A novel hybrid model for air quality index forecasting based on two-phase decomposition technique and modified extreme learning machine

Elucidating and forecasting the organochlorine pesticides in suspended particulate matter by a two-stage decomposition based interpretable deep learning approach

Accurately predicting the concentration of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) presents a challenge due to their complex sources and environmental behaviors. In this study, we introduced a novel and advanced model that combined the power of three distinct techniques: Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), and a deep learning network of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The objective is to characterize the variation in OCPs concentrations with high precision. Results show that the hybrid two-stage decomposition coupled models achieved an average symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE) of 23.24 % in the empirical analysis of typical surface water. It exhibited higher predictive power than the given individual benchmark models, which yielded an average SMAPE of 40.88 %, and single decomposition coupled models with an average SMAPE of 29.80 %. The proposed CEEMDAN-VMD-LSTM model, with an average SMAPE of 13.55 %, consistently outperformed the other models, yielding an average SMAPE of 33.53 %. A comparative analysis with shallow neural network methods demonstrated the advantages of the LSTM algorithm when coupled with secondary decomposition techniques for processing time series datasets. Furthermore, the interpretable analysis derived by the SHAP approach revealed that precipitation followed by the total phosphorus had strong effects on the predicted concentration of OCPs in the given water. The data presented herein shows the effectiveness of decomposition technique-based deep learning algorithms in capturing the dynamic characteristics of pollutants in surface water.

Air quality historical correlation model based on time series

Air quality is closely linked to human health and social development, making accurate air quality prediction highly significant. The Air Quality Index (AQI) is inherently a time series. However, most previous studies have overlooked its temporal features and have not thoroughly explored the relationship between pollutant emissions and air quality. To address this issue, this study establishes a historical correlation model for air quality based on a time series model-the Gaussian Hidden Markov Model (GHMM)-using industrial exhaust emissions and historical air quality data. Firstly, a traversal method is used to select the optimal number of hidden states for the GHMM. To optimize the traditional GHMM and reduce error accumulation in the prediction process, the Multi-day Weighted Matching method and the Fixed Training Set Length method are utilized. Both direct and indirect prediction modes are then used to predict the AQI in the Zhangdian District. Experimental results indicate that the improved GHMM with the indirect mode provides higher accuracy and more stable state estimation results (MAE = 13.59, RMSE = 17.59, mean forecasted value = 117.94). Finally, the air quality historical correlation model is integrated with the air quality meteorological correlation model from a previous study, further improving prediction accuracy (MAE = 11.59, RMSE = 14.87, mean forecasted value = 120.88). This study demonstrates that the GHMM's strong ability to analyze temporal features significantly enhances the accuracy and stability of air quality predictions. The integration of the air quality historical correlation model with the air quality meteorological correlation model from a previous study leverages the strengths of each sub-model in handling different feature groups, leading to even more accurate predictions.

An intelligent interval forecasting system based on fuzzy time series and error distribution characteristics for air quality index

Due to the emergency environment pollution problems, it is imperative to understand the air quality and take effective measures for environmental governance. As a representative measure, the air quality index (AQI) is a single conceptual index value simplified by the concentrations of several routinely monitored air pollutants according to the proportion of various components in the air. With the gradual enhancement of awareness of environmental protection, air quality index forecasting is a key point of environment management. However, most of the traditional forecasting methods ignore the fuzziness of original data itself and the uncertainty of forecasting results which causes the unsatisfactory results. Thus, an innovative forecasting system combining data preprocessing technique, kernel fuzzy c-means (KFCM) clustering algorithm and fuzzy time series is successfully developed for air quality index forecasting. Concretely, the fuzzy time series that handle the fuzzy set is used for the main forecasting process. Then the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition and KFCM are respectively developed for data denoising and interval partition. Furthermore, the interval forecasting method based on error distribution is developed to measure the forecasting uncertainty. Finally, the experimental simulation and evaluation system verify the great performance of proposed forecasting system and the promising applicability in a practical environment early warning system.

Predicting dust pollution from dry bulk ports in coastal cities: A hybrid approach based on data decomposition and deep learning

Dust pollution from storage and handling of materials in dry bulk ports seriously affects air quality and public health in coastal cities. Accurate prediction of dust pollution helps identify risks early and take preventive measures. However, there remain challenges in solving non-stationary time series and selecting relevant features. Besides, existing studies rarely consider impacts of port operations on dust pollution. Therefore, a hybrid approach based on data decomposition and deep learning is proposed to predict dust pollution from dry bulk ports. Port operational data is specially integrated into input features. A secondary decomposition and recombination (SDR) strategy is presented to reduce data non-stationarity. A dual-stage attention-based sequence-to-sequence (DA-Seq2Seq) model is employed to adaptively select the most relevant features at each time step, as well as capture long-term temporal dependencies. This approach is compared with baseline models on a dataset from a dry bulk port in northern China. The results reveal the advantages of SDR strategy and integrating operational data and show that this approach has higher accuracy than baseline models. The proposed approach can mitigate adverse effects of dust pollution from dry bulk ports on urban residents and help port authorities control dust pollution.

A hybrid multi-scale fusion paradigm for AQI prediction based on the secondary decomposition

With rapid industrialization and urbanization, air pollution has become an increasingly severe problem. As a key indicator of air quality, accurate prediction of the air quality index (AQI) is essential for policymakers to establish effective early warning management mechanisms and adjust living plans. In this work, a hybrid multi-scale fusion prediction paradigm is proposed for the complex AQI time series prediction. First, an initial decomposition and integration of the original data is performed by combining the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and sample entropy (SE). Then, the subsequences, divided into high-frequency and low-frequency groups, are applied to different processing methods. Among them, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) is chosen to perform a secondary decomposition of the high-frequency sequence groups and integrated by using K-means clustering with sample entropy. Finally, multi-scale fusion training of sequence prediction results with different frequencies by using long short-term memory (LSTM) yields more accurate results with R2 of 0.9715, RMSE of 2.0327, MAE of 0.0154, and MAPE of 0.0488. Furthermore, validation of the AQI datasets acquired from four different cities demonstrates that the new paradigm is more robust and generalizable as compared to other baseline methods. Therefore, this model not only holds potential value in developing AQI prediction models but also serves as a valuable reference for future research on AQI control strategies.

Environmental resilience through artificial intelligence: innovations in monitoring and management

The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) technology has revolutionized numerous fields, with its applications spanning finance, engineering, healthcare, and more. In recent years, AI's potential in addressing environmental concerns has garnered significant attention. This review paper provides a comprehensive exploration of the impact that AI has on addressing and mitigating critical environmental concerns. In the backdrop of AI's remarkable advancement across diverse disciplines, this study is dedicated to uncovering its transformative potential in the realm of environmental monitoring. The paper initiates by tracing the evolutionary trajectory of AI technologies and delving into the underlying design principles that have catalysed its rapid progression. Subsequently, it delves deeply into the nuanced realm of AI applications in the analysis of remote sensing imagery. This includes an intricate breakdown of challenges and solutions in per-pixel analysis, object detection, shape interpretation, texture evaluation, and semantic understanding. The crux of the review revolves around AI's pivotal role in environmental control, examining its specific implementations in wastewater treatment and solid waste management. Moreover, the study accentuates the significance of AI-driven early-warning systems, empowering proactive responses to environmental threats. Through a meticulous analysis, the review underscores AI's unparalleled capacity to enhance accuracy, adaptability, and real-time decision-making, effectively positioning it as a cornerstone in shaping a sustainable and resilient future for environmental monitoring and preservation.

Modeling the air pollution process using a novel multi-site and multi-scale method with adaptive utilization of spatio-temporal information

This study focuses on modeling air quality with an adaptive utilization of spatio-temporal information from multiple air quality monitoring stations under a multi-scale framework. To this end, it is necessary to consider different strategies to combine different methods to decompose the given series and to fuse multi-site information. Based on a systematic comparative analysis, we propose a novel multi-scale and multi-site modeling method named the multivariate empirical mode decomposition and spatial cosine-attention-based long short-term memory (MEMD-SCA-LSTM). The MEMD-SCA-LSTM first employs MEMD to decompose the multi-site air quality series into the scale-aligned components and then models the components at different scales. The high-frequency components are modeled by a novel SCA-LSTM, which employs LSTM with residual blocks to extract the temporal information and utilizes an attention mechanism based on the cosine similarity to adaptively extract interactions among different sites. Other relatively regular components are modeled by the LSTM. Empirical study on PM2.5 in Hong Kong has demonstrated the effectiveness of fusing multi-site information using the spatial attention (SA) mechanism under the multi-scale framework with MEMD. The proposed MEMD-SCA-LSTM can improve the one-day ahead modeling performance with the mean absolute error and the root mean square error reduced over 10%, compared to the baseline modeling methods. For the two-day and three-day ahead performance, the MEMD-SCA-LSTM is still the best one. Furthermore, by visualizing the attention weights, we illustrate that our proposed SCA-LSTM can overcome some limitations of the traditional attention mechanisms and that the attention weights exhibit more informative patterns which could be used to analysis the transport of air pollutant between sites. The proposed modeling method is a general method, which is feasible and applicable to other pollutants in other cities or regions.

Importance of secondary decomposition in the accurate prediction of daily-scale ozone pollution by machine learning

Machine learning (ML) models have been proven as a reliable tool in predicting ambient pollution concentrations at various places in the world. However, their performance in predicting the maximum daily 8-h averaged ozone (MDA8 O3), the metric often used for O3 pollution assessment and management, is relatively poorer. This is largely resulted from more irregular data fluctuations of the MDA8 O3 levels governed collectively by the synoptic condition, local photochemistry, and long-range transport. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of MDA8 O3, this study developed a secondary decomposition ML model framework which coupled the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) as the primary decomposition, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) as secondary decomposition, and the gate recurrent unit (GRU) ML model. By applying this secondary decomposition model framework on MDA8 O3 prediction for the first time, we showed that the prediction accuracy of MDA8 O3 is largely improved from R2 of 0.46 and RMSE of 30.4 μg/m3 for GRU without decomposition to R2 of 0.91 and RMSE of 12.6 μg/m3 over the Pearl River Delta of China. We also found that the prediction accuracy rate of O3 pollution non-attainments, an essential indicator for initiating contingency O3 pollution control, improved greatly from 14.9 % for GRU without decomposition to 72.5 %. The performance of O3 pollution non-attainment prediction is relatively higher in southwestern PRD, which is mainly due to greater number and severity of O3 non-attainments in southwestern cities located downwind of the emission hotspot area at central PRD. This study underscored the importance of secondary decomposition in accurately predicting daily-scale O3 concentration and non-attainments over the PRD, which can be extended to other photochemically active region worldwide to improve their O3 prediction accuracy and assist in O3 contingency control.

Water quality analysis based on LSTM and BP optimization with a transfer learning model

In the urban water environmental management, a fast and effective method for water quality analysis should be established with the rapid urbanization. In this study, the Beijing's sub-center was chosen as a case study, and long short-term memory (LSTM) and back propagation (BP) models were built, then a transfer learning model was proposed and applied to optimize the two models on the base of the upstream and downstream relationships in the rivers. The results indicated that the proposed deep learning model could improve NSE by 7% and 9% for LSTM and BP at the Dongguan Bridge gauge, respectively. At the Xugezhuang gauge in the Liangshui River, NSE was improved by 11% and 17%, respectively. At the Yulinzhuang gauge, it was improved by 16% and 13%, respectively. Because the upstream and downstream relationships were considered in the learning model, the model performance was obviously better. In brief, this method would provide an idea for the effective water quality model construction in the ungauged basins or regions.

Multiscale information interaction at local frequency band in functional corticomuscular coupling

The multiscale information interaction between the cortex and the corresponding muscles is of great significance for understanding the functional corticomuscular coupling (FCMC) in the sensory-motor systems. Though the multiscale transfer entropy (MSTE) method can effectively detect the multiscale characteristics between two signals, it lacks in describing the local frequency-band characteristics. Therefore, to quantify the multiscale interaction at local-frequency bands between the cortex and the muscles, we proposed a novel method, named bivariate empirical mode decomposition-MSTE (BMSTE), by combining the bivariate empirical mode decomposition (BEMD) with MSTE. To verify this, we introduced two simulation models and then applied it to explore the FCMC by analyzing the EEG over brain scalp and surface EMG signals from the effector muscles during steady-state force output. The simulation results showed that the BMSTE method could describe the multiscale time-frequency characteristics compared with the MSTE method, and was sensitive to the coupling strength but not to the data length. The experiment results showed that the coupling at beta1 (15-25 Hz), beta2 (25-35 Hz) and gamma (35-60 Hz) bands in the descending direction was higher than that in the opposition, and at beta2 band was higher than that at beta1 band. Furthermore, there were significant differences at the low scales in beta1 band, almost all scales in beta2 band, and high scales in gamma band. These results suggest the effectiveness of the BMSTE method in describing the interaction between two signals at different time-frequency scales, and further provide a novel approach to understand the motor control.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11571-022-09895-y.

Machine Learning in Environmental Research: Common Pitfalls and Best Practices

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used in environmental research to process large data sets and decipher complex relationships between system variables. However, due to the lack of familiarity and methodological rigor, inadequate ML studies may lead to spurious conclusions. In this study, we synthesized literature analysis with our own experience and provided a tutorial-like compilation of common pitfalls along with best practice guidelines for environmental ML research. We identified more than 30 key items and provided evidence-based data analysis based on 148 highly cited research articles to exhibit the misconceptions of terminologies, proper sample size and feature size, data enrichment and feature selection, randomness assessment, data leakage management, data splitting, method selection and comparison, model optimization and evaluation, and model explainability and causality. By analyzing good examples on supervised learning and reference modeling paradigms, we hope to help researchers adopt more rigorous data preprocessing and model development standards for more accurate, robust, and practicable model uses in environmental research and applications.

Air quality prediction for Chengdu based on long short-term memory neural network with improved jellyfish search optimizer

Air quality prediction plays an important role in preventing air pollution and improving living environment. For this prediction, many indicators can be employed to reflect the air quality, among which air quality index (AQI) is the most commonly used. However, existing methods are relatively simple and the corresponding prediction accuracy needs to be improved. Particularly, the prediction accuracy is affected by the parameter selection of methods, and the corresponding optimization problems are usually non-convex and multi-modal. Therefore, based on long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network with improved jellyfish search optimizer (IJSO), a novel hybrid model denoted by IJSO-LSTM is proposed to predict AQI for Chengdu. In order to evaluate the optimizing ability of IJSO, other variants of jellyfish search optimizer as well as other state-of-the-art meta-heuristic algorithms are applied to optimize the hyperparameters of LSTM neural network for comparison, and the results confirm that IJSO is more suitable for optimizing LSTM neural network. In addition, compared with other well-known models, the results demonstrate IJSO-LSTM has higher prediction accuracy with root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error controlling below 4, 3, and 4%, respectively.

Evolution of neural network to deep learning in prediction of air, water pollution and its Indian context

The scenario of developed and developing countries nowadays is disturbed due to modern living style which affects environment, wildlife and natural habitat. Environmental quality has become or is a subject of major concern as it is responsible for health hazard of mankind and animals. Measurements and prediction of hazardous parameters in different fields of environment is a recent research topic for safety and betterment of people as well as nature. Pollution in nature is an after-effect of civilization. To combat the damage already happened, some processes should be evolved for measurement and prediction of pollution in various fields. Researchers of all over the world are active to find out ways of predicting such hazard. In this paper, application of neural network and deep learning algorithms is chosen for air pollution and water pollution cases. The purpose of this review is to reveal how family of neural network algorithms has applied on these two pollution parameters. In this paper, importance is given on algorithm, and datasets used for air and water pollution as well as the predicted parameters have also been noted for ease of future development. One major concern of this paper is Indian context of air and water pollution research, and the research potential presents in this area using Indian dataset. Another aspect for including both air and water pollutions in one review paper is to generate an idea of artificial neural network and deep learning techniques which can be cross applicable for future purpose.

Prediction of suspended sediment concentration in the lower Yellow River in China based on the coupled CEEMD-NAR model

The scientific and accurate prediction of suspended sediment concentrations is of great importance for river management in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and for the scheduling of water conservancy projects in the upper and middle reaches. In order to solve the influence of the non-linear and non-smooth characteristics of the suspended sediment concentration series in the lower Yellow River on the prediction results and improve the prediction accuracy, this paper proposes a coupled model based on Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) and non-linear autoregressive (NAR) model. Take the predicted suspended sediment concentrations in the lower reaches of the Yellow River at the Huayuankou hydrographic station as an example. The accuracy and stability of the coupled CEEMD-NAR model were verified through the Gaocun and Lijin hydrological stations. The CEEMD-NAR model predicted suspended sediment concentrations with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) factor of 0.93. The three statistical evaluation indicators of the CEEMD-NAR model, mean absolute error (MAE), mean relative error (MRE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were 2.12 kg/m³, 1.07, and 3.75 kg/m³ respectively. In contrast to the NAR, EMD-NAR, and EEMD-NAR models, the coupled CEEMD-NAR model has good stability and high prediction accuracy and can be used in non-linear, non-smooth suspended sediment concentration long series prediction.

A Novel Groundwater Burial Depth Prediction Model Based on Two-Stage Modal Decomposition and Deep Learning

The variability of groundwater burial depths is critical to regional water management. In order to reduce the impact of high-frequency eigenmodal functions (IMF) generated by complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) on the prediction results, variational modal decomposition (VMD) is performed on the high frequency IMF components after the primary modal decomposition. A convolutional neural network-gated recurrent unit prediction model (CNN-GRU) is proposed to address the shortcomings of traditional machine learning which cannot handle correlation information and temporal correlation between time series. The CNN-GRU model can extract the implicit features of the coupling relationship between groundwater burial depth and time series and further predict the groundwater burial depth time series. By comparing the prediction results with GRU, CEEMDAN-GRU, and CEEMDAN-CNN-GRU models, we found that the CEEMDAN-VMD-CNN-GRU prediction model outperformed the other prediction models, with a prediction accuracy of 94.29%, good prediction results, and high model confidence.

Forecasting of Beijing PM2.5 with a hybrid ARIMA model based on integrated AIC and improved GS fixed-order methods and seasonal decomposition

Accurate particulate matter 2.5 (PM_2.5) prediction plays a crucial role in the accurate management of air pollution and prevention of respiratory diseases. However, PM_2.5, as a nonlinear time series with great volatility, is difficult to achieve accurate prediction. In this paper, a hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is proposed based on the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF root test) of annual PM_2.5 data, thus demonstrating the necessity of first-order difference. The new method of using integrated akaike information criterion (AIC) and improved grid search (GS) methods is proposed to avoid the bias caused by using AIC alone to determine the order because the data are not exactly normally distributed. The comprehensive evaluation coefficient (CEC) is used to select the optimal parameter structure of the prediction model by considering multiple evaluation perspectives. The entropy value of the decomposed series is obtained by using range entropy A (RangeEn_A), and the series is reconstructed according to the entropy value, and finally the reconstructed series is predicted. We used Beijing PM_2.5 data for validation and the results showed that the new hybrid ARIMA model improved values of RMSE 99.23%, MAE 99.20%, R² 118.61%, TIC 99.28%, NMAE 98.71%, NMSE 99.97%, OPC 43.13%, MOPC 98.43% and CEC 99.25% compared with the traditional ARIMA model. The results show that the method does greatly improve the prediction performance and provides a convincing tool for policy formulation and governance.

A multi-scale evolutionary deep learning model based on CEEMDAN, improved whale optimization algorithm, regularized extreme learning machine and LSTM for AQI prediction

With the rapid development of economy, air pollution occurs frequently, which has a huge negative impact on human health and urban ecosystem. Air quality index (AQI) can directly reflect the degree of air pollution. Accurate AQI trend prediction can provide reliable information for the prevention and control of air pollution, but traditional forecasting methods have limited performance. To this end, a dual-scale ensemble learning framework is proposed for the complex AQI time series prediction. First, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and sample entropy (SE) are used to decompose and reconstruct AQI series to reduce the difficulty of direct modeling. Then, according to the characteristics of high and low frequencies, the high-frequency components are predicted by the long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), and the low-frequency items are predicted by the regularized extreme learning machine (RELM). At the same time, the improved whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is used to optimize the hyper-parameters of RELM and LSTM models. Finally, the hybrid prediction model proposed in this paper predicts the AQI of four cities in China. This work effectively improves the prediction accuracy of AQI, which is of great significance to the sustainable development of the cities.

Extraction of multi-scale features enhances the deep learning-based daily PM2.5 forecasting in cities

Characterising the daily PM2.5 concentration is crucial for air quality control. To govern the status of the atmospheric environment, a novel hybrid model for PM2.5 forecasting was proposed by introducing a two-stage decomposition technology of complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and variational mode decomposition (VMD); subsequently, a deep learning approach of long short-term memory (LSTM) was proposed. Five cities with unique meteorological and economic characteristics were selected to assess the predictive ability of the proposed model. The results revealed that PM2.5 pollution was generally more severe in inland cities (66.98 ± 0.76 μg m^-3) than in coastal cities (40.46 ± 0.40 μg m-3). The modelling comparison showed that in each city, the secondary decomposition algorithm improved the accuracy and prediction stability of the prediction models. When compared with other prediction models, LSTM effectively extracted featured information and achieved relatively accurate time-series prediction. The hybrid model of CEEMDAN-VMD-LSTM achieved a better prediction in the five cities (R2 = 0.9803 ± 0.01) compared with the benchmark models (R2 = 0.7537 ± 0.03). The results indicate that the proposed approach can identify the inherent correlations and patterns among complex datasets, particularly in time-series analysis.

A new hybrid optimization prediction model for PM2.5 concentration considering other air pollutants and meteorological conditions

With the development of economy, the problem of air pollution has become increasingly serious. As an important detection index of air pollutants, how to accurately and effectively predict PM2.5 concentration is a significant issue related to human health and development. In this paper, a new hybrid optimization prediction model for PM2.5 concentration based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), variational mode decomposition optimized by COOT optimization algorithm (COOT-VMD), and least square support vector machine (LSSVM) optimized by the JAYA optimization algorithm (JAYA-LSSVM), named CEEMDAN-COOT-VMD-JAYA-LSSVM, is proposed. To avoid artificially setting the limits of the decomposition layer and penalty factor of VMD parameters, an improved VMD by COOT optimization algorithm, named COOT-VMD, is proposed. First, the original sequence of PM2.5 concentration is decomposed by CEEMDAN. Second, the high complexity component with low prediction accuracy after once decomposition is decomposed by COOT-VMD. Third, a prediction model of optimized LSSVM by JAYA optimization algorithm, named JAYA-LSSVM, is proposed. JAYA-LSSVM is used to predict all components considering other air pollutants such as PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, and O3 and meteorological conditions such as wind speed, temperature, sunlight, relative humidity and average air pressure. Finally, all predicted values are reconstructed to obtain the final prediction results. PM2.5 concentration from April 1, 2016 to March 29, 2021 in Xi'an and Shenyang is used as the experimental data to verify the proposed model. The results of experiment in Xi'an show that the RMSE, MAE, MAPE and R² are 2.843, 1.8344, 2.94%, and 0.99525 respectively. The results of experiment in Shenyang show that the RMSE, MAE, MAPE and R² are 2.2714, 1.673, 3.13%, and 0.99573 respectively. Compared to other single and hybrid models, the proposed model can accurately predict PM2.5 concentration. Diebold Mariano test results display the proposed prediction model is superior to all comparison models at 99% confidence level.

A new hybrid prediction model of air quality index based on secondary decomposition and improved kernel extreme learning machine

Air quality index (AQI) prediction is important to control air pollution. To improve its accuracy, a new hybrid prediction model of AQI based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), multivariate multiscale dispersion entropy (mvMDE), variational mode decomposition optimized by bald eagle search (BES) algorithm (BVMD) and kernel extreme learning machine optimized by rat swarm optimizer (RSO) algorithm (RSO-KELM), named CEEMDAN-mvMDE-BVMD-RSO-KELM, is proposed. Firstly, AQI series is decomposed by CEEMDAN to obtain multiple intrinsic mode function (IMF) components, and each IMF component's complexity is calculated by mvMDE. Secondly, VMD optimized by BES algorithm, named BVMD, is proposed to solve the problem of choosing the decomposition level K and penalty factor α of VMD, and BVMD is used to perform the secondary decomposition of high complexity components. Thirdly, the penalty coefficient and kernel parameter of KELM optimized by RSO algorithm, named RSO-KELM, is proposed, and all IMF components are predicted by RSO-KELM. Finally, the final prediction results are obtained by reconstructing the prediction results of all IMF components. The objective of this study is to propose a new hybrid prediction model of AQI based on secondary decomposition and improved KELM. Taking Shanghai, Beijing and Xi'an as examples, the results show that compared with the comparison models, the proposed model has the highest prediction accuracy.

A novel hybrid model for six main pollutant concentrations forecasting based on improved LSTM neural networks

In recent years, air pollution has become a factor that cannot be ignored, affecting human lives and health. The distribution of high-density populations and high-intensity development and construction have accentuated the problem of air pollution in China. To accelerate air pollution control and effectively improve environmental air quality, the target of our research was cities with serious air pollution problems to establish a model for air pollution prediction. We used the daily monitoring data of air pollution from January 2016 to December 2020 for the respective cities. We used the long short term memory networks (LSTM) algorithm model to solve the problem of gradient explosion in recurrent neural networks, then used the particle swarm optimization algorithm to determine the parameters of the CNN-LSTM model, and finally introduced the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition of adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) decomposition to decompose air pollution and improve the accuracy of model prediction. The experimental results show that compared with a single LSTM model, the CEEMDAN-CNN-LSTM model has higher accuracy and lower prediction errors. The CEEMDAN-CNN-LSTM model enables a more precise prediction of air pollution, and may thus be useful for sustainable management and the control of air pollution.

Deep neural networks for spatiotemporal PM2.5 forecasts based on atmospheric chemical transport model output and monitoring data

Reliable long-horizon PM_2.5 forecasts are crucial and beneficial for health protection through early warning against air pollution. However, the dynamic nature of air quality makes PM_2.5 forecasts at long horizons very challenging. This study proposed a novel machine learning-based model (MCNN-BP) that fused multiple convolutional neural networks (MCNN) with a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) for making spatiotemporal PM_2.5 forecasts for the next 72 h at 74 stations covering the whole Taiwan simultaneously. Model configuration involved an ensemble of massive hourly air quality and meteorological monitoring datasets and the existing publicly-available PM_2.5 simulated (forecasted) datasets from an atmospheric chemical transport (ACT) model. The proposed methodology collaboratively constructed two CNNs to mine the observed data (the past) and the forecasted data from ACT (the future) separately. The results showed that the MCNN-BP model could significantly improve the accuracy of spatiotemporal PM_2.5 forecasts and substantially reduce the forecast biases of the ACT model. We demonstrated that the proposed MCNN-BP model with effective feature extraction and good denoising ability could overcome the curse of dimensionality and offer satisfactory regional long-horizon PM_2.5 forecasts. Moreover, the MCNN-BP model has considerably shorter computational time (5 min) and lower computational load than the compute-intensive ACT model. The proposed approach hits a milestone in multi-site and multi-horizon forecasting, which significantly contributes to early warning against regional air pollution.

Prediction of Retail Price of Sporting Goods Based on LSTM Network

Commodity prices play a unique role as a lever to regulate the economy. Price forecasting is an important part of macrodecision-making and micromanagement. Because there are many factors affecting the price of goods, price prediction has become a difficulty in research. According to the characteristics that price data are also affected by other factors except for time series, a multifactor LSTM price prediction method is proposed based on the long-term and short-term memory network (LSTM) deep learning algorithm. This method not only makes use of the memory of LSTM to historical data but also introduces the influence of external factors on price through the full connection layer, which provides a new idea for solving the problem of price prediction. Compared with BP neural network, the experimental results show that this method has higher accuracy and better stability. Analyze the commodity description and commodity price characteristics, find out the commodities similar to the target commodity, complete the commodity price data by using the historical price data of similar commodities, and establish the training set to verify the validity of the proposed method.

24-Hour prediction of PM2.5 concentrations by combining empirical mode decomposition and bidirectional long short-term memory neural network

Accurate prediction of the future PM2.5 concentration is crucial to human health and ecological environmental protection. Nowadays, deep learning methods show advantages in the prediction of PM2.5 concentration, but few of the studies can achieve accurate prediction of short term (within 6 h) concentration and also catch longer term (6-24 h) change trends. To address this issue, this study constructs a novel hybrid prediction model by combining the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method, sample entropy (SE) index and bidirectional long and short-term memory neural network (BiLSTM) to predict 0-24 h PM2.5 concentrations. The experimental results show that the hybrid model has good performance on PM2.5 prediction with R2 = 0.987, RMSE = 2.77 μg/m3 at T + 1 moment and R2 = 0.904, RMSE = 7.51 μg/m3 at T + 6 moment. The novel model improves the accuracy on short-term (within 6 h) prediction of PM2.5 concentrations by at least 50% compared with other single deep learning models. Moreover, it well catches the variation trend of PM2.5 concentrations after 6 h till 24 h.

Development and application of an automated air quality forecasting system based on machine learning

As one of the most concerned issues in modern society, air quality has received extensive attentions from the public and the government, which promotes the continuous development and progress of air quality forecasting technology. In this study, an automated air quality forecasting system based on machine learning has been developed and applied for daily forecasts of six common pollutants (PM_2.5, PM_10, SO₂, NO₂, O₃, and CO) and pollution levels, which can automatically find the best "Model + Hyperparameters" without human intervention. Five machine learning models and an ensemble model (Stacked Generalization) were integrated into the system, supported by a knowledge base containing the meteorological observed data, pollutant concentrations, pollutant emissions, and model reanalysis data. Then five-year data (2015-2019) of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an, Wuhan, and Changchun in China, were used as an application case to study the effectiveness of the automated forecasting system. Based on the analysis of seven evaluation criteria and pollution level forecasts, combined with the forecasting results for the next 3-days, it is found that the automated system can achieve satisfactory forecasting performance, better than most of numerical model results. This implied that the developed system unveils a good application prospect in the field of environmental meteorology.

A systematic literature review of deep learning neural network for time series air quality forecasting

Rapid progress of industrial development, urbanization and traffic has caused air quality reduction that negatively affects human health and environmental sustainability, especially among developed countries. Numerous studies on the development of air quality forecasting model using machine learning have been conducted to control air pollution. As such, there are significant numbers of reviews on the application of machine learning in air quality forecasting. Shallow architectures of machine learning exhibit several limitations and yield lower forecasting accuracy than deep learning architecture. Deep learning is a new technology in computational intelligence; thus, its application in air quality forecasting is still limited. This study aims to investigate the deep learning applications in time series air quality forecasting. Owing to this, literature search is conducted thoroughly from all scientific databases to avoid unnecessary clutter. This study summarizes and discusses different types of deep learning algorithms applied in air quality forecasting, including the theoretical backgrounds, hyperparameters, applications and limitations. Hybrid deep learning with data decomposition, optimization algorithm and spatiotemporal models are also presented to highlight those techniques' effectiveness in tackling the drawbacks of individual deep learning models. It is clearly stated that hybrid deep learning was able to forecast future air quality with higher accuracy than individual models. At the end of the study, some possible research directions are suggested for future model development. The main objective of this review study is to provide a comprehensive literature summary of deep learning applications in time series air quality forecasting that may benefit interested researchers for subsequent research.

A new hybrid prediction model of cumulative COVID-19 confirmed data

Establishing an accurate and efficient prediction model is of great significance for governments and other social organizations to formulate prevention and control policies and curb the explosive spread of the pandemic. To improve prediction accuracy of cumulative COVID-19 confirmed data, a new hybrid prediction model based on gradient-based optimizer variational mode decomposition (GVMD), extreme learning machine (ELM), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), named GVMD-ELM-ARIMA, is proposed. To solve the problem of selecting the k value and the penalty factor α in variational mode decomposition (VMD), this paper proposes gradient-based optimizer variational mode decomposition (GVMD), which realizes the self-adaptive determination of k value and α value. Firstly, GVMD decomposes the cumulative COVID-19 confirmed data into some intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual component (IMFr). Secondly, IMFs are predicted by ELM. Then, IMFr is predicted by ARIMA. Finally, the final prediction results are obtained by reconstructing the prediction result of IMFs and IMFr. The cumulative COVID-19 confirmed data of the United States, India and Russia is used to verify its effectiveness. Taking the United States as an example, compared with the average MAPE, RMSE and MAE of the single model, the average MAPE of the hybrid model is reduced by 47.27%, the average RMSE is reduced by 44.50%, and the average MAE is reduced by 55.34%. Compared with GVMD-ELM-ELM, GVMD-ELM-ARIMA proposed in this paper reduces the MAPE by 60%, the RMSE by 56.85%, and the MAE by 61.61%. The experimental results show that GVMD-ELM-ARIMA has best prediction accuracy, and it provides a new method for predicting the cumulative COVID-19 confirmed data.

Determinants investigation and peak prediction of CO2 emissions in China's transport sector utilizing bio-inspired extreme learning machine

The transport sector is recognized as one of the largest carbon emitters. To achieve China's carbon peak commitment in the Paris Agreement on schedule, it is indispensable to explore the peak carbon emissions and mitigation strategies in the transport sector. Many researches in the past have contextualized in China's total emissions peak, while the study about forecasting China's transport CO₂ emissions peak seldom appeared, especially the application of intelligent prediction model. To further investigate the determinants and forecast the peak of transport CO₂ emissions in China accurately, a novel bio-inspired prediction model is proposed in this paper, namely, the extreme learning machine (ELM) optimized by manta rays foraging optimization (MRFO), hereafter referred as MRFO-ELM. Adhering to this hybrid model, the mean impact value (MIV) method is then employed to evaluate and differentiate the importance of thirteen influencing factors. Additionally, three scenarios are set to conduct prediction of China's transport CO₂ emissions. The empirical results indicate that the proposed MRFO-ELM has excellent performance in terms of the optimization searching velocity and prediction accuracy. Simultaneously the level of vehicle electrification is verified to be one of the emerging major factors affecting China's transport CO₂ emissions. The transport CO₂ emissions in China would peak in 2039 under the baseline model scenario, while the plateau would occur in 2035 or 2043 under sustainable development mode and high growth mode, respectively. The peak years imply much pressure on China's transport carbon emissions abatement currently, whereas active policy adjustments can effectively urge the earlier occurrence of the emission peak. These new findings suggest that it is essential for China to improve the energy mix and encourage the electric energy replacement in line with urbanization pace, so as to achieve CO₂ emissions mitigation in the transport industry.

An innovative coupled model in view of wavelet transform for predicting short-term PM10 concentration

Wavelet transform (WT) is an advanced preprocessing technique, which has been widely used in PM 10 prediction. However, this technique cannot provide stable performance due to the empirical selection of wavelet's layers. For fixing the optimal wavelet's layers in PM10 forecasting, an innovative coupled model based on WT, long short-term memory (LSTM), and SAE (stacked autoencoder) are proposed. This study designs a crossover experiment with 960 high- and low-frequency components by wavelet decomposition and predicts each component with SAE-LSTM based on 12 samples from different regions. The results indicate that the developed model outperforms other BiLSTM (Biredictional LSTM) and LSTM based on some error evaluation indicators (i.e. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSEC)), and compared with other steps, the accuracy of two-step prediction is the highest in view of root mean squares error (RMSE). In addition, for 12 samples, the prediction accuracy by using high layers is higher than that by adopting low layers for decomposing them. This paper fixes the optimal wavelet' layers in PM10 prediction, which provides a meaningful reference in other prediction scenarios based on the application of WT.

A Hybrid Model for Air Quality Prediction Based on Data Decomposition

Accurate and reliable air quality predictions are critical to the ecological environment and public health. For the traditional model fails to make full use of the high and low frequency information obtained after wavelet decomposition, which easily leads to poor prediction performance of the model. This paper proposes a hybrid prediction model based on data decomposition, choosing wavelet decomposition (WD) to generate high-frequency detail sequences WD(D) and low-frequency approximate sequences WD(A), using sliding window high-frequency detail sequences WD(D) for reconstruction processing, and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for WD(D) and WD(A) sequences for prediction. The final prediction results of air quality can be obtained by accumulating the predicted values of each sub-sequence, which reduces the root mean square error (RMSE) by 52%, mean absolute error (MAE) by 47%, and increases the goodness of fit (R2) by 18% compared with the single prediction model. Compared with the mixed model, reduced the RMSE by 3%, reduced the MAE by 3%, and increased the R2 by 0.5%. The experimental verification found that the proposed prediction model solves the problem of lagging prediction results of single prediction model, which is a feasible air quality prediction method.

A novel method for identifying hotspots and forecasting air quality through an adaptive utilization of spatio-temporal information of multiple factors

Air pollution exerts serious impacts on human health and sustainable development. The accurate forecasting of air quality can guide the formulation of mitigation strategies and reduce exposure to air pollution. It is beneficial to explicitly consider both spatial and temporal information of multiple factors, e.g., the meteorological data, in the forecasting of air pollutant concentrations. The temporal information of relevant factors collected at a location should be considered for forecasting. In addition, these factors recorded at other locations may also provide useful information. Existing methods utilizing the spatio-temporal information of these relevant factors are usually based on some very complicated frameworks. In this study, we propose a novel and simple spatial attention-based long short-term memory (SA-LSTM) that combines LSTM and a spatial attention mechanism to adaptively utilize the spatio-temporal information of multiple factors for forecasting air pollutant concentrations. Specifically, the SA-LSTM employs gated recurrent connections to extract temporal information of multiple factors at individual locations, and the spatial attention mechanism to spatially fuse the temporal information extracted at these locations. This method is effective and applicable to forecast any air pollutant concentrations when spatio-temporal information of relevant factors has to be utilized. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed SA-LSTM, we apply it to forecast the daily air quality in Hong Kong, a high density city with peculiar cityscapes, by using the air quality and meteorological data. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed SA-LSTM outperforms the conventional models with respect to one-day forecast accuracy, especially for extreme values. Moreover, the attention weights learned by the SA-LSTM can identify hotspots of the air pollution process for reducing computational complexity of forecasting and provide a better understanding of the underlying mechanism of air pollution.

Multi-scale deep learning and optimal combination ensemble approach for AQI forecasting using big data with meteorological conditions

Faced with the rapid update of nonlinear and irregular big data from the environmental monitoring system, both the public and managers urgently need reliable methods to predict possible air pollutions in the future. Therefore, a multi-scale deep learning (MDL) and optimal combination ensemble (OCE) approach for hourly air quality index (AQI) forecasting is proposed in this paper, named MDL-OCE model. Before normal modeling, all original data are preprocessed through missing data filling and outlier testing to ensure smooth computation. Due to the complexity of such big data, slope-based ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is adopted to decompose the time series of AQI and meteorological conditions into a finite number of simple intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residue component. Then, to unify the number of components of different variables, the fine-to-coarse (FC) technique is used to reconstruct all components into high frequency component (HF), low frequency component (LF), and trend component (TC). For purpose of extracting the underlying relationship between AQI and meteorological conditions, the three components are respectively trained and predicted by different deep learning architectures (stacked sparse autoencoder (SSAE)) with a multilayer perceptron (MLP). The corresponding forecasting results of three components are merged by OCE method to better achieve the ultimate AQI forecasting outputs. The empirical results clearly demonstrate that our proposed MDL-OCE model outperforms other advanced benchmark models in terms of forecasting performances in all cases.

A Simple Dendritic Neural Network Model-Based Approach for Daily PM2.5 Concentration Prediction

Air pollution in cities has a massive impact on human health, and an increase in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations is the main reason for air pollution. Due to the chaotic and intrinsic complexities of PM2.5 concentration time series, it is difficult to utilize traditional approaches to extract useful information from these data. Therefore, a neural model with a dendritic mechanism trained via the states of matter search algorithm (SDNN) is employed to conduct daily PM2.5 concentration forecasting. Primarily, the time delay and embedding dimensions are calculated via the mutual information-based method and false nearest neighbours approach to train the data, respectively. Then, the phase space reconstruction is performed to map the PM2.5 concentration time series into a high-dimensional space based on the obtained time delay and embedding dimensions. Finally, the SDNN is employed to forecast the PM2.5 concentration. The effectiveness of this approach is verified through extensive experimental evaluations, which collect six real-world datasets from recent years. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to utilize a dendritic neural model to perform real-world air quality forecasting. The extensive experimental results demonstrate that the SDNN offers very competitive performance relative to the latest prediction techniques.

Spatio-temporal variation and daily prediction of PM2.5 concentration in world-class urban agglomerations of China

The contradiction between the development of urban agglomerations and ecological protection has long been a challenging issue. China has experienced an astonishing expansion of its urban scale in the past 40 years, and nearly 783 million of the nation's people now live in cities. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta have been prioritized to become world-class clusters by 2020. The health effects of air pollution in these three urban agglomerations are becoming increasingly formidable. Given these conditions, using the daily mean PM_2.5 concentration in 40 cities from January 2014 to December 2016, this research explored the spatial-temporal characteristics of PM_2.5 concentrations in these three urban agglomerations. The annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are 35.39 µg/m³, 53.72 µg/m³ and 78.54 µg/m³, respectively. Compared with the other two urban agglomerations, abundant rainfall causes the Pearl River Delta to have the lowest PM_2.5 level. Furthermore, a general regression neural network (GRNN) method is developed to predict the PM_2.5 concentration in these clusters on the second day, with inputs including the average, maximum and minimum temperature; average, maximum and minimum atmosphere; total rainfall; average humidity; average and maximum wind speed; and the PM_2.5 concentration measured 1 day ahead. The results indicate that the GRNN method can precisely predict the concentration level in these clusters, and it is especially useful for the Pearl River Delta, as the underlying influence mechanism is more specified in this cluster than in the others. Importantly, this 1-day-ahead forecasting of PM_2.5 concentrations can raise awareness among the public to improve their precautionary behaviours and help urban planners to provide corresponding support.

Integration of PV into the Sarajevo Canton Energy System-Air Quality and Heating Challenges

The use of renewable energy sources increases the energy self-sustainability of cities, enabling citizens to reduce energy costs, which results in an increase in their standard of living. However, solar energy penetration in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and its capital Sarajevo, is not in line with the possibilities. Furthermore, the Sarajevo Canton is extremely polluted during the winter months because of the use of unacceptable heating fuel. The aim of this paper is to introduce photovoltaic power systems use in heating electrification system. In this paper AQI is calculated based on historical data and the hybrid model EMD-SARIMA for air pollution and a solar production forecast is presented. The methodology was tested in the Sarajevo Canton, taking into account 35,000 households. In order to ensure clean air, renewable electric energy use for household heating should be implemented. The widespread use of inefficient individual heating systems characterized by inefficient and expensive use of firewood and the use of coal in individual furnaces in populated areas are the main problems of internal and urban air pollution in Sarajevo Canton. In order to reduce energy poverty in Sarajevo Canton, the use of a floating photovoltaic power plant located on Lake Jablanica with a capacity of 30 MW and the solar prosumers with capacity of 115 MW to provide the 196 GWh necessary for heating electrification of 35,000 households is implemented in this paper. Finally, based on correlation between AQI forecast and solar production it was calculated that the values of the AQI, considering the application of solar energy during 150 days (five months) in one heating season, have significantly decreased. Also renewable energy sources have a very important role in reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into the atmosphere and reducing urban pollution. With this approach, households would be heated by renewable electricity, which would make Sarajevo a cleaner, smarter city.

Seasonal variations in PM10 inorganic composition in the Andean city

Particulate matter (PM) is one of the key pollutants causing health risks worldwide. While the preoccupation for increased concentrations of these particles mainly depends on their sources and thus chemical composition, some regions are yet not well investigated. In this work the composition of chemical elements of atmospheric PM₁₀ (particles with aerodynamic diameters ≤ 10 µm), collected at the urban and suburban sites in high elevation tropical city, were chemically analysed during the dry and wet seasons of 2017-2018. A large fraction (~ 68%) of PM₁₀ composition in Quito, Ecuador is accounted for by water-soluble ions and 16 elements analysed using UV/VIS spectrophotometer and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Optical Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-OES). Hierarchical clustering analysis was performed to study a correlation between the chemical composition of urban pollution and meteorological parameters. The suburban area displays an increase in PM₁₀ concentrations and natural elemental markers during the dry (increased wind intensity, resuspension of soil dust) season. Meanwhile, densely urbanized area shows increased total PM₁₀ concentrations and anthropogenic elemental markers during the wet season, which may point to the worsened combustion and traffic conditions. This might indicate the prevalence of cardiovascular and respiratory problems in motorized areas of the cities in the developing world.

Double decomposition and optimal combination ensemble learning approach for interval-valued AQI forecasting using streaming data

To forecast possible future environmental risks, numerous models are developed to predict the hourly values or daily averages of air pollutant concentrations using streaming data (a kind of big data collected from the Internet). On the one hand, real-time hourly data is massive and redundant, making it difficult to process. On the other hand, daily averages cannot reflect the fluctuations of air pollutant concentrations throughout the day. Therefore, a double decomposition and optimal combination ensemble learning approach is proposed for interval-valued AQI (air quality index) forecasting in this paper. In the first decomposition, considering the strong seasonal representation of AQI, the original data of each year is decomposed into four seasonal subseries on the basis of the Chinese calendar. Subsequently, we reconstruct the data of the same season in different years to get a new seasonal series to reduce the interference of seasonal changes on AQI forecasting. In the second decomposition, due to the nonlinearity and irregularity of interval-valued AQI time series, BEMD (bivariate empirical mode decomposition) is employed to decompose the interval-valued signals into a finite number of complex-valued IMF (intrinsic mode function) components and one complex-valued residue component with different frequencies to reduce the complexity of interval times series. Interval multilayer perceptron (iMLP) is utilized to model the lower bound and the upper bound simultaneously of the total components to obtain the corresponding forecasting results, which are merged to produce the final interval-valued output by an optimal combination ensemble method. Empirical study results show that the proposed model with different datasets and different forecasting horizons is significantly better than other considered models for its superior forecasting performances.

Air Pollutant Concentration Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Based on Wavelet Transform and Information Gain: A Case Study of Beijing

Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective way which protects health of the public by the warning of the harmful air contaminants. In this study, a hybrid prediction model has been established by using information gain, wavelet decomposition transform technique, and LSTM neural network, and applied to the daily concentration prediction of atmospheric pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO) in Beijing. First, the collected raw data are selected by feature selection by information gain, and a set of factors having a strong correlation with the prediction is obtained. Then, the historical time series of the daily air pollutant concentration is decomposed into different frequencies by using a wavelet decomposition transform and recombined into a high-dimensional training data set. Finally, the LSTM prediction model is trained with high-dimensional data sets, and the parameters are adjusted by repeated tests to obtain the optimal prediction model. The data used in this study were derived from six air pollution concentration data in Beijing from 1/1/2014 to 31/12/2016, and the atmospheric pollutant concentration data of Beijing between 1/1/2017 and 31/12/2017 were used to test the predictive ability of the data set test model. The results show that the evaluation index MAPE of the model prediction is 7.45%. Therefore, the hybrid prediction model has a higher value of application for atmospheric pollutant concentration prediction, because this model has higher prediction accuracy and stability for future air pollutant concentration prediction.

A hybrid intelligent predicting model for exploring household CO2 emissions mitigation strategies derived from butterfly optimization algorithm

The warming on earth is having a profound impact on human survival. With the improvement of people' living standard, the consumption of energy in residential sector has raised swiftly, leading to a rapid increase in corresponding CO₂ emissions. To effectively mitigate household emissions, taking the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in China as a case study, this paper proposes a novel intelligent model combining driving forces exploration and prediction. The work first estimates the residential energy-related CO₂ emissions precisely, and then the bivariate correlation analysis will be applied to analyze region discrepancy in main affecting factors of emissions based on 13 preliminary indicators. To obtain the principal information of above influencing factors as the input of prediction model, the kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) is introduced innovatively. Besides, butterfly optimization algorithm (BOA) is enhanced to better optimize the parameters of least square support vector machine (LSSVM). The new proposed hybrid model, hereafter called as EBOA-LSSVM, will be utilized to predict residential CO₂ emissions in the YRD. Ultimate simulation results present the new model's prominent performance through comparing prediction accuracy with other models. Finally, this article provides some advice for policy makers to guide CO₂ emissions reduction from residents department.