MELD-XI: a rational approach to "sickest first" liver transplantation in cirrhotic patients requiring anticoagulant therapy

Implications of Alternative Hepatorenal Prognostic Scoring Systems in Acute Heart Failure (from DOSE-AHF and ROSE-AHF)

Because hepatic dysfunction is common in patients with heart failure (HF), the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) may be attractive for risk stratification. Although alternative scores such as the MELD-XI or MELD-Na may be more appropriate in HF populations, the short-term clinical implications of these in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) are unknown. The MELD-XI and MELD-Na were calculated at baseline in 453 patients with AHF in the DOSE-AHF and ROSE-AHF trials. The correlations and associations for each score with cardiorenal biomarkers, short-term end points at 72 hours including worsening renal function and clinical events to 60 days were determined. The median MELD-XI and MELD-Na was 16 and 17, respectively. Both were correlated with baseline cystatin C, amino terminus pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and plasma renin activity (p <0.003 for all). MELD-XI ≤16 and MELD-Na ≤17 were associated with a slight increase in cystatin C (p <0.02 for both), higher diuretic efficiency (p <0.001 for both), but not with change in global visual assessment scores (p >0.05 for both) at 72 hours. Neither score was associated with worsening renal function or worsening HF (p >0.05 for all). Similarly, both the MELD-XI and MELD-Na were not associated with 60-day death/any rehospitalization and 60-day death/HF rehospitalization in adjusted analyses when analyzes as a dichotomous or continuous variable (p >0.05 for all). In conclusion, the alternative MELD scores correlated with baseline cardiorenal biomarkers, and lower baseline MELD scoring was associated with higher diuretic efficiency and a slight increase in cystatin C through 72 hours. However, MELD-Na and MELD-XI were not predictive of 60-day clinical events.

Mortality Risk Stratification in Fontan Patients Who Underwent Heart Transplantation

The number of patients who require orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) for failing Fontan physiology continues to grow; however, the methods and tools to evaluate risk of OHT are limited. This study aimed to identify a set of preoperative variables and characteristics that were associated with a greater risk of postoperative mortality in patients who received OHT for failing Fontan physiology. Thirty-six Fontan patients were identified as having undergone OHT at University of California-Los Angeles Medical Center from 1991 to 2014. Data were collected retrospectively and analyzed. The primary end point was designated as postoperative mortality. After an average follow-up time of 3.5 years, 17 (44%) patients suffered postoperative mortality. Patient characteristics including (1) age <18 years at the time of OHT, (2) Fontan-OHT interval of <10 years, (3) systemic ventricular ejection fraction <20%, (4) moderate-to-severe atrioventricular valve insufficiency, (5) an elevated Model of End-stage Liver Disease, eXcluding INR score, or (6) need for advanced mechanical support before surgery were associated with an increased incidence of postoperative mortality. Using these risk factors, we present a theoretical framework to stratify risk of postoperative death in failing Fontan patients after OHT. In conclusion, a method such as this may aid in the transplantation evaluation and listing process of patients with failing Fontan physiology.

Serial cardiac MRIs in adult Fontan patients detect progressive hepatic enlargement and congestion

BACKGROUND

The progression of hepatic disease in adult Fontan patients is not well understood. They reviewed the experience with serial cardiac MRIs (CMR) in adult Fontan patients to determine if hepatic anatomic markers of prolonged Fontan exposure were present and if clinical predictors of progressive hepatic congestion could be identified.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A retrospective cohort study of all adult Fontan patients who had undergone at least two CMRs was performed. Hepatic dimensions, inferior vena cava (IVC) size, right hepatic vein (RHV) size and spleen diameter were determined from images acquired at the time of clinically guided CMR. Two radiologists with expertise in hepatic imaging graded congestion and liver size independently using post-gadolinium contrast sequences. Twenty-seven patients met inclusion criteria. Over a mean time of 5.1 years between CMRs, there was a significant increase in mean lateral-medial hepatic dimension (P = .005), mean RHV diameter (P = .004), and mean splenic diameter (P = .001). Serial post-gadolinium imaging was available in 25/27 (93%) patients of which 15/27 (55%) showed evidence of progressive hepatic congestion across serial studies. Progressive hepatic congestion was associated with single ventricle ejection fraction (SVEF) less than 50% (P = .008), and larger indexed end-diastolic (EDVI) and end-systolic volume (ESVI). RHV diameter was the only anatomic variable significantly correlated with time from Fontan completion (P = .004).

CONCLUSIONS

Serial CMRs detected progressive liver and hepatic vein enlargement in our cohort of adult Fontan patients over a mean time of 5.2 years. Progressive hepatic congestion occurs in a significant number of adult Fontan patients and may be associated with ventricular enlargement and decreased ventricular function by CMR.

Model for End-stage Liver Disease excluding INR (MELD-XI) score in critically ill patients: Easily available and of prognostic relevance

Purpose

MELD-XI, an adapted version of Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score excluding INR, was reported to predict outcomes e.g. in patients with acute heart failure. We aimed to evaluate MELD-XI in critically ill patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) for prognostic relevance.

Methods

A total of 4381 medical patients (66±14 years, 2862 male) admitted to a German ICU between 2004 and 2009 were included and retrospectively investigated. Admission diagnoses were e.g. myocardial infarction (n = 2034), sepsis (n = 694) and heart failure (n = 688). We divided our patients in two cohorts basing on their MELD-XI score and evaluated the MELD-XI score for its prognostic relevance regarding short-term and long-term survival. Optimal cut-offs were calculated by means of the Youden-Index.

Results

Patients with a MELD-XI score >12 had pronounced laboratory signs of organ failure and more comorbidities.

MELD-XI >12 was associated with an increase in short-term (27% vs 6%; HR 4.82, 95%CI 3.93–5.93; p<0.001) and long-term (HR 3.69, 95%CI 3.20–4.25; p<0.001) mortality. In a univariate Cox regression analysis for all patients MELD-XI was associated with increased long-term mortality (changes per score point: HR 1.06, 95%CI 1.05–1.07; p<0.001) and remained to be associated with increased mortality after correction in a multivariate regression analysis for renal failure, liver failure, lactate concentration, blood glucose concentration, oxygenation and white blood count (HR 1.04, 95%CI 1.03–1.06; p<0.001). Optimal cut-off for the overall cohort was 11 and varied remarkably depending on the admission diagnosis: myocardial infarction (9), pulmonary embolism (9), cardiopulmonary resuscitation (17) and pneumonia (17). We performed ROC-analysis and compared the AUC: SAPS2 (0.78, 95%CI 0.76–0.80; p<0.0001) and APACHE (0.76, 95%CI 0.74–0.78; p<0.003) score were superior to MELD-XI (0.71, 95%CI 0.68–0.73) for prediction of mortality.

Conclusions

The easily calculable MELD-XI score is a robust and reliable tool to predict both intra-ICU and long-term mortality in critically ill medical patients admitted to an ICU. Optimal cut-off values for MELD-XI scores seem to depend on the primary disease and need to be validated in future prospective studies. Compared to SAPS2 and APACHE score, MELD-XI lacks precision but might have comparable and even additive value, as it is easily available and independent of subjective values.

MELD-XI Scores Correlate with Post-Fontan Hepatic Biopsy Fibrosis Scores

We tested the hypothesis that MELD-XI values correlated with hepatic total fibrosis scores obtained in 70 predominately stable, post-Fontan patients that underwent elective cardiac catheterization. We found a statistically significant correlation between MELD-XI values and total fibrosis scores (p = 0.003). Thus, serial MELD-XI values may be an additional useful clinical parameter for follow-up care in post-Fontan patients.

Superior Mesenteric Arterial Flow Pattern is Associated with Major Adverse Events in Adults with Fontan Circulation

Factors contributing to the failure of Fontan circulation in adults are poorly understood. Reduced superior mesenteric arterial (SMA) flow has been identified in pediatric Fontan patients with protein-losing enteropathy. SMA flow has not been profiled in an adult Fontan population and its association with adverse events is unknown. We aimed to examine associations between SMA flow patterns and adverse events in adult Fontan patients. We performed a retrospective review of adult Fontan patients who underwent echocardiograms between 2008 and 2014. SMA Doppler data included peak systolic and end-diastolic velocity and velocity time integral (VTI). Systolic/diastolic (S/D) ratio and resistive index were calculated. The relationship between SMA flow parameters and major adverse events (death or transplantation) was examined using proportional hazard Cox regression analyses. Kaplan-Meyer analysis was conducted to construct survival curve of patients with and without adverse events. 91 post-Fontan adult patients (76 % systemic left ventricle, 20 % atriopulmonary Fontan, mean age 27.9 years) were analyzed. Adverse events occurred in nine patients (death = 4, transplant = 5). When compared with the non-event group, the event group had increased end-diastolic velocity [hazard ratio (HR) 1.5, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.1-1.8; p = 0.002], increased systolic VTI (HR 1.5, 95 % CI 1.1-2.2, p = 0.02), increased diastolic VTI (HR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.2-2.4, p = 0.004), decreased S/D velocity ratio (HR 0.32, 95 % CI 0.14-0.71, p = 0.006), decreased S/D VTI ratio (HR 0.76, 95 % CI 0.61-0.97, p = 0.02), and decreased resistive index (HR 0.29, 95 % CI 0.14-0.60, p = 0.0007). Increased end-diastolic velocity and VTI in mesenteric arterial flow, with lower systolic/diastolic ratio and resistive index, were associated with death and need for heart transplant in adult Fontan patients. The mesenteric hyperemic flow was also associated with clinical signs of portal venous outflow obstruction, suggesting the presence of vasodilatory state in end-stage adult Fontan circulation.

Vitamin D deficiency in patients with liver cirrhosis

There is ongoing evidence that vitamin D is related to the pathophysiology of cirrhosis. Although the incidence of vitamin D deficiency in chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis is strongly documented, its pathogenic association with advanced liver fibrosis remains controversial. There is evidence of a significant relation of 25(OH)D levels with the degree of liver dysfunction, considering that an inverse correlation of 25(OH)D levels with both Child-Pugh score and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease has been reported. In addition, vitamin D deficiency has been shown to increase the risk for overall mortality and infections in patients with cirrhosis. Vitamin D deficiency has been also associated with advanced stages of hepatocellular carcinoma and poor prognosis. Finally, there are studies suggesting that patients with chronic hepatitis C and normal vitamin D levels have higher virological response to treatment. However, there are not enough studies conducted in cirrhotic-only populations. The association between vitamin D and cirrhosis demonstrates a great potential for clinical application. The relation between vitamin D deficiency and the degree of liver function, degree of fibrosis and infectious complications could support its use as a prognostic index and a diagnostic tool.

Outcomes in Patients Bridged With Univentricular and Biventricular Devices in the Modern Era of Heart Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Biventricular support before orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) has been shown to adversely affect short- and long-term outcomes, but the comparative effect of support type is largely unknown. This study determined the comparative effect of univentricular and biventricular support on survival in bridged patients after OHT.

METHODS

The United Network of Organ Sharing database was queried for adult patients bridged to OHT with a univentricular (left ventricular assist device [LVAD]), biventricular (biventricular assist device [BiVAD]), or total artificial heart ([TAH]) device between 2004 and 2012. Unconditional and conditional survivals were compared with the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression models were constructed to determine the risk-adjusted influence of support type on death.

RESULTS

Of the 4,177 patients identified, 3,457 (20.4%), 575 (3.4%), and 145 (0.9%) were bridged with an LVAD, BiVAD, and TAH, respectively. Unadjusted 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year estimated survival was greater in LVAD patients than in the BiVAD and TAH cohorts. After risk-adjustment, BiVAD and TAH were associated with an increased risk of death at all time points. Unadjusted and adjusted 5-year survival, conditional on 1-year survival, was worse, however, in only TAH patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with biventricular failure bridged to OHT with a TAH or BiVAD experience worse short- and long-term survival comparison with those with an LVAD. This difference is most likely due to an increase in early death and depends on the type of BiVAD device implanted.

Should Patients with Hepatic Fibrosis Undergo LVAD Implantation: A Comparative Analysis

The purpose of our study was to evaluate outcomes in patients with hepatic fibrosis at the time of LVAD implantation. There were five (2.1%) patients with preoperative hepatic fibrosis with a mean age of 51.2 ± 16.8 years. Survival at 180 days was significantly reduced in patients with hepatic fibrosis, 40.0% vs. 88.0%; p = 0.001. Hepatic fibrosis was a significant independent predictor of mortality in multivariate analysis (hazard ratio [HR] 2.27, p = 0.036).

Catheter-measured Hemodynamics of Adult Fontan Circulation: Associations with Adverse Event and End-organ Dysfunctions

BACKGROUND

In heart failure, a high systemic vascular resistance index (SVRI), high central venous pressure (CVP), and low cardiac index (CI) predict poor outcomes. Conversely, late hemodynamic manifestations of failing Fontan circulation and associations with end-organ dysfunction are not well understood.

METHODS

A retrospective review of right-heart catheterization data of adult Fontan patients between 2002 and 2014 was conducted. Relationships between hemodynamic variables and serious adverse events (death or heart transplant) were examined using the Cox proportional hazard analysis. Correlations between the hemodynamic measurements and signs of end-organ dysfunction (MELD-XI, Child-Pugh, VAST score, estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]) were analyzed.

RESULTS

Sixty post-Fontan patients (85% systemic left ventricle, 40% atriopulmonary Fontan, mean age of 28 years, and mean time since Fontan operation of 21.9 years) were included. At baseline, those with an event were statistically younger, had lower transcutaneous oxygen saturations, were more likely to have an atriopulmonary Fontan, and were more likely to have a pacemaker. Eighteen experienced a cardiovascularly significant event. Using univariate analysis to compare the event and nonevent groups, mean CI was 2.8 ± 0.9 vs. 2.4 ± 0.5 L/min/m² (P = .004), and CVP was 18.6 ± 6.5 vs. 16.1 ± 4.3 mmHg (P = .03). However, the statistical significances did not persist in the multivariate model. Higher CVP and pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) were associated with higher MELD-XI and Child-Pugh scores, and the VAST score was only associated with PCWP.

CONCLUSIONS

Symptomatic adult Fontan patients who experienced an event manifested with a higher CI and CVP, although the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis did not yield any significant associations. The presences of hepatic dysfunction and portal venous outflow obstruction were associated with a higher CVP and PCWP. Renal dysfunction was prevalent but no statistically significant association between the hemodynamic measurements was identified, although trends toward a higher CVP and transpulmonary gradient were identified.

Model for end-stage liver disease excluding international normalized ratio (MELD-XI) score predicts heart transplant outcomes: Evidence from the registry of the United Network for Organ Sharing

BACKGROUND

Hepato-renal function is a valuable predictor of success after left ventricular assist device therapy and heart transplantation. Hence, we analyzed the importance of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease excluding international normalized ratio (MELD-XI) score to outcomes after heart transplant.

METHODS

Adults undergoing heart transplant from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database were identified (1994 to 2014). Individual MELD-XI scores were calculated; patients were stratified by MELD-XI quartiles (Q1 to Q4). Multivariate logistic regression and the Cox proportional hazard model were implemented to determine any association between MELD-XI scores, survival and other outcomes.

RESULTS

From 39,711 patients undergoing OHT during the study period, MELD-XI score [median 10.7 (interquartile range 7.0 to 14.4)] was calculated for 36,005 patients (76% male and 75% white, 34% Status 1A). Higher MELD-XI scores had higher rates of pre-transplant extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, intra-aortic balloon pump, inotrope use and mechanical ventilation (p < 0.001 for all). Adjusted long-term mortality (median follow-up 8.1 years) was associated with MELD-XI score (hazard ratio [HR] 1.021 [1.016 to 1.026], p < 0.001). The highest MELD-XI quartile was associated with an HR 1.364 [1.255 to 1.482] risk of mortality compared with Q1. MELD-XI score was also associated with increased post-transplant infections (adjusted HR Q4 vs Q1: 1.364 [1.153 to 1.614], p < 0.001), stroke (adjusted HR Q4 vs Q1: 1.410 [1.074 to 1.852], p = 0.013), dialysis (adjusted HR Q4 vs Q1: 3.982 [3.386 to 4.683], p < 0.001), rejection (adjusted HR Q4 vs Q1: 1.519 [1.286 to 1.795], p = 0.003) and prolonged hospitalization (adjusted HR Q4 vs Q1: 1.635 [1.429 to 1.871], p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Hepato-renal dysfunction, measured with MELD-XI score, predicts morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing orthotopic heart transplantation. Etiology of hepato-renal dysfunction should be sought and treated before heart transplantation.

Fontan Liver Disease: Review of an Emerging Epidemic and Management Options

OPINION STATEMENT

Adults with complex congenital heart disease that resulted in a Fontan procedure frequently experience late cardiac failure. Increasingly, liver disease is recognized as an important complication of single-ventricle anatomy and Fontan physiology; however, there is no consensus regarding liver evaluation in this population. Here, we review what is known about liver disease in this unique group and propose screening and prevention measures. We also review controversial treatment areas including assist devices and transplantation, with a review of outcomes in isolated heart and combined heart-liver transplant.

MELD-XI Score Predicts Early Mortality in Patients After Heart Transplantation

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to determine the utility of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding INR (MELD-XI) in predicting early outcomes (30 days and 1 year) and late outcomes (5 years) in patients after orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT).

METHODS

The United Network for Organ Sharing database was queried for all adult patients (aged ≥ 18 years) undergoing OHT from 2000 to 2012. A MELD-XI was calculated and the population stratified into score quartiles. Early and late survivals were compared among the MELD-XI cohorts. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to determine the capacity of MELD-XI (when modeled both as a categoric and a continuous variable) to predict 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year mortality. Conditional models were also designed to determine the effect of early mortality on long-term survival.

RESULTS

A total of 22,597 patients were included for analysis. The MELD-XI cutoff scores were established as follows: low (≤ 10.5), low-intermediate (10.6 to 12.6), intermediate-high (12.7 to 16.4), and high (>16.4). The high MELD-XI cohort experienced statistically worse 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year unconditional survivals when compared with patients with low scores (p < 0.001). Similarly, a high MELD-XI score was also predictive of early and late mortality (p < 0.001) after risk adjustment. There was, however, no difference in 5-year survival between the high score and low score cohorts after accounting for 1-year deaths. Subanalysis of patients bridged to transplant with a continuous-flow left ventricular assist device demonstrated similar findings.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first known study to examine the relationship between a high MELD-XI score and outcomes in patients after OHT. Patients with hepatic or renal dysfunction before OHT should be closely monitored and aggressively optimized as early mortality appears to drive long-term outcomes.

Modified Model for End-Stage Liver Disease eXcluding INR (MELD-XI) Score Predicts Early Death After Pediatric Heart Transplantation

BACKGROUND

We sought to determine the ability of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease eXcluding INR (MELD-XI) to predict short-term and long-term outcomes in pediatric patients undergoing orthotopic heart transplant.

METHODS

The United Network for Organ Sharing Database was queried for all pediatric patients (aged 1 to 18 years) undergoing orthotopic heart transplant from 2000 to 2012. The logarithmic relationship between the serum creatinine and bilirubin was used to calculate the MELD-XI score. Lowess smoothing plots were referenced, and a score threshold of 12.2 was used to stratify patients into low (75%) and high (25%) MELD-XI cohorts. Patient-specific characteristics, intraoperative variables, and postoperative outcomes were compared between the two cohorts. Differences in survival at 30 days, 1 year, and 5 years between the MELD-XI cohorts were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to determine the risk-adjusted effect of a high MELD-XI score on death.

RESULTS

After patients with missing MELD-XI scores were excluded, 2,939 patients met the inclusion criteria. Unconditional 30-day (93.1% vs 98.0%, p < 0.001), 1-year (85.9% vs 92.9%, p < 0.001), and 5-year (71.2% vs 79.5%, p < 0.001) survivals were significantly worse in the high-score cohort. However, 1-year survival excluding 90-day deaths (94.9% vs 95.8%, p = 0.29) and 5-year survival excluding 1-year deaths (82.8% vs 85.6%, p = 0.09) were statistically equivalent. When modeled as a categoric variable, a high MELD-XI score was an independent predictor of death at 30 days (hazard ratio, 2.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.84 to 4.45; p < 0.001), 1 year (hazard ratio, 1.88; 95% confidence interval, 1.42 to 2.48, p < 0.001), and 5 years (hazard ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 1.77; p < 0.001). For every 1-point increase in the MELD-XI score, mortality increased 11% at 30 days, 7% at 1 year, and 4% at 5 years (p < 0.001). The MELD-XI was not predictive of conditional mortality at 1 year or 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD-XI scoring system can be used in pediatric orthotopic heart transplant to identify patients at risk for poor outcomes. Because long-term survival is largely driven by early death, renal insufficiency and congestive hepatopathy should be optimized before transplant.

Impact of anticoagulation on upper-gastrointestinal bleeding in cirrhosis. A retrospective multicenter study

Recent studies have shown that liver cirrhosis (LC) behaves as an acquired hypercoagulable state with increased thrombotic risk. This is why anticoagulation therapy (AT) is now frequently used in these patients. Variceal bleeding is a severe complication of LC. It is unknown whether AT may impact the outcome of bleeding in these patients. Fifty-two patients on AT with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) were evaluated. Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) and different cardiovascular disorders (CVDs) were the indication for AT in 14 and 38 patients, respectively. Overall, 104 patients with LC and UGIB not under AT matched for severity of LC, age, sex, source of bleeding, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score served as controls. UGIB was attributed to portal hypertension (PH) in 99 (63%) patients and peptic/vascular lesions in 57 (37%). Twenty-six (17%) patients experienced 5-day failure; SOFA, source of UGIB, and PVT, but not AT, were independent predictors of 5-day failure. In addition, independent predictors of 6-week mortality, which was observed in 26 (11%) patients, were SOFA, Charlson Comorbidity index, and use of AT for a CVD. There were no differences between patients with/without AT in needs for rescue therapies, intensive care unit admission, transfusions, and hospital stay.

CONCLUSIONS

Factors that impact the outcome of UGIB in patients under AT are degree of multiorgan failure and comorbidity, but not AT itself.

The outcomes of adult liver transplants in the United States from 1987 to 2013

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In the past three decades, there have been major advances in the procedure and candidate selection for liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to assess the changes in outcomes of liver transplantations in the Unites States.

METHODS

This observational study uses the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) that includes all liver transplants from 1987 to 2013 (N = 108 707 adults).

RESULTS

Four study cycles were introduced: 1987-1993, 1994-2000, 2001-2006, 2007-2013. The length of inpatient stay for receiving liver transplant substantially shortened (42-20 days), and so did the rate of acute post-transplant rejections (33-4%). The use of high risk donors and donors with chronic diseases increased significantly. Of transplant outcomes, despite recently reported unfavourable changes in clinico-demographic profile of liver transplant recipients (older age, substantial increases in all major comorbidities), the proportion of patients discharged alive increased from 78.2 to 91.8%. On the other hand, post-discharge 1-, 3- and 5-year mortality varied between 6.7 and 8.0%, 15.2 to 17.2% and 22.5 to 24.5%, respectively, and no consistent trend was found. Despite this, the rates of graft failure decreased: an approximately two-fold decrease in 1 year graft loss, and a 1.6-fold decrease in 5 year graft loss were observed.

CONCLUSION

Despite all improvements in liver transplant technique and patient management, the changes in post-transplant outcomes vary. While inpatient mortality, graft losses and post-transplant infect-ion rates improved substantially, post-discharge mortality remains stable because of increasing losses to competing risks in patients with non-liver comorbidities.

Model for end-stage liver disease score and MELD exceptions: 15 years later

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score has been used as an objective scale of disease severity for management of patients with end-stage liver disease; it currently serves as the basis of an urgency-based organ-allocation policy in several countries. Implementation of the MELD score led to a reduction in waiting-list registration and waiting-list mortality and an increase in the number of deceased-donor transplants without adversely affecting long-term outcomes after liver transplantation (LT). The MELD score has been used for management of non-transplant patients with chronic liver disease. MELD exceptions serve as a mechanism to advance the needs of subsets of patients with liver disease not adequately addressed by MELD-based organ allocation. Several models have been proposed to refine and improve the MELD score as the environment within which it operates continues to evolve toward transplantation for sicker patients. The MELD score continues to serve and be used as a template to improve upon as an objective gauge of disease severity and as a metric enabling optimization of allocation of scarce donor organs for LT.

Combination of liver biopsy with MELD-XI scores for post-transplant outcome prediction in patients with advanced heart failure and suspected liver dysfunction

BACKGROUND

Functional and structural liver abnormalities may be found in patients with advanced heart failure (HF). The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding INR (MELD-XI) score allows functional risk stratification of HF patients on and off anti-coagulation awaiting heart transplantation (HTx), but these scores may improve or worsen depending on bridging therapies and during time on the waiting list. Liver biopsy is sometimes performed to assess for severity of fibrosis. Uncertainty remains whether biopsy in addition to MELD-XI improves prediction of adverse outcomes in patients evaluated for HTx.

METHODS

Sixty-eight patients suspected of advanced liver disease underwent liver biopsy as part of their HTx evaluation. A liver risk score (fibrosis-on-biopsy + 1) × MELD-XI was generated for each patient.

RESULTS

Fifty-two patients were listed, of whom 14 had mechanical circulatory support (MCS). Thirty-six patients underwent transplantation and 27 patients survived ≥1 year post-HTx (74%, as compared with 88% average 1-year survival in HTx patients without suspected liver disease; p < 0.01). Survivors had a lower liver risk score at evaluation for HTx (31.0 ± 20.4 vs 65.2 ± 28.6, p < 0.01). A cut-point of 45 for liver risk score was identified by receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analysis. In the analysis using Cox proportional hazards models, a liver risk score ≥45 at evaluation for HTx was associated with greater risk of death at 1 year post-HTx compared with a score of <45 in both univariable (HR 3.94, 95% CI 1.77-8.79, p < 0.001) and multivariable (HR 4.35, 95% CI 1.77-8.79, p < 0.001) analyses. Patients who died <1 year post-HTx had an increased frequency of acute graft dysfunction (44.4% vs 3.7%, p = 0.009), longer ventilation times (55.6% vs 11.1%, p = 0.013) and severe bleeding events (44.4% vs 11.1%, p = 0.049). The liver risk score at evaluation for HTx also predicted 1-year mortality after HTx listing (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with HF and advanced liver dysfunction are high-risk HTx candidates. Liver biopsy in addition to MELD-XI improves risk stratification of patients with advanced HF and suspected irreversible liver dysfunction.

Plasma amino acid profiling identifies specific amino acid associations with cardiovascular function in patients with systolic heart failure

BACKGROUND

The heart has close interactions with other organs' functions and concomitant systemic factors such as oxidative stress, nitric oxide (NO), inflammation, and nutrition in systolic heart failure (HF). Recently, plasma amino acid (AA) profiling as a systemic metabolic indicator has attracted considerable attention in predicting the future risk of human cardiometabolic diseases, but it has been scarcely studied in HF.

METHODS

Thirty-eight stable but greater than New York Heart Association class II symptomatic patients with left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction <45% and 33 asymptomatic individuals with normal B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) value were registered as the HF and control groups, respectively. We analyzed fasting plasma concentrations of 41 AAs using high-performance liquid chromatography, serum NO metabolite concentration, hydroperoxide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein measurements, echocardiography, and flow-mediated dilatation.

RESULTS

We found that 17 AAs and two ratios significantly changed in the HF group compared with those in the control group (p < 0.05). In the HF group, subsequent univariate and stepwise multivariate analyses with clinical variables revealed that Fischer ratio and five specific AAs, ie, monoethanolamine, methionine, tyrosine, 1-methylhistidine, and histidine have significant correlation with BNP, LV ejection fraction, LV end-diastolic volume index, inferior vena cava diameter, the ratio of early diastolic velocity of the mitral inflow to mitral annulus, and BNP, respectively (p < 0.05). Interestingly, further exploratory factor analysis categorized these AAs into hepatic-related (monoethanolamine, tyrosine, and Fischer ratio) and skeletal muscle-related (histidine, methionine, and 1-methylhistidine) components. Some categorized AAs showed unique correlations with concomitant factors: monoethanolamine, tyrosine, and Fischer ratio with serum NO concentration; histidine with serum albumin; and 1-methylhistidine with flow-mediated dilatation (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Plasma AA profiling identified correlations of specific AAs with cardiac function and concomitant factors, highlighting the cardio-hepatic-skeletal muscle axis in patients with systolic HF.

Glomerular filtration rate is an independent factor of mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

AIM

Although serum creatinine is included in the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, it is an inaccurate marker of renal function, namely, of glomerular filtration rate ("true" GFR) in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Our aim was to investigate the impact of MELD score and "true" GFR as determinants of survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

We included all consecutive patients with decompensated cirrhosis who were admitted to our department. Renal function was assessed by creatinine- and cystatin-based estimated GFR and "true" GFR using (51) Cr-ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid. The independent factors associated with survival were evaluated. The discriminative ability of the prognostic scores (MELD and modifications of MELD score) were evaluated by using the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC).

RESULTS

One hundred and ten consecutive patients (77 men, aged 56 ± 12 years); at the end of follow up (8 months; range, 6-18), 92 patients (84%) were alive and 18 (16%) had died. In multivariate analysis, serum bilirubin (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.26; P = 0.020) and "true" GFR (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-0.98; P = 0.003) were the only independent factors significantly associated with the outcome. The derived new prognostic model had high discriminative ability (AUC, 0.90), which was confirmed in the validation sample of 77 patients.

CONCLUSION

In our cohort of patients with decompensated cirrhosis, "true" GFR and bilirubin were the independent factors of the outcome.

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) can predict outcomes in ambulatory patients with advanced heart failure who have been referred for cardiac transplantation evaluation

Risk stratification in heart failure (HF) patients is an important element for management. There are several risk stratification models that can be used to predict the prognosis of patients with HF, such as Aaronson's scale, CVM-HF (CardioVascular Medicine Heart Failure), the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Munich score. These models fail to adequately address the impact of multiorgan dysfunction on prognosis. The classical Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score consists of: total bilirubin, INR (international normalized ratio) and creatinine level. There are some modifications of the MELD scale: MELD-XI, which excludes the INR score; the mod-MELD score, in which INR is replaced with albumin levels; and MELD-Na, which consists of the bilirubin and creatinine levels, INR ratio and the sodium level. Therefore, the MELD score systems are markers of multisystem dysfunction (renal, cardiac, hepatic). It is important that they are composed of routinely collected laboratory measures which are easy to use.

Prognostic performance of a series of model for end-stage liver disease and respective Δ scores in patients with hepatitis B acute-on-chronic liver failure

The present study aimed to compare the short-term prognostic performance of a series of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and respective delta (Δ) scores scoring systems in a population with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF), and to investigate the potential effects from antivirals. A total of 77 patients with ACHBLF of mean age 46 years, 82% male, with 58.4% receiving antivirals, were recruited for this study. The Δ scores for MELDs were defined as the changes one week after admission. Thirty-eight (49%) patients (22 treated with antivirals) died within three months. The mean MELD and ΔMELD scores of the survival group were 19.5±4.4 and 0.2±3.7 respectively, and those of the mortality group were 23.5±5.5 and 7.9±6, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for MELD, integrated MELD (iMELD), MELD with the addition of serum sodium (MELD-Na), updated MELD (upMELD), MELD excluding the international normalized ratio (INR; MELD-XI), United Kingdom MELD (UKMELD) and their Δ scores were 0.72, 0.81, 0.77, 0.69, 0.65, 0.77 and 0.86, 0.83, 0.83, 0.82, 0.79 and 0.79, respectively. iMELD and MELD-Na significantly improved the accuracy of MELD (P<0.05). A cut-off value of 41.5 for the iMELD score can prognose 71% of mortalities with a specificity of 85%. In each pair of models, the Δ score was superior to its counterpart, particularly when applied to patients with MELD ≤30. Decreased accuracy was observed for all models in the subset of patients treated with antivirals, although their baseline characteristics were comparable to those of untreated patients, while iMELD, MELD-Na and respective Δ models remained superior with regard to the predictability. The iMELD and MELD-Na models predicted three-month mortality more accurately, while the Δ models were superior to their counterparts when MELD ≤30; however, their performance was altered by antivirals, and thus requires optimization.

Risk stratification of ambulatory patients with advanced heart failure undergoing evaluation for heart transplantation

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification of ambulatory heart failure (HF) patients has relied on peak VO(2)<14 ml/kg/min. We investigated whether additional clinical variables might further specify risk of death, ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation (INTERMACS <4) or heart transplantation (HTx, Status 1A or 1B) within 1 year after HTx evaluation. We hypothesized that right ventricular stroke work index (RVSWI), pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and the model for end-stage liver disease-albumin score (MELD-A) would be additive prognostic predictors.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data on 151 ambulatory patients undergoing HTx evaluation. Primary outcomes were defined as HTx, LVAD or death within 1 year after evaluation.

RESULTS

Average age in our cohort was 55 ± 11.1 years, 79.1% were male and 39% had an ischemic etiology (LVEF 21 ± 10.5% and peak VO(2) 12.6 ± 3.5 ml/kg/min). Fifty outcomes (33.1%) were observed (27 HTxs, 15 VADs and 8 deaths). Univariate logistic regression showed a significant association of RVSWI (OR 0.47, p = 0.036), PCWP (OR 2.65, p = 0.007) and MELD-A (OR 2.73, p = 0.006) with 1-year events. Stepwise regression showed an independent correlation of RVSWI<5gm-m(2)/beat (OR 6.70, p < 0.01), PCWP>20 mm Hg (OR 5.48, p < 0.01), MELD-A>14 (OR 3.72, p< 0.01) and peak VO(2)<14 ml/kg/min (OR 3.36, p = 0.024) with 1-year events. A scoring system was developed: MELD-A>14 and peak VO(2)<14-1 point each; and PCWP>20 and RVSWI<5-2 points each. A cut-off at≥4 demonstrated a 54% sensitivity and 88% specificity for 1-year events.

CONCLUSIONS

Ambulatory HF patients have significant 1-year event rates. Risk stratification based on exercise performance, left-sided congestion, right ventricular dysfunction and liver congestion allows prediction of 1-year prognosis. Our findings support early and timely referral for VAD and/or transplant.

Introducing an optimal liver allocation system for liver cirrhosis patients

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is the only treatment option for patients with advanced liver disease. Currently, liver donation to these patients, considering priorities, is based on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD). MELD score is a tool for predicting the risk of mortality in patients with advanced liver disease. However, few studies have so far been conducted in Iran on the efficacy of MELD score of these patients.

OBJECTIVES

This study reviews the present status of the MELD score and introduces a new model for optimal prediction of the risk of mortality in Iranian patients with advanced liver disease.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data required were collected from 305 patients with advanced liver disease who enrolled in a waiting list (WL) in Imam Khomeini Hospital from May 2008 to May 2009. All of the patients were followed up for at least 3 years until they died or underwent LT. Cox regression analysis was applied to select the factors affecting their mortality. Survival curves were plotted. Wilcoxson test and receiver operating characteristics curves for survival predictive model were used to compare the scores. All calculations were performed with the SPSS (version 13.0) and R softwares.

RESULTS

During the study, 71 (23.3%) patients died due to liver cirrhosis and 43 (14.1%) underwent LT. Viral Hepatitis (43.7%) is the most common cause of end-stage liver disease among Iranian patients. A new model (NMELD) was proposed with the use of the natural logarithms of two blood serum variables (total bilirubin and albumin) and the patients' age (year) by applying the Cox model: NMELD = 10 × (0.736 × ln (bilirubin) - 1.312 × ln (albumin) + 0.025 × age + 1.776).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the Wilcoxon test showed that there is a significant difference between the usual MELD and our proposed NMELD scores (P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristics curve for survival predictive model indicated that the NMELD score is more efficient compared with the MELD score in predicting the risk of mortality. Since serum creatinine was not significant in NMELD score, further studies to clarify this issue are suggested.

Hepatic dysfunction in ambulatory patients with heart failure: application of the MELD scoring system for outcome prediction

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluated the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and its modified versions, which are established measures of liver dysfunction, as a tool to assess heart transplantation (HTx) urgency in ambulatory patients with heart failure.

BACKGROUND

Liver abnormalities have a prognostic impact on the outcome of patients with advanced heart failure.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 343 patients undergoing HTx evaluation between 2005 and 2009. The prognostic effectiveness of MELD and 2 modifications (MELDNa [includes serum sodium levels] and MELD-XI [does not include international normalized ratio]) for endpoint events, defined as death/HTx/ventricular assist device requirement, was evaluated in our cohort and in subgroups of patients on and off oral anticoagulation.

RESULTS

The MELD and MELDNa scores were excellent predictors for 1-year endpoint events (areas under the curve: 0.71 and 0.73, respectively). High scores (>12) were strongly associated with poor survival at 1 year (MELD 69.3% vs. 90.4% [p < 0.0001]; MELDNa 70.4% vs. 96.9% [p < 0.0001]). Increased scores were associated with increased risk for HTx (hazard ratio: 1.10 [95% confidence interval: 1.06 to 1.14]; p < 0.0001 for both scores), which was independent of other known risk factors (MELD p = 0.0055; MELDNa p = 0.0083). Anticoagulant use was associated with poor survival at 1 year (73.7% vs. 86.4%; p = 0.0118), and the statistical significance of MELD/MELDNa was higher in patients not receiving oral anticoagulation therapy. MELD-XI was a fair but limited predictor of the endpoint events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Assessment of liver dysfunction according to the MELD scoring system provides additional risk information in ambulatory patients with heart failure.

Donor-recipient matching: myths and realities

Liver transplant outcomes keep improving, with refinements of surgical technique, immunosuppression and post-transplant care. However, these excellent results and the limited number of organs available have led to an increasing number of potential recipients with end-stage liver disease worldwide. Deaths on waiting lists have led liver transplant teams maximize every organ offered and used in terms of pre and post-transplant benefit. Donor-recipient (D-R) matching could be defined as the technique to check D-R pairs adequately associated by the presence of the constituents of some patterns from donor and patient variables. D-R matching has been strongly analysed and policies in donor allocation have tried to maximize organ utilization whilst still protecting individual interests. However, D-R matching has been written through trial and error and the development of each new score has been followed by strong discrepancies and controversies. Current allocation systems are based on isolated or combined donor or recipient characteristics. This review intends to analyze current knowledge about D-R matching methods, focusing on three main categories: patient-based policies, donor-based policies and combined donor-recipient systems. All of them lay on three mainstays that support three different concepts of D-R matching: prioritarianism (favouring the worst-off), utilitarianism (maximising total benefit) and social benefit (cost-effectiveness). All of them, with their pros and cons, offer an exciting controversial topic to be discussed. All of them together define D-R matching today, turning into myth what we considered a reality in the past.

Model for End-stage Liver Disease

Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, initially developed to predict survival following transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt was subsequently found to be accurate predictor of mortality amongst patents with end-stage liver disease. Since 2002, MELD score using 3 objective variables (serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, and institutional normalized ratio) has been used worldwide for listing and transplanting patients with end-stage liver disease allowing transplanting sicker patients first irrespective of the wait time on the list. MELD score has also been shown to be accurate predictor of survival amongst patients with alcoholic hepatitis, following variceal hemorrhage, infections in cirrhosis, after surgery in patients with cirrhosis including liver resection, trauma, and hepatorenal syndrome (HRS). Although, MELD score is closest to the ideal score, there are some limitations including its inaccuracy in predicting survival in 15-20% cases. Over the last decade, many efforts have been made to further improve and refine MELD score. Until, a better score is developed, liver allocation would continue based on the currently used MELD score.

Transcatheter Closure of Post-myocardial Infarction Ventricular Septal Rupture

Background—

Ventricular septal rupture (VSR) after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a potentially lethal mechanical complication of acute coronary syndromes. Given high surgical mortality, transcatheter closure has emerged as a potential strategy in selected cases. We report our single-center experience with double-umbrella device percutaneous closure of post-AMI VSR.

Methods and Results—

In this single-center, retrospective, cohort study, patients who underwent transcatheter closure of post-AMI VSR between 1988 and 2008 at Boston Children’s Hospital were included. Data were analysed according to whether the patients underwent direct percutaneous VSR closure or closure of a residual VSR after a previous surgical approach. Primary outcome was mortality rate at 30 days. Clinical predictors of primary outcome were investigated using univariate logistic regression. Thirty patients were included in the study (mean age, 67±8 years). A total of 40 closure devices were implanted. Major periprocedural complications occurred in 4 (13%) patients. Cardiogenic shock, increasing pulmonary/systemic flow ratio, and the use of the new generation (6-arm) STARFlex device all were associated with higher risk of mortality. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding international normalized ratio (MELD-XI) score at the time of VSR closure seemed to be most strongly associated with death (odds ratio, 1.6; confidence interval, 1.1–2.2; P <0.001).

Conclusions—

Transcatheter closure of post-AMI VSR using CardioSEAL or STARFlex devices is feasible and effective. The MELD-XI score, a marker of multiorgan dysfunction, is a promising risk stratifier in this population of patients. Early closure of post-AMI VSR is advisable before establishment of multiorgan failure.

Portal vein thrombosis, cirrhosis, and liver transplantation

Portal vein thrombosis is not uncommon in candidates for transplantation. Partial thrombosis is more common than complete thrombosis. Despite careful screening at evaluation, a number of patients are still found with previously unrecognized thrombosis per-operatively. The objective is to recanalize the portal vein or, if recanalization is not achievable, to prevent the extension of the thrombus so that a splanchnic vein can be used as the inflow vessel to restore physiological blood flow to the allograft. Anticoagulation during waiting time and transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) are two options to achieve these goals. TIPS may achieve recanalization in patients with complete portal vein thrombosis. However, a marked impairment in liver function, which is a characteristic feature of most candidates for transplantation, may be a contraindication for TIPS. Importantly, the MELD score is artificially increased by the administration of vitamin K antagonists due to prolonged INR. When patency of the portal vein and/or superior mesenteric vein is not achieved, only non-anatomical techniques (renoportal anastomosis or cavoportal hemitransposition) can be performed. These techniques, which do not fully reverse portal hypertension, are associated with higher morbidity and mortality risks. Multivisceral transplantation including the liver and small bowel needs to be evaluated. In the absence of prothrombotic states that may persist after transplantation, there is no evidence that pre-transplant portal vein thrombosis justifies long term anticoagulation post-transplantation, provided portal flow has been restored through conventional end-to-end portal anastomosis.

Liver dysfunction as a predictor of outcomes in patients with advanced heart failure requiring ventricular assist device support: Use of the Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and MELD eXcluding INR (MELD-XI) scoring system

BACKGROUND

Liver dysfunction increases post-surgical morbidity and mortality. The Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) estimates liver function but can be inaccurate in patients receiving oral anti-coagulation. We evaluated the effect of liver dysfunction on outcomes after ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation and the dynamic changes in liver dysfunction that occur during VAD support.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 255 patients (147 with pulsatile devices and 108 with continuous-flow devices) who received a long-term VAD between 2000 and 2010. Liver dysfunction was estimated by MELD and MELD-eXcluding INR (MELD-XI), with patients grouped by a score of ≥ 17 or < 17. Primary outcomes were on-VAD, after transplant, and overall survival.

RESULTS

MELD and MELD-XI correlated highly (R ≥ 0.901, p < 0.0001) in patients not on oral anti-coagulation. Patients with MELD or MELD-XI < 17 had improved on-VAD and overall survival (p < 0.05) with a higher predictive power for MELD-XI. During VAD support, cholestasis initially worsened but eventually improved. Patients with pre-VAD liver dysfunction who survived to transplant had lower post-transplant survival (p = 0.0193). However, if MELD-XI normalized during VAD support, post-transplant survival improved and was similar to that of patients with low MELD-XI scores.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD-XI is a viable alternative for assessing liver dysfunction in heart failure patients on oral anti-coagulation. Liver dysfunction is associated with worse survival. However, if MELD-XI improves during VAD support, post-transplant survival is similar to those without prior liver dysfunction, suggesting an important prognostic role. We also found evidence of a transient cholestatic state after LVAD implantation that deserves further examination.