Cardiovascular risk prediction in healthy older people

Classification rule for ten year MACE Risk in primary care tarragona older adults with type2 diabetes: a CHAID decision-tree analysis

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality among individuals with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). This study developed a simple tool to predict the 10-year risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in T2DM patients over 60 years within primary care.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on patients with T2DM who were over 60 years old in Tarragona, spanning from 01/01/2009-31/12/2018. Primary outcome was MACE, which included acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, and cardiovascular death, all of which were identified using ICD-9 diagnostic codes. Other variables were age, sex, comorbidities, risk factors, as well as clinical and laboratory parameters. A Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) decision tree classification was utilized to assess the 10-year risk of developing a new MACE.

RESULTS

Five thousand five hundred fifty-four patients with T2DM were identified. Among the 4,666 with T2DM and without previous MACE, 779 patients went on to develop a new MACE. The CHAID model categorizes individuals into three risk groups based on the primary predictor variable, which is age. For patients under the age of 71 with hypertension, having HDL-c levels less than 39 mg/dL increases the risk of developing a new MACE to 19.9%. Among individuals aged 71 to 75 years, having fasting glucose levels greater than 177 mg/dL elevates the risk to 27.2%.

CONCLUSION

Classification trees based on CHAID allow for the development of decision rules and simplify the stratification of cardiovascular risk in patients with T2DM, making it a valuable tool for risk assessment within a primary care setting.

The mediating and joint effects of depression in the association between cardiovascular health and frailty in middle-aged and elderly people: evidence from NHANES

Objective

This study investigates the correlation between Life's Essential 8 (LE8), a cardiovascular health (CVH) metric, and frailty in middle-aged and elderly individuals in the United States, also examining how depression mediates this relationship.

Methods

Participants from the NHANES 2005-2018 were analyzed for correlations between LE8 and frailty, along with the combined effects of LE8 and depression using multiple logistic regression. Dose-response relationships were assessed using restricted cubic splines (RCS), and mediation analysis explored depression's role. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were conducted for result stability.

Results

The study included 8,982 participants, with 3,103 frailty events. A higher LE8 score was significantly associated with a reduced risk of frailty, with adjusted odds ratios for the medium and high CVH groups at 0.49 (95% CI: 0.40-0.58, p < 0.001) and 0.21 (95% CI: 0.13-0.33, p < 0.001), respectively. The RCS model showed a negative dose-response relationship. No significant association was found between LE8 and frailty in the depressed population, where depression mediated 32.13% of the relationship.

Conclusion

Maintaining good cardiovascular health, as measured by LE8, is key to reducing frailty risk in middle-aged and elderly individuals. This underscores the importance of cardiovascular health assessments and targeted health programs to improve quality of life.

Modest NT-proBNP Elevation in Septuagenarians Without Heart Failure Is Not Associated with Cardiac Alterations or Cardiovascular Outcomes

Background/Objectives: To assess the association between moderate N-terminal natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac alterations and prognosis in septuagenarians without heart failure (HF). Methods: From the STROKESTOP II screening study, 230 individuals aged 75/76 years with NT-proBNP < 900 ng/L were randomly selected. Subjects with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF), more than mild valvular disease, or HF were excluded. Echocardiography was performed. NT-proBNP ≥ 125 ng/L and paroxysmal AF (pAF) on thumb ECG were used as grouping variables. Participants were followed up during a median of 5 years for cardiovascular mortality, HF, AF, and cerebrovascular events. Cox regression analysis was employed for prognostic assessment. Results: Three groups were identified: SR ≥ 125 (n = 94, no pAF and NT-proBNP ≥ 125 ng/L), pAF (n = 77, pAF and NT-proBNP ≥ 125 ng/L), and controls (n = 30, no pAF and NT-proBNP < 125 ng/L). NT-proBNP was not associated with structural (left atrial volume and left ventricular (LV) mass) or functional (E/e', LV strain) alterations in any group (p > 0.05). Cardiovascular risk factors (HR: 4.6; CI = 1.7-12.3; p = 0.002), but not NT-proBNP (HR: 1.9; CI = 0.7-5.1; p = 0.2), entailed a prognostic value for the composite endpoint of HF, AF, and cardiovascular death. Conclusions: In septuagenarians without HF, modest NT-proBNP elevation was not associated with echocardiographic changes or prognosis.

Integrating Social Determinants of Health and Established Risk Factors to Predict Cardiovascular Disease Risk Among Healthy Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence underscores the significant impact of social determinants of health (SDoH) on cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, available CVD risk assessment tools often neglect SDoH. This study aimed to integrate SDoH with traditional risk factors to predict CVD risk.

METHODS

The data was sourced from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) longitudinal study, and its sub-study, the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP). The study included 12,896 people (5884 men and 7012 women) aged 70 or older who were initially free of CVD, dementia, and independence-limiting physical disability. The participants were followed for a median of eight years. CVD risk was predicted using state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models: Random Survival Forest (RSF), Deepsurv, and Neural Multi-Task Logistic Regression (NMTLR), incorporating both SDoH and traditional CVD risk factors as candidate predictors. The permutation-based feature importance method was further utilized to assess the predictive potential of the candidate predictors.

RESULTS

Among men, the RSF model achieved relatively good performance (C-index = 0.732, integrated brier score (IBS) = 0.071, 5-year and 10-year AUC = 0.657 and 0.676 respectively). For women, DeepSurv was the best-performing model (C-index = 0.670, IBS = 0.042, 5-year and 10-year AUC = 0.676 and 0.677 respectively). Regarding the contribution of the candidate predictors, for men, age, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and smoking, along with SDoH variables, were identified as the most significant predictors of CVD. For women, SDoH variables, such as social network, living arrangement, and education, predicted CVD risk better than the traditional risk factors, with age being the exception.

CONCLUSION

SDoH can improve the accuracy of CVD risk prediction and emerge among the main predictors for CVD. The influence of SDoH was greater for women than for men, reflecting gender-specific impacts of SDoH.

CircXYLT1 suppresses oxidative stress and promotes vascular remodeling in aging mice carotid artery injury model of atherosclerosis via PTBP1

Atherosclerosis and aortic aneurysms are prevalent cardiovascular diseases in the elderly, characterized by chronic inflammation and oxidative stress. This study explores the role of CircXYLT1 in regulating oxidative stress and vascular remodeling in age-related vascular diseases. RNA sequencing revealed a significant upregulation of CircXYLT1 in the vascular tissues of aged mice, highlighting its potential role in age-related vascular diseases. Using a carotid artery wire injury model, we performed adeno-associated virus (AAV)-mediated knockdown and overexpression of CircXYLT1. Key oxidative stress markers, including reactive oxygen species (ROS) and malondialdehyde (MDA), were measured. Knockdown of CircXYLT1 increased oxidative stress and reduced antioxidant protein expression (SOD, GPX), while overexpression led to decreased oxidative damage and enhanced vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) proliferation. Mechanistically, CircXYLT1 interacted with PTBP1, reducing its nuclear localization and modulating downstream chemokine signaling pathways. These findings suggest that CircXYLT1 plays a critical role in vascular remodeling and oxidative stress regulation, offering potential as a therapeutic target for managing cardiovascular diseases in aging populations.

Associations between MASLD, atrial fibrillation, cardiovascular events, mortality and aspirin use in older adults

The impact of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), the preferred nomenclature for NAFLD, on cardiovascular health and mortality among older adults is uncertain. As such, we aimed to identify whether MASLD increases the risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE) (a composite of fatal coronary heart disease [excluding heart failure], nonfatal myocardial infarction, or fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke), Atrial Fibrillation (AF), or all-cause mortality in older adults, and whether aspirin attenuates these risks in individuals with MASLD. This is a non-prespecified post-hoc analysis of the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) randomized trial. Participants were community dwelling well adults aged ≥ 70 years without a history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease or AF. Fatty Liver Index (FLI) was used to identify MASLD at baseline. FLI is a composite of anthropometric and biochemical markers used in epidemiologic studies to rule in and rule out hepatic steatosis. MACE and cause of death were adjudicated by clinical experts; AF was assessed by previously defined algorithm in ASPREE. 9,097 participants were stratified into groups according to FLI. In univariate analysis, prevalent MASLD (FLI ≥ 60 with evidence of metabolic dysfunction; n = 2,998 [33.0%]) was associated with an increased risk of MACE (HR 1.47 [95% CI 1.22-1.78]) and AF (HR 1.50 [95% CI 1.19-1.88] but not all-cause mortality (HR 1.04 [95% CI 0.91-1.19]). After adjusting for cardiovascular disease risk factors, only the association between MASLD and AF remained significant (HR 1.46 [95% CI 1.11-1.93]). Aspirin did not reduce the risk of MACE, death, or AF in the MASLD group. MASLD was associated with an increased hazard of incident AF, but not of MACE or all-cause mortality, in community dwelling older adults. Primary prevention with aspirin does not ameliorate these risks in older adults with MASLD.

Bias in machine learning applications to address non-communicable diseases at a population-level: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used in population and public health to support epidemiological studies, surveillance, and evaluation. Our objective was to conduct a scoping review to identify studies that use ML in population health, with a focus on its use in non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We also examine potential algorithmic biases in model design, training, and implementation, as well as efforts to mitigate these biases.

METHODS

We searched the peer-reviewed, indexed literature using Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CINAHL, Scopus, ACM Digital Library, Inspec, Web of Science's Science Citation Index, Social Sciences Citation Index, and the Emerging Sources Citation Index, up to March 2022.

RESULTS

The search identified 27 310 studies and 65 were included. Study aims were separated into algorithm comparison (n = 13, 20%) or disease modelling for population-health-related outputs (n = 52, 80%). We extracted data on NCD type, data sources, technical approach, possible algorithmic bias, and jurisdiction. Type 2 diabetes was the most studied NCD. The most common use of ML was for risk modeling. Mitigating bias was not extensively addressed, with most methods focused on mitigating sex-related bias.

CONCLUSION

This review examines current applications of ML in NCDs, highlighting potential biases and strategies for mitigation. Future research should focus on communicable diseases and the transferability of ML models in low and middle-income settings. Our findings can guide the development of guidelines for the equitable use of ML to improve population health outcomes.

The predictive value of the neutrophil/platelet ratio on in-hospital adverse events and long-term prognosis in patients with coronary artery disease after percutaneous coronary intervention and its possible internal mechanism

The neutrophil-to-platelet ratio (NPR) is considered to be an indicator of inflammatory status. The value of the NPR in predicting in-hospital adverse events (AEs) and long-term prognosis after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in coronary artery disease (CAD) patients has not yet been reported. Meanwhile, the mechanisms behind its predictive value for long-term prognosis remain unreported as well. The study retrospectively enrolled 7284 consecutive patients with CAD undergoing PCI from January 2012 to December 2018. Multivariable logistic regression analysis, multivariable Cox regression analysis, Kaplan‒Meier (KM) curve analysis, restricted cubic spline (RCS) curve analysis, and sensitivity analysis were used in the study. All-cause death was the endpoint of the study. According to the median value of the NPR, the patients were divided into two groups: the high group (NPR ≥ 0.02, n = 3736) and the low group (NPR < 0.02, n = 3548). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a high NPR was a risk factor for in-hospital AEs [odds ratio (OR) = 1.602, 95% CI 1.347-1.909, p = 0.001]. During a mean follow-up period of 3.01 ± 1.49 years, the multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that a high NPR affected the long-term prognosis of patients (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.03-1.45, p = 0.025) and cardiac death (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.14-1.95, p = 0.003). The subgroup analysis showed that the NPR was affected by age and sex. The mediation analysis identified that the effect of the NPR on long-term outcomes is partially mediated by serum creatinine (Scr) and triglycerides. The NPR may be a convenient indicator of in-hospital AEs and poor long-term and cardiac outcomes in CAD patients. It might have impacted prognosis through effects on kidney function and lipid metabolism.

Statin Therapy Reduces Radiation-Induced Cardiotoxicity in Patients With Breast Cancer Receiving Adjuvant Radiotherapy

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the efficacy of statin therapy in reducing major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) risk among patients with breast cancer undergoing breast-conserving surgery and adjuvant whole breast radiotherapy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry Database linked to the National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients diagnosed with left-sided early breast invasive ductal carcinoma between 2016 and 2019 were included. Propensity score matching was employed to compare MACE risk between statin users and nonusers. Cox regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for MACE, considering cumulative defined daily doses and daily defined doses of statins. Among 1481 patients undergoing breast-conserving surgery and adjuvant whole breast radiotherapy, statin use significantly reduced MACE risk (aHR, 0.34 [95% CI, 0.25-0.44]). Hydrophilic statins, particularly rosuvastatin and pravastatin, demonstrated the greatest risk reduction. Higher cumulative defined daily doses and daily intensity doses of statins were associated with lower MACE risk, indicating a dose-response relationship. The 5-year cumulative incidence of MACE was significantly lower in statin users compared with nonusers (12.24% versus 31.70%).

CONCLUSIONS

Statin therapy is associated with a reduced risk of MACE in patients with breast cancer undergoing breast-conserving surgery and adjuvant whole breast radiotherapy. Hydrophilic statins rosuvastatin and pravastatin exhibit the most pronounced cardioprotective effects. These findings suggest a potential role for statins in mitigating cardiovascular complications in this population and highlight the need for further research to optimize statin therapy in survivors of breast cancer undergoing radiotherapy.

What factors preventing the older adults in China from living longer: a machine learning study

BACKGROUND

The fact that most older people do not live long means that they do not have more time to pursue self-actualization and contribute value to society. Although there are many studies on the longevity of the elderly, the limitations of traditional statistics lack the good ability to study together the important influencing factors and build a simple and effective prediction model.

METHODS

Based on the the data of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), 2008-2018 cohort and 2014-2018 cohort were selected and 16 features were filtered and integrated. Five machine learning algorithms, Elastic-Net Regression (ENR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), were used to develop models and assessed by internal validation with CLHLS 2008-2018 cohort and temporal validation with CLHLS 2014-2018 cohort. Besides, the best performing model was explained and according to the variable importance results, simpler models would be developed.

RESULTS

The results showed that the model developed by XGBoost algorithm had the best performance with AUC of 0.788 in internal validation and 0.806 in temporal validation. Instrumental activity of daily living (IADL), leisure activity, marital status, sex, activity of daily living (ADL), cognitive function, overall plant-based diet index (PDI) and psychological resilience, 8 features were more important in the model. Finally, with these 8 features simpler models were developed, it was found that the model performance did not decrease in both internal and temporal validation.

CONCLUSIONS

The study indicated that the importance of these 8 factors for predicting the death of elderly people in China and built a simple machine learning model with good predictive performance. It can inspire future key research directions to promote longevity of the elderly, as well as in practical life to make the elderly healthy longevity, or timely end-of-life care for the elderly, and can use predictive model to aid decision-making.

Prediction of 30-day in-hospital mortality in older UGIB patients using a simplified risk score and comparison with AIMS65 score

BACKGROUND

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in older patients is associated with substantial in-hospital morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop and validate a simplified risk score for predicting 30-day in-hospital mortality in this population.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on data from 1899 UGIB patients aged ≥ 65 years admitted to a single medical center between January 2010 and December 2019. An additional cohort of 330 patients admitted from January 2020 to October 2021 was used for external validation. Variable selection was performed using five distinct methods, and models were generated using generalized linear models, random forest, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbors approaches. The developed score, "ABCAP," incorporated Albumin < 30 g/L, Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN) > 7.5 mmol/L, Cancer presence, Altered mental status, and Pulse rate > 100/min, each assigned a score of 1. Internal and external validation procedures compared the ABCAP score with the AIMS65 score.

RESULTS

In internal validation, the ABCAP score demonstrated robust predictive capability with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.878 (95% CI: 0.824-0.932), which was significantly better than the AIMS65 score (AUC: 0.827, 95% CI: 0.751-0.904), as revealed by the DeLong test (p = 0.048). External validation of the ABCAP score resulted in an AUC of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.709-0.889), while the AIMS65 score yielded an AUC of 0.743 (95% CI: 0.647-0.838), with no significant difference between the two scores based on the DeLong test (p = 0.16). However, the ABCAP score at the 3-5 score level demonstrated superior performance in identifying high-risk patients compared to the AIMS65 score. This score exhibited consistent predictive accuracy across variceal and non-variceal UGIB subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

The ABCAP score incorporates easily obtained clinical variables and demonstrates promising predictive ability for 30-day in-hospital mortality in older UGIB patients. It allows effective mortality risk stratification and showed slightly better performance than the AIMS65 score. Further cohort validation is required to confirm generalizability.

Prognostic Value of Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Population

Importance

Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies.

Objective

To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population-based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years.

Exposure

Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses.

Results

The analyses included 164 054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17 211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people.

Conclusions and Relevance

Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

Accelerated Aging Induced by an Unhealthy High-Fat Diet: Initial Evidence for the Role of Nrf2 Deficiency and Impaired Stress Resilience in Cellular Senescence

High-fat diets (HFDs) have pervaded modern dietary habits, characterized by their excessive saturated fat content and low nutritional value. Epidemiological studies have compellingly linked HFD consumption to obesity and the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Moreover, the synergistic interplay of HFD, obesity, and diabetes expedites the aging process and prematurely fosters age-related diseases. However, the underlying mechanisms driving these associations remain enigmatic. One of the most conspicuous hallmarks of aging is the accumulation of highly inflammatory senescent cells, with mounting evidence implicating increased cellular senescence in the pathogenesis of age-related diseases. Our hypothesis posits that HFD consumption amplifies senescence burden across multiple organs. To scrutinize this hypothesis, we subjected mice to a 6-month HFD regimen, assessing senescence biomarker expression in the liver, white adipose tissue, and the brain. Aging is intrinsically linked to impaired cellular stress resilience, driven by dysfunction in Nrf2-mediated cytoprotective pathways that safeguard cells against oxidative stress-induced senescence. To ascertain whether Nrf2-mediated pathways shield against senescence induction in response to HFD consumption, we explored senescence burden in a novel model of aging: Nrf2-deficient (Nrf2+/-) mice, emulating the aging phenotype. Our initial findings unveiled significant Nrf2 dysfunction in Nrf2+/- mice, mirroring aging-related alterations. HFD led to substantial obesity, hyperglycemia, and impaired insulin sensitivity in both Nrf2+/- and Nrf2+/+ mice. In control mice, HFD primarily heightened senescence burden in white adipose tissue, evidenced by increased Cdkn2a senescence biomarker expression. In Nrf2+/- mice, HFD elicited a significant surge in senescence burden across the liver, white adipose tissue, and the brain. We postulate that HFD-induced augmentation of senescence burden may be a pivotal contributor to accelerated organismal aging and the premature onset of age-related diseases.

Empirically derived dietary patterns are associated with major adverse cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality, and congestive cardiac failure in older men: The Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project

BACKGROUND

Diet is associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the associations between empirically derived dietary patterns and MACE.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

The Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project, Sydney, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

539 community-dwelling older Australian men aged 75 years and older.

METHODS

Men underwent dietary assessment using a validated dietitian-administered diet history questionnaire. Cox regression analyses were conducted between MACE and the three dietary patterns identified from factor analysis. Five-point MACE comprised of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), congestive cardiac failure (CCF), coronary revascularisation, and/or ischaemic stroke. Four-point MACE included the four endpoints of MI, CCF, coronary revascularisation, and/or ischaemic stroke, and excluded all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

At a median of 5.3 (IQR 4.6-6.3) years of follow-up, the incidences were: five-point MACE 31.2% (n = 168); four-point MACE excluding all-cause mortality 17.8% (n = 96); all-cause mortality 20.1% (n = 111); CCF 11.3% (n = 61); MI 3.7% (n = 20); stroke 3.2% (n = 17); and coronary revascularisation 3.1% (n = 15). In fully adjusted analyses, compared to the bottom tertile, the middle tertile of 'vegetables-legumes-seafood' dietary pattern was associated with reduced five-point MACE (HR 0.67 [95% CI: 0.45, 0.99, P = .047]), and CCF (HR 0.31 [95% CI: 0.15, 0.65, P = .002]), whilst the middle tertile of 'wholegrains-milk-other fruits' dietary pattern was associated with increased five-point MACE (HR 1.78 [95% CI: 1.17, 2.70, P = .007]), four-point MACE (HR 1.92 [95% CI: 1.12, 3.30, P = .018]), and CCF (HR 2.33 [95% CI: 1.17, 4.65, P = .016]). For the 'discretionary-starchy vegetables-processed meats' dietary pattern, a higher score was associated with increased five-point MACE (HR 1.33 [95% CI: 1.09, 1.62, P = .004]), and all-cause mortality (HR 1.63 [95% CI: 1.26, 2.12, P < .001]), and compared to the bottom tertile, the top tertile was associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR 2.26 [95% CI: 1.27, 4.00, P = .005]).

CONCLUSION

Older men may benefit from consuming a 'vegetables-legumes-seafood' dietary pattern rather than 'discretionary-starchy vegetables-processed meats' and 'wholegrains-milk-other fruits' dietary patterns for the prevention of MACE.

Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events in Geriatric Patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnea: An Inpatient Sample Analysis

BACKGROUND

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of major cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). However, data on the burden and predictors of MACCE in geriatric patients with OSA (G-OSA) remain limited.

METHODS

Using the National Inpatient Sample from 2018, we identified G-OSA admissions (age ≥ 65 years) and divided them into non-MACCE vs. MACCE (all-cause mortality, stroke, acute myocardial infarction, and cardiac arrest). We compared the demographics and comorbidities in both cohorts and extracted the odds ratio (multivariate analysis) of MACCE and associated in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Out of 1,141,120 geriatric obstructive sleep apnea G-OSA admissions, 9.9% (113,295) had MACCE. Males, Asians, or the Pacific Islander/Native American race, and patients from the lowest income quartile revealed a higher MACCE rate. Significant clinical predictors of MACCE in elderly OSA patients on multivariable regression analysis in decreasing odds were pulmonary circulation disease (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.31-1.66), coagulopathy (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.35-1.50), peripheral vascular disease (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.28-1.40), prior sudden cardiac arrest (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.11-1.62), prior myocardial infarction (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.22-1.33), fluid and electrolyte imbalances (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.20-1.29), male sex (OR 1.22, 95% CI-1.18-1.26), hyperlipidemia (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.16-1.24), low household income (OR 1.19, CI 1.13-1.26), renal failure (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.12-1.19), diabetes (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.10-1.17), metastatic cancer (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.03-1.25), and prior stroke or TIA (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07-1.17) (All p value < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

This study emphasizes the significant association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and major cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) in the geriatric population. Among the elderly OSA patients, a substantial 9.9% were found to have MACCE, with specific demographics like males, Asian or Pacific Islander/Native American individuals, and those from the lowest income quartile being particularly vulnerable. The study sheds light on several significant clinical predictors, with pulmonary circulation disease, coagulopathy, and peripheral vascular disease topping the list. The highlighted predictors provide valuable insights for clinicians, allowing for better risk stratification and targeted interventions in this vulnerable patient cohort. Further research is essential to validate these findings and inform how tailored therapeutic approaches for geriatric OSA patients can mitigate MACCE risk.

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

Elderly individuals with a high risk for MACCE should undergo routine OSA screening using tools like the sensitive STOP-BANG Questionnaire. Implementing CPAP treatment can enhance cardiovascular outcomes in these patients.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and associated risk factors in a medicare population without prior CVD history: an analysis using statistical and machine learning algorithms

There is limited information on predicting incident cardiovascular outcomes among high- to very high-risk populations such as the elderly (≥ 65 years) in the absence of prior cardiovascular disease and the presence of non-cardiovascular multi-morbidity. We hypothesized that statistical/machine learning modeling can improve risk prediction, thus helping inform care management strategies. We defined a population from the Medicare health plan, a US government-funded program mostly for the elderly and varied levels of non-cardiovascular multi-morbidity. Participants were screened for cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary or peripheral artery disease (CAD or PAD), heart failure (HF), atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic stroke (IS), transient ischemic attack (TIA), and myocardial infarction (MI) for a 3-yr period in the comorbid history. They were followed up for up to 45.2 months. Analyses included descriptive approaches in terms of incidence rates and density ratios, and inferential in terms of main effect statistical/complex machine learning modeling. The contemporary risk factors of interest spanned across the domains of comorbidity, lifestyle, and healthcare utilization history. The cohort consisted of 154,551 individuals (mean age 68.8 years; 62.2% female). The overall crude incidence rate of CVD events was 9.9 new cases per 100 person-years. The highest rates among its component outcomes were obtained for CAD or PAD (3.6 for each), followed by HF (2.2) and AF (1.8), then IS (1.3), and finally TIA (1.0) and MI (0.9).Model performance was modest in terms of discriminatory power (C index: 0.67, 95%CI 0.667-0.674 for training; and 0.668, 95%CI 0.663-0.673 for validation data), equal agreement between predicted and observed events for calibration purposes, and good clinical utility in terms of a net benefit of 15 true positives per 100 patients relative to the All-patient treatment strategy. Complex models based on machine learning algorithms yielded incrementally better discriminatory power and much improved goodness-of-fitness tests from those based on main effect statistical modeling. This Medicare population represents a highly vulnerable group for incident CVD events. This population would benefit from an integrated approach to their care and management, including attention to their comorbidities and lifestyle factors, as well as medication adherence.

Paraoxonase/Arylesterase Activity of Serum Paraoxonase-1 and Schizophrenia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The presence of a pro-oxidant state in patients with schizophrenia may account for the increased risk of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease in this group and supports the potential utility of circulating biomarkers of oxidative stress for risk stratification and management. We investigated this issue by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between the circulating concentrations of paraoxonase-1, an antioxidant calcium-dependent high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-associated esterase, with paraoxonase and arylesterase activity in schizophrenia. We searched electronic databases from inception to 31 May 2023 for studies investigating paraoxonase-1 in patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls and assessed the risk of bias and the certainty of evidence (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42023435442). Thirteen studies were identified for analysis. There were no significant between-group differences in paraoxonase (standard mean difference, SMD = 0.12, 95% CI -0.23 to 0.48, p = 0.50; extremely low certainty of evidence) or arylesterase activity (SMD = -0.08, 95% CI -0.39 to 0.23, p = 0.61; very low certainty of evidence). However, in meta-regression and subgroup analysis we observed significant associations between the SMD of paraoxonase and age (p = 0.003), HDL-cholesterol (p = 0.029), and study country (p = 0.04), and the SMD of arylesterase and age (p = 0.007), body mass index (p = 0.012), HDL-cholesterol (p = 0.002), and pharmacological treatment for schizophrenia (p < 0.001). In the absence of overall between-group differences, our systematic review and meta-analysis suggests that alterations in paraoxonase-1 may reflect a pro-oxidant state in specific subgroups of patients with schizophrenia that require further assessment in appropriately designed studies.

Using the photoplethysmography method to monitor age-related changes in the cardiovascular system

Introduction: Aging is a physiological process characterized by progressive changes in all organ systems. In the last few decades, the elderly population has been growing, so the scientific community is focusing on the investigation of the aging process, all in order to improve the quality of life in elderly. One of the biggest challenges in studying the impact of the aging on the human body represents the monitoring of the changes that inevitably occur in arterial blood vessels. Therefore, the medical community has invested a great deal of effort in studying and discovering new methods and tools that could be used to monitor the changes in arterial blood vessels caused by the aging process. The goal of our research was to develop a new diagnostic method using a photoplethysmographic sensor and to examine the impact of the aging process on the cardiovascular system in adults. Long-term recorded arterial blood flow waveforms were analyzed using detrended fluctuation analysis. Materials and Methods: The study included 117 respondents, aged 20-70 years. The waveform of the arterial blood flow was recorded for 5 min, with an optical sensor placed above the left common carotid artery, simultaneously with a single-channel ECG. For each cardiac cycle, the blood flow amplitude was determined, and a new time series was formed, which was analyzed non-linearly (DFA method). The values of the scalar coefficients α 1 and α 2, particularly their ratio (α 1/α 2) were obtained, which were then monitored in relation to the age of the subjects. Result: The values of the scalar ratio (α 1/α 2) were significantly different between the subjects older and younger than 50 years. The value of the α 1/α 2 decreased exponentially with the aging. In the population of middle-aged adults, this ratio had a value around 1, in young adults the value was exclusively higher than 1 and in older adults the value was exclusively lower than 1. Conclusion: The results of this study indicated that the aging led to a decrease in the α 1/α 2 in the population of healthy subjects. With this non-invasive method, changes in the cardiovascular system due to aging can be detected and monitored.

Predictors of worse outcome after postponing non-emergency cardiac interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

Deferral of non-emergency cardiac procedures is associated with increased early emergency cardiovascular hospitalisation. This study aimed to identify predictors of worse clinical outcome after deferral of non-emergency cardiovascular interventions.

METHODS

This observational case-control study included consecutive patients whose non-emergency cardiac intervention has been postponed during COVID-19-related lockdown between 19 March and 30 April 2020 (n=193). Cox regression was performed to identify predictors of the combined 1-year end point emergency cardiovascular hospitalisation and death. All patients undergoing non-emergency interventions in the corresponding time period 2019 served as control group (n=216).

RESULTS

The combined end point of death and emergency cardiovascular hospitalisation occurred in 70 (36.3%) of 193 patients with a postponed cardiovascular intervention. The planned intervention was deferred by a median of 23 (19-36) days. Arterial hypertension (HR 2.27; 95% CI 1.00 to 5.12; p=0.049), chronic kidney disease (HR 1.89; 95% CI 1.03 to 3.49; p=0.041) as well as severe valvular heart disease (HR 3.08; 95% CI 1.68 to 5.64; p<0.001) were independent predictors of death or emergency hospitalisation. Kaplan-Maier estimators of the combined end point were 31% in patients with arterial hypertension, 56% in patients with severe valvular heart disease and 77% with both risk factors (HR 12.4, 95% CI 3.8 to 40.7; p<0.001) and only 9% in patients without these risk factors (log rank p<0.001). N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) cut-point of ≥1109 pg/mL best predicts the occurrence of primary end point event in deferred patients (area under the curve 0.71; p<0.001; sensitivity 63.8%, specificity 69.4%).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that patients with either arterial hypertension, chronic kidney or severe valvular heart disease are at very high risk for emergency hospitalisation and increased mortality in case of postponed cardiac interventions even in supposed stable clinical status. Risk seems to be even higher in patients suffering from a combination of these conditions. If the ongoing or future pandemics force hospitals again to postpone cardiac interventions, the biomarker NT-proBNP is an applicable parameter for outpatient monitoring to identify those at risk for adverse cardiovascular events.

A platform for phenotyping disease progression and associated longitudinal risk factors in large-scale EHRs, with application to incident diabetes complications in the UK Biobank

Objective

Modern healthcare data reflect massive multi-level and multi-scale information collected over many years. The majority of the existing phenotyping algorithms use case-control definitions of disease. This paper aims to study the time to disease onset and progression and identify the time-varying risk factors that drive them.

Materials and Methods

We developed an algorithmic approach to phenotyping the incidence of diseases by consolidating data sources from the UK Biobank (UKB), including primary care electronic health records (EHRs). We focused on defining events, event dates, and their censoring time, including relevant terms and existing phenotypes, excluding generic, rare, or semantically distant terms, forward-mapping terminology terms, and expert review. We applied our approach to phenotyping diabetes complications, including a composite cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcome, diabetic kidney disease (DKD), and diabetic retinopathy (DR), in the UKB study.

Results

We identified 49 049 participants with diabetes. Among them, 1023 had type 1 diabetes (T1D), and 40 193 had type 2 diabetes (T2D). A total of 23 833 diabetes subjects had linked primary care records. There were 3237, 3113, and 4922 patients with CVD, DKD, and DR events, respectively. The risk prediction performance for each outcome was assessed, and our results are consistent with the prediction area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve (AUC) of standard risk prediction models using cohort studies.

Discussion and Conclusion

Our publicly available pipeline and platform enable streamlined curation of incidence events, identification of time-varying risk factors underlying disease progression, and the definition of a relevant cohort for time-to-event analyses. These important steps need to be considered simultaneously to study disease progression.

Role of endocrine PACAP in age-related diseases

Pituitary adenylate cyclase activating polypeptide (PACAP) is a conserved neuropeptide, which confers diverse anti-aging endocrine and paracrine/autocrine effects, including anti-apoptotic, anti-inflammatory and antioxidant action. The results of the in vivo and in vitro experiments show that increasing emphasis is being placed on the diagnostic/prognostic biomarker potential of this neuropeptide in a wide array of age-related diseases. After the initial findings regarding the presence and alteration of PACAP in different body fluids in physiological processes, an increasing number of studies have focused on the changes of its levels in various pathological conditions associated with advanced aging. Until 2016 - when the results of previous human studies were reviewed - a vast majority of the studies had dealt with age-related neurological diseases, like cerebrovascular and neurodegenerative diseases, multiple sclerosis, as well as some other common diseases in elderly such as migraine, traumatic brain injury and post-traumatic stress disorder, chronic hepatitis and nephrotic syndrome. The aim of this review is to summarize the old and the new results and highlight those 'classical' and emerging clinical fields in which PACAP may become subject to further investigation as a diagnostic and/or prognostic biomarker in age-related diseases.

Haem Iron Intake Is Associated with Increased Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events, All-Cause Mortality, Congestive Cardiac Failure, and Coronary Revascularisation in Older Men: The Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project

BACKGROUND

Nutritional intake can influence major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Dietary iron is found in two forms: haem-iron (HI) only found in animal sources and non-haem iron (NHI) present mostly in plant sources.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the associations between dietary iron intakes with MACE and iron status biomarkers.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

The Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project, Sydney, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

539 community-dwelling older Australian men aged 75 years and older.

METHODS

Men underwent nutritional assessment using a validated diet history questionnaire. Entries were converted to food groups and nutrients. The dietary calculation was used to derive HI and NHI intakes from total iron intakes. Analyses of iron intakes with iron status biomarkers were conducted using linear regression, and with MACE and individual endpoints were conducted using Cox regression. Five-point MACE comprised of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), congestive cardiac failure (CCF), coronary revascularisation, and/or ischaemic stroke. Four-point MACE included the four endpoints of MI, CCF, coronary revascularisation, and/or ischaemic stroke, and excluded all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

At a median of 5.3 (4.6 - 6.3) years follow-up, the incidences were: 31.2% (n = 168) five-point MACE, 17.8% (n = 96) four-point MACE excluding all-cause mortality, 20.1% (n = 111) all-cause mortality, 11.3% (n = 61) CCF, and 3.1% (n = 15) coronary revascularisation. In adjusted analyses, higher HI intake (per 1mg increment) was associated with increased five-point MACE (HR: 1.45 [95% CI: 1.16, 1.80, P = .001]), four-point MACE excluding all-cause mortality (HR: 1.64 [95% CI: 1.26, 2.15, P <.001]), all-cause mortality (HR: 1.51 [95% CI: 1.15, 1.99, P = .003]), CCF (HR: 2.08 [95% CI: 1.45, 2.98, P <.001]), and coronary revascularisation (HR: 1.89 [95% CI: 1.15, 3.10, P = .012]). Compared with the bottom tertile of NHI intake, the middle tertile of NHI intake was associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.56 [95% CI: 0.33, 0.96, P = .035]). Total iron intake was not associated with MACE and individual endpoints. Dietary iron intakes were not associated with serum iron and haemoglobin.

CONCLUSION

Higher haem iron intake was independently associated with increased risks of five-point MACE, four-point MACE excluding all-cause mortality, all-cause mortality, CCF, and coronary revascularisation in older men over 5 years.