Populating an economic model with health state utility values: moving toward better practice

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a National Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Program in Ireland

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of introducing a publicly funded pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program in Ireland.

METHODS

We constructed a state-transition Markov model. This was a cross-sectional population model that tracked all HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ireland over their lifetime. Access to a publicly funded PrEP program (medications + frequent monitoring) in high-risk MSM was compared with no PrEP. The primary outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

In the base case, introducing a PrEP program was considered cost saving and provided significant health benefits to the population. Univariate sensitivity analysis demonstrated that PrEP efficacy and HIV incidence had the greatest impact on cost-effectiveness. Including an increase in sexually transmitted infections had a negligible impact on the results. Efficacy was a significant driver in the model. PrEP was cost saving at all efficacy values above 60%, and at the lowest reported efficacy in MSM (44% in the iPrEX trial), the ICER was €4711/QALY (highly cost-effective). Event-based dosing (administration during high-risk periods only) was associated with additional cost savings. We estimated that 1705 individuals (95% CI: 617-3452) would join the program in year 1. The incremental budget impact was €1.5m (95% CI: €0.5m to €3m) in the first year and €5.4m over 5 years (95% CI: €1.8m to €11.5m), with 173 cases of HIV averted over 5 years.

CONCLUSION

We found that the introduction of a PrEP program would be considered cost saving in the first cost-effectiveness analysis of its kind in Ireland.

Modelling of hypothetical SARS-CoV-2 point of care tests for routine testing in residential care homes: rapid cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which at the time of writing (January 2021) was responsible for more than 2.25 million deaths worldwide and over 100,000 deaths in the UK. SARS-CoV-2 appears to be highly transmissible and could rapidly spread in residential care homes.

OBJECTIVE

The work undertaken aimed to estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of viral detection point-of-care tests for detecting SARS-CoV-2 compared with laboratory-based tests in the setting of a hypothetical care home facility for elderly residents.

PERSPECTIVE/SETTING

The perspective was that of the NHS in 2020. The setting was a hypothetical care home facility for elderly residents. Care homes with en suite rooms and with shared facilities were modelled separately.

METHODS

A discrete event simulation model was constructed to model individual residents and simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 once it had entered the residential care facility. The numbers of COVID-19-related deaths and critical cases were recorded in addition to the number of days spent in isolation. Thirteen strategies involving different hypothetical SARS-CoV-2 tests were modelled. Recently published desirable and acceptable target product profiles for SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests and for hospital-based SARS-CoV-2 tests were modelled. Scenario analyses modelled early release from isolation based on receipt of a negative SARS-CoV-2 test result and the impact of vaccination. Incremental analyses were undertaken using both incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and net monetary benefits.

RESULTS

Cost-effectiveness results depended on the proportion of residential care facilities penetrated by SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests with desirable target product profiles appear to have high net monetary benefit values. In contrast, SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests with acceptable target product profiles had low net monetary benefit values because of unnecessary isolations. The benefit of allowing early release from isolation depended on whether or not the facility had en suite rooms. The greater the assumed efficacy of vaccination, the lower the net monetary benefit values associated with SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests, when assuming that a vaccine lowers the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.

LIMITATIONS

There is considerable uncertainty in the values for key parameters within the model, although calibration was undertaken in an attempt to mitigate this. Some degree of Monte Carlo sampling error persists because of the timelines of the project. The example care home simulated will also not match those of decision-makers deciding on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of introducing SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests. Given these limitations, the results should be taken as indicative rather than definitive, particularly the cost-effectiveness results when the relative cost per SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care test is uncertain.

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests have considerable potential for benefit for use in residential care facilities, but whether or not this materialises depends on the diagnostic accuracy and costs of forthcoming SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests.

FUTURE WORK

More accurate results would be obtained when there is more certainty on the diagnostic accuracy of and the reduction in time to test result associated with SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests when used in the context of residential care facilities, the proportion of care home penetrated by SARS-CoV-2 and the levels of immunity once vaccination is administered. These parameters are currently uncertain.

FUNDING

This report was commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme as project number 132154. This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 39. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Smoking Cessation Interventions in the United Kingdom Accounting for Major Neuropsychiatric Adverse Events

OBJECTIVES

Smoking is a leading cause of death worldwide. Cessation aids include varenicline, bupropion, nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), and e-cigarettes at various doses (low, standard and high) and used alone or in combination with each other. Previous cost-effectiveness analyses have not fully accounted for adverse effects nor compared all cessation aids. The objective was to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of cessation aids in the United Kingdom.

METHODS

An established Markov cohort model was adapted to incorporate health outcomes and costs due to depression and self-harm associated with cessation aids, alongside other health events. Relative efficacy in terms of abstinence and major adverse neuropsychiatric events was informed by a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Base case results are reported for UK-licensed interventions only. Two sensitivity analyses are reported, one including unlicensed interventions and another comparing all cessation aids but removing the impact of depression and self-harm. The sensitivity of conclusions to model inputs was assessed by calculating the expected value of partial perfect information.

RESULTS

When limited to UK-licensed interventions, varenicline standard-dose and NRT standard-dose were most cost-effective. Including unlicensed interventions, e-cigarette low-dose appeared most cost-effective followed by varenicline standard-dose + bupropion standard-dose combined. When the impact of depression and self-harm was excluded, varenicline standard-dose + NRT standard-dose was most cost-effective, followed by varenicline low-dose + NRT standard-dose.

CONCLUSION

Although found to be most cost-effective, combined therapy is currently unlicensed in the United Kingdom and the safety of e-cigarettes remains uncertain. The value-of-information analysis suggested researchers should continue to investigate the long-term effectiveness and safety outcomes of e-cigarettes in studies with active comparators.

Cost-Effectiveness Modeling of Surgery Plus Adjuvant Endocrine Therapy Versus Primary Endocrine Therapy Alone in UK Women Aged 70 and Over With Early Breast Cancer

OBJECTIVES

Approximately 20% of UK women aged 70+ with early breast cancer receive primary endocrine therapy (PET) instead of surgery. PET reduces surgical morbidity but with some survival decrement. To complement and utilize a treatment dependent prognostic model, we investigated the cost-effectiveness of surgery plus adjuvant therapies versus PET for women with varying health and fitness, identifying subgroups for which each treatment is cost-effective.

METHODS

Survival outcomes from a statistical model, and published data on recurrence, were combined with data from a large, multicenter, prospective cohort study of over 3400 UK women aged 70+ with early breast cancer and median 52-month follow-up, to populate a probabilistic economic model. This model evaluated the cost-effectiveness of surgery plus adjuvant therapies relative to PET for 24 illustrative subgroups: Age {70, 80, 90} × Nodal status {FALSE (F), TRUE (T)} × Comorbidity score {0, 1, 2, 3+}.

RESULTS

For a 70-year-old with no lymph node involvement and no comorbidities (70, F, 0), surgery plus adjuvant therapies was cheaper and more effective than PET. For other subgroups, surgery plus adjuvant therapies was more effective but more expensive. Surgery plus adjuvant therapies was not cost-effective for 4 of the 24 subgroups: (90, F, 2), (90, F, 3), (90, T, 2), (90, T, 3).

CONCLUSION

From a UK perspective, surgery plus adjuvant therapies is clinically effective and cost-effective for most women aged 70+ with early breast cancer. Cost-effectiveness reduces with age and comorbidities, and for women over 90 with multiple comorbidities, there is little cost benefit and a negative impact on quality of life.

Testing strategies for Lynch syndrome in people with endometrial cancer: systematic reviews and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Lynch syndrome is an inherited genetic condition that is associated with an increased risk of certain cancers. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence has recommended that people with colorectal cancer are tested for Lynch syndrome. Routine testing for Lynch syndrome among people with endometrial cancer is not currently conducted.

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the evidence on the test accuracy of immunohistochemistry- and microsatellite instability-based strategies to detect Lynch syndrome among people who have endometrial cancer, and the clinical effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness of testing for Lynch syndrome among people who have been diagnosed with endometrial cancer.

DATA SOURCES

Searches were conducted in the following databases, from inception to August 2019 - MEDLINE ALL, EMBASE (both via Ovid), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (both via Wiley Online Library), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Health Technology Assessment Database (both via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Science Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (both via Web of Science), PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, EconPapers (Research Papers in Economics) and School of Health and Related Research Health Utilities Database. The references of included studies and relevant systematic reviews were also checked and experts on the team were consulted.

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies included people with endometrial cancer who were tested for Lynch syndrome using immunohistochemistry- and/or microsatellite instability-based testing [with or without mutL homologue 1 (MLH1) promoter hypermethylation testing], with Lynch syndrome diagnosis being established though germline testing of normal (non-tumour) tissue for constitutional mutations in mismatch repair. The risk of bias in studies was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool, the Consolidated Health Economic Reporting Standards and the Philips' checklist. Two reviewers independently conducted each stage of the review. A meta-analysis of test accuracy was not possible because of the number and heterogeneity of studies. A narrative summary of test accuracy results was provided, reporting test accuracy estimates and presenting forest plots. The economic model constituted a decision tree followed by Markov models for the impact of colorectal and endometrial surveillance, and aspirin prophylaxis with a lifetime time horizon.

RESULTS

The clinical effectiveness search identified 3308 studies; 38 studies of test accuracy were included. (No studies of clinical effectiveness of endometrial cancer surveillance met the inclusion criteria.) Four test accuracy studies compared microsatellite instability with immunohistochemistry. No clear difference in accuracy between immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability was observed. There was some evidence that specificity of immunohistochemistry could be improved with the addition of methylation testing. There was high concordance between immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability. The economic model indicated that all testing strategies, compared with no testing, were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Immunohistochemistry with MLH1 promoter hypermethylation testing was the most cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £9420 per quality-adjusted life-year. The second most cost-effective strategy was immunohistochemistry testing alone, but incremental analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio exceeding £130,000. Results were robust across all scenario analyses. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from £5690 to £20,740; only removing the benefits of colorectal cancer surveillance produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in excess of the £20,000 willingness-to-pay threshold. A sensitivity analysis identified the main cost drivers of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio as percentage of relatives accepting counselling and prevalence of Lynch syndrome in the population. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, a 0.93 probability that immunohistochemistry with MLH1 promoter hypermethylation testing is cost-effective, compared with no testing.

LIMITATIONS

The systematic review excluded grey literature, studies written in non-English languages and studies for which the reference standard could not be established. Studies were included when Lynch syndrome was diagnosed by genetic confirmation of constitutional variants in the four mismatch repair genes (i.e. MLH1, mutS homologue 2, mutS homologue 6 and postmeiotic segregation increased 2). Variants of uncertain significance were reported as per the studies. There were limitations in the economic model around uncertainty in the model parameters and a lack of modelling of the potential harms of gynaecological surveillance and specific pathway modelling of genetic testing for somatic mismatch repair mutations.

CONCLUSION

The economic model suggests that testing women with endometrial cancer for Lynch syndrome is cost-effective, but that results should be treated with caution because of uncertain model inputs.

FUTURE WORK

Randomised controlled trials could provide evidence on the effect of earlier intervention on outcomes and the balance of benefits and harms of gynaecological cancer surveillance. Follow-up of negative cases through disease registers could be used to determine false negative cases.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019147185.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 42. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Association between knee symptoms, change in knee symptoms over 6-9 years, and SF-6D health state utility among middle-aged Australians

OBJECTIVES

Health state utilities (HSUs) are an input metric for estimating quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) in cost-utility analyses. Currently, there is a paucity of data on association of knee symptoms with HSUs for middle-aged populations. We aimed to describe the association of knee symptoms and change in knee symptoms with SF-6D HSUs and described the distribution of HSUs against knee symptoms' severity.

METHODS

Participants (36-49-years) were selected from the third follow-up (completed 2019) of Australian Childhood Determinants of Adult Health study. SF-6D HSUs were generated from the participant-reported SF-12. Association between participant-reported WOMAC knee symptoms' severity, change in knee symptoms over 6-9 years, and HSUs were evaluated using linear regression models.

RESULTS

For the cross-sectional analysis, 1,567 participants were included; mean age 43.5 years, female 54%, BMI ± SD 27.18 ± 5.31 kg/m². Mean ± SD HSUs for normal, moderate, and severe WOMAC scores were 0.820 ± 0.120, 0.800 ± 0.120, and 0.740 ± 0.130, respectively. A significant association was observed between worsening knee symptoms and HSUs in univariable and multivariable analyses after adjustment (age and sex). HSU decrement for normal-to-severe total-WOMAC and WOMAC-pain was - 0.080 (95% CI - 0.100 to - 0.060, p < 0.01) and - 0.067 (- 0.085 to - 0.048, p < 0.01), exceeding the mean minimal clinically important difference (0.04). Increase in knee pain over 6-9 years was associated with a significant reduction in HSU.

CONCLUSION

In a middle-aged population-based sample, there was an independent negative association between worse knee symptoms and SF-6D HSUs. Our findings may be used by decision-makers to define more realistic and conservative baseline and ongoing HSU values when assessing QALY changes associated with osteoarthritis interventions.

Self-managed, computerised word finding therapy as an add-on to usual care for chronic aphasia post-stroke: An economic evaluation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the cost-effectiveness of self-managed computerised word finding therapy as an add-on to usual care for people with aphasia post-stroke.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness modelling over a life-time period, taking a UK National Health Service (NHS) and personal social service perspective.

SETTING

Based on the Big CACTUS randomised controlled trial, conducted in 21 UK NHS speech and language therapy departments.

PARTICIPANTS

Big CACTUS included 278 people with long-standing aphasia post-stroke.

INTERVENTIONS

Computerised word finding therapy plus usual care; usual care alone; usual care plus attention control.

MAIN MEASURES

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated, comparing the cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained for each intervention. Credible intervals (CrI) for costs and QALYs, and probabilities of cost-effectiveness, were obtained using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Subgroup and scenario analyses investigated cost-effectiveness in different subsets of the population, and the sensitivity of results to key model inputs.

RESULTS

Adding computerised word finding therapy to usual care had an ICER of £42,686 per QALY gained compared with usual care alone (incremental QALY gain: 0.02 per patient (95% CrI: -0.05 to 0.10); incremental costs: £732.73 per patient (95% CrI: £674.23 to £798.05)). ICERs for subgroups with mild or moderate word finding difficulties were £22,371 and £21,262 per QALY gained respectively.

CONCLUSION

Computerised word finding therapy represents a low cost add-on to usual care, but QALY gains and estimates of cost-effectiveness are uncertain. Computerised therapy is more likely to be cost-effective for people with mild or moderate, as opposed to severe, word finding difficulties.

Infant Hospitalizations and Fatalities Averted by the Maternal Pertussis Vaccination Program in England, 2012-2017: Post-implementation Economic Evaluation

In October 2012, a maternal pertussis vaccination program was implemented in England following an increased incidence and mortality in infants. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the program by comparing pertussis-related infant hospitalizations and deaths in 2012-2017 with nonvaccination scenarios. Despite considerable uncertainties, findings support the cost-effectiveness of the program.

Cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis of multiple frequency bioimpedance devices for fluid management in people with chronic kidney disease having dialysis

Background

Among people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) on dialysis, sub-optimal fluid management has been linked with hospitalisation, cardiovascular complications and death. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness using multiple-frequency bioimpedance guided fluid management versus standard fluid management based on clinical judgment.

Methods

A Markov model was developed to compare expected costs, outcomes and quality adjusted life years of the alternative management strategies. The relative effectiveness of the bioimpedance guided approach was informed by a systematic review of clinical trials, and focussed reviews were conducted to identify baseline event rates, costs and health state utility values for application in the model. The model was analysed probabilistically and a value of information (VOI) analysis was conducted to inform the value of conducting further research to reduce current uncertainties in the evidence base.

Results

For the base-case analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for bioimpedance guided fluid management versus standard management was £16,536 per QALY gained. There was a 59% chance of the ICER being below £20,000 per QALY. Form the VOI analysis, the theoretical upper bound on the value of further research was £53 million. The value of further research was highest for parameters relating to the relative effectiveness of bioimpedance guided management on final health outcomes.

Conclusions

Multiple frequency bioimpedance testing may offer a cost-effective approach to improve fluid management in patients with CKD on dialysis, but further research would be of value to reduce the current uncertainties.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12962-021-00276-6.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Gemtuzumab Ozogamicin for First-Line Treatment of Patients with Cd-33 Positive Acute Myeloid Leukaemia in Spain

Objective

To assess the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of gemtuzumab ozogamicin (GO) + standard of care (SOC) vs SOC alone for treatment of patients with de novo AML from a Spanish Health Service perspective.

Methods

A cohort state-transition model, with 12 health-states, was used to estimate the lifetime accumulated cost and benefits in terms of quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) in AML patients with favourable, intermediate, and unknown cytogenetic profiles. Patient profile was defined based on the ALFA-0701 trial. Therapeutic regimens were defined by 5 haematologists. SOC was assumed to be idarubicin and cytarabine, the combination most used in Spain. QALYs were estimated by applying utilities for the time spent by the cohort in each health-state and utility decrements associated with adverse events (AE). Total cost (€,2020) included drug-acquisition, hematologic stem-cell transplantation, disease management, AE management and end-of-life costs. Unit costs were derived from local databases. All parameters were validated by haematologist. Costs and outcomes were discounted (3%/year).

Results

Higher cost/patient (€177,618 vs €151,434) and greater QALYs (5,70 vs 4,62) were obtained with GO+SOC vs SOC. The ICUR was €24,203/QALY gained.

Conclusion

This simulation suggests that GO + SOC could be a cost-effective option for treatment of patients with de novo AML in first line.

A digital behaviour change intervention to increase booking and attendance at Stop Smoking Services: the MyWay feasibility RCT

Background

Smoking remains a leading cause of illness and preventable death. NHS Stop Smoking Services increase quitting, but, as access is in decline, cost-effective interventions are needed that promote these services. StopApp™ (Coventry University, Coventry, UK) is designed to increase booking and attendance at Stop Smoking Services.

Design

A two-arm feasibility randomised controlled trial of StopApp (intervention) compared with standard promotion and referral to Stop Smoking Services (control) was conducted to assess recruitment, attrition and health equity of the design, alongside health economic and qualitative process evaluations.

Setting

Smokers recruited via general practitioners, community settings and social media.

Participants

Smokers aged ≥ 16 years were recruited in one local authority. Participants had to live or work within the local authority area, and there was a recruitment target of 120 participants.

Interventions

StopApp to increase booking and attendance at Stop Smoking Services.

Main outcome measures

Participants completed baseline measures and follow-up at 2 months post randomisation entirely online. Objective data on the use of Stop Smoking Services were collected from participating Stop Smoking Services, and age groups, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic status in baseline recruits and follow-up completers/non-completers were assessed for equity.

Results

Eligible participants (n = 123) were recruited over 116 days, with good representation of lower socioeconomic status groups; black, Asian and minority ethnic groups; and all age groups. Demographic profiles of follow-up completers and non-completers were broadly similar. The attrition rate was 51.2%, with loss to follow-up lowest in the social media setting (n = 24/61; 39.3%) and highest in the general practitioner setting (n = 21/26; 80.8%). Most measures had < 5% missing data. Social media represented the most effective and cost-efficient recruitment method. In a future, definitive, multisite trial with recruitment driven by social media, our data suggest that recruiting ≥ 1500 smokers over 12 months is feasible. Service data showed that five bookings for the Stop Smoking Services were scheduled using StopApp, of which two did not attend. Challenges with data access were identified. A further five participants in the intervention arm self-reported booking and accessing Stop Smoking Services outside StopApp compared with two control arm participants. Event rate calculations for the intervention were 8% (Stop Smoking Services data), 17% (including self-reports) and 3.5% from control arm self-reports. A conservative effect size of 6% is estimated for a definitive full trial. A sample size of 840 participants would be required to detect an effect for the primary outcome measure of booking a Stop Smoking Services appointment in a full randomised controlled trial. The process evaluation found that participants were satisfied with the research team contact, study methods and provision of e-vouchers. Staff interviews revealed positive and negative experiences of the trial and suggestions for improvements, including encouraging smokers to take part.

Conclusion

This feasibility randomised controlled trial found that, with recruitment driven wholly or mainly by social media, it is possible to recruit and retain sufficient smokers to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of StopApp. The study methods and measures were found to be acceptable and equitable, but accessing Stop Smoking Services data about booking, attendance and quit dates was a challenge. A full trial may be feasible if service data are accessible. This will require careful planning with data controllers and a targeted social media campaign for recruitment. Changes to some study measures are needed to avoid missing data, including implementation of a more intensive follow-up data collection process.

Future work

We plan a full, definitive randomised controlled trial if the concerns around data access can be resolved, with adaptations to the recruitment and retention strategy.

Limitations

Our trial had high attrition and problems with collecting Stop Smoking Services data, which resulted in a reliance on self-reporting.

Trial registration

Research Registry: 3995. The trial was registered on 18 April 2018.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 9, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The EORTC QLU-C10D was more efficient in detecting clinical known group differences in myelodysplastic syndromes than the EQ-5D-3L

BACKGROUND

The aim was to investigate the relative validity of the preference-based measure EORTC QLU-C10D in comparison with the EQ-5D-3L in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) patients.

METHODS

We used data from an international multicentre, observational cohort study of MDS patients. Baseline EORTC QLU-C10D and EQ-5D-3L scores were used and index scores calculated for Italy, Australia, and the UK. Criterion validity was established by Spearman and intraclass correlations (ICC) and Bland-Altman plots. Construct validity was established by the instruments' ability to discriminate known groups, i.e. groups whose health status is expected to differ.

RESULTS

We analyzed data from 619 MDS patients (61.1% male; median age 73.8 years). Correlations between theoretically corresponding domains were largely higher than between unrelated domains. ICCs and Bland-Altman plots indicated moderate to good criterion validity. Ceiling effects were lower for the QLU-C10D (4.7%) than for the EQ-5D-3L (22.6%). The EQ-5D-3L failed to discriminate known-groups in two and the QLU-C10D in one of the comparisons; the QLU-C10D's efficiency in doing so was higher in clinical known-groups. Results were comparable between the countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The QLU-C10D may be suitable to generate health utilities for economic research in MDS. Responsiveness and minimal important differences need yet to be established.

Prognostic tools for identification of high risk in people with Crohn's disease: systematic review and cost-effectiveness study

BACKGROUND

Crohn's disease is a lifelong condition that can affect any segment of the gastrointestinal tract. Some people with Crohn's disease may be at higher risk of following a severe course of disease than others and being able to identify the level of risk a patient has could lead to personalised management.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prognostic test accuracy, clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of two tools for the stratification of people with a diagnosis of Crohn's disease by risk of following a severe course of disease.

DATA SOURCES

The data sources MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched to inform the systematic reviews on prognostic accuracy, clinical impact of the prognostic tools, and economic evaluations. Additional data sources to inform the review of economic evaluations were NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and the Health Technology Assessment Database.

REVIEW METHODS

Systematic reviews of electronic databases were carried out from inception to June 2019 for studies assessing the prognostic accuracy and clinical impact of the IBDX® (Crohn's disease Prognosis Test; Glycominds Ltd, Lod, Israel) biomarker stratification tool and the PredictSURE-IBD™ (PredictImmune Ltd, Cambridge, UK) tool. Systematic reviews of studies reporting on the cost-effectiveness of treatments for Crohn's disease were run from inception to July 2019. Two reviewers independently agreed on studies for inclusion, assessed the quality of included studies and validated the data extracted from studies. Clinical and methodological heterogeneity across studies precluded the synthesis of data for prognostic accuracy. A de novo economic model was developed to compare the costs and consequences of two treatment approaches - the 'top-down' and 'step-up' strategies, with step-up considered standard care - in people at high risk of following a severe course of Crohn's disease. The model comprised a decision tree and a Markov cohort model.

RESULTS

Sixteen publications, including eight original studies (n = 1478), were deemed relevant to the review of prognostic accuracy. Documents supplied by the companies marketing the prognostic tools were also reviewed. No study meeting the eligibility criteria reported on the sensitivity or specificity of the IBDX biomarker stratification tool, whereas one study provided estimates of sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value for the PredictSURE-IBD tool. All identified studies were observational and were considered to provide weak evidence on the effectiveness of the tools. Owing to the paucity of data on the two tools, in the base-case analysis the accuracy of PredictSURE-IBD was assumed to be 100%. Accuracy of IBDX was assumed to be 100% in a scenario analysis, with the cost of the tests being the only difference between the analyses. The incremental analysis of cost-effectiveness demonstrated that top-down (via the use of PredictSURE-IBD in the model) is more expensive and generates fewer quality-adjusted life-years than step-up (via the standard care arm of the model).

LIMITATIONS

Despite extensive systematic searches of the literature, no robust evidence was identified of the prognostic accuracy of the biomarker stratification tools IBDX and PredictSURE-IBD.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the model indicates that standard care dominates the tests, the lack of evidence of prognostic accuracy of the two tests and the uncertainty around the benefits of the top-down and step-up treatment approaches mean that the results should be interpreted as indicative rather than definitive.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019138737.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 23. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Modelling of hypothetical SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests on admission to hospital from A&E: rapid cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019. At the time of writing (October 2020), the number of cases of COVID-19 had been approaching 38 million and more than 1 million deaths were attributable to it. SARS-CoV-2 appears to be highly transmissible and could rapidly spread in hospital wards.

OBJECTIVE

The work undertaken aimed to estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of viral detection point-of-care tests for detecting SARS-CoV-2 compared with laboratory-based tests. A further objective was to assess occupancy levels in hospital areas, such as waiting bays, before allocation to an appropriate bay.

PERSPECTIVE/SETTING

The perspective was that of the UK NHS in 2020. The setting was a hypothetical hospital with an accident and emergency department.

METHODS

An individual patient model was constructed that simulated the spread of disease and mortality within the hospital and recorded occupancy levels. Thirty-two strategies involving different hypothetical SARS-CoV-2 tests were modelled. Recently published desirable and acceptable target product profiles for SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests were modelled. Incremental analyses were undertaken using both incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and net monetary benefits, and key patient outcomes, such as death and intensive care unit care, caused directly by COVID-19 were recorded.

RESULTS

A SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care test with a desirable target product profile appears to have a relatively small number of infections, a low occupancy level within the waiting bays, and a high net monetary benefit. However, if hospital laboratory testing can produce results in 6 hours, then the benefits of point-of-care tests may be reduced. The acceptable target product profiles performed less well and had lower net monetary benefits than both a laboratory-based test with a 24-hour turnaround time and strategies using data from currently available SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests. The desirable and acceptable point-of-care test target product profiles had lower requirement for patients to be in waiting bays before being allocated to an appropriate bay than laboratory-based tests, which may be of high importance in some hospitals. Tests that appeared more cost-effective also had better patient outcomes.

LIMITATIONS

There is considerable uncertainty in the values for key parameters within the model, although calibration was undertaken in an attempt to mitigate this. The example hospital simulated will also not match those of decision-makers deciding on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of introducing SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests. Given these limitations, the results should be taken as indicative rather than definitive, particularly cost-effectiveness results when the relative cost per SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care test is uncertain.

CONCLUSIONS

Should a SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care test with a desirable target product profile become available, this appears promising, particularly when the reduction on the requirements for waiting bays before allocation to a SARS-CoV-2-infected bay, or a non-SARS-CoV-2-infected bay, is considered. The results produced should be informative to decision-makers who can identify the results most pertinent to their specific circumstances.

FUTURE WORK

More accurate results could be obtained when there is more certainty on the diagnostic accuracy of, and the reduction in time to test result associated with, SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests, and on the impact of these tests on occupancy of waiting bays and isolation bays. These parameters are currently uncertain.

FUNDING

This report was commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme as project number 132154. This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 21. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for monitoring TNF-alpha inhibitors and antibody levels in people with rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune disease that primarily causes inflammation, pain and stiffness in the joints. People with severe disease may be treated with biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs, including tumour necrosis factor-α inhibitors, but the efficacy of these drugs is hampered by the presence of anti-drug antibodies. Monitoring the response to these treatments typically involves clinical assessment using response criteria, such as Disease Activity Score in 28 joints or European League Against Rheumatism. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays can also be used to measure drug and antibody levels in the blood. These tests may inform whether or not adjustments to treatment are required or help clinicians to understand the reasons for treatment non-response or a loss of response.

METHODS

Systematic reviews were conducted to identify studies reporting on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays to measure drug and anti-drug antibody levels to monitor the response to tumour necrosis factor-α inhibitors [adalimumab (Humira®; AbbVie, Inc., North Chicago, IL, USA), etanercept (Enbrel®; Pfizer, Inc., New York, NY, USA), infliximab (Remicade®, Merck Sharp & Dohme Limited, Hoddesdon, UK), certolizumab pegol (Cimzia®; UCB Pharma Limited, Slough, UK) and golimumab (Simponi®; Merck Sharp & Dohme Limited)] in people with rheumatoid arthritis who had either achieved treatment target (remission or low disease activity) or shown primary or secondary non-response to treatment. A range of bibliographic databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), were searched from inception to November 2018. The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane ROBINS-1 (Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions) tool for non-randomised studies, with adaptations as appropriate. Threshold and cost-utility analyses that were based on a decision tree model were conducted to estimate the economic outcomes of adding therapeutic drug monitoring to standard care. The costs and resource use were considered from the perspective of the NHS and Personal Social Services. No discounting was applied to the costs and effects owing to the short-term time horizon of 18 months that was adopted in the economic analysis. The impact on the results of variations in testing and treatment strategies was explored in numerous clinically plausible sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Two studies were identified: (1) a non-randomised controlled trial, INGEBIO, that compared standard care with therapeutic drug monitoring using Promonitor® assays [Progenika Biopharma SA (a Grifols-Progenika company), Derio, Spain] in Spanish patients receiving adalimumab who had achieved remission or low disease activity; and (2) a historical control study. The economic analyses were informed by INGEBIO. Different outcomes from INGEBIO produced inconsistent results in both threshold and cost-utility analyses. The cost-effectiveness of therapeutic drug monitoring varied, from the intervention being dominant to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £164,009 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. However, when the frequency of testing was assumed to be once per year and the cost of phlebotomy appointments was excluded, therapeutic drug monitoring dominated standard care.

LIMITATIONS

There is limited relevant research evidence and much uncertainty about the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-based testing for therapeutic drug monitoring in rheumatoid arthritis patients. INGEBIO had serious limitations in relation to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence scope: only one-third of participants had rheumatoid arthritis, the analyses were mostly not by intention to treat and the follow-up was 18 months only. Moreover, the outcomes might not be generalisable to the NHS.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the available evidence, no firm conclusions could be made about the cost-effectiveness of therapeutic drug monitoring in England and Wales.

FUTURE WORK

Further controlled trials are required to assess the impact of using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for monitoring the anti-tumour necrosis factors in people with rheumatoid arthritis.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018105195.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Long-Term Outcomes of Previously Treated Adult and Adolescent Patients with Severe Hemophilia A Receiving Prophylaxis with Extended Half-Life FVIII Treatments: An Economic Analysis from a United Kingdom Perspective

Background

The standard of care for patients with hemophilia A is prophylaxis with factor VIII (FVIII) therapies. Extended half-life (EHL) FVIII products offer a reduced infusion burden compared with standard FVIII treatments. However, comparative evidence between EHLs is lacking.

Objective

To develop a pharmacodynamic–pharmacokinetic decision model to predict comparative bleed outcomes of adolescents and adults with hemophilia A receiving treatment with various EHL FVIII therapies, capturing differences in cumulative bleeding episodes, breakthrough bleed resolution and resource costs, as well as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).

Methods

The patient population from the pathfinder 2 Phase III clinical trial was used to understand the link between FVIII levels and annual bleeding rates (ABRs). Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling was subsequently applied to estimate FVIII levels for four EHL FVIII treatments (turoctocog alfa pegol [Esperoct^®], rurioctocog alfa pegol [Adynovi^®], efmoroctocog alfa [Elocta^®], and damoctocog alfa pegol [Jivi^®]) to predict comparative ABRs. FVIII consumption costs (due to prophylactic treatment and breakthrough bleed resolution) and resource costs, as well as QALYs, were subsequently estimated from a UK NHS perspective over a 70-year time horizon.

Results

Turoctocog alfa pegol prophylaxis resulted in 8–19% fewer cumulative bleeding episodes versus comparators in the base case scenario. Assuming parity in annual prophylaxis costs, turoctocog alfa pegol prophylaxis reduced the cost of product and resource use to resolve a breakthrough bleed by 9–25% versus comparators. Prophylaxis with turoctocog alfa pegol was also associated with the most QALYs, representing a discounted QALY gain of 0.35–1.05 compared with the other treatments.

Conclusion

Using a pharmacodynamic–pharmacokinetic decision model, turoctocog alfa pegol prophylaxis was associated with fewer cumulative bleeds, as well as lower product and resource costs related to resolving a breakthrough bleed and most QALYs versus comparators.

Cost-effectiveness of olaparib versus routine surveillance in the maintenance setting for patients with BRCA-mutated advanced ovarian cancer after response to first-line platinum-based chemotherapy in Singapore

Objective

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of olaparib as a maintenance treatment versus routine surveillance (RS) in patients with BRCA mutated (BRCAm) advanced ovarian cancer (OC) following response to first-line platinum-based chemotherapy in Singapore.

Methods

A 4-health state partitioned survival model was developed to simulate the lifetime (50 years) incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of olaparib versus RS from a healthcare payer perspective. Progression-free survival, time to second disease progression, and overall survival were estimated using SOLO-1 data and extrapolated beyond the trial period using parametric survival models. Any patient who remained progression-free at year 7 was assumed to be no longer at risk of progression. Mortality rates were based on all-cause mortality, adjusted based on BRCA1/2 mutation. Health state utilities and adverse event frequencies were from SOLO-1. Drug costs were from local public healthcare institutions. Healthcare resource usage and costs were from local clinician input and publications. A 3% discount rate was applied to costs and outcomes. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed to assess the robustness of results.

Results

The base-case analysis of olaparib maintenance therapy versus RS resulted in an ICER of Singapore dollar (SGD) 19,822 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The ICER was most sensitive to variations in the discount rate. PSA demonstrated that olaparib had an 87% probability of being cost-effective versus RS at a willingness-to-pay of SGD 60,000 per QALY gained.

Conclusion

Olaparib has a high potential of being a cost-effective maintenance treatment versus RS for patients with BRCA1/2m advanced OC after response to first-line chemotherapy in Singapore.

An economic evaluation of vagus nerve stimulation as an adjunctive treatment to anti-seizure medications for the treatment of drug-resistant epilepsy in England

INTRODUCTION

Anti-seizure medications (ASMs) are commonly used to prevent recurring epileptic seizures, but around a third of people with epilepsy fail to achieve an adequate response. Vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) is clinically recommended for people with drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) who are not suitable for surgery, but the cost-effectiveness of the intervention has not recently been evaluated. The study objective is to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with using VNS as an adjunct to ongoing ASM therapy, compared to the strategy of using only ASMs in the treatment of people with DRE, from an English National Health Service perspective.

METHODS

A cohort state transition model was developed in Microsoft Excel to simulate costs and QALYs of the VNS + ASM and ASM only strategies. Patients could transition between five health states, using a 3-month cycle length. Health states were defined by an expected percentage reduction in seizure frequency, derived from randomized control trial data. Costs included the VNS device as well as its installation, setup, and removal; ASM therapy; adverse events associated with VNS (dyspnea, hoarseness, and cough); and health-state costs associated with epilepsy including hospitalizations, emergency department visits, neurologist visits, and primary care visits. A range of sensitivity analyses, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis, were run to assess the impact of parameter and structural uncertainty.

RESULTS

In the base case, VNS + ASM had an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £17,771 per QALY gained compared to ASMs alone. The cost-effective ICER was driven by relative reductions in expected seizure frequency and the differences in health care resource use associated therewith. Sensitivity analyses found that the amount of resource use per epilepsy-related health state was a key driver of the cost component.

CONCLUSIONS

VNS is expected to be a cost-effective intervention in the treatment of DRE in the English National Health Service.

Moving beyond the stage: how characteristics at diagnosis dictate treatment and treatment-related quality of life year losses for women with early stage invasive breast cancer

Background:Although evaluations of breast cancer screening programs frequently estimate quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) losses by stage, other breast cancer characteristics influence treatment and vary by mode of detection - i.e. whether the cancer is detected through screening (screen-detected), between screening rounds (interval-detected) or outside screening (community-detected). Here, we estimate the association between early-stage invasive breast cancer (ESIBC) characteristics and treatment-related QALY losses.Methods:Using clinicopathological and treatment information from 675 women managed for ESIBC, we estimated the average five-year treatment-related QALY loss by detection group. We then used regression analysis to estimate the extent to which known cancer characteristics and the detection mode, are associated with treatment and treatment-related QALY losses.Results:Community-detected cancers had the largest QALY loss (0.76 QALYs [95% CI 0.73;0.80]), followed by interval-detected cancers (0.75 QALYs [95% CI 0.68;0.82]) and screen-detected cancers (0.69 QALYs [95%CI 0.67;0.71]). Adverse prognostic factors more common in community-detected and interval-detected breast cancers (large tumours, lymph node involvement, high grade) were largely associated with QALY losses from mastectomies and chemotherapy. Receptor-positive subtypes, more common in screen-detected cancers, were associated with QALY losses related to endocrine therapy.Conclusions:The associations between ESIBC characteristics and treatment-related QALY losses should be considered when evaluating breast cancer screening and treatment strategies.

Cancer diagnostic tools to aid decision-making in primary care: mixed-methods systematic reviews and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Tools based on diagnostic prediction models are available to help general practitioners diagnose cancer. It is unclear whether or not tools expedite diagnosis or affect patient quality of life and/or survival.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to evaluate the evidence on the validation, clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and availability and use of cancer diagnostic tools in primary care.

METHODS

Two systematic reviews were conducted to examine the clinical effectiveness (review 1) and the development, validation and accuracy (review 2) of diagnostic prediction models for aiding general practitioners in cancer diagnosis. Bibliographic searches were conducted on MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science) in May 2017, with updated searches conducted in November 2018. A decision-analytic model explored the tools' clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in colorectal cancer. The model compared patient outcomes and costs between strategies that included the use of the tools and those that did not, using the NHS perspective. We surveyed 4600 general practitioners in randomly selected UK practices to determine the proportions of general practices and general practitioners with access to, and using, cancer decision support tools. Association between access to these tools and practice-level cancer diagnostic indicators was explored.

RESULTS

Systematic review 1 - five studies, of different design and quality, reporting on three diagnostic tools, were included. We found no evidence that using the tools was associated with better outcomes. Systematic review 2 - 43 studies were included, reporting on prediction models, in various stages of development, for 14 cancer sites (including multiple cancers). Most studies relate to QCancer® (ClinRisk Ltd, Leeds, UK) and risk assessment tools.

DECISION MODEL

In the absence of studies reporting their clinical outcomes, QCancer and risk assessment tools were evaluated against faecal immunochemical testing. A linked data approach was used, which translates diagnostic accuracy into time to diagnosis and treatment, and stage at diagnosis. Given the current lack of evidence, the model showed that the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tools in colorectal cancer relies on demonstrating patient survival benefits. Sensitivity of faecal immunochemical testing and specificity of QCancer and risk assessment tools in a low-risk population were the key uncertain parameters.

SURVEY

Practitioner- and practice-level response rates were 10.3% (476/4600) and 23.3% (227/975), respectively. Cancer decision support tools were available in 83 out of 227 practices (36.6%, 95% confidence interval 30.3% to 43.1%), and were likely to be used in 38 out of 227 practices (16.7%, 95% confidence interval 12.1% to 22.2%). The mean 2-week-wait referral rate did not differ between practices that do and practices that do not have access to QCancer or risk assessment tools (mean difference of 1.8 referrals per 100,000 referrals, 95% confidence interval -6.7 to 10.3 referrals per 100,000 referrals).

LIMITATIONS

There is little good-quality evidence on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tools. Many diagnostic prediction models are limited by a lack of external validation. There are limited data on current UK practice and clinical outcomes of diagnostic strategies, and there is no evidence on the quality-of-life outcomes of diagnostic results. The survey was limited by low response rates.

CONCLUSION

The evidence base on the tools is limited. Research on how general practitioners interact with the tools may help to identify barriers to implementation and uptake, and the potential for clinical effectiveness.

FUTURE WORK

Continued model validation is recommended, especially for risk assessment tools. Assessment of the tools' impact on time to diagnosis and treatment, stage at diagnosis, and health outcomes is also recommended, as is further work to understand how tools are used in general practitioner consultations.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017068373 and CRD42017068375.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Antimicrobial-impregnated central venous catheters for preventing neonatal bloodstream infection: the PREVAIL RCT

BACKGROUND

Clinical trials show that antimicrobial-impregnated central venous catheters reduce catheter-related bloodstream infection in adults and children receiving intensive care, but there is insufficient evidence for use in newborn babies.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were (1) to determine clinical effectiveness by conducting a randomised controlled trial comparing antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheters with standard peripherally inserted central venous catheters for reducing bloodstream or cerebrospinal fluid infections (referred to as bloodstream infections); (2) to conduct an economic evaluation of the costs, cost-effectiveness and value of conducting additional research; and (3) to conduct a generalisability analysis of trial findings to neonatal care in the NHS.

DESIGN

Three separate studies were undertaken, each addressing one of the three objectives. (1) This was a multicentre, open-label, pragmatic randomised controlled trial; (2) an analysis was undertaken of hospital care costs, lifetime cost-effectiveness and value of information from an NHS perspective; and (3) this was a retrospective cohort study of bloodstream infection rates in neonatal units in England.

SETTING

The randomised controlled trial was conducted in 18 neonatal intensive care units in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were babies who required a peripherally inserted central venous catheter (of 1 French gauge in size).

INTERVENTIONS

The interventions were an antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheter (coated with rifampicin-miconazole) or a standard peripherally inserted central venous catheter, allocated randomly (1 : 1) using web randomisation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Study 1 - time to first bloodstream infection, sampled between 24 hours after randomisation and 48 hours after peripherally inserted central venous catheter removal. Study 2 - cost-effectiveness of the antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheter compared with the standard peripherally inserted central venous catheters. Study 3 - risk-adjusted bloodstream rates in the trial compared with those in neonatal units in England. For study 3, the data used were as follows: (1) case report forms and linked death registrations; (2) case report forms and linked death registrations linked to administrative health records with 6-month follow-up; and (3) neonatal health records linked to infection surveillance data.

RESULTS

Study 1, clinical effectiveness - 861 babies were randomised (antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheter, n = 430; standard peripherally inserted central venous catheter, n = 431). Bloodstream infections occurred in 46 babies (10.7%) randomised to antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheters and in 44 (10.2%) babies randomised to standard peripherally inserted central venous catheters. No difference in time to bloodstream infection was detected (hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.73 to 1.67; p = 0.63). Secondary outcomes of rifampicin resistance in positive blood/cerebrospinal fluid cultures, mortality, clinical outcomes at neonatal unit discharge and time to peripherally inserted central venous catheter removal were similar in both groups. Rifampicin resistance in positive peripherally inserted central venous catheter tip cultures was higher in the antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheter group (relative risk 3.51, 95% confidence interval 1.16 to 10.57; p = 0.02) than in the standard peripherally inserted central venous catheter group. Adverse events were similar in both groups. Study 2, economic evaluation - the mean cost of babies' hospital care was £83,473. Antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheters were not cost-effective. Given the increased price, compared with standard peripherally inserted central venous catheters, the minimum reduction in risk of bloodstream infection for antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheters to be cost-effective was 3% and 15% for babies born at 23-27 and 28-32 weeks' gestation, respectively. Study 3, generalisability analysis - risk-adjusted bloodstream infection rates per 1000 peripherally inserted central venous catheter days were similar among babies in the trial and in all neonatal units. Of all bloodstream infections in babies receiving intensive or high-dependency care in neonatal units, 46% occurred during peripherally inserted central venous catheter days.

LIMITATIONS

The trial was open label as antimicrobial-impregnated and standard peripherally inserted central venous catheters are different colours. There was insufficient power to determine differences in rifampicin resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

No evidence of benefit or harm was found of peripherally inserted central venous catheters impregnated with rifampicin-miconazole during neonatal care. Interventions with small effects on bloodstream infections could be cost-effective over a child's life course. Findings were generalisable to neonatal units in England. Future research should focus on other types of antimicrobial impregnation of peripherally inserted central venous catheters and alternative approaches for preventing bloodstream infections in neonatal care.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN81931394.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 57. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Costing the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Exploratory Economic Evaluation of Hypothetical Suppression Policy in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to cost and calculate the relative cost-effectiveness of the hypothetical suppression policies found in the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team model.

METHODS

Key population-level disease projections in deaths, intensive care unit bed days, and non-intensive care unit bed days were taken from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report of March 2020, which influenced the decision to introduce suppression policies in the United Kingdom. National income loss estimates were from a study that estimated the impact of a hypothetical pandemic on the UK economy, with sensitivity analyses based on projections that are more recent. Individual quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) loss and costed resource use inputs were taken from published sources.

RESULTS

Imperial model projected suppression polices compared to an unmitigated pandemic, even with the most pessimistic national income loss scenarios under suppression (10%), give incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below £50 000 per QALY. Assuming a maximum reduction in national income of 7.75%, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for Imperial model projected suppression versus mitigation are below 60 000 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Results are uncertain and conditional on the accuracy of the Imperial model projections; they are also sensitive to estimates of national income loss. Nevertheless, it would be difficult to claim that the hypothetical Imperial model-projected suppression policies are obviously cost-ineffective relative to the alternatives available. Despite evolving differences between government policy and Imperial model-projected suppression policy, it is hoped this article will provide some early insight into the trade-offs that are involved.

Behavioural activation therapy for post-stroke depression: the BEADS feasibility RCT

BACKGROUND

There is currently insufficient evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of psychological therapies for post-stroke depression.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the feasibility of undertaking a definitive trial to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of behavioural activation (BA) compared with usual stroke care for treating post-stroke depression.

DESIGN

Parallel-group, feasibility, multicentre, randomised controlled trial with nested qualitative research and a health economic evaluation.

SETTING

Acute and community stroke services in three sites in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Community-dwelling adults 3 months to 5 years post stroke who are depressed, as determined by the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) or the Visual Analogue Mood Scales 'Sad' item. Exclusions: patients who are blind and/or deaf, have dementia, are unable to communicate in English, do not have mental capacity to consent, are receiving treatment for depression at the time of stroke onset or are currently receiving psychological intervention.

RANDOMISATION AND BLINDING

Participants were randomised (1 : 1 ratio) to BA or usual stroke care. Randomisation was conducted using a computer-generated list with random permuted blocks of varying sizes, stratified by site. Participants and therapists were aware of the allocation, but outcome assessors were blind.

INTERVENTIONS

The intervention arm received up to 15 sessions of BA over 4 months. BA aims to improve mood by increasing people's level of enjoyable or valued activities. The control arm received usual care only.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary feasibility outcomes concerned feasibility of recruitment to the main trial, acceptability of research procedures and measures, appropriateness of baseline and outcome measures, retention of participants and potential value of conducting the definitive trial. Secondary feasibility outcomes concerned the delivery of the intervention. The primary clinical outcome 6 months post randomisation was the PHQ-9. Secondary clinical outcomes were Stroke Aphasic Depression Questionnaire - Hospital version, Nottingham Leisure Questionnaire, Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living, Carer Strain Index, EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version and health-care resource use questionnaire.

RESULTS

Forty-eight participants were recruited in 27 centre-months of recruitment, at a recruitment rate of 1.8 participants per centre per month. The 25 participants randomised to receive BA attended a mean of 8.5 therapy sessions [standard deviation (SD) 4.4 therapy sessions]; 23 participants were allocated to usual care. Outcome assessments were completed by 39 (81%) participants (BA, n = 18; usual care, n = 21). Mean PHQ-9 scores at 6-month follow-up were 10.1 points (SD 6.9 points) and 14.4 points (SD 5.1 points) in the BA and control groups, respectively, a difference of -3.8 (95% confidence interval -6.9 to -0.6) after adjusting for baseline PHQ-9 score and centre, representing a reduction in depression in the BA arm. Therapy was delivered as intended. BA was acceptable to participants, carers and therapists. Value-of-information analysis indicates that the benefits of conducting a definitive trial would be likely to outweigh the costs. It is estimated that a sample size of between 580 and 623 participants would be needed for a definitive trial.

LIMITATIONS

Target recruitment was not achieved, although we identified methods to improve recruitment.

CONCLUSIONS

The Behavioural Activation Therapy for Depression after Stroke trial was feasible with regard to the majority of outcomes. The outstanding issue is whether or not a sufficient number of participants could be recruited within a reasonable time frame for a definitive trial. Future work is required to identify whether or not there are sufficient sites that are able to deliver the services required for a definitive trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN12715175.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 47. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The Arthroplasty Candidacy Help Engine tool to select candidates for hip and knee replacement surgery: development and economic modelling

BACKGROUND

There is no good evidence to support the use of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in setting preoperative thresholds for referral for hip and knee replacement surgery. Despite this, the practice is widespread in the NHS.

OBJECTIVES/RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Can clinical outcome tools be used to set thresholds for hip or knee replacement? What is the relationship between the choice of threshold and the cost-effectiveness of surgery?

METHODS

A systematic review identified PROMs used to assess patients undergoing hip/knee replacement. Their measurement properties were compared and supplemented by analysis of existing data sets. For each candidate score, we calculated the absolute threshold (a preoperative level above which there is no potential for improvement) and relative thresholds (preoperative levels above which individuals are less likely to improve than others). Owing to their measurement properties and the availability of data from their current widespread use in the NHS, the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and Oxford Hip Score (OHS) were selected as the most appropriate scores to use in developing the Arthroplasty Candidacy Help Engine (ACHE) tool. The change in score and the probability of an improvement were then calculated and modelled using preoperative and postoperative OKS/OHSs and PROM scores, thereby creating the ACHE tool. Markov models were used to assess the cost-effectiveness of total hip/knee arthroplasty in the NHS for different preoperative values of OKS/OHSs over a 10-year period. The threshold values were used to model how the ACHE tool may change the number of referrals in a single UK musculoskeletal hub. A user group was established that included patients, members of the public and health-care representatives, to provide stakeholder feedback throughout the research process.

RESULTS

From a shortlist of four scores, the OHS and OKS were selected for the ACHE tool based on their measurement properties, calculated preoperative thresholds and cost-effectiveness data. The absolute threshold was 40 for the OHS and 41 for the OKS using the preferred improvement criterion. A range of relative thresholds were calculated based on the relationship between a patient's preoperative score and their probability of improving after surgery. For example, a preoperative OHS of 35 or an OKS of 30 translates to a 75% probability of achieving a good outcome from surgical intervention. The economic evaluation demonstrated that hip and knee arthroplasty cost of < £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year for patients with any preoperative score below the absolute thresholds (40 for the OHS and 41 for the OKS). Arthroplasty was most cost-effective for patients with lower preoperative scores.

LIMITATIONS

The ACHE tool supports but does not replace the shared decision-making process required before an individual decides whether or not to undergo surgery.

CONCLUSION

The OHS and OKS can be used in the ACHE tool to assess an individual patient's suitability for hip/knee replacement surgery. The system enables evidence-based and informed threshold setting in accordance with local resources and policies. At a population level, both hip and knee arthroplasty are highly cost-effective right up to the absolute threshold for intervention. Our stakeholder user group felt that the ACHE tool was a useful evidence-based clinical tool to aid referrals and that it should be trialled in NHS clinical practice to establish its feasibility.

FUTURE WORK

Future work could include (1) a real-world study of the ACHE tool to determine its acceptability to patients and general practitioners and (2) a study of the role of the ACHE tool in supporting referral decisions.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Type 2 diabetes remission: 2 year within-trial and lifetime-horizon cost-effectiveness of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)/Counterweight-Plus weight management programme

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Approximately 10% of total healthcare budgets worldwide are spent on treating diabetes and its complications, and budgets are increasing globally because of ageing populations and more expensive second-line medications. The aims of the study were to estimate the within-trial and lifetime cost-effectiveness of the weight management programme, which achieved 46% remissions of type 2 diabetes at year 1 and 36% at year 2 in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

METHODS

Within-trial analysis assessed costs of the Counterweight-Plus intervention in DiRECT (including training, programme materials, practitioner appointments and low-energy diet), along with glucose-lowering and antihypertensive medications, and all routine healthcare contacts. Lifetime cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was estimated according to projected durations of remissions, assuming continued relapse rates as seen in year 2 of DiRECT and consequent life expectancy, quality of life and healthcare costs.

RESULTS

Mean total 2 year healthcare costs for the intervention and control groups were £3036 and £2420, respectively: an incremental cost of £616 (95% CI -£45, £1269). Intervention costs (£1411; 95% CI £1308, £1511) were partially offset by lower other healthcare costs (£796; 95% CI £150, £1465), including reduced oral glucose-lowering medications by £231 (95% CI £148, £314). Net remission at 2 years was 32.3% (95% CI 23.5%, 40.3%), and cost per remission achieved was £1907 (lower 95% CI: intervention dominates; upper 95% CI: £4212). Over a lifetime horizon, the intervention was modelled to achieve a mean 0.06 (95% CI 0.04, 0.09) QALY gain for the DiRECT population and mean total lifetime cost savings per participant of £1337 (95% CI £674, £2081), with the intervention becoming cost-saving within 6 years.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Incorporating the lifetime healthcare cost savings due to periods of remission from diabetes and its complications, the DiRECT intervention is predicted to be both more effective (QALY gain) and cost-saving in adults with type 2 diabetes compared with standard care. This conclusion appears robust to various less favourable model scenarios, providing strong evidence that resources could be shifted cost-effectively to support achieving remissions with the DiRECT intervention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN03267836 Graphical abstract.

The Impact of Including Costs and Outcomes of Dementia in a Health Economic Model to Evaluate Lifestyle Interventions to Prevent Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease

Objectives

Economic evaluations of lifestyle interventions, which aim to prevent diabetes/cardiovascular disease (CVD), have not included dementia. Lifestyle interventions decrease dementia risk and extend life expectancy, leading to competing effects on health care costs. We aim to demonstrate the feasibility of including dementia in a public health cost-effectiveness analysis and quantify the overall impacts accounting for these competing effects.

Methods

The School for Public Health Research (SPHR) diabetes prevention model describes individuals’ risk of type 2 diabetes, microvascular outcomes, CVD, congestive heart failure, cancer, osteoarthritis, depression, and mortality in England. In version 3.1, we adapted the model to include dementia using published data from primary care databases, health surveys, and trials of dementia to describe dementia incidence, diagnosis, and disease progression. We estimate the impact of dementia on lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained of the National Health Service diabetes prevention program (NHS DPP) from an NHS/personal social services perspective with 3 scenarios: 1) no dementia, 2) dementia only, and 3) reduced dementia risk. Subgroup, parameter, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results

The lifetime cost savings of the NHS DPP per patient were £145 in the no-dementia scenario, £121 in the dementia-only scenario, and £167 in the reduced dementia risk scenario. The QALY gains increased by 0.0006 in dementia only and 0.0134 in reduced dementia risk. Dementia did not alter the recommendation that the NHS/DPP is cost-effective.

Conclusions

Including dementia into a model of lifestyle interventions was feasible but did not change policy recommendations or modify health economic outcomes. The impact on health economic outcomes was largest where a direct impact on dementia incidence was assumed, particularly in elderly populations.

Three biomarker tests to help diagnose preterm labour: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth may result in short- and long-term health problems for the child. Accurate diagnoses of preterm births could prevent unnecessary (or ensure appropriate) admissions into hospitals or transfers to specialist units.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this report is to assess the test accuracy, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the diagnostic tests PartoSure™ (Parsagen Diagnostics Inc., Boston, MA, USA), Actim^® Partus (Medix Biochemica, Espoo, Finland) and the Rapid Fetal Fibronectin (fFN)^® 10Q Cassette Kit (Hologic, Inc., Marlborough, MA, USA) at thresholds ≠50 ng/ml [quantitative fFN (qfFN)] for women presenting with signs and symptoms of preterm labour relative to fFN at 50 ng/ml.

METHODS

Systematic reviews of the published literature were conducted for diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) studies of PartoSure, Actim Partus and qfFN for predicting preterm birth, the clinical effectiveness following treatment decisions informed by test results and economic evaluations of the tests. A model-based economic evaluation was also conducted to extrapolate long-term outcomes from the results of the diagnostic tests. The model followed the structure of the model that informed the 2015 National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines on preterm labour diagnosis and treatment, but with antenatal steroids use, as opposed to tocolysis, driving health outcomes.

RESULTS

Twenty studies were identified evaluating DTA against the reference standard of delivery within 7 days and seven studies were identified evaluating DTA against the reference standard of delivery within 48 hours. Two studies assessed two of the index tests within the same population. One study demonstrated that depending on the threshold used, qfFN was more or less accurate than Actim Partus, whereas the other indicated little difference between PartoSure and Actim Partus. No study assessing qfFN and PartoSure in the same population was identified. The test accuracy results from the other included studies revealed a high level of uncertainty, primarily attributable to substantial methodological, clinical and statistical heterogeneity between studies. No study compared all three tests simultaneously. No clinical effectiveness studies evaluating any of the three biomarker tests were identified. One partial economic evaluation was identified for predicting preterm birth. It assessed the number needed to treat to prevent a respiratory distress syndrome case with a 'treat-all' strategy, relative to testing with qualitative fFN. Because of the lack of data, our de novo model involved the assumption that management of pregnant women fully adhered to the results of the tests. In the base-case analysis for a woman at 30 weeks' gestation, Actim Partus had lower health-care costs and fewer quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) than qfFN at 50 ng/ml, reducing costs at a rate of £56,030 per QALY lost compared with qfFN at 50 ng/ml. PartoSure is less costly than Actim Partus while being equally effective, but this is based on diagnostic accuracy data from a small study. Treatment with qfFN at 200 ng/ml and 500 ng/ml resulted in lower cost savings per QALY lost relative to fFN at 50 ng/ml than treatment with Actim Partus. In contrast, qfFN at 10 ng/ml increased QALYs, by 0.002, and had a cost per QALY gained of £140,267 relative to fFN at 50 ng/ml. Similar qualitative results were obtained for women presenting at different gestational ages.

CONCLUSION

There is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the test accuracy and cost-effectiveness results. We are aware of four ongoing UK trials, two of which plan to enrol > 1000 participants. The results of these trials may significantly alter the findings presented here.

STUDY REGISTRATION

The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017072696.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Cost-utility analysis of inotuzumab ozogamicin for relapsed or refractory B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia from the perspective of Taiwan's health care system

OBJECTIVES

We conduct a cost-utility analysis of inotuzumab ozogamicin (INO) versus chemotherapy as the standard of care (SOC) for adults with relapsed or refractory B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

METHODS

A Markov model incorporating transition probabilities between health states was applied to simulate disease progression. The model inputs, including overall survival, progression-free survival, and utility parameters, were obtained from the INO-VATE ALL trial and literatures. The Taiwan Cancer Registry Database and the Health and Welfare Database were utilized to identify the patient cohort and medical costs from the perspective of National Health Insurance Administration. The lifetime medical costs (in 2017 US dollars), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and associated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were the main study outcomes.

RESULTS

The lifetime medical costs for INO and SOC were $176,795 and $69,496, and the QALYs gained were 2.25 and 0.84, respectively. The ICER for INO versus SOC was $76,044 per QALY gained, which is slightly more than three times Taiwan's gross domestic product per capita (i.e., $73,224). Favorable economic results for INO versus SOC were found with an increased time horizon for model simulation, less discounting for the future benefit, and higher stem cell transplantation (SCT) rate after INO treatment; and among patients aged less than 55 years, with no SCT history, or in the first salvage treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

INO versus SOC has higher costs but is more effective. The use of INO is favorable for patients in the early treatment course and when more future benefit associated with INO is considered.

Point-of-care creatinine tests to assess kidney function for outpatients requiring contrast-enhanced CT imaging: systematic reviews and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Patients with low estimated glomerular filtration rates may be at higher risk of post-contrast acute kidney injury following contrast-enhanced computed tomography imaging. Point-of-care devices allow rapid measurement of estimated glomerular filtration rates for patients referred without a recent estimated glomerular filtration rate result.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of point-of-care creatinine tests for outpatients without a recent estimated glomerular filtration rate measurement who need contrast-enhanced computed tomography imaging.

METHODS

Three systematic reviews of test accuracy, implementation and clinical outcomes, and economic analyses were carried out. Bibliographic databases were searched from inception to November 2018. Studies comparing the accuracy of point-of-care creatinine tests with laboratory reference tests to assess kidney function in adults in a non-emergency setting and studies reporting implementation and clinical outcomes were included. Risk of bias of diagnostic accuracy studies was assessed using a modified version of the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Probabilities of individuals having their estimated glomerular filtration rates correctly classified were estimated within a Bayesian framework and pooled using a fixed-effects model. A de novo probabilistic decision tree cohort model was developed to characterise the decision problem from an NHS and a Personal Social Services perspective. A range of alternative point-of-care testing approaches were considered. Scenario analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Fifty-four studies were included in the clinical reviews. Twelve studies reported diagnostic accuracy for estimated glomerular filtration rates; half were rated as being at low risk of bias, but there were applicability concerns for most. i-STAT (Abbott Point of Care, Inc., Princeton, NJ, USA) and ABL (Radiometer Ltd, Crawley, UK) devices had higher probabilities of correctly classifying individuals in the same estimated glomerular filtration rate categories as the reference laboratory test than StatSensor® devices (Nova Biomedical, Runcorn, UK). There was limited evidence for epoc® (Siemens Healthineers AG, Erlangen, Germany) and Piccolo Xpress® (Abaxis, Inc., Union City, CA, USA) devices and no studies of DRI-CHEM NX 500 (Fujifilm Corporation, Tokyo, Japan). The review of implementation and clinical outcomes included six studies showing practice variation in the management decisions when a point-of-care device indicated an abnormal estimated glomerular filtration rate. The review of cost-effectiveness evidence identified no relevant studies. The de novo decision model that was developed included a total of 14 strategies. Owing to limited data, the model included only i-STAT, ABL800 FLEX and StatSensor. In the base-case analysis, the cost-effective strategy appeared to be a three-step testing sequence involving initially screening all individuals for risk factors, point-of-care testing for those individuals with at least one risk factor, and including a final confirmatory laboratory test for individuals with a point-of-care-positive test result. Within this testing approach, the specific point-of-care device with the highest net benefit was i-STAT, although differences in net benefit with StatSensor were very small.

LIMITATIONS

There was insufficient evidence for patients with estimated glomerular filtration rates < 30 ml/minute/1.73 m2, and on the full potential health impact of delayed or rescheduled computed tomography scans or the use of alternative imaging modalities.

CONCLUSIONS

A three-step testing sequence combining a risk factor questionnaire with a point-of-care test and confirmatory laboratory testing appears to be a cost-effective use of NHS resources compared with current practice. The risk of contrast causing acute kidney injury to patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of < 30 ml/minute/1.73 m2 is uncertain. Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care testing appears largely driven by the potential of point-of-care tests to minimise delays within the current computed tomography pathway.

FUTURE WORK

Studies evaluating the impact of risk-stratifying questionnaires on workflow outcomes in computed tomography patients without recent estimated glomerular filtration rate results are needed.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018115818.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 39. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Utility value estimates in cardiovascular disease and the effect of changing elicitation methods: a systematic literature review

OBJECTIVE

Identify the most recent utility value estimates for cardiovascular disease (CVD) via systematic literature review (SLR) and explore trends in utility elicitation methods in the last 6 years.

METHODS

This SLR was updated on January 25, 2018, and identified studies reporting utilities for myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, angina, peripheral artery disease (PAD), and any-cause revascularization by searching Embase, PubMed, Health Technology Assessment Database, and grey literature.

RESULTS

A total of 375 studies reported CVD utilities (pre-2013 vs post-2013: MI, 38 vs 32; stroke, 86 vs 113; stable angina, 8 vs 9; undefined/unstable angina, 23 vs 8; PAD, 29 vs 13; revascularization, 54 vs 40). Median average utilities for MI, stroke, and revascularization increased over time (pre-2013 vs post-2013: MI, 0.71 vs 0.79; stroke, 0.63 vs 0.64; revascularization, 0.76 vs 0.81); angina and PAD showed a decrease in median values over time (stable angina, 0.83 vs 0.72; undefined/unstable angina, 0.70 vs 0.69; PAD, 0.76 vs 0.71). The proportion of utility estimates from trials increased across health states (pre-2013 vs post-2013: 22.5% vs 37.2%), as did the proportion of trials using the EuroQol Five Dimensions Questionnaire (EQ-5D; pre-2013 vs post-2013: 73.8% vs 91.4%). Use of methods such as the standard gamble, time trade-off, and Health Utilities Index has declined.

CONCLUSIONS

Health state utilities for cardiovascular health states have changed in the last 6 years, likely due to changes in the types of studies conducted, the patient populations evaluated, and possibly changing utility elicitation methods. The EQ-5D has been used more frequently.

The use of patient-reported outcome measures to guide referral for hip and knee arthroplasty

AIMS

To assess how the cost-effectiveness of total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) varies with age, sex, and preoperative Oxford Hip or Knee Score (OHS/OKS); and to identify the patient groups for whom THA/TKA is cost-effective.

METHODS

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model from a United Kingdom NHS perspective, informed by published analyses of patient-level data. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of THA and TKA in adults with hip or knee osteoarthritis compared with having no arthroplasty surgery during the ten-year time horizon.

RESULTS

THA and TKA cost < £7,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained at all preoperative scores below the absolute referral thresholds calculated previously (40 for OHS and 41 for OKS). Furthermore, THA cost < £20,000/QALY for patients with OHS of ≤ 45, while TKA was cost-effective for patients with OKS of ≤ 43, since the small improvements in quality of life outweighed the cost of surgery and any subsequent revisions. Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses demonstrated that there is little uncertainty around the conclusions.

CONCLUSION

If society is willing to pay £20,000 per QALY gained, THA and TKA are cost-effective for nearly all patients who currently undergo surgery, including all patients at and above our calculated absolute referral thresholds. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):950-958.

A Review of the Methods Used to Generate Utility Values in NICE Technology Assessments for Children and Adolescents

OBJECTIVE

This review summarizes and critically examines methods used to generate utilities for child and adolescent health states in previous National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) technology assessments (TA) and highly specialized technology (HST) evaluations.

METHODS

We identified all NICE TA and HST evaluations in which the licensed indication for the technology included people younger than 18 and included in the review all evaluations using a cost-utility analysis.

RESULTS

The review includes 40 TA and HST evaluations. Most assessments generated utility values with the EQ-5D scored using the adult version of the EQ-5D either exclusively (n = 16) or alongside other utility measures and direct elicitation methods of patient own utility (n = 17), although 7 did not use the EQ-5D. Eight assessments used both the EQ-5D child- and adolescent-specific preference-based measures: Health Utilities Index Mark 2 (n = 6), child- and adolescent-specific preference-based measure for atopic dermatitis (n = 1), and youth version of the EQ-5D (EQ-5D-Y) valued using the adult EQ-5D value set (n = 1) or generated using mapping and valued using the adult EQ-5D value set (n = 2). Some cost-utility analyses used age adjustment (utility subtractions, weights, and published mapping formulae) from the adult EQ-5D UK population norms to reflect the general population or disease-free health for children and adolescents (n = 9), and 1 assessment assumed full health (utility value of 1).

CONCLUSION

The review found limited use of child and adolescent population-specific measures to generate health state utility values for children and adolescents in NICE technology assessments. Often assessments involve the use of an adult-specific measure to reflect the health of children.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Patiromer in Combination with Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Inhibitors for Chronic Kidney Disease in Sweden

OBJECTIVES

Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are commonly treated with renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi) in order to delay progression of renal disease. However, research has shown that RAASi in CKD patients increases hyperkalaemia (HK) prevalence, which leads to RAASi discontinuation or dose reduction with the loss of benefits on the kidney. Patiromer is a novel therapy for HK treatment and may enable patients to remain on their RAASi regimen. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of patiromer from a Swedish healthcare perspective.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to evaluate the economic outcomes of patiromer versus no patiromer in HK patients with stage 3-4 CKD taking RAASi. The model consisted of six health states reflecting disease progression and hospitalisations. The analysis mainly considered clinical data from the OPAL-HK trial and national costs. The main outcomes of interest were incremental costs (euro [EUR] 2016) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), discounted at 3%, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Extensive uncertainty analyses were performed.

RESULTS

In comparison to no patiromer, a patiromer patient gained 0.14 QALYs and an incremental cost of EUR 6109 (Swedish krona [SEK] 57,850), yielding an ICER of EUR 43,307 (SEK 410,072)/QALY gained. The results were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of EUR 52,804 (SEK 500,000)/QALY, patiromer had a 50% chance of being cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that patiromer may demonstrate value for money in Swedish patients with stage 3-4 CKD, by enabling RAASi treatment. However, there is a considerable degree of uncertainty.

Health utility estimation in children and adolescents: a review of health technology assessments

Objective: Health utility estimates for children and adolescents are critical for cost-utility analyses informing health technology assessment (HTA) authorities' decisions governing access to pediatric treatments. However, in a recent review, only 29% of published pediatric cost-utility models used a utility measure validated for children. We examined utility estimates used in pediatric HTAs.Methods: A targeted review of pediatric HTAs was performed, focusing on agencies reporting utility estimate sources and methods.Results: Searches identified 11 HTAs in pediatric indications and five in mixed populations with separate analyses for adults and children. Among 13 appraisals reporting methodological detail, five used pediatric utility estimates (based on the Health Utilities Index [HUI], n = 3; Atopic Dermatitis Quality of Life [ADQoL], n = 1; or mapping, n = 1). Issues were identified with mapping, use of adult data for some health states, and assumptions about ADQoL responses. In the remaining eight appraisals, adult utility estimates were applied. Caregiver utility was included in two of 16 appraisals.Conclusions: Only 38% of pediatric HTAs reviewed used pediatric utility estimates, and HTA authorities raised concerns about these data in many cases; only 12% of HTAs included caregiver utility. Although several preference-based utility measures are available for pediatric populations, limited data and guidance on selection of measures are available. When estimating pediatric utility weights, alternative measures should be reviewed for suitability given the model population and health condition. Pediatric and adult utility estimates should be applied appropriately as patients age over time, and caregiver and/or family member utility should be included, where relevant. Gaps exist in utility measures for children aged <4 years and caregivers.

Cost-Effectiveness of the Manchester Approach to Identifying Lynch Syndrome in Women with Endometrial Cancer

Lynch syndrome (LS) is a hereditary cancer syndrome responsible for 3% of all endometrial cancer and 5% in those aged under 70 years. It is unclear whether universal testing for LS in endometrial cancer patients would be cost-effective. The Manchester approach to identifying LS in endometrial cancer patients uses immunohistochemistry (IHC) to detect mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency, incorporates testing for MLH1 promoter hypermethylation, and incorporates genetic testing for pathogenic MMR variants. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the Manchester approach on the basis of primary research data from clinical practice in Manchester. The Proportion of Endometrial Tumours Associated with Lynch Syndrome (PETALS) study informed estimates of diagnostic performances for a number of different strategies. A recent microcosting study was adapted and was used to estimate diagnostic costs. A Markov model was used to predict long-term costs and health outcomes (measured in quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) for individuals and their relatives. Bootstrapping and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were used to estimate the uncertainty in cost-effectiveness. The Manchester approach dominated other reflex testing strategies when considering diagnostic costs and Lynch syndrome cases identified. When considering long-term costs and QALYs the Manchester approach was the optimal strategy, costing £5459 per QALY gained (compared to thresholds of £20,000 to £30,000 per QALY commonly used in the National Health Service (NHS)). Cost-effectiveness is not an argument for restricting testing to younger patients or those with a strong family history. Universal testing for Lynch syndrome in endometrial cancer patients is expected to be cost-effective in the U.K. (NHS), and the Manchester approach is expected to be the optimal testing strategy.

Health and economic consequences of applying the United States' PM2.5 automobile emission standards to other nations: a case study of France and Italy

OBJECTIVES

The US has among the world's strictest automobile emission standards, but it is now loosening them. It is unclear where a nation should draw the line between the associated cost burden imposed by regulations and the broader societal benefits associated with having cleaner air. Our study examines the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of introducing stricter vehicle emission standards in France and Italy.

STUDY DESIGN

Quasi-experimental study.

METHODS

We used cost-effectiveness modeling to measure the incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost (Euros) of adopting more stringent US vehicle emission standards for PM2.5 in France and Italy.

RESULTS

Adopting Obama era US vehicle emission standards would likely save money and lives for both the French and Italian populations. In France, adopting US emission standards would save €1000 and increase QALYs by 0.04 per capita. In Italy, the stricter standards would save €3000 and increase QALYs by 0.31. The results remain robust in both the sensitivity analysis and probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model.

CONCLUSIONS

Adopting more stringent emission standards in France and Italy would save money and lives.

Prophylactic removal of impacted mandibular third molars: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Impacted third molars are third molars that are blocked, by soft tissue or bone, from fully erupting through the gum. This can cause pain and disease. The treatment options for people with impacted third molars are removal or retention with standard care. If there are pathological changes, the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance states that the impacted third molar should be removed.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to appraise the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the prophylactic removal of impacted mandibular third molars compared with retention of, and standard care for, impacted third molars.

METHODS

Five electronic databases were searched (1999 to 29 April 2016) to identify relevant evidence [The Cochrane Library (searched 4 April 2016 and 29 April 2016), MEDLINE (searched 4 April 2016 and 29 April 2016), EMBASE (searched 4 April 2016 and 29 April 2016), EconLit (searched 4 April 2016 and 29 April 2016) and NHS Economic Evaluation Database (searched 4 April 2016)]. Studies that compared the prophylactic removal of impacted mandibular third molars with retention and standard care or studies that assessed the outcomes from either approach were included. The clinical outcomes considered were pathology associated with retention, post-operative complications following extraction and adverse effects of treatment. Cost-effectiveness outcomes included UK costs and health-related quality-of-life measures. In addition, the assessment group constructed a de novo economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of a prophylactic removal strategy with that of retention and standard care.

RESULTS

The clinical review identified four cohort studies and nine systematic reviews. In the two studies that reported on surgical complications, no serious complications were reported. Pathological changes due to retention of asymptomatic impacted mandibular third molars were reported by three studies. In these studies, the extraction rate for retained impacted mandibular third molars varied from 5.5% to 31.4%; this variation can be explained by the differing follow-up periods (i.e. 1 and 5 years). The findings from this review are consistent with the findings from previous systematic reviews. Two published cost-effectiveness studies were identified. The authors of both studies concluded that, to their knowledge, there is currently no economic evidence to support the prophylactic removal of impacted mandibular third molars. The results generated by the assessment group's lifetime economic model indicated that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year gained for the comparison of a prophylactic removal strategy with a retention and standard care strategy is £11,741 for people aged 20 years with asymptomatic impacted mandibular third molars. The incremental cost per person associated with prophylactic extraction is £55.71, with an incremental quality-adjusted life-year gain of 0.005 per person. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year gained was found to be robust when a range of sensitivity and scenario analyses were carried out.

LIMITATIONS

Limitations of the study included that no head-to-head trials comparing the effectiveness of prophylactic removal of impacted mandibular third molars with retention and standard care were identified with the assessment group model that was built on observational data. Utility data on impacted mandibular third molars and their symptoms are lacking.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence comparing the prophylactic removal of impacted mandibular third molars with retention and standard care is very limited. However, the results from an exploratory assessment group model, which uses available evidence on symptom development and extraction rates of retained impacted mandibular third molars, suggest that prophylactic removal may be the more cost-effective strategy.

FUTURE WORK

Effectiveness evidence is lacking. Head-to-head trials comparing the prophylactic removal of trouble-free impacted mandibular third molars with retention and watchful waiting are required. If this is not possible, routine clinical data, using common definitions and outcome reporting methods, should be collected.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016037776.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Computerised speech and language therapy or attention control added to usual care for people with long-term post-stroke aphasia: the Big CACTUS three-arm RCT

BACKGROUND

People with aphasia may improve their communication with speech and language therapy many months/years after stroke. However, NHS speech and language therapy reduces in availability over time post stroke.

OBJECTIVE

This trial evaluated the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of self-managed computerised speech and language therapy to provide additional therapy.

DESIGN

A pragmatic, superiority, single-blind, parallel-group, individually randomised (stratified block randomisation, stratified by word-finding severity and site) adjunct trial.

SETTING

Twenty-one UK NHS speech and language therapy departments.

PARTICIPANTS

People with post-stroke aphasia (diagnosed by a speech and language therapist) with long-standing (> 4 months) word-finding difficulties.

INTERVENTIONS

The groups were (1) usual care; (2) daily self-managed computerised word-finding therapy tailored by speech and language therapists and supported by volunteers/speech and language therapy assistants for 6 months plus usual care (computerised speech and language therapy); and (3) activity/attention control (completion of puzzles and receipt of telephone calls from a researcher for 6 months) plus usual care.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Co-primary outcomes - change in ability to find treated words of personal relevance in a bespoke naming test (impairment) and change in functional communication in conversation rated on the activity scale of the Therapy Outcome Measures (activity) 6 months after randomisation. A key secondary outcome was participant-rated perception of communication and quality of life using the Communication Outcomes After Stroke questionnaire at 6 months. Outcomes were assessed by speech and language therapists using standardised procedures. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using treatment costs and an accessible EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version, measuring quality-adjusted life-years.

RESULTS

A total of 818 patients were assessed for eligibility and 278 participants were randomised between October 2014 and August 2016. A total of 240 participants (86 usual care, 83 computerised speech and language therapy, 71 attention control) contributed to modified intention-to-treat analysis at 6 months. The mean improvements in word-finding were 1.1% (standard deviation 11.2%) for usual care, 16.4% (standard deviation 15.3%) for computerised speech and language therapy and 2.4% (standard deviation 8.8%) for attention control. Computerised speech and language therapy improved word-finding 16.2% more than usual care did (95% confidence interval 12.7% to 19.6%; p < 0.0001) and 14.4% more than attention control did (95% confidence interval 10.8% to 18.1%). Most of this effect was maintained at 12 months (n = 219); the mean differences in change in word-finding score were 12.7% (95% confidence interval 8.7% to 16.7%) higher in the computerised speech and language therapy group (n = 74) than in the usual-care group (n = 84) and 9.3% (95% confidence interval 4.8% to 13.7%) higher in the computerised speech and language therapy group than in the attention control group (n = 61). Computerised speech and language therapy did not show significant improvements on the Therapy Outcome Measures or Communication Outcomes After Stroke scale compared with usual care or attention control. Primary cost-effectiveness analysis estimated an incremental cost per participant of £732.73 (95% credible interval £674.23 to £798.05). The incremental quality-adjusted life-year gain was 0.017 for computerised speech and language therapy compared with usual care, but its direction was uncertain (95% credible interval -0.05 to 0.10), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £42,686 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. For mild and moderate word-finding difficulty subgroups, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were £22,371 and £28,898 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively, for computerised speech and language therapy compared with usual care.

LIMITATIONS

This trial excluded non-English-language speakers, the accessible EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version, was not validated and the measurement of attention control fidelity was limited.

CONCLUSIONS

Computerised speech and language therapy enabled additional self-managed speech and language therapy, contributing to significant improvement in finding personally relevant words (as specifically targeted by computerised speech and language therapy) long term post stroke. Gains did not lead to improvements in conversation or quality of life. Cost-effectiveness is uncertain owing to uncertainty around the quality-adjusted life-year gain, but computerised speech and language therapy may be more cost-effective for participants with mild and moderate word-finding difficulties. Exploring ways of helping people with aphasia to use new words in functional communication contexts is a priority.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN68798818.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 19. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. The Tavistock Trust for Aphasia provided additional support to enable people in the control groups to experience the intervention after the trial had ended.

Detachable low dead space syringes for the prevention of hepatitis C among people who inject drugs in Bristol, UK: an economic evaluation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Traditional detachable syringes used by people who inject drugs (PWID) retain larger volumes of blood when the plunger is depressed than syringes with fixed needles-referred to as high (HDSS) and low dead space syringes (LDSS), respectively. Evidence suggests that using HDSS may result in greater hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk than LDSS. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of an intervention to introduce detachable LDSS in a needle and syringe programme (NSP).

DESIGN

HCV transmission and disease progression model with cost-effectiveness analysis using a health-care perspective. Detachable LDSS are associated with increased costs (£0.008) per syringe, yearly staff training costs (£536) and an estimated decreased risk (by 47.5%) of HCV transmission compared with HDSS. The intervention was modelled for 10 years, with costs and health benefits (quality-adjusted life-years: QALYs) tracked over 50 years.

SETTING

Bristol, UK.

PARTICIPANTS AND CASES

PWID attending NSP.

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

Gradual replacement of HDSS at NSP, with 8, 58 and 95% of HDSS being replaced by detachable LDSS in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. Comparator was continuing use of HDSS.

MEASUREMENTS

Net monetary benefit. Benefits were measured in QALYs.

FINDINGS

Introducing detachable LDSS was associated with a small increase in intervention costs (£21 717) compared with not introducing detachable LDSS, but considerable savings in HCV-related treatment and care costs (£4 138 118). Overall cost savings were £4 116 401 over 50 years and QALY gains were 1000, with an estimated 30% reduction in new infections over the 10-year intervention period. In all sensitivity analyses, detachable LDSS resulted in cost savings and additional QALYs. Threshold analyses suggested that detachable LDSS would need to reduce HCV transmission risk of HDSS by 0.26% to be cost-saving and 0.04% to be cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Replacing high dead space syringes with detachable low dead space syringes in needle and syringe programmes in the United Kingdom is likely to be a cost-saving approach for reducing hepatitis C virus transmission.

Oral splints for patients with temporomandibular disorders or bruxism: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Splints are a non-invasive, reversible management option for temporomandibular disorders or bruxism. The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of splints remain uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of splints for patients with temporomandibular disorders or bruxism. This evidence synthesis compared (1) all types of splint versus no/minimal treatment/control splints and (2) prefabricated versus custom-made splints, for the primary outcomes, which were pain (temporomandibular disorders) and tooth wear (bruxism).

REVIEW METHODS

Four databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, were searched from inception until 1 October 2018 for randomised clinical trials. The searches were conducted on 1 October 2018. Cochrane review methods (including risk of bias) were used for the systematic review. Standardised mean differences were pooled for the primary outcome of pain, using random-effects models in temporomandibular disorder patients. A Markov cohort, state-transition model, populated using current pain and Characteristic Pain Intensity data, was used to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for splints compared with no splint, from an NHS perspective over a lifetime horizon. A value-of-information analysis identified future research priorities.

RESULTS

Fifty-two trials were included in the systematic review. The evidence identified was of very low quality with unclear reporting by temporomandibular disorder subtype. When all subtypes were pooled into one global temporomandibular disorder group, there was no evidence that splints reduced pain [standardised mean difference (at up to 3 months) -0.18, 95% confidence interval -0.42 to 0.06; substantial heterogeneity] when compared with no splints or a minimal intervention. There was no evidence that other outcomes, including temporomandibular joint noises, decreased mouth-opening, and quality of life, improved when using splints. Adverse events were generally not reported, but seemed infrequent when reported. The most plausible base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was uncertain and driven by the lack of clinical effectiveness evidence. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showed splints becoming more cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of ≈£6000, but the probability never exceeded 60% at higher levels of willingness to pay. Results were sensitive to longer-term extrapolation assumptions. A value-of-information analysis indicated that further research is required. There were no studies measuring tooth wear in patients with bruxism. One small study looked at pain and found a reduction in the splint group [mean difference (0-10 scale) -2.01, 95% CI -1.40 to -2.62; very low-quality evidence]. As there was no evidence of a difference between splints and no splints, the second objective became irrelevant.

LIMITATIONS

There was a large variation in the diagnostic criteria, splint types and outcome measures used and reported. Sensitivity analyses based on these limitations did not indicate a reduction in pain.

CONCLUSIONS

The very low-quality evidence identified did not demonstrate that splints reduced pain in temporomandibular disorders as a group of conditions. There is insufficient evidence to determine whether or not splints reduce tooth wear in patients with bruxism. There remains substantial uncertainty surrounding the most plausible incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

FUTURE WORK

There is a need for well-conducted trials to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of splints in patients with carefully diagnosed and subtyped temporomandibular disorders, and patients with bruxism, using agreed measures of pain and tooth wear.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017068512.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 7. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Implantable cardiac monitors to detect atrial fibrillation after cryptogenic stroke: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Cryptogenic stroke is a stroke for which no cause is identified after standard diagnostic tests. Long-term implantable cardiac monitors may be better at diagnosing atrial fibrillation and provide an opportunity to reduce the risk of stroke recurrence with anticoagulants.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to assess the diagnostic test accuracy, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three implantable monitors [BioMonitor 2-AF™ (Biotronik SE & Co. KG, Berlin, Germany), Confirm Rx™ (Abbott Laboratories, Lake Bluff, IL, USA) and Reveal LINQ™ (Medtronic plc, Minneapolis, MN, USA)] in patients who have had a cryptogenic stroke and for whom no atrial fibrillation is detected after 24 hours of external electrocardiographic monitoring.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and Health Technology Assessment databases were searched from inception until September 2018.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review was undertaken. Two reviewers agreed on studies for inclusion and performed quality assessment using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2.0 tool. Results were discussed narratively because there were insufficient data for synthesis. A two-stage de novo economic model was developed: (1) a short-term patient flow model to identify cryptogenic stroke patients who have had atrial fibrillation detected and been prescribed anticoagulation treatment (rather than remaining on antiplatelet treatment) and (2) a long-term Markov model that captured the lifetime costs and benefits of patients on either anticoagulation or antiplatelet treatment.

RESULTS

One randomised controlled trial, Cryptogenic Stroke and underlying Atrial Fibrillation (CRYSTAL-AF) (Sanna T, Diener HC, Passman RS, Di Lazzaro V, Bernstein RA, Morillo CA, et al. Cryptogenic stroke and underlying atrial fibrillation. N Engl J Med 2014;370:2478-86), was identified, and no diagnostic test accuracy study was identified. The CRYSTAL-AF trial compared the Reveal™ XT (a Reveal LINQ predecessor) (Medtronic plc) monitor with standard of care monitoring. Twenty-six single-arm observational studies for the Reveal devices were also identified. The only data for BioMonitor 2-AF or Confirm Rx were from mixed population studies supplied by the companies. Atrial fibrillation detection in the CRYSTAL-AF trial was higher with the Reveal XT than with standard monitoring at all time points. By 36 months, atrial fibrillation was detected in 19% of patients with an implantable cardiac monitor and in 2.3% of patients receiving conventional follow-up. The 26 observational studies demonstrated that, even in a cryptogenic stroke population, atrial fibrillation detection rates are highly variable and most cases are asymptomatic; therefore, they probably would not have been picked up without an implantable cardiac monitor. Device-related adverse events, such as pain and infection, were low in all studies. The de novo economic model produced incremental cost effectiveness ratios comparing implantable cardiac monitors with standard of care monitoring to detect atrial fibrillation in cryptogenic stroke patients based on data for the Reveal XT device, which can be related to Reveal LINQ. The BioMonitor 2-AF and Confirm RX were included in the analysis by making a strong assumption of equivalence with Reveal LINQ. The results indicate that implantable cardiac monitors could be considered cost-effective at a £20,000-30,000 threshold. When each device is compared incrementally, BioMonitor 2-AF dominates Reveal LINQ and Confirm RX.

LIMITATIONS

The cost-effectiveness analysis for implantable cardiac monitors is based on a strong assumption of clinical equivalence and should be interpreted with caution.

CONCLUSIONS

All three implantable cardiac monitors could be considered cost-effective at a £20,000-30,000 threshold, compared with standard of care monitoring, for cryptogenic stroke patients with no atrial fibrillation detected after 24 hours of external electrocardiographic monitoring; however, further clinical studies are required to confirm their efficacy in cryptogenic stroke patients.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018109216.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A modelling-based economic evaluation of primary-care-based fall-risk screening followed by fall-prevention intervention: a cohort-based Markov model stratified by older age groups

Background

fall-risk assessment with fall-prevention intervention referral for at-risk groups to avoid falls could be cost-effective from a care-payer perspective.

Aims

to model the cost-effectiveness of a fall-risk assessment (QTUG compared to TUG) with referral to one of four fall-prevention interventions (Otago, FaME, Tai Chi, home safety assessment and modification) compared to no care pathway, when the decision to screen is based on older age in a primary care setting for community-dwelling people.

Methods

a cohort-based, decision analytic Markov model was stratified by five age groupings (65–70, 70–75, 65–89, 70–89 and 75–89) to estimate cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Costs included fall-risk assessment, fall-prevention intervention and downstream resource use (e.g. inpatient and care home admission). Uncertainty was explored using univariate, bivariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

Results

screening with QTUG dominates (>QALYs; <costs) screening with TUG irrespective of subsequent fall-prevention intervention. The QTUG-based care pathways relative to no care pathway have a high probability of cost-effectiveness in those aged 75–89 (>85%), relative to those aged 70–74 (~10 < 30%) or 65–69 (<10%). In the older age group, only a 10% referral uptake is required for the QTUG with FaME or Otago modelled care pathways to remain cost-effective.

Conclusion

the highest probability of cost-effectiveness observed was a care pathway incorporating QTUG with FaME in those aged 75–89. Although the model does not fully represent current NICE Falls guidance, decision makers should still give careful consideration to implementing the aforementioned care pathway due to the modelled high probability of cost-effectiveness.

Use of insertable cardiac monitors for the detection of atrial fibrillation in patients with cryptogenic stroke in the United States is cost-effective

Objectives: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and a major marker of ischemic stroke risk. Early detection is crucial and, once diagnosed, anticoagulation therapy can be initiated to reduce stroke risk. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of employing an insertable cardiac monitor (ICM), BIOMONITOR, for the detection of AF compared to standard of care (SoC) ECG and Holter monitoring in patients with cryptogenic stroke, that is, stroke of unknown origin and where paroxysmal, silent AF is suspected. Materials and methods: A Markov model was developed which consisted of five main health states reflecting the potential lifetime evolution of the AF disease: post cryptogenic stroke (index event), subsequent mild, moderate and severe stroke, and death. Sub-states were included to track a patient's AF diagnostic status and the use of antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy. AF detection was assumed to result in a treatment switch from aspirin to anticoagulants, except among those with a history of major bleeding. Detection yield and accuracy, clinical actions and treatment effects were derived from the literature and validated by an expert clinician. All relevant costs from a US Medicare perspective were included. Results and conclusions: An ICM-based strategy was associated with a reduction of 37 secondary ischemic strokes per 1000 patients monitored compared with SoC. Total per-patient costs with an ICM were higher (US$90,052 vs. US$85,157) although stroke-related costs were reduced. The use of an ICM was associated with a base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$18,487 per life year gained compared with SoC and US$25,098 per quality-adjusted life year gained, below established willingness-to-pay thresholds. The conclusions were found to be robust over a range of input values. From a US Medicare perspective the use of a BIOMONITOR ICM represents a cost-effective diagnostic strategy for patients with cryptogenic stroke and suspected AF.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of reflex testing for Lynch syndrome in women with endometrial cancer in the UK setting

Background

Lynch syndrome is a hereditary cancer syndrome caused by constitutional pathogenic variants in the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) system, leading to increased risk of colorectal, endometrial and other cancers. The study aimed to identify the incremental costs and consequences of strategies to identify Lynch syndrome in women with endometrial cancer.

Methods

A decision-analytic model was developed to evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of reflex testing strategies for identifying Lynch syndrome in women with endometrial cancer taking the NHS perspective and a lifetime horizon. Model input parameters were sourced from various published sources. Consequences were measured using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). A cost-effectiveness threshold of £20 000/QALY was used.

Results

Reflex testing for Lynch syndrome using MMR immunohistochemistry and MLH1 methylation testing was cost-effective versus no testing, costing £14 200 per QALY gained. There was uncertainty due to parameter imprecision, with an estimated 42% chance this strategy is not cost-effective compared with no testing. Age had a significant impact on cost-effectiveness, with testing not predicted to be cost-effective in patients aged 65 years and over.

Conclusions

Testing for Lynch syndrome in younger women with endometrial cancer using MMR immunohistochemistry and MLH1 methylation testing may be cost-effective. Age cut-offs may be controversial and adversely affect implementation.

Dinutuximab Beta for Treating Neuroblastoma: An Evidence Review Group and Decision Support Unit Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal

As part of its Single Technology Appraisal (STA) process, the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer (EUSA Pharma) of dinutuximab beta (Qarziba^®) to submit evidence of its clinical and cost effectiveness for treating neuroblastoma. The BMJ Technology Assessment Group (BMJ-TAG) was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG), reviewing the submission from the company. The Decision Support Unit (DSU) was commissioned to review additional evidence submitted by the company and to undertake further analyses. This article presents the critical review of the company's submissions by the ERG and DSU, further analyses undertaken by the DSU, and the outcome of the NICE guidance. The clinical effectiveness for dinutuximab beta was derived from a phase III randomised controlled trial (RCT) that assessed the safety and efficacy of the addition of interleukin (IL)-2 to dinutuximab beta plus isotretinoin. This trial did not inform the relative effectiveness of dinutuximab beta versus isotretinoin alone, which was established practice in the UK for maintenance treatment. In the absence of direct evidence, the company initially conducted a naïve indirect treatment comparison against a historical control, and later performed a matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) against the isotretinoin arm of an RCT comparing dinutuximab alpha and isotretinoin. The company submitted a partitioned survival analysis model that calculated the incremental cost effectiveness of dinutuximab beta versus isotretinoin. The company's original incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £22,338 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. However, the ERG were concerned that the company's ICER was not suitable for decision making, and thus carried out initial exploratory analysis as a first step to overcome the naïve estimation of treatment effectiveness in the model. The ERG's analysis estimated an ICER of £111,858 per QALY gained. In their revised analysis incorporating the MAIC and other changes as requested by the appraisal committee, the company's ICER was £24,661 per QALY gained. When the DSU incorporated longer-term isotretinoin data and made corrections to the model, the ICER increased to between £62,886 and £87,164 per QALY gained depending on the choice of survival model. A confidential Patient Access Scheme (PAS) decreased the ICERs. The ICERs with the PAS were over £40,000 per QALY gained, but the NICE committee additionally considered the patient population and its size, the disease severity, the potential for significant survival benefit and uncaptured health benefits, and recommended dinutuximab beta as a treatment option, subject to the company providing the agreed discount in the PAS.

A nurse-led, preventive, psychological intervention to reduce PTSD symptom severity in critically ill patients: the POPPI feasibility study and cluster RCT

Background

High numbers of patients experience severe acute stress in critical care units. Acute stress has been linked to post-critical care psychological morbidity, including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Previously, a preventive, complex psychological intervention [Psychological Outcomes following a nurse-led Preventative Psychological Intervention for critically ill patients (POPPI)] was developed by this research team, to be led by nurses, to reduce the development of PTSD symptom severity at 6 months.

Objectives

The objectives were to (1) standardise and refine the POPPI intervention, and, if feasible, (2) evaluate it in a cluster randomised clinical trial (RCT).

Design

Two designs were used – (1) two feasibility studies to test the delivery and acceptability (to patients and staff) of the intervention, education package and support tools, and to test the trial procedures (i.e. recruitment and retention), and (2) a multicentre, parallel-group, cluster RCT with a baseline period and staggered roll-out of the intervention.

Setting

This study was set in NHS adult, general critical care units.

Participants

The participants were adult patients who were > 48 hours in a critical care unit, receiving level 3 care and able to consent.

Interventions

The intervention comprised three elements – (1) creating a therapeutic environment in critical care, (2) three stress support sessions for patients identified as acutely stressed and (3) a relaxation and recovery programme for patients identified as acutely stressed.

Main outcome measures

Primary outcome – patient-reported symptom severity using the PTSD Symptom Scale – Self Report (PSS-SR) questionnaire (to measure clinical effectiveness) and incremental costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and net monetary benefit at 6 months (to measure cost-effectiveness). Secondary outcomes – days alive and free from sedation to day 30; duration of critical care unit stay; PSS-SR score of > 18 points; depression, anxiety and health-related quality of life at 6 months; and lifetime cost-effectiveness.

Results

(1) A total of 127 participants were recruited to the intervention feasibility study from two sites and 86 were recruited to the RCT procedures feasibility study from another two sites. The education package, support tools and intervention were refined. (2) A total of 24 sites were randomised to the intervention or control arms. A total of 1458 participants were recruited. Twelve sites delivered the intervention during the intervention period: > 80% of patients received two or more stress support sessions and all 12 sites achieved the target of > 80% of clinical staff completing the POPPI online training. There was, however, variation in delivery across sites. There was little difference between baseline and intervention periods in the development of PTSD symptom severity (measured by mean PSS-SR score) at 6 months for surviving patients in either the intervention or the control group: treatment effect estimate −0.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) −2.58 to 2.52; p = 0.98. On average, the intervention decreased costs and slightly improved QALYs, leading to a positive incremental net benefit at 6 months (£835, 95% CI −£4322 to £5992), but with considerable statistical uncertainty surrounding these results. There were no significant differences between the groups in any of the secondary outcomes or in the prespecified subgroup analyses.

Limitations

There was a risk of bias because different consent processes were used and as a result of the lack of blinding, which was mitigated as far as possible within the study design. The intervention started later than anticipated. Patients were not routinely monitored for delirium.

Conclusions

Among level 3 patients who stayed > 48 hours in critical care, the delivery of a preventive, complex psychological intervention, led by nurses, did not reduce the development of PTSD symptom severity at 6 months, when compared with usual care.

Future work

Prior to development and evaluation of subsequent psychological interventions, there is much to learn from post hoc analyses of the cluster RCT rich quantitative and qualitative data.

Trial registration

This trial is registered as ISRCTN61088114 and ISRCTN53448131.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 23, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Tofacitinib for the treatment of moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis: a systematic review, network meta-analysis and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In the UK, treatments for patients with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis who have an inadequate response to conventional therapies comprise four biological therapies-the tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) agents adalimumab, golimumab and infliximab and the anti-integrin vedolizumab-and an orally administered small molecule therapy, tofacitinib. However, there have been few head-to-head studies of these therapies. This study aimed to compare the clinical and cost-effectiveness of tofacitinib with biological therapies.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted to identify all relevant randomised controlled trial (RCT) evidence. Clinical response, clinical remission and serious infection rates were synthesised using network meta-analysis (NMA). The results were used to compare the cost-effectiveness of tofacitinib and biologics with conventional therapy, using a Markov model, which incorporated lifetime costs and consequences of treatment from a UK National Health Service perspective. Analyses were conducted separately for TNFi-naïve and TNFi-exposed populations.

RESULTS

Seventeen RCTs were used in the NMAs. There were no statistically significant differences among biological therapies and tofacitinib for either TNFi-naïve or TNFi-exposed patients. In TNFi-naïve patients, all therapies were more efficacious than placebo. In TNFi-exposed patients, only tofacitinib was significantly more efficacious than placebo as induction therapy, and only tofacitinib and vedolizumab were significantly more efficacious than placebo as maintenance therapies. There were no significant differences in serious infection rates among therapies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for tofacitinib versus conventional therapy were £21 338 and £22 816 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in the TNFi-naïve and TNFi-exposed populations, respectively. TNFi therapies were dominated or extendedly dominated in both populations. Compared with vedolizumab, tofacitinib was associated with a similar number of QALYs, at a lower cost.

CONCLUSION

Tofacitinib is an efficacious treatment for moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis and is likely to be a cost-effective use of NHS resources.

A New Method for Model-Based Health Economic Evaluation Utilizing and Extending Moment-Generating Functions

Background. Health economic evaluations frequently include projections for lifetime costs and health effects using modeling frameworks such as Markov modeling or discrete event simulation (DES). Markov models typically cannot represent events whose risk is determined by the length of time spent in state (sojourn time) without the use of tunnel states. DES is very flexible but introduces Monte Carlo variation, which can significantly limit the complexity of model analyses. Methods. We present a new methodological framework for health economic modeling that is based on, and extends, the concept of moment-generating functions (MGFs) for time-to-event random variables. When future costs and health effects are discounted, MGFs can be used to very efficiently calculate the total discounted life-years spent in a series of health states. Competing risks are incorporated into the method. This method can also be used to calculate discounted costs and health effects when these payoffs are constant per unit time, one-off, or exponential with regard to time. MGFs are extended to additionally support costs and health effects which are polynomial with regard to time (as in a commonly used model of population norms for EQ-5D utility). Worked Example. A worked example is used to demonstrate the application of the new method in practice and to compare it with Markov modeling and DES. Results are compared in terms of convergence and accuracy, and computation times are compared. R code and an Excel workbook are provided. Conclusions. The MGF method can be applied to health economic evaluations in the place of Markov modeling or DES and has certain advantages over both.

Model-based evaluation of the long-term cost-effectiveness of systematic case-finding for COPD in primary care

Introduction

‘One-off’ systematic case-finding for COPD using a respiratory screening questionnaire is more effective and cost-effective than routine care at identifying new cases. However, it is not known whether early diagnosis and treatment is beneficial in the longer term. We estimated the long-term cost-effectiveness of a regular case-finding programme in primary care.

Methods

A Markov decision analytic model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of a 3-yearly systematic case-finding programme targeted to ever smokers aged ≥50 years with the current routine diagnostic process in UK primary care. Patient-level data on case-finding pathways was obtained from a large randomised controlled trial. Information on the natural history of COPD and treatment effects was obtained from a linked COPD cohort, UK primary care database and published literature. The discounted lifetime cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was calculated from a health service perspective.

Results

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of systematic case-finding versus current care was £16 596 per additional QALY gained, with a 78% probability of cost-effectiveness at a £20 000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. The base case result was robust to multiple one-way sensitivity analyses. The main drivers were response rate to the initial screening questionnaire and attendance rate for the confirmatory spirometry test.

Discussion

Regular systematic case-finding for COPD using a screening questionnaire in primary care is likely to be cost-effective in the long-term despite uncertainties in treatment effectiveness. Further knowledge of the natural history of case-found patients and the effectiveness of their management will improve confidence to implement such an approach.

The importance of accounting for the uncertainty around the preference-based health-related quality-of-life measures value sets: a systematic review

Preference-based measures of health-related quality-of-life including, but not limited to, the EQ-5D, HUI2 and the SF-6D have been increasingly used in calculations of quality-adjusted life years for cost effectiveness analyses. However, the uncertainty around the measures' value sets is commonly ignored in economic evaluation. There are several types of uncertainties, including methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainties, with the latter being the focus of this review paper. The objective is to highlight the gap in the literature regarding the existence of uncertainty in the value sets, focusing mainly on the EQ-5D and SF-6D. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first systematic review revolving around uncertainty. After searching extensively for studies involving uncertainties in all preference-based measures, the results showed that uncertainty has been approached through different means, while parameter uncertainty has been ignored in most, if not all, cases. These findings suggest that uncertainty should be accounted for when using preference-based measures in economic evaluations. Ignoring this additional information could impact misleadingly on policy decisions.