External validation of the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter cohort study

Prognostic Role of Basal Serum Alpha-Fetoprotein in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Suitable for Curative Treatment

Background and Objectives: Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a recognized affordable oncological marker in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, AFP's prognostic role has been assessed mainly after specific treatments, and no unanimously recognized cut-offs have been identified. The aim of this study is to investigate the prognostic role of different basal AFP cut-offs on survival and HCC course. Materials and Methods: In this single-center, retrospective study, all patients newly diagnosed with HCC between January 2009 and December 2021 were prospectively enrolled. Only patients suitable for curative HCC treatments were included in the analyses. Patients were stratified according to AFP cut-offs of 20, 200, 400, and 1000 ng/mL, which were correlated with survival outcomes and clinical parameters. Results: A total of 266 patients were analyzed, with a median follow-up time of 41.5 months. Median overall survival (OS) of all cohort was 43 months. At the multivariate Cox-regression analysis, AFP value ≥ 1000 ng/mL correlated with impaired OS (1-year OS: 67% vs. 88%, 5-year OS: 1% vs. 43%; p = 0.005); other risk factors were tumor dimension ≥ 5 cm (HR 1.73; p = 0.002), Child-Pugh class B-C (HR 1.72; p = 0.002), BCLC stage A (vs. 0) (HR 2.4; p = 0.011), and malignant portal vein thrombosis (HR 2.57; p = 0.007). AFP ≥ 1000 ng/mL was also associated with a reduced recurrence-free survival (HR 2.0; p = 0.038), while starting from AFP ≥ 20 ng/mL, a correlation with development of HCC metastases over time (HR 3.5; p = 0.002) was seen. AFP values ≥ 20 ng/mL significantly correlated with tumor size and higher histological grading; starting from AFP values ≥ 400 ng/mL, a significant correlation with Child-Pugh class B-C and female gender was also observed. Conclusions: Basal AFP correlates with relevant outcomes in patients with HCC. It could help identify patients at a higher risk of worse prognosis who might benefit from personalized surveillance and treatment programs. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these results.

Comparison of metastasis and prognosis between early-onset and late-onset hepatocellular carcinoma: A population-based study

Background

While hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a highly heterogeneous disease with variable oncogenesis mechanisms and biological features, little is understood about differences in distant metastasis (DM) and prognosis between early-onset and late-onset HCC. This study defined early-onset disease as cancer diagnosed at age younger than 50 years and aimed to present a comprehensive analysis to characterize these disparities based on age.

Methods

Information of HCC patients was retrospectively collected from the SEER database and our hospital. Patient demographics, tumor characteristics, and survival were compared between the two groups. A 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was adopted to adjust confounding factors. Logistic and cox analysis were utilized to explore risk factors of DM and prognosis, respectively. Besides, the survival differences were assessed by the Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank test.

Results

In total, 19187 HCC patients obtained from the SEER database and 129 HCC patients obtained from our own center were enrolled. Among 19187 patients with HCC, 3376 were identified in the matched cohort, including 1688 early-onset patients and 1688 late-onset patients. Compared with late-onset HCC, early-onset HCC was more likely to occur in female (25.2% vs. 22.9%, P = 0.030), have large tumors (>10.0 cm, 24.1% vs. 14.6%, P = 0.000), harbor poorly differentiated/undifferentiated cancers (17.0% vs. 14.0%, P = 0.003), present advanced clinical stage (T3+T4, 33.7% vs. 28.5%; N1, 9.2% vs. 6.7%; P = 0.000), and develop DM (13.0% vs. 9.5%, P = 0.000). After adjustment for confounders by PSM, we discovered that early-onset HCC remained an independent risk factor for DM. However, combined with Kaplan-Meier curve and cox analysis, early-onset HCC was an independent favorable predictor of survival. We validated these data on an independent cohort from our hospital.

Conclusion

In this population-based study, despite developing DM more frequently, early-onset HCC exhibited a superior prognosis than late-onset HCC. Nevertheless, further research is warranted to understand the underlying aetiologic basis for the disparities.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma from a Hepatologist's Perspective

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most common type of primary liver cancer, represents a growing health challenge worldwide. The incidence of HCC is rising, which, in turn, has led to a corresponding increase in the associated number of deaths. HCC will become the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States by 2030. HCC usually develops in the setting of chronic liver disease. Individuals at increased risk of HCC are recommended to undergo surveillance with ultrasound every 6 months along with serum α-fetoprotein testing. Computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are considered alternatives based on specific patient factors. Lesions suspicious for HCC are recommended to undergo a diagnostic testing, which includes contrast-enhanced multiphase CT or MRI and liver biopsy when findings are indeterminate. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer prognosis and treatment strategy is the most used assessment for patients with HCC ( Fig. 2 ). Curative therapies include resection, liver transplantation, and ablation. Locoregional therapies, such as transarterial chemoembolization and radioembolization, can be used for patients with intermediate-stage HCC. For patients with advanced-stage HCC, systemic therapy is often used. This review aims to provide an overview of HCC from a hepatologist's perspective, including epidemiology, screening, surveillance, diagnosis, and management.

Prospective validation of the Eastern Staging in predicting survival after surgical resection for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter study from China

BACKGROUND

The Eastern Staging System, which was specially developed for patients undergoing surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), has been proposed for more than ten years. To prospectively validate the predictive accuracy of the Eastern staging on long-term survival after HCC resection.

METHODS

Patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC from 2011 to 2020 at 10 Chinese hospitals were identified from a prospectively collected database. The survival predictive accuracy was evaluated and compared between the Eastern Staging with six other staging systems, including the JIS, BCLC, Okuda, CLIP, 8th AJCC TNM, and HKLC staging.

RESULTS

Among 2365 patients, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 84.2%, 64.5%, and 52.6%, respectively. Among these seven staging systems, the Eastern staging was associated with the best monotonicity of gradients (linear trend χ²: 408.5) and homogeneity (likelihood ratio χ²: 447.3), and the highest discriminatory ability (the areas under curves for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality: 0.776, 0.787, and 0.768, respectively). In addition, the Eastern staging was the most informative staging system in predicting survival (Akaike information criterion: 2982.33).

CONCLUSION

Using a large multicenter prospectively collected database, the Eastern Staging was found to show the best predictive accuracy on long-term overall survival in patients with resectable HCC than the other 6 commonly-used staging systems.

Epidemiological trends and trajectories of MAFLD-associated hepatocellular carcinoma 2002-2033: the ITA.LI.CA database

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) represents a new inclusive definition of the whole spectrum of liver diseases associated to metabolic disorders. The main objective of this study was to compare patients with MAFLD and non-MAFLD with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) included in a nationally representative cohort.

METHODS

We analysed 6882 consecutive patients with HCC enrolled from 2002 to 2019 by 23 Italian Liver Cancer centres to compare epidemiological and future trends in three subgroups: pure, single aetiology MAFLD (S-MAFLD); mixed aetiology MAFLD (metabolic and others, M-MAFLD); and non-MAFLD HCC.

RESULTS

MAFLD was diagnosed in the majority of patients with HCC (68.4%). The proportion of both total MAFLD and S-MAFLD HCC significantly increased over time (from 50.4% and 3.6% in 2002-2003, to 77.3% and 28.9% in 2018-2019, respectively, p<0.001). In Italy S-MAFLD HCC is expected to overcome M-MAFLD HCC in about 6 years. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC were older, more frequently men and less frequently cirrhotic with clinically relevant portal hypertension and a surveillance-related diagnosis. They had more frequently large tumours and extrahepatic metastases. After weighting, and compared with patients with non-MAFLD, S-MAFLD and M-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly lower overall (p=0.026, p=0.004) and HCC-related (p<0.001, for both) risk of death. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly higher risk of non-HCC-related death (p=0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of MAFLD HCC in Italy is rapidly increasing to cover the majority of patients with HCC. Despite a less favourable cancer stage at diagnosis, patients with MAFLD HCC have a lower risk of HCC-related death, suggesting reduced cancer aggressiveness.

Ramucirumab for Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Elevated Alpha Fetoprotein Following Non-Sorafenib Systemic Therapy: An Expansion Cohort of REACH-2

BACKGROUND

Ramucirumab is indicated for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and α-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥400 ng/mL following sorafenib. Here, we prospectively studied ramucirumab following non-sorafenib systemic therapies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This open-label, non-comparative cohort of REACH-2 enrolled patients with advanced HCC, Child-Pugh class-A liver disease, and AFP ≥400 ng/mL who had received 1-2 lines of therapy, excluding sorafenib or chemotherapy. Ramucirumab was administered 8 mg/kg intravenously Q2W. The primary endpoint was safety. Secondary endpoints were overall survival, progression-free survival, objective response rate (RECIST v1.1), time to progression, pharmacokinetics, and patient-reported outcomes. Final analysis occurred after all enrolled patients completed ≥3 treatment cycles or discontinued treatment.

RESULTS

Between April 27, 2018, and March 29, 2021, 47 patients were treated at 21 investigative sites in Asia, Europe, and USA. The most frequently reported grade ≥3 adverse events, regardless of causality, were hypertension (11%), proteinuria (6%), hyponatremia (6%), and AST increased (6%). Two patients died from adverse events (myocardial infarction and upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage), deemed related to treatment. Median progression-free survival, time to progression, and overall survival were 1.7 months, 2.8 months, and 8.7 months, respectively. The objective response rate was 10.6% with a median duration response of 8.3 months. Median time to deterioration in FHSI-8 total score was 4.4 months.

CONCLUSION

Ramucirumab demonstrated consistent and meaningful clinical activity with no new safety signals following non-sorafenib therapies in patients with advanced HCC and AFP ≥400 ng/mL. This represents one of the first sequencing studies for patients with advanced HCC not treated with sorafenib.

Outcome after Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Noncirrhotic Liver-A Single Centre Study

Liver cirrhosis is the most common risk factor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, 10 to 15% of all HCC arise in a non-cirrhotic liver. Few reliable data exist on outcome after liver resection in a non-cirrhotic liver. The aim of this single-centre study was to evaluate the outcome of resection for HCC in non-cirrhotic liver (NC-HCC) and to determine prognostic factors for overall (OS) and intrahepatic recurrence-free (RFS) survival. From 2008 to 2020, a total of 249 patients were enrolled in this retrospective study. Primary outcome was OS and RFS. Radiological and pathological findings, such as tumour size, number of nodules, Tumour-, Nodes-, Metastases- (TNM) classification and vascular invasion as well as extent of surgical resection and laboratory liver function were collected. Here, 249 patients underwent liver resection for NC-HCC. In this case, 50% of patients underwent major liver resection, perioperative mortality was 6.4%. Median OS was 35.4 months (range 1-151 months), median RFS was 10.5 months (range 1-128 moths). Tumour diameter greater than three centimetres, multifocal tumour disease, vascular invasion, preoperative low albumin and increased alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) values were associated with significantly worse OS. Our study shows that resection for NC-HCC is an acceptable treatment approach with comparatively good outcome even in extensive tumours.

Characteristics and survival of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive and contemporary data pertaining large populations of patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are missing.

AIM

To describe main characteristics and outcome of PBC patients with HCC diagnosed in the new millennium.

METHODS

Analysing the Italian Liver Cancer registry we identified 80 PBC patients with HCC diagnosed after the year 2000, and described their clinical characteristics, access to treatment and survival.

RESULTS

Median age of patients was 71 years and 50.0% were males. Cirrhosis was present in 86.3% of patients, being well-compensated in 58.0%. Median HCC diameter was smaller in patients under surveillance (2.6 vs 4.0 cm, P = 0.007). Curative treatment, feasible in 50.0% of patients, was associated with improved survival compared to palliative and supportive care (42 vs 33 vs 6 months, P<0.0001). Surveillance was associated with a non-significant improved survival (36 vs 23 months), likely due to similar rate of curative treatment in patients under (51.4%) and outside surveillance (42.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

PBC patients with HCC are often elderly males with well-preserved liver function. Feasibility of curative treatment is high and associated with improved prognosis. Description of these patients may help focus surveillance to identify earlier tumours, increase their curability, and improve prognosis.

The prognostic significance of inflammation-immunity-nutrition score on postoperative survival and recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

Background

Inflammation, immunity, and nutrition status play important roles in tumorigenesis, progression, and metastasis. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of Inflammation-Immunity-Nutrition Score (IINS) for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing radical surgery.

Methods

A total of 204 HCC patients who met the criteria were included in this retrospective study: 144 in the prediction model and 60 in the validation model. IINS was constructed based on the sum of classification scores of preoperative high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), lymphocyte (LYM), and albumin (ALB). The associations between the IINS group and the clinicopathologic characteristics were analyzed using Pearson’s χ2 test or Fisher’s exact test. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate variables significant on univariate analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were conducted to investigate the prognostic values of IINS, Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and IINS-AFP classification. The prognostic performances of all the potential prognostic factors were further compared by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and time-dependent ROC curve. The internal validation and external validation were used to ensure the credibility of this prediction model.

Results

The patients were divided into low and high IINS groups according to the median of IINS. According to multivariate Cox regression analyses, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) Stage (P=0.003), AFP (P=0.013), and IINS (P=0.028) were independent prognostic factors for OS, and BCLC Stage (P=0.009), microvascular invasion (P=0.030), and IINS (P=0.031) were independent prognostic factors for PFS. High IINS group were associated with significantly worse OS and PFS compared with low IINS group (P<0.001; P=0.004). In terms of clinical prognosis, IINS-AFP classification was good in group I, moderate in group II, and poor in group III. Group I had a longer OS (P<0.001) and PFS (P=0.008) compared with group II and III. ROC analysis revealed that IINS-AFP classification had a better prognostic performance for OS (AUC: 0.767) and PFS (AUC: 0.641) than other predictors, excluding its slightly lower predictive power for PFS than IINS. The time-dependent ROC curves also showed that both IINS (12-month AUC: 0.650; 24-month AUC: 0.670; 36-month AUC: 0.880) and IINS-AFP classification (12-month AUC: 0.720; 24-month AUC: 0.760; 36-month AUC: 0.970) performed well in predicting OS for HCC patients. Furthermore, the internal validation and external validation proved that IINS had good predictive performance, strong internal validity and external applicability, and could be used to establish the prediction model.

Conclusion

Inflammation-immunity-nutrition score could be a powerful clinical prognostic indicator in HCC patients undergoing radical surgery. Furthermore, IINS-AFP classification presents better prognostic performance than IINS or AFP alone, and might serve as a practical guidance to help patients adjust treatment and follow-up strategies to improve future outcomes.

Patient stratification in hepatocellular carcinoma: impact on choice of therapy

INTRODUCTION

HCC comprises around 60 to 80% of all primary liver cancers and exhibits wide geographical variability. Appropriate treatment allocation needs to include both patient and tumor characteristics.

AREAS COVERED

Current HCC classification systems to guide therapy are either liver function-centric and evaluate physiologic liver function to guide therapy or prognostic stratification classification systems broadly based on tumor morphologic parameters, patient performance status, and liver reserve assessment. This review focuses on different classification systems for HCC, their strengths, and weaknesses as well as the use of artificial intelligence in improving prognostication in HCC.

EXPERT OPINION

Future HCC classification systems will need to incorporate clinic-pathologic data from a multitude of sources and emerging therapies to develop patient-specific treatment plans targeting a patient's unique tumor profile.

The ITA.LI.CA Consortium: How multicentre collaboration helped shape the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma on the basis of real-world evidence

The growing diffusion of digitalisation and informatics has promoted the creation and analysis of large databases able to provide solid information. Analyses of "big data" generated by real-world practice are particularly useful for knowing incidence and mortality, disparities, temporal trends of diseases, identifying risk factors, predicting future scenarios, obtaining inputs for cost-effectiveness and treatment benefit modelling, designing new studies, and monitoring rare diseases. Although randomised controlled trials (RCTs) represent the gold-standard for generating evidence about new diagnostic, preventive or therapeutic procedures, their results should be integrated with real-world data to personalise patient management. Indeed, a substantial proportion of patients observed in field-practice have characteristics that prevent the access to RCTs or, when included, form sub-groups too small to provide robust post-hoc analyses. Furthermore, as RCTs are resource-consuming and designed to maximize the probability of success, they are generally performed in expert centres of high-income areas, excluding economically-deprived regions which could complementarily contribute to the medical progress as huge sources of real-world data. These considerations fuelled the creation in 1998 of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) consortium, with the aim to merge data of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) managed in several centres. This cooperation permitted to analyse a multicentre, large cohort of HCC patients. Since then, the ITA.LI.CA group has progressively expanded to currently include 24 centres, and its database counts more than 9,000 patients. This article describes the history of the ITA.LI.CA consortium and presents its scientific production whose results greatly contributed to the incessant improvement of HCC management.

Elevated serum CA19-9 indicates severe liver inflammation and worse survival after curative resection in hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma

We explored the prognostic value of preoperative CA19-9 in α-fetoprotein (AFP)-positive and -negative HCC with hepatitis B virus (HBV) background (HBV-HCC), and explored the underlying mechanism. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed in HBV-HCC patients who underwent curative resection (Cohort 1). Immunohistochemical staining of CA19-9 in HCC and liver parenchyma were quantified in another cohort of 216 patients with resected HCC (Cohort 2). Immunohistochemical staining of CA19-9 and serum CA19-9 level was also compared between patients with HCC and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) (Cohort 3). In Cohort 1, CA19-9 ≥ 39 U/mL was an independent risk factor for RFS (HR = 1.507, 95% CI = 1.087-2.091, p = 0.014) and OS (HR = 1.646, 95% CI = 1.146-2.366, p = 0.007). CA19-9 ≥ 39 U/mL was also associated with significantly higher incidence of macrovascular invasion (MaVI) compared with CA19-9 < 39 U/mL (23.0% vs. 7.2%, p = 0.002), and elevated aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), and lower albumin. Immunohistochemical staining of CA19-9 revealed that CA19-9 expression was found exclusively in the background liver but not in HCC tumor cells. In contrast, tumor tissue was the main source of CA19-9 in ICC patients. CA19-9 ≥ 39 U/mL was associated with worse OS and RFS in both AFP-positive and negative HCC patients. CA19-9 indicated more severe inflammation and cirrhosis in the liver of HCC patients.

A New Prognostic Algorithm Predicting HCC Recurrence in Patients With Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage B Who Received PA-TACE

Background

Postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) is effective in preventing the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients treated with surgery. However, there is a lack of reports studying the risk factors associated with recurrence in HCC patients who received PA-TACE. In this study, we identified the independent risk factors for recurrence of HCC patients who received PA-TACE. We also developed a novel, effective, and valid nomogram to predict the individual probability of recurrence, 1, 3, and 5 years after PA-TACE.

Methods

A retrospective study was performed to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence of HCC in a group of 502 patients diagnosed in stage B based on the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) evaluation system for HCC that underwent curative resections. Then, subgroup analysis was performed for 184 patients who received PA-TACE, who were included in the training cohort. The other 147 HCC patients were included in a validation cohort. A recurrence-free survival (RFS)-predicting nomogram was constructed, and results were assessed using calibration and decision curves and a time-dependent AUC diagram.

Results

PA-TACE was shown to be a significant independent prognostic value for patients with BCLC stage B [p < 0.001, hazard ratio (HR) = 0.508, 95% CI = 0.375–0.689 for OS, p = 0.002; HR = 0.670, 95%CI = 0.517–0.868 for RFS]. Alpha fetoprotein (AFP), tumor number, tumor size, microvascular invasion (MVI), and differentiation were considered as independent risk factors for RFS in the training cohort, and these were further confirmed in the validation cohort. Next, a nomogram was constructed to predict RFS. The C-index for RFS in the nomogram was 0.721 (95% CI = 0.718–0.724), which was higher than SNACOR, HAP, and CHIP scores (0.587, 0.573, and 0.607, respectively). Calibration and decision curve analyses and a time-dependent AUC diagram were used. Our nomogram showed stronger performance than these other nomograms in both the training and validation cohorts.

Conclusions

HCC patients diagnosed as stage B according to BCLC may benefit from PA-TACE after surgery. The RFS nomogram presented here provides an accurate and reliable prognostic model to monitor recurrence. Patients with a high recurrence score based on the nomogram should receive additional high-end imaging exams and shorter timeframes in between follow-up visits.

Comparison of prognostic models in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing Sorafenib: A multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Sorafenib is the gold standard therapy for the advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). No scoring/staging is universally accepted to predict the survival of these patients.

AIMS

To evaluate the accuracy of the available prognostic models for HCC to predict the survival of advanced HCC patients treated with Sorafenib included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA.) multicenter cohort.

METHODS

The performance of several prognostic scores was assessed through a Cox regression-model evaluating the C-index and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

Data of 1129 patients were analyzed. The mean age of patients was 61.6 years, and 80.8% were male. During a median follow-up period of 13 months, 789 patients died. The median period of Sorafenib administration was 4 months. All the prognostic scores were able to predict the overall survival (p<0.001) at univariate analysis, except the Albumin-Bilirubin score. The Italian Liver Cancer score (CLIP) yielded the highest accuracy (C-index 0.604, AIC 9898), followed by the ITA.LI.CA. prognostic score (C-index 0.599, AIC 9915).

CONCLUSIONS

The CLIP score had the highest accuracy in predicting the overall survival of HCC patients treated with Sorafenib, although its performance remained poor. Further studies are needed to refine the current ability to predict the outcome of HCC patients undergoing Sorafenib.

A Nomogram-Based Prognostic Model for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Treated with Sorafenib: A Multicenter Study

Among scores and staging systems used for HCC, none showed a good prognostic ability in patients with advanced HCC treated with Sorafenib. We aimed to evaluate predictive factors of overall survival (OS) and drug response in HCC patients undergoing Sorafenib included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA.) multicenter cohort. Patients in the ITA.LI.CA database treated with Sorafenib and updated on 30 June 2019 were included. Demographic and clinical data before starting Sorafenib treatment were considered. For the evaluation of predictive factors for OS, a time-dependent Cox proportional hazard model was used. A total of 1107 patients were included in our analysis. The mean age was 64.3 years and 81.7% were male. Most patients were staged as BCLC B (205, 18.9%) or C (706, 65.1%). The median time of Sorafenib administration was 4 months (interquartile range (IQR) 2-12), and the median OS was 10 months (IQR: 4-20). A total of 263 patients (33.8%) out of 780 with available evaluation experienced objective tumoral response to Sorafenib. The Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status (PS) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.284), maximum tumoral diameter (HR 1.100), plasma total bilirubin (HR 1.119), aspartate amino transferase assessed as multiple of the upper normal value (HR 1.032), alpha-fetoprotein ≥200 ng/mL (HR 1.342), hemoglobin (HR 0.903) and platelet count (HR 1.002) were associated with OS at multivariate Cox regression analysis. Drug response was predicted by maximum tumoral diameter and platelet count. A novel prognostic nomogram for patients undergoing Sorafenib is hereby proposed. The novelty introduced is the comprehensive patient's assessment using common markers of patient's general status, liver damage and function and HCC biology. Further studies are required to test its accuracy and provide external validation.

Systemic immune-inflammation index predicts prognosis of sequential therapy with sorafenib and regorafenib in hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Regorafenib has shown promising results as a second-line therapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who progressed on sorafenib. Although there have been several data regarding the efficacy of sequential therapy with sorafenib and that of regorafenib in real-life, specific inflammation markers for predicting the prognosis have not been studied. This study aimed to investigate prognostic value of systemic inflammatory markers in patients with HCC who received sorafenib-regorafenib sequential therapy.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed medical data of patients who received regorafenib for the treatment of HCC after sorafenib failure. Progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed using the Kaplan–Meier survival curves. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to analyze the factors associated with survival.

Results

A total of 58 patients who received at least one dose of regroafenib and fulfilled the eligibility criteria, good performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group [ECOG] 0–1) and preserved liver function (Child-Pugh-A), were included in the analysis. The median PFS was 3 months (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.981–5.019) and the median OS was 8 months (95% CI = 5.761–10.239). Elevated systemic immune-inflammation index (SII ≥340) was independently associated with poor OS. In multivariate analysis, the SII (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.211, 95% CI = 1.089–4.489, P = 0.028) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (HR = 2.750, 95% CI = 1.259–6.010, P = 0.011) were independent predictors of OS.

Conclusion

Elevated SII is associated with poor OS in patients with HCC who received sequential therapy with sorafenib and regorafenib. In addition, when selecting a treatment strategy, the SII can be used in combination with the AFP level as a promising prognostic tool for HCC.

Overview of Prognostic Systems for Hepatocellular Carcinoma and ITA.LI.CA External Validation of MESH and CNLC Classifications

Prognostic assessment in patients with HCC remains an extremely difficult clinical task due to the complexity of this cancer where tumour characteristics interact with degree of liver dysfunction, patient general health status, and a large span of available treatment options. Several prognostic systems have been proposed in the last three decades, both from the Asian and European/North American countries. Prognostic scores, such as the CLIP score and the recent MESH score, have been generated on a solid statistical basis from real life population data, while staging systems, such as the BCLC scheme and the recent CNLC classification, have been created by experts according to recent HCC prognostic evidences from the literature. A third category includes combined prognostic systems that can be used both as prognostic scores and staging systems. A recent example is the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system including either a prognostic score and a simplified staging system. This review focuses first on an overview of the main prognostic systems for HCC classified according to the above three categories, and, second, on a comprehensive description of the methodology required for a correct comparison between different systems in terms of prognostic performance. In this second section the main studies in the literature comparing different prognostic systems are described in detail. Lastly, a formal comparison between the last prognostic systems proposed for each of the above three categories is performed using a large Italian database including 6882 HCC patients in order to concretely apply the comparison rules previously described.

Surveillance as Determinant of Long-Term Survival in Non-Transplanted Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

PURPOSE

We aimed at assessing the impact of surveillance on long-term survival in HCC patients.

METHODS

From the ITA.LI.CA database, we selected 1028 cases with long (≥5 years, LS group) and 2721 controls with short-term survival (<5 years, SS group). The association between surveillance and LS was adjusted for confounders by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Survival of surveilled patients was presented both as observed and corrected for the lead-time bias, and the comparison of survival between surveillance and no surveillance groups was also performed after balancing the baseline characteristics with inverse probability weights (IPW).

RESULTS

LS patients were more frequently diagnosed under surveillance (p < 0.0001), and had more favorable baseline characteristics. Surveillance was an independent predictor of LS (OR = 1.413, 95% CI 1.195-1.671; p < 0.0001). The observed and the lead-time corrected survival of surveilled patients were significantly longer compared to the survival of not surveilled patients (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.0008, respectively). In IPW adjusted populations, no survival differences were demonstrated between the two groups (p = 0.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Surveillance, increasing early-stage diagnosis and applicability of curative treatments, is a fundamental determinant of long-term survival in HCC patients. A wide implementation of surveillance programs should be pursued in order to improve HCC patients' prognosis.

Clinical Characterisation and Management of the Main Treatment-Induced Toxicities in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Cirrhosis

Simple Summary

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma continues to increase worldwide. In almost all cases, hepatocellular carcinoma develops in subjects with hepatic cirrhosis and patients can therefore present symptoms that are attributable to both conditions. There are several ablation techniques currently available for the treatment of unresectable HCC associated with early-stage cirrhosis. Moreover, novel therapies with biological agents and immunotherapy have come to be standard options in the approach to systemic treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. However, in addition to being costly, these drugs are not devoid of adverse effects and their management cannot forgo the consideration of the underlying hepatic impairment. Therefore, these patients require a mandatory multidisciplinary management.

Abstract

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) continues to increase worldwide, particularly in Western countries. In almost all cases, HCC develops in subjects with hepatic cirrhosis, often as the result of hepatitis B or C virus infection, alcohol abuse or metabolic forms secondary to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. Patients with HCC and hepatic symptoms can therefore present symptoms that are attributable to both conditions. These patients require multidisciplinary management, calling for close interaction between the hepatologist and the oncologist. Indeed, the treatment of HCC requires, depending on the disease stage and the degree of hepatic impairment, locoregional therapies that can in turn be broken down into surgical and nonsurgical treatments and systemic treatments used in the event of progression after the administration of locoregional treatments. The past decade has seen the publication of countless papers of great interest that have radically changed the scenario of treatment for HCC. Novel therapies with biological agents and immunotherapy have come to be standard options in the approach to treatment of this cancer, obtaining very promising results where in the past chemotherapy was almost never able to have an impact on the course of the disease. However, in addition to being costly, these drugs are not devoid of adverse effects and their management cannot forgo the consideration of the underlying hepatic impairment. Patients with HCC and cirrhosis therefore require special attention, starting from the initial characterisation needed for an appropriate selection of those to be referred for treatment, as these patients are almost never fit. In this chapter, we will attempt to investigate and clarify the key points of the management of the main toxicities induced by locoregional and systemic treatments for HCC secondary to cirrhosis.

Comparison between hepatocellular carcinoma prognostic scores: A 10-year single-center experience and brief review of the current literature

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents the most common primitive liver malignancy. A relevant concern involves the lack of agreement on staging systems, prognostic scores, and treatment allocation algorithms. 

AIM

To compare the survival rates among already developed prognostic scores.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 140 patients with HCC diagnosed between February 2006 and November 2017. Patients were categorized according to 15 prognostic scoring systems and estimated median survivals were compared with those available from the current medical literature.

RESULTS

The median overall survival of the cohort of patients was 35 (17; 67) mo, and it was statistically different in relation to treatment choice, ultrasound surveillance, and serum alpha-fetoprotein. The Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) tumor staging system performed best in predicting survival according to stage allocation among all 15 evaluated prognostic scores. Using the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system, 28.6%, 40.7%, 22.1%, and 8.6% of patients fell within stages 0-1, 2-3, 4-5 and > 5 respectively. The median survival was 57.9 mo for stages 0-1, 43 mo for stages 2-3, 21.7 mo for stages 4-5, and 10.4 mo for stage > 5. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were respectively 95%, 65%, and 20%, for stages 0-1; 94.7%, 43.9% and 26.3% for stages 2-3; 71%, 25.8% and 16.1% for stages 4-5; and 50%, 16.7% and 8.3% for stage > 5. At the same time, although statistically significant in prognostic stratification, the most commonly used Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system showed one of the most relevant differences in median survival, especially for stages A and C, when compared to the medical literature. In fact, 10.7%, 59.3%, 27.1%, 1.4%, and 0% of patients were stratified into stages 0, A, B, C, and D respectively. The median survival was > 81.1 mo for stage 0, 44.9 mo for stage A, 21.3 mo for stage B, and 3.1 mo for stage C. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were respectively 86.7%, 60%, and 46.7% for stage 0; 91.6%, 50.6%, and 20.5% for stage A; 73.7%, 23.7% and 13.2% for stage B; and 2%, 0% and 0% for stage C.

CONCLUSION

Survival analysis shows excellent prognostic ability of the ITA.LI.CA scoring system compared to other staging systems.

Prognostic nomogram for hepatocellular carcinoma with fibrosis of varying degrees: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common and biologically aggressive malignancy linked to cirrhotic and pre-cirrhotic changes in the liver. We analyzed degrees of fibrosis in affected patients as indices of survival, to establish an effective prognostic nomogram.

Methods

Eligible patients with HCC and hepatic fibrosis, of varying degrees, were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for propensity score matching (PSM). The prognostic value of data was determined using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards model. A nomogram based on variables derived from multivariate analyses was established and subjected to internal validation. Its predictive accuracy was tested by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots.

Results

In this propensity score-matched cohort, advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis (vs. none-to-moderate fibrosis) correlated with poorer survival [hazard ratio (HR): 1.131, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.032-1.240; P=0.009]. Multivariate analysis identified the following as independent risk factors for HCC: age >63 years, higher fibrosis score, American Joint Cancer Committee (AJCC) stages T3-4, distant metastasis (M1), tumor size >1 cm, major vascular invasion, and elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level. A nomogram that integrated these factors offered a superior prognostic prediction for HCC patients (C-index: 0.749, 95% CI: 0.7485-0.7495) relative to conventional tumor staging the AJCC tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (0.730). In calibration plots, optimal agreement between nomogram-predicted and observed survival was evident.

Conclusions

Increased fibrosis was an independent risk factor for survival of HCC patients. A prognostic nomogram integrating fibrosis score and other independent risk factors offered more accurate depictions in this regard.

Prognostic evaluation of HCC patients undergoing surgical resection: an analysis of 8 different staging systems

Purpose

No consensus exists regarding the most appropriate staging system to predict overall survival (OS) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in surgical candidates. Thus, we aimed to determine the prognostic ability of eight different staging systems in a European cohort of patients undergoing liver resection for HCC.

Methods

Patients resected for HCC between 2010 and 2019 at our institution were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. Likelihood ratio (LR) χ² (homogeneity), linear trend (LT) χ² (discriminatory ability), and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC, explanatory ability) were used to determine the staging system with the best overall prognostic performance.

Results

Liver resection for HCC was performed in 160 patients. Median OS was 39 months (95% confidence interval (CI): 32–46 months) and median RFS was 26 months (95% CI: 16–34 months). All staging systems (BCLC, HKLC, Okuda, CLIP, ITA.LI.CA staging and score, MESH, and GRETCH) showed significant discriminatory ability regarding OS, with ITA.LI.CA score (LR χ² 30.08, LT χ² 13.90, AIC 455.27) and CLIP (LR χ² 28.65, LT χ² 18.95, AIC 460.07) being the best performing staging systems.

Conclusions

ITA.LI.CA and CLIP are the most suitable staging system to predict OS in European HCC patients scheduled for curative-intent surgery.

Effect of ramucirumab on ALBI grade in patients with advanced HCC: Results from REACH and REACH-2

Background & Aims

The albumin–bilirubin (ALBI) grade/score is derived from a validated nomogram to objectively assess prognosis and liver function in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this post hoc analysis, we assessed prognosis in terms of survival by baseline ALBI grade and monitored liver function during treatment with ramucirumab or placebo using the ALBI score in patients with advanced HCC.

Methods

Patients with advanced HCC, Child-Pugh class A with prior sorafenib treatment were randomised in REACH trials to receive ramucirumab 8 mg/kg or placebo every 2 weeks. Data were analysed by trial and as a meta-analysis of individual patient-level data (pooled population) from REACH (alpha-fetoprotein ≥400 ng/ml) and REACH-2. Patients from REACH with Child-Pugh class B were analysed as a separate cohort. The ALBI grades and scores were calculated at baseline and before each treatment cycle.

Results

Baseline characteristics by ALBI grade were balanced between treatment arms among patients in the pooled population (ALBI-1, n = 231; ALBI-2, n = 296; ALBI-3, n = 7). Baseline ALBI grade was prognostic for overall survival (OS; ALBI grade 2 vs. 1; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.38 [1.13–1.69]), after adjusting for other significant prognostic factors. Mean ALBI scores remained stable in both treatment arms compared with baseline and were unaffected by baseline ALBI grade, macrovascular invasion, tumour response, geographical region, or prior locoregional therapy. Baseline ALBI grades 2 and 3 were associated with increased incidence of liver-specific adverse events and discontinuation rates in both treatments. Ramucirumab improved OS in patients with baseline ALBI grade 1 (HR 0.605 [0.445–0.824]) and ALBI grade 2 (HR 0.814 [0.630–1.051]).

Conclusions

Compared with placebo, ramucirumab did not negatively impact liver function and improved survival irrespective of baseline ALBI grade.

Lay summary

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the third leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Prognosis is affected by many clinical factors including liver function both before and during anticancer treatment. Here we have used a validated approach to assess liver function using 2 laboratory parameters, serum albumin and bilirubin (ALBI), both before and during treatment with ramucirumab in 2 phase III placebo-controlled studies. We confirm the practicality of using this more simplistic approach in assessing liver function prior to and during anticancer therapy, and demonstrate ramucirumab did not impair liver function when compared with placebo.

•

In patients with HCC, the severity of coexisting liver dysfunction is usually categorised using the Child-Pugh system.

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We demonstrate that the simpler albumin–bilirubin (ALBI) nomogram can be used for pre-treatment prognostication and on-treatment assessment.

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Ramucirumab did not negatively impact on liver function compared to placebo in patients with advanced HCC and elevated AFP.

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Liver-specific adverse events were reported more frequently in patients with more severe liver disfunction at baseline.

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Ramucirumab provided a survival benefit irrespective of baseline liver function in patients with advanced HCC and elevated AFP.

Current status of systemic therapy in hepatocellular cancer

Hepatocellular cancer (HCC) is a common cancer and an important cause of cancer-related death globally. Although surgery is the primary curative treatment, most patients at diagnosis are not surgical candidates and are treated with liver-directed therapy and or systemic therapy. Over the past decade, the systemic treatment options for patients with advanced HCC have evolved. This paper reviews recent progress in systemic therapy and the results of major clinical trials involving novel compounds in patients with HCC. A literature search was performed using keywords related to HCC and systemic therapy. The evidence shows that at the present time an effective adjuvant systemic therapy is not available for patients with early-stage HCC following surgery. In patients with advanced HCC, in addition to sorafenib at least four other targeted agents and several immune checkpoint inhibitors, alone or in combination have been shown to be associated with improved progression-free and overall survival. The optimal sequence of agents, is currently not known, and is determined by patient characteristics, toxicities profile, patients and physicians preference. The future identification of novel active agents and predictive biomarkers are vital to personalize systemic therapy in HCC.

Efficacy and Safety of Ramucirumab in Asian and Non-Asian Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Elevated Alpha-Fetoprotein: Pooled Individual Data Analysis of Two Randomized Studies

OBJECTIVE

REACH-2 and REACH were randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, multicenter phase 3 trials which showed survival benefits of ramucirumab treatment in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). We evaluated the efficacy and safety of ramucirumab in Asian and non-Asian patients with AFP ≥400 ng/mL from REACH-2 and REACH.

METHODS

We pooled Asian and non-Asian patients from the REACH-2 and REACH trials and performed an individual patient data meta-analysis. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated with a stratified Cox regression model.

RESULTS

In the pooled REACH-2 and REACH patient population, 291 Asian patients were randomly assigned to receive ramucirumab (n = 168) or placebo (n = 123), and 251 non-Asian patients received ramucirumab (n = 148) or placebo (n = 103). The median OS was significantly longer in the ramucirumab arm in comparison to the placebo arm for Asian patients (8.08 vs. 4.76 months, stratified HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.56-0.95], p = 0.0189) and non-Asian patients (7.98 vs. 5.22 months, stratified HR 0.65 [95% CI 0.49-0.86], p = 0.0028). The overall response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR) were significantly higher in the ramucirumab arm compared to the placebo arm for Asian patients (ORR: 4.2 vs. 0.8%; DCR: 53.6 vs. 33.3%) and non-Asian patients (ORR: 6.8 vs. 1.0%; DCR: 59.5 vs. 41.7%). The most common grade ≥3 treatment-emergent adverse events reported in the ramucirumab arm were hypertension (7.7%), decreased appetite (1.2%), and ascites (1.2%) for Asian patients and hypertension (16.9%), ascites (8.8%), asthenia (4.7%), and fatigue (5.4%) for non-Asian patients.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

This pooled analysis of the REACH-2/REACH trials demonstrates significant benefits, with a manageable safety profile, of ramucirumab treatment in Asian and non-Asian patients with advanced HCC and baseline AFP ≥400 ng/mL.

Development and validation of a risk score for predicting mortality after resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma

Background: Primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHCC) has a poor prognosis and high short-term mortality rate, even after resection. Thus, early diagnosis in PHCC cases can help improve quality of life via personalized management strategies.

Results: The risk score system (RSS) were classified as low risk (<5 points), medium risk (5–10 points), or high risk (>10 points). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.80 in the training cohort and 0.69 in the validation cohort, which indicated satisfactory prognostic performance. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test (P>0.05) revealed consistent performance in both groups. The concordance index (C-index: 0.663, 95% CI: 0.618–0.708) revealed excellent discrimination and good calibration in the validation cohort.

Conclusions: This simple RSS, which is based on clinical and laboratory data from patients undergoing resection of PHCC, might allow clinicians and medical staff to better manage PHCC.

Materials and Methods: A total of 672 PHCC cases were retrospectively obtained from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between January 2007 and February 2015. Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify independent predictors of mortality. Kaplan-Meier curves and the log-rank test were used to examine the relationships between the prognostic factors and overall mortality.

Use of a novel index, the A-index, and its associated nomogram to predict overall survival rates after resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Several international staging or scoring systems don't accurately predict overall survival (OS) after resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHCC). Therefore, we attempted to overcome this limitation by constructing the A-index and its associated nomogram.

METHODS

We selected 672 patients who underwent curative resection of PHCC between January 2007 and February 2015 at the first affiliated hospital of the Wenzhou medical university. These subjects were randomly divided into the training (n = 470) and the validation group (n = 202) according to the ratio of 7:3.

RESULTS

We prepared the nomogram using eight independent risk factors including the A-index (calculated by 100 × aspartate transaminase /albumin /albumin) in the training cohort. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram for both training and validation set was similar in indicating the OS rate. The nomogram showed the strongest predictive power for the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS, with the area under the ROC curve being 0.8182, 0.7892, and 0.7669, respectively. Correction curves showed consistent performance for both groups, stratification of the Kaplan-Meier curve was significant (P < 0.001), and decision curve analysis (DCA) showed the superiority of nomograms considering clinical effects.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive power of the nomogram integrating the A-index for OS was optimal.

Targeted agents for second-line treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Over the past ten years, sorafenib, a multikinase inhibitor, has been the standard of care for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and well-preserved liver function. Recently, lenvatinib, a different multikinase inhibitor, was shown to be non-inferior to sorafenib, in terms of survival, while all other agents previously tested failed to prove non-inferiority (or superiority) when compared to sorafenib. Similarly, in the second-line setting, most investigational drugs failed to provide better survival outcomes than placebo. However, in the last 2 years three positive phase III trials have been published in this setting. The RESORCE trial, a phase III study evaluating regorafenib in HCC patients who experienced disease progression after first-line treatment with sorafenib, showed better outcomes with regorafenib compared to placebo. More recently, the phase III CELESTIAL trial demonstrated the superiority of cabozantinib, a multikinase inhibitor targeting vascular endothelial growth factor receptor, MET, and AXL, vs placebo in the second- and third-line setting in patients progressing on or intolerant to sorafenib. The survival benefits of a sustained anti-angiogenic inhibition were demonstrated also with ramucirumab in the phase III REACH-2 trial in patients previously treated with sorafenib and who had high baseline alpha-fetoprotein levels. Overall, the adverse events reported in these trials were in line with the known safety profiles of the tested agents. After nearly a decade of a certain degree of stagnation, we are now witnessing a period of novel therapeutic advances with multikinase inhibitors and monoclonal antibodies that will likely change the treatment scenario of HCC.

The concept of therapeutic hierarchy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic system for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has recently been proposed and validated. We sought to explore the relationship among the ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables (ie tumour stage, functional score based on performance status and Child-Pugh score, and alpha-fetoprotein), treatment selection and survival outcome in HCC patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We analysed 4,867 consecutive HCC patients undergoing six main treatment strategies (liver transplantation, LT; liver resection, LR; ablation, ABL; intra-arterial therapy, IAT; Sorafenib, SOR; and best supportive care, BSC) and enrolled during 2002-2015 in a multicenter Italian database. In order to control pretreatment imbalances in observed variables, a machine learning methodology was used and inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) was calculated. An IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model that included ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables, treatment period and treatment strategy was then developed. The survival benefit of HCC treatments was described as a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), using BSC as a reference value and as predicted median survival.

RESULTS

After the IPTW, the six treatment groups became well balanced for most baseline characteristics. In the IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model, treatment strategy was found to be the strongest survival predictor, irrespective of ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables and treatment period. The survival benefit of different therapies over BSC was: LT = 0.19 (0.18-0.20); RES = 0.40 (0.37-0.42); ABL 0.42 (0.40-0.44); IAT = 0.58 (0.55-0.61); SOR = 0.92 (0.87-0.97). This multivariate model was then used to predict median survival for each therapy within each ITA.LI.CA stage.

CONCLUSION

The concept of therapeutic hierarchy was established within each ITA.LI.CA stage.

Integrated tumor stromal features of hepatocellular carcinoma reveals two distinct subtypes with prognostic/predictive significance

Current clinical classification of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unable to predict prognosis efficiently. Our aim is to classify HCC into clinically/biologically relevant subtypes according to stromal factors. We detected seven types of stromal features in tumors from 161 HCC patients by immunohistochemical staining and Hematoxylin-eosin staining. Five stromal features were selected out of seven types of stromal features to construct stromal type based on LASSO COX regression model. Then, integrating multiple clinicopathologic characteristics and stromal type, we built two nomograms for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Further validation of the stromal type and nomograms were performed in the testing cohort (n = 160) and validation cohort (n = 120). Using the LASSO model, we classified HCC patients into stromal type A subgroup (CD34^lowTIL-stromal-ratio^highStromal-tumor-ratio^lowα-SMA^weakStroma^mature) and stromal type B subgroup (CD34^highTIL-stromal-ratio^lowStromal-tumor-ratio^highα-SMA^strongStroma^immature). The stromal type was an independent prognostic factor for OS and DFS in the training, testing and validation cohorts. Two nomograms (for OS and DFS) that integrated the stromal type and clinicopathologic risk factors also showed good predictive accuracy and discriminatory power. In addition, immune cell recruitment in the tumor microenvironment (TME) was conditioned by the tumor stromal type. In conclusion, the newly developed tumor stromal type was an effective predictor of OS and DFS. Furthermore, the stromal type is associated with the immune phenotype in the TME.

Detect or not to detect very early stage hepatocellular carcinoma? The western perspective

Very early stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is defined as a single tumor with the largest diameter of the lesion measuring 2 cm or less according to Barcelona Liver Cancer staging system. Detection of very early stage HCC is clinically important as it confers an excellent prognosis with the 5-year survival rates over 60 to 80% after patients receive curative treatments. While diagnosing HCC at a very early stage is crucial, it is technically challenging and may come with the physical or psychosocial harms related to diagnostic tests. It is further complicated by the fact that patients with very early stage HCC are not prioritized for liver transplant (LT) in the United States organ allocation system. When LT-eligible patients present with an indeterminate lesion measuring between 1 and 2 cm on the multiphasic computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, clinicians often observe patients carefully until the lesion grows up to 2 cm so that patients can be eligible to receive a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) exception score for HCC in the United States. The European guideline recommends a routine biopsy of such lesion. In conclusion, attempting to detect very early stage HCC is difficult to achieve and controversial. Clinicians should take into account of the risk and the benefit of diagnostic tests, LT candidacy of patients and the local organ allocation system.

Ramucirumab after sorafenib in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma and increased α-fetoprotein concentrations (REACH-2): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma and increased α-fetoprotein concentrations have poor prognosis. We aimed to establish the efficacy of ramucirumab in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma and α-fetoprotein concentrations of 400 ng/mL or higher.

METHODS

REACH-2 was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial done at 92 hospitals, clinics, and medical centres in 20 countries. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older and had histologically or cytologically confirmed hepatocellular carcinoma, or diagnosed cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B or C disease, Child-Pugh class A liver disease, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance statuses of 0 or 1, α-fetoprotein concentrations of 400 ng/mL or greater, and had previously received first-line sorafenib. Participants were randomly assigned (2:1) via an interactive web response system with a computer-generated random sequence to 8 mg/kg intravenous ramucirumab every 2 weeks or placebo. All patients received best supportive care. The primary endpoint was overall survival. Secondary endpoints were progression-free survival, proportion of patients achieving an objective response, time to radiographic progression, safety, time to deterioration in scores on the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy Hepatobiliary Symptom Index 8 (FHSI-8), and time to deterioration in ECOG performance status. We also pooled individual patient data from REACH-2 with data from REACH (NCT01140347) for patients with α-fetoprotein concentrations of 400 ng/mL or greater. Efficacy analyses were by intention to treat, whereas safety analyses were done in all patients who received at least one dose of study drug. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02435433.

FINDINGS

Between July 26, 2015, and Aug 30, 2017, 292 patients were randomly assigned, 197 to the ramucirumab group and 95 to the placebo group. At a median follow-up of 7·6 months (IQR 4·0-12·5), median overall survival (8·5 months [95% CI 7·0-10·6] vs 7·3 months [5·4-9·1]; hazard ratio [HR] 0·710 [95% CI 0·531-0·949]; p=0·0199) and progression-free survival (2·8 months [2·8-4·1] vs 1·6 months [1·5-2·7]; 0·452 [0·339-0·603]; p<0·0001) were significantly improved in the ramucirumab group compared with the placebo group. The proportion of patients with an objective response did not differ significantly between groups (nine [5%] of 197 vs one [1%] of 95; p=0·1697). Median time to deterioration in FHSI-8 total scores (3·7 months [95% CI 2·8-4·4] vs 2·8 months [1·6-2·9]; HR 0·799 [95% CI 0·545-1·171]; p=0·238) and ECOG performance statuses (HR 1·082 [95% CI 0·639-1·832]; p=0·77) did not differ between groups. Grade 3 or worse treatment-emergent adverse events that occurred in at least 5% of patients in either group were hypertension (25 [13%] in the ramucirumab group vs five [5%] in the placebo group), hyponatraemia (11 [6%] vs 0) and increased aspartate aminotransferase (six [3%] vs five [5%]). Serious adverse events of any grade and cause occurred in 68 (35%) patients in the ramucirumab group and 28 (29%) patients in the placebo group. Three patients in the ramucirumab group died from treatment-emergent adverse events that were judged to be related to study treatment (one had acute kidney injury, one had hepatorenal syndrome, and one had renal failure).

INTERPRETATION

REACH-2 met its primary endpoint, showing improved overall survival for ramucirumab compared with placebo in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and α-fetoprotein concentrations of at least 400 ng/mL who had previously received sorafenib. Ramucirumab was well tolerated, with a manageable safety profile. To our knowledge, REACH-2 is the first positive phase 3 trial done in a biomarker-selected patient population with hepatocellular carcinoma.

FUNDING

Eli Lilly.

Restaging Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Before Additional Treatment Decisions: A Multicenter Cohort Study

Prognostic assessment of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the time of diagnosis remains controversial and becomes even more complex at the time of restaging when new variables need to be considered. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the prognostic utility of restaging patients before proceeding with additional therapies for HCC. Two independent Italian prospective databases were used to identify 1,196 (training cohort) and 648 (validation cohort) consecutive patients with HCC treated over the same study period (2008-2015) who had complete restaging before decisions about additional therapies. The performance of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic score at restaging was compared with that of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Hong Kong Liver Cancer, and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program systems. A multivariable Cox survival analysis was performed to identify baseline, restaging, or dynamic variables that were able to improve the predictive performance of the prognostic systems. At restaging, 35.3% of patients maintained stable disease; most patients were either down-staged by treatment (27.2%) or had disease progression (37.5%). The ITA.LI.CA scoring system at restaging demonstrated the best prognostic performance in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.707 and 0.722, respectively) among all systems examined. On multivariable analysis, several variables improved the prognostic ability of the ITA.LI.CA score at restaging, including progressive disease after the first treatment, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at restaging, and choice of nonsurgical treatment as additional therapy. A new ITA.LI.CA restaging model was created that demonstrated high discriminative power in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.753 and 0.745, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Although the ITA.LI.CA score demonstrated the best prognostic performance at restaging, other variables should be considered to improve the prognostic assessment of patients at the time of deciding additional therapies for HCC.

A model combining TNM stage and tumor size shows utility in predicting recurrence among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after resection

Objective

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence is a clinical challenge. An accurate prediction system for patients with HCC is needed, since the choice of HCC treatment strategies is very important.

Patients and methods

A total of 804 patients with HCC who underwent curative resection at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were included in this study. Demographics, clinicopathological data, and follow-up information were collected.

Results

A logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate the relationships between clinical features and HCC recurrence. Tumor size (OR=1.454, 95% CI: 1.047–2.020, P=0.026) and TNM stage (OR=1.360, 95% CI: 1.021–1.813, P=0.036) were independent predictors of HCC recurrence after curative resection. Therefore, the following equation was established to predict HCC recurrence: 0.308×TNM+0.374×tumor size–0.639. The equation score was 0.53±0.23 in patients who experienced HCC recurrence compared with 0.47±0.24 in other patients. A similar trend was observed in patients who survived after the last follow-up, compared with those who did not, with scores of 0.37±0.26 vs 0.52±0.22, respectively (P<0.001). The Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that patients with HCC with equation values >0.5 had significantly worse outcomes than those with equation values ≤0.5 (P<0.001) for overall survival (OS) and recurrence (P=0.043). Multivariate Cox analyses showed that tumor multiplicity (P=0.039), involucrum (P=0.029), vascular invasion (P<0.001), and equation value (P<0.001) were independent prognostic variables for OS, whereas tumor multiplicity (P=0.01), tumor differentiation (P=0.007), vascular invasion (P<0.001), involucrum (P=0.01), and equation value (P<0.001) were independent prognostic variables for HCC recurrence.

Conclusion

We established a novel and effective equation for predicting the probability of recurrence and OS after curative resection. Patients with a high recurrence score, based on this equation, should undergo additional high-end imaging examinations.

Integrated genomic analysis for prediction of survival for patients with liver cancer using The Cancer Genome Atlas

AIM

To evaluate the prognostic power of different molecular data in liver cancer.

METHODS

Cox regression screen and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator were performed to select significant prognostic variables. Then the concordance index was calculated to evaluate the prognostic power. For the combination data, based on the clinical cox model, molecular features that better fit the model were combined to calculate the concordance index. Prognostic models were built based on the arithmetic summation of the significant variables. Kaplan-Meier survival curve and log-rank test were performed to compare the survival difference. Then a heatmap was constructed and gene set enrichment analysis was performed for pathway analysis.

RESULTS

The mRNA data were the most informative prognostic variables in all kinds of omics data in liver cancer, with the highest concordance index (C-index) of 0.61. For the copy number variation, methylation and miRNA data, the combination of molecular data with clinical data could significantly boost the prediction accuracy of the molecular data alone (P < 0.05). On the other hand, the combination of clinical data with methylation, miRNA and mRNA data could significantly boost the prediction accuracy of the clinical data itself (P < 0.05). Based on the significant prognostic variables, different prognostic models were built. In addition, the heatmap analysis, survival analysis, and gene set enrichment analysis validated the practicability of the prognostic models.

CONCLUSION

In all kinds of omics data in liver cancer, the mRNA data might be the most informative prognostic variable. The combination of clinical data with molecular data might be the future direction for cancer prognosis and prediction.

Alpha-fetoprotein kinetics in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma receiving ramucirumab or placebo: an analysis of the phase 3 REACH study

BACKGROUND

Post-hoc analyses of AFP response and progression and their relationship with objective measures of response and survival were performed in patients from REACH.

METHODS

Serum AFP was measured at baseline and every 3 cycles (2 weeks/cycle). Associations between AFP and radiographic progression and efficacy end points were analysed.

RESULTS

Median percent AFP increase from baseline was smaller in the ramucirumab than in the placebo arm throughout treatment. Time to AFP progression (HR 0.621; P < 0.0001) and to radiographic progression (HR 0.613; P < 0.0001) favoured ramucirumab. Association between AFP and radiographic progression was shown at 6 (OR 6.44, 95% CI 4.03, 10.29; P < 0.0001) and 12 weeks (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.47, 3.53; P = 0.0002). AFP response was higher with ramucirumab compared with placebo (P < 0.0001). More patients in the ramucirumab arm experienced tumour shrinkage and AFP response compared with placebo. Survival was longer in patients with AFP response (13.6 months) than in patients without (6.2 months), irrespective of treatment (HR 0.457, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment with ramucirumab prolonged time to AFP progression, slowed AFP increase and was more likely to induce AFP response. Similar benefits in radiographic progression and response correlated with AFP changes.