Development and Performance of an Algorithm to Estimate the Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score From a National Electronic Healthcare Database

The Association Between Homelessness and Key Liver-Related Outcomes in Veterans With Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

Homelessness adversely affects patient outcomes in broad cohort studies; however, its impact on key liver-related outcomes in patients with cirrhosis is understudied. We aimed to address this knowledge gap using data from the Veterans Health Administration, a cohort disproportionately affected by homelessness.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of the Veterans Health Administration patients with incident cirrhosis diagnosis between January 2008 and February 2022. Homeless status was classified at baseline and as time-updating variable during follow-up. Inverse probability treatment weighted Cox regression was performed to evaluate the association between homelessness and outcomes of all-cause mortality, cirrhosis decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma.

RESULTS

A total of 117,698 patients were included in the cohort, of whom 14,243 (12.1%) were homeless at baseline. In inverse probability treatment weighted Cox regression, homelessness was associated with a 24% higher hazard of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-1.26, P < 0.001). However, in competing risk regression models, homelessness was associated with a reduced subhazard of decompensation (subhazard ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.84-0.88, P < 0.001) and hepatocellular carcinoma (subhazard ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.83-0.89, P < 0.001). In cause-specific mortality analysis, homeless patients had significantly increased non-liver-related and liver-related mortality; however, the magnitude of effect size was greater for non-liver-related mortality (csHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.35-1.40, P < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

Homelessness in veterans with cirrhosis is associated with increased all-cause mortality; however, this is likely mediated primarily through non-liver-related factors. Future studies are needed to explore drivers of mortality and improve mitigation strategies in these patients.

Rates, patterns, and predictors of specialty palliative care consultation among patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background & Aims

There is growing acceptance that principles of palliative care should be integrated into the management of serious illnesses affecting the liver, such as acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, rates, patterns, and predictors of specialty palliative care consultation among patients with ACLF have not been well-described.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalized with ACLF between 1/1/2008 and 12/31/2018 using the VOCAL cohort. Patients were followed until 6/2021. We used mixed-effects regression analyses to identify significant patient and facility factors associated with palliative care consultation. We examined timing of consultation, the influence of ACLF characteristics, and facility-level variation on receipt of palliative care consultation.

Results

We identified 21,987 patients hospitalized with ACLF, of whom 30.5% received specialty palliative care consultation. Higher ACLF grade (ACLF-2 [odds ratio (OR) 1.82, 95% CI 1.67-1.99], ACLF-3 [OR 3.06, 95% CI 2.76-3.40]), prior specialty palliative care consultation (OR 2.62, 95% CI 2.36-2.91), and hepatocellular carcinoma (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.89-2.33) were associated with consultation. Consultation occurred latest and closest to the time of death for patients with ACLF-3 compared to ACLF-1 and ACLF-2. Significant facility-level variation in consultation persisted among patients with ACLF-3, despite adjusting for multiple patient and facility factors.

Conclusion

In this large cohort of hospitalized patients with ACLF, specialty palliative care consultation was rare, more common in patients with higher grade ACLF, and tended to occur closer to the time of death for the sickest patients. Greater attention should be placed on earlier integration of palliative care during acute hospitalizations in patients with ACLF.

Impact and implications

Though palliative care consultation is recommended for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, there is no data demonstrating how often this occurs during hospitalizations, on a population level. We found that consultation occurs in only 30.5% of patients and occurs later for patients with grade 3 acute-on-chronic liver failure. Our data should provoke clinicians to urgently consider quality improvement efforts to integrate palliative care into the management of these seriously ill patients.

Incorporation of quantitative imaging data using artificial intelligence improves risk prediction in veterans with liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Utilization of electronic health records data to derive predictive indexes such as the electronic Child-Turcotte-Pugh (eCTP) Score can have significant utility in health care delivery. Within the records, CT scans contain phenotypic data which have significant prognostic value. However, data extractions have not traditionally been applied to imaging data. In this study, we used artificial intelligence to automate biomarker extraction from CT scans and examined the value of these features in improving risk prediction in patients with liver disease.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Using a regional liver disease cohort from the Veterans Health System, we retrieved administrative, laboratory, and clinical data for Veterans who had CT scans performed for any clinical indication between 2008 and 2014. Imaging biomarkers were automatically derived using the analytic morphomics platform. In all, 4614 patients were included. We found that the eCTP Score had a Concordance index of 0.64 for the prediction of overall mortality while the imaging-based model alone or with eCTP Score performed significantly better [Concordance index of 0.72 and 0.73 ( p <0.001)]. For the subset of patients without hepatic decompensation at baseline (n=4452), the Concordance index for predicting future decompensation was 0.67, 0.79, and 0.80 for eCTP Score, imaging alone, or combined, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This proof of concept demonstrates that the potential of utilizing automated extraction of imaging features within CT scans either alone or in conjunction with classic health data can improve risk prediction in patients with chronic liver disease.

Predictors of 30-day mortality in patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy on admission to the emergency department

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to compare the laboratory findings and disease severity scores of patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in the emergency department (ED) to predict 30-day mortality.

METHOD

The patients over 18 years old and diagnosed HE in the ED of a tertiary hospital were included in the study. Demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, predisposing causes and outcomes of the patients included in the study were recorded in the data form. Severity of liver disease was assessed by Child Pugh Score (CPS), End-stage liver disease model (MELD), MELD-Na and MELD-Lactate scores.

RESULTS

Two hundred fifty-four patients diagnosed with HE were included in the study. 59.1% of the patients were male. The mean age of the patients was 65.2 ± 12.6 years. The mortality rate of the patients was 47.2%. When the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, which determines the predictive properties of laboratory parameters and disease severity scores, was examined, the area under curve value of the MELD-Lactate score (0.858 95% CI 0.812-0.904, P  < 0.001) was the highest. Binary logistic regression analysis for the estimation of patients' 30-day mortality showed that CPS and MELD-Lactate scores and blood ammonia and B-type natriuretic peptide levels were independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

According to the study data, MELD-Lactate and BNP levels in patients diagnosed with HE in the ED may help the clinician in the prediction of 30-day mortality in the early period.

HCC is associated with diabetes and longitudinal blood glucose control in a national cohort with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is associated with HCC; however, the impact of longitudinal blood glucose (BG) control on HCC risk in cirrhosis is not well known. We investigated this knowledge gap in a cohort of United States Veterans with cirrhosis from 2015 to 2021.

METHODS

We used repeated hemoglobin A1c measurements to categorize follow-up time according to BG control (defined as hemoglobin A1c < 7%) state over time: uncontrolled, nonsustained control (≤2 y), or sustained control (>2 y). We performed a sensitivity analysis using hemoglobin A1c < 8% to define BG control. We used Fine and Gray Cox proportional hazards regression with death and transplant as competing events to compare rates of incident HCC.

RESULTS

Our study included 81,907 individuals, 56.2% of whom had diabetes at baseline. There were 8,002 incident HCCs. The rate of HCC was 18% higher in diabetes (95% CI: 13% - 24%), and the relative increase in the rate of HCC varied by etiology of cirrhosis from nonsignificant (HCV) to an increase of 120% (HBV). Uncontrolled and nonsustained BG control was associated with 1.80 (95% CI: 1.70-1.91) and 2.34 (95% CI: 2.21-2.48) times the rate of HCC compared to sustained BG control, respectively. Using Hgb A1c < 8% to define BG control, HCC rates in uncontrolled and nonsustained BG control were 2.43 (2.28-2.58) and 2.23 (2.11-2.36) times that observed in sustained BG control.

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between diabetes and HCC in cirrhosis vary according to the longitudinal BG control state. Inadequate BG control is consistently associated with a higher risk of HCC, and long-term BG control should be considered in comprehensive cirrhosis care.

Risk Stratification Model for Hepatocellular Cancer in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The available risk stratification indices for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) have limited applicability. We developed and externally validated an HCC risk stratification index in U.S. cohorts of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used data from 2 prospective U.S. cohorts to develop the risk index. Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from 8 centers and followed until development of HCC, death, or December 31, 2021. We identified an optimal set of predictors with the highest discriminatory ability (C-index) for HCC. The predictors were refit using competing risk regression and its predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). External validation was performed in a cohort of 21,550 patients with cirrhosis seen in the U.S Veterans Affairs system between 2018 and 2019 with follow-up through 2021.

RESULTS

We developed the model in 2431 patients (mean age 60 years, 31% women, 24% cured hepatitis C, 16% alcoholic liver disease, and 29% nonalcoholic fatty liver disease). The selected model had a C-index of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.81), and the predictors were age, sex, smoking, alcohol use, body mass index, etiology, α-fetoprotein, albumin, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet levels. The AUROCs were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.85) at 1 year and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) at 2 years, and the model was well calibrated. In the external validation cohort, the AUROC at 2 years was 0.70 with excellent calibration.

CONCLUSION

The risk index, including objective and routinely available risk factors, can differentiate patients with cirrhosis who will develop HCC and help guide discussions regarding HCC surveillance and prevention. Future studies are needed for additional external validation and refinement of risk stratification.

A Validated Composite Score Demonstrates Potential Superiority to MELD-Based Systems in Predicting Short-Term Survival in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis-A Preliminary Study

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a severe complication in cirrhosis patients with ascites, leading to high mortality rates if not promptly treated. However, specific prediction models for SBP are lacking.

AIMS

This study aimed to compare commonly used cirrhotic prediction models (CTP score, MELD, MELD-Na, iMELD, and MELD 3.0) for short-term mortality prediction and develop a novel model to improve mortality prediction.

METHODS

Patients with the first episode of SBP were included. Prognostic values for mortality were assessed using AUROC analysis. A novel prediction model was developed and validated.

RESULTS

In total, 327 SBP patients were analyzed, with HBV infection as the main etiologies. MELD 3.0 demonstrated the highest AUROC among the traditional models. The novel model, incorporating HRS, exhibited superior predictive accuracy for in-hospital in all patients and 3-month mortality in HBV-cirrhosis, with AUROC values of 0.827 and 0.813 respectively, surpassing 0.8.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD 3.0 score outperformed the CTP score and showed a non-significant improvement compared to other MELD-based scores, while the novel SBP model demonstrated impressive accuracy. Internal validation and an HBV-related cirrhosis subgroup sensitivity analysis supported these findings, highlighting the need for a specific prognostic model for SBP and the importance of preventing HRS development to improve SBP prognosis.

Association between statin exposure and short-term mortality in patients with high-grade acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background & Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries a high short-term mortality for patients with cirrhosis. Prior literature suggests that statin exposure may reduce the likelihood of ACLF events. However, it is unclear if statin exposure is associated with ACLF-related mortality. This study sought to determine the association between statin use and short-term mortality among patients hospitalised with ACLF.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients diagnosed with cirrhosis between 2008 and 2021 and hospitalised with high-grade (2 or 3) ACLF. Patients were stratified into those with and without continuous statin exposure for at least 90 days prior to hospitalisation. Multivariable logistic regression models were created to determine the adjusted association between statin exposure and 28-day and 90-day mortality. Categorical statin dose exposure, converted to simvastatin equivalents, was also explored.

Results

A total of 11,731 patients with cirrhosis hospitalised with Grade 2 or 3 ACLF were included in the analytic cohort, 26% of whom had statin exposure. In adjusted logistic regression models, statin use was associated with 18% lower odds of ACLF-related 28-day mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.82, 95% CI 0.73-0.93, p = 0.001) and 24% lower odds of 90-day mortality (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.68-0.86, p <0.001). Increasing statin dose exposure was also associated with further reductions in 90-day mortality (e.g. OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.70-0.93 for 10-40 mg vs. 0 mg and OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.60-0.87 for 80 mg vs. 0 mg, p <0.001).

Conclusions

In this large, retrospective cohort study, statin exposure before high-grade ACLF hospitalisation was associated with reduced odds of 28-day and 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis. A statin dose-dependent reduction in 90-day ACLF-related mortality was also observed.

Impact and Implications

Statins have been identified as a class of medications with potential beneficial effects for patients with cirrhosis. In this large, retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis who seek care at the Veterans Health Administration, statin use was associated with a decrease in short term (28-day and 90-day) mortality as a result of acute-on-chronic liver failure. Future prospective studies are needed to further clarify the relative safety and efficacy of statin therapy in reducing morbidity and mortality associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with cirrhosis.

Ursodeoxycholic acid is associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infection and reduced severity of COVID-19 in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Studies have demonstrated that reducing farnesoid X receptor activity with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) downregulates angiotensin-converting enzyme in human lung, intestinal and cholangiocytes organoids in vitro, in human lungs and livers perfused ex situ, reducing internalization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) into the host cell. This offers a potential novel target against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The objective of our study was to compare the association between UDCA exposure and SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as varying severities of COVID-19, in a large national cohort of participants with cirrhosis.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study among participants with cirrhosis in the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver cohort, we compared participants with exposure to UDCA, with a propensity score (PS) matched group of participants without UDCA exposure, matched for clinical characteristics, and vaccination status. The outcomes included SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic, at least moderate, severe, or critical COVID-19, and COVID-19-related death.

RESULTS

We compared 1607 participants with cirrhosis who were on UDCA, with 1607 PS-matched controls. On multivariable logistic regression, UDCA exposure was associated with reduced odds of developing SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.41-0.71, p < 0.0001). Among patients who developed COVID-19, UDCA use was associated with reduced disease severity, including symptomatic COVID-19 (aOR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.73, p < 0.0001), at least moderate COVID-19 (aOR 0.51, 95% CI 0.32-0.81, p = 0.005), and severe or critical COVID-19 (aOR 0.48, 95% CI 0.25-0.94, p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

In participants with cirrhosis, UDCA exposure was associated with both a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 infection, and reduction in symptomatic, at least moderate, and severe/critical COVID-19.

Medications for alcohol use disorder improve survival in patients with hazardous drinking and alcohol-associated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Medications for alcohol use disorder (MAUD) are highly effective in achieving and maintaining abstinence in patients with alcohol use disorder (AUD). Our aim was to evaluate the effect of MAUD on all-cause mortality in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and active alcohol use.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and high-risk alcohol use disorder in the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) database. Propensity score matching for exposure to MAUD (acamprosate or naltrexone) within a year after cirrhosis diagnosis was performed to account for potential confounders, and the association between MAUD and all-cause mortality was subsequently evaluated using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 9131 patients were included, of whom 886 (9.7%) were exposed to MAUD (naltrexone: 520, acamprosate: 307, both medications: 59). The duration of MAUD exposure was >3 months in 345 patients (39%). The strongest positive predictor of MAUD prescription was an inpatient diagnosis code for AUD, followed by a concurrent diagnosis of depression; the strongest negative predictor was a history of cirrhosis decompensation. After propensity score matching (866 patients in each group) with excellent covariate balance (absolute standardized mean differences <0.1), MAUD exposure was associated with improved survival, with an HR of 0.80 relative to no MAUD exposure (95% CI: 0.67-0.97, p = 0.024).

CONCLUSION

MAUD are underutilized in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis with high-risk alcohol use behavior but are associated with improved survival after adjustment for confounders such as the severity of liver disease, age, and engagement in the healthcare system.

Type of Infection Is Associated with Prognosis in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A National Veterans Health Administration Study

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome in patients with cirrhosis with high short-term mortality. Infection is a frequent precipitant of ACLF; however, it is unclear if prognosis varies by difference infectious sources. To address this knowledge gap, we utilized a large national database of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration between 2008 and 2016. First ACLF hospitalizations were identified and infections were classified using validated algorithms, categorized as bacteremia, fungal, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), pyelonephritis/urinary tract infection, or skin and soft tissue/musculoskeletal infection (SST/MSK). Inverse probability treatment weighing for infection-associated ACLF followed by multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between infection type and 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total 22,589 ACLF hospitalizations were included, 3998 (17.7%) of which had ACLF grade 3. Infection was associated with 12,405 (54.9%) of ACLF hospitalizations. In regression models, SBP was associated with a 1.79-fold increased odds of 90-day mortality vs. no infection (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.58-2.02, p < 0.001), whereas SST/MSK infections had a lower relative odds of mortality (odds ratio 0.48, 95% CI 0.42-0.53, p < 0.001). There was a significant interaction between infection category and ACLF grade on the outcome of 90-day mortality (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of infection on short-term mortality in ACLF varies depending on the source of infection. This has relevance for ACLF prognostication and challenges previous notions that bacterial infection invariably worsens prognosis among all patients with ACLF.

Patterns of Care Utilization and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance: Tracking Care Across the Pandemic

INTRODUCTION

We studied longitudinal trends in mortality, outpatient, and inpatient care for cirrhosis in a national cohort in the first 2 years of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic. We evaluated trends in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance and factors associated with completion.

METHODS

Within the national cirrhosis cohort in the Veterans Administration from 2020 to 2021, we captured mortality, outpatient primary care provider, gastroenterology/hepatology (GI/HEP) visits, and hospitalizations. HCC surveillance was computed as percentage of time up to date with surveillance every 6 months (PTUDS). Multivariable models for PTUDS were adjusted for patient demographics, clinical factors, and facility-level variables.

RESULTS

The total cohort was 68,073; 28,678 were eligible for HCC surveillance. Outpatient primary care provider and GI/HEP appointment rates initially dropped from 30% to 7% with a rebound 1 year into the pandemic and steady subsequent use. Telemedicine monthly visit rates rose from less than 10% to a peak of 20% with a steady gradual decline. Nearly 70% of Veterans were up to date with HCC surveillance before the pandemic with an early pandemic nadir of approximately 50% and 60% PTUDS 2 years into the pandemic. In adjusted models, use of a population-based cirrhosis dashboard (β 8.5, 95% CI 6.9-10.2) and GI/HEP visits both in-person (β 3.2, 95% CI 2.9-3.6) and telemedicine (β 2.1, 95% CI 1.9-2.4) were associated with a higher PTUDS.

DISCUSSION

Outpatient utilization and HCC surveillance rates have rebounded but remain below at baseline. Population-based approaches and specialty care for cirrhosis were associated with a higher completion of HCC surveillance.

Nonselective beta blockers, hepatic decompensation, and mortality in cirrhosis: A national cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Little is known about the effectiveness of nonselective beta blockers (NSBBs) in preventing hepatic decompensation in routine clinical settings. We investigated whether NSBBs are associated with hepatic decompensation or liver-related mortality in a national cohort of veterans with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) A cirrhosis with no prior decompensations.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

In an active comparator, new user (ACNU) design, we created a cohort of new users of carvedilol ( n = 123) versus new users of selective beta blockers (SBBs) ( n = 561) and followed patients for up to 3 years. An inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) approach balanced demographic and clinical confounders. The primary analysis simulated intention-to-treat ("pseudo-ITT") with IPTW-adjusted Cox models; secondary analyses were pseudo-as-treated, and both were adjusted for baseline and time-updating drug confounders. Subgroup analyses evaluated NSBB effects by HCV viremia status, CTP class, platelet count, alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) etiology, and age. In pseudo-ITT analyses of carvedilol versus SBBs, carvedilol was associated with a lower hazard of any hepatic decompensation (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.42-0.83) and the composite outcome of hepatic decompensation/liver-related mortality (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.41-0.76). Results were similar in pseudo-as-treated analyses (hepatic decompensation: HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.33-0.94; composite outcome: HR 0.62, 95% 0.38-1.01). In subgroup analyses, carvedilol was associated with lower hazard of primary outcomes in the absence of HCV viremia, higher CTP class and platelet count, younger age, and ALD etiology.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an ongoing need to noninvasively identify patients who may benefit from NSBBs for the prevention of hepatic decompensation.

Comparison of infection-induced and vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 can be infection or vaccine-induced. Cirrhosis is associated with vaccine hyporesponsiveness, but whether there is decreased immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated patients with cirrhosis is unknown.The objective of our study was to compare infection-induced and vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 among patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study among US Veterans with cirrhosis between November 27, 2020, and November 16, 2021, comparing a vaccine-induced immunity group, defined as participants without a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection but fully vaccinated with two doses of an mRNA vaccine, and infection-associated immunity group, defined as unvaccinated participants who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Both groups were propensity score matched for observed characteristics, including location, and the date of the immunity acquiring event, to control for the community prevalence of COVID-19 variants. The outcome was a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR more than 60 days after previous infection in the infection-induced, or after full vaccination in the vaccine-induced immunity group.

RESULTS

We compared 634 participants in the infection-induced immunity group with 27,131 participants in the vaccine-induced immunity group using inverse propensity of treatment weighting. Vaccine-induced immunity was associated with a reduced odds of developing SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.16-0.20, p < 0.0001). On multivariable logistic regression, vaccine-induced immunity was associated with reduced odds of developing symptomatic (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.36; 95% CI, 0.33-0.41, p < 0.0001), moderate/severe/critical (aOR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.22-0.31, p < 0.0001), and severe or critical COVID-19 (aOR, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.16-0.26, p < 0.001), compared with infection-induced immunity.

CONCLUSIONS

In participants with cirrhosis, vaccine-induced immunity is associated with reduced risk of developing COVID-19, compared with infection-induced immunity.

Third dose of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine appears to overcome vaccine hyporesponsiveness in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Cirrhosis is associated with immune dysregulation and hyporesponsiveness to several vaccines including those against COVID-19. Our aim was to compare outcomes between patients with cirrhosis who received 3 doses of either the Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA or Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccines to a propensity-matched control group of patients at similar risk of infection who received 2 doses.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis who received 2 or 3 doses of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine at the Veterans Health Administration. Participants who received 3 doses of the vaccine (n = 13,041) were propensity score matched with 13,041 controls who received 2 doses, and studied between July 18, 2021 and February 11, 2022, when B.1.617.2 (delta) and B.1.1.529 (omicron) were the predominant variants. Outcomes were aggregated as all cases with COVID-19, symptomatic COVD-19, with at least moderate COVID-19, or severe or critical COVID-19.

RESULTS

Receipt of the third dose of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine was associated with an 80.7% reduction in COVID-19 (95% CI 39.2-89.1, p <0.001), an 80.4% reduction in symptomatic COVID-19, an 80% reduction in moderate, severe or critical COVID-19, (95% CI 34.5-87.6%, p = 0.005), a 100% reduction in severe or critical COVID-19 (95% CI 99.2-100.0, p = 0.01), and a 100% reduction in COVID-19-related death (95% CI 99.8-100.0, p = 0.007). The magnitude of reduction in COVID-19 was greater with the third dose of BNT 162b2 than mRNA-1273 and among participants with compensated rather than decompensated cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Administration of a third dose of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine was associated with a more significant reduction in COVID-19 in patients with cirrhosis than in the general population, suggesting that the third dose can overcome vaccine hyporesponsiveness in this population.

LAY SUMMARY

Cirrhosis is associated with decreased responsiveness to several vaccines, including those against COVID-19. In this study of 26,082 participants with cirrhosis during the delta and omicron surge, receipt of the third dose of the vaccine was associated with an 80% reduction in COVID-19, a 100% reduction in severe/critical COVID-19, and a 100% reduction in COVID-19-related death. These findings support the importance of a third dose of mRNA vaccine among patients with cirrhosis.

External Validation of the FIPS Score for Post-TIPS Mortality in a National Veterans Affairs Cohort

BACKGROUND

The Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival (FIPS) score was recently demonstrated to improve prediction of post-TIPS mortality relative to existing standards. As this score was derived from a German cohort over an extended time period, it is unclear if performance will translate well to other settings. This study aimed to externally validate the FIPS score in a large Veterans Affairs (VA) cohort over two separate eras of TIPS-related care.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS placement in the VA from 2008 to 2020. Cox regression models for post-TIPS survival were constructed using FIPS, MELD, MELD-Na, or CTP scores as predictors. Discrimination (Harrell's C) and calibration (joint tests of calibration curve slope and intercept) were evaluated for each score. A stratified analysis was performed for time periods between 2008-2013 and 2014-2020.

RESULTS

The cohort of 1,274 patients was 97.3% male with mean age 60.9 years and mean MELD-Na 14. The FIPS score demonstrated the highest overall discrimination versus MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP (0.634 vs. 0.585, 0.626, 0.612, respectively). However, in the modern treatment era (2014-2020), the FIPS score performed similarly to MELD-Na. Additionally, the FIPS score demonstrated poor calibration at one-month and six-month post-TIPS timepoints (joint p = 0.04 and 0.004, respectively). MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP were well-calibrated at each timepoint (each joint p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The FIPS score performed similarly to MELD-Na in the modern TIPS treatment era and demonstrated regions of poor calibration. Future models derived with contemporary data may improve prediction of post-TIPS mortality.

Algorithms to Identify Alcoholic Hepatitis Hospitalizations in Patients with Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a clinically diagnosed syndrome with high short-term mortality for which liver transplantation may be curative. A lack of validated algorithms to identify AH hospitalizations has hindered clinical epidemiology research.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis using Veterans Health Administration (VHA) data from 2008 to 2015. We randomly sampled hospitalizations based upon abnormal liver tests and administrative codes for acute hepatitis or alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). Hospitalizations were manually adjudicated for AH per society guidelines. A priori algorithms were evaluated to compute positive predicted value (PPV) and positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and were tested in an external University of Pennsylvania Health System (UPHS) cohort.

RESULTS

Of 368 hospitalizations, 142 (38.6%) were adjudicated as AH. AH patients were younger (55 vs. 58 years, p < 0.001), less likely to have prior cirrhosis decompensation (57% vs. 73.9%, p < 0.001), and had higher AST-to-ALT ratios (median 2.9 vs. 1.9 mg/dL, p < 0.001) and higher bilirubin levels (median 2.9 vs. 1.9 mg/dL, p < 0.001). Algorithms combining clinical laboratory criteria (AST > 85 U/L but < 450 U/L, AST-to-ALT ratio > 2, total bilirubin > 5 mg/dL) and administrative coding criteria yielded the highest PPV (96.4%, 95% CI 87.7-99.6) and the highest LR+ (43.0, 95% CI 10.6-173.5). Several algorithms demonstrated 100% PPV for definite AH in the UPHS external cohort.

CONCLUSION

We have identified algorithms for AH hospitalizations with excellent PPV and LR+. These high-specificity algorithms may be used in VHA datasets to identify patients with high likelihood of AH, but should not be used to study AH incidence.

Major Shifts in Outpatient Cirrhosis Care Delivery Attributable to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A National Cohort Study

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted health care delivery in the United States, with increased reliance on telemedicine visits as opposed to in-person outpatient appointments. We used national data to evaluate shifts in modes of hepatology outpatient care for patients with cirrhosis during the pandemic. This was a retrospective cohort study among U.S. veterans with cirrhosis. We used linear regression to evaluate absolute and percentage changes from baseline in hepatology in-person visits and telemedicine visits from January 1, 2020, to August 11, 2020. The proportion of in-person and telemedicine visits were plotted geographically to demonstrate state-level shifts in care delivery over time. Patient-level characteristics in the pre-COVID and during-COVID periods were also compared. We identified 5,618 in-person and 6,210 telemedicine hepatology visits among patients with cirrhosis. In-person visits significantly declined (-16.0% per week; 95% confidence interval [CI] -20.7, -11.2; P < 0.001), while telemedicine visits significantly increased (61.3% per week; 95% CI 45.1, 77.5; P < 0.001) in the early during-COVID period. At the U.S. state level, we found that nearly all states experienced a significant shift toward telemedicine over the course of several weeks. Patients over the age of 70 years and Black patients were less likely to receive telemedicine visits in the pre-COVID period (each P < 0.05), although these differences were eliminated in the during-COVID periods. Conclusion: Among patients with cirrhosis, hepatology outpatient care delivery has shifted heavily toward telemedicine due to COVID-19. This occurred across the United States, and changes have been sustained through August 2020. Expanded telemedicine visits among older patients and Black patients may reflect dedicated efforts to increased access to care among these groups.

Early thoracentesis correlated with survival benefit in patients with spontaneous bacterial empyema

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous bacterial empyema (SBEM) is a rare complication of hepatic hydrothorax characterized by hydrothorax infection in the absence of pneumonia.

AIMS AND METHODS

We conducted this study to compare clinical outcomes in SBEM patients who underwent early thoracentesis (ET) (≤ 24 h from presentation) versus those who underwent delayed thoracentesis (DT). All patients diagnosed with SBEM at Mayo Clinic Rochester, Minnesota from January 1st 1999 to December 31st 2020 were reviewed. Demographics, pleural fluid studies, laboratory results and clinical outcomes were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 54 SBEM patients (27 ET and 27 DT) were identified with 38 (70.4%) of patients presenting with right-sided effusions. Both groups had similar baseline characteristics. The rate of ICU admission was significantly higher in the DT group (15 (55.6%) vs. 7 (25.9%) patients, P = 0.027). Patients with DT had similar rate of AKI (11 (40.7%) vs. 6 (22.2%) patients, P = 0.074). In-hospital mortality (11 (40.7%) vs. 2 (7.4%) patients, P = 0.004), 3-month mortality (16 (59.3%) vs. 2 (7.4%) patients, P < 0.001) and 1-year mortality rate (21 (77.8%) vs. 6 (22.2%) patients, P < 0.001) were higher in the DT group.

CONCLUSION

Patients with SBEM who underwent thoracentesis after 24 h from presentation (DT) had higher rates of mortality and ICU admission compared to patients who received early thoracentesis. Thoracentesis should be performed early in patients with suspected SBEM since it may improve survival.

Novel Application of Predictive Modeling: A Tailored Approach to Promoting HCC Surveillance in Patients With Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

There has been increased interest in interventions to promote hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance given low utilization and high proportions of late stage detection. Accurate prediction of patients likely versus unlikely to respond to interventions could allow a cost-effective approach to outreach and facilitate targeting more intensive interventions to likely non-responders.

DESIGN

We conducted a secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial evaluating a mailed outreach strategy to promote HCC surveillance among 1200 cirrhosis patients at a safety-net health system between December 2014 and March 2017. We developed regularized logistic regression (RLR) and gradient boosting machine (GBM) algorithm models to predict surveillance completion during each of the 3 screening rounds in a training set (n = 960). Model performance was assessed using multiple performance metrics in an independent test set (n = 240).

RESULTS

Among 1200 patients, surveillance was completed in 41-47% of patients over the three rounds. The RLR and GBM models demonstrated good discriminatory accuracy, with area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves of 0.67 and 0.66 respectively in the first surveillance round and improved to 0.77 by the third surveillance round after incorporating prior screening behavior as a feature. Additional performance characteristics including the Brier score, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and reliability diagrams were also evaluated. The most important variables for the predictive model were prior screening completion status and past primary care contact.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive models can help stratify patients' likelihood to respond to surveillance outreach invitations, facilitating tailored strategies to maximize effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HCC surveillance population health programs.

Postvaccination COVID-19 infection is associated with reduced mortality in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients develop breakthrough COVID-19 infection despite vaccination. The aim of this study was to identify outcomes in patients with cirrhosis who developed postvaccination COVID-19.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study among US veterans with cirrhosis and postvaccination or unvaccinated COVID-19. Patients were considered fully vaccinated if COVID-19 was diagnosed 14 days after the second dose of either the Pfizer BNT162b2, the Moderna 1273-mRNA, or the single-dose Janssen Ad.26.COV2.S vaccines and partially vaccinated if COVID-19 was diagnosed 7 days after the first dose of any vaccine but prior to full vaccination. We investigated the association of postvaccination COVID-19 with mortality.

RESULTS

We identified 3242 unvaccinated and 254 postvaccination COVID-19 patients with cirrhosis (82 after full and 172 after partial vaccination). In a multivariable analysis of a 1:2 propensity-matched cohort including vaccinated (n = 254) and unvaccinated (n = 508) participants, postvaccination COVID-19 was associated with reduced risk of death (adjusted HR [aHR], 0.21; 95% CI, 0.11-0.42). The reduction was observed after both full (aHR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.08-0.63) and partial (aHR, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.07-0.54) vaccination, following the 1273-mRNA (aHR, 0.12; 95% CI 0.04-0.37) and BNT162b2 (aHR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.10-0.71) vaccines and among patients with compensated (aHR, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.08-0.45) and decompensated (aHR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.08-0.90) cirrhosis. Findings were consistent in a sensitivity analysis restricted to participants who developed COVID-19 after vaccine availability.

CONCLUSIONS

Though patients with cirrhosis can develop breakthrough COVID-19 after full or partial vaccination, these infections are associated with reduced mortality.

The Association Between Proton Pump Inhibitor Exposure and Key Liver-Related Outcomes in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Veterans Affairs Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The impact of proton pump inhibitory (PPI) medications on adverse outcomes in cirrhosis remains controversial. We aimed to evaluate the association between PPI exposure and all-cause mortality, infection, and decompensation in a large national cohort.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of patients with cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration. PPI exposure was classified as a time-updating variable from the index time of the cirrhosis diagnosis. Inverse probability treatment weighting-adjusted Cox regression was performed with additional adjustment for key time-varying covariates, including cardiovascular comorbidities, gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB), and statin exposure.

RESULTS

The study included 76,251 patients, 23,628 of whom were on a PPI at baseline. In adjusted models, binary (yes/no) PPI exposure was associated with reduced hazard of all-cause mortality in patients with hospitalization for GIB (hazard ratio [HR], 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.91; P < .001) but had no significant association in all others (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.97-1.02; P = .58). However, cumulative PPI exposure was associated with increased mortality in patients without hospitalization for GIB (HR, 1.07 per 320 mg-months [omeprazole equivalents]; 95% CI, 1.06-1.08; P < .001). PPI exposure was significantly associated with severe infection (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.18-1.24; P < .001) and decompensation (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.61-1.68; P < .001). In a cause-specific mortality analysis, PPI exposure was associated with increased liver-related mortality (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.19-1.28) but with decreased nonliver-related mortality (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.85-0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

PPI exposure is associated with increased risk of infection and decompensation in cirrhosis, which may mediate liver-related mortality. However, PPI use was associated with reduced all-cause mortality in those with prior GIB, suggesting benefit in the presence of an appropriate indication.

Comparison of nivolumab and sorafenib for first systemic therapy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis are excluded or underrepresented in clinical trials of systemic therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and comparisons of available therapies are lacking. We aimed to compare overall survival for patients with HCC and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis treated with nivolumab or sorafenib as first systemic treatment.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study in patients with HCC and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis treated at Veterans Affairs medical centers to compare overall survival, adverse events, and reason for discontinuation of therapy between patients treated with nivolumab or sorafenib as first systemic treatment. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

RESULTS

Of those meeting inclusion criteria, 431 patients were treated with sorafenib and 79 with nivolumab. Median OS was 4.0 months (95% CI 3.5-4.8) in the sorafenib cohort and 5.0 months (95% CI 3.3-6.8) in the nivolumab cohort. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, nivolumab was associated with a significantly reduced hazard of death compared to sorafenib (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.52-0.91; p = 0.008). In a secondary analysis using propensity score methods, results did not reach statistical significance (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.55-1.06; p = 0.11). Treatment was discontinued due to toxicity in 12% of patients receiving nivolumab compared to 36% receiving sorafenib (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In patients with HCC and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis, nivolumab treatment may be associated with improved overall survival and improved tolerability compared to sorafenib and should be considered for the first systemic treatment in this population.

Inpatient Gastroenterology Consultation and Outcomes of Cirrhosis-Related Hospitalizations in Two Large National Cohorts

BACKGROUND

Little is known about use of specialty care among patients admitted with cirrhosis complications.

AIMS

We sought to characterize the use and impact of gastroenterology/hepatology (GI/HEP) consultations in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. We studied two national cohorts-the Veterans Affairs Costs and Outcomes in Liver Disease (VOCAL) and a nationally representative database of commercially insured patients (Optum Clinformatics™ DataMart).

METHODS

Cirrhosis-related admissions were classified by ICD9/10 codes for ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, alcohol-associated hepatitis, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, or infection related. We included 20,287/222,166 index admissions from VOCAL/Optum from 2010 to 2016. Propensity-matched analyses were conducted to balance clinical characteristics. Mortality and readmission were evaluated using competing risk regression (subhazard ratios, sHR), and length of stay (LOS) was assessed using negative binomial regression.

RESULTS

GI/HEP consultations were completed among 37% and 42% patients in VOCAL and Optum, respectively. In propensity-matched analyses for VOCAL, GI/HEP consultation was associated with adjusted estimates of increased LOS (1.55 + 1.03 additional days), 90-day mortality (sHR 1.23, 95% CI 1.14-1.36), and lower 30-day readmissions (sHR 0.82, 95% CI 0.75-0.89). In Optum, inpatient consultation was associated with higher LOS (1.13 + 1.01 additional days), higher 90-day mortality (sHR 1.57, 95% CI 1.43-1.72), and higher 30-day readmission risk (sHR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.05). Post-discharge primary and specialty care was higher among admissions receiving GI/HEP consultation in both cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of GI/HEP consultation for cirrhosis-related admissions was low. Patients who received consultation had higher disease severity, and consultation was not associated with lower mortality but was associated with lower 30-day readmissions in the VA cohort only.

Machine learning-based system for prediction of ascites grades in patients with liver cirrhosis using laboratory and clinical data: design and implementation study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to implement a non-invasive model to predict ascites grades among patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

In the present study, we used modern machine learning (ML) methods to develop a scoring system solely based on routine laboratory and clinical data to help physicians accurately diagnose and predict different degrees of ascites. We used ANACONDA3-5.2.0 64 bit, free and open-source platform distribution of Python programming language with numerous modules, packages, and rich libraries that provide various methods for classification problems. Through the 10-fold cross-validation, we employed three common learning models on our dataset, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and neural network classification algorithms.

RESULTS

According to the data received from the research institute, three types of data analysis have been performed. The algorithms used to predict ascites were KNN, cross-validation (CV), and multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLPNN), which achieved an average accuracy of 94, 91, and 90%, respectively. Also, in the average accuracy of the algorithms, KNN had the highest accuracy of 94%.

CONCLUSIONS

We applied well-known ML approaches to predict ascites. The findings showed a strong performance compared to the classical statistical approaches. This ML-based approach can help to avoid unnecessary risks and costs for patients with acute stages of the disease.

Risk Prediction Models for Postoperative Decompensation and Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Veterans Affairs Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis have an increased risk of postoperative mortality for a range of surgeries; however, they are also at risk of postoperative complications such as infection and cirrhosis decompensation. To date, there are no prediction scores that specifically risk stratify patients for these morbidities.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study using data of patients with cirrhosis who underwent diverse surgeries in the Veterans Health Administration. Validated algorithms and/or manual adjudication were used to ascertain postoperative decompensation and postoperative infection through 90 days. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate prediction models in derivation and validation sets using variables from the recently-published Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL)-Penn cirrhosis surgical risk scores for postoperative mortality. Models were compared with the Mayo risk score, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD)-sodium, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores.

RESULTS

A total 4712 surgeries were included; patients were predominantly male (97.2 %), white (63.3 %), and with alcohol-related liver disease (35.3 %). Through 90 postoperative days, 8.7 % of patients experienced interval decompensation, and 4.5 % infection. Novel VOCAL-Penn prediction models for decompensation demonstrated good discrimination for interval decompensation (C-statistic 0.762 vs 0.663 Mayo vs 0.603 MELD-sodium vs 0.560 CTP; P < .001); however, discrimination was only fair for postoperative infection (C-statistic 0.666 vs 0.592 Mayo [P = .13] vs 0.502 MELD-sodium [P < .001] vs 0.503 CTP [P < .001]). The model for interval decompensation had excellent calibration in both derivation and validation sets.

CONCLUSION

We report the derivation and internal validation of a novel, parsimonious prediction model for postoperative decompensation in patients with cirrhosis. This score demonstrated superior discrimination and calibration as compared with existing clinical standards, and will be available at www.vocalpennscore.com.

Statin exposure is associated with reduced development of acute-on-chronic liver failure in a Veterans Affairs cohort

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS

There is a need to identify therapies that prevent the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with cirrhosis. This study sought to evaluate the association between statin exposure and the risk of developing ACLF in a large national cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with cirrhosis within the Veterans Health Administration from 2008 and 2018. Patients were stratified into 3 groups based on statin exposure (statin naïve, existing statin user, and new statin initiator). Cox proportional hazards regression models with inverse probability treatment weighting and marginal structural models were utilized to comprehensively address potential confounding in estimating the association between time-updated statin exposure and first occurrence of high-grade ACLF.

RESULTS

The cohort included 84,963 patients, of whom 26.9% were on a statin at baseline. A total of 8,558 (10.1%) patients with cirrhosis were hospitalized with high-grade ACLF over a median follow-up time of 51.6 months (IQR 27.5-81.4). Time-updated statin use was associated with a significant reduction in the hazard of developing ACLF (hazard ratio [HR] 0.62, 95% CI 0.59-0.65, p <0.001). Increasing doses of statin were associated with progressively reduced hazard of developing ACLF (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.86, p <0.001 for <20 mg vs. 0 mg of time-updated statin exposure, in simvastatin equivalents; HR 0.61, 95%, CI 0.58-0.64, p <0.001 for >20 mg vs. 0 mg statin exposure). Furthermore, every additional 5 months of statin exposure was associated with a 9% reduced hazard of high-grade ACLF (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.90-0.92, p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large, retrospective, cohort study in patients with cirrhosis, statin use was significantly associated with reduced development of high-grade ACLF.

LAY SUMMARY

Statin therapy has been shown to have numerous beneficial effects in patients with chronic liver disease. This study demonstrated a strong association between statin therapy and a reduced risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure development in patients with cirrhosis. The results of this study support the promising role that statins may play in future prevention of acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with cirrhosis.

Race Adjustment in eGFR Equations Does Not Improve Estimation of Acute Kidney Injury Events in Patients with Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Accuracy of glomerular filtration rate estimating (eGFR) equations has significant implications in cirrhosis, potentially guiding simultaneous liver kidney allocation and drug dosing. Most equations adjust for Black race, partially accounted for by reported differences in muscle mass by race. Patients with cirrhosis, however, are prone to sarcopenia which may mitigate such differences. We evaluated the association between baseline eGFR and incident acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with cirrhosis with and without race adjustment.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective national cohort study of veterans with cirrhosis. Baseline eGFR was calculated using multiple eGFR equations including Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI), both with and without race adjustment. Poisson regression was used to investigate the association between baseline eGFR and incident AKI events per International Club of Ascites criteria.

RESULTS

We identified 72,267 patients with cirrhosis, who were 97.3% male, 57.8% white, and 19.7% Black. Over median follow-up 2.78 years (interquartile range 1.22-5.16), lower baseline eGFR by CKD-EPI was significantly associated with higher rates of AKI in adjusted models. For all equations this association was minimally impacted when race adjustment was removed. For example, removal of race adjustment from CKD-EPI resulted in a 0.1% increase in the association between lower eGFR and higher rate of AKI events per 15 mL/min/1.73 m² change (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Race adjustment in eGFR equations did not enhance AKI risk estimation in patients with cirrhosis. Further study is warranted to assess the impacts of removing race from eGFR equations on clinical outcomes and policy.

Prediction of Patient Hepatic Encephalopathy Risk with Freiburg Index of Post-TIPS Survival Score Following Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunts: A Retrospective Study

Background

Hepatic encephalopathy is a complication of portal hypertension. The Freiburg index of transjugular portosystemic shunt (TIPS) and patient outcomes have recently been described. This retrospective study was conducted at a single center in China and included 241 patients with portal hypertension who underwent TIPS implantation to evaluate the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival score (FIPS) to predict hepatic encephalopathy.

Methods

A single-center retrospective study including 241 patients who underwent TIPS operation between April 2015 and July 2019 was conducted. Clinical demographics and relevant clinical parameters within 24h after admission were collected. The prediction performances of FIPS, Child–Pugh and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were compared by decision curve analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. In addition, multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent predictors.

Results

Eighty-three out of 241 patients (34.4%) finally developed post-TIPS hepatic encephalopathy. The area under the ROC curve of FIPS was 0.744 (95% confidence interval: 0.684–0.798). FIPS was identified as an independent risk factor for post-TIPS hepatic encephalopathy (hazard ratio: 2.23, 95% confidence interval: 1.71–2.90, p<0.001). Moreover, we further grouped the FIPS scores into two categories (FIPS ≤-0.97, low-risk; FIPS >-0.97, high risk) to improve its applicability. Patients with high FIPS scores had a significantly higher incidence of hepatic encephalopathy than patients with low FIPS scores (P<0.05).

Conclusion

This study showed that FIPS could be used to evaluate the risk of hepatic encephalopathy in this patient group with improved predictive performance when compared with the Child–Pugh and MELD scores.

Prognosis conversations in advanced liver disease: A qualitative interview study with health professionals and patients

Advanced Liver Disease (AdvLD) is common, morbid, and associated with high likelihood of death. Patients may not fully understand their prognosis and are often unprepared for the course of illness. Little is known about how and when to deliver prognosis-related information to patients with AdvLD, who should participate, and what should be discussed. We conducted in-depth interviews with a multi-profession sample of Hepatology clinicians and patients with AdvLD. Participants were drawn from three geographically diverse facilities (New England, Texas, California). We used inductive and deductive qualitative data analysis approaches to identify themes related to AdvLD prognosis discussions. Thematic analysis focused on content, timing, and participants’ roles in prognosis discussions. In total, 31 patients with AdvLD and 26 multi-profession clinicians completed interviews. Most participants provided a broad conceptualization of prognosis beyond predictions of survival, including expectations about illness course, ways to manage or avoid complications and a need to address patients’ emotions. Patients favored initiating discussions early in the AdvLD course and welcomed a multi-profession approach to conducting discussions. Clinicians favored a larger role for specialty physicians. All participants recognized that AdvLD prognosis discussions occur infrequently and favored a structured, standardized approach to broadly discussing prognosis. Patients with AdvLD and their clinicians favored a multifaceted approach to prognosis conversations including discussions of life expectancy, predictions about likely course of liver disease, and expected changes in function and capabilities over time. Structured and early prognosis discussions should be part of routine AdvLD care.

Time-course changes in liver functional reserve after successful sofosbuvir/velpatasvir treatment in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

AIM

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are currently available even for patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Reportedly, hepatic functional reserve improved in the short term after achievement of sustained virologic response (SVR). We aimed to clarify the outcomes after achievement of SVR in patients with decompensated cirrhosis who were treated by DAAs in real-world clinical practice.

METHODS

A prospective, multicenter study of 12-week sofosbuvir/velpatasvir was conducted in 86 patients with decompensated cirrhosis, who were evaluated for 48 weeks post-treatment.

RESULTS

The cohort included 8 patients with Child-Pugh class A, 56 with B, and 22 with C. The proportion of Child-Pugh class A patients increased from 9.1% at baseline to 44.1% at 48 weeks post-treatment, while that of class B and C patients decreased from 66.2% to 35.1% and from 24.7% to 14.3%, respectively. Among the patients with Child-Pugh class B and C, univariate analysis identified low total bilirubin, Child-Pugh score, Child-Pugh class B, ALBI score, and high serum albumin as factors associated with improvement to Child-Pugh class A. The optimal cut-off value of the factors for predicting improvement to Child-Pugh class A were 1.4 mg/dl for total bilirubin, 2.9 g/dl for serum albumin, 8 points for Child-Pugh score, and -1.88 for ALBI score.

CONCLUSION

Achievement of SVR with sofosbuvir/velpatasvir improved the liver functional reserve at 12 weeks post-treatment and maintained the stable effects until 48 weeks post-treatment in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Specifically, the patients with less advanced conditions had the likelihood of improving to Child-Pugh class A at 48 weeks post-treatment.

Depression and Anxiety Are Common Among Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Depression and anxiety can have negative effects on patients and are important to treat. There have been few studies of their prevalence among patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to characterize the prevalence and risk factors for depression and anxiety in a large multi-center cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a telephone-based survey of patients with cirrhosis at 3 health systems in the United States (a tertiary-care referral center, a safety net system, and a Veterans hospital) from April through December 2018. Of 2871 patients approached, 1021 (35.6%) completed the survey. Depression and anxiety were assessed using the PHQ-9 (range 0-25) and STAI (range 20-80) instruments, with clinically significant values defined as PHQ-9 ≥15 and STAI ≥40. We performed multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify factors associated with significant depression and anxiety.

RESULTS

The median PHQ-9 score was 7 (25th percentile-75th percentile, 3-12) and the median STAI score was 33 (25th percentile-75th percentile, 23-47); 15.6% of patients had moderately severe to severe depression and 42.6% of patients had high anxiety. In multivariable analyses, self-reported poor health (odds ratio [OR], 4.08; 95% CI, 1.79-9.28), being widowed (OR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.07-4.05), fear of hepatocellular carcinoma (OR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.04-3.42), higher household income (OR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.10-0.95), and Hispanic ethnicity (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.33-0.97) were associated with moderately severe to severe depression. Male sex (OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.51-0.98), self-reported poor health (OR, 2.73; 95% CI, 1.73-4.32), and fear of hepatocellular carcinoma (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.33-3.78) were associated with high anxiety.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly 1 in 6 patients with cirrhosis have moderately severe to severe depression and nearly half have moderate-severe anxiety. Patients with cirrhosis should be evaluated for both of these disorders.

Impact of SGLT2 inhibitors in comparison with DPP4 inhibitors on ascites and death in veterans with cirrhosis on metformin

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) may have favourable neurohumoral and metabolic effects in patients with chronic liver disease. However, studies examining SGLT2i in this population have been limited to patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and have focused on surrogate biomarkers. Our aim was to evaluate whether SGLT2i can reduce the incidence of ascites and death over a period of 36 months in patients with cirrhosis and diabetes mellitus. Using electronic health data from Veterans Affairs hospitals in the United States, we conducted a propensity score matched intention-to-treat analysis among veterans on metformin who subsequently received either SGLT2i or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors. Among 423 matched pairs (in total, 846 patients), we found no significant difference in the risk for ascites (hazard ratio 0.68 for SGLT2i, 95% confidence interval 0.37-1.25; p = .22) but did find that SGLT2i users had a reduced risk for death (adjusted hazard ratio 0.33, 95% confidence interval 0.11-0.99; p < .05). In comparison with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, SGLT2i may improve survival for patients with cirrhosis who require additional pharmacotherapy for diabetes mellitus beyond metformin, but confirmatory studies are necessary.

Effects of Metformin Exposure on Survival in a Large National Cohort of Patients With Diabetes and Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Type II diabetes mellitus worsens the prognosis of cirrhosis. Multiple medications including metformin and statins often are co-administered to manage patients with diabetes. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of metformin exposure on mortality, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma in individuals with diabetes and cirrhosis, controlling for multiple concomitant exposures.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis diagnosed between January 1, 2008, through June 30, 2016, in the Veterans Health administration. Marginal structural models and propensity-matching approaches were implemented to quantify the treatment effect of metformin in patients with pre-existing diabetes with or without prior metformin exposure.

RESULTS

Among 74,984 patients with cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus was present before the diagnosis of cirrhosis in 53.8%, and was diagnosed during follow-up evaluation in 4.8%. Before the diagnosis of cirrhosis, 11,114 patients had active utilization of metformin. In these patients, metformin, statin, and angiotensinogen-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin-2-receptor blocker exposure were associated independently with reduced mortality (metformin hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.61-0.75); metformin was not associated with reduced hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation after adjustment for concomitant statin exposure. For patients with diabetes before a diagnosis of cirrhosis but no prior metformin exposure, metformin similarly was associated with reduced mortality (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.35-0.97), but not with reduced hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation.

CONCLUSIONS

Metformin use in patients with cirrhosis and diabetes appears safe and is associated independently with reduced overall, but not liver-related, mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, or decompensation after adjusting for concomitant statin and angiotensinogen-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin-2-receptor blocker exposure.

Association of BNT162b2 mRNA and mRNA-1273 Vaccines With COVID-19 Infection and Hospitalization Among Patients With Cirrhosis

IMPORTANCE

Two mRNA-based vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were found to be highly efficacious in phase 3 clinical trials in the US. However, patients with chronic illnesses, including cirrhosis, were excluded from clinical trials. Patients with cirrhosis have immune dysregulation that is associated with vaccine hyporesponsiveness.

OBJECTIVE

To study the association of receipt of the Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA or the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccines in patients with cirrhosis compared with a propensity-matched control group of patients at similar risk of infection and severe disease from COVID-19.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis who received at least 1 dose of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine at the Veterans Health Administration. Patients who received at least 1 dose of the vaccine (n = 20 037) were propensity matched with 20 037 controls to assess the associations of vaccination with new COVID-19 infection and COVID-19 hospitalization and death.

EXPOSURES

Receipt of at least 1 dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA or the mRNA-1273 vaccines between December 18, 2020, and March 17, 2021.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

COVID-19 infection as documented by a positive result for COVID-19 by polymerase chain reaction, hospitalization, and death due to COVID-19 infection.

RESULTS

The median (interquartile range) age of the vaccinated individuals in the study cohort was 69.1 (8.4) years and 19 465 (97.2%) of the participants in each of the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups were male, consistent with a US veteran population. The mRNA-1273 vaccine was administered in 10 236 (51%) and the BNT162b2 mRNA in 9801 (49%) patients. Approximately 99.7% of patients who received the first dose of either vaccine with a follow-up of 42 days or more received a second dose. The number of COVID-19 infections in the vaccine recipients was similar to the control group in days 0 to 7, 7 to 14, 14 to 21, and 21 to 28 after the first dose. After 28 days, receipt of 1 dose of an mRNA vaccine was associated with a 64.8% reduction in COVID-19 infections and 100% protection against hospitalization or death due to COVID-19 infection. The association of reduced COVID-19 infections after the first dose was lower among patients with decompensated (50.3%) compared with compensated cirrhosis (66.8%). Receipt of a second dose was associated with a 78.6% reduction in COVID-19 infections and 100% reduction in COVID-19-related hospitalization or death after 7 days.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study of US veterans found that mRNA vaccine administration was associated with a delayed but modest reduction in COVID-19 infection but an excellent reduction in COVID-19-related hospitalization or death in patients with cirrhosis.

Administrative Coding in Electronic Health Care Record-Based Research of NAFLD: An Expert Panel Consensus Statement

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Electronic health record (EHR)-based research allows the capture of large amounts of data, which is necessary in NAFLD, where the risk of clinical liver outcomes is generally low. The lack of consensus on which International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes should be used as exposures and outcomes limits comparability and generalizability of results across studies. We aimed to establish consensus among a panel of experts on ICD codes that could become the reference standard and provide guidance around common methodological issues.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Researchers with an interest in EHR-based NAFLD research were invited to collectively define which administrative codes are most appropriate for documenting exposures and outcomes. We used a modified Delphi approach to reach consensus on several commonly encountered methodological challenges in the field. After two rounds of revision, a high level of agreement (>67%) was reached on all items considered. Full consensus was achieved on a comprehensive list of administrative codes to be considered for inclusion and exclusion criteria in defining exposures and outcomes in EHR-based NAFLD research. We also provide suggestions on how to approach commonly encountered methodological issues and identify areas for future research.

CONCLUSIONS

This expert panel consensus statement can help harmonize and improve generalizability of EHR-based NAFLD research.

Factors Associated With Access to and Receipt of Liver Transplantation in Veterans With End-stage Liver Disease

IMPORTANCE

Organ scarcity means few patients with advanced liver disease undergo a transplant, making equitable distribution all the more crucial. Disparities may arise at any stage in the complex process leading up to this curative therapy.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the rate of and factors associated with referral, wait-listing, and receipt of liver allografts.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study used linked data from comprehensive electronic medical records and the United Network of Organ Sharing. Adult patients with cirrhosis and a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with addition of sodium score of at least 15 points between October 1, 2011, and December 31, 2017, were included in the study. Patients were from 129 hospitals in the integrated, US Department of Veterans Affairs health care system and were followed up through December 31, 2018. Statistical analyses were performed from April 28, 2020, to January 31, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Sociodemographic (eg, age, insurance, income), clinical (eg, liver disease etiology, severity, comorbidity), and health care facility (eg, complexity, rural or urban, presence of a liver transplant program) factors were evaluated.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Referral, wait-listing, and liver transplantation.

RESULTS

Of the 34 494 patients with cirrhosis (mean [SD] age, 62 [7.7] years; 33 560 men [97.29%]; 22 509 White patients [65.25%]), 1534 (4.45%) were referred, 1035 (3.00%) were wait-listed, and 549 (1.59%) underwent a liver transplant within 3 years of meeting clinical criteria for transplantation. Patient age of 70 years or older was associated with lower rates of referral (hazard ratio [HR], 0.09; 95% CI, 0.06-0.13), wait-listing (HR, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.04-0.12), and transplant (HR, 0.08; 95% CI, 0.04-0.16). Alcohol etiology for liver cirrhosis was associated with lower rates of referral (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.33-0.44), wait-listing (HR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.27-0.38), and transplant (HR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.23-0.37). In addition, comorbidity (none vs >1 comorbidity) was associated with lower rates of referral (HR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.40-0.56), wait-listing (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.31-0.46), and transplant (HR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.21-0.38). African American patients were less likely to be referred (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70-0.95) and wait-listed (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.61-0.88). Patients with lower annual income and those seen in facilities in the West were less likely to be referred (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.53-0.93), wait-listed (HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.36-0.64), or undergo a transplant (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.34-0.74). In a review of the medical records for 333 patients who had limited comorbidity but were not referred, organ transplant was considered as a potential option in 176 (52.85%). When documented, medical and psychosocial barriers explained most of the deficits in referral.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, few patients with advanced liver disease received referrals, were wait-listed, or underwent a transplant. The greatest deficits occurred at the referral step. Although health systems routinely track rates and disparities for organ transplants among wait-listed patients, extending monitoring to the earlier stages may help improve equity and manage potentially modifiable barriers to transplantation.

Treatment of hepatitis C virus infection in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: Truth or dare?

The discovery of direct acting antivirals (DAA) with high rates of sustained virusological response is the biggest epoch-making event in the history of hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. DAAs improve liver function, prevent hepatic decompensation, and might even reverse liver fibrosis. Although initial research pointed towards a potential drawback, it is now known beyond doubt that DAA treatment reduces hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence or recurrence after curative treatments. Unfortunately, the story has reached another plot twist, as several other issues have emerged: (i) Should we treat patients with early HCC and HCV before or after surgery/ablation? (ii) Should patients with HCC on the waiting list receive DAA before or after liver transplantation? (iii) Should we use interferon-free in patients with intermediate stage HCC or in patients under systemic treatments? In this review, we aim to offer some evidence-based answers to these changing clinical dilemmas where possible, or at least some educated guesses in cases were no or little data exists.

SACRED: Effect of simvastatin on hepatic decompensation and death in subjects with high-risk compensated cirrhosis: Statins and Cirrhosis: Reducing Events of Decompensation

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The development of decompensation in cirrhosis demarcates a marked change in the natural history of chronic liver disease. HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) exert pleiotropic effects that reduce inflammation and fibrosis as well as improve vascular reactivity. Retrospective studies uniformly have associated statin utilization with improved outcomes for patients with cirrhosis. Prospective human studies have shown that statins reduce portal hypertension and reduce death in patients with decompensated cirrhosis after variceal hemorrhage when added to standard therapy with an acceptable safety profile. This proposal aims to extend these findings to demonstrate that simvastatin reduces incident hepatic decompensation events among cirrhotic patients at high risk for hepatic decompensation.

METHODS

We will perform the SACRED Trial (NCT03654053), a phase III, prospective, multi-center, double-blind, randomized clinical trial at 11 VA Medical Centers. Patients with compensated cirrhosis with clinically significant portal hypertension will be stratified based upon the concomitant use of nonselective beta-blockers and randomized to simvastatin 40 mg/day versus placebo for up to 24 months. Patients will be observed for the development of hepatic decompensation (variceal hemorrhage, ascites, encephalopathy), hepatocellular carcinoma, liver-related death, death from any cause, and/or complications of statin therapy. Ancillary studies will evaluate patient-reported outcomes and pharmacogenetic corollaries of safety and/or efficacy.

CONCLUSION

Statins have a long track-record of safety and tolerability. This class of medications is generic and inexpensive, and thus, if the hypothesis is proven, there will be few barriers to widespread acceptance of the role of statins to prevent decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03654053.

Identifying Patients With Hepatic Encephalopathy Using Administrative Data in the ICD-10 Era

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a common complication of cirrhosis resulting in relapsing-remitting mental status changes ranging from deficits in executive function to coma. Incident HE is associated with an abrupt increase in mortality¹ and frequent hospitalization.² To further the understanding of the burden and impact of HE at the population level, valid algorithms are required to identify patients in administrative data. An International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 code is specific for HE (572.2), offering a 0.92 positive predictive value (PPV) and 0.36 negative predictive value (NPV).³ When applied in an algorithm to patients with ICD-9 codes for cirrhosis (eg, 571.5), Kanwal et al⁴ found a PPV and NPV of 0.86 and 0.87. Unfortunately, the switch to ICD-10 in 2015 rendered algorithms validated using ICD-9 invalid. Kaplan et al⁵ previously showed that lactulose and rifaximin use correlated with grade of HE for Child classification. Herein, we validate a diagnostic coding algorithm for HE using ICD-10 and medication records.

A Real-World Observational Cohort of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Design and Rationale for TARGET-HCC

This study describes the design of the TARGET-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cohort and descriptive characteristics of the patient population at diagnosis among those who were enrolled in the cohort across academic and community clinical centers. TARGET-HCC is a 5-year, longitudinal, observational cohort of patients with HCC receiving care in usual clinical practice. Redacted clinical information, obtained from medical records, captures the natural history and management of the disease, including the safety and efficacy of treatment interventions used in usual clinical practice. Patients can complete patient-reported outcome measures and provide biological specimens for future translational studies. The TARGET-HCC study includes adults with histologic, cytologic, or radiologic diagnosis of HCC from academic and community centers in both the United States and Europe. A total of 1,841 participants were enrolled between January 9, 2017, and July 23, 2019, at 67 sites in the United States and Europe. To date, the most common liver disease etiology in the cohort continues to be hepatitis C, although nearly half had a nonviral etiology, including alcohol-related liver disease or nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Most included patients were diagnosed at an early stage (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage [BCLC] 0/A), but only approximately one third underwent curative treatment. Systemic therapy has been used in 7.3% of enrolled patients, including 45.7% of those with BCLC stage C tumors. Conclusion: Overall, the TARGET-HCC cohort allows for the assessment of patient characteristics and investigation of new treatment paradigms and sequencing with existing agents as well as novel regimens for HCC.

Comparative study of indocyanine green-R15, Child-Pugh score, and model for end-stage liver disease score for prediction of hepatic encephalopathy after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) remains an enormous challenge in patients who undergo transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) implantation. The preoperative indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min (ICG-R15), as one of the liver function assessment tools, has been developed as a prognostic indicator in patients undergoing surgery, but there are limited data on its role in TIPS.

AIM

To determine whether the ICG-R15 can be used for prediction of post-TIPS HE in decompensated cirrhosis patients with portal hypertension (PHT) and compare the clinical value of ICG-R15, Child-Pugh score (CPS), and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in predicting post-TIPS HE with PHT.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 195 patients with PHT who underwent elective TIPS at Beijing Shijitan Hospital from January 2018 to June 2019. All patients underwent the ICG-R15 test, CPS evaluation, and MELD scoring 1 wk before TIPS. According to whether they developed HE or not, the patients were divided into two groups: HE group and non-HE group. The prediction of one-year post-TIPS HE by ICG-R15, CPS and MELD score was evaluated by the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs).

RESULTS

A total of 195 patients with portal hypertension were included and 23% (45/195) of the patients developed post-TIPS HE. The ICG-R15 was identified as an independent predictor of post-TIPS HE. The AUCs for the ICG-R15, CPS, and MELD score for predicting post-TIPS HE were 0.664 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.557-0.743, P = 0.0046), 0.596 (95%CI: 0.508-0.679, P = 0.087), and 0.641 (95%CI: 0.554-0.721, P = 0.021), respectively. The non-parametric approach (Delong-Delong & Clarke-Pearson) showed that there was statistical significance in pairwise comparison between AUCs of ICG-R15 and MELD score (P = 0.0229).

CONCLUSION

The ICG-R15 has appreciated clinical value for predicting the occurrence of post-TIPS HE and is a choice for evaluating the prognosis of patients undergoing TIPS.

The Predictive Role of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Lactate and Lactate Clearance for In-Hospital Mortality Among a National Cirrhosis Cohort

The burden of cirrhosis hospitalizations is increasing. The admission Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-lactate (MELD-lactate) was recently demonstrated to be a superior predictor of in-hospital mortality compared with MELD in limited cohorts. We identified specific classes of hospitalizations where MELD-lactate may be especially useful and evaluated the predictive role of lactate clearance. This was a retrospective cohort study of 1036 cirrhosis hospitalizations for gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, or other portal hypertension-related indications in the Veterans Health Administration where MELD-lactate was measured on admission. Performance characteristics for in-hospital mortality were compared between MELD-lactate and MELD/MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), with stratified analyses of MELD categories (≤15, >15 to <25, ≥25) and reason for admission. We also incorporated day 3 lactate levels into modeling and tested for an interaction between day 1 MELD-lactate and day 3 lactate clearance. MELD-lactate had superior discrimination for in-hospital mortality compared with MELD or MELD-Na (area under the curve [AUC] 0.789 versus 0.776 versus 0.760, respectively; P < 0.001) and superior calibration. MELD-lactate had higher discrimination among hospitalizations with MELD ≤15 (AUC 0.763 versus 0.608 for MELD, global P = 0.01) and hospitalizations for infection (AUC 0.791 versus 0.674 for MELD, global P < 0.001). We found a significant interaction between day 1 MELD-lactate and day 3 lactate clearance; heat maps were created as clinical tools to risk-stratify patients based on these clinical data. MELD-lactate had significantly superior performance in predicting in-hospital mortality among patients hospitalized for infection and/or with MELD ≤15 when compared with MELD or MELD-Na. Incorporating day 3 lactate clearance may further improve prognostication.

Electronic Medical Record-Based Case Phenotyping for the Charlson Conditions: Scoping Review

Background

Electronic medical records (EMRs) contain large amounts of rich clinical information. Developing EMR-based case definitions, also known as EMR phenotyping, is an active area of research that has implications for epidemiology, clinical care, and health services research.

Objective

This review aims to describe and assess the present landscape of EMR-based case phenotyping for the Charlson conditions.

Methods

A scoping review of EMR-based algorithms for defining the Charlson comorbidity index conditions was completed. This study covered articles published between January 2000 and April 2020, both inclusive. Embase (Excerpta Medica database) and MEDLINE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online) were searched using keywords developed in the following 3 domains: terms related to EMR, terms related to case finding, and disease-specific terms. The manuscript follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA) guidelines.

Results

A total of 274 articles representing 299 algorithms were assessed and summarized. Most studies were undertaken in the United States (181/299, 60.5%), followed by the United Kingdom (42/299, 14.0%) and Canada (15/299, 5.0%). These algorithms were mostly developed either in primary care (103/299, 34.4%) or inpatient (168/299, 56.2%) settings. Diabetes, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, and rheumatology had the highest number of developed algorithms. Data-driven and clinical rule–based approaches have been identified. EMR-based phenotype and algorithm development reflect the data access allowed by respective health systems, and algorithms vary in their performance.

Conclusions

Recognizing similarities and differences in health systems, data collection strategies, extraction, data release protocols, and existing clinical pathways is critical to algorithm development strategies. Several strategies to assist with phenotype-based case definitions have been proposed.

Mortality and Hepatic Decompensation in Patients With Cirrhosis and Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Anticoagulation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Outcomes with anticoagulation (AC) are understudied in advanced liver disease. We investigated effects of AC with warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) on all-cause mortality and hepatic decompensation as well as ischemic stroke, major adverse cardiovascular events, splanchnic vein thrombosis, and bleeding in a cohort with cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation (AF).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This was a retrospective, longitudinal study using national data of U.S. veterans with cirrhosis at 128 medical centers, including patients with cirrhosis with incident AF, from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2017 followed through December 31, 2018. To assess the effects of AC on outcomes, we applied propensity score (PS) matching and marginal structural models (MSMs) to account for confounding by indication and time-dependent confounding. The final cohort included 2,694 veterans with cirrhosis with AF (n = 1,694 and n = 704 in the warfarin and DOAC cohorts after PS matching, respectively) with a median of 4.6 years of follow-up. All-cause mortality was lower with warfarin versus no AC (PS matched: hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-0.76; MSM models: HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.73) and DOACs versus no AC (PS matched: HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.50-0.93; MSM models: HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31-0.81). In MSM models, warfarin (HR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.09-0.90) and DOACs (HR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.07-0.79) were associated with reduced ischemic stroke. In secondary analyses, bleeding was lower with DOACs compared to warfarin (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Warfarin and DOACs were associated with reduced all-cause mortality. Warfarin was associated with more bleeding compared to no AC. DOACs had a lower incidence of bleeding compared to warfarin in exploratory analyses. Future studies should prospectively investigate these observed associations.

Patient Frailty Is Independently Associated With the Risk of Hospitalization for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

There is significant interest in identifying risk factors associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). In transplant candidates, frailty predicts wait-list mortality and posttransplant outcomes. However, the impact of frailty on ACLF development and mortality is unknown. This was a retrospective study of US veterans with cirrhosis identified between 2008 and 2016. First hospitalizations were characterized as ACLF or non-ACLF admissions. Prehospitalization patient frailty was ascertained using a validated score based on administrative coding data. We used logistic regression to investigate the impact of an increasing frailty score on the odds of ACLF hospitalization and short-term ACLF mortality. Cox regression was used to analyze the association between frailty and longterm survival from hospitalization. We identified 16,561 cirrhosis hospitalizations over a median follow-up of 4.19 years (interquartile range, 2.47-6.34 years). In adjusted models, increasing frailty score was associated with significantly increased odds of ACLF hospitalization versus non-ACLF hospitalization (odds ratio, 1.03 per point; 95% CI 1.02-1.03; P < 0.001). By contrast, frailty score was not associated with ACLF 28- or 90-day mortality (P = 0.13 and P = 0.33, respectively). In an adjusted Cox analysis of all hospitalizations, increasing frailty scores were associated with poorer longterm survival from the time of hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.02 per 5 points; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.03; P = 0.004). Frailty increases the likelihood of ACLF hospitalization among patients with cirrhosis, but it does not impact short-term ACLF mortality. These findings have implications for clinicians caring for frail outpatients with cirrhosis, including tailored follow-up, risk mitigation strategies, and possible expedited transplant evaluation.