Modelling soil nitrogen: the MAGIC model with nitrogen retention linked to carbon turnover using decomposer dynamics

Carbon and nutrient pools and fluxes in unmanaged mountain Norway spruce forests, and losses after natural tree dieback

Forest areas infected by insects are increasing in Europe and North America due to accelerating climate change. A 2000-2020 mass budget study on major elements (C, N, P, Ca, Mg, K) in the atmosphere-plant-soil-water systems of two unmanaged catchments enabled us to evaluate changes in pools and fluxes related to tree dieback and long-term accumulation/losses during the post-glacial period. A bark-beetle outbreak killed >75 % of all trees in a mature mountain spruce forest in one catchment and all dead biomass was left on site. A similar forest in a nearby catchment was only marginally affected. We observed that: (1) the long-term (millennial) C and N accumulation in soils averaged 10-22 and 0.5-1.1 kg ha-1 yr-1, respectively, while losses of Ca, Mg, and K from soils ranged from 0.1 to 2.6 kg ha-1 yr-1. (2) Only <0.8 % and <1.5 % of the respective total C and N fluxes entering the soil annually from vegetation were permanently stored in soils. (3) The post-disturbance decomposition of dead tree biomass reduced vegetation element pools from 27 % (C) to 73 % (P) between 2004 and 2019. (4) Tree dieback decreased net atmospheric element inputs to the impacted catchment, and increased the leaching of all elements and gaseous losses of C (∼2.3 t ha-1 yr-1) and N (∼14 kg ha-1 yr-1). The disturbed catchment became a net C source, but ∼50 % of the N released from dead biomass accumulated in soils. (5) Despite the severe forest disturbance, the dissolved losses of Ca and Mg represented 52-58 % of their leaching from intact stands during the peaking atmospheric acidification from 1970 to 1990. (6) Disturbance-related net leaching of P, Ca, Mg, and K were 4, 69, 16, and 114 kg ha-1, respectively, which represented 7-38 % of the losses potentially related to sanitary logging and subsequent removal of the aboveground tree biomass.

Forest growth responds more to air pollution than soil acidification

The forests of central Europe have undergone remarkable transitions in the past 40 years as air quality has improved dramatically. Retrospective analysis of Norway spruce (Picea abies) tree rings in the Czech Republic shows that air pollution (e.g. SO2 concentrations, high acidic deposition to the forest canopy) plays a dominant role in driving forest health. Extensive soil acidification occurred in the highly polluted "Black Triangle" in Central Europe, and upper mineral soils are still acidified. In contrast, acidic atmospheric deposition declined by 80% and atmospheric SO2 concentration by 90% between the late 1980s and 2010s. In this study we oserved that annual tree ring width (TRW) declined in the 1970s and subsequently recovered in the 1990s, tracking SO2 concentrations closely. Furthermore, recovery of TRW was similar in unlimed and limed stands. Despite large increases in soil base saturation, as well as soil pH, as a result of repeated liming starting in 1981, TRW growth was similar in limed and unlimed plots. TRW recovery was interrupted in 1996 when highly acidic rime (originating from more pronounced decline of alkaline dust than SO2 from local power plants) injured the spruce canopy, but recovered soon to the pre-episode growth. Across the long-term site history, changes in soil chemistry (pH, base saturation, Bc/Al soil solution ratio) cannot explain observed changes in TRW at the two study sites where we tracked soil chemistry. Instead, statistically significant recovery in TRW is linked to the trajectory of annual SO2 concentrations or sulfur deposition at all three stands.

Disruptions and re-establishment of the calcium-bicarbonate equilibrium in freshwaters

During recent decades, increasing anthropogenic activities have affected natural ionic composition, including the strongest and most common relationship between ionic concentrations in the majority of natural global freshwaters, i.e., the Ca²⁺-ANC (acid neutralizing capacity) equilibrium. Using long-term monitoring data and MAGIC modelling, we evaluated effects of major present environmental stressors (synthetic fertilizers, liming, acidic deposition, forest disturbances, and climate change) on the Ca²⁺-ANC equilibrium. We evaluated the effects for three different types of terrestrial ecosystems, a circumneutral lowland agricultural catchment, two acid sensitive mountain forest catchments differing in forest health, and one acid sensitive alpine catchment. All catchments are in a region with the world-largest changes in fertilizing rates and acidic deposition in the 20^th century, with increasing impacts until the late 1980s, and their subsequent abrupt, dramatic decreases. These strong changes resulted in a substantial disruption, followed by continuing re-establishment of the Ca²⁺-ANC relationship in all study waters. The shape of the disruption and the following re-establishment of its new value were dependent on the intensity, duration, and combination of stressors, as well as on catchment characteristics (bedrock composition, soil amount and composition, vegetation status, and hydrology). We conclude that a new equilibrium may deviate from its natural value due to the (1) legacy of fertilizing, acidic deposition and liming, affecting the soil Ca²⁺ pools, (2) forest disturbances and management practices, and (3) climate change.

Spatial lag effect of aridity and nitrogen deposition on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) damage

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is a widespread tolerant forest tree-species; however, its adaptability to environmental change differs among sites with various buffering capacity. In this study, we compared the spatial effects of aridity index (AI) and nitrogen deposition (ND) on biomass density in natural and man-made pine stands of differing soil fertility using geographically weighted multiple lag regression. Soil fertility was defined using soil series as zonal trophic (27.9%), acidic (48.2%), gleyed (15.2%) and as azonal exposed (2.5%), maple (2.4%), ash (0.8%), wet (2.1%) and peat (0.9%) under pine stands in the Czech Republic (Central Europe; 4290.5 km²; 130-1298 m a.s.l.). Annual AI and ND in every pine stand were estimated by intersection between raster and vector from 1 × 1 km grid for years 2000, 2003, 2007 and 2010 of severe non-specific forest damage spread. Biomass density was obtained from a MODIS 250 × 250 m raster using the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) for years 2000-2015, with a decrease in EVI indicating non-specific damage. Environmental change was assessed by comparing predictor values at EVI time t and t+λ. Non-specific damage was registered over 51.9% of total forest area. Less than 8.8% of damaged stands were natural and the rest (91.2%) of damaged stands were man-made. Pure pine stands were more damaged than mixed. The ND effect prevailed up to 2007, while AI dominated later. Temporal increasing ND effect under AI effectiveness led to the most significant pine stand damage in 2008 and 2014. Predictors from 2000 to 2007 afflicted 58.5% of non-specifically damaged stands at R² 0.09-0.76 (median 0.38), but from 2000 to 2010 afflicted 57.1% of the stands at R² 0.16-0.75 (median 0.40). The most damaged stands occurred on acidic sites. Mixed forest and sustainable management on natural sites seem as effective remediation reducing damage by ND.

Changes in microclimate and hydrology in an unmanaged mountain forest catchment after insect-induced tree dieback

Hydrological and microclimatic changes after insect-induced tree dieback were evaluated in an unmanaged central European mountain (Plešné, PL) forest and compared to climate-related changes in a similar, but almost intact (Čertovo, CT) control forest during two decades. From 2004 to 2008, 93% of Norway spruce trees were killed by a bark beetle outbreak, and the entire PL area was left to subsequent natural development. We observed that (1) climate-related increases in daily mean air temperature (2 m above ground) were 1.6 and 0.5 °C on an annual and growing season basis, respectively, and an increase in daily mean soil temperature (5 cm below ground) was 0.9 °C during growing seasons at the CT control from 2004 to 2017; (2) daily mean soil and air temperatures increased by 0.7-1.2 °C on average more at the disturbed PL plots than in the healthy forest; (3) water input to soils increased by 20% but decreased by 17% at elevations of 1122 and 1334 m, respectively, due to decreased occult deposition to, and evaporation from, canopies after tree dieback; (4) soil moisture was 5% higher on average (but up to 17% higher in dry summer months) in the upper PL soil horizons for 5-6 years following the tree dieback; (5) run-off from the PL forest ~6% (~70 mm yr^-1) increased relatively to the CT forest (but without extreme peak flows and erosion events) after tree dieback due to the ceased transpiration of dead trees and elevated water input to soils; and (6) relative air humidity was 4% lower on average at disturbed plots than beneath living trees. The rapid tree regeneration during the decade following tree dieback resulted in a complete recovery in soil moisture, a slow recovery of discharge and air humidity, but a still insignificant recovery in air and soil temperatures.

Experimental addition of nitrogen to a whole forest ecosystem at Gårdsjön, Sweden (NITREX): Nitrate leaching during 26 years of treatment

Chronic high deposition of nitrogen (N) to forest ecosystems can lead to increased leaching of inorganic N to surface waters, enhancing acidification and eutrophication. For 26 years nitrogen has been added as ammonium nitrate (NH₄NO₃) at 40 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1 to a whole forested catchment ecosystem at Gårdsjön, Sweden, to experimentally simulate the transition from a N-limited to N-rich state. Over the first 10 years of treatment there was an increasing amount of nitrate (NO₃^-) and to a lesser extent ammonium (NH₄⁺) lost in runoff, but then N leaching stabilised, and for the subsequent 16 years the fraction of N added lost in runoff remained at 9%. NO₃^- concentrations in runoff were low in the summer during the first years of treatment, but now are high throughout the year. High frequency sampling showed that peaks in NO₃^- concentrations generally occurred with high discharge, and were enhanced if high discharge coincided with occasions of N addition. Approximately 50% of the added N has gone to the soil. The added N is equivalent to 140 years of ambient N deposition. At current ambient levels of N deposition there thus appears to be no immediate risk of N saturation at this coniferous forest ecosystem, and by inference to other such N-limited forests in Scandinavia.

Simulating carbon capture by enhanced weathering with croplands: an overview of key processes highlighting areas of future model development

Enhanced weathering (EW) aims to amplify a natural sink for CO2 by incorporating powdered silicate rock with high reactive surface area into agricultural soils. The goal is to achieve rapid dissolution of minerals and release of alkalinity with accompanying dissolution of CO2 into soils and drainage waters. EW could counteract phosphorus limitation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in tropical soils, and soil acidification, a common agricultural problem studied with numerical process models over several decades. Here, we review the processes leading to soil acidification in croplands and how the soil weathering CO2 sink is represented in models. Mathematical models capturing the dominant processes and human interventions governing cropland soil chemistry and GHG emissions neglect weathering, while most weathering models neglect agricultural processes. We discuss current approaches to modelling EW and highlight several classes of model having the potential to simulate EW in croplands. Finally, we argue for further integration of process knowledge in mathematical models to capture feedbacks affecting both longer-term CO2 consumption and crop growth and yields.

Long-term predictions of ecosystem acidification and recovery

This paper considers the long-term (500year) consequences of continued acid deposition, using a small forested catchment in S. England as an example. The MAGIC acidification model was calibrated to the catchment using data for the year 2000, and run backwards in time for 200years, and forwards for 500. Validation data for model predictions were provided by various stream and soil measurements made between 1977 and 2013. The model hindcast suggests that pre-industrial stream conditions were very different from those measured in 2000. Acid Neutralising Capacity (ANC) was +150μeqL(-1) and pH7.1: there was little nitrate (NO3). By the year 2000, acid deposition had reduced the pH to 4.2 and ANC to c. -100μeqL(-1), and NO3 was increasing in the stream. The future state of the catchment was modelled using actual deposition reductions up to 2013, and then based on current emission reduction commitments. This leads to substantial recovery, to pH6.1, ANC +43μeqL(-1), though it takes c. 250years. Then, however, steady acidification resumes, due to continued N accumulation in the catchment and leaching of NO3. Soil data collected using identical methods in 1978 and 2013 show that MAGIC correctly predicts the direction of change, but the observed data show more extreme changes - reasons for this are discussed. Three cycles of forest growth were modelled - this reduces NO3 output substantially during the active growth phase, and increases stream pH and ANC, but acidifies the soil which continues to accumulate nitrogen. The assumptions behind these results are discussed, and it is concluded that unmanaged ecosystems will not return to a pre-industrial state in the foreseeable future.

Pollution control enhanced spruce growth in the "Black Triangle" near the Czech-Polish border

Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands in certain areas of Central Europe have experienced substantial dieback since the 1970s. Understanding the reasons for this decline and reexamining the response of forests to acid deposition reduction remains challenging because of a lack of long and well-replicated tree-ring width chronologies. Here, spruce from a subalpine area heavily affected by acid deposition (from both sulfur and nitrogen compounds) is evaluated. Tree-ring width measurements from 98 trees between 1000 and 1350m above sea level (a.s.l.) reflected significant May-July temperature signals. Since the 1970s, acid deposition has reduced the growth-climate relationship. Efficient pollution control together with a warmer but not drier climate most likely caused the increased growth of spruce stands in this region, the so-called "Black Triangle," in the 1990s.

Modelling inorganic nitrogen in runoff: Seasonal dynamics at four European catchments as simulated by the MAGIC model

Nitrogen (N) deposition is globally considered as a major threat to ecosystem functioning with important consequences for biodiversity, carbon sequestration and N retention. Lowered N retention as manifested by elevated concentrations of inorganic N in surface waters indicates ecosystem N saturation. Nitrate (NO3) concentrations in runoff from semi-natural catchments typically show an annual cycle, with low concentrations during the summer and high concentrations during the winter. Process-oriented catchment-scale biogeochemical models provide tools for simulation and testing changes in surface water and soil chemistry in response to changes in sulphur (S) and N deposition and climate. Here we examine the ability of MAGIC to simulate the observed monthly as well as the long-term trends over 10-35 years of inorganic N concentrations in streamwaters from four monitored headwater catchments in Europe: Čertovo Lake in the Czech Republic, Afon Gwy at Plynlimon, UK, Storgama, Norway and G2 NITREX at Gårdsjön, Sweden. The balance between N inputs (mineralization+deposition) and microbial immobilization and plant uptake defined the seasonal pattern of NO3 leaching. N mineralization and N uptake were assumed to be governed by temperature, described by Q10 functions. Seasonality in NO3 concentration and fluxes were satisfactorily reproduced at three sites (R2 of predicted vs. modelled concentrations varied between 0.32 and 0.47 and for fluxes between 0.36 and 0.88). The model was less successful in reproducing the observed NO3 concentrations and fluxes at the experimental N addition site G2 NITREX (R2=0.01 and R2=0.19, respectively). In contrast to the three monitored sites, Gårdsjön is in a state of change from a N-limited to N-rich ecosystem due to 20 years of experimental N addition. At Gårdsjön the measured NO3 seasonal pattern did not follow typical annual cycle for reasons which are not well understood, and thus not simulated by the model.

CAPSULE

The MAGIC model is able to simulate NO3 leaching on a monthly as well as an annual basis, and thus to reproduce the seasonal and short-term variations in N dynamics.

Assessing recovery from acidification of European surface waters in the year 2010: evaluation of projections made with the MAGIC model in 1995

In 1999 we used the MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) model to project acidification of acid-sensitive European surface waters in the year 2010, given implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). A total of 202 sites in 10 regions in Europe were studied. These forecasts can now be compared with measurements for the year 2010, to give a "ground truth" evaluation of the model. The prerequisite for this test is that the actual sulfur and nitrogen deposition decreased from 1995 to 2010 by the same amount as that used to drive the model forecasts; this was largely the case for sulfur, but less so for nitrogen, and the simulated surface water [NO3(-)] reflected this difference. For most of the sites, predicted surface water recovery from acidification for the year 2010 is very close to the actual recovery observed from measured data, as recovery is predominantly driven by reductions in sulfur deposition. Overall these results show that MAGIC successfully predicts future water chemistry given known changes in acid deposition.

Sensitivity analyses of MAGIC modelled predictions of future impacts of whole-tree harvest on soil calcium supply and stream acid neutralizing capacity

Forest biofuel is a main provider of energy in Sweden and the market is expected to grow even further in the future. Removal of logging residues via harvest can lead to short-term acidification but the long-term effects are largely unknown. The objectives of this study were to 1) model the long-term effect of whole-tree harvest (WTH) on soil and stream water acidity and 2) perform sensitivity analyses by varying the amounts of logging residues, calcium (Ca(2+)) concentrations in tree biomass and site productivity in nine alternate scenarios. Data from three Swedish forested catchments and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) were used to simulate changes in forest soil exchangeable Ca(2+) pools and stream water acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) at Gammtratten, Kindla and Aneboda. Large depletions in soil Ca(2+) supply and a reversal of the positive trend in stream ANC were predicted for all three sites after WTH. However, the magnitude of impact on stream ANC varied depending on site and the concentration of mobile strong acid anions. Contrary to common beliefs, the largest decrease in modelled ANC was observed at the well-buffered site Gammtratten. The effects at Kindla and Aneboda were much more limited and not large enough to offset the general recovery from acidification. Varying the tree biomass Ca(2+) concentrations exerted the largest impact on modelled outcome. Site productivity was the second most important variable whereas changing biomass amounts left on site only marginally affected the results. The outcome from the sensitivity analyses pointed in the same direction of change as in the base scenario, except for Kindla where soil Ca(2+) pools were predicted to be replenished under a given set of input data. The reliability of modelled outcome would increase by using site-specific Ca(2+) concentrations in tree biomass and field determined identification of site productivity.

Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling

Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality.

Trends in atmospheric deposition fluxes of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests

We present the temporal trends and spatial changes of deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests based on records from long-term monitoring. A statistically significant trend for sulphur was detected at most of the sites measuring for wet, dry, and total deposition fluxes and at many of these the trend was also present for the period after 2000. The spatial pattern of the changes in sulphur deposition flux between 1995 and 2011 shows the decrease over the entire forested area in a wide range of 18.1-0.2 g m(-2) year(-1) with the most pronounced improvement in formerly most impacted regions. Nitrogen still represents a considerable stress in many areas. The value of nitrogen deposition flux of 1 g m(-2) year(-1) is exceeded over a significant portion of the country. On an equivalent basis, the ion ratios of NO3(-)/SO4(2-) and NH4(+)/SO4(2-) in precipitation show significantly increasing trends in time similarly to those of pH.

Air-pollution emission control in China: impacts on soil acidification recovery and constraints due to drought

The Chinese government has established compulsory targets to reduce sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by 8% and 10%, respectively, during 2010-2015. In this study, the effect of the policy was evaluated by predicting the recovery of acidified forest soil in Chongqing, an area severely impacted by acid rain in southwest China. Since precipitation has decreased significantly in this area in recent years, the impact of drought on soil acidification was also considered. A dynamic acidification model, MAGIC, was used to predict future trends in soil chemistry under different scenarios for deposition reduction as well as drought. We found that the current regulation of SO2 emission abatement did not significantly increase soil water pH values, the Ca2+ to Al3+ molar ratio (Ca/Al), or soil base saturation to the level of 2000 before 2050. NOx emission control would have less of an effect on acidification recovery, while emission reduction of particulate matter could offset the benefits of SO2 reduction by greatly decreasing the deposition of base cations, particularly Ca(2+). Continuous droughts in the future might also delay acidification recovery. Therefore, more stringent SO2 emission control should be implemented to facilitate the recovery of seriously acidified areas in China.

Factors controlling the export of nitrogen from agricultural land in a large central European catchment during 1900-2010

Using an empirical model, we quantified the nitrogen (N) export from agricultural land in a large central European catchment (upper Vltava river, Czech Republic, about 13,000 km(2)) over the 1959-2010 period. The catchment witnessed a rapid socio-economic shift from a planned to a market economy in the 1990s, resulting in an abrupt (~50%) reduction in N fertilization rates at otherwise relatively stable land-use practices. This large-scale "experiment" enabled disentangling and quantification of individual effects of N fertilization and drainage on N leaching. The model is based on a two-step regression between annual N export and three independent variables: (i) annual average discharge in the first step and (ii) net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (NANI) and proportion of drained agricultural land in the second step. Results show that N export was more related to mineralization of soil organic N pools due to drainage and tillage than to external N sources (NANI). The model, together with other reconstructed N sources in the catchment (leaching from forests, waste waters, and atmospheric deposition) and extrapolated back to 1900, explained 77% of the observed variability in N concentrations in the Vltava river during the 1900-2010 period.