Brain age prediction: A comparison between machine learning models using region- and voxel-based morphometric data

Brain age prediction based on brain region volume modeling under broad network field of view

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Brain region volume from Structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging (sMRI) can directly reflect abnormal states in brain aging. While promising for clinical brain health assessment, existing volume-based brain age prediction methods fail to explore both linear and nonlinear relationships, resulting in weak representation and suboptimal estimates.

METHODS

This paper proposes a brain age prediction method, RFBLSO, based on Random Forest (RF), Broad Learning System (BLS), and Leave-One-Out Cross Validation (LOO). Firstly, RF is used to eliminate redundant brain regions with low correlation to the target value. The objective function is constructed by integrating feature nodes, enhancement nodes, and optimal regularization parameters. Subsequently, the pseudo-inverse method is employed to solve for the output coefficients, which facilitates a more accurate representation of the linear and nonlinear relationships between volume features and brain age.

RESULTS

Across various datasets, RFBLSO demonstrates the capability to formulate brain age prediction models, achieving a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 4.60 years within the Healthy Group and 4.98 years within the Chinese2020 dataset. In the Clinical Group, RFBLSO achieves measurement and effective differentiation among Healthy Controls (HC), Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), and Alzheimer's disease (AD) (MAE for HC, MCI, and AD: 4.46 years, 8.77 years, 13.67 years; the effect size η2 of the analysis of variance for AD/MCI vs. HC is 0.23; the effect sizes of post-hoc tests are Cohen's d = 0.74 (AD vs. MCI), 1.50 (AD vs. HC), 0.77 (MCI vs. HC)). Compared to other linear or nonlinear brain age prediction methods, RFBLSO offers more accurate measurements and effectively distinguishes between Clinical Groups. This is because RFBLSO can simultaneously explore both linear and nonlinear relationships between brain region volume and brain age.

CONCLUSION

The proposed RFBLSO effectively represents both linear and nonlinear relationships between brain region volume and brain age, allowing for more accurate individual brain age estimation. This provides a feasible method for predicting the risk of neurodegenerative diseases.

Enhancing brain age estimation under uncertainty: A spectral-normalized neural gaussian process approach utilizing 2.5D slicing

Brain age gap, the difference between estimated brain age and chronological age via magnetic resonance imaging, has emerged as a pivotal biomarker in the detection of brain abnormalities. While deep learning is accurate in estimating brain age, the absence of uncertainty estimation may pose risks in clinical use. Moreover, current 3D brain age models are intricate, and using 2D slices hinders comprehensive dimensional data integration. Here, we introduced Spectral-normalized Neural Gaussian Process (SNGP) accompanied by 2.5D slice approach for seamless uncertainty integration in a single network with low computational expenses, and extra dimensional data integration without added model complexity. Subsequently, we compared different deep learning methods for estimating brain age uncertainty via the Pearson correlation coefficient, a metric that helps circumvent systematic underestimation of uncertainty during training. SNGP shows excellent uncertainty estimation and generalization on a dataset of 11 public datasets (N = 6327), with competitive predictive performance (MAE=2.95). Besides, SNGP demonstrates superior generalization performance (MAE=3.47) on an independent validation set (N = 301). Additionally, we conducted five controlled experiments to validate our method. Firstly, uncertainty adjustment in brain age estimation improved the detection of accelerated brain aging in adolescents with ADHD, with a 38% increase in effect size after adjustment. Secondly, the SNGP model exhibited OOD detection capabilities, showing significant differences in uncertainty across Asian and non-Asian datasets. Thirdly, the performance of DenseNet as a backbone for SNGP was slightly better than ResNeXt, attributed to DenseNet's feature reuse capability, with robust generalization on an independent validation set. Fourthly, site effect harmonization led to a decline in model performance, consistent with previous studies. Finally, the 2.5D slice approach significantly outperformed 2D methods, improving model performance without increasing network complexity. In conclusion, we present a cost-effective method for estimating brain age with uncertainty, utilizing 2.5D slicing for enhanced performance, showcasing promise for clinical applications.

Unveiling Alzheimer's disease through brain age estimation using multi-kernel regression network and magnetic resonance imaging

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies have unveiled age-related anatomical changes across various brain regions. The disparity between actual age and estimated age, known as the Brain-Predicted Age Difference (Brain-PAD), serves as an indicator for predicting neurocognitive ailments or brain abnormalities resulting from diseases. This study aims to develop an accurate brain age prediction model that can assist in identifying potential neurocognitive impairments.

METHODS

The present study implemented a brain age prediction model using a ResNet-50 deep network and a multi-kernel extreme learning machine (MKELM) regression network, relying on MRI images. Kernel methods translate input information into higher-dimensional space by introducing nonlinearity and enabling the model to grasp complicated data patterns. A multi-kernel function combines the Gaussian and polynomial kernels and is incorporated into the brain age regression model. The model effectively utilizes the benefits of both kernel functions to estimate the ages accurately. MRI scans are segmented into gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) maps preprocessed and extracted of significant features using the ResNet-50 deep network. Extracted features of the WM and GM datasets are fed into the MKELM regression model for brain age prediction.

RESULTS

The proposed age estimation framework achieved 3.06 years of mean absolute error (MAE) and 4.12 years of root mean square error (RMSE) on healthy controls (HC) WM scans, and on GM scans, 2.73 years of MAE and 3.65 years of RMSE values. To further validate the importance of Brain-PAD as a biomarker for identifying brain health conditions, an independent testing dataset of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) subjects age is predicted. The Brain-PAD values for AD subjects' GM images are significantly higher compared to those of HC and MCI subjects, indicating distinct brain health conditions. Furthermore, variations in GM and WM tissue were identified in AD subjects, revealing that the parahippocampus and corpus callosum were notably affected.

CONCLUSION

Our findings underscore the potential of Brain-PAD as a significant biomarker for assessing brain health, with implications for early detection of neurocognitive diseases. The developed framework effectively estimates brain age using MRI, contributing valuable insights into the relationship between brain structure and cognitive health.

Neurofind: using deep learning to make individualised inferences in brain-based disorders

Within precision psychiatry, there is a growing interest in normative models given their ability to parse heterogeneity. While they are intuitive and informative, the technical expertise and resources required to develop normative models may not be accessible to most researchers. Here we present Neurofind, a new freely available tool that bridges this gap by wrapping sound and previously tested methods on data harmonisation and advanced normative models into a web-based platform that requires minimal input from the user. We explain how Neurofind was developed, how to use the Neurofind website in four simple steps ( www.neurofind.ai ), and provide exemplar applications. Neurofind takes as input structural MRI images and outputs two main metrics derived from independent normative models: (1) Outlier Index Score, a deviation score from the normative brain morphology, and (2) Brain Age, the predicted age based on an individual's brain morphometry. The tool was trained on 3362 images of healthy controls aged 20-80 from publicly available datasets. The volume of 101 cortical and subcortical regions was extracted and modelled with an adversarial autoencoder for the Outlier index model and a support vector regression for the Brain age model. To illustrate potential applications, we applied Neurofind to 364 images from three independent datasets of patients diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia. In Alzheimer's disease, 55.2% of patients had very extreme Outlier Index Scores, mostly driven by larger deviations in temporal-limbic structures and ventricles. Patients were also homogeneous in how they deviated from the norm. Conversely, only 30.1% of schizophrenia patients were extreme outliers, due to deviations in the hippocampus and pallidum, and patients tended to be more heterogeneous than controls. Both groups showed signs of accelerated brain ageing.

A review of artificial intelligence-based brain age estimation and its applications for related diseases

The study of brain age has emerged over the past decade, aiming to estimate a person's age based on brain imaging scans. Ideally, predicted brain age should match chronological age in healthy individuals. However, brain structure and function change in the presence of brain-related diseases. Consequently, brain age also changes in affected individuals, making the brain age gap (BAG)-the difference between brain age and chronological age-a potential biomarker for brain health, early screening, and identifying age-related cognitive decline and disorders. With the recent successes of artificial intelligence in healthcare, it is essential to track the latest advancements and highlight promising directions. This review paper presents recent machine learning techniques used in brain age estimation (BAE) studies. Typically, BAE models involve developing a machine learning regression model to capture age-related variations in brain structure from imaging scans of healthy individuals and automatically predict brain age for new subjects. The process also involves estimating BAG as a measure of brain health. While we discuss recent clinical applications of BAE methods, we also review studies of biological age that can be integrated into BAE research. Finally, we point out the current limitations of BAE's studies.

A machine-learning algorithm for predicting brain age using Rey-Osterrieth complex figure tests of healthy participants

OBJECTIVE

Neuropsychologists widely use the Rey-Osterrieth complex figure test (RCFT) as part of neuropsychological test batteries to evaluate cognitive function and assess constructional ability, with age being the most significant factor. Our study investigated a supervised machine learning (ML) algorithm to predict brain age gap using RCFT drawings from the healthy elderly community for early dementia detection.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

RCFT drawings from 1,970 healthy subjects (ages 45-90 years) were collected from the Korean elderly community. We recorded subject demographic information including: age, gender, and education level. We trained the ML model with RCFT copies, immediate recall, delayed recall, and education level of the healthy subjects using CNN regression algorithm from Keras (https://keras.io/) with the Tensorflow library.

RESULTS

The performance was evaluated by the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) between the predicted age and the chronological age based on a test dataset of 300 healthy subjects. The CNN regression model achieved an MAE of 7.2 years in predicting the brain age gap of the subjects, with an RMSE of 8.9 years.

CONCLUSION

The MAE and RMSE accuracies of the CNN regression model predicting the brain age gap showed the model could be a potential biomarker for individual brain aging and a cost-effective method for early dementia detection.

Predicting brain age with global-local attention network from multimodal neuroimaging data: Accuracy, generalizability, and behavioral associations

Brain age, an emerging biomarker for brain diseases and aging, is typically predicted using single-modality T1-weighted structural MRI data. This study investigates the benefits of integrating structural MRI with diffusion MRI to enhance brain age prediction. We propose an attention-based deep learning model that fuses global-context information from structural MRI with local details from diffusion metrics. The model was evaluated using two large datasets: the Human Connectome Project (HCP, n = 1064, age 22-37) and the Cambridge Center for Aging and Neuroscience (Cam-CAN, n = 639, age 18-88). It was tested for generalizability and robustness on three independent datasets (n = 546, age 20-86), reproducibility on a test-retest dataset (n = 44, age 22-35), and longitudinal consistency (n = 129, age 46-92). We also examined the relationship between predicted brain age and behavioral measures. Results showed that the multimodal model improved prediction accuracy, achieving mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 2.44 years in the HCP dataset (sagittal plane) and 4.36 years in the Cam-CAN dataset (axial plane). The corresponding R2 values were 0.258 and 0.914, respectively, reflecting the model's ability to explain variance in the predictions across both datasets. Compared to single-modality models, the multimodal approach showed better generalization, reducing MAEs by 10-76 % and enhancing robustness by 22-82 %. While the multimodal model exhibited superior reproducibility, the sMRI model showed slightly better longitudinal consistency. Importantly, the multimodal model revealed unique associations between predicted brain age and behavioral measures, such as walking endurance and loneliness in the HCP dataset, which were not detected with chronological age alone. In the Cam-CAN dataset, brain age and chronological age exhibited similar correlations with behavioral measures. By integrating sMRI and dMRI through an attention-based model, our proposed approach enhances predictive accuracy and provides deeper insights into the relationship between brain aging and behavior.

Explainable brain age prediction: a comparative evaluation of morphometric and deep learning pipelines

Brain age, a biomarker reflecting brain health relative to chronological age, is increasingly used in neuroimaging to detect early signs of neurodegenerative diseases and support personalized treatment plans. Two primary approaches for brain age prediction have emerged: morphometric feature extraction from MRI scans and deep learning (DL) applied to raw MRI data. However, a systematic comparison of these methods regarding performance, interpretability, and clinical utility has been limited. In this study, we present a comparative evaluation of two pipelines: one using morphometric features from FreeSurfer and the other employing 3D convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Using a multisite neuroimaging dataset, we assessed both model performance and the interpretability of predictions through eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods, applying SHAP to the feature-based pipeline and Grad-CAM and DeepSHAP to the CNN-based pipeline. Our results show comparable performance between the two pipelines in Leave-One-Site-Out (LOSO) validation, achieving state-of-the-art performance on the independent test set ( M A E = 3.21 with DNN and morphometric features and M A E = 3.08 with a DenseNet-121 architecture). SHAP provided the most consistent and interpretable results, while DeepSHAP exhibited greater variability. Further work is needed to assess the clinical utility of Grad-CAM. This study addresses a critical gap by systematically comparing the interpretability of multiple XAI methods across distinct brain age prediction pipelines. Our findings underscore the importance of integrating XAI into clinical practice, offering insights into how XAI outputs vary and their potential utility for clinicians.

Low-Rank Tensor Fusion for Enhanced Deep Learning-Based Multimodal Brain Age Estimation

Background/Objectives: A multimodal brain age estimation model could provide enhanced insights into brain aging. However, effectively integrating multimodal neuroimaging data to enhance the accuracy of brain age estimation remains a challenging task. Methods: In this study, we developed an innovative data fusion technique employing a low-rank tensor fusion algorithm, tailored specifically for deep learning-based frameworks aimed at brain age estimation. Specifically, we utilized structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), and magnetoencephalography (MEG) to extract spatial-temporal brain features with different properties. These features were fused using the low-rank tensor algorithm and employed as predictors for estimating brain age. Results: Our prediction model achieved a desirable prediction accuracy on the independent test samples, demonstrating its robust performance. Conclusions: The results of our study suggest that the low-rank tensor fusion algorithm has the potential to effectively integrate multimodal data into deep learning frameworks for estimating brain age.

Multimodal brain age prediction using machine learning: combining structural MRI and 5-HT2AR PET-derived features

To better assess the pathology of neurodegenerative disorders and the efficacy of neuroprotective interventions, it is necessary to develop biomarkers that can accurately capture age-related biological changes in the human brain. Brain serotonin 2A receptors (5-HT2AR) show a particularly profound age-related decline and are also reduced in neurodegenerative disorders, such as Alzheimer's disease. This study investigates whether the decline in 5-HT2AR binding, measured in vivo using positron emission tomography (PET), can be used as a biomarker for brain aging. Specifically, we aim to (1) predict brain age using 5-HT2AR binding outcomes, (2) compare 5-HT2AR-based predictions of brain age to predictions based on gray matter (GM) volume, as determined with structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and (3) investigate whether combining 5-HT2AR and GM volume data improves prediction. We used PET and MR images from 209 healthy individuals aged between 18 and 85 years (mean = 38, std = 18) and estimated 5-HT2AR binding and GM volume for 14 cortical and subcortical regions. Different machine learning algorithms were applied to predict chronological age based on 5-HT2AR binding, GM volume, and the combined measures. The mean absolute error (MAE) and a cross-validation approach were used for evaluation and model comparison. We find that both the cerebral 5-HT2AR binding (mean MAE = 6.63 years, std = 0.74 years) and GM volume (mean MAE = 6.95 years, std = 0.83 years) predict chronological age accurately. Combining the two measures improves the prediction further (mean MAE = 5.54 years, std = 0.68). In conclusion, 5-HT2AR binding measured using PET might be useful for improving the quantification of a biomarker for brain aging.

A perspective on brain-age estimation and its clinical promise

Brain-age estimation has gained increased attention in the neuroscientific community owing to its potential use as a biomarker of brain health. The difference between estimated and chronological age based on neuroimaging data enables a unique perspective on brain development and aging, with multiple open questions still remaining in the brain-age research field. This Perspective presents an overview of current advancements in the field and envisions the future evolution of the brain-age framework before its potential deployment in hospital settings.

[18F]FDG PET integrated with structural MRI for accurate brain age prediction

PURPOSE

Brain aging is a complex and heterogeneous process characterized by both structural and functional decline. This study aimed to establish a novel deep learning (DL) method for predicting brain age by utilizing structural and metabolic imaging data.

METHODS

The dataset comprised participants from both the Universal Medical Imaging Diagnostic Center (UMIDC) and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The former recruited 395 normal control (NC) subjects, while the latter included 438 NC subjects, 51 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects, and 56 Alzheimer's disease (AD) subjects. We developed a novel dual-pathway, 3D simple fully convolutional network (Dual-SFCNeXt) to estimate brain age using [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography ([18F]FDG PET) and structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) images of NC subjects as input. Several prevailing DL models were trained and tested using either MRI or PET data for comparison. Model accuracies were evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and Pearson's correlation coefficient (r). Brain age gap (BAG), deviations of brain age from chronologic age, was correlated with cognitive assessments in MCI and AD subjects.

RESULTS

Both PET- and MRI-based models achieved high prediction accuracy. The leading model was the SFCNeXt (the single-pathway version) for PET (MAE = 2.92, r = 0.96) and MRI (MAE = 3.23, r = 0.95) on all samples. By integrating both PET and MRI images, the Dual-SFCNeXt demonstrated significantly improved accuracy (MAE = 2.37, r = 0.97) compared to all single-modality models. Significantly higher BAG was observed in both the AD (P < 0.0001) and MCI (P < 0.0001) groups compared to the NC group. BAG correlated significantly with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores (r=-0.390 for AD, r=-0.436 for MCI) and the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) scores (r = 0.333 for AD, r = 0.372 for MCI).

CONCLUSION

The integration of [18F]FDG PET with structural MRI enhances the accuracy of brain age prediction, potentially introducing a new avenue for related multimodal brain age prediction studies.

Analysis of Brain Age Gap across Subject Cohorts and Prediction Model Architectures

Background: Brain age prediction from brain MRI scans and the resulting brain age gap (BAG)-the difference between predicted brain age and chronological age-is a general biomarker for a variety of neurological, psychiatric, and other diseases or disorders. Methods: This study examined the differences in BAG values derived from T1-weighted scans using five state-of-the-art deep learning model architectures previously used in the brain age literature: 2D/3D VGG, RelationNet, ResNet, and SFCN. The models were evaluated on healthy controls and cohorts with sleep apnea, diabetes, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease, mild cognitive impairment, and Alzheimer's disease, employing rigorous statistical analysis, including repeated model training and linear mixed-effects models. Results: All five models consistently identified a statistically significant positive BAG for diabetes (ranging from 0.79 years with RelationNet to 2.13 years with SFCN), multiple sclerosis (2.67 years with 3D VGG to 4.24 years with 2D VGG), mild cognitive impairment (2.13 years with 2D VGG to 2.59 years with 3D VGG), and Alzheimer's dementia (5.54 years with ResNet to 6.48 years with SFCN). For Parkinson's disease, a statistically significant BAG increase was observed in all models except ResNet (1.30 years with 2D VGG to 2.59 years with 3D VGG). For sleep apnea, a statistically significant BAG increase was only detected with the SFCN model (1.59 years). Additionally, we observed a trend of decreasing BAG with increasing chronological age, which was more pronounced in diseased cohorts, particularly those with the largest BAG, such as multiple sclerosis (-0.34 to -0.2), mild cognitive impairment (-0.37 to -0.26), and Alzheimer's dementia (-0.66 to -0.47), compared to healthy controls (-0.18 to -0.1). Conclusions: Consistent with previous research, Alzheimer's dementia and multiple sclerosis exhibited the largest BAG across all models, with SFCN predicting the highest BAG overall. The negative BAG trend suggests a complex interplay of survival bias, disease progression, adaptation, and therapy that influences brain age prediction across the age spectrum.

Brain Age Gap in Early Illness Schizophrenia and the Clinical High-Risk Syndrome: Associations With Experiential Negative Symptoms and Conversion to Psychosis

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Brain development/aging is not uniform across individuals, spawning efforts to characterize brain age from a biological perspective to model the effects of disease and maladaptive life processes on the brain. The brain age gap represents the discrepancy between estimated brain biological age and chronological age (in this case, based on structural magnetic resonance imaging, MRI). Structural MRI studies report an increased brain age gap (biological age > chronological age) in schizophrenia, with a greater brain age gap related to greater negative symptom severity. Less is known regarding the nature of this gap early in schizophrenia (ESZ), if this gap represents a psychosis conversion biomarker in clinical high-risk (CHR-P) individuals, and how altered brain development and/or aging map onto specific symptom facets.

STUDY DESIGN

Using structural MRI, we compared the brain age gap among CHR-P (n = 51), ESZ (n = 78), and unaffected comparison participants (UCP; n = 90), and examined associations with CHR-P psychosis conversion (CHR-P converters n = 10; CHR-P non-converters; n = 23) and positive and negative symptoms.

STUDY RESULTS

ESZ showed a greater brain age gap relative to UCP and CHR-P (Ps < .010). CHR-P individuals who converted to psychosis showed a greater brain age gap (P = .043) relative to CHR-P non-converters. A larger brain age gap in ESZ was associated with increased experiential (P = .008), but not expressive negative symptom severity.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with schizophrenia pathophysiological models positing abnormal brain maturation, results suggest abnormal brain development is present early in psychosis. An increased brain age gap may be especially relevant to motivational and functional deficits in schizophrenia.

Decoding MRI-informed brain age using mutual information

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop a standardized method to investigate the relationship between estimated brain age and regional morphometric features, meeting the criteria for simplicity, generalization, and intuitive interpretability.

METHODS

We utilized T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data from the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience project (N = 609) and employed a support vector regression method to train a brain age model. The pre-trained brain age model was applied to the dataset of the brain development project (N = 547). Kraskov (KSG) estimator was used to compute the mutual information (MI) value between brain age and regional morphometric features, including gray matter volume (GMV), white matter volume (WMV), cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) volume, and cortical thickness (CT).

RESULTS

Among four types of brain features, GMV had the highest MI value (8.71), peaking in the pre-central gyrus (0.69). CSF volume was ranked second (7.76), with the highest MI value in the cingulate (0.87). CT was ranked third (6.22), with the highest MI value in superior temporal gyrus (0.53). WMV had the lowest MI value (4.59), with the insula showing the highest MI value (0.53). For brain parenchyma, the volume of the superior frontal gyrus exhibited the highest MI value (0.80).

CONCLUSION

This is the first demonstration that MI value between estimated brain age and morphometric features may serve as a benchmark for assessing the regional contributions to estimated brain age. Our findings highlighted that both GMV and CSF are the key features that determined the estimated brain age, which may add value to existing computational models of brain age.

CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

Mutual information (MI) analysis reveals gray matter volume (GMV) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) volume as pivotal in computing individuals' brain age.

KEY POINTS

Mutual information (MI) interprets estimated brain age with morphometric features. Gray matter volume in the pre-central gyrus has the highest MI value for estimated brain age. Cerebrospinal fluid volume in the cingulate has the highest MI value. Regarding brain parenchymal volume, the superior frontal gyrus has the highest MI value. The value of mutual information underscores the key brain regions related to brain age.

Brain-age prediction: Systematic evaluation of site effects, and sample age range and size

Structural neuroimaging data have been used to compute an estimate of the biological age of the brain (brain-age) which has been associated with other biologically and behaviorally meaningful measures of brain development and aging. The ongoing research interest in brain-age has highlighted the need for robust and publicly available brain-age models pre-trained on data from large samples of healthy individuals. To address this need we have previously released a developmental brain-age model. Here we expand this work to develop, empirically validate, and disseminate a pre-trained brain-age model to cover most of the human lifespan. To achieve this, we selected the best-performing model after systematically examining the impact of seven site harmonization strategies, age range, and sample size on brain-age prediction in a discovery sample of brain morphometric measures from 35,683 healthy individuals (age range: 5-90 years; 53.59% female). The pre-trained models were tested for cross-dataset generalizability in an independent sample comprising 2101 healthy individuals (age range: 8-80 years; 55.35% female) and for longitudinal consistency in a further sample comprising 377 healthy individuals (age range: 9-25 years; 49.87% female). This empirical examination yielded the following findings: (1) the accuracy of age prediction from morphometry data was higher when no site harmonization was applied; (2) dividing the discovery sample into two age-bins (5-40 and 40-90 years) provided a better balance between model accuracy and explained age variance than other alternatives; (3) model accuracy for brain-age prediction plateaued at a sample size exceeding 1600 participants. These findings have been incorporated into CentileBrain (https://centilebrain.org/#/brainAGE2), an open-science, web-based platform for individualized neuroimaging metrics.

Predicting brain age gap with radiomics and automl: A Promising approach for age-Related brain degeneration biomarkers

The Brain Age Gap (BAG), which refers to the difference between chronological age and predicted neuroimaging age, is proposed as a potential biomarker for age-related brain degeneration. However, existing brain age prediction models usually rely on a single marker and can not discover meaningful hidden information in radiographic images. This study focuses on the application of radiomics, an advanced imaging analysis technique, combined with automated machine learning to predict BAG. Our methods achieve a promising result with a mean absolute error of 1.509 using the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset. Furthermore, we find that the hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus play a significant role in predicting age with interpretable method called SHapley Additive exPlanations. Additionally, our investigation of age prediction discrepancies between patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) reveals a notable correlation with clinical cognitive assessment scale scores. This suggests that BAG has the potential to serve as a biomarker to support the diagnosis of AD and MCI. Overall, this study presents valuable insights into the application of neuroimaging models in the diagnosis of neurodegenerative diseases.

Predicting Brain Age and Gender from Brain Volume Data Using Variational Quantum Circuits

The morphology of the brain undergoes changes throughout the aging process, and accurately predicting a person's brain age and gender using brain morphology features can aid in detecting atypical brain patterns. Neuroimaging-based estimation of brain age is commonly used to assess an individual's brain health relative to a typical aging trajectory, while accurately classifying gender from neuroimaging data offers valuable insights into the inherent neurological differences between males and females. In this study, we aimed to compare the efficacy of classical machine learning models with that of a quantum machine learning method called a variational quantum circuit in estimating brain age and predicting gender based on structural magnetic resonance imaging data. We evaluated six classical machine learning models alongside a quantum machine learning model using both combined and sub-datasets, which included data from both in-house collections and public sources. The total number of participants was 1157, ranging from ages 14 to 89, with a gender distribution of 607 males and 550 females. Performance evaluation was conducted within each dataset using training and testing sets. The variational quantum circuit model generally demonstrated superior performance in estimating brain age and gender classification compared to classical machine learning algorithms when using the combined dataset. Additionally, in benchmark sub-datasets, our approach exhibited better performance compared to previous studies that utilized the same dataset for brain age prediction. Thus, our results suggest that variational quantum algorithms demonstrate comparable effectiveness to classical machine learning algorithms for both brain age and gender prediction, potentially offering reduced error and improved accuracy.

Prediction of brain age in individuals with and at risk for alcohol use disorder using brain morphological features

Brain age measures predicted from structural and functional brain features are increasingly being used to understand brain integrity, disorders, and health. While there is a vast literature showing aberrations in both structural and functional brain measures in individuals with and at risk for alcohol use disorder (AUD), few studies have investigated brain age in these groups. The current study examines brain age measures predicted using brain morphological features, such as cortical thickness and brain volume, in individuals with a lifetime diagnosis of AUD as well as in those at higher risk to develop AUD from families with multiple members affected with AUD (i.e., higher family history density (FHD) scores). The AUD dataset included a group of 30 adult males (mean age = 41.25 years) with a lifetime diagnosis of AUD and currently abstinent and a group of 30 male controls (mean age = 27.24 years) without any history of AUD. A second dataset of young adults who were categorized based on their FHD scores comprised a group of 40 individuals (20 males) with high FHD of AUD (mean age = 25.33 years) and a group of 31 individuals (18 males) with low FHD (mean age = 25.47 years). Brain age was predicted using 187 brain morphological features of cortical thickness and brain volume in an XGBoost regression model; a bias-correction procedure was applied to the predicted brain age. Results showed that both AUD and high FHD individuals showed an increase of 1.70 and 0.09 years (1.08 months), respectively, in their brain age relative to their chronological age, suggesting accelerated brain aging in AUD and risk for AUD. Increased brain age was associated with poor performance on neurocognitive tests of executive functioning in both AUD and high FHD individuals, indicating that brain age can also serve as a proxy for cognitive functioning and brain health. These findings on brain aging in these groups may have important implications for the prevention and treatment of AUD and ensuing cognitive decline.

BrainAGE: Revisited and reframed machine learning workflow

Since the introduction of the BrainAGE method, novel machine learning methods for brain age prediction have continued to emerge. The idea of estimating the chronological age from magnetic resonance images proved to be an interesting field of research due to the relative simplicity of its interpretation and its potential use as a biomarker of brain health. We revised our previous BrainAGE approach, originally utilising relevance vector regression (RVR), and substituted it with Gaussian process regression (GPR), which enables more stable processing of larger datasets, such as the UK Biobank (UKB). In addition, we extended the global BrainAGE approach to regional BrainAGE, providing spatially specific scores for five brain lobes per hemisphere. We tested the performance of the new algorithms under several different conditions and investigated their validity on the ADNI and schizophrenia samples, as well as on a synthetic dataset of neocortical thinning. The results show an improved performance of the reframed global model on the UKB sample with a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 2 years and a significant difference in BrainAGE between healthy participants and patients with Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia. Moreover, the workings of the algorithm show meaningful effects for a simulated neocortical atrophy dataset. The regional BrainAGE model performed well on two clinical samples, showing disease-specific patterns for different levels of impairment. The results demonstrate that the new improved algorithms provide reliable and valid brain age estimations.

Brain age prediction across the human lifespan using multimodal MRI data

Measuring differences between an individual's age and biological age with biological information from the brain have the potential to provide biomarkers of clinically relevant neurological syndromes that arise later in human life. To explore the effect of multimodal brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features on the prediction of brain age, we investigated how multimodal brain imaging data improved age prediction from more imaging features of structural or functional MRI data by using partial least squares regression (PLSR) and longevity data sets (age 6-85 years). First, we found that the age-predicted values for each of these ten features ranged from high to low: cortical thickness (R = 0.866, MAE = 7.904), all seven MRI features (R = 0.8594, MAE = 8.24), four features in structural MRI (R = 0.8591, MAE = 8.24), fALFF (R = 0.853, MAE = 8.1918), gray matter volume (R = 0.8324, MAE = 8.931), three rs-fMRI feature (R = 0.7959, MAE = 9.744), mean curvature (R = 0.7784, MAE = 10.232), ReHo (R = 0.7833, MAE = 10.122), ALFF (R = 0.7517, MAE = 10.844), and surface area (R = 0.719, MAE = 11.33). In addition, the significance of the volume and size of brain MRI data in predicting age was also studied. Second, our results suggest that all multimodal imaging features, except cortical thickness, improve brain-based age prediction. Third, we found that the left hemisphere contributed more to the age prediction, that is, the left hemisphere showed a greater weight in the age prediction than the right hemisphere. Finally, we found a nonlinear relationship between the predicted age and the amount of MRI data. Combined with multimodal and lifespan brain data, our approach provides a new perspective for chronological age prediction and contributes to a better understanding of the relationship between brain disorders and aging.

A deep learning model for brain age prediction using minimally preprocessed T1w images as input

Introduction

In the last few years, several models trying to calculate the biological brain age have been proposed based on structural magnetic resonance imaging scans (T1-weighted MRIs, T1w) using multivariate methods and machine learning. We developed and validated a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based biological brain age prediction model that uses one T1w MRI preprocessing step when applying the model to external datasets to simplify implementation and increase accessibility in research settings. Our model only requires rigid image registration to the MNI space, which is an advantage compared to previous methods that require more preprocessing steps, such as feature extraction.

Methods

We used a multicohort dataset of cognitively healthy individuals (age range = 32.0-95.7 years) comprising 17,296 MRIs for training and evaluation. We compared our model using hold-out (CNN1) and cross-validation (CNN2-4) approaches. To verify generalisability, we used two external datasets with different populations and MRI scan characteristics to evaluate the model. To demonstrate its usability, we included the external dataset's images in the cross-validation training (CNN3). To ensure that our model used only the brain signal on the image, we also predicted brain age using skull-stripped images (CNN4).

Results

The trained models achieved a mean absolute error of 2.99, 2.67, 2.67, and 3.08 years for CNN1-4, respectively. The model's performance in the external dataset was in the typical range of mean absolute error (MAE) found in the literature for testing sets. Adding the external dataset to the training set (CNN3), overall, MAE is unaffected, but individual cohort MAE improves (5.63-2.25 years). Salience maps of predictions reveal that periventricular, temporal, and insular regions are the most important for age prediction.

Discussion

We provide indicators for using biological (predicted) brain age as a metric for age correction in neuroimaging studies as an alternative to the traditional chronological age. In conclusion, using different approaches, our CNN-based model showed good performance using one T1w brain MRI preprocessing step. The proposed CNN model is made publicly available for the research community to be easily implemented and used to study ageing and age-related disorders.

Ordinal Classification with Distance Regularization for Robust Brain Age Prediction

Age is one of the major known risk factors for Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Detecting AD early is crucial for effective treatment and preventing irreversible brain damage. Brain age, a measure derived from brain imaging reflecting structural changes due to aging, may have the potential to identify AD onset, assess disease risk, and plan targeted interventions. Deep learning-based regression techniques to predict brain age from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans have shown great accuracy recently. However, these methods are subject to an inherent regression to the mean effect, which causes a systematic bias resulting in an overestimation of brain age in young subjects and underestimation in old subjects. This weakens the reliability of predicted brain age as a valid biomarker for downstream clinical applications. Here, we reformulate the brain age prediction task from regression to classification to address the issue of systematic bias. Recognizing the importance of preserving ordinal information from ages to understand aging trajectory and monitor aging longitudinally, we propose a novel ORdinal Distance Encoded Regularization (ORDER) loss that incorporates the order of age labels, enhancing the model's ability to capture age-related patterns. Extensive experiments and ablation studies demonstrate that this framework reduces systematic bias, outperforms state-of-art methods by statistically significant margins, and can better capture subtle differences between clinical groups in an independent AD dataset. Our implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/jaygshah/Robust-Brain-Age-Prediction.

BASE: Brain Age Standardized Evaluation

Brain age, most commonly inferred from T1-weighted magnetic resonance images (T1w MRI), is a robust biomarker of brain health and related diseases. Superior accuracy in brain age prediction, often falling within a 2-3 year range, is achieved predominantly through deep neural networks. However, comparing study results is difficult due to differences in datasets, evaluation methodologies and metrics. Addressing this, we introduce Brain Age Standardized Evaluation (BASE), which includes (i) a standardized T1w MRI dataset including multi-site, new unseen site, test-retest and longitudinal data, and an associated (ii) evaluation protocol, including repeated model training and upon based comprehensive set of performance metrics measuring accuracy, robustness, reproducibility and consistency aspects of brain age predictions, and (iii) statistical evaluation framework based on linear mixed-effects models for rigorous performance assessment and cross-comparison. To showcase BASE, we comprehensively evaluate four deep learning based brain age models, appraising their performance in scenarios that utilize multi-site, test-retest, unseen site, and longitudinal T1w brain MRI datasets. Ensuring full reproducibility and application in future studies, we have made all associated data information and code publicly accessible at https://github.com/AralRalud/BASE.git.

Brain age prediction using combined deep convolutional neural network and multi-layer perceptron algorithms

The clinical applications of brain age prediction have expanded, particularly in anticipating the onset and prognosis of various neurodegenerative diseases. In the current study, we proposed a deep learning algorithm that leverages brain structural imaging data and enhances prediction accuracy by integrating biological sex information. Our model for brain age prediction, built on deep neural networks, employed a dataset of 3004 healthy subjects aged 18 and above. The T1-weighted images were minimally preprocessed and analyzed using the convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm. The categorical sex information was then incorporated using the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) algorithm. We trained and validated both a CNN-only algorithm (utilizing only brain structural imaging data), and a combined CNN-MLP algorithm (using both structural brain imaging data and sex information) for age prediction. By integrating sex information with T1-weighted imaging data, our proposed CNN-MLP algorithm outperformed not only the CNN-only algorithm but also established algorithms, such as brainageR, in prediction accuracy. Notably, this hybrid CNN-MLP algorithm effectively distinguished between mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease groups by identifying variances in brain age gaps between them, highlighting the algorithm's potential for clinical application. Overall, these results underscore the enhanced precision of the CNN-MLP algorithm in brain age prediction, achieved through the integration of sex information.

Predicting narcissistic personality traits from brain and psychological features: A supervised machine learning approach

Narcissism is a multifaceted construct often linked to pathological conditions whose neural correlates are still poorly understood. Previous studies have reported inconsistent findings related to the neural underpinnings of narcissism, probably due to methodological limitations such as the low number of participants or the use of mass univariate methods. The present study aimed to overcome the previous methodological limitations and to build a predictive model of narcissistic traits based on neural and psychological features. In this respect, two machine learning-based methods (Kernel Ridge Regression and Support Vector Regression) were used to predict narcissistic traits from brain structural organization and from other relevant normal and abnormal personality features. Results showed that a circuit including the lateral and middle frontal gyri, the angular gyrus, Rolandic operculum, and Heschl's gyrus successfully predicted narcissistic personality traits (p < 0.003). Moreover, narcissistic traits were predicted by normal (openness, agreeableness, conscientiousness) and abnormal (borderline, antisocial, insecure, addicted, negativistic, machiavellianism) personality traits. This study is the first to predict narcissistic personality traits via a supervised machine learning approach. As such, these results may expand the possibility of deriving personality traits from neural and psychological features.

Prediction of brain age using structural magnetic resonance imaging: A comparison of accuracy and test-retest reliability of publicly available software packages

Brain age prediction algorithms using structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) aim to assess the biological age of the human brain. The difference between a person's chronological age and the estimated brain age is thought to reflect deviations from a normal aging trajectory, indicating a slower or accelerated biological aging process. Several pre-trained software packages for predicting brain age are publicly available. In this study, we perform a comparison of such packages with respect to (1) predictive accuracy, (2) test-retest reliability, and (3) the ability to track age progression over time. We evaluated the six brain age prediction packages: brainageR, DeepBrainNet, brainage, ENIGMA, pyment, and mccqrnn. The accuracy and test-retest reliability were assessed on MRI data from 372 healthy people aged between 18.4 and 86.2 years (mean 38.7 ± 17.5 years). All packages showed significant correlations between predicted brain age and chronological age (r = 0.66-0.97, p < 0.001), with pyment displaying the strongest correlation. The mean absolute error was between 3.56 (pyment) and 9.54 years (ENIGMA). brainageR, pyment, and mccqrnn were superior in terms of reliability (ICC values between 0.94-0.98), as well as predicting age progression over a longer time span. Of the six packages, pyment and brainageR consistently showed the highest accuracy and test-retest reliability.

Explainable Brain Age Prediction using coVariance Neural Networks

In computational neuroscience, there has been an increased interest in developing machine learning algorithms that leverage brain imaging data to provide estimates of "brain age" for an individual. Importantly, the discordance between brain age and chronological age (referred to as "brain age gap") can capture accelerated aging due to adverse health conditions and therefore, can reflect increased vulnerability towards neurological disease or cognitive impairments. However, widespread adoption of brain age for clinical decision support has been hindered due to lack of transparency and methodological justifications in most existing brain age prediction algorithms. In this paper, we leverage coVariance neural networks (VNN) to propose an explanation-driven and anatomically interpretable framework for brain age prediction using cortical thickness features. Specifically, our brain age prediction framework extends beyond the coarse metric of brain age gap in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and we make two important observations: (i) VNNs can assign anatomical interpretability to elevated brain age gap in AD by identifying contributing brain regions, (ii) the interpretability offered by VNNs is contingent on their ability to exploit specific eigenvectors of the anatomical covariance matrix. Together, these observations facilitate an explainable and anatomically interpretable perspective to the task of brain age prediction.

Differential effects of generalized anxiety and separation anxiety on brain structural development during adolescence

Excessive anxiety is highly prevalent during childhood and adolescence, with detrimental effects on somatic and mental health, and quality of life. Although structural abnormalities in the brain have been found in people with anxiety disorders, whether anxiety affects the brain development of children and adolescents remains unknown. Here, we applied a multivariate approach to two single-site MRI datasets consisting of 733 and 775 participants aged 5-18 years. Using linear support vector regression and cross-validation, brain age is estimated by predicting the chronological age from the features that combine cortical thickness and surface area of 68 brain regions. We found that gray matter can predict the chronological age of children and adolescents with a low mean absolute error. Compared to specific brain network, the whole structural brain measures predicted brain age better. Importantly, adolescents with higher generalized anxiety and those with lower separation anxiety showed lower brain age, indicating a slow development of brain structures. The relationship between anxiety and brain age of youths could also be found in parent-reported separation anxiety. The findings highlight differential effects of different anxiety types on brain structural development and suggest that different types of anxiety during childhood and adolescence should be treated differently.

Advanced brain age in community-dwelling population with combined physical and cognitive impairments

We investigated whether advanced brain biological age is associated with accelerated age-related physical and/or cognitive functional decline: mobility impairment no disability (MIND), cognitive impairment no dementia (CIND), and physio-cognitive decline syndrome (PCDS). We constructed a brain age prediction model using gray matter features from the magnetic resonance imaging of 1482 healthy individuals (aged 18-92 years). Predicted and chronological age differences were obtained (brain age gap [BAG]) and analyzed in another 1193 community-dwelling population aged ≥50 years. Among the 1193 participants, there were 501, 346, 148, and 198 in the robust, CIND, MIND, and PCDS groups, respectively. Participants with PCDS had significantly larger BAG (BAG = 2.99 ± 8.97) than the robust (BAG = -0.49 ± 9.27, p = 0.002; η2 = 0.014), CIND (BAG = 0.47 ± 9.16, p = 0.02; η2 = 0.01), and MIND (BAG = 0.36 ± 9.69, p = 0.036; η2 = 0.013) groups. Advanced brain aging is involved in the pathophysiology of the co-occurrence of physical and cognitive decline in the older people. The PCDS may be a clinical phenotype reflective of accelerated biological age in community-dwelling older individuals.

Predicting 'Brainage' in late childhood to adolescence (6-17yrs) using structural MRI, morphometric similarity, and machine learning

Brain development is regularly studied using structural MRI. Recently, studies have used a combination of statistical learning and large-scale imaging databases of healthy children to predict an individual's age from structural MRI. This data-driven, predicted 'Brainage' typically differs from the subjects chronological age, with this difference a potential measure of individual difference. Few studies have leveraged higher-order or connectomic representations of structural MRI data for this Brainage approach. We leveraged morphometric similarity as a network-level approach to structural MRI to generate predictive models of age. We benchmarked these novel Brainage approaches using morphometric similarity against more typical, single feature (i.e., cortical thickness) approaches. We showed that these novel methods did not outperform cortical thickness or cortical volume measures. All models were significantly biased by age, but robust to motion confounds. The main results show that, whilst morphometric similarity mapping may be a novel way to leverage additional information from a T1-weighted structural MRI beyond individual features, in the context of a Brainage framework, morphometric similarity does not provide more accurate predictions of age. Morphometric similarity as a network-level approach to structural MRI may be poorly positioned to study individual differences in brain development in healthy participants in this way.

Significant Acceleration of Regional Brain Aging and Atrophy After Mild Traumatic Brain Injury

Brain regions' rates of age-related volumetric change after traumatic brain injury (TBI) are unknown. Here, we quantify these rates cross-sectionally in 113 persons with recent mild TBI (mTBI), whom we compare against 3 418 healthy controls (HCs). Regional gray matter (GM) volumes were extracted from magnetic resonance images. Linear regression yielded regional brain ages and the annualized average rates of regional GM volume loss. These results were compared across groups after accounting for sex and intracranial volume. In HCs, the steepest rates of volume loss were recorded in the nucleus accumbens, amygdala, and lateral orbital sulcus. In mTBI, approximately 80% of GM structures had significantly steeper rates of annual volume loss than in HCs. The largest group differences involved the short gyri of the insula and both the long gyrus and central sulcus of the insula. No significant sex differences were found in the mTBI group, regional brain ages being the oldest in prefrontal and temporal structures. Thus, mTBI involves significantly steeper regional GM loss rates than in HCs, reflecting older-than-expected regional brain ages.

Personalized estimates of brain cortical structural variability in individuals with Autism spectrum disorder: the predictor of brain age and neurobiology relevance

BACKGROUND

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a heritable condition related to brain development that affects a person's perception and socialization with others. Here, we examined variability in the brain morphology in ASD children and adolescent individuals at the level of brain cortical structural profiles and the level of each brain regional measure.

METHODS

We selected brain structural MRI data in 600 ASDs and 729 normal controls (NCs) from Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE). The personalized estimate of similarity between gray matter volume (GMV) profiles of an individual to that of others in the same group was assessed by using the person-based similarity index (PBSI). Regional contributions to PBSI score were utilized for brain age gap estimation (BrainAGE) prediction model establishment, including support vector regression (SVR), relevance vector regression (RVR), and Gaussian process regression (GPR). The association between BrainAGE prediction in ASD and clinical performance was investigated. We further explored the related inter-regional profiles of gene expression from the Allen Human Brain Atlas with variability differences in the brain morphology between groups.

RESULTS

The PBSI score of GMV was negatively related to age regardless of the sample group, and the PBSI score was significantly lower in ASDs than in NCs. The regional contributions to the PBSI score of 126 brain regions in ASDs showed significant differences compared to NCs. RVR model achieved the best performance for predicting brain age. Higher inter-individual brain morphology variability was related to increased brain age, specific to communication symptoms. A total of 430 genes belonging to various pathways were identified as associated with brain cortical morphometric variation. The pathways, including short-term memory, regulation of system process, and regulation of nervous system process, were dominated mainly by gene sets for manno midbrain neurotypes.

LIMITATIONS

There is a sample mismatch between the gene expression data and brain imaging data from ABIDE. A larger sample size can contribute to the model training of BrainAGE and the validation of the results.

CONCLUSIONS

ASD has personalized heterogeneity brain morphology. The brain age gap estimation and transcription-neuroimaging associations derived from this trait are replenished in an additional direction to boost the understanding of the ASD brain.

Regional Neuroanatomic Effects on Brain Age Inferred Using Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Ridge Regression

The biological age of the brain differs from its chronological age (CA) and can be used as biomarker of neural/cognitive disease processes and as predictor of mortality. Brain age (BA) is often estimated from magnetic resonance images (MRIs) using machine learning (ML) that rarely indicates how regional brain features contribute to BA. Leveraging an aggregate training sample of 3 418 healthy controls (HCs), we describe a ridge regression model that quantifies each region's contribution to BA. After model testing on an independent sample of 651 HCs, we compute the coefficient of partial determination R¯p2 for each regional brain volume to quantify its contribution to BA. Model performance is also evaluated using the correlation r between chronological and biological ages, the mean absolute error (MAE ) and mean squared error (MSE) of BA estimates. On training data, r=0.92, MSE=70.94 years, MAE=6.57 years, and R¯2=0.81; on test data, r=0.90, MSE=81.96 years, MAE=7.00 years, and R¯2=0.79. The regions whose volumes contribute most to BA are the nucleus accumbens (R¯p2=7.27%), inferior temporal gyrus (R¯p2=4.03%), thalamus (R¯p2=3.61%), brainstem (R¯p2=3.29%), posterior lateral sulcus (R¯p2=3.22%), caudate nucleus (R¯p2=3.05%), orbital gyrus (R¯p2=2.96%), and precentral gyrus (R¯p2=2.80%). Our ridge regression, although outperformed by the most sophisticated ML approaches, identifies the importance and relative contribution of each brain structure to overall BA. Aside from its interpretability and quasi-mechanistic insights, our model can be used to validate future ML approaches for BA estimation.

Fine temporal brain network structure modularizes and localizes differently in men and women: insights from a novel explainability framework

Deep learning has become an effective tool for classifying biological sex based on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). However, research on what features within the brain are most relevant to this classification is still lacking. Model interpretability has become a powerful way to understand "black box" deep-learning models, and select features within the input data that are most relevant to the correct classification. However, very little work has been done employing these methods to understand the relationship between the temporal dimension of functional imaging signals and the classification of biological sex. Consequently, less attention has been paid to rectifying problems and limitations associated with feature explanation models, e.g. underspecification and instability. In this work, we first provide a methodology to limit the impact of underspecification on the stability of the measured feature importance. Then, using intrinsic connectivity networks from fMRI data, we provide a deep exploration of sex differences among functional brain networks. We report numerous conclusions, including activity differences in the visual and cognitive domains and major connectivity differences.

Brain-age prediction: A systematic comparison of machine learning workflows

The difference between age predicted using anatomical brain scans and chronological age, i.e., the brain-age delta, provides a proxy for atypical aging. Various data representations and machine learning (ML) algorithms have been used for brain-age estimation. However, how these choices compare on performance criteria important for real-world applications, such as; (1) within-dataset accuracy, (2) cross-dataset generalization, (3) test-retest reliability, and (4) longitudinal consistency, remains uncharacterized. We evaluated 128 workflows consisting of 16 feature representations derived from gray matter (GM) images and eight ML algorithms with diverse inductive biases. Using four large neuroimaging databases covering the adult lifespan (total N = 2953, 18-88 years), we followed a systematic model selection procedure by sequentially applying stringent criteria. The 128 workflows showed a within-dataset mean absolute error (MAE) between 4.73-8.38 years, from which 32 broadly sampled workflows showed a cross-dataset MAE between 5.23-8.98 years. The test-retest reliability and longitudinal consistency of the top 10 workflows were comparable. The choice of feature representation and the ML algorithm both affected the performance. Specifically, voxel-wise feature spaces (smoothed and resampled), with and without principal components analysis, with non-linear and kernel-based ML algorithms performed well. Strikingly, the correlation of brain-age delta with behavioral measures disagreed between within-dataset and cross-dataset predictions. Application of the best-performing workflow on the ADNI sample showed a significantly higher brain-age delta in Alzheimer's and mild cognitive impairment patients compared to healthy controls. However, in the presence of age bias, the delta estimates in the patients varied depending on the sample used for bias correction. Taken together, brain-age shows promise, but further evaluation and improvements are needed for its real-world application.

Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Brain Age Prediction Using Six Imaging Modalities on Middle-Aged and Older Adults

Machine learning (ML) has transformed neuroimaging research by enabling accurate predictions and feature extraction from large datasets. In this study, we investigate the application of six ML algorithms (Lasso, relevance vector regression, support vector regression, extreme gradient boosting, category boost, and multilayer perceptron) to predict brain age for middle-aged and older adults, which is a crucial area of research in neuroimaging. Despite the plethora of proposed ML models, there is no clear consensus on how to achieve better performance in brain age prediction for this population. Our study stands out by evaluating the impact of both ML algorithms and image modalities on brain age prediction performance using a large cohort of cognitively normal adults aged 44.6 to 82.3 years old (N = 27,842) with six image modalities. We found that the predictive performance of brain age is more reliant on the image modalities used than the ML algorithms employed. Specifically, our study highlights the superior performance of T1-weighted MRI and diffusion-weighted imaging and demonstrates that multi-modality-based brain age prediction significantly enhances performance compared to unimodality. Moreover, we identified Lasso as the most accurate ML algorithm for predicting brain age, achieving the lowest mean absolute error in both single-modality and multi-modality predictions. Additionally, Lasso also ranked highest in a comprehensive evaluation of the relationship between BrainAGE and the five frequently mentioned BrainAGE-related factors. Notably, our study also shows that ensemble learning outperforms Lasso when computational efficiency is not a concern. Overall, our study provides valuable insights into the development of accurate and reliable brain age prediction models for middle-aged and older adults, with significant implications for clinical practice and neuroimaging research. Our findings highlight the importance of image modality selection and emphasize Lasso as a promising ML algorithm for brain age prediction.

Brain ageing in schizophrenia: evidence from 26 international cohorts via the ENIGMA Schizophrenia consortium

Schizophrenia (SZ) is associated with an increased risk of life-long cognitive impairments, age-related chronic disease, and premature mortality. We investigated evidence for advanced brain ageing in adult SZ patients, and whether this was associated with clinical characteristics in a prospective meta-analytic study conducted by the ENIGMA Schizophrenia Working Group. The study included data from 26 cohorts worldwide, with a total of 2803 SZ patients (mean age 34.2 years; range 18-72 years; 67% male) and 2598 healthy controls (mean age 33.8 years, range 18-73 years, 55% male). Brain-predicted age was individually estimated using a model trained on independent data based on 68 measures of cortical thickness and surface area, 7 subcortical volumes, lateral ventricular volumes and total intracranial volume, all derived from T1-weighted brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. Deviations from a healthy brain ageing trajectory were assessed by the difference between brain-predicted age and chronological age (brain-predicted age difference [brain-PAD]). On average, SZ patients showed a higher brain-PAD of +3.55 years (95% CI: 2.91, 4.19; I2 = 57.53%) compared to controls, after adjusting for age, sex and site (Cohen's d = 0.48). Among SZ patients, brain-PAD was not associated with specific clinical characteristics (age of onset, duration of illness, symptom severity, or antipsychotic use and dose). This large-scale collaborative study suggests advanced structural brain ageing in SZ. Longitudinal studies of SZ and a range of mental and somatic health outcomes will help to further evaluate the clinical implications of increased brain-PAD and its ability to be influenced by interventions.

Predicting 'Brainage' in the Developmental Period using Structural MRI, Morphometric Similarity, and Machine Learning

Brain development is regularly studied using structural MRI. Recently, studies have used a combination of statistical learning and large-scale imaging databases of healthy-children to predict an individual's age from structural MRI. This data-driven, 'brainage' typically differs from the subjects chronological age, with this difference a potential measure of individual difference. Few studies have leveraged higher-order or connectomic representations of structural MRI data for this brainage approach. We leveraged morphometric similarity as a network-level approach to structural MRI to generate predictive models of age. We benchmarked these novel brain-age approaches using morphometric similarity against more typical, single feature (i.e. cortical thickness) approaches. We showed that these novel methods did not outperform cortical thickness or cortical volume measures. All models were significantly biased by age, but robust to motion confounds. The main results show that, whilst morphometric similarity mapping may be a novel way to leverage additional information from a T1-weighted structural MRI beyond individual features, in the context of a brain-age framework, morphometric similarity does not explain more variance than individual structural features. Morphometric similarity as a network-level approach to structural MRI may be poorly positioned to study individual differences in brain development in healthy individuals.

Systematic evaluation of machine learning algorithms for neuroanatomically-based age prediction in youth

Application of machine learning (ML) algorithms to structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data has yielded behaviorally meaningful estimates of the biological age of the brain (brain-age). The choice of the ML approach in estimating brain-age in youth is important because age-related brain changes in this age-group are dynamic. However, the comparative performance of the available ML algorithms has not been systematically appraised. To address this gap, the present study evaluated the accuracy (mean absolute error [MAE]) and computational efficiency of 21 machine learning algorithms using sMRI data from 2105 typically developing individuals aged 5-22 years from five cohorts. The trained models were then tested in two independent holdout datasets, one comprising 4078 individuals aged 9-10 years and another comprising 594 individuals aged 5-21 years. The algorithms encompassed parametric and nonparametric, Bayesian, linear and nonlinear, tree-based, and kernel-based models. Sensitivity analyses were performed for parcellation scheme, number of neuroimaging input features, number of cross-validation folds, number of extreme outliers, and sample size. Tree-based models and algorithms with a nonlinear kernel performed comparably well, with the latter being especially computationally efficient. Extreme Gradient Boosting (MAE of 1.49 years), Random Forest Regression (MAE of 1.58 years), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) with Radial Basis Function (RBF) Kernel (MAE of 1.64 years) emerged as the three most accurate models. Linear algorithms, with the exception of Elastic Net Regression, performed poorly. Findings of the present study could be used as a guide for optimizing methodology when quantifying brain-age in youth.

Combining MRI and clinical data to detect high relapse risk after the first episode of psychosis

Detecting patients at high relapse risk after the first episode of psychosis (HRR-FEP) could help the clinician adjust the preventive treatment. To develop a tool to detect patients at HRR using their baseline clinical and structural MRI, we followed 227 patients with FEP for 18–24 months and applied MRIPredict. We previously optimized the MRI-based machine-learning parameters (combining unmodulated and modulated gray and white matter and using voxel-based ensemble) in two independent datasets. Patients estimated to be at HRR-FEP showed a substantially increased risk of relapse (hazard ratio = 4.58, P < 0.05). Accuracy was poorer when we only used clinical or MRI data. We thus show the potential of combining clinical and MRI data to detect which individuals are more likely to relapse, who may benefit from increased frequency of visits, and which are unlikely, who may be currently receiving unnecessary prophylactic treatments. We also provide an updated version of the MRIPredict software.

Multidimensional brain-age prediction reveals altered brain developmental trajectory in psychiatric disorders

Brain-age prediction has emerged as a novel approach for studying brain development. However, brain regions change in different ways and at different rates. Unitary brain-age indices represent developmental status averaged across the whole brain and therefore do not capture the divergent developmental trajectories of various brain structures. This staggered developmental unfolding, determined by genetics and postnatal experience, is implicated in the progression of psychiatric and neurological disorders. We propose a multidimensional brain-age index (MBAI) that provides regional age predictions. Using a database of 556 individuals, we identified clusters of imaging features with distinct developmental trajectories and built machine learning models to obtain brain-age predictions from each of the clusters. Our results show that the MBAI provides a flexible analysis of region-specific brain-age changes that are invisible to unidimensional brain-age. Importantly, brain-ages computed from region-specific feature clusters contain complementary information and demonstrate differential ability to distinguish disorder groups (e.g., depression and oppositional defiant disorder) from healthy controls. In summary, we show that MBAI is sensitive to alterations in brain structures and captures distinct regional change patterns that may serve as biomarkers that contribute to our understanding of healthy and pathological brain development and the characterization and diagnosis of psychiatric disorders.

Brain Age Prediction: A Comparison between Machine Learning Models Using Brain Morphometric Data

Brain structural morphology varies over the aging trajectory, and the prediction of a person's age using brain morphological features can help the detection of an abnormal aging process. Neuroimaging-based brain age is widely used to quantify an individual's brain health as deviation from a normative brain aging trajectory. Machine learning approaches are expanding the potential for accurate brain age prediction but are challenging due to the great variety of machine learning algorithms. Here, we aimed to compare the performance of the machine learning models used to estimate brain age using brain morphological measures derived from structural magnetic resonance imaging scans. We evaluated 27 machine learning models, applied to three independent datasets from the Human Connectome Project (HCP, n = 1113, age range 22-37), the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience (Cam-CAN, n = 601, age range 18-88), and the Information eXtraction from Images (IXI, n = 567, age range 19-86). Performance was assessed within each sample using cross-validation and an unseen test set. The models achieved mean absolute errors of 2.75-3.12, 7.08-10.50, and 8.04-9.86 years, as well as Pearson's correlation coefficients of 0.11-0.42, 0.64-0.85, and 0.63-0.79 between predicted brain age and chronological age for the HCP, Cam-CAN, and IXI samples, respectively. We found a substantial difference in performance between models trained on the same data type, indicating that the choice of model yields considerable variation in brain-predicted age. Furthermore, in three datasets, regularized linear regression algorithms achieved similar performance to nonlinear and ensemble algorithms. Our results suggest that regularized linear algorithms are as effective as nonlinear and ensemble algorithms for brain age prediction, while significantly reducing computational costs. Our findings can serve as a starting point and quantitative reference for future efforts at improving brain age prediction using machine learning models applied to brain morphometric data.

Potential of brain age in identifying early cognitive impairment in subcortical small-vessel disease patients

Background

Reliable and individualized biomarkers are crucial for identifying early cognitive impairment in subcortical small-vessel disease (SSVD) patients. Personalized brain age prediction can effectively reflect cognitive impairment. Thus, the present study aimed to investigate the association of brain age with cognitive function in SSVD patients and assess the potential value of brain age in clinical assessment of SSVD.

Materials and methods

A prediction model for brain age using the relevance vector regression algorithm was developed using 35 healthy controls. Subsequently, the prediction model was tested using 51 SSVD patients [24 subjective cognitive impairment (SCI) patients and 27 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients] to identify brain age-related imaging features. A support vector machine (SVM)-based classification model was constructed to differentiate MCI from SCI patients. The neurobiological basis of brain age-related imaging features was also investigated based on cognitive assessments and oxidative stress biomarkers.

Results

The gray matter volume (GMV) imaging features accurately predicted brain age in individual patients with SSVD (R² = 0.535, p < 0.001). The GMV features were primarily distributed across the subcortical system (e.g., thalamus) and dorsal attention network. SSVD patients with age acceleration showed significantly poorer Mini-Mental State Examination and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scores. The classification model based on GMV features could accurately distinguish MCI patients from SCI patients (area under the curve = 0.883). The classification outputs of the classification model exhibited significant associations with MoCA scores, Trail Making Tests A and B scores, Stroop Color and Word Test C scores, information processing speed total scores, and plasma levels of total antioxidant capacity in SSVD patients.

Conclusion

Brain age can be accurately quantified using GMV imaging data and shows potential clinical value for identifying early cognitive impairment in SSVD patients.

Brain-age is associated with progression to dementia in memory clinic patients

BACKGROUND

Biomarkers for the early detection of dementia risk hold promise for better disease monitoring and targeted interventions. However, most biomarker studies, particularly in neuroimaging, have analysed artificially 'clean' research groups, free from comorbidities, erroneous referrals, contraindications and from a narrow sociodemographic pool. Such biases mean that neuroimaging samples are often unrepresentative of the target population for dementia risk (e.g., people referred to a memory clinic), limiting the generalisation of these studies to real-world clinical settings. To facilitate better translation from research to the clinic, datasets that are more representative of dementia patient groups are warranted.

METHODS

We analysed T1-weighted MRI scans from a real-world setting of patients referred to UK memory clinic services (n = 1140; 60.2 % female and mean [SD] age of 70.0[10.8] years) to derive 'brain-age'. Brain-age is an index of age-related brain health based on quantitative analysis of structural neuroimaging, largely reflecting brain atrophy. Brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD) was calculated as brain-age minus chronological age. We determined which patients went on to develop dementia between three months and 7.8 years after neuroimaging assessment (n = 476) using linkage to electronic health records.

RESULTS

Survival analysis, using Cox regression, indicated a 3 % increased risk of dementia per brain-PAD year (hazard ratio [95 % CI] = 1.03 [1.02,1.04], p < 0.0001), adjusted for baseline age, age2, sex, Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score and normalised brain volume. In sensitivity analyses, brain-PAD remained significant when time-to-dementia was at least 3 years (hazard ratio [95 % CI] = 1.06 [1.02, 1.09], p = 0.0006), or when baseline MMSE score ≥ 27 (hazard ratio [95 % CI] = 1.03 [1.01, 1.05], p = 0.0006).

CONCLUSIONS

Memory clinic patients with older-appearing brains are more likely to receive a subsequent dementia diagnosis. Potentially, brain-age could aid decision-making during initial memory clinic assessment to improve early detection of dementia. Even when neuroimaging assessment was more than 3 years prior to diagnosis and when cognitive functioning was not clearly impaired, brain-age still proved informative. These real-world results support the use of quantitative neuroimaging biomarkers like brain-age in memory clinics.

Mind the gap: Performance metric evaluation in brain-age prediction

Estimating age based on neuroimaging-derived data has become a popular approach to developing markers for brain integrity and health. While a variety of machine-learning algorithms can provide accurate predictions of age based on brain characteristics, there is significant variation in model accuracy reported across studies. We predicted age in two population-based datasets, and assessed the effects of age range, sample size and age-bias correction on the model performance metrics Pearson's correlation coefficient (r), the coefficient of determination (R2 ), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results showed that these metrics vary considerably depending on cohort age range; r and R2 values are lower when measured in samples with a narrower age range. RMSE and MAE are also lower in samples with a narrower age range due to smaller errors/brain age delta values when predictions are closer to the mean age of the group. Across subsets with different age ranges, performance metrics improve with increasing sample size. Performance metrics further vary depending on prediction variance as well as mean age difference between training and test sets, and age-bias corrected metrics indicate high accuracy-also for models showing poor initial performance. In conclusion, performance metrics used for evaluating age prediction models depend on cohort and study-specific data characteristics, and cannot be directly compared across different studies. Since age-bias corrected metrics generally indicate high accuracy, even for poorly performing models, inspection of uncorrected model results provides important information about underlying model attributes such as prediction variance.

Disentangling Alzheimer's disease neurodegeneration from typical brain ageing using machine learning

Neuroimaging biomarkers that distinguish between changes due to typical brain ageing and Alzheimer's disease are valuable for determining how much each contributes to cognitive decline. Supervised machine learning models can derive multivariate patterns of brain change related to the two processes, including the Spatial Patterns of Atrophy for Recognition of Alzheimer's Disease (SPARE-AD) and of Brain Aging (SPARE-BA) scores investigated herein. However, the substantial overlap between brain regions affected in the two processes confounds measuring them independently. We present a methodology, and associated results, towards disentangling the two. T1-weighted MRI scans of 4054 participants (48-95 years) with Alzheimer's disease, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or cognitively normal (CN) diagnoses from the Imaging-based coordinate SysTem for AGIng and NeurodeGenerative diseases (iSTAGING) consortium were analysed. Multiple sets of SPARE scores were investigated, in order to probe imaging signatures of certain clinically or molecularly defined sub-cohorts. First, a subset of clinical Alzheimer's disease patients (n = 718) and age- and sex-matched CN adults (n = 718) were selected based purely on clinical diagnoses to train SPARE-BA1 (regression of age using CN individuals) and SPARE-AD1 (classification of CN versus Alzheimer's disease) models. Second, analogous groups were selected based on clinical and molecular markers to train SPARE-BA2 and SPARE-AD2 models: amyloid-positive Alzheimer's disease continuum group (n = 718; consisting of amyloid-positive Alzheimer's disease, amyloid-positive MCI, amyloid- and tau-positive CN individuals) and amyloid-negative CN group (n = 718). Finally, the combined group of the Alzheimer's disease continuum and amyloid-negative CN individuals was used to train SPARE-BA3 model, with the intention to estimate brain age regardless of Alzheimer's disease-related brain changes. The disentangled SPARE models, SPARE-AD2 and SPARE-BA3, derived brain patterns that were more specific to the two types of brain changes. The correlation between the SPARE-BA Gap (SPARE-BA minus chronological age) and SPARE-AD was significantly reduced after the decoupling (r = 0.56-0.06). The correlation of disentangled SPARE-AD was non-inferior to amyloid- and tau-related measurements and to the number of APOE ε4 alleles but was lower to Alzheimer's disease-related psychometric test scores, suggesting the contribution of advanced brain ageing to the latter. The disentangled SPARE-BA was consistently less correlated with Alzheimer's disease-related clinical, molecular and genetic variables. By employing conservative molecular diagnoses and introducing Alzheimer's disease continuum cases to the SPARE-BA model training, we achieved more dissociable neuroanatomical biomarkers of typical brain ageing and Alzheimer's disease.

Brain age estimation using multi-feature-based networks

Studying brain aging improves our understanding in differentiating typical and atypical aging. Directly utilizing traditional morphological features for brain age estimation did not show significant performance in healthy controls (HCs), which may be due to the negligence of the information of structural similarities among cortical regions. For this issue, the multi-feature-based network (MFN) built upon morphological features can be employed to describe these similarities. Based on this, we hypothesized that the MFN is more efficient and robust than traditional morphological features in brain age estimating. In this work, we used six different types of morphological features (i.e., cortical volume, cortical thickness, curvature index, folding index, local gyrification index, and surface area) to build individual MFN for brain age estimation. The efficacy of MFN was estimated on 2501 HCs with T1-weighted structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data and compared with traditional morphological features. We attained a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.73 years using the proposed method on an independent test set, whereas a mean absolute error of 5.30 years was derived from morphological features. Our experimental results demonstrated that the MFN is an efficient and robust metric for estimating brain age.

Associations between smoking and accelerated brain ageing

Smoking accelerates the ageing of multiple organs. However, few studies have quantified the association between smoking, especially smoking cessation, and brain ageing. Using structural magnetic resonance imaging data from the UK Biobank (n = 33,293), a brain age predictor was trained using a machine learning technique in the non-smoker group (n = 14,667) and then tested in the smoker group (n = 18,626) to determine the relationships between BrainAge Gap (predicted age - true age) and smoking parameters. Further, we examined whether smoking was associated with poorer cognition and whether this relationship was mediated by brain age. The predictor achieved an appreciable performance in training data (r = 0.712, mean-absolute-error [MAE] = 4.220) and test data (r = 0.725, MAE = 4.160). On average, smokers showed a larger BrainAge Gap (+0.304 years, Cohens'd = 0.083) than controls, more explicitly, the extents vary depending on their smoking characteristic that active regular smokers had the largest BrainAge Gap (+1.190 years, Cohens'd = 0.321), and light smokers had a moderate BrainAge Gap (+0.478, Cohens'd = 0.129). The increased smoking amount was associated with a larger BrainAge Gap (β = 0.035, p = 1.72 × 10^-20) while a longer duration of quitting smoking in ex-smokers was associated with a smaller BrainAge Gap (β = -0.015, p = 2.14 × 10^-05). Furthermore, smoking was associated with poorer cognition, and this relationship was partially mediated by BrainAge Gap. The study provides insight into the association between smoking, brain ageing, and cognition, which provide more publicly acceptable propaganda against smoking.

MRI-derived brain age as a biomarker of ageing in rats: validation using a healthy lifestyle intervention

The difference between brain age predicted from MRI and chronological age (the so-called BrainAGE) has been proposed as an ageing biomarker. We analyse its cross-species potential by testing it on rats undergoing an ageing modulation intervention. Our rat brain age prediction model combined Gaussian process regression with a classifier and achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.87 weeks using cross-validation on a longitudinal dataset of 31 normal ageing rats. It was then tested on two groups of 24 rats (MAE = 9.89 weeks, correlation coefficient = 0.86): controls vs. a group under long-term environmental enrichment and dietary restriction (EEDR). Using a linear mixed-effects model, BrainAGE was found to increase more slowly with chronological age in EEDR rats (p=0.015 for the interaction term). Cox regression showed that older BrainAGE at 5 months was associated with higher mortality risk (p=0.03). Our findings suggest that lifestyle-related prevention approaches may help to slow down brain ageing in rodents and the potential of BrainAGE as a predictor of age-related health outcomes.