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Onaka M, Kitano T, Yoshida S. Outbreak report of rotavirus gastroenteritis among remotely vaccinated travelers: A potential implication of booster vaccine for travelers to endemic countries. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2025; 21:2467475. [PMID: 40008469 PMCID: PMC11866960 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2025.2467475] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2024] [Revised: 01/16/2025] [Accepted: 01/31/2025] [Indexed: 02/27/2025] Open
Abstract
In countries in which rotavirus vaccines have been introduced for young infants, the incidence of rotavirus infections has dramatically decreased. This report presents an outbreak of rotavirus gastroenteritis among travelers. Data regarding the long-term protective effect of rotavirus vaccines after years of vaccination are scarce. A Japanese group of 14 children and nine adults traveled to Malaysia over 4 weeks. During travel, 15 of 23 patients developed gastroenteritis symptoms (Figure 1). Stool samples were collected from two symptomatic patients that tested positive for rotavirus. None of the five members with a history of rotavirus gastroenteritis developed symptoms. Nine of the 10 vaccinated children developed symptoms of acute gastroenteritis without the need for hospitalization. The only child without a history of vaccination or infection developed acute gastroenteritis and required hospitalization for continuous intravenous hydration. While individuals with a history of infection did not develop acute gastroenteritis, the protective effects of vaccination against symptomatic infection did not sustain long. This indicates the potential need for a booster dose of the rotavirus vaccine for travelers to rotavirus-endemic countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masayuki Onaka
- Department of Pediatrics, Nara Prefecture General Medical Center, Nara, Japan
| | - Taito Kitano
- Department of Pediatrics, Nara Prefecture General Medical Center, Nara, Japan
| | - Sayaka Yoshida
- Department of Pediatrics, Nara Prefecture General Medical Center, Nara, Japan
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Tătăranu E, Ion L, Nemțoi A, Filip F, Axinte S, Axinte R, Terteliu M, Anchidin-Norocel L, Diaconescu S. Emergency Care for Refugee Patients at Suceava Hospital, Romania: Challenges and Insights from the First Year of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict. Healthcare (Basel) 2025; 13:138. [PMID: 39857165 PMCID: PMC11765318 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare13020138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2024] [Revised: 01/09/2025] [Accepted: 01/11/2025] [Indexed: 01/27/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The ongoing military conflict in Ukraine has had a devastating impact on children's health, exposing them to a range of illnesses. The aim of this study was to analyze the most common medical conditions among Ukrainian children since the beginning of the conflict, with a focus on identifying and understanding these problems in a wartime setting. METHOD To assess the health status of affected children, we collected data from 422 pediatric patients who presented to the emergency department. The analysis included reviewing medical records, documenting the nature of illness, treatments administered, and the need for hospitalization. RESULTS Preliminary results indicate that interstitial pneumonia, contusions, gastroenterocolitis, and traumatic brain injury were the most common conditions. Of the 422 children studied, 80% received appropriate care without hospitalization, while 20% were admitted for further evaluation. CONCLUSIONS Interstitial pneumonia was diagnosed in 23% of patients, highlighting the vulnerability of the respiratory system under conflict conditions. Contusions were predominant among musculoskeletal injuries, accounting for 81% of cases, and gastroenterocolitis was diagnosed in 46% of patients, reflecting the impact of poor living conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elena Tătăranu
- "Sf. Ioan cel Nou" Clinical Emergency Hospital, 720237 Suceava, Romania
- Faculty of Medicine and Biological Sciences, Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, 720229 Suceava, Romania
| | - Laura Ion
- Faculty of Medicine, "Titu Maiorescu" University of Medicine, 031593 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Alexandru Nemțoi
- Faculty of Medicine and Biological Sciences, Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, 720229 Suceava, Romania
| | - Florin Filip
- "Sf. Ioan cel Nou" Clinical Emergency Hospital, 720237 Suceava, Romania
- Faculty of Medicine and Biological Sciences, Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, 720229 Suceava, Romania
| | - Sorin Axinte
- "Sf. Ioan cel Nou" Clinical Emergency Hospital, 720237 Suceava, Romania
- Faculty of Medicine and Biological Sciences, Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, 720229 Suceava, Romania
| | - Roxana Axinte
- "Sf. Ioan cel Nou" Clinical Emergency Hospital, 720237 Suceava, Romania
| | - Monica Terteliu
- "Sf. Ioan cel Nou" Clinical Emergency Hospital, 720237 Suceava, Romania
- Faculty of Medicine and Biological Sciences, Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, 720229 Suceava, Romania
| | - Liliana Anchidin-Norocel
- Faculty of Medicine and Biological Sciences, Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, 720229 Suceava, Romania
| | - Smaranda Diaconescu
- Faculty of Medicine, "Titu Maiorescu" University of Medicine, 031593 Bucharest, Romania
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Gleason A, Kumar CK, Klein E, Laxminarayan R, Nandi A. Effect of rotavirus vaccination on the burden of rotavirus disease and associated antibiotic use in India: A dynamic agent-based simulation analysis. Vaccine 2024; 42:126211. [PMID: 39137492 PMCID: PMC11385704 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2024] [Revised: 07/29/2024] [Accepted: 08/05/2024] [Indexed: 08/15/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhea in infants and young children in many low- and middle-income countries. India launched a childhood immunization program for rotavirus in 2016, starting with four states and expanding it to cover all states by 2019. The objective of this study was to estimate the effects of the rotavirus vaccination program in India on disease burden and antibiotic misuse. METHODS We built a dynamic agent-based model of rotavirus progression in children under five within each district in India. Simulations were run for various scenarios of vaccination coverage in the context of India's Universal Immunization Programme. Population data were obtained from the National Family Household Surveys and used to calibrate the models. Disease parameters were obtained from published studies. We estimated past and projected future reduction of disease burden and antibiotic misuse due to full vaccination nationwide, by state, and by wealth quintile. RESULTS We estimate that rotavirus vaccination in India has reduced the prevalence of rotavirus cases by 33.7% (prediction interval: 30.7-36.0%), total antibiotic misuse due to rotavirus by 21.8% (18.6-25.1%), and total deaths due to rotavirus by 38.3% (31.3-44.4%) for children under five. We estimate total antibiotic misuse due to rotavirus infection to be 7.6% (7.5-7.9%) of total antibiotic consumption in this demographic versus 9.6% (9.4-9.9%) in the absence of vaccination. We project rotaviral prevalence to drop to below one case for every 100,000 individuals in those below five if vaccination coverage is increased by 50.3% (45.2-58.5%) to 68.1% (63.1-76.4) nationwide. CONCLUSION Universal coverage of childhood rotavirus vaccination can substantially reduce inappropriate antibiotic use in India.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alec Gleason
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | | | - Eili Klein
- One Health Trust, Washington, DC, USA; Department of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Ramanan Laxminarayan
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; One Health Trust, Bengaluru, India
| | - Arindam Nandi
- One Health Trust, Washington, DC, USA; Population Council, 1 Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017, United States.
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Adeniyi-Ipadeola GO, Hankins JD, Kambal A, Zeng XL, Patil K, Poplaski V, Bomidi C, Nguyen-Phuc H, Grimm SL, Coarfa C, Stossi F, Crawford SE, Blutt SE, Speer AL, Estes MK, Ramani S. Infant and adult human intestinal enteroids are morphologically and functionally distinct. mBio 2024; 15:e0131624. [PMID: 38953637 PMCID: PMC11323560 DOI: 10.1128/mbio.01316-24] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2024] [Accepted: 05/29/2024] [Indexed: 07/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Human intestinal enteroids (HIEs) are gaining recognition as physiologically relevant models of the intestinal epithelium. While HIEs from adults are used extensively in biomedical research, few studies have used HIEs from infants. Considering the dramatic developmental changes that occur during infancy, it is important to establish models that represent infant intestinal characteristics and physiological responses. We established jejunal HIEs from infant surgical samples and performed comparisons to jejunal HIEs from adults using RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) and morphologic analyses. We then validated differences in key pathways through functional studies and determined whether these cultures recapitulate known features of the infant intestinal epithelium. RNA-Seq analysis showed significant differences in the transcriptome of infant and adult HIEs, including differences in genes and pathways associated with cell differentiation and proliferation, tissue development, lipid metabolism, innate immunity, and biological adhesion. Validating these results, we observed a higher abundance of cells expressing specific enterocyte, goblet cell, and enteroendocrine cell markers in differentiated infant HIE monolayers, and greater numbers of proliferative cells in undifferentiated 3D cultures. Compared to adult HIEs, infant HIEs portray characteristics of an immature gastrointestinal epithelium including significantly shorter cell height, lower epithelial barrier integrity, and lower innate immune responses to infection with an oral poliovirus vaccine. HIEs established from infant intestinal tissues reflect characteristics of the infant gut and are distinct from adult cultures. Our data support the use of infant HIEs as an ex vivo model to advance studies of infant-specific diseases and drug discovery for this population. IMPORTANCE Tissue or biopsy stem cell-derived human intestinal enteroids are increasingly recognized as physiologically relevant models of the human gastrointestinal epithelium. While enteroids from adults and fetal tissues have been extensively used for studying many infectious and non-infectious diseases, there are few reports on enteroids from infants. We show that infant enteroids exhibit both transcriptomic and morphological differences compared to adult cultures. They also differ in functional responses to barrier disruption and innate immune responses to infection, suggesting that infant and adult enteroids are distinct model systems. Considering the dramatic changes in body composition and physiology that begin during infancy, tools that appropriately reflect intestinal development and diseases are critical. Infant enteroids exhibit key features of the infant gastrointestinal epithelium. This study is significant in establishing infant enteroids as age-appropriate models for infant intestinal physiology, infant-specific diseases, and responses to pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Julia D. Hankins
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Amal Kambal
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
- Texas Medical Center Digestive Diseases Center Gastrointestinal Experimental Model Systems (GEMS) Core, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Xi-Lei Zeng
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
- Texas Medical Center Digestive Diseases Center Gastrointestinal Experimental Model Systems (GEMS) Core, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Ketki Patil
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Victoria Poplaski
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Carolyn Bomidi
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Hoa Nguyen-Phuc
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Sandra L. Grimm
- Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
- Center for Precision and Environmental Health, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Cristian Coarfa
- Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
- Center for Precision and Environmental Health, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Fabio Stossi
- Department of Molecular and Cellular Biology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
- Gulf Coast Consortium Center for Advanced Microscopy and Image Informatics, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Sue E. Crawford
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Sarah E. Blutt
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
- Texas Medical Center Digestive Diseases Center Gastrointestinal Experimental Model Systems (GEMS) Core, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Allison L. Speer
- Department of Pediatric Surgery, The University of Texas Health Science Center, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Mary K. Estes
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
- Texas Medical Center Digestive Diseases Center Gastrointestinal Experimental Model Systems (GEMS) Core, Houston, Texas, USA
- Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Sasirekha Ramani
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
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Wolken M, Wang M, Schedler J, Campos RH, Ensor K, Hopkins L, Treangen T, Stadler LB. PreK-12 school and citywide wastewater monitoring of the enteric viruses astrovirus, rotavirus, and sapovirus. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 931:172683. [PMID: 38663617 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172683] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2024] [Revised: 04/19/2024] [Accepted: 04/20/2024] [Indexed: 05/07/2024]
Abstract
Wastewater monitoring is an efficient and effective way to surveil for various pathogens in communities. This is especially beneficial in areas of high transmission, such as preK-12 schools, where infections may otherwise go unreported. In this work, we apply wastewater disease surveillance using school and community wastewater from across Houston, Texas to monitor three major enteric viruses: astrovirus, sapovirus genogroup GI, and group A rotavirus. We present the results of a 10-week study that included the analysis of 164 wastewater samples for astrovirus, rotavirus, and sapovirus in 10 preK-12 schools, 6 wastewater treatment plants, and 2 lift stations using newly designed RT-ddPCR assays. We show that the RT-ddPCR assays were able to detect astrovirus, rotavirus, and sapovirus in school, lift station, and wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) wastewater, and that a positive detection of a virus in a school sample was paired with a positive detection of the same virus at a downstream lift station or wastewater treatment plant over 97 % of the time. Additionally, we show how wastewater detections of rotavirus in schools and WWTPs were significantly associated with citywide viral intestinal infections. School wastewater can play a role in the monitoring of enteric viruses and in the detection of outbreaks, potentially allowing public health officials to quickly implement mitigation strategies to prevent viral spread into surrounding communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Madeline Wolken
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice University, 6100 Main Street MS-519, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Michael Wang
- Department of Bioengineering, Rice University, 6100 Main Street, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Julia Schedler
- Department of Statistics, Rice University, 6100 Main Street MS 138, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Roberto H Campos
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice University, 6100 Main Street MS-519, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Katherine Ensor
- Department of Statistics, Rice University, 6100 Main Street MS 138, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Loren Hopkins
- Department of Statistics, Rice University, 6100 Main Street MS 138, Houston, TX, United States of America; Houston Health Department, 8000 N. Stadium Dr., Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Todd Treangen
- Department of Bioengineering, Rice University, 6100 Main Street, Houston, TX, United States of America; Department of Computer Science, Rice University, 6100 Main Street, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Lauren B Stadler
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice University, 6100 Main Street MS-519, Houston, TX, United States of America.
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Adeniyi-Ipadeola GO, Hankins JD, Kambal A, Zeng XL, Patil K, Poplaski V, Bomidi C, Nguyen-Phuc H, Grimm SL, Coarfa C, Stossi F, Crawford SE, Blutt SE, Speer AL, Estes MK, Ramani S. Infant and Adult Human Intestinal Enteroids are Morphologically and Functionally Distinct. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2024:2023.05.19.541350. [PMID: 37292968 PMCID: PMC10245709 DOI: 10.1101/2023.05.19.541350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Background & Aims Human intestinal enteroids (HIEs) are gaining recognition as physiologically relevant models of the intestinal epithelium. While HIEs from adults are used extensively in biomedical research, few studies have used HIEs from infants. Considering the dramatic developmental changes that occur during infancy, it is important to establish models that represent infant intestinal characteristics and physiological responses. Methods We established jejunal HIEs from infant surgical samples and performed comparisons to jejunal HIEs from adults using RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) and morphologic analyses. We validated differences in key pathways through functional studies and determined if these cultures recapitulate known features of the infant intestinal epithelium. Results RNA-Seq analysis showed significant differences in the transcriptome of infant and adult HIEs, including differences in genes and pathways associated with cell differentiation and proliferation, tissue development, lipid metabolism, innate immunity, and biological adhesion. Validating these results, we observed a higher abundance of cells expressing specific enterocyte, goblet cell and enteroendocrine cell markers in differentiated infant HIE monolayers, and greater numbers of proliferative cells in undifferentiated 3D cultures. Compared to adult HIEs, infant HIEs portray characteristics of an immature gastrointestinal epithelium including significantly shorter cell height, lower epithelial barrier integrity, and lower innate immune responses to infection with an oral poliovirus vaccine. Conclusions HIEs established from infant intestinal tissues reflect characteristics of the infant gut and are distinct from adult cultures. Our data support the use of infant HIEs as an ex-vivo model to advance studies of infant-specific diseases and drug discovery for this population.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Julia D. Hankins
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
| | - Amal Kambal
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
- Texas Medical Center Digestive Diseases Center Gastrointestinal Experimental Model Systems (GEMS) Core
| | - Xi-Lei Zeng
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
- Texas Medical Center Digestive Diseases Center Gastrointestinal Experimental Model Systems (GEMS) Core
| | - Ketki Patil
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
| | - Victoria Poplaski
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
| | - Carolyn Bomidi
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
| | - Hoa Nguyen-Phuc
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
| | - Sandra L. Grimm
- Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
- Center for Precision and Environmental Health, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
| | - Cristian Coarfa
- Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
- Center for Precision and Environmental Health, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
| | - Fabio Stossi
- Department of Molecular and Cellular Biology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
- Golf Coast Consortium Center for Advanced Microscopy and Image Informatics, Houston, TX
| | - Sue E. Crawford
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
| | - Sarah E. Blutt
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
- Texas Medical Center Digestive Diseases Center Gastrointestinal Experimental Model Systems (GEMS) Core
| | - Allison L. Speer
- Department of Pediatric Surgery, The University of Texas Health Science Center, Houston, TX
| | - Mary K. Estes
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
- Texas Medical Center Digestive Diseases Center Gastrointestinal Experimental Model Systems (GEMS) Core
- Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
| | - Sasirekha Ramani
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
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Lee HJ, Choi Y, Park J, Choi YS, Yon DK, Kim DH. National Trends in Rotavirus Enteritis among Infants in South Korea, 2010-2021: A Nationwide Cohort. CHILDREN (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 10:1436. [PMID: 37761397 PMCID: PMC10529326 DOI: 10.3390/children10091436] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2023] [Revised: 08/18/2023] [Accepted: 08/21/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
Rotavirus causes a gastrointestinal tract infection that primarily affects young children. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, individuals infected with the virus were subjected to quarantine measures, with strong emphases on personal hygiene and social distancing. The present study aimed to evaluate the characteristics of rotaviruses and compare the prevalence of rotavirus infection before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. This nationwide representative study was conducted using data acquired from the National Health Insurance Service between 2010 and 2021. We analyzed the data of patients younger than 12 months old who were diagnosed with rotavirus enteritis between January 2010 and December 2021. During the study period, a total of 34,487 infants younger than 12 months were diagnosed with rotavirus enteritis in South Korea. During the two-year COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021), the rate of decline was significant (5843 cases in 2010 and 1125 in 2019), and by 2021, the total number of patients was almost negligible, as there are only 18 cases in 2021. A significant increase in the ratio of low birth weight (LBW) infants of inpatient department was observed from 2010 to 2021 (4.86% in 2010; 7.77% in 2019; and 23.08% in 2021), indicating that LBW infants are more vulnerable than infants born with normal weight. Average medical expenses related to rotavirus infections also declined significantly from 3,789,443,998 per year (pre-pandemic) to 808,353,795 per year (pandemic). Overall, personal hygiene and social distancing may play important roles in reducing rotavirus infections. However, further studies are needed to determine whether this decreasing trend persists after quarantine and whether the social life of individuals resumes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyun Jee Lee
- Department of Pediatrics, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea; (H.J.L.); (Y.-S.C.); (D.K.Y.)
| | - Yujin Choi
- Department of Korean Medicine, Kyung Hee University College of Korean Medicine, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea;
- Center for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea;
| | - Jaeyu Park
- Center for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea;
| | - Yong-Sung Choi
- Department of Pediatrics, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea; (H.J.L.); (Y.-S.C.); (D.K.Y.)
| | - Dong Keon Yon
- Department of Pediatrics, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea; (H.J.L.); (Y.-S.C.); (D.K.Y.)
- Center for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea;
| | - Do Hyun Kim
- Department of Pediatrics, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea; (H.J.L.); (Y.-S.C.); (D.K.Y.)
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Lappe BL, Wikswo ME, Kambhampati AK, Mirza SA, Tate JE, Kraay ANM, Lopman BA. Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study. BMC Infect Dis 2023; 23:254. [PMID: 37081456 PMCID: PMC10117239 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08224-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2023] [Indexed: 04/22/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed. METHODS We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012-2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022-2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels. RESULTS We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70-90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70-90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection. CONCLUSIONS These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brooke L Lappe
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA.
| | - Mary E Wikswo
- Division of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Anita K Kambhampati
- Division of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Sara A Mirza
- Division of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Jacqueline E Tate
- Division of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Alicia N M Kraay
- Department of Kinesiology and Community Health, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA
| | - Ben A Lopman
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA
- Epidemiology Department, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
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