Meta-analysis of ATRIA versus CHA2DS2-VASc for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation

Systemic infarcts among patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF)-associated thromboembolic complications outside of ischemic strokes has not been thoroughly elucidated.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiology of AF-associated systemic infarcts and relevant interactions by sex and race/ethnicity.

METHODS

Using the Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development, we performed a longitudinal analysis of patients aged ≥18 years who received ambulatory surgery, emergency, or inpatient medical care in California between 2005 and 2015. We determined the distribution of infarct locations and risks of systemic infarcts for patients with AF. Interaction analyses by sex and race/ethnicity were conducted.

RESULTS

Of 1,321,694 patients with AF, the average annual rate of systemic infarct was 2.1% ± 0.18% compared with 0.56% ± 0.06% in the 22,944,488 patients without AF. The increased frequency of these infarcts was observed for every body area investigated. After adjustment for potential confounders and mediators, patients with AF experienced a 45% increased risk of a systemic infarct (hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.44-1.47; P < .001). Women, Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics each exhibited a statistically significant heightened relative risk of systemic infarcts in the presence of AF.

CONCLUSION

AF increases the risk of infarcts throughout the body. Susceptibility to these systemic infarcts varies by sex and race/ethnicity in patterns similar to differential risks for stroke. The presence of a systemic infarct in the absence of a clear cause should raise suspicion for AF, and the potential benefits of AF prevention and anticoagulation should be considered beyond only infarcts to the brain.

2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines

AIM

The "2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation" provides recommendations to guide clinicians in the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted from May 12, 2022, to November 3, 2022, encompassing studies, reviews, and other evidence conducted on human subjects that were published in English from PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline. Additional relevant studies, published through November 2022, during the guideline writing process, were also considered by the writing committee and added to the evidence tables, where appropriate.

STRUCTURE

Atrial fibrillation is the most sustained common arrhythmia, and its incidence and prevalence are increasing in the United States and globally. Recommendations from the "2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" and the "2019 AHA/ACC/HRS Focused Update of the 2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" have been updated with new evidence to guide clinicians. In addition, new recommendations addressing atrial fibrillation and thromboembolic risk assessment, anticoagulation, left atrial appendage occlusion, atrial fibrillation catheter or surgical ablation, and risk factor modification and atrial fibrillation prevention have been developed.

2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines

AIM

The "2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" provides recommendations to guide clinicians in the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted from May 12, 2022, to November 3, 2022, encompassing studies, reviews, and other evidence conducted on human subjects that were published in English from PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline. Additional relevant studies, published through November 2022, during the guideline writing process, were also considered by the writing committee and added to the evidence tables, where appropriate.

STRUCTURE

Atrial fibrillation is the most sustained common arrhythmia, and its incidence and prevalence are increasing in the United States and globally. Recommendations from the "2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" and the "2019 AHA/ACC/HRS Focused Update of the 2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" have been updated with new evidence to guide clinicians. In addition, new recommendations addressing atrial fibrillation and thromboembolic risk assessment, anticoagulation, left atrial appendage occlusion, atrial fibrillation catheter or surgical ablation, and risk factor modification and atrial fibrillation prevention have been developed.

A nomogram to predict ventricular thrombus in dilated cardiomyopathy patients

BACKGROUND

VT (Ventricular Thrombus) is a serious complication of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Our goal is to develop a nomogram for personalized prediction of incident VT in DCM patients.

METHODS

1267 patients (52.87 ± 11.75 years old, 73.8% male) were analyzed retrospectively from January 01, 2015, to December 31, 2020. A nomogram model for VT risk assessment was established using minimum absolute contraction and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and its effectiveness was validated by internal guidance. The model was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). We compared the performance in predicting VT between nomogram and CHA2DS2, CHA2DS2- VASc or ATRIA by AUC, akaike information criterion (AIC), bayesian information criterion (BIC), net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination index (IDI).

RESULTS

89 patients (7.02%) experienced VT. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), uric acid (UA), N-terminal precursor B-type diuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and D-dimer (DD) were important independent predictors of VT. The nomogram model correctly separates patients with and without VT, with an optimistic C score of 0.92 (95%CI: 0.90-0.94) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 = 11.51, P = 0.12). Our model showed improved prediction of VT compared to CHA2DS2, CHA2DS2-VASc or ATRIA (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The novel nomogram demonstrated better than presenting scores and showed an improvement in predicting VT in DCM patients.

The Relationship of Coronary Thrombus Burden and Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) Score in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

The anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation (ATRIA) score is associated with adverse cardiovascular events. However, its relationship with coronary thrombus burden is unclear. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the relationship between the ATRIA score and thrombus burden in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study was designed as a prospective cross-sectional observational study. Our study included 319 patients who were prospectively admitted with STEMI between January 2021 and April 2022. Patients were divided into 2 groups with low thrombus burden (LTB) (grade <3) and high thrombus burden (HTB) (grade ≥3). ATRIA score was calculated and recorded for all patients. ATRIA scores of both groups were compared.

RESULTS

In our study, 58.9% (n  =  188) of patients in the LTB group and 41% (n  =  131) of patients in the HTB group. The ATRIA risk score (p < .001) was significantly higher in the HTB group. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, ATRIA score, glomerular filtration rate, hypertensıon, abciximab usage, and no-reflow were found to be independent predictors of HTB in STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI. In receiver operating characteristic analysis, ATRIA score >4 had a sensitivity of 66.2% and specificity of 95.2%, and ATRIA score >8 sensitivity of 98% and specificity of 100% predicted HTB.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we found that thrombus burden may be associated with ATRIA risk score in patients presenting with STEMI.

Mechanisms and Prediction of Ischemic Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation Patients

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia in adults worldwide and represents an important burden for patients, physicians, and healthcare systems. AF is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity, due to the disease itself and its specific complications, such as the increased risk of stroke and thromboembolic events associated with AF. The temporal relation between AF episodes and stroke is nonetheless incompletely understood. The factors associated with an increased thromboembolic risk remain unclear, as well as the stroke risk stratification. Therefore, in this review, we intend to expose the mechanisms and physiopathology leading to intracardiac thrombus formation and stroke in AF patients, together with the evidence supporting the causal hypothesis. We also expose the risk factors associated with increased risk of stroke, the current different risk stratification tools as well as future prospects for improving this risk stratification.

Accuracy and Reliability of Left Atrial Appendage Morphology Assessment by Three-Dimensional Transesophageal Echocardiographic Glass Rendering Modality: A Comparative Study With Computed Tomography

BACKGROUND

Contrast-enhanced computed tomography is the reference-standard imaging technique to assess left atrial appendage (LAA) morphology. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of two-dimensional and new three-dimensional (3D) transesophageal echocardiographic rendering modalities in assessing LAA morphology.

METHODS

Seventy consecutive patients who underwent both computed tomography and transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) were retrospectively enrolled. The traditional LAA morphology classification system (LAAcs; chicken wing, cauliflower, cactus, and windsock) and a new simplified LAAcs based on the LAA bend angle were used for the analysis. LAA morphology was independently assessed by two trained readers using three different modalities: two-dimensional TEE, 3D TEE with multiplanar reconstruction, and a new 3D transesophageal echocardiographic rendering modality with improved transparency (Glass). The new LAAcs and traditional LAAcs were compared in terms of intra- and interrater reliability.

RESULTS

With the new LAAcs, two-dimensional TEE was fairly accurate in identifying LAA morphology (κ = 0.43, P < .05), with moderate interrater (κ = 0.50, P < .05) and substantial intrarater (κ = 0.65, P < .005) agreement. Three-dimensional TEE showed higher accuracy and reliability: 3D TEE with multiplanar reconstruction had almost perfect accuracy (κ = 0.85, P < .001) and substantial (κ = 0.79, P < .001) interrater reliability, while 3D TEE with Glass had substantial accuracy (κ = 0.70, P < .001) and almost perfect (κ = 0.84, P < .001) interrater reliability. Intrarater agreement was almost perfect for both 3D transesophageal echocardiographic modalities (κ = 0.85, P < .001). Accuracy was considerably lower when the traditional LAAcs was used, with 3D TEE with Glass being the most reliable technique (κ = 0.75, P < .05). The new LAAcs showed higher inter- and intrarater reliability compared with the traditional LAAcs (interrater, κ = 0.85 vs κ = 0.49; intrarater, κ = 0.94 vs κ = 0.68; P < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Three-dimensional TEE is an accurate, reliable, and feasible alternative to computed tomography in assessing LAA morphology with the new LAAcs. The new LAAcs shows higher reliability rates than the traditional one.

Comparative Analysis of Risk Stratification Scores in Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial Fibrillation (AF) has become a major global health concern and is associated with an increased risk of poor outcomes. Identifying risk factors in patients with AF can be challenging, given the high burden of comorbidities in these patients. Risk stratification schemes appear to facilitate accurate prediction of outcomes and assist therapeutic management decisions.

OBJECTIVE

To summarize current evidence on risk stratification scores for patients with AF.

RESULTS

Traditional risk models rely heavily on demographics and comorbidities, while newer tools have been gradually focusing on novel biomarkers and diagnostic imaging to facilitate more personalized risk assessment. Several studies have been conducted to compare existing risk schemes and identify specific patient populations in which the prognostic ability of each scheme excels. However, current guidelines do not appear to encourage the implementation of risk models in clinical practice, as they have not incorporated new ones in their recommendations for the management of patients with AF for almost a decade.

CONCLUSION

Further work is warranted to analyze new reliable risk stratification schemes and optimally implement them into routine clinical life.

CHA2DS2-VASc and ATRIA Scores and Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) patients have high risks of thromboembolic events regardless of the category of left ventricular ejection fraction. We sought to assess whether the CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, and female sex) and ATRIA (anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation) scores could predict clinical outcomes in HF patients with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis in a multicenter, America-based population of 1766 HFpEF patients who were stratified according to their baseline CHA2DS2-VASc or ATRIA scores. The CHA2DS2-VASc and ATRIA scores were analyzed as a continuous or categorical variable. The outcomes were stroke, all-cause death, cardiovascular death, any hospitalization, and HF hospitalization.

RESULTS

When score was considered as a continuous variable, each point increase in CHA2DS2-VASc was associated with increased risks of stroke (hazard ratio (HR) 1.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.41, C-index = 0.62), HF hospitalization (HR 1.08, 95% CI = 1.01-1.17, C-index = 0.59), and any hospitalization (HR 1.06, 95% CI = 1.01-1.11, C-index = 0.57) whereas each point increase in ATRIA was associated with increased risks of stroke (HR 1.11, 95% CI = 1.01-1.21, C-index = 0.62), all-cause death (HR 1.09, 95% CI = 1.05-1.14, C-index = 0.61), cardiovascular death (HR 1.08, 95% CI = 1.02-1.14, C-index = 0.59), HF hospitalization (HR 1.07, 95% CI = 1.03-1.12, C-index = 0.58), and any hospitalization (HR 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01-1.06, C-index = 0.57). When score was regarded as a categorical variable, compared with controls, CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 4 was associated with increased risks of stroke and hospitalization whereas ATRIA ≥ 8 was associated with increased risks of stroke, death, and hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

The CHA2DS2-VASc and ATRIA scores are associated with risks of adverse outcomes in HFpEF patients. However, the predictive abilities of CHA2DS2-VASc and ATRIA are modest, and their clinical utility in HFpEF remains to be determined.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

https://clinicaltrials.gov . Identifier: NCT00094302.

GARFIELD-AF risk score for mortality, stroke and bleeding within 2 years in patients with atrial fibrillation

Aims

To determine whether the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD–Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) integrated risk tool predicts mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism, and major bleeding for up to 2 years after new-onset AF and to assess how this risk tool performs compared with CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED.

Methods and results

Potential predictors of events included demographic and clinical characteristics, choice of treatment, and lifestyle factors. A Cox proportional hazards model was identified for each outcome by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator methods. Indices were evaluated in comparison with CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED risk predictors. Models were validated internally and externally in ORBIT-AF and Danish nationwide registries. Among the 52 080 patients enrolled in GARFIELD-AF, 52 032 had follow-up data. The GARFIELD-AF risk tool outperformed CHA₂DS₂-VASc for all-cause mortality in all cohorts. The GARFIELD-AF risk score was superior to CHA₂DS₂-VASc for non-haemorrhagic stroke, and it outperformed HAS-BLED for major bleeding in internal validation and in the Danish AF cohort. In very low- to low-risk patients [CHA₂DS₂-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)], the GARFIELD-AF risk score offered strong discriminatory value for all the endpoints when compared to CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED. The GARFIELD-AF tool also included the effect of oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy, thus allowing clinicians to compare the expected outcome of different anticoagulant treatment decisions [i.e. no OAC, non-vitamin K antagonist (VKA) oral anticoagulants, or VKAs].

Conclusions

The GARFIELD-AF risk tool outperformed CHA₂DS₂-VASc at predicting death and non-haemorrhagic stroke, and it outperformed HAS-BLED for major bleeding in overall as well as in very low- to low-risk group patients with AF.

Clinical trial registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF: NCT01090362, ORBIT-AF I: NCT01165710; ORBIT-AF II: NCT01701817.

Development of imaging-based risk scores for prediction of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients taking antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack: a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Balancing the risks of recurrent ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage is important for patients treated with antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. However, existing predictive models offer insufficient performance, particularly for assessing the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. We aimed to develop new risk scores incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, an MRI biomarker of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke risk.

METHODS

We did a pooled analysis of individual-patient data from the Microbleeds International Collaborative Network (MICON), which includes 38 hospital-based prospective cohort studies from 18 countries. All studies recruited participants with previous ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, acquired baseline MRI allowing quantification of cerebral microbleeds, and followed-up participants for ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage. Participants not taking antithrombotic drugs were excluded. We developed Cox regression models to predict the 5-year risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke, selecting candidate predictors on biological relevance and simplifying models using backward elimination. We derived integer risk scores for clinical use. We assessed model performance in internal validation, adjusted for optimism using bootstrapping. The study is registered on PROSPERO, CRD42016036602.

FINDINGS

The included studies recruited participants between Aug 28, 2001, and Feb 4, 2018. 15 766 participants had follow-up for intracranial haemorrhage, and 15 784 for ischaemic stroke. Over a median follow-up of 2 years, 184 intracranial haemorrhages and 1048 ischaemic strokes were reported. The risk models we developed included cerebral microbleed burden and simple clinical variables. Optimism-adjusted c indices were 0·73 (95% CI 0·69-0·77) with a calibration slope of 0·94 (0·81-1·06) for the intracranial haemorrhage model and 0·63 (0·62-0·65) with a calibration slope of 0·97 (0·87-1·07) for the ischaemic stroke model. There was good agreement between predicted and observed risk for both models.

INTERPRETATION

The MICON risk scores, incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, offer predictive value for the long-term risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients prescribed antithrombotic therapy for secondary stroke prevention; external validation is warranted.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation and Stroke Association.

Risk factors of left atrial appendage thrombus in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation

Objective

To investigate the risk factors of left atrial appendage thrombus (LAAT) in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF).

Methods

We collected the clinical data of patients with non-valvular AF who underwent transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) at the Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University between January 2016 and June 2019. The patients were divided into two groups, LAAT and non-LAAT. We performed comparative analysis, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and logistic regression analysis to estimate the risk factors of LAAT.

Results

A total of 442 patients with non-valvular AF were enrolled in the study. LAAT was detected by TEE in 20 cases (4.7%). Compared with patients without LAAT, patients with LAAT had higher CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores (3 vs 2, p = 0.001), higher values of D-dimer (180.0 vs 90.0 μg/L, p = 0.003), larger LA anteroposterior diameters (50.5 vs 41.0 mm, p < 0.001) and higher ratios of non-paroxysmal AF (85.0% vs 23.6%, p < 0.001). ROC curve analysis revealed that the cutoff value of LA anteroposterior diameter was 49.5 mm. After adjusting for other confounders, logistic regression analysis showed that enlarged LA (anteroposterior diameter ≥49.5 mm) and non-paroxysmal AF were independently associated with higher risks of LAAT (OR = 7.28, 95% CI: 2.36-22.47; OR = 8.89, 95% CI: 2.33-33.99, respectively). The proportions of LAAT in patients with larger LA (anteroposterior diameter ≥49.5 mm), non-paroxysmal AF and both larger LA and non-paroxysmal AF were 30% (12/40), 15.2% (17/112) and 39.1% (9/23), respectively.

Conclusion

Enlarged LA (anteroposterior diameter ≥49.5 mm) and non-paroxysmal AF were independent risk factors of LAAT in non-valvular AF patients.

CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and Essen stroke risk scores in stroke with atrial fibrillation: A nationwide multicenter registry study

The performance of scoring systems for risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) was not validated well in patients with stroke. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the risk scoring systems predict vascular outcomes in stroke patients with AF.Data were obtained from a nationwide multicenter registry for acute stroke with AF from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2015. We investigated the predictive power of the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and Essen stroke scores in stroke patients with AF. The subjects were further stratified into groups according to treatment with or without oral anticoagulants (OACs).A total of 3112 stroke with AF subjects were included. The rate of recurrent ischemic stroke and any stroke were not associated with the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and Essen stroke risk scores. The risks of death and major adverse cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events (MACEs) increased sequentially with the increase of each risk score in OAC group. (the range of C-index 0.544-0.558 for recurrent ischemic stroke; 0.523-0.537 for any stroke; 0.580-0.597 for death; 0.564-0.583 for MACEs). However, in the group treated with OACs, all risk scores were significantly associated with the risk of MACEs. The C-statistics of the 4 scoring systems were 0.544 to 0.558, 0.523 to 0.537, 0.580 to 0.597, 0.564 to 0.583, respectively, for recurrent ischemic stroke, any stroke, death, and MACEs.The performance of the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and Essen stroke risk scores for the prediction of recurrent stroke was unsatisfactory in stroke patients with AF whereas the performance for the prediction of recurrent stroke was not MACEs or death was good. A new risk stratification scheme that is specific for secondary stroke prevention in the AF population is needed.

Stroke and bleeding risk stratification in atrial fibrillation: a critical appraisal

Atrial fibrillation (AF) significantly increases the risk of stroke and, therefore, stroke prevention is an essential component of the management for patients with AF. This requires formal assessment of the individual risk of stroke to determine if the patient is eligible for oral anticoagulation (OAC), and if so, their risk of bleeding on OAC, before a treatment decision regarding stroke prevention is made. Risk of stroke is not homogenous; it depends on the presence or absence of risk factors. A plethora of stroke and bleeding risk factors has been identified, including common and less-well established clinical risk factors, plus imaging, urine, and blood biomarkers. Consequently, there are several stroke and bleeding risk stratification scores available and this article provides an overview of them, the risk factors included and how they are scored, and provides a critical appraisal of them. The review also discusses the debate regarding whether female sex is a risk factor or a risk modifier, and highlights the dynamic nature of both stroke and bleeding risk and the need to re-assess these risks periodically to ensure treatment is optimal to reduce the risk of adverse outcomes. This review also summarizes the recommended stroke and bleeding risk stratification scores from all current major international guidelines.

Comparison of HAS-BLED with other risk models for predicting the bleeding risk in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation: A PRISMA-compliant article

BACKGROUND

The HAS-BLED, HEMORR2HAGES, ATRIA, and ORBIT scores are used to predict bleeding risk in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Recently, these scores have been validated in various studies. Therefore, we aimed to compare the occurrence of major bleeding across different risk categories between HAS-BLED and any of HEMORR2HAGES, ATRIA, or ORBIT scores.

METHODS

A systemic literature search of PubMed and Embase databases was conducted to screen the relevant studies. We calculated and pooled the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for a comparative analysis of the occurrence of major bleeding.

RESULTS

Nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria in this meta-analysis. Compared with HEMORR2HAGES, there were 87% and 39% reduced rates of major bleeding in the HAS-BLED "low-risk" and "moderate-risk" groups, respectively. Compared with ATRIA, there was an 89% decreased rate of major bleeding in the HAS-BLED "low-risk" group. Compared with ORBIT, there were 84% and 44% reduced rates of major bleeding in the HAS-BLED "low-risk" and "moderate-risk" groups, respectively. Patients with HAS-BLED scores ≥3 showed an approximately 3-fold greater risk of major bleeding compared with patients with scores <3 (OR=3.00, CI: 1.21-7.43).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with any of HEMORR2HAGES, ATRIA, or ORBIT scores, the HAS-BLED score distributed more major bleeding events into the "low" or "moderate" risk categories.

Meta-analysis of the efficacy and safety of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants with warfarin in Latin American patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Data of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in current management of atrial fibrillation (AF) are predominantly derived from North American and European regions. However, the effects of NOACs for stroke prevention in Latin America remain unclear. Therefore, we aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of NOACs with warfarin in Latin American patients with AF.

METHODS

The PubMed and Embase databases were systematically searched until July 12, 2019 for applicable randomized clinical trials. The risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Four trials involving 8943 Latin American patients were included in this meta-analysis. In anticoagulated patients with AF, Latin American patients had higher rates of stroke or systemic embolism and all-cause death compared with non-Latin American subjects. Compared with warfarin use, the use of NOACs was significantly associated with reduced risks of stroke or systemic embolism, major bleeding, intracranial bleeding, and any bleeding in Latin American patients. There were no significant differences in the risks of ischemic stroke, all-cause death, and gastrointestinal bleeding between Latin and non-Latin American groups. All the interactions between Latin and non-Latin American groups about efficacy and safety outcomes of NOACs compared with warfarin were non-significant (all Pinteraction > .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis suggested that the use of NOACs was at least non-inferior to warfarin use for stroke prevention in Latin American patients with AF.

Comparative performance of AnTicoagulation and Risk factors In Atrial fibrillation and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk scores in predicting long-term adverse events in patients with acute myocardial infarction

Objective:

This study is designed to evaluate the recently developed AnTicoagulation and Risk factors In Atrial fibrillation (ATRIA) risk score (RS), which determines the predisposition to thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events in atrial fibrillation, as a predictor of prognosis in patients having acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and to compare the predictive ability of ATRIA RS with GRACE RS.

Methods:

We analyzed 1627 patients having AMI who underwent coronary angiography and/or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) between January 2011 and February 2015. The primary endpoints included all-cause mortality, non-fatal MI, and cerebrovascular events during follow-up.

Results:

Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the ATRIA RS>3 was an independent predictor of major adverse cardiac events in patients with AMI [hazard ratio, 2.00, 95% confidence interval, 1.54 to 2.60, p<0,001]. The area under the curve (AUC) for ATRIA RS and GRACE RS was 0.66 and 0.67 (p<0.001, and p<0.001), respectively. We performed a pair-wise comparison of receiver operating characteristic curves, and noted the predictive value of ATRIA RS with regard to primary endpoints was similar to that of GRACE RS (By DeLong method, AUCATRIA vs. AUCGRACE z test=0.64, p=0.52).

Conclusion:

ATRIA RS may be useful in predicting prognosis in patients having AMI during long-term follow-up.

Anticoagulation risk assessment for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism: A clinical review

Non-valvular atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism anticoagulation risk assessment tools have been increasingly utilized to guide implementation and duration of anticoagulant therapy. Anticoagulation significantly reduces stroke and recurrent venous thromboembolism risk, but comes at the cost of increased risk of major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding. The decision for anticoagulation in high-risk patients is complicated by the fact that many risk factors associated with increased thromboembolic risk are simultaneously associated with increased bleeding risk. Traditional risk assessment tools rely heavily on age, sex, and presence of cardiovascular comorbidities, with newer tools additionally taking into account changes in risk factors over time and novel biomarkers to facilitate more personalized risk assessment. These tools may help counsel and inform patients about the risks and benefits of starting or continuing anticoagulant therapy and can identify patients who may benefit from more careful management. Although the ability to predict anticoagulant-associated hemorrhagic risk is modest, ischemic and bleeding risk scores have been shown to add significant value to therapeutic management decisions. Ultimately, further work is needed to optimally implement accurate and actionable risk stratification into clinical practice.

When are the cardiovascular and stroke risks too high? Pharmacotherapy for stroke prophylaxis

INTRODUCTION

Stroke is a significant source of morbidity and mortality in developed countries. Cardioembolic strokes represent approximately 15-30% of all ischemic strokes. They are frequently related to atrial fibrillation (AF) and have a worse prognosis and high recurrence rates when compared to other causes (e.g. atherosclerosis).

AREAS COVERED

This review includes a summary of general and specific scores to assess cardiovascular and stroke risks, with a focus on specific scores available in AF. Recommendations for antithrombotic therapy are also reviewed.

EXPERT OPINION

Several scores are available for the evaluation of stroke risk. They are useful to identify the risk factors that trigger the need for medical interventions. Integrated risk scores with visual interfaces showing the risk of events, with and without the proposed interventions, can aid decision-making. The risk of stroke can definitely be considered too high in those patients with a history of stroke/transient ischemic attack, who need antiplatelet therapy (after a non-cardioembolic stroke) or anticoagulant therapy (after a cardioembolic stroke). For primary prevention of stroke, antiplatelet therapy is not usually recommended, while anticoagulation should be considered if the patient has concomitant AF and at least one additional risk factor unrelated to sex.