Reduced incidence of hepatitis C in 9 villages in rural Egypt: Progress towards national elimination goals

Economic evaluation of mass screening as a strategy for hepatitis C virus elimination in South Korea

BACKGROUND

This study examines Hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening scenarios to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination targets (incidence ≤5 per 100,000, mortality ≤2 per 100,000) and assesses their timeframes and cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

A closed cohort model of Koreans aged 30-79 in 2020 projected HCV incidence and mortality over 20 years. Economic evaluations used a dynamic transmission model, considering prevalent and annual incident cases. This approach addresses the limitations of previous models that neglected annual new HCV infections. Nine scenarios with varying screening intervals were created considering health checkup uptake, treatment rates, and HCV incidence reduction. Economic evaluations from the healthcare system's perspective employed cost-utility and cost-benefit analyses.

RESULTS

Without national HCV screening, incidence slightly decreases, whereas mortality triples over 20 years. Introducing HCV screening offers five scenarios to meet WHO targets in 20 years. The quickest, involving biennial screening, high uptake, and a 30% incidence reduction, meets the incidence target at 6 years and mortality target at 14 years. For the most cost-efficient scenario, screening every 4 years with moderate uptake and a 20% incidence reduction meets the incidence target at 17 years and mortality target at 18 years. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) is $8,867 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), with a Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of 1.60.

CONCLUSION

The absence of HCV screening impedes elimination goals and increases mortality. Biennial screening, with high participation and treatment rates, rapidly achieves targets but is less economically efficient. Screening every 4 years with moderate uptake and treatment rates is economically feasible and meets elimination goals within 20 years. Rapid screening implementation is crucial for effective HCV elimination.

An agent-based model to simulate the transmission dynamics of bloodborne pathogens within hospitals

Mathematical models are powerful tools to analyze pathogen spread and assess control strategies in healthcare settings. Nevertheless, available models focus on nosocomial transmission through direct contact or aerosols rather than through blood, even though bloodborne pathogens remain a significant source of iatrogenic infectious risk. Herein, we propose an agent-based SEI (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected) model to reproduce the transmission of bloodborne pathogens dynamically within hospitals. This model simulates the dynamics of patients between hospital wards, from admission to discharge, as well as the dynamics of the devices used during at-risk invasive procedures, considering that patient contamination occurs after exposure to a contaminated device. We first illustrate the use of this model through a case study on hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Egypt. Model parameters, such as HCV upon-admission prevalence and transition probabilities between wards or ward-specific probabilities of undergoing different invasive procedures, are informed with data collected in Ain Shams University Hospital in Cairo. Our results suggest a low risk of HCV acquisition for patients hospitalized in this university hospital. However, we show that in a low-resource hospital, frequent device shortages could lead to increased risk. We also find that systematically screening patients in a few selected high-risk wards could significantly reduce this risk. We then further explore potential model applications through a second illustrative case study based on HBV nosocomial transmission in Ethiopia. In the future, this model could be used to predict the potential burden of emerging bloodborne pathogens and help implement effective control strategies in various hospital contexts.

Modeling of randomized hepatitis C vaccine trials: Bridging the gap between controlled human infection models and real-word testing

Global elimination of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) remains difficult without an effective vaccine. Since injection drug use is the leading cause of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission in Western Europe and North America, people who inject drugs (PWID) are an important population for testing HCV vaccine effectiveness in randomized-clinical trials (RCTs). However, RCTs in PWID are inherently challenging. To accelerate vaccine development, controlled human infection (CHI) models have been suggested as a means to identify effective vaccines. To bridge the gap between CHI models and real-world testing, we developed an agent-based model simulating a two-dose vaccine to prevent CHC in PWID, representing 32,000 PWID in metropolitan Chicago and accounting for networks and HCV infections. We ran 500 trial simulations under 50 and 75% assumed vaccine efficacy (aVE) and sampled HCV infection status of recruited in silico PWID. The mean estimated vaccine efficacy (eVE) for 50 and 75% aVE was 48% (SD ± 12) and 72% (SD ± 11), respectively. For both conditions, the majority of trials (∼71%) resulted in eVEs within 1 SD of the mean, demonstrating a robust trial design. Trials that resulted in eVEs >1 SD from the mean (lowest eVEs of 3 and 35% for 50 and 75% aVE, respectively), were more likely to have imbalances in acute infection rates across trial arms. Modeling indicates robust trial design and high success rates of finding vaccines to be effective in real-life trials in PWID. However, with less effective vaccines (aVEs∼50%) there remains a higher risk of concluding poor vaccine efficacy due to post-randomization imbalances.

Hepatitis C Elimination in Egypt: Story of Success

Egypt has long been overwhelmed by the hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, and it used to be the country with the world's highest prevalence rates. The disease had been a significant public health problem, affecting millions of Egyptians and posing severe economic and social challenges. By the early 2000s, it was estimated that around 10% of the Egyptian population was infected with HCV. However, in recent years, with the availability of direct-acting antiviral therapies, the country has made enormous steps in combating this public health threat. The combination of innovative health strategies and political will enabled Egypt to establish a successful model of care for HCV management and to be the first country to eliminate hepatitis C, setting a model for the rest of the world. In 2023, Egypt became the first country to fulfill the World Health Organization's set programmatic criteria of reduction of hepatitis C incidence and mortalities to levels close to elimination of disease or achieve the "gold tier" status on the path to disease elimination.

Prevalence of chronic HCV infection in EU/EEA countries in 2019 using multiparameter evidence synthesis

Background

Epidemiological data are crucial to monitoring progress towards the 2030 Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination targets. Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of chronic HCV infection (cHCV) in the European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) countries in 2019.

Methods

Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) was used to produce national estimates of cHCV defined as: π = πrecρrec + πexρex + πnonρnon; πrec, πex, and πnon represent cHCV prevalence among recent people who inject drugs (PWID), ex-PWID, and non-PWID, respectively, while ρrec, ρex, and ρnon represent the proportions of these groups in the population. Information sources included the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) national operational contact points (NCPs) and prevalence database, the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction databases, and the published literature.

Findings

The cHCV prevalence in 29 of 30 EU/EEA countries in 2019 was 0.50% [95% Credible Interval (CrI): 0.46%, 0.55%]. The highest cHCV prevalence was observed in the eastern EU/EEA (0.88%; 95% CrI: 0.81%, 0.94%). At least 35.76% (95% CrI: 33.07%, 38.60%) of the overall cHCV prevalence in EU/EEA countries was associated with injecting drugs.

Interpretation

Using MPES and collaborating with ECDC NCPs, we estimated the prevalence of cHCV in the EU/EEA to be low. Some areas experience higher cHCV prevalence while a third of prevalent cHCV infections was attributed to PWID. Further efforts are needed to scale up prevention measures and the diagnosis and treatment of infected individuals, especially in the east of the EU/EEA and among PWID.

Funding

ECDC.

Changes in the Etiologies of Liver Cancer in Upper Egypt over a Decade from 2010 to 2020: A Single Tertiary Care Center Study

Yasser Fouad The profile of liver diseases in Egypt is changing dramatically and viral hepatitis is declining, while the fatty liver disease is increasing dramatically. However, the impact of these changes on the profile of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. Therefore, we determined the temporal trends in the etiologies of HCC in Egypt over a decade. We retrospectively analyzed data from consecutive patients who were diagnosed with HCC over 10 years (2010-2020) in a large center in Upper Egypt. Standard tests were utilized to diagnose hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus. In the absence of other liver disorders, the presence of obesity, or diabetes in the absence of other risk factors, metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) was diagnosed. A total of 1,368 HCC patients were included, in which 985 (72%) had HCV, 58 (4%) had hepatitis B virus, and 143 (10.5%) had MAFLD, 1 patient had hemochromatosis, 1 had autoimmune liver disease, and 180 (13%) patients were with unknown cause. The annual proportions of MAFLD-related HCC were increased significantly between 8.3% in 2010 and 20.6% in 2020 ( p  = 0.001), while HCV-related HCC declined from 84.8 to 66.7% ( p  = 0.001). Throughout the study period, there were significant increases in the age at diagnosis of HCC, the proportion of female patients, obesity, diabetes, and less severe liver dysfunction at diagnosis ( p  < 0.05 for all). With the decline of HCV, MAFLD is becoming a major cause of HCC in Egypt, which has increased substantially over the past 10 years. This study urges the creation of comprehensive action strategies to address this growing burden.

Hepatitis C

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a hepatotropic RNA virus that can cause acute and chronic hepatitis, with progressive liver damage resulting in cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, and hepatocellular carcinoma. In 2016, WHO called for the elimination of HCV infection as a public health threat by 2030. Despite some progress, an estimated 57 million people were living with HCV infection in 2020, and 300 000 HCV-related deaths occur per year. The development of direct-acting antiviral therapy has revolutionised clinical care and generated impetus for elimination, but simplified and broadened HCV screening, enhanced linkage to care, and higher coverage of treatment and primary prevention strategies are urgently required.

Core indicators related to the elimination of hepatitis B and C virus infection in South Korea: A nationwide study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To eliminate hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) according to the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria in 2021, this study investigated the national core indicators representing the current status of viral hepatitis B and C in South Korea.

METHODS

We analyzed the incidence, linkage-to-care, treatment, and mortality rates of HBV and HCV infection using the integrated nationwide big data of South Korea.

RESULTS

According to data from 2018-2020, the incidence of acute HBV infection in South Korea was 0.71 cases per 100,000 population; tthe linkage-to-care rate was only 39.4%. Among those who need hepatitis B treatment, the treatment rate was 67.3%, which was less than 80% reported in the WHO program index. The annual liver-related mortality due to HBV was 18.85 cases per 100,000 population, exceeding the WHO target of four; the most frequent cause of death was liver cancer (54.1%). The annual incidence of newly diagnosed HCV infection was 11.9 cases per 100,000 population, which was higher than the WHO impact target of five. Among HCV-infected patients, the linkage-to-care rate was 65.5% while the treatment rate was 56.8%, which were below the targets of 90% and 80%, respectively. The liver-related annual mortality rate due to HCV infection was 2.02 cases per 100,000 population.

CONCLUSION

Many of the current indicators identified in the Korean population did not satisfy the WHO criteria for validation of viral hepatitis elimination. Hence, a comprehensive national strategy should be urgently developed with continuous monitoring of the targets in South Korea.

Impacts of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme for viral hepatitis C: A cost-effectiveness model

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Egypt used to have one of the highest prevalences of HCV infection worldwide. The Egyptian Ministry of Health launched a national campaign for the detection and management of HCV to reduce its burden. This study aims to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the costs and benefits of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme.

METHODS

A disease burden and economic impact model was populated with the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme data to assess direct medical costs, health effects measured in disability-adjusted life years and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The scenario was compared to a historical base case, which assumed that no programme had been conducted.

RESULTS

Total number of viremic cases is expected to decrease in 2030 by 86% under the national screening and treatment programme, versus by 41% under the historical base case. Annual discounted direct medical costs are expected to decrease from $178 million in 2018 to $81 million by 2030 under the historical base case, while annual direct medical costs are estimated to have peaked in 2019 at $312 million before declining to $55 million by 2030 under the national screening and treatment programme. Under the programme, annual disability-adjusted life years are expected to decline to 127 647 by 2030, leading to 883 333 cumulative disability-adjusted life years averted over 2018-2030.

CONCLUSIONS

The national screening and treatment programme is highly cost-effective by the year 2021, cost-saving by 2029 and expected to save about $35 million in direct costs and $4705 million in indirect costs by 2030.

Risky sexual practices and hepatitis C viremia among HIV-positive men who have sex with men in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Understanding the risk behaviors associated with sexually-transmitted hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) may inform the public health policies and interventions aiming to achieve HCV microelimination.

METHODS

HIV-positive MSM who had one of the following conditions were enrolled to undergo face-to-face questionnaire interviews to collect information on their sexual practices in the past 12 months: (1) elevation of aminotransferases in the past 6 months; (2) acquisition of sexually transmitted infections in the past 6 months; and (3) previous HCV infections. Plasma HCV RNA were tested at enrolment and every 3 months during follow-up. Baseline characteristics and risky behaviors were compared to identify factors associated with HCV viremia between HCV-viremic MSM and HCV-aviremic MSM in multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Among 781 MSM with a median age of 36 years, 57 (7.3%) had HCV viremia and 724 (92.7%) no HCV viremia during follow-up. A high proportion (38.9%) of the participants reported having used recreational drugs in the past 12 months, with 34.4% of them having slamming, but only 4.8% reported having shared their injection equipment. In multivariate analysis, use of recreational drugs (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.14; 95% CI, 1.16-3.96), having participated in group sex (aOR, 2.35; 95% CI 1.24-4.40) and having had condomless receptive anal intercourse (aOR, 1.97; 95% CI 1.07-3.62) were significantly associated with HCV viremia.

CONCLUSION

Among high-risk HIV-positive MSM, use of recreational drugs and risky sexual contacts were associated with HCV viremia, suggesting the mucosal contacts as the major route of HCV transmission.

Hepatitis C microelimination among people living with HIV in Taiwan

To reach the WHO target of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination by 2025, Taiwan started to implement free-of-charge direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment programme in 2017. Evaluating the progress of HCV microelimination among people living with HIV (PLWH) is a critical step to identify the barriers to HCV elimination. PLWH seeking care at a major hospital designated for HIV care in Taiwan between January 2011 and December 2021 were retrospectively included. For PLWH with HCV-seropositive or HCV seroconversion during the study period, serial HCV RNA testing was performed using archived samples to confirm the presence of HCV viremia and estimate the prevalence and incidence of HCV viremia. Overall, 4199 PLWH contributed to a total of 27,258.75 person-years of follow-up (PYFU). With the reimbursement of DAAs and improvement of access to treatments, the prevalence of HCV viremia has declined from its peak of 6.21% (95% CI, 5.39–7.12%) in 2018 to 2.09% (95% CI, 1.60–2.77%) in 2021 (decline by 66.4% [95% CI, 55.4–74.7%]); the incidence has declined from 25.94 per 1000 PYFU (95% CI, 20.44–32.47) in 2019 to 12.15% per 1000 PYFU (95% CI, 8.14–17.44) (decline by 53.2% [95% CI, 27.3–70.6%]). However, the proportion of HCV reinfections continued to increase and accounted for 82.8% of incident HCV infections in 2021. We observed significant declines of HCV viremia among PLWH with the expansion of the DAA treatment programme in Taiwan. Further improvement of the access to DAA retreatments is warranted to achieve the goal of HCV microelimination.

Usability and acceptability of oral-based HCV self-testing among key populations: a mixed-methods evaluation in Tbilisi, Georgia

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus self-testing (HCVST) is an additional approach that may expand access to HCV testing. We conducted a mixed-methods cross-sectional observational study to assess the usability and acceptability of HCVST among people who inject drugs (PWID), men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender (TG) people in Tbilisi, Georgia.

METHODS

The study was conducted from December 2019 to June 2020 among PWID at one harm reduction site and among MSM/TG at one community-based organization. We used a convergent parallel mixed-methods design. Usability was assessed by observing errors made and difficulties faced by participants. Acceptability was assessed using an interviewer-administered semi-structured questionnaire. A subset of participants participated in cognitive and in-depth interviews.

RESULTS

A total of 90 PWID, 84 MSM and 6 TG were observed performing HCVST. PWID were older (median age 35 vs 24) and had a lower level of education compared to MSM/TG (27% vs 59%). The proportion of participants who completed all steps successfully without assistance was 60% among PWID and 80% among MSM/TG. The most common error was in sample collection and this was observed more often among PWID than MSM/TG (21% vs 6%; p = 0.002). More PWID requested assistance during HCVST compared to MSM/TG (22% vs 8%; p = 0.011). Acceptability was high in both groups (98% vs 96%; p = 0.407). Inter-reader agreement was 97% among PWID and 99% among MSM/TG. Qualitative data from cognitive (n = 20) and in-depth interviews (n = 20) was consistent with the quantitative data confirming a high usability and acceptability.

CONCLUSIONS

HCVST was highly acceptable among key populations in Georgia of relatively high educational level, and most participants performed HCVST correctly. A significant difference in usability was observed among PWID compared to MSM/TG, indicating that PWID may benefit from improved messaging and education as well as options to receive direct assistance when self-testing for HCV.

Case study of hepatitis C virus control in Egypt: impact of access program

BACKGROUND

Although Egypt was the country with the highest prevalence of hepatitis C in the world, the availability of sofosbuvir based therapies enabled Egypt to be the first country to eliminate hepatitis C and cure more than 4 million chronically infected patients.

PURPOSE

This is a small tribute to John Martin.

METHODOLOGY AND CONCLUSION

Here I present a summary of the HCV problem in Egypt, and how we, through Gilead's Access program under his leadership, were able to eliminate the disease.

Methods and indicators to validate country reductions in incidence of hepatitis C virus infection to elimination levels set by WHO

One of the main goals of the 2016 Global Health Sector Strategy on viral hepatitis is the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health problem by 2030, defined as an 80% reduction in incidence and 65% reduction in mortality relative to 2015. Although monitoring HCV incidence is key to validating HCV elimination, use of the gold-standard method, which involves prospective HCV retesting of people at risk, can be prohibitively resource-intensive. Additionally, few countries collected quality data in 2015 to enable an 80% decrease by 2030 to be calculated. Here, we first review different methods of monitoring HCV incidence and discuss their resource implications and applicability to various populations. Second, using mathematical models developed for various global settings, we assess whether trends in HCV chronic prevalence or HCV antibody prevalence or scale-up levels for HCV testing, treatment, and preventative interventions can be used as reliable alternative indicators to validate the HCV incidence target. Third, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of an absolute HCV incidence target and suggest a suitable threshold. Finally, we propose three options that countries can use to validate the HCV incidence target, depending on the available surveillance infrastructure.

Hepatitis C virus: A critical approach to who really needs treatment

Introduction of effective drugs in the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has prompted the World Health Organization to declare a global eradication target by 2030. Propositions have been made to screen the general population and treat all HCV carriers irrespective of the disease status. A year ago the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus appeared causing a worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 disease. Huge financial resources were redirected, and the pandemic became the first priority in every country. In this review, we examined the feasibility of the World Health Organization elimination program and the actual natural course of HCV infection. We also identified and analyzed certain comorbidity factors that may aggravate the progress of HCV and some marginalized subpopulations with characteristics favoring HCV dissemination. Alcohol consumption, HIV coinfection and the presence of components of metabolic syndrome including obesity, hyperuricemia and overt diabetes were comorbidities mostly responsible for increased liver-related morbidity and mortality of HCV. We also examined the significance of special subpopulations like people who inject drugs and males having sex with males. Finally, we proposed a different micro-elimination screening and treatment program that can be implemented in all countries irrespective of income. We suggest that screening and treatment of HCV carriers should be limited only in these particular groups.

Regional progress towards hepatitis C elimination in the Western Pacific Region, 2015-2020

Chronic hepatitis C (HCV) infection is a major global public health threat and in 2019 there were an estimated 58 million infected globally and 290,000 deaths. Elimination of viral hepatitis B/C as a public health threat by 2030 is defined as a 90% incidence reduction and a 65% mortality reduction. The Western Pacific region is one of the most affected regions with 10 million people living with HCV, one-fifth of the global burden. We review progress towards HCV elimination in the Western Pacific region since 2015. Key developments in the region, which comprises of 37 high-and-middle-income countries, include the following: 20 countries have national hepatitis action plans, 19 have conducted recent disease burden and investment cases, 10 have scaled-up hepatitis services at primary health care level, and in 11 countries, domestic financing including social health insurance support DAA costs. We highlight six countries' experience in navigating the path towards HCV elimination: Cambodia, China, Malaysia, Mongolia, Philippines, and Viet Nam. Future initiatives to accelerate elimination are expanding access to community-based testing using HCV point-of-care tests among at-risk and general populations; adopting decentralized and integrated HCV one-stop services at harm reduction sites, detention settings and primary care; expanding treatment to include children and adolescents; address stigma and discrimination; and ensuring sustainable financing through domestic resources to scale-up testing, treatment and prevention. The COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on hepatitis response across the region on community and facility-based testing, treatment initiation, monitoring and cancer screening, which is projected to delay elimination goals.