Outbreaks by canopy-feeding geometrid moth cause state-dependent shifts in understorey plant communities

Herbivore diversity effects on Arctic tundra ecosystems: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Northern ecosystems are strongly influenced by herbivores that differ in their impacts on the ecosystem. Yet the role of herbivore diversity in shaping the structure and functioning of tundra ecosystems has been overlooked. With climate and land-use changes causing rapid shifts in Arctic species assemblages, a better understanding of the consequences of herbivore diversity changes for tundra ecosystem functioning is urgently needed. This systematic review synthesizes available evidence on the effects of herbivore diversity on different processes, functions, and properties of tundra ecosystems.

METHODS

Following a published protocol, our systematic review combined primary field studies retrieved from bibliographic databases, search engines and specialist websites that compared tundra ecosystem responses to different levels of vertebrate and invertebrate herbivore diversity. We used the number of functional groups of herbivores (i.e., functional group richness) as a measure of the diversity of the herbivore assemblage. We screened titles, abstracts, and full texts of studies using pre-defined eligibility criteria. We critically appraised the validity of the studies, tested the influence of different moderators, and conducted sensitivity analyses. Quantitative synthesis (i.e., calculation of effect sizes) was performed for ecosystem responses reported by at least five articles and meta-regressions including the effects of potential modifiers for those reported by at least 10 articles.

REVIEW FINDINGS

The literature searches retrieved 5944 articles. After screening titles, abstracts, and full texts, 201 articles including 3713 studies (i.e., individual comparisons) were deemed relevant for the systematic review, with 2844 of these studies included in quantitative syntheses. The available evidence base on the effects of herbivore diversity on tundra ecosystems is concentrated around well-established research locations and focuses mainly on the impacts of vertebrate herbivores on vegetation. Overall, greater herbivore diversity led to increased abundance of feeding marks by herbivores and soil temperature, and to reduced total abundance of plants, graminoids, forbs, and litter, plant leaf size, plant height, and moss depth, but the effects of herbivore diversity were difficult to tease apart from those of excluding vertebrate herbivores. The effects of different functional groups of herbivores on graminoid and lichen abundance compensated each other, leading to no net effects when herbivore effects were combined. In turn, smaller herbivores and large-bodied herbivores only reduced plant height when occurring together but not when occurring separately. Greater herbivore diversity increased plant diversity in graminoid tundra but not in other habitat types.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review underscores the importance of herbivore diversity in shaping the structure and function of Arctic ecosystems, with different functional groups of herbivores exerting additive or compensatory effects that can be modulated by environmental conditions. Still, many challenges remain to fully understand the complex impacts of herbivore diversity on tundra ecosystems. Future studies should explicitly address the role of herbivore diversity beyond presence-absence, targeting a broader range of ecosystem responses and explicitly including invertebrate herbivores. A better understanding of the role of herbivore diversity will enhance our ability to predict whether and where shifts in herbivore assemblages might mitigate or further amplify the impacts of environmental change on Arctic ecosystems.

Small herbivores with big impacts: Tundra voles (Microtus oeconomus) alter post-fire ecosystem dynamics

Fire is an important ecological disturbance that can reset ecosystems and initiate changes in plant community composition, ecosystem biogeochemistry, and primary productivity. Since herbivores rely on primary producers for food, changes in vegetation may alter plant-herbivore interactions with important - but often unexplored - feedbacks to ecosystems. Here we examined the impact of post-fire changes in plant community composition and structure on habitat suitability and rodent herbivore activity in response to a large, severe, and unprecedented fire in northern Alaskan tundra. In moist acidic tundra where the fire occurred, tundra voles (Microtus oeconomus) are the dominant herbivore and rely on the tussock forming sedge Eriophorum vaginatum for both food and nesting material. Seven to twelve years after the fire, tundra voles were 10 times more abundant at the burned site compared to nearby unburned tundra. Fire increased habitat suitability for voles by increasing plant productivity and biomass, food quality, and cover through both taller vegetation and increased microtopography. As a result of elevated vole abundance, Eriophorum mortality caused by vole herbivory was two orders of magnitude higher than natural mortality and approached the magnitude of the mortality rate resulting directly from the fire. These findings suggest that post-fire increases in herbivore pressure on Eriophorum could, in turn, disrupt graminoid recovery and enhance shrub encroachment. Tundra state transitions from graminoid to shrub dominated are also evident following other disturbances and fertilization experiments, suggesting that as Arctic temperatures rise, greater available nutrients and increased frequencies of large-scale disturbances may also alter plant-animal interactions with cascading impacts on plant communities and ecosystem function.

Living, dead, and absent trees-How do moth outbreaks shape small-scale patterns of soil organic matter stocks and dynamics at the Subarctic mountain birch treeline?

Mountain birch forests (Betula pubescens Ehrh. ssp. czerepanovii) at the subarctic treeline not only benefit from global warming, but are also increasingly affected by caterpillar outbreaks from foliage-feeding geometrid moths. Both of these factors have unknown consequences on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and biogeochemical cycles. We measured SOC stocks down to the bedrock under living trees and under two stages of dead trees (12 and 55 years since moth outbreak) and treeless tundra in northern Finland. We also measured in-situ soil respiration, potential SOC decomposability, biological (enzyme activities and microbial biomass), and chemical (N, mineral N, and pH) soil properties. SOC stocks were significantly higher under living trees (4.1 ± 2.1 kg m²) than in the treeless tundra (2.4 ± 0.6 kg m²), and remained at an elevated level even 12 (3.7 ± 1.7 kg m²) and 55 years (4.9 ± 3.0 kg m²) after tree death. Effects of tree status on SOC stocks decreased with increasing distance from the tree and with increasing depth, that is, a significant effect of tree status was found in the organic layer, but not in mineral soil. Soil under living trees was characterized by higher mineral N contents, microbial biomass, microbial activity, and soil respiration compared with the treeless tundra; soils under dead trees were intermediate between these two. The results suggest accelerated organic matter turnover under living trees but a positive net effect on SOC stocks. Slowed organic matter turnover and continuous supply of deadwood may explain why SOC stocks remained elevated under dead trees, despite the heavy decrease in aboveground C stocks. We conclude that the increased occurrence of moth damage with climate change would have minor effects on SOC stocks, but ultimately decrease ecosystem C stocks (49% within 55 years in this area), if the mountain birch forests will not be able to recover from the outbreaks.

Cascading effects of moth outbreaks on subarctic soil food webs

The increasing severity and frequency of natural disturbances requires a better understanding of their effects on all compartments of biodiversity. In Northern Fennoscandia, recent large-scale moth outbreaks have led to an abrupt change in plant communities from birch forests dominated by dwarf shrubs to grass-dominated systems. However, the indirect effects on the belowground compartment remained unclear. Here, we combined eDNA surveys of multiple trophic groups with network analyses to demonstrate that moth defoliation has far-reaching consequences on soil food webs. Following this disturbance, diversity and relative abundance of certain trophic groups declined (e.g., ectomycorrhizal fungi), while many others expanded (e.g., bacterivores and omnivores) making soil food webs more diverse and structurally different. Overall, the direct and indirect consequences of moth outbreaks increased belowground diversity at different trophic levels. Our results highlight that a holistic view of ecosystems improves our understanding of cascading effects of major disturbances on soil food webs.

Ecological traps: evidence of a fitness cost in a cavity-nesting bird

Habitat quality has direct effects on the evolutionary fitness of breeding organisms, which is why it is believed that animals tend to have an evolved preference for the best possible habitats. However, some animals may mistakenly choose to reproduce in habitats that decrease their fitness, resulting in 'ecological traps'. In this study, we tested whether great tits (Parus major) attracted to areas affected by outbreaks of the great web-spinning sawfly (Acantholyda posticalis) had fitness detriments characteristic of ecological traps. Sawfly larvae consume pine needles, which decreases resource availability for birds co-habiting the forest. Using artificial nesting sites, we found that great tits inhabiting areas of sawfly outbreaks had similar clutch sizes as tits breeding in healthy forest patches; however, the fledgling number was significantly lower, and fledgling condition was worse in the damaged forests. While moth larvae are the most important food for bird nestlings, the forest patches damaged by sawflies had lower larval biomass. Although most ecological traps occur in environments altered by humans, this study shows that pest insects can lower habitat quality, forming ecological traps. Our results indicate that attracting cavity-nesting birds should be done with caution because it may negatively impact birds' nutritional status and reproductive fitness.

Multidimensional analysis of global climate change: a review

Even though climate change involves much more than warming, it is the name given to a set of physical phenomena. It is a long-term change in weather patterns that characterises different regions of the world. The warming effect in the earth's atmosphere has dramatically increased through the influence of some heat-taping gases emitted by various human activities, especially fossil fuel burning. The more the input of such gases, the more will be the warming effect in the coming times. Global climate change is already visible in various parts of the larger ecosystems like forests, fisheries, biodiversity, and agriculture; however, it is now also influencing the supply of freshwater, human health, and well-being. This paper reviews climate change drivers, its global scenario, major global events, and assessing climate change impacts. The most daunting problem of economic and ecological risks, along with the threats to humanity, is also discussed. The paper further reviews the species' vulnerability to climate change and the heat waves and human migration vis-à-vis climate change. Climate change politics and coverage of climate change episodes in mass media is the special focus of this review that concludes with a few mitigation measures.

End-user involvement to improve predictions and management of populations with complex dynamics and multiple drivers

Sustainable management of wildlife populations can be aided by building models that both identify current drivers of natural dynamics and provide near-term predictions of future states. We employed a Strategic Foresight Protocol (SFP) involving stakeholders to decide the purpose and structure of a dynamic state-space model for the population dynamics of the Willow Ptarmigan, a popular game species in Norway. Based on local knowledge of stakeholders, it was decided that the model should include food web interactions and climatic drivers to provide explanatory predictions. Modeling confirmed observations from stakeholders that climate change impacts Ptarmigan populations negatively through intensified outbreaks of insect defoliators and later onset of winter. Stakeholders also decided that the model should provide anticipatory predictions. The ability to forecast population density ahead of the harvest season was valued by the stakeholders as it provides the management extra time to consider appropriate harvest regulations and communicate with hunters prior to the hunting season. Overall, exploring potential drivers and predicting short-term future states, facilitate collaborative learning and refined data collection, monitoring designs, and management priorities. Our experience from adapting a SFP to a management target with inherently complex dynamics and drivers of environmental change, is that an open, flexible, and iterative process, rather than a rigid step-wise protocol, facilitates rapid learning, trust, and legitimacy.

Impact of Multiple Ecological Stressors on a Sub-Arctic Ecosystem: No Interaction Between Extreme Winter Warming Events, Nitrogen Addition and Grazing

Climate change is one of many ongoing human-induced environmental changes, but few studies consider interactive effects between multiple anthropogenic disturbances. In coastal sub-arctic heathland, we quantified the impact of a factorial design simulating extreme winter warming (WW) events (7 days at 6-7°C) combined with episodic summer nitrogen (+N) depositions (5 kg N ha-1) on plant winter physiology, plant community composition and ecosystem CO2 fluxes of an Empetrum nigrum dominated heathland during 3 consecutive years in northern Norway. We expected that the +N would exacerbate any stress effects caused by the WW treatment. During WW events, ecosystem respiration doubled, leaf respiration declined (-58%), efficiency of Photosystem II (Fv/Fm) increased (between 26 and 88%), while cell membrane fatty acids showed strong compositional changes as a result of the warming and freezing. In particular, longer fatty acid chains increased as a result of WW events, and eicosadienoic acid (C20:2) was lower when plants were exposed to the combination of WW and +N. A larval outbreak of geometrid moths (Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata) following the first WW led to a near-complete leaf defoliation of the dominant dwarf shrubs E. nigrum (-87%) and Vaccinium myrtillus (-81%) across all experimental plots. Leaf emergence timing, plant biomass or composition, NDVI and growing season ecosystem CO2 fluxes were unresponsive to the WW and +N treatments. The limited plant community response reflected the relative mild winter freezing temperatures (-6.6°C to -11.8°C) recorded after the WW events, and that the grazing pressure probably overshadowed any potential treatment effects. The grazing pressure and WW both induce damage to the evergreen shrubs and their combination should therefore be even stronger. In addition, +N could have exacerbated the impact of both extreme events, but the ecosystem responses did not support this. Therefore, our results indicate that these sub-arctic Empetrum-dominated ecosystems are highly resilient and that their responses may be limited to the event with the strongest impact.

Changes in species abundance after seven years of elevated atmospheric CO2 and warming in a Subarctic birch forest understorey, as modified by rodent and moth outbreaks

A seven-year long, two-factorial experiment using elevated temperatures (5 °C) and CO2 (concentration doubled compared to ambient conditions) designed to test the effects of global climate change on plant community composition was set up in a Subarctic ecosystem in northernmost Sweden. Using point-frequency analyses in permanent plots, an increased abundance of the deciduous Vaccinium myrtillus, the evergreens V. vitis-idaea and Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum and the grass Avenella flexuosa was found in plots with elevated temperatures. We also observed a possibly transient community shift in the warmed plots, from the vegetation being dominated by the deciduous V. myrtillus to the evergreen V. vitis-idaea. This happened as a combined effect of V. myrtillus being heavily grazed during two events of herbivore attack-one vole outbreak (Clethrionomys rufocanus) followed by a more severe moth (Epirrita autumnata) outbreak that lasted for two growing seasons-producing a window of opportunity for V. vitis-idaea to utilize the extra light available as the abundance of V. myrtillus decreased, while at the same time benefitting from the increased growth in the warmed plots. Even though the effect of the herbivore attacks did not differ between treatments they may have obscured any additional treatment effects. This long-term study highlights that also the effects of stochastic herbivory events need to be accounted for when predicting future plant community changes.

Understanding the drivers of extensive plant damage in boreal and Arctic ecosystems: Insights from field surveys in the aftermath of damage

The exact cause of population dieback in nature is often challenging to identify retrospectively. Plant research in northern regions has in recent decades been largely focussed on the opposite trend, namely increasing populations and higher productivity. However, a recent unexpected decline in remotely-sensed estimates of terrestrial Arctic primary productivity suggests that warmer northern lands do not necessarily result in higher productivity. As large-scale plant dieback may become more frequent at high northern latitudes with increasing frequency of extreme events, understanding the drivers of plant dieback is especially urgent. Here, we report on recent extensive damage to dominant, short, perennial heath and tundra plant populations in boreal and Arctic Norway, and assess the potential drivers of this damage. In the High-Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, we recorded that 8-50% of Cassiope tetragona and Dryas octopetala shoots were dead, and that the ratios of dead shoots increased from 2014 to 2015. In boreal Norway, 38-63% of Calluna vulgaris shoots were dead, while Vaccinium myrtillus had damage to 91% of shoots in forested sites, but was healthy in non-forested sites. Analyses of numerous sources of environmental information clearly point towards a winter climate-related reason for damage to three of these four species. In Svalbard, the winters of 2011/12 and 2014/15 were documented to be unusually severe, i.e. insulation from ambient temperature fluctuation by snow was largely absent, and ground-ice enforced additional stress. In boreal Norway, the 2013/14 winter had a long period with very little snow combined with extremely low precipitation rates, something which resulted in frost drought of uncovered Calluna plants. However, extensive outbreaks of a leaf-defoliating geometrid moth were identified as the driver of Vaccinium mortality. These results suggest that weather and biotic extreme events potentially have strong impacts on the vegetation state of northern lands.

Warming, shading and a moth outbreak reduce tundra carbon sink strength dramatically by changing plant cover and soil microbial activity

Future increases in temperature and cloud cover will alter plant growth and decomposition of the large carbon pools stored in Arctic soils. A better understanding of interactions between above- and belowground processes and communities of plants and microorganisms is essential for predicting Arctic ecosystem responses to climate change. We measured ecosystem CO2 fluxes during the growing season for seven years in a dwarf-shrub tundra in West Greenland manipulated with warming and shading and experiencing a natural larvae outbreak. Vegetation composition, soil fungal community composition, microbial activity, and nutrient availability were analyzed after six years of treatment. Warming and shading altered the plant community, reduced plant CO2 uptake, and changed fungal community composition. Ecosystem carbon accumulation decreased during the growing season by 61% in shaded plots and 51% in warmed plots. Also, plant recovery was reduced in both manipulations following the larvae outbreak during the fifth treatment year. The reduced plant recovery in manipulated plots following the larvae outbreak suggests that climate change may increase tundra ecosystem sensitivity to disturbances. Also, plant community changes mediated via reduced light and reduced water availability due to increased temperature can strongly lower the carbon sink strength of tundra ecosystems.

Larval outbreaks in West Greenland: Instant and subsequent effects on tundra ecosystem productivity and CO2 exchange

Insect outbreaks can have important consequences for tundra ecosystems. In this study, we synthesise available information on outbreaks of larvae of the noctuid moth Eurois occulta in Greenland. Based on an extensive dataset from a monitoring programme in Kobbefjord, West Greenland, we demonstrate effects of a larval outbreak in 2011 on vegetation productivity and CO₂ exchange. We estimate a decreased carbon (C) sink strength in the order of 118-143 g C m^-2, corresponding to 1210-1470 tonnes C at the Kobbefjord catchment scale. The decreased C sink was, however, counteracted the following years by increased primary production, probably facilitated by the larval outbreak increasing nutrient turnover rates. Furthermore, we demonstrate for the first time in tundra ecosystems, the potential for using remote sensing to detect and map insect outbreak events.

Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change

Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may have clear impacts, more work is needed to understand their net effect on Arctic ecosystems.

Identification and Evaluation of 21 Novel Microsatellite Markers from the Autumnal Moth (Epirrita autumnata) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)

The autumnal moth (Epirrita autumnata) is a cyclically outbreaking forest Lepidoptera with circumpolar distribution and substantial impact on Northern ecosystems. We have isolated 21 microsatellites from the species to facilitate population genetic studies of population cycles, outbreaks, and crashes. First, PCR primers and PCR conditions were developed to amplify 19 trinucleotide loci and two tetranucleotide loci in six multiplex PCR approaches and then analyzed for species specificity, sensitivity and precision. Twelve of the loci showed simple tandem repeat array structures while nine loci showed imperfect repeat structures, and repeat numbers varied in our material between six and 15. The application in population genetics for all the 21 microsatellites were further validated in 48 autumnal moths sampled from Northern Norway, and allelic variation was detected in 19 loci. The detected numbers of alleles per locus ranged from two to 13, and the observed and expected heterozygosities varied from 0.04 to 0.69 and 0.04 to 0.79, respectively. Evidence for linkage disequilibrium was found for six loci as well as indication of one null allele. We find that these novel microsatellites and their multiplex-PCR assays are suitable for further research on fine- and large-scale population-genetic studies of Epirrita autumnata.

Sámi reindeer herders' perspective on herbivory of subarctic mountain birch forests by geometrid moths and reindeer: a case study from northernmost Finland

Introduction

Geometrid moths and semi-domesticated reindeer are both herbivores which feed on birch leaves in the subarctic mountain birch forests in northern Fennoscandia. The caterpillars of autumnal and winter moths have episodic outbreaks, which can occasionally lead to extensive defoliation of birch forests. Earlier studies have shown that reindeer have a negative effect on the regeneration of defoliated birches by grazing and browsing their seedlings and sprouts.

Case description

We interviewed 15 reindeer herders in the Kaldoaivi and Paistunturi herding co-operative in northernmost Finland in order to analyse their past, present and future views on the behaviour of moths and the growth of mountain birches. We investigate the behaviour of the two herbivores by combining the indigenous knowledge (IK) of Sámi herders with the results of relevant studies in biology and anthropology, applying niche construction theory (NCT) in doing so.

Discussion and evaluation

In the first stage, the niche constructors (moths, reindeer, herders, mountain birch and other organisms) are looked upon as “equal constructors” of a shared niche. As changes unfold in their niche, their role changes from that of constructor to key constructor. The role and importance of niche constructors were different when nomadic pasture rotation was used than they are today under the herding co-operative system. Niche construction faced its most radical and permanent negative changes during the border closures that took place over the latter half of the 19^th century. The large-scale nomadic life among the Sámi herders, who migrated between Finland and Norway, came to an end. This phase was followed by stationary herding, which diminished the possibilities of reindeer to look for various environmental affordances. Difficult snow conditions or birch defoliation caused by moth outbreaks made the situation worse than before. Eventually reindeer became key constructors, together with moth larvae, leading to negative ecological inheritance that forced herders to use new, adaptive herding practices.

Conclusions

Both the scientific data and the IK of herders highlight the roles of reindeer and herders as continuous key constructors of the focal niche, one which stands to be modified in more heterogenic ways than earlier due to global warming and hence will result in new ecological inheritance.

Numerical responses of saproxylic beetles to rapid increases in dead wood availability following geometrid moth outbreaks in sub-arctic mountain birch forest

Saproxylic insects play an important part in decomposing dead wood in healthy forest ecosystems, but little is known about their role in the aftermath of large-scale forest mortality caused by pest insect outbreaks. We used window traps to study short-term changes in the abundance and community structure of saproxylic beetles following extensive mortality of mountain birch in sub-arctic northern Norway caused by an outbreak of geometrid moths. Three to five years after the outbreak, the proportion of obligate saproxylic individuals in the beetle community was roughly 10% higher in forest damaged by the outbreak than in undamaged forest. This was mainly due to two early-successional saproxylic beetle species. Facultative saproxylic beetles showed no consistent differences between damaged and undamaged forest. These findings would suggest a weak numerical response of the saproxylic beetle community to the dead wood left by the outbreak. We suggest that species-specific preferences for certain wood decay stages may limit the number of saproxylic species that respond numerically to an outbreak at a particular time, and that increases in responding species may be constrained by limitations to the amount of dead wood that can be exploited within a given timeframe (i.e. satiation effects). Low diversity of beetle species or slow development of larvae in our cold sub-arctic study region may also limit numerical responses. Our study suggests that saproxylic beetles, owing to weak numerical responses, may so far have played a minor role in decomposing the vast quantities of dead wood left by the moth outbreak.

Complex biotic interactions drive long-term vegetation dynamics in a subarctic ecosystem

Predicting impacts of global warming requires understanding of the extent to which plant biomass and production are controlled by bottom-up and top-down drivers. By annually monitoring community composition in grazed control plots and herbivore-free exclosures at an Arctic location for 15 years, we detected multiple biotic interactions. Regular rodent cycles acted as pulses driving synchronous fluctuations in the biomass of field-layer vegetation; reindeer influenced the biomass of taller shrubs, and the abundance of plant pathogenic fungi increased when densities of their host plants increased in exclosures. Two outbreaks of geometrid moths occurred during the study period, with contrasting effects on the field layer: one in 2004 had marginal effects, while one in 2012 severely reduced biomass in the control plots and eliminated biomass that had accumulated over 15 years in the exclosures. The latter was followed by a dramatic decline of the dominant understory dwarf-shrub Empetrum hermaphroditum, driven by an interaction between moth herbivory on top buds and leaves, and increased disease severity of a pathogenic fungus. We show that the climate has important direct and indirect effects on all these biotic interactions. We conclude that long time series are essential to identify key biotic interactions in ecosystems, since their importance will be influenced by climatic conditions, and that manipulative treatments are needed in order to obtain the mechanistic understanding needed for robust predictions of future ecosystem changes and their feedback effects.