in nature always confound the effects of the thermal and photic environment on fitness. Yet, to our knowledge, no one has previously held the thermal year constant while varying the photic year. This distinction is crucial in evaluating the potential impact of climate change. Because global warming in the Northern Hemisphere is proceeding faster at northern than at southern latitudes and because this change represents an amelioration of the thermal environment and a concomitant increase in the duration of the growing season, we conclude that there should be more rapid evolution of photoperiodic response than of thermal tolerance as a consequence of global warming among northern, temperate ectotherms.

Convergence across biomes to a common rain-use efficiency

Water availability limits plant growth and production in almost all terrestrial ecosystems. However, biomes differ substantially in sensitivity of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) to between-year variation in precipitation. Average rain-use efficiency (RUE; ANPP/precipitation) also varies between biomes, supposedly because of differences in vegetation structure and/or biogeochemical constraints. Here we show that RUE decreases across biomes as mean annual precipitation increases. However, during the driest years at each site, there is convergence to a common maximum RUE (RUE(max)) that is typical of arid ecosystems. RUE(max) was also identified by experimentally altering the degree of limitation by water and other resources. Thus, in years when water is most limiting, deserts, grasslands and forests all exhibit the same rate of biomass production per unit rainfall, despite differences in physiognomy and site-level RUE. Global climate models predict increased between-year variability in precipitation, more frequent extreme drought events, and changes in temperature. Forecasts of future ecosystem behaviour should take into account this convergent feature of terrestrial biomes.

Biochemical indicators of stress and metabolism: applications for marine ecological studies

Studies investigating the effects of temperature, food availability, or other physical factors on the physiology of marine animals have led to the development of biochemical indicators of growth rate, metabolic condition, and physiological stress. Measurements of metabolic enzyme activity and RNA/DNA have been especially valuable as indicators of condition in studies of marine invertebrates and fishes, groups for which accurate determination of field metabolic rates is difficult. Properly calibrated and applied, biochemical indicators have been successfully used in studies of rocky intertidal ecology, where two decades of experimentation have generated rigorous, testable models for determining the relative influences of biotic and abiotic factors on species distribution, abundance, and interaction. Biochemical indicators of condition and metabolic activity (metabolic enzymes, RNA/DNA) have been used to test nutrient-productivity models by demonstrating tight linkages between nearshore oceanographic processes (such as upwelling) and benthic rocky intertidal ecosystems. Indices of condition and heat stress (heat shock proteins, or Hsps) have begun to be used to test environmental stress models by comparing condition, activity, and Hsp expression of key rocky intertidal predator and prey species. Using biochemical indicators of condition and stress in natural systems holds great promise for understanding mechanisms by which organisms respond to rapid environmental change.

Precipitation pulse size effects on Sonoran Desert soil microbial crusts

Deserts are characterized by low productivity and substantial unvegetated space, which is often covered by soil microbial crust communities. Microbial crusts are important for nitrogen fixation, soil stabilization and water infiltration, but their role in ecosystem production is not well understood. This study addresses the following questions: what are the CO2 exchange responses of crusts to pulses of water, does the contribution of crusts to ecosystem flux differ from the soil respiratory flux, and is this contribution pulse size dependent? Following water application to crusts and soils, CO2 exchange was measured and respiration was partitioned through mixing model analysis of Keeling plots across treatments. Following small precipitation pulse sizes, crusts contributed 80% of soil-level CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere. However, following a large pulse event, roots and soil microbes contributed nearly 100% of the soil-level flux. Rainfall events in southern Arizona are dominated by small pulse sizes, suggesting that crusts may frequently contribute to ecosystem production. Carbon cycle studies of arid land systems should consider crusts as important contributors because of their dynamic responses to different pulse sizes as compared to the remaining ecosystem components.

The effect of mean and variance in resource supply on survival of annuals from Mediterranean and desert environments

Resource availability is often characterized by mean annual amounts, while ignoring the spatial variation within habitats and the temporal variation within a year. Yet, temporal and spatial variation may be especially important for identifying the source of stress in low productivity environments such as deserts where resources are often pulsed and resource renewal events are separated by long periods of low resource availability. Therefore, the degree of stress will be determined in part by the length of time between recharge events. Here, we investigated the effect of timing and total amount of water application on two congeneric pairs, each with a population from a low (desert) and a high (Mediterranean) productivity habitat. As expected, highest survival and greatest growth were found at low or intermediate recharge intervals, and the magnitude of response to increases in total seasonal amounts was greater for Mediterranean species than desert species. The species that had greater survival switched in the hierarchy under high total water depending on interval length. These results demonstrate that temporal variation in resource availability can be as important as annual total amounts for plant performance and that response to temporal dynamics can vary between species. This has implications for community-level processes, as competitive hierarchies may switch based on resource dynamics rather than only total availability.

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

Productivity responses to altered rainfall patterns in a C4-dominated grassland

Rainfall variability is a key driver of ecosystem structure and function in grasslands worldwide. Changes in rainfall patterns predicted by global climate models for the central United States are expected to cause lower and increasingly variable soil water availability, which may impact net primary production and plant species composition in native Great Plains grasslands. We experimentally altered the timing and quantity of growing season rainfall inputs by lengthening inter-rainfall dry intervals by 50%, reducing rainfall quantities by 30%, or both, compared to the ambient rainfall regime in a native tallgrass prairie ecosystem in northeastern Kansas. Over three growing seasons, increased rainfall variability caused by altered rainfall timing with no change in total rainfall quantity led to lower and more variable soil water content (0-30 cm depth), an approximately 10% reduction in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), increased root to shoot ratios, and greater canopy photon flux density at 30 cm above the soil surface. Lower total ANPP primarily resulted from reduced growth, biomass and flowering of subdominant warm-season C4 grasses while productivity of the dominant C4 grass Andropogon gerardii was relatively unresponsive. In general, vegetation responses to increased soil water content variability were at least equal to those caused by imposing a 30% reduction in rainfall quantity without altering the timing of rainfall inputs. Reduced ANPP most likely resulted from direct effects of soil moisture deficits on root activity, plant water status, and photosynthesis. Altered rainfall regimes are likely to be an important element of climate change scenarios in this grassland, and the nature of interactions with other climate change elements remains a significant challenge for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change.

Extreme events as shaping physiology, ecology, and evolution of plants: toward a unified definition and evaluation of their consequences

Here we consider how extreme events, particularly climatic and biotic, affect the physiology, development, ecology and evolution of organisms, focusing on plants. The marked effects on organisms are of increasing interest for ecological prediction, given the natural and anthropogenic changes in spectra of extreme events being induced by global change. Yet there is currently a paucity of knowledge or even a common world-view of how extreme events shape individuals, communities and ecosystems. We propose that extreme events need be defined in terms of organismal responses of acclimation and of de-acclimation or hysteresis. From this definition we proceed to develop a number of hypotheses, including that fitness effects of extreme events occur primarily during recovery. We review evidence that, on the evolutionary time scale, selection is virtually absent except during extreme events; these drive strong directional selection, even to trait fixation and speciation. We describe a number of new tools, both conceptual and technological, that are now at hand or that merit rapid development. Contents I. Introduction 22 II. Moving to an organismally based definition of extreme events 22 III. Features to discern in extreme events 26 IV. Additional challenges in the study of extreme events 27 V. Evolutionary dimensions 29 VI. The mandate for new conceptual tools for ecological and evolutionary prediction 34 VII. Tools in hand, and tools needed, to study extreme events 35 VIII. Conclusions 37 Acknowledgements 37 References 38.

Dominant cold desert plants do not partition warm season precipitation by event size

We conducted experiments to examine the quantitative relationships between rainfall event size and rainwater uptake and use by four common native plant species of the Colorado Plateau, including two perennial grasses, Hilaria jamesii (C(4)) and Oryzopsis hymenoides (C(3)), and two shrubs, Ceratoides lanata (C(3)), and Gutierrezia sarothrae (C(3)). Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that grasses use small rainfall events more efficiently than shrubs and lose this advantage when events are large. Rainfall events between 2 and 20 mm were simulated in spring and summer by applying pulses of deuterium-labeled irrigation water. Afterwards, pulse water fractions in stems and the rates of leaf gas exchange were monitored for 9 days. Cumulative pulse water uptake over this interval (estimated by integrating the product of pulse fraction in stem water and daytime transpiration rate over time) was approximately linearly related to the amount of pulse water added to the ground in all four species. Across species, consistently more pulse water was taken up in summer than in spring. Relative to their leaf areas, the two grass species took up more pulse water than the two shrub species, across all event sizes and in both seasons, thus refuting the initial hypothesis. In spring, pulse water uptake did not significantly increase photosynthetic rates and in summer, pulse water uptake had similar, but relatively small effects on the photosynthetic rates of the three C(3) plants, and a larger effect on the C(4) plant H. jamesii. Based on these data, we introduce an alternative hypothesis for the responses of plant functional types to rainfall events of different sizes, building on cost-benefit considerations for active physiological responses to sudden, unpredictable changes in water availability.