Impacts of warming on tropical lowland rainforests

High-resolution dynamically downscaled projections of future extreme temperatures, heatwaves and exposure in Southeast Asia

Extreme heat and heatwaves driven by global warming pose escalating risks globally, particularly in Southeast Asia (SEA), home to 680 million people, with a high concentration in urban areas. This study made use of CMIP6-based convection-permitting dynamically downscaled simulations at 8 km resolution over SEA under the three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Projected changes in daily maximum temperatures and key heat metrics including the frequency of hotter days, heatwaves, and cumulative heat intensity and exposure time were analyzed across the region, as well as for individual countries and cities, for the near future (2040-2059) and far future (2080-2099) relative to the historical baseline (1995-2014). Results indicate a substantial rise in daily maximum temperatures over SEA, with average increases of 1.0-2.1 °C by 2040-2059 and 1.1-4.0 °C by 2080-2099 across the three scenarios. The Mekong Delta, eastern Sumatra and southern Borneo are identified as hotspots with pronounced temperature increase. More frequent and prolonged heatwaves are also projected over SEA, with heatwave frequency and duration doubling around 2025 and 2040, respectively, across the three scenarios, and increasing fivefold around 2045 and 2070, respectively, under SSP5-8.5. Specifically, the Maritime Continent is projected to face a notably higher frequency of hotter days, establishing a new heat norm by the end of the century. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, approximately 4 and 9 months/year, respectively, will be as hot as or hotter than the historical 5 % hottest days. Cities along the Strait of Malacca and on Java are expected to experience extreme heat with heightened cumulative intensity and longer durations. Mitigating emissions along a low-carbon pathway would provide substantial benefits for the Maritime Continent in the second half of the century, not only for human health but also for agriculture and ecosystems. This study provides the highest resolution and most updated projections of extreme heat over SEA to help inform targeted climate adaption strategies in this highly vulnerable region.

Upslope plant species shifts in Mesoamerican cloud forests driven by climate and land use change

Global change drives biodiversity shifts worldwide, but these shifts are poorly understood in highly diverse tropical regions. In tropical mountains, plants are mostly expected to migrate upslope in response to warming. To assess this, we analyze shifts in elevation ranges of species in Mesoamerican cloud forests using three decades of species' occurrence records. Our findings reveal a mean upslope shift of 1.8 to 2.7 meters per year since 1979 driven by the upslope retreat of the less thermophilic montane species. These shifts are mostly accompanied by retreating lower and upper edges attributed to varying degrees of species' exposure to deforestation and climate change. Our results highlight the vulnerability of cloud forests under global change and the urgency to increase monitoring of species' responses.

Marine heatwaves imperil emblematic reef fishes by altering the energetic landscape of coral reefs

Marine heatwaves are increasingly common due to human-induced climate change. Under prolonged thermal stress on coral reefs, corals can undergo bleaching, leading to mass coral mortality and large-scale changes in benthic community composition. While coral mortality has clear, negative impacts on the body condition and populations of coral-dependent fish species, the mechanisms that drive these changes remain poorly resolved. Specifically, little is known about the effects of coral bleaching on (1) the nutritional quality of corals, (2) nutrient acquisition in coral-feeding butterflyfishes and (3) fish dietary selectivity and potential supplementary consumption of non-coral prey. Here, we evaluate the response of obligate coral-feeding butterflyfishes to a mass coral bleaching event in French Polynesia, which resulted in high coral mortality and a 50% decline in obligate corallivore density. We examine benthic and butterflyfish community composition over two decades, including a mass bleaching event in 2019 and multiple prior disturbances. We couple these data with surveys of butterflyfish feeding selectivity, high-resolution molecular assays of gut contents and nutrient acquisition before, during and after the bleaching event. Contrary to previous studies, obligate corallivores did not strongly alter their feeding preferences for different coral genera in response to bleaching. They did not increase their consumption of non-corals in response to coral mortality, and hard corals continued to dominate their diets (>90%). Instead, butterflyfishes targeted partially bleached corals that were likely releasing nutrient-rich mucus, and they avoided fully bleached and dead corals that were likely nutrient-depleted. Moreover, after bleaching, butterflyfishes exhibit reduced nitrogen assimilation, indicating that coral stress may adversely impact butterflyfish nutrient acquisition. Coupled with the increasing frequency of recurrent bleaching events, severe, long-term nutritional impacts of coral bleaching on butterflyfish populations may jeopardize the persistence of coral-feeding fishes in the future.

Vapor-pressure-deficit-controlled temperature response of photosynthesis in tropical trees

Rising temperatures can affect stomatal and nonstomatal control over photosynthesis, through stomatal closure in response to increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and biochemical limitations, respectively. To explore the independent effects of temperature and VPD, we conducted leaf-level temperature-response measurements while controlling VPD on three tropical tree species. Photosynthesis and stomatal conductance consistently decreased with increasing VPD, whereas photosynthesis typically responded weakly to changes in temperature when a stable VPD was maintained during measurements, resulting in wide parabolic temperature-response curves. We have shown that the negative effect of temperature on photosynthesis in tropical forests across ecologically important temperature ranges does not stem from direct warming effects on biochemical processes but from the indirect effect of warming, through changes in VPD. Understanding the acclimation potential of tropical trees to elevated VPD will be critical to anticipate the consequences of global warming for tropical forests.

Climate Change Potentially Leads to Habitat Expansion and Increases the Invasion Risk of Hydrocharis (Hydrocharitaceae)

Climate change is a crucial factor impacting the geographical distribution of plants and potentially increases the risk of invasion for certain species, especially for aquatic plants dispersed by water flow. Here, we combined six algorithms provided by the biomod2 platform to predict the changes in global climate-suitable areas for five species of Hydrocharis (Hydrocharitaceae) (H. chevalieri, H. dubia, H. laevigata, H. morsus-ranae, and H. spongia) under two current and future carbon emission scenarios. Our results show that H. dubia, H. morsus-ranae, and H. laevigata had a wide range of suitable areas and a high risk of invasion, while H. chevalieri and H. spongia had relatively narrow suitable areas. In the future climate scenario, the species of Hydrocharis may gain a wider habitat area, with Northern Hemisphere species showing a trend of migration to higher latitudes and the change in tropical species being more complex. The high-carbon-emission scenario led to greater changes in the habitat area of Hydrocharis. Therefore, we recommend strengthening the monitoring and reporting of high-risk species and taking effective measures to control the invasion of Hydrocharis species.

Tropical Trees Will Need to Acclimate to Rising Temperatures-But Can They?

For tropical forests to survive anthropogenic global warming, trees will need to avoid rising temperatures through range shifts and "species migrations" or tolerate the newly emerging conditions through adaptation and/or acclimation. In this literature review, we synthesize the available knowledge to show that although many tropical tree species are shifting their distributions to higher, cooler elevations, the rates of these migrations are too slow to offset ongoing changes in temperatures, especially in lowland tropical rainforests where thermal gradients are shallow or nonexistent. We also show that the rapidity and severity of global warming make it unlikely that tropical tree species can adapt (with some possible exceptions). We argue that the best hope for tropical tree species to avoid becoming "committed to extinction" is individual-level acclimation. Although several new methods are being used to test for acclimation, we unfortunately still do not know if tropical tree species can acclimate, how acclimation abilities vary between species, or what factors may prevent or facilitate acclimation. Until all of these questions are answered, our ability to predict the fate of tropical species and tropical forests-and the many services that they provide to humanity-remains critically impaired.

Climate variability of the southern Amazon inferred by a multi-proxy tree-ring approach using Cedrela fissilis Vell

The analysis of climate variability and development of reconstructions based on tree-ring records in tropical forests have been increasing in recent decades. In the Amazon region, ring width and stable isotope long-term chronologies have been used for climatic studies, however little is known about the potential of wood traits such as density and chemical concentrations. In this study, we used well-dated rings of Cedrela fissilis Vell. from the drought-prone southern Amazon basin to assess the potential of using inter-annual variations of annually-resolved ring width, wood density, stable oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O_TR) measured in tree-ring cellulose and concentration of Sulfur (S_TR) and Calcium (Ca_TR) in xylem cells to study climate variability. During wet years, Cedrela fissilis produced wider and denser rings with higher Ca_TR and lower S_TR, as well as depleted δ¹⁸O_TR values. During dry years, a wider range of responses was observed in growth, density and S_TR, while lower Ca_TR and enriched δ¹⁸O_TR values were found. The annual centennial chronologies spanning from 1835 to 2018 showed good calibration skills for reconstructing local precipitation, evapotranspiration (P-PET), Amazon-wide rainfall, as well as climate modes related to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies such as El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO), Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA), and the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) oscillations. Ca_TR explained 42 % of the variance of local precipitation (1975-2018), RW explained 30 % of the P-PET variance (1975-2018), while δ¹⁸O_TR explained 60 % and 57 % of the variance of Amazon rainfall (1960-2018) and El Niño 3.4 (1920-2018), respectively. Our results show that a multi-proxy tropical tree-ring approach can be used for high-reliable reconstructions of climate variability over Amazon basin at inter-annual and multidecadal time scales.

Thermal sensitivity across forest vertical profiles: patterns, mechanisms, and ecological implications

Rising temperatures are influencing forests on many scales, with potentially strong variation vertically across forest strata. Using published research and new analyses, we evaluate how microclimate and leaf temperatures, traits, and gas exchange vary vertically in forests, shaping tree, and ecosystem ecology. In closed-canopy forests, upper canopy leaves are exposed to the highest solar radiation and evaporative demand, which can elevate leaf temperature (T_leaf ), particularly when transpirational cooling is curtailed by limited stomatal conductance. However, foliar traits also vary across height or light gradients, partially mitigating and protecting against the elevation of upper canopy T_leaf . Leaf metabolism generally increases with height across the vertical gradient, yet differences in thermal sensitivity across the gradient appear modest. Scaling from leaves to trees, canopy trees have higher absolute metabolic capacity and growth, yet are more vulnerable to drought and damaging T_leaf than their smaller counterparts, particularly under climate change. By contrast, understory trees experience fewer extreme high T_leaf 's but have fewer cooling mechanisms and thus may be strongly impacted by warming under some conditions, particularly when exposed to a harsher microenvironment through canopy disturbance. As the climate changes, integrating the patterns and mechanisms reviewed here into models will be critical to forecasting forest-climate feedback.

Soil nematode community assembly in a primary tropical lowland rainforest

More than half of the world's tropical lowland rainforests have been lost due to conversion to agricultural land (such as rubber plantations). Thus, ecological restoration in degraded tropical lowland rainforests is crucial. The first step to restoration is restoring soil functioning (i.e., soil fertility, carbon, and nitrogen cycling) to levels similar to those in the primary tropical lowland rainforest. This requires understanding soil nematode community assembly in primary tropical lowland rainforest, which has never been explored in this habitat. In this study, we measured species compositions of plant and soil nematode communities and soil characteristics (pH, total and available nitrogen, phosphorus, and soil water content) in a primary tropical lowland rainforest, which is located on Hainan Island, China. We performed two tests (the null-model test and distance-based Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM) and redundancy analysis-based variance partitioning) to quantify the relative contribution of the deterministic (abiotic filtering and biotic interactions) and stochastic processes (random processes and dispersal limitation) to the soil nematode community. We found that a deterministic process (habitat filtering) determined nematode community assembly in our tropical lowland rainforest. Moreover, soil properties, but not plant diversity, were the key determinants of nematode community assembly. We have, for the first time, managed to identify factors that contribute to the nematode community assembly in the tropical lowland rainforest. This quantified community assembly mechanism can guide future soil functioning recovery of the tropical lowland rainforest.

Assessment of Climate Change and Land Use Effects on Water Lily (Nymphaea L.) Habitat Suitability in South America

Many aquatic species have restricted dispersal capabilities, making them the most vulnerable organisms to climate change and land use change patterns. These factors deplete Nymphaea species’ suitable habitats, threatening their populations and survival. In addition, the species are poorly documented, which may indicate how scarce they are or will become. Members of Nymphaea are ecologically important as well as having cultural and economic value, making them of conservation interest. Therefore, using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach, climatic variables, land use, and presence points were modeled for seven Nymphaea species in South America, using three general circulation models (CCSM4, HADGEM2-AO, and MIROC5) and in two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and two scenarios (2050 and 2070). Our results indicated that mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation of the wettest month (bio13), temperature seasonality (bio15), and land use (dom_lu) were the main influencing factors. For all species, suitable areas were concentrated east of Brazil, and they were variable in northern parts of the continent. Besides, inconsistent expansion and contraction of suitable habitats were noticed among the species. For example, N. amazonum, N. rudgeana, and N. lasiophylla future habitat expansions declined and habitat contraction increased, while for N. ampla and N. jamesoniana, both future habitat expansion and contraction increased, and for N. pulchella and N. rudgeana it varied in the RCPs. Moreover, the largest projected suitable habitats were projected outside protected areas, characterized by high human impacts, despite our analysis indicating no significant change between protected and unprotected areas in suitable habitat change. Finally, understanding how climate change and land use affect species distribution is critical to developing conservation measures for aquatic species.

Ecological and genomic vulnerability to climate change across native populations of Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora)

The assessment of population vulnerability under climate change is crucial for planning conservation as well as for ensuring food security. Coffea canephora is, in its native habitat, an understorey tree that is mainly distributed in the lowland rainforests of tropical Africa. Also known as Robusta, its commercial value constitutes a significant revenue for many human populations in tropical countries. Comparing ecological and genomic vulnerabilities within the species' native range can provide valuable insights about habitat loss and the species' adaptive potential, allowing to identify genotypes that may act as a resource for varietal improvement. By applying species distribution models, we assessed ecological vulnerability as the decrease in climatic suitability under future climatic conditions from 492 occurrences. We then quantified genomic vulnerability (or risk of maladaptation) as the allelic composition change required to keep pace with predicted climate change. Genomic vulnerability was estimated from genomic environmental correlations throughout the native range. Suitable habitat was predicted to diminish to half its size by 2050, with populations near coastlines and around the Congo River being the most vulnerable. Whole-genome sequencing revealed 165 candidate SNPs associated with climatic adaptation in C. canephora, which were located in genes involved in plant response to biotic and abiotic stressors. Genomic vulnerability was higher for populations in West Africa and in the region at the border between DRC and Uganda. Despite an overall low correlation between genomic and ecological vulnerability at broad scale, these two components of vulnerability overlap spatially in ways that may become damaging. Genomic vulnerability was estimated to be 23% higher in populations where habitat will be lost in 2050 compared to regions where habitat will remain suitable. These results highlight how ecological and genomic vulnerabilities are relevant when planning on how to cope with climate change regarding an economically important species.

Estimating the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Garuga forrestii, an Endemic Species in China

Understanding how species have adapted and responded to past climate provides insights into the present geographical distribution and may improve predictions of how biotic communities will respond to future climate change. Therefore, estimating the distribution and potentially suitable habitats is essential for conserving sensitive species such as Garuga forrestii W.W.Sm., a tree species endemic to China. The potential climatic zones of G. forrestii were modelled in MaxEnt software using 24 geographic points and nine environmental variables for the current and future (2050 and 2070) conditions under two climate representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The resulting ecological niche models (ENMs) demonstrated adequate internal assessment metrics, with all AUC and TSS values being >0.79 and a pROC of >1.534. Our results also showed that the distribution of G. forrestii was primarily influenced by temperature seasonality (% contribution = 12%), elevation (% contribution = 27.5%), and precipitation of the wettest month (% contribution = 35.6%). Our findings also indicated that G. forrestii might occupy an area of 309,516.2 km2 in southwestern China. We note that the species has a potential distribution in three provinces, including Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guangxi. A significant decline in species range is observed under the future worst case of high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), with about 19.5% and 20% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. Similarly, higher elevations shift northward to southern parts of Sichuan province in 2050 and 2070. Thus, this study helps highlight the vulnerability of the species, response to future climate and provides an insight to assess habitat suitability for conservation management.

Impact of rising temperatures on the biomass of humid old-growth forests of the world

BACKGROUND

Understanding how warming influence above-ground biomass in the world's forests is necessary for quantifying future global carbon budgets. A climate-driven decrease in future carbon stocks could dangerously strengthen climate change. Empirical methods for studying the temperature response of forests have important limitations, and modelling is needed to provide another perspective. Here we evaluate the impact of rising air temperature on the future above-ground biomass of old-growth forests using a model that explains well the observed current variation in the above-ground biomass over the humid lowland areas of the world based on monthly air temperature.

RESULTS

Applying this model to the monthly air temperature data for 1970-2000 and monthly air temperature projections for 2081-2100, we found that the above-ground biomass of old-growth forests is expected to decrease everywhere in the humid lowland areas except boreal regions. The temperature-driven decrease is estimated at 41% in the tropics and at 29% globally.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that rising temperatures impact the above-ground biomass of old-growth forests dramatically. However, this impact could be mitigated by fertilization effects of increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and nitrogen deposition.

Inconsistency of Global Vegetation Dynamics Driven by Climate Change: Evidences from Spatial Regression

Global greening over the past 30 years since 1980s has been confirmed by numerous studies. However, a single-dimensional indicator and non-spatial modelling approaches might exacerbate uncertainties in our understanding of global change. Thus, comprehensive monitoring for vegetation’s various properties and spatially explicit models are required. In this study, we used the newest enhanced vegetation index (EVI) products of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 to detect the inconsistency trend of annual peak and average global vegetation growth using the Mann–Kendall test method. We explored the climatic factors that affect vegetation growth change from 2001 to 2018 using the spatial lag model (SLM), spatial error model (SEM) and geographically weighted regression model (GWR). The results showed that EVImax and EVImean in global vegetated areas consistently showed linear increasing trends during 2001–2018, with the global averaged trend of 0.0022 yr−1 (p < 0.05) and 0.0030 yr−1 (p < 0.05). Greening mainly occurred in the croplands and forests of China, India, North America and Europe, while browning was almost in the grasslands of Brazil and Africa (18.16% vs. 3.08% and 40.73% vs. 2.45%). In addition, 32.47% of the global vegetated area experienced inconsistent trends in EVImax and EVImean. Overall, precipitation and mean temperature had positive impacts on vegetation variation, while potential evapotranspiration and vapour pressure had negative impacts. The GWR revealed that the responses of EVI to climate change were inconsistent in an arid or humid area, in cropland or grassland. Climate change could affect vegetation characteristics by changing plant phenology, consequently rendering the inconsistency between peak and mean greening. In addition, anthropogenic activities, including land cover change and land use management, also could lead to the differences between annual peak and mean vegetation variations.

A meta-analysis of the ecological and economic outcomes of mangrove restoration

Mangrove restoration has become a popular strategy to ensure the critical functions and economic benefits of this ecosystem. This study conducts a meta-analysis of the peer-reviewed literature on the outcomes of mangrove restoration. On aggregate, restored mangroves provide higher ecosystem functions than unvegetated tidal flats but lower than natural mangrove stands (respectively RR' = 0.43, 95%CIs = 0.23 to 0.63; RR' = -0.21, 95%CIs = -0.34 to -0.08), while they perform on par with naturally-regenerated mangroves and degraded mangroves. However, restoration outcomes vary widely between functions and comparative bases, and are mediated by factors such as restoration age, species, and restoration method. Furthermore, mangrove restoration offers positive benefit-cost ratios ranging from 10.50 to 6.83 under variable discount rates (-2% to 8%), suggesting that mangrove restoration is a cost-effective form of ecosystem management. Overall, the results suggest that mangrove restoration has substantial potential to contribute to multiple policy objectives related to biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation and sustainable development.

Accurate Simulation of Both Sensitivity and Variability for Amazonian Photosynthesis: Is It Too Much to Ask?

Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC GPP. Models with stronger seasonal swings in GPP have stronger responses to rain, light, and temperature than does EC GPP. The model to data comparison illustrates a trade-off inherent to deterministic models between accurate simulation of a mean (average) and accurate responsiveness to drivers. The trade-off exists because all deterministic models simplify processes and lack at least some consequential driver or interaction. If a model's sensitivities to included drivers and their interactions are accurate, then deterministically predicted outcomes have less variability than is realistic. If a GPP model has stronger responses to climate drivers than found in data, model predictions may match the observed variance and seasonal pattern but are likely to overpredict GPP response to climate change. High or realistic variability of model estimates relative to reference data indicate that the model is hypersensitive to one or more drivers.

Feeding ecology and diet of the southern geladas (Theropithecus gelada obscurus) in human-modified landscape, Wollo, Ethiopia

Studying the dietary flexibility of primates that live in human-modified environments is crucial for understanding their ecological adaptations as well as developing management and conservation plans. Southern gelada (Theropithecus gelada obscurus) is an endemic little-known subspecies of gelada that inhabits human-modified landscapes in the northern central highlands of Ethiopia. During an 18-month period, we conducted this intensive study in an unprotected area of a human-modified landscape at Kosheme in Wollo to investigate the feeding ecology of southern geladas and their dietary responses to seasonal variations. We quantified the monthly and seasonal diet data from a band of southern geladas using instantaneous scan sampling method at 15-min intervals, and green grass phenology and availability using visual inspection from the randomly selected permanent plots. The overall average diet of southern geladas at Kosheme constituted grass blades 55.4%, grass undergrounds 13.2%, grass bulbs 5.6%, grass seeds 5.4%, herb leaves 4.0, fruits 7.3%, and cereal crops 5.6%. Grass blade consumption increased with increasing green grass availability, while underground food consumption increased with decreasing green grass availability, and vice versa. Southern geladas spent significantly more time feeding on the grass blades and herb leaves and significantly less time on bulbs during the wet season than the dry season. Underground grass items (rhizomes and corms) were not consumed during the wet season, but made up 22.3% of the dry season diet. Thus, although grass blades are staple diet items for geladas, underground diet items are important "fallback foods" at Kosheme. Our result shows insights into the dietary flexibility southern geladas adopt to cope with human-modified landscapes of the north-central Ethiopian Highlands. Thus, the study contributes to a better understanding of how changing environments shape primate ecology and evolution.

Positive genetic covariance and limited thermal tolerance constrain tropical insect responses to global warming

Tropical ectotherms are particularly vulnerable to global warming because their physiologies are assumed to be adapted to narrow temperature ranges. This study explores three mechanisms potentially constraining thermal adaptation to global warming in tropical insects: (a) Trade-offs in genotypic performance at different temperatures (the jack-of-all-trades hypothesis), (b) positive genetic covariance in performance, with some genotypes performing better than others at viable temperatures (the 'winner' and 'loser' genotypes hypothesis), or (c) limited genetic variation as the potential result of relaxed selection and the loss of genes associated with responses to extreme temperatures (the gene decay hypothesis). We estimated changes in growth and survival rates at multiple temperatures for three tropical rain forest insect herbivores (Cephaloleia rolled-leaf beetles, Chrysomelidae). We reared 2,746 individuals in a full sibling experimental design, at temperatures known to be experienced by this genus of beetles in nature (i.e. 10-35°C). Significant genetic covariance was positive for 16 traits, supporting the 'winner' and 'loser' genotypes hypothesis. Only two traits displayed negative cross-temperature performance correlations. We detected a substantial contribution of genetic variance in traits associated with size and mass (0%-44%), but low heritability in plastic traits such as development time (0%-6%) or survival (0%-4%). Lowland insect populations will most likely decline if current temperatures increase between 2 and 5°C. It is concerning that local adaption is already lagging behind current temperatures. The consequences of maintaining the current global warming trajectory would be devastating for tropical insects. However, if humans can limit or slow warming, many tropical ectotherms might persist in their current locations and potentially adapt to warmer temperatures.

Photosynthetic plasticity of a tropical tree species, Tabebuia rosea, in response to elevated temperature and [CO2 ]

Atmospheric and climate change will expose tropical forests to conditions they have not experienced in millions of years. To better understand the consequences of this change, we studied photosynthetic acclimation of the neotropical tree species Tabebuia rosea to combined 4°C warming and twice-ambient (800 ppm) CO₂ . We measured temperature responses of the maximum rates of ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxylation (V_CMax ), photosynthetic electron transport (J_Max ), net photosynthesis (P_Net ), and stomatal conductance (g_s ), and fitted the data using a probabilistic Bayesian approach. To evaluate short-term acclimation plants were then switched between treatment and control conditions and re-measured after 1-2 weeks. Consistent with acclimation, the optimum temperatures (T_Opt ) for V_CMax , J_Max and P_Net were 1-5°C higher in treatment than in control plants, while photosynthetic capacity (V_CMax , J_Max , and P_Net at T_Opt ) was 8-25% lower. Likewise, moving control plants to treatment conditions moderately increased temperature optima and decreased photosynthetic capacity. Stomatal density and sensitivity to leaf-to-air vapour pressure deficit were not affected by growth conditions, and treatment plants did not exhibit stronger stomatal limitations. Collectively, these results illustrate the strong photosynthetic plasticity of this tropical tree species as even fully developed leaves of saplings transferred to extreme conditions partially acclimated.

Getting Humans Off Monkeys' Backs: Using Primate Acclimation as a Guide for Habitat Management Efforts

Wild primates face grave conservation challenges, with habitat loss and climate change projected to cause mass extinctions in the coming decades. As large-bodied Neotropical primates, mantled howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata) are predicted to fare poorly under climate change, yet are also known for their resilience in a variety of environments, including highly disturbed habitats. We utilized ecophysiology research on this species to determine the morphological, physiological, and behavioral mechanisms howlers employ to overcome ecological challenges. Our data show that howlers at La Pacifica, Costa Rica are capable of modifying body size. Howlers displayed reduced mass in warmer, drier habitats, seasonal weight changes, frequent within-lifetime weight fluctuations, and gradual increases in body mass over the past four decades. These within-lifetime changes indicate a capacity to modify morphology in a way that can impact animals' energetics and thermodynamics. Howlers are also able to consume foods with a wide variety of food material properties by altering oral processing during feeding. While this capability suggests some capacity to cope with the phenological shifts expected from climate change and increased habitat fragmentation, data on rates of dental microwear warn that these acclimations may also cost dental longevity. Lastly, we found that howlers are able to acclimate to changing thermal pressures. On shorter-term daily scales, howlers use behavioral mechanisms to thermoregulate, including timing activities to avoid heat stress and utilizing cool microhabitats. At the seasonal scale, animals employ hormonal pathways to influence heat production. These lines of evidence cumulatively indicate that howlers possess morphological, physiological, and behavioral mechanisms to acclimate to environmental challenges. As such, howlers' plasticity may facilitate their resilience to climate change and habitat loss. While habitat loss in the tropics is unlikely to abate, our results point to a potential benefit of active management and selective cultivation to yield large, interconnected forest fragments with targeted phenology that provides both a complex physical structure and a diversity of food sources. These steps could assist howlers in using their natural acclimation potential to survive future conservation threats.

Trends in vegetation productivity related to climate change in China's Pearl River Delta

Climate change will be a powerful stressor on ecosystems and biodiversity in the second half of the 21^st century. In this study, we used the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to examine a 34-year trend along with the response of vegetation to climate indicators surrounding the world’s largest megacity: the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China. An overall increasing trend is observed in vegetation productivity metrics over the study period 1982 to 2015. Increase in winter productivity in both natural ecosystems and croplands is more related to increasing temperatures (r = 0.5–0.78), than to changes in rainfall. For growing season productivity, negative correlations with temperature were observed in cropland regions, and some forests in the northern part of PRD region, suggesting high-temperature stress on crop production and forest vegetation. However, increased winter and spring temperatures provide higher opportunities for cropping in winter. During the decade 1995–2004, vegetation productivity metrics showed a reversal in the upward trend. The geographical and biological complexity of the region under significant climatic and development impacts suggests causative factors would be synergistic. These include our observed decrease in sunshine hours, increasing cloud cover associated with atmospheric aerosols from industrial and urban development, direct pollution effects on plant growth, and exceedance of high temperature growth thresholds.

Trees as net sinks for methane (CH4 ) and nitrous oxide (N2 O) in the lowland tropical rain forest on volcanic Réunion Island

Trees are known to emit methane (CH₄ ) and nitrous oxide (N₂ O), with tropical wetland trees being considerable CH₄ sources. Little is known about CH₄ and especially N₂ O exchange of trees growing in tropical rain forests under nonflooded conditions. We determined CH₄ and N₂ O exchange of stems of six dominant tree species, cryptogamic stem covers, soils and volcanic surfaces at the start of the rainy season in a 400-yr-old tropical lowland rain forest situated on a basaltic lava flow (Réunion Island). We aimed to understand the unknown role in greenhouse gas fluxes of these atypical tropical rain forests on basaltic lava flows. The stems studied were net sinks for atmospheric CH₄ and N₂ O, as were cryptogams, which seemed to be co-responsible for the stem uptake. In contrast with more commonly studied rain forests, the soil and previously unexplored volcanic surfaces consumed CH₄ . Their N₂ O fluxes were negligible. Greenhouse gas uptake potential by trees and cryptogams constitutes a novel and unique finding, thus showing that plants can serve not only as emitters, but also as consumers of CH₄ and N₂ O. The volcanic tropical lowland rain forest appears to be an important CH₄ sink, as well as a possible N₂ O sink.

Climate-Driven Variability and Trends in Plant Productivity Over Recent Decades Based on Three Global Products

Variability in climate exerts a strong influence on vegetation productivity (gross primary productivity; GPP), and therefore has a large impact on the land carbon sink. However, no direct observations of global GPP exist, and estimates rely on models that are constrained by observations at various spatial and temporal scales. Here, we assess the consistency in GPP from global products which extend for more than three decades; two observation-based approaches, the upscaling of FLUXNET site observations (FLUXCOM) and a remote sensing derived light use efficiency model (RS-LUE), and from a suite of terrestrial biosphere models (TRENDYv6). At local scales, we find high correlations in annual GPP among the products, with exceptions in tropical and high northern latitudes. On longer time scales, the products agree on the direction of trends over 58% of the land, with large increases across northern latitudes driven by warming trends. Further, tropical regions exhibit the largest interannual variability in GPP, with both rainforests and savannas contributing substantially. Variability in savanna GPP is likely predominantly driven by water availability, although temperature could play a role via soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks. There is, however, no consensus on the magnitude and driver of variability of tropical forests, which suggest uncertainties in process representations and underlying observations remain. These results emphasize the need for more direct long-term observations of GPP along with an extension of in situ networks in underrepresented regions (e.g., tropical forests). Such capabilities would support efforts to better validate relevant processes in models, to more accurately estimate GPP.

Double trouble: the implications of climate change for biological invasions

The implications of climate change for biological invasions are multifaceted and vary along the invasion process. Changes in vectors and pathways are likely to manifest in changes in transport routes and destinations, together with altered transit times and traffic volume. Ultimately, changes in the nature of why, how, and where biota are transported and introduced will pose biosecurity challenges. These challenges will require increased human and institutional capacity, as well as proactive responses such as improved early detection, adaptation of present protocols and innovative legal instruments. Invasion success and spread are expected to be moderated by the physiological response of alien and native biota to environmental changes and the ensuing changes in biotic interactions. These in turn will likely affect management actions aimed at eradicating, containing, and mitigating invasions, necessitating an adaptive approach to management that is sensitive to potentially unanticipated outcomes.

Climatic breadth of calling behaviour in two widespread Neotropical frogs: Insights from humidity extremes

Climate change is severely altering precipitation regimes at local and global scales, yet the capacity of species to cope with these changes has been insufficiently examined. Amphibians are globally endangered and particularly sensitive to moisture conditions. For mating, most amphibian species rely on calling behaviour, which is a key weather-dependent trait. Using passive acoustics, we monitored the calling behaviour of two widespread Neotropical frogs in 12 populations located at the humidity extremes but thermal mean of the species distribution. Based on 2,554 hr of recordings over a breeding season, we found that both the aquatic species Pseudis paradoxa and the arboreal species Boana raniceps exhibited calling behaviour at a wide range of relative humidity. Calling humidity was significantly lower in conspecific populations subjected to drier conditions, while calling temperature did not differ between populations or species. Overall, no variation in climatic breadth was observed between large and small choruses, and calling behaviour was scarcely detected during the driest, hottest and coldest potential periods of breeding. Our results showed that calling humidity of the studied species varies according to the precipitation regime, suggesting that widespread Neotropical anurans may have the capacity to exhibit sexual displays in different climatic environments. Regardless of the underlying mechanism (plasticity or local adaptation), which should be determined by common garden experiments, a wide and population-specific climatic breadth of calling behaviour may assist species to deal with changing humidity conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study to explore the response capacity of anurans to perform calling behaviour under contrasting precipitation regimes.

Tropical understory herbaceous community responds more strongly to hurricane disturbance than to experimental warming

The effects of climate change on tropical forests may have global consequences due to the forests' high biodiversity and major role in the global carbon cycle. In this study, we document the effects of experimental warming on the abundance and composition of a tropical forest floor herbaceous plant community in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. This study was conducted within Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) plots, which use infrared heaters under free-air, open-field conditions, to warm understory vegetation and soils + 4°C above nearby control plots. Hurricanes Irma and María damaged the heating infrastructure in the second year of warming, therefore, the study included one pretreatment year, one year of warming, and one year of hurricane response with no warming. We measured percent leaf cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, and species richness and diversity within three warmed and three control plots. Results showed that one year of experimental warming did not significantly affect the cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, species richness, or species diversity. In contrast, herbaceous cover increased from 20% to 70%, bare ground decreased from 70% to 6%, and species composition shifted pre to posthurricane. The negligible effects of warming may have been due to the short duration of the warming treatment or an understory that is somewhat resistant to higher temperatures. Our results suggest that climate extremes that are predicted to increase with climate change, such as hurricanes and droughts, may cause more abrupt changes in tropical forest understories than longer-term sustained warming.

Willingness to Pay for Urban Heat Island Mitigation: A Case Study of Singapore

In many countries, urban heat island (UHI) effects come along with urbanization in metropolitan areas. They have relevant adverse effects on the health and wellbeing of citizens. Singapore is strongly affected by UHI. In this study, we assess Singaporeans’ willingness to pay (WTP) for UHI mitigation by implementing a contingent valuation analysis. Specifically, we employ a double-bounded dichotomous survey design on a representative sample of 1822 online respondents. We find that Singaporeans are willing to sacrifice on average 0.43% of their annual income to mitigate UHI. The total WTP for mitigation strategies among Singapore citizens and permanent residents is estimated at SGD$783.08 million per year, the equivalent of USD$563.80 per year. Our findings suggest that there is a positive and significant relationship between the size of UHI effects and the citizens’ WTP. People living in the region with the highest intensity of UHI are willing to pay 3.09 times more than those living in the region with the lowest UHI intensity. Furthermore, demographic and socio-economic characteristics are significant determinants of Singaporeans’ WTP. The WTP increases with income and education but decreases with age. Students, men, and people with children are willing to pay more. Additional analyses show that the level of UHI awareness, positive attitudes towards UHI mitigation strategies as well as preferences for outdoor activities are positively correlated with the WTP. Our findings suggest that citizens are aware of the impacts of UHI and support UHI mitigation measures to be financed by their taxes. Policy interventions to promote UHI-related education and disseminating UHI-related information might increase the support of UHI mitigation policies.

Predatory functional responses under increasing temperatures of two life stages of an invasive gecko

The direct effects of temperature increases and differences among life-history might affect the impacts of native and invasive predators on recipient communities. Comparisons of functional responses can improve our understanding of underlying processes involved in altering species interaction strengths and may predict the effect of species invading new communities. Therefore, we investigated the functional responses of the mourning gecko Lepidodactylus lugubris (Duméril & Bibron, 1836) to explore how temperature, body-size and prey density alter gecko predatory impacts in ecosystems. We quantified the functional responses of juvenile and adult geckos in single-predator experiments at 20, 23 and 26 °C. Both displayed saturating Type-II functional responses, but juvenile functional responses and the novel Functional Response Ratio were positively affected by temperature as juvenile attack rates (a) increased as a function of increased temperature. Handling times (h) tended to shorten at higher temperature for both predator stages. We demonstrate that the effects of temperature on functional responses of geckos differ across ontogeny, perhaps reflecting life-history stages prioritising growth and maturation or body maintenance. This indicates that temperature-dependent gecko predatory impacts will be mediated by population demographics. We advocate further comparisons of functional responses to understand the invasiveness and future predatory impacts of geckos, and other invasive species globally, as temperatures change.

Increased Drought Sensitivity Results in a Declining Tree Growth of Pinus latteri in Northeastern Thailand

Climate change may lead to alterations in tree growth and carbon cycling. Interpreting the response of forest growth to climate change requires an understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of seasonal climatic influences on the growth of tree species. However, the effects of climate change on pine forest dynamics in tropical region of Thailand remain poorly understood. This study develops three new tree ring-width chronologies of Pinus latteri (Tenasserim pine) in northern and northeastern Thailand and analyzes their climate-growth relationships and temporal stability. Ring-width chronologies of P. latteri at three sites showed significantly positive correlations with precipitation, relative humidity and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) during the dry season (previous November to current April) and early rainy season (May–June). Conversely, significantly negative correlations were found between ring-width site chronologies and air temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) from April to August. Therefore, our results revealed that radial growth of Tenasserim pines from northern and northeastern Thailand was mainly limited by moisture availability during the dry-to-wet transition season from April to June. Moving correlations revealed that Tenasserim pines in the lowland area of northeastern Thailand became more sensitive to moisture availability in recent 30 years (1985–2017) as compared with early period (1951–1984). Accompanying the shifted growth sensitivity to climate change, growth synchrony among trees was increasing and tree growth rates of Tenasserim pines have been declining during recent decades at two more moisture-limited sites in northeastern Thailand. Recent rapid warming and increasing drought during the transition season (April–June) together intensify climatic constrains on tree growth of Tenasserim pines in the lowland area of northeastern Thailand. Considering continued regional climate change, pine forests in tropical lowland areas may encounter intensified drought stresses, and thus, become more vulnerable to future climate change. Our results serve as an early indicator of potential effects of climate change on tropical pine species and raise concerns about sustainable managements of pine forests under a changing climate.

Temperature dependence of germination and growth in Anthurium (Araceae)

By the year 2100, temperatures are predicted to increase by about 6 °C at higher latitudes and about 3 °C in the tropics. In spite of the smaller increase in the tropics, consequences may be more severe because the climatic niches of tropical species are generally assumed to be rather narrow due to a high degree of climate stability and higher niche specialisation. However, rigorous data to back up this notion are rare. We chose the megadiverse genus Anthurium (Araceae) for study. Considering that the regeneration niche of a species is crucial for overall niche breadth, we focused on the response of germination and early growth through a temperature range of 24 °C of 15 Anthurium species, and compared the thermal niche breadth (TNB) with the temperature conditions in their current range, modelled from occurrence records. Surprisingly, an increase of 3 °C would lead to a larger overlap of TNB of germination and modelled in situ temperature conditions, while the overlap of TNB of growth with in situ conditions under current and future conditions is statistically indistinguishable. We conclude that future temperatures tend to be closer to the thermal optima of most species. Whether this really leads to an increase in performance depends on other abiotic and biotic factors, most prominently potentially changing precipitation patterns.

Loss of dominant caterpillar genera in a protected tropical forest

Reports of biodiversity loss have increasingly focused on declines in abundance and diversity of insects, but it is still unclear if substantive insect diversity losses are occurring in intact low-latitude forests. We collected 22 years of plant-caterpillar-parasitoid data in a protected tropical forest and found reductions in the diversity and density of insects that appear to be partly driven by a changing climate and weather anomalies. Results also point to the potential influence of variables not directly measured in this study, including changes in land-use in nearby areas. We report a decline in parasitism that represents a reduction in an important ecosystem service: enemy control of primary consumers. The consequences of these changes are in many cases irreversible and are likely to be mirrored in nearby forests; overall declines in the region will have negative consequences for surrounding agriculture. The decline of important tropical taxa and associated ecosystem function illuminates the consequences of numerous threats to global insect diversity and provides additional impetus for research on tropical diversity.

Interannual variation of terrestrial carbon cycle: Issues and perspectives

With accumulation of carbon cycle observations and model developments over the past decades, exploring interannual variation (IAV) of terrestrial carbon cycle offers the opportunity to better understand climate-carbon cycle relationships. However, despite growing research interest, uncertainties remain on some fundamental issues, such as the contributions of different regions, constituent fluxes and climatic factors to carbon cycle IAV. Here we overviewed the literature on carbon cycle IAV about current understanding of these issues. Observations and models of the carbon cycle unanimously show the dominance of tropical land ecosystems to the signal of global carbon cycle IAV, where tropical semiarid ecosystems contribute as much as the combination of all other tropical ecosystems. Vegetation photosynthesis contributes more than ecosystem respiration to IAV of the global net land carbon flux, but large uncertainties remain on the contribution of fires and other disturbance fluxes. Climatic variations are the major drivers to the IAV of net land carbon flux. Although debate remains on whether the dominant driver is temperature or moisture variability, their interaction,that is, the dependence of carbon cycle sensitivity to temperature on moisture conditions, is emerging as key regulators of the carbon cycle IAV. On timescales from the interannual to the centennial, global carbon cycle variability will be increasingly contributed by northern land ecosystems and oceans. Therefore, both improving Earth system models (ESMs) with the progressive understanding on the fast processes manifested at interannual timescale and expanding carbon cycle observations at broader spatial and longer temporal scales are critical to better prediction on evolution of the carbon-climate system.

Projected impacts of climate change on functional diversity of frugivorous birds along a tropical elevational gradient

Climate change forces many species to move their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations. Resulting immigration or emigration of species might lead to functional changes, e.g., in the trait distribution and composition of ecological assemblages. Here, we combined approaches from biogeography (species distribution models; SDMs) and community ecology (functional diversity) to investigate potential effects of climate-driven range changes on frugivorous bird assemblages along a 3000 m elevational gradient in the tropical Andes. We used SDMs to model current and projected future occurrence probabilities of frugivorous bird species from the lowlands to the tree line. SDM-derived probabilities of occurrence were combined with traits relevant for seed dispersal of fleshy-fruited plants to calculate functional dispersion (FDis; a measure of functional diversity) for current and future bird assemblages. Comparisons of FDis between current and projected future assemblages showed consistent results across four dispersal scenarios, five climate models and two representative concentration pathways. Projections indicated a decrease of FDis in the lowlands, an increase of FDis at lower mid-elevations and little changes at high elevations. This suggests that functional dispersion responds differently to global warming at different elevational levels, likely modifying avian seed dispersal functions and plant regeneration in forest ecosystems along tropical mountains.

The physiological cold tolerance of warm-climate plants is correlated with their latitudinal range limit

Plants are moving poleward and upward in response to climate warming. However, such movements lag behind the expanding warming front for many reasons, including the impediment of plant movement caused by unusual cold events. In this study, we measured the maximum photochemical efficiency of photosystem II (F_v/F_m) in 101 warm-climate angiosperm species to assess their cold tolerance at the end of a severe chilling period of 49 days in a southern subtropical region (Nanning) in China. We found that 36 of the 101 species suffered from chilling-induced physiological injury, with predawn F_v/F_m values of less than 0.7. There was a significant exponential relationship between the predawn F_v/F_m and northern latitudinal limit of a species; species with a lower latitudinal limit suffered more. Our results suggest that the range limits of warm-climate plants are potentially influenced by their physiological sensitivity to chilling temperatures and that their poleward movement might be impeded by extreme cold events. The quick measurement of F_v/F_m is useful for assessing the cold tolerance of plants, providing valuable information for modelling species range shifts under changing climate conditions and species selection for horticultural management and urban landscape design.

Divergent changes in the elevational gradient of vegetation activities over the last 30 years

The reported progressive change of vegetation activity along elevational gradients has important aesthetic and conservation values. With climate change, cooler locations are suggested to warm faster than warmer ones, raising concerns of a more homogenized landscape along the elevation. Here, we use global satellite data to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of the elevational gradient (EG) in vegetation greenness (NDVI_max3), spring (SOS) and autumn phenology (EOS) during 1982-2015. Although we find clear geographical patterns of the EG in NDVI_max3 and SOS, there are no prevalent trends of vegetation homogenization or phenology synchronization along elevational gradients. Possible mechanisms, including spatially heterogeneous temperature lapse rate changes, different vegetation sensitivities to climate change, and human disturbances, may play diverse roles across different regions. Our finding of mixed EG trends and no general rules controlling EG dynamics poses challenges for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate change on mountainous biological diversity and ecosystem services.

Long-Term Variation in Survival of A Neotropical Freshwater Turtle: Habitat and Climatic Influences

Few long-term demographic studies have been conducted on freshwater turtles of South America, despite the need for this type of inquiry to investigate natural variation and strengthen conservation efforts for these species. In this study, we examined the variation in demography of the Chocoan River Turtle (Rhinoclemmys nasuta) based on a population from an island locality in the Colombian Pacific region between 2005 and 2017. We calculated survival, recapture, and transition probabilities, and the effects of stream substrate and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) on these variables using a multi-state model. We found differences in survival probabilities between ENSO phases, likely as a consequence of an increase in flood events. In addition, we found support for survival being greater in muddy streams than rocky streams, possibly because it is easier to escape or hide in mud substrates. Recapture probabilities varied by life stages; differences in the probability of recapture between size classes were associated with the high fidelity to territories by adults. The present increases in frequency and severity of El Niño and La Niña may exacerbate the consequences of climatic regimes on natural populations of turtles by increasing the mortality caused by drastic phenomena such as floods.

Air temperature optima of vegetation productivity across global biomes

The global distribution of the optimum air temperature for ecosystem-level gross primary productivity ([Formula: see text]) is poorly understood, despite its importance for ecosystem carbon uptake under future warming. We provide empirical evidence for the existence of such an optimum, using measurements of in situ eddy covariance and satellite-derived proxies, and report its global distribution. [Formula: see text] is consistently lower than the physiological optimum temperature of leaf-level photosynthetic capacity, which typically exceeds 30 °C. The global average [Formula: see text] is estimated to be 23 ± 6 °C, with warmer regions having higher [Formula: see text] values than colder regions. In tropical forests in particular, [Formula: see text] is close to growing-season air temperature and is projected to fall below it under all scenarios of future climate, suggesting a limited safe operating space for these ecosystems under future warming.

Temporal changes in arthropod activity in tropical anthropogenic forests

Arthropod communities in the tropics are increasingly impacted by rapid changes in land use. Because species showing distinct seasonal patterns of activity are thought to be at higher risk of climate-related extirpation, global warming is generally considered a lower threat to arthropod biodiversity in the tropics than in temperate regions. To examine changes associated with land use and weather variables in tropical arthropod communities, we deployed Malaise traps at three major anthropogenic forests (secondary reserve forest, oil palm forest, and urban ornamental forest (UOF)) in Peninsular Malaysia and collected arthropods continuously for 12 months. We used metabarcoding protocols to characterize the diversity within weekly samples. We found that changes in the composition of arthropod communities were significantly associated with maximum temperature in all the three forests, but shifts were reversed in the UOF compared with the other forests. This suggests arthropods in forests in Peninsular Malaysia face a double threat: community shifts and biodiversity loss due to exploitation and disturbance of forests which consequently put species at further risk related to global warming. We highlight the positive feedback mechanism of land use and temperature, which pose threats to the arthropod communities and further implicates ecosystem functioning and human well-being. Consequently, conservation and mitigation plans are urgently needed.

Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei

Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios based on 13 global climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. Modelling identified that P. parlatorei is sensitive and restricted to a relatively narrow range of both warm season temperature and precipitation. By the mid-late twenty-first century areas of high suitability for P. parlatorei will not migrate but overall suitability will become substantially reduced across its whole range and surrounding areas. Despite extensive areas in high mountain ranges where the species may encounter thermally optimal conditions to potentially allow upward local migration, these same areas will likely become strongly aridified under future conditions. On the other hand, in lowland locations where rainfall levels will not change substantially (e.g. northern range), excessive warming will likely generate abiotic and biotic restrictions (e.g. competition with lowland species) for this cold-tolerant species. Urgent measures should be developed for the local long-term preservation of the gene pool of the unique conifer that characterizes Yungas forests for reasons of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services.

Climate Sensitivity of Tropical Trees Along an Elevation Gradient in Rwanda

Elevation gradients offer excellent opportunities to explore the climate sensitivity of vegetation. Here, we investigated elevation patterns of structural, chemical, and physiological traits in tropical tree species along a 1700–2700 m elevation gradient in Rwanda, central Africa. Two early-successional (Polyscias fulva, Macaranga kilimandscharica) and two late-successional (Syzygium guineense, Carapa grandiflora) species that are abundant in the area and present along the entire gradient were investigated. We found that elevation patterns in leaf stomatal conductance (gs), transpiration (E), net photosynthesis (An), and water-use efficiency were highly season-dependent. In the wet season, there was no clear variation in gs or An with elevation, while E was lower at cooler high-elevation sites. In the dry season, gs, An, and E were all lower at drier low elevation sites. The leaf-to-air temperature difference was smallest in P. fulva, which also had the highest gs and E. Water-use efficiency (An/E) increased with elevation in the wet season, but not in the dry season. Leaf nutrient ratios indicated that trees at all sites are mostly P limited and the N:P ratio did not decrease with increasing elevation. Our finding of strongly decreased gas exchange at lower sites in the dry season suggests that both transpiration and primary production would decline in a climate with more pronounced dry periods. Furthermore, we showed that N limitation does not increase with elevation in the forests studied, as otherwise most commonly reported for tropical montane forests.

Rapid warming is associated with population decline among terrestrial birds and mammals globally

Animal populations have undergone substantial declines in recent decades. These declines have occurred alongside rapid, human-driven environmental change, including climate warming. An association between population declines and environmental change is well established, yet there has been relatively little analysis of the importance of the rates of climate warming and its interaction with conversion to anthropogenic land use in causing population declines. Here we present a global assessment of the impact of rapid climate warming and anthropogenic land use conversion on 987 populations of 481 species of terrestrial birds and mammals since 1950. We collated spatially referenced population trends of at least 5 years' duration from the Living Planet database and used mixed effects models to assess the association of these trends with observed rates of climate warming, rates of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, and protected area coverage. We found that declines in population abundance for both birds and mammals are greater in areas where mean temperature has increased more rapidly, and that this effect is more pronounced for birds. However, we do not find a strong effect of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, or protected area coverage. Our results identify a link between rapid warming and population declines, thus supporting the notion that rapid climate warming is a global threat to biodiversity.