Stochastic pattern formation and spontaneous polarisation: the linear noise approximation and beyond

Fluctuation spectra of large random dynamical systems reveal hidden structure in ecological networks

Understanding the relationship between complexity and stability in large dynamical systems-such as ecosystems-remains a key open question in complexity theory which has inspired a rich body of work developed over more than fifty years. The vast majority of this theory addresses asymptotic linear stability around equilibrium points, but the idea of 'stability' in fact has other uses in the empirical ecological literature. The important notion of 'temporal stability' describes the character of fluctuations in population dynamics, driven by intrinsic or extrinsic noise. Here we apply tools from random matrix theory to the problem of temporal stability, deriving analytical predictions for the fluctuation spectra of complex ecological networks. We show that different network structures leave distinct signatures in the spectrum of fluctuations, and demonstrate the application of our theory to the analysis of ecological time-series data of plankton abundances.

Plastic systemic inhibition controls amplitude while allowing phase pattern in a stochastic neural field model

We investigate oscillatory phase pattern formation and amplitude control for a linearized stochastic neuron field model by simulating Mexican-hat-coupled stochastic processes. We find, for several choices of parameters, that spatial pattern formation in the temporal phases of the coupled processes occurs if and only if their amplitudes are allowed to grow unrealistically large. Stimulated by recent work on homeostatic inhibitory plasticity, we introduce static and plastic (adaptive) systemic inhibitory mechanisms to keep the amplitudes stochastically bounded. We find that systems with static inhibition exhibited bounded amplitudes but no sustained phase patterns. With plastic systemic inhibition, on the other hand, the resulting systems exhibit both bounded amplitudes and sustained phase patterns. These results demonstrate that plastic inhibitory mechanisms in neural field models can dynamically control amplitudes while allowing patterns of phase synchronization to develop. Similar mechanisms of plastic systemic inhibition could play a role in regulating oscillatory functioning in the brain.

Observed Ecological Communities Are Formed by Species Combinations That Are among the Most Likely to Persist under Changing Environments

AbstractDespite the rich biodiversity found in nature, it is unclear to what extent some combinations of interacting species, while conceivable in a given place and time, may never be realized. Yet solving this problem is important for understanding the role of randomness and predictability in the assembly of ecological communities. Here we show that the specific combinations of interacting species that emerge from the ecological dynamics within regional species pools are not all equally likely to be seen; rather, they are among the most likely to persist under changing environments. First, we use niche-based competition matrices and Lotka-Volterra models to demonstrate that realized combinations of interacting species are more likely to persist under random parameter perturbations than the majority of potential combinations with the same number of species that could have been formed from the regional pool. We then corroborate our theoretical results using a 10-year observational study, recording 88 plant-herbivore communities across three different forest successional stages. By inferring and validating plant-mediated communities of competing herbivore species, we find that observed combinations of herbivores have an expected probability of species persistence higher than half of all potential combinations. Our findings open up the opportunity to establish a formal probabilistic and predictive understanding of the composition of ecological communities.

Stochastic Turing Pattern Formation in a Model with Active and Passive Transport

We investigate Turing pattern formation in a stochastic and spatially discretized version of a reaction-diffusion-advection (RDA) equation, which was previously introduced to model synaptogenesis in C. elegans. The model describes the interactions between a passively diffusing molecular species and an advecting species that switches between anterograde and retrograde motor-driven transport (bidirectional transport). Within the context of synaptogenesis, the diffusing molecules can be identified with the protein kinase CaMKII and the advecting molecules as glutamate receptors. The stochastic dynamics evolves according to an RDA master equation, in which advection and diffusion are both modeled as hopping reactions along a one-dimensional array of chemical compartments. Carrying out a linear noise approximation of the RDA master equation leads to an effective Langevin equation, whose power spectrum provides a means of extending the definition of a Turing instability to stochastic systems, namely in terms of the existence of a peak in the power spectrum at a nonzero spatial frequency. We thus show how noise can significantly extend the range over which spontaneous patterns occur, which is consistent with previous studies of RD systems.

Precision and dissipation of a stochastic Turing pattern

Spontaneous pattern formation is a fundamental scientific problem that has received much attention since the seminal theoretical work of Turing on reaction-diffusion systems. In molecular biophysics, this phenomenon often takes place under the influence of large fluctuations. It is then natural to inquire about the precision of such pattern. In particular, spontaneous pattern formation is a nonequilibrium phenomenon, and the relation between the precision of a pattern and the thermodynamic cost associated with it remains largely unexplored. Here, we analyze this relation with a paradigmatic stochastic reaction-diffusion model, i.e., the Brusselator in one spatial dimension. We find that the precision of the pattern is maximized for an intermediate thermodynamic cost, i.e., increasing the thermodynamic cost beyond this value makes the pattern less precise. Even though fluctuations get less pronounced with an increase in thermodynamic cost, we argue that larger fluctuations can also have a positive effect on the precision of the pattern.

Eckhaus selection: The mechanism of pattern persistence in a reaction-diffusion system

In this work, we show theoretically and numerically that a one-dimensional reaction-diffusion system, near the Turing bifurcation, produces different number of stripes when, in addition to random noise, the Fourier mode of a prepattern used to initialize the system changes. We also show that the Fourier modes that persist are inside the Eckhaus stability regions, while those outside this region follow a wave number selection process not predicted by the linear analysis. To test our results, we use the Brusselator reaction-diffusion system obtaining an excellent agreement between the weakly nonlinear predictions of the real Ginzburg-Landau equations and the numerical solutions near the bifurcation. Although the persistence of patterns is not relevant as a simple generating mechanism of self-organization, it is crucial to understand the formation of patterns that occurs in multiple stages. In this work, we discuss the relevance of our results on the robustness and diversity of solutions in multiple-steps mechanisms of biological pattern formation and auto-organization in growing domains.

Structural forecasting of species persistence under changing environments

The persistence of a species in a given place not only depends on its intrinsic capacity to consume and transform resources into offspring, but also on how changing environmental conditions affect its growth rate. However, the complexity of factors has typically taken us to choose between understanding and predicting the persistence of species. To tackle this limitation, we propose a probabilistic approach rooted on the statistical concepts of ensemble theory applied to statistical mechanics and on the mathematical concepts of structural stability applied to population dynamics models - what we call structural forecasting. We show how this new approach allows us to estimate a probability of persistence for single species in local communities; to understand and interpret this probability conditional on the information we have concerning a system; and to provide out-of-sample predictions of species persistence as good as the best experimental approaches without the need of extensive amounts of data.

Coloured Noise from Stochastic Inflows in Reaction-Diffusion Systems

In this paper, we present a framework for investigating coloured noise in reaction-diffusion systems. We start by considering a deterministic reaction-diffusion equation and show how external forcing can cause temporally correlated or coloured noise. Here, the main source of external noise is considered to be fluctuations in the parameter values representing the inflow of particles to the system. First, we determine which reaction systems, driven by extrinsic noise, can admit only one steady state, so that effects, such as stochastic switching, are precluded from our analysis. To analyse the steady-state behaviour of reaction systems, even if the parameter values are changing, necessitates a parameter-free approach, which has been central to algebraic analysis in chemical reaction network theory. To identify suitable models, we use tools from real algebraic geometry that link the network structure to its dynamical properties. We then make a connection to internal noise models and show how power spectral methods can be used to predict stochastically driven patterns in systems with coloured noise. In simple cases, we show that the power spectrum of the coloured noise process and the power spectrum of the reaction-diffusion system modelled with white noise multiply to give the power spectrum of the coloured noise reaction-diffusion system.

Frequency spectrum of chemical fluctuation: A probe of reaction mechanism and dynamics

Even in the steady-state, the number of biomolecules in living cells fluctuates dynamically, and the frequency spectrum of this chemical fluctuation carries valuable information about the dynamics of the reactions creating these biomolecules. Recent advances in single-cell techniques enable direct monitoring of the time-traces of the protein number in each cell; however, it is not yet clear how the stochastic dynamics of these time-traces is related to the reaction mechanism and dynamics. Here, we derive a rigorous relation between the frequency-spectrum of the product number fluctuation and the reaction mechanism and dynamics, starting from a generalized master equation. This relation enables us to analyze the time-traces of the protein number and extract information about dynamics of mRNA number and transcriptional regulation, which cannot be directly observed by current experimental techniques. We demonstrate our frequency spectrum analysis of protein number fluctuation, using the gene network model of luciferase expression under the control of the Bmal 1a promoter in mouse fibroblast cells. We also discuss how the dynamic heterogeneity of transcription and translation rates affects the frequency-spectra of the mRNA and protein number.

Noise sharing and Mexican-hat coupling in a stochastic neural field

A diffusion-type coupling operator that is biologically significant in neuroscience is a difference of Gaussian functions (Mexican-hat operator) used as a spatial-convolution kernel. We are interested in pattern formation by stochastic neural field equations, a class of space-time stochastic differential-integral equations using the Mexican-hat kernel. We explore quantitatively how the parameters that control the shape of the coupling kernel, the coupling strength, and aspects of spatially smoothed space-time noise influence the pattern in the resulting evolving random field. We confirm that a spatial pattern that is damped in time in a deterministic system may be sustained and amplified by stochasticity. We find that spatially smoothed noise alone causes pattern formation even without direct spatial coupling. Our analysis of the interaction between coupling and noise sharing allows us to determine parameter combinations that are optimal for the formation of spatial pattern.

The Linear Noise Approximation for Spatially Dependent Biochemical Networks

An algorithm for computing the linear noise approximation (LNA) of the reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) is developed and tested. The RDME is often used as a model for biochemical reaction networks. The LNA is derived for a general discretization of the spatial domain of the problem. If M is the number of chemical species in the network and N is the number of nodes in the discretization in space, then the computational work to determine approximations of the mean and the covariances of the probability distributions is proportional to [Formula: see text] in a straightforward implementation. In our LNA algorithm, the work is proportional to [Formula: see text]. Since N usually is larger than M, this is a significant reduction. The accuracy of the approximation in the algorithm is estimated analytically and evaluated in numerical experiments.

Desynchronization and pattern formation in a noisy feed-forward oscillator network

We consider a one-dimensional directional array of diffusively coupled oscillators. They are perturbed by the injection of small additive noise, typically orders of magnitude smaller than the oscillation amplitude, and the system is studied in a region of the parameters that would yield deterministic synchronization. Non-normal directed couplings seed a coherent amplification of the perturbation: this latter manifests as a modulation, transversal to the limit cycle, which gains in potency node after node. If the lattice extends long enough, the initial synchrony gets eventually lost, and the system moves toward a nontrivial attractor, which can be analytically characterized as an asymptotic splay state. The noise assisted instability, ultimately vehiculated and amplified by the non-normal nature of the imposed couplings, eventually destabilizes also this second attractor. This phenomenon yields spatiotemporal patterns, which cannot be anticipated by a conventional linear stability analysis.

Comparison of Deterministic and Stochastic Regime in a Model for Cdc42 Oscillations in Fission Yeast

Oscillations occur in a wide variety of essential cellular processes, such as cell cycle progression, circadian clocks and calcium signaling in response to stimuli. It remains unclear how intrinsic stochasticity can influence these oscillatory systems. Here, we focus on oscillations of Cdc42 GTPase in fission yeast. We extend our previous deterministic model by Xu and Jilkine to construct a stochastic model, focusing on the fast diffusion case. We use SSA (Gillespie's algorithm) to numerically explore the low copy number regime in this model, and use analytical techniques to study the long-time behavior of the stochastic model and compare it to the equilibria of its deterministic counterpart. Numerical solutions suggest noisy limit cycles exist in the parameter regime in which the deterministic system converges to a stable limit cycle, and quasi-cycles exist in the parameter regime where the deterministic model has a damped oscillation. Near an infinite period bifurcation point, the deterministic model has a sustained oscillation, while stochastic trajectories start with an oscillatory mode and tend to approach deterministic steady states. In the low copy number regime, metastable transitions from oscillatory to steady behavior occur in the stochastic model. Our work contributes to the understanding of how stochastic chemical kinetics can affect a finite-dimensional dynamical system, and destabilize a deterministic steady state leading to oscillations.

Particle-based simulations of polarity establishment reveal stochastic promotion of Turing pattern formation

Polarity establishment, the spontaneous generation of asymmetric molecular distributions, is a crucial component of many cellular functions. Saccharomyces cerevisiae (yeast) undergoes directed growth during budding and mating, and is an ideal model organism for studying polarization. In yeast and many other cell types, the Rho GTPase Cdc42 is the key molecular player in polarity establishment. During yeast polarization, multiple patches of Cdc42 initially form, then resolve into a single front. Because polarization relies on strong positive feedback, it is likely that the amplification of molecular-level fluctuations underlies the generation of multiple nascent patches. In the absence of spatial cues, these fluctuations may be key to driving polarization. Here we used particle-based simulations to investigate the role of stochastic effects in a Turing-type model of yeast polarity establishment. In the model, reactions take place either between two molecules on the membrane, or between a cytosolic and a membrane-bound molecule. Thus, we developed a computational platform that explicitly simulates molecules at and near the cell membrane, and implicitly handles molecules away from the membrane. To evaluate stochastic effects, we compared particle simulations to deterministic reaction-diffusion equation simulations. Defining macroscopic rate constants that are consistent with the microscopic parameters for this system is challenging, because diffusion occurs in two dimensions and particles exchange between the membrane and cytoplasm. We address this problem by empirically estimating macroscopic rate constants from appropriately designed particle-based simulations. Ultimately, we find that stochastic fluctuations speed polarity establishment and permit polarization in parameter regions predicted to be Turing stable. These effects can operate at Cdc42 abundances expected of yeast cells, and promote polarization on timescales consistent with experimental results. To our knowledge, our work represents the first particle-based simulations of a model for yeast polarization that is based on a Turing mechanism.

Many cells need to generate and maintain biochemical signals in specific subcellular regions. This phenomenon is broadly called polarity establishment, and is important in fundamental processes such as cell migration and differentiation. A key polarity factor found in diverse organisms, including yeast and humans, is the protein Cdc42. In yeast, Cdc42-dependent polarization occurs through a self-reinforcing biochemical signaling loop. Directional cues can guide polarity establishment, but interestingly, yeast can polarize in the absence of such a cue. The mechanism thought to underlie this symmetry breaking involves the amplification of inhomogeneities in molecular distributions that arise from molecular-level fluctuations. We investigated the effects of random fluctuations on polarization by performing particle-based simulations of the Cdc42 signaling network. We found that fluctuations can facilitate polarization, allowing faster polarization, and polarization over a broader range of concentrations. Our observations may help understand how polarity works in other systems.

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Noise-driven neuromorphic tuned amplifier

We study a simple stochastic model of neuronal excitatory and inhibitory interactions. The model is defined on a directed lattice and internodes couplings are modulated by a nonlinear function that mimics the process of synaptic activation. We prove that such a system behaves as a fully tunable amplifier: the endogenous component of noise, stemming from finite size effects, seeds a coherent (exponential) amplification across the chain generating giant oscillations with tunable frequencies, a process that the brain could exploit to enhance, and eventually encode, different signals. On a wider perspective, the characterized amplification process could provide a reliable pacemaking mechanism for biological systems. The device extracts energy from the finite size bath and operates as an out of equilibrium thermal machine, under stationary conditions.

Graph-facilitated resonant mode counting in stochastic interaction networks

Oscillations in dynamical systems are widely reported in multiple branches of applied mathematics. Critically, even a non-oscillatory deterministic system can produce cyclic trajectories when it is in a low copy number, stochastic regime. Common methods of finding parameter ranges for stochastically driven resonances, such as direct calculation, are cumbersome for any but the smallest networks. In this paper, we provide a systematic framework to efficiently determine the number of resonant modes and parameter ranges for stochastic oscillations relying on real root counting algorithms and graph theoretic methods. We argue that stochastic resonance is a network property by showing that resonant modes only depend on the squared Jacobian matrix J2, unlike deterministic oscillations which are determined by J By using graph theoretic tools, analysis of stochastic behaviour for larger interaction networks is simplified and stochastic dynamical systems with multiple resonant modes can be identified easily.

Drift-Induced Selection Between Male and Female Heterogamety

Evolutionary transitions between male and female heterogamety are common in both vertebrates and invertebrates. Theoretical studies of these transitions have found that, when all genotypes are equally fit, continuous paths of intermediate equilibria link the two sex chromosome systems. This observation has led to a belief that neutral evolution along these paths can drive transitions, and that arbitrarily small fitness differences among sex chromosome genotypes can determine the system to which evolution leads. Here, we study stochastic evolutionary dynamics along these equilibrium paths. We find non-neutrality, both in transitions retaining the ancestral pair of sex chromosomes, and in those creating a new pair. In fact, substitution rates are biased in favor of dominant sex determining chromosomes, which fix with higher probabilities than mutations of no effect. Using diffusion approximations, we show that this non-neutrality is a result of "drift-induced selection" operating at every point along the equilibrium paths: stochastic jumps off the paths return with, on average, a directional bias in favor of the dominant segregating sex chromosome. Our results offer a novel explanation for the observed preponderance of dominant sex determining genes, and hint that drift-induced selection may be a common force in standard population genetic systems.

Motif analysis for small-number effects in chemical reaction dynamics

The number of molecules involved in a cell or subcellular structure is sometimes rather small. In this situation, ordinary macroscopic-level fluctuations can be overwhelmed by non-negligible large fluctuations, which results in drastic changes in chemical-reaction dynamics and statistics compared to those observed under a macroscopic system (i.e., with a large number of molecules). In order to understand how salient changes emerge from fluctuations in molecular number, we here quantitatively define small-number effect by focusing on a "mesoscopic" level, in which the concentration distribution is distinguishable both from micro- and macroscopic ones and propose a criterion for determining whether or not such an effect can emerge in a given chemical reaction network. Using the proposed criterion, we systematically derive a list of motifs of chemical reaction networks that can show small-number effects, which includes motifs showing emergence of the power law and the bimodal distribution observable in a mesoscopic regime with respect to molecule number. The list of motifs provided herein is helpful in the search for candidates of biochemical reactions with a small-number effect for possible biological functions, as well as for designing a reaction system whose behavior can change drastically depending on molecule number, rather than concentration.

Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory

The relationship between the M-species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M-allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.

Noise-induced symmetry breaking far from equilibrium and the emergence of biological homochirality

The origin of homochirality, the observed single-handedness of biological amino acids and sugars, has long been attributed to autocatalysis, a frequently assumed precursor for early life self-replication. However, the stability of homochiral states in deterministic autocatalytic systems relies on cross-inhibition of the two chiral states, an unlikely scenario for early life self-replicators. Here we present a theory for a stochastic individual-level model of autocatalytic prebiotic self-replicators that are maintained out of thermal equilibrium. Without chiral inhibition, the racemic state is the global attractor of the deterministic dynamics, but intrinsic multiplicative noise stabilizes the homochiral states. Moreover, we show that this noise-induced bistability is robust with respect to diffusion of molecules of opposite chirality, and systems of diffusively coupled autocatalytic chemical reactions synchronize their final homochiral states when the self-replication is the dominant production mechanism for the chiral molecules. We conclude that nonequilibrium autocatalysis is a viable mechanism for homochirality, without imposing additional nonlinearities such as chiral inhibition.

Giant Amplification of Noise in Fluctuation-Induced Pattern Formation

The amplitude of fluctuation-induced patterns might be expected to be proportional to the strength of the driving noise, suggesting that such patterns would be difficult to observe in nature. Here, we show that a large class of spatially extended dynamical systems driven by intrinsic noise can exhibit giant amplification, yielding patterns whose amplitude is comparable to that of deterministic Turing instabilities. The giant amplification results from the interplay between noise and nonorthogonal eigenvectors of the linear stability matrix, yielding transients that grow with time, and which, when driven by the ever-present intrinsic noise, lead to persistent large amplitude patterns. This mechanism shows that fluctuation-induced Turing patterns are observable, and are not strongly limited by the amplitude of demographic stochasticity nor by the value of the diffusion coefficients.

Stochastic epidemic dynamics on extremely heterogeneous networks

Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many contacts. We derive a two-dimensional diffusion model for the full temporal behavior of the stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model on such a network, by making use of a time-scale separation in the deterministic limit of the dynamics. This low-dimensional process is an accurate approximation to the full model in the limit of large populations, even for cases when the time-scale separation is not too pronounced, provided the maximum degree is not of the order of the population size.

Role of demographic stochasticity in a speciation model with sexual reproduction

Recent theoretical studies have shown that demographic stochasticity can greatly increase the tendency of asexually reproducing phenotypically diverse organisms to spontaneously evolve into localized clusters, suggesting a simple mechanism for sympatric speciation. Here we study the role of demographic stochasticity in a model of competing organisms subject to assortative mating. We find that in models with sexual reproduction, noise can also lead to the formation of phenotypic clusters in parameter ranges where deterministic models would lead to a homogeneous distribution. In some cases, noise can have a sizable effect, rendering the deterministic modeling insufficient to understand the phenotypic distribution.

Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction-diffusion models

Reaction-diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction-diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model.

Noise-Induced Mechanism for Biological Homochirality of Early Life Self-Replicators

The observed single-handedness of biological amino acids and sugars has long been attributed to autocatalysis. However, the stability of homochiral states in deterministic autocatalytic systems relies on cross inhibition of the two chiral states, an unlikely scenario for early life self-replicators. Here, we present a theory for a stochastic individual-level model of autocatalysis due to early life self-replicators. Without chiral inhibition, the racemic state is the global attractor of the deterministic dynamics, but intrinsic multiplicative noise stabilizes the homochiral states, in both well-mixed and spatially extended systems. We conclude that autocatalysis is a viable mechanism for homochirality, without imposing additional nonlinearities such as chiral inhibition.

Modes of competition and the fitness of evolved populations

Competition between individuals drives the evolution of whole species. Although the fittest individuals survive the longest and produce the most offspring, in some circumstances the resulting species may not be optimally fit. Here, using theoretical analysis and stochastic simulations of a simple model ecology, we show how the mode of competition can profoundly affect the fitness of evolved species. When individuals compete directly with one another, the adaptive dynamics framework provides accurate predictions for the number and distribution of species, which occupy positions of maximal fitness. By contrast, if competition is mediated by the consumption of a common resource, then demographic noise leads to the stabilization of species with near minimal fitness.

Path-integral methods for analyzing the effects of fluctuations in stochastic hybrid neural networks

We consider applications of path-integral methods to the analysis of a stochastic hybrid model representing a network of synaptically coupled spiking neuronal populations. The state of each local population is described in terms of two stochastic variables, a continuous synaptic variable and a discrete activity variable. The synaptic variables evolve according to piecewise-deterministic dynamics describing, at the population level, synapses driven by spiking activity. The dynamical equations for the synaptic currents are only valid between jumps in spiking activity, and the latter are described by a jump Markov process whose transition rates depend on the synaptic variables. We assume a separation of time scales between fast spiking dynamics with time constant [Formula: see text] and slower synaptic dynamics with time constant τ. This naturally introduces a small positive parameter [Formula: see text], which can be used to develop various asymptotic expansions of the corresponding path-integral representation of the stochastic dynamics. First, we derive a variational principle for maximum-likelihood paths of escape from a metastable state (large deviations in the small noise limit [Formula: see text]). We then show how the path integral provides an efficient method for obtaining a diffusion approximation of the hybrid system for small ϵ. The resulting Langevin equation can be used to analyze the effects of fluctuations within the basin of attraction of a metastable state, that is, ignoring the effects of large deviations. We illustrate this by using the Langevin approximation to analyze the effects of intrinsic noise on pattern formation in a spatially structured hybrid network. In particular, we show how noise enlarges the parameter regime over which patterns occur, in an analogous fashion to PDEs. Finally, we carry out a [Formula: see text]-loop expansion of the path integral, and use this to derive corrections to voltage-based mean-field equations, analogous to the modified activity-based equations generated from a neural master equation.

Cooperativity to increase Turing pattern space for synthetic biology

It is hard to bridge the gap between mathematical formulations and biological implementations of Turing patterns, yet this is necessary for both understanding and engineering these networks with synthetic biology approaches. Here, we model a reaction-diffusion system with two morphogens in a monostable regime, inspired by components that we recently described in a synthetic biology study in mammalian cells.1 The model employs a single promoter to express both the activator and inhibitor genes and produces Turing patterns over large regions of parameter space, using biologically interpretable Hill function reactions. We applied a stability analysis and identified rules for choosing biologically tunable parameter relationships to increase the likelihood of successful patterning. We show how to control Turing pattern sizes and time evolution by manipulating the values for production and degradation relationships. More importantly, our analysis predicts that steep dose-response functions arising from cooperativity are mandatory for Turing patterns. Greater steepness increases parameter space and even reduces the requirement for differential diffusion between activator and inhibitor. These results demonstrate some of the limitations of linear scenarios for reaction-diffusion systems and will help to guide projects to engineer synthetic Turing patterns.

Models of genetic drift as limiting forms of the Lotka-Volterra competition model

The relationship between the Moran model and stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model is explored via time scale separation arguments. For neutral systems the two are found to be equivalent at long times. For systems with selective pressure, their behavior differs. It is argued that the SLVC is preferable to the Moran model since in the SLVC population size is regulated by competition, rather than arbitrarily fixed as in the Moran model. As a consequence, ambiguities found in the Moran model associated with the introduction of more complex processes, such as selection, are avoided.

Population genetics on islands connected by an arbitrary network: an analytic approach

We analyse a model consisting of a population of individuals which is subdivided into a finite set of demes, each of which has a fixed but differing number of individuals. The individuals can reproduce, die and migrate between the demes according to an arbitrary migration network. They are haploid, with two alleles present in the population; frequency-independent selection is also incorporated, where the strength and direction of selection can vary from deme to deme. The system is formulated as an individual-based model and the diffusion approximation systematically applied to express it as a set of nonlinear coupled stochastic differential equations. These can be made amenable to analysis through the elimination of fast-time variables. The resulting reduced model is analysed in a number of situations, including migration-selection balance leading to a polymorphic equilibrium of the two alleles and an illustration of how the subdivision of the population can lead to non-trivial behaviour in the case where the network is a simple hub. The method we develop is systematic, may be applied to any network, and agrees well with the results of simulations in all cases studied and across a wide range of parameter values.

Fast-mode elimination in stochastic metapopulation models

We investigate the stochastic dynamics of entities which are confined to a set of islands, between which they migrate. They are assumed to be one of two types, and in addition to migration, they also reproduce and die. Birth and death events are later moderated by weak selection. Systems which fall into this class are common in biology and social science, occurring in ecology, population genetics, epidemiology, biochemistry, linguistics, opinion dynamics, and other areas. In all these cases the governing equations are intractable, consisting as they do of multidimensional Fokker-Planck equations or, equivalently, coupled nonlinear stochastic differential equations with multiplicative noise. We develop a methodology which exploits a separation in time scales between fast and slow variables to reduce these equations so that they resemble those for a single island, which are amenable to analysis. The technique is generally applicable, but we choose to discuss it in the context of population genetics, in part because of the extra features that appear due to selection. The idea behind the method is simple, its application is systematic, and the results are in very good agreement with simulations of the full model for a range of parameter values.