Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts

OsMLP423 Is a Positive Regulator of Tolerance to Drought and Salt Stresses in Rice

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is one of the main food crops for human survival, and its yield is often restricted by abiotic stresses. Drought and soil salinity are among the most damaging abiotic stresses affecting today's agriculture. Given the importance of abscisic acid (ABA) in plant growth and abiotic stress responses, it is very important to identify new genes involved in ABA signal transduction. We screened a drought-inducing gene containing about 158 amino acid residues from the transcriptome library of rice exposed to drought treatment, and we found ABA-related cis-acting elements and multiple drought-stress-related cis-acting elements in its promoter sequence. The results of real-time PCR showed that OsMLP423 was strongly induced by drought and salt stresses. The physiological and biochemical phenotype analysis of transgenic plants confirmed that overexpression of OsMLP423 enhanced the tolerance to drought and salt stresses in rice. The expression of OsMLP423-GFP fusion protein indicated that OsMLP423 was located in both the cell membrane system and nucleus. Compared with the wild type, the overexpressed OsMLP423 showed enhanced sensitivity to ABA. Physiological analyses showed that the overexpression of OsMLP423 may regulate the water loss efficiency and ABA-responsive gene expression of rice plants under drought and salt stresses, and it reduces membrane damage and the accumulation of reactive oxygen species. These results indicate that OsMLP423 is a positive regulator of drought and salinity tolerance in rice, governing the tolerance of rice to abiotic stresses through an ABA-dependent pathway. Therefore, this study provides a new insight into the physiological and molecular mechanisms of OsMLP423-mediated ABA signal transduction participating in drought and salt stresses.

Anomalous snow events increase mortality for a winter-adapted species

Winter is a costly time for animals, requiring individuals to adapt to increased energetic costs, and reduced resources. Porcupines (Erethizon dorsatum Linnaeus, 1758) confront winter by storing and catabolizing somatic stores. Increasing temperatures and attenuated snow conditions due to climate change increase porcupine survival, but impacts of greater weather variability has not been explored. In April of 2018, an anomalously heavy and late snowstorm occurred at our long-term study site in central Wisconsin followed by multiple mortalities among adult porcupines. We assessed cause of mortality and determined nutritional condition by extracting bone marrow, and quantifying lipid content. Porcupines that died following the snow event had lower fat stores than the fall 2019 group, and likely died of starvation. We estimated survival of female porcupines during the winters 2012 & 2015-2018 to assess the effects of snow conditions and nutritional condition on survival. Survival declined with increased snow depth but increased with improved nutritional condition. The mass starvation event we observed in 2018 appeared to have resulted from deep snow increasing locomotive costs and reducing nutritional condition. As climate change increases the frequency of extreme weather events, including extreme snowfalls, we predict that the frequency of such clustered mortalities will increase.

Increase in rainfall intensity promotes soil nematode diversity but offset by nitrogen addition in a temperate grassland

Precipitation regime in arid and semi-arid regions is exhibiting a trend of increase in rainfall intensity but reduction in frequency under global climate change. In addition, nitrogen (N) deposition occurs simultaneously in the same regions. Nematodes are the dominant soil biota in terrestrial ecosystems and are involved in various underground processes. How the diversity of nematode communities responds to changing precipitation regime and how N deposition regulates the responses remain unclear. Here, we performed a field experiment initiated in 2012 to examine the effect of changes in the precipitation regime (2 mm precipitation intensity, 5 mm precipitation intensity, 10 mm precipitation intensity, 20 mm precipitation intensity, and 40 mm precipitation intensity) and N addition (10 g N m^-2 yr^-1) on soil nematode community in a semi-arid grassland in Inner Mongolia of China. We found that the abundance and diversity of nematodes increased under the treatments with fewer but stronger precipitation events (the largest abundance of total nematodes was 1458.37 individuals/100 g dry soil occurred under 40 mm intensity treatment). However, N addition reduced nematode diversity under these treatments, which largely offset the positive effects of increased rainfall intensity alone. Soil pH and plant belowground biomass were the main factors affecting nematode diversity. Our results imply that, as a consequence of global climate change, an increase in the intensity of rainfall events in the coming decades may favor the nematode communities within arid and semi-arid ecosystems. However, this positive effect may be largely offset by soil acidification in the regions experiencing heavy N deposition.

Community response of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi to extreme drought in a cold-temperate grassland

Climate extremes pose enormous threats to natural ecosystems. Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are key plant symbionts that can affect plant community dynamics and ecosystem stability. However, knowledge about how AM fungal communities respond to climate extremes in natural ecosystems remains elusive. Based on a grassland extreme drought experiment in Inner Mongolia, we investigated the response of AM fungal communities to extreme drought in association with plant communities. The experiment simulated two types of extreme drought (chronic/intense) of once-in-20-year occurrence. AM fungal richness and community composition exhibited high sensitivity to extreme drought and were more sensitive to intense drought than chronic drought. This community sensitivity (i.e. decline in richness and shifts in community composition) of AM fungi can be jointly explained by soil moisture, plant richness, and aboveground productivity. Notably, the robustness of the plant-AM fungal community co-response increased with drought intensity. Our results indicate that AM fungal communities are sensitive to climate extremes, and we propose that the plant community mediates AM fungal community responses. Given the ubiquitous nature of AM associations, their climate sensitivity may have profound consequences on plant communities and ecosystem stability under climate change.

Differential temperature responses between Plutella xylostella and its specialist endo-larval parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum-Implications for biological control

Understanding the thermal dynamics of host-parasitoid interactions is crucial to predicting how biological control of pest insects by parasitoids might be affected by geographic location and climate change. We compared performance traits of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) and its solitary endo-larval parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae), over a wide range of constant rearing temperatures (10-30°C). Parasitoids reared at 30°C experienced reductions in pupation rate, pupal mass, egg load, and adult life span when compared with those reared at lower temperatures. Our analyses of the fate of parasitoids and their hosts and intergenerational population growth at different rearing temperatures show that D. semiclausum and P. xylostella respond differently to temperature, leading to divergent outcomes under different temperature conditions. Some parasitoid larvae could not complete development at 30°C, the temperature at which the host biomass was least and the metabolic demands of the parasitoid could be high, suggesting that parasitoid development might be constrained by lack of host resources at higher temperatures. We discuss the potential mechanisms of parasitoid susceptibility to elevated temperatures, which likely explain the pronounced seasonal dynamics of D. semiclausum in subtropical regions and its failure to establish in lowland tropical regions, where P. xylostella is a serious pest. Similar interactions in other host-parasitoid associations would constrain the efficacy of parasitoids as biological control agents as global temperatures increase.

A Review of Village Ecosystem Vulnerability and Resilience: Implications for the Rocky Desertification Control

Under the background of global environmental change, a huge impact has been made on the village ecosystem, which leads to disorder of structure and function of the village ecosystem. The current management measures of the village have failed in allowing the village to achieve sustainable development. Research on the vulnerability and resilience of the village ecosystem is helpful in regards to the ecological restoration of the village. The research status and progress in regards to the vulnerability and resilience of the village ecosystem are not clear, and the summary of research results and problems is insufficient. Based on 87 related literatures, this paper focuses on the current status and progress of village ecosystem vulnerability and resilience research, and reveals the current research results and shortcomings of village ecosystem vulnerability and resilience. We found that: (1) the research on vulnerability and resilience of the village ecosystem is on the rise; (2) the research mainly focuses on the index system, monitoring and assessment, mechanism research and strategy research. The monitoring and assessment research is the most prominent, which mainly discusses the research methods, the vulnerability and the resilience of the village ecosystem; (3) the study area is mainly concentrated in Asia, North America and Africa. Research institutions are mainly institutions of higher learning and research institutes (centers). Finally, this paper finds that major scientific and technical studies such as the construction of indicator systems and the study of governance strategies in the study of vulnerability and resilience of village ecosystems are lagging behind. In future research, we should deepen the research on the concept and connotation of vulnerability and resilience. We must establish a scientific and reasonable research framework for vulnerability and resilience of the village ecosystem. We should also strengthen and improve the index system of vulnerability and resilience of the village ecosystem. We should strengthen research on the impact mechanisms and governance strategies of vulnerability and resilience, and apply the research on vulnerability and resilience to the planning and governance of the village ecosystem.

Investigating Plant Response to Soil Characteristics and Slope Positions in a Small Catchment

Methods enabling stakeholders to receive information on plant stress in agricultural settings in a timely manner can help mitigate a possible decrease in plant productivity. The present work aims to study the soil–plant interaction using field measurements of plant reflectance, soil water content, and selected soil physical and chemical parameters. Particular emphasis was placed on sloping transects. We further compared ground- and Sentinel-2 satellite-based Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data in different land use types. The Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) and NDVI were measured concurrently with calculating the fraction of absorbed photochemically active radiation (fAPAR) and leaf area index (LAI) values of three vegetation types (a grassland, three vineyard sites, and a cropland with maize). Each land use site had an upper and a lower study point of a given slope. The NDVI, fAPAR, and LAI averaged values were the lowest for the grassland (0.293, 0.197, and 0.51, respectively), which showed the highest signs of water stress. Maize had the highest NDVI values (0.653) among vegetation types. Slope position affected NDVI, PRI, and fAPAR values significantly for the grassland and cropland (p < 0.05), while the soil water content (SWC) was different for all three vineyard sites (p < 0.05). The strongest connections were observed between soil physical and chemical parameters and NDVI values for the vineyard samples and the selected soil parameters and PRI for the grassland. Measured and satellite-retrieved NDVI values of the different land use types were compared, and strong correlations (r = 0.761) between the methods were found. For the maize, the satellite-based NDVI values were higher, while for the grassland they were slightly lower compared to the field-based measurements. Our study indicated that incorporating Sentinel-derived NDVI can greatly improve the value of field monitoring and provides an opportunity to extend field research in more depth. The present study further highlights the close relations in the soil–plant–water system, and continuous monitoring can greatly help in developing site-specific climate change mitigating methods.

Modulating Effects of Landscape Characteristics on Responses to Warming Differ Among Butterfly Species

Understanding and predicting biodiversity responses to climate change are vital to inform conservation strategies, but this is not straightforward as climate change responses depend on the landscape context and differ among species. Here, we quantified changes in the distribution and abundance of 30 butterfly species in the Netherlands in relation to climate change and in landscapes that vary in the amount and connectivity of (semi-)natural vegetation (SNV). We obtained yearly counts of well-monitored butterfly species from 327 time series over 27 years (1992–2018). We used these counts to build mixed effect hurdle models to relate species’ occurrence and abundance to temperature and the amount and connectivity of SNV around the sites. For 55% of the butterfly species, an increased amount or connectivity of SNV corresponded with stronger increases or reduced decreases in occurrence in response to warming, indicating that SNV may facilitate range expansion or mitigate extirpations due to climate change. However, for the occurrence of the other species we found no or a negative interaction between warming and SNV. Further, we did not find indications of a mitigating effect of SNV on abundance responses to warming. Our results thus suggest that increasing the amount and connectivity of SNV does not offer a “one-size-fits-all” solution, highlighting the need for additional measures if butterfly diversity is to be conserved.

Chasing genetic correlation breakers to stimulate population resilience to climate change

Global climate change introduces new combinations of environmental conditions, which is expected to increase stress on plants. This could affect many traits in multiple ways that are as yet unknown but will likely require the modification of existing genetic relationships among functional traits potentially involved in local adaptation. Theoretical evolutionary studies have determined that it is an advantage to have an excess of recombination events under heterogeneous environmental conditions. Our study, conducted on a population of radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don), was able to identify individuals that show high genetic recombination at genomic regions, which potentially include pleiotropic or collocating QTLs responsible for the studied traits, reaching a prediction accuracy of 0.80 in random cross-validation and 0.72 when whole family was removed from the training population and predicted. To identify these highly recombined individuals, a training population was constructed from correlation breakers, created through tandem selection of parents in the previous generation and their consequent mating. Although the correlation breakers showed lower observed heterogeneity possibly due to direct selection in both studied traits, the genomic regions with statistically significant differences in the linkage disequilibrium pattern showed higher level of heretozygosity, which has the effect of decomposing unfavourable genetic correlation. We propose undertaking selection of correlation breakers under current environmental conditions and using genomic predictions to increase the frequency of these ’recombined’ individuals in future plantations, ensuring the resilience of planted forests to changing climates. The increased frequency of such individuals will decrease the strength of the population-level genetic correlations among traits, increasing the opportunity for new trait combinations to be developed in the future.

Effects of Urbanization on Extreme Climate Indices in the Valley of Mexico Basin

This study analyzes 50 annual climate change indices related to temperature and precipitation in the Valley of Mexico basin for the period 1951–2010. First, a quality and homogenization analysis of 90 weather stations (categorized as urban, suburban, and rural) in the basin was performed using the Climatol algorithm. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s slope method were applied to determine the existence of a trend and to estimate the magnitude of the change in extreme climate indices, respectively. To eliminate the serial correlation problem, the lag-1 method and the Patakamuri tests were used. Statistically significant positive trends were found for SU, TMm, TNm, TNn, TX90p, and WSDI, as well as negative ones for FD, TX10p, TN10p, CSDI, and HDDheat18. The results seem to support an influence of anthropogenic global warming on the study region, rather than local effects of urbanization. However, it is likely that some significant differences in the urban change rate of some indices could be due to local effects, such as the difference in land cover that occurs between urban and rural stations. Not enough statistically significant results were found for the climate change indices related to precipitation in most of the stations. Compared to other studies in the Mexico City area, the main contribution of this study is the analysis of 50 climate indices in a 60-year period working with a quality-controlled and homogenized database.

Modeling Water Quantity and Quality Nonlinearities for Watershed Adaptability to Hydroclimate Extremes in Agricultural Landscapes

Changing water supplies and demands, inherent to climate fluctuations and human activities, are pushing for a paradigm shift in water management worldwide. The occurrence of extreme hydrometeorological and climate events such as extended wet periods and droughts, compounded with contaminants, impair the access to water resources, demanding novel designs, construction, and management across multiple hydrologic scales and biogeochemical processes. A constraint to studying hydrologic and biogeochemical disturbances and improving best management practices for water quantity and quality at the watershed scale resides in the suitable monitoring, data availability, and the creation of frameworks. We hypothesize that streamflow and contaminants, simulated by the hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and evaluated during drought and extended wet periods, capture the nonlinearities of contaminants of multiple biogeochemical complexities, indicating the adaptive abilities of watersheds. Our objectives are to (1) use rain gauge and radar data and linear regression to consolidate long-term precipitation data to simulate streamflow and water quality using the SWAT model in the Shell Creek (SC) watershed, Nebraska, U.S.; (2) use drought and extended wet events analytics on observed and simulated hydroclimate and water quality variables to identify SWAT’s performance; and (3) identify the temporal attributions of streamflow and water quality to complex biogeochemical patterns of variability. We implement a watershed modeling approach using the SWAT model forced with rain gauge and radar to simulate the intraseasonal and interannual variability streamflow, sediments, nutrients, and atrazine loads in the SC watershed. SWAT performance uses a calibration period between 2000 and 2005 and a validation period between 2005 and 2007. We examine the model’s ability to simulate hydrologic and biogeochemical variables in response to dry and extended wet flow regimes. The hydrologic model forced by either radar or rain gages performs similarly in the calibration (NSE = 0.6) and validation (NSE = 0.92) periods. It reproduces medium flows closer to the observations, although it overestimates low–flows up to 0.1 m3/s while underestimates high flows by 1 m3/s. The water quality model shows higher NSE for streamflow and sediments followed by nutrients, whereas it poorly reproduces atrazine. We conclude that seasonal changes and hydroclimate conditions led to the emergence of patterns of variability associated to the nonlinearities and coupling between processes of natural and human-origin sources. As climate change propels the occurrence of hydroclimate extremes, the simulation of water quantity and quality nonlinearities—as properties of complex adaptive hydrologic systems—can contribute to improve the predictability of climate-resilient water resources.

Spatiotemporal Variations and Climatological Trends in Precipitation Indices in Shaanxi Province, China

Precipitation, as an important part of the hydrological cycle, is often related to flood and drought. In this study, we collected daily rainfall data from 21 rainfall stations in Shaanxi Province from 1961 to 2017, and calculated eight extreme climate indices. Annual and seasonal concentration indices (CI) were also calculated. The trends in the changes in precipitation were calculated using the M–K test and Sen’s slope. The results show that the precipitation correlation index and CI (concentration index) in Shaanxi Province are higher in the south and lower in the north. For the annual scale, the CI value ranges from 0.6369 to 0.6820, indicating that Shaanxi Province has a high precipitation concentration and an uneven distribution of annual precipitation. The eight extreme precipitation indices of most rainfall stations showed a downward trend during the study period, and more than half of the stations passed the 0.05 confidence interval test. Among them, the Z value of PRCPTOT (annual total precipitation in wet days) at Huashan station reached −6.5270. The lowest slope of PRCPTOT reached −14.3395. This shows that annual rainfall in Shaanxi Province has been decreasing in recent decades. These findings could be used to make decisions about water resources and drought risk management in Shaanxi Province, China.

Life history strategies of stream fishes linked to predictors of hydrologic stability

Life history theory provides a framework to understand environmental change based on species strategies for survival and reproduction under stable, cyclical, or stochastic environmental conditions. We evaluated environmental predictors of fish life history strategies in 20 streams intersecting a national park within the Potomac River basin in eastern North America. We sampled stream sites during 2018-2019 and collected 3801 individuals representing 51 species within 10 taxonomic families. We quantified life history strategies for species from their coordinates in an ordination space defined by trade-offs in spawning season duration, fecundity, and parental care characteristic of opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium strategies. Our analysis revealed important environmental predictors: Abundance of opportunistic strategists increased with low-permeability soils that produce flashy runoff dynamics and decreased with karst terrain (carbonate bedrock) where groundwater inputs stabilize stream flow and temperature. Conversely, abundance of equilibrium strategists increased in karst terrain indicating a response to more stable environmental conditions. Our study indicated that fish community responses to groundwater and runoff processes may be explained by species traits for survival and reproduction. Our findings also suggest the utility of life history theory for understanding ecological responses to destabilized environmental conditions under global climate change.

Radiative Cooling and Solar Heating Janus Films for Personal Thermal Management

Hot and cold seasonal temperature fluctuations pose a serious public health threat. Radiative thermal management has been shown to be an effective method for personal thermal management. However, the currently available materials cannot maintain human thermal comfort against the hot and cold seasonal temperature fluctuations, such as heating in cold weather or cooling in hot weather. Here, a Janus film that integrates the two opposite requirements of heating and cooling into one functional dual-mode film is fabricated. In cooling mode, the Al backing and embedded silicon dioxide (SiO₂) microparticle can achieve a high solar reflectivity (∼0.85) and high IR emissivity (∼0.95) to induce a temperature drop of ∼2 °C. In contrast, the embedded carbon nanotubes (CNTs) can improve solar absorption (∼0.95) and induce a temperature increase of ∼7 °C. Owing to its radiative cooling and solar heating capability and compatibility with large-scale production, this Janus film is promising to bring new insights into the design of the next-generation functional textiles.

Differential Physiological, Transcriptomic, and Metabolomic Responses of Paspalum wettsteinii Under High-Temperature Stress

Global warming has far-reaching effects on plant growth and development. As a warm-season forage grass, Paspalum wettsteinii is highly adaptable to high temperatures. However, the response mechanism of P. wettsteinii under high-temperature stress is still unclear. Therefore, we investigated the physiological indicators, transcriptome and metabolome of P. wettsteinii under different heat stress treatments. Plant height, the activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), peroxidase (POD), and catalase (CAT), and the contents of soluble sugar, proline, chlorophyll a, and chlorophyll b increased and then decreased, while the malondialdehyde (MDA) content decreased and then increased with increasing heat stress. Transcriptomic analysis revealed that genes related to energy and carbohydrate metabolism, heat shock proteins (HSPs), and transcription factors (TFs), secondary metabolite biosynthesis and the antioxidant system significantly changed to varying degrees. Metabolomic analysis showed that only free fatty acids were downregulated, while amino acids and their derivatives, organic acids, flavonoids, and sugars were both up- and downregulated under heat stress. These combined analyses revealed that growth was promoted at 25-40°C, while at 45°C, excess reactive oxygen species (ROS) damage reduced antioxidant and osmoregulatory effects and inactivated genes associated with the light and electron transport chains (ETCs), as well as damaged the PS II system and inhibited photosynthesis. A small number of genes and metabolites were upregulated to maintain the basic growth of P. wettsteinii. The physiological and biochemical changes in response to high-temperature stress were revealed, and the important metabolites and key genes involved in the response to high temperature were identified, providing an important reference for the physiological and molecular regulation of high-temperature stress in plants.

Metabolic Adaptation of a Globally Important Diatom following 700 Generations of Selection under a Warmer Temperature

Diatoms, accounting for 40% of the marine primary production and 20% of global carbon dioxide fixation, are threatened by the ongoing ocean warming (OW). However, whether and how these ecologically important phytoplankton adapt to OW remains poorly unknown. Here, we experimentally examined the metabolic adaptation of a globally important diatom species Skeletonema dohrnii (S. dohrnii) to OW at two elevated temperatures (24 and 28 °C compared with 20 °C) under short-term (∼300 generations) and long-term (∼700 generations) selection. Both warming levels significantly increased the cell growth rate but decreased the chlorophyll a content. The contents of particulate organic carbon (POC) and particulate organic nitrogen (PON) decreased significantly initially (i.e., until 300 generations) at two temperature treatments but completely recovered after 700 generations of selection, suggesting that S. dohrnii ultimately developed thermal adaptation. Proteomic analysis demonstrated that elevated temperatures upregulated energy metabolism via glycolysis, tricarboxylic acid cycle, and fatty acid oxidation as well as nitrogen acquisition and utilization, which in turn reduced substance storage because of trade-off in the 300th generation, thus decreasing POC and PON. Interestingly, populations at both elevated temperatures exhibited significant proteome plasticity in the 700th generation, as primarily demonstrated by the increased lipid catabolism and glucose accumulation, accounting for the recovery of POC and PON. Changes occurring in cells at the 300th and 700th generations demonstrate that S. dohrnii can adapt to the projected OW, and readjusting the energy metabolism is an important adaptive strategy.

Increasing Arctic Tundra Flooding Threatens Wildlife Habitat and Survival: Impacts on the Critically Endangered Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus)

Climate change is causing Arctic temperatures to increase at least twice as fast as the planet on average. Temperature and precipitation are predicted to continue increasing, such that flooding might become more prevalent in the new Arctic. Increased flooding frequency and extreme flooding events may pose new threats to Arctic biodiversity through habitat disturbance and decreased survival. We used the Siberian crane (Grus leucogeranus) as a model organism to investigate how flooding influences nesting habitat availability and juvenile counts. When spring flooding destroys eggs, adults either do not raise any chicks or have reduced time to prepare them for their long migration to China, thus years with extensive flooding could negatively impact future crane generations. We used nest site observation data from 14 surveys between 1995 and 2019, habitat mapping based on Landsat 8 imagery, and species distribution modeling to predict Siberian crane potential nesting habitat. Nesting habitat loss due to extreme flooding was calculated by overlaying this potential nesting habitat with Global Surface Water data. The percent of potential flooded nest sites varied between 6.7–55% across years, with a significant increase between 2001 and 2018. Extreme flood events, as experienced in 2017 and 2018, eliminated almost half of the potential nesting habitat. Importantly, we found that the percentage of flooded nest sites across years was negatively correlated with the number of observed juveniles. The Arctic lowlands are exposed to seasonal water level fluctuations that species have evolved with and adapted to. Siberian cranes and other species depending on Arctic ecosystems are expected to continue adapting to changing flood conditions, but extreme flood events further threaten the long-term survival of critically endangered species. It is imperative to assess how ecosystems and species respond to climatic extremes to support Arctic conservation strategies.

A Quantitative Analysis of the Influence of Temperature Change on the Extreme Precipitation

As an essential part of the hydrological cycle, precipitation is usually associated with floods and droughts and is increasingly being paid attention to in the context of global warming. Analyzing the change trends and correlation of temperature and extreme precipitation indicators can effectively identify natural disasters. This study aimed to detect the correlation and change trends of temperature and extreme precipitation indicators in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2019. Panel vector autoregression (PVAR) models based on Stata software were used to detect the correlation between temperature and extreme precipitation indicators at 35 climatological stations throughout Inner Mongolia. The temperature and extreme precipitation indicator trends were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope method. The spatial distribution characteristics of the annual precipitation and rainfall intensity were more significant in the southeast and more minor in the northwest, while an increase in the annual wet days was noticeable to the northeast. The Granger cause tests of the temperature and the extreme precipitation indicators showed a correlation between each indicator and temperature at the significance level of 1%. The temperature positively correlated with only the rainfall intensity while negatively correlating with the remaining indicators. There is no doubt that trend analysis showed significant increasing trends in rainfall intensity at all stations, which means increased risk in extreme precipitation events. By contrast, the annual precipitation and annual wet days showed significant decreasing trends, which means that the precipitation is concentrated, and it is easier to form extreme precipitation events. The study can provide a basis for decision-making in water resources and drought/flood risk management in Inner Mongolia, China.

Protist Predation Influences the Temperature Response of Bacterial Communities

Temperature strongly influences microbial community structure and function, in turn contributing to global carbon cycling that can fuel further warming. Recent studies suggest that biotic interactions among microbes may play an important role in determining the temperature responses of these communities. However, how predation regulates these microbiomes under future climates is still poorly understood. Here, we assess whether predation by a key global bacterial consumer-protists-influences the temperature response of the community structure and function of a freshwater microbiome. To do so, we exposed microbial communities to two cosmopolitan protist species-Tetrahymena thermophila and Colpidium sp.-at two different temperatures, in a month-long microcosm experiment. While microbial biomass and respiration increased with temperature due to community shifts, these responses changed over time and in the presence of protists. Protists influenced microbial biomass and respiration rate through direct and indirect effects on bacterial community structure, and predator presence actually reduced microbial respiration at elevated temperature. Indicator species analyses showed that these predator effects were mostly determined by phylum-specific bacterial responses to protist density and cell size. Our study supports previous findings that temperature is an important driver of microbial communities but also demonstrates that the presence of a large predator can mediate these responses to warming.

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Typical High-Temperature Cities in Various Provinces in China

Global climate change results in an increased risk of high urban temperatures, making it crucial to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the high-temperature risk of urban areas. Based on the data of 194 meteorological stations in China from 1986 to 2015 and statistical yearbooks and statistical bulletins from 2015, we used GIS technology and mathematical statistics to evaluate high-temperature spatial and temporal characteristics, high-temperature risk, and high-temperature vulnerability of 31 cities across China. Over the past 30 years, most Chinese cities experienced 5–8 significant oscillation cycles of high-temperature days. A 15-year interval analysis of high-temperature characteristics found that 87% of the cities had an average of 5.44 more high-temperature days in the 15-year period from 2001 to 2015 compared to the period from 1986 to 2000. We developed five high-temperature risk levels and six vulnerability levels. Against the background of a warming climate, we discuss risk mitigation strategies and the importance of early warning systems.

Impact of Climate Change on Productivity and Technical Efficiency in Canadian Crop Production

There is a wide consensus that throughout the 20th century climate has changed globally, with many parts of the world facing increases in average temperatures as well as an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. While the existing climate models can predict future changes in climate with a high degree of confidence, the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security are still not well understood. In this work, we investigate the link between climate change, output, and inefficiency in Canadian crop production using provincial data for the period of 1972–2016. This study has built a unique climate dataset from station-level weather data and uses a panel stochastic frontier model to explore the effect of climatic conditions on crop production and inefficiency. The results reveal that climatic variables are significant predictors of both the maximum potential output (frontier) and technical inefficiency. The combined effect of higher temperatures and lower precipitation, as reflected in a lower Oury index, is a downward shift of the crop production frontier. While greater variability of daily temperatures during the growing season is found to have no statistically significant effect in the frontier equation, greater variation in rainfall results in a downward frontier shift. The results also show that weather shocks measured as a deviation from historical weather normals are significant predictors of technical inefficiency.

Climate Change Alters Soil Water Dynamics under Different Land Use Types

Land use and management affect soil hydrological processes, and the impacts can be further enhanced and accelerated due to climate change. In this study, we analyzed the possible long-term effects of different land use types on soil hydrological processes based on future climatic scenarios. Soil moisture and temperature probes were installed at four land use sites, a cropland, a vineyard, a meadow, and a forest area. Based on modeling of long-term changes in soil water content (SWC) using the HYDRUS 1D model, we found that changes in precipitation have a more pronounced effect on soil water content than changes in air temperature. Cropland is at the highest risk of inland water and SWC values above field capacity (FC). The number of days when the average SWC values are above FC is expected to increase up to 109.5 days/year from the current 52.4 days/year by 2081–2090 for the cropland. Our calculations highlight that the forest soil has the highest number of days per year where the SWC is below the wilting point (99.7 days/year), and based on the worst-case scenario, it can increase up to 224.7 days/year. However, general scenario-based estimates showed that vineyards are the most vulnerable to projected climate change in this area. Our study highlights the limitations of potential land use change for specific agricultural areas, and emphasizes the need to implement water retention measures to keep these agricultural settings sustainable.

'Fly to a Safer North': Distributional Shifts of the Orchid Ophrys insectifera L. Due to Climate Change

Numerous orchid species around the world have already been affected by the ongoing climate change, displaying phenological alterations and considerable changes to their distributions. The fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.) is a well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, with a broad distribution across the continent. This study explores the effects of climate change on the range of O. insectifera, using a species distribution models (SDMs) framework that encompasses different climatic models and scenarios for the near- and long-term future. The species' environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards (as expected) but downhill (contrary to usual expectations) in the future. In addition, an overall range contraction is predicted under all investigated combinations of climatic models and scenarios. While this is moderate overall, it includes some regions of severe loss and other areas with major gains. Specifically, O. insectifera is projected to experience major area loss in its southern reaches (the Balkans, Italy and Spain), while it will expand its northern limits to North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries exhibiting the largest gains.

Driving Climatic Factors at Critical Plant Developmental Stages for Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Alpine Grassland Productivity

Determining the driving climatic factors at critical periods and potential legacy effects is crucial for grassland productivity predictions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, studies with limited and ex situ ground samples from highly heterogeneous alpine meadows brought great uncertainties. This study determined the key climatic factors at critical plant developmental stages and the impact of previous plant growth status for interannual aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) variations in different QTP grassland types. We hypothesize that the impact of climatic factors on grassland productivity varies in different periods and different vegetation types, while its legacy effects are not great. Pixel-based partial least squares regression was used to associate interannual ANPP with precipitation and air temperature at different developmental stages and prior-year ANPP from 2000 to 2019 using remote sensing techniques. Results indicated different findings from previous studies. Precipitation at the reproductive stage (July–August) was the most prominent controlling factor for ANPP which was also significantly affected by precipitation and temperature at the withering (September–October) and dormant stage (November–February), respectively. The influence of precipitation was more significant in alpine meadows than in alpine steppes, while the differentiated responses to climatic factors were attributed to differences in water consumption at different developmental stages induced by leaf area changes, bud sprouting, growth, and protection from frost damage. The prior-year ANPP showed a non-significant impact on ANPP of current year, except for alpine steppes, and this impact was much less than that of current-year climatic factors, which may be attributed to the reduced annual ANPP variations related to the inter-annual carbon circulation of alpine perennial herbaceous plants and diverse root/shoot ratios in different vegetation types. These findings can assist in improving the interannual ANPP predictions on the QTP under global climate change.

Extremes Rainfall Events on Riparian Flora and Vegetation in the Mediterranean Basin: A Challenging but Completely Unexplored Theme

In a global climate change scenario “Extreme climatic events” are expected to widely affect flora and vegetation in Med-regions, especially “Extremes Rainfall Events” which will have impacts on riparian environments. Aiming to provide an in-depth picture on the effects of these events on the riparian flora and vegetation in the Mediterranean Basin, especially focusing on islands, a bibliographic search was performed in the main international databases, which led to 571 articles published from 2000 to 2021. Most studies have analyzed these phenomena from the climatic point of view identifying three main topics “Rainfall”, “Global/Climate change”, and “Flood”. 81 papers concerned effects of extreme events on Mediterranean woodland formations and cultivated plants. A further analysis focused on European countries and Mediterranean bioregion using “Extreme rainfall events” and “Extreme rainfall and floods” as keywords. A low number of records relating to Mediterranean island regions was found, having Sicily as the study area. Moreover, seven articles had Sardinia as a study area, four of which referred to flora and vegetation. A lack of studies on the effects of extreme rainfall events on riparian flora and vegetation were highlighted. This review constitutes a call for researchers to explore extreme phenomena that have become recurrent in the Mediterranean Basin.

Heat Adaptive Capacity: What Causes the Differences Between Residents of Xiamen Island and Other Areas?

Extreme heat events caused by climate change have serious adverse effects on residents' health in many coastal metropolises in southeast China. Adaptive capacity (AC) is crucial to reduce heat vulnerability in the human-environment system. However, it is unclear whether changes in individual characteristics and socioeconomic conditions likely amplify or attenuate the impacts of residents' heat adaptive capacity (HAC) changes. Moreover, which public policies can be implemented by the authorities to improve the HAC of vulnerable groups remains unknown. We conducted a questionnaire survey of 630 residents of Xiamen, a typical coastal metropolis, in 2018. The effects of individual and household characteristics, and government actions on the residents' HAC were examined by using ordinal logistic regression analysis. Results show that the majority (48.10%) of Xiamen residents had a "medium" HAC level, followed by a "high" level (37.14%). On Xiamen Island, residents who settled locally for one-three years and spent less than one hour outdoors might report weaker HAC, and their HAC would not improve with increased air conditioning units in household. In other areas of Xiamen, residents with more rooms in their households, no educational experience, and building areas <50 m2 might report better HAC. Further, vulnerable groups, such as local residents and outdoor workers on Xiamen Island, people lacking educational experience and renters in other areas of Xiamen, showed better AC to hot weather than those in previous studies. Low-income groups should be given more attention by local governments and community groups as monthly household income played a positive role in improving Xiamen residents' HAC. Rational green spaces planning and cooling services, such as street sprinkling operations, provided by municipal departments can effectively bring benefits to Xiamen residents. Identification of basic conditions of AC has significant implications for practical promoting targeted measures or policies to reduce health damages and livelihood losses of urban residents during extreme heat events.

Density-dependent ecosystem service delivery under shifting temperatures by dung beetles

Increases in the frequency and magnitude of suboptimal temperatures as a result of climate change are subjecting insects to unprecedented stresses. This may negatively affect their fitness and the efficiency of their ecosystem service provision. Dung beetles are ecosystem service providers: through feeding on and burying dung, they facilitate nutrient recycling, secondary seed dispersal, parasite control, soil bioturbation and dung decomposition. As such, prediction of how dung beetles respond to multiple anthropogenic environmental changes is critical for the conservation of ecosystem services. Here, we quantified ecosystem services via dung utilisation and dung ball production in three telecoprid species: Allogymnopleurus indigaceous, Scarabaeus zambezianus and Khepher prodigiosus. We examined ecosystem service efficiency factorially under different beetle densities towards different dung masses and under three temperature treatments (21 °C, 28 °C and 35 °C). Khepher prodigiosus, exhibited greatest dung utilisation efficiency overall across dung masses, compared to both S. zambezianus and A. indigaceous. Dung removal was exhibited under all the tested temperatures by all tested species, and therefore the sub-optimal temperatures employed here did not fully inhibit ecosystem service delivery. However, emergent effects among temperatures, beetle species and beetle density further affected removal efficiency: S. zambezianus and A. indigaceous utilisation increased with both warming and beetle density, whereas K. prodigiosus performance was less temperature- and density-dependent. Beetles also tended to exhibit positive density-dependence as dung supply increased. The numbers of dung balls produced differed across species, and increased with temperature and densities, with S. zambezianus producing significantly most balls overall. Our study provides novel evidence for differential density-dependent ecosystem service delivery among species across stressful temperature regimes and emergent effects for dung mass utilisation. This information is essential for biodiversity-ecosystem-function and is critical for the conservation of functionally efficacious species, with implications for natural capital conservation policy in rapidly changing environments.

Containing the Risk of Phosphorus Pollution in Agricultural Watersheds

Phosphorus (P) is an essential nutrient to boost crop yields, but P runoff can cause nutrient over-enrichment in agricultural watersheds and can lead to irreversible effects on aquatic ecosystems and their biodiversity. Lake Erie is one prominent example as this watershed has experienced multiple episodes of harmful algal blooms over the last decades. Annual P loads crucially depend on yearly weather variations, which can create the risk of years with high runoff and excessive nutrient loads. Here we apply stochastic modeling to derive sustainable management strategies that balance crop yield optimization with environmental protection, while accounting for weather variability as well as weather trends as a result of climate change. We demonstrate that ignoring annual weather variations results in mitigation efforts for environmental pollution that are largely insufficient. Accounting explicitly for future variations in precipitation allows us to control the risk of emissions exceeding the P target loads. When realistic risk targets are imposed, we find that a package of additional measures is required to avoid P over-enrichment in the Lake Erie watershed. This package consists of a substantial reduction of P inputs (approximately 30% for different accepted risk levels), adoption of cover crops throughout the near- and mid-century, and cultivation of less nutrient-intensive crops (30% more soy at the expense of corn). Although climate change reinforces these conclusions, we find that the accepted risk level of exceeding P target loads is the predominant factor in defining a sustainable nutrient management policy.

Cooperation and Lateral Forces: Moving Beyond Bottom-Up and Top-Down Drivers of Animal Population Dynamics

Biologists have long known that animal population dynamics are regulated by a combination of bottom-up (resource availability) and top-down forces (predation). Yet, economists have argued that human population dynamics can also be influenced by intraspecific cooperation. Despite awareness of the role of interspecific cooperation (mutualism) in influencing resource availability and animal population dynamics, the role of intraspecific cooperation (sociality) under different environmental conditions has rarely been considered. Here we examine the role of what we call "lateral forces" that act within populations and interact with external top-down and bottom-up forces in influencing population dynamics using an individual-based model linking environmental quality, intraspecific cooperation, and population size. We find that the proportion of cooperators is higher when the environment is poor and population sizes are greatest under intermediate resources levels due to the contrasting effects of resource availability on behavior and population size. We also show that social populations are more resilient to environmental change than non-social ones because the benefits of intraspecific cooperation can outweigh the effects of constrained resource availability. Our study elucidates the complex relationship between environmental harshness, cooperation, and population dynamics, which is important for understanding the ecological consequences of cooperation.

Adaptive metabolic responses in a thermostabilized environment: Transgenerational trade-off implications from tropical tilapia

Relatively warm environments caused by global warming enhance the productivity of aquaculture activities in tropical/subtropical regions; however, the intermittent cold stress (ICS) caused by negative Arctic Oscillation can still result in major economic losses. In contrast to endotherms, ectothermic fishes experience ambient temperature as an abiotic factor that is central to performance and survival. Therefore, the occurrence of extreme temperatures caused by climate change has ignited a surge of scientific interest from ecologists, economists and physiologists. In this study, we test the transgenerational effects of rearing cold-experienced (CE) and cold-naïve (CN) strains of tropical tilapia. Our results show that compared to CN tilapia, the CE strain preferentially converts carbohydrates into lipids in liver at a regular temperature of 27 °C. Besides, at a low temperature of 22 °C, the CE strain exhibits a broader aerobic scope than CN fish, and their metabolite profile suggests a metabolic shift towards the utilization of glutamate derivatives. Therefore, in response to thermal perturbations, this transgenerational metabolic adjustment provides evidence into the adaptive trade-off mechanisms in tropical fish. Nevertheless, global warming may result in less thermal variation each year, and the stabilized ambient temperature may cause tropical tilapia to gradually exhibit lower energy deposits in liver. In addition to those habitants in cold and temperate regions, a lack of cold exposure to multiple generations of fish may decrease the native cold-tolerance traits of subtropical/tropical organisms; this notion has not been previously explored in terms of the biological effects under anthropogenic climate change.

A Comparative Analysis of the Hydraulic Strategies of Non-Native and Native Perennial Forbs in Arid and Semiarid Areas of China

(1) Background: Water transport systems play an important role in maintaining plant growth and development. The plasticity responses of the xylem anatomical traits of different species to the environment are different. Studies have shown that there are annual growth rings in the secondary root xylem of perennial herbaceous species. Studies on xylem anatomical traits, however, have mainly focused on woody species, with little attention given to herbaceous species. (2) Methods: We set 14 sampling sites along a rainfall gradient in arid and semiarid regions, and collected the main roots of native (Potentilla) and non-native (Medicago) perennial forbs. The xylem anatomical traits of the plant roots were obtained by paraffin section, and the relationships between the xylem traits of forbs were analyzed by a Pearson correlation. (3) Results: In the fixed measurement area (850 μm × 850 μm), the vessel number (NV) of Potentilla species was higher than that of Medicago species, while the hydraulic diameter (Dh) and mean vessel area (MVA) of Potentilla species were lower than those of Medicago species. With the increase in precipitation along the rainfall gradient, the Dh (R2 = 0.403, p = 0.03) and MVA (R2 = 0.489, p = 0.01) of Medicago species increased significantly, and NV (R2 = 0.252, p = 0.09) decreased, while the hydraulic traits of Potentilla species showed no significant trend with regard to the rainfall gradient. (4) Conclusions: The hydraulic efficiency of non-native Medicago forbs was higher than that of native Potentilla forbs, and the hydraulic safety of native Potentilla forbs was higher than that of non-native Medicago forbs. With the decrease in precipitation, the hydraulic strategies of non-native Medicago forbs changed from efficiency to safety, while native Potentilla forbs were not sensitive to variations in precipitation.

Physiological and Shoot Growth Responses of Abies holophylla and Abies koreana Seedlings to Open-Field Experimental Warming and Increased Precipitation

Projected changes in temperature and precipitation in mid-latitude wet regions are expected to significantly affect forest ecosystems. We studied the physiological and shoot growth responses of Abies holophylla and Abies koreana seedlings to warming (3 °C above ambient temperature) and increased precipitation (irrigation with 40% of rainfall) treatments under open-field conditions. The physiological parameters, quantified by the net photosynthetic rate, transpiration rate, stomatal conductance, and total chlorophyll content, were monitored from July to October 2018. Shoot growth (i.e., root collar diameter and height) was assessed in August and December 2018. Irrespective of the treatments, the physiological parameters of both species decreased from July to August under warming treatment due to heat stress before recovering in September and October. Warming alone (W) and warming along with increased precipitation (W*P) decreased the physiological activities of both species in July, August, and September, with more pronounced effects on A. koreana compared with A. holophylla. Increased precipitation resulted in the increased chlorophyll content of both species in October. Shoot growth was not generally affected by the treatments, except for a subtle reduction in height under W*P for A. koreana. A. holophylla had consistently higher values for the physiological parameters and shoot growth than A. koreana. Our results indicate that the physiological activities of the Abies species could be seriously reduced under climate change, with a more severe impact on A. koreana. Among the two species, A. holophylla appears to be a more robust candidate for future forest planting.

Combining Citizen Science Data and Satellite Descriptors of Ecosystem Functioning to Monitor the Abundance of a Migratory Bird during the Non-Breeding Season

Migratory birds are particularly exposed to habitat changes in their breeding and non-breeding grounds. Remote sensing technologies offer an excellent opportunity to monitor species’ habitats from space at unprecedented spatiotemporal scales. We analyzed if remotely sensed ecosystem functioning attributes (EFAs) adequately predict the spatiotemporal variation of the Woodcock’s (Scolopax rusticola) relative abundance in southwest Europe, during autumn migration and wintering periods. We used data gathered from Woodcock monitoring through citizen science (N = 355,654 hunting trips) between 2009 and 2018. We computed a comprehensive set of EFAs on a weekly basis from three MODIS satellite products: enhanced vegetation index (EVI), tasseled cap transformation (TCT), and land surface temperature (LST). We developed generalized linear mixed models to explore the predictive power of EFAs on Woodcock’s abundance during the non-breeding season. Results showed that Woodcock abundance is correlated with spatiotemporal dynamics in primary productivity (measured through the EVI), water cycle dynamics (wetness component of TCT), and surface energy balance (LST) in both periods. Our findings underline the potential of combining citizen science and remote sensing data to monitor migratory birds throughout their life cycles—an issue of critical importance to ensure adequate habitat management in the non-breeding areas.

Nature versus nurture in heat stress induced learning between inbred and outbred populations of Lymnaea stagnalis

Changing environmental conditions often lead to microevolution of traits that are adaptive under the current selection pressure. Currently, one of the major selection pressures is the rise in temperatures globally that has a severe impact on the behavioral ecology of animals. However, the role of thermal stress on neuronal plasticity and memory formation is not well understood. Thermal tolerance and sensitivity to heat stress show variation across populations of the same species experiencing different thermal regimes. We used two populations of the pond snail Lymnaea stagnalis: one lab-bred W-snails and the other wild Delta snails to test heat shock induced learning and memory formation for the Garcia effect learning paradigm. In Garcia effect, a single pairing of a heat stressor (30 °C for 1h) with a novel taste results in a taste-specific negative hedonic shift lasting 24h as long-term memory (LTM) in lab bred W-snails. In this study we used a repeated heat stress procedure to test for increased or decreased sensitivity to the heat before testing for the Garcia effect. We found that lab-bred W-snails show increased sensitivity to heat stress after repeated heat exposure for 7days, leading to enhanced LTM for Garcia effect with only 15min of heat exposure instead of standard 1h. Surprisingly, the freshly collected wild snails do not show Garcia effect. Additionally, F1 generation of wild snails raised and maintained under laboratory conditions still retain their heat stress tolerance similar to their parents and do not show a Garcia effect under standard learning paradigm or even after repeated heat stressor. Thus, we found a differential effect of heat stress on memory formation in wild and lab bred snails. Most interestingly we also show that local environmental (temperature) conditions for one generation is not enough to alter thermal sensitivity in a wild population of L. stagnalis.

Negative effects of fluctuating temperatures around the optimal temperature on reproduction and survival of the red flour beetle

Whereas the vast majority of animals in nature experience daily or seasonal thermal fluctuations, most laboratory experiments use constant temperatures. We examined the effect of fluctuating temperatures on reproduction and survival under starvation, two important components of fitness. We used the red flour beetle as a model organism, which is a significant pest in grain mills around the world. Fluctuations around the optimal temperature were always negative for the adult survival under starvation. The effect of thermal fluctuations on the number of offspring reaching adulthood was negative as well but increased with the extent of exposure. It was the strongest when the adult parents were kept and the offspring were raised under fluctuating temperatures. However, the later the offspring were exposed to fluctuations during their development, the weaker the effect of fluctuating temperatures was. Moreover, raising the parents under fluctuating temperatures but keeping them after pupation at constant temperatures fully alleviated the negative effects of fluctuations on the offspring. Finally, we demonstrate that keeping the parents a few days under fluctuating temperatures is required to induce negative effects on the number of offspring reaching adulthood. Our study disentangles between the effects of thermal fluctuations experienced during the parental and offspring stage thus contributing to the ongoing research of insects under fluctuating temperatures.

Effects of freshwater release on oyster reef density, reproduction, and disease in a highly modified estuary

Few estuaries remain unaffected by water management and altered freshwater deliveries. The Caloosahatchee River Estuary is a perfect case study for assessing the impact of altered hydrology on natural oyster reef (Crassostrea virginica) populations. The watershed has been highly modified and greatly enlarged by an artificial connection to Lake Okeechobee. Accordingly, to generate data to support water management recommendations, this study monitored various oyster biometrics over 15 years along the primary salinity gradient. Oyster reef densities were significantly affected by both prolonged high volume freshwater releases creating hyposaline conditions at upstream sites and by a lack of freshwater input creating hypersaline conditions at downstream sites. Low freshwater input led to an increase in disease caused by Perkinsus marinus and predation. Moderate (< 2000 cfs) and properly timed (winter/spring) freshets benefited oysters with increased gametogenesis, good larval mixing, and a reprieve from disease. If high volume freshets occurred in the late summer, extensive mortality occurred at the upstream site due to low salinity. These findings suggest freshwater releases in the late summer, when reproductive stress is at its peak and pelagic larvae are most vulnerable, should be limited to < 2000 cfs, but that longer freshets (1-3 weeks) in the winter and early spring (e.g., December-April) benefit oysters by reducing salinity and lessening disease intensity. Similar strategies can be employed in other managed systems, and patterns regarding the timing of high volume flows are applicable to all estuaries where the management of healthy oyster reefs is a priority.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.

Interannual temperature variability is a principal driver of low-frequency fluctuations in marine fish populations

Marine fish populations commonly exhibit low-frequency fluctuations in biomass that can cause catch volatility and thus endanger the food and economic security of dependent coastal societies. Such variability has been linked to fishing intensity, demographic processes and environmental variability, but our understanding of the underlying drivers remains poor for most fish stocks. Our study departs from previous findings showing that sea surface temperature (SST) is a significant driver of fish somatic growth variability and that life-history characteristics mediate population-level responses to environmental variability. We use autoregressive models to simulate how fish populations integrate SST variability over multiple years depending on fish life span and trophic position. We find that simulated SST-driven population dynamics can explain a significant portion of observed low-frequency variability in independent observations of fisheries landings around the globe. Predictive skill, however, decreases with increasing fishing pressure, likely due to demographic truncation. Using our modelling approach, we also show that increases in the mean and variance of SST could amplify biomass volatility and lessen its predictability in the future. Overall, biological integration of high-frequency SST variability represents a null hypothesis with which to explore the drivers of low-frequency population change across upper-trophic marine species.

van der Sleen et al. introduce the use of an autoregressive null model to explain low-frequency variability in populations of marine fishes. Using time series of fisheries landings from a global database, their model shows that interannual sea surface temperature variation is integrated through each trophic level of the food web and can underlie observed low-frequency population dynamics.

Divergent Abiotic Stressors Drive Grassland Community Assembly of Tibet and Mongolia Plateau

Multiple ecological processes simultaneously govern community assembly, but it remains unclear how abiotic stressors regulate the relative importance of these processes among different biogeographic regions. Therefore, we conducted a comprehensive study on the responses of community assembly to varying environmental gradients, using the mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis of plant height (height), specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf dry matter content (LDMC) distributions on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Mongolian Plateau (MP). Our results showed that the prevalence of trait convergence across all grasslands in both TP and MP seem to be the result of abiotic filtering or weaker competitive exclusion etc. These trait-convergence assembly processes decrease the functional dispersion but increase the evenness of the trait frequency distribution. The mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis responses of grassland communities to abiotic stress varied between the TP and MP. On average, plant trait distribution was mainly driven by temperature on the TP, and low-temperature stress altered the community assembly rules. In contrast, water availability shaped plant trait frequency distributions on the MP, and drought stress mediated the balance between different assembly processes. Our results provide empirical evidence that divergent abiotic stressors regulate the grassland community assembly on the TP and MP. Together, our study speculates that different aspects of future climate change, such as climate warming and changing precipitation patterns, on community assembly are dependent on regional climatic regimes.

Inland heat waves (IHWs) and associated impacts on hydro-biology of aquatic ecosystems in lower Ganga basin, India

The present study assessed the occurrence and impact of heat waves on the ecology of two ecosystems namely Bhomra wetland and Ganga River stretch, India. The water samples collected from these ecosystems were analyzed for estimating the hydrological and biological variables during heat wave. The inland heat index (IHI) was derived from the climatic variables, relative humidity and temperature. The study indicated the predominant and periodic occurrence of inland heat waves (IHW) with indices ranging from 34.8 to 42.8 °C and 35.9 to 43.5 °C at the Bhomra and Ganga River stretch respectively during the summer months (March-June). The first two components of the principal component analysis of physico-chemical parameters and heat index explained 45.6% and 59% of the variation in the Bhomra and Ganga River stretch respectively. PCA showed a similar pattern in variation of IHWs and dissolved oxygen, nutrients, hardness and alkalinity, but a distinct pattern with conductivity and TDS in the wetland. IHW exhibited a similar pattern of variation with TDS, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, pH and hardness and distinct pattern with alkalinity, phosphate and nitrate in the river stretch. The first two components of PCA of IHI and plankton abundance explained 89% of the variation and IHI had a similar pattern of variation with the abundance of diatoms and a diverse pattern of variation with blue-green and green algae in the studied ecosystems which might affect the food availability of the associated fishes. The study suggests that IHW influences the water quality and primary producers and also summarizes the impact of IHW on ecosystem services and necessitates mitigation measures.

Biodiversity influences the effects of oil disturbance on coastal ecosystems

Biodiversity can enhance the response of ecosystems to disturbance. However, whether diversity can reduce the ecological effect of human-induced novel and extreme disturbances is unclear. In April 2010, the Deepwater Horizon (DwH) platform exploded, allowing an uncontrolled release of crude oil into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Initial surveys following the spill found that ecological impacts on coastal ecosystems varied greatly across habitat-type and trophic group; however, to date, few studies have tested the influence of local biodiversity on these responses. We used a meta-analytic approach to synthesize the results of 5 mesocosm studies that included 10 independent oil experiments and 5 independent oil + dispersant experiments. We tested whether biodiversity increased the resistance and/or resilience of coastal ecosystems to oil disturbance and whether a biodiversity effect depended on the type of diversity present (taxonomic or genetic) and/or the response type measured (population, community, or ecosystem level). We found that diversity can influence the effects of oiling, but the direction and magnitude of this diversity effect varied. Diversity reduced the negative impact of oiling for within-trophic-level responses and tended to be stronger for taxonomic than genetic diversity. Further, diversity effects were largely driven by the presence of highly resistant or quick to recover taxa and genotypes, consistent with the insurance hypothesis. However, we found no effect of diversity on the response to the combination of oil and dispersant exposure. We conclude that areas of low biodiversity may be particularly vulnerable to future oil disturbances and provide insight into the benefit of incorporating multiple measures of diversity in restoration projects and management decisions.

Climate change: a friend or foe to food security in Africa?

Extreme climate change is posing an increasing threat to human welfare across countries. Specifically, the devastating floods coupled with the looming spectre of drought are argued to explain cross-country differences in food security. While the debate continues and uncertainties about the precise influence of climate change on food security linger, the question of whether climate change plays a pivotal role in increased hunger and food insecurity across countries remains unanswered. This study presented new evidence of the role of climate change in Africa's food security. We utilised the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator to analyse climate change trends. We also employed the pooled mean group technique and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test to investigate the effect of climate change on food security in 15 African countries between 1970 and 2016. Our empirical findings revealed three things. First, rainfall plays a decisive role in Africa's food security when examined broadly. However, the significance of the effect of rainfall varied substantially across the 15 countries. Second, we find no robust impact of temperature on food security in the long run. However, the short-run results showed that extreme temperatures impede food security, with varying magnitudes across countries. Third, except for rainfall, a bidirectional causality exists between food security and temperature in Africa. Given the risks associated with rain-fed agriculture, we argue that African countries need to limit their dependence on rain-fed agriculture to boost food production.

Predators mitigate the destabilising effects of heatwaves on multitrophic stream communities

Amidst the global extinction crisis, climate change will expose ecosystems to more frequent and intense extreme climatic events, such as heatwaves. Yet, whether predator species loss-a prevailing characteristic of the extinction crisis-will exacerbate the ecological consequences of extreme climatic events remains largely unknown. Here, we show that the loss of predator species can interact with heatwaves to moderate the compositional stability of ecosystems. We exposed multitrophic stream communities, with and without a dominant predator species, to realistic current and future heatwaves and found that heatwaves destabilised algal communities by homogenising them in space. However, this happened only when the predator was absent. Additional heatwave impacts on multiple aspects of stream communities, including changes to the structure of algal and macroinvertebrate communities, as well as total algal biomass and its temporal variability, were not apparent during heatwaves and emerged only after the heatwaves had passed. Taken together, our results suggest that the ecological consequences of heatwaves can amplify over time as their impacts propagate through biological interaction networks, but the presence of predators can help to buffer such impacts. These findings underscore the importance of conserving trophic structure, and highlight the potential for species extinctions to amplify the effects of climate change and extreme events.

Estimating Heat-Related Exposures and Urban Heat Island Impacts: A Case Study for the 2012 Chicago Heatwave

Accelerated urbanization increases both the frequency and intensity of heatwaves (HW) and urban heat islands (UHIs). An extreme HW event occurred in 2012 summer that caused temperatures of more than 40°C in Chicago, Illinois, USA, which is a highly urbanized city impacted by UHIs. In this study, multiple numerical models, including the High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, were used to simulate the HW and UHI, and their performance was evaluated. In addition, sensitivity testing of three different WRF configurations was done to determine the impact of increasing model complexity in simulating urban meteorology. Model performances were evaluated based on the statistical performance metrics, the application of a multi-layer urban canopy model (MLUCM) helps WRF to provide the best performance in this study. HW caused rural temperatures to increase by ∼4°C, whereas urban Chicago had lower magnitude increases from the HW (∼2-3°C increases). Nighttime UHI intensity (UHII) ranged from 1.44 to 2.83°C during the study period. Spatiotemporal temperature fields were used to estimate the potential heat-related exposure and to quantify the Excessive Heat Factor (EHF). The EHF during the HW episode provides a risk map indicating that while urban Chicago had higher heat-related stress during this event, the rural area also had high risk, especially during nighttime in central Illinois. This study provides a reliable method to estimate spatiotemporal exposures for future studies of heat-related health impacts.

Divergent responses of CO2 and CH4 fluxes to changes in the precipitation regime on the Tibetan Plateau: Evidence from soil enzyme activities and microbial communities

Carbon fluxes (CO₂ and CH₄) are important indicators of the response of alpine meadow ecosystems to global climate change. Alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are sensitive to climate change. Although the temporal allocation of precipitation can vary, its intensity is expected to increase, and its frequency is expected to decrease in the future. In this study, a manipulative field experiment was conducted to investigate how carbon fluxes are altered in response to moderate and severe changes in the precipitation regime. Fluctuations in CH₄ flux were large under a severely altered precipitation regime (range of -0.048-0.038 mg m^-2 h^-1). Severe changes in the precipitation regime significantly reduced soil CH₄ uptake by approximately 54.3%. This was probably affected by the decrease in the dissolved organic carbon concentration and changes in the microbial community (mainly Gammaproteobacteria), which were induced by variation in soil water conditions under various precipitation regimes. Under moderate changes in the precipitation regime, the average value of CO₂ fluxes (ecosystem respiration) was 698.21 ± 35.19 mg m^-2 h^-1, which was significantly decreased by 20.7% compared with the control. This likely stems from the suppression of enzyme activity (particularly α-1,4-glucosidase and β-1,4-glucosidase) and the alteration of microbial community structure in this treatment, which led to a decrease in organic matter breakdown and a reduction in the release of CO₂ to the atmosphere. However, CO₂ fluxes were slightly (i.e., not significantly) decreased under the severely altered precipitation regime. Such different responses of CO₂ flux are probably driven by differences in microbial strategies. This study not only increases our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the adaptation of alpine meadow ecosystems to global climate change but also provides new insight into the carbon source/sink functions of alpine meadows.