ABIDE: An Accurate Predictive Model of Liver Decompensation in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver-Related Cirrhosis

Preventing the progression of cirrhosis to decompensation and death

Two main stages are differentiated in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD), one compensated (cACLD) with an excellent prognosis, and the other decompensated (dACLD), defined by the appearance of complications (ascites, variceal bleeding and hepatic encephalopathy) and associated with high mortality. Preventing the progression to dACLD might dramatically improve prognosis and reduce the burden of care associated with ACLD. Portal hypertension is a major driver of the transition from cACLD to dACLD, and a portal pressure of ≥10 mmHg defines clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) as the threshold from which decompensating events may occur. In recent years, innovative studies have provided evidence supporting new strategies to prevent decompensation in cACLD. These studies have yielded major advances, including the development of noninvasive tests (NITs) to identify patients with CSPH with reasonable confidence, the demonstration that aetiological therapies can prevent disease progression and even achieve regression of cirrhosis, and the finding that non-selective β-blockers can effectively prevent decompensation in patients with cACLD and CSPH, mainly by reducing the risk of ascites, the most frequent decompensating event. Here, we review the evidence supporting new strategies to manage cACLD to prevent decompensation and the caveats for their implementation, from patient selection using NITs to ancillary therapies.

Artificial Neural Networks: A New Frontier in Dental Tissue Regeneration

In the realm of dental tissue regeneration research, various constraints exist such as the potential variance in cell quality, potency arising from differences in donor tissue and tissue microenvironment, the difficulties associated with sustaining long-term and large-scale cell expansion while preserving stemness and therapeutic attributes, as well as the need for extensive investigation into the enduring safety and effectiveness in clinical settings. The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies has been suggested as a means to tackle these challenges. This is because, tissue regeneration research could be advanced through the use of diagnostic systems that incorporate mining methods such as neural networks (NN), fuzzy, predictive modeling, genetic algorithms, machine learning (ML), cluster analysis, and decision trees. This article seeks to offer foundational insights into a subset of AI referred to as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and assess their potential applications as essential decision-making support tools in the field of dentistry, with a particular focus on tissue engineering research. Although ANNs may initially appear complex and resource intensive, they have proven to be effective in laboratory and therapeutic settings. This expert system can be trained using clinical data alone, enabling their deployment in situations where rule-based decision-making is impractical. As ANNs progress further, it is likely to play a significant role in revolutionizing dental tissue regeneration research, providing promising results in streamlining dental procedures and improving patient outcomes in the clinical setting.

A roadmap for clinical trials in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis

Although metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is rapidly becoming a leading cause of cirrhosis worldwide, therapeutic options are limited and the number of clinical trials in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis is low as compared to those conducted in earlier disease stages. Moreover, designing clinical trials in MASH cirrhosis presents a series of challenges regarding the understanding and conceptualization of the natural history, regulatory considerations, inclusion criteria, recruitment, end points and trial duration, among others. The first international workshop on the state of the art and future direction of clinical trials in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis was held in April 2023 at Vall d'Hebron University Hospital in Barcelona (Spain) and was attended by a group of international experts on clinical trials from academia, regulatory agencies and industry, encompassing expertise in MASH, cirrhosis, portal hypertension, and regulatory affairs. The presented Roadmap summarizes important content of the workshop on current status, regulatory requirements and end points in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis clinical trials, exploring alternative study designs and highlighting the challenges that should be considered for upcoming studies on MASH cirrhosis.

Prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with hepatitis B: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) has increased in recent clinical practice; however, the relationship between CHB and hepatic steatosis (HS) remains controversial.

AIM

To shed light on the potential association between NAFLD and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search using multiple databases, including PubMed, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and EMBASE, to identify relevant studies. Predefined inclusion criteria were used to determine the eligibility of the studies for further analysis.

RESULTS

Comprehensive meta-analysis software was used for statistical analysis, which covered 20 studies. The results indicated a lower NAFLD susceptibility in HBV-infected individuals (pooled OR = 0.87; 95%CI = 0.69-1.08; I 2 = 91.1%), with diabetes (P = 0.015), body mass index (BMI; P = 0.010), and possibly age (P = 0.061) as heterogeneity sources. Of note, in four studies (6197 HBV patients), HBV-infected individuals had a reduced NAFLD risk (OR = 0.68, 95%CI = 0.51-0.89, P = 0.006). A positive link between hyperlipidemia and metabolic syndrome emerged in hepatitis B patients, along with specific biochemical indicators, including BMI, creatinine, uric acid, fasting blood glucose, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance.

CONCLUSION

HBV infection may provide protection against HS; however, the occurrence of HS in patients with HBV infection is associated with metabolic syndrome and specific biochemical parameters.

Phenotypes of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) typically develops as a consequence of liver cirrhosis, but HCC epidemiology has evolved drastically in recent years. Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), including metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, has emerged as the most common chronic liver disease worldwide and a leading cause of HCC. A substantial proportion of MASLD-associated HCC (MASLD-HCC) also can develop in patients without cirrhosis. The specific pathways that trigger carcinogenesis in this context are not elucidated completely, and recommendations for HCC surveillance in MASLD patients are challenging. In the era of precision medicine, it is critical to understand the processes that define the profiles of patients at increased risk of HCC in the MASLD setting, including cardiometabolic risk factors and the molecular targets that could be tackled effectively. Ideally, defining categories that encompass key pathophysiological features, associated with tailored diagnostic and treatment strategies, should facilitate the identification of specific MASLD-HCC phenotypes. In this review, we discuss MASLD-HCC, including its epidemiology and health care burden, the mechanistic data promoting MASLD, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, and MASLD-HCC. Its natural history, prognosis, and treatment are addressed specifically, as the role of metabolic phenotypes of MASLD-HCC as a potential strategy for risk stratification. The challenges in identifying high-risk patients and screening strategies also are discussed, as well as the potential approaches for MASLD-HCC prevention and treatment.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of biomarkers predicting decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The transition from compensated to decompensated cirrhosis is crucial, drastically reducing prognosis from a median survival of over 10 years to 2 years. There is currently an unmet need to accurately predict decompensation. We systematically reviewed and meta-analysed data regarding biomarker use to predict decompensation in individuals with compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

PubMed and EMBASE database searches were conducted for all studies from inception until February 2024. The study was carried out according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The Quality of Prognosis Studies framework was used to assess the risk of bias. The meta-analysis was conducted with a random effects model using STATA software.

RESULTS

Of the 652 studies initially identified, 63 studies (n=31 438 patients) were included in the final review, examining 49 biomarkers. 25 studies (40%) were prospective with the majority of studies looking at all-cause decompensation (90%). The most well-studied biomarkers were platelets (n=17), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (n=17) and albumin (n=16). A meta-analysis revealed elevated international normalised ratio was the strongest predictor of decompensation, followed by decreased albumin. However, high statistical heterogeneity was noted (l2 result of 96.3%). Furthermore, 21 studies were assessed as having a low risk of bias (34%), 26 (41%) moderate risk and 16 (25%) high risk.

CONCLUSIONS

This review highlights key biomarkers that should potentially be incorporated into future scoring systems to predict decompensation. However, future biomarker studies should be conducted with rigorous and standardised methodology to ensure robust and comparable data.

Noninvasive Assessment of Portal Hypertension

The progressive use of noninvasive tests (NITs) has changed the way hepatologists diagnose and manage patients with chronic liver disease, mainly because of their easiness to use and the ability to be repeated during follow-up. Liver stiffness measurement is the NIT with more scientific evidence. NITs have demonstrated to be useful to detect not only liver fibrosis but also the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension. Moreover, current evidence supports they can also be useful to evaluate the prognosis of patients with chronic liver disease.

Point-of-Care Noninvasive Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Individual risk prediction of liver-related events (LRE) is needed for clinical assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. We aimed to provide point-of-care validated liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-based risk prediction models for the development of LRE in patients with NAFLD, focusing on selecting patients for clinical trials at risk of clinical events.

METHODS

Two large multicenter cohorts were evaluated, 2638 NAFLD patients covering all LSM values as the derivation cohort and 679 more advanced patients as the validation cohort. We used Cox regression to develop and validate risk prediction models based on LSM alone, and the ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models for clinically significant portal hypertension. The main outcome of the study was the rate of LRE in the first 3 years after initial assessment.

RESULTS

The 3 predictive models had similar performance in the derivation cohort with a very high discriminative value (c-statistic, 0.87-0.91). In the validation cohort, the LSM-LRE alone model had a significant inferior discrimination (c-statistic, 0.75) compared with the other 2 models, whereas the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model (0.81) was significantly better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model (0.79). In addition, the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model presented very good calibration in the validation cohort (integrated calibration index, 0.016), and was better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model.

CONCLUSIONS

The ANTICIPATE-LRE models, and especially the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model, could be valuable validated clinical tools to individually assess the risk of LRE at 3 years in patients with NAFLD/NASH.

Predicting liver-related events in NAFLD: A predictive model

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Management of NAFLD involves noninvasive prediction of fibrosis, which is a surrogate for patient outcomes. We aimed to develop and validate a model predictive of liver-related events (LREs) of decompensation and/or HCC and compare its accuracy with fibrosis models.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Patients with NAFLD from Australia and Spain who were followed for up to 28 years formed derivation (n = 584) and validation (n = 477) cohorts. Competing risk regression and information criteria were used for model development. Accuracy was compared with fibrosis models using time-dependent AUC analysis. During follow-up, LREs occurred in 52 (9%) and 11 (2.3%) patients in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, type 2 diabetes, albumin, bilirubin, platelet count, and international normalized ratio were independent predictors of LRE and were combined into a model [NAFLD outcomes score (NOS)]. The NOS model calibrated well [calibration slope, 0.99 (derivation), 0.98 (validation)] with excellent overall performance [integrated Brier score, 0.07 (derivation) and 0.01 (validation)]. A cutoff ≥1.3 identified subjects at a higher risk of LRE, (sub-HR 24.6, p < 0.001, 5-year cumulative incidence 38% vs 1.0%, respectively). The predictive accuracy at 5 and 10 years was excellent in both derivation (time-dependent AUC,0.92 and 0.90, respectively) and validation cohorts (time-dependent AUC,0.80 and 0.82, respectively). The NOS was more accurate than the fibrosis-4 or NAFLD fibrosis score for predicting LREs at 5 and 10 years ( p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The NOS model consists of readily available measures and has greater accuracy in predicting outcomes in patients with NAFLD than existing fibrosis models.

From NAFLD to HCC: Advances in noninvasive diagnosis

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has gradually become one of the major liver health problems in the world. The dynamic course of the disease goes through steatosis, inflammation, fibrosis, and carcinoma. Before progressing to carcinoma, timely and effective intervention will make the condition better, which highlights the importance of early diagnosis. With the further study of the biological mechanism in the pathogenesis and progression of NAFLD, some potential biomarkers have been discovered, and the possibility of their clinical application is gradually being discussed. At the same time, the progress of imaging technology and the emergence of new materials and methods also provide more possibilities for the diagnosis of NAFLD. This article reviews the diagnostic markers and advanced diagnostic methods of NAFLD in recent years.

Oesophageal varices predict complications in compensated advanced non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Background & Aims

We aimed to evaluate the impact of oesophageal varices (OV) and their evolution on the risk of complications of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) caused by non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We also assessed the accuracy of non-invasive scores for predicting the development of complications and for identifying patients at low risk of high-risk OV.

Methods

We performed a retrospective assessment of 629 patients with NAFLD-related cACLD who had baseline and follow-up oesophagogastroduodenoscopy and clinical follow-up to record decompensation, portal vein thrombosis (PVT), and hepatocellular carcinoma.

Results

Small and large OV were observed at baseline in 30 and 15.9% of patients, respectively. The 4-year incidence of OV from absence at baseline, and that of progression from small to large OV were 16.3 and 22.4%, respectively. Diabetes and a ≥5% increase in BMI were associated with OV progression. Multivariate Cox regression revealed that small (hazard ratio [HR] 2.24, 95% CI 1.47-3.41) and large (HR 3.86, 95% CI 2.34-6.39) OV were independently associated with decompensation. When considering OV status and trajectories, small (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.39-5.05) and large (HR 4.90, 95% CI 2.49-9.63) OV at baseline and/or follow-up were independently associated with decompensation compared with the absence of OV at baseline and/or follow-up. The presence of either small (HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.16-6.74) or large (HR 5.29, 95% CI 1.96-14.2) OV was also independently associated with incident PVT.

Conclusion

In NAFLD-related cACLD, the presence, severity, and evolution of OV stratify the risk of developing decompensation and PVT.

Impact and implications

Portal hypertension is the main driver of liver decompensation in chronic liver diseases, and its non-invasive markers can help risk prediction. The presence, severity, and progression of oesophageal varices stratify the risk of complications of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Easily obtainable laboratory values and liver stiffness measurement can identify patients at low risk for whom endoscopy may be withheld, and can also stratify the risk of liver-related complications.

Noninvasive risk assessment of hepatic decompensation in patients with hepatitis B virus-related liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hepatic decompensation is a major complication of liver cirrhosis. We validated the predictive performance of the newly proposed CHESS-ALARM model to predict hepatic decompensation in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis and compared it with other transient elastography (TE)-based models such as liver stiffness-spleen size-to-platelet (LSPS), portal hypertension (PH), varices risk scores, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), and albumin-bilirubin-fibrosis-4 (ALBI-FIB-4).

METHODS

Four hundred eighty-two patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis between 2006 and 2014 were recruited. Liver cirrhosis was clinically or morphologically defined. The predictive performance of the models was assessed using a time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC).

RESULTS

During the study period, 48 patients (10.0%) developed hepatic decompensation (median 93 months). The 1-year predictive performance of the LSPS model (tAUC = 0.8405) was higher than those of the PH model (tAUC = 0.8255), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC = 0.8168), ALBI (tAUC = 0.8153), CHESS-ALARM (tAUC = 0.8090), and variceal risk score (tAUC = 0.7990). The 3-year predictive performance of the LSPS model (tAUC = 0.8673) was higher than those of the PH risk score (tAUC = 0.8670), CHESS-ALARM (tAUC = 0.8329), variceal risk score (tAUC = 0.8290), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC = 0.7730), and ALBI (tAUC = 0.7451). The 5-year predictive performance of the PH risk score (tAUC = 0.8521) was higher than those of the LSPS (tAUC = 0.8465), varices risk score (tAUC = 0.8261), CHESS-ALARM (tAUC = 0.7971), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC = 0.7743), and ALBI (tAUC = 0.7541). However, there was no significant difference in the predictive performance among all models at 1, 3, and 5 years (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The CHESS-ALARM score was able to reliably predict hepatic decompensation in patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis and showed similar performance to the LSPS, PH, varices risk scores, ALBI, and ALBI-FIB-4.

The impact of concomitant metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease on adverse outcomes in patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis: a propensity score matching study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In cirrhotic patients, the clinical relevance of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is unclear. We aimed to research the relationship between MAFLD and adverse clinical outcomes in patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 439 patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis were enrolled. Abdominal MRI and computed tomography were used to calculate liver fat content in order to evaluate steatosis. The Kaplan-Meier method was implemented to generate survival curves. The independent risk factors for prognosis were identified by multiple Cox regression. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to reduce the influence of confounding factors. This study explored the relevance between MAFLD and mortality, first decompensation and further decompensation.

RESULTS

In our study, most patients were decompensated cirrhosis (n = 332, 75.6%) and the ratio of decompensated cirrhosis patients in non-MAFLD to MAFLD group was 199 : 133. Compared to the non-MAFLD group, patients with MAFLD had worse liver function which mainly reflected that there were more Child-Pugh C patients and higher model for end-stage liver disease score in the MAFLD group. A total of 207 adverse clinical events occurred in the total cohort during a median follow-up of 47 months, including 45 deaths, 28 hepatocellular carcinoma, 23 first decompensation and 111 further decompensation. Cox multivariate analysis showed that MAFLD was an independent risk factor for death [hazard ratio (HR) 1.931; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.019-3.660; P = 0.044 HR 2.645; 95% CI, 1.145-6.115; P = 0.023] and further decompensation (HR 1.859; 95% CI, 1.261-2.741; P = 0.002 HR 1.953; 95% CI, 1.195-3.192; P = 0.008) before and after PSM. In decompensated group with MAFLD, diabetes had a more significant effect on adverse prognosis than overweight or obesity and other metabolic risk factors.

CONCLUSION

In patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis, concomitant MAFLD can predict a higher risk of further decompensation and death among decompensated individuals. According to patients among MAFLD, diabetes may be a major factor in the occurrence of adverse clinical events.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Unique Entity or Part of the Metabolic Syndrome or Both

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a global public health problem. NAFLD is bidirectionally correlated with metabolic syndrome, which includes obesity, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia as major components. The presence of metabolic syndrome is associated with a higher prevalence of NAFLD, and vice versa. Also, the presence of metabolic syndrome in patients with NAFLD has been linked to a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases, liver-related complications, extrahepatic malignancies, and mortality, and possibly vice versa. Multidisciplinary care pathways including lifestyle modifications, control of metabolic risk, and potentially beneficial treatments are important to improve the clinical outcomes of patients with NAFLD.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Latin America and Australia

The epidemiologic and demographical features of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) vary significantly across countries and continents. In this review, we analyze current data regarding prevalence of NAFLD in Latin America and Caribbean and Australia and review some peculiarities found in these regions. We stress the need of greater awareness of NAFLD and the development of cost-effective risk stratification strategies and clinical care pathways of the disease. Finally, we highlight the need of effective public health policies to control the main risk factors for NAFLD.

Geographical similarity and differences in the burden and genetic predisposition of NAFLD

NAFLD has become a major public health problem for more than 2 decades with a growing prevalence in parallel with the epidemic of obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D). The disease burden of NAFLD differs across geographical regions and ethnicities. Variations in prevalence of metabolic diseases, extent of urban-rural divide, dietary habits, lifestyles, and the prevalence of NAFLD risk and protective alleles can contribute to such differences. The rise in NAFLD has led to a remarkable increase in the number of cases of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatic decompensation, and liver-related mortality related to NAFLD. Moreover, NAFLD is associated with multiple extrahepatic manifestations. Most of them are risk factors for the progression of liver fibrosis and thus worsen the prognosis of NAFLD. All these comorbidities and complications affect the quality of life in subjects with NAFLD. Given the huge and growing size of the population with NAFLD, it is expected that patients, healthcare systems, and the economy will suffer from the ongoing burden related to NAFLD. In this review, we examine the disease burden of NAFLD across geographical areas and ethnicities, together with the distribution of some well-known genetic variants for NAFLD. We also describe some special populations including patients with T2D, lean patients, the pediatric population, and patients with concomitant liver diseases. We discuss extrahepatic outcomes, patient-reported outcomes, and economic burden related to NAFLD.

High frequency of acute decompensation and cancer in patients with compensated cirrhosis due to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A retrospective cohort study

The natural history of compensated cirrhosis due to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has not been completely characterized. The aim of the present study was to assess the incidence and risk factors of acute decompensation of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and extrahepatic cancers. This was a multicenter, retrospective, cohort study including 449 patients with compensated cirrhosis due to NAFLD. We calculated cumulative incidences and used competitive risk analysis to determine the risk factors associated with decompensation and cancer development. Over a median of 39 months of follow-up, 124 patients (28%) presented acute decompensation. The most frequent decompensation was ascites (21%) followed by hepatic encephalopathy (15%), variceal bleeding (9%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (3%). Acute-on-chronic liver failure was diagnosed in 6% of patients during follow-up. Liver function parameters and specifically an albumin level below 40 g/L were independently associated with an increased risk of decompensation. The presence of ischemic heart disease was independently associated with acute decompensation. Seventy-eight patients (18%) developed hepatocellular carcinoma or extrahepatic cancers during follow-up (51 and 27, respectively). Conclusion: Patients with compensated cirrhosis due to NAFLD are at high risk of severe liver complications, such as the development of acute decompensation, in a relative short follow-up time. This population is at high risk of hepatic and extrahepatic cancers.

A Novel SAVE Score to Stratify Decompensation Risk in Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease (CHESS2102): An International Multicenter Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

In patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), the invasive measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient is the best predictor of hepatic decompensation. This study aimed at developing an alternative risk prediction model to provide a decompensation risk assessment in cACLD.

METHODS

Patients with cACLD were retrospectively included from 9 international centers within the Portal Hypertension Alliance in China (CHESS) network. Baseline variables from a Japanese cohort of 197 patients with cACLD were examined and fitted a Cox hazard regression model to develop a specific score for predicting hepatic decompensation. The novel score was validated in an external cohort (n = 770) from 5 centers in China, Singapore, Korea, and Egypt, and was further assessed for the ability of predicting clinically significant portal hypertension in a hepatic venous pressure gradient cohort (n = 285).

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, independent predictors of hepatic decompensation were identified including Stiffness of liver, Albumin, Varices, and platElets and fitted to develop the novel score, termed "SAVE" score. This score performed significantly better (all P < 0.05) than other assessed methods with a time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-0.94) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.73-0.92) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The decompensation risk was best stratified by the cutoff values at -6 and -4.5. The 5-year cumulative incidences of decompensation were 0%, 24.9%, and 69.0% in the low-risk, middle-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively ( P < 0.001). The SAVE score also accurately predicted clinically significant portal hypertension (AUC, 0.85 95% CI: 0.80-0.90).

DISCUSSION

The SAVE score can be readily incorporated into clinical practice to accurately predict the individual risk of hepatic decompensation in cACLD.

CHESS-ALARM score to stratify decompensation risk in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients: An international multicenter study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

A combination of platelet and elastography (PE criteria) was proposed to identify compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients at risk of liver decompensation. We aim to validate and refine PE criteria by developing a new predictive score to predict decompensation in Asian cACLD patients.

METHODS

An international cohort of 633 cACLD patients with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and esophagogastroduodenoscopy performed were included. We validated PE criteria to predict first liver decompensation using competing risk analysis, with death and hepatocellular carcinoma as competing events. We developed a predictive model using proportional subdistribution hazard regression. Prognostic accuracy was compared with the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), and ALBI-FIB-4 score using time-dependent area under operative characteristic curve (tAUC).

RESULTS

Sixty patients developed decompensation over the median follow-up of 39 months. Favorable Baveno VI status ruled out cACLD patients at risk of liver decompensation. LSM > 25 kPa was suboptimal to predict cACLD patients who will develop liver decompensation. We developed CHESS-ALARM score by incorporating age, platelet, and gender into LSM. CHESS-ALARM score (tAUC = 0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-0.94) has significantly higher accuracy than MELD (tAUC: 0.61), ALBI (tAUC: 0.62), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC: 0.70), and LSM > 25 kPa (tAUC: 0.54) to predict liver decompensation at 5 years (P < 0.05 for all). Patients with CHESS-ALARM score ≥ -0.37 had an 11-fold higher risk of decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio = 11.2, 95% CI: 5.1-24.5).

CONCLUSION

CHESS-ALARM score can be readily incorporated into clinical practice of cACLD patients to estimate individual risk of liver decompensation; however, more data are required in morbidly obese cACLD patients of nonviral etiology.

A Genetic and Metabolic Staging System for Predicting the Outcome of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging cause of liver-related events (LREs). Here, we have assessed the ability of a composite score based on clinical features, metabolic comorbidities, and genetic variants to predict LREs. A total of 546 consecutive patients with NAFLD were recruited and stratified according to the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index. LREs were defined as occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation. Cox regression multivariate analysis was used to identify baseline variables associated with LREs. The UK Biobank was used as the validation cohort, and severe liver disease (incidence of cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, and/or liver transplantation) was used as the outcome. LREs were experienced by 58 patients, only one of whom was in the cohort of patients with a FIB-4 score < 1.3. Multivariate Cox regression analysis of 229 patients with a FIB-4 score ≥ 1.3 highlighted clinical variables independently associated with the development of LREs, including older age, low platelet count, low albumin, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, certain genetic factors, and interactions between genetic factors and sex or diabetes. The area under the curve (AUC) for the model was 0.87 at 1, 3, and 5 years. Our novel Genetic and Metabolic Staging (GEMS) scoring system was derived from the Cox model linear predictor, ranked from 0 to 10, and categorized into five classes (0-5, 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, and 8-10). The risk of LREs increased from 4% in patients in the best class (GEMS score 0-5) to 91% in the worst (GEMS score 8-10). GEMS score was associated with incident severe liver disease in the study population (hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.48-1.65; P < 0.001) as well as in the UK Biobank cohort where AUCs for prediction of severe liver disease at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.70, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively. Conclusion: The novel GEMS scoring system has an adequate ability to predict the outcome of patients with NAFLD.

A Novel Noninvasive Diagnostic Model of HBV-Related Inflammation in Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection Patients With Concurrent Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection (CBI) with concurrent nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming increasingly common in clinical practice, and it is quite important to identify the etiology when hepatitis occurs. A noninvasive diagnostic model was constructed to identify patients who need antihepatitis B virus (HBV) therapies [histologic activity index (HAI) ≥ 4] in patients with CBI with concurrent NAFLD by analyzing clinical routine parameters.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

In total, 303 out of 502 patients with CBI with concurrent NAFLD proven by liver biopsy from January 2017 to December 2020 in the Tianjin Second People's Hospital were enrolled and they were divided into the HBV-related inflammation (HBV-I) group (HAI ≥ 4,176 cases) and the non-HBV-I group (HAI < 4,127 cases) according to hepatic pathology. The univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed on the two groups of patients, and then the HBV-I model of patients with CBI with concurrent NAFLD was constructed. The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were used to evaluate the parameters of the regression formula. Another 115 patients with CBI with concurrent NAFLD proven by liver biopsy from January 2021 to January 2022 were enrolled as the validation group. There were some statistical differences in demographic data, biochemical indicators, immune function, thyroid function, virology indicator, and blood routine indicators between the two groups (P < 0.05) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in the HBV-I group was significantly higher than those in the non-HBV-I group (P < 0.05). While controlled attenuation parameters (CAP) in the HBV-I group were lower than those in the non-HBV-I group (P < 0.05); (2) We developed a novel model by logistic regression analysis: HBV-I = -0.020 × CAP + 0.424 × LSM + 0.376 × lg (HBV DNA) + 0.049 × aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and the accuracy rate was 82.5%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) is 0.907, the cutoff value is 0.671, the sensitivity is 89.30%, the specificity is 77.80%, the positive predictive value is 90.34%, and the negative predictive value is 81.89%; (3) The AUROC of HBV-I in the validation group was 0.871 and the overall accuracy rate is 86.96%.

CONCLUSION

Our novel model HBV-I [combining CAP, LSM, lg (HBV DNA), and AST] shows promising utility for predicting HBV-I in patients with CBI with concurrent NAFLD with high sensitivity, accuracy, and repeatability, which may contribute to clinical application.

Noninvasive assessment of fibrosis among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD]

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD] is a condition affecting a vast portion of the worldwide population. The presence of underlying fibrosis is the strongest predictor of long-term outcomes and mortality, with a graduated increase in liver-related morbidity and mortality with progression from moderate fibrosis tobiomarkers targeting collagen turnover and extracellular matrix remodeling FibroTest FAST™, Velacur™, MRE]. While many of these provide a robust, stand alone value, the accuracy of these noninvasive tests markedly increase when used in combination or in sequential order with one another. There is not a uniform consensus demonstrating superiority of any specific test. Given the growing role and accuracy of these tests, they should have an expanding role in the assessment of fibrosis across this patient population and obviate the need for liver biopsy in a large portion of patients. Future clinical studies should focus on validating these novel biomarkers, as well as optimizing the sequential or algorithmic testing when combining these noninvasive tests.

U-shaped relationship between urea level and hepatic decompensation in chronic liver diseases

BACKGROUND/AIMS

We aimed to determine the association between blood urea level and incident cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic liver disease (CLD) patients.

METHODS

The association between blood urea level and liver fibrosis/liver-related events were evaluated on continuous scale with restricted cubic spline curves based on generalized additive model or Cox proportional hazards models. Then, the above associations were evaluated by urea level within intervals.

RESULTS

Among 4,282 patients who had undergone liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography, baseline urea level had a U-shaped association with LSM and hepatic decompensation development after a median follow-up of 5.5 years. Compared to patients with urea of 3.6-9.9 mmol/L, those with urea ≤3.5 mmol/L (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.68-10.24) and ≥10 mmol/L (aHR, 5.22; 95% CI, 1.86-14.67) had higher risk of hepatic decompensation. Patients with urea ≤3.5 mmol/L also had higher risk of incident cirrhosis (aHR, 3.24; 95% CI, 1.50-6.98). The association between low urea level and incident cirrhosis and hepatic decompensation was consistently observed in subgroups by age, gender, albumin level, and comorbidities. The U-shaped relationship between urea level and LSM was validated in another population screening study (n=917). Likewise, urea ≤3.5 mmol/L was associated with a higher risk of incident cirrhosis in a territory-wide cohort of 12,476 patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease at a median follow-up of 9.9 years (aHR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.57).

CONCLUSION

We identified a U-shaped relationship between the urea level and liver fibrosis/incident cirrhosis/hepatic decompensation in patients with CLD.