Amblyomma ticks and future climate: Range contraction due to climate warming

Anopheles mosquitoes in Morocco: implication for public health and underlined challenges for malaria re-establishment prevention under current and future climate conditions

BACKGROUND

The potential reappearance and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases is one of the terrifying issues awaiting humanity in the context of climate change. The presence of competent Anopheles vectors, as well as suitable environmental circumstances, may result in the re-emergence of autochthonous Malaria, after years of absence. In Morocco, international travel and migration movements from Malaria-endemic areas have recently increased the number of imported cases, raising awareness of Malaria's possible reintroduction. Using machine learning we developed model predictions, under current and future (2050) climate, for the prospective distribution of Anopheles claviger, Anopheles labranchiae, Anopheles multicolor, and Anopheles sergentii implicated or incriminated in Malaria transmission.

RESULTS

All modelled species are expected to find suitable habitats and have the potential to become established in the northern and central parts of the country, under present-day conditions. Distinct changes in the distributions of the four mosquitoes are to be expected under climate change. Even under the most optimistic scenario, all investigated species are likely to acquire new habitats that are now unsuitable, placing further populations in danger. We also observed a northward and altitudinal shift in their distribution towards higher altitudes.

CONCLUSION

Climate change is expected to expand the potential range of malaria vectors in Morocco. Our maps and predictions offer a way to intelligently focus efforts on surveillance and control programmes. To reduce the threat of human infection, it is crucial for public health authorities, entomological surveillance teams, and control initiatives to collaborate and intensify their actions, continuously monitoring areas at risk. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Predicting the global potential distribution of two major vectors of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever under conditions of global climate change

Rocky Mountain spotted fever is a tick-borne disease that is highly dangerous but often overlooked by the public. To prevent the spread of the disease, it is important to understand the distribution patterns of its vectors' suitable areas. This study aims to explore the potential global suitability of areas for the vectors of Rocky Mountain spotted fever, including Dermacentor variabilis and Amblyomma cajennense under both historical and future climate scenarios. The study also seeks to investigate the impact of climatic factors on the distribution patterns of these vectors. Data on species distribution were downloaded from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Web of Science and PubMed database. The climatic variables were downloaded from WorldClim Global Climate Database. The Maximum Entropy Model was used to evaluate the contribution of monthly precipitation, monthly maximum temperature, monthly minimum temperature, elevation, and nineteen other climatic variables to vector survival, as well as to predict the suitable area for the vectors. We found that D. variabilis is distributed in North America, while A. cajennense is mainly distributed in South America, but all other continents except Antarctica have a suitable distribution. D. variabilis is more likely to survive in temperate regions, and A. cajennense is more likely to survive in tropical zones. D. variabilis is more sensitive to temperature, whereas A. cajennense is sensitive to both temperature and precipitation, and A. cajennense prefers tropical regions with hot and humid characteristics. The high suitable areas of both vectors were almost expanded in the ssp5-8.5 scenario, but not so much in the ssp1-2.6 scenario. Highly suitable areas with vectors survival should be strengthened with additional testing to prevent related diseases from occurring, and other highly suitable areas should be alert for entry and exit monitoring to prevent invasion and colonization of vectors.

First report of Amblyomma sculptum (Amblyomma cajennense complex) in a Brazilian state classified as a silent area for human rickettsiosis

Background and Aim

Studies on ticks of public health concern in equine husbandry are scarce in the Northeastern region of Brazil. This study aimed to investigate the presence of ticks on horses in the State of Alagoas, which is classified as a silent area for human rickettsiosis.

Materials and Methods

Ticks infesting horses were collected using anatomical tweezers or a commercial hook and kept in ethanol-labeled tubes for taxonomic identification.

Results

A total of 2,238 ticks were found. Ticks were identified as 2,215 (98.89%, 95% CI: 98.41-99.28) Dermacentor nitens, 19 (0.98%, 95% CI: 0.05-1.38) Amblyomma sculptum, and 4 (0.18%; 95% CI: 0.007-0.46) Rhipicephalus microplus.

Conclusion

This is the first study to report A. sculptum and D. nitens in the State of Alagoas. The presence of A. sculptum should draw the attention of public health managers once Alagoas State is considered a silent area for rickettsial diseases, which means the absence of local surveillance programs for these pathogens.

Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA

The greater U.S. Midwest is on the leading edge of tick and tick-borne disease (TBD) expansion, with tick and TBD encroachment into Illinois occurring from both the northern and the southern regions. To assess the historical and future habitat suitability of four ticks of medical concern within the state, we fit individual and mean-weighted ensemble species distribution models for Ixodes scapularis, Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis, and a newly invading species, Amblyomma maculatum using a variety of landscape and mean climate variables for the periods of 1970-2000, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080. Ensemble model projections for the historical climate were consistent with known distributions of each species but predicted the habitat suitability of A. maculatum to be much greater throughout Illinois than what known distributions demonstrate. The presence of forests and wetlands were the most important landcover classes predicting the occurrence of all tick species. As the climate warmed, the expected distribution of all species became strongly responsive to precipitation and temperature variables, particularly precipitation of the warmest quarter and mean diurnal range, as well as proximity to forest cover and water sources. The suitable habitat for I. scapularis, A. americanum, and A. maculatum was predicted to significantly narrow in the 2050 climate scenario and then increase more broadly statewide in the 2070 scenario but at reduced likelihoods. Predicting where ticks may invade and concentrate as the climate changes will be important to anticipate, prevent, and treat TBD in Illinois.

Phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism in sandflies (Diptera: Phlebotominae) and their relatives

Phylogenetic niche conservatism is a pattern in which closely related species are more similar than distant relatives in their niche-related traits. Species in the family Psychodidae show notable diversity in climatic niche, and present an opportunity to test for phylogenetic niche conservatism, which is as yet rarely studied in insects. Some species (in the subfamily Phlebotominae) transmit Leishmania parasites, responsible for the disease leishmaniasis, and their geographic range has been systematically characterized. Psychodid genus ranges can be solely tropical, confined to the temperate zones, or span both. We obtained observation site data, and associated climate data, for 234 psychodid species to understand which aspects of climate most closely predict distribution. Temperature and seasonality are strong determinants of species occurrence within the clade. Next, we built a phylogeny of Psychodidae, and found a positive relationship between pairwise genetic distance and climate niche differentiation, which indicates strong niche conservatism. This result is also supported by strong phylogenetic signals of metrics of climate differentiation. Finally, we used ancestral trait reconstruction to infer the tropicality (i.e., proportion of latitudinal range in the tropics minus the proportion of the latitudinal range in temperate areas) of ancestral species, and counted transitions to and from tropicality states. We find that tropical and temperate species produced almost entirely tropical and temperate descendant species, respectively. Taken together, our results imply that climate niches in psychodids are strongly predicted by phylogeny, and represent a formal test of a key prediction of phylogenetic niche conservatism in a clade with implications for human health.

A Scoping Review of Species Distribution Modeling Methods for Tick Vectors

Background

Globally, tick-borne disease is a pervasive and worsening problem that impacts human and domestic animal health, livelihoods, and numerous economies. Species distribution models are useful tools to help address these issues, but many different modeling approaches and environmental data sources exist.

Objective

We conducted a scoping review that examined all available research employing species distribution models to predict occurrence and map tick species to understand the diversity of model strategies, environmental predictors, tick data sources, frequency of climate projects of tick ranges, and types of model validation methods.

Design

Following the PRISMA-ScR checklist, we searched scientific databases for eligible articles, their references, and explored related publications through a graphical tool (www.connectedpapers.com). Two independent reviewers performed article selection and characterization using a priori criteria.

Results

We describe data collected from 107 peer-reviewed articles that met our inclusion criteria. The literature reflects that tick species distributions have been modeled predominantly in North America and Europe and have mostly modeled the habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus (n = 23; 21.5%). A wide range of bioclimatic databases and other environmental correlates were utilized among models, but the WorldClim database and its bioclimatic variables 1–19 appeared in 60 (56%) papers. The most frequently chosen modeling approach was MaxEnt, which also appeared in 60 (56%) of papers. Despite the importance of ensemble modeling to reduce bias, only 23 papers (21.5%) employed more than one algorithm, and just six (5.6%) used an ensemble approach that incorporated at least five different modeling methods for comparison. Area under the curve/receiver operating characteristic was the most frequently reported model validation method, utilized in nearly all (98.9%) included studies. Only 21% of papers used future climate scenarios to predict tick range expansion or contraction. Regardless of the representative concentration pathway, six of seven genera were expected to both expand and retract depending on location, while Ornithodoros was predicted to only expand beyond its current range.

Conclusion

Species distribution modeling techniques are useful and widely employed tools for predicting tick habitat suitability and range movement. However, the vast array of methods, data sources, and validation strategies within the SDM literature support the need for standardized protocols for species distribution and ecological niche modeling for tick vectors.

Seasonal dynamics of Amblyomma sculptum: a review

BACKGROUND

Amblyomma sculptum is a hard tick that is associated with domestic animals and the transmission of Brazilian spotted fever. This association has motivated several field studies on this ixodid tick within its distribution area in South America. Thorough knowledge of the seasonal dynamics of A. sculptum in different ecological scenarios is required in order to better understand the biological characteristics of this tick and develop techniques for the control and prevention of diseases transmitted by this vector. In this article, we systematically review the seasonal dynamics of A. sculptum and tick collection methodology.

METHODS

A systematic search of the Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed and Scielo databases was carried out for articles (including dissertations and theses) on the population dynamics of A. sculptum. The inclusion criterion was the report of seasonal dynamic studies on A. sculptum through surveys carried out for at least 1 year with, as methodology, tick collection in the environment and/or tick count/collection on A. sculptum primary hosts (horses or capybaras). Studies carried out before the reclassification of Amblyomma cajennense sensu lato in 2014, which referred to Amblyomma cajennense in areas where it is currently known that only A. sculptum occurs, were also included. Articles meeting the inclusion criterion, but not available in online databases, were also added based on the authors' experience on the subject. Sixteen articles and one thesis were selected for inclusion in this systematic review.

RESULTS

Most of the studies were carried out in the southeastern region of Brazil, with a few also carried out in the northeast, center-west and south of Brazil and northwest of Argentina. Five techniques/methods were applied across these studies: CO₂ traps, dragging, flagging, visual searches and tick counting on animals, used alone or in combination.

CONCLUSION

Seasonal dynamics of A. sculptum was found to be similar in almost all of the areas studied, with larvae predominating during the autumn, nymphs in the winter and adults in the spring and summer.

Climate change impacts on ticks and tick-borne infections

Evidence climate change is impacting ticks and tick-borne infections is generally lacking. This is primarily because, in most parts of the world, there are no long-term and replicated data on the distribution and abundance of tick populations, and the prevalence and incidence of tick-borne infections. Notable exceptions exist, as in Canada where the northeastern advance of Ixodes scapularis and Lyme borreliosis in the USA prompted the establishment of tick and associated disease surveillance. As a result, the past 30 years recorded the encroachment and spread of I. scapularis and Lyme borreliosis across much of Canada concomitant with a 2-3 °C increase in land surface temperature. A similar northerly advance of I. ricinus [and associated Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE)] has been recorded in northern Europe together with expansion of this species’ range to higher altitudes in Central Europe and the Greater Alpine Region, again concomitant with rising temperatures. Changes in tick species composition are being recorded, with increases in more heat tolerant phenotypes (such as Rhipicephalus microplus in Africa), while exotic species, such as Haemaphysalis longicornis and Hyalomma marginatum, are becoming established in the USA and Southern Europe, respectively. In the next 50 years these trends are likely to continue, whereas, at the southern extremities of temperate species’ ranges, diseases such as Lyme borreliosis and TBE may become less prevalent. Where socioeconomic conditions link livestock with livelihoods, as in Pakistan and much of Africa, a One Health approach is needed to tackling ticks and tick-borne infections under the increasing challenges presented by climate change.

Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) under Near Current and Future Climatic Conditions, Using the Maximum Entropy Model

Amblyomma americanum (the lone star tick) is a pathogen vector, mainly from eastern North America, that bites humans. With global integration and climate change, some ticks that are currently confined to a certain place may begin to spread out; some reports have shown that they are undergoing rapid range expansion. The difference in the potential geographic distribution of A. americanum under current and future climatic conditions is dependent on environment variables such as temperature and precipitation, which can affect their survival. In this study, we used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential geographic distribution of A. americanum. The MaxEnt model was calibrated at the native range of A. americanum using occurrence data and the current climatic conditions. Seven WorldClim climatic variables were selected by the jackknife method and tested in MaxEnt using different combinations of model feature class functions and regularization multiplier values. The best model was chosen based on the omission rate and the lowest Akaike information criterion. The resulting model was then projected onto the global scale using the current and future climate conditions modeled under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Potential distribution of Amblyomma mixtum (Koch, 1844) in climate change scenarios in the Americas

Amblyomma mixtum is a Neotropical generalist tick of medical and veterinary importance which is widely distributed from United States of America to Ecuador. The aim of this study was to evaluate changes in the geographic projections of the ecological niche models of A. mixtum in climate change scenarios in America. We constructed a database of published scientific publications, personal collections, personal communications, and online databases. Ecological niche modelling was performed with 15 Bioclimatic variables using kuenm in R and was projected to three time periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Current and 2050) for America. Our model indicated a wide distribution for A. mixtum, with higher probability of occurrence along the Gulf of Mexico and occurring in a lesser proportion in the Pacific states, Central America, and the northern part of South America. The areas of new invasion are located mainly on the border of Mexico with Guatemala and Belize, some regions of Central America and Colombia. We conclude that the ecological niche modelling are effective tools to infer the potential distribution of A. mixtum in America, in addition to helping to propose future measures of epidemiological control and surveillance in the new potential areas of invasion.

Models for Studying the Distribution of Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases in Animals: A Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis with a Focus on Africa

Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBD) are constraints to the development of livestock and induce potential human health problems. The worldwide distribution of ticks is not homogenous. Some places are ecologically suitable for ticks but they are not introduced in these areas yet. The absence or low density of hosts is a factor affecting the dissemination of the parasite. To understand the process of introduction and spread of TTBD in different areas, and forecast their presence, scientists developed different models (e.g., predictive models and explicative models). This study aimed to identify models developed by researchers to analyze the TTBD distribution and to assess the performance of these various models with a meta-analysis. A literature search was implemented with PRISMA protocol in two online databases (Scopus and PubMed). The selected articles were classified according to country, type of models and the objective of the modeling. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy available data of these models were used to evaluate their performance using a meta-analysis. One hundred studies were identified in which seven tick genera were modeled, with Ixodes the most frequently modeled. Additionally, 13 genera of tick-borne pathogens were also modeled, with Borrelia the most frequently modeled. Twenty-three different models were identified and the most frequently used are the generalized linear model representing 26.67% and the maximum entropy model representing 24.17%. A focus on TTBD modeling in Africa showed that, respectively, genus Rhipicephalus and Theileria parva were the most modeled. A meta-analysis on the quality of 20 models revealed that maximum entropy, linear discriminant analysis, and the ecological niche factor analysis models had, respectively, the highest sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve effect size among all the selected models. Modeling TTBD is highly relevant for predicting their distribution and preventing their adverse effect on animal and human health and the economy. Related results of such analyses are useful to build prevention and/or control programs by veterinary and public health authorities.

Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011-2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017-2018), and active surveillance (2019-2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km2, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km2, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km2. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.

Scoping review of distribution models for selected Amblyomma ticks and rickettsial group pathogens

The rising prevalence of tick-borne diseases in humans in recent decades has called attention to the need for more information on geographic risk for public health planning. Species distribution models (SDMs) are an increasingly utilized method of constructing potential geographic ranges. There are many knowledge gaps in our understanding of risk of exposure to tick-borne pathogens, particularly for those in the rickettsial group. Here, we conducted a systematic scoping review of the SDM literature for rickettsial pathogens and tick vectors in the genus Amblyomma. Of the 174 reviewed articles, only 24 studies used SDMs to estimate the potential extent of vector and/or pathogen ranges. The majority of studies (79%) estimated only tick distributions using vector presence as a proxy for pathogen exposure. Studies were conducted at different scales and across multiple continents. Few studies undertook original data collection, and SDMs were mostly built with presence-only datasets from public database or surveillance sources. The reliance on existing data sources, using ticks as a proxy for disease risk, may simply reflect a lag in new data acquisition and a thorough understanding of the tick-pathogen ecology involved.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Ticks and Tick-Borne Disease Risk

Ticks exist on all continents and carry more zoonotic pathogens than any other type of vector. Ticks spend most of their lives in the external environment away from the host and are thus expected to be affected by changes in climate. Most empirical and theoretical studies demonstrate or predict range shifts or increases in ticks and tick-borne diseases, but there can be a lot of heterogeneity in such predictions. Tick-borne disease systems are complex, and determining whether changes are due to climate change or other drivers can be difficult. Modeling studies can help tease apart and understand the roles of different drivers of change. Predictive models can also be invaluable in projecting changes according to different climate change scenarios. However, validating these models remains challenging, and estimating uncertainty in predictions is essential. Another focus for future research should be assessing the resilience of ticks and tick-borne pathogens to climate change.

MaxEnt Modeling of Dermacentor marginatus (Acari: Ixodidae) Distribution in Xinjiang, China

Dermacentor marginatus Sulkzer is a common tick species found in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) of China, and is a vector for a variety of pathogens. To determine the potential distribution of this tick species in Xinjiang, a metadata containing 84 D. marginatus presence records combined with four localities from field collection were used for MaxEnt modeling to predict potential distribution of this tick species. Identification of tick samples showed 756 of 988 (76%) were D. marginatus. MaxEnt modeling results indicated that the potential distribution of this tick species was mainly confined to northern XUAR. Highly suitable areas included west side of Altay mountain, west rim of Junggar basin, and Yili River valley in the study area. The model showed an AUC value of 0.838 ± 0.063 (SD), based on 10-fold cross-validation. Although tick presence records used for modeling were limited, this is the first regional tick distribution model for D. marginatus in Xinjiang. The model will be helpful in assessing the risk of tick-borne diseases to human and animals in the region.

Fleas of mammals and patterns of distributional congruence in northwestern Argentina: A preliminary biogeographic analysis

In few groups of parasites have the patterns of distribution been studied using quantitative methods, even though, the study of these organisms indirectly provides information on the biogeographic history of their hosts, and in turn, the history of the hosts allows elucidation of speciation events of the parasites. Our objective was to quantitatively identify distributional congruence patterns of native fleas in northwestern Argentina. We analyzed 159 georeferenced distributional records of 47 species and six subspecies of fleas in northwestern Argentina using NDM/VNDM software. We found eight consensus areas, defined by 17 species and two subspecies, included in six patterns of distributional congruence (PDCs) with endemic and non-endemic fleas. The PDCs with the greatest values of endemicity (E) were mainly associated with Monte and Yungas Forests areas. All patterns indicated strong tendency of the Yungas Forests as a possible endemism area. Our results indicate that distributional congruence centers are generally located in Yungas Forests areas and highlight the importance of these areas in conservation and historical biology. This new information will allow delimitation of areas in the region at a more detailed resolution in the future.

Mapping the Potential Distribution of Major Tick Species in China

Ticks are known as the vectors of various zoonotic diseases such as Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Though their occurrences are increasingly reported in some parts of China, our understanding of the pattern and determinants of ticks' potential distribution over the country remain limited. In this study, we took advantage of the recently compiled spatial dataset of distribution and diversity of ticks in China, analyzed the environmental determinants of ten frequently reported tick species and mapped the spatial distribution of these species over the country using the MaxEnt model. We found that presence of urban fabric, cropland, and forest in a place are key determents of tick occurrence, suggesting ticks were likely inhabited close to where people live. Besides, precipitation in the driest month was found to have a relatively high contribution in mapping tick distribution. The model projected that theses ticks could be widely distributed in the Northwest, Central North, Northeast, and South China. Our results added new evidence on the potential distribution of a variety of major tick species in China and pinpointed areas with a high potential risk of tick bites and tick-borne diseases for raising public health awareness and prevention responses.

Thermal Tolerance of Gloomy Scale (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) in the Eastern United States

An insect species' geographic distribution is probably delimited in part by physiological tolerances of environmental temperatures. Gloomy scale (Melanaspis tenebricosa (Comstock)) is a native insect herbivore in eastern U.S. forests. In eastern U.S. cities, where temperatures are warmer than nearby natural areas, M. tenebricosa is a primary pest of red maple (Acer rubrum L.; Sapindales: Sapindaceae) With warming, M. tenebricosa may spread to new cities or become pestilent in forests. To better understand current and future M. tenebricosa distribution boundaries, we examined M. tenebricosa thermal tolerance under laboratory conditions. We selected five hot and five cold experimental temperatures representative of locations in the known M. tenebricosa distribution. We built models to predict scale mortality based on duration of exposure to warm or cold experimental temperatures. We then used these models to estimate upper and lower lethal durations, i.e., temperature exposure durations that result in 50% mortality. We tested the thermal tolerance for M. tenebricosa populations from northern, mid, and southern locations of the species' known distribution. Scales were more heat and cold tolerant of temperatures representative of the midlatitudes of their distribution where their densities are the greatest. Moreover, the scale population from the northern distribution boundary could tolerate cold temperatures from the northern boundary for twice as long as the population collected near the southern boundary. Our results suggest that as the climate warms the M. tenebricosa distribution may expand poleward, but experience a contraction at its southern boundary.

Spatial distribution and spread potential of sixteen Leptospira serovars in a subtropical region of Brazil

Leptospirosis is a bacterial disease that represents a major problem in animal and public health due to its high prevalence and widespread distribution. This zoonotic disease is most prevalent in tropical environments where conditions favour pathogen survival. The ecological preferences of Leptospira serovars are poorly understood, limiting our knowledge of where and when outbreaks can occur, which may result in misinformed prevention and control plans. While the disease can occur consistently in time and space in tropical regions, research on the ecology of leptospirosis remains limited in subtropical regions. This research gap regarding Leptospira ecology brings public and veterinary health problems, impacting local economies. To fill this gap of knowledge, we suggest to assess geographic and ecological features among Leptospira serovars in a subtropical area of Brazil where leptospirosis is endemic to (a) highlight environmental conditions that facilitate or limit Leptospira spread and survival and (b) reconstruct its geographic distribution. An ecological niche modelling framework was used to characterize and compare Leptospira serovars in both geographic and environmental space. Our results show that despite the geographic overlap exhibited by the different serovars assessed, we found ecological divergence among their occupied ecological niches. Ecological divergences were expressed as ranges of potential distributions and environmental conditions found suitably by serovar, Sejroe being the most asymmetric (<0.15). Most important predictors for the potential distribution of most serovars were soil pH (31.7%) and landscape temperature (24.2%). Identification of environmental preferences will allow epidemiologists to better infer the presence of a serovar based on the environmental characteristics of regions rather than inferences based solely on historical epidemiological records. Including geographic and ecological ranges of serovars also may help to forecast transmission potential of Leptospira in public health and the food animal practice.

Ecological niche modeling re-examined: A case study with the Darwin's fox

Many previous studies have attempted to assess ecological niche modeling performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) approaches, even though diverse problems with this metric have been pointed out in the literature. We explored different evaluation metrics based on independent testing data using the Darwin's Fox (Lycalopex fulvipes) as a detailed case in point. Six ecological niche models (ENMs; generalized linear models, boosted regression trees, Maxent, GARP, multivariable kernel density estimation, and NicheA) were explored and tested using six evaluation metrics (partial ROC, Akaike information criterion, omission rate, cumulative binomial probability), including two novel metrics to quantify model extrapolation versus interpolation (E-space index I) and extent of extrapolation versus Jaccard similarity (E-space index II). Different ENMs showed diverse and mixed performance, depending on the evaluation metric used. Because ENMs performed differently according to the evaluation metric employed, model selection should be based on the data available, assumptions necessary, and the particular research question. The typical ROC AUC evaluation approach should be discontinued when only presence data are available, and evaluations in environmental dimensions should be adopted as part of the toolkit of ENM researchers. Our results suggest that selecting Maxent ENM based solely on previous reports of its performance is a questionable practice. Instead, model comparisons, including diverse algorithms and parameterizations, should be the sine qua non for every study using ecological niche modeling. ENM evaluations should be developed using metrics that assess desired model characteristics instead of single measurement of fit between model and data. The metrics proposed herein that assess model performance in environmental space (i.e., E-space indices I and II) may complement current methods for ENM evaluation.