Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

Linking resource selection to population performance spatially to identify species' habitat across broad scales: An example of greater sage-grouse in a distinct population segment

Management decisions often focus on the habitat selection of marked individuals without considering the contribution to demographic performance in selected habitats. Because habitat selection is not always adaptive, understanding the spatial relationship between habitat selection and demographic performance is critical to management decisions. Mapping both habitat selection and demographic performance for species of conservation concern can help guide population-scale conservation efforts. We demonstrate a quantitative approach to differentiate areas supporting selection and survival at large spatial extents. As a case study, we applied this approach to greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter, sage-grouse), an indicator species for sagebrush ecosystems. We evaluated both habitat selection and survival across multiple reproductive life stages (nesting, brood-rearing) in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment, a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population of sage-grouse on the southwestern edge of the species' range. Our approach allowed us to identify both mismatches between selection and survival and trade-offs between reproductive life stages. These findings suggest resource demands vary across time, with predation risk being a dominant driver of habitat selection during nesting and early brood-rearing periods when chicks are smaller and flightless, whereas access to forage resources becomes more important during late brood rearing when resources become increasingly limited. Moving beyond identifying and managing habitat solely based on species occupancy or use by incorporating demographic measures allows managers to tailor actions to their specific goals; for example, protections of areas that support high selection and high survival and restoration actions focused on increasing survival in areas of high selection and low survival.

Physiological carry-over effects of variable precipitation are mediated by reproductive status in a long-lived ungulate

In the age of global climate change, extreme climatic events are expected to increase in frequency and severity. Animals will be forced to cope with these novel stressors in their environment. Glucocorticoids (i.e. 'stress' hormones) facilitate an animal's ability to cope with their environment. To date, most studies involving glucocorticoids focus on the immediate physiological effects of an environmental stressor on an individual, few studies have investigated the long-term physiological impacts of such stressors. Here, we tested the hypothesis that previous exposure to an environmental stressor will impart lasting consequences to an individual's glucocorticoid levels. In semi-arid environments, variable rainfall drives forage availability for herbivores. Reduced seasonal precipitation can present an extreme environmental stressor potentially imparting long-term impacts on an individual's glucocorticoid levels. We examined the effects of rainfall and environmental characteristics (i.e. soil and vegetation attributes) during fawn-rearing (i.e. summer) on subsequent glucocorticoid levels of female white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in autumn. We captured 124 adult (≥2.5-year-old) female deer via aerial net-gunning during autumn of 2015, 2016 and 2021 across four populations spanning a gradient of environmental characteristics and rainfall in the semi-arid environment of South Texas, USA. We found for every 1 cm decrease in summer rainfall, faecal glucocorticoid levels in autumn increased 6.9%, but only in lactating females. Glucocorticoid levels in non-lactating, female deer were relatively insensitive to environmental conditions. Our study demonstrates the long-lasting effects of environmental stressors on an individual's glucocorticoid levels. A better understanding of the long-term effects stressors impart on an individual's glucocorticoid levels will help to evaluate the totality of the cost of a stressor to an individual's welfare and predict the consequences of future climate scenarios.

Non-native grazers affect physiological and demographic responses of greater sage-grouse

Non-native ungulate grazing has negatively impacted native species across the globe, leading to massive loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Despite their pervasiveness, interactions between non-native grazers and native species are not fully understood. We often observe declines in demography or survival of these native species, but lack understanding about the mechanisms underlying these declines. Physiological stress represents one mechanism of (mal)adaptation, but data are sparse. We investigated glucocorticoid levels in a native avian herbivore exposed to different intensities of non-native grazing in the cold desert Great Basin ecosystem, USA. We measured corticosterone, a glucocorticoid in feathers for a large sample (n = 280) of female greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) from three study areas in Northern Nevada and Southern Oregon with different grazing regimes of livestock and feral horses. We found that greater feral horse density was associated with higher corticosterone levels, and this effect was exacerbated by drought conditions. Livestock grazing produced similar results; however, there was more model uncertainty about the livestock effect. Subsequent nesting success was lower with increased feather corticosterone, but corticosterone levels were not predictive of other vital rates. Our results indicate a physiological response by sage-grouse to grazing pressure from non-native grazers. We found substantial among-individual variation in the strength of the response. These adverse effects were intensified during unfavorable weather events, highlighting the need to reevaluate management strategies in the face of climate change.

Manipulation of Heat Dissipation Capacity Affects Avian Reproductive Performance and Output

Animal life requires hard work but the ability to endure such workload appears to be limited. Heat dissipation limit (HDL) hypothesis proposes that the capacity to dissipate the excess of body heat during hard work may limit sustained energy use. Experimental facilitations of heat loss rate via feather-clipping in free-living birds seem to support HDL hypothesis but testing of HDL through laboratory experiments under controlled conditions is not reported. We employed a two-factorial experimental design to test HDL hypothesis by manipulating the capacity to dissipate heat through exposure of captive zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata) to a cold and warm ambient temperature (14°C and 25°C), and through manipulation of the insulating layer of feathers around the brood patch in females (clipped and unclipped). To simulate foraging costs encountered in the wild we induced foraging effort by employing a feeding system that necessitated hovering to access food, which increased energetic costs of reproduction despite ad libitum conditions in captivity. We quantified the outcome of reproductive performance at the level of both parents, females, and offspring. Thermal limitations due to warm temperature appeared at the beginning of reproduction for both parents with lower egg-laying success, smaller clutch size and lower egg mass, compared to the cold. After hatching, females with an enhanced ability to dissipate heat through feather-clipping revealed higher body mass compared to unclipped females, and these clipped females also raised heavier and bigger nestlings. Higher levels for oxidative stress in plasma of females were detected prior to reproduction in warm conditions than in the cold. However, oxidative stress biomarkers of mothers were neither affected by temperature nor by feather-clipping during the reproductive activities. We document upregulation of antioxidant capacity during reproduction that seems to prevent increased levels of oxidative stress possibly due to the cost of female body condition and offspring growth. Our study on reproduction under laboratory-controlled conditions corroborates evidence in line with the HDL hypothesis. The link between temperature-constrained sustained performance and reproductive output in terms of quality and quantity is of particular interest in light of the current climate change, and illustrates the emerging risks to avian populations.

Influence of environmental change, harvest exposure, and human disturbance on population trends of greater sage-grouse

Hunter harvest of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter “sage-grouse”) has been regulated by wildlife agencies during most of the past century. Hunting season regulations were maintained with the intention of providing sustainable hunting opportunities. Sage-grouse populations oscillate over time, and population growth can be influenced by seasonal weather and habitat disturbance. From 1995–2013, we compared sage-grouse lek trends from 22 relatively distinct sage-grouse population segments in 9 western U.S. states and 2 Canadian provinces. We stratified these populations into 3 broad categories (non-hunted [n = 8], continuously hunted [n = 10], and hunting season discontinued between 1996–2003 [n = 4]) with 8 different regulation histories to evaluate the potential impact of harvest on sage-grouse populations. Concomitantly, we assessed the effects of proportion burned, forested and cropland habitat; winter, spring, and summer precipitation; and human population, road, and oil and gas well densities on initial and time-varying lek counts. Density-dependent models fit lek trend data best for all regulation histories. In general, higher proportions of burnt, forested, and cropland habitat; and greater human population and oil and gas well densities were associated with lower equilibrium abundance (K). We found mixed results regarding the effect of hunting regulations on instantaneous growth rate (r). The cessation of harvest from 1996–2001 in approximately half of the largest sage-grouse population in our analysis was associated with higher r. Continuously harvested sage-grouse populations with permit hunting seasons had higher r during years with higher proportion of area exposed to permitted hunting rather than general upland game seasons. However, more liberal hunting regulations were positively associated with higher r in populations continuously harvested under general upland game hunts. Our results suggest that discontinuing harvest in the largest population resulted in greater population growth rates; however, this was not consistently the case for smaller populations. To no surprise, not all sage-grouse populations were influenced by the same environmental change or human disturbance factors. Our results will assist managers to understand factors associated with K, which provides the best targets for conservation efforts.

A time-lagged association between the gut microbiome, nestling weight and nestling survival in wild great tits

Natal body mass is a key predictor of viability and fitness in many animals. While variation in body mass and therefore juvenile viability may be explained by genetic and environmental factors, emerging evidence points to the gut microbiota as an important factor influencing host health. The gut microbiota is known to change during development, but it remains unclear whether the microbiome predicts fitness, and if it does, at which developmental stage it affects fitness traits. We collected data on two traits associated with fitness in wild nestling great tits Parus major: weight and survival to fledging. We characterised the gut microbiome using 16S rRNA sequencing from nestling faeces and investigated temporal associations between the gut microbiome and fitness traits across development at Day-8 (D8) and Day-15 (D15) post-hatching. We also explored whether particular microbial taxa were 'indicator species' that reflected whether nestlings survived or not. There was no link between mass and microbial diversity on D8 or D15. However, we detected a time-lagged relationship where weight at D15 was negatively associated with the microbial diversity at D8, controlling for weight at D8, therefore reflecting relative weight gain over the intervening period. Indicator species analysis revealed that specificity values were high and fidelity values were low, suggesting that indicator taxa were primarily detected within either the survived or not survived groups, but not always detected in birds that either survived or died. Therefore these indicator taxa may be sufficient, but not necessary for determining either survival or mortality, perhaps owing to functional overlap in microbiota. We highlight that measuring microbiome-fitness relationships at just one time point may be misleading, especially early in life. Instead, microbial-host fitness effects may be best investigated longitudinally to detect critical development windows for key microbiota and host traits associated with neonatal weight. Our findings should inform future hypothesis testing to pinpoint which features of the gut microbial community impact on host fitness, and when during development this occurs. Such confirmatory research will shed light on population level processes and could have the potential to support conservation.

High temperatures drive offspring mortality in a cooperatively breeding bird

An improved understanding of life-history responses to current environmental variability is required to predict species-specific responses to anthopogenic climate change. Previous research has suggested that cooperation in social groups may buffer individuals against some of the negative effects of unpredictable climates. We use a 15-year dataset on a cooperative breeding arid zone bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor, to test (i) whether environmental conditions and group size correlate with survival of young during three development stages (egg, nestling, fledgling) and (ii) whether group size mitigates the impacts of adverse environmental conditions on survival of young. Exposure to high mean daily maximum temperatures (mean T_max) during early development was associated with reduced survival probabilities of young in all three development stages. No young survived when mean T_max > 38°C, across all group sizes. Low survival of young at high temperatures has broad implications for recruitment and population persistence in avian communities given the rapid pace of advancing climate change. Impacts of high temperatures on survival of young were not moderated by group size, suggesting that the availability of more helpers in a group is unlikely to buffer against compromised offspring survival as average and maximum temperatures increase with rapid anthropogenic climate change.

High temperatures drive offspring mortality in a cooperatively breeding bird

An improved understanding of life-history responses to current environmental variability is required to predict species-specific responses to anthopogenic climate change. Previous research has suggested that cooperation in social groups may buffer individuals against some of the negative effects of unpredictable climates. We use a 15-year dataset on a cooperative breeding arid zone bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor, to test (i) whether environmental conditions and group size correlate with survival of young during three development stages (egg, nestling, fledgling) and (ii) whether group size mitigates the impacts of adverse environmental conditions on survival of young. Exposure to high mean daily maximum temperatures (mean T_max) during early development was associated with reduced survival probabilities of young in all three development stages. No young survived when mean T_max > 38°C, across all group sizes. Low survival of young at high temperatures has broad implications for recruitment and population persistence in avian communities given the rapid pace of advancing climate change. Impacts of high temperatures on survival of young were not moderated by group size, suggesting that the availability of more helpers in a group is unlikely to buffer against compromised offspring survival as average and maximum temperatures increase with rapid anthropogenic climate change.

Pre- to post-fledging carryover effects and the adaptive significance of variation in wing development for juvenile songbirds

Evolutionary ecologists have long been interested in the adaptive significance of morphological traits across stages of animal life. In some cases, traits that are not adaptive in one life stage may be adaptive in a subsequent stage. As such, morphological traits may generate important carryover effects, whereby conditions experienced during one life-history stage influence fitness during subsequent stages. Carryover effects are particularly relevant in young animals, as early life stages are thought to be critical with respect to animal life-history evolution and population dynamics. In songbirds, pre- to post-fledging carryover effects operating within species may be critical for survival and shape life histories among species, but remain poorly understood. Among potential songbird traits, wing development and its associated flight ability may be the most important for post-fledging survival. Thus, to assess the adaptive significance of wing development for juvenile songbirds under Arnold's (Integrative and Comparative Biology, 23, 1983, 347) classic performance-morphology-fitness paradigm, we tested for pre- to post-fledging carryover effects among 20 coexisting species (nine focal species) of an avian community in east-central Illinois, USA. We found evidence for pre- to post-fledging carryover effects of wing development in all species, by which individuals with less developed wings exhibited poorer flight ability and experienced higher rates of mortality after fledging. Furthermore, our findings suggest that carryover effects operating at the species level ultimately help shape patterns of life-history variation among species. Specifically, we found that species with higher rates of nest predation had shorter nestling periods, fledged young with less developed wings and exhibited higher rates of post-fledging mortality. Our results highlight the adaptive significance of wing development as a key factor generating pre- to post-fledging carryover effects among songbirds, and demonstrate how morphological traits, locomotor performance, and age-specific survival may trade-off and interact across juvenile life stages to shape animal life histories.

Seasonal drought in North America's sagebrush biome structures dynamic mesic resources for sage-grouse

The North American semi-arid sagebrush, Artemisia spp., biome exhibits considerable climatic complexity driving dynamic spatiotemporal shifts in primary productivity. Greater and Gunnison sage-grouse, Centrocercus urophasianus and C. minimus, are adapted to patterns of resource intermittence and rely on stable adult survival supplemented by occasional recruitment pulses when climatic conditions are favorable. Predictions of intensifying water scarcity raise concerns over new demographic bottlenecks impacting sage-grouse populations in drought-sensitive landscapes. We estimate biome-wide mesic resource productivity from 1984 to 2016 using remote sensing to identify patterns of food availability influencing selective pressures on sage-grouse. We linked productivity to abiotic factors to examine effects of seasonal drought across time, space, and land tenure, with findings partitioned along gradients of ecosystem water balance within Great Basin, Rocky Mountains and Great Plains regions. Precipitation was the driver of mesic resource abundance explaining ≥70% of variance in drought-limited vegetative productivity. Spatiotemporal shifts in mesic abundance were apparent given biome-wide climatic trends that reduced precipitation below three-quarters of normal in 20% of years. Drought sensitivity structured grouse populations wherein landscapes with the greatest uncertainty in mesic abundance and distribution supported the fewest grouse. Privately owned lands encompassed 40% of sage-grouse range, but contained a disproportional 68% of mesic resources. Regional drought sensitivity identified herein acted as ecological minimums to influence differences in landscape carrying capacity across sage-grouse range. Our model depictions likely reflect a new normal in water scarcity that could compound impacts of demographic bottlenecks in Great Basin and Great Plains. We conclude that long-term population maintenance depends on a diversity of drought resistant mesic resources that offset climate driven variability in vegetative productivity. We recommend a holistic public-private lands approach to mesic restoration to offset a deepening risk of water scarcity.

Precipitation and ectoparasitism reduce reproductive success in an arctic-nesting top-predator

Indirect impacts of climate change, mediated by new species interactions (including pathogens or parasites) will likely be key drivers of biodiversity reorganization. In addition, direct effects of extreme weather events remain understudied. Simultaneous investigation of the significance of ectoparasites on host populations and extreme weather events is lacking, especially in the Arctic. Here we document the consequences of recent black fly outbreaks and extreme precipitation events on the reproductive output of an arctic top predator, the peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus tundrius) nesting at the northern range limit of ornithophilic black flies in Nunavut, Canada. Overall, black fly outbreaks and heavy rain reduced annual nestling survival by up to 30% and 50% respectively. High mortality caused by ectoparasites followed record-breaking spring snow precipitation, which likely increased stream discharge and nutrient runoff, two key parameters involved in growth and survival of black fly larvae. Using the RCP4.5 intermediate climate scenario run under the Canadian Global Climate Model, we anticipate a northward expansion of black fly distribution in Arctic regions. Our case study demonstrates that, in the context of climate change, extreme weather events can have substantial direct and indirect effects on reproductive output of an arctic top-predator population.

Timing of precipitation in an arid environment: Effects on population performance of a large herbivore

Climate models predict that shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns are likely to occur across the globe. Changing climate will likely have strong effects on arid environments as a result of increased temperatures, increasing frequency and intensity of droughts, and less consistent pulses of rainfall. Therefore, understanding the link between patterns of precipitation, temperature, and population performance of species occupying these environments will continue to increase in importance as climatic shifts occur within these natural ecosystems. We sought to evaluate how individual, maternal, population, and environmental, particularly temperature and precipitation, level factors influence population performance of a large herbivore in an arid environment. We used mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) as a representative species and quantified juvenile survival to test hypotheses about effects of environmental factors on population performance. Precipitation events occurring in mid‐ to late‐pregnancy (January–April) leading to spring green‐up, as indexed by normalized difference in vegetation index, had the strongest positive effect on juvenile survival and recruitment. In addition, larger neonates had an increased probability of survival. Our findings indicate that timing and amount of precipitation prior to parturition have strong influences on maternal nutritional condition, which was passed on to young. These results have important implications for understanding how animal populations may benefit from timing of precipitation during spring and prior to parturition, especially in arid environments.

Probability of lek collapse is lower inside sage-grouse Core Areas: Effectiveness of conservation policy for a landscape species

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) occupy sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitats in 11 western states and 2 Canadian provinces. In September 2015, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service announced the listing status for sage-grouse had changed from warranted but precluded to not warranted. The primary reason cited for this change of status was that the enactment of new regulatory mechanisms was sufficient to protect sage-grouse populations. One such plan is the 2008, Wyoming Sage Grouse Executive Order (SGEO), enacted by Governor Freudenthal. The SGEO identifies “Core Areas” that are to be protected by keeping them relatively free from further energy development and limiting other forms of anthropogenic disturbances near active sage-grouse leks. Using the Wyoming Game and Fish Department’s sage-grouse lek count database and the Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission database of oil and gas well locations, we investigated the effectiveness of Wyoming’s Core Areas, specifically: 1) how well Core Areas encompass the distribution of sage-grouse in Wyoming, 2) whether Core Area leks have a reduced probability of lek collapse, and 3) what, if any, edge effects intensification of oil and gas development adjacent to Core Areas may be having on Core Area populations.

Core Areas contained 77% of male sage-grouse attending leks and 64% of active leks. Using Bayesian binomial probability analysis, we found an average 10.9% probability of lek collapse in Core Areas and an average 20.4% probability of lek collapse outside Core Areas. Using linear regression, we found development density outside Core Areas was related to the probability of lek collapse inside Core Areas. Specifically, probability of collapse among leks >4.83 km from inside Core Area boundaries was significantly related to well density within 1.61 km (1-mi) and 4.83 km (3-mi) outside of Core Area boundaries. Collectively, these data suggest that the Wyoming Core Area Strategy has benefited sage-grouse and sage-grouse habitat conservation; however, additional guidelines limiting development densities adjacent to Core Areas may be necessary to effectively protect Core Area populations.

Apparent survival and cost of reproduction for White-lined Tanager (Tachyphonus rufus, Thraupidae) in the northern Atlantic Rainforest, Brazil

Understanding latitudinal variation in avian life-history traits has been a focus of many demographic studies around the world. However, we still know little about annual or intra-annual demographic variation within tropical regions or about how factors such as breeding season and precipitation influence demographic rates. In this study, we estimated intra-annual apparent survival of the White-lined Tanager (Tachyphonus rufus) using capture-mark-recapture data from northeastern Brazil. We tested whether survival varied seasonally (breeding vs. non-breeding), with rainfall, by age and residence status in our study area. Intra-annual apparent survival was correlated with the reproductive cycle, being lower during the breeding (0.65 ± 0.16 SE) vs. the non-breeding season (0.97 ± 0.05 SE). The annual apparent survival (~0.6) was relatively low for a tropical species. In both years, we observed highest abundance in spring (November, 3.1-3.7 birds/ha) and lowest abundance in autumn-winter periods (May-August, 1.1-1.4 bird/ha). The low survival during the breeding season probably reflects the trade-off between survival and reproduction and the cost of reproduction. Our findings represent an advance in the understanding of the demography of tropical birds because we did not find a predicted high annual apparent survival, and we elucidated some aspects of intra-annual variation in survival. Further exploration of latitudinal variation in demographic traits, especially in diverse, but poorly known habitats is needed to fully vet and develop life history theories.

Extreme climatic events constrain space use and survival of a ground-nesting bird

Two fundamental issues in ecology are understanding what influences the distribution and abundance of organisms through space and time. While it is well established that broad-scale patterns of abiotic and biotic conditions affect organisms' distributions and population fluctuations, discrete events may be important drivers of space use, survival, and persistence. These discrete extreme climatic events can constrain populations and space use at fine scales beyond that which is typically measured in ecological studies. Recently, a growing body of literature has identified thermal stress as a potential mechanism in determining space use and survival. We sought to determine how ambient temperature at fine temporal scales affected survival and space use for a ground-nesting quail species (Colinus virginianus; northern bobwhite). We modeled space use across an ambient temperature gradient (ranging from -20 to 38 °C) through a maxent algorithm. We also used Andersen-Gill proportional hazard models to assess the influence of ambient temperature-related variables on survival through time. Estimated available useable space ranged from 18.6% to 57.1% of the landscape depending on ambient temperature. The lowest and highest ambient temperature categories (<-15 °C and >35 °C, respectively) were associated with the least amount of estimated useable space (18.6% and 24.6%, respectively). Range overlap analysis indicated dissimilarity in areas where Colinus virginianus were restricted during times of thermal extremes (range overlap = 0.38). This suggests that habitat under a given condition is not necessarily a habitat under alternative conditions. Further, we found survival was most influenced by weekly minimum ambient temperatures. Our results demonstrate that ecological constraints can occur along a thermal gradient and that understanding the effects of these discrete events and how they change over time may be more important to conservation of organisms than are average and broad-scale conditions as typically measured in ecological studies.

Weather, habitat composition, and female behavior interact to modify offspring survival in Greater Sage-Grouse

Weather is a source of environmental variation that can affect population vital rates. However, the influence of weather on individual fitness is spatially heterogeneous and can be driven by other environmental factors, such as habitat composition. Therefore, individuals can experience reduced fitness (e.g., decreased reproductive success) during poor environmental conditions through poor decisions regarding habitat selection. This requires, however, that habitat selection is adaptive and that the organism can correctly interpret the environmental cues to modify habitat use. Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are an obligate of the sagebrush ecosystems of western North America, relying on sagebrush for food and cover. Greater Sage-Grouse chicks, however, require foods with high nutrient content (i.e., forbs and insects), the abundance of which is both temporally and spatially dynamic and related primarily to water availability. Our goal was to assess whether nest site selection and movements of broods by females reduced the negative effect of drought on offspring survival. As predicted, chick survival was negatively influenced by drought severity. We found that sage-grouse females generally preferred to nest and raise their young in locations where their chicks would experience higher survival. We also found that use of habitats positively associated with chick survival were also positively associated with drought severity, which suggests that females reduced drought impacts on their dependent young by selecting more favorable environments during drought years. Although our findings suggest that female nest site selection and brood movement rates can reduce the negative effects of drought on early offspring survival, the influence of severe drought conditions was not completely mitigated by female behavior, and that drought conditions should be considered a threat to Greater Sage-Grouse population persistence.