A novel TNM staging system for gastric cancer based on the metro-ticket paradigm: a comparative study with the AJCC-TNM staging system

A novel ypN-TRG staging system for gastric cancer patients after neoadjuvant therapy based on the metro-ticket paradigm: a multicenter and large sample retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

Conventional ypT category evaluates the depth of invasion after neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) for gastric cancer (GC) and has limited prognostic value. Tumor regression grade (TRG) measures the extent of tumor response to treatment, and when combined with the ypN category, it may enhance the prediction of patient outcomes. This study aims to develop a new staging system by integrating TRG and ypN category to better evaluate the prognosis of GC patients receiving NAT.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis included 962 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy after NAT, with 513 in the development cohort (from one center) and 449 in the external validation cohort (from five centers). The ypN-TRG staging system was established by calculating the distance from the origin on a cartesian plane incorporating the ypN (x-axis) stage and TRG (y-axis) grade, and five sub-stages were delineated.

RESULTS

In the development cohort, 3-year overall survival rates according to ypN-TRG stage I, IIA, IIB, IIIA, IIB were 87.6%, 80.2%, 70.7%, 47.3%, 21.5%, p < 0.01. Compared with ypTNM, the ypN-TRG staging system performed better in terms of the prognostic discrimination power (C-index), goodness-of-fit (AIC, BIC), model improvement (NRI, IDI), and model stability (time-AUC). Multivariate Cox regression analysis confirmed the superiority of ypN-TRG over ypTNM staging. In the external validation cohort, ypN-TRG staging was a better predictor of OS and DFS in patients with GC.

CONCLUSIONS

The ypN-TRG staging system is superior to the AJCC eighth edition ypTNM staging system in accurately assessing the prognosis of patients with GC after NAT.

Development of a prognostic oxidative stress-immune-inflammation score and online calculators for predicting survival and recurrence in gastric cancer: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Oxidative stress, immune response, and inflammation play an important role in the occurrence and progression of gastric cancer (GC). This study is to develop a novel prognostic oxidative stress-immune-inflammation score (POSII score) and to explore the clinical value of the novel nomograms incorporating this factor in survival and recurrence risk.

METHODS

This study included 3612 GC patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at three tertiary hospitals from 2009 to 2020. One hospital formed the training and internal validation cohorts, while the other two constituted the external validation cohort. Twelve hematological markers were collected and analyzed to develop the POSII score via LASSO regression. Two online calculators were developed and validated.

RESULTS

The POSII score categorized patients into low and high POSII groups, with the low POSII group showing significantly improved 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates, as well as a markedly reduced risk of recurrence (all P < 0.05). Multivariate COX regression showed that the POSII score was an independent prognostic factor. Based on the POSII score, two nomograms (OS: AUC = 0.837; DFS: AUC = 0.834, respectively) for individualized prognostic prediction were constructed. To enhance clinical usability, we further developed two user-friendly online calculators. The high-risk group had an earlier, more persistent peak of recurrence and a high incidence of multiple recurrence patterns.

CONCLUSION

Two novel online calculators based on the POSII score can be used as reliable tools for predicting survival and recurrence after radical gastrectomy. Our findings provide new insights into the role of cancer-related immune dysregulation, inflammation, and oxidative stress imbalances.

Both direct and indirect suppression of MCL1 synergizes with BCLXL inhibition in preclinical models of gastric cancer

Despite the progress of treatment in gastric cancer (GC), the overall outcomes remain poor in patients with advanced diseases, underscoring the urgency to develop more effective treatment strategies. BH3-mimetic drugs, which inhibit the pro-survival BCL2 family proteins, have demonstrated great therapeutic potential in cancer therapy. Although previous studies have implicated a role of targeting the cell survival pathway in GC, the contribution of different pro-survival BCL2 family proteins in promoting survival and mediating resistance to current standard therapies in GC remains unclear. A systematic study to elucidate the hierarchy of these proteins using clinically more relevant GC models is essential to identify the most effective therapeutic target(s) and rational combination strategies for improving GC therapy. Here, we provide evidence from both in vitro and in vivo studies using a broad panel of GC cell lines, tumoroids, and xenograft models to demonstrate that BCLXL and MCL1, but not other pro-survival BCL2 family proteins, are crucial for GC cells survival. While small molecular inhibitors of BCLXL or MCL1 exhibited some single-agent activity, their combination sufficed to cause maximum killing. However, due to the unsolved cardiotoxicity associated with direct MCL1 inhibitors, finding combinations of agents that indirectly target MCL1 and enable the reduction of doses of BCLXL inhibitors while maintaining their anti-neoplastic effects is potentially a feasible approach for the further development of these compounds. Importantly, inhibiting BCLXL synergized significantly with anti-mitotic and HER2-targeting drugs, leading to enhanced anti-tumour activity with tolerable toxicity in preclinical GC models. Mechanistically, anti-mitotic chemotherapies induced MCL1 degradation via the ubiquitin-proteasome pathway mainly through FBXW7, whereas HER2-targeting drugs suppressed MCL1 transcription via the STAT3/SRF axis. Moreover, co-targeting STAT3 and BCLXL also exhibited synergistic killing, extending beyond HER2-amplified GC. Collectively, our results provide mechanistic rationale and pre-clinical evidence for co-targeting BCLXL and MCL1 (both directly and indirectly) in GC. (i) Gastric cancer cells rely on BCLXL and, to a lesser degree, on MCL1 for survival. The dual inhibition of BCLXL and MCL1 with small molecular inhibitors acts synergistically to kill GC cells, regardless of their TCGA molecular subtypes or the presence of poor prognostic markers. While the effect of S63845 is mediated by both BAX and BAK in most cases, BAX, rather than BAK, acts as the primary mediator of BCLXLi in GC cells. (ii) Inhibiting BCLXL significantly synergizes with anti-mitotic and HER2-targeting drugs, leading to enhanced anti-tumour activity with tolerable toxicity in preclinical GC models. Mechanistically, anti-mitotic chemotherapies induce MCL1 degradation via the ubiquitin-proteasome pathway mainly through FBXW7, whereas HER2-targeting drugs suppress MCL1 transcription via the STAT3/SRF axis. The combination of the STAT3 inhibitor and BCLXL inhibitor also exhibits synergistic killing, extending beyond HER2-amplified GC.

Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition Criteria and Immunonutritional Status Predict Chemoadherence and Survival in Stage II/III Gastric Cancer Treated with XELOX Chemotherapy

BACKGROUD

Adjuvant chemotherapy is crucial for the treatment of advanced gastric cancer. However, various factors negatively impact chemoadherence, with malnutrition after gastrectomy being a critical determinant. This study aims to analyze the impact of malnutrition, assessed through the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) and other immunonutritional indices, on chemoadherence and its subsequent effect on survival.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 116 patients who underwent curative gastrectomy and received oxaliplatin and capecitabine (XELOX). Preoperative nutritional status was assessed using the GLIM criteria along with other immunonutritional indices, such as the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score, and modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS). Chemotherapy adherence was measured using relative dose intensity (RDI). Statistical analyses included least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to identify the key predictors of RDI and Cox proportional hazards models and assess the impact on survival.

RESULTS

Overall, 116 patients were included in this analysis. In the multivariate analysis using LASSO regression, higher GLIM severity was independently associated with a lower RDI (coefficient = -0.0216; p < 0.01). Other significant factors influencing RDI included older age (p < 0.01), female sex (p = 0.02), higher mGPS (p = 0.03), higher CONUT score (p = 0.04), and higher CAR (p = 0.05), all of which were associated with a lower RDI. The Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that higher RDI was significantly associated with better survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.06; p < 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the critical role of immunonutritional status, particularly as measured using the GLIM criteria, in maintaining adherence to chemotherapy and improving survival outcomes in patients with gastric cancer. Routine preoperative nutritional assessments using GLIM can help identify high-risk patients, and early nutritional interventions may improve chemotherapy adherence and outcomes. These findings support the integration of nutritional strategies, specifically targeting those identified by the GLIM, into standard care to enhance the efficacy and survival of chemotherapy.

Screening high-risk individuals for primary gastric carcinoma: evaluating overall survival probability score in the presence and absence of lymphatic metastasis post-gastrectomy

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop and validate prognostic models for predicting overall survival in individuals with gastric carcinoma, specifically focusing on both negative and positive lymphatic metastasis.

METHODS

A total of 1650 patients who underwent radical gastric surgery at Shanxi Cancer Hospital between May 2002 and December 2020 were included in the analysis. Multiple Cox Proportional Hazards analysis was performed to identify key variables associated with overall survival in both negative and positive lymphatic metastasis cases. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. Calibration curves were used to demonstrate the accuracy and consistency of the predictions. The discriminative abilities of the prognostic models were evaluated and compared with the 8th edition of AJCC-TNM staging using Harrell's Concordance index, decision curve analysis, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

The nomogram for node-negative lymphatic metastasis included variables such as age, pT stage, and maximum tumor diameter. The C-index for this model in internal validation was 0.719, indicating better performance compared to the AJCC 8th edition TNM staging. The nomogram for node-positive lymphatic metastasis included variables such as gender, age, maximum tumor diameter, neural invasion, Lauren classification, and expression of Her-2, CK7, and CD56. The C-index for this model was 0.674, also outperforming the AJCC 8th edition TNM staging. Calibration curves, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and decision curve analysis for both nomograms demonstrated excellent prediction ability. Furthermore, significant differences in prognosis between low- and high-risk groups supported the models' strong risk stratification performance.

CONCLUSION

This study provides valuable risk stratification models for lymphatic metastasis in gastric carcinoma, encompassing both node-positive and negative cases. These models can help identify low-risk individuals who may not require further intervention, while high-risk individuals can benefit from targeted therapies aimed at addressing lymphatic metastasis.

Prognostic value of tumor regression grade (TRG) after oncological gastrectomy for gastric cancer

PURPOSE

Perioperative chemotherapy combined with surgical resection represent the gold standard in the treatment of locally advanced gastric cancer. The Mandard tumor regression score (TRG) is widely used to evaluate pathological response to neoadjuvant treatment. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of TRG in terms of overall survival (OS) and disease-free (DFS).

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of all consecutive patients who underwent oncological gastrectomy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy from January 2007 to December 2019 for gastric adenocarcinoma was performed. Based on their TRG status they were categorized into two groups: good responders (TRG 1-2) and poor responders (TRG 3-5). Subsequent multivariable analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Seventy-four patients were included, whereby 15 (20.3%) were TRG 1-2. Neoadjuvant regimens for TRG 1-2 vs. TRG 3-5 were similar: MAGIC (53% vs. 39%), FLOT (40% vs. 36%), FOLFOX (7% vs. 15%, p = 0.462). Histologic types according to Lauren classification for TRG 1-2 vs. TRG 3-5 were: 13% vs. 29% intestinal, 53% vs. 44% diffuse and 34% vs. 27% indeterminate (p = 0.326). TRG 1-2 group exhibited significantly less advanced ypT (46% vs. 10%, p = 0.001) and ypN stages (66% vs. 37%, p = 0.008), alongside a diminished recurrence rate (20% vs. 42%, p = 0.111). The 3-year DFS was significantly better in this group (81% vs. 47%, p = 0.041) whereas the disparity in three-year OS (92% vs. 55%, p = 0.054) did not attain statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

TRG 1-2 was associated with less advanced ypT and ypN stage and better DFS compared to TRG 3-5 patients, without a significant impact on OS.

Implication of perineural invasion in patients with stage II gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Perineural invasion (PNI) is regarded as a prognostic factor for patients with GC. However, the significance of PNI in patients with stage II GC remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the clinical implication of PNI in patients with stage II GC undergoing curative resection.

METHODS

Patients with stage II GC who underwent curative resection were retrospectively evaluated from January 2010 to July 2019. According to PNI status, all patients were divided into two groups: with or without PNI. The prognostic value of PNI was analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 233 patients were included in this study. There were 100 patients with PNI (42.92%) and 133 patients without PNI (57.08%). The overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates for patients with PNI were significantly lower than that for patients without PNI (p = 0.019 and p = 0.032, respectively). Multivariate analysis indicated that the presence of PNI was an independent risk factor for OS (hazard ratio (HR): 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-3.06, p = 0.044) and DFS (HR: 1.70, 95% CI 1.04-2.80, p = 0.035), while adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) was an independent protective factor for OS (HR: 0.51, 95% CI 0.30-0.88, p = 0.016) and DFS (HR: 0.52, 95% CI 0.31-0.86, p = 0.011). Furthermore, among patients with PNI, those who received AC had better OS (p = 0.022) and DFS (p = 0.027) than their counterparts. When patients with PNI received AC, the OS (p = 0.603) and DFS (p = 0.745) appeared to be similar to those without PNI and no AC.

CONCLUSION

In patients with stage II GC undergoing curative resection, the presence of PNI was associated with worse survival, which appeared to improve with the treatment of AC, indicating a potential need for more intensive AC.

Neoadjuvant Gastric Score: How Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Affects Overall Survival and Adjuvant Benefit

INTRODUCTION

The Neoadjuvant Rectal score (NAR) was developed as a short-term surrogate for 5-year overall survival (OS) prediction in locally advanced rectal cancer on the basis of response to neoadjuvant therapy. We aim to assess whether this score can be repurposed for locally advanced gastric adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgical resection.

METHODS

Patients with gastric adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant systemic therapy followed by surgical resection were extracted from the National Cancer Database. Neoadjuvant Gastric (NAG) scores were calculated, and patients were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-score categories, with low scores predicting longer survival. Patients were propensity-matched 1:1:1 between the groups for OS comparison. We also matched patients within each group 1:1 per receipt of adjuvant therapy and compared 5-year OS.

RESULTS

There were 2,970 patients identified. NAG classified patients into low- (n = 396, 13.3%), intermediate-(n = 756, 25.5%), and high (n = 1818, 61.2%) groups. After propensity matching, 5-year OS was significantly different between the matched groups (low-NAG 82%, intermediate-NAG 73%, and high-NAG 39%; p < 0.001). NAG score grouping also predicted OS benefit of adjuvant therapy; low- and intermediate-NAG patients had no OS benefit with adjuvant therapy (86% vs. 84%; p = 0.492, and 77% vs. 74%; p = 0.382, respectively), whereas patients with high-NAG score had a 5-year OS benefit with adjuvant therapy (39% vs. 29%; p = 0.024).

CONCLUSION

NAR score may be repurposed to generate a prognostic tool in gastric adenocarcinoma to predict 5-year OS and has the potential to guide decision-making regarding allocation of adjuvant therapy. Further studies should prospectively validate these findings to confirm clinical utility.

How Toll-like Receptor 9 Plays a Key Role in the Development of Gastric Cancer and Is Linked to Epstein-Barr Virus Infection

The relationship between Toll-like receptor 9 (TLR-9) signaling and its involvement with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in gastric cancer (GC) is complex and currently under study. This research intended to understand TLR-9's role in certain T and B lymphocytes and the serum levels of TLR-9 in GC patients versus healthy subjects. The team explored links between these immune markers and various GC traits, such as histological grade, tumor progression stages, cancer types, and survival rates. Additionally, the research sought to find if EBV genetic material influences these immune reactions. Using flow cytometry, TLR-9 levels in different immune cells were analyzed. At the same time, the amount of TLR-9 in the serum was determined. The results showed GC patients had varied TLR-9 levels compared to healthy subjects, with specific cells showing noticeable changes. When grouped by GC attributes, key relationships emerged between TLR-9 amounts, the histological grade, progression stages, and cancer types. A notable finding was the connection between TLR-9 levels and EBV genetic presence, suggesting possible interactions between TLR-9 responses and EBV-related GC processes. Survival data also hinted at TLR-9's potential as a predictor linked to clinical traits. Overall, this research emphasizes TLR-9's complex role in GC's immune responses, pinpointing its interactions with particular cells, clinical features, and EBV. The study unveils a complex web affecting GC and paves the way for new treatment avenues targeting TLR-9 pathways.

Prognostic nomograms for gastric carcinoma after D2 + total gastrectomy to assist decision-making for postoperative treatment: based on Lasso regression

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to establish novel nomograms that could be used to predict the prognosis of gastric carcinoma patients who underwent D2 + total gastrectomy on overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS).

METHODS

Lasso regression was employed to construct the nomograms. The internal validation process included bootstrapping, which was used to test the accuracy of the predictions. The calibration curve was then used to demonstrate the accuracy and consistency of the predictions. In addition, the Harrell's Concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (t-ROC) curves were used to evaluate the discriminative abilities of the new nomograms and to compare its performance with the 8th edition of AJCC-TNM staging. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to assess the clinical application of our model. Finally, the prognostic risk stratification of gastric cancer was conducted with X-tile software, and the nomograms were converted into a risk-stratifying prognosis model.

RESULTS

LASSO regression analysis identified pT stage, the number of positive lymph nodes, vascular invasion, neural invasion, the maximum diameter of tumor, the Clavien-Dindo classification for complication, and Ki67 as independent risk factors for OS and pT stage, the number of positive lymph nodes, neural invasion, and the maximum diameter of tumor for PFS. The C-index of OS nomogram was 0.719 (95% CI: 0.690-0.748), which was superior to the 8th edition of AJCC-TNM staging (0.704, 95%CI: 0.623-0.783). The C-index of PFS nomogram was 0.694 (95% CI: 0.654-0.713), which was also better than that of the 8th edition of AJCC-TNM staging (0.685, 95% CI: 0.635-0.751). The calibration curves, t-ROC curves, and DCA of the two nomogram models showed that the prediction ability of the two nomogram models was outstanding. The statistical difference in the prognosis between the low- and high-risk groups further suggested that our model had an excellent risk stratification performance.

CONCLUSION

We reported the first risk stratification and nomogram for gastric carcinoma patients with total gastrectomy in Chinese population. Our model could potentially be used to guide treatment selections for the low- and high-risk patients to avoid delayed treatment or unnecessary overtreatment.

Anti-apoptotic protein BCL-XL as a therapeutic vulnerability in gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

New therapeutic targets are needed to improve the outcomes for gastric cancer (GC) patients with advanced disease. Evasion of programmed cell death (apoptosis) is a hallmark of cancer cells and direct induction of apoptosis by targeting the pro-survival BCL2 family proteins represents a promising therapeutic strategy for cancer treatment. Therefore, understanding the molecular mechanisms underpinning cancer cell survival could provide a molecular basis for potential therapeutic interventions.

METHOD

Here we explored the role of BCL2L1 and the encoded anti-apoptotic BCL-XL in GC. Using Droplet Digital PCR (ddPCR) technology to investigate the DNA amplification of BCL2L1 in GC samples and GC cell lines, the sensitivity of GC cell lines to selective BCL-XL inhibitors A1155463 and A1331852, pan-inhibitor ABT-263, and VHL-based PROTAC-BCL-XL was analyzed using (CellTiter-Glo) CTG assay in vitro. Western Blot (WB) was used to detect the protein expression of BCL2 family members in GC cell lines and the manner in which PROTAC-BCL-XL kills GC cells. Co-immunoprecipitation (Co-IP) was used to investigate the mechanism of A1331852 and ABT-263 kills GC cell lines. DDPCR, WB, and real-time PCR (RTPCR) were used to investigate the correlation between DNA, RNA, protein levels, and drug activity.

RESULTS

The functional assay showed that a subset of GC cell lines relies on BCL-XL for survival. In gastric cancer cell lines, BCL-XL inhibitors A1155463 and A1331852 are more sensitive than the pan BCL2 family inhibitor ABT-263, indicating that ABT-263 is not an optimal inhibitor of BCL-XL. VHL-based PROTAC-BCL-XL DT2216 appears to be active in GC cells. DT2216 induces apoptosis of gastric cancer cells in a time- and dose-dependent manner through the proteasome pathway. Statistical analysis showed that the BCL-XL protein level predicts the response of GC cells to BCL-XL targeting therapy and BCL2L1 gene CNVs do not reliably predict BCL-XL expression.

CONCLUSION

We identified BCL-XL as a promising therapeutic target in a subset of GC cases with high levels of BCL-XL protein expression. Functionally, we demonstrated that both selective BCL-XL inhibitors and VHL-based PROTAC BCL-XL can potently kill GC cells that are reliant on BCL-XL for survival. However, we found that BCL2L1 copy number variations (CNVs) cannot reliably predict BCL-XL expression, but the BCL-XL protein level serves as a useful biomarker for predicting the sensitivity of GC cells to BCL-XL-targeting compounds. Taken together, our study pinpointed BCL-XL as potential druggable target for specific subsets of GC.

A Comprehensive Review of Prognostic Factors in Patients with Gastric Adenocarcinoma

Gastric adenocarcinoma remains associated with a poor long-term survival, despite recent therapeutical advances. In most parts of the world where systematic screening programs do not exist, diagnosis is often made at advanced stages, affecting long-term prognosis. In recent years, there is increasing evidence that a large bundle of factors, ranging from the tumor microenvironment to patient ethnicity and variations in therapeutic strategy, play an important role in patient outcome. A more thorough understanding of these multi-faceted parameters is needed in order to provide a better assessment of long-term prognosis in these patients, which probably also require the refinement of current staging systems. This study aims to review existing knowledge on the clinical, biomolecular and treatment-related parameters that have some prognostic value in patients with gastric adenocarcinoma.

Indications for Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Stage II Gastric Cancer After D2 Gastrectomy-A Chinese Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

The benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) for patients with stage II gastric cancer remains controversial. This study aimed to explore the indications for adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage II gastric cancer by constructing an individual prediction model.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this Chinese multicenter study, a total of 1012 patients with stage II gastric cancer after D2 radical gastrectomy were retrospectively analyzed. All patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 674) or a validation cohort (n = 338). A nomogram was constructed according to the training cohort. Concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. ROC curves and stratified survival were used to determine the patients' cutoff score for a benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. An additional 338 patients were used as a validation cohort to validate the feasibility of using this nomogram to guide individualized therapy for patients with stage II gastric cancer.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate analyses illustrated that age, sex, tumor location, size, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), hemoglobin (HB), and T stage were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), and they were used to establish a nomogram. The cutoff value was determined by ROC curve analysis, and patients were divided into a high-risk group (< 239 points) and a low-risk group (≥ 239 points). There was no significant difference in the OS of low-risk patients in either the training cohort or the validation cohort. However, the OS of high-risk patients in the AC group was better than that of patients in the surgery-only group.

CONCLUSIONS

This prediction model can be applied to guide treatment of patients with stage II gastric cancer. High-risk patients (< 239 points) are likely to benefit from AC after D2 radical gastrectomy.

Prognostic nomograms for gastric carcinoma after surgery to assist decision-making for postoperative treatment with chemotherapy cycles <9 or chemotherapy cycles ≥9

Objective

We sought to develop novel nomograms to accurately predict overall survival (OS) of chemotherapy cycles &lt;9 and chemotherapy cycles ≥9 and construct risk stratification to differentiate low-risk and high-risk of two cohorts.

Methods

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for gastric cancer between January 2002 and May 2020 at a single China institution were identified. Variables associated with OS were recorded and analyzed according to multivariable Cox models. Nomograms predicting 3- and 5-year OS were built according to variables resulting from multivariable Cox models. Discrimination ability was calculated using the Harrell's Concordance Index. The constructed nomogram was subjected to 1,000 resamples bootstrap for internal validation. Calibration curves for the new nomograms were used to test the consistency between the predicted and actual 3- and 5-year OS. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to assess the clinical net benefit. The Concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (t-ROC) curves were used to evaluate and compare the discriminative abilities of the new nomograms. Finally, prognostic risk stratification of gastric cancer was conducted with X-tile software and nomograms converted into a risk-stratified prognosis model.

Results

For the nomogram predict OS of chemotherapy cycles &lt;9, C-index was 0.711 (95% CI, 0.663–0.760) in internal validation and 0.722 (95% CI, 0.662–0.783) in external validation, which was better than AJCC 8th edition TNM staging (internal validation: 0.627, 95% CI, 0.585–0.670) and (external validation: 0.595,95% CI, 0.543–0.648). The C-index of the nomogram for chemotherapy cycles ≥9 in internal validation was 0.755 (95% CI, 0.728–0.782) and 0.785 (95% CI, 0.747–0.823) in external validation, which was superior to the AJCC 8th edition TNM staging (internal validation: 0.712 95% CI, 0.688–0.737) and (external validation 0.734, 95% CI, 0.699–0.770).The calibration curves, t-ROC curves and DCA of the two nomogram models show that the recognition performance of the two nomogram models was outstanding. The statistical differences in the prognosis among the two risk stratification groups further showed that our model had an excellent risk stratification performance.

Conclusion

This is first reported risk stratification for chemotherapy cycles of gastric carcinoma. Our proposed nomograms can effectively evaluate postoperative prognosis of patients with different chemotherapy cycles of gastric carcinoma. Chemotherapy cycles ≥9 is therefore recommended for high-risk patients with chemotherapy cycles &lt;9, but not for low-risk patients. Meanwhile, combination with multiple therapies are essential to high-risk patients with chemotherapy cycles ≥9 and unnecessary for low-risk patients.

Disease-Specific Survival of AJCC 8th Stage II Gastric Cancer Patients After D2 Gastrectomy

The association between the risk factors and long-term prognosis in patients with stage II gastric cancer after radical gastrectomy has been fully revealed. The purpose of this study was to investigate the independent risk factors for treatment failure in stage II gastric cancer. Demographic, clinical, and pathological information of 247 stage II gastric cancer patients who underwent radical D2 gastrectomy in our department between January 2011 and December 2014 were collected and retrospectively analyzed. The relationship between and long-term clinical outcomes of stage II gastric cancer was analyzed using t-tests, chi-square tests, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, time-dependent ROC analysis, K–M curves, and a Cox regression model. The median follow-up of 247 stage II gastric cancer patients was 5.49 years (range: 0.12–8.62 years). The Kaplan–Meier estimated 3-year and 5-year DSS rates of the study group were 92.7% (95% CI 89.4–95.9) and 88.7% (95% CI 84.7–92.7), respectively. Higher age (>70 vs. ≤70, log-rank p = 0.0406), nerve invasion (positive vs. negative, log-rank p = 0.0133), and non-distal gastrectomy (distal partial gastrectomy vs. other surgical methods, log-rank p = 0.00235) had worse prognoses compared to controls. Univariate and multivariate analyses of disease-specific survival showed that these three factors were independent prognostic factors for patients with stage II disease. The area under time-dependent ROC curve (AUC) is 0.748 of 5-year survival and c-index is 0.696 based on the three-marker model drawn for stage II patients. Subgroup analyses showed an interaction between tumor location and nerve invasion. The age, perineural invasion, and surgical approach are independent prognostic factors for disease-specific survival after radical gastrectomy. Tumor location may be an important confounding factor for outcomes by affecting surgical methods and the hazards of nerve invasion.

A Novel TNM Classification for Colorectal Cancers based on the Metro-ticket Paradigm

Background: Several revisions of the TNM classifications for colorectal cancer (CRC) have acknowledged that the oncological outcomes of stage IIB/IIC CRC are worse than those of stage IIIA. We aimed to develop a novel TNM (nTNM) classification based on the metro-ticket paradigm. Methods: We identified eligible CRC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The nTNM was developed using distance from the origin on a Cartesian plane incorporating the pN (x-axis) and pT (y-axis) stages, and was compared with the AJCC TNM classification. The areas under the curves (AUCs), calibration curves, and Akaike's information criterion (AIC) were used to evaluate the predictive performances of the two classifications. Clinical benefits were further estimated by decision curve analyses. The validation cohort was applied to validate these findings. Results: A total of 58,192 CRC patients (40,736 training cohort, 17,456 validation cohort) were finally included. In the training cohort, 18,476 patients (45.4%) experienced upstaging and 15,907 patients (39.0%) experienced downstaging in the nTNM classification compared with the TNM classification. Taking the prognosis of stage I as the reference, survival decreased with increasing nTNM stage. The nTNM classification showed better discrimination (AUC, 0.678 vs. 0.667, P<0.001), model-fitting (AIC, 236,525 vs. 237,741), and clinical benefits than the TNM classification. Similar results were found in the validation cohort. Conclusions: The nTNM classification for CRC has better predictive performances and superior accuracy for predicting prognosis compared with the TNM classification. The nTNM classification should therefore be considered in future revisions of the TNM classification.

Molecular Subtypes and CD4+ Memory T Cell-Based Signature Associated With Clinical Outcomes in Gastric Cancer

BACKGROUND

CD4+ memory T cells are an important component of the tumor microenvironment (TME) and affect tumor occurrence and progression. Nevertheless, there has been no systematic analysis of the effect of CD4+ memory T cells in gastric cancer (GC).

METHODS

Three datasets obtained from microarray and the corresponding clinical data of GC patients were retrieved and downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. We uploaded the normalize gene expression data with standard annotation to the CIBERSORT web portal for evaluating the proportion of immune cells in the GC samples. The WGCNA was performed to identify the modules the CD4+ memory T cell related module (CD4+ MTRM) which was most significantly associated with CD4+ memory T cell. Univariate Cox analysis was used to screen prognostic CD4+ memory T cell-related genes (CD4+ MTRGs) in CD4+ MTRM. LASSO analysis and multivariate Cox analysis were then performed to construct a prognostic gene signature whose effect was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC), Harrell's concordance index (C-index), and decision curve analyses (DCA). A prognostic nomogram was finally established based on the CD4+ MTRGs.

RESULT

We observed that a high abundance of CD4+ memory T cells was associated with better survival in GC patients. CD4+ MTRM was used to stratify GC patients into three clusters by unsupervised clustering analysis and ten CD4+ MTRGs were identified. Overall survival, five immune checkpoint genes and 17 types of immunocytes were observed to be significantly different among the three clusters. A ten-CD4+ MTRG signature was constructed to predict GC patient prognosis. The ten-CD4+ MTRG signature could divide GC patients into high- and low-risk groups with distinct OS rates. Multivariate Cox analysis suggested that the ten-CD4+ MTRG signature was an independent risk factor in GC. A nomogram incorporating this signature and clinical variables was established, and the C-index was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.697-0.763). Calibration curves and DCA presented high credibility for the OS nomogram.

CONCLUSION

We identified three molecule subtypes, ten CD4+ MTRGs, and generated a prognostic nomogram that reliably predicts OS in GC. These findings have implications for precise prognosis prediction and individualized targeted therapy.

Comprehensive analysis of a 14 immune-related gene pair signature to predict the prognosis and immune features of gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

As a new method for predicting tumor prognosis, the predictive effect of immune-related gene pairs (IRGPs) has been confirmed in several cancers, but there is no comprehensive analysis of the clinical significance of IRGPs in gastric cancer (GC).

METHOD

Clinical and gene expression profile data of GC patients were obtained from the GEO database. Based on the ImmPort database, differentially expressed immune-related gene (DEIRG) events were determined by a comparison of GC samples and adjacent normal samples. Cox proportional regression was used to construct an IRGP signature, and its availability was validated using three external validation datasets. In addition, we explored the association between clinical data and immune features and established a nomogram to predict outcomes in GC patients.

RESULT

A total of 88 DEIRGs were identified in GC from the training set, which formed 3828 IRGPs. Fourteen overall survival (OS)-related IRGPs were used to construct the prognostic signature. As a result, patients in the high-risk group exhibited poorer OS compared to those in the low-risk group. In addition, the fraction of CD8+ T cells, plasma cells, CD4 memory activated T cells, and M1 macrophages was higher in the high-risk group. Expression of two immune checkpoints, CD276 and VTCN1, was significantly higher in the high-risk group as well. Based on the independent prognostic factors, a nomogram was established and showed excellent performance.

CONCLUSION

The 14 OS-related IRGP signature was associated with OS, immune cells, and immune checkpoints in GC patients, and it could provide the basis for related immunotherapy.

Use of radiomics to extract splenic features to predict prognosis of patients with gastric cancer

INTRODUCTION

Radiomics allows for mining of imaging data to examine tissue characteristics non-invasively, which can be used to predict the prognosis of a patient. This study explored the use of imaging techniques to evaluate splenic tissue characteristics to predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Computed tomography images from patients with gastric cancer were collected retrospectively. Splenic image characteristics, extracted with pyradiomics, of patients in the training group were randomly divided. Characteristics with a P value < 0.1 were selected for lasso regression to construct a survival risk model. Models for high-and low-risk groups were established. Patients were divided into the high- and low-risk groups for univariate and multivariate regression analysis of survival-related factors, and a visual prognostic prediction model was established.

RESULTS

The splenic characteristic prognostic model was consistent in the training and verification groups (p < 0.001 and p = 0.016, respectively). The two groups that displayed different splenic characteristics showed no statistical difference in other basic data except the tumour-node-metastasis (pTNM) stage (p = 0.007). Univariate and multivariate analysis of survival risk factors showed that splenic characteristics (p = 0.042), age (p < 0.001), tumor location (p = 0.002), and pTNM stage (p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for survival. The prognostic prediction model combined with splenic characteristics significantly improved the accuracy of prognosis, predicting one-and three-year survival rates.

CONCLUSION

Splenic features extracted from imaging technology can accurately predict the long-term survival of patients with gastric cancer. Splenic characteristic grouping can effectively improve the accuracy of survival prediction and gastric cancer prognosis.

Score for the Overall Survival Probability of Patients With Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma of the Body and Tail After Surgery: A Novel Nomogram-Based Risk Assessment

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma of the body and tail often has a dismal prognosis and lacks a specific prognostic stage. The aim of this study was to construct a nomogram for predicting survival of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma of the body and tail after surgery. Data of patients were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and from medical records of Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC). In a multivariate analysis for overall survival (OS), the following six variables were identified as independent predictors and incorporated into the nomogram: age, tumor differentiation, tumor size, lymph node ratio (LNR), and chemotherapy. A nomogram was built based on independent risk predictors. The concordance index (C-index) for nomogram, Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) 7th and 8th stage system were 0.775 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.731–0.819], 0.617 (95%CI, 0.575–0.659), and 0.632 (95%CI, 0.588–0.676), respectively. The calibrated nomogram predicted survival rates which closely corresponded to the actual survival rates. Furthermore, the values of the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) of the nomograms were higher than those of the TNM 7th or 8th stage system in predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival of patients in training and external validation cohorts. The well-calibrated nomogram could be used to predict prognosis for patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma of the body and tail after surgery.

Diagnostic Sensitivity of NLR and PLR in Early Diagnosis of Gastric Cancer

The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) are markers of systemic inflammation. However, there is little evidence of the value of inflammation in the early diagnosis of gastric cancer (GC). A total of 2,606 patients diagnosed with GC in the past three years and 3,219 healthy controls over the same period were included in this study. Peripheral blood samples were obtained to analyze the NLR, PLR, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9). The optimal cutoff levels for the NLR and PLR were defined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis (NLR = 2.258, PLR = 147.368). The value of different biomarkers for diagnosing GC was compared by the area under the curve (AUC). The NLR and PLR showed diagnostic sensitivity in GC (AUC = 0.715, AUC = 0.707). Using the Bonferroni correction, the NLR and PLR were superior to CEA and CA19-9 in the diagnosis of GC (P < 0.0001). The systemic inflammatory markers were significantly higher in the early stage of GC than tumor markers. After grouping patients and healthy controls by gender, we found that the diagnostic significance of combined NLR and PLR for GC was greater in male patients than in female patients (P < 0.0001). The diagnostic value of the NLR and PLR in GC is higher than that of the traditional tumor markers CEA and CA19-9. Systemic markers of inflammation are more valuable in male than female patients.

Tumor-infiltrating CD8+ T cells combined with tumor-associated CD68+ macrophages predict postoperative prognosis and adjuvant chemotherapy benefit in resected gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Tumor-infiltrating immune cells are present in various malignant tumors, but their clinical significance in gastric cancer (GC) remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs).

METHODS

Using a prospective database containing 401 cases of GC, we evaluated TIL (cluster of differentiation 8 (CD8) expression) and TAM (cluster of differentiation 68 (CD68) expression) statuses via immunohistochemical staining.

RESULTS

Compared with CD8+ TIL-negative cases (n = 196, 48.6%), CD8+ TIL-positive cases (n = 205, 51.1%) showed significantly better recurrence-free survival (RFS) [log-rank p<0.001; multivariate HR: 0.372; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.239-0.579, p<0.001]. In contrast, compared with CD68+ TAM-negative cases (n = 217, 54.1%), CD68+ TAM-positive cases (n = 184, 45.9%) had significantly poor RFS [log-rank p<0.001; multivariate HR: 2.182; 95% CI: 1.435-3.318, p<0.001]. Thus, patients with a positive CD8+ TIL and negative CD68+ TAM status exhibited significantly increased RFS. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that CD8+ TILs and CD68+ TAMs may serve as independent prognostic markers for RFS. Incorporating CD8+ TIL and CD68+ TAM statuses into the AJCC TNM system generated a predictive model with better predictive accuracy for RFS. More importantly, patients with a positive TIL and negative TAM status showed a tendency of improved RFS after postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy (PAC). Similar results were obtained by overall survival (OS) analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

CD8+ TIL and CD68+ TAM statuses were identified as independent prognostic factors that may be integrated into the current TNM staging system to refine risk stratification and to better predict the survival benefit from PAC in patients with GC.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The current controlled trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT02327481 ) on December 30, 2014.

The predictive value of the preoperative C-reactive protein-albumin ratio for early recurrence and chemotherapy benefit in patients with gastric cancer after radical gastrectomy: using randomized phase III trial data

BACKGROUND

The definition and predictors of early recurrence (ER) for gastric cancer (GC) patients after radical gastrectomy are unclear.

METHODS

A minimum-p value approach was used to evaluate the optimal cutoff value of recurrence-free survival to determine ER and late recurrence (LR). Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated for inflammatory indices. Potential risk factors for ER were assessed with a Cox regression model. A decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the clinical utility.

RESULTS

A total of 401 patients recruited in a clinical trial (NCT02327481) from January 2015 to April 2016 were included in this study. The optimal length of recurrence-free survival to distinguish between ER (n = 44) and LR (n = 52) was 12 months. Factors associated with ER included a preoperative C-reactive protein-albumin ratio (CAR) ≥ 0.131, stage III and postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy (PAC) > 3 cycles. The risk model consisting of both the CAR and TNM stage had a higher predictive ability and better clinical utility than TNM stage alone. Further stratification analysis of the stage III patients found that for the patients with a CAR < 0.131, both PAC with 1-3 cycles (p = 0.029) and > 3 cycles (p < 0.001) could reduce the risk of ER. However, for patients with a CAR ≥ 0.131, a benefit was observed only if they received PAC > 3 cycles (54.2% vs 16.0%, p = 0.004), rather than 1-3 cycles (58.3% vs 54.2%, p = 0.824).

CONCLUSIONS

A recurrence-free interval of 12 months was found to be the optimal threshold for differentiating between ER and LR. Preoperative CAR was a promising predictor of ER and PAC response. PAC with 1-3 cycles may not exert a protective effect against ER for stage III GC patients with CAR ≥ 0.131.