Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe

Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. A novel integrated framework to assess vulnerability and prioritize research and management action aims to improve our ability to respond to this emerging crisis.

The coincidence of climatic and species rarity: high risk to small-range species from climate change

Why do areas with high numbers of small-range species occur where they do? We found that, for butterfly and plant species in Europe, and for bird species in the Western Hemisphere, such areas coincide with regions that have rare climates, and are higher and colder areas than surrounding regions. Species with small range sizes also tend to occur in climatically diverse regions, where species are likely to have been buffered from extinction in the past. We suggest that the centres of high small-range species richness we examined predominantly represent interglacial relict areas where cold-adapted species have been able to survive unusually warm periods in the last ca 10000 years. We show that the rare climates that occur in current centres of species rarity will shrink disproportionately under future climate change, potentially leading to high vulnerability for many of the species they contain.

Long-term dynamics of a fragmented rainforest mammal assemblage

Habitat fragmentation is a severe threat to tropical biotas, but its long-term effects are poorly understood. We evaluated longer-term changes in the abundance of larger (>1 kg) mammals in fragmented and intact rainforest and in riparian "corridors" in tropical Queensland, with data from 190 spotlighting surveys conducted in 1986-1987 and 2006-2007. In 1986-1987 when most fragments were already 20-50 years old, mammal assemblages differed markedly between fragmented and intact forest. Most vulnerable were lemuroid ringtail possums (Hemibelideus lemuroides), followed by Lumholtz's tree-kangaroos (Dendrolagus lumholtzi) and Herbert River ringtail possums (Pseudocheirus herbertensis). Further changes were evident 20 years later. Mammal species richness fell significantly in fragments, and the abundances of 4 species, coppery brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula johnstoni), green ringtail possums (Pseudochirops archeri), red-legged pademelons (Thylogale stigmatica), and tree-kangaroos, declined significantly. The most surprising finding was that the lemuroid ringtail, a strict rainforest specialist, apparently recolonized one fragment, despite a 99.98% decrease in abundance in fragments and corridors. A combination of factors, including long-term fragmentation effects, shifts in the surrounding matrix vegetation, and recurring cyclone disturbances, appear to underlie these dynamic changes in mammal assemblages.

Extinction vulnerability of tropical montane endemism from warming and upslope displacement: a preliminary appraisal for the highest massif in Madagascar

One of the predicted biological responses to climate warming is the upslope displacement of species distributions. In the tropics, because montane assemblages frequently include local endemics that are distributed close to summits, these species may be especially vulnerable to experiencing complete habitat loss from warming. However, there is currently a dearth of information available for tropical regions. Here, we present a preliminary appraisal of this extinction threat using the herpetological assemblage of the Tsaratanana Massif in northern Madagascar (the island's highest massif), which is rich with montane endemism. We present meteorological evidence (individual and combined regional weather station data and reanalysis forecast data) for recent warming in Madagascar, and show that this trend is consistent with recent climate model simulations. Using standard moist adiabatic lapse rates, these observed meteorological warming trends in northern Madagascar predict upslope species displacement of 17–74 m per decade between 1993 and 2003. Over this same period, we also report preliminary data supporting a trend for upslope distribution movements, based on two surveys we completed at Tsaratanana. For 30 species, representing five families of reptiles and amphibians, we found overall mean shifts in elevational midpoint of 19–51 m upslope (mean lower elevation limit 29–114 m; mean upper elevation limit −8 to 53 m). We also found upslope trends in mean and median elevational observations in seven and six of nine species analysed. Phenological differences between these surveys do not appear to be substantial, but these upslope shifts are consistent with the predictions based on meteorological warming. An elevational range displacement analysis projects complete habitat loss for three species below the 2 °C ‘dangerous’ warming threshold. One of these species is not contracting its distribution, but the other two were not resampled in 2003. A preliminary review of the other massifs in Madagascar indicates potential similar vulnerability to habitat loss and upslope extinction. Consequently, we urgently recommend additional elevational surveys for these and other tropical montane assemblages, which should also include, when possible, the monitoring of local meteorological conditions and habitat change.

Integrating GIS-based environmental data into evolutionary biology

Many evolutionary processes are influenced by environmental variation over space and time, including genetic divergence among populations, speciation and evolutionary change in morphology, physiology and behaviour. Yet, evolutionary biologists have generally not taken advantage of the extensive environmental data available from geographic information systems (GIS). For example, studies of phylogeography, speciation and character evolution often ignore or use only crude proxies for environmental variation (e.g. latitude and distance between populations). Here, we describe how the integration of GIS-based environmental data, along with new spatial tools, can transform evolutionary studies and reveal new insights into the ecological causes of evolutionary patterns.

Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest.

Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions

Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8 degrees C, projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1 degrees C warming) to 30.0% (6.4 degrees C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100-500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.

Optimizing allocation of management resources for wildlife

Allocating money for species conservation on the basis of threatened species listings is not the most cost-effective way of promoting recovery or minimizing extinction rates. Using ecological and social factors in addition to threat categories, we designed a decision-support process to assist policy makers in their allocation of resources for the management of native wildlife and to clarify the considerations leading to a priority listing. Each species is scored on three criteria at the scale of the relevant jurisdiction: (1) threat category, (2) consequences of extinction, and (3) potential for successful recovery. This approach provides opportunity for independent input by policy makers and other stakeholders (who weight the relative importance of the criteria) and scientists (who score the species against the criteria). Thus the process explicitly separates societal values from the technical aspects of the decision-making process while acknowledging the legitimacy of both inputs. We applied our technique to two Australian case studies at different spatial scales: the frogs of Queensland (1,728,000 km(2); 116 species) and the mammals of the Wet Tropics bioregion (18,500 km(2); 96 species). We identified 7 frog and 10 mammal species as priorities for conservation. The frogs included 1 of the 9 species classified as endangered under Queensland legislation, 3 of the 10 species classified as vulnerable, 2 of the 22 species classified as rare, and 1 of the 75 species classified as least concern. The mammals identified included 3 of the 6 species classified as endangered, 1 of the 4 species classified as vulnerable, 5 of the 11 species classified as rare, and 1 of the 75 species classified as least concern. The methods we used to identify species were robust to comparisons across the two taxonomic groups. We concluded that (1) our process facilitates comparisons of data required to make transparent, cost-effective, and strategic management decisions across taxonomic groups and (2) the process should be used to short-list species for further discussion rather than for allocating resources per se.

Lack of genetic structure among ecologically adapted populations of an Australian rainforestDrosophilaspecies as indicated by microsatellite markers and mitochondrial DNA sequences

Although fragmented rainforest environments represent hotspots for invertebrate biodiversity, few genetic studies have been conducted on rainforest invertebrates. Thus, it is not known if invertebrate species in rainforests are highly genetically fragmented, with the potential for populations to show divergent selection responses, or if there are low levels of gene flow sufficient to maintain genetic homogeneity among fragmented populations. Here we use microsatellite markers and DNA sequences from the mitochondrial ND5 locus to investigate genetic differences among Drosophila birchii populations from tropical rainforests in Queensland, Australia. As found in a previous study, mitochondrial DNA diversity was low with no evidence for population differentiation among rainforest fragments. The pattern of mitochondrial haplotype variation was consistent with D. birchii having undergone substantial past population growth. Levels of nuclear genetic variation were high in all populations while F(ST) values were very low, even for flies from geographically isolated areas of rainforest. No significant differentiation was observed between populations on either side of the Burdekin Gap (a long-term dry corridor), although there was evidence for higher gene diversity in low-latitude populations. Spatial autocorrelation coefficients were low and did not differ significantly from random, except for one locus which revealed a clinal-like pattern. Comparisons of microsatellite differentiation contrasted with previously established clinal patterns in quantitative traits in D. birchii, and indicate that the patterns in quantitative traits are likely to be due to selection. These results suggest moderate gene flow in D. birchii over large distances. Limited population structure in this species appears to be due to recent range expansions or cycles of local extinctions followed by recolonizations/expansions. Nevertheless, patterns of local adaptation have developed in D. birchii that may result in populations showing different selection responses when faced with environmental change.

Physiological constraints on organismal response to global warming: Mechanistic insights from clinally varying populations and implications for assessing endangerment

Recent syntheses indicate that global warming affects diverse biological processes, but also highlight the potential for some species to adapt behaviourally or evolutionarily to rapid climate change. Far less attention has addressed the alternative, that organisms lacking this ability may face extinction, a fate projected to befall one-quarter of global biodiversity. This conclusion is controversial, in part because there exist few mechanistic studies that show how climate change could precipitate extinction. We provide a concrete, mechanistic example of warming as a stressor of organisms that are closely adapted to cool climates from a comparative analysis of organismal tolerance among clinally varying populations along a natural thermal gradient. We found that two montane salamanders exhibit significant metabolic depression at temperatures within the natural thermal range experienced by low and middle elevation populations. Moreover, the magnitude of depression was inversely related to native elevation, suggesting that low elevation populations are already living near the limit of their physiological tolerances. If this finding generally applies to other montane specialists, the prognosis for biodiversity loss in typically diverse montane systems is sobering. We propose that indices of warming-induced stress tolerance may provide a critical new tool for quantitative assessments of endangerment due to anthropogenic climate change across diverse species.

Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions

Unqualified, the statement that approximately 1.3% of the approximately 10,000 presently known bird species have become extinct since A.D. 1500 yields an estimate of approximately 26 extinctions per million species per year (or 26 E/MSY). This is higher than the benchmark rate of approximately 1 E/MSY before human impacts, but is a serious underestimate. First, Polynesian expansion across the Pacific also exterminated many species well before European explorations. Second, three factors increase the rate: (i) The number of known extinctions before 1800 is increasing as taxonomists describe new species from skeletal remains. (ii) One should calculate extinction rates over the years since taxonomists described the species. Most bird species were described only after 1850. (iii) Some species are probably extinct; there is reluctance to declare them so prematurely. Thus corrected, recent extinction rates are approximately 100 E/MSY. In the last decades, the rate is <50 E/MSY, but would be 150 E/MSY were it not for conservation efforts. Increasing numbers of extinctions are on continents, whereas previously most were on islands. We predict a 21st century rate of approximately 1,000 E/MSY. Extinction threatens 12% of bird species; another 12% have small geographical ranges and live where human actions rapidly destroy their habitats. If present forest losses continue, extinction rates will reach 1,500 E/MSY by the century's end. Invasive species, expanding human technologies, and global change will harm additional species. Birds are poor models for predicting extinction rates for other taxa. Human actions threaten higher fractions of other well known taxa than they do birds. Moreover, people take special efforts to protect birds.

Environments and evolution: interactions between stress, resource inadequacy and energetic efficiency

Evolutionary change is interpreted in terms of the near-universal ecological scenario of stressful environments. Consequently, there is a premium on the energetically efficient exploitation of resources in a resource-inadequate world. Under this environmental model, fitness can be approximated to energetic efficiency especially towards the limits of survival. Furthermore, fitness at one stage of the life-cycle should correlate with fitness at other stages, especially for development time, survival and longevity; 'good genotypes' under stress should therefore be at a premium. Conservation in the wild depends primarily on adaptation to abiotically changing habitats since towards the limits of survival, genomic variation is rarely restrictive. The balance between energetic costs under variable environments and energy from resources provides a model for interpreting evolutionary stasis, punctuational and gradual change, and specialist diversification. Ultimately, a species should be in an equilibrium between the physiology of an organism and its adaptation to the environment. The primary key to understanding evolutionary change should therefore be ecological, highlighting energy availability in a stressed world; this approach is predictive for various patterns of evolutionary change in the living and fossil biota.

Population trends associated with skin peptide defenses against chytridiomycosis in Australian frogs

Many species of amphibians in the wet tropics of Australia have experienced population declines linked with the emergence of a skin-invasive chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. An innate defense, antimicrobial peptides produced by granular glands in the skin, may protect some species from disease. Here we present evidence that supports this hypothesis. We tested ten synthesized peptides produced by Australian species, and natural peptide mixtures from five Queensland rainforest species. Natural mixtures and most peptides tested in isolation inhibited growth of B. dendrobatidis in vitro. The three most active peptides (caerin 1.9, maculatin 1.1, and caerin 1.1) were found in the secretions of non-declining species (Litoria chloris, L. caerulea, and L. genimaculata). Although the possession of a potent isolated antimicrobial peptide does not guarantee protection from infection, non-declining species (L. lesueuri and L. genimaculata) inhabiting the rainforest of Queensland possess mixtures of peptides that may be more protective than those of the species occurring in the same habitat that have recently experienced population declines associated with chytridiomycosis (L. nannotis, L. rheocola, and Nyctimystes dayi). This study demonstrates that in vitro effectiveness of skin peptides correlates with the degree of decline in the face of an emerging pathogen. Further research is needed to assess whether this non-specific immune defense may be useful in predicting disease susceptibility in other species.

Climate change and recent genetic flux in populations of Drosophila robusta

Background

Studied since the early 1940's, chromosomal polymorphisms in the deciduous woods species Drosophila robusta have been characterized by well-defined latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevational clines, but – until at least ten years ago – stable, local population frequencies. Recent biogeographical analyses indicate that D. robusta invaded North America from southeast Asia and has persisted in eastern temperate forests for at least 20–25 my without speciating. The abundant chromosome polymorphisms found across the range of D. robusta are thus likely to be relatively ancient, having accumulated over many well known climatic cycles in North America. Sufficient long-term data are now available such that we can now gauge the rate of these evolutionary changes in natural populations due to environmental change.

Results

Recent local collections have revealed significant changes in the frequencies of several chromosomal forms. New data presented here extend the range of these changes to six states, three in the northeastern United States and three west of the Mississippi River. These data reinforce recent directional changes in which the frequencies of three gene arrangements have reached percentage levels typical of distant southern populations consistent with regional climatic changes. Another gene arrangement has been steadily decreasing in frequency at a number of the sites studied. Meteorological records from 1945 to 2003 indicate temperature increases at all study sites, particularly average minimum air temperatures.

Conclusions

Observation of parallel genetic flux suggests that these long-term temporal frequency shifts in widely disparate populations of D. robusta are evolutionary responses to environmental change. Since these chromosomes are known to be sensitive to ambient temperature, regional climatic shifts associated with global warming are likely to be responsible.

Biodiversity conservation: effects of changes in climate and land use

Thomas et al. argue, contrary to Sala et al. that climate change poses an equal or greater threat to global biodiversity than land-use change. We contest this claim, however, on the grounds that Thomas et al. incorrectly apply species-area relationships.

Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.