A mechanistic evolutionary model explains the time-dependent pattern of substitution rates in viruses

The recency and geographical origins of the bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2

The emergence of SARS-CoV in 2002 and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 led to increased sampling of sarbecoviruses circulating in horseshoe bats. Employing phylogenetic inference while accounting for recombination of bat sarbecoviruses, we find that the closest-inferred bat virus ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 existed less than a decade prior to their emergence in humans. Phylogeographic analyses show bat sarbecoviruses traveled at rates approximating their horseshoe bat hosts and circulated in Asia for millennia. We find that the direct ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are unlikely to have reached their respective sites of emergence via dispersal in the bat reservoir alone, supporting interactions with intermediate hosts through wildlife trade playing a role in zoonotic spillover. These results can guide future sampling efforts and demonstrate that viral genomic regions extremely closely related to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 were circulating in horseshoe bats, confirming their importance as the reservoir species for SARS viruses.

Population Genetic Structure and Human Adaptation of Kaposi Sarcoma-Associated Herpesvirus

Background

Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV), the etiologic agent of Kaposi sarcoma, is human-specific and is thought to have emerged from primate-infecting gammaherpesviruses. KSHV seroprevalence shows geographic variation, being highest in sub-Saharan Africa, intermediate in the Mediterranean area, and low in most other locations. However, KSHV prevalence is also particularly high in specific regions such as the Miyako Islands (Japan).

Methods

We retrieved KSHV genomes from public repositories and analyzed geographic patterns using principal component analysis and STRUCTURE. Adaptation to the human host was investigated by likelihood ratio tests for positive selection. Protein structures were derived from the HerpesFolds database.

Results

Most non-African genomes are genetically separated by the African genomes, and the latter are divided into 2 main lineages. The African genomes received most of their ancestry from 2 populations showing limited drift, suggesting an African origin for circulating KSHV strains. Several non-African genomes instead have most of their ancestry covered by a highly drifted ancestral population. However, some non-African genomes show similar ancestry proportions to the African ones, including those from Miyako Islands and the variant F subtype sampled in France. Molecular analysis of adaptation to the human host identified core genes as the major selection targets, including 2 viral enzymes that counteract human immune defenses.

Conclusions

We suggest that the genetic diversity of extant strains reflects relatively recent demographic events associated with viral lineage extinctions, which may have influenced KSHV epidemiology. Adaptation to the human host involved changes in core genes, possibly a strategy to optimize protein-protein interactions.

Phylodynamics beyond neutrality: the impact of incomplete purifying selection on viral phylogenies and inference

Viral phylodynamics focuses on using sequence data to make inferences about the population dynamics of viral diseases. These inferences commonly include estimation of growth rates, reproduction numbers and times of most recent common ancestor. With few exceptions, existing phylodynamic inference approaches assume that all observed and ancestral viral genetic variation is fitness-neutral. This assumption is commonly violated, with a large body of analyses indicating that fitness varies substantially among genotypes circulating in viral populations. Here, we focus on fitness variation arising from deleterious mutations, asking whether incomplete purifying selection of deleterious mutations has the potential to bias phylodynamic inference. We use simulations of an exponentially growing population to explore how incomplete purifying selection distorts tree shape and shifts the distribution of mutations over trees. We find that incomplete purifying selection strongly shapes the distribution of mutations while only weakly impacting tree shape. Despite incomplete purifying selection shifting the distribution of deleterious mutations, we find little discernible bias in estimates of viral growth rates and times of the most recent common ancestor. Our results reassuringly indicate that existing phylodynamic inference approaches that assume neutrality may nevertheless yield accurate epidemiological estimates in the face of incomplete purifying selection. More work is needed to assess the robustness of these findings to alternative epidemiological parametrizations.This article is part of the theme issue ''"A mathematical theory of evolution": phylogenetic models dating back 100 years'.

Host-Calibrated Time Tree Caps the Age of Giant Viruses

Viruses are widespread parasites with important impacts on public health, economy, and ecosystems. However, little is known about their origins, ages, and early evolutionary relationships with hosts. Here, we infer the maximum divergence times for eukaryotic giant DNA viruses (phylum Nucleocytoviricota) with dating analyses calibrated by host taxon ages of virus lineages with specific host ranges. The last common ancestor of Nucleocytoviricota existed after 1,000 million years ago, suggesting a much later origin than that of the eukaryotes. The early evolution of Nucleocytoviricota either coincided with or postdated a substantial increase in the oxygen levels on the Earth's surface during the Neoproterozoic Era. The lineage diversification of giant viruses was frequently associated with host shifts, including two major transitions from amoebozoan hosts to animal hosts that eventually led to the emergence of iridoviruses and African swine fever viruses within the last 450 million years. These results outline the evolutionary timescale of a major virus group and are pivotal for further understanding the virus-host interactions and their potential ecological roles in the Earth's history.

Identification of 2 Novel Subtypes of Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 8 and a Potential New Genotype Successfully Treated With Direct Acting Antivirals

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has high genetic diversity and is classified into 8 genotypes and >90 subtypes, with some endemic to specific world regions. This could compromise direct-acting antiviral efficacy and global HCV elimination.

METHODS

We characterized HCV subtypes "rare" in the United Kingdom (non-1a/1b/2b/3a/4d) by means of whole-genome sequencing via a national surveillance program. Genetic analyses to determine the genotype of samples with unresolved genotypes were undertaken by comparison with International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses HCV reference sequences.

RESULTS

Two HCV variants were characterized as being closely related to the recently identified genotype (GT) 8, with >85% pairwise genetic distance similarity to GT8 sequences and within the typical intersubtype genetic distance range. The individuals infected by the variants were UK residents originally from Pakistan and India. In contrast, a third variant was only confidently identified to be more similar to GT6 compared with other genotypes across 6% of the genome and was isolated from a UK resident originally from Guyana. All 3 were cured with pangenotypic direct-acting antivirals (sofosbuvir-velpatasvir or glecaprevir-pibrentasvir) despite the presence of resistance polymorphisms in NS3 (80K/168E), NS5A (28V/30S/62L/92S/93S) and NS5B (159F).

CONCLUSIONS

This study expands our knowledge of HCV diversity by identifying 2 new GT8 subtypes and potentially a new genotype.

[Analysis of changes in the genome of the Omsk hemorrhagic fever virus (Flaviviridae: Orthoflavivirus) during laboratory practices for virus preservation]

INTRODUCTION

Omsk hemorrhagic fever (OHF) is a severe disease identified in the 1940s in Western Siberia, Russia. Disease is caused by the OHF virus, which belongs to the genus Orthoflavivirus. The purpose of the work. Analysis of changes in the genome associated with the isolation of OHF virus strains in laboratory animals (Mus musculus).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Whole-genome nucleotide sequences of OHF virus strains from the working collection of the laboratory of arboviral infections of the department of natural focal viral infections of the Omsk Research Institute of Natural Focal Infections of Rospotrebnadzor were used in the study, as well as sequences from GenBank. Assessment of adaptive changes in the genome of the OHF virus was carried out using discriminant analysis methods, analyzing the composition and localization of emerging substitutions in viral RNA sequences obtained during the adaptation of viruses to the mouse organism as a result of passaging. Linked nucleotide substitutions were identified by calculating the mutual information for each pair of columns in the array of aligned nucleotide sequences. In the phylogenetic analysis, the relaxed clock algorithm of the BEAST program was used.

RESULTS

It has been shown that point substitutions during adaptation of OHF viruses to the mouse organism occur in all parts of the genome. Many of these substitutions are included in the pattern of linked substitutions identified in the genome of the OHF virus. Discriminant analysis of differences in nucleotide substitutions for groups combining sequences by the number of passages does not allow reliable discrimination between original sequences obtained from muskrat and sequences from first passages, but it recognizes well sequences from 7 or more passages, which suggests the possibility of adaptive selection of nucleotide substitutions when interacting with the body of a white mouse. Calculation of the average rate of substitutions per site per year without taking into account the occurrence of adaptive and related substitutions gives a value of 10-5, which is almost an order of magnitude different from the result when their presence is taken into account ‒ 10-4.

CONCLUSION

Changes in the nucleotide sequences of OHF that occur during laboratory virus preservation practices may influence the evolutionary rate values determined when analyzing these sequences and require further study.

Sequencing RNA from old, dried specimens reveals past viromes and properties of long-surviving RNA

Recovery of virus sequences from old samples provides an opportunity to study virus evolution and reconstruct historic virus-host interactions. Studies of old virus sequences have mainly relied on DNA or on RNA from fixed or frozen samples. The millions of specimens in natural history museums represent a potential treasure trove of old virus sequences, but it is not clear how well RNA survives in old samples. We experimentally assessed the stability of RNA in insects stored dry at room temperature over 72 weeks. Although RNA molecules grew fragmented, RNA yields remained surprisingly constant. RT-qPCR of host and virus RNA showed minimal differences between dried and frozen specimens. To assess RNA survival in much older samples we acquired Drosophila specimens from North American entomological collections. We recovered sequences from known and novel viruses including several coding complete virus genomes from a fly collected in 1908. We found that the virome of D. melanogaster has changed little over the past century. Galbut virus, the most prevalent virus infection in contemporary D. melanogaster, was also the most common in historic samples. Finally, we investigated the genomic and physical features of surviving RNA. RNA that survived was fragmented, chemically damaged, and preferentially double stranded or contained in ribonucleoprotein complexes. This showed that RNA - especially certain types of RNA - can survive in biological specimens over extended periods in the absence of fixation or freezing and confirms the utility of dried specimens to provide a clearer understanding of virus evolution.

Inference of Host-Pathogen Interaction Matrices from Genome-Wide Polymorphism Data

Host-pathogen coevolution is defined as the reciprocal evolutionary changes in both species due to genotype × genotype (G×G) interactions at the genetic level determining the outcome and severity of infection. While co-analyses of hosts and pathogen genomes (co-genome-wide association studies) allow us to pinpoint the interacting genes, these do not reveal which host genotype(s) is/are resistant to which pathogen genotype(s). The knowledge of this so-called infection matrix is important for agriculture and medicine. Building on established theories of host-pathogen interactions, we here derive four novel indices capturing the characteristics of the infection matrix. These indices can be computed from full genome polymorphism data of randomly sampled uninfected hosts, as well as infected hosts and their pathogen strains. We use these indices in an approximate Bayesian computation method to pinpoint loci with relevant G×G interactions and to infer their underlying interaction matrix. In a combined single nucleotide polymorphism dataset of 451 European humans and their infecting hepatitis C virus (HCV) strains and 503 uninfected individuals, we reveal a new human candidate gene for resistance to HCV and new virus mutations matching human genes. For two groups of significant human-HCV (G×G) associations, we infer a gene-for-gene infection matrix, which is commonly assumed to be typical of plant-pathogen interactions. Our model-based inference framework bridges theoretical models of G×G interactions with host and pathogen genomic data. It, therefore, paves the way for understanding the evolution of key G×G interactions underpinning HCV adaptation to the European human population after a recent expansion.

HIV-1 Gag, Pol, and Env diversified with limited adaptation since the 1980s

Knowledge of HIV-1 global sequence diversity is critical for developing an effective prophylactic against HIV-1 infection. We developed the Hervé platform to analyze and visualize trends in HIV-1 diversification. Using Hervé, we analyzed 4,830 Env, 4,407 Gag, and 3,002 Pol publicly available independent sequences corresponding to subtypes A1, A6, B, C, D, F1, and G and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) 01_AE, 02_AG, and 07_BC; sequences were sampled between 1980 and 2020 from 82 countries. HIV-1 diversified with a median of 1.82 amino acid substitutions per year in Env, 0.297 in Gag, and 0.779 in Pol. Yet, Env subtype B diversification plateaued post-2000. Pairwise diversity within subtypes and CRFs increased by 41.82% (range = 24.85%-54.41%) in Env, 56.93% (15.38%-89.16%) in Gag, and 46.12% (11.70%-70.57%) in Pol. Consensus sequences based on sequences sampled in each decade remained relatively stable over time. Similarly, at antibody epitope sites, only 0-8 residues that were minority variants became consensus over time in any subtype/CRF and only one known drug resistance mutation site differed from the reference (subtype G). The apparent contradiction between the fast diversification of HIV-1 and its limited adaptation illustrates that HIV-1 evolution is not directional and its consensus is at the intersection of millions of within-host selective processes occurring in a star-like manner. While a consensus sequence is a better representation of HIV-1 diversity than any individual sequence, consensus sequences have progressively become more distant from the circulating sequences they represent.

IMPORTANCE

Global surveillance of HIV-1 sequences is critical for designing relevant prophylactic and therapeutic interventions to infection. We designed an open-source platform, Hervé, for analyzing and visualizing the diversification dynamics of HIV-1 protein sequences. We characterized the evolution of over 12,000 HIV-1 Env, Gag, and Pol protein sequences from 1980-2020 and found that, despite a steady increase in intra-subtype and circulating recombinant form diversity, the most frequent residue at each site, i.e., the consensus, has varied only moderately.

Substitution Models of Protein Evolution with Selection on Enzymatic Activity

Substitution models of evolution are necessary for diverse evolutionary analyses including phylogenetic tree and ancestral sequence reconstructions. At the protein level, empirical substitution models are traditionally used due to their simplicity, but they ignore the variability of substitution patterns among protein sites. Next, in order to improve the realism of the modeling of protein evolution, a series of structurally constrained substitution models were presented, but still they usually ignore constraints on the protein activity. Here, we present a substitution model of protein evolution with selection on both protein structure and enzymatic activity, and that can be applied to phylogenetics. In particular, the model considers the binding affinity of the enzyme-substrate complex as well as structural constraints that include the flexibility of structural flaps, hydrogen bonds, amino acids backbone radius of gyration, and solvent-accessible surface area that are quantified through molecular dynamics simulations. We applied the model to the HIV-1 protease and evaluated it by phylogenetic likelihood in comparison with the best-fitting empirical substitution model and a structurally constrained substitution model that ignores the enzymatic activity. We found that accounting for selection on the protein activity improves the fitting of the modeled functional regions with the real observations, especially in data with high molecular identity, which recommends considering constraints on the protein activity in the development of substitution models of evolution.

Revisiting the origins of the Sobemovirus genus: A case for ancient origins of plant viruses

The discrepancy between short- and long-term rate estimates, known as the time-dependent rate phenomenon (TDRP), poses a challenge to extrapolating evolutionary rates over time and reconstructing evolutionary history of viruses. The TDRP reveals a decline in evolutionary rate estimates with the measurement timescale, explained empirically by a power-law rate decay, notably observed in animal and human viruses. A mechanistic evolutionary model, the Prisoner of War (PoW) model, has been proposed to address TDRP in viruses. Although TDRP has been studied in animal viruses, its impact on plant virus evolutionary history remains largely unexplored. Here, we investigated the consequences of TDRP in plant viruses by applying the PoW model to reconstruct the evolutionary history of sobemoviruses, plant pathogens with significant importance due to their impact on agriculture and plant health. Our analysis showed that the Sobemovirus genus dates back over four million years, indicating an ancient origin. We found evidence that supports deep host jumps to Poaceae, Fabaceae, and Solanaceae occurring between tens to hundreds of thousand years ago, followed by specialization. Remarkably, the TDRP-corrected evolutionary history of sobemoviruses was extended far beyond previous estimates that had suggested their emergence nearly 9,000 years ago, a time coinciding with the Neolithic period in the Near East. By incorporating sequences collected through metagenomic analyses, the resulting phylogenetic tree showcases increased genetic diversity, reflecting a deep history of sobemovirus species. We identified major radiation events beginning between 4,600 to 2,000 years ago, which aligns with the Neolithic period in various regions, suggesting a period of rapid diversification from then to the present. Our findings make a case for the possibility of deep evolutionary origins of plant viruses.

Infectious disease in the Pleistocene: Old friends or old foes?

The impact of endemic and epidemic disease on humans has traditionally been seen as a comparatively recent historical phenomenon associated with the Neolithisation of human groups, an increase in population size led by sedentarism, and increasing contact with domesticated animals as well as species occupying opportunistic symbiotic and ectosymbiotic relationships with humans. The orthodox approach is that Neolithisation created the conditions for increasing population size able to support a reservoir of infectious disease sufficient to act as selective pressure. This orthodoxy is the result of an overly simplistic reliance on skeletal data assuming that no skeletal lesions equated to a healthy individual, underpinned by the assumption that hunter-gatherer groups were inherently healthy while agricultural groups acted as infectious disease reservoirs. The work of van Blerkom, Am. J. Phys. Anthropol., vol. suppl 37 (2003), Wolfe et al., Nature, vol. 447 (2007) and Houldcroft and Underdown, Am. J. Phys. Anthropol., vol. 160, (2016) has changed this landscape by arguing that humans and pathogens have long been fellow travelers. The package of infectious diseases experienced by our ancient ancestors may not be as dissimilar to modern infectious diseases as was once believed. The importance of DNA, from ancient and modern sources, to the study of the antiquity of infectious disease, and its role as a selective pressure cannot be overstated. Here we consider evidence of ancient epidemic and endemic infectious diseases with inferences from modern and ancient human and hominin DNA, and from circulating and extinct pathogen genomes. We argue that the pandemics of the past are a vital tool to unlock the weapons needed to fight pandemics of the future.

Infectious diseases may have arrested the southward advance of microblades in Upper Palaeolithic East Asia

An unsolved archaeological puzzle of the East Asian Upper Palaeolithic is why the southward expansion of an innovative lithic technology represented by microblades stalled at the Qinling-Huaihe Line. It has been suggested that the southward migration of foragers with microblades stopped there, which is consistent with ancient DNA studies showing that populations to the north and south of this line had differentiated genetically by 19 000 years ago. Many infectious pathogens are believed to have been associated with hominins since the Palaeolithic, and zoonotic pathogens in particular are prevalent at lower latitudes, which may have produced a disease barrier. We propose a mathematical model to argue that mortality due to infectious diseases may have arrested the wave-of-advance of the technologically advantaged foragers from the north.

Ghosts of the past: Elemental composition, biosynthesis reactions and thermodynamic properties of Zeta P.2, Eta B.1.525, Theta P.3, Kappa B.1.617.1, Iota B.1.526, Lambda C.37 and Mu B.1.621 variants of SARS-CoV-2

From the perspectives of molecular biology, genetics and biothermodynamics, SARS-CoV-2 is the among the best characterized viruses. Research on SARS-CoV-2 has shed a new light onto driving forces and molecular mechanisms of viral evolution. This paper reports results on empirical formulas, biosynthesis reactions and thermodynamic properties of biosynthesis (multiplication) for the Zeta P.2, Eta B.1.525, Theta P.3, Kappa B.1.617.1, Iota B.1.526, Lambda C.37 and Mu B.1.621 variants of SARS-CoV-2. Thermodynamic analysis has shown that the physical driving forces for evolution of SARS-CoV-2 are Gibbs energy of biosynthesis and Gibbs energy of binding. The driving forces have led SARS-CoV-2 through the evolution process from the original Hu-1 to the newest variants in accordance with the expectations of the evolution theory.

The recency and geographical origins of the bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2

The emergence of SARS-CoV in 2002 and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 has led to increased sampling of related sarbecoviruses circulating primarily in horseshoe bats. These viruses undergo frequent recombination and exhibit spatial structuring across Asia. Employing recombination-aware phylogenetic inference on bat sarbecoviruses, we find that the closest-inferred bat virus ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 existed just ~1-3 years prior to their emergence in humans. Phylogeographic analyses examining the movement of related sarbecoviruses demonstrate that they traveled at similar rates to their horseshoe bat hosts and have been circulating for thousands of years in Asia. The closest-inferred bat virus ancestor of SARS-CoV likely circulated in western China, and that of SARS-CoV-2 likely circulated in a region comprising southwest China and northern Laos, both a substantial distance from where they emerged. This distance and recency indicate that the direct ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 could not have reached their respective sites of emergence via the bat reservoir alone. Our recombination-aware dating and phylogeographic analyses reveal a more accurate inference of evolutionary history than performing only whole-genome or single gene analyses. These results can guide future sampling efforts and demonstrate that viral genomic fragments extremely closely related to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 were circulating in horseshoe bats, confirming their importance as the reservoir species for SARS viruses.

The evolutionary history of hepaciviruses

In the search for natural reservoirs of hepatitis C virus (HCV), a broad diversity of non-human viruses within the Hepacivirus genus has been uncovered. However, the evolutionary dynamics that shaped the diversity and timescale of hepaciviruses evolution remain elusive. To gain further insights into the origins and evolution of this genus, we screened a large dataset of wild mammal samples (n = 1,672) from Africa and Asia, and generated 34 full-length hepacivirus genomes. Phylogenetic analysis of these data together with publicly available genomes emphasizes the importance of rodents as hepacivirus hosts and we identify 13 rodent species and 3 rodent genera (in Cricetidae and Muridae families) as novel hosts of hepaciviruses. Through co-phylogenetic analyses, we demonstrate that hepacivirus diversity has been affected by cross-species transmission events against the backdrop of detectable signal of virus-host co-divergence in the deep evolutionary history. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic multidimensional scaling approach, we explore the extent to which host relatedness and geographic distances have structured present-day hepacivirus diversity. Our results provide evidence for a substantial structuring of mammalian hepacivirus diversity by host as well as geography, with a somewhat more irregular diffusion process in geographic space. Finally, using a mechanistic model that accounts for substitution saturation, we provide the first formal estimates of the timescale of hepacivirus evolution and estimate the origin of the genus to be about 22 million years ago. Our results offer a comprehensive overview of the micro- and macroevolutionary processes that have shaped hepacivirus diversity and enhance our understanding of the long-term evolution of the Hepacivirus genus.

A billion years arms-race between viruses, virophages, and eukaryotes

Bamfordviruses are arguably the most diverse group of viruses infecting eukaryotes. They include the Nucleocytoplasmic Large DNA viruses (NCLDVs), virophages, adenoviruses, Mavericks and Polinton-like viruses. Two main hypotheses for their origins have been proposed: the 'nuclear-escape' and 'virophage-first' hypotheses. The nuclear-escape hypothesis proposes an endogenous, Maverick-like ancestor which escaped from the nucleus and gave rise to adenoviruses and NCLDVs. In contrast, the virophage-first hypothesis proposes that NCLDVs coevolved with protovirophages; Mavericks then evolved from virophages that became endogenous, with adenoviruses escaping from the nucleus at a later stage. Here, we test the predictions made by both models and consider alternative evolutionary scenarios. We use a data set of the four core virion proteins sampled across the diversity of the lineage, together with Bayesian and maximum-likelihood hypothesis-testing methods, and estimate rooted phylogenies. We find strong evidence that adenoviruses and NCLDVs are not sister groups, and that Mavericks and Mavirus acquired the rve-integrase independently. We also found strong support for a monophyletic group of virophages (family Lavidaviridae) and a most likely root placed between virophages and the other lineages. Our observations support alternatives to the nuclear-escape scenario and a billion years evolutionary arms-race between virophages and NCLDVs.

A comprehensive survey of bat sarbecoviruses across China in relation to the origins of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 have been thought to originate from bats. In this study, we screened pharyngeal and anal swabs from 13 064 bats collected between 2016 and 2021 at 703 locations across China for sarbecoviruses, covering almost all known southern hotspots, and found 146 new bat sarbecoviruses. Phylogenetic analyses of all available sarbecoviruses show that there are three different lineages-L1 as SARS-CoV-related CoVs (SARSr-CoVs), L2 as SARS-CoV-2-related CoVs (SC2r-CoVs) and novel L-R (recombinants of L1 and L2)-present in Rhinolophus pusillus bats, in the mainland of China. Among the 146 sequences, only four are L-Rs. Importantly, none belong in the L2 lineage, indicating that circulation of SC2r-CoVs in China might be very limited. All remaining 142 sequences belong in the L1 lineage, of which YN2020B-G shares the highest overall sequence identity with SARS-CoV (95.8%). The observation suggests endemic circulations of SARSr-CoVs, but not SC2r-CoVs, in bats in China. Geographic analysis of the collection sites in this study, together with all published reports, indicates that SC2r-CoVs may be mainly present in bats of Southeast Asia, including the southern border of Yunnan province, but absent in all other regions within China. In contrast, SARSr-CoVs appear to have broader geographic distribution, with the highest genetic diversity and sequence identity to human sarbecoviruses along the southwest border of China. Our data provide the rationale for further extensive surveys in broader geographical regions within, and beyond, Southeast Asia in order to find the most recent ancestors of human sarbecoviruses.

Geographic Structuring and Divergence Time Frame of Monkeypox Virus in the Endemic Region

BACKGROUND

Monkeypox is an emerging zoonosis endemic to Central and West Africa. Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is genetically structured in 2 major clades (clades 1 and 2/3), but its evolution is poorly explored.

METHODS

We retrieved MPXV genomes from public repositories and we analyzed geographic patterns using STRUCTURE. Molecular dating was performed using a using a Bayesian approach.

RESULTS

We show that the population transmitted in West Africa (clades 2/3) experienced limited drift. Conversely, clade 1 (transmitted in the Congo Basin) possibly underwent a bottleneck or founder effect. Depending on the model used, we estimated that the 2 clades separated ∼560-860 (highest posterior density: 450-960) years ago, a period characterized by expansions and contractions of rainforest areas, possibly creating the ecological conditions for the MPXV reservoir(s) to migrate. In the Congo Basin, MPXV diversity is characterized by 4 subpopulations that show no geographic structuring. Conversely, clades 2/3 are spatially structured with 2 populations located West and East of the Dahomey Gap.

CONCLUSIONS

The distinct histories of the 2 clades may derive from differences in MPXV ecology in West and Central Africa.

Analysis of variola virus molecular evolution suggests an old origin of the virus consistent with historical records

Archaeovirology efforts provided a rich portrait of the evolutionary history of variola virus (VARV, the cause of smallpox), which was characterized by lineage extinctions and a relatively recent origin of the virus as a human pathogen (~1700 years ago, ya). This contrasts with historical records suggesting the presence of smallpox as early as 3500 ya. By performing an analysis of ancestry components in modern, historic, and ancient genomes, we unveil the progressive drifting of VARV lineages from a common ancestral population and we show that a small proportion of Viking Age ancestry persisted until the 18th century. After the split of the P-I and P-II lineages, the former experienced a severe bottleneck. With respect to the emergence of VARV as a human pathogen, we revise time estimates by accounting for the time-dependent rate phenomenon. We thus estimate that VARV emerged earlier than 3800 ya, supporting its presence in ancient societies, as pockmarked Egyptian mummies suggest.

Disease-causing human viruses: novelty and legacy

About 270 viruses are known to infect humans. Some of these viruses have been known for centuries, whereas others have recently emerged. During their evolutionary history, humans have moved out of Africa to populate the world. In historical times, human migrations resulted in the displacement of large numbers of people. All these events determined the movement and dispersal of human-infecting viruses. Technological advances have resulted in the characterization of the genetic variability of human viruses, both in extant and in archaeological samples. Field studies investigated the diversity of viruses hosted by other animals. In turn, these advances provided insight into the evolutionary history of human viruses back in time and defined the key events through which they originated and spread.

Endogenous Viral Elements in Shrew Genomes Provide Insights into Pestivirus Ancient History

As viral genomic imprints in host genomes, endogenous viral elements (EVEs) shed light on the deep evolutionary history of viruses, ancestral host ranges, and ancient viral-host interactions. In addition, they may provide crucial information for calibrating viral evolutionary timescales. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive in silico screening of a large data set of available mammalian genomes for EVEs deriving from members of the viral family Flaviviridae, an important group of viruses including well-known human pathogens, such as Zika, dengue, or hepatitis C viruses. We identified two novel pestivirus-like EVEs in the reference genome of the Indochinese shrew (Crocidura indochinensis). Homologs of these novel EVEs were subsequently detected in vivo by molecular detection and sequencing in 27 shrew species, including 26 species representing a wide distribution within the Crocidurinae subfamily and one in the Soricinae subfamily on different continents. Based on this wide distribution, we estimate that the integration event occurred before the last common ancestor of the subfamily, about 10.8 million years ago, attesting to an ancient origin of pestiviruses and Flaviviridae in general. Moreover, we provide the first description of Flaviviridae-derived EVEs in mammals even though the family encompasses numerous mammal-infecting members. This also suggests that shrews were past and perhaps also current natural reservoirs of pestiviruses. Taken together, our results expand the current known Pestivirus host range and provide novel insight into the ancient evolutionary history of pestiviruses and the Flaviviridae family in general.

Phylogeographic analysis reveals an ancient East African origin of human herpes simplex virus 2 dispersal out-of-Africa

Human herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) is a ubiquitous, slowly evolving DNA virus. HSV-2 has two primary lineages, one found in West and Central Africa and the other found worldwide. Competing hypotheses have been proposed to explain how HSV-2 migrated out-of-Africa (i)HSV-2 followed human migration out-of-Africa 50-100 thousand years ago, or (ii)HSV-2 migrated via the trans-Atlantic slave trade 150-500 years ago. Limited geographic sampling and lack of molecular clock signal has precluded robust comparison. Here, we analyze newly sequenced HSV-2 genomes from Africa to resolve geography and timing of divergence events within HSV-2. Phylogeographic analysis consistently places the ancestor of worldwide dispersal in East Africa, though molecular clock is too slow to be detected using available data. Rates 4.2 × 10-8-5.6 × 10-8 substitutions/site/year, consistent with previous age estimates, suggest a worldwide dispersal 22-29 thousand years ago. Thus, HSV-2 likely migrated with humans from East Africa and dispersed after the Last Glacial Maximum.

Detection of Ancient Viruses and Long-Term Viral Evolution

The COVID-19 outbreak has reminded us of the importance of viral evolutionary studies as regards comprehending complex viral evolution and preventing future pandemics. A unique approach to understanding viral evolution is the use of ancient viral genomes. Ancient viruses are detectable in various archaeological remains, including ancient people's skeletons and mummified tissues. Those specimens have preserved ancient viral DNA and RNA, which have been vigorously analyzed in the last few decades thanks to the development of sequencing technologies. Reconstructed ancient pathogenic viral genomes have been utilized to estimate the past pandemics of pathogenic viruses within the ancient human population and long-term evolutionary events. Recent studies revealed the existence of non-pathogenic viral genomes in ancient people's bodies. These ancient non-pathogenic viruses might be informative for inferring their relationships with ancient people's diets and lifestyles. Here, we reviewed the past and ongoing studies on ancient pathogenic and non-pathogenic viruses and the usage of ancient viral genomes to understand their long-term viral evolution.

Dating the Emergence of Human Endemic Coronaviruses

Four endemic coronaviruses infect humans and cause mild symptoms. Because previous analyses were based on a limited number of sequences and did not control for effects that affect molecular dating, we re-assessed the timing of endemic coronavirus emergence. After controlling for recombination, selective pressure, and molecular clock model, we obtained similar tMRCA (time to the most recent common ancestor) estimates for the four coronaviruses, ranging from 72 (HCoV-229E) to 54 (HCoV-NL63) years ago. The split times of HCoV-229E and HCoV-OC43 from camel alphacoronavirus and bovine coronavirus were dated ~268 and ~99 years ago. The split times of HCoV-HKU1 and HCoV-NL63 could not be calculated, as their zoonoticic sources are unknown. To compare the timing of coronavirus emergence to that of another respiratory virus, we recorded the occurrence of influenza pandemics since 1500. Although there is no clear relationship between pandemic occurrence and human population size, the frequency of influenza pandemics seems to intensify starting around 1700, which corresponds with the initial phase of exponential increase of human population and to the emergence of HCoV-229E. The frequency of flu pandemics in the 19th century also suggests that the concurrence of HCoV-OC43 emergence and the Russian flu pandemic may be due to chance.

Purifying Selection Determines the Short-Term Time Dependency of Evolutionary Rates in SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 Influenza

High-throughput sequencing enables rapid genome sequencing during infectious disease outbreaks and provides an opportunity to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in near real-time. One difficulty of undertaking evolutionary analyses over short timescales is the dependency of the inferred evolutionary parameters on the timespan of observation. Crucially, there are an increasing number of molecular clock analyses using external evolutionary rate priors to infer evolutionary parameters. However, it is not clear which rate prior is appropriate for a given time window of observation due to the time-dependent nature of evolutionary rate estimates. Here, we characterize the molecular evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza during the first 12 months of their respective pandemics. We use Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate the dates of emergence, evolutionary rates, and growth rates of SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 over time and investigate how varying sampling window and data set sizes affect the accuracy of parameter estimation. We further use a generalized McDonald-Kreitman test to estimate the number of segregating nonneutral sites over time. We find that the inferred evolutionary parameters for both pandemics are time dependent, and that the inferred rates of SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 decline by ∼50% and ∼100%, respectively, over the course of 1 year. After at least 4 months since the start of sequence sampling, inferred growth rates and emergence dates remain relatively stable and can be inferred reliably using a logistic growth coalescent model. We show that the time dependency of the mean substitution rate is due to elevated substitution rates at terminal branches which are 2-4 times higher than those of internal branches for both viruses. The elevated rate at terminal branches is strongly correlated with an increasing number of segregating nonneutral sites, demonstrating the role of purifying selection in generating the time dependency of evolutionary parameters during pandemics.

Zoonotic disease and virome diversity in bats

The emergence of zoonotic viral diseases in humans commonly reflects exposure to mammalian wildlife. Bats (order Chiroptera) are arguably the most important mammalian reservoir for zoonotic viruses, with notable examples including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronaviruses 1 and 2, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, henipaviruses and lyssaviruses. Herein, we outline our current knowledge on the diversity of bat viromes, particularly through the lens of metagenomic next-generation sequencing and in the context of disease emergence. A key conclusion is that although bats harbour abundant virus diversity, the vast majority of bat viruses have not emerged to cause disease in new hosts such that bats are better regarded as critical but endangered components of global ecosystems.

Bioinformatics of virus taxonomy: foundations and tools for developing sequence-based hierarchical classification

The genome sequence is the only characteristic readily obtainable for all known viruses, underlying the growing role of comparative genomics in organizing knowledge about viruses in a systematic evolution-aware way, known as virus taxonomy. Overseen by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV), development of virus taxonomy involves taxa demarcation at 15 ranks of a hierarchical classification, often in host-specific manner. Outside the ICTV remit, researchers assess fitting numerous unclassified viruses into the established taxa. They employ different metrics of virus clustering, basing on conserved domain(s), separation of viruses in rooted phylogenetic trees and pair-wise distance space. Computational approaches differ further in respect to methodology, number of ranks considered, sensitivity to uneven virus sampling, and visualization of results. Advancing and using computational tools will be critical for improving taxa demarcation across the virosphere and resolving rank origins in research that may also inform experimental virology.