The effect of water turbidity on the near-surface water temperature of larval habitats of the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae

Enhancing environmental data imputation: A physically-constrained machine learning framework

In water resources management, new computational capabilities have made it possible to develop integrated models to jointly analyze climatic conditions and water quantity/quality of the entire watershed system. Although the value of this integrated approach has been demonstrated so far, the limited availability of field data may hinder its applicability by causing high uncertainty in the model response. In this context, before collecting additional data, it is recommended first to recognize what improvement in model performance would occur if all available records could be well exploited. This work proposes a novel machine learning framework with physical constraints capable of successfully imputing a high percentage of missing data belonging to several environmental domains (meteorology, water quantity, water quality), yielding satisfactory results. In particular, the minimum NSE computed for meteorologic variables is 0.72. For hydrometric variables, NSE is always >0.97. More than 78 % of the physical-water-quality variables is characterized by NSE > 0.45, and >66 % of the chemical-water quality variables reaches NSE > 0.35. This work's results demonstrate the proposed framework's effectiveness as a data augmentation tool to improve the performance of integrated environmental modeling.

Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology

Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vector breeding. Previous Africa-wide assessments have tended to solely represent surface water using precipitation, ignoring many important hydrological processes. Here, we applied a validated and weighted ensemble of global hydrological and climate models to estimate present and future areas of hydroclimatic suitability for malaria transmission. With explicit surface water representation, we predict a net decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 onward, greater sensitivity to future greenhouse gas emissions, and different, more complex, malaria transmission patterns. Areas of malaria transmission that are projected to change are smaller than those estimated by precipitation-based estimates but are associated with greater changes in transmission season lengths.

Monitoring of wetland turbidity using multi-temporal Landsat-8 and Landsat-9 satellite imagery in the Bisalpur wetland, Rajasthan, India

Satellite imagery has emerged as the predominant method for performing spatial and temporal water quality analyses on a global scale. This study employs remote sensing techniques to monitor the water quality of the Bisalpur wetland during both the pre and post-monsoon seasons in 2013 and 2022. The study aims to investigate the prospective use of Landsat-8 (L8) and Landsat-9 (L9) data acquired from the Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) for the temporal monitoring of turbidity. Concurrently, the study examines the relationship of turbidity with water surface temperature (WST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations. We utilized visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands to conduct a single-band spectral response analysis of wetland turbidity. The results reveal a notable increase in turbidity concentration in May 2022, as this timeframe recorded the highest reflectance (0.28) in the NIR band. Additionally, the normalized difference turbidity index (NDTI) formula was used to assess the overall turbidity levels in the wetland. The results indicated that the highest concentration was observed in May 2013, with a value of 0.37, while the second-highest concentration was recorded in May 2022, with a value of 0.25. The WST was calculated using thermal band-10 in conjunction with Chlorophyll-a, utilizing the normalized difference chlorophyll index (NDCI). The regression analysis shows a positive correlation between turbidity and WST, as indicated by R2 values of 0.41 in May 2013 and 0.40 in May 2022. Furthermore, a robust positive relationship exists between turbidity and Chl-a, with a high R2 value of 0.71 in May 2022. These findings emphasize the efficacy of the L8 and L9 datasets for conducting temporal analyses of wetland turbidity, WST, and Chl-a. Additionally, this research underscores the critical role of satellite imagery in assessing and managing water quality, particularly in situations where in-situ data is lacking.

Anopheles larval habitats seasonality and environmental factors affecting larval abundance and distribution in Arjo-Didessa sugar cane plantation, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Water resource development projects are essential for increasing agricultural productivity and ensuring food security. However, these activities require the modification of pre-existing environmental settings, which may alter mosquito larval habitat availability and seasonality. The intensive utilization of current adult vector control tools results in insecticide resistance among the main vectors. When coupled with behavioural resistances, a shift in malaria vector feeding and resting behaviours could compromise the effectiveness of the current adult vector control strategies. Thus, it is important to look for new or alternative vector control interventions for immatures to complement adult control by focusing on different larval habitats and their seasonal availability. Thus, this study investigated larval habitat seasonality and seasonal larval abundance and distribution in irrigated sugar cane plantation settings in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Anopheles mosquito larval habitats were surveyed and visited twice a month for a period of 14 months. Anopheline larvae and pupae were collected, reared, and fed finely ground fish food. Adults were provided with sucrose solution and kept under standard conditions. Female Anopheles mosquitoes were identified morphologically and using a species-specific PCR assay. Environmental parameters, which include habitats' physico-chemical characteristics, were assessed. Larval habitat diversity and larval abundance and distribution were determined across different seasons.

RESULTS

The study revealed that Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) was the most predominant 4197(57%) vector species, followed by Anopheles coustani complex 2388 (32.8%). Molecular analysis of sub-samples of An. gambiae s.l. resulted in Anopheles arabiensis (77.9%) and Anopheles amharicus (21.5%), and the remaining 1.1% (n = 7) sub-samples were not amplified. Physico-chemical parameters such as temperature (t = 2.22, p = 0.028), conductivity (t = 3.21, p = 0.002), dissolved oxygen (t = 7.96, p = 0.001), nitrate ion (t = 2.51, p = 0.013), and ammonium ion (t = 2.26, p = 0.025) showed a significant and direct association with mosquito larval abundance. Furthermore, mosquito larval abundance was correlated with distance to the nearest houses (r = - 0.42, p = 0.001), exposure to sunlight (r = 0.34, p = 0.001), during long and short rainy season animal hoof prints, truck tires/road puddles and rain pools were negatively correlated (r = - 0.22, p = 0.01) and types of habitat (r = - 0.20, p = 0.01). Significant habitat type productivity were observed in man-made pools (t = 3.881, P = 0.01163), rain pools, animal hoof prints, (t = - 4.332, P = 0.00749 in both short and long rainy season, whereas, during dry seasons habitat type productivity almost similar and have no significance difference.

CONCLUSION

The study found that different larval habitats had variable productivity in different seasons, and that physical and physicochemical features like ammonium and nitrate, as well as the distance between larval habitats and households, are related to larval production. As a result, vector control should take into account the seasonality of Anopheles larval habitat as well as the impact of pesticide application on larval source management.

Heterogeneous Optical Fiber Sensor System for Temperature and Turbidity Assessment in Wide Range

This paper presents the development of an optical fiber sensor system for multiparametric assessment of temperature and turbidity in liquid samples. The sensors are based on the combination between fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs), intensity variation and surface plasmon resonance (SPR) sensors. In this case, the intensity variation sensors are capable of detecting turbidity with a resolution of about 0.5 NTU in a limited range between 0.02 NTU and 100 NTU. As the turbidity increases, a saturation trend in the sensor is observed. In contrast, the SPR-based sensor is capable of detecting refractive index (RI) variation. However, RI measurements in the turbidity calibrated samples indicate a significant variation on the RI only when the turbidity is higher than 100 NTU. Thus, the SPR-based sensor is used as a complementary approach for the dynamic range increase of the turbidity assessment, where a linearity and sensitivity of 98.6% and 313.5 nm/RIU, respectively, are obtained. Finally, the FBG sensor is used in the temperature assessment, an assessment which is not only used for water quality assessment, but also in temperature cross-sensitivity mitigation of the SPR sensor. Furthermore, this approach also leads to the possibility of indirect assessment of turbidity through the differences in the heat transfer rates due to the turbidity increase.

Zooplankton network conditioned by turbidity gradient in small anthropogenic reservoirs

Water turbidity can significantly influence interspecific interactions in aquatic ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that the turbidity gradient significantly differentiates the dynamics, significance and type of relationships in the structure of zooplankton communities colonizing mine pit reservoirs. The interactions between zooplankton species were evaluated by network graph analysis for three water turbidity classes: high turbidity (HT), moderate turbidity (MT) and low turbidity (LT). The HT network was most cohesive, and it was controlled by taxa grazing on various food sources within one ecological niche (Polyarthra longiremis, Brachionus angularis, Cyclops vicinus, Codonella cratera) and the positive and negative relationships between them were balanced. The MT biocenotic network was composed of three sub-networks connected by nodes with high communication attributes (Polyarthra vulgaris, Bosmina longirostris, C. vicinus), and antagonistic interactions (predation and competition) were less important. The LT network was most heterogeneous, and Daphnia cuculllata exerted the strongest influence on the network's structure by forming numerous positive (coexistence with predators) and negative (interference competition with microphagous rotifers) interspecific relationships. The study provides new information about the ecology of aquatic ecosystems, that are disturbed by changes in water turbidity.

Accessing the Impact of Floating Houses on Water Quality in Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia

The floating houses in Tonle Sap Lake might be one of the main factors for degradation of water quality since the people in floating houses discharge sewage and waste from their households into the lake. Therefore, the government of Cambodia has decided to move the floating houses in Chhnok Tru to the upland regions, and more than 90% of the floating houses in Chhnok Tru have already been moved in accordance with the government’s plan. However, the scientific information on water quality before and after moving the floating houses in Tonle Sap Lake is limited. Thus, this paper aimed to evaluate differences in basic water quality such as temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), oxidation–reduction potential (ORP), conductivity (Cond), and nitrate (NO3−) before and after the floating houses were moved and to reveal the relationships between the floating houses and basic water quality. The water quality parameters were measured at 18 sampling sites in Chhnok Tru using an EXO sensor and NO3− was analyzed by ion chromatography (IC). Statistical analyses such as t-tests, correlation analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and structural equation modeling (SEM) were used. The results show that the water quality was better after moving the floating houses; however, some parts of the study area were still polluted. In addition, the percentage of floating house distribution was significantly correlated with the temperature and ORP in the study area during dry and wet seasons. The obtained results are useful for making management decisions to sustainably manage the water quality in the area.

Food and Feeding Biology of Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) in Lake Langeno, Ethiopia

This study aimed to investigate the natural feeding behavior of Nile tilapia in Lake Langeno, Ethiopia, with emphasis on potential spatial, size and seasonal effects on ingested food items. This study of the food and feeding biology of O. niloticus in Lake Langeno, Ethiopia, was conducted from March 2016to February 2017. Fish samples were collected monthly from six different sampling sites using different mesh sizes of gillnets. A total of 610 fish specimens with full stomachs were considered for the assessment of feeding biology. In total, seven food items, namely phytoplankton, zooplankton, insects, detritus, macrophytes, fish parts and nematodes, were identified from the fish stomach contents. Phytoplankton was the most commonly consumed food prey, followed by detritus, zooplankton and macrophytes. The other food items were occasionally and randomly consumed. Phytoplankton and detritus were the dominant food prey in the dry season, with zooplankton and macrophytes the main prey during the wet months. The contribution of phytoplankton, zooplankton and insects were slightly highest in small-sized groups (<10 cm), whereas detritus, macrophytes and fish parts were highest in larger-size groups (>20 cm) (p < 0.05). The present results point to a concurrence of the relative importance of dietary items at the individual level, species level and among the study sites. Phytoplankton was the primary consumed food item, which indicates the specialist feeding strategy of Nile tilapia in the lake. Generally, food items of plant origin, typically associated with less protein content than animal origin food items, dominated the stomach contents of Nile tilapia. The dietary pattern of Nile tilapia in Lake Langeno shifts with size and season, aspects that might warrant further study in view of aquaculture applications as well as climate change.

A New Method for Continuous Monitoring of Black and Odorous Water Body Using Evaluation Parameters: A Case Study in Baoding

Water is an important factor in human survival and development. With the acceleration of urbanization, the problem of black and odorous water bodies has become increasingly prominent. It not only affects the living environment of residents in the city, but also threatens their diet and water quality. Therefore, the accurate monitoring and management of urban black and odorous water bodies is particularly important. At present, when researching water quality issues, the methods of fixed-point sampling and laboratory analysis are relatively mature, but the time and labor costs are relatively high. However, empirical models using spectral characteristics and different water quality parameters often lack universal applicability. In addition, a large number of studies on black and odorous water bodies are qualitative studies of water body types, and there are few spatially continuous quantitative analyses. Quantitative research on black and odorous waters is needed to identify the risk of health and environmental problems, as well as providing more accurate guidance on mitigation and treatment methods. In order to achieve this, a universal continuous black and odorous water index (CBOWI) is proposed that can classify waters based on evaluated parameters as well as quantitatively determine the degree of pollution and trends. The model of CBOWI is obtained by partial least squares machine learning through the parameters of the national black and odorous water classification standard. The fitting accuracy and monitoring accuracy of the model are 0.971 and 0.738, respectively. This method provides a new means to monitor black and odorous waters that can also help to improve decision-making and management.

Investigating the Influence of Column Depth on the Treatment of Textile Wastewater Using Natural Zeolite

Textile industry production processes generate one of the most highly polluted wastewaters in the world. Unfortunately, the field is also challenged by the availability of relatively cheap and highly effective technologies for wastewater purification. The application of natural zeolite as a depth filter offers an alternative and potential approach for textile wastewater treatment. The performance of a depth filter treatment system can be deeply affected by the column depth and the characteristics of the wastewater to be treated. Regrettably, the information on the potential of these filter materials for the purification of textile wastewater is still scarce. Therefore, this study investigated the potential applicability of natural zeolite in terms of column depth for the treatment of textile wastewater. From the analysis results, it was observed that the filtration efficiencies were relatively low (6.1 to 13.7%) for some parameters such as total dissolved solids, electrical conductivity, chemical oxygen demand, and sodium chloride when the wastewater samples were subjected to the 0.5 m column depth. Relatively high efficiency of 82 and 93.8% was observed from color and total suspended solids, respectively, when the wastewater samples were subjected to the 0.5 m column depth. Generally, the 0.75 m column depth achieved removal efficiencies ranging from 52.3% to 97.5%, whereas the 1 m column depth achieved removal efficiencies ranging from 86.9% to 99.4%. The highest removal efficiency was achieved with a combination of total suspended solids and 1 m column depth (99.4%). In summary, the treatment approach was observed to be highly effective for the removal of total suspended solids, with a 93.8% removal efficiency when the wastewater was subjected to the 0.5 m column depth, 97.5% for 0.75 m column depth, and 99.4% for 1 m column depth. Moreover, up to 218.233 mg of color per g of the filter material was captured. The results derived in this study provide useful information towards the potential applicability of natural zeolite in the textile wastewater treatment field.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Seasonal and environmental effects on upper thermal limits of eastern sand darter (Ammocrypta pellucida)

Anthropogenic stressors are predicted to increase water temperature, which can influence physiological, individual, and population processes in fishes. We assessed the critical thermal maximum (CT_max) of eastern sand darter (Ammocrypta pellucida), a small benthic fish listed as threatened under the Species at Risk Act in Canada. Field trials were conducted stream side June-November 2019 in the Grand River, Ontario, to encompass a range of ambient water temperatures (7-25°C) for which agitation temperature (T_ag) and CT_max were determined. Additional measures were taken in the comparatively more turbid Thames River to test the effect of turbidity on both measures. In the Grand, T_ag and CT_max ranged from 23°C to 33°C and 27°C to 37°C, respectively, and both significantly increased with ambient water temperature, with a high acclimation response ratio (0.49). The thermal safety margin (difference between ambient temperatures and CT_max) was smallest in July and August (~11°C) indicating that eastern sand darter lives closer to its physiological limit in summer. The between-river comparison indicated that turbidity had no significant influence on T_ag and CT_max. Comparison of CT_max with in-river temperatures suggested that mean stream temperature 24 hours before the trial was most important for determining CT_max. Fish mass, temperature variance and maximum temperature in the 24-hour period prior to the CT_max trial were also shown to have some effect on determining CT_max. Overall, study results better define the sensitivity of eastern sand darter to temperature changes across the growing season and provide information to assess the availability of suitable thermal habitat for conservation purposes.

Data-driven and interpretable machine-learning modeling to explore the fine-scale environmental determinants of malaria vectors biting rates in rural Burkina Faso

Background

Improving the knowledge and understanding of the environmental determinants of malaria vector abundance at fine spatiotemporal scales is essential to design locally tailored vector control intervention. This work is aimed at exploring the environmental tenets of human-biting activity in the main malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s., Anopheles coluzzii and Anopheles funestus) in the health district of Diébougou, rural Burkina Faso.

Methods

Anopheles human-biting activity was monitored in 27 villages during 15 months (in 2017–2018), and environmental variables (meteorological and landscape) were extracted from high-resolution satellite imagery. A two-step data-driven modeling study was then carried out. Correlation coefficients between the biting rates of each vector species and the environmental variables taken at various temporal lags and spatial distances from the biting events were first calculated. Then, multivariate machine-learning models were generated and interpreted to (i) pinpoint primary and secondary environmental drivers of variation in the biting rates of each species and (ii) identify complex associations between the environmental conditions and the biting rates.

Results

Meteorological and landscape variables were often significantly correlated with the vectors’ biting rates. Many nonlinear associations and thresholds were unveiled by the multivariate models, for both meteorological and landscape variables. From these results, several aspects of the bio-ecology of the main malaria vectors were identified or hypothesized for the Diébougou area, including breeding site typologies, development and survival rates in relation to weather, flight ranges from breeding sites and dispersal related to landscape openness.

Conclusions

Using high-resolution data in an interpretable machine-learning modeling framework proved to be an efficient way to enhance the knowledge of the complex links between the environment and the malaria vectors at a local scale. More broadly, the emerging field of interpretable machine learning has significant potential to help improve our understanding of the complex processes leading to malaria transmission, and to aid in developing operational tools to support the fight against the disease (e.g. vector control intervention plans, seasonal maps of predicted biting rates, early warning systems).

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-04851-x.

Water-Quality Data Imputation with a High Percentage of Missing Values: A Machine Learning Approach

The monitoring of surface-water quality followed by water-quality modeling and analysis are essential for generating effective strategies in surface-water-resource management. However, worldwide, particularly in developing countries, water-quality studies are limited due to the lack of a complete and reliable dataset of surface-water-quality variables. In this context, several statistical and machine-learning models were assessed for imputing water-quality data at six monitoring stations located in the Santa Lucía Chico river (Uruguay), a mixed lotic and lentic river system. The challenge of this study is represented by the high percentage of missing data (between 50% and 70%) and the high temporal and spatial variability that characterizes the water-quality variables. The competing algorithms implement univariate and multivariate imputation methods (inverse distance weighting (IDW), Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Ridge (R), Bayesian Ridge (BR), AdaBoost (AB), Hubber Regressor (HR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR) and K-nearest neighbors Regressor (KNNR)). According to the results, more than 76% of the imputation outcomes are considered “satisfactory” (NSE > 0.45). The imputation performance shows better results at the monitoring stations located inside the reservoir than those positioned along the mainstream. IDW was the model with the best imputation results, followed by RFR, HR and SVR. The approach proposed in this study is expected to aid water-resource researchers and managers in augmenting water-quality datasets and overcoming the missing data issue to increase the number of future studies related to the water-quality matter.

The potential of viruses to influence the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions in an inland wetland

Wetlands are among the earth's most efficient ecosystems for carbon sequestration, but can also emit potent greenhouse gases (GHGs) depending on how they are managed. Global management strategies have sought to maximize carbon drawdown by wetlands by manipulating wetland hydrology to inhibit bacterially-mediated emissions. However, it has recently been hypothesized within wetlands that viruses have the potential to dictate the magnitude and direction of GHG emissions by attacking prokaryotes involved in the carbon cycle. Here we tested this hypothesis in a whole-ecosystem manipulation by hydrologically-restoring a degraded wetland ('rewetting') and investigated the changes in GHG emissions, prokaryotes, viruses, and virus-host interactions. We found that hydrological restoration significantly increased prokaryotic diversity, methanogenic Methanomicrobia, as well as putative iron/sulfate-cyclers (Geobacteraceae), nitrogen-cyclers (Nitrosomonadaceae), and fermentative bacteria (Koribacteraceae). These results provide insights into successional microbial community shifts during rehabilitation. Additionally, in response to watering, viral-induced prokaryotic mortality declined by 77%, resulting in limited carbon released by viral shunt that was significantly correlated with the 2.8-fold reduction in wetland carbon emissions. Our findings highlight, for the first time, the potential implications of viral infections in soil prokaryotes on wetland greenhouse gas dynamics and confirm the importance of wetland rehabilitation as a tool to offset carbon emissions.

Small things are important: the value of singular point elements for birds in agricultural landscapes

Farmland birds belong to the most endangered group of vertebrates in Europe. They are an important component of farmland biodiversity considering the numerous functions they perform (e.g. seed dispersal, improving germination, increasing gene flow, nutrient recycling, and pest control). Therefore, their decline imposes substantial risks on agricultural ecosystems. In general, farmland bird conservation includes land-use and management alterations leading to less-intensive farming and land-sparing for breeding habitats (e.g. agri-environment-climate schemes, and organic farming). However, theoretical concepts describing farmland biodiversity maintenance and applied conservation measures usually ignore the role of singular, often very small, natural or man-made elements in an agricultural landscape. These elements play a role in the populations of certain species, their biology and in the general species richness of farmland. Furthermore, the importance of these elements has never been empirically tested, which means that conservationists and practitioners are not aware of their measurable value for birds. Herein, we define and identify singular point elements in the agricultural landscape (SPELs) which are potentially important for breeding farmland birds. We also describe each SPEL and evaluate its importance for birds in farmland based on a systematic review of the available literature. Using a horizon-scanning technique, we then polled field ornithologists about their personal observations of birds in relation to SPELs and the evaluation of the potential roles of such structures for birds. We identified 17 SPELs that vary in naturalness and age: singular trees, singular shrubs, erratic boulders, puddles, electricity pylons, wind turbines, spiritual sites, hunting platforms, fence and border posts, wells, road signs, scarecrows, piles of manure, piles of brushwood/branches, piles of stones/debris, piles of lime, and haystacks. Analysis of the literature revealed knowledge gaps, because some SPELs are frequently mentioned in ecological studies (e.g. trees, shrubs, pylons), but others such as spiritual sites, stones, hunting platforms, wells, road signs, or piles of lime are ignored. Despite the fact that some authors incorporate the effects of some SPELs in their studies, little research to date has aimed to assess the impact of various SPELs on farmland bird species numbers and distribution. Horizon scanning revealed that ornithologists often observe birds on various SPELs and thus, attribute to SPELs many functions that are important for maintaining bird populations. Horizon scanning also highlighted the importance of SPELs for many declining bird species and suggested possible mitigation of negative changes in the agricultural landscape by retaining SPELs within fields. We suggest that a better understanding of the role of SPELs for farmland birds is required. We also recommend that SPELs are considered as a potential tool for the conservation of birds, and existing conservation programs such as agri-environment-climate schemes and organic farming should be updated accordingly. Finally, we suggest that SPELs are included in predictive models that evaluate habitat suitability for farmland biodiversity.

Perspectives on biometeorological research on the African continent

Since the first issue of the International Journal of Biometeorology in 1957, a total of 135 papers have reported on research in or of African countries. The majority of these have been on topics of animal biometeorology (36%), and the greatest proportion (24%) are situated in Nigeria. There has been a considerable increase in papers on African biometeorology since 2011, with those from this past decade accounting for 58% of all African papers in the journal. This occurs concurrent to an increase in the total number of papers published in the journal, driven by a move to the Editorial Manager system. While 66% of the papers on African biometeorology in the journal are authored by at least one person with an affiliation in the African continent, only 15 African countries are represented in the total authorship. As much of the African continent is projected to experience climatic changes exceeding the global mean, as much of the region is involved in animal and plant farming, and as seasonally-fluctuating and climatically affected diseases are common place, this low representation of work in Africa is surprising. This points to the need for greater awareness among African researchers of the discipline of biometeorology, greater involvement of African biometeorologists in International Society of Biometeorology and Commission meetings, and the inclusion of a greater number of African academics in the review process. This would be beneficial to the Society in increasing diversity and encouraging a more cosmopolitan engagement, and to the recognition of scientific development in African countries.

Development of an Alternative Low-Cost Larval Diet for Mass Rearing of Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes

Background

Aedes aegypti is a major vector of arboviruses that may be controlled on an area-wide basis, using novel approaches such as Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) and Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT). Larval diet is a critical factor to be considered in mass rearing of Aedes mosquitoes for SIT and IIT programs. Therefore, the current study is aimed at evaluating the effects of two novel diets developed from dry fish powder on the growth and development of immature stages and adult fitness-related characteristics of Ae. aegypti in Sri Lanka.

Method

Three batches of the first instar Ae. aegypti larva, each containing 250 larvae, were exposed to three different larval diets as standard dry fish powder (D₁), dry fish powder meal and brewer's yeast (D₂), and International Atomic Energy Agency- (IAEA-) recommended diet (D₃), separately. Morphometric and developmental parameters of the 4^th instar larvae, pupae, and adult mosquitoes reared under different dietary treatments were measured. The entire experimental setup was replicated thrice. A General Linear Model (GLM) in the form of two-way ANOVA was used for the statistical analysis.

Results

Significant diet-based variations were observed in the head length, head width, thoracic length, thoracic width, abdominal length, abdominal width, and total length (F_2,87 > 4.811; P < 0.05) of Ae. aegypti larvae. The highest pupation success and the larval size were observed from the larvae fed the D₂ diet, while the lowest was reported from D₁. All adult morphometric parameters of adult male and female Ae. aegypti mosquitoes also denoted significant dietary variations, reporting the best-sized adults from the D₂ diet (F_2,87 > 3.54; P < 0.05). Further, significantly higher fecundity and male longevity were also shown by the adult Ae. aegypti (F_2,6 > 7.897; P < 0.01) mosquitoes reared under diet D₂.

Conclusion

Based on all the growth and developmental parameters, the D₂ diet tends to perform similar to the IAEA-recommended diet in mass rearing of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes, while being more inexpensive. Therefore, larval diet D₂ could be suggested as the ideal diet for mass rearing of Ae. aegypti for IIT and SIT-based vector control in Sri Lanka.

Larval habitats and species diversity of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in West Azerbaijan Province, Northwestern Iran

BACKGROUND

The characteristics of a larval habitat is an important factor which affects the breeding pattern and population growth of mosquitoes Information about the larval habitat characteristics and pupal productivity can be utilized for the surveillance of the level of population growth, species diversity, and preferred breeding sites of mosquitoes, which are important aspects of integrated vector control. In the present study, mosquito larvae were collected from 22 natural habitats in five counties of the West Azerbaijan Province in the Northwest of Iran during May-November 2018. Physicochemical characteristics of the habitats were investigated. These included alkalinity, chloride (Cl) content, water temperature (°C), turbidity (NTU), Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) (ppm), Electrical Conductivity (EC) (μS/cm), and acidity (pH). The index of affinity between the collected species was calculated using Fager & McGowan test.

RESULTS

A total of 2715 specimens were collected and identified. Seven different species belonging to four genera were identified in our study sites. The species included, Culex pipiens Linnaeus 1758, Culex theileri Theobald 1903, Culex mimeticus Noé 1899, Culex modestus Ficalbi 1947, Culiseta longiareolata Macquart 1838, Anopheles maculipennis Meigen 1818complex, and Aedes caspius Pallas 1771. There was a significant difference in chloride content and water temperature preferences among the different species (P < 0.05). Also, there was no significant difference in pH, Alkalinity, Turbidity, TDS, and EC preferences among the different species (P > 0.05). The affinity between the pair of species Cx. mimeticus/Cs. longiareolata was 0.526. There was no affinity between other pairs of species or the affinity was very weak.

CONCLUSIONS

The physicochemical and biological characteristics of mosquito larval habitats play an important role in zoning of areas suitable for breeding and distribution. Surveillance of these characteristics can provide valuable information for entomological monitoring of mosquito vectors and for designing targeted control programs. Also, further studies should be undertaken in a wider geographical area, taking into account the complex characteristics of the physicochemical and ecological factors of the study area and their interaction with various mosquito species.

Characterisation of anopheline larval habitats in southern Malawi

INTRODUCTION

Increasing the knowledgebase of anopheline larval ecology could enable targeted deployment of malaria control efforts and consequently reduce costs of implementation. In Malawi, there exists a knowledge gap in anopheline larval ecology and, therefore, basis for targeted deployment of larval source management (LSM) for malaria control, specifically larvicides. We set out to characterize anopheline larval habitats in the Majete area of Malawi on the basis of habitat ecology and anopheline larval productivity to create a basis for larval control initiatives in the country.

METHODS

Longitudinal surveys were conducted in randomly selected larval habitats over a period of fifteen months in Chikwawa district, southern Malawi. Biotic and abiotic parameters of the habitats were modelled to determine their effect on the occurrence and densities of anopheline larvae.

RESULTS

Seventy aquatic habitats were individually visited between 1-7 times over the study period. A total of 5,123 immature mosquitoes (3,359 anophelines, 1,497 culicines and 267 pupae) were collected. Anopheline and culicine larvae were observed in sympatry in aquatic habitats. Of the nine habitat types followed, dams, swamps, ponds, borehole runoffs and drainage channels were the five most productive habitat types for anopheline mosquitoes. Anopheline densities were higher in aquatic habitats with bare soil making up part of the surrounding land cover (p<0.01) and in aquatic habitats with culicine larvae (p<0.01) than in those surrounded by vegetation and not occupied by culicine larvae. Anopheline densities were significantly lower in highly turbid habitats than in clearer habitats (p<0.01). Presence of predators in the aquatic habitats significantly reduced the probability of anopheline larvae being present (p=0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Anopheline larval habitats are widespread in the study area. Presence of bare soil, culicine larvae, predators and the level of turbidity of water are the main determinants of anopheline larval densities in aquatic habitats in Majete, Malawi. While the most productive aquatic habitats should be prioritised, for the most effective control of vectors in the area all available aquatic habitats should be targeted, even those that are not characterized by the identified predictors. Further research is needed to determine whether targeted LSM would be cost-effective when habitat characterisation is included in cost analyses and to establish what methods would make the characterisation of habitats easier.

Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa

Continental-scale models of malaria climate suitability typically couple well-established temperature-response models with basic estimates of vector habitat availability using rainfall as a proxy. Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range of climatic suitability for malaria transmission is more sensitive to the precipitation threshold than the thermal response curve applied. To address this problem we use downscaled daily climate predictions from seven GCMs to run a continental-scale hydrological model for a process-based representation of mosquito breeding habitat availability. A more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges as water is routed through drainage networks and river corridors serve as year-round transmission foci. The estimated hydro-climatically suitable area for stable malaria transmission is smaller than previous models suggest and shows only a very small increase in state-of-the-art future climate scenarios. However, bigger geographical shifts are observed than with most rainfall threshold models and the pattern of that shift is very different when using a hydrological model to estimate surface water availability for vector breeding.

Prior studies mapping climatologically suitable areas for malaria transmission have used relatively simple thresholds for precipitation. Here the authors show that when models incorporate hydrological processes a more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges in Africa and future shifts in suitability are more pronounced.

Storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics in lakes

In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short-term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of the water column. In addition, lakes connected to rivers and streams will also experience flushing due to high flow rates. Although we have a well-developed understanding of how wind and precipitation events can alter lake physical processes and some aspects of biogeochemical cycling, our mechanistic understanding of the emergent responses of phytoplankton communities is poor. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis that identifies how storms interact with lake and watershed attributes and their antecedent conditions to generate changes in lake physical and chemical environments. Such changes can restructure phytoplankton communities and their dynamics, as well as result in altered ecological function (e.g., carbon, nutrient and energy cycling) in the short- and long-term. We summarize the current understanding of storm-induced phytoplankton dynamics, identify knowledge gaps with a systematic review of the literature, and suggest future research directions across a gradient of lake types and environmental conditions.

The forecasting of dynamical Ross River virus outbreaks: Victoria, Australia

Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease. During RRV epidemics in the State of Victoria (such as 2010/11 and 2016/17) notifications can account for up to 30% of national RRV notifications. However, little is known about factors which can forecast RRV transmission in Victoria. We aimed to understand factors associated with RRV transmission in epidemiologically important regions of Victoria and establish an early warning forecast system. We developed negative binomial regression models to forecast human RRV notifications across 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) using climatic, environmental, and oceanographic variables. Data were collected from July 2008 to June 2018. Data from July 2008 to June 2012 were used as a training data set, while July 2012 to June 2018 were used as a testing data set. Evapotranspiration and precipitation were found to be common factors for forecasting RRV notifications across sites. Several site-specific factors were also important in forecasting RRV notifications which varied between LGA. From the 11 LGAs examined, nine experienced an outbreak in 2011/12 of which the models for these sites were a good fit. All 11 LGAs experienced an outbreak in 2016/17, however only six LGAs could predict the outbreak using the same model. We document similarities and differences in factors useful for forecasting RRV notifications across Victoria and demonstrate that readily available and inexpensive climate and environmental data can be used to predict epidemic periods in some areas. Furthermore, we highlight in certain regions the complexity of RRV transmission where additional epidemiological information is needed to accurately predict RRV activity. Our findings have been applied to produce a Ross River virus Outbreak Surveillance System (ROSS) to aid in public health decision making in Victoria.

Modelling the effects of physicochemical variables and anthropogenic activities as ecological drivers of Plesiomonas shigelloides distribution and freshwaters quality

Spatio-temporal distribution of pathogens in freshwater is driven by environmental variables (EVs), natural, and human-induced activities and the spread of infections and disease outbreaks are triggered significantly by these processes. The role of EVs and anthropogenic activities on the distribution of Plesiomonas shigelloides is not well understood; hence this study aimed at modelling the effects of EVs and anthropogenic gradients on the densities of Plesiomonas in freshwaters and freshwater quality. Three freshwaters were sampled from February to December 2017. The EVs and Plesiomonas densities of the freshwaters were determined using standard techniques, while partial least square path modelling and correlation analysis were performed on the data collected. Factors underpinning the quality of the freshwaters were identified through principal component analysis (PCA). Most EVs fell within the bounds of recommended permissible limits except turbidity, TSS, salinity and TDS. Results revealed a significant increase of Plesiomonas densities with an increase in the magnitude of path coefficients and intensities of anthropogenic activities along the freshwaters. The distribution of Plesiomonas correlated with temperature (r = 0.69, p < 0.01), TSS (r = 0.30, p < 0.01), TBS (r = 0.28, p < 0.01), and BOD (r = 0.39, p < 0.01). Similarly, a significant correlation existed between conductivity and TDS (r = 0.97, p < 0.01) and salinity (r = 0.99, p < 0.01). Network analysis of EVs identified three closed networks essential for freshwaters quality and Plesiomonas distribution with nodes of variables under synergistic latent influences. Overall, PCA identified four drivers of the freshwater quality and in part, Plesiomonas density; namely, nutrient loading; thermal and organic pollutions, aesthetic pollution, and pH modulators. Higher component score indicated a greater impact of nutrient loading on the freshwater quality. The study concluded that Plesiomonas distribution is largely shaped by anthropogenic gradients and EVs in rivers, and these may play a major role in its dissemination along freshwater milieus.

Predatory efficacy of five locally available copepods on Aedes larvae under laboratory settings: An approach towards bio-control of dengue in Sri Lanka

Many countries are in search of more effective and sustainable methods for controlling dengue vectors, due to undeniable inefficiencies in chemical and mechanical vector control methods. Bio-control of vectors by copepods is an ideal method of using interactions in the natural ecosystem for vector management, with minimum consequences on the environment. Current study determined the predatory efficacy of five locally abundant copepod species on, Aedes larvae under laboratory conditions. Copepods were collected from the pre-identified locations within the districts of Gampaha and Kandy, and identified morphologically. Individual species of copepods were maintained as separate colonies with Paramecium culture and wheat grain as supplementary food. Five adult copepods of each species was introduced into separate containers with 200 larvae (1st instar) of Aedes aegypti. Number of larvae survived in containers were enumerated at 3 hour intervals within a duration of 24 hours. Each experiment was repeated five times. The same procedure was followed for Ae. albopictus. Significance in the variations among predation rates was evaluated with General Linear Modelling (GLM) followed by Tukey's pair-wise comparison in SPSS (version 23). Significant variations in predation rates of studied copepod species were reported (p<0.05), whereby M. leuckarti indicated the highest followed by M. scrassus, while C. languides indicated the lowest predatory efficacy. The effect of different Aedes larval species on the predation rates of copepods remained significant (p<0.05), even though the effect on predatory efficiency was not significant. Based on the findings, both M. leuckarti and M. scrassus, with the highest predatory efficiencies, could be recommended as potential candidates for biological controlling of Aedes vectors in Sri Lanka.

Breeding Site Characteristics and Associated Factors of Culex pipiens Complex in Lhasa, Tibet, P. R. China

Characterizing the breeding sites of Culex pipiens complex is of major importance for the control of West Nile disease and other related diseases. However, little information is available about the characteristics and associated factors of the breeding sites of the Cx. pipiens complex in Lhasa, a representative high-altitude region in Southwestern China. In this study, a cross-sectional study concerning the breeding site characteristics and associated factors of the Cx. pipiens complex was carried out in Lhasa, Tibet from 2013–2016. Chi-square analysis and binary logistic regression analysis were applied to identify the key factors associated with the presence of Cx. pipiens complex larvae. Using a standard dipping method, 184 water bodies were examined and Cx. pipiens complex larvae were observed in 36 (19.57%) of them. There were significant differences in the composition of Cx. pipiens complex larvae among the breeding site stability (χ² = 19.08, p = 0.00) and presence or absence of predators (χ² = 6.986, p = 0.008). Binary logistic regression analysis indicated that breeding site stability and presence or absence of predators were significantly associated with the presence of Cx. pipiens complex larvae in Chengguan District, Lhasa. Relatively permanent water bodies such as water bodies along river fringes, ponds and puddles, and water bodies with no predators should be paid more attention for future Cx. pipiens complex larvae abatement campaigns in Lhasa, China.

Automatic Detection of Open and Vegetated Water Bodies Using Sentinel 1 to Map African Malaria Vector Mosquito Breeding Habitats

Providing timely and accurate maps of surface water is valuable for mapping malaria risk and targeting disease control interventions. Radar satellite remote sensing has the potential to provide this information but current approaches are not suitable for mapping African malarial mosquito aquatic habitats that tend to be highly dynamic, often with emergent vegetation. We present a novel approach for mapping both open and vegetated water bodies using serial Sentinel-1 imagery for Western Zambia. This region is dominated by the seasonally inundated Upper Zambezi floodplain that suffers from a number of public health challenges. The approach uses open source segmentation and machine learning (extra trees classifier), applied to training data that are automatically derived using freely available ancillary data. Refinement is implemented through a consensus approach and Otsu thresholding to eliminate false positives due to dry flat sandy areas. The results indicate a high degree of accuracy (mean overall accuracy 92% st dev 3.6) providing a tractable solution for operationally mapping water bodies in similar large river floodplain unforested environments. For the period studied, 70% of the total water extent mapped was attributed to vegetated water, highlighting the importance of mapping both open and vegetated water bodies for surface water mapping.

Anopheles arabiensis oviposition site selection in response to habitat persistence and associated physicochemical parameters, bacteria and volatile profiles

A better understanding of the oviposition behaviour of malaria vectors might facilitate the development of new vector control tools. However, the factors that guide the aquatic habitat selection of gravid females are poorly understood. The present study explored the relative attractiveness of similar artificial ponds (0.8 m² ) aged at varying lengths prior to opening in such a way that wild Anopheles arabiensis could choose between ponds that were freshly set up, or were aged 4 or 17 days old, to lay eggs. Physicochemical parameters, bacterial profile and volatile organic compounds emitted from ponds were investigated over three experimental rounds. Fresh ponds contained on average twice as many An. arabiensis instar larvae (mean 50, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 29-85) as the ponds that had aged 4 days (mean = 24, 95% CI = 14-42) and 17 days (mean = 20, 95% CI: 12-34). Fresh ponds were associated with a significantly higher turbidity combined with higher water temperature, higher nitrite levels and a lower pH and chlorophyll level than the older ponds. Round by round analyses suggested that bacteria communities differed between age groups and also that 4-heptanone, 2-ethylhexanal and an isomer of octenal were exclusively detected from the fresh ponds. These characteristics may be useful with respect to developing attract and kill strategies for malaria vector control.

Larvicidal Potential of Five Selected Dragonfly Nymphs in Sri Lanka over Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) Larvae under Laboratory Settings

Introduction

Limitations in breeding source reduction practices, development of insecticide resistance in mosquitoes, and ill effects of chemical controlling methods on human and ecosystem health have motivated Sri Lankan authorities working for dengue control to seek for alternative, ecofriendly, and sustainable approaches for controlling of Aedes vectors, to manage dengue epidemics. The present study attempted to investigate the predation efficiency of locally available dragonfly nymphs over Aedes aegypti under laboratory conditions, aiming to evaluate the potential of using dragonflies as biocontrol agents against dengue.

Methods

Nymphal stages of five locally abundant dragonfly species were collected from different stagnated water bodies in Belihuloya area. After morphological identification, a well grown individual of each species was starved for 12 hours and introduced into a glass tank containing 1L of pond water with 200 larvae (4th instar) of Aedes aegypti. Number of larvae survived in the tank was enumerated hourly up to 48 hours. In case where >75% of larvae are consumed by dragonfly nymphs, additional Ae. aegypti larvae were introduced into such tanks. Experiment was repeated for five times. Same procedure was followed with different stages of growth of the dragonfly nymphs characterized by the highest predation rate. General Linear Model followed by Tukey's pairwise comparison was used for statistical analysis.

Results

The predation rates of different dragonfly species varied significantly (p<0.05), whereby Anax indicus (110±7.14 per day) indicated the highest, followed by Pantala flavescens (54.07±5.15) and Gynacantha dravida (49.00±11.89), while Tholymis tillarga (23.47±2.48) had the lowest. Further, significant variations in the larval predation were found among different maturity stages (10–20; 25-35; and 35–45 mm in body length) of Ana. indicus (p<0.05). Regardless of statistical significance, a relatively higher larvicidal activity was observed at dusk than in dawn. Conclusion. Ana. indicus, which is characterized by the highest predation rate, and P. flavescens that has the widest geographical distribution within Sri Lanka along with a notable predation efficacy could be recommended as potential candidates for field trials in biological control of dengue outbreaks via suppression of Ae. aegypti larvae.

The links between agriculture, Anopheles mosquitoes, and malaria risk in children younger than 5 years in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a population-based, cross-sectional, spatial study

BACKGROUND

The relationship between agriculture, Anopheles mosquitoes, and malaria in Africa is not fully understood, but it is important for malaria control as countries consider expanding agricultural projects to address population growth and food demand. Therefore, we aimed to assess the effect of agriculture on Anopheles biting behaviour and malaria risk in children in rural areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo).

METHODS

We did a population-based, cross-sectional, spatial study of rural children (<5 years) in the DR Congo. We used information about the presence of malaria parasites in each child, as determined by PCR analysis of dried-blood spots from the 2013-14 DR Congo Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). We also used data from the DHS, a longitudinal entomological study, and available land cover and climate data to evaluate the relationships between agriculture, Anopheles biting behaviour, and malaria prevalence. Satellite imagery was used to measure the percentage of agricultural land cover around DHS villages and Anopheles sites. Anopheles biting behaviour was assessed by Human Landing Catch. We used probit regression to assess the relationship between agriculture and the probability of malaria infection, as well as the relationship between agriculture and the probability that a mosquito was caught biting indoors.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 13, 2013, and Feb 13, 2014, a total of 9790 dried-blood spots were obtained from the DHS, of which 4612 participants were included in this study. Falciparum malaria infection prevalence in rural children was 38·7% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 37·3-40·0). Increasing exposure to agriculture was associated with increasing malaria risk with a high posterior probability (estimate 0·07, 95% UI -0·04 to 0·17; posterior probability [estimate >0]=0·89), with the probability of malaria infection increased between 0·2% (95% UI -0·1 to 3·4) and 2·6% (-1·5 to 6·6) given a 15% increase in agricultural cover, depending on other risk factors. The models predicted that large increases in agricultural cover (from 0% to 75%) increase the probability of infection by as much as 13·1% (95% UI -7·3 to 28·9). Increased risk might be due to Anopheles gambiae sensu lato, whose probability of biting indoors increased between 11·3% (95% UI -15·3 to 25·6) and 19·7% (-12·1 to 35·9) with a 15% increase in agriculture.

INTERPRETATION

Malaria control programmes must consider the possibility of increased risk due to expanding agriculture. Governments considering initiating large-scale agricultural projects should therefore also consider accompanying additional malaria control measures.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, President's Malaria Initiative, and Royster Society of Fellows at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Modeling the Response of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Kenya Highlands to a Rise in Mean Annual Temperature

A dynamical model of Anopheles gambiae larval and adult populations is constructed that matches temperature-dependent maturation times and mortality measured experimentally as well as larval instar and adult mosquito emergence data from field studies in the Kenya Highlands. Spectral classification of high-resolution satellite imagery is used to estimate household density. Indoor resting densities collected over a period of one year combined with predictions of the dynamical model give estimates of both aquatic habitat and total adult mosquito densities. Temperature and precipitation patterns are derived from monthly records. Precipitation patterns are compared with average and extreme habitat estimates to estimate available aquatic habitat in an annual cycle. These estimates are coupled with the original model to produce estimates of adult and larval populations dependent on changing aquatic carrying capacity for larvae and changing maturation and mortality dependent on temperature. This paper offers a general method for estimating the total area of aquatic habitat in a given region, based on larval counts, emergence rates, indoor resting density data, and number of households.Altering the average daily temperature and the average daily rainfall simulates the effect of climate change on annual cycles of prevalence of An. gambiae adults. We show that small increases in average annual temperature have a large impact on adult mosquito density, whether measured at model equilibrium values for a single square meter of habitat or tracked over the course of a year of varying habitat availability and temperature.

Multi-faceted monitoring of estuarine turbidity and particulate matter provenance: Case study from Salem Harbor, USA

Turbidity is a water quality parameter that is known to adversely affect aquatic systems, however the causes of turbid water are often elusive. We present results of a study designed to constrain the source of particulate matter in a coastal embayment that has suffered from increased turbidity over past decades. Our approach utilized monitoring buoys to quantify turbidity at high temporal resolution complemented by geochemical isotope analysis of suspended sediment samples and meteorological data. Results reveal a complex system in which multiple sources are associated with particulate matter. Weight of evidence demonstrates that phytoplankton productivity in the water column, however, is the dominant source of particulate matter associated with elevated turbidity in Salem Harbor, Massachusetts. Allochthonous matter from the watershed was observed to mix into the pool of suspended particulate matter near river mouths, especially in spring and summer. Resuspension of harbor surface sediments likely provides additional particulates in the regions of boat moorings, especially during summer when recreational boats are attached to moorings. Our approach allows us to constrain the causes of turbidity events in this embayment, is helping with conservation efforts of environmental quality in the region, and can be used as a template for other locations.

Modelling the influence of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis

BACKGROUND

Malaria continues to be one of the most devastating diseases in the world, killing more humans than any other infectious disease. Malaria parasites are entirely dependent on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission. For this reason, vector population dynamics is a crucial determinant of malaria risk. Consequently, it is important to understand the biology of malaria vector mosquitoes in the study of malaria transmission. Temperature and precipitation also play a significant role in both aquatic and adult stages of the Anopheles.

METHODS

In this study, a climate-based, ordinary-differential-equation model is developed to analyse how temperature and the availability of water affect mosquito population size. In the model, the influence of ambient temperature on the development and the mortality rate of Anopheles arabiensis is considered over a region in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. In particular, the model is used to examine the impact of climatic factors on the gonotrophic cycle and the dynamics of mosquito population over the study region.

RESULTS

The results fairly accurately quantify the seasonality of the population of An. arabiensis over the region and also demonstrate the influence of climatic factors on the vector population dynamics. The model simulates the population dynamics of both immature and adult An. arabiensis. The simulated larval density produces a curve which is similar to observed data obtained from another study.

CONCLUSION

The model is efficiently developed to predict An. arabiensis population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of various control strategies. In addition, the model framework is built to accommodate human population dynamics with the ability to predict malaria incidence in future.

Aquatain® Mosquito Formulation (AMF) for the control of immature Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and Anopheles arabiensis: dose-responses, persistence and sub-lethal effects

Background

Persistent monomolecular surface films could benefit larval source management for malaria control by reducing programme costs and managing insecticide resistance. This study evaluated the efficacy of the silicone-based surface film, Aquatain® Mosquito Formulation (AMF), for the control of the Afrotropical malaria vectors, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and Anopheles arabiensis in laboratory dose–response assays and standardized field tests.

Methods

Tests were carried out following guidelines made by the World Health Organization Pesticide Evaluation Scheme (WHOPES). Sub-lethal effects of AMF were evaluated by measuring egg-laying and hatching of eggs laid by female An. gambiae s.s. that emerged from habitats treated with a dose that resulted in 50% larval mortality in laboratory tests.

Results

Both vector species were highly susceptible to AMF. The estimated lethal doses to cause complete larval mortality in dose–response tests in the laboratory were 1.23 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.99-1.59) ml/m² for An. gambiae s.s. and 1.35 (95% CI 1.09-1.75) ml/m² for An. arabiensis. Standardized field tests showed that a single dose of AMF at 1 ml/m² inhibited emergence by 85% (95% CI 82-88%) for six weeks. Females exposed as larvae to a sub-lethal dose of AMF were 2.2 times less likely (Odds ratio (OR) 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.78) to lay eggs compared to those from untreated ponds. However, exposure to sub-lethal doses neither affected the number of eggs laid by females nor the proportion hatching.

Conclusion

AMF provided high levels of larval control for a minimum of six weeks, with sub-lethal doses reducing the ability of female mosquitoes to lay eggs. The application of AMF provides a promising novel strategy for larval control interventions against malaria vectors in Africa. Further field studies in different eco-epidemiological settings are justified to determine the persistence of AMF film for mosquito vector control and its potential for inclusion in integrated vector management programmes.

Habitat discrimination by gravid Anopheles gambiae sensu lato--a push-pull system

BACKGROUND

The non-random distribution of anopheline larvae in natural habitats suggests that gravid females discriminate between habitats of different quality. Whilst physical and chemical cues used by Culex and Aedes vector mosquitoes for selecting an oviposition site have been extensively studied, those for Anopheles remain poorly explored. Here the habitat selection by Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.), the principal African malaria vector, was investigated when presented with a choice of two infusions made from rabbit food pellets, or soil.

METHODS

Natural colonization and larval survival was evaluated in artificial ponds filled randomly with either infusion. Dual-choice, egg-count bioassays evaluated the responses of caged gravid females to (1) two- to six-day old infusions versus lake water; (2) autoclaved versus non-autoclaved soil infusions; and assessed (3) the olfactory memory of gravid females conditioned in pellet infusion as larvae.

RESULTS

Wild Anopheles exclusively colonized ponds with soil infusion and avoided those with pellet infusion. When the individual infusions were tested in comparison with lake water, caged An. gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) showed a dose response: females increasingly avoided the pellet infusion with increasing infusion age (six-day versus lake water: odds ratio (OR) 0.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1-0.5) and showed increasing preference to lay eggs as soil infusion age increased (six-day versus lake water: OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.4-3.3). Larvae survived in soil infusions equally well as in lake water but died in pellet infusions. Anopheles gambiae s.s. preferred to lay eggs in the non-autoclaved soil (OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.8-3.7) compared with autoclaved soil. There was no change in the avoidance of pellet infusion by individuals reared in the infusion compared with those reared in lake water.

CONCLUSION

Wild and caged An. gambiae s.l. females discriminate between potential aquatic habitats for oviposition. These choices benefit the survival of the offspring. Although the study was not designed to distinguish between stimuli that acted over a distance or on contact, it could be demonstrated that the choice of habitat is mediated by chemical cues based on both preference and avoidance. These cues, if identified, might be developed for 'push-pull' strategies to improve malaria vector monitoring and control.

Effects of food, water depth, and temperature on diving activity of larval Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto: evidence for diving to forage

Anopheles gambiae larvae have frequently been observed to dive, but the ecology of this behavior has not been extensively examined. We manipulated food level, water depth, and temperature for individually-reared larvae and observed diving activity. Larvae dived more often under low food, which suggests that they dive to forage. There was only weak evidence for effects of water depth or temperature on diving. Experimental results are discussed in the context of energy budgets. Understanding larval ecology of this species is important for predicting how it will respond to environmental change. Further study is needed to assess the role that larval diving plays in both feeding ecology and thermal regulation of this and other medically important species.

A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology

BACKGROUND

The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors.

METHODS

A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates.

RESULTS

Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration.

CONCLUSIONS

A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.

Anopheline larval habitats seasonality and species distribution: a prerequisite for effective targeted larval habitats control programmes

Background

Larval control is of paramount importance in the reduction of malaria vector abundance and subsequent disease transmission reduction. Understanding larval habitat succession and its ecology in different land use managements and cropping systems can give an insight for effective larval source management practices. This study investigated larval habitat succession and ecological parameters which influence larval abundance in malaria epidemic prone areas of western Kenya.

Methods and Findings

A total of 51 aquatic habitats positive for anopheline larvae were surveyed and visited once a week for a period of 85 weeks in succession. Habitats were selected and identified. Mosquito larval species, physico-chemical parameters, habitat size, grass cover, crop cycle and distance to nearest house were recorded. Polymerase chain reaction revealed that An. gambiae s.l was the most dominant vector species comprised of An.gambiae s.s (77.60%) and An.arabiensis (18.34%), the remaining 4.06% had no amplification by polymerase chain reaction. Physico-chemical parameters and habitat size significantly influenced abundance of An. gambiae s.s (P = 0.024) and An. arabiensis (P = 0.002) larvae. Further, larval species abundance was influenced by crop cycle (P≤0.001), grass cover (P≤0.001), while distance to nearest houses significantly influenced the abundance of mosquito species larvae (r = 0.920;P≤0.001). The number of predator species influenced mosquito larval abundance in different habitat types. Crop weeding significantly influenced with the abundance of An.gambiae s.l (P≤0.001) when preceded with fertilizer application. Significantly higher anopheline larval abundance was recorded in habitats in pasture compared to farmland (P = 0.002). When habitat stability and habitat types were considered, hoof print were the most productive followed by disused goldmines.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that implementation of effective larval control programme should be targeted with larval habitats succession information when larval habitats are fewer and manageable. Crop cycles and distance from habitats to household should be considered as effective information in planning larval control.

Abiotic and biotic factors associated with the presence of Anopheles arabiensis immatures and their abundance in naturally occurring and man-made aquatic habitats

Background

Anopheles arabiensis (Diptera: Culicidae) is a potential malaria vector commonly present at low altitudes in remote areas in Reunion Island. Little attention has been paid to the environmental conditions driving larval development and abundance patterns in potential habitats. Two field surveys were designed to determine whether factors that discriminate between aquatic habitats with and without An. arabiensis larvae also drive larval abundance, comparatively in man-made and naturally occurring habitats.

Methods

In an initial preliminary survey, a representative sample of aquatic habitats that would be amenable to an intensive long-term study were selected and divided into positive and negative sites based on the presence or absence of Anopheles arabiensis larvae. Subsequently, a second survey was prompted to gain a better understanding of biotic and abiotic drivers of larval abundance, comparatively in man-made and naturally occurring habitats in the two studied locations. In both surveys, weekly sampling was performed to record mosquito species composition and larval density within individual habitats, as well as in situ biological characteristics and physico-chemical properties.

Results

Whilst virtually any stagnant water body could be a potential breeding ground for An. arabiensis, habitats occupied by their immatures had different structural and biological characteristics when compared to those where larvae were absent. Larval occurrence seemed to be influenced by flow velocity, macrofauna diversity and predation pressure. Interestingly, the relative abundance of larvae in man-made habitats (average: 0.55 larvae per dip, 95%CI [0.3–0.7]) was significantly lower than that recorded in naturally occurring ones (0.74, 95%CI [0.5–0.8]). Such differences may be accounted for in part by varying pressures that could be linked to a specific habitat.

Conclusions

If the larval ecology of An. arabiensis is in general very complex and factors affecting breeding site productivity sometimes not easy to highlight, our results, however, highlight lower populations of An. arabiensis immatures compared to those reported in comparable studies conducted in the African continent. Overall, this low larval abundance, resulting from both abiotic and biotic factors, suggests that vector control measures targeting larval habitats are likely to be successful in Reunion, but these could be better implemented by taking environmental variability into account.

Efficacy of aquatain, a monomolecular film, for the control of malaria vectors in rice paddies

Background

Rice paddies harbour a large variety of organisms including larvae of malaria mosquitoes. These paddies are challenging for mosquito control because their large size, slurry and vegetation make it difficult to effectively apply a control agent. Aquatain, a monomolecular surface film, can be considered a suitable mosquito control agent for such breeding habitats due to its physical properties. The properties allow Aquatain to self-spread over a water surface and affect multiple stages of the mosquito life cycle.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A trial based on a pre-test/post-test control group design evaluated the potential of Aquatain as a mosquito control agent at Ahero rice irrigation scheme in Kenya. After Aquatain application at a dose of 2 ml/m² on rice paddies, early stage anopheline larvae were reduced by 36%, and late stage anopheline larvae by 16%. However, even at a lower dose of 1 ml/m² there was a 93.2% reduction in emergence of anopheline adults and 69.5% reduction in emergence of culicine adults. No pupation was observed in treated buckets that were part of a field bio-assay carried out parallel to the trial. Aquatain application saved nearly 1.7 L of water in six days from a water surface of 0.2 m² under field conditions. Aquatain had no negative effect on rice plants as well as on a variety of non-target organisms, except backswimmers.

Conclusions/Significance

We demonstrated that Aquatain is an effective agent for the control of anopheline and culicine mosquitoes in irrigated rice paddies. The agent reduced densities of aquatic larval stages and, more importantly, strongly impacted the emergence of adult mosquitoes. Aquatain also reduced water loss due to evaporation. No negative impacts were found on either abundance of non-target organisms, or growth and development of rice plants. Aquatain, therefore, appears a suitable mosquito control tool for use in rice agro-ecosystems.

Spatial and temporal distribution patterns of Anopheles arabiensis breeding sites in La Reunion Island--multi-year trend analysis of historical records from 1996-2009

Background

An often confounding facet of the dynamics of malaria vectors is the aquatic larval habitat availability and suitable conditions under which they can thrive. Here, we investigated the impact of environmental factors on the temporal and spatial distribution of larval habitats of Anopheles arabiensis in different locations on La Reunion Island.

Methods

A retrospective examination was made from archival data which provided the complete enumeration of An. arabiensis breeding habitats in three distinct geographic zones - extending North-east, West and South of the island over 14 years, from January 1996 to December 2009. Data on the occurrence and the number of active larval habitats at each of a total of 4376 adjacent ellipsoid grid cells (216,506 square meters each) were used (1) to provide the geographic extent of breeding site availability from year to year and (2) to analyze associations with prevailing environmental factors, habitat types, and locations.

Results

Anopheles arabiensis utilized a spectrum of man-made and natural aquatic habitats, most of which were concentrated primarily in the rock pools located in ravines and river fringes, and also in the large littoral marshes and within the irrigated agricultural zones. The numbers of breeding site per sampling grid differed significantly in different parts of the island. In contrast to an originally more widespread distribution across the island in the 1950s, detailed geographic analyses of the data obtained in the period extending from 1996-2009 showed an intriguing clustered distribution of active breeding sites in three discontinuous geographic zones, in which aquatic habitats availability fluctuates with the season and year. Seasonality in the prevalence of anopheles breeding sites suggests significant responsiveness to climatic factors.

Conclusions

The observed retreat of An. arabiensis distribution range to lower altitudinal zones (< 400 m) and the upward shift in the most remote littoral areas in the northeast and southwest regions suggest the possible influence of biogeographic factors, changes in land use and control operations. The results of this study would allow for a more rational implementation of control strategies across the island.

Divergent transcriptional response to thermal stress by Anopheles gambiae larvae carrying alternative arrangements of inversion 2La

The African malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae is polymorphic for chromosomal inversion 2La, whose frequency strongly correlates with degree of aridity across environmental gradients. Recent physiological studies have associated 2La with resistance to desiccation in adults and thermal stress in larvae, consistent with its proposed role in aridity tolerance. However, the genetic basis of these traits remains unknown. To identify genes that could be involved in the differential response to thermal stress, we compared global gene expression profiles of heat-hardened 2La or 2L+(a) larvae at three time points, for up to eight hours following exposure to the heat stress. Treatment and control time series, replicated four times, revealed a common and massive induction of a core set of heat-shock genes regardless of 2La orientation. However, clear differences between the 2La and 2L+(a) arrangements emerged at the earliest (0.25 h) time point, in the intensity and nature of the stress response. Overall, 2La was associated with the more aggressive response: larger numbers of genes were heat responsive and up-regulated. Transcriptionally induced genes were enriched for functions related to ubiquitin-proteasomal degradation, chaperoning and energy metabolism. The more muted transcriptional response of 2L+(a) was largely repressive, including genes involved in proteolysis and energy metabolism. These results may help explain the maintenance of the 2La inversion polymorphism in An. gambiae, as the survival benefits offered by high thermal sensitivity in harsh climates could be offset by the metabolic costs of such a drastic response in more equable climates.

Beyond temperature and precipitation: ecological risk factors that modify malaria transmission

Being able to identify the ecological factors that impact risk for malaria would confer important predictive capacity to target malaria control interventions in a community. Temperature and water available for breeding habitats have been shown to be important primary ecological factors that impact the distribution of the malaria vectors and the rate at which the mosquito and parasite develop. However, to this point, studies focusing on the local level have been met with many inconsistent results when assessing malaria risk using both temperature and precipitation. This paper reviewed existing literature to determine if other ecological factors beyond temperature and water are present that may be modifying any associations present between ecological factors and malaria risk. It was found that the ability for water to pool and persist, water quality, elevation, deforestation, and agriculture have all been associated with malaria and may be modifying risk. Using the primary and modifying ecological variables, identifying the interactions between these factors and specific thresholds for increased malaria risk is critical: filling this knowledge gap would enable communities to develop tailored malaria control interventions targeted to their specific circumstances.

A simplified model to predict diurnal water temperature dynamics in a shallow tropical water pool

Water temperature is a critical regulator in the growth and development of malaria mosquito immatures, as they are poikilothermic. Measuring or estimating the diurnal temperature ranges to which these immatures are exposed is of the utmost importance, as these immatures will develop into adults that can transmit malaria. Recent attempts to predict the daily water temperature dynamics in mosquito breeding sites in Kenya have been successful. However, the developed model may be too complex, as the sophisticated equipment that was used for detailed meteorological observations is not widely distributed in Africa, making it difficult to predict the daily water temperature dynamics on a local scale. Therefore, we compared two energy budget models with earlier made observations of the daily water temperature dynamics in a small, shallow and clear water pool (diameter 0.96 m, depth 0.32 m) in Kenya. This paper describes (1) a complex 1-Dimensional model, and (2) a simplified second model, and (3) shows that both models mimic the water temperature dynamics in the water pool accurately. The latter model has the advantage that it only needs common weather data (air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and cloud cover) to estimate the diurnal temperature dynamics in breeding sites of African malaria mosquitoes.