Assessment of the Feasibility and Cost of Hepatitis C Elimination in Pakistan

Hepatitis C Elimination in Rwanda: Progress, Feasibility, and Economic Evaluation

OBJECTIVES

In 2018, Rwanda launched a national program to eliminate the hepatitis C virus (HCV). We aim to assess the impact of the program to date and identify strategies to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination goals by 2030.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model to simulate Rwanda's HCV epidemic from 2015 through 2050 and evaluated temporal trends in HCV infection, prevalence, mortality, and the total cost of care for scenarios that could achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

RESULTS

Between 2018 and 2022, over 7 million people were screened for HCV, and 60 000 were treated. The study projected that Rwanda could achieve HCV elimination as early as 2027. A feasible strategy of an annual screening rate of 15% and a treatment rate of 100% would achieve all World Health Organization elimination goals by 2028, requiring screening an additional 4 million people and treating 23 900 patients by 2030. The elimination strategy costs $25 million for screening and diagnosis and $21 million for treatment from 2015 to 2050. The national program would avert 4900 hepatocellular carcinoma cases and 6700 HCV-related deaths and save the health system $25.33 million from 2015 to 2050.

CONCLUSIONS

Rwanda is poised to become one of the first countries in the world to eliminate HCV. Rwanda's program serves as a blueprint for other countries in the African region. By rapid screening and treatment scale-up (eg, by leveraging HIV platforms) and by drug price negotiations, HCV elimination is not only feasible but can be cost-saving in low-income settings.

Hepatitis C Elimination in Moldova Is Feasible and Cost-Saving: A Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

Moldova, an upper-middle-income country in Eastern Europe, is facing a high burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Our objective was to assist the National Agency of Public Health of Moldova in planning to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination goals by 2030.

METHODS

This study adapted a previously developed microsimulation model to simulate the HCV epidemic in Moldova from 2004 to 2050. Model outcomes included temporal trends in HCV infection, prevalence, mortality, and total cost of care, including screening and treatment. We evaluated scenarios that could eliminate HCV by 2030.

RESULTS

Multiple strategies could lead to HCV elimination in Moldova by 2030. A realistic scenario of a 20% annual screening and 80% treatment rate would require 2.75 million individuals to be screened and 65 000 treated by 2030. Compared to 2015, this program will reduce HCV incidence by 98% and HCV-related deaths by 72% in 2030. Between 2022 and 2030, this strategy would cost $17.5 million for HCV screening and treatment. However, by 2050, the health system would save >$85 million compared to no investment in elimination efforts.

CONCLUSIONS

HCV elimination in Moldova is feasible and can be cost saving, but requires resources to scale HCV screening and treatment.

Barriers and Strategies for Hepatitis B and C Elimination in Pakistan

BACKGROUND

Pakistan has a high hepatitis burden for both hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV). To achieve World Health Organization (WHO) 2030 targets for hepatitis elimination, there is a need to constitute progress in the country, find the barriers and strategies for HCV elimination, and take actions to address the gaps.

METHODS

We collected data from (1) WHO estimates in 2020, (2) midterm review questionnaire of the WHO regional action plan, and (3) WHO estimates on immunization. We analyzed these data to inform (1) the burden defined as prevalence and mortality and (2) response in 3 thematic areas: governance, policy, and finance; strategic information; and service delivery.

RESULTS

The prevalence of hepatitis B in the general population is 1.6% with 12 000 deaths/year. The prevalence of hepatitis C in the general population is 7.5% with 19 000 deaths and 545 000 new cases (incidence)/year. The selected indicators to monitor progress on viral hepatitis in Pakistan were governance and financing, policies and guidelines, and strategic information. The overall governance indicators are good with a focal point, a national hepatitis strategy, an operational plan, strategy for price reduction, and involvement of civil society but the costed action plan and the advocacy strategy are missing. The indicators on policies and guidelines are also adequately addressed. The hepatitis B and C testing and treatment guidelines are available, there is a policy to screen all blood donations, and there is an injection safety policy, but the policy for timely hepatitis B vaccine birth dose and hepatitis B vaccination for the vulnerable is missing. Both indicators regarding strategic information, that is measures of key hepatitis indicators and regular data review, are missing. The status of 5 key interventions in Pakistan show that the hepatitis B vaccination coverage is 74% and only 3% of newborn children are given the hepatitis B vaccine birth dose. Only 22% of HCV cases have been diagnosed and 2% have received treatment. Treatment response is 96%. Same-day testing and treatment of hepatitis C reduced the overall dropout rate and improved the cascade of care. Decentralization and task shifting are important tools to improve service delivery and reach communities. Finances to implement hepatitis elimination is a major barrier.

CONCLUSIONS

Pakistan has the highest hepatitis disease burden. With the current pace, hepatitis elimination appears impossible. Introduction of the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine and improving access and affordability of testing can improve the testing and treatment numbers. Finances need to be mobilized from within the country and outside to support disease elimination.

Hepatitis C virus associated ALT, AST, GGT, Bili T, HB, HBA1C, CREAT, PT, aPPT, AFP, CEA, CA 125, CA 19-9, iPTH biomarkers, computed tomography and HCV burden of disease during pre COVID-19 era (2018-2019) and post COVID-19 era (2020-2022) in Pakistan

The national burden of HCV has significantly mounted over the period of last few decades placing Pakistan at the worst placement of second largest burden of HCV globally. Herein for the first time from Pakistan, we examined clinical correlation of potential biomarkers with HCV. Nation-wide study was conducted on 13,348 suspected HCV patients during 2018-2022. During pre-COVID-19 era of 2018-2019, prevalence of HCV remained 30%. During 2018, among HCV positive patients, 91% of ALT, 63% of AST, 67% of GGT, 28% of Bili T, 62% of HB, 15% of HBA1C, 25% of CREAT, 15% of PT, 15% of aPTT and 64% of AFP were abnormal. During 2019, among HCV infected 74.47% of ALT, 63.54% of AST, 70.24% of GGT, 24.71% of Bili T, 8.77% of HB and 75% of AFP were raised. CT/CAT scan revealed 4.65% liver complications (mild 13.04%, moderate 30.43% and severe 56.52%). During 2020, HCV prevalence remained 25%. 65.17% of ALT, 64.20% of AST, 68.75% of GGT, 31.25% of Bili T, 20.97% of HB, 4.65% of CREAT and 73.68% of AFP levels were raised. CAT analysis revealed liver complications among 4.41% (14.81% mild, 40.74% moderate, and 44.44% sever). 85.71% of participants diabetes was out of control. During 2021, HCV prevalence remained 27.1%. ALT (73.86%), AST (50.6%), GGT (67.95%), Bili T (28.21%), HB (20%), CREAT (5.8%) and AFP (82.14%) levels were abnormal. During 2022, the levels of ALT (56.06%), AST (56.36%), GGT (56.6%), Bili T (19.23%), HB (43.48%), HBA1C (14.81), CREAT (18.92%), AFP (93.75%) were abnormal. CAT analysis revealed 7.46% liver complications (25% mild, 30.36% moderate, and 42.86% sever). During 2021-2022, 83.33% of subject's diabetes was not controlled.

Assessing the potential cost-effectiveness of centralised versus point-of-care testing for hepatitis C virus in Pakistan: a model-based comparison

OBJECTIVES

Pakistan has a hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection prevalence of 6%-9% and aims to achieve World Health Organisation (WHO) targets for elimination of HCV by the year 2030. We aim to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of a reference laboratory-based (centralised laboratory testing; CEN) confirmatory testing approach versus a molecular near-patient point-of-care (POC) confirmatory approach to screen the general population for HCV in Pakistan.

STUDY DESIGN

We used a decision tree-analytic model from a governmental (formal healthcare sector) perspective.

STUDY SETTING

Individuals were assumed to be initially screened with an anti-HCV test at home, followed by POC nucleic acid test (NAT) at nearby district hospitals or followed by NAT at centralised laboratories.

PARTICIPANTS

We included the general testing population for chronic HCV in Pakistan.

INTERVENTION

Screening with an anti-HCV antibody test (Anti-HCV) followed by either POC NAT (Anti-HCV-POC), or reference laboratory NAT (Anti-HCV-CEN), was compared, using data from published literature and the Pakistan Ministry of Health.

MEASURES

Outcome measures included: number of HCV infections identified per year, percentage of individuals correctly classified, total costs, average costs per individual tested, and cost-effectiveness (assessed as cost per additional HCV infection identified). Sensitivity analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

At a national level (25 million annual screening tests), the Anti-HCV-CEN strategy would identify 142 406 more HCV infections in 1 year and increase correct classification of individuals by 0.57% compared with the Anti-HCV-POC strategy. The total annual cost of HCV testing was reduced using the Anti-HCV-CEN strategy by US$7.68 million (US$0.31/person). Thus, incrementally, the Anti-HCV-CEN strategy costs less and identifies more HCV infections than Anti-HCV-POC. The incremental difference in HCV infections identified was most sensitive to the probability of loss to follow-up (for POC confirmatory NAT).

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-HCV-CEN would provide the best value for money when scaling up HCV testing in Pakistan.

Hepatitis C prevalence and elimination planning in Pakistan, a bottom-up approach accounting for provincial variation

In Pakistan, substantial changes to hepatitis C virus (HCV) programming and treatment have occurred since the 2008 nationwide serosurvey estimated a 4.8% anti-HCV prevalence. In the absence of an updated national study, this analysis uses provincial data to estimate a national prevalence and the interventions needed to achieve elimination. Using a Delphi process, epidemiologic HCV data for the four provinces of Pakistan (accounting for 97% of the population) were reviewed with 21 subject-matter experts in Pakistan. Province-level estimates were inputted into a mathematical model to estimate the national HCV disease burden in the absence of intervention (Base), and if the World Health Organization (WHO) elimination targets are achieved by 2030 (80% reduction in new infections, 90% diagnosis coverage, 80% treatment coverage, and 65% reduction in mortality: WHO Elimination). An estimated 9,746,000 (7,573,000-10,006,000) Pakistanis were living with viraemic HCV as of January 1, 2021; a viraemic prevalence of 4.3% (3.3-4.4). WHO Elimination would require an annual average of 18.8 million screens, 1.1 million treatments, and 46,700 new infections prevented anually between 2022 and 2030. Elimination would reduce total infections by 7,045,000, save 152,000 lives and prevent 104,000 incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma from 2015 to 2030. Blood surveys, programmatic data, and expert panel input uncovered more HCV infections and lower treatment numbers in the provinces than estimated using national extrapolations, demonstrating the benefits of a bottom-up approach. Screening and treatment must increase 20 times and 5 times, respectively, to curb the HCV epidemic in Pakistan and achieve elimination by 2030.

Optimizing point-of-care testing strategies for diagnosis and treatment of hepatitis C virus infection in Australia: a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Timely diagnosis and treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is critical to achieve elimination goals. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of point-of-care testing strategies for HCV compared to laboratory-based testing in standard-of-care.

Methods

Cost-effectiveness analyses were undertaken from the perspective of Australian Governments as funders by modelling point-of-care testing strategies compared to standard-of-care in needle and syringe programs, drug treatment clinics, and prisons. Point-of-care testing strategies included immediate point-of-care HCV RNA testing and combined point-of-care HCV antibody and reflex RNA testing for HCV antibody positive people (with and without consideration of previous treatment). Sensitivity analyses were performed to investigate the cost per treatment initiation with different testing strategies at different HCV antibody prevalence levels.

Findings

The average costs per HCV treatment initiation by point-of-care testing, from A$890 to A$1406, were up to 35% lower compared to standard-of-care ranging from A$1248 to A$1632 depending on settings. The average costs per treatment initiation by point-of-care testing for three settings ranged from A$1080 to A$1406 for RNA, A$960-A$1310 for combined antibody/RNA without treatment history consideration, and A$890-A$1189 for combined antibody/RNA with treatment history consideration. When HCV antibody prevalence was <74%, combined point-of-care HCV antibody and point-of-care RNA testing were the most cost-effective strategies. Modest increases in treatment uptake by 8%-31% were required for immediate point-of-care HCV RNA testing to achieve equivalent cost per treatment initiation compared to standard-of-care.

Interpretation

Point-of-care testing is more cost-effective than standard of care for populations at risk of HCV. Testing strategies combining point-of-care HCV antibody and RNA testing are likely to be cost-effective in most settings.

Funding

National Health and Medical Research Council.

Genomic Relevance of FGFR2 on the Prognosis of HCV-Induced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

The Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptors (FGFRs) are known to regulate cancer metabolism in different tumor types, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Several risk factors are associated with HCC, of which viral infections (Hepatitis B and C) and cirrhosis are prominent. In Pakistan as well as in highly developed countries like the United States, hepatitis C virus HCV infections are most commonly reported in HCC. Here, we aimed to investigate the clinical relevance of FGFR receptors in HCC and their role in HCV-positive HCC cases. 264 HCC samples along with their clinical information and 96 normal liver samples were collected. qPCR was done to estimate the expression of FGFR1, FGFR2, FGFR3 and FGFR4. Three independent HCV-induced HCC cohorts (containing 293 HCC samples) were used for validation. According to in vitro results, FGFR1 was upregulated in HCV+ HCC patients. However, in all three independent cohorts of HCC, significant a down-regulation of FGFR1 was observed. FGFR2 overexpression was observed in the in vitro cohort as well as in three independent HCC cohorts. Interestingly, a strong correlation of FGFR2 expression was observed between cirrhosis and HCV in all four HCC cohorts. Our study suggested that FGFR2 expression can be used to classify HCC patients based on HCV infection. This FGFR2-based classification may lead to new therapeutic strategies against HCV-positive HCC subtypes.

Protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial of secondary distribution of hepatitis C self-testing within the context of a house-to-house hepatitis C micro-elimination programme in Karachi, Pakistan

Background

Globally, just 21% of the estimated 58 million people living with hepatitis C virus (HCV) know their status. Thus, there is considerable need to scale-up HCV testing if the World Health Organization (WHO) 2030 hepatitis elimination goals are to be achieved. HCV self-testing may assist with this; however, there are currently no data on the real-world impact of HCV self-testing.

With an estimated 5% of the general population living with HCV, Pakistan has the second highest HCV burden in the world. This study aims to evaluate the acceptability and impact of home delivery of HCV self-testing for secondary distribution in the context of a house-to-house HCV micro-elimination programme in Pakistan.

Methods

This is a parallel group, non-blinded, cluster randomised trial comparing secondary distribution of HCV self-testing with secondary distribution of information pamphlets encouraging individuals to visit a testing facility for HCV screening. The cluster allocation ratio is 1:1. Clusters will be randomised either to HCV self-testing distributed via study staff or control clusters where information on HCV will be given and the participant will be requested to attend their local hospital for HCV screening. In both clusters, only households with a member who has not yet been screened as part of the larger micro-elimination project will be included. The primary outcome is the number and proportion of participants who report completion of testing. Secondary outcomes include the number and proportion of participants who a) receive a positive result and are made aware of their status, b) are referred to and complete HCV RNA confirmatory testing, and c) start treatment. Acceptability, feasibility, attitudes towards HCV testing, and cost will also be evaluated. The target sample size is 2,000 participants.

Discussion

This study will provide the first ever evidence regarding secondary distribution of HCV self-testing. By comparing HCV self-testing with facility-based testing, we will assess whether HCV self-testing increases the uptake of HCV testing. The findings will inform micro-elimination programmes and determine whether HCV self-testing can enable individuals to be reached who may otherwise be missed.

Trial Registration

This study and was registered on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04971538) 21 July 2021.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13125-9.

Hepatitis C virus: A critical approach to who really needs treatment

Introduction of effective drugs in the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has prompted the World Health Organization to declare a global eradication target by 2030. Propositions have been made to screen the general population and treat all HCV carriers irrespective of the disease status. A year ago the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus appeared causing a worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 disease. Huge financial resources were redirected, and the pandemic became the first priority in every country. In this review, we examined the feasibility of the World Health Organization elimination program and the actual natural course of HCV infection. We also identified and analyzed certain comorbidity factors that may aggravate the progress of HCV and some marginalized subpopulations with characteristics favoring HCV dissemination. Alcohol consumption, HIV coinfection and the presence of components of metabolic syndrome including obesity, hyperuricemia and overt diabetes were comorbidities mostly responsible for increased liver-related morbidity and mortality of HCV. We also examined the significance of special subpopulations like people who inject drugs and males having sex with males. Finally, we proposed a different micro-elimination screening and treatment program that can be implemented in all countries irrespective of income. We suggest that screening and treatment of HCV carriers should be limited only in these particular groups.

Hepatitis C virus: Its prevalence, risk factors and genotype distribution in Pakistan

Hepatitis C is a dangerous liver disease transmitted by Hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV constitutes an important health issue in Pakistan. In Pakistani setting HCV is found frequently and is recognized as an alarming health problem. In this cross sectional study we reviewed published data regarding the seroprevalence of hepatitis C in general community, blood donors and pregnant females and risk factors linked with its occurrence in Pakistan. Data retrieved from163 studies published from 2001 to 2022 was utilized and weighted mean was calculated. Data of 1,875,232 individuals was collected and arranged into three groups, depending upon the population type such as (1) general population, (2) pregnant women, (3) blood donors. General population (765,426) and blood donors (973,260) formed the most of population. Mean Hepatitis C virus prevalence in general public and blood donors was 16.47% and 8.2% respectively. In pregnant females (136,546) the mean frequency was 9.3%. This study exhibits that the frequency of Hepatitis C in general population, pregnant females and blood donors groups was 11.32%. The data suggested that risks factors for transmitting HCV infection in Pakistan include unsterilized needle use, blood transfusions, shaving by barbers, lack of trained staff, needle stick injuries, injection drug users, household contacts/spousal transmission, unsterilized dental and surgical Instruments, improper disposal of hospital waste, poor infra-structure and others. The frequency of HCV infection is distressing in Pakistan. Health education and awareness programs are needed for decreasing Hepatitis C infection in Pakistan. The data necessitate the implementation of preventive and remedial approaches to decrease the disease load and mortality in Pakistan.

HCV extinction analysis in district Gujrat, Pakistan by using SARIMA and linear regression models

BACKGROUND

To investigate the track of Gujrat, a District of Pakistan is very essential, either it follow-up World Health Organization (WHO) Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination plan or not. This study aimed to find out HCV extinction analysis by time series forecast from District Gujrat, Pakistan.

METHODS

From January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2020 total n-5,111 numbers of HCV real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests were performed in Gujrat. For extinction analysis we used 2 different models, the first model was seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and the second linear regression (LR) model. First, we fitted both models then these fitted and valid models were used to predict future HCV percentage in District Gujrat.

RESULTS

In District Gujrat, the men HCV infected ratio is high with a higher viral load as compared with women, from year 2016 to 2020 male to female ratio was (53.75:53.19), (45.67:43.84), (39.67:39.36), (41.94:35.88), (37.70:31.38) respectively. HCV percentage is decreasing from 2016 to 2020 with an average of 4.98%. Our both fitted models SARIMAX (0,1,1)(0,1,1,6) at 95% confidence intervals and LR model Y = -0.379 X + 53.378 at 99% confidence intervals (P-value = .00) revealed that in June 2029 and in August 2027 respectively HCV percentage will be 0 from district Gujrat, Pakistan.

CONCLUSIONS

This study concluded that both SARIMA and LR models showed an effective modeling process for forecasting yearly HCV incidence. District Gujrat, Punjab, Pakistan is on track to achieve the WHO HCV elimination plan, before 2030 HCV will be extinct from this region.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C testing pathways in Georgia using the Hep C Testing Calculator

The cost of testing can be a substantial contributor to hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination program costs in many low- and middle-income countries such as Georgia, resulting in the need for innovative and cost-effective strategies for testing. Our objective was to investigate the most cost-effective testing pathways for scaling-up HCV testing in Georgia. We developed a Markov-based model with a lifetime horizon that simulates the natural history of HCV, and the cost of detection and treatment of HCV. We then created an interactive online tool that uses results from the Markov-based model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different HCV testing pathways. We compared the current standard-of-care (SoC) testing pathway and four innovative testing pathways for Georgia. The SoC testing was cost-saving compared to no testing, but all four new HCV testing pathways further increased QALYs and decreased costs. The pathway with the highest patient follow-up, due to on-site testing, resulted in the highest discounted QALYs (124 QALY more than the SoC) and lowest costs ($127,052 less than the SoC) per 10,000 persons screened. The current testing algorithm in Georgia can be replaced with a new pathway that is more effective while being cost-saving.

Hepatitis C and hepatitis C-related advanced liver disease hospitalisation trends before and after the Strategic Plan for Tackling Hepatitis C in the National Health System

INTRODUCTION

This work evaluates the burden and trends of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated hospitalisations in Spain before and after the implementation of the Strategic Plan for Tackling Hepatitis C in the National Health System in 2015.

METHODS

HCV-related hospitalisation discharges from 2005 to 2017 were obtained from the National Registry of Hospitalisations. A descriptive analysis of the hospitalisations was performed.

RESULTS

From 2005 to 2017, there were 674 067 HCV-related hospitalisations: 1.2%, 29.9%, 63.9% and 5% of them due to acute, carriers, chronic and unspecified hepatitis C. Average age of the patients was 57.7 years (SD: 16.4), average hospital stay was 9.1 days (SD: 12.2) and intra-hospital case-fatality rate was 6.5%. Hospitalisation rates decreased notably (P < 0.05) in 2016-2017 compared to 2005-2015 for all [hospitalisation rate ratio (HRR): 0.77], males (HRR: 0.80), females (HRR: 0.74), chronic hepatitis C (HRR: 0.84), non-advanced liver disease (N-AdLD) (HRR: 0.80) and AdLD (HRR: 0.73). Acute HCV (HRR: 0.54) and carriers (HRR: 0.49) show decreases in 2016-2017 vs. 2005-2015, although their rates started to decrease in 2008/2009. Unspecified HCV hospitalisation rates increased (P < 0.05) in 2016-2017 (HRR: 2.02) vs. 2005-2015. From 2015 to 2017, cost per patient increased from 5981 euros to 6349 euros, but overall cost decreased, as hospitalisations rates decreased from 302 to 264 million euros.

DISCUSSION

HCV-related hospitalisation rates decreased notably in 2016 and 2017 after the strategic plan for tackling hepatitis C was launched. Although cost per AdLD patient increased in 2016 and 2017, globally costs were reduced around 35 million euros per year.

Health and economic benefits of achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Pakistan: A modelling study and economic analysis

BACKGROUND

Modelling suggests that achieving the WHO incidence target for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan could cost US$3.87 billion over 2018 to 2030. However, the economic benefits from integrating services or improving productivity were not included.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We adapt a HCV transmission model for Pakistan to estimate the impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of achieving HCV elimination (reducing annual HCV incidence by 80% by 2030) with stand-alone service delivery, or partially integrating one-third of initial HCV testing into existing healthcare services. We estimate the net economic benefits by comparing the required investment in screening, treatment, and healthcare management to the economic productivity gains from reduced HCV-attributable absenteeism, presenteeism, and premature deaths. We also calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for HCV elimination versus maintaining current levels of HCV treatment. This is compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Pakistan (US$148 to US$198/DALY). Compared to existing levels of treatment, scaling up screening and treatment to achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan averts 5.57 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.80 to 8.22) million DALYs and 333,000 (219,000 to 509,000) HCV-related deaths over 2018 to 2030. If HCV testing is partially integrated, this scale-up requires an investment of US$1.45 (1.32 to 1.60) billion but will result in US$1.30 (0.94 to 1.72) billion in improved economic productivity over 2018 to 2030. This elimination strategy is highly cost-effective (ICER = US$29 per DALY averted) by 2030, with it becoming cost-saving by 2031 and having a net economic benefit of US$9.10 (95% UI 6.54 to 11.99) billion by 2050. Limitations include uncertainty around what level of integration is possible within existing primary healthcare services as well as a lack of Pakistan-specific data on disease-related healthcare management costs or productivity losses due to HCV.

CONCLUSIONS

Investment in HCV elimination can bring about substantial societal health and economic benefits for Pakistan.

Next-generation sequencing studies on the E1-HVR1 region of hepatitis C virus (HCV) from non-high-risk HCV patients living in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

The incidence rate of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Pakistan is very high. In this study, we evaluated the genetic heterogeneity of HCV hypervariable region 1 (HVR1) from the HCV-infected Pakistani population and compare the isolated genotypes with representative sequences from internationally diverse geographic regions. We also investigated potential transmission events in non-high-risk HCV patients. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) data from the E1-HVR1 region from 30 HCV patients were used for phylogenetic analysis. Reference sequences were retrieved from the Los Alamos HCV and GenBank databases. NGS data were analyzed to examine HCV HVR1 sequence diversity and identify transmission links among HCV-infected individuals using Global Hepatitis Outbreak and Surveillance Technology (GHOST). Phylogenetic analysis showed the predominance of HCV genotype 3a (86.6%), followed by 1a (6.6%), 1b (3.3%), and 3b (3.3%). NGS of HVR1 displayed significant genetic heterogeneity of HCV populations within each patient. The average nucleotide sequence diversity for HVR1 was 0.055. JR781281 was found to be the most diverse (0.14) of the specimens. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that all HCV specimens sequenced in this study were more similar to each other and showed variations from the representative sequences. The GHOST results suggested genetic relatedness between two (6.6%) HCV cases, possibly defining an incipient outbreak in a non-high-risk population. We urge rigorous countrywide investigation of outbreaks to identify transmission clusters and their sources to incorporate preventive measures for disease control.

Use of Project ECHO Telementoring Model in Continuing Medical Education for Pediatricians in Vietnam: Preliminary Results

The ECHO (Extension for Community Health Outcomes) model has been introduced and implemented in several hospitals and health programs in Vietnam since 2015. In 2018, Vietnam National Children’s Hospital (VNCH) officially implemented the ECHO model to provide continuing medical education (CME) credits on pediatrics topics for medical staff in its satellite hospitals and health centers in the Northern region of Vietnam. This paper presents preliminary results of the ECHO program at VNCH. Methods included pre- and post-program assessments of pediatricians’ clinical knowledge, self-efficacy, and professional satisfaction. The analysis compared the differences between pre/post scores descriptively. Knowledge of participants increased by 22.5% points on average. More than 90% of Project ECHO-Pediatrics participants experienced increased confidence. Overall, there was an improvement in participants’ self-efficacy in the post-training compared to the pre-training (range 14.7%-22.6% difference from pre-training). All participants improved on their results in the clinical test immediately after the training and maintained it after 3 months. The study demonstrated the ability Project ECHO to improve healthcare worker knowledge and satisfaction.

Reduction in hepatitis C-related hospitalizations after the implementation of the Strategic Plan for Tackling Hepatitis C in the Spanish National Health System: regional level differences

This work evaluates the potential impact at territorial level of the Strategic Plan for Tackling Hepatitis C in the Spanish National Health System on hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated hospitalizations. Chronic HCV-related hospitalization discharges from 2014 to 2018 were obtained from the National Registry of Hospitalisations. A descriptive analysis of the hospitalizations was performed for all chronic, advanced liver disease and non-advanced liver disease. Hospitalization rates were calculated at national and regional level. Year 2015 and period 2016-2018 hospitalization rates were compared to 2014 hospitalization rates using a Poisson model. Municipal standardized hospitalization rates ratios adjusted by age-group were calculated for 2016-2018 period (2014 hospitalization rates as reference). From 2014 to 2018, there were 22,352 chronic HCV-related hospitalizations. In-hospital fatality rate was 4.3% for non-advanced liver disease and 11.7% for advanced liver disease patients. National hospitalization rate decreased 22% (95% CI: 21%-22%), 16% (95% CI: 15%-17%) and 34% (95% CI: 33%-35%) in 2016-2018 compared to 2014 for all chronic, non-advanced and advanced liver disease, respectively. During 2016-2018 period, 11/19 Spanish regions achieved >20% decrease in the hospitalization rates (p < .001) for non-advanced liver disease and 19/19 (except Melilla, the rest with p < .001) for advanced liver disease. At municipal level, 84.8% and 90.2% municipalities had <20% of chronic HCV-related hospitalization need compared to 2014 adjusted by age-group. Based on the data analysed, a high impact on reducing chronic HCV-associated hospitalizations have been achieved after the implementation of the Strategic Plan for Tackling Hepatitis C in the Spanish National Health System. However, small differences between regions and rural/urban areas were noticed.

Improving Linkage to Care of Hepatitis C: Clinical Validation of GeneXpert® HCV Viral Load Point-of-Care Assay in Indonesia

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection large-scale diagnosis and treatment are hampered by lack of a simple, rapid, and reliable point-of-care (POC) test, which poses a challenge for the elimination of hepatitis C as a public health problem. This study aimed to evaluate Cepheid Xpert^® HCV Viral Load performance in comparison with the Roche Cobas^® TaqMan^® HCV Test using serum samples of HCV-infected patients in Indonesia. Viral load quantification was performed on 243 anti-HCV positive patients’ samples using both Xpert HCV VL and Roche HCV tests, followed by HCV genotyping by reverse hybridization. Strength of the relationship between the assays was measured by Pearson correlation coefficient, while level of agreement was analyzed by Deming regression and Bland–Altman plot analysis using log₁₀-transformed viral load values. Quantifiable viral load was detected in 180/243 (74.1%), with Xpert HCV VL sensitivity of 100% (95% CI 0.98, 1.00) and specificity of 98.4% (95% CI 0.91, 0.99) based on the Roche HCV test, while HCV genotypes were determined in 172/180 (95.6%) samples. There was a good correlation between both assays (r = 0.97, P < 0.001), overall and per genotype, with good concordance by Deming regression and a mean difference of −0.25 log₁₀ IU/mL (95% CI −0.33, −0.18) by Bland–Altman plot analysis. Xpert HCV VL test was demonstrated as a POC platform with good performance for HCV diagnosis and treatment decision that would be beneficial for decentralized services in resource-limited areas. HCV testing sites, alongside additional GeneXpert modular systems distributed toward the fight against COVID-19, could ensure some continuity, once this pandemic is controlled.

The Impact of Interferon-γ (IFN-γ) and IFN-γ-Inducible Protein 10 (IP-10) Genes' Polymorphism on Risk of Hepatitis C Virus-Related Liver Cirrhosis

Background: Today there is increasing evidence concerning the association between individual genetic polymorphisms within proinflammatory cytokines and chronic hepatitis C (CHC) severity. It has been demonstrated that polymorphisms in some genes may significantly predict HCV infected patients' susceptibility to developing liver cirrhosis or their responsiveness to the treatment.Aim: We investigated the influence of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in Interferon (IFN-γ) and Interferon Gamma-Inducible Protein 10 (IP-10) genes on cirrhosis risk in HCV-infected patients and their association with response to various direct-acting antiviral drugs (DAAs).Methods: IFN-γ (+874T/A, +2109A/G) and IP-10 (-135G/A, -1447A/G) genotypes were determined in 175 CHC Egyptian HCV patients (69 liver cirrhotic and 106 non-cirrhotic patients) using either single-stranded polymorphism polymerase chain reaction (SSP-PCR) or Restriction fragment length-PCR (RFLP-PCR) methods.Results: IFN-γ + 874 TA, IP-10 - 135AA, and IP-10 - 1447AA and IP-10 - 1447GG genotypes are increased in patients developing liver cirrhosis compared to non-cirrhotic ones. Although, no statistical significance in their distribution was demonstrated, indicating the lack of association between these SNPs and liver cirrhosis susceptibility in HCV-infected patients. Haplotypes analysis between different loci on all selected genes showed a significant increase in AGGA and TAGA and a significant decrease in TGGA haplotypes in cirrhotic patients. Genotype frequencies at loci -135 and -1447 of IP-10 appeared to be in complete Linkage disequilibrium (LD) (D' = 0.999, r² = 0.689).Conclusion: Our data support the concept that IFN-γ and IP-10 gene polymorphisms are not predictors of disease progression among Egyptian patients with HCV infection.

Cost-Effectiveness of Testing and Treatment for Hepatitis B Virus and Hepatitis C Virus Infections: An Analysis by Scenarios, Regions, and Income

OBJECTIVES

Testing and treatment for hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are highly effective, high-impact interventions. This article aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of scaling up these interventions by scenarios, regions, and income groups.

METHODS

We modeled costs and impacts of hepatitis elimination in 67 low- and middle-income countries from 2016 to 2030. Costs included testing and treatment commodities, healthcare consultations, and future savings from cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinomas averted. We modeled disease progression to estimate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) by regions and World Bank income groups, according to 3 scenarios: flatline (status quo), progress (testing/treatment according to World Health Organization guidelines), and ambitious (elimination).

RESULTS

Compared with no action, current levels of testing and treatment had an ICER of $807/DALY for HBV and -$62/DALY (cost-saving) for HCV. Scaling up to progress scenario, both interventions had ICERs less than the average gross domestic product/capita of countries (HBV: $532/DALY; HCV: $613/DALY). Scaling up from flatline to elimination led to higher ICERs across countries (HBV: $927/DALY; HCV: $2528/DALY, respectively) that remained lower than the average gross domestic product/capita. Sensitivity analysis indicated discount rates and commodity costs were main factors driving results.

CONCLUSIONS

Scaling up testing and treatment for HBV and HCV infection as per World Health Organization guidelines is a cost-effective intervention. Elimination leads to a much larger impact though ICERs are higher. Price reduction strategies are needed to achieve elimination given the substantial budget impact at current commodity prices.

Spending on Hepatitis C Antivirals in the United States and Canada, 2014 to 2018

OBJECTIVES

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) antivirals have been shown to be highly effective with minimal adverse effects, but they are costly. Little is known about the national spending on this drug class in either Canada or the United States, 2 countries with different drug pricing regulations. Thus the objective of this study was to compare drug expenditure on HCV medications in the United States and Canada.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cross-sectional study using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives (United States) and Geographic Prescription Monitor (Canada) databases, which contains prescription transactions from American and Canadian pharmacies. All prescription claims for the period between January 1, 2014, and June 30, 2018, were used to describe HCV antiviral expenditure in both countries.

RESULTS

The United States and Canada spent $59.7 billion and $2.8 billion on HCV medications, respectively. Population-adjusted HCV medication costs were higher in the United States ($1 million per 100 000 population) compared with Canada ($0.4 million per 100 000 population).

CONCLUSIONS

Although the rates of HCV infection are similar in the 2 countries, these findings highlight the differences in both the reimbursement utilization policy for HCV treatments in the countries and the major differences in drug pricing policies. As policies to reduce drug spending in the United States are explored, this article highlights the potential cost implications of implementing Canadian index pricing.

State of the Hepatitis C Virus Care Cascade

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Assessment of Treatment Strategies to Achieve Hepatitis C Elimination in Canada Using a Validated Model

Importance

Achievement of the World Health Organization (WHO) target of eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030 will require an increase in key services, including harm reduction, HCV screening, and HCV treatment initiatives in member countries. These data are not available for Canada but are important for informing a national HCV elimination strategy.

Objective

To use a decision analytical model to explore the association of different treatment strategies with HCV epidemiology and HCV-associated mortality in Canada and to assess the levels of service increase needed to meet the WHO elimination targets by 2030.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Study participants in this decision analytical model included individuals with hepatitis C virus infection in Canada. Five HCV treatment scenarios (optimistic, very aggressive, aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease) were applied using a previously validated Markov-type mathematical model. The optimistic and very aggressive treatment scenarios modeled a sustained annual treatment of 10 200 persons and 14 000 persons, respectively, from 2018 to 2030. The aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease scenarios assessed decreases in treatment uptake from 14 000 persons to 10 000 persons per year, 12 000 persons to 8500 persons per year, and 12 000 persons to 4500 persons per year, respectively, between 2018 and 2030.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hepatitis C virus prevalence and HCV-associated health outcomes were assessed for each of the 5 treatment scenarios with the goal of identifying strategies to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

Results

An estimated mean 180 142 persons (95% CI, 122 786-196 862 persons) in Canada had chronic HCV infection at the end of 2017. The optimistic and gradual decrease scenarios estimated a decrease in HCV prevalence from 180 142 persons to 37 246 persons and 37 721 persons, respectively, by 2030. Relative to 2015, this decrease in HCV prevalence was associated with 74%, 69%, and 69% reductions in the prevalence of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-associated mortality, respectively, leading to HCV elimination by 2030. More aggressive treatment uptake (very aggressive scenario) could result in goal achievement up to 3 years earlier than 2030, although a rapid decrease in the initiation of treatment (rapid decrease scenario) would preclude Canada from reaching the HCV elimination goal by 2030.

Conclusions and Relevance

The study findings suggest that Canada could meet the WHO goals for HCV elimination by 2030 by sustaining the current national HCV treatment rate during the next decade. This target will not be achieved if treatment uptake is allowed to decrease rapidly.

Estimating the price at which hepatitis C treatment with direct-acting antivirals would be cost-saving in Japan

In Japan, 1.5-2 million people are chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. New direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA) offer an unprecedented opportunity to cure HCV. While the price of HCV treatment decreased recently in most countries, it remains one of the highest in Japan. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HCV treatment in patients of different age groups and to estimate the price at which DAAs become cost-saving in Japan. A previously developed microsimulation model was adapted to the Japanese population and updated with Japan-specific health utilities and costs. Our model showed that compared with no treatment, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of DAAs at a price USD 41,046 per treatment was USD 9,080 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained in 60-year-old patients. HCV treatment became cost-effective after 9 years of starting treatment. However, if the price of DAAs is reduced by 55-85% (USD 6,730 to 17,720), HCV treatment would be cost-saving within a 5 to 20-year time horizon, which should serve to increase the uptake of DAA-based HCV treatment. The payers of health care in Japan could examine ways to procure DAAs at a price where they would be cost-saving.

Effects and cost of different strategies to eliminate hepatitis C virus transmission in Pakistan: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

The WHO elimination strategy for hepatitis C virus advocates scaling up screening and treatment to reduce global hepatitis C incidence by 80% by 2030, but little is known about how this reduction could be achieved and the costs of doing so. We aimed to evaluate the effects and cost of different strategies to scale up screening and treatment of hepatitis C in Pakistan and determine what is required to meet WHO elimination targets for incidence.

METHODS

We adapted a previous model of hepatitis C virus transmission, treatment, and disease progression for Pakistan, calibrating using available data to incorporate a detailed cascade of care for hepatitis C with cost data on diagnostics and hepatitis C treatment. We modelled the effect on various outcomes and costs of alternative scenarios for scaling up screening and hepatitis C treatment in 2018-30. We calibrated the model to country-level demographic data for 1960-2015 (including population growth) and to hepatitis C seroprevalence data from a national survey in 2007-08, surveys among people who inject drugs (PWID), and hepatitis C seroprevalence trends among blood donors. The cascade of care in our model begins with diagnosis of hepatitis C infection through antibody screening and RNA confirmation. Diagnosed individuals are then referred to care and started on treatment, which can result in a sustained virological response (effective cure). We report the median and 95% uncertainty interval (UI) from 1151 modelled runs.

FINDINGS

One-time screening of 90% of the 2018 population by 2030, with 80% referral to treatment, was projected to lead to 13·8 million (95% UI 13·4-14·1) individuals being screened and 350 000 (315 000-385 000) treatments started annually, decreasing hepatitis C incidence by 26·5% (22·5-30·7) over 2018-30. Prioritised screening of high prevalence groups (PWID and adults aged ≥30 years) and rescreening (annually for PWID, otherwise every 10 years) are likely to increase the number screened and treated by 46·8% and decrease incidence by 50·8% (95% UI 46·1-55·0). Decreasing hepatitis C incidence by 80% is estimated to require a doubling of the primary screening rate, increasing referral to 90%, rescreening the general population every 5 years, and re-engaging those lost to follow-up every 5 years. This approach could cost US$8·1 billion, reducing to $3·9 billion with lowest costs for diagnostic tests and drugs, including health-care savings, and implementing a simplified treatment algorithm.

INTERPRETATION

Pakistan will need to invest about 9·0% of its yearly health expenditure to enable sufficient scale up in screening and treatment to achieve the WHO hepatitis C elimination target of an 80% reduction in incidence by 2030.

FUNDING

UNITAID.

Hepatitis C virus elimination in Indonesia: Epidemiological, cost and cost-effectiveness modelling to advance advocacy and strategic planning

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS

In Indonesia 1.9 million people are chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), but a national strategic plan for elimination has not yet been developed, despite the availability of low-cost treatments which could save many lives. We used epidemiological and cost modelling to estimate targets and resource requirements of a national elimination program and explore the potential impact and cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

To model the HCV epidemic, we used a dynamic model, parameterised with Indonesia-specific data, accounting for disease progression, injecting drug use and demographics. Future scale-up scenarios were designed for 2018-2050 to capture possible policy choices. Costs of an initial 5-year national strategy and of long-term elimination were estimated for the most feasible scenario, as agreed with government and local partners. Cost savings from reduced drug and diagnostics prices were also estimated. The cost-effectiveness of baseline predictions and those with drug price reductions were compared to the no treatment scenario.

RESULTS

Elimination by 2045, considered the most feasible path to scale-up, would prevent 739 000 new infections and avert 158 000 HCV-related deaths. The costs would be $5.6 billion (USD) using baseline prices but could fall to $2.7 billion if price reductions for HCV drugs and diagnostics are secured. With these price reductions, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for a 2045 elimination program would be cost-effective at $300 (USD) per year of life saved vs the no treatment scenario.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has underpinned advocacy efforts to secure Indonesian government commitment to HCV elimination, and provides further inputs for HCV strategic planning efforts.

The 8th Canadian Symposium on Hepatitis C virus: “Improving diagnosis and linkage to care”

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) affects approximately 250,000 Canadians. Although safe and effective (>95% cure rates) antiviral therapies have become available within the past 5 years, chronic HCV infection still remains a major driver of end-stage liver disease and liver transplantation. Both the Canadian Institute for Health Research and the Public Health Agency of Canada recognize the impact of HCV-related liver diseases and support the Canadian Network for Hepatitis C (CanHepC), a National network for the scientific study of hepatitis C that organizes an annual symposium as part of its knowledge translation mandate. At the 8th Canadian Symposium on Hepatitis C Virus in May 2019, basic scientists, clinicians, epidemiologists, social scientists, and community members came together to share their work under the theme of “Improving diagnosis and linkage to care”. This symposium also marked the launch of the Blueprint to inform hepatitis C elimination efforts in Canada, a policy framework that outlines specific targets, suggested activities, and evidence-based best practices to guide provincial, territorial and federal organizations developing their own HCV elimination strategies.