State-transition modeling: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force--3

Cost-effectiveness of a machine learning risk prediction model (LungFlag) in the selection of high-risk individuals for non-small cell lung cancer screening in Spain

OBJECTIVE

The LungFlag risk prediction model uses individualized clinical variables to identify individuals at high-risk of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) for screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT). This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of LungFlag implementation in the Spanish setting for the identification of individuals at high-risk of NSCLC.

METHODS

A model combining a decision-tree with a Markov model was adapted to the Spanish setting to calculate health outcomes and costs over a lifetime horizon, comparing two hypothetical scenarios: screening with LungFlag versus non-screening, and screening with LungFlag versus screening the entire population meeting 2013 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria. Model inputs were obtained from the literature and the clinical practice of a multidisciplinary expert panel. Only direct costs (€of 2023), obtained from local sources, were considered. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of our results.

RESULTS

A cohort of 3,835,128 individuals meeting 2013 USPSTF criteria would require 2,147,672 LDCTs scans. However, using LungFlag would only require 232,120 LDCTs scans. Cost-effectiveness results showed that LungFlag was dominant versus non-screening scenario, and outperformed the scenario where the entire population were screened since the observed loss of effectiveness (-224,031 life years [LYs] and -97,612 quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]) was largely offset by the significant cost savings provided (€7,053 million). The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for this strategy of screening the whole population versus using LungFlag was €72,000/QALY, showing that LungFlag is cost-effective. Various were described, such as the source of the efficacy or adherence rates, and other limitations inherent to cost-effectiveness analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Using LungFlag for the selection of high-risk individuals for NSCLC screening in Spain would be a cost-effective strategy over screening the entire population meeting USPSTF 2013 criteria and is dominant over non-screening.

Evaluating Semi-Markov Processes and Other Epidemiological Time-to-Event Models by Computing Disease Sojourn Density as Partial Differential Equations

IntroductionEpidemiological models benefit from incorporating detailed time-to-event data to understand how disease risk evolves. For example, decompensation risk in liver cirrhosis depends on sojourn time spent with cirrhosis. Semi-Markov and related models capture these details by modeling time-to-event distributions based on published survival data. However, implementations of semi-Markov processes rely on Monte Carlo sampling methods, which increase computational requirements and introduce stochastic variability. Explicitly calculating the evolving transition likelihood can avoid these issues and provide fast, reliable estimates.MethodsWe present the sojourn time density framework for computing semi-Markov and related models by calculating the evolving sojourn time probability density as a system of partial differential equations. The framework is parametrized by commonly used hazard and models the distribution of current disease state and sojourn time. We describe the mathematical background, a numerical method for computation, and an example model of liver disease.ResultsModels developed with the sojourn time density framework can directly incorporate time-to-event data and serial events in a deterministic system. This increases the level of potential model detail over Markov-type models, improves parameter identifiability, and reduces computational burden and stochastic uncertainty compared with Monte Carlo methods. The example model of liver disease was able to accurately reproduce targets without extensive calibration or fitting and required minimal computational burden.ConclusionsExplicitly modeling sojourn time distribution allows us to represent semi-Markov systems using detailed survival data from epidemiological studies without requiring sampling, avoiding the need for calibration, reducing computational time, and allowing for more robust probabilistic sensitivity analyses.HighlightsTime-inhomogeneous semi-Markov models and other time-to-event-based modeling approaches can capture risks that evolve over time spent with a disease.We describe an approach to computing these models that represents them as partial differential equations representing the evolution of the sojourn time probability density.This sojourn time density framework incorporates complex data sources on competing risks and serial events while minimizing computational complexity.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibitor Compared With Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor Among Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction in Malaysia

OBJECTIVES

This study compared the costs and effectiveness of angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) for the heart failure with reduced ejection fraction population from the Malaysian Ministry of Health's perspective.

METHODS

A 3-state Markov model, with a monthly cycle, was constructed to estimate the lifetime healthcare costs, quality-adjusted life year (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of ARNI and ACEI. The monthly baseline risks for all-cause mortality and heart failure (HF) hospitalization were estimated from the PARADIGM-HF trial and age-adjusted to the Malaysian population. The treatment effects were obtained from the PARADIGM-HF trial. All-cause mortality risks from hospitalization, utility values, and costs were derived from local studies. All costs were adjusted to 2023. The ICER was compared with Malaysian Ringgit (RM) 55 426 per QALY (one gross domestic product per capita).

RESULTS

Despite ARNI being more expensive compared with ACEI, it gained more QALYs, resulting in an ICER of RM46 498 per QALY. One-way sensitivity analyses found that the key model drivers were the relative treatment effects on cardiovascular mortality, duration of treatment effects, and time horizon. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis estimated that ARNI is 66% cost-effective at the cost-effectiveness threshold of RM55 426 per QALY. Subgroup analysis showed that ICER increased with age. Scenario analysis demonstrated that initiation of ARNI alongside sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT-2i) produces more favorable ICER and ARNI without SGLT-2i.

CONCLUSIONS

At the cost-effectiveness threshold of RM55 426 per QALY, ARNI is cost-effective compared with ACEI for the heart failure with reduced ejection fraction population. Expanding patient access to ARNI is likely to improve health outcomes cost-effectively.

Analysis of the economically justifiable price of mepolizumab in adults with asthma in Colombia

INTRODUCTION

Asthma imposes a critical economic burden on health systems, especially with the incorporation of new drugs. Recently, mepolizumab has been approved to prevent exacerbations in patients with eosinophilic asthma, however their high cost constitutes a barrier for their use, especially in middle- and low-income countries. This study aimed to estimate the economically justifiable price of mepolizumab for preventing exacerbations in patients with severe asthma in Colombia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A model was developed using the microsimulation to estimate the quality-adjusted costs and life years of two interventions: mepolizumab versus not applying standard treatment without mepolizumab. This analysis was made during a lifetime horizon and from a third-payer perspective. We analyzed the economically justifiable price using two recent willingness to pay (WTP) estimates in Colombia ($4,828 and $5,128) and $19,992, equivalent to up to three times the GDP per capita, as previously used in conjunction with the two estimates mentioned above.

RESULTS

At current costs of US$781 per dose of 100 mg of mepolizumab, this drug is not cost-effective using a WTP of U$4828, U$ 5128, and U$19 992 per QALY. Based on the thresholds of $4,828, $5,128, and $19,992 per QALY assessed in this study, the economically justifiable costs of mepolizumab were determined to be $147, $165, and $691 per dose, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The economically justifiable cost for mepolizumab in Colombia is between $147 and $691 per dose, depending on the WTP used. This result should encourage more studies in the region that optimize decision-making processes when incorporating this drug into the health plans of each country.

Cost effectiveness analysis of expanding tuberculosis preventive therapy to household contacts aged 5-14 years in the Philippines

Background

Children aged 5-14 years who are household contacts (HHCs) of index people with active TB disease (PWTB) have limited coverage for TB preventive therapy (TPT) due to variable uptake of the national guideline recommendations in the Philippines. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis evaluating the expansion of TB infection (TBI) testing and treatment among pediatric (5-14 years) HHCs of index PWTB in the Philippines to assist the National TB program in choosing the most cost-effective testing and treatment strategy for TBI among HHCs of index PWTB.

Methods

Using a Markov state transition model, eligible HHCs age 5-14 years are screened for TBI with either the tuberculin skin test (TST) or interferon gamma release assay (IGRA). Those who test positive are then simulated to receive one of the following TPT strategies: 6 months of daily isoniazid (6H), 3 months of weekly isoniazid and rifapentine (3HP), 3 months of daily isoniazid plus rifampicin (3HR) and the current practice of no testing or treatment for TBI (NTT). The analysis assesses the projected cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained for every strategy from the perspective of the Philippines public healthcare system over a time horizon of 20 years. The total cost and gain in QALYs are presented as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) comparing cost per QALY gained for each strategy over NTT.

Results

Our model estimates that expanding TPT coverage to HHCs aged 5-14 years would be cost-effective with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) ranging from 1,024 $/QALY gained when using TST and 6H (Uncertainty range: 497---2,334) to 2,293 $/QALY gained when IGRA and 3HR are used (Uncertainty range: 1,140 - 5,203). These findings were robust to sensitivity analyses over a wide range of parameter values.

Conclusion

Expanding TPT coverage to HHCs aged 5-14 years is cost-effective when using TST and 6H closely followed by a strategy combining TST and 3HP.

A Comparison of International Modeling Methods for Evaluating Health Economics of Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is an accepted approach to evaluate cancer screening programs. CEA estimates partially depend on modeling methods and assumptions used. Understanding common practice when modeling cancer relies on complete, accessible descriptions of prior work. This review's objective is to comprehensively examine published CEA modeling methods used to evaluate colorectal cancer (CRC) screening from an aspiring modeler's perspective. It compares existing models, highlighting the importance of precise modeling method descriptions and essential factors when modeling CRC progression.

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Scopus electronic databases were used. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards statement and data items from previous systematic reviews formed a template to extract relevant data. Specific focus included model type, natural history, appropriate data sources, and survival analysis.

RESULTS

Seventy-eight studies, with 52 unique models were found. Twelve previously published models were reported in 39 studies, with 39 newly developed models. CRC progression from the onset was commonly modeled, with only 6 models not including it as a model component.

CONCLUSIONS

Modeling methods needed to simulate CRC progression depend on the natural history structure and research requirements. For aspiring modelers, accompanying models with clear overviews and extensive modeling assumption descriptions are beneficial. Open-source modeling would also allow model replicability and result in appropriate decisions suggested for CRC screening programs.

Cost-Effectiveness of Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists in Ischemic and Nonischemic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: Perspective From a Universal Healthcare System

OBJECTIVES

Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) are cornerstones in the management of heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). New MRAs with improved safety profile, such as finerenone and eplerenone, were recently introduced. However, because of typical budget restrictions in middle-income countries, evaluating their cost-effectiveness is essential for optimizing treatment strategies.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian network and Markov influence diagrams to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in international dollars (Int$) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Our model was fed by a systematic review and a network meta-analysis to compare MRAs effectiveness and used data from a cohort of 1066 Brazilian individuals with HFrEF (36% with ischemic and 64% with nonischemic disease).

RESULTS

Over a 10-year time horizon, the treatment with spironolactone, eplerenone, and finerenone compared with no MRA utilization yielded discounted QALY per person of 0.072, 0.111, and 0.034, respectively. The ICERs were Int$7955, Int$6460, and Int$109 840 per QALY gained, respectively. Compared with spironolactone, eplerenone showed an ICER of Int$6178 per QALY gained. Assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of 1 Brazilian per capita gross domestic product (Int$17 589) per QALY gained, the probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggest that spironolactone and eplerenone were cost-effective, respectively, in 87% and 92% of iterations. The 95% CIs were Int$2282 to Int$13 149 for spironolactone and Int$1795 to Int$12 351 for eplerenone per QALY gained. These findings were consistent across several scenarios including ischemic/nonischemic HF.

CONCLUSIONS

Eplerenone is likely the most cost-effective MRA in Brazil considering individuals with both ischemic and nonischemic HFrEF.

How Secondary Interventions Reduce the Burden of Alcohol Consumption at Risk of Cirrhosis: A Public Health Decision-Making Model

BACKGROUND

Better understanding of the kinetics of the consumption of alcohol at risk of cirrhosis (≥ 20 g/day) and the prediction of the burden of alcohol consumption are needed for public health decision-making.

METHODS

Based on individual data from 45 054 individuals, collected from the French Health, Health Care and Insurance Survey between 2002 and 2014, a Markov model was developed to predict the future burden of alcohol consumption ≥ 20 g/day. This estimated the incidence of alcohol intake with an intermediate (20-50 g/day) or high (≥ 50 g/day) risk of cirrhosis. The impact of five primary or secondary interventions was evaluated between 2024 and 2030.

RESULTS

A 1 L increase in per capita alcohol consumption was associated with a 7% increase in the risk of progression to 20-50 g/day and to ≥ 50 g/day (HR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.06-1.07). Female gender was associated with a lower risk (HR = 0.47, 95% CI 0.43-0.51) and age < 45 years with a higher risk (HR = 4.15, 95% CI 2.60-6.63) of consuming ≥ 50 g/day. In 2023, 2.5 million French individuals aged 15-74 years old drank ≥ 20 g/day (5.5%), and 435 000 of these drank ≥ 50 g/day. Based on the status quo (SQ), this prevalence would be 5.1% in 2030, and would not be influenced by primary prevention, but would be reduced by secondary interventions (from -2.0% to -13.7% compared to the SQ depending on the rate of implementation).

CONCLUSIONS

Primary interventions are important to reduce the overall impact of alcohol on health. The strategy of targeting individuals who already drink ≥ 20 g/day of alcohol is more effective in reducing the short-term burden of alcohol consumption at risk of cirrhosis than primary interventions. Thus, primary and secondary interventions need to be implemented jointly.

Exploratory analysis of the economically justifiable price of tezepelumab for asthma severe in Colombia

INTRODUCTION

Asthma severe imposes important economic burden on health systems, especially with the incorporation of new drugs. Recently, tezepelumab has been approved to prevent exacerbations in patients. This study explores the economically justifiable price of tezepelumab for preventing exacerbations in patients with severe asthma.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A static model was developed using the decision tree microsimulation to estimate the quality-adjusted life years of two interventions: a single intramuscular dose of tezepelumab versus not applying tezepelumab. This analysis was made during a time horizon of 50 year and from a third-payer perspective.

RESULTS

Based on thresholds of U$4828, U$ 5128, and U$19 992 per QALY evaluated in this study, we established economically justifiable drug acquisition prices of U$ 795, U$ 835, and U$ 3384 per dose of Tezepelumab. Tezepelumab not was cost-effective using a WTP of U$4828 and U$ 5128. It only was cost effective at WTP of U$19 992 per QALY.

CONCLUSION

The economically justifiable cost for tezepelumab in Colombia is between U$795 to U$3384 per dose, depending on the WTP used to decide its implementation. This result should encourage more studies in the region that optimize decision-making processes when incorporating this drug into the health plans of each country.

Calibration of transition probabilities to model survival of adjuvant trastuzumab for early breast cancer in Indonesia

OBJECTIVES

Cost-effectiveness models fully informed by real-world epidemiological parameters yield the best results, but they are costly to obtain. Model calibration using real-world data/evidence (RWD/E) on routine health indicators can provide an alternative to improve the validity and acceptability of the results. We calibrated the transition probabilities of the reference chemotherapy treatment using RWE on patient overall survival (OS) to model the survival benefit of adjuvant trastuzumab in Indonesia.

METHODS

A Markov model comprising four health states was initially parameterized using the reference-treatment transition probabilities, obtained from published international evidence. We then calibrated these probabilities, targeting a 2-year OS of 86.11 percent from the RWE sourced from hospital registries. We compared projected OS duration and life-years gained (LYG) before and after calibration for the Nelder-Mead, Bound Optimization BY Quadratic Approximation, and generalized reduced gradient (GRG) nonlinear optimization methods.

RESULTS

The pre-calibrated transition probabilities overestimated the 2-year OS (92.25 percent). GRG nonlinear performed best and had the smallest difference with the RWD/E OS. After calibration, the projected OS duration was significantly lower than their pre-calibrated estimates across all optimization methods for both standard chemotherapy (~7.50 vs. 11.00 years) and adjuvant trastuzumab (~9.50 vs. 12.94 years). LYG measures were, however, similar (~2 years) for the pre-calibrated and calibrated models.

CONCLUSIONS

RWD/E calibration resulted in realistically lower survival estimates. Despite the little difference in LYG, calibration is useful to adapt external evidence commonly used to derive transition probabilities to the policy context, thereby enhancing the validity and acceptability of the modeling results.

A Multistate Model Incorporating Relative Survival Extrapolation and Mixed Time Scales for Health Technology Assessment

BACKGROUND

Multistate models have been widely applied in health technology assessment. However, extrapolating survival in a multistate model setting presents challenges in terms of precision and bias. In this article, we develop an individual-level continuous-time multistate model that integrates relative survival extrapolation and mixed time scales.

METHODS

We illustrate our proposed model using an illness-death model. We model the transition rates using flexible parametric models. We update the hesim package and the microsimulation package in R to simulate event times from models with mixed time scales. This feature allows us to incorporate relative survival extrapolation in a multistate setting. We compare several multistate settings with different parametric models (standard vs. flexible parametric models), and survival frameworks (all-cause vs. relative survival framework) using a previous clinical trial as an illustrative example.

RESULTS

Our proposed approach allows relative survival extrapolation to be carried out in a multistate model. In the example case study, the results agreed better with the observed data than did the commonly applied approach using standard parametric models within an all-cause survival framework.

CONCLUSIONS

We introduce a multistate model that uses flexible parametric models and integrates relative survival extrapolation with mixed time scales. It provides an alternative to combine short-term trial data with long-term external data within a multistate model context in health technology assessment.

Sensitivity of Cost-Effectiveness to Inclusion of Adverse Drug Events: A Scoping Review of Economic Models of Pharmacological Interventions for Diabetes, Diabetic Retinopathy, and Diabetic Macular Edema

Purpose

Incorporation of adverse drug events (ADEs) is suboptimal in economic evaluation, and thus the information provided by it may be inaccurate. Better guidance on incorporating ADEs into economic evaluation prompts for exploring whether the results are sensitive to ADEs.

Methods

This scoping review explored 242 cost-effectiveness models for pharmacological interventions for type 1 (T1DM) and 2 diabetes (T2DM), diabetic retinopathy (DR), and diabetic macular edema (DME), in relation to the type of ADEs included in the models (if any), whether the results were sensitive to the ADEs, and what could explain their potential impact.

Results

Of the analyses partly or completely including ADEs, 62% examined their impact on the results, with half of them (50%) reporting ADE-related sensitivity. The models included common to very common ADEs, and some rare but severe ones. The main reasons for excluding ADEs were low incidence (13%) and no reporting in clinical trials (13%). Many analyses reported no reason for the exclusion (53%). The analyses for T1DM and DR or DME included more severe ADEs and reported a higher ADE-related sensitivity compared to the analyses of T2DM (76,2%, 77.8%, and 46.4%, respectively). Higher incidence of ADEs (60,0%) and time trade off method (72,2%) were associated with higher ADE-related sensitivity (72,2%).

Conclusion

Incidence, condition, and the measure of utility were associated with the results being sensitive to ADEs. ADEs are an important outcome for the results of economic evaluation and better guidance on their inclusion and exclusion is needed.

Forecasting stroke and stroke-driven dementia in a rapidly ageing population: a model-based analysis of alternative projection scenarios for Ireland

OBJECTIVE

Understanding future population needs is key for informing stroke service planning. This study aims to evaluate scenarios for future trends in stroke age-specific incidence and case fatality, and estimate their impact on projected stroke and poststroke dementia prevalence in Ireland.

DESIGN

This is an epidemiological modelling study based on a probabilistic Markov model. We extrapolated trends in age-specific stroke incidence and case fatality from 1990 to 2019 and applied these to 2016 to 2046. We defined trend scenarios based on stability and low and high decline, broadly based on the lower and upper bounds of evidence for trends to date. We also examined nonlinear trends involving decelerating decline over time and varying trends by age.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

The study is conducted on the Irish population aged 40-89 years in the period 2022-2046. We used multiple data sources, including systematic review and observational evidence.

INTERVENTIONS

Not applicable.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We projected the incidence and prevalence of stroke (International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes I60-I61, I63-I64), poststroke dementia (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-V) criteria) and poststroke disability (modified Rankin Scale 3-5).

RESULTS

The stable scenario indicated a projected 85 834 stroke survivors in 2046 (95% uncertainty interval (UI)=82 366-89 655), an increase of 45.7% from 2022. Assuming a high incidence decline and low case-fatality decline indicated a 5.4% increase in prevalence. Intermediate scenarios based on lower rates of decline, or decline rates slowing over time, implied an increase between 25.8% and 40.3%. Results did not differ substantially when we varied trends by age.In the stable scenario, we projected 16 978 poststroke dementia prevalent cases in 2046 (95% UI 14 958-19 157), an increase of 58.9% from 2022. In the high decline scenario, the increase would be 24.5%, with intermediate scenarios implying an increase between 41.3% and 56.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Future stroke healthcare needs will vary substantially depending on epidemiological trends. There is an urgent need to both invest in prevention strategies and plan for likely increases in future stroke care needs.

Critical assessment of uncertainty in economic evaluations on influenza vaccines for the elderly population in Spain

BACKGROUND

Influenza is a seasonal infection with a huge impact on morbidity and mortality in older adults, for whom vaccination is recommended. New influenza vaccines for this population have been introduced in Spain in the past 5 years, and a number of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) have been published to aid healthcare decision-making. The objective of this study was to assess possible sources of uncertainty in the CEAs of influenza vaccines for the older adults in Spain.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed to identify Spanish CEAs published since 2016. Potential sources of structural, methodologic and parametric uncertainty in CEA results were systematically analysed using the TRansparent Uncertainty ASsessmenT (TRUST) Tool, quality assessment checklists, and the WHO guidance on economic evaluations of influenza vaccine strategies. The primary sources of efficacy/effectiveness were analysed in depth to ascertain whether they could support the conclusions of the respective CEAs.

RESULTS

Seven CEAs were included. Overall, they were designed and performed in accordance with the applicable guidelines; however, some critical sources of uncertainty were detected, mainly: (1) the choice and use of efficacy/effectiveness data (real-world single season studies, meta-analyses including studies with high risk of bias and/or high heterogeneity with biased interpretation); (2) use of fewer than 5 seasons to estimate influenza burden; (3) generalized use of influenza-like illness data to estimate effectiveness and burden, among others.

CONCLUSIONS

Seemingly well-designed studies may conceal important sources of uncertainty that affect the results. This must be taken into account when interpreting results to support decision-making.

A Systematic Literature Review of Modelling Approaches to Evaluate the Cost Effectiveness of PET/CT for Therapy Response Monitoring in Oncology

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

This systematic literature review addresses model-based cost-effectiveness studies for therapy response monitoring with positron emission tomography (PET) generally combined with low-dose computed tomography (CT) for various cancer types. Given the known heterogeneity in therapy response events, studies should consider patient-level modelling rather than cohort-based modelling because of its flexibility in handling these events and the time to events. This review aims to identify the modelling methods used and includes a systematic assessment of the assumptions made in the current literature.

METHODS

This study was conducted and reported following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 statement. Information sources included electronic bibliographic databases, reference lists of review articles and contact with experts in the fields of nuclear medicine, health technology assessment and health economics. Eligibility criteria included peer-reviewed scientific publications and published grey literature. Literature searches, screening and critical appraisal were conducted by two reviewers independently. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) were used to assess the methodological quality. The Bias in Economic Evaluation (ECOBIAS) checklist was used to determine the risk of bias in the included publications.

RESULTS

The search results included 2959 publications. The number of publications included for data extraction and synthesis was ten, representing eight unique studies. These studies addressed patients with lymphoma, advanced head and neck cancers, brain tumours, non-small cell lung cancer and cervical cancer. All studies addressed response to chemotherapy. No study evaluated response to immunotherapy. Most studies positioned PET/CT as an add-on modality and one study positioned PET/CT as a replacement for conventional imaging (X-ray and contrast-enhanced CT). Three studies reported decision-tree structures, four studies reported cohort-level state-transition models and one study reported a partitioned survival model. No patient-level models were reported. The simulation horizons adopted ranged from 1 year to lifetime. Most studies reported a probabilistic analysis, whereas two studies reported a deterministic analysis only. Two studies conducted a value of information analysis. Multiple studies did not adequately discuss model-specific aspects of bias. Most importantly and regularly observed were a high risk of structural assumptions bias, limited simulation horizon bias and wrong model bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis for therapy response monitoring with PET/CT was based on cohorts of patients instead of individual patients in the current literature. Therefore, the heterogeneity in therapy response events was commonly not addressed appropriately. Further research should include more advanced and patient-level modelling approaches to accurately represent the complex context of clinical practice and, therefore, to be meaningful to support decision making.

REGISTRATION

This review is registered in PROSPERO, the international prospective register of systematic reviews funded by the National Institute for Health Research, with CRD42023402581.

Rationale and design of a randomized clinical trial of integrated eHealth for PrEP and medications for opioid use disorders for women in the criminal legal system. The Athena study

BACKGROUND

Women involved in the criminal legal system have elevated rates of opioid use disorder, which is treatable, and HIV, which is preventable with pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). There are significant social and structural barriers to integrated delivery of PrEP and medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD), limiting women's ability to access these life-saving interventions. In a two parallel-arm randomized controlled trial, we are assessing an innovative eHealth delivery model that integrates PrEP with MOUD and is tailored to meet the specific needs of women involved in the criminal legal system.

METHODS

We will recruit and enroll 250 women involved in the criminal legal system with opioid use disorder across two diverse settings (New Haven, CT and Birmingham, AL). Participants will be randomized to (a) the "Athena strategy," which includes a PrEP decision aid and integrated PrEP/MOUD delivery via eHealth; or (b) enhanced standard of care (SOC) that includes a decision aid-only. During 6-month follow-up, we will assess PrEP initiation as the primary clinical outcome and implementation outcomes that include acceptability, adoption, feasibility, fidelity, implementation cost, and sustainability.

DISCUSSION

Results could help determine if reducing the social and structural barriers to PrEP and MOUD for women involved in the criminal legal system will facilitate engagement in treatment and prevention services, thus alleviating health disparities.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05547048). Registered September 15, 2022. https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05547048?term=NCT05547048&rank=1 .

Ovarian cancer prevention through opportunistic salpingectomy during abdominal surgeries: A cost-effectiveness modeling study

BACKGROUND

There is indication that the fallopian tubes might be involved in ovarian cancer pathogenesis and their removal reduces cancer risk. Hence, bilateral salpingectomy during hysterectomy or sterilization, so called opportunistic salpingectomy (OS), is gaining wide acceptance as a preventive strategy. Recently, it was discussed whether implementation of OS at other gynecologic surgery, e.g., cesarean section, endometriosis excision or myomectomy and even at non-gynecologic abdominal surgery such as cholecystectomy or appendectomy for women with completed family could be feasible. This modeling analysis evaluated the clinical and economic potential of OS at gynecologic and abdominal surgeries.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A state transition model representing all relevant health states (healthy, healthy with hysterectomy or tubal ligation, healthy with other gynecologic or non-gynecologic abdominal surgery, healthy with hysterectomy and salpingectomy, healthy with salpingectomy, healthy with hysterectomy and salpingo-oophorectomy, ovarian cancer and death) was developed and informed with transition probabilities based on inpatient case numbers in Germany (2019). Outcomes for women aged 20-85 years were simulated over annual cycles with 1,200,000 million individuals. We compared four strategies: (I) OS at any suitable abdominal surgery, (II) OS only at any suitable gynecologic surgery, (III) OS only at hysterectomy or sterilization, and (IV) no implementation of OS. Primary outcome measures were prevented ovarian cancer cases and deaths as well as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Volume of eligible interventions in strategy I was 3.5 times greater than in strategy III (286,736 versus 82,319). With strategy IV as reference, ovarian cancer cases were reduced by 15.34% in strategy I, 9.78% in II, and 5.48% in III. Setting costs for OS to €216.19 (calculated from average OS duration and operating room minute costs), implementation of OS would lead to healthcare cost savings as indicated by an ICER of €-8,685.50 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained for strategy I, €-8,270.55/QALY for II, and €-4,511.86/QALY for III. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated stable results over a wide range of input parameters with strategy I being the superior approach in the majority of simulations. However, the extent of cancer risk reduction after OS appeared as the critical factor for effectiveness. Preventable ovarian cancer cases dropped to 4.07% (I versus IV), 1.90% (II versus IV), and 0.37% (III versus IV) if risk reduction would be <27% (hazard ratio [HR] > 0.73). ICER of strategies I and II was lower than the 2× gross domestic product per capita (GDP/C) (€94,366/QALY, Germany 2022) within the range of all tested parameters, but strategy III exceeded this threshold in case-risk reduction was <35% (HR > 0.65). The study is limited to data from the inpatient sector and direct medical costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our model, interdisciplinary implementation of OS in any suitable abdominal surgeries could contribute to prevention of ovarian cancer and reduction of healthcare costs. The broader implementation approach demonstrated substantially better clinical and economic effectiveness and higher robustness with parameter variation. Based on a lifetime cost saving of €20.89 per capita if OS was performed at any suitable abdominal surgery, the estimated total healthcare cost savings in Germany could be more than €10 million annually.

Real-world cost-effectiveness analysis of thymoglobulin versus no induction therapy in kidney transplant recipients at low risk of graft loss

BACKGROUND

A new induction therapy strategy of a single 3 mg/kg dose of rabbit antithymocyte globulin (r-ATG) showed a lower incidence of acute rejection.

METHODS

The objective of this study was to use real-world data to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of r-ATG induction for the prevention of acute rejection (AR) in the first year following kidney transplantation and for kidney graft survival over 1, 4, and 10 years of post-transplantation from the perspective of the national public healthcare system. A Markov state transition model was developed utilizing real-world data extracted from medical invoices from a single center. The study population consisted of adults at low immunological risk undergoing their initial transplantation and received kidneys from either living or deceased donors. The intervention of r-ATG induction was compared to no induction. The clinical outcomes considered for this analysis were acute rejection, cytomegalovirus infection/disease, death, graft loss, and retransplantation.

RESULTS

The cost-effectiveness analysis in the first year revealed that the r-ATG group was more cost-effective, with an ICER of US$ 399.96 per avoided AR episode, an effectiveness gain of 0.01 year in graft survival and a total incremental cost of US$ 147.50. The 4- and 10-year analyses revealed an effectiveness gain of 0.06 and 0.16 years in graft survival in the r-ATG induction group, and a total incremental cost of US$ -321.68 and US$ -2,440.62, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The single 3 mg/kg dose of r-ATG is cost-effective in preventing acute rejection episodes and dominant in the long term of transplantation, conferring survival gain.

Cost-effectiveness of caplacizumab in immune thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura in the United States

BACKGROUND

Immune thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP) is a rare, life-threatening thrombotic microangiopathy. Caplacizumab is the only treatment approved by the European Medicines Agency and the US Food and Drug Administration for iTTP, to be given in combination with plasma exchange therapy (PEX) and immunosuppression (IS). The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's independent appraisal committee assessed the cost-effectiveness of caplacizumab and concluded that the addition of caplacizumab to PEX+IS is cost-effective under a patient access scheme in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-effectiveness of caplacizumab in iTTP from the US payer perspective.

METHODS

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's model was adapted to the US setting using US costs and discount rates. In contrast to previous cost-effectiveness analyses that accounted only for acute outcomes, our model consisted of a 3-month decision tree for an acute iTTP episode, followed by a Markov model to project long-term costs and outcomes (time horizon: up to 55 years; 3-monthly cycles).

RESULTS

Patients taking caplacizumab with PEX+IS experienced an incremental gain of 2.96 life years (LYs) and 1.75 quality-adjusted LYs relative to PEX+IS alone, at an increased lifetime cost of $256,000. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $86,400 per LY and $146,300 per quality-adjusted LY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering willingness-to-pay thresholds of $150,000 to $200,000, the addition of caplacizumab to PEX+IS may be cost-effective compared with PEX+IS alone for the treatment of iTTP in a US setting.

Efficient use of mepolizumab in children: An analysis of the economically justifiable price in Colombia

INTRODUCTION

Asthma imposes a crucial economic burden on health systems, especially with the incorporation of new drugs. Recently, mepolizumab has been approved to prevent exacerbations in patients with eosinophilic asthma. This study explores the economically justifiable price of mepolizumab for preventing exacerbations in children with severe asthma.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A model was developed using the microsimulation to estimate the quality-adjusted costs and life years of two interventions: mepolizumab versus not applying standard treatment without mepolizumab. This analysis was made during a time horizon of 50 years and from a third-payer perspective.

RESULTS

Mepolizumab was cost-effective using a WTP of U$ 19,992 per QALY, but not at a WTP of U$ 4828, U$ 5128 per QALY. The economically justifiable cost for mepolizumab in Colombia is between $33 and $350 per dose, for WTP of U$ 4828, and U$ 5128 respectively. At the current price of Mepolizumab, U$ 780 per dose, only using a WTP higher than U$ 10,300 per QALY mepolizumab will be the best alternative to no mepolizumab.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that the economically justifiable cost for mepolizumab in Colombia is between $33 and $350 per dose, for WTP of 4828 and 5180 respectively. This result should encourage more studies in the region that optimize decision-making processes when incorporating this drug into the health plans of each country.

Different Models, Same Results: Considerations When Choosing Between Approaches to Model Cost Effectiveness of Chimeric-Antigen Receptor T-Cell Therapy Versus Standard of Care

OBJECTIVE

Chimeric antigen-receptor T-cell therapy (CAR-T) is characterised by early phase data at the time of registration, high upfront cost and a complex manufacturing and administration process compared with standard therapies. Our objective was to compare the performance of different models to assess the cost effectiveness of CAR-T using a state-transition model (STM), partitioned survival model (PSM) and discrete event simulation (DES).

METHODS

Individual data for tisagenlecleucel for the treatment of young patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) were used to populate the models. Costs and benefits were measured over a lifetime to generate a cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Model performance was compared quantitatively on the outcomes generated and a checklist developed summarising the components captured by each model type relevant to assessing cost effectiveness of CAR-T.

RESULTS

Models generated similar results with base-case analyses ranging from an incremental cost per QALY of $96,074-$99,625. DES was the only model to specifically capture CAR-T wait time, demonstrating a substantial loss of benefit of CAR-T with increased wait time.

CONCLUSION

Although model type did not meaningfully impact base-case results, the ability to incorporate an outcome-based payment arrangement (OBA) and wait time are important elements to consider when selecting a model for CAR-T. DES provided greater flexibility compared with STM and PSM approaches to deal with the complex manufacturing and administration process that can lead to extended wait times and substantially reduce the benefit of CAR-T. This is an important consideration when selecting a model type for CAR-T, so major drivers of uncertainty are considered in funding decisions.

Next-generation sequencing in oncology: challenges in economic evaluations

INTRODUCTION

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) identifies genetic variants to inform personalized treatment plans. Insufficient evidence of cost-effectiveness impedes the integration of NGS into routine cancer care. The complexity of personalized treatment challenges conventional economic evaluation. Clearly delineating challenges informs future cost-effectiveness analyses to better value and contextualize health, preference-, and equity-based outcomes.

AREAS COVERED

We conducted a scoping review to characterize the applied methods and outcomes of economic evaluations of NGS in oncology and identify existing challenges. We included 27 articles published since 2016 from a search of PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. Identified challenges included defining the evaluative scope, managing evidentiary limitations including lack of causal evidence, incorporating preference-based utility, and assessing distributional and equity-based impacts. These challenges reflect the difficulty of generating high-quality clinical effectiveness and real-world evidence (RWE) for NGS-guided interventions.

EXPERT OPINION

Adapting methodological approaches and developing life-cycle health technology assessment (HTA) guidance using RWE is crucial for implementing NGS in oncology. Healthcare systems, decision-makers, and HTA organizations are facing a pivotal opportunity to adapt to an evolving clinical paradigm and create innovative regulatory and reimbursement processes that will enable more sustainable, equitable, and patient-oriented healthcare.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of mHealth applications for depression in Germany using a Markov cohort simulation

Regulated mobile health applications are called digital health applications ("DiGA") in Germany. To qualify for reimbursement by statutory health insurance companies, DiGA have to prove positive care effects in scientific studies. Since the empirical exploration of DiGA cost-effectiveness remains largely uncharted, this study pioneers the methodology of cohort-based state-transition Markov models to evaluate DiGA for depression. As health states, we define mild, moderate, severe depression, remission and death. Comparing a future scenario where 50% of patients receive supplementary DiGA access with the current standard of care reveals a gain of 0.02 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per patient, which comes at additional direct costs of ~1536 EUR per patient over a five-year timeframe. Influencing factors determining DiGA cost-effectiveness are the DiGA cost structure and individual DiGA effectiveness. Under Germany's existing cost structure, DiGA for depression are yet to demonstrate the ability to generate overall savings in healthcare expenditures.

Data-driven Huntington's disease progression modelling and estimation of societal cost in the UK

We develop a Huntington's disease (HD) progression model and integrate this with a novel economic model, accounting for the major factors of the HD's societal cost. Data from the Enroll-HD observational study were used to fit a continuous-time hidden Markov disease progression model, which identified five distinct states. The number of disease states was determined using a cross-validated maximum likelihood approach. A novel data augmentation method was used to correct the biased life expectancy of the progression model. Multiple sources of cost data were then mapped to Enroll-HD variables using expert experience. A simulation of a synthetic patient population was used to show the feasibility of the approach in estimating population costs and the impact of hypothetical intervention scenarios. Our results confirm that early cognitive decline, which is not captured by the total functional capacity score currently used by clinicians but flagged up in HD integrated staging system, can be quantified from participants' visits. Finally, the results of the UK cost modelling show that indirect costs of HD such as state benefits and lost gross domestic product contribution could be the driving factors for the societal cost, over and above health and social care costs.

Cost Analysis of Pure Hypochlorous Acid Preserved Wound Cleanser versus Mafenide for the Irrigation of Burn Wounds

Over 40,000 patients in the United States (US) require hospitalization for burns annually. The treatment regimen can cost more than $6,000 a day and requires the use of numerous supplies to ensure the graft takes for successful wound healing. Irrigation of the wound is a critical step for burn treatment, yet little is known about the cost-effectiveness of different irrigation modalities. In a recent study, pure hypochlorous acid preserved wound cleanser (pHA) was shown to be safe and effective compared to mafenide. This study estimated the associated costs of two common wound irrigation modalities, pHA and mafenide solution, for the treatment of patients with burns. In this study, a patient-level Monte Carlo simulation model using data from a randomized control trial (RCT) was used to conduct the cost analysis from the US Hospital perspective. Based upon 100,000 simulated patients, pHA was expected to save $133 ($123 to $144, 10th to 90th percentile) for the hospital compared to using a mafenide solution over 14 days. Adoption of pHA should be considered a cost-saving strategy when treating patients with burns.

Long-Term Outcomes of Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen-PET Imaging of Recurrent Prostate Cancer

Importance

Although prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography (PSMA-PET) has shown improved sensitivity and specificity compared with conventional imaging for the detection of biochemical recurrent (BCR) prostate cancer, the long-term outcomes of a widespread shift in imaging are unknown.

Objective

To estimate long-term outcomes of integrating PSMA-PET into the staging pathway for recurrent prostate cancer.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This decision analytic modeling study simulated outcomes for patients with BCR following initial definitive local therapy. Inputs used were from the literature and a retrospective cohort study conducted at 2 institutions. The base case analysis assumed modest benefits of earlier detection and treatment, and scenario analyses considered prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at imaging and different outcomes of earlier vs delayed treatment. The analysis was performed between April 1, 2023, and May 1, 2024.

Exposures

(1) Immediate PSMA-PET imaging, (2) conventional imaging (computed tomography and bone scan [CTBS]) followed by PSMA-PET if CTBS findings were negative or equivocal, and (3) CTBS alone.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were detection of metastases, deaths from prostate cancer, and life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained.

Results

The model estimated that per 1000 simulated patients with BCR (assumed median age, 66 years), PSMA-PET is expected to diagnose 611 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 565-656) patients with metastasis compared with 630 (95% UI, 586-675) patients diagnosed using CTBS followed by PSMA-PET and 297 (95% UI, 202-410) patients diagnosed using CTBS alone. Moreover, the estimated number of prostate cancer deaths was 512 (95% UI, 472-552 deaths) with PSMA-PET, 520 (95% UI, 480-559 deaths) with CTBS followed by PSMA-PET, and 587 (95% UI, 538-632 deaths) with CTBS alone. Imaging with PSMA-PET yielded the highest number of QALYs, which were 824 (95% UI, 698-885) higher than CTBS. These results differed by PSA level at the time of testing, with the highest incremental life-years and QALYs and lowest number of deaths from prostate cancer among patients with PSA levels of at least 5.0 ng/mL. Finally, the estimates were sensitive to the expected benefit of initiating therapy for recurrent prostate cancer earlier in the disease course.

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this decision-analytic model suggest that upfront PSMA-PET imaging for the evaluation of BCR is expected to be associated with reduced cancer mortality and gains in life-years and QALYs compared with the conventional imaging strategy, assuming modest benefits of earlier detection and treatment.

The conceptualisation of cardiometabolic disease policy model in the UK

BACKGROUND

Decision models are increasingly used to inform policy-making processes, and there is a need to improve their credibility. The estimation of health and economic outcomes generated from decision models is influenced by the development process itself. This paper aims to present the conceptual model development process of cardiometabolic disease (CMD) policy models in the UK setting.

METHODS

This conceptual model followed the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research-Society of Medical Decision Making (ISPOR-SMDM) Modelling Good Research Practices Task Force-2.

RESULTS

First, for the conceptualisation of the problem, the CMD disease staging, progression and current clinical guidelines were summarised, followed by a systematic review of published policy models. We critically appraised policy models such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Key messages from the review emphasised the importance of understanding various determinants influencing model development, including risk factors, model structure, models' parameters, data utilisation, economic perspective, equality/equity consideration, transparency and validation process. Second, as a sequential process, is model conceptualisation, to determine which modelling types and their attributes best represent the defined problem. Expert opinions, including a clinician and experienced modellers, provided input on the state transition model to ensure the structure is clinically relevant. From this stage, the consideration and agreement to establish a disease state in a state transition model was discussed.

CONCLUSION

This conceptual model serves as a basis for representing the systematic process for structuring a CMD policy model to enhance its transparency and credibility.

Pain medication tapering for patients with Persistent Spinal Pain Syndrome Type II, treated with Spinal Cord Stimulation: A RCT-study protocol of the PIANISSIMO study

BACKGROUND

Spinal Cord Stimulation (SCS) may provide pain relief in patients with therapy-refractory Persistent Spinal Pain Syndrome Type II (PSPS-T2). Despite the evidence that SCS can reduce disability and reduce pain medication usage, only 25% of the patients is able to completely omit pain medication usage after 12 months of SCS. To tackle the high burden of patients who consume a lot of pain medication, tapering programs could be initiated before starting a trajectory with SCS. The current objective is to examine whether a pain medication tapering program before SCS alters disability in PSPS-T2 patients compared to no tapering program.

METHODS AND DESIGN

A three-arm, parallel-group multicenter randomized controlled trial will be conducted including 195 patients who will be randomized (1:1:1) to either (a) a standardized pain medication tapering program, (b) a personalized pain medication tapering program, or (c) no tapering program before SCS implantation, all with a follow-up period until 12 months after implantation. The primary outcome is disability. The secondary outcomes are pain intensity, health-related quality of life, participation, domains affected by substance use, anxiety and depression, medication usage, psychological constructs, sleep, symptoms of central sensitization, and healthcare expenditure.

DISCUSSION

Within the PIANISSIMO project we propose a way to reduce the risks of adverse events, medication-induced hyperalgesia, tolerance, and dependence by providing pain medication tapering before SCS. Due to the lack of a commonly accepted in-hospital tapering approach, two different tapering programs will be evaluated in this study. If pain medication tapering programs are deemed to be more effective than no tapering on disability, this would add to the evidence towards an improved patient-centered care model in this patient group and set a clear path to advocate for pain medication tapering before SCS as the new standard treatment guideline for these patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05861609. Registered on May 17, 2023.

Cost-effectiveness of applying high-sensitivity troponin I to a score for cardiovascular risk prediction in asymptomatic population

INTRODUCTION

Risk stratification scores such as the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) are used to guide individuals on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. Adding high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) to such risk scores has the potential to improve accuracy of CVD prediction. We investigated how applying hsTnI in addition to SCORE may impact management, outcome, and cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

Characteristics of 72,190 apparently healthy individuals from the Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project were included into a discrete-event simulation comparing two strategies for assessing CVD risk. The standard strategy reflecting current practice employed SCORE (SCORE); the alternative strategy involved adding hsTnI information for further stratifying SCORE risk categories (S-SCORE). Individuals were followed over ten years from baseline examination to CVD event, death or end of follow-up. The model tracked the occurrence of events and calculated direct costs of screening, prevention, and treatment from a European health system perspective. Cost-effectiveness was expressed as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in € per quality-adjusted life year (QALYs) gained during 10 years of follow-up. Outputs were validated against observed rates, and results were tested in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

S-SCORE yielded a change in management for 10.0% of individuals, and a reduction in CVD events (4.85% vs. 5.38%, p<0.001) and mortality (6.80% vs. 7.04%, p<0.001). S-SCORE led to 23 (95%CI: 20-26) additional event-free years and 7 (95%CI: 5-9) additional QALYs per 1,000 subjects screened, and resulted in a relative risk reduction for CVD of 9.9% (95%CI: 7.3-13.5%) with a number needed to screen to prevent one event of 183 (95%CI: 172 to 203). S-SCORE increased costs per subject by 187€ (95%CI: 177 € to 196 €), leading to an ICER of 27,440€/QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis was performed with eligibility for treatment being the most sensitive.

CONCLUSION

Adding a person's hsTnI value to SCORE can impact clinical decision making and eventually improves QALYs and is cost-effective compared to CVD prevention strategies using SCORE alone. Stratifying SCORE risk classes for hsTnI would likely offer cost-effective alternatives, particularly when targeting higher risk groups.

A structured process for the validation of a decision-analytic model: application to a cost-effectiveness model for risk-stratified national breast screening

BACKGROUND

Decision-makers require knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of decision-analytic models used to evaluate healthcare interventions to be able to confidently use the results of such models to inform policy. A number of aspects of model validity have previously been described, but no systematic approach to assessing the validity of a model has been proposed. This study aimed to consolidate the different aspects of model validity into a step-by-step approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of a decision-analytic model.

METHODS

A pre-defined set of steps were used to conduct the validation process of an exemplar early decision-analytic-model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of a risk-stratified national breast cancer screening programme [UK healthcare perspective; lifetime horizon; costs (£; 2021)]. Internal validation was assessed in terms of descriptive validity, technical validity and face validity. External validation was assessed in terms of operational validation, convergent validity (or corroboration) and predictive validity.

RESULTS

The results outline the findings of each step of internal and external validation of the early decision-analytic-model and present the validated model (called 'MANC-RISK-SCREEN'). The positive aspects in terms of meeting internal validation requirements are shown together with the remaining limitations of MANC-RISK-SCREEN.

CONCLUSION

Following a transparent and structured validation process, MANC-RISK-SCREEN has been shown to have satisfactory internal and external validity for use in informing resource allocation decision-making. We suggest that MANC-RISK-SCREEN can be used to assess the cost-effectiveness of exemplars of risk-stratified national breast cancer screening programmes (NBSP) from the UK perspective.

IMPLICATIONS

A step-by-step process for conducting the validation of a decision-analytic model was developed for future use by health economists. Using this approach may help researchers to fully demonstrate the strengths and limitations of their model to decision-makers.

Simulation-based economic evaluation of the Wolbachia method in Brazil: a cost-effective strategy for dengue control

Background

Dengue virus (DENV) is an arbovirus transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which can cause severe conditions such as hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. These conditions are associated with adverse social, clinical, and economic consequences in Brazil. Herein, the Wolbachia mosquito replacement method is a promising dengue control strategy.

Methods

We estimated the economic impact of implementing the Wolbachia mosquito replacement method in seven Brazilian cities. A mathematical microsimulation model tracked nearly 23 million inhabitants over a 20-year period, considering the transitions between five different health states (susceptible, inapparent, outpatient, hospitalised and death). Direct costs included local dengue control programs, Wolbachia implementation and dengue care. Indirect costs related to death and productivity loss, as well as disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) averted were also considered.

Findings

Without Wolbachia, the model projected 1,762,688 reported dengue cases over 20 years. Implementing the Wolbachia method would avert at least 1,295,566 dengue cases, resulting in lower costs and greater effectiveness in all simulated cities. On average, for every 1000 inhabitants followed for 20 years, the Wolbachia method yielded a cost difference of USD 538,233.68 (BRL 2,691,168.40) and averted 5.56 DALYs. Net monetary benefits (NMB) were positive in all seven cities, ranging from USD 110.72 (BRL 553.59) to USD 1399.19 (BRL 6995.95) per inhabitant. Alternative scenarios have also shown a favourable return on investment with a positive benefit-cost ratio (BCR).

Interpretation

Wolbachia is likely a cost-effective strategy in the Brazilian context, consistent with international studies. Sensitivity analysis and alternative scenarios confirmed the robustness of the results.

Funding

This study was funded by the Wellcome Trust under a grant (224459/Z/21/Z).

Quantifying the cost savings and health impacts of improving colonoscopy quality: an economic evaluation

OBJECTIVE

To estimate and quantify the cost implications and health impacts of improving the performance of English endoscopy services to the optimum quality as defined by postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (PCCRC) rates.

DESIGN

A semi-Markov state-transition model was constructed, following the logical treatment pathway of individuals who could potentially undergo a diagnostic colonoscopy. The model consisted of three identical arms, each representing a high, middle or low-performing trust's endoscopy service, defined by PCCRC rates. A cohort of 40-year-old individuals was simulated in each arm of the model. The model's time horizon was when the cohort reached 90 years of age and the total costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated for all trusts. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were also conducted.

RESULTS

A 40-year-old individual gains 0.0006 QALYs and savings of £6.75 over the model lifetime by attending a high-performing trust compared with attending a middle-performing trust and gains 0.0012 QALYs and savings of £14.64 compared with attending a low-performing trust. For the population of England aged between 40 and 86, if all low and middle-performing trusts were improved to the level of a high-performing trust, QALY gains of 14 044 and cost savings of £249 311 295 are possible. Higher quality trusts dominated lower quality trusts; any improvement in the PCCRC rate was cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

Improving the quality of endoscopy services would lead to QALY gains among the population, in addition to cost savings to the healthcare provider. If all middle and low-performing trusts were improved to the level of a high-performing trust, our results estimate that the English National Health Service would save approximately £5 million per year.

Cost-effectiveness of endovascular treatment after 6-24 h in ischaemic stroke patients with collateral flow on CT-angiography: A model-based economic evaluation of the MR CLEAN-LATE trial

BACKGROUND

The MR CLEAN-LATE trial has shown that patient selection for endovascular treatment (EVT) in the late window (6-24 h after onset or last-seen-well) based on the presence of collateral flow on CT-angiography is safe and effective. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of late-window collateral-based EVT-selection compared to best medical management (BMM) over a lifetime horizon (until 95 years of age).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A model-based economic evaluation was performed from a societal perspective in The Netherlands. A decision tree was combined with a state-transition (Markov) model. Health states were defined by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). Initial probabilities at 3-months post-stroke were based on MR CLEAN-LATE data. Transition probabilities were derived from previous literature. Information on short- and long-term resource use and utilities was obtained from a study using MR CLEAN-LATE and cross-sectional data. All costs are expressed in 2022 euros. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at a rate of 4% and 1.5%, respectively. The effect of parameter uncertainty was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA).

RESULTS

On average, the EVT strategy cost €159,592 (95% CI: €140,830-€180,154) and generated 3.46 QALYs (95% CI: 3.04-3.90) per patient, whereas the costs and QALYs associated with BMM were €149,935 (95% CI: €130,841-€171,776) and 2.88 (95% CI: 2.48-3.29), respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per QALY and the incremental net monetary benefit were €16,442 and €19,710, respectively. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of €50,000/QALY, EVT was cost-effective in 87% of replications.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Collateral-based selection for late-window EVT is likely cost-effective from a societal perspective in The Netherlands.

High-precision stereotactic irradiation for focal drug-resistant epilepsy versus standard treatment: a randomized waitlist-controlled trial (the PRECISION trial)

INTRODUCTION

The standard treatment for patients with focal drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) who are not eligible for open brain surgery is the continuation of anti-seizure medication (ASM) and neuromodulation. This treatment does not cure epilepsy but only decreases severity. The PRECISION trial offers a non-invasive, possibly curative intervention for these patients, which consist of a single stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) treatment. Previous studies have shown promising results of SRT in this patient population. Nevertheless, this intervention is not yet available and reimbursed in the Netherlands. We hypothesize that: SRT is a superior treatment option compared to palliative standard of care, for patients with focal DRE, not eligible for open surgery, resulting in a higher reduction of seizure frequency (with 50% of the patients reaching a 75% seizure frequency reduction at 2 years follow-up).

METHODS

In this waitlist-controlled phase 3 clinical trial, participants are randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to either receive SRT as the intervention, while the standard treatments consist of ASM continuation and neuromodulation. After 2-year follow-up, patients randomized for the standard treatment (waitlist-control group) are offered SRT. Patients aged ≥ 18 years with focal DRE and a pretreatment defined epileptogenic zone (EZ) not eligible for open surgery will be included. The intervention is a LINAC-based single fraction (24 Gy) SRT treatment. The target volume is defined as the epileptogenic zone (EZ) on all (non) invasive examinations. The seizure frequency will be monitored on a daily basis using an electronic diary and an automatic seizure detection system during the night. Potential side effects are evaluated using advanced MRI, cognitive evaluation, Common Toxicity Criteria, and patient-reported outcome questionnaires. In addition, the cost-effectiveness of the SRT treatment will be evaluated.

DISCUSSION

This is the first randomized trial comparing SRT with standard of care in patients with DRE, non-eligible for open surgery. The primary objective is to determine whether SRT significantly reduces the seizure frequency 2 years after treatment. The results of this trial can influence the current clinical practice and medical cost reimbursement in the Netherlands for patients with focal DRE who are not eligible for open surgery, providing a non-invasive curative treatment option.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT05182437. Registered on September 27, 2021.

Improving resource allocation in the precision medicine Era: a simulation-based approach using R

The application of personalized medicine in developing countries is a major challenge, especially for those with poor economic status. A critical factor in improving the application of personalized medicine is the efficient allocation of resources. In healthcare systems, optimizing resource allocation without compromising patient care is paramount. This tutorial employs a simulation-based approach to evaluate the efficiency of bed allocation within a hospital setting. Utilizing a patient arrival model with an exponential distribution, we simulated patient trajectories to examine system bottlenecks, particularly focusing on waiting times. Initial simulations painted a scenario of an 'unstable' system, where waiting times and queue lengths surged due to the limited number of available beds. This research offers insights for hospital management on resource optimization leading to improved patient care.

Exploring the cost-effectiveness of EBV vaccination to prevent multiple sclerosis in an Australian setting

BACKGROUND

Increasing evidence suggests the potential of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) vaccination in preventing multiple sclerosis (MS). We aimed to explore the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical EBV vaccination to prevent MS in an Australian setting.

METHODS

A five-state Markov model was developed to simulate the incidence and subsequent progression of MS in a general Australian population. The model inputs were derived from published Australian sources. Hypothetical vaccination costs, efficacy and strategies were derived from literature. Total lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated for two hypothetical prevention strategies versus no prevention from the societal and health system payer perspectives. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 5% annually. One-way, two-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

From societal perspective, EBV vaccination targeted at aged 0 and aged 12 both dominated no prevention (ie, cost saving and increasing QALYs). However, vaccinating at age 12 was more cost-effective (total lifetime costs reduced by $A452/person, QALYs gained=0.007, ICER=-$A64 571/QALY gained) than vaccinating at age 0 (total lifetime costs reduced by $A40/person, QALYs gained=0.003, ICER=-$A13 333/QALY gained). The probabilities of being cost-effective under $A50 000/QALY gained threshold for vaccinating at ages 0 and 12 were 66% and 90%, respectively. From health system payer perspective, the EBV vaccination was cost-effective at age 12 only. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of EBV vaccination to prevent MS under a wide range of plausible scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

MS prevention using future EBV vaccinations, particularly targeted at adolescence population, is highly likely to be cost-effective.

Early prediction of the impact of public health policies on obesity and lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes: A modelling approach

OBJECTIVE

Help public health decision-making requires a better understanding of the dynamics of obesity and type 2 diabetes and an assessement of different strategies to decrease their burdens.

METHODS

Based on 97,848 individual data, collected in the French Health, Health Care and Insurance Survey over 1998-2014, a Markov model was developed to describe the progression of being overweight to obesity, and the onset of type 2 diabetes. This model traces and predicts 2022-2027 burdens of obesity and type 2 diabetes, and lifetime risk of diabetes, according to different scenarios aiming at minimum to stabilize obesity at 5 years.

RESULTS

Estimated risks of type 2 diabetes increase from 0.09% (normal weight) to 1.56% (obesity II-III). Compared to the before 1995 period, progression risks are estimated to have nearly doubled for obesity and tripled for type 2 diabetes. Consequently, over 2022-2027, the prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes will continue to increase from 17.3% to 18.2% and from 7.3% to 8.1%, respectively. Scenarios statibilizing obesity would require a 22%-decrease in the probability of move up (scenario 1) or a 33%-increase in the probability of move down (scenario 2) one BMI class. However, this stabilization will not affect the increase of diabetes prevalence whereas lifetime risk of diabetes would decrease (30.9% to 27.0%). Combining both scenarios would decrease obesity by 9.9%. Only the prevalence of obesity III shows early change able to predict the outcome of a strategy: for example, 6.7%-decrease at one year, 13.3%-decrease at two years with scenario 1 stabilizing obesity at 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalences of obesity and type 2 diabetes will still increase over the next 5 years. Stabilizing obesity may decrease lifetime risks of type 2 diabetes without affecting its short-term prevalence. Our study highlights that, to early assess the effectiveness of their program, public health policy makers should rely on the change in prevalence of obesity III.

Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside the inter-B-NHL ritux 2010 trial: rituximab in children and adolescents with B cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma

OBJECTIVES

The randomized controlled trial Inter-B-NHL ritux 2010 showed overall survival (OS) benefit and event-free survival (EFS) benefit with the addition of rituximab to standard Lymphomes Malins B (LMB) chemotherapy in children and adolescents with high-risk, mature B cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Our aim was to assess the cost-effectiveness of rituximab-chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone in the French setting.

METHODS

We used a decision-analytic semi-Markov model with four health states and 1-month cycles. Resource use was prospectively collected in the Inter-B-NHL ritux 2010 trial (NCT01516580). Transition probabilities were assessed from patient-level data from the trial (n = 328). In the base case analysis, direct medical costs from the French National Insurance Scheme and life-years (LYs) were computed in both arms over a 3-year time horizon. Incremental net monetary benefit and cost-effectiveness acceptability curve were computed through a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Deterministic sensitivity analysis and several sensitivity analyses on key assumptions were also conducted, including one exploratory analysis with quality-adjusted life years as the health outcome.

RESULTS

OS and EFS benefits shown in the Inter-B-NHL ritux 2010 trial translated into the model by rituximab-chemotherapy being the most effective and also the least expensive strategy over the chemotherapy strategy. The mean difference in LYs between arms was 0.13 [95% CI 0.02; 0.25], and the mean cost difference € - 3 710 [95% CI € - 17,877; € 10,525] in favor of rituximab-chemotherapy group. For a € 50,000 per LY willingness-to-pay threshold, the probability of the rituximab-chemotherapy strategy being cost-effective was 91.1%. All sensitivity analyses confirmed these findings.

CONCLUSION

Adding rituximab to LMB chemotherapy in children and adolescents with high-risk mature B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma is highly cost-effective in France.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01516580.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of emicizumab prophylaxis in patients with haemophilia A in India

INTRODUCTION

Emicizumab is the initial subcutaneously administered bispecific antibody approved as a prophylactic treatment for patients with haemophilia A (PwHA).

AIM

This study assessed the economic evaluation of emicizumab treatment for non-inhibitor severe haemophilia A (HA) patients in India.

METHODS

A Markov model evaluated the cost-effectiveness of emicizumab prophylaxis compared to on-demand therapy (ODT), low-dose prophylaxis (LDP; 1565 IU/kg/year), intermediate-dose prophylaxis (IDP; 3915 IU/kg/year) and high-dose prophylaxis (HDP; 7125 IU/kg/year) for HA patients without factor VIII inhibitors. Inputs from HAVEN-1 and HAVEN-3 trials included transition probabilities of different bleeding types. Costs and benefits were discounted at a 3.5% annual rate.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, emicizumab was cost-effective compared to HDP, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) of Indian rupees (INR) 27,869. Compared to IDP, ODT and LDP, emicizumab prophylaxis could be considered a cost-effective option if the paying threshold is >1 per capita gross domestic product (GDP) with ICER/QALY values of INR 264,592, INR 255,876 and INR 305,398, respectively. One-way sensitivity analysis (OWSA) highlighted emicizumab cost as the parameter with the greatest impact on ICERs. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) indicated that emicizumab had a 94.7% and 49.4% probability of being cost-effective at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of three and two-times per capita GDP.

CONCLUSION

Emicizumab prophylaxis is cost-effective compared to HDP and provides value for money compared to ODT, IDP, and LDP for severe non-inhibitor PwHA in India. Its long-term humanistic, clinical and economic benefits outweigh alternative options, making it a valuable choice in resource-constrained settings.

Identifying the Optimum Strategy for Identifying Adults and Children With Celiac Disease: A Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Celiac disease (CD) is thought to affect around 1% of people in the United Kingdom, but only approximately 30% are diagnosed. The aim of this work was to assess the cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying adults and children with CD in terms of who to test and which tests to use.

METHODS

A decision tree and Markov model were used to describe testing strategies and model long-term consequences of CD. The analysis compared a selection of pre-test probabilities of CD above which patients should be screened, as well as the use of different serological tests, with or without genetic testing. Value of information analysis was used to prioritize parameters for future research.

RESULTS

Using serological testing alone in adults, immunoglobulin A (IgA) tissue transglutaminase (tTG) at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening) was most cost-effective. If combining serological testing with genetic testing, human leukocyte antigen combined with IgA tTG at a 5% pre-test probability was most cost-effective. In children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leukocyte antigen plus IgA tTG. Value of information analysis highlighted the probability of late diagnosis of CD and the accuracy of serological tests as important parameters. The analysis also suggested prioritizing research in adult women over adult men or children.

CONCLUSIONS

For adults, these cost-effectiveness results suggest UK National Screening Committee Criteria for population-based screening for CD should be explored. Substantial uncertainty in the results indicate a high value in conducting further research.

The use of social simulation modelling to understand adherence to diabetic retinopathy screening programs

The success of screening programs depends to a large extent on the adherence of the target population, so it is therefore of fundamental importance to develop computer simulation models that make it possible to understand the factors that correlate with this adherence, as well as to identify population groups with low adherence to define public health strategies that promote behavioral change. Our aim is to demonstrate that it is possible to simulate screening adherence behavior using computer simulations. Three versions of an agent-based model are presented using different methods to determine the agent's individual decision to adhere to screening: (a) logistic regression; (b) fuzzy logic components and (c) a combination of the previous. All versions were based on real data from 271,867 calls for diabetic retinopathy screening. The results obtained are statistically very close to the real ones, which allows us to conclude that despite having a high degree of abstraction from the real data, the simulations are very valid and useful as a tool to support decisions in health planning, while evaluating multiple scenarios and accounting for emergent behavior.

Improving shared decision-making about cancer treatment through design-based data-driven decision-support tools and redesigning care paths: an overview of the 4D PICTURE project

Background

Patients with cancer often have to make complex decisions about treatment, with the options varying in risk profiles and effects on survival and quality of life. Moreover, inefficient care paths make it hard for patients to participate in shared decision-making. Data-driven decision-support tools have the potential to empower patients, support personalized care, improve health outcomes and promote health equity. However, decision-support tools currently seldom consider quality of life or individual preferences, and their use in clinical practice remains limited, partly because they are not well integrated in patients' care paths.

Aim and objectives

The central aim of the 4D PICTURE project is to redesign patients' care paths and develop and integrate evidence-based decision-support tools to improve decision-making processes in cancer care delivery. This article presents an overview of this international, interdisciplinary project.

Design methods and analysis

In co-creation with patients and other stakeholders, we will develop data-driven decision-support tools for patients with breast cancer, prostate cancer and melanoma. We will support treatment decisions by using large, high-quality datasets with state-of-the-art prognostic algorithms. We will further develop a conversation tool, the Metaphor Menu, using text mining combined with citizen science techniques and linguistics, incorporating large datasets of patient experiences, values and preferences. We will further develop a promising methodology, MetroMapping, to redesign care paths. We will evaluate MetroMapping and these integrated decision-support tools, and ensure their sustainability using the Nonadoption, Abandonment, Scale-Up, Spread, and Sustainability (NASSS) framework. We will explore the generalizability of MetroMapping and the decision-support tools for other types of cancer and across other EU member states.

Ethics

Through an embedded ethics approach, we will address social and ethical issues.

Discussion

Improved care paths integrating comprehensive decision-support tools have the potential to empower patients, their significant others and healthcare providers in decision-making and improve outcomes. This project will strengthen health care at the system level by improving its resilience and efficiency.

Comparison of partitioned survival modeling with state transition modeling approaches with or without consideration of brain metastasis: a case study of Osimertinib versus pemetrexed-platinum

BACKGROUND

The partitioned survival model (PSM) and the state transition model (STM) are widely used in cost-effectiveness analyses of anticancer drugs. Using different modeling approaches with or without consideration of brain metastasis, we compared the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) estimates of Osimertinib and pemetrexed-platinum in advanced non-small cell lung cancer with epidermal growth factor receptor mutations.

METHODS

We constructed three economic models using parametric curves fitted to patient-level data from the National Health Insurance Review and Assessment claims database from 2009 to 2020. PSM and 3-health state transition model (3-STM) consist of three health states: progression-free, post-progression, and death. The 5-health state transition model (5-STM) has two additional health states (brain metastasis with continuing initial therapy, and with subsequent therapy). Time-dependent transition probabilities were calculated in the state transition models. The incremental life-year (LY) and QALY between the Osimertinib and pemetrexed-platinum cohorts for each modeling approach were estimated over seven years.

RESULTS

The PSM and 3-STM produced similar incremental LY (0.889 and 0.899, respectively) and QALY (0.827 and 0.840, respectively). However, 5-STM, which considered brain metastasis as separate health states, yielded a slightly higher incremental LY (0.910) but lower incremental QALY (0.695) than PSM and 3-STM.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that incorporating additional health states such as brain metastases into economic models can have a considerable impact on incremental QALY estimates. To ensure appropriate health technology assessment decisions, comparison and justification of different modeling approaches are recommended in the economic evaluation of anticancer drugs.

Microsimulation Models on Mental Health: A Critical Review of the Literature

OBJECTIVES

To retrieve and synthesize the literature on existing mental health-specific microsimulation models or generic microsimulation models used to examine mental health, and to critically appraise them.

METHODS

All studies on microsimulation and mental health published in English in MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, and EconLit between January 1, 2010, and September 30, 2022, were considered. Snowballing, Google searches, and searches on specific journal websites were also undertaken. Data extraction was done on all studies retrieved and the reporting quality of each model was assessed using the Quality Assessment Reporting for Microsimulation Models checklist, a checklist developed by the research team. A narrative synthesis approach was used to synthesize the evidence.

RESULTS

Among 227 potential hits, 19 studies were found to be relevant. Some studies covered existing economic-demographic models, which included a component on mental health and were used to answer mental-health-related research questions. Other studies were focused solely on mental health and included models that were developed to examine the impact of specific policies or interventions on specific mental disorders or both. Most models examined were of medium quality. The main limitations included the use of model inputs based on self-reported and/or cross-sectional data, small and/or nonrepresentative samples and simplifying assumptions, and lack of model validation.

CONCLUSIONS

This review found few high-quality microsimulation models on mental health. Microsimulation models developed specifically to examine mental health are important to guide healthcare delivery and service planning. Future research should focus on developing high-quality mental health-specific microsimulation models with wide applicability and multiple functionalities.

Long-term benefits and harms of early colorectal cancer screening in German individuals with familial cancer risk

Individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) may benefit from early screening with colonoscopy or immunologic fecal occult blood testing (iFOBT). We systematically evaluated the benefit-harm trade-offs of various screening strategies differing by screening test (colonoscopy or iFOBT), interval (iFOBT: annual/biennial; colonoscopy: 10-yearly) and age at start (30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 years) and end of screening (65, 70 and 75 years) offered to individuals identified with familial CRC risk in Germany. A Markov-state-transition model was developed and used to estimate health benefits (CRC-related deaths avoided, life-years gained [LYG]), potential harms (eg, associated with additional colonoscopies) and incremental harm-benefit ratios (IHBR) for each strategy. Both benefits and harms increased with earlier start and shorter intervals of screening. When screening started before age 50, 32-36 CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons were avoided with colonoscopy and 29-34 with iFOBT screening, compared to 29-31 (colonoscopy) and 28-30 (iFOBT) CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons when starting age 50 or older, respectively. For iFOBT screening, the IHBRs expressed as additional colonoscopies per LYG were one (biennial, age 45-65 vs no screening), four (biennial, age 35-65), six (biennial, age 30-70) and 34 (annual, age 30-54; biennial, age 55-75). Corresponding IHBRs for 10-yearly colonoscopy were four (age 55-65), 10 (age 45-65), 15 (age 35-65) and 29 (age 30-70). Offering screening with colonoscopy or iFOBT to individuals with familial CRC risk before age 50 is expected to be beneficial. Depending on the accepted IHBR threshold, 10-yearly colonoscopy or alternatively biennial iFOBT from age 30 to 70 should be recommended for this target group.

The value-based price of transformative gene therapy for sickle cell disease: a modeling analysis

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an inherited, progressively debilitating blood disorder. Emerging gene therapies (GTx) may lead to a complete remission, the benefits of such can only be realized if GTx is affordable and accessible in the low-and middle-income countries (LMIC) with the greatest SCD burden. To estimate the health impacts and country-specific value-based prices (VBP) of a future gene therapy for SCD using a cost-utility model framework. We developed a lifetime Markov model to compare the costs and health outcomes of GTx versus standard of care for SCD. We modeled populations in seven LMICs and six high-income countries (HICs) estimating lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in comparison to estimates of a country's cost-effectiveness threshold. Each country's unique VBP for GTx was calculated via threshold analysis. Relative to SOC treatment alone, we found that hypothetical GTx reduced the number of people symptomatic with SCD over time leading to fewer DALYs. Across countries, VBPs ranged from $3.6 million (US) to $700 (Uganda). Our results indicate a wide range of GTx prices are required if it is to be made widely available and may inform burden and affordability for 'target product profiles' of GTx in SCD.

Treat All versus targeted strategies to select HBV-infected people for antiviral therapy in The Gambia, west Africa: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Global elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) requires expanded uptake of antiviral therapy, potentially by simplifying testing algorithms, especially in resource-limited countries. We evaluated the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of three strategies that determine eligibility for anti-HBV treatment, as compared with the WHO 2015 treatment eligibility criteria, in The Gambia.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model of natural history using data from the Prevention of Liver Fibrosis and Cancer in Africa programme (known as PROLIFICA) in The Gambia, for an HBV-infected cohort of individuals aged 20 years. The algorithms included in the model were a conventional strategy using the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) 2017 criteria, a simplified algorithm using hepatitis B e antigen and alanine aminotransferase (the Treatment Eligibility in Africa for the Hepatitis B Virus [TREAT-B] score), a Treat All approach for all HBV-infected individuals, and the WHO 2015 criteria. Outcomes to measure effectiveness were disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life saved (YLS), which were used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with the WHO 2015 criteria as the base-case scenario. Costs were assessed from a modified social perspective. A budget impact analysis was also done. We tested the robustness of results with a range of sensitiviy analyses including probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

FINDINGS

Compared with the WHO criteria, TREAT-B resulted in 4877 DALYs averted and Treat All resulted in 9352 DALYs averted, whereas the EASL criteria led to an excess of 795 DALYs. TREAT-B was cost-saving, whereas the ICER for Treat All (US$2149 per DALY averted) was higher than the cost-effectiveness threshold for The Gambia (0·5 times the country's gross domestic product per capita: $352). These patterns did not change when YLS was the outcome. In a modelled cohort of 5000 adults (aged 20 years) with chronic HBV infection from The Gambia, the 5-year budget impact was $1·14 million for Treat All, $0·66 million for TREAT-B, $1·03 million for the WHO criteria, and $1·16 million for the EASL criteria. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that among the Treat All, EASL, and TREAT-B algorithms, Treat All would become the most preferred strategy only with a willingness-to-pay threshold exceeding approximately $72 000 per DALY averted or $110 000 per YLS.

INTERPRETATION

Although the Treat All strategy might be the most effective, it is unlikely to be cost-effective in The Gambia. A simplified strategy such as TREAT-B might be a cost-saving alternative.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council).

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Early Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy for Gastric Cancer Patients with Limited Peritoneal Carcinomatosis

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) have a poor prognosis, with a median overall survival of 10 months when treated with systemic chemotherapy only. Cohort studies showed that cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) might improve the prognosis for gastric cancer patients with limited PC. Besides generating trial data on clinical effectiveness, it is crucial to timely collect information on economic aspects to guide the reimbursement decision-making process. No previous data have been published on the cost(-effectiveness) of CRS/HIPEC in this group of patients. Therefore, we performed an early model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of CRS/HIPEC for gastric cancer patients with limited PC in the Dutch setting.

METHODS

We constructed a two-state (alive-dead) Markov transition model to evaluate costs and clinical outcomes from a Dutch healthcare perspective. Clinical outcomes, transition probabilities and utilities were derived from literature and verified by clinical experts in the field. Costs were measured using two available representative cohorts (2010-2017): one 'systemic chemotherapy only' cohort and one 'CRS/HIPEC' cohort (n = 10 each). Incremental cost-utility ratios (ICURs) were expressed as Euros per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). We performed probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity, scenario, and value-of-information analyses using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of €80,000/QALY, which reflects the Dutch norm for severe diseases.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, CRS/HIPEC yielded more QALYs (increment of 0.68) and more costs (increment of €34,706) compared with systemic chemotherapy only, resulting in an ICUR of €50,990/QALY. The probability that CRS/HIPEC was cost effective compared with systemic chemotherapy alone was 64%. To reduce uncertainty, the expected value of perfect information amounted to €4,021,468. The scenario analyses did not alter the results and showed that treatment costs, lifetime health-related quality of life and overall survival had the largest influence on the model.

CONCLUSIONS

The presented early cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that adding CRS/HIPEC to systemic chemotherapy for gastric cancer patients with limited PC has a good chance of being cost-effectiveness compared with systemic chemotherapy alone when using a WTP of €80,000/QALY. However, there is substantial uncertainty in view of the current available data on effectiveness. Results from the ongoing phase III PERISCOPE II trial are therefore crucial for further decisions on treatment policy and its cost-effectiveness.