The household distribution of trachoma in a Tanzanian village: an application of GIS to the study of trachoma

Spatial and network mapping of comorbidity with trachoma and visual-impairing NCDs in a pastoralist community in Kenya: implications for SDGs and UHC

BACKGROUND

We explore the spatial distribution of comorbidity with trachoma and potentially visual-impairing non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and their risk factors among Kenyan pastoralists.

METHODS

Using a cross-sectional study design, we recruited and clinically examined 262 study participants for NCDs (hypertension or diabetes) and trachoma using the World Health Organization grading system. Network models estimated interactions and risks linked with trachoma and NCDs while the Poisson point process determined their spatial distribution.

RESULTS

Of the 262 participants, 140 (53%) had trachoma, with >71% of these cases identified among females and those >60 y of age. A total of 36 trachoma cases co-occurred with hypertension (26%) and diabetes (0.01%). NCDs were frequent among those with recurring trachoma (21%) and trachomatous trichiasis (14.3%). Trachoma and NCDs clustered together in <1 km distances (R=0.18, p=0.02). In network analysis, age was strongly associated with trachoma and NCDs. Trachoma was linked with geographic location while diabetes was linked with water source distances. Education level became the central risk factor.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate a twin trachoma-NCD burden that is higher among elderly pastoralists in southern Kenya. Attenuating adverse population-level visual impairment, including integrating the trachoma SAFE strategy with NCD comprehensive care, amplifies the benefits from economies of scale, accelerating realization of Sustainable Development Goal 3 and universal health coverage in hard-to-reach areas.

Modelling morbidity for neglected tropical diseases: the long and winding road from cumulative exposure to long-term pathology

Reducing the morbidities caused by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is a central aim of ongoing disease control programmes. The broad spectrum of pathogens under the umbrella of NTDs lead to a range of negative health outcomes, from malnutrition and anaemia to organ failure, blindness and carcinogenesis. For some NTDs, the most severe clinical manifestations develop over many years of chronic or repeated infection. For these diseases, the association between infection and risk of long-term pathology is generally complex, and the impact of multiple interacting factors, such as age, co-morbidities and host immune response, is often poorly quantified. Mathematical modelling has been used for many years to gain insights into the complex processes underlying the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases; however, long-term morbidities associated with chronic or cumulative exposure are generally not incorporated into dynamic models for NTDs. Here we consider the complexities and challenges for determining the relationship between cumulative pathogen exposure and morbidity at the individual and population levels, drawing on case studies for trachoma, schistosomiasis and foodborne trematodiasis. We explore potential frameworks for explicitly incorporating long-term morbidity into NTD transmission models, and consider the insights such frameworks may bring in terms of policy-relevant projections for the elimination era. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Time trends and heterogeneity in the disease burden of trachoma, 1990-2019: a global analysis

PURPOSE

To evaluate the epidemiological trends and associated risk factors of disease burden due to trachoma.

METHODS

Data for the country-specific disability-adjusted life year (DALY) number, rate and age-standardised rate of trachoma together with related data of other common eye diseases were acquired from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), Human Development Index (HDI), inequality-adjusted HDI and other related indices were obtained from published data or publicly available databases. Regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the associations between potential risk factors and the age-standardised DALY burden of trachoma.

RESULTS

The global DALY burden due to trachoma decreased by 37% from 1990 to 2019 and decreased by 69.8% after adjusting for age and population growth, and, in available 1990-2019 data, had the greatest reduction in attributable DALYs of all common eye disease, with the others analysed being cataract, glaucoma, refractive disorders and age-related macular degeneration. Women had higher age-standardised DALY burden due to trachoma than men (p<0.001). The African region (p<0.001) had the heaviest burden among global regions. The age-standardised DALY rate was higher in countries with lower income (p<0.001) and lower SDI (p<0.001). Higher disease burden due to trachoma was associated with lower HDI (β=-48.102, 95% CI -86.888 to -9.316, p=0.016), lower SDI (β=-48.063, 95% CI -83.702 to -12.423, p<0.001) and lower expected years of schooling (β=-2.352, 95% CI -3.756 to -0.948, p=0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

The global disease burden due to trachoma decreased from 1990 to 2019 and it had the greatest reduction compared with other common eye diseases. Lower HDI, socioeconomic status and educational level were related to a higher national disease burden of trachoma. Our findings could provide necessary information for trachoma control and prevention.

Trachoma

Trachoma is a neglected tropical disease caused by infection with conjunctival strains of Chlamydia trachomatis. It can result in blindness. Pathophysiologically, trachoma is a disease complex composed of two linked chronic processes: a recurrent, generally subclinical infectious-inflammatory disease that mostly affects children, and a non-communicable, cicatricial and, owing to trichiasis, eventually blinding disease that supervenes in some individuals later in life. At least 150 infection episodes over an individual's lifetime are needed to precipitate trichiasis; thus, opportunity exists for a just global health system to intervene to prevent trachomatous blindness. Trachoma is found at highest prevalence in the poorest communities of low-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa; in June 2021, 1.8 million people worldwide were going blind from the disease. Blindness attributable to trachoma can appear in communities many years after conjunctival C. trachomatis transmission has waned or ceased; therefore, the two linked disease processes require distinct clinical and public health responses. Surgery is offered to individuals with trichiasis and antibiotic mass drug administration and interventions to stimulate facial cleanliness and environmental improvement are designed to reduce infection prevalence and transmission. Together, these interventions comprise the SAFE strategy, which is achieving considerable success. Although much work remains, a continuing public health problem from trachoma in the year 2030 will be difficult for the world to excuse.

Community-level trachoma ecological associations and the use of geospatial analysis methods: A systematic review

Background

Trachoma is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Understanding individual, household, or community-associated factors that may lead to continued transmission or risk of recrudescence in areas where elimination has previously been achieved, is essential in reaching and maintaining trachoma elimination. We aimed to identify climatic, demographic, environmental, infrastructural, and socioeconomic factors associated in the literature with trachoma at community-level and assess the strength of their association with trachoma. Because of the potential power of geospatial analysis to delineate the variables most strongly associated with differences in trachoma prevalence, we then looked in detail at geospatial analysis methods used in previous trachoma studies.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review using five databases: Medline, Embase, Global Health, Dissertations & Theses Global, and Web of Science, including publications from January 1950 to January 2021. The review protocol was prospectively registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020191718).

Results

Of 35 eligible studies, 29 included 59 different trachoma-associated factors, with eight studies also including spatial analysis methods. Six studies included spatial analysis methods only. Higher trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) prevalence was associated with areas that: had lower mean annual precipitation, lower mean annual temperatures, and lower altitudes; were rural, were less accessible, had fewer medical services, had fewer schools; and had lower access to water and sanitation. Higher trachomatous trichiasis (TT) prevalence was associated with higher aridity index and increased distance to stable nightlights. Of the 14 studies that included spatial methods, 11 used exploratory spatial data analysis methods, three used interpolation methods, and seven used spatial modelling methods.

Conclusion

Researchers and decision-makers should consider the inclusion and potential influence of trachoma-associated factors as part of both research activities and programmatic priorities. The use of geospatial methods in trachoma studies remains limited but offers the potential to define disease hotspots and areas of potential recrudescence to inform local, national, and global programmatic needs.

The ambitious target to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem has led to impressive strides in reducing the disease burden worldwide, with the implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO)-endorsed surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness and environmental improvement (SAFE) strategy. However, some areas have struggled to reach the elimination threshold after the prescribed number of antibiotic mass drug administration rounds, and some areas have had evidence of trachoma recrudescence after previously having reached the elimination threshold. This systematic review assessed climatic, demographic, environmental, infrastructural, and socioeconomic factors associated with trachoma to reveal which covariates are associated with ongoing or renewed trachoma transmission. We also explored how geospatial analysis, which could help identify areas with ongoing trachoma transmission or heightened risk of recrudescence, has been used in previous trachoma studies. Thirty-five studies met the inclusion criteria for the review. Results indicated that researchers and decision-makers should consider the inclusion and potential influence of precipitation, temperature, and altitude along with variables related to ruralness, accessibility, access to medical services and schools, and community-level water and sanitation coverage, as part of both research activities and programmatic priorities for trachoma elimination.

Predicting future community-level ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection prevalence using serological, clinical, molecular, and geospatial data

Trachoma is an infectious disease characterized by repeated exposures to Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) that may ultimately lead to blindness. Efficient identification of communities with high infection burden could help target more intensive control efforts. We hypothesized that IgG seroprevalence in combination with geospatial layers, machine learning, and model-based geostatistics would be able to accurately predict future community-level ocular Ct infections detected by PCR. We used measurements from 40 communities in the hyperendemic Amhara region of Ethiopia to assess this hypothesis. Median Ct infection prevalence among children 0–5 years old increased from 6% at enrollment, in the context of recent mass drug administration (MDA), to 29% by month 36, following three years without MDA. At baseline, correlation between seroprevalence and Ct infection was stronger among children 0–5 years old (ρ = 0.77) than children 6–9 years old (ρ = 0.48), and stronger than the correlation between active trachoma and Ct infection (0-5y ρ = 0.56; 6-9y ρ = 0.40). Seroprevalence was the strongest concurrent predictor of infection prevalence at month 36 among children 0–5 years old (cross-validated R2 = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58–0.85), though predictive performance declined substantially with increasing temporal lag between predictor and outcome measurements. Geospatial variables, a spatial Gaussian process, and stacked ensemble machine learning did not meaningfully improve predictions. Serological markers among children 0–5 years old may be an objective tool for identifying communities with high levels of ocular Ct infections, but accurate, future prediction in the context of changing transmission remains an open challenge.

Selecting behaviour change priorities for trachoma 'F' and 'E' interventions: A formative research study in Oromia, Ethiopia

Background

Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness. However, little is known about the behavioural and environmental determinants of transmission of the causative organism, Chlamydia trachomatis. We conducted formative research in a trachoma hyper-endemic area of Ethiopia to explore the behaviours which are likely to contribute to trachoma transmission and map their determinants.

Methodology/Principal findings

Data on water use, hygiene, defecation, and sleeping arrangements were collected from five communities during the dry and rainy seasons in 2016. Data collection involved direct observation in households (n = 20), interviews with caregivers (n = 20) and focus group discussions (n = 11). Although several behaviours that likely contribute to trachoma transmission were identified, no single behaviour stood out as the dominant contributor. Hygiene practices reflected high levels of poverty and water scarcity. Face washing and soap use varied within and between households, and were associated with other factors such as school attendance. Children’s faces were rarely wiped to remove nasal or ocular discharge, which was not perceived to be socially undesirable. Bathing and laundry were performed infrequently due to the amount of time and water required. Open defecation was a normative practice, particularly for young children. Latrines, when present, were poorly constructed, maintained and used. Young children and parents slept closely together and shared bedding that was infrequently washed.

Conclusions/Significance

Existing norms and enabling factors in this context favour the development of interventions to improve facial cleanliness as more feasible than those that reduce unsafe faeces disposal. Interventions to increase the frequency of bathing and laundry may also be infeasible unless water availability within the home is improved.

Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness globally. It is caused by Chlamydia trachomatis, which is believed to spread eye to eye through direct transmission on skin (e.g. after touching ocular and nasal secretions), indirect transmission on fomites (e.g. towels and bedsheets) and via eye-seeking flies (which breed in faeces). Interventions aiming to interrupt transmission of C. trachomatis can therefore be designed to promote behaviours ranging from face washing and handwashing to improving sanitation, waste disposal, laundry practices and sleeping practices. Changing behaviour is challenging and interventions are often ineffective if they fail to change important determinants of behaviour. We conducted formative research to understand trachoma-related behaviour and the determinants of these behaviours in order to inform future intervention design. We found that the hygiene practices we observed reflected high levels of poverty and water scarcity. In this context we found that it would be challenging to shift sub-optimal hygiene practices related to latrine use, bathing and laundry without a substantial and large-scale investment in water and sanitation infrastructure. Given this, it may be more feasible for the Government and supporting organisations to design trachoma prevention interventions which target facial cleanliness and hand hygiene.

A Population-Based Trachoma Prevalence Survey Covering Seven Districts of Sangha and Likouala Departments, Republic of the Congo

PURPOSE

We set out to estimate the prevalence of trachoma and access to water and sanitation in seven suspected-trachoma-endemic districts of northern Congo, surveyed as a single evaluation unit.

METHODS

From a complete list of rural villages in the seven districts, we systematically selected 22 with probability proportional to village size. In selected villages, we included all households where there were fewer than 25 in total, or used compact segment sampling to select a group of approximately 20 households by random draw. In each selected household, all consenting residents aged ≥1 year were examined by Global Trachoma Mapping Project-certified trachoma graders, and data collected on household-level access to water and sanitation.

RESULTS

In November and December 2015, 466 households were visited in 22 villages, and 2081 (88%) of 2377 residents of those households were examined. No examined individual had trichiasis. The age-adjusted prevalence of the active trachoma sign trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1-9-year-olds was 2.5% (95%CI 0.9-4.5%). Only 39% (95%CI 35-44%) of households had access to an improved source of drinking water. Only 10% (95%CI 7-13%) of households had access to an improved sanitation facility.

CONCLUSION

Trachoma is not a public health problem in this part of Congo. Access to water and sanitation is inadequate.

Prevalence of Trachoma in 47 Administrative Districts of Zambia: Results of 32 Population-Based Prevalence Surveys

Purpose: A number of previous administrative-district-level baseline trachoma prevalence estimates in Zambia required verification. We used methodologies and systems for trachoma surveys considered to represent international best practice in order to generate reliable estimates of the prevalence of trachoma.

Methods: Between March 2016 and July 2017, we undertook 32 population-based prevalence surveys covering 47 administrative districts. In each of the 32 evaluation units (EUs), we selected 31 households in each of 24 clusters. In selected households, trained, certified graders examined all residents aged 1 year and above for evidence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) and trichiasis. In eyes that had trichiasis, the presence or absence of trachomatous scarring (TS) was recorded, and the subject was asked about previous trichiasis management recommendations from health workers.

Results: Five EUs (encompassing seven administrative districts) had prevalence estimates of trichiasis+TS unknown to the health system in ≥15-year-olds of ≥0.2%, and require public-health-level implementation of trichiasis surgery services. Eleven EUs (encompassing 16 administrative districts) had TF prevalence estimates in 1–9-year-olds of ≥5%. Intervention with the A, F and E components of the SAFE strategy for trachoma elimination is required for nearly 1.5 million people.

Conclusion: Trachoma is a public health problem in some parts of Zambia. The Ministry of Health will continue to partner with other stakeholders to implement the multi-sectoral SAFE strategy. Consideration should be given to re-surveying other suspected-endemic administrative districts in which surveys using older methodologies returned TF prevalence estimates ≥5%.

Understanding the spatial distribution of trichiasis and its association with trachomatous inflammation-follicular

BACKGROUND

Whilst previous work has identified clustering of the active trachoma sign "trachomatous inflammation-follicular" (TF), there is limited understanding of the spatial structure of trachomatous trichiasis (TT), the rarer, end-stage, blinding form of disease. Here we use community-level TF prevalence, information on access to water and sanitation, and large-scale environmental and socio-economic indicators to model the spatial variation in community-level TT prevalence in Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, DRC, Guinea, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda.

METHODS

We fit binomial mixed models, with community-level random effects, separately for each country. In countries where spatial correlation was detected through a semi-variogram diagnostic check we then fitted a geostatistical model to the TT prevalence data including TF prevalence as an explanatory variable.

RESULTS

The estimated regression relationship between community-level TF and TT was significant in eight countries. We estimate that a 10% increase in community-level TF prevalence leads to an increase in the odds for TT ranging from 20 to 86% when accounting for additional covariates.

CONCLUSION

We find evidence of an association between TF and TT in some parts of Africa. However, our results also suggest the presence of additional, country-specific, spatial risk factors which modulate the variation in TT risk.

A search for trachoma in Timor-Leste: no evidence to justify undertaking population-based prevalence surveys

Purpose

We sought evidence to justify undertaking population-based trachoma surveys in Timor-Leste, believing that in the absence of such evidence, the country could be categorized as not needing interventions to eliminate trachoma.

Methods

We undertook a systematic review of published literature on trachoma in Timor-Leste, with results updated to 28 April 2018. We also undertook a series of clinic- and field-based screening exercises, consisting of: (1) in October 2015, conjunctival examination of all children attending a school in Vila, Atauro Island; (2) from 1 November 2016 to 30 April 2017, examination for trichiasis, by specifically-trained frontline eye workers, of all individuals presenting to the ophthalmic clinics of six referral hospitals and five district eye clinics; and (3) house-to-house case searches in a total of 110 households, drawn from three communities that were reported by investigators from the 2016 Rapid Assessment of Avoidable Blindness (RAAB) to include residents with trachoma.

Results

Three RAABs (2005, 2009–2010, 2016) and two relevant published papers were identified. The 2016 RAAB reported one female subject to have been diagnosed with trachomatous corneal opacity. Re-examination of that individual revealed that she had ankyloblepharon, without evidence of trichiasis or entropion. No children on Atauro Island, no clinic attendees, and no individuals examined in the targeted house-to-house searches had any sign of trachoma.

Conclusion

Trachoma is very unlikely to be a public health problem in Timor-Leste. It would not be appropriate to incur the costs of conducting formal population-based trachoma prevalence surveys here.

Progress Towards Elimination of Trachoma as a Public Health Problem in Eritrea: Results of a Systematic Review and Nine Population-based Prevalence Surveys Conducted in 2014

PURPOSE

To assess Eritrea's progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem, we reviewed and compiled current knowledge on the distribution and burden of trachoma in Eritrea, then undertook further population-based surveys where indicated, with support from the Global Trachoma Mapping Project (GTMP).

METHODS

For the systematic review, undertaken in March 2014, we searched (1) PubMed, using the terms ((blind* or trachoma or trichiasis) AND Eritrea); (2) the online database of rapid assessments of avoidable blindness; (3) our own grey literature collections; and (4) the Global Atlas of Trachoma database. In June and July 2014, we conducted nine population-based prevalence surveys, for each of which 30 villages were systematically selected with probability proportional to population size; in each village, 30 households were systematically selected. All consenting residents of selected households aged ≥1 year were examined by GTMP-certified graders for signs of trachoma. Data on household-level access to water and sanitation were also collected.

RESULTS

One previous rapid assessment of avoidable blindness, three peer-reviewed publications, and two grey literature reports detailing sets of trachoma prevalence surveys conducted in 2006 and 2011, respectively, were located. Post-intervention impact surveys were needed in seven evaluation units (EUs, framed at sub-Zoba-level: population range 40,000-120,000) of Debub and Northern Red Sea, while baseline surveys were needed in two EUs of Anseba. Four of the seven impact survey EUs and both baseline survey EUs returned trachomatous inflammation-follicular prevalences in 1-9-year-olds of ≥5%; six of the seven impact survey EUs and one of the two baseline survey EUs returned trichiasis prevalences in ≥15-year-olds of ≥0.2%. The prevalence of access to water and sanitation varied widely between EUs.

CONCLUSION

Interventions are still required in Eritrea to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem. Data from these surveys will guide the Ministry of Health to undertake programme planning using a sound evidence base.

Prevalence of trachoma in the Republic of Chad: results of 41 population-based surveys

PURPOSE

To estimate the prevalence of trachoma in suspected-endemic areas of Chad, and thereby determine whether trachoma is a public health problem requiring intervention.

METHODS

We divided the suspected-endemic population living in secure districts into 46 evaluation units (EUs), and used the standardized methodologies of the Global Trachoma Mapping Project. A two-stage cluster-sampling procedure was adopted. In each EU, the goal was to examine at least 1019 children aged 1-9 years by recruiting 649 households; all consenting residents aged ≥ 1 year living in those households were examined. Each participant was examined for trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), trachomatous inflammation-intense (TI), and trichiasis.

RESULTS

Two EUs had data that could not be validated, and were excluded from the analysis. GPS data for three other pairs of EUs suggested that EU divisions were inaccurate; data for each pair were combined within the pair. In the 41 resulting EUs, 29,924 households in 967 clusters were visited, and 104,584 people were examined. The age-adjusted EU-level prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds ranged from 0.0% to 23.3%, and the age- and gender-adjusted EU-level prevalence of trichiasis in ≥ 15-year-olds ranged from 0.02% to 1.3%. TF was above the WHO elimination threshold in 16 EUs (39%) and trichiasis was above the WHO elimination threshold in 29 EUs (71%). Women had a higher prevalence of trichiasis than did men in 31 EUs (76%). A higher ratio of trichiasis prevalence in women to trichiasis prevalence in men was associated (p = 0.03) with a higher prevalence of trichiasis at EU level.

CONCLUSION

Public health-level interventions against trachoma are needed in Chad. Over 10,000 people need management of their trichiasis; women account for about two-thirds of this total. The association between a higher ratio of trichiasis prevalence in women to that in men with higher overall trichiasis prevalence needs further investigation.

A Longitudinal Analysis of Chlamydial Infection and Trachomatous Inflammation Following Mass Azithromycin Distribution

BACKGROUND

Mass azithromycin distributions are effective for clearing ocular strains of Chlamydia trachomatis, yet infection frequently returns in areas with hyperendemic trachoma. A better understanding of the factors associated with chlamydial reinfection could be helpful to plan trachoma elimination strategies.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study conducted in a trachoma-hyperendemic region of Ethiopia in 2003. As part of a larger cluster-randomized trial, 21 villages were treated with a single mass azithromycin distribution and all children 5 years and younger were monitored for ocular chlamydia and clinically active trachoma at baseline and at 2 and 6 months following the treatment.

RESULTS

In 20 villages with available data, azithromycin treatment coverage was 88.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 85.7-91.8%). In total, 1005 children tested negative for ocular chlamydia at the 2-month visit, of whom 41 became infected by 6 months (1.0 incident chlamydia infections per 100 person-months, 95%CI 0.7-1.4). The presence of intense trachomatous inflammation (TI) at baseline was associated with incident infection at 6 months (incidence rate ratio 1.91, 95%CI 1.03-3.55). Ocular chlamydia infections clustered more within households than communities: (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.01 for communities and 0.29 for households six months posttreatment). Younger children were more likely to have persistent clinically active trachoma (P = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

More intensive antibiotic distributions may be warranted for younger children, for children with TI, and for households containing children with ocular chlamydia infections.

Spatial clustering of high load ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection in trachoma: a cross-sectional population-based study

Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) is the most common cause of bacterial sexually transmitted infection and infectious cause of blindness (trachoma) worldwide. Understanding the spatial distribution of Ct infection may enable us to identify populations at risk and improve our understanding of Ct transmission. In this study, we sought to investigate the spatial distribution of Ct infection and the clinical features associated with high Ct load in trachoma-endemic communities on the Bijagós Archipelago (Guinea Bissau). We collected 1507 conjunctival samples and corresponding detailed clinical data during a cross-sectional population-based geospatially representative trachoma survey. We used droplet digital PCR to estimate Ct load on conjunctival swabs. Geostatistical tools were used to investigate clustering of ocular Ct infections. Spatial clusters (independent of age and gender) of individuals with high Ct loads were identified using local indicators of spatial association. We did not detect clustering of individuals with low load infections. These data suggest that infections with high bacterial load may be important in Ct transmission. These geospatial tools may be useful in the study of ocular Ct transmission dynamics and as part of trachoma surveillance post-treatment, to identify clusters of infection and thresholds of Ct load that may be important foci of re-emergent infection in communities.

Prevalence of and Risk Factors for Trachoma in Oromia Regional State of Ethiopia: Results of 79 Population-Based Prevalence Surveys Conducted with the Global Trachoma Mapping Project

PURPOSE

To complete the baseline trachoma map in Oromia, Ethiopia, by determining prevalences of trichiasis and trachomatous inflammation - follicular (TF) at evaluation unit (EU) level, covering all districts (woredas) without current prevalence data or active control programs, and to identify factors associated with disease.

METHODS

Using standardized methodologies and training developed for the Global Trachoma Mapping Project, we conducted cross-sectional community-based surveys from December 2012 to July 2014.

RESULTS

Teams visited 46,244 households in 2037 clusters from 252 woredas (79 EUs). A total of 127,357 individuals were examined. The overall age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of trichiasis in adults was 0.82% (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.70-0.94%), with 72 EUs covering 240 woredas having trichiasis prevalences above the elimination threshold of 0.2% in those aged ≥15 years. The overall age-adjusted TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds was 23.4%, with 56 EUs covering 218 woredas shown to need implementation of the A, F and E components of the SAFE strategy (surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness and environmental improvement) for 3 years before impact surveys. Younger age, female sex, increased time to the main source of water for face-washing, household use of open defecation, low mean precipitation, low mean annual temperature, and lower altitude, were independently associated with TF in children. The 232 woredas in 64 EUs in which TF prevalence was ≥5% require implementation of the F and E components of the SAFE strategy.

CONCLUSION

Both active trachoma and trichiasis are highly prevalent in much of Oromia, constituting a significant public health problem for the region.

Multilevel Analysis of Trachomatous Trichiasis and Corneal Opacity in Nigeria: The Role of Environmental and Climatic Risk Factors on the Distribution of Disease

The distribution of trachoma in Nigeria is spatially heterogeneous, with large-scale trends observed across the country and more local variation within areas. Relative contributions of individual and cluster-level risk factors to the geographic distribution of disease remain largely unknown. The primary aim of this analysis is to assess the relationship between climatic factors and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) and/or corneal opacity (CO) due to trachoma in Nigeria, while accounting for the effects of individual risk factors and spatial correlation. In addition, we explore the relative importance of variation in the risk of trichiasis and/or corneal opacity (TT/CO) at different levels. Data from the 2007 National Blindness and Visual Impairment Survey were used for this analysis, which included a nationally representative sample of adults aged 40 years and above. Complete data were available from 304 clusters selected using a multi-stage stratified cluster-random sampling strategy. All participants (13,543 individuals) were interviewed and examined by an ophthalmologist for the presence or absence of TT and CO. In addition to field-collected data, remotely sensed climatic data were extracted for each cluster and used to fit Bayesian hierarchical logistic models to disease outcome. The risk of TT/CO was associated with factors at both the individual and cluster levels, with approximately 14% of the total variation attributed to the cluster level. Beyond established individual risk factors (age, gender and occupation), there was strong evidence that environmental/climatic factors at the cluster-level (lower precipitation, higher land surface temperature, higher mean annual temperature and rural classification) were also associated with a greater risk of TT/CO. This study establishes the importance of large-scale risk factors in the geographical distribution of TT/CO in Nigeria, supporting anecdotal evidence that environmental conditions are associated with increased risk in this context and highlighting their potential use in improving estimates of disease burden at large scales.

Trichiasis (TT) and corneal opacity (CO) are chronic stages of trachoma, which remains an important cause of blindness. This study used multilevel spatial models to investigate risk factors for TT/CO in Nigeria, including data for more than 13,500 adults aged 40 years and above collected in the 2007 National Blindness and Visual Impairment survey. Individual-level risk factors were consistent with those identified in other studies, including a higher risk in females, older individuals and those with lower socioeconomic status. After controlling for these factors, there was evidence that a number of environmental and climatic factors are associated with the distribution of TT/CO in Nigeria. These findings establish for the Nigerian context the importance of risk factors at different scales for the later stages of trachoma, supporting anecdotal evidence that hotter, drier environmental conditions are associated with increased risk.

Effect of water, sanitation, and hygiene on the prevention of trachoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Trachoma is the world's leading cause of infectious blindness. The World Health Organization (WHO) has endorsed the SAFE strategy in order to eliminate blindness due to trachoma by 2020 through "surgery," "antibiotics," "facial cleanliness," and "environmental improvement." While the S and A components have been widely implemented, evidence and specific targets are lacking for the F and E components, of which water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) are critical elements. Data on the impact of WASH on trachoma are needed to support policy and program recommendations. Our objective was to systematically review the literature and conduct meta-analyses where possible to report the effects of WASH conditions on trachoma and identify research gaps.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, ISI Web of Knowledge, MedCarib, Lilacs, REPIDISCA, DESASTRES, and African Index Medicus databases through October 27, 2013 with no restrictions on language or year of publication. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported a measure of the effect of WASH on trachoma, either active disease indicated by observed signs of trachomatous inflammation or Chlamydia trachomatis infection diagnosed using PCR. We identified 86 studies that reported a measure of the effect of WASH on trachoma. To evaluate study quality, we developed a set of criteria derived from the GRADE methodology. Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots. If three or more studies reported measures of effect for a comparable WASH exposure and trachoma outcome, we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis. We conducted 15 meta-analyses for specific exposure-outcome pairs. Access to sanitation was associated with lower trachoma as measured by the presence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular or trachomatous inflammation-intense (TF/TI) (odds ratio [OR] 0.85, 95% CI 0.75-0.95) and C. trachomatis infection (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.55-0.78). Having a clean face was significantly associated with reduced odds of TF/TI (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.32-0.52), as were facial cleanliness indicators lack of ocular discharge (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.23-0.61) and lack of nasal discharge (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.52-0.72). Facial cleanliness indicators were also associated with reduced odds of C. trachomatis infection: lack of ocular discharge (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.31-0.49) and lack of nasal discharge (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.37-0.76). Other hygiene factors found to be significantly associated with reduced TF/TI included face washing at least once daily (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.57-0.96), face washing at least twice daily (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.90), soap use (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.59-0.93), towel use (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.53-0.78), and daily bathing practices (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.53-0.99). Living within 1 km of a water source was not found to be significantly associated with TF/TI or C. trachomatis infection, and the use of sanitation facilities was not found to be significantly associated with TF/TI.

CONCLUSIONS

We found strong evidence to support F and E components of the SAFE strategy. Though limitations included moderate to high heterogenity, low study quality, and the lack of standard definitions, these findings support the importance of WASH in trachoma elimination strategies and the need for the development of standardized approaches to measuring WASH in trachoma control programs.

Comparing the performance of cluster random sampling and integrated threshold mapping for targeting trachoma control, using computer simulation

BACKGROUND

Implementation of trachoma control strategies requires reliable district-level estimates of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), generally collected using the recommended gold-standard cluster randomized surveys (CRS). Integrated Threshold Mapping (ITM) has been proposed as an integrated and cost-effective means of rapidly surveying trachoma in order to classify districts according to treatment thresholds. ITM differs from CRS in a number of important ways, including the use of a school-based sampling platform for children aged 1-9 and a different age distribution of participants. This study uses computerised sampling simulations to compare the performance of these survey designs and evaluate the impact of varying key parameters.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Realistic pseudo gold standard data for 100 districts were generated that maintained the relative risk of disease between important sub-groups and incorporated empirical estimates of disease clustering at the household, village and district level. To simulate the different sampling approaches, 20 clusters were selected from each district, with individuals sampled according to the protocol for ITM and CRS. Results showed that ITM generally under-estimated the true prevalence of TF over a range of epidemiological settings and introduced more district misclassification according to treatment thresholds than did CRS. However, the extent of underestimation and resulting misclassification was found to be dependent on three main factors: (i) the district prevalence of TF; (ii) the relative risk of TF between enrolled and non-enrolled children within clusters; and (iii) the enrollment rate in schools.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Although in some contexts the two methodologies may be equivalent, ITM can introduce a bias-dependent shift as prevalence of TF increases, resulting in a greater risk of misclassification around treatment thresholds. In addition to strengthening the evidence base around choice of trachoma survey methodologies, this study illustrates the use of a simulated approach in addressing operational research questions for trachoma but also other NTDs.

The geographical distribution and burden of trachoma in Africa

Background

There remains a lack of epidemiological data on the geographical distribution of trachoma to support global mapping and scale up of interventions for the elimination of trachoma. The Global Atlas of Trachoma (GAT) was launched in 2011 to address these needs and provide standardised, updated and accessible maps. This paper uses data included in the GAT to describe the geographical distribution and burden of trachoma in Africa.

Methods

Data assembly used structured searches of published and unpublished literature to identify cross-sectional epidemiological data on the burden of trachoma since 1980. Survey data were abstracted into a standardised database and mapped using geographical information systems (GIS) software. The characteristics of all surveys were summarized by country according to data source, time period, and survey methodology. Estimates of the current population at risk were calculated for each country and stratified by endemicity class.

Results

At the time of writing, 1342 records are included in the database representing surveys conducted between 1985 and 2012. These data were provided by direct contact with national control programmes and academic researchers (67%), peer-reviewed publications (17%) and unpublished reports or theses (16%). Prevalence data on active trachoma are available in 29 of the 33 countries in Africa classified as endemic for trachoma, and 1095 (20.6%) districts have representative data collected through population-based prevalence surveys. The highest prevalence of active trachoma and trichiasis remains in the Sahel area of West Africa and Savannah areas of East and Central Africa and an estimated 129.4 million people live in areas of Africa confirmed to be trachoma endemic.

Conclusion

The Global Atlas of Trachoma provides the most contemporary and comprehensive summary of the burden of trachoma within Africa. The GAT highlights where future mapping is required and provides an important planning tool for scale-up and surveillance of trachoma control.

In order to target resources and drugs to reach trachoma elimination targets by the year 2020, data on the burden of disease are required. Using prevalence data in African countries derived from the Global Atlas of Trachoma (GAT), the distribution of trachoma continues to be focused in East and West Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and a few endemic countries in Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Currently, 129.4 million people are estimated to live in areas that are confirmed to be trachoma endemic and 98 million are known to require access to the SAFE strategy. The maps and information presented in this work highlight the GAT as important open-access planning and advocacy tool for efforts to finalize trachoma mapping and assist national programmes in planning interventions.

Targeting antibiotics to households for trachoma control

Background

Mass drug administration (MDA) is part of the current trachoma control strategy, but it can be costly and results in many uninfected individuals receiving treatment. Here we explore whether alternative, targeted approaches are effective antibiotic-sparing strategies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analysed data on the prevalence of ocular infection with Chlamydia trachomatis and of active trachoma disease among 4,436 individuals from two communities in The Gambia (West Africa) and two communities in Tanzania (East Africa). An age- and household-structured mathematical model of transmission was fitted to these data using maximum likelihood. The presence of active inflammatory disease as a marker of infection in a household was, in general, significantly more sensitive (between 79% [95%CI: 60%–92%] and 86% [71%–95%] across the four communities) than as a marker of infection in an individual (24% [16%–33%]–66% [56%–76%]). Model simulations, under the best fit models for each community, showed that targeting treatment to households has the potential to be as effective as and significantly more cost-effective than mass treatment when antibiotics are not donated. The cost (2007US$) per incident infection averted ranged from 1.5 to 3.1 for MDA, from 1.0 to 1.7 for household-targeted treatment assuming equivalent coverage, and from 0.4 to 1.7 if household visits increased treatment coverage to 100% in selected households. Assuming antibiotics were donated, MDA was predicted to be more cost-effective unless opportunity costs incurred by individuals collecting antibiotics were included or household visits improved treatment uptake. Limiting MDA to children was not as effective in reducing infection as the other aforementioned distribution strategies.

Conclusions/Significance

Our model suggests that targeting antibiotics to households with active trachoma has the potential to be a cost-effective trachoma control measure, but further work is required to assess if costs can be reduced and to what extent the approach can increase the treatment coverage of infected individuals compared to MDA in different settings.

Repeated ocular infection with the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis leads to the development of trachoma, a major cause of infectious blindness worldwide. Mass distribution of antibiotics, a component of the current trachoma control strategy, has had success in reducing infection in some areas, but results in a large number of uninfected people receiving antibiotics. We have previously shown that transmission of the bacteria between people in the same household is very efficient. Here, we investigated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of targeting antibiotics to households with active trachoma (inflammatory disease) compared to mass distribution, using data from four trachoma-endemic populations and a mathematical model of transmission. We found a high correspondence between households with active trachoma and infected households. In all populations the household targeted approach was predicted to be as effective as mass distribution, but it reduced the number of uninfected individuals receiving antibiotics, making the targeted strategy more cost-effective when antibiotics are not donated. Assuming antibiotics are donated, we predicted the targeted strategy to be more cost effective if it increases the proportion of infected individuals receiving treatment. Further work to address the feasibility and the cost variability in implementing the targeted approach in different settings is now required.

Trachoma prevalence and associated risk factors in the gambia and Tanzania: baseline results of a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background

Blinding trachoma, caused by ocular infection with Chlamydia trachomatis, is targeted for global elimination by 2020. Knowledge of risk factors can help target control interventions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

As part of a cluster randomised controlled trial, we assessed the baseline prevalence of, and risk factors for, active trachoma and ocular C. trachomatis infection in randomly selected children aged 0–5 years from 48 Gambian and 36 Tanzanian communities. Both children's eyes were examined according to the World Health Organization (WHO) simplified grading system, and an ocular swab was taken from each child's right eye and processed by Amplicor polymerase chain reaction to test for the presence of C. trachomatis DNA. Prevalence of active trachoma was 6.7% (335/5033) in The Gambia and 32.3% (1008/3122) in Tanzania. The countries' corresponding Amplicor positive prevalences were 0.8% and 21.9%. After adjustment, risk factors for follicular trachoma (TF) in both countries were ocular or nasal discharge, a low level of household head education, and being aged ≥1 year. Additional risk factors in Tanzania were flies on the child's face, being Amplicor positive, and crowding (the number of children per household). The risk factors for being Amplicor positive in Tanzania were similar to those for TF, with the exclusion of flies and crowding. In The Gambia, only ocular discharge was associated with being Amplicor positive.

Conclusions/Significance

These results indicate that although the prevalence of active trachoma and Amplicor positives were very different between the two countries, the risk factors for active trachoma were similar but those for being Amplicor positive were different. The lack of an association between being Amplicor positive and TF in The Gambia highlights the poor correlation between the presence of trachoma clinical signs and evidence of C. trachomatis infection in this setting. Only ocular discharge was associated with evidence of C. trachomatis DNA in The Gambia, suggesting that at this low endemicity, this may be the most important risk factor.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00792922

Trachoma is caused by Chlamydia trachomatis and is the leading infectious cause of blindness. The World Health Organization's (WHO) control strategy includes antibiotic treatment of all community members, facial cleanliness, and environmental improvements. By determining how prevalent trachoma is, decisions can be made whether control activities need to be put in place. Knowing what factors make people more at risk of having trachoma can help target trachoma control efforts to those most at risk. We looked at the prevalence of active trachoma and C. trachomatis infection in the eyes of children aged 0–5 years in The Gambia and Tanzania. We also measured risk factors associated with having active trachoma or infection. The prevalence of both active trachoma and infection was lower in The Gambia (6.7% and 0.8%, respectively) than in Tanzania (32.3% and 21.9%, respectively). Risk factors for active trachoma were similar in the two countries. For infection, the risk factors in Tanzania were similar to those for TF, whereas in The Gambia, only ocular discharge was associated with infection. These results show that although the prevalence of active trachoma and infection is very different between the two countries, the risk factors for active trachoma are similar but those for infection are different.

Mass treatment with azithromycin for trachoma control: participation clusters in households

BACKGROUND

Mass treatment to trachoma endemic communities is a critical part of the World Health Organization SAFE strategy. However, non-participation may not be at random, affecting coverage surveys and effectiveness if infection is differential.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

As part of the Partnership for Rapid Elimination of Trachoma (PRET), 32 communities in Tanzania, and 48 in The Gambia had a detailed census taken followed by mass treatment with azithromycin. The target coverage in each community was >80% of children ages <10 years. Community treatment assistants observed treatment and recorded compliance, thus coverage at the community, household, and individual level could be determined. Within each community, we determined the actual proportions of households where all, some, or none of the children were treated. Assuming the coverage in children <10 years of the community was as observed and non-participation was at random, we did 500 simulations to derive expected proportions of households where all, some, or none of the children were treated. Clustering of household treatment was detected comparing greater-than-expected proportions of households where none or all of children were treated, and the intraclass correlation (ICC) was calculated. Tanzanian and Gambian mass treatment coverages for children <10 years of age ranged from 82-100% and 62-99%, respectively. Clustering of households where all children were treated or no children were treated was greater than expected. Compared to model simulations, all Tanzanian communities and 44 of 48 (91.7%) Gambian communities had significantly higher proportions of households where all children were treated. Furthermore, 30 of 32 (93.8%) Tanzanian communities and 34 of 48 (70.8%) Gambian communities had a significantly elevated proportion of households compared to the expected proportion where no children were treated. The ICC for Tanzania was 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) and for The Gambia was 0.55 (95% CI 0.51-0.59).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

In programs aiming for high coverage, complete compliance or non-compliance with mass treatment clusters within households. Non-compliance cannot be assumed to be at random.

Targeting trachoma control through risk mapping: the example of Southern Sudan

BACKGROUND

Trachoma is a major cause of blindness in Southern Sudan. Its distribution has only been partially established and many communities in need of intervention have therefore not been identified or targeted. The present study aimed to develop a tool to improve targeting of survey and control activities.

METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A national trachoma risk map was developed using Bayesian geostatistics models, incorporating trachoma prevalence data from 112 geo-referenced communities surveyed between 2001 and 2009. Logistic regression models were developed using active trachoma (trachomatous inflammation follicular and/or trachomatous inflammation intense) in 6345 children aged 1-9 years as the outcome, and incorporating fixed effects for age, long-term average rainfall (interpolated from weather station data) and land cover (i.e. vegetation type, derived from satellite remote sensing), as well as geostatistical random effects describing spatial clustering of trachoma. The model predicted the west of the country to be at no or low trachoma risk. Trachoma clusters in the central, northern and eastern areas had a radius of 8 km after accounting for the fixed effects.

CONCLUSION

In Southern Sudan, large-scale spatial variation in the risk of active trachoma infection is associated with aridity. Spatial prediction has identified likely high-risk areas to be prioritized for more data collection, potentially to be followed by intervention.

Spatial analysis of tuberculosis in an urban west African setting: is there evidence of clustering?

OBJECTIVES

To describe the pattern of tuberculosis (TB) occurrence in Greater Banjul, The Gambia with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Spatial Scan Statistics (SaTScan) and to determine whether there is significant TB case clustering.

METHODS

In Greater Banjul, where 80% of all Gambian TB cases arise, all patients with TB registered at chest clinics between March 2007 and February 2008 were asked to participate. Demographic, clinical characteristics and GPS co-ordinates for the residence of each consenting TB case were recorded. A spatial scan statistic was used to identify purely spatial and space-time clusters of tuberculosis among permanent residents.

RESULTS

Of 1145 recruited patients with TB, 84% were permanent residents with 88% living in 37 settlements that had complete maps available down to settlement level. Significant high- and low-rate spatial and space-time clusters were identified in two districts. The most likely cluster of high rate from both the purely spatial analysis and the retrospective space-time analysis were from the same geographical area. A significant secondary cluster was also identified in one of the densely populated areas of the study region.

CONCLUSIONS

There is evidence of significant clustering of TB cases in Greater Banjul, The Gambia. Systematic use of cluster detection techniques for regular TB surveillance in The Gambia may aid effective deployment of resources. However, passive case detection dictates that community-based active case detection and risk factor surveys would help confirm the presence of true clusters and their causes.

Active trachoma among children in Mali: Clustering and environmental risk factors

BACKGROUND

Active trachoma is not uniformly distributed in endemic areas, and local environmental factors influencing its prevalence are not yet adequately understood. Determining whether clustering is a consistent phenomenon may help predict likely modes of transmission and help to determine the appropriate level at which to target control interventions. The aims of this study were, therefore, to disentangle the relative importance of clustering at different levels and to assess the respective role of individual, socio-demographic, and environmental factors on active trachoma prevalence among children in Mali.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We used anonymous data collected during the Mali national trachoma survey (1996-1997) at different levels of the traditional social structure (14,627 children under 10 years of age, 6,251 caretakers, 2,269 households, 203 villages). Besides field-collected data, environmental variables were retrieved later from various databases at the village level. Bayesian hierarchical logistic models were fit to these prevalence and exposure data. Clustering revealed significant results at four hierarchical levels. The higher proportion of the variation in the occurrence of active trachoma was attributable to the village level (36.7%), followed by household (25.3%), and child (24.7%) levels. Beyond some well-established individual risk factors (age between 3 and 5, dirty face, and flies on the face), we showed that caretaker-level (wiping after body washing), household-level (common ownership of radio, and motorbike), and village-level (presence of a women's association, average monthly maximal temperature and sunshine fraction, average annual mean temperature, presence of rainy days) features were associated with reduced active trachoma prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study clearly indicates the importance of directing control efforts both at children with active trachoma as well as those with close contact, and at communities. The results support facial cleanliness and environmental improvements (the SAFE strategy) as population-health initiatives to combat blinding trachoma.

Spatial distribution of diarrhoea and microbial quality of domestic water during an outbreak of diarrhoea in the Tshikuwi community in Venda, South Africa

Total microbial quality assessment and geographical information system were used for evaluating the quality of water and the spatial distribution of diarrhoea cases in Tshikuwi, a rural community in South Africa, during an outbreak of diarrhoea. The water-abstraction points included two groundwater storage tanks, namely Tank 1 and Tank 2 and the Khandanama river. Indicator microbial counts for total coliforms, faecal coliforms, enterococci, and heterotrophic bacteria exceeded the limit for no risk as stipulated by the South African water-quality guidelines for domestic use for Tank 1 and the Khandanama river. Vibrio, Salmonella, and Shigella species were prevalent in the Khandanama river. The spatial distribution of diarrhoea cases showed a hot-spot of diarrhoea cases close to Tank 1 and the Khandanama river. Results of chi-square analysis showed that the proportion of infection from each water source was different or that infection depends on the type of water source (alpha = 0.05). The demonstrated spatial clustering of diarrhoea cases might have been influenced by the poor microbial quality of water used from Tank 1 and the Khandanama river. The results further highlight the urgent need of water-treatment facilities and monitoring of water quality in rural communities of South Africa.

Sustainable control of water-related infectious diseases: a review and proposal for interdisciplinary health-based systems research

OBJECTIVE

Even when initially successful, many interventions aimed at reducing the toll of water-related infectious disease have not been sustainable over longer periods of time. Here we review historical practices in water-related infectious disease research and propose an interdisciplinary public health oriented systems approach to research and intervention design.

DATA SOURCES

On the basis of the literature and the authors' experiences, we summarize contributions from key disciplines and identify common problems and trends. Practices in developing countries, where the disease burden is the most severe, are emphasized.

DATA EXTRACTION

We define waterborne and water-associated vectorborne diseases and identify disciplinary themes and conceptual needs by drawing from ecologic, anthropologic, engineering, political/economic, and public health fields. A case study examines one of the classes of water-related infectious disease.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The limited success in designing sustainable interventions is attributable to factors that include the complexity and interactions among the social, ecologic, engineering, political/economic, and public health domains; incomplete data; a lack of relevant indicators; and most important, an inadequate understanding of the proximal and distal factors that cause water-related infectious disease. Fundamental change is needed for research on water-related infectious diseases, and we advocate a systems approach framework using an ongoing evidence-based health outcomes focus with an extended time horizon. The examples and case study in the review show many opportunities for interdisciplinary collaborations, data fusion techniques, and other advances.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed framework will facilitate research by addressing the complexity and divergent scales of problems and by engaging scientists in the disciplines needed to tackle these difficult problems. Such research can enhance the prevention and control of water-related infectious diseases in a manner that is sustainable and focused on public health outcomes.

Estimating household and community transmission of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis

Introduction

Community-wide administration of antibiotics is one arm of a four-pronged strategy in the global initiative to eliminate blindness due to trachoma. The potential impact of more efficient, targeted treatment of infected households depends on the relative contribution of community and household transmission of infection, which have not previously been estimated.

Methods

A mathematical model of the household transmission of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis was fit to detailed demographic and prevalence data from four endemic populations in The Gambia and Tanzania. Maximum likelihood estimates of the household and community transmission coefficients were obtained.

Results

The estimated household transmission coefficient exceeded both the community transmission coefficient and the rate of clearance of infection by individuals in three of the four populations, allowing persistent transmission of infection within households. In all populations, individuals in larger households contributed more to the incidence of infection than those in smaller households.

Discussion

Transmission of ocular C. trachomatis infection within households is typically very efficient. Failure to treat all infected members of a household during mass administration of antibiotics is likely to result in rapid re-infection of that household, followed by more gradual spread across the community. The feasibility and effectiveness of household targeted strategies should be explored.

Trachoma is a major cause of blindness worldwide and results from ocular infection with the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis. Mass distribution of antibiotics in communities is part of the strategy to eliminate blindness due to trachoma. Targeted treatment of infected households could be more efficient, but the success of such a strategy will depend on the extent of transmission of infection between members of the same household and between members of the community. In this work, we estimated the magnitude of household and community transmission in four populations, two from The Gambia and two from Tanzania. We found that, in general, transmission of the bacteria within households is very efficient. In three of the four populations, persistent infection within households was predicted by the high level of household transmission (a phenomenon observed in longitudinal studies of trachoma). In all of the studied populations, individuals who live in households with more individuals contribute more to the number of new infections in the community than those who live with fewer individuals. Further studies are required to identify and examine household-targeted approaches to treatment.

Nonrandom distribution of vector ticks (Dermacentor variabilis) infected by Francisella tularensis

The island of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, is the site of a sustained outbreak of tularemia due to Francisella tularensis tularensis. Dog ticks, Dermacentor variabilis, appear to be critical in the perpetuation of the agent there. Tularemia has long been characterized as an agent of natural focality, stably persisting in characteristic sites of transmission, but this suggestion has never been rigorously tested. Accordingly, we sought to identify a natural focus of transmission of the agent of tularemia by mapping the distribution of PCR-positive ticks. From 2004 to 2007, questing D. variabilis were collected from 85 individual waypoints along a 1.5 km transect in a field site on Martha's Vineyard. The positions of PCR-positive ticks were then mapped using ArcGIS. Cluster analysis identified an area approximately 290 meters in diameter, 9 waypoints, that was significantly more likely to yield PCR-positive ticks (relative risk 3.3, P = 0.001) than the rest of the field site. Genotyping of F. tularensis using variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) analysis on PCR-positive ticks yielded 13 different haplotypes, the vast majority of which was one dominant haplotype. Positive ticks collected in the cluster were 3.4 times (relative risk = 3.4, P<0.0001) more likely to have an uncommon haplotype than those collected elsewhere from the transect. We conclude that we have identified a microfocus where the agent of tularemia stably perpetuates and that this area is where genetic diversity is generated.

Spatio-temporal clustering of cholera: the impact of flood control in Matlab, Bangladesh, 1983-2003

Introducing flood control to an area of endemic waterborne diseases could have significant impacts on spatio-temporal occurrence of cholera. Using 21-year data from Bangladesh, we conducted cluster analysis to explore changes in spatial and temporal distribution of cholera incidence since the construction of flood control structures. Striking changes in temporal cluster patterns emerged, including a shift from dry-season to rainy-season clusters following flood protection and delayed clustering inside the protected areas. Spatial differences in pre-flood protection and post-protection cholera clusters are weaker. Changes in spatio-temporal cholera clustering, associated with implementation of flood protection strategies, could affect local cholera prevention efforts.

Trachoma surveys 2000-2005: results, recent advances in methodology, and factors affecting the determination of prevalence

With the advent of VISION 2020 and GET 2020 inaugurated by the World Health Organization, it is timely to provide an update of the methodology employed in trachoma surveys, given that a significant number of individuals in many undeveloped and developing countries still suffer from this ophthalmic disease. The advent of Trachoma Rapid Assessment and Asymmetrical Sampling Rapid Trachoma Assessment has enabled faster identification of trachoma-endemic areas, though population-based surveys are still required prior to intervention. Research into factors affecting prevalence determination has shown that mobility, clustering, and seasonality should all be taken into account regarding survey design. In addition, recent advances in laboratory testing have given us new insight into trachoma infection patterns and a better understanding of the disease course. In this review, we examine advances in survey methodology and the results of trachoma surveys since 1999, and other issues relevant to the determination of trachoma prevalence. Based on recent findings, we recommend that pooled nucleic acid amplification testing be used to augment clinical assessment in areas where trachoma prevalence is greater than 20%. Further, we suggest that trachoma follicular and trachoma follicular or trachoma intense, as markers of the disease, be reported separately.

Risk factors for moderate to severe anemia among children in Benin and Mali: insights from a multilevel analysis

BACKGROUND

Anemia currently affects 2 billion people throughout the world. Although the immediate causes of anemia among children are known (including malnutrition and infections), the importance of contextual determinants and their relationships with individual effects have rarely been explored.

OBJECTIVE

To identify anemia risk factors at the individual, household, and community levels among Beninese and Malian children, using simple and multilevel regression methods.

METHODS

An analysis was undertaken of nationally representative data collected in 2001 in Benin (n = 2,284) and Mali (n = 2,826) by the Demographic and Health Surveys. Sixteen potential risk factors for anemia were considered at the individual, household, and community levels. Comparative analyses were carried out using simple and multilevel logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Simple and multilevel logistic regression analyses yielded broadly similar results. Risk factors for moderate to severe anemia included incomplete immunization, stunted growth, recent infection, absence of bednet, low household living standard, rural residency (Mali), low maternal education, and low community development index (Benin). In addition, multilevel analysis indicated a clustering level of anemia in communities (intraclass correlation) of 14% and 19% in Benin and Mali, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for child anemia appeared at all three levels (individual, household and community). Community-level clustering seemed to be low. Therefore, interventions to address anemia need not be village- or region-specific. Identifying a successful and replicable program is now a priority in child survival endeavors. It is likely that such a program would include a focus on improving immunization coverage, increased bednet usage, and reduced protein-energy malnutrition.

Distance to water source and altitude in relation to active trachoma in Rombo district, Tanzania

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the relationship between distance to water source, altitude and active trachoma in children in Rombo district, Tanzania.

METHODS

In each of Rombo's 64 villages, 10 balozis (groups of 8-40 households) were selected at random and all resident children aged 1-9 years were examined for clinical signs of active trachoma. The households of these children and village water sources were mapped using differentially corrected global positioning system data to determine each household's altitude and distance to the nearest water supply.

RESULTS

We examined 12 415 children and diagnosed 1171 cases of active trachoma (weighted prevalence=9.1%, 95% CI: 8.0, 10.2%). Active trachoma prevalence ranged from 0% to 33.7% across villages. Increasing distance to the nearest water source was significantly associated with rising trachoma prevalence (age-adjusted odds ratio for infection (OR) for highest quartile compared to lowest=3.56, 95% CI 2.47, 5.14, P for trend <0.0001). Altitude was significantly inversely associated with trachoma prevalence (age-adjusted OR for highest quartile compared to lowest=0.55, 95% CI 0.41, 0.75, P for trend <0.0001). These associations remained significant after adjustment in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Trachoma is endemic in Rombo district, although the prevalence varies considerably between villages. Spatial mapping is a useful method for analysing risk factors for active trachoma.