Approaches to Macroevolution: 1. General Concepts and Origin of Variation

Craniofacial modularity and the evolution of cranial kinesis in the adaptive radiation of Furnariidae (Aves: Passeriformes)

The role of phenotypic modularity in the evolution of skull morphology in birds has been a subject of debate in recent years. Furnariids (ovenbirds and woodcreepers), a spectacular avian adaptive radiation, are distinguished in their cranial morphology as the only passerines with two types of cranial kinesis, constituting a great model to test whether the evolution of novelties linked to kinesis was associated with shifts in patterns of evolutionary modularity and allometry in the avian skull. Our analyses by means of geometric morphometric tools and phylogenetic comparative methods show that the beak and neurocranium of furnariids evolved in a modular fashion and shaped by the cranial kinesis evolution. Besides, species with prokinesis show a higher degree of modularity and morphological disparity, lower phenotypic rates, as well as higher contribution of allometry in the evolution of the beak morphology than species with proximal rhynchokinesis, suggesting, as observed in several vertebrates, that the functional demands associated with higher degrees of cranial kinesis promoted rapid integration throughout the skull. Prokinetic-robust morphotypes and proximal rhynchokinetic-gracile morphotypes, have repeatedly evolved by evolutionary convergence in both modules, which suggests the existence of functional trade-offs and long-standing adaptive optima related to cranial kinesis.

Time-calibrated phylogeny of neotropical freshwater fishes

Neotropical Freshwater Fish (NFF) fauna exhibits the greatest phenotypic disparity and species richness among all continental aquatic vertebrate faunas, with more than 6,345 species distributed across the mostly tropical regions of Central and South America. The last two decades have seen a proliferation of molecular phylogenies, often at the species level, covering almost all 875 valid NFF genera. This study presents the most comprehensive genome-wide, time-calibrated phylogenetic hypothesis of NFF species to date, based on DNA sequences generated over decades through the collaborative efforts of the multinational ichthyological research community. Our purpose is to build and curate an extensive molecular dataset allowing researchers to evaluate macroevolutionary hypotheses in the NFF while facilitating continuous refinement and expansion. Using thousands of DNA sequences from dozens of studies, we compiled a supermatrix of 51 markers for 5,984 taxa, representing 3,167 NFF species. Based on this dataset, we built the most species-rich time-calibrated phylogeny of the NFF taxa to date, summarizing the collective efforts of the ichthyological research community since the midpoint of the last century. We provide a summary review of this remarkable evolutionary history and hope this dataset provides a framework for forthcoming studies of the NFF fauna, documenting compelling, emergent patterns in the world's most diverse continental vertebrate fauna.

The paradox of predictability provides a bridge between micro- and macroevolution

The relationship between the evolutionary dynamics observed in contemporary populations (microevolution) and evolution on timescales of millions of years (macroevolution) has been a topic of considerable debate. Historically, this debate centers on inconsistencies between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns. Here, we characterize a striking exception: emerging evidence indicates that standing variation in contemporary populations and macroevolutionary rates of phenotypic divergence is often positively correlated. This apparent consistency between micro- and macroevolution is paradoxical because it contradicts our previous understanding of phenotypic evolution and is so far unexplained. Here, we explore the prospects for bridging evolutionary timescales through an examination of this "paradox of predictability." We begin by explaining why the divergence-variance correlation is a paradox, followed by data analysis to show that the correlation is a general phenomenon across a broad range of temporal scales, from a few generations to tens of millions of years. Then we review complementary approaches from quantitative genetics, comparative morphology, evo-devo, and paleontology to argue that they can help to address the paradox from the shared vantage point of recent work on evolvability. In conclusion, we recommend a methodological orientation that combines different kinds of short-term and long-term data using multiple analytical frameworks in an interdisciplinary research program. Such a program will increase our general understanding of how evolution works within and across timescales.

Three modes of evolution? Remarks on rates of evolution and time scaling

Rates of evolution get smaller when they are measured over longer time intervals. As first shown by Gingerich, rates of morphological change measured from fossil time series show a robust minus-one scaling with time span, implying that evolutionary changes are just as large when measured over a hundred years as when measured over a hundred-thousand years. On even longer time scales, however, the scaling shifts toward a minus-half exponent consistent with evolution behaving as Brownian motion, as commonly observed in phylogenetic comparative studies. Here, I discuss how such scaling patterns arise, and I derive the patterns expected from standard stochastic models of evolution. I argue that observed shifts cannot be easily explained by simple univariate models, but require shifts in mode of evolution as time scale is changing. To illustrate this idea, I present a hypothesis about three distinct, but connected, modes of evolution. I analyze the scaling patterns predicted from this, and use the results to discuss how rates of evolution should be measured and interpreted. I argue that distinct modes of evolution at different time scales act to decouple micro- and macroevolution, and criticize various attempts at extrapolating from one to the other.

Tangled banks, braided rivers, and complex hierarchies: beyond microevolution and macroevolution

Ever since the Modern Synthesis, a debate about the relationship between microevolution and macroevolution has persisted-specifically, whether they are equivalent, distinct, or explain one another. How one answers these questions has become shorthand for a much broader set of theoretical debates in evolutionary biology. Here, we examine microevolution and macroevolution in the context of the vast proliferation of data, knowledge, and theory since the advent of the Modern Synthesis. We suggest that traditional views on microevolution and macroevolution are too binary and reductive given current empirical and theoretical advances in biology. For example, patterns and processes are interconnected at various temporal and spatial scales and among hierarchical entities, rather than defining micro- or macro-domains. Further, biological entities have variably fuzzy boundaries, resulting in complex evolutionary processes that influence macroevolution occuring at both micro- and macro-levels. In addition, conceptual advances in phylodynamics have yet to be fully integrated with contemporary macroevolutionary approaches. Finally, holding microevolution and macroevolution as distinct domains thwarts synthesis and collaboration on important research questions. Instead, we propose that the focal entities and processes considered by evolutionary studies be contextualized within the complexity of the multidimensional, multimodal, multilevel phylogenetic system.

Complexity and weak integration promote the diversity of reef fish oral jaws

Major trade-offs often manifest as axes of diversity in organismal functional systems. Overarching trade-offs may result in high trait integration and restrict the trajectory of diversification to be along a single axis. Here, we explore the diversification of the feeding mechanism in coral reef fishes to establish the role of trade-offs and complexity in a spectacular ecological radiation. We show that the primary axis of variation in the measured musculo-skeletal traits is aligned with a trade-off between mobility and force transmission, spanning species that capture prey with suction and those that bite attached prey. We found weak or no covariation between about half the traits, reflecting deviations from the trade-off axis. The dramatic trophic range found among reef fishes occurs along the primary trade-off axis, with numerous departures that use a mosaic of trait combinations to adapt the feeding mechanism to diverse challenges. We suggest that morphological evolution both along and independent of a major axis of variation is a widespread mechanism of diversification in complex systems where a global trade-off shapes major patterns of diversity. Significant additional diversity emerges as systems use weak integration and complexity to assemble functional units with many trait combinations that meet varying ecological demands.

Morphological innovation did not drive diversification in Mesozoic-Cenozoic brachiopods

Over long spans of geological time, various groups of organisms may wax and wane, experiencing times of apparent success and contraction. These rises and falls are often said to reflect either opportunities created by climate change or the relative success of innovative characteristics. Phylum Brachiopoda was one of the most successful marine clades before the Permian/Triassic mass extinction (PTME), but after this event, they became marginal components of marine communities through to the present day. How brachiopod morphological innovations reacted to swiftly declining diversity has long remained poorly understood. Here we analyse morphological evolution over the 300 Myr (Permian-Quaternary) history of the four major Mesozoic-Cenozoic brachiopod orders (Terebratulida, Rhynchonellida, Spiriferinida, Athyridida). Unexpectedly, their disparities reached or exceeded pre-PTME levels, but were decoupled from generic richness, which was generally low. Distribution of taxa in morphospace and shifts in centroid indicate that all four orders exploited new morphospaces when adapting to post-Permian environments. A comparison of morphospace occupation and diversity evolution suggests that the high extinction rate of brachiopods and the limited diversification of new forms may have accounted for the depauperate nature of modern-day brachiopods.

Unexpectedly uneven distribution of functional trade-offs explains cranial morphological diversity in carnivores

Functional trade-offs can affect patterns of morphological and ecological evolution as well as the magnitude of morphological changes through evolutionary time. Using morpho-functional landscape modelling on the cranium of 132 carnivore species, we focused on the macroevolutionary effects of the trade-off between bite force and bite velocity. Here, we show that rates of evolution in form (morphology) are decoupled from rates of evolution in function. Further, we found theoretical morphologies optimising for velocity to be more diverse, while a much smaller phenotypic space was occupied by shapes optimising force. This pattern of differential representation of different functions in theoretical morphological space was highly correlated with patterns of actual morphological disparity. We hypothesise that many-to-one mapping of cranium shape on function may prevent the detection of direct relationships between form and function. As comparatively only few morphologies optimise bite force, species optimising this function may be less abundant because they are less likely to evolve. This, in turn, may explain why certain clades are less variable than others. Given the ubiquity of functional trade-offs in biological systems, these patterns may be general and may help to explain the unevenness of morphological and functional diversity across the tree of life.

Derived faunivores are the forerunners of major synapsid radiations

Evolutionary radiations generate most of Earth's biodiversity, but are there common ecomorphological traits among the progenitors of radiations? In Synapsida (the mammalian total group), 'small-bodied faunivore' has been hypothesized as the ancestral state of most major radiating clades, but this has not been quantitatively assessed across multiple radiations. To examine macroevolutionary patterns in a phylogenetic context, we generated a time-calibrated metaphylogeny ('metatree') comprising 1,888 synapsid species from the Carboniferous through the Eocene (305-34 Ma) based on 269 published character matrices. We used comparative methods to investigate body size and dietary evolution during successive synapsid radiations. Faunivory is the ancestral dietary regime of each major synapsid radiation, but relatively small body size is only established as the common ancestral state of radiations near the origin of Mammaliaformes in the Late Triassic. The faunivorous ancestors of synapsid radiations typically have numerous novel characters compared with their contemporaries, and these derived traits may have helped them to survive faunal turnover events and subsequently radiate.

What are patterns of rise and decline?

The notions of change, such as birth, death, growth, evolution and longevity, extend across reality, including biological, cultural and societal phenomena. Patterns of change describe how success and composition of every entity, from species to societies, vary across time. Languages develop into new languages, music and fashion continuously evolve, economies rise and decline, ecological and societal crises come and go. A common way to perceive and analyse change processes is through patterns of rise and decline, the ubiquitous, often distinctively unimodal trajectories describing life histories of various entities. These patterns come in different shapes and are measured according to varying definitions. Depending on how they are measured, patterns of rise and decline can reveal, emphasize, mask or obscure important dynamics in natural and cultural phenomena. Importantly, the variations of how dynamics are measured can be vast, making it impossible to directly compare patterns of rise and decline across fields of science. Standardized analysis of these patterns has the potential to uncover important but overlooked commonalities across natural phenomena and potentially help us catch the onset of dramatic shifts in entities' state, from catastrophic crashes in success to gradual emergence of new entities. We provide a framework for standardized recognizing, characterizing and comparing patterns of change by combining understanding of dynamics across fields of science. Our toolkit aims at enhancing understanding of the most general tendencies of change, through two complementary perspectives: dynamics of emergence and dynamics of success. We gather comparable cases and data from different research fields and summarize open research questions that can help us understand the universal principles, perception-biases and field-specific tendencies in patterns of rise and decline of entities in nature.

How exceptional are the classic adaptive radiations of passerine birds?

We investigated whether celebrated cases of evolutionary radiations of passerine birds on islands have produced exceptional morphological diversity relative to comparable-aged radiations globally. Based on eight external measurements, we calculated the disparity in size and shape within clades, each of which was classified as being tropical or temperate and as having diversified in a continental or an island/archipelagic setting. We found that the distribution of disparity among all clades does not differ substantively from a normal distribution, which would be consistent with a common underlying process of morphological diversification that is largely independent of latitude and occurrence on islands. Disparity is slightly greater in island clades than in those from continents or clades consisting of island and noninsular taxa, revealing a small, but significant, effect of island occurrence on evolutionary divergence. Nonetheless, the number of highly disparate clades overall is no greater than expected from a normal distribution, calling into question the need to invoke key innovations, ecological opportunity, or other factors as stimuli for adaptive radiations in passerine birds.

Cambrian origin but no early burst in functional disparity for Class Bivalvia

Both the Cambrian explosion, more than half a billion years ago, and its Ordovician aftermath some 35 Myr later, are often framed as episodes of widespread ecological opportunity, but not all clades originating during this interval showed prolific rises in morphological or functional disparity. In a direct analysis of functional disparity, instead of the more commonly used proxy of morphological disparity, we find that ecological functions of Class Bivalvia arose concordantly with and even lagged behind taxonomic diversification, rather than the early-burst pattern expected for clades originating in supposedly open ecological landscapes. Unlike several other clades originating in the Cambrian explosion, the bivalves' belated acquisition of key anatomical novelties imposed a macroevolutionary lag, and even when those novelties evolved in the Early Ordovician, functional disparity never surpassed taxonomic diversity. Beyond this early period of animal evolution, the founding and subsequent diversification of new major clades and their functions might be expected to follow the pattern of the early bivalves-one where interactions between highly dynamic environmental and biotic landscapes and evolutionary contingencies need not promote prolific functional innovation.

Forty years later: The status of the "Big Five" mass extinctions

Over 40 years ago, Raup and Sepkoski identified five episodes of elevated extinction in the marine fossil record that were thought to be statistically distinct, thus warranting the term the "Big Five" mass extinctions. Since then, the term has become part of standard vocabulary, especially with the naming of the current biodiversity crisis as the "sixth mass extinction." However, there is no general agreement on which time intervals should be viewed as mass extinctions, in part because the Big Five turn out not to be statistically distinct from background rates of extinction, and in part, because other intervals of time have even higher extinction rates, in the Cambrian and early Ordovician. Nonetheless, the Big Five represent the five largest events since the early Ordovician, including in analyses that attempt to compensate for the incompleteness of the fossil and rock records. In the last 40 years, we have learned a great deal about the causes of many of the major and minor extinction events and are beginning to unravel the mechanisms that translated the initial environmental disturbances into extinction. However, for many of the events, further understanding will require going back to the outcrop, where the patchy distribution of environments and pervasive temporal gaps in the rock record challenge our ability to establish true extinction patterns. As for the current biodiversity crisis, there is no doubt that the rate of extinction is among the highest ever experienced by the biosphere, perhaps the second highest after the end-Cretaceous bolide impact. However (and fortunately), the absolute number of extinctions is still relatively small - there is still time to prevent this becoming a genuine mass extinction. Given the arbitrariness of calling out the Big Five, perhaps the current crisis should be called the "incipient Anthropocene mass extinction" rather than the "sixth mass extinction."

A practical spatial analysis method for elucidating the biological mechanisms of cancers with abdominal dissemination in vivo

Elucidation of spatial interactions between cancer and host cells is important for the development of new therapies against disseminated cancers. The aim of this study is to establish easy and useful method for elucidating spatial interactions. In this study, we developed a practical spatial analysis method using a gel-based embedding system and applied it to a murine model of cancer dissemination. After euthanization, every abdominal organ enclosed in the peritoneum was extracted en bloc. We injected agarose gel into the peritoneal cavities to preserve the spatial locations of the organs, including their metastatic niches, and then produced specimens when the gel had solidified. Preservation of the original spatial localization was confirmed by correlating magnetic resonance imaging results with the sectioned specimens. We examined the effects of spatial localization on cancer hypoxia using immunohistochemical hypoxia markers. Finally, we identified the mRNA expression of the specimens and demonstrated the applicability of spatial genetic analysis. In conclusion, we established a practical method for the in vivo investigation of spatial location-specific biological mechanisms in disseminated cancers. Our method can elucidate dissemination mechanisms, find therapeutic targets, and evaluate cancer therapeutic effects.

Evolvability and Macroevolution: Overview and Synthesis

Evolvability is best addressed from a multi-level, macroevolutionary perspective through a comparative approach that tests for among-clade differences in phenotypic diversification in response to an opportunity, such as encountered after a mass extinction, entering a new adaptive zone, or entering a new geographic area. Analyzing the dynamics of clades under similar environmental conditions can (partially) factor out shared external drivers to recognize intrinsic differences in evolvability, aiming for a macroevolutionary analog of a common-garden experiment. Analyses will be most powerful when integrating neontological and paleontological data: determining differences among extant populations that can be hypothesized to generate large-scale, long-term contrasts in evolvability among clades; or observing large-scale differences among clade histories that can by hypothesized to reflect contrasts in genetics and development observed directly in extant populations. However, many comparative analyses can be informative on their own, as explored in this overview. Differences in clade-level evolvability can be visualized in diversity-disparity plots, which can quantify positive and negative departures of phenotypic productivity from stochastic expectations scaled to taxonomic diversification. Factors that evidently can promote evolvability include modularity—when selection aligns with modular structure or with morphological integration patterns; pronounced ontogenetic changes in morphology, as in allometry or multiphase life cycles; genome size; and a variety of evolutionary novelties, which can also be evaluated using macroevolutionary lags between the acquisition of a trait and phenotypic diversification, and dead-clade-walking patterns that may signal a loss of evolvability when extrinsic factors can be excluded. High speciation rates may indirectly foster phenotypic evolvability, and vice versa. Mechanisms are controversial, but clade evolvability may be higher in the Cambrian, and possibly early in the history of clades at other times; in the tropics; and, for marine organisms, in shallow-water disturbed habitats.

Life rather than climate influences diversity at scales greater than 40 million years

The diversity of life on Earth is controlled by hierarchical processes that interact over wide ranges of timescales¹. Here, we consider the megaclimate regime² at scales ≥1 million years (Myr). We focus on determining the domains of 'wandering' stochastic Earth system processes ('Court Jester'³) and stabilizing biotic interactions that induce diversity dependence of fluctuations in macroevolutionary rates ('Red Queen'⁴). Using state-of-the-art multiscale Haar and cross-Haar fluctuation analyses, we analysed the global genus-level Phanerozoic marine animal Paleobiology Database record of extinction rates (E), origination rates (O) and diversity (D) as well as sea water palaeotemperatures (T). Over the entire observed range from several million years to several hundred million years, we found that the fluctuations of T, E and O showed time-scaling behaviour. The megaclimate was characterized by positive scaling exponents-it is therefore apparently unstable. E and O are also scaling but with negative exponents-stable behaviour that is biotically mediated. For D, there were two regimes with a crossover at critical timescale [Formula: see text] ≈ 40 Myr. For shorter timescales, D exhibited nearly the same positive scaling as the megaclimate palaeotemperatures, whereas for longer timescales it tracks the scaling of macroevolutionary rates. At scales of at least [Formula: see text] there is onset of diversity dependence of E and O, probably enabled by mixing and synchronization (globalization) of the biota by geodispersal ('Geo-Red Queen').

The origin and early evolution of arthropods

The rise of arthropods is a decisive event in the history of life. Likely the first animals to have established themselves on land and in the air, arthropods have pervaded nearly all ecosystems and have become pillars of the planet's ecological networks. Forerunners of this saga, exceptionally well-preserved Palaeozoic fossils recently discovered or re-discovered using new approaches and techniques have elucidated the precocious appearance of extant lineages at the onset of the Cambrian explosion, and pointed to the critical role of the plankton and hard integuments in early arthropod diversification. The notion put forward at the beginning of the century that the acquisition of extant arthropod characters was stepwise and represented by the majority of Cambrian fossil taxa is being rewritten. Although some key traits leading to Euarthropoda are indeed well documented along a diversified phylogenetic stem, this stem led to several speciose and ecologically diverse radiations leaving descendants late into the Palaeozoic, and a large part, if not all of the Cambrian euarthropods can now be placed on either of the two extant lineages: Mandibulata and Chelicerata. These new observations and discoveries have altered our view on the nature and timing of the Cambrian explosion and clarified diagnostic characters at the origin of extant arthropods, but also raised new questions, especially with respect to cephalic plasticity. There is now strong evidence that early arthropods shared a homologous frontalmost appendage, coined here the cheira, which likely evolved into antennules and chelicerae, but other aspects, such as brain and labrum evolution, are still subject to active debate. The early evolution of panarthropods was generally driven by increased mastication and predation efficiency and sophistication, but a wealth of recent studies have also highlighted the prevalent role of suspension-feeding, for which early panarthropods developed their own adaptive feedback through both specialized appendages and the diversification of small, morphologically differentiated larvae. In a context of general integumental differentiation and hardening across Cambrian metazoans, arthrodization of body and limbs notably prompted two diverging strategies of basipod differentiation, which arguably became founding criteria in the divergence of total-groups Mandibulata and Chelicerata. The kinship of trilobites and their relatives remains a source of disagreement, but a recent topological solution, termed the 'deep split', could embed Artiopoda as sister taxa to chelicerates and constitute definitive support for Arachnomorpha. Although Cambrian fossils have been critical to all these findings, data of exceptional quality have also been accumulating from other Palaeozoic Konservat-Lagerstätten, and a better integration of this information promises a much more complete and elaborate picture of early arthropod evolution in the near future. From the broader perspective of a total-evidence approach to the understanding of life's history, and despite persisting systematic debates and new interpretative challenges, various advances based on palaeontological evidence open the prospect of finally using the full potential of the most diverse animal phylum to investigate macroevolutionary patterns and processes.

Allometry, sexual selection and evolutionary lines of least resistance shaped the evolution of exaggerated sexual traits within the genus Tyrannus

Variational properties hold a fundamental role in shaping biological evolution, exerting control over the magnitude and direction of evolutionary change elicited by microevolutionary processes that sort variation, such as selection or drift. We studied the genus Tyrannus as a model for examining the conditions and drivers that facilitate the repeated evolution of exaggerated, secondary sexual traits in the face of significant functional limitations. In particular, we explore the role of allometry, sexual selection and their interaction, on the diversification of tail morphology in the genus, assessing whether and how they promoted or constrained phenotypic evolution. Non-deep-forked species tend to show reduced sexual dimorphism and moderate allometric variation in tail shape. The exaggerated and functionally constrained long feathers of deep-forked species, T. savana and T. forficatus, which show both marked sexual dimorphism and allometric tail shape variation, independently diverged from the rest of the genus following the same direction of main interspecific variation accrued during the evolution of non-deep-forked species. Moreover, the latter direction is also aligned with axes summarising sexual dimorphism and allometric variation on deep-forked species, a feature lacking in the rest of the species. Thus, exaggerated tail morphologies are interpreted as the result of amplified divergence through reorientation and co-option of allometric variation by sexual selection, repeatedly driving morphology along a historically favoured direction of cladogenetic evolution.

Evolutionary modularity, integration and disparity in an accretionary skeleton: analysis of venerid Bivalvia

Modular evolution, the relatively independent evolution of body parts, may promote high morphological disparity in a clade. Conversely, integrated evolution via stronger covariation of parts may limit disparity. However, integration can also promote high disparity by channelling morphological evolution along lines of least resistance-a process that may be particularly important in the accumulation of disparity in the many invertebrate systems having accretionary growth. We use a time-calibrated phylogenetic hypothesis and high-density, three-dimensional semilandmarking to analyse the relationship between modularity, integration and disparity in the most diverse extant bivalve family: the Veneridae. In general, venerids have a simple, two-module parcellation of their body that is divided into features of the calcium carbonate shell and features of the internal soft anatomy. This division falls more along developmental than functional lines when placed in the context of bivalve anatomy and biomechanics. The venerid body is tightly integrated in absolute terms, but disparity appears to increase with modularity strength among subclades and ecologies. Thus, shifts towards more mosaic evolution beget higher morphological variance in this speciose family.

Landscape Evolution as a Diversification Driver in Freshwater Fishes

The exceptional concentration of vertebrate diversity in continental freshwaters has been termed the “freshwater fish paradox,” with > 15,000 fish species representing more than 20% of all vertebrate species compressed into tiny fractions of the Earth’s land surface area (<0.5%) or total aquatic habitat volume (<0.001%). This study asks if the fish species richness of the world’s river basins is explainable in terms of river captures using topographic metrics as proxies. The River Capture Hypothesis posits that drainage-network rearrangements have accelerated biotic diversification through their combined effects on dispersal, speciation, and extinction. Yet rates of river capture are poorly constrained at the basin scale worldwide. Here we assess correlations between fish species density (data for 14,953 obligate freshwater fish species) and basin-wide metrics of landscape evolution (data for 3,119 river basins), including: topography (elevation, average relief, slope, drainage area) and climate (average rainfall and air temperature). We assess the results in the context of both static landscapes (e.g., species-area and habitat heterogeneity relationships) and transient landscapes (e.g., river capture, tectonic activity, landscape disequilibrium). We also relax assumptions of functional neutrality of basins (tropical vs. extratropical, tectonically stable vs. active terrains). We found a disproportionate number of freshwater species in large, lowland river basins of tropical South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, under predictable conditions of large geographic area, tropical climate, low topographic relief, and high habitat volume (i.e., high rainfall rates). However, our results show that these conditions are only necessary, but not fully sufficient, to explain the basins with the highest diversity. Basins with highest diversity are all located on tectonically stable regions, places where river capture is predicted to be most conducive to the formation of high fish species richness over evolutionary timescales. Our results are consistent with predictions of several landscape evolution models, including the River Capture Hypothesis, Mega Capture Hypothesis, and Intermediate Capture Rate Hypothesis, and support conclusions of numerical modeling studies indicating landscape transience as a mechanistic driver of net diversification in riverine and riparian organisms with widespread continental distributions.

Evolutionary legacies in contemporary tetrapod imperilment

The Tree of Life will be irrevocably reshaped as anthropogenic extinctions continue to unfold. Theory suggests that lineage evolutionary dynamics, such as age since origination, historical extinction filters and speciation rates, have influenced ancient extinction patterns - but whether these factors also contribute to modern extinction risk is largely unknown. We examine evolutionary legacies in contemporary extinction risk for over 4000 genera, representing ~30,000 species, from the major tetrapod groups: amphibians, birds, turtles and crocodiles, squamate reptiles and mammals. We find consistent support for the hypothesis that extinction risk is elevated in lineages with higher recent speciation rates. We subsequently test, and find modest support for, a primary mechanism driving this pattern: that rapidly diversifying clades predominantly comprise range-restricted, and extinction-prone, species. These evolutionary patterns in current imperilment may have important consequences for how we manage the erosion of biological diversity across the Tree of Life.

Macroevolutionary ecomorphology of the Carnivora skull: adaptations and constraints in the extant species

The mammalian order Carnivora is characterized by a broad taxonomic and ecological diversity. By using a large sample of extant species, we tested the impact of ecological factors on carnivoran skull (cranium and mandible) morphology, taking advantage of a combined geometric morphometrics and comparative method approach. We implemented several evolutionary models to account for different tempo and mode of evolution in size and shape data. These models validated the association between skull morphology and diet at the interspecific scale. The functional distinction between pinniped (aquatic) and fissiped (mostly terrestrial) taxa was found valid only in mandible shape and cranial size. High levels of morphological disparity and evolutionary rates were identified in specialized dietary groups, and positive association between rates and disparity was found for skull size. Cranium and mandible showed consistent patterns of covariation that reflect constrained functional processes, which stabilize the ecomorphological evolution of Carnivora. Aquatic adaptations allowed carnivorans to invade and persist within novel regions of the mandibular morphospace. This ecological shift did not increase morphological disparity but occurred at a faster rate than in terrestrial species. Those species exhibit a stronger level of cranio-mandibular covariation due to constraints imposed by more demanding masticatory adaptations.

Contingency and chance erase necessity in the experimental evolution of ancestral proteins

The roles of chance, contingency, and necessity in evolution are unresolved because they have never been assessed in a single system or on timescales relevant to historical evolution. We combined ancestral protein reconstruction and a new continuous evolution technology to mutate and select proteins in the B-cell lymphoma-2 (BCL-2) family to acquire protein–protein interaction specificities that occurred during animal evolution. By replicating evolutionary trajectories from multiple ancestral proteins, we found that contingency generated over long historical timescales steadily erased necessity and overwhelmed chance as the primary cause of acquired sequence variation; trajectories launched from phylogenetically distant proteins yielded virtually no common mutations, even under strong and identical selection pressures. Chance arose because many sets of mutations could alter specificity at any timepoint; contingency arose because historical substitutions changed these sets. Our results suggest that patterns of variation in BCL-2 sequences – and likely other proteins, too – are idiosyncratic products of a particular and unpredictable course of historical events.

One of the most fundamental and unresolved questions in evolutionary biology is whether the outcomes of evolution are predictable. Is the diversity of life we see today the expected result of organisms adapting to their environment throughout history (also known as natural selection) or the product of random chance? Or did chance events early in history shape the paths that evolution could take next, determining the biological forms that emerged under natural selection much later?

These questions are hard to study because evolution happened only once, long ago. To overcome this barrier, Xie, Pu, Metzger et al. developed an experimental approach that can evolve reconstructed ancestral proteins that existed deep in the past. Using this method, it is possible to replay evolution multiple times, from various historical starting points, under conditions similar to those that existed long ago. The end products of the evolutionary trajectories can then be compared to determine how predictable evolution actually is.

Xie, Pu, Metzger et al. studied proteins belonging to the BCL-2 family, which originated some 800 million years ago. These proteins have diversified greatly over time in both their genetic sequences and their ability to bind to specific partner proteins called co-regulators. Xie, Pu, Metzger et al. synthesized BCL-2 proteins that existed at various times in the past. Each ancestral protein was then allowed to evolve repeatedly under natural selection to acquire the same co-regulator binding functions that evolved during history.

At the end of each evolutionary trajectory, the genetic sequence of the resulting BCL-2 proteins was recorded. This revealed that the outcomes of evolution were almost completely unpredictable: trajectories initiated from the same ancestral protein produced proteins with very different sequences, and proteins launched from different ancestral starting points were even more dissimilar.

Further experiments identified the mutations in each trajectory that caused changes in coregulator binding. When these mutations were introduced into other ancestral proteins, they did not yield the same change in function. This suggests that early chance events influenced each protein’s evolution in an unpredictable way by opening and closing the paths available to it in the future.

This research expands our understanding of evolution on a molecular level whilst providing a new experimental approach for studying evolutionary drivers in more detail. The results suggest that BCL-2 proteins, in all their various forms, are unique products of a particular, unpredictable course of history set in motion by ancient chance events.

Evolution of the locomotor skeleton in Anolis lizards reflects the interplay between ecological opportunity and phylogenetic inertia

Anolis lizards originated in continental America but have colonized the Greater Antillean islands and recolonized the mainland, resulting in three major groups (Primary and Secondary Mainland and Greater Antillean). The adaptive radiation in the Greater Antilles has famously resulted in the repeated evolution of ecomorphs. Yet, it remains poorly understood to what extent this island radiation differs from diversification on the mainland. Here, we demonstrate that the evolutionary modularity between girdles and limbs is fundamentally different in the Greater Antillean and Primary Mainland Anolis. This is consistent with ecological opportunities on islands driving the adaptive radiation along distinct evolutionary trajectories. However, Greater Antillean Anolis share evolutionary modularity with the group that recolonized the mainland, demonstrating a persistent phylogenetic inertia. A comparison of these two groups support an increased morphological diversity and faster and more variable evolutionary rates on islands. These macroevolutionary trends of the locomotor skeleton in Anolis illustrate that ecological opportunities on islands can have lasting effects on morphological diversification.

A multiscale view of the Phanerozoic fossil record reveals the three major biotic transitions

The hypothesis of the Great Evolutionary Faunas is a foundational concept of macroevolutionary research postulating that three global mega-assemblages have dominated Phanerozoic oceans following abrupt biotic transitions. Empirical estimates of this large-scale pattern depend on several methodological decisions and are based on approaches unable to capture multiscale dynamics of the underlying Earth-Life System. Combining a multilayer network representation of fossil data with a multilevel clustering that eliminates the subjectivity inherent to distance-based approaches, we demonstrate that Phanerozoic oceans sequentially harbored four global benthic mega-assemblages. Shifts in dominance patterns among these global marine mega-assemblages were abrupt (end-Cambrian 494 Ma; end-Permian 252 Ma) or protracted (mid-Cretaceous 129 Ma), and represent the three major biotic transitions in Earth’s history. Our findings suggest that gradual ecological changes associated with the Mesozoic Marine Revolution triggered a protracted biotic transition comparable in magnitude to the end-Permian transition initiated by the most severe biotic crisis of the past 500 million years. Overall, our study supports the notion that both long-term ecological changes and major geological events have played crucial roles in shaping the mega-assemblages that dominated Phanerozoic oceans.

Rojas et al. present a new multi-scale model that reveals the three major biotic transitions of the Phanerozoic fossil record. This new model supports the hypothesis that both long-term ecological changes and major geological events played crucial roles in shaping ocean mega-assemblages through the Phanerozoic.

Convergence and divergence in anti-predator displays: a novel approach to quantitative behavioural comparison in snakes

Animals in nature use many strategies to evade or deter their predators. Within venomous snake mimicry, stereotyped anti-predator behaviours are hypothesized to be effective warning signals under strong selection for independent convergence across species. However, no studies have systematically quantified snake anti-predator displays across taxonomically broad clades to examine how these behaviours evolve within a comparative methods framework. Here we describe a new high-throughput approach for collecting and quantifying anti-predator displays in snakes that demonstrates both low observer bias and infinite extension. Then, we show this method’s utility by comparing 20 species spanning six taxonomic families from Peru. We found that a simple experimental set-up varying simulated predator cues was successful in eliciting displays across species and that high-speed videography captured a great diversity of anti-predator responses. Although display components show complicated patterns of covariance, we found support for behavioural convergence in anti-predator displays among elapid coral snakes and their distantly related mimics. Our approach provides new analytical opportunities for both behaviour and kinematics, especially macroevolutionary analyses across clades with similar difficulty in observing or comparing trait diversity.

Re-evaluation of the "law of constant extinction" for ruminants at different taxonomical scales

The "law of constant extinction," proposed by Van Valen, states that long and short-lived taxa have equal chances of going extinct. This pattern of age-independent extinction was originally inferred using the fossil record of several different taxa and relied on survivorship curves built from the literal reading of the fossil record. Van Valen's seminal work was mostly done at higher taxonomic levels, hence its prevalence at the species level could not be directly inferred. The surprisingly few subsequent studies done at the species level have challenged the prevalence of age-independent extinction, but those have, for the most part, failed to explicitly incorporate inherent biases of the fossil record. Using a recent Bayesian framework that accounts for several of those biases, including the fact that very short-living lineages might never make to the record itself, we showed that Ruminantia species present age-dependent extinction, where extinction probability decreases with species age. An analysis at the genus level suggested age-independent extinction but further examination suggested that the pattern might be more complex than previously reported by Van Valen. Our results indicate that different taxonomic levels may present different extinction regimes, which could justify the development of new macroevolutionary theory and methods.

The comparative method is not macroevolution: across-species evidence for within-species process

It is common for studies that employ the comparative method for the study of adaptation, i.e. documentation of potentially adaptive across-species patterns of trait-environment or trait-trait correlation, to be designated as "macroevolutionary." Authors are justified in using "macroevolution" in this way by appeal to definitions such as "evolution above the species level." I argue that regarding the comparative method as "macroevolutionary" is harmful because it hides in serious ways the true causal content of hypotheses tested with the comparative method. The comparative method is a means of testing hypotheses of adaptation and their alternatives. Adaptation is a population level phenomenon, involving heritable interindividual variation that is associated with fitness differences. For example, given heritable intrapopulational variation, more streamlined individuals in populations of fast-moving aquatic animals have higher locomotory efficiency and thus better survivorship and more resources directed to reproduction than less streamlined ones. Direct evidence consistent with this population-level scenario includes the observation that many unrelated species of fast-moving aquatic animals have similar streamlined shapes, an example of the comparative method. Crucial to note in this example is that although the data are observed across species, the comparative method for studying adaptation tests hypotheses regarding standard population-level natural selection with no content that can be construed as "macro." Even less "macro," individual-level developmental dynamics can limit or bias the range of variants available for selection. Calling any of these studies "macroevolutionary" implies that some additional process is at work, shrouding the need to test adaptation hypotheses and study the range of variants that can be produced in development.

A conceptual framework of evolutionary novelty and innovation

Since 1990 the recognition of deep homologies among metazoan developmental processes and the spread of more mechanistic approaches to developmental biology have led to a resurgence of interest in evolutionary novelty and innovation. Other evolutionary biologists have proposed central roles for behaviour and phenotypic plasticity in generating the conditions for the construction of novel morphologies, or invoked the accessibility of new regions of vast sequence spaces. These approaches contrast with more traditional emphasis on the exploitation of ecological opportunities as the primary source of novelty. This definitional cornucopia reflects differing stress placed on three attributes of novelties: their radical nature, the generation of new taxa, and ecological and evolutionary impact. Such different emphasis has led to conflating four distinct issues: the origin of novel attributes (genes, developmental processes, phenotypic characters), new functions, higher clades and the ecological impact of new structures and functions. Here I distinguish novelty (the origin of new characters, deep character transformations, or new combinations) from innovation, the ecological and evolutionary success of clades. Evidence from the fossil record of macroevolutionary lags between the origin of a novelty and its ecological success demonstrates that novelty may be decoupled from innovation, and only definitions of novelty based on radicality (rather than generativity or consequentiality) can be assessed without reference to the subsequent history of the clade to which a novelty belongs. These considerations suggest a conceptual framework for novelty and innovation, involving: (i) generation of the potential for novelty; (ii) the formation of novel attributes; (iii) refinement of novelties through adaptation; (iv) exploitation of novelties by a clade, which may coincide with a new round of ecological or environmental potentiation; followed by (v) the establishment of innovations through ecological processes. This framework recognizes that there is little empirical support for either the dominance of ecological opportunity, nor abrupt discontinuities (often caricatured as 'hopeful monsters'). This general framework may be extended to aspects of cultural and social innovation.

Skeletal marine animal biodiversity is built by families with long macroevolutionary lag times

The clade dynamics of marine animals have changed markedly over the Phanerozoic. Long-term diversification is associated with decreasing origination and extinction rates, and with increasing taxon longevity. Here we use the diversification trajectories of skeletal non-colonial marine families to infer the mechanisms that generated these trends. Suggested mechanisms behind these trends include stochastic extinction of taxa with high evolutionary volatility and selection for traits that buffer against extinction. We find an increasing predominance of Phanerozoic families with long lag times between first appearance and peak diversity, over those with 'early burst' diversification trajectories. Long-lag families persisted for longer and had lower evolutionary volatilities, higher genus-level occupancies and genera with larger niche breadths than early burst families. However, they do not preferentially show ecological modes known to protect against extinction. We interpret the rise of the long-lag families as reflecting an intensification of ecosystem-level mechanisms supporting both long-term coexistence and transient dynamics, which increased the capacity of marine ecosystems to accommodate highly diverse communities.

Regionalization of the axial skeleton predates functional adaptation in the forerunners of mammals

The evolution of semi-independent modules is hypothesized to underlie the functional diversification of serially repeating (metameric) structures. The mammal vertebral column is a classic example of a metameric structure that is both modular, with well-defined morphological regions, and functionally differentiated. How the evolution of regions is related to their functional differentiation in the forerunners of mammals remains unclear. Here we gathered morphometric and biomechanical data on the presacral vertebrae of two extant species that bracket the synapsid-mammal transition and use the relationship between form and function to predict functional differentiation in extinct non-mammalian synapsids. The origin of vertebral functional diversity does not correlate with the evolution of new regions but appears late in synapsid evolution. This decoupling of regions from functional diversity implies that an adaptive trigger is needed to exploit existing modularity. We propose that the release of axial respiratory constraints, combined with selection for novel mammalian behaviours in Late Triassic cynodonts, drove the functional divergence of pre-existing morphological regions.

Xenotransplantation: Progress Along Paths Uncertain from Models to Application

For more than a century, transplantation of tissues and organs from animals into man, xenotransplantation, has been viewed as a potential way to treat disease. Ironically, interest in xenotransplantation was fueled especially by successful application of allotransplantation, that is, transplantation of human tissue and organs, as a treatment for a variety of diseases, especially organ failure because scarcity of human tissues limited allotransplantation to a fraction of those who could benefit. In principle, use of animals such as pigs as a source of transplants would allow transplantation to exert a vastly greater impact than allotransplantation on medicine and public health. However, biological barriers to xenotransplantation, including immunity of the recipient, incompatibility of biological systems, and transmission of novel infectious agents, are believed to exceed the barriers to allotransplantation and presently to hinder clinical applications. One way potentially to address the barriers to xenotransplantation is by genetic engineering animal sources. The last 2 decades have brought progressive advances in approaches that can be applied to genetic modification of large animals. Application of these approaches to genetic engineering of pigs has contributed to dramatic improvement in the outcome of experimental xenografts in nonhuman primates and have encouraged the development of a new type of xenograft, a reverse xenograft, in which human stem cells are introduced into pigs under conditions that support differentiation and expansion into functional tissues and potentially organs. These advances make it appropriate to consider the potential limitation of genetic engineering and of current models for advancing the clinical applications of xenotransplantation and reverse xenotransplantation.

Developmental bias in the fossil record

The role of developmental bias and plasticity in evolution is a central research interest in evolutionary biology. Studies of these concepts and related processes are usually conducted on extant systems and have seen limited investigation in the fossil record. Here, I identify plasticity-led evolution (PLE) as a form of developmental bias accessible through scrutiny of paleontological material. I summarize the process of PLE and describe it in terms of the environmentally mediated accumulation and release of cryptic genetic variation. Given this structure, I then predict its manifestation in the fossil record, discuss its similarity to quantum evolution and punctuated equilibrium, and argue that these describe macroevolutionary patterns concordant with PLE. Finally, I suggest methods and directions towards providing evidence of PLE in the fossil record and conclude that such endeavors are likely to be highly rewarding.

Developmental symbiosis facilitates the multiple origins of herbivory

Developmental bias toward particular evolutionary trajectories can be facilitated through symbiosis. Organisms are holobionts, consisting of zygote-derived cells and a consortia of microbes, and the development, physiology, and immunity of animals are properties of complex interactions between the zygote-derived cells and microbial symbionts. Such symbionts can be agents of developmental plasticity, allowing an organism to develop in particular directions. This plasticity can lead to genetic assimilation either through the incorporation of microbial genes into host genomes or through the direct maternal transmission of the microbes. Such plasticity can lead to niche construction, enabling the microbes to remodel host anatomy and/or physiology. In this article, I will focus on the ability of symbionts to bias development toward the evolution of herbivory. I will posit that the behavioral and morphological manifestations of herbivorous phenotypes must be preceded by the successful establishment of a community of symbiotic microbes that can digest cell walls and detoxify plant poisons. The ability of holobionts to digest plant materials can range from being a plastic trait, dependent on the transient incorporation of environmental microbes, to becoming a heritable trait of the holobiont organism, transmitted through the maternal propagation of symbionts or their genes.

Hybridization in human evolution: Insights from other organisms

During the late Pleistocene, isolated lineages of hominins exchanged genes thus influencing genomic variation in humans in both the past and present. However, the dynamics of this genetic exchange and associated phenotypic consequences through time remain poorly understood. Gene exchange across divergent lineages can result in myriad outcomes arising from these dynamics and the environmental conditions under which it occurs. Here we draw from our collective research across various organisms, illustrating some of the ways in which gene exchange can structure genomic/phenotypic diversity within/among species. We present a range of examples relevant to questions about the evolution of hominins. These examples are not meant to be exhaustive, but rather illustrative of the diverse evolutionary causes/consequences of hybridization, highlighting potential drivers of human evolution in the context of hybridization including: influences on adaptive evolution, climate change, developmental systems, sex-differences in behavior, Haldane's rule and the large X-effect, and transgressive phenotypic variation.

Historical contingency shapes adaptive radiation in Antarctic fishes

Adaptive radiation illustrates links between ecological opportunity, natural selection and the generation of biodiversity. Central to adaptive radiation is the association between a diversifying lineage and the evolution of phenotypic variation that facilitates the use of new environments or resources. However, is not clear whether adaptive evolution or historical contingency is more important for the origin of key phenotypic traits in adaptive radiation. Here we use targeted sequencing of >250,000 loci across 46 species to examine hypotheses concerning the origin and diversification of key traits in the adaptive radiation of Antarctic notothenioid fishes. Contrary to expectations of adaptive evolution, we show that notothenioids experienced a punctuated burst of genomic diversification and evolved key skeletal modifications before the onset of polar conditions in the Southern Ocean. We show that diversifying selection in pathways associated with human skeletal dysplasias facilitates ecologically important variation in buoyancy among Antarctic notothenioid species, and demonstrate the sufficiency of altered trip11, col1a2 and col1a1a function in zebrafish (Danio rerio) to phenocopy skeletal reduction in Antarctic notothenioids. Rather than adaptation being driven by the cooling of the Antarctic, our results highlight the role of historical contingency in shaping the adaptive radiation of notothenioids. Understanding the historical and environmental context for the origin of key traits in adaptive radiations extends beyond reconstructing events that result in evolutionary innovation, as it also provides a context in forecasting the effects of climate change on the stability and evolvability of natural populations.

Phylogenetic Comparative Methods can Provide Important Insights into the Evolution of Toxic Weaponry

The literature on chemical weaponry of organisms is vast and provides a rich understanding of the composition and mechanisms of the toxins and other components involved. However, an ecological or evolutionary perspective has often been lacking and is largely limited to (1) molecular evolutionary studies of particular toxins (lacking an ecological view); (2) comparisons across different species that ignore phylogenetic relatedness (lacking an evolutionary view); or (3) descriptive studies of venom composition and toxicology that contain post hoc and untested ecological or evolutionary interpretations (a common event but essentially uninformative speculation). Conveniently, comparative biologists have prolifically been developing and using a wide range of phylogenetic comparative methods that allow us to explicitly address many ecological and evolutionary questions relating to venoms and poisons. Nevertheless, these analytical tools and approaches are rarely used and poorly known by biological toxinologists and toxicologists. In this review I aim to (1) introduce phylogenetic comparative methods to the latter audience; (2) highlight the range of questions that can be addressed using them; and (3) encourage biological toxinologists and toxicologists to either seek out adequate training in comparative biology or seek collaboration with comparative biologists to reap the fruits of a powerful interdisciplinary approach to the field.

Developmental Bias and Evolution: A Regulatory Network Perspective

Phenotypic variation is generated by the processes of development, with some variants arising more readily than others-a phenomenon known as "developmental bias." Developmental bias and natural selection have often been portrayed as alternative explanations, but this is a false dichotomy: developmental bias can evolve through natural selection, and bias and selection jointly influence phenotypic evolution. Here, we briefly review the evidence for developmental bias and illustrate how it is studied empirically. We describe recent theory on regulatory networks that explains why the influence of genetic and environmental perturbation on phenotypes is typically not uniform, and may even be biased toward adaptive phenotypic variation. We show how bias produced by developmental processes constitutes an evolving property able to impose direction on adaptive evolution and influence patterns of taxonomic and phenotypic diversity. Taking these considerations together, we argue that it is not sufficient to accommodate developmental bias into evolutionary theory merely as a constraint on evolutionary adaptation. The influence of natural selection in shaping developmental bias, and conversely, the influence of developmental bias in shaping subsequent opportunities for adaptation, requires mechanistic models of development to be expanded and incorporated into evolutionary theory. A regulatory network perspective on phenotypic evolution thus helps to integrate the generation of phenotypic variation with natural selection, leaving evolutionary biology better placed to explain how organisms adapt and diversify.

Strong biomechanical relationships bias the tempo and mode of morphological evolution

The influence of biomechanics on the tempo and mode of morphological evolution is unresolved, yet is fundamental to organismal diversification. Across multiple four-bar linkage systems in animals, we discovered that rapid morphological evolution (tempo) is associated with mechanical sensitivity (strong correlation between a mechanical system's output and one or more of its components). Mechanical sensitivity is explained by size: the smallest link(s) are disproportionately affected by length changes and most strongly influence mechanical output. Rate of evolutionary change (tempo) is greatest in the smallest links and trait shifts across phylogeny (mode) occur exclusively via the influential, small links. Our findings illuminate the paradigms of many-to-one mapping, mechanical sensitivity, and constraints: tempo and mode are dominated by strong correlations that exemplify mechanical sensitivity, even in linkage systems known for exhibiting many-to-one mapping. Amidst myriad influences, mechanical sensitivity imparts distinct, predictable footprints on morphological diversity.

Modularity promotes morphological divergence in ray-finned fishes

Modularity is considered a prerequisite for the evolvability of biological systems. This is because in theory, individual modules can follow quasi-independent evolutionary trajectories or evolve at different rates compared to other aspects of the organism. This may influence the potential of some modules to diverge, leading to differences in disparity. Here, we investigated this relationship between modularity, rates of morphological evolution and disparity using a phylogenetically diverse sample of ray-finned fishes. We compared the support for multiple hypotheses of evolutionary modularity and asked if the partitions delimited by the best-fitting models were also characterized by the highest evolutionary rate differentials. We found that an evolutionary module incorporating the dorsal, anal and paired fins was well supported by the data, and that this module evolves more rapidly and consequently generates more disparity than other modules. This suggests that modularity may indeed promote morphological disparity through differences in evolutionary rates across modules.

Phenotypic plasticity, canalization, and the origins of novelty: Evidence and mechanisms from amphibians

A growing number of biologists have begun asking whether environmentally induced phenotypic change--'phenotypic plasticity'--precedes and facilitates the origin and canalization of novel, complex phenotypes. However, such 'plasticity-first evolution' (PFE) remains controversial. Here, we summarize the PFE hypothesis and describe how it can be evaluated in natural systems. We then review the evidence for PFE from amphibians (a group in which phenotypic plasticity is especially widespread) and describe how phenotypic plasticity might have facilitated macroevolutionary change. Finally, we discuss what is known about the proximate mechanisms of PFE in amphibians. We close with suggestions for future research. As we describe, amphibians offer some of the best support for plasticity's role in the origin of evolutionary novelties.

Approaches to Macroevolution: 2. Sorting of Variation, Some Overarching Issues, and General Conclusions

Approaches to macroevolution require integration of its two fundamental components, within a hierarchical framework. Following a companion paper on the origin of variation, I here discuss sorting within an evolutionary hierarchy. Species sorting-sometimes termed species selection in the broad sense, meaning differential origination and extinction owing to intrinsic biological properties-can be split into strict-sense species selection, in which rate differentials are governed by emergent, species-level traits such as geographic range size, and effect macroevolution, in which rates are governed by organism-level traits such as body size; both processes can create hitchhiking effects, indirectly causing the proliferation or decline of other traits. Several methods can operationalize the concept of emergence, so that rigorous separation of these processes is increasingly feasible. A macroevolutionary tradeoff, underlain by the intrinsic traits that influence evolutionary dynamics, causes speciation and extinction rates to covary in many clades, resulting in evolutionary volatility of some clades and more subdued behavior of others; the few clades that break the tradeoff can achieve especially prolific diversification. In addition to intrinsic biological traits at multiple levels, extrinsic events can drive the waxing and waning of clades, and the interaction of traits and events are difficult but important to disentangle. Evolutionary trends can arise in many ways, and at any hierarchical level; descriptive models can be fitted to clade trajectories in phenotypic or functional spaces, but they may not be diagnostic regarding processes, and close attention must be paid to both leading and trailing edges of apparent trends. Biotic interactions can have negative or positive effects on taxonomic diversity within a clade, but cannot be readily extrapolated from the nature of such interactions at the organismic level. The relationships among macroevolutionary currencies through time (taxonomic richness, morphologic disparity, functional variety) are crucial for understanding the nature of evolutionary diversification. A novel approach to diversity-disparity analysis shows that taxonomic diversifications can lag behind, occur in concert with, or precede, increases in disparity. Some overarching issues relating to both the origin and sorting of clades and phenotypes include the macroevolutionary role of mass extinctions, the potential differences between plant and animal macroevolution, whether macroevolutionary processes have changed through geologic time, and the growing human impact on present-day macroevolution. Many challenges remain, but progress is being made on two of the key ones: (a) the integration of variation-generating mechanisms and the multilevel sorting processes that act on that variation, and (b) the integration of paleontological and neontological approaches to historical biology.