Fine-scale determinants of the spatiotemporal distribution of Ixodes scapularis in Quebec (Canada)

Modelling the small spatial scale questing abundance of Hyalomma lusitanicum Koch, 1844 (Acari: Ixodidae), vector of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus

Free-living ticks such as Hyalomma lusitanicum pose a risk to their hosts primarily due to their role as vectors of diseases, with Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) being an emerging disease of particular concern in the Iberian Peninsula. This study aims to understand the environmental determinants as well as the host effects that influence the abundance of H. lusitanicum at a small spatial scale. Understanding these factors is essential in identifying areas with a higher risk of tick abundance and, consequently, a greater likelihood of encountering a tick. We conducted 3,840 drags in 32 sampling points in a continental area of the Iberian Peninsula during the peak activity of H. lusitanicum, in May 2021 (1,800 drags in 15 points) and May 2022 (2,040 drags in 17 points). As potential factors influencing H. lusitanicum abundance, we modelled suitability for red deer and we estimated environmental variables that could influence the existence of optimal microhabitats for H. lusitanicum. We modelled H. lusitanicum abundance, performing generalized linear mixed models with a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution, using the abundance per drag as a response variable. We found that a higher local suitability for red deer is the primary determinant of small-scale abundance of H. lusitanicum in our study area. We found other significant factors that affect the abundance of H. lusitanicum which determine the presence of suitable microhabitats, such as adequate vegetation types (suggested by vegetation height), grasslands and mixed vegetation types, and low terrain permeability. This information will significantly aid in the development of more integrated, environmentally friendly, and effective long-term strategies for tick control and the prevention of tick-borne pathogens in regions with climatic and landscape conditions similar to those of our study site.

Rodent-targeted fluralaner baiting reduces the density of Borrelia burgdorferi-infected questing Ixodes scapularis ticks in a peri-urban setting in southern Canada

Lyme disease (LD) is a threat to public health in southern regions of Canada. In response, we used a One Health approach to design an integrated intervention in a high-incidence LD community in southern Québec aiming to increase preventive behaviours in the population and reduce the density of Borrelia burgdorferi-infected Ixodes scapularis ticks in the environment. The environmental component involved distributing fluralaner baits to rodents around residential properties and public trails from 2019 to 2023. Effectiveness was measured by changes in the density of questing nymphs (DON) and the prevalence of B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs (NIP). Treated areas were compared to areas located between 0 and 250 m from treatment locations and to untreated areas located >250 m away. The DON was reduced by 39 % (95 % confidence interval [95 % CI] = 1 - 62 %) in treated areas when compared to untreated areas in 2021 and 2022. Over this same period, in areas between 0 and 250 m, the DON was lower when closer to bait stations (P = 0.001). The treatment significantly reduced the NIP in treated area in 2020 (Odds ratio [OR] = 0.87 [95 % CI 0.08 - 0.98]), 2021 (OR = 0.85 [95 % CI 0.26 - 0.97], and 2022 (OR = 0.88 [95 % CI 0.12 - 0.98]), and in areas between 0 and 250 m in 2020 (OR = 0.87 [0.08 - 0.98]) and 2021 (OR = 0.84 [95 % CI 0.25 - 0.97]). This study confirms the potential of rodent-targeted fluralaner baiting for reducing the density of infected questing nymphs in peri‑urban environments.

Comparative ecological analysis and predictive modeling of tick-borne pathogens

Tick-borne diseases constitute the predominant vector-borne health threat in North America. Recent observations have noted a significant expansion in the range of the black-legged tick (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae), alongside a rise in the incidence of diseases caused by its transmitted pathogens: Borrelia burgdorferi Johnson (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae), Babesia microti Starcovici (Piroplasmida: Babesiidae), and Anaplasma phagocytophilium Zhu (Rickettsiales: Anaplasmataceae), the causative agents of Lyme disease, babesiosis, and anaplasmosis, respectively. Prior research identified environmental features that influence the ecological dynamics of I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi that can be used to predict the distribution and abundance of these organisms, and thus Lyme disease risk. In contrast, there is a paucity of research into the environmental determinants of B. microti and A. phagocytophilium. Here, we use over a decade of surveillance data to model the impact of environmental features on the infection prevalence of these increasingly common human pathogens in ticks across New York State (NYS). Our findings reveal a consistent northward and westward expansion of B. microti in NYS from 2009 to 2019, while the range of A. phagocytophilum varied at fine spatial scales. We constructed biogeographic models using data from over 650 site-year visits and encompassing more than 250 environmental variables to accurately forecast infection prevalence for each pathogen to a future year that was not included in model training. Several environmental features were identified to have divergent effects on the pathogens, revealing potential ecological differences governing their distribution and abundance. These validated biogeographic models have applicability for disease prevention efforts.

Seasonal activity patterns of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus in the United States

Knowledge of seasonal activity patterns of human-biting life stages of tick species serving as vectors of human disease agents provides basic information on when during the year humans are most at risk for tick bites and tick-borne diseases. Although there is a wealth of published information on seasonal activity patterns of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus in the United States, a critical review of the literature for these important tick vectors is lacking. The aims of this paper were to: (i) review what is known about the seasonal activity patterns of I. scapularis and I. pacificus in different parts of their geographic ranges in the US, (ii) provide a synthesis of the main findings, and (iii) outline key knowledge gaps and methodological pitfalls that limit our understanding of variability in seasonal activity patterns. Based on ticks collected while questing or from wild animals, the seasonal activity patterns were found to be similar for I. pacificus in the Far West and I. scapularis in the Southeast, with synchronous activity of larvae and nymphs, peaking in spring (April to June) in the Far West and from spring to early summer (April to July) in the Southeast, and continuous activity of adults from fall through winter and spring with peak activity from fall through winter (November/December to March). In the colder climates of the Upper Midwest and Northeast, I. scapularis adults have a bimodal seasonal pattern, with activity peaks in fall (October to November) and spring (April to May). The seasonal activity patterns for immatures differ between the Upper Midwest, synchronous for larvae and nymphs with peak activity in spring and summer (May to August), and the Northeast, where the peak activity of nymphs in spring and early summer (May to July) precedes that of larvae in summer (July to September). Seasonality of human tick encounters also is influenced by changes over the year in the level of outdoor activities in tick habitat. Studies on the seasonality of ticks infesting humans have primarily focused on the coastal Northeast and the Pacific Coast states, with fewer studies in the Southeast, inland parts of the Northeast, and the Upper Midwest. Discrepancies between seasonal patterns for peak tick questing activity and peak human infestation appear to occur primarily for the adult stages of I. scapularis and I. pacificus. Study design and data presentation limitations of the published literature are discussed. Scarcity of data for seasonal activity patterns of I. pacificus outside of California and for I. scapularis from parts of the Southeast, Northeast, and Upper Midwest is a key knowledge gap. In addition to informing the public of when during the year the risk for tick bites is greatest, high-quality studies describing current seasonal activity patterns also will generate the data needed for robust model-based projections of future climate-driven change in the seasonal activity patterns and provide the baseline needed to empirically determine in the future if the projections were accurate.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of Ixodes ricinus abundance in northern Spain

Ixodes ricinus is the most medically relevant tick species in Europe because it transmits the pathogens that cause Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Northern Spain represents the southernmost margin of its main European range and has the highest rate of Lyme borreliosis hospitalisations in the country. Currently, the environmental determinants of the spatiotemporal patterns of I. ricinus abundance remain unknown in this region and these may differ from drivers in highly favourable areas for the species in Europe. Therefore, our study aimed to understand the main factors modulating questing I. ricinus population dynamics to map abundance patterns in northern Spain. From 2012 to 2014, monthly/fortnightly samplings were conducted at 13 sites in two regions of northern Spain to estimate spatiotemporal variation in I. ricinus questing abundance. Local abundance of I. ricinus was modelled in relation to variation in local biotic and abiotic environmental conditions by constructing generalised linear mixed models with a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution for overdispersed data. The different developmental stages of I. ricinus were most active at different times of the year. Adults and nymphs showed a peak of abundance in spring, while questing larvae were more frequent in summer. The main determinants affecting the spatiotemporal abundance of the different stages were related to humidity and temperature. For adults and larvae, summer seemed to be the most influential period for their abundance, while for nymphs, winter conditions and those of the preceding months seemed to be determining factors. The highest abundances of nymphs and adults were predicted for the regions of northern Spain with the highest rate of Lyme borreliosis hospitalisations. Our models could be the basis on which to build more accurate predictive models to identify the spatiotemporal windows of greatest potential interaction between animals/humans and I. ricinus that may lead to the transmission of I. ricinus-borne pathogens.

The role of southern red-backed voles, Myodes gapperi, and Peromyscus mice in the enzootic maintenance of Lyme disease spirochetes in North Dakota, USA

Lyme disease has expanded into the Great Plains of the USA. To investigate local enzootic transmission, small mammals were trapped in two forested tracts in northeastern North Dakota during 2012 and 2013. Peromyscus mice and southern red-backed voles, Myodes gapperi, comprised over 90% of all mammals captured. One site was dominated by Peromyscus (79% of 100 mammals captured). At the other site, M. gapperi (59% of 107 mammals captured) was more abundant than Peromyscus (36%). Immature stages of two tick species parasitized small mammals: Dermacentor variabilis and Ixodes scapularis. Larval I. scapularis ectoparasitism was significantly higher on Peromyscus (81% infested; 3.7 larvae per infested mouse) than M. gapperi (47% infested; 2.6 larvae per infested vole) whereas larval and nymphal D. variabilis ectoparasitism were highest on M. gapperi. Over 45% of infested rodents were concurrently infested with both tick species. Testing engorged I. scapularis larvae from Peromyscus (n = 66) and M. gapperi (n = 20) yielded xenopositivity prevalence for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) in these rodents of 6% and 5%, respectively. Progeny of field collected M. gapperi were used to determine host infectivity for a local isolate of B. burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.). Five M. gapperi were injected with spirochetes, infested with pathogen-free I. scapularis larvae on days 10, 20, and 40 after infection, and engorged larvae molted to nymphs. Subsamples of nymphs were tested by PCR for B. burgdorferi s. s. DNA and yielded infection rates of 56% (n = 100 nymphs tested), 75% (n = 8) and 64% (n = 31), respectively. The remaining infected nymphs were fed on BALB/c Mus musculus mice and 7 d later, mice were euthanized, and tissues were cultured for B. burgdorferi s.s. Nymphs successfully transmitted spirochetes to 13 of 18 (72%) mice that were exposed to 1-5 infected ticks. Theoretical reservoir potentials - i.e., ability to generate B. burgdorferi infected nymphs - were compared between Peromyscus and M. gapperi. At one site, Peromyscus accounted for nearly all Borrelia-infected nymphs produced (reservoir potential value of 0.935). At the other site, the reservoir potentials for Peromyscus (0.566) and M. gapperi (0.434) were comparable. The difference was attributed to differences in the relative abundance of voles versus mice between sites and the higher level of ectoparasitism by larval I. scapularis on Peromyscus versus M. gapperi at both sites. The southern red-backed vole, M. gapperi, contributes to the enzootic maintenance of Lyme disease spirochetes in North Dakota and possibly other areas where this rodent species is abundant.

The Spread of Lone Star Ticks (Amblyomma americanum) and Persistence of Blacklegged Ticks (Ixodes scapularis) on a Coastal Island in Massachusetts, USA

In the northeastern USA, the distribution of lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum) has expanded northward in recent decades, overlapping with the range of blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis). Blacklegged ticks carry pathogens for diseases such as Lyme, babesiosis, and anaplasmosis, while bites from lone star ticks cause other diseases and the alpha-gal syndrome allergy. Lone star ticks can become so abundant that they are perceived as more of a public health threat than blacklegged ticks. Using the island of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, as a case study, we analyzed data from a total of 1265 yard surveys from 2011 to 2024 to document lone star tick presence and subsequent expansion from two peripheral areas, Chappaquiddick and Aquinnah, to all six towns. The timing of lone star tick expansion on Martha's Vineyard closely matched an increase in tick submissions to a pathogen testing center. At Chappaquiddick, drag sampling carried out in June 2023 and 2024 showed that both tick species were most common at wooded sites, where blacklegged nymphs were somewhat more abundant than lone star nymphs. However, lone star ticks occurred in a wider range of natural and peridomestic habitats than blacklegged nymphs, making them far more challenging for people to avoid and manage.

Lime for Lyme: Treatment of Leaf Litter with Dolomitic Lime Powder Impairs Activity of Immature Ixodes scapularis Ticks

Background: Tick-borne diseases are an emerging threat to public health throughout the temperate world, leading to a growing field of research aimed at developing and testing intervention strategies for reducing human-tick encounters or prevalence of infection in ticks. Various wide-spectrum chemical acaricides have proven effective for controlling tick populations, but many of these have potential deleterious side-effects on health and the environment. In addition to chemical acaricides, certain compounds such as diatomaceous earth have been shown to have physical acaricidal properties. We hypothesized that dolomitic lime (CaMg(CO3)2, a corrosive, desiccant mineral that is already used extensively in agricultural and forestry contexts to balance the pH of soils, may affect ticks' locomotory activity, habitat position, or survival and that this should manifest as a reduction in the number of questing ticks collected by dragging. Objective: This study aimed to formally assess this hypothesis in a controlled laboratory setting. Methods: We carried out a microcosm experiment, with one control and three treated microcosm trays, each replicating the natural substrate characterizing I. scapularis habitat in northeastern North America. Each tray was infested with 200 living larvae and 50 nymphs, and then treated with 0 (control), 50, 100, or 500 g/m2 of lime powder. Ticks were collected by microdragging 24 and 72 h postliming. Results: Efficacy of liming at reducing the number of collected questing ticks ranged from 87% to 100% for larvae and 0% to 69% for nymphs 24 h postliming and from 91% to 93% for larvae and -47% to 65% for nymphs 72 postliming. Conclusion: This study provides the first experimental evidence of the potential efficacy of liming for impairing activity of questing immature ticks. Given that lime is a low-cost material, that methods for widespread application in deciduous woodlands already exist, and that it has been documented as having a limited negative impact on the environment, further assessment of lime application as a public health risk reduction intervention for tick-borne diseases is warranted.

Phenology and habitat associations of the invasive Asian longhorned tick from Ohio, USA

Geographically expanding and invading ticks are a global concern. The Asian longhorned tick (ALT, Haemaphysalis longicornis) was introduced to the mid-Atlantic US between 2010 and 2017 and recently invaded Ohio, an inland state. To date, ALTs in the US have been associated with livestock exsanguination and transmission of the agent of bovine theileriosis. To inform management, studies describing tick ecology and epidemiology of associated disease agents are critical. In this study, we described phenology, habitat and host associations, and tested for agents of medical and veterinary concern at the site of the first known established ALT population in Ohio, where pesticide treatment was applied in early fall 2021. In spring-fall 2022, we sampled wildlife (small mammals) and collected ticks from forest, edge, and grassland habitats. We also opportunistically sampled harvested white-tailed deer at nearby processing stations and fresh wildlife carcasses found near roads. Field-collected ALTs were tested for five agents using real-time PCR. We found that ALT nymphs emerged in June, followed by adults, and concluded with larvae in the fall. ALTs were detected in all habitats but not in wildlife. We also found a 4.88% (2/41) prevalence of Anaplasma phagocytophilum across ALT adults and nymphs. Host and habitat associations were similar to other studies in the eastern United States, but two potential differences in phenology were identified. Whether ALTs will acquire more endemic disease agents requires further investigations. Our findings provide the first evidence regarding ALT life history from the Midwest region of the United States and can inform exposure risk and guide integrated management.

Climate change and deer in boreal and temperate regions: From physiology to population dynamics and species distributions

Climate change causes far-reaching disruption in nature, where tolerance thresholds already have been exceeded for some plants and animals. In the short term, deer may respond to climate through individual physiological and behavioral responses. Over time, individual responses can aggregate to the population level and ultimately lead to evolutionary adaptations. We systematically reviewed the literature (published 2000-2022) to summarize the effect of temperature, rainfall, snow, combined measures (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation), and extreme events, on deer species inhabiting boreal and temperate forests in terms of their physiology, spatial use, and population dynamics. We targeted deer species that inhabit relevant biomes in North America, Europe, and Asia: moose, roe deer, wapiti, red deer, sika deer, fallow deer, white-tailed deer, mule deer, caribou, and reindeer. Our review (218 papers) shows that many deer populations will likely benefit in part from warmer winters, but hotter and drier summers may exceed their physiological tolerances. We found support for deer expressing both morphological, physiological, and behavioral plasticity in response to climate variability. For example, some deer species can limit the effects of harsh weather conditions by modifying habitat use and daily activity patterns, while the physiological responses of female deer can lead to long-lasting effects on population dynamics. We identified 20 patterns, among which some illustrate antagonistic pathways, suggesting that detrimental effects will cancel out some of the benefits of climate change. Our findings highlight the influence of local variables (e.g., population density and predation) on how deer will respond to climatic conditions. We identified several knowledge gaps, such as studies regarding the potential impact on these animals of extreme weather events, snow type, and wetter autumns. The patterns we have identified in this literature review should help managers understand how populations of deer may be affected by regionally projected futures regarding temperature, rainfall, and snow.

Ixodes scapularis density and Borrelia burgdorferi prevalence along a residential-woodland gradient in a region of emerging Lyme disease risk

The environmental risk of Lyme disease, defined by the density of Ixodes scapularis ticks and their prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi infection, is increasing across the Ottawa, Ontario region, making this a unique location to explore the factors associated with environmental risk along a residential-woodland gradient. In this study, we collected I. scapularis ticks and trapped Peromyscus spp. mice, tested both for tick-borne pathogens, and monitored the intensity of foraging activity by deer in residential, woodland, and residential-woodland interface zones of four neighbourhoods. We constructed mixed-effect models to test for site-specific characteristics associated with densities of questing nymphal and adult ticks and the infection prevalence of nymphal and adult ticks. Compared to residential zones, we found a strong increasing gradient in tick density from interface to woodland zones, with 4 and 15 times as many nymphal ticks, respectively. Infection prevalence of nymphs and adults together was 15 to 24 times greater in non-residential zone habitats. Ecological site characteristics, including soil moisture, leaf litter depth, and understory density, were associated with variations in nymphal density and their infection prevalence. Our results suggest that high environmental risk bordering residential areas poses a concern for human-tick encounters, highlighting the need for targeted disease prevention.

The risk of contact between visitors and Borrelia burgdorferi-infected ticks is associated with fine-scale landscape features in a southeastern Canadian nature park

BACKGROUND

Infectious diseases are emerging across temperate regions of the world, and, for some, links have been made between landscapes and emergence dynamics. For tick-borne diseases, public parks may be important exposure sites for people living in urbanized areas of North America and Europe. In most cases, we know more about the ecological processes that determine the hazard posed by ticks as disease vectors than we do about how human population exposure varies in urban natural parks.

METHODS

In this study, infrared counters were used to monitor visitor use of a public natural park in southern Quebec, Canada. A risk index representing the probability of encounters between humans and infected vectors was constructed. This was done by combining the intensity of visitor trail use and the density of infected nymphs obtained from field surveillance. Patterns of risk were examined using spatial cluster analysis. Digital forest data and park infrastructure data were then integrated using spatially explicit models to test whether encounter risk levels and its components vary with forest fragmentation indicators and proximity to park infrastructure.

RESULTS

Results suggest that, even at a very fine scales, certain landscape features and infrastructure can be predictors of risk levels. Both visitors and Borrelia burgdorferi-infected ticks concentrated in areas where forest cover was dominant, so there was a positive association between forest cover and the risk index. However, there were no associations between indicators of forest fragmentation and risk levels. Some high-risk clusters contributed disproportionately to the risk distribution in the park relative to their size. There were also two high-risk periods, one in early summer coinciding with peak nymphal activity, and one in early fall when park visitation was highest.

CONCLUSIONS

Here, we demonstrate the importance of integrating indicators of human behaviour visitation with tick distribution data to characterize risk patterns for tick-borne diseases in public natural areas. Indeed, understanding the environmental determinants of human-tick interactions will allow organisations to deploy more effective risk reduction interventions targeted at key locations and times, and improve the management of public health risks associated with tick-borne diseases in public spaces.

High-resolution environmental and host-related factors impacting questing Ixodes scapularis at their northern range edge

The geographic range of tick populations has expanded in Canada due to climate warming and the associated poleward range shifts of their vertebrate hosts. Abiotic factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and snow, are known to directly affect tick abundance. Yet, biotic factors, such as the abundance and diversity of mammal hosts, may also alter tick abundance and consequent tick-borne disease risk. Here, we incorporated host surveillance data with high-resolution environmental data to evaluate the combined impact of abiotic and biotic factors on questing Ixodes scapularis abundance in Ontario and Quebec, Canada. High-resolution abiotic factors were derived from remote sensing satellites and meteorological towers, while biotic factors related to mammal hosts were derived from active surveillance data that we collected in the field. Generalized additive models were used to determine the relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors on questing I. scapularis abundance. Combinations of abiotic and biotic factors were identified as important drivers of abundances of questing I. scapularis. Positive and negative linear relationships were found for questing I. scapularis abundance with monthly mean precipitation and accumulated snow, but no effect was found for the relative abundance of white-footed mice. Positive relationships were also identified between questing I. scapularis abundance with monthly mean precipitation and mammal species richness. Therefore, future studies that assess I. scapularis should incorporate host surveillance data with high-resolution environmental factors to determine the key drivers impacting the abundance and geographic spread of tick populations and tick-borne pathogens.

Epidemiology and clinical manifestations of reported Lyme disease cases: Data from the Canadian Lyme disease enhanced surveillance system

Lyme disease cases reported in seven Canadian provinces from 2009 to 2019 through the Lyme Disease Enhanced Surveillance System are described herein by demographic, geography, time and season. The proportion of males was greater than females. Bimodal peaks in incidence were observed in children and older adults (≥60 years of age) for all clinical signs except cardiac manifestations, which were more evenly distributed across age groups. Proportions of disease stages varied between provinces: Atlantic provinces reported mainly early Lyme disease, while Ontario reported equal proportions of early and late-stage Lyme disease. Early Lyme disease cases were mainly reported between May through November, whereas late Lyme disease were reported in December through April. Increased awareness over time may have contributed to a decrease in the proportion of cases reporting late disseminated Lyme disease. These analyses help better describe clinical features of reported Lyme disease cases in Canada.

It's about time: small mammal communities and Lyme disease emergence

Theory predicts that biodiversity changes due to climate warming can mediate the rate of disease emergence. The mechanisms linking biodiversity-disease relationships have been described both theoretically and empirically but remain poorly understood. We investigated the relations between host diversity and abundance and Lyme disease risk in southern Quebec, a region where Lyme disease is rapidly emerging. We found that both the abundance of small mammal hosts and the relative abundance of the tick's natural host, the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus), influenced measures of disease risk in tick vectors (Borrelia burgdorferi infection abundance and prevalence in tick vectors). Our results suggest that the increase in Lyme disease risk is modulated by regional processes involving the abundance and composition of small mammal assemblages. However, the nature and strength of these relationships was dependent both on time and geographic area. The strong effect of P. leucopus abundance on disease risk we report here is of significant concern, as this competent host is predicted to increase in abundance and occurrence in the region, with the northern shift in the range of North American species under climate warming.

Environmental Drivers of Immature Ixodes scapularis in Minnesota's Metro Area

Research on the public health significance of Ixodes scapularis ticks in the Midwest seldom focuses on extreme weather conditions that can modulate their population dynamics and ability to transmit pathogenic organisms. In this study, we assessed whether the distributional abundance of I. scapularis immatures is associated with current and time-lagged climatic determinants either directly or indirectly. We analyzed a 20-year longitudinal small mammal live-trapping dataset within a seven-county metropolitan area in Minnesota (1998-2016) using yearly tick counts at each site to assess whether inter- and intra-annual variation in immature I. scapularis counts is associated with climate and land-use conditions. We found that (1) immature I. scapularis ticks infesting mammals expanded southwesterly over the study period, (2) eastern chipmunks, Tamias striatus, supplied a substantial proportion of nymphal blood meals, (3) a suite of climatological variables are demonstrably associated with I. scapularis presence, and abundance across sites, most notably summer vapor pressure deficit, and (4) immature I. scapularis display an affinity for deciduous forests in metro areas. Our results suggest that climatic and land-type conditions may impact host-seeking I. scapularis ticks through numerous mechanistic avenues. These findings extend our understanding of the abiotic factors supporting I. scapularis populations in metro areas of the upper Midwest with strong implications for discerning future tick-borne pathogen risk.

Panarchy theory for convergence

Coping with surprise and uncertainty resulting from the emergence of undesired and unexpected novelty or the sudden reorganization of systems at multiple spatiotemporal scales requires both a scientific process that can incorporate diverse expertise and viewpoints, and a scientific framework that can account for the structure and dynamics of interacting social-ecological systems (SES) and the inherent uncertainty of what might emerge in the future. We argue that combining a convergence scientific process with a panarchy framework provides a pathway for improving our understanding of, and response to, emergence. Emergent phenomena are often unexpected (e.g., pandemics, regime shifts) and can be highly disruptive, so can pose a significant challenge to the development of sustainable and resilient SES. Convergence science is a new approach promoted by the U.S. National Science Foundation for tackling complex problems confronting humanity through the integration of multiple perspectives, expertise, methods, tools, and analytical approaches. Panarchy theory is a framework useful for studying emergence, because it characterizes complex systems of people and nature as dynamically organized and structured within and across scales of space and time. It accounts for the fundamental tenets of complex systems and explicitly grapples with emergence, including the emergence of novelty, and the emergent property of social-ecological resilience. We provide an overview of panarchy, convergence science, and emergence. We discuss the significant data and methodological challenges of using panarchy in a convergence approach to address emergent phenomena, as well as state-of-the-art methods for overcoming them. We present two examples that would benefit from such an approach: climate change and its impacts on social-ecological systems, and the relationships between infectious disease and social-ecological systems.

An Agenda for Research of Uncovered Epidemiological Patterns of Tick-Borne Pathogens Affecting Human Health

The panorama of ticks and tick-borne pathogens (TBP) is complex due to the many interactions among vertebrates, vectors, and habitats, occurring at different scales. At a broad spatial range, climate and host availability regulate most tick processes, including questing activity, development, and survival. At a local scale, interactions are obscured by a high indeterminacy, making it arduous to record in field surveys. A solid modelling framework could translate the local/regional empirical findings into larger scales, shedding light on the processes governing the circulation of TBP. In this opinion paper, we advocate for a re-formulation of some paradigms in the research of these outstanding cycles of transmission. We propose revisiting concepts that faced criticisms or lacked solid support, together with the development of a conceptual scheme exploring the circulation of TBP under a range of conditions. We encourage (i) an adequate interpretation of the niche concept of both ticks and vertebrate/reservoir hosts interpreting the (a)biotic components that shape the tick's niche, (ii) an assessment of the role played by the communities of wild vertebrates on the circulation of pathogens, and (iii) the development of new approaches, based on state-of-the-art epidemiological concepts, to integrate findings and modelling efforts on TBP over large regions.

Environmental factors driving fine-scale ixodid tick abundance patterns

Tick abundance is an essential demographic parameter to infer tick-borne pathogen transmission risks. Spatiotemporal patterns of tick abundance are heterogeneous, so its determinants at small spatial scales need to be understood to reduce their negative effects on hosts. Current knowledge of these determinants is scarce, especially in Mediterranean environments, limiting the possibilities for designing efficient tick control strategies. With the goal of unravelling tick abundance determinants and informing new tick management strategies, we estimated tick burdens on 1965 wild ungulates in Doñana National Park, Spain, annually between 2010 and 2020. Under the hypothesis of a predominant host influence on tick abundance, we modelled the burdens of Rhipicephalus annulatus, Hyalomma lusitanicum, and Ixodes ricinus with relevant predictors grouped into four factors: i) environment; ii) host population; iii) host individual; and iv) land-use. Generalized linear mixed models with a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution were built. Additionally, we analysed the differential contribution to abundance of each factor by deviance partitioning. We finally estimated the similarity in the environmental space of tick species by analysing their niche overlap with the environmental principal component analysis method. Our work hypothesis was confirmed for R. annulatus and H. lusitanicum, but we found that tick abundance at a fine spatial scale is jointly driven by multiple drivers, including all four factors considered in this study. This result points out that understanding the demography of ticks is a complex multifactorial issue, even at small spatial scales. We found no niche differences between the three tick species at the study spatial scale, thus showing similar host and environmental dependencies. Overall results identify that host aggregation areas displaying environmentally favourable traits for ticks are relevant tick and vector-borne pathogen transmission hotspots. Our findings will facilitate the design of new strategies to reduce the negative effects of tick parasitism.

Fluralaner Baits Reduce the Infestation of Peromyscus spp. Mice (Rodentia: Cricetidae) by Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Larvae and Nymphs in a Natural Environment

The development of interventions that reduce Lyme disease incidence remains a challenge. Reservoir-targeted approaches aiming to reduce tick densities or tick infection prevalence with Borrelia burgdorferi have emerged as promising ways to reduce the density of infected ticks. Acaricides of the isoxazoline family offer high potential for reducing infestation of ticks on small mammals as they have high efficacy at killing feeding ticks for a long period. Fluralaner baits were recently demonstrated as effective, in the laboratory, at killing Ixodes scapularis larvae infesting Peromyscus mice, the main reservoir for B. burgdorferi in northeastern North America. Here, effectiveness of this approach for reducing the infestation of small mammals by immature stages of I. scapularis was tested in a natural environment. Two densities of fluralaner baits (2.1 baits/1,000 m2 and 4.4 baits/1,000 m2) were used during three years in forest plots. The number of I. scapularis larvae and nymphs per mouse from treated and control plots were compared. Fluralaner baiting reduced the number of larvae per mouse by 68% (CI95: 51-79%) at 2.1 baits/1,000 m2 and by 86% (CI95: 77-92%) at 4.4 baits/1,000 m2. The number of nymphs per mouse was reduced by 72% (CI95: 22-90%) at 4.4 baits/1,000 m2 but was not significantly reduced at 2.1 baits/1,000 m2. Reduction of Peromyscus mouse infestation by immature stages of I. scapularis supports the hypothesis that an approach targeting reservoirs of B. burgdorferi with isoxazolines has the potential to reduce tick-borne disease risk by decreasing the density of infected ticks in the environment.

An ecological approach to predict areas with established populations of Ixodes scapularis in Quebec, Canada

Public health management of Lyme disease (LD) is a dynamic challenge in Canada. Climate warming is driving the northward expansion of suitable habitat for the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. Information about tick population establishment is used to inform the risk of LD but is challenged by sampling biases from surveillance data. Misclassifying areas as having no established tick population underestimates the LD risk classification. We used a logistic regression model at the municipal level to predict the probability of I. scapularis population establishment based on passive tick surveillance data during the period of 2010-2017 in southern Quebec. We tested for the effect of abiotic and biotic factors hypothesized to influence tick biology and ecology. Additional variables controlled for sampling biases in the passive surveillance data. In our final selected model, tick population establishment was positively associated with annual cumulative degree-days > 0°C, precipitation and deer density, and negatively associated with coniferous and mixed forest types. Sampling biases from passive tick surveillance were controlled for using municipal population size and public health instructions on tick submissions. The model performed well as indicated by an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92, sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 81%. Our model enables prediction of I. scapularis population establishment in areas which lack data from passive tick surveillance and may improve the sensitivity of LD risk categorization in these areas. A more sensitive system of LD risk classification is important for increasing awareness and use of protective measures employed against ticks, and decreasing the morbidity associated with LD.

Longer study length, standardized sampling techniques, and broader geographic scope leads to higher likelihood of detecting stable abundance patterns in long term black-legged tick studies

Background

Understanding how study design and monitoring strategies shape inference within, and synthesis across, studies is critical across biological disciplines. Many biological and field studies are short term and limited in scope. Monitoring studies are critical for informing public health about potential vectors of concern, such as Ixodes scapularis (black-legged ticks). Black-legged ticks are a taxon of ecological and human health concern due to their status as primary vectors of Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacteria that transmits Lyme disease. However, variation in black-legged tick monitoring, and gaps in data, are currently considered major barriers to understanding population trends and in turn, predicting Lyme disease risk. To understand how variable methodology in black-legged tick studies may influence which population patterns researchers find, we conducted a data synthesis experiment.

Materials and Methods

We searched for publicly available black-legged tick abundance dataset that had at least 9 years of data, using keywords about ticks in internet search engines, literature databases, data repositories and public health websites. Our analysis included 289 datasets from seven surveys from locations in the US, ranging in length from 9 to 24 years. We used a moving window analysis, a non-random resampling approach, to investigate the temporal stability of black-legged tick population trajectories across the US. We then used t-tests to assess differences in stability time across different study parameters.

Results

All of our sampled datasets required 4 or more years to reach stability. We also found several study factors can have an impact on the likelihood of a study reaching stability and of data leading to misleading results if the study does not reach stability. Specifically, datasets collected via dragging reached stability significantly faster than data collected via opportunistic sampling. Datasets that sampled larva reached stability significantly later than those that sampled adults or nymphs. Additionally, datasets collected at the broadest spatial scale (county) reached stability fastest.

Conclusion

We used 289 datasets from seven long term black-legged tick studies to conduct a non-random data resampling experiment, revealing that sampling design does shape inferences in black-legged tick population trajectories and how many years it takes to find stable patterns. Specifically, our results show the importance of study length, sampling technique, life stage, and geographic scope in understanding black-legged tick populations, in the absence of standardized surveillance methods. Current public health efforts based on existing black-legged tick datasets must take monitoring study parameters into account, to better understand if and how to use monitoring data to inform decisioning. We also advocate that potential future forecasting initiatives consider these parameters when projecting future black-legged tick population trends.

Sentinel Surveillance Contributes to Tracking Lyme Disease Spatiotemporal Risk Trends in Southern Quebec, Canada

Lyme disease (LD) is a tick-borne disease which has been emerging in temperate areas in North America, Europe, and Asia. In Quebec, Canada, the number of human LD cases is increasing rapidly and thus surveillance of LD risk is a public health priority. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the ability of active sentinel surveillance to track spatiotemporal trends in LD risk. Using drag flannel data from 2015–2019, we calculated density of nymphal ticks (DON), an index of enzootic hazard, across the study region (southern Quebec). A Poisson regression model was used to explore the association between the enzootic hazard and LD risk (annual number of human cases) at the municipal level. Predictions from models were able to track both spatial and interannual variation in risk. Furthermore, a risk map produced by using model predictions closely matched the official risk map published by provincial public health authorities, which requires the use of complex criteria-based risk assessment. Our study shows that active sentinel surveillance in Quebec provides a sustainable system to follow spatiotemporal trends in LD risk. Such a network can support public health authorities in informing the public about LD risk within their region or municipality and this method could be extended to support Lyme disease risk assessment at the national level in Canada.

Transmission patterns of tick-borne pathogens among birds and rodents in a forested park in southeastern Canada

Ixodes scapularis ticks are expanding their range in parts of northeastern North America, bringing with them pathogens of public health concern. While rodents like the white-footed mouse, Peromyscus leucopus, are considered the primary reservoir of many emerging tick-borne pathogens, the contribution of birds, as alternative hosts and reservoirs, to local transmission cycles has not yet been firmly established. From 2016 to 2018, we collected host-seeking ticks and examined rodent and bird hosts for ticks at 48 sites in a park where blacklegged ticks are established in Quebec, Canada, in order to characterize the distribution of pathogens in ticks and mammalian and avian hosts. We found nearly one third of captured birds (n = 849) and 70% of small mammals (n = 694) were infested with I. scapularis. Five bird and three mammal species transmitted Borrelia burgdorferi to feeding larvae (n larvae tested = 2257) and we estimated that about one fifth of the B. burgdorferi-infected questing nymphs in the park acquired their infection from birds, the remaining being attributable to mice. Ground-foraging bird species were more parasitized than other birds, and species that inhabited open habitat were more frequently infested and were more likely to transmit B. burgdorferi to larval ticks feeding upon them. Female birds were more likely to transmit infection than males, without age differentiation, whereas in mice, adult males were more likely to transmit infection than juveniles and females. We also detected Borrelia miyamotoi in larvae collected from birds, and Anaplasma phagocytophilum from a larva collected from a white-footed mouse. This study highlights the importance of characterising the reservoir potential of alternative reservoir hosts and to quantify their contribution to transmission dynamics in different species assemblages. This information is key to identifying the most effective host-targeted risk mitigation actions.