Trophic Cascades in a Formerly Cod-Dominated Ecosystem

Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

In the vicinity of tipping points—or more precisely bifurcation points—ecosystems recover slowly from small perturbations. Such slowness may be interpreted as a sign of low resilience in the sense that the ecosystem could easily be tipped through a critical transition into a contrasting state. Indicators of this phenomenon of ‘critical slowing down (CSD)’ include a rise in temporal correlation and variance. Such indicators of CSD can provide an early warning signal of a nearby tipping point. Or, they may offer a possibility to rank reefs, lakes or other ecosystems according to their resilience. The fact that CSD may happen across a wide range of complex ecosystems close to tipping points implies a powerful generality. However, indicators of CSD are not manifested in all cases where regime shifts occur. This is because not all regime shifts are associated with tipping points. Here, we review the exploding literature about this issue to provide guidance on what to expect and what not to expect when it comes to the CSD-based early warning signals for critical transitions.

Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union

Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and global fishing activities of the Soviet Union. Our investigation of official catch statistics reflects that the Soviet Union was a major fishing actor in all large marine ecosystems where regime shifts have been documented, including in ecosystems where overfishing has been established as a key driver of these changes (in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Scotian Shelf). Globalization of Soviet Union fishing activities pushed exploitation to radically new levels and triggered regional and global governance responses for improved management. Since then, exploitation levels have remained and increased with new actors involved. Based on our exploratory work, we propose that a deeper understanding of the role of global fishing actors is central for improved management of marine ecosystems.

Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

Among the responses of marine species and their ecosystems to climate change, abrupt community shifts (ACSs), also called regime shifts, have often been observed. However, despite their effects for ecosystem functioning and both provisioning and regulating services, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved remains elusive. This paper proposes a theory showing that some ACSs originate from the interaction between climate-induced environmental changes and the species ecological niche. The theory predicts that a substantial stepwise shift in the thermal regime of a marine ecosystem leads indubitably to an ACS and explains why some species do not change during the phenomenon. It also explicates why the timing of ACSs may differ or why some studies may detect or not detect a shift in the same ecosystem, independently of the statistical method of detection and simply because they focus on different species or taxonomic groups. The present theory offers a way to predict future climate-induced community shifts and their potential associated trophic cascades and amplifications.

The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator–prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.

Inadvertent consequences of fishing: the case of the sex-changing shrimp

The Hokkai shrimp Pandalus latirostris starts life as a male, but eventually turns into a female given the right size and social conditions. The traps used in the fishery targeting this species selectively retain the larger females, leaving a severely male-biased sex ratio in nature and social conditions that bear no resemblance to those that prompted (or prevented) sex change. Photo: Susumu Chiba Chiba, S., Yoshino, K., Kanaiwa, M., Kawajiri, T. & Goshima, S. (2013) Maladaptive sex ratio adjustment by a sex-changing shrimp in selective fishing environments. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, 631-640. Fishing can have many unintended consequences. In this issue, Chiba et al. (2013) demonstrate that size-selective harvesting of a sex-changing shrimp effectively voids their normally adaptive adjustments to population sex ratio. The shrimp's 'decision' to change sex depends largely on the relative abundance of mature males and females in early summer, before fishing begins. However, fishing traps selectively retain females, leading to heavily male-biased sex ratios at the onset of autumn breeding that are different from the ratios that influenced sex-change decisions. Although this phenomenon is not yet expressed in catch trends, maladaptive sex-change decisions could ultimately affect population productivity and persistence.

Assessing social--ecological trade-offs to advance ecosystem-based fisheries management

Modern resource management faces trade-offs in the provision of various ecosystem goods and services to humanity. For fisheries management to develop into an ecosystem-based approach, the goal is not only to maximize economic profits, but to consider equally important conservation and social equity goals. We introduce such a triple-bottom line approach to the management of multi-species fisheries using the Baltic Sea as a case study. We apply a coupled ecological-economic optimization model to address the actual fisheries management challenge of trading-off the recovery of collapsed cod stocks versus the health of ecologically important forage fish populations. Management strategies based on profit maximization would rebuild the cod stock to high levels but may cause the risk of stock collapse for forage species with low market value, such as Baltic sprat (Fig. 1A). Economically efficient conservation efforts to protect sprat would be borne almost exclusively by the forage fishery as sprat fishing effort and profits would strongly be reduced. Unless compensation is paid, this would challenge equity between fishing sectors (Fig. 1B). Optimizing equity while respecting sprat biomass precautionary levels would reduce potential profits of the overall Baltic fishery, but may offer an acceptable balance between overall profits, species conservation and social equity (Fig. 1C). Our case study shows a practical example of how an ecosystem-based fisheries management will be able to offer society options to solve common conflicts between different resource uses. Adding equity considerations to the traditional trade-off between economy and ecology will greatly enhance credibility and hence compliance to management decisions, a further footstep towards healthy fish stocks and sustainable fisheries in the world ocean.

An interactive governance and fish chain approach to fisheries rebuilding: a case study of the Northern Gulf cod in eastern Canada

Rebuilding collapsed fisheries is a multifaceted problem, requiring a holistic governance approach rather than technical management fixes. Using the Northern Gulf cod case study in eastern Canada, we illustrate how a "fish chain" framework, drawn from the interactive governance perspective, is particularly helpful in analyzing rebuilding challenges. The analysis demonstrates that factors limiting rebuilding exist along the entire fish chain, i.e., the pre-harvest, harvest, and post-harvest stages. These challenges are embedded in both the ecological and social systems associated with the Northern Gulf cod fisheries, as well as in the governing systems. A comparative analysis of the pre- and post-collapse of the cod fisheries also reveals governance opportunities in rebuilding, which lie in policy interventions such as integrated and ecosystem-based management, livelihood transitional programs, and cross-scale institutional arrangements. Lessons from the Northern Gulf cod case study, especially the missed opportunities to explore alternative governing options during the transition, are valuable for rebuilding other collapsed fisheries.

The effects of sublethal levels of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid herbicide (2,4-D) on feeding behaviors of the crayfish O. rusticus

The widespread use of herbicides across the globe has increased the probability of synthetic chemicals entering freshwater habitats. On entering aquatic habitats, these chemicals target and disrupt both physiological and behavioral functioning in various aquatic organisms. Herbicides, such as 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D), can have negative impacts on chemoreception because these receptor cells are in direct contact with water-soluble chemicals in the environment. Studies focusing on lethal concentration (LC50) levels may understate the impact of herbicides within aquatic habitats because damage to the chemoreceptors can result in modified behaviors or lack of appropriate responses to environmental or social cues. The purpose of this experiment was to determine whether exposure to sublethal levels of 2,4-D alters the foraging behaviors of crayfish Orconectes rusticus. We hypothesized that crayfish exposed to greater concentrations of 2,4-D would be less successful in locating food or on locating food would consume smaller amounts possibly due to an inability to recognize the food odors in the contaminated waters. Crayfish were exposed to three sublethal levels of 2,4-D for 96 h and placed into a Y-maze system with a fish gelatin food source placed randomly in the right or left arm. Average walking speed, average time spent in the correct arm, and percent consumption were analyzed. Our data show that crayfish were impaired in their ability to forage effectively. These inabilities to locate and consume adequate amounts of food could result in lower body weights and decreased fitness in populations of crayfish exposed to 2,4-D in natural habitats.

How detectable is predation in stage-structured populations? Insights from a simulation-testing analysis

The potential of predation to structure marine food webs is widely acknowledged. However, available tools to detect the regulation of prey population dynamics by predation are limited, partly because available population data often aggregate a population's age structure into a single biomass or abundance metric. Additionally, many food webs are relatively complex, with prey species subject to different assemblages of predators throughout their ontogeny. The goal of this study was to evaluate the extent to which stage-structured predation could be reliably detected from time series of total biomass of predators and prey. We simulated age-structured populations of four mid-trophic-level fish species with distinct life-history traits, exposed them to variable predation at different life stages and fit production models to resulting population biomass to determine how reliably the effects of predators could be detected. Predation targeting early life history and juvenile life stages generally led to larger fluctuations in annual production and was therefore more detectable. However, ecologically realistic levels of observation error and environmental stochasticity masked most predator signals. The addition of predation at a second life stage sharply decreased the ability to detect the effect of each predator. We conclude that the absence of detectable species interactions from biomass time series may be partly due to the interactive effects of environmental variability and complex food web linkages and life histories. We also note that predation signals are most robust for predator-prey systems where predators primarily act on mortality of submature life-history stages. Simulation testing can be applied widely to evaluate the statistical power of analyses to detect predation effects.

Isotopic analysis of island House Martins Delichon urbica indicates marine provenance of nutrients

The presence of one of the largest colonies of House Martins in Europe on the small island of Stora Karlsö, Sweden, led us to investigate the source of their food by analysis of stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen. Carbon isotopic values of House Martin nestlings were the same as those of Common Guillemot Uria aalge nestlings fed on marine fish, but differed from local Collared Flycatcher Ficedula albicollis nestlings fed on woodland insects. We infer that these House Martins fed their chicks almost exclusively on insects that had used nutrients derived from seabirds, indicating a dependence on the presence of a large seabird colony. We suggest by extension that some populations of island passerines of high conservation importance may also be dependent on nutrient subsidies from seabird colonies.

Hydrographic processes driven by seasonal monsoon system affect siphonophore assemblages in tropical-subtropical waters (western North Pacific Ocean)

This work is a part of the Taiwan Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation, the first large scale hydrographic and plankton survey around Taiwan (21-26°N, 119-123°E). The present study examined the influence of hydrodynamic and biological variables driven by monsoon system on the siphonophore assemblages through an annual cycle in 2004. Calycophorans, namely Chelophyes appendiculata, Diphyes chamissonis, Lensia subtiloides, Bassia bassensis, and Muggiaea atlantica, were the most dominant siphonophore species. Maximum abundance of these dominant species generally occurred during the warm period (May and August), while M. atlantica had a significantly peak abundance in February. Although no apparently temporal difference in siphonophore abundance was observed in the study, siphonophore assemblage was more diverse in August than in other sampling times. Result of a cluster analysis indicated that assemblage structure of siphonophores in the waters around Taiwan varied at temporal and spatial scales during the sampling period. The intrusions of the Kuroshio Branch Current and China Coastal Current to the study area play an important role on the transportation of siphonophores. Also, the distribution of siphonophore assemblage was closely related to the hydrographic characteristics, with temperature, chlorophyll a concentration, and zooplankton abundance being the major environmental factors affecting the spatio-temporal variability of siphonophores. This study contributes substantially to the new knowledge of the siphonophore assemblage in the tropical-temperate waters of Taiwan.

Cascading ecological effects of eliminating fishery discards

Discarding by fisheries is perceived as contrary to responsible harvesting. Legislation seeking to end the practice is being introduced in many jurisdictions. However, discarded fish are food for a range of scavenging species; so, ending discarding may have ecological consequences. Here we investigate the sensitivity of ecological effects to discarding policies using an ecosystem model of the North Sea—a region where 30–40% of trawled fish catch is currently discarded. We show that landing the entire catch while fishing as usual has conservation penalties for seabirds, marine mammals and seabed fauna, and no benefit to fish stocks. However, combining landing obligations with changes in fishing practices to limit the capture of unwanted fish results in trophic cascades that can benefit birds, mammals and most fish stocks. Our results highlight the importance of considering the broader ecosystem consequences of fishery management policy, since species interactions may dissipate or negate intended benefits.

Discards from fishing vessels are food for scavenging species, so ending the practice may have ecological consequences. Here, Heath et al. show that improving selectivity so that unwanted fish are not caught, achieves conservation benefits, while simply requiring that vessels land their entire catch, does not.

Climate change, pink salmon, and the nexus between bottom-up and top-down forcing in the subarctic Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea

Climate change in the last century was associated with spectacular growth of many wild Pacific salmon stocks in the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea, apparently through bottom-up forcing linking meteorology to ocean physics, water temperature, and plankton production. One species in particular, pink salmon, became so numerous by the 1990s that they began to dominate other species of salmon for prey resources and to exert top-down control in the open ocean ecosystem. Information from long-term monitoring of seabirds in the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea reveals that the sphere of influence of pink salmon is much larger than previously known. Seabirds, pink salmon, other species of salmon, and by extension other higher-order predators, are tightly linked ecologically and must be included in international management and conservation policies for sustaining all species that compete for common, finite resource pools. These data further emphasize that the unique 2-y cycle in abundance of pink salmon drives interannual shifts between two alternate states of a complex marine ecosystem.

Lethal control of an apex predator has unintended cascading effects on forest mammal assemblages

Disruption to species-interaction networks caused by irruptions of herbivores and mesopredators following extirpation of apex predators is a global driver of ecosystem reorganization and biodiversity loss. Most studies of apex predators' ecological roles focus on effects arising from their interactions with herbivores or mesopredators in isolation, but rarely consider how the effects of herbivores and mesopredators interact. Here, we provide evidence that multiple cascade pathways induced by lethal control of an apex predator, the dingo, drive unintended shifts in forest ecosystem structure. We compared mammal assemblages and understorey structure at seven sites in southern Australia. Each site comprised an area where dingoes were poisoned and an area without control. The effects of dingo control on mammals scaled with body size. Activity of herbivorous macropods, arboreal mammals and a mesopredator, the red fox, were greater, but understorey vegetation sparser and abundances of small mammals lower, where dingoes were controlled. Structural equation modelling suggested that both predation by foxes and depletion of understorey vegetation by macropods were related to small mammal decline at poisoned sites. Our study suggests that apex predators' suppressive effects on herbivores and mesopredators occur simultaneously and should be considered in tandem in order to appreciate the extent of apex predators' indirect effects.

Thermal habitat index of many northwest Atlantic temperate species stays neutral under warming projected for 2030 but changes radically by 2060

Global scale forecasts of range shifts in response to global warming have provided vital insight into predicted species redistribution. We build on that insight by examining whether local warming will affect habitat on spatiotemporal scales relevant to regional agencies. We used generalized additive models to quantify the realized habitat of 46 temperate/boreal marine species using 41+ years of survey data from 35°N-48°N in the Northwest Atlantic. We then estimated change in a "realized thermal habitat index" under short-term (2030) and long-term (2060) warming scenarios. Under the 2030 scenario, ∼10% of species will lose realized thermal habitat at the national scale (USA and Canada) but planktivores are expected to lose significantly in both countries which may result in indirect changes in their predators' distribution. In contrast, by 2060 in Canada, the realized habitat of 76% of species will change (55% will lose, 21% will gain) while in the USA, the realized habitat of 85% of species will change (65% will lose, 20% will gain). If all else were held constant, the ecosystem is projected to change radically based on thermal habitat alone. The magnitude of the 2060 warming projection (∼1.5-3°C) was observed in 2012 affirming that research is needed on effects of extreme "weather" in addition to increasing mean temperature. Our approach can be used to aggregate at smaller spatial scales where temperate/boreal species are hypothesized to have a greater loss at ∼40°N. The uncertainty associated with climate change forecasts is large, yet resource management agencies still have to address climate change. How? Since many fishery agencies do not plan beyond 5 years, a logical way forward is to incorporate a "realized thermal habitat index" into the stock assessment process. Over time, decisions would be influenced by the amount of suitable thermal habitat, in concert with gradual or extreme warming.

How have fisheries affected parasite communities?

To understand how fisheries affect parasites, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies that contrasted parasite assemblages in fished and unfished areas. Parasite diversity was lower in hosts from fished areas. Larger hosts had a greater abundance of parasites, suggesting that fishing might reduce the abundance of parasites by selectively removing the largest, most heavily parasitized individuals. After controlling for size, the effect of fishing on parasite abundance varied according to whether the host was fished and the parasite's life cycle. Parasites of unfished hosts were more likely to increase in abundance in response to fishing than were parasites of fished hosts, possibly due to compensatory increases in the abundance of unfished hosts. While complex life cycle parasites tended to decline in abundance in response to fishing, directly transmitted parasites tended to increase. Among complex life cycle parasites, those with fished hosts tended to decline in abundance in response to fishing, while those with unfished hosts tended to increase. However, among directly transmitted parasites, responses did not differ between parasites with and without fished hosts. This work suggests that parasite assemblages are likely to change substantially in composition in increasingly fished ecosystems, and that parasite life history and fishing status of the host are important in predicting the response of individual parasite species or groups to fishing.

Evolutionary impact assessment: accounting for evolutionary consequences of fishing in an ecosystem approach to fisheries management

Managing fisheries resources to maintain healthy ecosystems is one of the main goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). While a number of international treaties call for the implementation of EAF, there are still gaps in the underlying methodology. One aspect that has received substantial scientific attention recently is fisheries-induced evolution (FIE). Increasing evidence indicates that intensive fishing has the potential to exert strong directional selection on life-history traits, behaviour, physiology, and morphology of exploited fish. Of particular concern is that reversing evolutionary responses to fishing can be much more difficult than reversing demographic or phenotypically plastic responses. Furthermore, like climate change, multiple agents cause FIE, with effects accumulating over time. Consequently, FIE may alter the utility derived from fish stocks, which in turn can modify the monetary value living aquatic resources provide to society. Quantifying and predicting the evolutionary effects of fishing is therefore important for both ecological and economic reasons. An important reason this is not happening is the lack of an appropriate assessment framework. We therefore describe the evolutionary impact assessment (EvoIA) as a structured approach for assessing the evolutionary consequences of fishing and evaluating the predicted evolutionary outcomes of alternative management options. EvoIA can contribute to EAF by clarifying how evolution may alter stock properties and ecological relations, support the precautionary approach to fisheries management by addressing a previously overlooked source of uncertainty and risk, and thus contribute to sustainable fisheries.

Synergies between climate and management for Atlantic cod fisheries at high latitudes

The widespread depletion of commercially exploited marine living resources is often seen as a general failure of management and results in criticism of contemporary management procedures. When populations show dramatic and positive changes in population size, this invariably leads to questions about whether favorable climatic conditions or good management (or both) were responsible. The Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) stock has recently increased markedly and the spawning stock biomass is now at an unprecedented high. We identify the crucial social and environmental factors that made this unique growth possible. The relationship between vital rates of Barents Sea cod stock productivity (recruitment, growth, and mortality) and environment is investigated, followed by simulations of population size under different management scenarios. We show that the recent sustained reduction in fishing mortality, facilitated by the implementation of a "harvest control rule," was essential to the increase in population size. Simulations show that a drastic reduction in fishing mortality has resulted in a doubling of the total population biomass compared with that expected under the former management regime. However, management alone was not solely responsible. We document that prevailing climate, operating through several mechanistic links, positively reinforced management actions. Heightened temperature resulted in an increase in the extent of the suitable feeding area for Barents Sea cod, likely offering a release from density-dependent effects (for example, food competition and cannibalism) through prolonged overlap with prey and improved adult stock productivity. Management and climate may thus interact to give a positive outlook for exploited high-latitude marine resources.

Decadal changes in zooplankton of the Northeast U.S. continental shelf

The abundance of the subarctic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus, and temperate, shelf copepod, Centropages typicus, was estimated from samples collected bi-monthly over the Northeast U.S. continental shelf (NEUS) from 1977–2010. Latitudinal variation in long term trends and seasonal patterns for the two copepod species were examined for four sub-regions: the Gulf of Maine (GOM), Georges Bank (GB), Southern New England (SNE), and Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). Results suggested that there was significant difference in long term variation between northern region (GOM and GB), and the MAB for both species. C. finmarchicus generally peaked in May – June throughout the entire study region and Cen. typicus had a more complex seasonal pattern. Time series analysis revealed that the peak time for Cen. typicus switched from November – December to January - March after 1985 in the MAB. The long term abundance of C. finmarchicus showed more fluctuation in the MAB than the GOM and GB, whereas the long term abundance of Cen. typicus was more variable in the GB than other sub-regions. Alongshore transport was significantly correlated with the abundance of C. finmarchicus, i.e., more water from north, higher abundance for C. finmarchicus. The abundance of Cen. typicus showed positive relationship with the Gulf Stream north wall index (GSNWI) in the GOM and GB, but the GSNWI only explained 12–15% of variation in Cen. typicus abundance. In general, the alongshore current was negatively correlated with the GSNWI, suggesting that Cen. typicus is more abundant when advection from the north is less. However, the relationship between Cen. typicus and alongshore transport was not significant. The present study highlights the importance of spatial scales in the study of marine populations: observed long term changes in the northern region were different from the south for both species.

Dietary niche expansion of a kelp forest predator recovering from intense commercial exploitation

Marine ecosystems are increasingly at risk from overexploitation and fisheries collapse. As managers implement recovery plans, shifts in species interactions may occur broadly with potential consequences for ecosystem structure and function. In kelp forests off San Nicolas Island, California, USA, we describe striking changes in size structure and life history traits (e.g., size at maturation and sex change) of a heavily fished, ecologically important predator, the California sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher). These changes occurred in two phases: (1) after intense commercial fishery exploitation in the late 1990s and (2) following recovery in the late 2000s, nearly a decade after management intervention. Using gut contents and stable-isotope values of sheephead and their prey, we found evidence for a dietary niche expansion upon recovery of population size structure to include increased consumption of sea urchins and other mobile invertebrate grazers by larger sized fish. By examining historical diet data and a time series of benthic community composition, we conclude that changes in dietary niche breadth are more likely due to the recovery of size structure from fishing than major shifts in prey availability. Size-dependent predator-prey interactions may have ecosystem consequences and management measures that preserve or restore size structure, and therefore historical trophic roles of key predators, could be vital for maintaining kelp forest ecosystem health.

Understanding patterns and processes in models of trophic cascades

Climate fluctuations and human exploitation are causing global changes in nutrient enrichment of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and declining abundances of apex predators. The resulting trophic cascades have had profound effects on food webs, leading to significant economic and societal consequences. However, the strength of cascades–that is the extent to which a disturbance is diminished as it propagates through a food web–varies widely between ecosystems, and there is no formal theory as to why this should be so. Some food chain models reproduce cascade effects seen in nature, but to what extent is this dependent on their formulation? We show that inclusion of processes represented mathematically as density-dependent regulation of either consumer uptake or mortality rates is necessary for the generation of realistic ‘top-down’ cascades in simple food chain models. Realistically modelled ‘bottom-up’ cascades, caused by changing nutrient input, are also dependent on the inclusion of density dependence, but especially on mortality regulation as a caricature of, e.g. disease and parasite dynamics or intraguild predation. We show that our conclusions, based on simple food chains, transfer to a more complex marine food web model in which cascades are induced by varying river nutrient inputs or fish harvesting rates.

Emerging asymmetric interactions between forage and predator fisheries impose management trade-offs

A size and trait-based marine community model was used to investigate interactions, with potential implications for yields, when a fishery targeting forage fish species (whose main adult diet is zooplankton) co-occurs with a fishery targeting larger-sized predator species. Predicted effects on the size structure of the fish community, growth and recruitment of fishes, and yield from the fisheries were used to identify management trade-offs among the different fisheries. Results showed that moderate fishing on forage fishes imposed only small effects on predator fisheries, whereas predator fisheries could enhance yield from forage fisheries under some circumstances.

Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations

North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river-specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate-driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations.

Behavioral signature of intraspecific competition and density dependence in colony-breeding marine predators

In populations of colony-breeding marine animals, foraging around colonies can lead to intraspecific competition. This competition affects individual foraging behavior and can cause density-dependent population growth. Where behavioral data are available, it may be possible to infer the mechanism of intraspecific competition. If these mechanics are understood, they can be used to predict the population-level functional response resulting from the competition. Using satellite relocation and dive data, we studied the use of space and foraging behavior of juvenile and adult gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) from a large (over 200,000) and growing population breeding at Sable Island, Nova Scotia (44.0 ^oN 60.0 ^oW). These data were first analyzed using a behaviorally switching state-space model to infer foraging areas followed by randomization analysis of foraging region overlap of competing age classes. Patterns of habitat use and behavioral time budgets indicate that young-of-year juveniles (YOY) were likely displaced from foraging areas near (<10 km) the breeding colony by adult females. This displacement was most pronounced in the summer. Additionally, our data suggest that YOY are less capable divers than adults and this limits the habitat available to them. However, other segregating mechanisms cannot be ruled out, and we discuss several alternate hypotheses. Mark–resight data indicate juveniles born between 1998 and 2002 have much reduced survivorship compared with cohorts born in the late 1980s, while adult survivorship has remained steady. Combined with behavioral observations, our data suggest YOY are losing an intraspecific competition between adults and juveniles, resulting in the currently observed decelerating logistic population growth. Competition theory predicts that intraspecific competition resulting in a clear losing competitor should cause compensatory population regulation. This functional response produces a smooth logistic growth curve as carrying capacity is approached, and is consistent with census data collected from this population over the past 50 years. The competitive mechanism causing compensatory regulation likely stems from the capital-breeding life-history strategy employed by gray seals. This strategy decouples reproductive success from resources available around breeding colonies and prevents females from competing with each other while young are dependent.

Trends in the state of nature and their implications for human well-being

Two major international initiatives - the Convention on Biological Diversity's target to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment - raise the profile of ecological data on the changing state of nature and its implications for human well-being. This paper is intended to provide a broad overview of current knowledge of these issues. Information on changes in the status of species, size of populations, and extent and condition of habitats is patchy, with little data available for many of the taxa, regions and habitats of greatest importance to the delivery of ecosystem services. However, what we do know strongly suggests that, while exceptions exist, the changes currently underway are for the most part negative, anthropogenic in origin, ominously large and accelerating. The impacts of these changes on human society are idiosyncratic and patchily understood, but for the most part also appear to be negative and substantial. Forecasting future changes is limited by our poor understanding of the cascading impacts of change within communities, of threshold effects, of interactions between the drivers of change, and of linkages between the state of nature and human well-being. In assessing future science needs, we not only see a strong role for ecological data and theory, but also believe that much closer collaboration with social and earth system scientists is essential if ecology is to have a strong bearing on policy makers.

Quantifying the balance between bycatch and predator or competitor release for nontarget species

If a species is bycatch in a fishery targeted at its competitor or predator, it experiences both direct anthropogenic mortality and indirect positive effects through species interactions. If the species involved interact strongly, the release from competition or predation can counteract or exceed the negative effects of bycatch. We used a set of two- and three-species community modules to analyze the relative importance of species interactions when modeling the overall effect of harvest with bycatch on a nontarget species. To measure the trade-off between direct mortality and indirect positive effects, we developed a "bycatch transition point" metric to determine, for different scenarios, what levels of bycatch shift overall harvest impact from positive to negative. Under strong direct competition with a targeted competitor, release from competition due to harvest leads to a net increase in abundance even under moderate levels of bycatch. For a three-species model with a shared obligate predator, the release from apparent competition exceeds direct competitive release and outweighs the decrease from bycatch mortality under a wide range of parameters. Therefore, in communities where a shared predator forms a strong link between the target and nontarget species, the effects of indirect interactions on populations can be larger than those of direct interactions. The bycatch transition point metric can be used for tightly linked species to evaluate the relative strengths of positive indirect effects and negative anthropogenic impacts such as bycatch, habitat degradation, and introduction of invasive species.

Sea otters homogenize mussel beds and reduce habitat provisioning in a rocky intertidal ecosystem

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) are keystone predators that consume a variety of benthic invertebrates, including the intertidal mussel, Mytilus californianus. By virtue of their competitive dominance, large size, and longevity, M. californianus are ecosystem engineers that form structurally complex beds that provide habitat for diverse invertebrate communities. We investigated whether otters affect mussel bed characteristics (i.e. mussel length distributions, mussel bed depth, and biomass) and associated community structure (i.e. biomass, alpha and beta diversity) by comparing four regions that varied in their histories of sea otter occupancy on the west coast of British Columbia and northern Washington. Mussel bed depth and average mussel lengths were 1.5 times lower in regions occupied by otters for >20 years than those occupied for <5 yrs. Diversity of mussel bed associated communities did not differ between regions; however, the total biomass of species associated with mussel beds was more than three-times higher where sea otters were absent. We examined alternative explanations for differences in mussel bed community structure, including among-region variation in oceanographic conditions and abundance of the predatory sea star Pisaster ochraceus. We cannot discount multiple drivers shaping mussel beds, but our findings indicate the sea otters are an important one. We conclude that, similar to their effects on subtidal benthic invertebrates, sea otters reduce the size distributions of intertidal mussels and, thereby, habitat available to support associated communities. Our study indicates that by reducing populations of habitat-providing intertidal mussels, sea otters may have substantial indirect effects on associated communities.

Predators with multiple ontogenetic niche shifts have limited potential for population growth and top-down control of their prey

Catastrophic collapses of top predators have revealed trophic cascades and community structuring by top-down control. When populations fail to recover after a collapse, this may indicate alternative stable states in the system. Overfishing has caused several of the most compelling cases of these dynamics, and in particular Atlantic cod stocks exemplify such lack of recovery. Often, competition between prey species and juvenile predators is hypothesized to explain the lack of recovery of predator populations. The predator is then considered to compete with its prey for one resource when small and to subsequently shift to piscivory. Yet predator life history is often more complex than that, including multiple ontogenetic diet shifts. Here we show that no alternative stable states occur when predators in an intermediate life stage feed on an additional resource (exclusive to the predator) before switching to piscivory, because predation and competition between prey and predator do not simultaneously structure community dynamics. We find top-down control by the predator only when there is no feedback from predator foraging on the additional resource. Otherwise, the predator population dynamics are governed by a bottleneck in individual growth occurring in the intermediate life stage. Therefore, additional resources for predators may be beneficial or detrimental for predator population growth and strongly influence the potential for top-down community control.

Millennial-scale isotope records from a wide-ranging predator show evidence of recent human impact to oceanic food webs

Human exploitation of marine ecosystems is more recent in oceanic than near shore regions, yet our understanding of human impacts on oceanic food webs is comparatively poor. Few records of species that live beyond the continental shelves date back more than 60 y, and the sheer size of oceanic regions makes their food webs difficult to study, even in modern times. Here, we use stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes to study the foraging history of a generalist, oceanic predator, the Hawaiian petrel (Pterodroma sandwichensis), which ranges broadly in the Pacific from the equator to near the Aleutian Islands. Our isotope records from modern and ancient, radiocarbon-dated bones provide evidence of over 3,000 y of dietary stasis followed by a decline of ca. 1.8‰ in δ(15)N over the past 100 y. Fishery-induced trophic decline is the most likely explanation for this sudden shift, which occurs in genetically distinct populations with disparate foraging locations. Our isotope records also show that coincident with the apparent decline in trophic level, foraging segregation among petrel populations decreased markedly. Because variation in the diet of generalist predators can reflect changing availability of their prey, a foraging shift in wide-ranging Hawaiian petrel populations suggests a relatively rapid change in the composition of oceanic food webs in the Northeast Pacific. Understanding and mitigating widespread shifts in prey availability may be a critical step in the conservation of endangered marine predators such as the Hawaiian petrel.

Change in fish community structure in the Barents Sea

Change in oceanographic conditions causes structural alterations in marine fish communities, but this effect may go undetected as most monitoring programs until recently mainly have focused on oceanography and commercial species rather than on whole ecosystems. In this paper, the objective is to describe the spatial and temporal changes in the Barents Sea fish community in the period 1992–2004 while taking into consideration the observed abundance and biodiversity patterns for all 82 observed fish species. We found that the spatial structure of the Barents Sea fish community was determined by abiotic factors such as temperature and depth. The observed species clustered into a deep assemblage, a warm water southern assemblage, both associated with Atlantic water, and a cold water north-eastern assemblage associated with mixed water. The latitude of the cold water NE and warm water S assemblages varied from year to year, but no obvious northward migration was observed over time. In the period 1996–1999 we observed a significant reduction in total fish biomass, abundance, mean fish weight, and a change in community structure including an increase in the pelagic/demersal ratio. This change in community structure is probably due to extremely cold conditions in 1996 impacting on a fish community exposed to historically high fishing rates. After 1999 the fish community variables such as biomass, abundance, mean weight, P/D ratio as well as community composition did not return to levels of the early 90s, although fishing pressure and climatic conditions returned to earlier levels.

The Marine Mammal Protection Act at 40: status, recovery, and future of U.S. marine mammals

Passed in 1972, the Marine Mammal Protection Act has two fundamental objectives: to maintain U.S. marine mammal stocks at their optimum sustainable populations and to uphold their ecological role in the ocean. The current status of many marine mammal populations is considerably better than in 1972. Take reduction plans have been largely successful in reducing direct fisheries bycatch, although they have not been prepared for all at-risk stocks, and fisheries continue to place marine mammals as risk. Information on population trends is unknown for most (71%) stocks; more stocks with known trends are improving than declining: 19% increasing, 5% stable, and 5% decreasing. Challenges remain, however, and the act has generally been ineffective in treating indirect impacts, such as noise, disease, and prey depletion. Existing conservation measures have not protected large whales from fisheries interactions or ship strikes in the northwestern Atlantic. Despite these limitations, marine mammals within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone appear to be faring better than those outside, with fewer species in at-risk categories and more of least concern.

Stream hydrology limits recovery of riparian ecosystems after wolf reintroduction

Efforts to restore ecosystems often focus on reintroducing apex predators to re-establish coevolved relationships among predators, herbivores and plants. The preponderance of evidence for indirect effects of predators on terrestrial plant communities comes from ecosystems where predators have been removed. Far less is known about the consequences of their restoration. The effects of removal and restoration are unlikely to be symmetrical because removing predators can create feedbacks that reinforce the effects of predator loss. Observational studies have suggested that the reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National Park initiated dramatic restoration of riparian ecosystems by releasing willows from excessive browsing by elk. Here, we present results from a decade-long experiment in Yellowstone showing that moderating browsing alone was not sufficient to restore riparian zones along small streams. Instead, restoration of willow communities depended on removing browsing and restoring hydrological conditions that prevailed before the removal of wolves. The 70-year absence of predators from the ecosystem changed the disturbance regime in a way that was not reversed by predator reintroduction. We conclude that predator restoration may not quickly repair effects of predator removal in ecosystems.

Evolutionary adaptation of marine zooplankton to global change

Predicting the response of the biota to global change remains a formidable endeavor. Zooplankton face challenges related to global warming, ocean acidification, the proliferation of toxic algal blooms, and increasing pollution, eutrophication, and hypoxia. They can respond to these changes by phenotypic plasticity or genetic adaptation. Using the concept of the evolution of reaction norms, I address how adaptive responses can be unequivocally discerned from phenotypic plasticity. To date, relatively few zooplankton studies have been designed for such a purpose. As case studies, I review the evidence for zooplankton adaptation to toxic algal blooms, hypoxia, and climate change. Predicting the response of zooplankton to global change requires new information to determine (a) the trade-offs and costs of adaptation, (b) the rates of evolution versus environmental change, (c) the consequences of adaptation to stochastic or cyclic (toxic algal blooms, coastal hypoxia) versus directional (temperature, acidification, open ocean hypoxia) environmental change, and (d) the interaction of selective pressures, and evolutionary and ecological processes, in promoting or hindering adaptation.

Collapse of a marine mammal species driven by human impacts

Understanding historical roles of species in ecosystems can be crucial for assessing long term human impacts on environments, providing context for management or restoration objectives, and making conservation evaluations of species status. In most cases limited historical abundance data impedes quantitative investigations, but harvested species may have long-term data accessible from hunting records. Here we make use of annual hunting records for Caspian seals (Pusa caspica) dating back to the mid-19^th century, and current census data from aerial surveys, to reconstruct historical abundance using a hind-casting model. We estimate the minimum numbers of seals in 1867 to have been 1–1.6 million, but the population declined by at least 90% to around 100,000 individuals by 2005, primarily due to unsustainable hunting throughout the 20^th century. This collapse is part of a broader picture of catastrophic ecological change in the Caspian over the 20^th Century. Our results combined with fisheries data show that the current biomass of top predators in the Caspian is much reduced compared to historical conditions. The potential for the Caspian and other similar perturbed ecosystems to sustain natural resources of much greater biological and economic value than at present depends on the extent to which a number of anthropogenic impacts can be harnessed.