Reconstruction of long-term tobacco consumption trends in Australia and their relationship to lung cancer mortality

Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes Are Among the Main Underlying Causes of Death in Twenty Healthcare Facilities Across Two Cities in the Democratic Republic of Congo

INTRODUCTION

The mortality rates associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes exhibit disparities by region, with Central Africa ranking fourth globally in terms of mortality rate. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) does not possess mortality data pertaining to these specific underlying causes of death. This study aimed to determine the death rate attributable to CVD and diabetes in two cities in the DRC.

METHODOLOGY

The data on CVD and diabetes utilized in this study were obtained from a pilot project and were registered in the National Health Information System (NHIS). Data quality was initially evaluated using an automated Digital Open Rule Integrated Selection (DORIS), followed by an assessment conducted manually by three assessors. Descriptive and comparative analyses were carried out to determine the proportion of mortality related to CVD and diabetes.

RESULTS

CVD accounted for 20.4% (95%CI: 17.7-23.4%) of deaths in the two cities (Kinshasa and Matadi), whereas diabetes accounted for 5.4% (95%CI: 3.9-7.2%). After adjusting for age and city, the proportional mortality from CVD and diabetes was higher for women than men and increased with age. This study recorded 4.4% of deaths among men and 7.0% among women as the proportional mortality from diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) continue to be a major cause of death, and CVD and diabetes are among the leading causes of early mortality in adults in urban areas. The proportional mortality related to CVD and diabetes appears to be higher in women than in men. Special emphasis should be placed on women, particularly during adulthood, to ensure the prompt detection of diabetes and cardiovascular conditions.

Time Dependence Between Tobacco Consumption and Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain

OBJECTIVES

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death and the second most common cancer in both sexes worldwide, with tobacco being its main risk factor. The aim of this study is to establish the temporal relationship between smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality in Spain.

METHODS

To model the time dependence between smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality, a distributed lag non-linear model was applied adjusting for sex, age, year of mortality and population at risk. Smoking prevalence data from 1991-2020 were used. Considering a maximum lag of 25 years, mortality data from 2016-2020 were included. The effect of prevalence on mortality for each lag is presented in terms of relative risk (RR). To identify the lag at which smoking prevalence has the greatest effect on mortality, the RR of the different lags were compared.

RESULTS

The optimal lag observed between smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality in Spain was 15 years. The maximum RR was 2.9 (95%CI: 2.0-4.3) for a prevalence of 71% and a 15-year lag. The RR was 1.8 for a prevalence of 33%, an approximate median value between 1991-2020, and a 15-year lag.

CONCLUSIONS

In Spain, lung cancer mortality is affected by smoking prevalence 15 years prior. Knowing the evolution of the smoking prevalence series in a country and establishing a lag time is essential to predict how lung cancer incidence and mortality will evolve.

Lung cancer mortality and associated predictors: systematic review using 32 scientific research findings

Background

Cancer is a chronic disease brought on by mutations to the genes that control our cells' functions and become the most common cause of mortality and comorbidities. Thus, this study aimed to assess the comprehensive and common mortality-related risk factors of lung cancer using more than thirty scientific research papers.

Methods

Possible risk factors contributing to lung cancer mortality were assessed across 201 studies sourced from electronic databases, including Google Scholar, Cochrane Library, Web of Science (WOS), EMBASE, Medline/PubMed, the Lung Cancer Open Research Dataset Challenge, and Scopus. Out of these, 32 studies meeting the eligibility criteria for meta-analysis were included. Due to the heterogeneous nature of the studies, a random-effects model was applied to estimate the pooled effects of covariates.

Results

The overall prevalence of mortality rate was 10% with a 95% confidence interval of 6 and 16%. Twenty studies (62.50%) studies included in this study considered the ages of lung cancer patients as the risk factors for mortality. Whereas, eighteen (56.25%) and thirteen (40.63%) studies incorporated the gender and smoking status of patients respectively. The comorbidities of lung cancer mortality such as cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, and pneumonia were also involved in 7 (21.90%), 6 (18.75%), 5 (15.63%), and 2 (6.25%) studies, respectively. Patients of older age are more likely to die as compared to patients of younger age. Similarly, lung patients who had smoking practice were more likely to die as compared to patients who hadn't practiced smoking.

Conclusion

The mortality rate of lung cancer patients is considerably high. Older age, gender, stage, and comorbidities such as cardiovascular, hypertension, and diabetes have a significant positive effect on lung cancer mortality. The study results will contribute to future research, management, and prevention strategies for lung cancer.

Effects of inappropriate cause-of-death certification on mortality from cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus in Tonga

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus are major health issues in Tonga and other Pacific countries, although mortality levels and trends are unclear. We assess the impacts of cause-of-death certification on coding of CVD and diabetes as underlying causes of death (UCoD).

METHODS

Tongan records containing cause-of-death data (2001-2018), including medical certificates of cause-of-death (MCCD), had UCoD assigned according to International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10) coding rules. Deaths without recorded cause were included to ascertain total mortality. Diabetes and hypertension causes were reallocated from Part 1 of the MCCD (direct cause) to Part 2 (contributory cause) if potentially fatal complications were not recorded, and an alternative UCoD was assigned. Proportional mortality by cause based on the alternative UCoD were applied to total deaths then mortality rates calculated by age and sex using census/intercensal population estimates. CVD and diabetes mortality rates for unaltered and alternative UCoD were compared using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Over 2001-18, in ages 35-59 years, alternative CVD mortality was higher than unaltered CVD mortality in men (p = 0.043) and women (p = 0.15); for 2010-18, alternative versus unaltered measures in men were 3.3/103 (95%CI: 3.0-3.7/103) versus 2.9/103 (95%CI: 2.6-3.2/103), and in women were 1.1/103 (95%CI: 0.9-1.3/103) versus 0.9/103 (95%CI: 0.8-1.1/103). Conversely, alternative diabetes mortality rates were significantly lower than the unaltered rates over 2001-18 in men (p < 0.0001) and women (p = 0.013); for 2010-18, these measures in men were 1.3/103 (95%CI: 1.1-1.5/103) versus 1.9/103 (95%CI: 1.6-2.2/103), and in women were 1.4/103 (95%CI: 1.2-1.7/103) versus 1.7/103 (95%CI: 1.5-2.0/103). Diabetes mortality rates increased significantly over 2001-18 in men (unaltered: p < 0.0001; alternative: p = 0.0007) and increased overall in women (unaltered: p = 0.0015; alternative: p = 0.014).

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes reporting in Part 1 of the MCCD, without potentially fatal diabetes complications, has led to over-estimation of diabetes, and under-estimation of CVD, as UCoD in Tonga. This indicates the importance of controlling various modifiable risks for atherosclerotic CVD (including stroke) including hypertension, tobacco use, and saturated fat intake, besides obesity and diabetes. Accurate certification of diabetes as a direct cause of death (Part 1) or contributory factor (Part 2) is needed to ensure that valid UCoD are assigned. Examination of multiple cause-of-death data can improve understanding of the underlying causes of premature mortality to better inform health planning.

A Comparative Analysis of Lung Cancer Incidence and Tobacco Consumption in Canada, Norway and Sweden: A Population-Based Study

Risk factors for developing lung cancer include tobacco smoking, exposure to second-hand smoke, radon gas, asbestos and other carcinogens, as well as air pollution and aging. Canada, Norway and Sweden are three Arctic countries that are very similar in socioeconomic status, similar in the social determinants of health and many environmental factors, including current smoking rates. However, lung cancer incidence rates differ significantly among the three countries. Since tobacco smoking is the principal risk factor for developing lung cancer, and there is a long lag time between tobacco consumption and lung cancer incidence at the population average level, a comparative analysis is conducted with historical data available publicly in the three countries to demonstrate how tobacco consumption in the past impacts lung cancer incidence decades late. The analysis shows that lung cancer incidence rates increase proportionally with the increasing tobacco consumption rates with a lag time of 20-30 years. On average, one more cigarette smoked per person per day can increase lung cancer cases by 2 to 5 per 100,000 population.

The lag effect of 24-year tobacco consumption on lung cancer mortality in Henan Province, China, 1992 to 2016

Tobacco exposure is the major risk factor for lung cancer. Previous studies have shown that there is a correlation between tobacco consumption and lung cancer mortality, but they do not show a specific trend. This study established the polynomial distributed lags (PDLs) model to explore the distributional lag effect between tobacco consumption and lung cancer mortality by using the lung cancer mortality rate of residents in Henan Province and the annual per capita tobacco consumption data from 1992 to 2016 and adopted dynamic simulation prediction method to predict lung cancer mortality for the next 20 years. We found that per capita tobacco consumption had a 10-year lag effect on lung cancer mortality. The harm of tobacco consumption did not show in the first 4 years, but after a lag of 4 years or more, the lung cancer mortality in men was higher than that in women, with a peak effect occurring 10 years later. The prediction showed that if per capita tobacco consumption was controlled, lung cancer mortality would show a steady decline trend after 10 years. These results suggested that tobacco consumption and lung cancer mortality were asynchronous, with a lag effect of tobacco use on the occurrence of lung cancer.

An egalitarian society? Widening inequalities in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases in Australia, 2006-16

BACKGROUND

The recent slowdown in life expectancy increase in Australia has occurred concurrently with widening socioeconomic and geographical inequalities in all-cause mortality risk. We analysed whether, and to what extent, mortality inequalities among specific non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Australia at ages 35-74 years widened during 2006-16.

METHODS

Registered deaths that occurred during 2006-16 in Australia were analysed. Inequalities were measured by area socioeconomic quintile [ranging from Q1 (lowest) to Q5 (highest)] and remoteness (major cities, inner regional, outer regional/remote/very remote). Age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for 35-74 years were calculated and smoothed over time.

RESULTS

NCD mortality inequalities by area socioeconomic quintile widened; the ratio of Q1 to Q5 ASDR for males increased from 1.96 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.91-2.01] in 2011 to 2.08 (2.03-2.13) in 2016, and for females from 1.78 (1.73-1.84) to 1.96 (1.90-2.02). Moreover, Q1 NCD ASDRs did not clearly decline from 2011 to 2016. CVD mortality inequalities were wider than for all NCDs. There were particularly large increases in smoking-related mortality inequalities. In 2016, mortality inequalities were especially high for chronic respiratory diseases, alcohol-related causes and diabetes. NCD mortality rates outside major cities were higher than within major cities, and these differences widened during 2006-16. Higher mortality rates in inner regional areas than in major cities were explained by socioeconomic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Widening of inequalities in premature mortality rates is a major public health issue in Australia in the context of slowing mortality decline. Inequalities are partly explained by major risk factors for CVDs and NCDs: being overweight or obese, lack of exercise, poor diet and smoking. There is a need for urgent policy responses that consider socioeconomic disadvantage.

Cancer incidence and cancer death in relation to tobacco smoking in a population-based Australian cohort study

Tobacco smoke is a known carcinogen, but the magnitude of smoking-related cancer risk depends on country-specific, generational smoking patterns. We quantified cancer risk in relation to smoking in a population-based cohort, the 45 and Up Study (2006-2009) in New South Wales, Australia. Cox proportional hazards regressions estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HR) by self-reported smoking history at baseline (2006-2009) for incident, primary cancers via linkage to cancer registry data to 2013 and cancer death data to 2015. Among 229 028 participants aged ≥45 years, 18 475 cancers and 5382 cancer deaths occurred. Current-smokers had increased risks of all cancers combined (HR = 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-1.51), cancers of the lung (HR = 17.66, 95%CI, 14.65-21.29), larynx (HR = 11.29, 95%CI, 5.49-23.20), head-and-neck (HR = 2.53, 95%CI, 1.87-3.41), oesophagus (HR = 3.84, 95%CI, 2.33-6.35), liver (HR = 4.07, 95%CI, 2.55-6.51), bladder (HR = 3.08, 95%CI, 2.00-4.73), pancreas (HR = 2.68, 95%CI, 1.93-3.71), colorectum (HR = 1.31, 95%CI, 1.09-1.57) and unknown primary site (HR = 3.26, 95%CI, 2.19-4.84) versus never-smokers. Hazards increased with increasing smoking intensity; compared to never-smokers, lung cancer HR = 9.22 (95%CI, 5.14-16.55) for 1-5 cigarettes/day and 38.61 (95%CI, 25.65-58.13) for >35 cigarettes/day. Lung cancer risk was lower with quitting at any age but remained higher than never-smokers for quitters aged >25y. By age 80y, an estimated 48.3% of current-smokers (41.1% never-smokers) will develop cancer, and 14% will develop lung cancer, including 7.7% currently smoking 1-5 cigarettes/day and 26.4% for >35 cigarettes/day (1.0% never-smokers). Cancer risk for Australian smokers is significant, even for 'light' smokers. These contemporary estimates underpin the need for continued investment in strategies to prevent smoking uptake and facilitate cessation, which remain key to reducing cancer morbidity and mortality worldwide.

Changes in cancer incidence and mortality in Australia over the period 1996-2015

OBJECTIVE

A previous Australian study compared the observed numbers of cancer cases and deaths in 2007 with the expected numbers based on 1987 rates. This study examines the impact of cancer rate changes over the 20-year period 1996-2015, for people aged under 75 years.

RESULTS

The overall age-standardised cancer incidence rate increased from 350.7 in 1995 to 364.4 per 100,000 in 2015. Over the period 1996-2015, there were 29,226 (2.0%) more cases (males: 5940, 0.7%; females: 23,286, 3.7%) than expected numbers based on 1995 rates. Smaller numbers of cases were observed compared to those expected for cancers of the lung for males and colorectum, and cancers with unknown primary. Larger numbers of cases were observed compared to those expected for cancers of the prostate, thyroid and female breast. The overall age-standardised cancer mortality rate decreased from 125.6 in 1995 to 84.3 per 100,000 in 2015. During 1996 to 2015 there were 106,903 (- 20.6%) fewer cancer deaths (males: - 69,007, - 22.6%; females: - 37,896, - 17.9%) than expected based on the 1995 mortality rates. Smaller numbers of deaths were observed compared to those expected for cancers of the lung, colorectum and female breast, and more cancer deaths were observed for liver cancer.

Slower increase in life expectancy in Australia than in other high income countries: the contributions of age and cause of death

OBJECTIVES

To compare life expectancy at birth in Australia during 1980-2016 with that in other high income countries; to estimate the contributions of age at death and cause of death to differences between Australia and these countries.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

Data on deaths by age, sex, and cause in Australia and 26 other high income countries obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Contributions of age, cause of death, and birth cohort to differences in life expectancy between Australia and other high income countries and to changes in the differences.

RESULTS

From 1981 to 2003, life expectancy at birth increased rapidly in Australia, both in absolute terms and in comparison with other high income countries. The main contributor to greater increases for males in Australia than in western Europe was lower mortality from ischaemic heart disease; compared with the United States, mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and transport-related injuries was lower. Since 2003, life expectancy has increased more slowly for both sexes than in most other high income countries, mainly because declines in mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer have slowed. Age-specific mortality for people born since the 1970s is higher in Australia than in most high income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent declines in mortality in Australia have been relatively modest. Together with the high prevalence of obesity and the limited scope for further increasing life expectancy by reducing the prevalence of smoking, this suggests that future life expectancy increases will be smaller than in other high income countries. Improved control of health risk factors will be required if further substantial life expectancy increases in Australia are to be achieved.

Lung cancer mortality in Australia in the twenty-first century: How many lives can be saved with effective tobacco control?

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the number of past and future lung cancer deaths that have already been averted by tobacco control initiatives in Australia, and to estimate the number of additional deaths averted under various smoking scenarios.

METHODS

We predicted lung cancer mortality rates and case numbers to 2100 using a previously validated generalized linear model based on age, birth cohort and population cigarette smoking exposure. We estimated the impact of various tobacco control scenarios: 'actual tobacco control' (incorporating the aggregate effect of past and current taxation, plain packaging, mass media campaigns and other initiatives) and scenarios where 10%, 5% and 0% smoking prevalence was achieved by 2025, all of which were compared to a counterfactual scenario with the highest historical smoking consumption level continuing into the future as if no tobacco control initiatives had been implemented.

RESULTS

Without tobacco control, there would have been an estimated 392,116 lung cancer deaths over the period 1956-2015; of these 20% (78,925 deaths; 75,839 males, 3086 females) have been averted due to tobacco control. However, if past and current measures continue to have the expected effect, an estimated 1.9 million deaths (1,579,515 males, 320,856 females; 67% of future lung cancer deaths) will be averted in 2016-2100. If smoking prevalence is reduced to 10%, 5% or 0% by 2025, an additional 97,432, 208,714 or 360,557 deaths could be averted from 2016 to 2100, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Tobacco control in Australia has had a dramatic impact on the number of people dying from lung cancer. Several hundred thousand more lung cancer deaths could be averted over the course of the century if close-to-zero smoking prevalence could be achieved in the next decade.

The setting of the rising sun? A recent comparative history of life expectancy trends in Japan and Australia

Introduction

Adult male and female mortality declines in Japan have been slower than in most high-income countries since the early 1990s. This study compares Japan’s recent life expectancy trends with the more favourable trends in Australia, measures the contribution of age groups and causes of death to differences in these trends, and places the findings in the context of the countries’ risk factor transitions.

Methods

The study utilises data on deaths by age, sex and cause in Australia and Japan from 1950–2016 from the Global Burden of Disease Study. A decomposition method measures the contributions of various ages and causes to the male and female life expectancy gap and changes over four distinct phases during this period. Mortality differences by cohort are also assessed.

Findings

Japan’s two-year male life expectancy advantage over Australia in the 1980s closed in the following 20 years. The trend was driven by ages 45–64 and then 65–79 years, and the cohort born in the late 1940s. Over half of Australia’s gains were from declines in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality, with lung cancer, chronic respiratory disease and self-harm also contributing substantially. Since 2011 the trend has reversed again, and in 2016 Japan had a slightly higher male life expectancy. The advantage in Japanese female life expectancy widened over the period to 2.3 years in 2016. The 2016 gap was mostly from differential mortality at ages 65 years and over from IHD, chronic respiratory disease and cancers.

Conclusions

The considerable gains in Australian male life expectancy from declining non-communicable disease mortality are attributable to a range of risk factors, including declining smoking prevalence due to strong public health interventions. A recent reversal in life expectancy trends could continue because Japan has greater scope for further falls in smoking and far lower levels of obesity. Japan’s substantial female life expectancy advantage however could diminish in future because it is primarily due to lower mortality at old ages.

Lung cancer mortality in Australia: Projected outcomes to 2040

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to develop and validate a statistical model which uses past trends for lung cancer mortality and historical and current data on tobacco consumption to project lung cancer mortality rates into the future for Australia.

METHODS

We used generalized linear models (GLMs) with Poisson distribution including either age, birth cohort or period, and/or various measures of population tobacco exposure (considering cross-sectional smoking prevalence, cigarettes smoked and tar exposure per capita). Sex-specific models were fitted to data for 1956-2015 and age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates were projected forward to 2040. Possible lags of 20-30 years between tobacco exposure and lung cancer mortality were examined. The best model was selected using analysis of deviance. To validate the selected model, we temporarily re-fitted it to data for 1956-1990 and compared the projected rates to 2015 with the observed rates for 1991-2015.

RESULTS

The best fitting model used information on age, birth cohort and tar exposure per capita; close concordance with the observed data was achieved in the validation. The forward projections for lung cancer mortality using this model indicate that male and female age-standardized rates will decline over the period 2011-2015 to 2036-2040 from 27.2 to 15.1 per 100,000, and 15.8 to 11.8 per 100,000, respectively. However, due to population growth and ageing the number of deaths will increase by 7.9% for males and 57.9% for females; from 41,040 (24,831 males, 16,209 females) in 2011-2015 to 52,403 (26,805 males, 25,598 females) in 2036-2040.

CONCLUSION

In the context of the mature tobacco epidemic with past peaks in tobacco consumption for both males and females, lung cancer mortality rates are expected to continually decline over the next 25 years. However, the number of lung cancer deaths will continue to be substantial, and to increase, in Australia's ageing population.

8-year trends in physical activity, nutrition, TV viewing time, smoking, alcohol and BMI: A comparison of younger and older Queensland adults

Lifestyle behaviours significantly contribute to high levels of chronic disease in older adults. The aims of the study were to compare the prevalence and the prevalence trends of health behaviours (physical activity, fruit and vegetable consumption, fast food consumption, TV viewing, smoking and alcohol consumption), BMI and a summary health behaviour indicator score in older (65+ years) versus younger adults (18-65 years). The self-report outcomes were assessed through the Queensland Social Survey annually between 2007-2014 (n = 12,552). Regression analyses were conducted to compare the proportion of older versus younger adults engaging in health behaviours and of healthy weight in all years combined and examine trends in the proportion of younger and older adults engaging in health behaviours and of healthy weight over time. Older adults were more likely to meet recommended intakes of fruit and vegetable (OR = 1.43, 95%CI = 1.23-1.67), not consume fast food (OR = 2.54, 95%CI = 2.25-2.86) and be non-smokers (OR = 3.02, 95%CI = 2.53-3.60) in comparison to younger adults. Conversely, older adults were less likely to meet the physical activity recommendations (OR = 0.86, 95%CI = 0.78-0.95) and watch less than 14 hours of TV per week (OR = 0.65, 95%CI = 0.58-0.74). Overall, older adults were more likely to report engaging in 3, or at least 4 out of 5 healthy behaviours. The proportion of both older and younger adults meeting the physical activity recommendations (OR = 0.97, 95%CI = 0.95-0.98 and OR = 0.94, 95%CI = 0.91-0.97 respectively), watching less than 14 hours of TV per week (OR = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.94-0.99 and OR = 0.94, 95%CI = 0.90-0.99 respectively) and who were a healthy weight (OR = 0.95, 95%CI = 0.92-0.99 and OR = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.94-0.98 respectively) decreased over time. The proportion of older adults meeting the fruit and vegetable recommendations (OR = 0.90, 95%CI = 0.84-0.96) and not consuming fast food (OR = 0.94, 95%CI = 0.88-0.99) decreased over time. Although older adults meet more health behaviours than younger adults, the decreasing prevalence of healthy nutrition behaviours in this age group needs to be addressed.

Lung Cancer Epidemiology in Korea

Purpose

The current study was undertaken to examine the trends in the lung cancer incidence, mortality, and survival after a diagnosis in Korea.

Materials and Methods

Lung cancer incidence data according to the histologic type and mortality data were obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry and the Statistics Korea, respectively. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated, and the Joinpoint model and age-period-cohort analyses were used to describe the trends in the rates. The 5-year relative survival rates of lung cancer were also calculated.

Results

Although the number of new lung cancer cases increased between 1999 and 2012, the age-standardized incidence rate decreased by 0.9% per year in men, whereas the incidence in women increased by 1.7% per year over the same time. Until 2010, the most common histologic type in men was squamous cell carcinoma, then adenocarcinoma prevailed thereafter. Since 1999, the most frequent histological type in women was adenocarcinoma. The lung cancer mortality started to decrease in 2002, with a more apparent decline for the younger age groups in both men and women. Overall, the 5-year relative survival rates have improved significantly from 11.2% for men and 14.7% for women among patients diagnosed between 1993 and 1997 to 19.3% for men and 28.2% for women among patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2012, respectively. An improvement in survival rate was observed for all major histology groups.

Conclusion

The epidemiology of lung cancer in Korea has changed over a short time span, with decreasing mortality and improving survival rates. Further study is warranted to determine the cause of these changes.

Cancers in Australia in 2010 attributable to tobacco smoke

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) and numbers of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to tobacco smoking, both personal and by a partner.

METHODS

We used a modified Peto-Lopez approach to calculate the difference between the number of lung cancer cases observed and the number expected assuming the entire population developed lung cancer at the same rate as never smokers. For cancers other than lung, we applied the standard PAF formula using relative risks from a large cohort and derived notional smoking prevalence. To estimate the PAF for partners' smoking, we used the standard formula incorporating the proportion of non-smoking Australians living with an ever-smoking partner and relative risks associated with partner smoking.

RESULTS

An estimated 15,525 (13%) cancers in Australia in 2010 were attributable to tobacco smoke, including 8,324 (81%) lung, 1,973 (59%) oral cavity and pharynx, 855 (60%) oesophagus and 951 (6%) colorectal cancers. Of these, 136 lung cancers in non-smokers were attributable to partner tobacco smoke.

CONCLUSIONS

More than one in eight cancers in Australia is attributable to tobacco smoking and would be avoided if nobody smoked.

IMPLICATIONS

Strategies to reduce the prevalence of smoking remain a high priority for cancer control.

Lung cancer prevalence in New South Wales (Australia): Analysis of past trends and projection of future estimates

BACKGROUND

To provide a temporal analysis of lung cancer prevalence over two decades in New South Wales (NSW), Australia and projections of future lung cancer prevalence up to 2017.

METHODS

Data for lung cancer cases diagnosed in 1983-2007 with survival follow-up to the end of 2007 were extracted from the population-based NSW Central Cancer Registry. Five-year prevalence was calculated by the counting method at five time points (1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007) for which data were available, then historical prevalence trends (1987-2007) were extrapolated into 2008-2017.

RESULTS

For men, 5-year prevalence of lung cancer in NSW increased slowly in number from 1748 in 1987 to 2151 in 2007, although there was a 15% reduction in prevalence rates over the same time period. For women, there was a greater increase both in number (2.55 times) and rates (88%) between 1987 and 2007. Despite the narrowing gap in lung cancer prevalence between men and women, in 2007 the 5-year prevalence for men was still higher than that for women. However, if the past trends continue, it is expected that in 2017 the 5-year lung cancer prevalence for women in NSW will surpass that for men.

CONCLUSIONS

Our projections suggest that by 2017 the prevalence of lung cancer for women will be greater than that of men in NSW Australia. Further strengthening the current tobacco control measures should be considered a high priority in Australia, particularly for adolescents and women.

Incidence of oral cancer in Western Australia (1982-2009): Trends and regional variations

AIM

Oral cancer remains a significant issue for many communities of the world. In Australia, there are approximately 2000 new diagnoses each year, and the rates are growing. The divide between city and rural, rich and poor, is, in many countries, found to be linked to the incidence of oral cancer. The aim of this study was to determine the trends in the incidence of oropharyngeal cancer (specifically cancer of the parotid and major salivary glands, pharynx, and tongue) in Western Australia over a 27-year period, from 1982 to 2009, and determine the geographic distribution of incidence within the state.

METHODS

The de-identified data were provided by the Western Australian Cancer Registry, as oral cancer is a notifiable condition in Australia.

RESULTS

There were a total of 2801 cases reported with pharynx, tongue, major salivary glands and parotid cancers over a 27-year period: 73.2 percent were male and 26.8 percent were female. The age-standardized incidence rate was 67.4 per 100 000 persons per annum for pharyngeal cancer, 54.1 for tongue cancer, 22.2 for parotid gland cancer and 5.5 for major salivary gland cancer. The age-standardized rates for pharyngeal and tongue cancer (but not parotid) were higher in country areas of Western Australia than in the metropolitan areas. The burden of some site-specific oral cancers is continuing to rise. An increasing trend with older age is also consistent throughout the study period.

CONCLUSION

This study finds that the incidence of oral cancers in Western Australia is not inconsistent with other parts of Australia and fundamentally shows there is a rural-urban difference for oral cancer.

Lung cancer in Victoria: are we making progress?

OBJECTIVES

To identify areas to improve patient management in lung cancer, which remains the greatest cause of death from cancer in Australia.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective survey of all cases of lung cancer reported to the Victorian Cancer Registry from 1 January to 30 June 2003 and followed up for 5 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Patient and disease characteristics, investigations, staging, treatment, cause of death, survival.

RESULTS

841 patients were included. Smoking data were available for 799, of whom 63 (7.9%) had never smoked. Of 655 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cases, 198 (30.2%) were treated with curative intent, 125 (19.1%) by surgery and 73 (11.1%) by radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy. Only 7 (6.9%) of surgical patients with complete R0 resection had adjuvant chemotherapy. Of 101 small cell lung cancer (SCLC) cases, a third had limited stage disease which was mostly treated with curative intent by chemotherapy with or without radiotherapy. Patients whose cases were discussed at a multidisciplinary meeting (MDM) were significantly more likely to receive anticancer treatment and had longer survival; on multivariate analysis, MDM discussion was an independent prognostic factor. Compared with a similar survey 10 years earlier, the median age of patients diagnosed with lung cancer had increased by almost 3 years, the proportion of affected men decreased and adenocarcinoma was more frequent, while 10% of patients continued to have no pathologically confirmed diagnosis and 26% continued to receive no anticancer treatment. The number of patients with NSCLC who went on to a definitive surgical procedure fell with no detriment to survival, which likely reflected better staging with the introduction of positron emission tomography scanning.

CONCLUSIONS

Opportunities to improve patient management included increasing the proportion with a pathologically confirmed diagnosis and greater use of postsurgical adjuvant chemotherapy. A high proportion of patients received no treatment, with underuse of chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Critically, the low rate of case discussions at MDMs needs to increase. However, effective strategies are required to identify cases early, as over two-thirds currently present with incurable disease.

Managing the changing burden of cancer in Asia

Asia accounts for 60% of the world population and half the global burden of cancer. The incidence of cancer cases is estimated to increase from 6.1 million in 2008 to 10.6 million in 2030, due to ageing and growing populations, lifestyle and socioeconomic changes. Striking variations in ethnicity, sociocultural practices, human development index, habits and dietary patterns are reflected in the burden and pattern of cancer in different regions. The existing and emerging cancer patterns and burden in different regions of Asia call for political recognition of cancer as an important public health problem and for balanced investments in public and professional awareness. Prevention as well as early detection of cancers leads to both better health outcomes and considerable savings in treatment costs. Cancer health services are still evolving, and require substantial investment to ensure equitable access to cancer care for all sections of the population. In this review, we discuss the changing burden of cancer in Asia, along with appropriate management strategies. Strategies should promote healthy ageing via healthy lifestyles, tobacco and alcohol control measures, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, cancer screening services, and vertical investments in strengthening cancer healthcare infrastructure to improve equitable access to services.

Smoking, mental illness and socioeconomic disadvantage: analysis of the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing

BACKGROUND

High rates of smoking and lower rates of smoking cessation are known to be associated with common mental disorders such as anxiety and depression, and with individual and community measures of socioeconomic status. It is not known to what extent mental illness and socioeconomic status might be jointly associated with smoking behaviour. We set out to examine the relationship between mental illness, measures of socioeconomic disadvantage and both current smoking and smoking cessation rates.

METHODS

We used data from the 2007 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing to examine the relationship between mental illness, socioeconomic status and both current smoking and smoking cessation. We used cross-classified tables and logistic regression to examine the relationship between psychosocial and sociodemographic predictors and current smoking. We also used proportional hazards regression to examine the relationship between the factors and smoking cessation.

RESULTS

Both mental illness and socioeconomic status were independently associated with current smoking and with lower likelihood of smoking cessation, with gradients in smoking by mental health status being observed within levels of socioeconomic indicators and vice versa. Having a mental illness in the past 12 months was the most prevalent factor strongly associated with smoking, affecting 20.0% of the population, associated with increased current smoking (OR 2.43; 95% CI: 1.97-3.01) and reduced likelihood of smoking cessation (HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.65-0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

The association between mental illness and smoking is not explained by the association between mental illness and socioeconomic status. There are strong socioeconomic and psychosocial gradients in both current smoking and smoking cessation. Incorporating knowledge of the other adverse factors in smokers' lives may increase the penetration of tobacco control interventions in population groups that have historically benefitted less from these activities.