Prediction model of hepatocarcinogenesis for patients with hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis. Validation with internal and external cohorts

Computed Tomography-Measured Liver Volume Predicts the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

AIM

In this retrospective cohort study, we evaluated the significance of liver volume in the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in 277 chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who received dynamic computed tomography (CT) during surveillance.

METHODS

Liver volumes were measured on portal venous phase of CT images by using ImageJ software. Liver volume index, a ratio of the standard liver volume expected by weight and height to the measured liver volume, was calculated to adjust for normal variations. The cohort was randomly divided to derivation (n = 100) and validation sets (n = 177) for the generation of a liver volume-based Cox prediction model and validation of a liver volume-based nomogram, respectively.

RESULTS

The liver volume index was independent of weight or height, and it predicted further development of HCC (hazard ratio [HR] 16.30, 95% CI 6.70-39.62; p < 0.001). Liver cirrhosis, gamma-glutamyl transferase, and liver volume index were independent predictors of HCC, and nomogram-based prediction score from these three parameters identified high-risk patients at the cutoff of 110 in both derivation (p < 0.001) and validation cohort (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Liver volume-based prediction model stratifies the risk of developing HCC in CHC patients whose initial dynamic CT study gave negative results.

Assessing the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma by combining liver stiffness and the controlled attenuation parameter

AIM

Ultrasound technology can now be used for liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and for evaluating the amount of hepatic fat quantitatively known as the controlled attenuation parameter (CAP). This study aimed to determine the applicable cut-off values of LSM and the CAP for primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and to investigate their clinical usefulness for assessing HCC risk in patients with chronic liver disease.

METHODS

A total of 1054 patients (88 with primary HCC and 966 without HCC) whose LSM and the CAP were measured by transient elastography with clinically evident hepatitis C virus (419 patients), hepatitis B virus (377 patients), and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (258 patients) were enrolled in this study. Subsequently, a total of 966 patients who did not have HCC initially were followed, and the usefulness of the cut-off values of LSM and CAP for HCC development were evaluated.

RESULTS

In hepatitis C virus patients, the incidence of HCC development was significantly higher among those with a combination of LSM ≥8.0 kPa and CAP ≤221 dB/m than among those with other values (log-rank test 0.0239, hazard ratio 2.66, 95%CI 1.07-6.47, P = 0.0362). In non-alcoholic fatty liver disease patients, the incidence of HCC development was significantly higher among those with a combination of LSM ≥5.4 kPa and CAP ≤265 dB/m than among others (log-rank test 0.0040, hazard ratio 8.91, 95% CI 1.47-67.97, P = 0.0192).

CONCLUSION

In the hepatitis C virus and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease groups, a combination of LSM and the CAP cut-off values would be useful for screening to identify the high-risk group for primary HCC development.

Immune inflammation indicators and ALBI score to predict liver cancer in HCV-patients treated with direct-acting antivirals

BACKGROUND

Unexpectedly high occurrence or recurrence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been observed in patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) therapy.

AIMS

We evaluated the predictive value of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score and immune-inflammation indicators to identify the risk of occurrence or recurrence of HCC in patients treated with DAAs in a real life setting.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we analysed data from 514 patients with cirrhosis who were prospectively enrolled for treatment with DAAs. We assessed baseline neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), aspartate aminotransferase-lymphocyte ratio (ALRI) index and ALBI score.

RESULTS

In patients with no history of HCC (N = 416), increased AST, bilirubin, ALRI, and ALBI score, and decreased albumin and platelets were significantly associated with an increased risk of HCC development, at univariate analysis. At multivariate analysis, increase in ALBI grade (p = 0.038, HR: 2.35, 95% CI: 1.05-5.25) and decrease in platelets (p = 0.048, HR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.85-1.0) were independently associated with HCC development. In patients with previous HCC (N = 98), adjusting for the time from HCC treatment, increased ALRI (p = 0.008, HR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.09) was significantly associated with a risk of recurrence.

CONCLUSION

ALBI score, platelet count and ALRI are promising, easy to perform and inexpensive tools for identifying patients with higher risk of HCC after treatment with DAAs.

Liver stiffness measurements in chronic hepatitis C: Treatment evaluation and risk assessment

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Liver stiffness (LS), measured by transient elastography, has been validated as a non-invasive surrogate for liver fibrosis.

METHODS

We investigated the long-term predictive ability of LS for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development and overall survival in 1146 patients with chronic hepatitis C by using LS value at enrollment. We also investigated chronological changes in LS based on antiviral therapy and its outcome in 752 patients.

RESULTS

During the mean follow-up period of 6.6 years, 190 patients developed HCC. Cumulative HCC incidence rates at 5 years were clearly stratified as 1.7% in the ≤ 5 kPa, 3.3% in 5.1-10 kPa, 16.7% in 10.1-15 kPa, 24.4% in 15.1-20 kPa, 36.3% in 20.1-25 kPa, and 43.7% in > 25 kPa subgroups (P < 0.001). Overall survival was also stratified: 10-year survival rates were 99.3% in the ≤ 5 kPa, 95.4% in 5.1-10 kPa, 81.4% in 10.1-15 kPa, 79.5% in 15.1-20 kPa, 66.1% in 20.1-25 kPa, and 49.1% in > 25 kPa subgroups (P < 0.001). LS decreased at a rate of 8.1% per year in those who achieved sustained virological responses, but increased at 0.1% per year in those who could not achieve sustained virological response instead of antiviral therapy, and increased at 3.7% per year in those who did not undergo antiviral therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver stiffness measurements can be useful in the prediction of HCC development and overall survival and in the evaluation of chronological changes in liver fibrosis grade during and after antiviral therapy.

Hepatitis C virus genotype 3 was associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in Korea

Although hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 3 infection is thought to be an important risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), current evidence is limited because only a few Western studies have evaluated the occurrence of HCC in patients with HCV genotype 3 infection. We evaluated the impact of genotype 3 and non-3 on HCC incidence and on disease progression in chronic HCV patients; this is the first study reporting such findings in an Asian population. We performed a retrospective cohort study using the data of 1448 consecutive chronic HCV patients evaluated at three centres in Korea between January 2005 and December 2016. Of these, 604, 675 and 169 had genotype 1, genotype 2 and genotype 3 HCV infections, respectively. Over a mean follow-up period of 53.2 months, 75 and 143 patients of all the patients developed HCC and experienced disease progression, respectively. The incidences of HCC were 1.10, 0.92 and 2.50 per 100 person-years, and those of disease progression were 1.95, 1.62 and 6.72 per 100 person-years for HCV genotypes 1, 2 and 3, respectively. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, genotype 3 was associated with an increased risk of HCC (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.02-8.97) and an increased risk of disease progression (HR = 4.88, 95%; CI = 2.94-8.08). Our study proposes that HCV genotype 3 is an independent risk factor for HCC and disease progression in chronic HCV patients.

Short- and Long-term Outcomes between Young and Older HCC Patients Exceeding The Milan Criteria after Hepatectomy

AIM

The objective of this study was to evaluate short- and long-term survival after surgical treatment between young and older hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients beyond the Milan criteria.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

One hundred fifty-seven HCC patients (≤ 55 years old) were categorized into group A, and one hundred fifty-eight HCC patients (&gt; 55 years old) were categorized into group B. Postoperative complications and overall survival were retrospectively analyzed.

RESULTS

Older HCC patients had a higher rate of delayed extubation after surgery and suffered more complications after surgery, especially major complications. Intraoperative blood transfusion, liver fibrosis/cirrhosis and delayed extubation were risk factors related to postoperative complications. Microvascular invasion (MVI), tumor diameter, postoperative alpha-fetoprotein and the presence of satellites were independent risk factors for long-term survival. Young patients had more advanced tumors. Overall survival rates at 1, 3 and 5-years were 78.1%, 45.1% and 27.4% for young patients, respectively, and 86.5%, 57.5% and 42.4% for older patients, respectively (p = 0.007).

CONCLUSION

The category A group had poorer tumor characteristics and worse prognoses than the category B group.

Risk score system for the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with type 2 diabetes: Taiwan Diabetes Study

This study aims to develop a risk score system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with type 2 diabetes using the Taiwan National Diabetes Care Management Program database. This retrospective cohort study included 31,723 Chinese patients who had type 2 diabetes, aged 30-84 years. Participants were randomly grouped into derivation and validation sets in 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify the risk factors of HCC in the derivation set. Discrimination ability of the model was assessed by means of a receiver operating characteristic curve and performance was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally on validation data sets. The average follow-up was 8.33 years with 748 HCC incident cases in the derivation set. The final HCC risk score system included age (-2 to 8 points), gender (0-2 points), smoking (0-2 points), variation in hemoglobin A1c (0-1 point), serum glutamic-pyruvic transaminase (0-6 points), liver cirrhosis (9 points), hepatitis B (4 points), hepatitis C (3 points), antidiabetes medications (0-3 points), and antihyperlipidemia medications and total/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (-4 to 2 points). The HCC risk score was the sum of these individual scores (range -6 to 40). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 3-, 5-, and 10-year HCC risks was 0.81, 0.80, and 0.77 for the derivation set, respectively. This HCC risk score system has good prediction accuracy and discriminatory ability, and serves a simple tool for HCC risk prediction.

The Role of Diagnosis and Treatment of Underlying Liver Disease for the Prognosis of Primary Liver Cancer

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Underlying chronic liver disease has been associated with an increased risk of developing HCC. This study is a review of the current literature regarding the diagnosis, prognostic significance, and role of treating underlying liver disease in patients who are at risk of primary liver cancer. Relevant peer review of the English literature between 1980 and 2017 within PubMed and the Cochrane library was conducted for scientific content on current advances in managing chronic liver diseases and the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. Hepatitis C virus, hepatitis B virus (HBV), nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, autoimmune hepatitis, hereditary hemochromatosis, Wilson disease, primary biliary cirrhosis, α 1-antitrypsin deficiency, and certain drugs lead to an increased risk of developing HCC. Patients with underlying liver disease have an increased incidence of HCC. Hepatitis C virus, HBV, and hemochromatosis can directly lead to HCC without the presence of cirrhosis, while HCC related to other underlying liver diseases occurs in patients with cirrhosis. Treating the underlying liver disease and reducing the progression to cirrhosis should lead to a decreased incidence of HCC.

Genetic basis of hepatitis virus-associated hepatocellular carcinoma: linkage between infection, inflammation, and tumorigenesis

Hepatitis virus infection is a leading cause of chronic liver disease, including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although anti-viral therapies against hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) have dramatically progressed during the past decade, the estimated number of people chronically infected with HBV and/or HCV is ~370 million, and hepatitis virus-associated hepatocarcinogenesis is a serious health concern worldwide. Understanding the mechanism of virus-associated carcinogenesis is crucial toward both treatment and prevention, and the recently developed whole genome/exome sequencing analysis using next-generation sequencing technologies has contributed to unveiling the landscape of genetic and epigenetic aberrations in not only tumor tissues but also the background liver tissues underlying chronic liver damage caused by hepatitis virus infection. Several major mechanisms underlie the genetic and epigenetic aberrations in the hepatitis virus-infected liver, such as the generation of reactive oxidative stress, ectopic expression of DNA mutator enzymes, and dysfunction of the DNA repair system. In addition, direct oncogenic effects of hepatitis virus, represented by the integration of HBV-DNA, are observed in infected hepatocytes. Elucidating the whole picture of genetic and epigenetic alterations, as well as the mechanisms of tumorigenesis, will facilitate the development of efficient treatment and prevention strategies for hepatitis virus-associated HCC.

Daclatasvir and asunaprevir treatment improves liver function parameters and reduces liver fibrosis markers in chronic hepatitis C patients

AIM

Although interferon (IFN)-free antiviral therapy is expected to improve the treatment response for chronic hepatitis C, the effect on liver function and liver fibrosis is unknown. In this study, we analyzed the long-term follow up of liver function parameters and liver fibrosis markers in genotype 1b hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients treated with daclatasvir and asunaprevir.

METHODS

Thirty patients were treated with daclatasvir and asunaprevir for 24 weeks, and 26 patients achieved sustained virological response (SVR). We measured liver function parameters, serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and albumin levels and liver fibrosis markers, hyaluronic acid, type IV collagen and Mac-2-binding protein (M2BPGi) before and after (median, 27 months; range, 17-47) completion of the treatment in SVR and non-SVR patients. We also measured serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) levels during the therapy and follow-up period.

RESULTS

Pretreatment serum ALT and albumin levels and liver fibrosis markers were similar between SVR and non-SVR patients. Twenty-seven months after treatment, serum ALT and albumin levels significantly improved only in SVR patients. Although there was no change in non-SVR patients, platelet count and serum liver fibrosis markers significantly improved in SVR patients. Serum AFP levels rapidly decreased during the treatment in both SVR and non-SVR patients, but the change was significant only in SVR patients.

CONCLUSION

Successful viral eradication by IFN-free daclatasvir and asunaprevir therapy could lead to improved liver function parameters and reduced liver fibrosis markers and AFP levels. This treatment has the potential to improve liver fibrosis and decrease the incidence of hepatocarcinogenesis.

The impact of the revolution in hepatitis C treatment on hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatitis C infection represents a global health problem affecting ∼200 million chronically infected patients worldwide. Owing to the development of a fibrogenic and inflammatory micromilieu in the liver, hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients are at a high risk of developing fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The advent of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs), however, has spurred a revolution in the treatment of HCV patients with sustained viral response (SVR) rates exceeding 90% in real-life settings. Recent clinical trials suggest that these novel treatments will not only alter the epidemiology of HCV infection but also the incidence of HCV-induced complications including hepatic decompensation, liver transplantation and hepatocarcinogenesis. Here, we summarize data from clinical trials carried out in HCV patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and analyze the impact of viral clearance on HCC development and treatment. Finally, we review and discuss current and future treatment options of HCV patients with HCC in pre- and post-transplantation settings.

Survival Analysis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Comparison Between Young Patients and Aged Patients

Background:

To compare the clinicopathological features and prognosis between younger and aged patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods:

We analyzed the outcome of 451 HCC patients underwent liver resection, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization and radiofrequency ablation, respectively. Then risk factors for aged and younger patients’ survival were evaluated by multivariate analysis, respectively.

Results:

The patients who were older than 55 years old were defined as the older group. The overall survival for aged patients was significantly worse than those younger patients. The younger patients had similar liver functional reserve but more aggressive tumor factors than aged patients. Cox regression analysis showed that the elevated levels of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (Wald χ² = 3.963, P = 0.047, hazard ratio [HR] =1.453, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.006–2.098), lower albumin (Wald χ² = 12.213, P < 0.001, HR = 1.982, 95% CI: 1.351–2.910), tumor size (Wald χ² = 8.179, P = 0.004, HR = 1.841, 95% CI: 1.212–2.797), and higher alpha-fetoprotein level (Wald χ² = 4.044, P = 0.044, HR = 1.465, 95% CI: 1.010–2.126) were independent prognostic factors for aged patients, while only elevated levels of AST (Wald χ² = 14.491, P < 0.001, HR = 2.285, 95% CI: 1.493–3.496) and tumor size (Wald χ² = 21.662, P < 0.001, HR = 2.928, 95% CI: 1.863–4.604) were independent prognostic factors for younger patients.

Conclusions:

Age is a risk factor to determine the prognosis of patients with HCC. Aged patients who have good liver functional reserve are still encouraged to receive curative therapy.

Prospective cohort study on the outcomes of hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis in South Korea

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The outcomes of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related liver cirrhosis was limitedly studied in a hepatitis B virus-endemic area. This multicenter, prospective cohort study was conducted to elucidate the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality in the Korean patients with HCV-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

From January 2007 through June 2012, 196 patients with HCV-related cirrhosis were prospectively enrolled and regularly followed at six university hospitals to determine HCC occurrence and mortality. A multivariable analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to clarify the related factors to the outcomes.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up period of 39.2 months, 31 (15.8%) patients developed HCC, and 33 (16.8%) patients died or underwent liver transplantation. The estimated HCC incidence was 5.8 per 100 person-years, and the independent factors for HCC were absence of anti-HBV surface antibody (HBs hazard ratio [HR], 5.018; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.710-14.726; P = 0.003) and serum albumin < 3.8 g/dL (HR, 3.051; 95% CI, 1.318-7.067; P = 0.009). The overall mortality rate was 5.1 per 100 person-years, and the related independent factors were the presence of ascites (HR, 2.448; 95% CI, 1.142-5.210; P = 0.022), serum albumin < 3.8 g/dL (HR, 3.067; 95% CI, 1.254-8.139, P = 0.014), and nonachievement of sustained virologic response (SVR) (HR, 0.066; 95% CI, 0.001-0.484, P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of HCC in HCV-related cirrhosis seems to be high in Korea, and advanced liver disease and no achievement of SVR were associated with mortality. The absence of anti-HBs in hepatocarcinogenesis related to HCV warrants further study.

Elevated serum levels of Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2 binding protein predict the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis C patients

The Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2-binding protein (WFA+-M2BP) was recently shown to be a liver fibrosis glycobiomarker with a unique fibrosis-related glycoalteration. We evaluated the ability of WFA+-M2BP to predict the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients who were infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV). A total of 707 patients who had been admitted to our hospital with chronic HCV infection without other potential risk factors were evaluated to determine the ability of WFA+-M2BP to predict the development of HCC; factors evaluated included age, sex, viral load, genotypes, fibrosis stage, aspartate and alanine aminotransferase levels, bilirubin, albumin, platelet count, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), WFA+-M2BP, and the response to interferon (IFN) therapy. Serum WFA+-M2BP levels were significantly increased according to the progression of liver fibrosis stage (P<0.001). In each distinctive stage of fibrosis (F0-F1, F2, F3, and F4), the risk of development of HCC was increased according to the elevation of WFA+-M2BP. Multivariate analysis identified age>57 years, F4, AFP>20 ng/mL, WFA+-M2BP ≥4, and WFA+-M2BP 1-4 as well as the response to IFN (no therapy vs. sustained virological response) as independent risk factors for the development of HCC. The time-dependent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated that the WFA+-M2BP assay predicted the development of HCC with higher diagnostic accuracy than AFP.

CONCLUSION

WFA+-M2BP can be applied as a useful surrogate marker for the risk of HCC development, in addition to liver biopsy.

Hepatocellular carcinoma tumour markers: current role and expectations

Tumour markers could be helpful along the continuum of care for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma; however, there is insufficient data for routine use of most current biomarkers in clinical practice. Therefore, the backbone of early detection, diagnosis and treatment response for hepatocellular carcinoma remains imaging-based. Alpha fetoprotein is the best studied of all biomarkers and may be of benefit for early detection when used in combination with ultrasound. Several other biomarkers, including AFP-L3, DCP, osteopontin, and GP73, are also being evaluated for early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma in phase III biomarker studies. Serum and tissue-based biomarkers and genomics may aid in HCC diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment selection; however, further studies are needed to better characterize their accuracy and potential role in clinical practice.

Hepatitis C-related liver cirrhosis - strategies for the prevention of hepatic decompensation, hepatocarcinogenesis, and mortality

Liver cirrhosis (LC) is a critical stage of chronic liver disease, including that caused by hepatitis C virus (HCV). In the absence of antiviral therapy, 67%-91% of patients with HCV-related LC patients die of liver-related causes, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver failure. Among the therapeutic strategies used to prevent liver-related complications in these patients is standard therapy with pegylated interferon and ribavirin, which induces a sustained virological response (SVR) in 25% of HCV genotype 1-infected patients and in 69% of patients infected with genotypes 2 and 3. SVR in patients with HCV-related LC has been associated with reduced rates of hepatic decompensation, HCC, and mortality. More recently developed direct-acting antiviral agents have shown excellent antiviral efficacy, with preliminary data demonstrating that an interferon-free regimen that includes these direct-acting antiviral agents achieved SVR in more than 50% of patients with HCV genotype 1 LC. Branched-chain amino acid supplementation, improvement of insulin resistance, and the use of β-blockers for portal hypertension may also reduce liver-related complications. Here, we review advances in antiviral and adjunctive therapies for improved outcomes in patients with HCV-associated LC.

Improved Serum Alpha-Fetoprotein Levels after Iron Reduction Therapy in HCV Patients

Background and Aims. To examine the changes in serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels after iron reduction by therapeutic phlebotomy in chronic hepatitis C patients. Methods. This retrospective study included 26 chronic hepatitis C patients. The patients were developed iron depletion by repeated therapeutic phlebotomies. Results. Iron reduction therapy significantly reduced the median level of serum AFP from 13 to 7 ng/mL, ALT from 96 to 50 IU/L, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) from 55 to 28 IU/L, and ferritin from 191 to 10 ng/mL (P < 0.001 for each). The rate of decline in the AFP level correlated positively only with that in GGT (r = 0.695, P = 0.001), although a spurious correlation was observed between the rates of decline for AFP and ALT. The AFP level normalized (<10 ng/mL) posttreatment in eight (50%) of 16 patients who had elevated pretreatment AFP levels. Normalized post-treatment ALT and GGT levels were seen in 12% (3 of 26) and 39% (7 of 18) of the patients, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified a post-treatment GGT level of <30 IU/L as an independent factor associated with post-treatment AFP normalization (odds ratio, 21; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-293; P = 0.024). Conclusions. Iron reduction by therapeutic phlebotomy can reduce serum AFP and GGT levels in chronic hepatitis C patients.

Surveillance for early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: How best to do it?

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is considered a standard of care for patients with chronic liver disease who are at risk of developing this malignancy. Several studies have shown that surveillance can improve the prognosis of patients diagnosed with HCC through an increased likelihood of application of curative or effective treatments. Repetition of liver ultrasonography (US) every 6 mo is the recommended surveillance program to detect early HCCs, and a positive US has to entrain a well-defined recall policy based on contrast-enhanced, dynamic radiological imaging or biopsy for the diagnosis of HCC. Although HCC fulfills the accepted criteria regarding cost-effective cancer screening and surveillance, the implementation of surveillance in clinical practice is defective and this has a negative impact on the cost-effectiveness of the procedure. Education of both physicians and patients is of paramount importance in order to improve the surveillance application and its benefits in patients at risk of HCC. The promotion of specific educational programs for practitioners, clinicians and patients is instrumental in order to expand the correct use of surveillance in clinical practice and eventually improve HCC prognosis.

α-fetoprotein levels after interferon therapy and risk of hepatocarcinogenesis in chronic hepatitis C

The effects of interferon (IFN) treatment and the post-IFN treatment α-fetoprotein (AFP) levels on risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) are unknown. To determine the relationship between AFP and alanine transaminase (ALT) levels and HCC risk, a cohort consisting of 1,818 patients histologically proven to have CHC treated with IFN were studied. Cumulative incidence and HCC risk were analyzed over a mean follow-up period of 6.1 years using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard analysis. HCC developed in 179 study subjects. According to multivariate analysis, older age, male gender, advanced fibrosis, severe steatosis, lower serum albumin levels, non sustained virological response (non-SVR), and higher post-IFN treatment ALT or AFP levels were identified as independent factors significantly associated with HCC development. Cutoff values for ALT and AFP for prediction of future HCC were determined as 40 IU/L and 6.0 ng/mL, respectively, and negative predictive values of these cutoffs were high at 0.960 in each value. The cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in patients whose post-IFN treatment ALT and AFP levels were suppressed to less than the cutoff values even in non-SVR patients. This suppressive effect was also found in patients whose post-IFN treatment ALT and AFP levels were reduced to less than the cutoff values despite abnormal pretreatment levels.

CONCLUSION

Post-IFN treatment ALT and AFP levels are significantly associated with hepatocarcinogenesis. Measurement of these values is useful for predicting future HCC risk after IFN treatment. Suppression of these values after IFN therapy reduces HCC risk even in patients without HCV eradication.

Annual incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and identification of risk groups

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and associated risk factors in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis are not well defined. Surveillance for HCC among patients with cirrhosis who do not have hepatitis B is cost effective only if the expected risk of HCC exceeds 1.5% per year. We performed a prospective study to determine the incidence of HCC among patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and to identify risk factors.

METHODS

We analyzed data from a surveillance program of 450 patients, aged 40 to 75 years, with alcoholic cirrhosis of Child-Pugh class A or B; patients were enrolled at the liver unit of a tertiary center from September 1992 through March 2010. Data were collected on 20 demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables at the start of the study. Patients were examined every 3 to 6 months for 5 years to identify risk factors for HCC; incidence was determined from a median follow-up time of 42 months.

RESULTS

Over the follow-up period, 62 patients developed HCC (43 in the first 5 y of follow-up evaluation), with an annual incidence of 2.6%. By using multivariate analysis, age 55 years and older (hazard ratio, 2.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.27-4.51) and platelet counts less than 125 × 10(3)/mm(3) (hazard ratio, 3.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.39-7.85) were associated independently with the development of HCC. These variables were used to define 3 risk groups. The annual incidence of HCC in the group without either of these factors was 0.3% (n = 93), the annual incidence with 1 factor was 2.6% (n = 228), and the annual incidence with both factors was 4.8% (n = 129) (P < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The annual incidence of HCC among patients with alcoholic cirrhosis of Child-Pugh class A or B is around 2.5%. Age and platelet count can be used to classify the patients in 3 different risk groups for HCC development within the next 5 years.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction model for the general population: the predictive power of transaminases

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma are available for individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections who are at high risk but not for the general population with average or unknown risk. We developed five simple risk prediction models based on clinically available data from the general population.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of 428 584 subjects from a private health screening firm in Taiwan was divided into two subgroups-one with known HCV test results (n = 130 533 subjects) and the other without (n = 298 051 subjects). A total of 1668 incident hepatocellular carcinomas occurred during an average follow-up of 8.5 years. Model inputs included age, sex, health history-related variables; HBV or HCV infection-related variables; serum levels of alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), and alfa-fetoprotein (AFP), as well as other variables of routine blood panels for liver function. Cox proportional hazards regression method was used to identify risk predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess discriminatory accuracy of the models. Models were internally validated. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

Age, sex, health history, HBV and HCV status, and serum ALT, AST, AFP levels were statistically significant independent predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma risk (all P < .05). Use of serum transaminases only in a model showed a higher discrimination compared with HBV or HCV only (for transaminases, area under the curve [AUC] = 0.912, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.909 to 0.915; for HBV, AUC = 0.840, 95% CI = 0.833 to 0.848; and for HCV, AUC = 0.841, 95% CI = 0.834 to 0.847). Adding HBV and HCV data to the transaminase-only model improved the discrimination (AUC = 0.933, 95% CI = 0.929 to 0.949). Internal validation showed high discriminatory accuracy and calibration of these models.

CONCLUSION

Models with transaminase data were best able to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk even among subjects with unknown or HBV- or HCV-negative infection status.

Efficacy and anticarcinogenic activity of ribavirin combination therapy for hepatitis C virus-related compensated cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

Anticarcinogenic activity of ribavirin combination therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related compensated cirrhosis is still unclear.

METHODS

In study 1, in 157 consecutive patients with HCV-related compensated cirrhosis, treatment efficacy with interferon plus ribavirin therapy was evaluated for 48 weeks of HCV genotype 1b (HCV-1b) or 24 weeks of HCV-2a/2b. In study 2, in 185 consecutive patients with HCV-related compensated cirrhosis, who showed no sustained virological response following the first course of interferon monotherapy, hepatocarcinogenesis rates were evaluated according to the additional treatment, and they were classified into three groups: no treatment, interferon monotherapy, and ribavirin combination therapy.

RESULTS

In study 1, in HCV-1b, rates of sustained virological response and sustained biochemical response were 21 and 56%, respectively. In HCV-2a/2b, rates of sustained virological response and sustained biochemical response were 70 and 78%, respectively. In HCV-1b, sustained biochemical response rates were significantly higher than those of sustained virological response. In study 2, the hepatocarcinogenesis rates in ribavirin combination therapy were significantly lower than those in interferon monotherapy and no treatment, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Ribavirin combination therapy for HCV-related compensated cirrhosis reduces the risk of hepatocarcinogenesis in comparison with interferon monotherapy, and higher rates of sustained biochemical response might be associated with lower hepatocarcinogenesis rates.

Modelling hepatitis C virus infection and the development of hepatocellular carcinoma

While mathematical models exist describing the dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV), most of them focus on the short term dynamics after the commencement of antiviral therapy. This work is the first attempt at mathematically modelling the full course of HCV infection and the impact that these viral and immune processes have on the progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This model is based on the premise that these long term conditions are ultimately random and likely driven by the cell-mediated immune response. The risk of cancer arising is modelled through a stochastic model that incorporates the dynamics of HCV over the course of infection. Our model simulations produce approximately 9% prevalence of HCC in individuals after 40 years, consistent with the literature estimates. We find that higher viral infectivity leads to a greater likelihood of developing HCC (p<0.0001), but it does not determine the speed with which it arises. This infectivity drives the level of immune response, the amount of hepatocyte proliferation, and the risk of a mutational event. In our simulations the probability of developing HCC increases approximately linearly with duration of infection at the rate of 2.4 incident cases per thousand HCV-infected person years. This indicates that the sooner viral replication can be suppressed through antiviral therapy, the greater the chance of forestalling HCC.

Alpha-fetoprotein above normal levels as a risk factor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients infected with hepatitis C virus

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive risk factors are required for predicting the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) not only in patients with cirrhosis but also in those with chronic hepatitis who are infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV).

METHODS

A total of 707 patients with chronic HCV infection without other risks were evaluated for the predictive value of noninvasive risk factors for HCC, including age, sex, viral load, genotype, fibrosis stage, aspartate and alanine aminotransferase levels, bilirubin, albumin, platelet count, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at entry to the study, as well as interferon (IFN) therapy they received.

RESULTS

The ten-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC for patients with fibrosis stages F0/F1, F2, F3, and F4 were 2.5, 12.8, 19.3, and 55.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified age ≥57 years [hazard ratio (HR) 2.026, P = 0.004], fibrosis stage F4 (HR 3.957, P < 0.001), and AFP 6-20 ng/mL (HR 1.942, P = 0.030) and ≥20 ng/mL (HR 3.884, P < 0.001), as well as the response to IFN [relative risk (RR) 0.099, P < 0.001], as independent risk factors for the development of HCC. The ten-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC in the patients with AFP levels of <6, 6-20, and ≥20 ng/mL at entry were 6.0, 24.6, and 47.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Not only high (>20 ng/mL), but also even slightly elevated (6-20 ng/mL) AFP levels, could serve as a risk factor for HCC to complement the fibrosis stage. In contrast, AFP levels <6 ng/mL indicate a low risk of HCC development in patients infected with HCV, irrespective of the fibrosis stage.

Comparison of outcomes between patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and those with hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The natural history of alcoholic cirrhosis, especially in Asian countries, has not been completely understood thus far.

METHODS

We retrospectively compared the outcomes of compensated cirrhosis between Japanese alcoholic and hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients.

RESULTS

A total of 227 patients (75 alcoholic and 152 HCV-infected patients) with compensated cirrhosis were enrolled. The median follow-up period was 4.9 years. The cumulative rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development were significantly lower in the alcoholic patients than in the HCV-infected patients (6.8% vs 50.3% at 10 years, P = 0.0003), while the cumulative rates of hepatic decompensation (37.4% vs 51.7% at 10 years) and survival (53.8% vs 47.4% at 10 years) did not significantly differ between the two groups (Kaplan-Meir analysis). The main causes of death were hepatic failure and non-hepatic diseases in the alcoholic patients and HCC and hepatic failure in the HCV-infected patients. Multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazard model revealed that the risk of HCC was lower in alcoholic cirrhosis than in HCV-related cirrhosis (hazard ratio (HR), 0.46), while the risk of hepatic decompensation and mortality was the same. Predictors of decreased survival were non-abstinence (HR, 2.53) in the alcoholic patients and low serum albumin level (1.58) in the HCV-infected patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis was similar to that of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. The risk of HCC development was lower in alcoholic cirrhosis than in HCV-related cirrhosis. Abstinence from alcohol was important for improving the survival of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis.

Common transcriptional signature of tumor-infiltrating mononuclear inflammatory cells and peripheral blood mononuclear cells in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is frequently associated with infiltrating mononuclear inflammatory cells. We performed laser capture microdissection of HCC-infiltrating and noncancerous liver-infiltrating mononuclear inflammatory cells in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CH-C) and examined gene expression profiles. HCC-infiltrating mononuclear inflammatory cells had an expression profile distinct from noncancerous liver-infiltrating mononuclear inflammatory cells; they differed with regard to genes involved in biological processes, such as antigen presentation, ubiquitin-proteasomal proteolysis, and responses to hypoxia and oxidative stress. Immunohistochemical analysis and gene expression databases suggested that the up-regulated genes involved macrophages and Th1 and Th2 CD4 cells. We next examined the gene expression profile of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) obtained from CH-C patients with or without HCC. The expression profiles of PBMCs from patients with HCC differed significantly from those of patients without HCC (P < 0.0005). Many of the up-regulated genes in HCC-infiltrating mononuclear inflammatory cells were also differentially expressed by PBMCs of HCC patients. Analysis of the commonly up-regulated or down-regulated genes in HCC-infiltrating mononuclear inflammatory cells and PBMCs of HCC patients showed networks of nucleophosmin, SMAD3, and proliferating cell nuclear antigen that are involved with redox status, the cell cycle, and the proteasome system, along with immunologic genes, suggesting regulation of anticancer immunity. Thus, exploring the gene expression profile of PBMCs may be a surrogate approach for the assessment of local HCC-infiltrating mononuclear inflammatory cells.

Substitution of amino acid 70 in the hepatitis C virus core region of genotype 1b is an important predictor of elevated alpha-fetoprotein in patients without hepatocellular carcinoma

Previous studies identified amino acid (aa) substitutions of the hepatitis C virus core region of genotype 1b (HCV-1b core region) and elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels as predictors of poor virologic response to pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) plus ribavirin (RBV), and also as risk factors for hepatocarcinogenesis. The present study evaluated the impact of aa substitutions of HCV-1b core region on AFP, as a surrogate marker of hepatocarcinogenesis, on AFP levels in 569 Japanese patients with HCV-1b but without HCC, and investigated the predictive factors of elevated AFP (> or =11 microg/L). High AFP levels were detected in 27.4% of the patients. The rate of hepatocarcinogenesis in a group of 109 patients who received IFN monotherapy and followed-up for 15 years, was significantly higher in patients with abnormal than normal AFP. Multivariate analysis of 569 patients identified fibrosis stage (F3,4), aspartate aminotransferase (> or =76 IU/L), substitution of aa 70 (glutamine or histidine), and platelet count (<15.0 x 10(4)/microl) as significant determinants of elevated AFP. In 49 patients with abnormal AFP levels and substitutions at aa 70 who were treated with PEG-IFN + RBV, the rate of normalization of AFP was significantly lower in non-virological responders (28.6%) than in transient (71.4%) and sustained (100%) virological responders. The results indicated that substitution of aa 70 of HCV-1b core region is an important predictor of elevated AFP in non-HCC patients, and that eradication of the mutant virus normalizes AFP. The results highlight the importance of eradication of mutant type virus of aa 70 for reducing the risk of hepatocarcinogenesis.

Changes in viral load and HBsAg and HBeAg status with age in HBV chronic carriers in The Gambia

BACKGROUND

Little is known about changes in hepatitis B viral load (HBV DNA) in relation to age in Africa. The aim of this study is to determine the natural course of HBV chronic infection, particularly in relation to sequential changes in serum HBV DNA levels and hepatitis B surface (HBsAg) antigen/hepatitis e antigen (HBeAg) status by age.

METHODS

The study was conducted on 190 HBV chronic carriers, aged 1-19 years who were followed for 19 years. 160, 99 and 123 were traced at 5, 9 and 19 years later. All available samples were tested for HBsAg and HBeAg, whilst 170, 61, 63 and 81 were tested for HBV DNA at the baseline, and at 5, 9 and 19 years following recruitment.

RESULTS

In general HBeAg which correlated with high levels of HBV DNA was lost at a much faster rate than HBsAg. 86% of the carriers who were recruited at the age of 1-4 yrs lost HBeAg by the age of 19 years compared to 30% who lost HBsAg. HBeAg negative carriers had serum HBV DNA levels of < 105 copies per mL, HBV DNA positivity declined from 100% in 1-4 yrs old carriers at recruitment to 62.5%,60% and 88% at 5, 9 and 19 years respectively following recruitment.

CONCLUSION

After 19 years of follow up, the majority of HBV surface antigen carriers had lost HBeAg positivity and had low levels of viral replication. However small proportions (10-20%) retained HBeAg and continue to have high levels of viral replication.

Influence of hepatitis B virus X and core promoter mutations on hepatocellular carcinoma among patients infected with subgenotype C2

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotypes/subgenotypes and their related mutations in the HBV genome have been reported to be associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). To determine the HCC-associated mutations of the HBV genome in the entire X, core promoter, and precore/core regions, a cross-sectional control study was conducted comparing 80 Japanese patients infected with HBV C2 and suffering from HCC with 80 age-, sex-, and hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) status-matched patients without HCC (non-HCC group). Each HBeAg-positive group (31 with HCC; 29 without HCC) and HBeAg-negative group (49 with HCC; 51 without HCC) was also matched with respect to age and sex. The C1479, T1485, H1499, A1613, T1653, V1753, T1762/A1764, and A1896 mutations were frequent in this population. The prevalences of the T1653 mutation in the box alpha region and the V1753 and T1762/A1764 mutations in the basal core promoter region were significantly higher in the HCC group than in the non-HCC group (56% versus 30%, 50% versus 24%, and 91% versus 73% [P = 0.0013, P = 0.0010, and P = 0.0035, respectively]). The platelet count was significantly lower for the HCC group than for the non-HCC group (10.7 x 10(4) +/- 5.1 x 10(4) versus 17.3 x 10(4) +/- 5.1 x 10(4) platelets/mm(3) [P < 0.0001]). Regardless of HBeAg status, the prevalence of the T1653 mutation was higher in the HCC group (52% versus 24% [P = 0.036] for HBeAg-positive patients and 59% versus 33% [P = 0.029] for HBeAg-negative patients). In the multivariate analysis, the presence of T1653, the presence of V1753, and a platelet count of < or =10 x 10(4)/mm(3) were independent predictive factors for HCC (odds ratios [95% confidence intervals], 4.37 [1.53 to 12.48], 7.98 [2.54 to 25.10], and 24.39 [8.11 to 73.33], respectively). Regardless of HBeAg status, the T1653 mutation increases the risk of HCC in Japanese patients with HBV/C2.

Clinical utility of AFP-L3% measurement in North American patients with HCV-related cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP-L3%) has been reported to be useful in the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Japan. The aim of this prospective study was to compare the clinical utility of AFP-L3% with that of total AFP in North American patients.

METHODS

Patients with chronic hepatitis (CH) C virus-related cirrhosis from 7 clinical sites were prospectively followed every 3-6 months for 2 yr.

RESULTS

Of the 372 patients evaluated, 40 had hepatitis C virus-related HCC at entry and 332 entered the prospective trial. Of the latter, 34 developed HCC and 298 remained free of HCC. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for AFP were 60.8%, 71.1%, 34.4%, and 88.0% with a cutoff of 20 ng/mL and 21.6%, 98.7%, 80.0%, and 83.5% with a cutoff of 200 ng/mL, compared to 36.5%, 91.6%, 51.9%, and 85.3% for AFP-L3% with a cutoff of 10%. In those with an elevated AFP (20-200 ng/mL), AFP-L3% had a specificity of 86.6% and an NPV of 80.7%. Multivariate analysis identified AFP, AFP-L3%, and age as independent predictors of HCC. Elevated AFP-L3% was associated with a lower cumulative HCC-free rate at 2 yr (58.9%) than was AFP (82.0%, P= 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of HCC was significantly higher in patients with elevated AFP-L3% than in those with elevated AFP. The high specificity of AFP-L3% persisted among patients with elevated AFP (20-200 ng/mL) and suggests that AFP-L3% has clinical utility in HCV patients with AFP of 20-200 ng/mL.

Incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Independent predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis are not well established.

METHODS

We created a cohort of 2126 patients (41% with hepatitis C virus [HCV] infection) who sought care from all Veterans Affairs health care centers in the northwest United States from 1994 to 2005 and who had a diagnosis of cirrhosis recorded in inpatient or outpatient medical records.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up period of 3.6 years, 100 patients were diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (incidence, 1.3 per 100 patient-years). Important predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in multivariate models included HCV infection (adjusted hazard ratio [ahr], 3.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-5.3); hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (ahr, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.4-7.7); HBV core antibody (ahr, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.8); obesity (ahr, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3-4.9), and overweight (ahr, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.5-5.4) relative to patients with a body mass index of < 25 kg/m2, diabetes (ahr, 1.5; 95% CI, 0.9-2.5), and low platelet count (relative to patients with a platelet count of > 266 thousands/microL, the ahr was 2.1 [95% CI, 0.8-5.6] in patients with a platelet count of 180-266 thousands/microL, 3.3 [95% CI, 1.3-8.0] in patients with a platelet count of 111-179 thousands/microL, and the ahr was 4.7 [95% CI, 2.0-11.4] in patients with a platelet count of < or = 110 thousands/microL).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified 6 important predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in multivariate models (including relatively novel predictors such as increased body mass index, HBV core antibody, and low platelet count), which suggest a means of predicting the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis and optimizing surveillance strategies.

Viral Hepatitis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common tumor worldwide, and one of the fastest rising tumors as a result of chronic hepatitis B and C infection. The patients at risk for developing HCC are those with underlying cirrhosis secondary to viral hepatitis. External factors such as alcohol, tobacco, obesity, and diabetes increase the risk of HCC among those with chronic viral hepatitis. Surveillance of patients with cirrhosis with alpha-fetoprotein and ultrasound has been shown to reduce survival. The diagnosis of HCC is established by the presence of an arterially enhancing mass in the presence of cirrhosis. Viral hepatitis represents an opportunity for prevention of HCC.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C virus-related chronic liver disease

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide due to the high prevalence of HCV infection and the high rate of HCC occurrence in patients with HCV cirrhosis. A striking increase in HCC incidence has been observed during the past decades in most industrialized countries, partly related to the growing number of patients infected by HCV. HCC is currently the main cause of death in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, a fact that justifies screening as far as curative treatments apply only in patients with small tumors. As a whole, treatment options are similar in patients with cirrhosis whatever the cause. Chemoprevention could be also helpful in the near future. It is strongly suggested that antiviral treatment of HCV infection could prevent HCC occurrence, even in cirrhotic patients, mainly when a sustained virological response is obtained.