Global Shifts in Cardiovascular Disease, the Epidemiologic Transition, and Other Contributing Factors: Toward a New Practice of Global Health Cardiology

Global, regional, and national time trends in ischaemic heart disease incidence over three decades (1990-2019): an age-period-cohort analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019

Introduction

To assess the prevailing trends in the incidence of ischemic heart disease (IHD) across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019, and to elucidate their correlations with age, period, and birth cohort, a comprehensive analysis was conducted.

Methods

From 1990 to 2019, we employed the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) Results Tool in conjunction with an age-period-cohort model. This approach facilitated the estimation of annual percentage changes in incidence, referred to as net drifts, encompassing the overall population. Additionally, we calculated annual percentage changes spanning ages 15 - 19 to 95 + years, denoted as local drifts. Furthermore, our analysis involved determining period and cohort relative risks, elucidating the effects associated with distinct periods and birth cohorts.

Results

Globally, 21,203,479 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 18,799,322 - 23,704,124] cases of IHD occurred in 2019. There were 33 countries with at least 100000 cases. Between 1990 and 2019, the net drift of IHD incidence exhibited a range from -1.7% per year [95% confidence interval (CI): -1.79, -1.61] in countries with a high socio-demographic index (SDI) to 0.08% per year (95% CI: 0.05, 0.11) in countries with a low SDI. Age effects across all countries and genders demonstrated an increasing trend over time, indicating age as a significant risk factor for IHD. Moreover, period and cohort effects in higher SDI countries exhibited a more rapid decline in both genders compared to lower SDI countries. The findings indicated that nations with a higher SDI manifested overall favorable trends in the relative risk of IHD incidence, both across time and in successive younger birth cohorts.

Discussion

The incidence of IHD serves as a valuable and accessible indicator for assessing trends in IHD provision, spanning from early youth through later life. Enhancements in IHD prevention have the potential to mitigate risks for successively younger cohorts and, over time, redistribute the risk across all age groups. Despite global declines in IHD incidence over the last three decades, decreasing trends in incidence have slowed and, in some countries, flattened. Many countries have experienced unfavorable period and cohort effects.

Metabolic and behavioural risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in Southern Latin America: analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 1990-2019

OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading causes of global mortality. Modifiable behavioural and metabolic risk factors significantly contribute to the burden of CVD. Given the vast socio-demographic and health outcome heterogeneity in Latin America, similar southern Latin American countries (Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay) were analysed as a distinct group to describe the CVD death rates related to metabolic and behavioural risk factors.

STUDY DESIGN

An ecological study was performed using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

METHODS

Metabolic and behavioural risk factors-related CVD death were examined by analysing age-standardised rates per 100,000 individuals in the three countries between 1990 and 2019.

RESULTS

While exposure to behavioural risk is decreasing, an upwards trend was observed in metabolic risks. Among the assessed risk factors, metabolic factors emerged as the primary contributors to deaths. High fasting plasma glucose exhibited a remarkable increase in relative importance across most studied contexts. Dietary risks stood out among behavioural factors due to their complexity and substantial changes observed. Although mortality rates have declined for overall CVD, peripheral artery disease mortality is rising.

CONCLUSION

Modifiable behavioural and metabolic risk factors significantly influence CVD mortality in Southern Latin America. Despite the increasing exposure to metabolic risks, advancements in prevention and treatment are evidenced in the decline of mortality rates for most CVD. These findings emphasise the need for targeted interventions and comprehensive strategies to address their impact on cardiovascular health, advocating for healthy lifestyle behaviours to mitigate the progression and CVD development.

Phenolic Compounds from Cherries and Berries for Chronic Disease Management and Cardiovascular Risk Reduction

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are a leading cause of mortality worldwide. Therefore, there is increasing interest in dietary interventions to reduce risk factors associated with these conditions. Cherries and berries are rich sources of bioactive compounds and have attracted attention for their potential cardiovascular benefits. This review summarises the current research on the effects of cherry and berry consumption on cardiovascular health, including in vivo studies and clinical trials. These red fruits are rich in phenolic compounds, such as anthocyanins and flavonoids, which have multiple bioactive properties. These properties include antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and vasodilatory effects. Studies suggest that regular consumption of these fruits may reduce inflammation and oxidative stress, leading to lower blood pressure, improved lipid profiles, and enhanced endothelial function. However, interpreting findings and establishing optimal dosages is a challenge due to the variability in fruit composition, processing methods, and study design. Despite these limitations, the evidence highlights the potential of cherries and berries as components of preventive strategies against CVD. Further research is needed to maximise their health benefits and improve clinical practice.

Improving Cardiovascular Risk in Postmenopausal Women with an (-)-Epicatechin-Based Nutraceutical: A Randomly Assigned, Double-Blind vs. Placebo, Proof-of-Concept Trial

BACKGROUND

Age-adjusted rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) are higher in men than in women. CVD risk-factor outcomes are underrecognized, underestimated, and undertreated in women because the clinical expressions in women differ from those of men. There are no universally accepted recommendations on what to do in women when the values of fasting glucose, blood pressure, and lipids are only slightly altered or at borderline values. We reported the positive effects on CVD risk markers using cacao by-products, showing that alternative approaches can be used to prevent cardiovascular disease in women. The objective was to evaluate the changes in lipoprotein subfractions induced by three months of treatment with an epicatechin-enriched cacao supplement.

METHODS

A double-blind, placebo-controlled proof-of-concept study was developed to evaluate the effects of 3 months of treatment with an (-)-epicatechin-enriched cacao supplement on lipoprotein subfractions.

RESULTS

The usual screening workshop for postmenopausal women could be insufficient and misleading. Assessing the effect of a (-)-epicatechin-enriched cacao supplement employing a lipoprotein subfractionation profile analysis suggests a decrease in cardiovascular risk.

CONCLUSIONS

A simple, low-cost, safe (-)-epicatechin-enriched cacao supplement product can improve the cardiovascular risk in postmenopausal women.

The Link between Overweight/Obesity and Noncommunicable Diseases in Ethiopia: Evidences from Nationwide WHO STEPS Survey 2015

Background

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide. Each year, 15 million adults die from NCDs; more than 85% of these premature deaths occur in low- and middle-income nations. Evidence indicates that overweight and obesity are the main risk factors for NCDs. Although the literature indicates that the burden of NCDs is increasing in Ethiopia, no research has been conducted to demonstrate a link between overweight/obesity and NCDs. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the association between overweight/obesity and the common NCDs while adjusting for other important factors.

Methods

We analysed data from the 2015 Ethiopia WHO STEPS survey, which was conducted in 2015. A total weighted sample of 9,800 participants (15-69 years) was included. The relationship between nutritional status and NCDs was assessed using bivariate and multivariable logistic regression models while adjusting for covariates.

Results

Among the 9,800 participants, 2053 (21% with (95% CI: 19.8-22.1) had hypertension and 1368 (14% with (95% CI: 13.1-15.0) had high cholesterol levels. According to the multivariable logistic regression analysis, being overweight/obese (AOR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.7-2.3), alcohol consumption, received lifestyle advice, being female, living in urban areas, increased age, having government occupation, and living in SNNP region were positively associated with hypertension. While being underweight (AOR = 0.6; 95% CI: 0.5-0.7), living in the Afar, Somali, and Tigray regions were negatively associated with hypertension. Being overweight/obese (AOR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1-1.7), being female, having older age, and living in Somali region were positively associated with a high cholesterol level. Whereas being underweight (AOR = 0.7; 95% CI: 0.6-0.9), received lifestyle advice, reside in rural areas, being farmer, student, and housewife, and living in Gambela region were negatively associated with a high cholesterol level.

Conclusion

This study found a statistically positive association between the common NCDs, namely, overweight/obesity, hypertension, and high cholesterol levels. Our findings imply that there is a need for effective interventions to prevent overweight/obesity by encouraging people to increase physical activity, minimize sedentary behavior, and maintain a healthy dietary pattern in order to reduce the risk of hypertension and high cholesterol levels.

The TG/HDL-c Lipid Ratio as a Cardiovascular Risk Marker in a Mexican Urban Middle-Class Population: Do We Need a Risk Score Tailored for Mexicans?

INTRODUCTION

Risk scores are essential in primary prevention to detect high-risk patients. The most common scores exclude hypertriglyceridemia and abdominal obesity in their risk assessment. We examined the triglyceride/HDL-cholesterol (TG/HDL-c) ratio as a cardiovascular (CV) risk marker in a middle-class urban Mexican population sample.

AIM

Our aim was to test the concept of a scoring system reflecting Mexican population characteristics.

METHODS

A total of 2602 healthy adults from the Lindavista primary prevention program were considered, evaluating gender, age, blood pressure, smoking, body mass index, waist circumference, lipid profile, and fasting glucose. According to the abnormality, a score from -3 to +3 was assigned.

RESULTS

The summation of eleven variables yielded the Lindavista score (LS), which was calibrated versus the TG/HDL ratio and ACC ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus score to determine its correlation with risk categories. The TG/HDL-c ratio had a linear correlation with LS and high-risk ACC ASCVD categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with LS and TG/HDL-c, the ACC ASCVD system underestimates the high-risk category. The high prevalence of obesity and lipid triad in the Mexican population requires a scale that considers those traits. The TG/HDL-c ratio is a practical, easy, and economical instrument to categorize risk in Mexicans.

Metabolic Syndrome in HIV: Prevalence, correlates, concordance of Diagnostic Criteria and relationship to Carotid Intimal Media Thickness in a Sub-Saharan Population

Background

The prevalence and usefulness of MetS in determining CVD risk in at-risk populations are influenced by its definition. In a cohort of HIV-positive Nigerians, we evaluated MetS based on various defining criteria, their agreement with one another, and their association to a CVD endpoint, Carotid-Intimal-Media-Thickness (CIMT).

Methodology

In this cross-sectional study, 145 HIV-positive individuals who were enrolled in HIV clinics at the Faith Alive Foundation and Jos University Teaching Hospital in Jos, Nigeria, were randomly chosen. Biophysical and anthropometric measurements including blood pressure, height, weight, waist circumference, and hip-circumference, as well as clinical records, CIMT, fasting plasma glucose, and lipid profile, were assessed.

Result

The median (Interquartile range) age of the participants was 41 (35-88) years, and the majority (71.7%) were females. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) by the Adult Treatment Panel-III (ATP), International Diabetes Federation (IDF), and Joint Interim Statement (JIS) criteria were 30.3%, 32.4%, and 35.2% respectively. MetS by all criteria was more prevalent among females and participants ≥ 40 years, p<0.05. Low HDLc (93.6-95.5%), Central obesity (86.3-95.5%), and hypertension (80.9-86.4%) were the most frequent components of MetS. HIV-related parameters were not associated with MetS. The overall agreement among MetS criteria was almost perfect between IDF and JIS criteria (k=0.94); and strong between IDF vs., ATP (k=0.82) and ATP vs. JIS (k=0.89). There was no significant difference in the median CIMT in PLHIV with and without MetS across all defining criteria.

Conclusion

The prevalence of MetS in PLHIV is relatively high, particularly among females and older individuals. The correlations between the defining criteria were fairly strong and consistent across subpopulations of PLHIV. MetS based on these criteria, however, do not significantly correlate with rising CIMT.

Brisk Walking Pace Is Associated with Better Cardiometabolic Health in Adults: Findings from the Chilean National Health Survey 2016-2017

BACKGROUND

Although the importance of walking for promoting a better cardiometabolic health is widely known (this includes both cardiovascular and metabolic/endocrine systems), there is little knowledge regarding its appropriate pace to provide adults with more cardiometabolic benefits.

AIM

To analyze the associations between different walking pace categories and cardiometabolic health markers in the adult Chilean population.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study. A total of 5520 participants aged 15 to 90 years old from the Chilean National Health Survey (CNHS) 2016-2017 were included. Walking pace categories (slow, average, and brisk) were collected through self-reported methods. Glycaemia, glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT), vitamin D2, vitamin D3, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and lipid profile (Total, HDL, LDL, VLDL, No HDL cholesterol and triglycerides) were determined using blood sample tests and measured with the standardized methods described in the CNHS 2016-2017.

RESULTS

People who had a brisk walking pace were associated with lower levels of glycaemia, HbA1c, GGT, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and higher vitamin D3 levels compared with those with a slow walking pace. Moreover, people with a brisk walking pace had lower levels of VLDL cholesterol compared with those with a slow walking pace. However, after adjusting the model to include sociodemographic background, nutritional status, and lifestyle variables, the differences remained only for glycaemia, HbA1c and systolic blood pressure levels.

CONCLUSIONS

A brisk walking pace was associated with better cardiometabolic health markers and lipid profile compared with a slow walking pace.

The urban built environment and adult BMI, obesity, and diabetes in Latin American cities

Latin America is the world's most urbanized region and its heterogeneous urban development may impact chronic diseases. Here, we evaluated the association of built environment characteristics at the sub-city -intersection density, greenness, and population density- and city-level -fragmentation and isolation- with body mass index (BMI), obesity, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Data from 93,280 (BMI and obesity) and 122,211 individuals (T2D) was analysed across 10 countries. Living in areas with higher intersection density was positively associated with BMI and obesity, whereas living in more fragmented and greener areas were negatively associated. T2D was positively associated with intersection density, but negatively associated with greenness and population density. The rapid urban expansion experienced by Latin America provides unique insights and vastly expand opportunities for population-wide urban interventions aimed at reducing obesity and T2D burden.

Trends and geographical variation in mortality from coronary disease in Peru

Background

Coronary disease (CD) is the main cause of mortality worldwide. Data about trends and geographical variation in CD mortality is available in some American countries. This information varies among countries since CD risk factors frequencies vary.

Objective

To describe the trend and geographical variation of coronary disease (CD) mortality in Peru, 2005–2017.

Methods

Analysis of secondary data of the Peruvian Ministry of Health’s registry of deaths. We analyzed CD mortality. We described the absolute and relative frequency of deaths and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) by natural regions, departments, age, sex, and year. We also described the change of ASMR between two periods (2005–2010 vs. 2011–2017).

Results

There were 64,721 CD deaths between 2005 and 2017 (4.12% among all deaths). The absolute frequency of CD deaths was 5,665 and 6,565 in 2005 and 2017, respectively. CD mortality was more frequent in men and older adults. The ASMR varied among natural regions, being higher in the Coast (19.61 per 100,000 inhabitants). The change between the two periods revealed that almost all departments reduced their ASMRs, except for Callao, Lambayeque, and Madre de Dios.

Conclusion

CD mortality has increased in Peru. Mortality was higher in men and older adults, and it varied among departments. More political efforts are needed to reduce these trends.

Epidemiology and Economic Burden of Continuing Challenge of Infectious Diseases in India: Analysis of Socio-Demographic Differentials

Unlike other low- and middle-income countries, infectious diseases are still predominant, and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are emerging without replacing the burden of infectious diseases in India, where it is imposing a double burden of diseases on households in the country. This study aimed to analyse the socio-economic and demographic differentials in the magnitude of economic burden and coping strategies associated with health expenditure on infectious diseases in India. National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) data on “Key Indicators of Social Consumption in India: Health, (2017–18)” have been employed in this study. The findings of the study revealed that more than 33% of the individuals are still suffering from infectious diseases out of the total ailing population in India. Based on the various socio-economic and demographic covariates, infectious diseases are highly prevalent among individuals with marginalized characteristics, such as individuals residing in rural areas, females, 0–14 age groups, Muslims, illiterates, scheduled tribes (STs), and scheduled castes (SCs), large family households, and economically poor people in the country. The per capita out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure on infectious diseases is INR 7.28 and INR 29.38 in inpatient and outpatient care, respectively. Whereas, monthly per patient OOP expenditure on infectious diseases by infection-affected populations is INR 881.56 and INR 1,156.34 in inpatient and outpatient care in India. The study found that people residing in rural areas, SCs followed by other backward classes (OBCs), illiterates, poor, and very poor are more dependent on borrowings, sale of assets, and other distressed sources of financing. However, under National Health Policy 2017, many initiatives, such as “Ayushman Bharat,” PM-JAY, and National Digital Health Mission (NDHM) in 2021, have been launched by the government of India in the recent years. These initiatives are holistically launched for ensuring better health facilities, but it is early to make any prediction regarding its outcomes; hopefully, the time will define it over the passing of a few more years. Finally, the study proposed the need for proper implementations of policy initiatives, awareness against unhygienic conditions and contamination of illnesses, immunisations/vaccination campaigns, subsidized medical facilities, and the country's expansion of quality primary health-care facilities.

Metabolic syndrome in rural Peruvian adults living at high altitudes using different cookstoves

This study determined the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in open fire stoves and improved cookstoves users (ICS) in the rural Peruvian Andes. Participants answered a socioeconomic questionnaire, one 24-hour food recall and underwent a physical examination. We analysed data from 385 participants, 190 (112 women and 78 men) were ICS users and 195 (123 women and 72 men) were open fire stove users. The prevalence of MetS was 21.3, 26.4% in women and 13.3% in men. We found no statistically significant association between the type of cookstove and MetS. Body mass index and altitude were important determinants of MetS. Research on cardiometabolic diseases and open fire stove use contributes to understanding the effect of household air pollution on health in high altitude populations.

Multimorbidity of non-communicable diseases in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Multimorbidity is a major public health challenge, with a rising prevalence in low/middle-income countries (LMICs). This review aims to systematically synthesise evidence on the prevalence, patterns and factors associated with multimorbidity of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among adults residing in LMICs.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of articles reporting prevalence, determinants, patterns of multimorbidity of NCDs among adults aged >18 years in LMICs. For the PROSPERO registered review, we searched PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane libraries for articles published from 2009 till 30 May 2020. Studies were included if they reported original research on multimorbidity of NCDs among adults in LMICs.

RESULTS

The systematic search yielded 3272 articles; 39 articles were included, with a total of 1 220 309 participants. Most studies used self-reported data from health surveys. There was a large variation in the prevalence of multimorbidity; 0.7%-81.3% with a pooled prevalence of 36.4% (95% CI 32.2% to 40.6%). Prevalence of multimorbidity increased with age, and random effect meta-analyses showed that female sex, OR (95% CI): 1.48, 1.33 to 1.64, being well-off, 1.35 (1.02 to 1.80), and urban residence, 1.10 (1.01 to 1.20), respectively were associated with higher odds of NCD multimorbidity. The most common multimorbidity patterns included cardiometabolic and cardiorespiratory conditions.

CONCLUSION

Multimorbidity of NCDs is an important problem in LMICs with higher prevalence among the aged, women, people who are well-off and urban dwellers. There is the need for longitudinal data to access the true direction of multimorbidity and its determinants, establish causation and identify how trends and patterns change over time.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019133453.

Multimorbidity matters in low and middle-income countries

Multimorbidity is a complex challenge affecting individuals, families, caregivers, and health systems worldwide. The burden of multimorbidity is remarkable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) given the many existing challenges in these settings. Investigating multimorbidity in LMICs poses many challenges including the different conditions studied, and the restriction of data sources to relatively few countries, limiting comparability and representativeness. This has led to a paucity of evidence on multimorbidity prevalence and trends, disease clusters, and health outcomes, particularly longitudinal outcomes. In this paper, based on our experience of investigating multimorbidity in LMICs contexts, we discuss how the structure of the health system does not favor addressing multimorbidity, and how this is amplified by social and economic disparities and, more recently, by the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that generating epidemiologic data around multimorbidity with similar methods and definition is essential to improve comparability, guide clinical decision-making and inform policies, research priorities, and local responses. We call for action on policy to refinance and prioritize primary care and integrated care as the center of multimorbidity.

Multimorbidity matters in low and middle-income countries

Multimorbidity is a complex challenge affecting individuals, families, caregivers, and health systems worldwide. The burden of multimorbidity is remarkable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) given the many existing challenges in these settings. Investigating multimorbidity in LMICs poses many challenges including the different conditions studied, and the restriction of data sources to relatively few countries, limiting comparability and representativeness. This has led to a paucity of evidence on multimorbidity prevalence and trends, disease clusters, and health outcomes, particularly longitudinal outcomes. In this paper, based on our experience of investigating multimorbidity in LMICs contexts, we discuss how the structure of the health system does not favor addressing multimorbidity, and how this is amplified by social and economic disparities and, more recently, by the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that generating epidemiologic data around multimorbidity with similar methods and definition is essential to improve comparability, guide clinical decision-making and inform policies, research priorities, and local responses. We call for action on policy to refinance and prioritize primary care and integrated care as the center of multimorbidity.

Scaling of mortality in 742 metropolitan areas of the Americas

We explored how mortality scales with city population size using vital registration and population data from 742 cities in 10 Latin American countries and the United States. We found that more populated cities had lower mortality (sublinear scaling), driven by a sublinear pattern in U.S. cities, while Latin American cities had similar mortality across city sizes. Sexually transmitted infections and homicides showed higher rates in larger cities (superlinear scaling). Tuberculosis mortality behaved sublinearly in U.S. and Mexican cities and superlinearly in other Latin American cities. Other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deaths, and deaths due to noncommunicable diseases were generally sublinear in the United States and linear or superlinear in Latin America. Our findings reveal distinct patterns across the Americas, suggesting no universal relation between city size and mortality, pointing to the importance of understanding the processes that explain heterogeneity in scaling behavior or mortality to further advance urban health policies.

Epidemiology of Cardiovascular Diseases in Morocco: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE: To provide a systematic review of studies on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and their risk factors in the Moroccan population. METHODS: A systematic analysis was performed based on PRISMA guidelines by retrieving data bases (Medline, Embase, and other) using technical keywords in addition to manual research on official websites. Published studies in the English or French language, conducted in Morocco or concerning the Moroccan population within the last two decades, were identified. RESULTS: This is the first systematic review of CVD in Morocco. Data from 159 studies were retrieved and analyzed. Most studies were written in the English language (75.89%) and published between 2010 and 2019 (85.47%). The mortality rate caused by CVD in Morocco has reached 38%, with ischemic heart disease and stroke as the main events causing death (31.0% and 22.5% respectively). The risk factors present in the population studied were headed by tobacco smoking (45- 50%), followed by physical inactivity (21.1%), elevated rate of hypertension (25.3%), and depression (5.47%). Impacted by a high rate of illiteracy and poverty and an unprepared health care system in Morocco, these numbers are expected to increase over the next decade. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these alarming incidences, investment in scientific research and epidemiological studies should be increased to determine the needs of the local population. The available evidence shows that the risk of cardiovascular disease and the associated mortality is very high in Morocco and will rise in the next years prospectively, which calls for urgent multi-sectorial approaches and treatment strategies.

Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease and Attributable Risk Factors, 1990-2017: A Secondary Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) stratified by gender, age, geographic location, and social-demographic status for 21 regions across the world from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

Using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) Results Tool, we extracted data on the incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates related to IHD, as IHD burden measures. Trend analyzes were conducted for major regions. Risk factors for DALYs (obtained from the GBD comparative risk assessment framework) were also analyzed.

RESULTS

Globally, 10.6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 9.6-11.8) cases of IHD occurred in 2017, with 8.9 million (95%UI:8.8-9.1) IHD-related deaths. Both the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and death rate (ASDR) declined from 1990 to 2017 (percentage change: 27.4% and 30.0%, respectively), with average annual percent change (AAPC) values of -1.2% and -1.3%, respectively. In 2017, the global number of IHD-related DALYs was 170.3 million (95%UI:167.1-174.0), and the middle socio-demographic index (SDI) quintile contributed the most to these DALYs. In most regions, indicators (incidence, mortality, and DALYs) declined steadily with SDI increased. High systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the most significant contributor to the DALYs in most regions, accounting for 118.18 million DALYs in 2017 globally, followed by high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and a diet low in nuts and seeds (101.78 and 52.86 million, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Even though the trend in IHD morbidity and mortality decreased globally, the IHD burden remains high, particularly in regions with lower SDI. It is necessary to learn successful and effective experience in controlling IHD risks and decreasing health disparities to reduce the IHD burden.

Measuring the global, regional, and national burden of type 2 diabetes and the attributable risk factors in all 194 countries

BACKGROUND

No detailed quantitative global, regional, or national estimates of the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are available.

METHODS

We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to estimate the global, regional, and national incidence rates and DALYs of T2DM, as well as the associated risk factors, in all 194 countries and territories by age, sex, and sociodemographic status during the period from 2007 to 2017.

RESULTS

Globally, the age-standardized incidence and DALY rates increased by 3.23% and 5.07% during 2007 to 2017, respectively. The age-standardized incidence and DALY rates in 2017 and the corresponding percentage changes during 2007 to 2017 were highest in the low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile. Regionally, the highest 2017 age-standardized incidence and DALY rates were observed in Oceania, whereas the largest percentage increases in both rates during 2007 to 2017 were observed in Southeast Asia. Nationally, Iran, the United Kingdom, and Indonesia reported the largest percentage increases in the age-standardized incidence rates, whereas Georgia, Czech Republic, and Iran showed the largest percentage increases in the age-standardized DALY rates. Globally, the largest percentage increases in risk-attributable DALYs were associated with a high body mass index, low physical activity level, high fasting plasma glucose level, and high sugar-sweetened beverage and red meat consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

The global T2DM age-standardized incidence and DALY rates increased globally between 2007 and 2017, especially in the low-middle SDI quintile, Southeast Asia.

[Profiles of epidemiological-nutritional transition and burden of morbimortality from COVID-19 in Argentina: an ecological study]

The study aimed to identify epidemiological-nutritional profiles in Argentina and to compare the burden of morbimortality from COVID-19. A multigroup ecological study was conducted with 24 geographic units in Argentina. We estimated the percent change from 2005 to 2018 in indicators of the epidemiological-nutritional transition and sociodemographic indicators according to geographic unit. We performed principal components analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis to identify geographic groupings to define profiles in the epidemiological-nutritional transition. By group, we calculated summary measures of COVID-19 cumulative incidence (CI), mortality, and case fatality (epidemiological week 50), establishing comparisons via Student's t test. Three profiles were identified: (1) reemergence of infectious diseases, (2) persistence of cardiovascular diseases despite social, health, and lifestyle improvements, and (3) consolidation of the triad obesity-sedentarism-cardiometabolic diseases. Mean COVID-19 cumulative incidence and mortality were higher in provinces with profile 1 compared to profile 2 (CI: p = 0.0159; mortality: p = 0.0187) and profile 3 (CI: p = 0.0205). Case-fatality was higher in profile 3, which includes provinces with more unfavorable socioeconomic conditions, showing significant differences from profile 2 (p=0.0307). In conclusion, there are distinct epidemiological-nutritional profiles in Argentina which tend to differ in terms of their COVID-19 epidemiological situation. Strategies to fight COVID-19 should consider the underlying epidemiological, nutritional, and sociodemographic characteristics.

Forty years after Alma-Ata: primary health-care preparedness for chronic diseases in Mozambique, Nepal and Peru

Background

Four decades after the Alma-Ata Declaration, strengthening primary health care (PHC) remains a priority for health systems, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Given the prominence of chronic diseases as a global health issue, PHC must include a wide range of components in order to provide adequate care.

Objective

To assess PHC preparedness to provide chronic care in Mozambique, Nepal and Peru, we used, as ‘tracer conditions’, diabetes, hypertension and a country-specific neglected tropical disease with chronic sequelae in each country.

Methods

By implementing a health system assessment, we collected quantitative and qualitative data from primary and secondary sources, including interviews of key informants at three health-system levels (macro, meso and micro). The World Health Organization’s health-system building blocks provided the basis for content analysis.

Results

In total, we conducted 227 interviews. Our findings show that the ambitious policies targeting specific diseases lack the support of technical, administrative and financial resources. Data collection systems do not allow the monitoring of individual patients or provide the health system with the information it requires. Patients receive limited disease-specific information. Clinical guidelines and training are either non-existent or not adapted to local contexts. Availability of medicines and diagnostic tests at the PHC level is an issue. Although medicines available through the public health care system are affordable, some essential medicines suffer shortages or are not available to PHC providers. This need, along with a lack of clear referral procedures and available transportation, generates financial issues for individuals and affects access to health care.

Conclusion

PHC in these LMICs is not well prepared to provide adequate care for chronic diseases. Improving PHC to attain universal health coverage requires strengthening the identified weaknesses across health-system building blocks.

Current State of Diabetes Mellitus Prevalence, Awareness, Treatment, and Control in Latin America: Challenges and Innovative Solutions to Improve Health Outcomes Across the Continent

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Latin America is the scenario of great inequalities where about 32 million human beings live with diabetes. Through this review, we aimed at describing the current state of the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of diabetes mellitus and completion of selected guidelines of care across Latin America and identify opportunities to advance research that promotes better health outcomes.

RECENT FINDINGS

The prevalence of diabetes mellitus has been consistently increasing across the region, with some variation: higher prevalence in Mexico, Haiti, and Puerto Rico and lower in Colombia, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Peru, and Uruguay. Prevalence assessment methods vary, and potentially underestimating the real number of persons with diabetes. Diabetes unawareness varies widely, with up to 50% of persons with diabetes who do not know they may have the disease. Glycemic, blood pressure, and LDL-C control and completion of guidelines to prevent microvascular complications are not consistently assessed across studies, and the achievement of control goals is suboptimal. On the other hand, multiple interventions, point-of-care/rapid assessment tools, and alternative models of health care delivery have been proposed and tested throughout Latin America. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus continues to rise across Latin America, and the number of those with the disease may be underestimated. However, some local governments are embedding more comprehensive diabetes assessments in their local national surveys. Clinicians and public health advocates in the region have proposed and initiated various multi-level interventions to address this enormous challenge in the region.

Cardiometabolic-Based Chronic Disease, Adiposity and Dysglycemia Drivers: JACC State-of-the-Art Review

A new cardiometabolic-based chronic disease (CMBCD) model is presented that provides a basis for early and sustainable, evidence-based therapeutic targeting to promote cardiometabolic health and mitigate the development and ravages of cardiovascular disease. In the first part of this JACC State-of-the-Art Review, a framework is presented for CMBCD, focusing on 3 primary drivers (genetics, environment, and behavior) and 2 metabolic drivers (adiposity and dysglycemia) with applications to 3 cardiovascular endpoints (coronary heart disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation). Specific mechanistic pathways are presented configuring early primary drivers with subsequent adiposity, insulin resistance, β-cell dysfunction, and metabolic syndrome, leading to cardiovascular disease. The context for building this CMBCD model is to expose actionable targets for prevention to achieve optimal cardiovascular outcomes. The tactical implementation of this CMBCD model is the subject of second part of this JACC State-of-the-Art Review.

Cardiometabolic-Based Chronic Disease, Adiposity and Dysglycemia Drivers: JACC State-of-the-Art Review

A new cardiometabolic-based chronic disease (CMBCD) model is presented that provides a basis for early and sustainable, evidence-based therapeutic targeting to promote cardiometabolic health and mitigate the development and ravages of cardiovascular disease. In the first part of this JACC State-of-the-Art Review, a framework is presented for CMBCD, focusing on 3 primary drivers (genetics, environment, and behavior) and 2 metabolic drivers (adiposity and dysglycemia) with applications to 3 cardiovascular endpoints (coronary heart disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation). Specific mechanistic pathways are presented configuring early primary drivers with subsequent adiposity, insulin resistance, β-cell dysfunction, and metabolic syndrome, leading to cardiovascular disease. The context for building this CMBCD model is to expose actionable targets for prevention to achieve optimal cardiovascular outcomes. The tactical implementation of this CMBCD model is the subject of second part of this JACC State-of-the-Art Review.

Do Illness Perception Predict Perceived Learning Needs Among Patients Treated With Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND

The number of coronary heart disease (CHD) patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has increased. The illness perception (IP) of PCI recipients needs to be evaluated. Yet, little is known whether patients' IP predicts perceived learning needs among patients treated with PCI.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess patients' IP and to examine its influence on perceived learning needs post PCI.

METHODS

A cross-sectional design was used. A convenience sample of 208 patients who had undergone first-time PCI participated in the study. Data were collected before patients were discharged from the hospital using the Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire and the Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Learning Need Scale.

RESULTS

Patients were highly concerned about their illness and perceived high consequences and symptoms related to CHD. They perceived low levels of personal and treatment control over their illness. Patients reported high learning needs. Multiple linear regression showed that low perception of personal control (P < .037), treatment control (P < .041), and high perception of disease symptoms (P < .018) significantly predicted high perceived learning needs.

CONCLUSION

Hence, the patients' IP influences perceived learning needs, which may be included in routine clinical assessments. Tailored health education programs are needed for patients treated with PCI; such a program should target patients who perceived low levels of personal and treatment control over illness and have a high perception of symptoms.

Morbidades autorreferidas por usuários de espaços comunitários de atividade física

Objetivo: analisar as morbidades autorreferidas relacionadas com as condições sociodemográficas dos usuários de espaços comunitários de atividade física.Materiais e métodos: estudo transversal, com abordagem quantitativa, realizado com 433 usuários do Sistema Único de Saúde, na macrorregião Cariri, Ceará, Brasil. A coleta ocorreu por meio de formulário estruturado a partir do modelo de questionário da Vigilância de Fatores de Risco e Proteção para Doenças Crônicas por Inquérito Telefônico, operacionalizada pelo Ministério da Saúde do Brasil.Resultados: a média de idade dos participantes do estudo foi de 42,92 anos (DP ± 17,4); a de renda familiar foi de R$ 1.486,30 (DP ± 1.015,0). Verificou-se predomínio do sexo feminino associado à maior prevalência de hipertensão (p = 0,001) e de dislipidemia (p = 0,003). A idade mais elevada relacionou-se aos diagnósticos médicos de hipertensão (53,85 anos, DP ± 15,64), dislipidemia (59,54 anos, DP ± 15,25) e diabetes (52,42 anos, DP ± 16,66).Conclusão: a análise das características sociais e econômicas permitiu verificar a associação de morbidades como hipertensão, diabetes e dislipidemia com o sexo, a idade, a renda e a escolaridade; esses fatores são causais para o desenvolvimento das doenças crônicas não transmissíveis.

Dietary patterns and their associations with gestational weight gain in the United Arab Emirates: results from the MISC cohort

Background

Suboptimum weight gain during pregnancy may carry long term health consequences for the infant or mother. Nutritional imbalances are well recognized as a determinant of gestational weight gain. Few studies examined the effect of dietary patterns on gestational weight gain, especially in countries undergoing nutrition transition, such as the United Arab Emirates.

Objectives

To characterize dietary patterns among pregnant women living in the UAE and examine their associations with gestational weight gain and gestational weight rate.

Methodology

Data were drawn from the Mother-Infant Study Cohort, a two-year prospective cohort study of pregnant women living in the United Arab Emirates, recruited during their third trimester (n = 242). Weight gain during pregnancy was calculated using data from medical records. The Institute of Medicine’s recommendations were used to categorize gestational weight gain and gestational weight gain rate into insufficient, adequate, and excessive. During face-to-face interviews, dietary intake was assessed using an 89-item culture-specific semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire that referred to usual intake during pregnancy. Dietary patterns were derived by principal component analysis. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of derived dietary patterns with gestational weight gain/gestational weight gain rate.

Results

Two dietary patterns were derived, a “Diverse” and a “Western” pattern. The “Diverse” pattern was characterized by higher intake of fruits, vegetables, mixed dishes while the “Western” pattern consisted of sweets and fast food. The “Western” pattern was associated with excessive gestational weight gain (OR:4.04,95% CI:1.07–15.24) and gestational weight gain rate (OR: 4.38, 95% CI:1.28–15.03) while the “Diverse” pattern decreased the risk of inadequate gestational weight gain (OR:0.24, 95% CI:0.06–0.97) and gestational weight gain rate (OR:0.28, 95% CI:0.09–0.90).

Conclusion

The findings of this study showed that adherence to a “Diverse” pattern reduced the risk of insufficient gestational weight gain/gestational weight gain rate, while higher consumption of the “Western” pattern increased the risk of excessive gestational weight gain/gestational weight gain rate. In view of the established consequences of gestational weight gain on the health of the mother and child, there is a critical need for health policies and interventions to promote a healthy lifestyle eating through a life course approach.

Cardiometabolic-Based Chronic Disease, Adiposity and Dysglycemia Drivers: JACC State-of-the-Art Review

A new cardiometabolic-based chronic disease (CMBCD) model is presented that provides a basis for early and sustainable, evidence-based therapeutic targeting to promote cardiometabolic health and mitigate the development and ravages of cardiovascular disease. In the first part of this JACC State-of-the-Art Review, a framework is presented for CMBCD, focusing on 3 primary drivers (genetics, environment, and behavior) and 2 metabolic drivers (adiposity and dysglycemia) with applications to 3 cardiovascular endpoints (coronary heart disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation). Specific mechanistic pathways are presented configuring early primary drivers with subsequent adiposity, insulin resistance, β-cell dysfunction, and metabolic syndrome, leading to cardiovascular disease. The context for building this CMBCD model is to expose actionable targets for prevention to achieve optimal cardiovascular outcomes. The tactical implementation of this CMBCD model is the subject of second part of this JACC State-of-the-Art Review.

Cardiometabolic-Based Chronic Disease, Adiposity and Dysglycemia Drivers: JACC State-of-the-Art Review

A new cardiometabolic-based chronic disease (CMBCD) model is presented that provides a basis for early and sustainable, evidence-based therapeutic targeting to promote cardiometabolic health and mitigate the development and ravages of cardiovascular disease. In the first part of this JACC State-of-the-Art Review, a framework is presented for CMBCD, focusing on 3 primary drivers (genetics, environment, and behavior) and 2 metabolic drivers (adiposity and dysglycemia) with applications to 3 cardiovascular endpoints (coronary heart disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation). Specific mechanistic pathways are presented configuring early primary drivers with subsequent adiposity, insulin resistance, β-cell dysfunction, and metabolic syndrome, leading to cardiovascular disease. The context for building this CMBCD model is to expose actionable targets for prevention to achieve optimal cardiovascular outcomes. The tactical implementation of this CMBCD model is the subject of second part of this JACC State-of-the-Art Review.

Trends in cardiometabolic risk factors in the Americas between 1980 and 2014: a pooled analysis of population-based surveys

BACKGROUND

Describing the prevalence and trends of cardiometabolic risk factors that are associated with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is crucial for monitoring progress, planning prevention, and providing evidence to support policy efforts. We aimed to analyse the transition in body-mass index (BMI), obesity, blood pressure, raised blood pressure, and diabetes in the Americas, between 1980 and 2014.

METHODS

We did a pooled analysis of population-based studies with data on anthropometric measurements, biomarkers for diabetes, and blood pressure from adults aged 18 years or older. A Bayesian model was used to estimate trends in BMI, raised blood pressure (systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg), and diabetes (fasting plasma glucose ≥7·0 mmol/L, history of diabetes, or diabetes treatment) from 1980 to 2014, in 37 countries and six subregions of the Americas.

FINDINGS

389 population-based surveys from the Americas were available. Comparing prevalence estimates from 2014 with those of 1980, in the non-English speaking Caribbean subregion, the prevalence of obesity increased from 3·9% (95% CI 2·2-6·3) in 1980, to 18·6% (14·3-23·3) in 2014, in men; and from 12·2% (8·2-17·0) in 1980, to 30·5% (25·7-35·5) in 2014, in women. The English-speaking Caribbean subregion had the largest increase in the prevalence of diabetes, from 5·2% (2·1-10·4) in men and 6·4% (2·6-10·4) in women in 1980, to 11·1% (6·4-17·3) in men and 13·6% (8·2-21·0) in women in 2014). Conversely, the prevalence of raised blood pressure has decreased in all subregions; the largest decrease was found in North America from 27·6% (22·3-33·2) in men and 19·9% (15·8-24·4) in women in 1980, to 15·5% (11·1-20·9) in men and 10·7% (7·7-14·5) in women in 2014.

INTERPRETATION

Despite the generally high prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors across the Americas, estimates also showed a high level of heterogeneity in the transition between countries. The increasing prevalence of obesity and diabetes observed over time requires appropriate measures to deal with these public health challenges. Our results support a diversification of health interventions across subregions and countries.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Understanding the rise of cardiometabolic diseases in low- and middle-income countries

Increases in the prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), particularly cardiometabolic diseases such as cardiovascular disease, stroke and diabetes, and their major risk factors have not been uniform across settings: for example, cardiovascular disease mortality has declined over recent decades in high-income countries but increased in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The factors contributing to this rise are varied and are influenced by environmental, social, political and commercial determinants of health, among other factors. This Review focuses on understanding the rise of cardiometabolic diseases in LMICs, with particular emphasis on obesity and its drivers, together with broader environmental and macro determinants of health, as well as LMIC-based responses to counteract cardiometabolic diseases.

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol target attainment in patients with stable or acute coronary heart disease in the Asia-Pacific region: results from the Dyslipidemia International Study II

BACKGROUND

As mortality due to cardiovascular disease increases throughout the world, accurate data on risk factors such as hyperlipidemia are required. This is lacking in the Asia-Pacific region.

DESIGN

The observational Dyslipidemia International Study (DYSIS) II was established to quantify the extent of hyperlipidemia in adults with acute and stable coronary heart disease globally.

METHODS

Patients with stable coronary heart disease or hospitalised with an acute coronary syndrome were enrolled across nine Asia-Pacific countries from July 2013 to October 2014. Lipid-lowering therapy and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol target attainment (<70 mg/dL) were assessed. The acute coronary syndrome cohort was followed up 4 months post-discharge.

RESULTS

Of the 4592 patients enrolled, 2794 had stable coronary heart disease and 1798 were admitted with an acute coronary syndrome. In the coronary heart disease cohort, the mean low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level was 86.9 mg/dL, with 91.7% using lipid-lowering therapy and 31% achieving low-density lipoprotein cholesterol of less than 70 mg/dL. In the acute coronary syndrome cohort at admission, the corresponding values were 103.2 mg/dL, 63.4% and 23.0%, respectively. Target attainment was significantly higher in lipid-lowering therapy-treated than non-treated patients in each cohort (32.6% vs. 12.9% and 31.1% vs. 9.0%, respectively). Mean atorvastatin-equivalent dosages were low (20 ± 15 and 22 ± 18 mg/day, respectively), with little use of non-statin adjuvants (13.0% and 6.8%, respectively). Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol target attainment had improved by follow-up for the acute coronary syndrome patients, but remained low (41.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Many patients in Asia at very high risk of recurrent cardiovascular events had a low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level above the recommended target. Although lipid-lowering therapy was common, it was not used to its full potential.

State of the Heart: An Overview of the Disease Burden of Cardiovascular Disease from an Epidemiologic Perspective

Cardiovascular diseases are prevalent worldwide and have significant impact on morbidity, mortality, and overall health care costs. Common risk factors include obesity, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, and smoking. Both modifiable and nonmodifiable risks should be accounted for when evaluating and managing patients with cardiovascular diseases. The complex nature of cardiovascular disease is not fully understood. Therefore, primary care physicians must balance what is known, what is suspected, and each patient's individual preferences to create an optimal treatment plan.

A multidisciplinary approach to prevention

Cardiovascular disease accounts for 17,500 deaths globally, representing nearly half of all non-communicable disease deaths. The World Health Organization has set nine lifestyle, risk factor and medicines targets to achieve by 2025 with the aim of reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 25%. In order to succeed in this, we need to equip our global health professional workforce with the skills to support patients and their families with making lifestyle changes and being in concordance with cardioprotective medication regimes at every opportunity. Success depends on collegiate working through effective interdisciplinary team-based care characterised by shared goals, clear roles, mutual trust, effective communication and measurable processes and outcomes, with the patient and family at the centre of care. Nurses are the largest sector of the health professional workforce and their role in prevention should be optimised. Nurse coordinated care is proven to be effective, especially where they work in an interdisciplinary way with other health professionals such as doctors, pharmacists and psychologists, who provide equally important expertise for supporting holistic care. Successful care models are those that comprehensively target all adverse lifestyles and risk factors that are responsible for the development of cardiovascular disease. These characteristics should be reflected in the standards and core components of prevention and rehabilitation programmes.

Temporal trend in dementia incidence since 2002 and projections for prevalence in England and Wales to 2040: modelling study

Objective To forecast dementia prevalence with a dynamic modelling approach that integrates calendar trends in dementia incidence with those for mortality and cardiovascular disease.Design Modelling study.Setting General adult population of England and Wales.Participants The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) is a representative panel study with six waves of data across 2002-13. Men and women aged 50 or more years, selected randomly, and their cohabiting partners were recruited to the first wave of ELSA (2002-03). 11392 adults participated (response rate 67%). To maintain representativeness, refreshment participants were recruited to the study at subsequent waves. The total analytical sample constituted 17 906 people. Constant objective criteria based on cognitive and functional impairment were used to ascertain dementia cases at each wave.Main outcome measures To estimate calendar trends in dementia incidence, correcting for bias due to loss to follow-up of study participants, a joint model of longitudinal and time-to-event data was fitted to ELSA data. To forecast future dementia prevalence, the probabilistic Markov model IMPACT-BAM (IMPACT-Better Ageing Model) was developed. IMPACT-BAM models transitions of the population aged 35 or more years through states of cardiovascular disease, cognitive and functional impairment, and dementia, to death. It enables prediction of dementia prevalence while accounting for the growing pool of susceptible people as a result of increased life expectancy and the competing effects due to changes in mortality, and incidence of cardiovascular disease.Results In ELSA, dementia incidence was estimated at 14.3 per 1000 person years in men and 17.0/1000 person years in women aged 50 or more in 2010. Dementia incidence declined at a relative rate of 2.7% (95% confidence interval 2.4% to 2.9%) for each year during 2002-13. Using IMPACT-BAM, we estimated there were approximately 767 000 (95% uncertainty interval 735 000 to 797 000) people with dementia in England and Wales in 2016. Despite the decrease in incidence and age specific prevalence, the number of people with dementia is projected to increase to 872 000, 1 092 000, and 1 205 000 in 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively. A sensitivity analysis without the incidence decline gave a much larger projected growth, of more than 1.9 million people with dementia in 2040.Conclusions Age specific dementia incidence is declining. The number of people with dementia in England and Wales is likely to increase by 57% from 2016 to 2040. This increase is mainly driven by improved life expectancy.