Genome-wide risk prediction of common diseases across ancestries in one million people

Clinical use of polygenic scores in type 2 diabetes: challenges and possibilities

Resulting from a combination of genetic and environmental factors, type 2 diabetes is highly heterogeneous in manifestation and disease progression, with the only common feature being chronic hyperglycaemia. In spite of vigorous efforts to elucidate the pathogenetic origins and natural course of the disease, there is still a lack of biomarkers and tools for prevention, disease stratification and treatment. Genome-wide association studies have reported over 1200 variants associated with type 2 diabetes, and the decreased cost of generating genetic data has facilitated the development of polygenic scores for estimating an individual's genetic disease risk based on combining effects from most-or all-genetic variants. In this review, we summarise the current knowledge on type 2 diabetes-related polygenic scores in different ancestries and outline their possible clinical role. We explore the potential applicability of type 2 diabetes polygenic scores to quantify genetic liability for prediction, screening and risk stratification. Given that most genetic risk loci are determined from populations of European origin while other ancestries are under-represented, we also discuss the challenges around their global applicability. To date, the potential for clinical utility of polygenic scores for type 2 diabetes is limited, with such scores outperformed by clinical measures. In the future, rather than predicting risk of type 2 diabetes, the value of polygenic scores may be in stratification of the severity of disease (risk for comorbidities) and treatment response, in addition to aiding in dissecting the pathophysiological mechanisms involved.

Investigating the sources of variable impact of pathogenic variants in monogenic metabolic conditions

Over three percent of people carry a dominant pathogenic variant, yet only a fraction of carriers develop disease. Disease phenotypes from carriers of variants in the same gene range from mild to severe. Here, we investigate underlying mechanisms for this heterogeneity: variable variant effect sizes, carrier polygenic backgrounds, and modulation of carrier effect by genetic background (marginal epistasis). We leveraged exomes and clinical phenotypes from the UK Biobank and the Mt. Sinai BioMe Biobank to identify carriers of pathogenic variants affecting cardiometabolic traits. We employed recently developed methods to study these cohorts, observing strong statistical support and clinical translational potential for all three mechanisms of variable carrier penetrance and disease severity. For example, scores from our recent model of variant pathogenicity were tightly correlated with phenotype amongst clinical variant carriers, they predicted effects of variants of unknown significance, and they distinguished gain- from loss-of-function variants. We also found that polygenic scores modify phenotypes amongst pathogenic carriers and that genetic background additionally alters the effects of pathogenic variants through interactions.

Genetic analysis of psychosis Biotypes: shared Ancestry-adjusted polygenic risk and unique genomic associations

The Bipolar-Schizophrenia Network for Intermediate Phenotypes (B-SNIP) created psychosis Biotypes based on neurobiological measurements in a multi-ancestry sample. These Biotypes cut across DSM diagnoses of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, and bipolar disorder with psychosis. Two recently developed post hoc ancestry adjustment methods of Polygenic Risk Scores (PRSs) generate Ancestry-Adjusted PRSs (AAPRSs), which allow for PRS analysis of multi-ancestry samples. Applied to schizophrenia PRS, we found the Khera AAPRS method to show superior portability and comparable prediction accuracy as compared with the Ge method. The three Biotypes of psychosis disorders had similar AAPRSs across ancestries. In genomic analysis of Biotypes, 12 genes, and isoforms showed significant genomic associations with specific Biotypes in a Transcriptome-Wide Association Study (TWAS) of genetically regulated expression (GReX) in the adult brain and fetal brain. TWAS inflation was addressed by the inclusion of genotype principal components in the association analyses. Seven of these 12 genes/isoforms satisfied Mendelian Randomization (MR) criteria for putative causality, including four genes TMEM140, ARTN, C1orf115, CYREN, and three transcripts ENSG00000272941, ENSG00000257176, ENSG00000287733. These genes are enriched in the biological pathways of Rearranged during Transfection (RET) signaling, Neural Cell Adhesion Molecule 1 (NCAM1) interactions, and NCAM signaling for neurite out-growth. The specific associations with Biotypes suggest that pharmacological clinical trials and biological investigations might benefit from analyzing Biotypes separately.

A Breast Cancer Polygenic Risk Score Validation in 15,490 Brazilians Using Exome Sequencing

Background/Objectives: Brazil has a highly admixed population. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have mostly been developed from European population studies, and their application to other populations is challenging. To assess the use of PRS for breast cancer (BC) risk in Brazil, we evaluated four PRSs in the Brazilian population. Methods: We analyzed a Brazilian cohort composed of 6206 women with a history of breast cancer and 8878 unphenotyped adults as controls. Genomic variants were imputed from exomes, and scores were calculated for all samples. Results: After individuals with known pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, PTEN, or TP53 genes, and first-degree relatives of the probands were excluded, 5598 cases and 8767 controls remained. Four PRS models were compared, and PRS3820 achieved the best performance, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.43 per standard deviation increase (p value < 0.001) and an OR of 1.88 (p value < 0.001) for the top decile. PRS3820 also performed well for different ancestry groups: East Asian majority (OR 1.59, p value 0.004), Non-European majority (OR 1.45, p value < 0.001), and European majority (OR 1.43, p value < 0.001). Conclusions: Among the different PRSs, PRS313 and PRS3820 could be validated in our Brazilian cohort, with the latter exhibiting the best performance. While further clinical studies are necessary to guide clinical practice, this work represents an important step toward improving BC precision medicine in Brazil.

Clinical utility and implementation of polygenic risk scores for predicting cardiovascular disease: A clinical consensus statement of the ESC Council on Cardiovascular Genomics, the ESC Cardiovascular Risk Collaboration, and the European Association of Preventive Cardiology

Genome-wide association studies have revealed hundreds of genetic variants associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Polygenic risk scores (PRS) can capture this information in a single metric and hold promise for use in CVD risk prediction. Importantly, PRS information can reflect the causally mediated risk to which the individual is exposed throughout life. Although European Society of Cardiology guidelines do not currently advocate their use in routine clinical practice, PRS are commercially available and increasingly sought by clinicians, health systems, and members of the public to inform personalized health care decision-making. This clinical consensus statement provides an overview of the scientific basis of PRS and evidence to date on their role in CVD risk prediction for the purposes of disease prevention. It provides the reader with a summary of the opportunities and challenges for implementation and identifies current gaps in supporting evidence. The document also lays out a potential roadmap by which the scientific and clinical community can navigate any future transition of PRS into routine clinical care. Finally, clinical scenarios are presented where information from PRS may hold most value and discuss organizational frameworks to enable responsible use of PRS testing while more evidence is being generated by clinical studies.

Biobanking with genetics shapes precision medicine and global health

Precision medicine provides patients with access to personally tailored treatments based on individual-level data. However, developing personalized therapies requires analyses with substantial statistical power to map genetic and epidemiologic associations that ultimately create models informing clinical decisions. As one solution, biobanks have emerged as large-scale, longitudinal cohort studies with long-term storage of biological specimens and health information, including electronic health records and participant survey responses. By providing access to individual-level data for genotype-phenotype mapping efforts, pharmacogenomic studies, polygenic risk score assessments and rare variant analyses, biobanks support ongoing and future precision medicine research. Notably, due in part to the geographical enrichment of biobanks in Western Europe and North America, European ancestries have become disproportionately over-represented in precision medicine research. Herein, we provide a genetics-focused review of biobanks from around the world that are in pursuit of supporting precision medicine. We discuss the limitations of their designs, ongoing efforts to diversify genomics research and strategies to maximize the benefits of research leveraging biobanks for all.

Polygenic prediction of major depressive disorder and related traits in African ancestries UK Biobank participants

Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) over-represent European ancestries, neglecting all other ancestry groups and low-income nations. Consequently, polygenic risk scores (PRS) more accurately predict complex traits in Europeans than African Ancestries groups. Very few studies have looked at the transferability of European-derived PRS for behavioural and mental health phenotypes to Africans. We assessed the comparative accuracy of depression PRS trained on European and African Ancestries GWAS studies to predict major depressive disorder (MDD) and related traits in African ancestry participants from the UK Biobank. UK Biobank participants were selected based on Principal component analysis clustering with an African genetic similarity reference population, MDD was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). PRS were computed using PRSice2 software using either European or African Ancestries GWAS summary statistics. PRS trained on European ancestry samples (246,363 cases) predicted case control status in Africans of the UK Biobank with similar accuracies (R2 = 2%, β = 0.32, empirical p-value = 0.002) to PRS trained on far much smaller samples of African Ancestries participants from 23andMe, Inc. (5045 cases, R² = 1.8%, β = 0.28, empirical p-value = 0.008). This suggests that prediction of MDD status from Africans to Africans had greater efficiency relative to discovery sample size than prediction of MDD from Europeans to Africans. Prediction of MDD status in African UK Biobank participants using GWAS findings of likely causal risk factors from European ancestries was non-significant. GWAS of MDD in European ancestries are inefficient for improving polygenic prediction in African samples; urgent MDD studies in Africa are needed.

Genetic Analysis of Psychosis Biotypes: Shared Ancestry-Adjusted Polygenic Risk and Unique Genomic Associations

The Bipolar-Schizophrenia Network for Intermediate Phenotypes (B-SNIP) created psychosis Biotypes based on neurobiological measurements in a multi-ancestry sample. These Biotypes cut across DSM diagnoses of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder and bipolar disorder with psychosis. Two recently developed post hoc ancestry adjustment methods of Polygenic Risk Scores (PRSs) generate Ancestry-Adjusted PRSs (AAPRSs), which allow for PRS analysis of multi-ancestry samples. Applied to schizophrenia PRS, we found the Khera AAPRS method to show superior portability and comparable prediction accuracy as compared with the Ge method. The three Biotypes of psychosis disorders had similar AAPRSs across ancestries. In genomic analysis of Biotypes, 12 genes and isoforms showed significant genomic associations with specific Biotypes in Transcriptome-Wide Association Study (TWAS) of genetically regulated expression (GReX) in adult brain and fetal brain. TWAS inflation was addressed by inclusion of genotype principal components in the association analyses. Seven of these 12 genes/isoforms satisfied Mendelian Randomization (MR) criteria for putative causality, including four genes TMEM140, ARTN, C1orf115, CYREN, and three transcripts ENSG00000272941, ENSG00000257176, ENSG00000287733. These genes are enriched in the biological pathways of Rearranged during Transfection (RET) signaling, Neural Cell Adhesion Molecule 1 (NCAM1) interactions, and NCAM signaling for neurite out-growth. The specific associations with Biotypes suggest that pharmacological clinical trials and biological investigations might benefit from analyzing Biotypes separately.

The Promise and Challenges of Integrating Biological and Prevention Sciences: A Community-Engaged Model for the Next Generation of Translational Research

Beginning with the successful sequencing of the human genome two decades ago, the possibility of developing personalized health interventions based on one's biology has captured the imagination of researchers, medical providers, and individuals seeking health care services. However, the application of a personalized medicine approach to emotional and behavioral health has lagged behind the development of personalized approaches for physical health conditions. There is potential value in developing improved methods for integrating biological science with prevention science to identify risk and protective mechanisms that have biological underpinnings, and then applying that knowledge to inform prevention and intervention services for emotional and behavioral health. This report represents the work of a task force appointed by the Board of the Society for Prevention Research to explore challenges and recommendations for the integration of biological and prevention sciences. We present the state of the science and barriers to progress in integrating the two approaches, followed by recommended strategies that would promote the responsible integration of biological and prevention sciences. Recommendations are grounded in Community-Based Participatory Research approaches, with the goal of centering equity in future research aimed at integrating the two disciplines to ultimately improve the well-being of those who have disproportionately experienced or are at risk for experiencing emotional and behavioral problems.

The Geneticization of Education and Its Bioethical Implications

The day has arrived that genetic tests for educational outcomes are available to the public. Today parents and students alike can send off a sample of blood or saliva and receive a 'genetic report' for a range of characteristics relevant to education, including intelligence, math ability, reading ability, and educational attainment. DTC availability is compounded by a growing "precision education" initiative, which proposes the application of DNA tests in schools to tailor educational curricula to children's genomic profiles. Here I argue that these happenings are a strong signal of the geneticization of education; the process by which educational abilities and outcomes come to be examined, understood, explained, and treated as primarily genetic characteristics. I clarify what it means to geneticize education, highlight the nature and limitations of the underlying science, explore both real and potential downstream bioethical implications, and make proposals for mitigating negative impacts.

Ethnic and region-specific genetic risk variants of stroke and its comorbid conditions can define the variations in the burden of stroke and its phenotypic traits

Burden of stroke differs by region, which could be attributed to differences in comorbid conditions and ethnicity. Genomewide variation acts as a proxy marker for ethnicity, and comorbid conditions. We present an integrated approach to understand this variation by considering prevalence and mortality rates of stroke and its comorbid risk for 204 countries from 2009 to 2019, and Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) risk variant for all these conditions. Global and regional trend analysis of rates using linear regression, correlation, and proportion analysis, signifies ethnogeographic differences. Interestingly, the comorbid conditions that act as risk drivers for stroke differed by regions, with more of metabolic risk in America and Europe, in contrast to high systolic blood pressure in Asian and African regions. GWAS risk loci of stroke and its comorbid conditions indicate distinct population stratification for each of these conditions, signifying for population-specific risk. Unique and shared genetic risk variants for stroke, and its comorbid and followed up with ethnic-specific variation can help in determining regional risk drivers for stroke. Unique ethnic-specific risk variants and their distinct patterns of linkage disequilibrium further uncover the drivers for phenotypic variation. Therefore, identifying population- and comorbidity-specific risk variants might help in defining the threshold for risk, and aid in developing population-specific prevention strategies for stroke.

Investigating the Role of Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status and Germline Genetics on Prostate Cancer Risk

Background

Genetic factors play an important role in prostate cancer (PCa) development with polygenic risk scores (PRS) predicting disease risk across genetic ancestries. However, there are few convincing modifiable factors for PCa and little is known about their potential interaction with genetic risk. We analyzed incident PCa cases (n=6,155) and controls (n=98,257) of European and African ancestry from the UK Biobank (UKB) cohort to evaluate the role of neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES)-and how it may interact with PRS-on PCa risk.

Methods

We evaluated a multi-ancestry PCa PRS containing 269 genetic variants to understand the association of germline genetics with PCa in UKB. Using the English Indices of Deprivation, a set of validated metrics that quantify lack of resources within geographical areas, we performed logistic regression to investigate the main effects and interactions between nSES deprivation, PCa PRS, and PCa.

Results

The PCa PRS was strongly associated with PCa (OR=2.04; 95%CI=2.00-2.09; P<0.001). Additionally, nSES deprivation indices were inversely associated with PCa: employment (OR=0.91; 95%CI=0.86-0.96; P<0.001), education (OR=0.94; 95%CI=0.83-0.98; P<0.001), health (OR=0.91; 95%CI=0.86-0.96; P<0.001), and income (OR=0.91; 95%CI=0.86-0.96; P<0.001). The PRS effects showed little heterogeneity across nSES deprivation indices, except for the Townsend Index (P=0.03).

Conclusions

We reaffirmed genetics as a risk factor for PCa and identified nSES deprivation domains that influence PCa detection and are potentially correlated with environmental exposures that are a risk factor for PCa. These findings also suggest that nSES and genetic risk factors for PCa act independently.

Joint association of genetic risk and accelerometer-measured physical activity with incident coronary artery disease in the UK biobank cohort

Previous research demonstrates the joint association of self-reported physical activity and genotype with coronary artery disease. However, an existing research gap is whether accelerometer-measured overall physical activity or physical activity intensity can offset genetic predisposition to coronary artery disease. This study explores the independent and joint associations of accelerometer-measured physical activity and genetic predisposition with incident coronary artery disease. Incident coronary artery disease based on hospital inpatient records and death register data serves as the outcome of this study. Polygenic risk score and overall physical activity, measured as Euclidean Norm Minus One, and intensity, measured as minutes per day of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA), are examined both linearly and by decile. The UK Biobank population-based cohort recruited over 500,000 individuals aged 40 to 69 between 2006 and 2010, with 103,712 volunteers participating in a weeklong wrist-worn accelerometer study from 2013 to 2015. Individuals of White British ancestry (n = 65,079) meeting the genotyping and accelerometer-based inclusion criteria and with no missing covariates were included in the analytic sample. In the sample of 65,079 individuals, the mean (SD) age was 62.51 (7.76) and 61% were female. During a median follow-up of 6.8 years, 1,382 cases of coronary artery disease developed. At the same genetic risk, physical activity intensity had a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.41 (95% CI: 0.29-0.60) at the 90th compared to 10th percentile, equivalent to 31.68 and 120.96 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity per day, respectively, versus an HR of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.52-0.72) for overall physical activity. The combination of high genetic risk and low physical activity intensity showed the greatest risk, with an individual at the 10th percentile of genetic risk and 90th percentile of intensity facing an HR of 0.14 (95% CI: 0.09-0.21) compared to an individual at the 90th percentile of genetic risk and 10th percentile of intensity. Physical activity, especially physical activity intensity, is associated with an attenuation of some of the risk of coronary artery disease but this pattern does not vary by genetic risk. This accelerometer-based study provides the clearest evidence to date regarding the joint influence of genetics, overall physical activity, and physical activity intensity on coronary artery disease.

A unified framework for estimating country-specific cumulative incidence for 18 diseases stratified by polygenic risk

Polygenic scores (PGSs) offer the ability to predict genetic risk for complex diseases across the life course; a key benefit over short-term prediction models. To produce risk estimates relevant to clinical and public health decision-making, it is important to account for varying effects due to age and sex. Here, we develop a novel framework to estimate country-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of cumulative incidence stratified by PGS for 18 high-burden diseases. We integrate PGS associations from seven studies in four countries (N = 1,197,129) with disease incidences from the Global Burden of Disease. PGS has a significant sex-specific effect for asthma, hip osteoarthritis, gout, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D), with all but T2D exhibiting a larger effect in men. PGS has a larger effect in younger individuals for 13 diseases, with effects decreasing linearly with age. We show for breast cancer that, relative to individuals in the bottom 20% of polygenic risk, the top 5% attain an absolute risk for screening eligibility 16.3 years earlier. Our framework increases the generalizability of results from biobank studies and the accuracy of absolute risk estimates by appropriately accounting for age- and sex-specific PGS effects. Our results highlight the potential of PGS as a screening tool which may assist in the early prevention of common diseases.

Genotype × environment interactions in gene regulation and complex traits

Genotype × environment interactions (GxE) have long been recognized as a key mechanism underlying human phenotypic variation. Technological developments over the past 15 years have dramatically expanded our appreciation of the role of GxE in both gene regulation and complex traits. The richness and complexity of these datasets also required parallel efforts to develop robust and sensitive statistical and computational approaches. Although our understanding of the genetic architecture of molecular and complex traits has been maturing, a large proportion of complex trait heritability remains unexplained. Furthermore, there are increasing efforts to characterize the effect of environmental exposure on human health. We therefore review GxE in human gene regulation and complex traits, advocating for a comprehensive approach that jointly considers genetic and environmental factors in human health and disease.

Multi-Ancestry Polygenic Risk Score for Coronary Heart Disease Based on an Ancestrally Diverse Genome-Wide Association Study and Population-Specific Optimization

BACKGROUND

Predictive performance of polygenic risk scores (PRS) varies across populations. To facilitate equitable clinical use, we developed PRS for coronary heart disease (CHD; PRSCHD) for 5 genetic ancestry groups.

METHODS

We derived ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSCHD based on pruning and thresholding (PRSPT) and ancestry-based continuous shrinkage priors (PRSCSx) applied to summary statistics from the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide association study meta-analysis for CHD to date, including 1.1 million participants from 5 major genetic ancestry groups. Following training and optimization in the Million Veteran Program, we evaluated the best-performing PRSCHD in 176,988 individuals across 9 diverse cohorts.

RESULTS

Multi-ancestry PRSPT and PRSCSx outperformed ancestry-specific PRSPT and PRSCSx across a range of tuning values. Two best-performing multi-ancestry PRSCHD (ie, PRSPTmult and PRSCSxmult) and 1 ancestry-specific (PRSCSxEUR) were taken forward for validation. PRSPTmult demonstrated the strongest association with CHD in individuals of South Asian ancestry and European ancestry (odds ratio per 1 SD [95% CI, 2.75 [2.41-3.14], 1.65 [1.59-1.72]), followed by East Asian ancestry (1.56 [1.50-1.61]), Hispanic/Latino ancestry (1.38 [1.24-1.54]), and African ancestry (1.16 [1.11-1.21]). PRSCSxmult showed the strongest associations in South Asian ancestry (2.67 [2.38-3.00]) and European ancestry (1.65 [1.59-1.71]), lower in East Asian ancestry (1.59 [1.54-1.64]), Hispanic/Latino ancestry (1.51 [1.35-1.69]), and the lowest in African ancestry (1.20 [1.15-1.26]).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of summary statistics from a large multi-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis improved the performance of PRSCHD in most ancestry groups compared with single-ancestry methods. Despite the use of one of the largest and most diverse sets of training and validation cohorts to date, improvement of predictive performance was limited in African ancestry. This highlights the need for larger genome-wide association study datasets of underrepresented populations to enhance the performance of PRSCHD.

Insights into Ancestral Diversity in Parkinsons Disease Risk: A Comparative Assessment of Polygenic Risk Scores

Objectives To evaluate and compare different polygenic risk score (PRS) models in predicting Parkinsons disease (PD) across diverse ancestries, focusing on identifying the most suitable approach for each population and potentially contributing to equitable advancements in precision medicine. Methods We constructed a total of 105 PRS across individual level data from seven diverse ancestries. First, a cross-ancestry conventional PRS comparison was implemented by utilizing the 90 known European risk loci with weighted effects from four independent summary statistics including European, East Asian, Latino/Admixed American, and African/Admixed. These models were adjusted by sex, age, and principal components (28 PRS) and by sex, age, and percentage of admixture (28 PRS) for comparison. Secondly, a novel and refined multi-ancestry best-fit PRS approach was then applied across the seven ancestries by leveraging multi-ancestry meta-analyzed summary statistics and using a p-value thresholding approach (49 PRS) to enhance prediction applicability in a global setting. Results European-based PRS models predicted disease status across all ancestries to differing degrees of accuracy. Ashkenazi Jewish had the highest Odds Ratio (OR): 1.96 (95% CI: 1.69-2.25, p < 0.0001) with an AUC (Area Under the Curve) of 68%. Conversely, the East Asian population, despite having fewer predictive variants (84 out of 90), had an OR of 1.37 (95% CI: 1.32-1.42) and an AUC of 62%, illustrating the cross-ancestry transferability of this model. Lower OR alongside broader confidence intervals were observed in other populations, including Africans (OR =1.38, 95% CI: 1.12-1.63, p=0.001). Adjustment by percentage of admixture did not outperform principal components. Multi-ancestry best-fit PRS models improved risk prediction in European, Ashkenazi Jewish, and African ancestries, yet didn't surpass conventional PRS in admixed populations such as Latino/American admixed and African admixed populations. Interpretation The present study represents a novel and comprehensive assessment of PRS performance across seven ancestries in PD, highlighting the inadequacy of a 'one size fits all' approach in genetic risk prediction. We demonstrated that European based PD PRS models are partially transferable to other ancestries and could be improved by a novel best-fit multi-ancestry PRS, especially in non-admixed populations.

Investigating the sources of variable impact of pathogenic variants in monogenic metabolic conditions

Over three percent of people carry a dominant pathogenic variant, yet only a fraction of carriers develop disease. Disease phenotypes from carriers of variants in the same gene range from mild to severe. Here, we investigate underlying mechanisms for this heterogeneity: variable variant effect sizes, carrier polygenic backgrounds, and modulation of carrier effect by genetic background (marginal epistasis). We leveraged exomes and clinical phenotypes from the UK Biobank and the Mt. Sinai BioMe Biobank to identify carriers of pathogenic variants affecting cardiometabolic traits. We employed recently developed methods to study these cohorts, observing strong statistical support and clinical translational potential for all three mechanisms of variable carrier penetrance and disease severity. For example, scores from our recent model of variant pathogenicity were tightly correlated with phenotype amongst clinical variant carriers, they predicted effects of variants of unknown significance, and they distinguished gain- from loss-of-function variants. We also found that polygenic scores predicted phenotypes amongst pathogenic carriers and that epistatic effects can exceed main carrier effects by an order of magnitude.

Comprehensive Inherited Risk Estimation for Risk-Based Breast Cancer Screening in Women

PURPOSE

Family history (FH) and pathogenic variants (PVs) are used for guiding risk surveillance in selected high-risk women but little is known about their impact for breast cancer screening on population level. In addition, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been shown to efficiently stratify breast cancer risk through combining information about common genetic factors into one measure.

METHODS

In longitudinal real-life data, we evaluate PRS, FH, and PVs for stratified screening. Using FinnGen (N = 117,252), linked to the Mass Screening Registry for breast cancer (1992-2019; nationwide organized biennial screening for age 50-69 years), we assessed the screening performance of a breast cancer PRS and compared its performance with FH of breast cancer and PVs in moderate- (CHEK2)- to high-risk (PALB2) susceptibility genes.

RESULTS

Effect sizes for FH, PVs, and high PRS (>90th percentile) were comparable in screening-aged women, with similar implications for shifting age at screening onset. A high PRS identified women more likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer after a positive screening finding (positive predictive value [PPV], 39.5% [95% CI, 37.6 to 41.5]). Combinations of risk factors increased the PPVs up to 45% to 50%. A high PRS conferred an elevated risk of interval breast cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 2.78 [95% CI, 2.00 to 3.86] at age 50 years; HR, 2.48 [95% CI, 1.67 to 3.70] at age 60 years), and women with a low PRS (<10th percentile) had a low risk for both interval- and screen-detected breast cancers.

CONCLUSION

Using real-life screening data, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of a breast cancer PRS for risk stratification, alone and combined with FH and PVs. Further research is required to evaluate their impact in a prospective risk-stratified screening program, including cost-effectiveness.

The effect of scutellaria baicalensis and its active ingredients on major depressive disorder: a systematic review and meta-analysis of literature in pre-clinical research

Background: Scutellaria baicalensis, the dry root of scutellaria baicalensis georgi, is a traditional Chinese medicine with long. In clinic, scutellaria baicalensis is commonly used in prescription for the treatment of depression. Additionally, numerous pre-clinical studies have shown that Scutellaria baicalensis and its active constituents are effective for depression. In this study, we aims to systematically review the roles of scutellaria baicalensis in depression and summarize the possible mechanism. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to analyze the existing studies on the effects of scutellaria baicalensis on depression in animal models. Briefly, we searched electronic databases including Pubmed and Embase for preclinical trial studies from inception to September 2023. The items in each study were evaluated by two independent reviewers, and meta-analyses were performed on scutellaria baicalensis-induced behavioral changes in the study. Finally, random effects model is used to collect data. Results: A total of 49 studies were identified, and 13 studies were included in the final analysis. They all reported the different antidepressant effects of scutellaria baicalensis and the underlying biological mechanisms. Among the included 13 studies, the results of eight articles SPT[SMD = -2.80, 95%CI(-4.03, -1.57), p < 0.01], the results of the nine articles OFT[SMD = -2.38, 95%CI(-3.53, -1.23), p < 0.01], and the results of two articles NSFT[SMD = -2.98, 95%CI(-3.94, -2.02), p < 0.01] were significantly different from the control group. The risk of bias was moderate in all studies, however, there was a significant heterogeneity among studies. Conclusion: These results preliminarily suggest that scutellaria baicalensis can alleviate depressive behaviors and modulate underlying mechanisms, which is expected to be a promising antidepressant.

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores for colorectal cancer have implications for risk-based screening

BACKGROUND

Hereditary factors, including single genetic variants and family history, can be used for targeting colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, but limited data exist on the impact of polygenic risk scores (PRS) on risk-based CRC screening.

METHODS

Using longitudinal health and genomics data on 453,733 Finnish individuals including 8801 CRC cases, we estimated the impact of a genome-wide CRC PRS on CRC screening initiation age through population-calibrated incidence estimation over the life course in men and women.

RESULTS

Compared to the cumulative incidence of CRC at age 60 in Finland (the current age for starting screening in Finland), a comparable cumulative incidence was reached 5 and 11 years earlier in persons with high PRS (80-99% and >99%, respectively), while those with a low PRS (< 20%) reached comparable incidence 7 years later. The PRS was associated with increased risk of post-colonoscopy CRC after negative colonoscopy (hazard ratio 1.76 per PRS SD, 95% CI 1.54-2.01). Moreover, the PRS predicted colorectal adenoma incidence and improved incident CRC risk prediction over non-genetic risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that a CRC PRS can be used for risk stratification of CRC, with further research needed to optimally integrate the PRS into risk-based screening.

Worldwide distribution of genetic factors related to severity of COVID-19 infection

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies of COVID-19 severity have been carried out mostly on European or East Asian populations with small representation of other world regions. Here we explore the worldwide distribution and linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns of genetic variants previously associated with COVID-19 severity.

METHODS

We followed up the results of a large Spanish genome-wide meta-analysis on 26 populations from the 1000 Genomes Project by calculating allele frequencies and LD scores of the nine most significant SNPs. We also used the entire set of summary statistics to compute polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and carried out comparisons at the population and continental level.

RESULTS

We observed the strongest differences among continental regions for the five top SNPs in chromosome 3. European, American, and South Asian populations showed similar LD patterns. Average PRSs in South Asian and American populations were consistently higher than those observed in Europeans. While PRS distributions were similar among South Asians, the American populations showed striking differences among them.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the caveats of PRS transferability across ethnicities, our analysis showed that American populations present the highest genetic risk score, hence potentially higher propensity, for COVID-19 severity. Independent validation is warranted with additional summary statistics and phenotype data.

Integrating a Polygenic Risk Score into a clinical setting would impact risk predictions in familial breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Low-impact genetic variants identified in population-based genetic studies are not routinely measured as part of clinical genetic testing in familial breast cancer (BC). We studied the consequences of integrating an established Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) (BCAC 313, PRS313) into clinical sequencing of women with familial BC in Sweden.

METHODS

We developed an add-on sequencing panel to capture 313 risk variants in addition to the clinical screening of hereditary BC genes. Index patients with no pathogenic variant from 87 families, and 1000 population controls, were included in comparative PRS calculations. Including detailed family history, sequencing results and tumour pathology information, we used BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) V.6 to estimate contralateral and lifetime risks without and with PRS313.

RESULTS

Women with BC but no pathogenic variants in hereditary BC genes have a higher PRS313 compared with population controls (mean+0.78 SD, p<3e-9). Implementing PRS313 in the clinical risk estimation before their BC diagnosis would have changed the recommended follow-up in 24%-45% of women.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show the potential impact of incorporating PRS313 directly in the clinical genomic investigation of women with familial BC.

Evaluating the Efficacy of Type 2 Diabetes Polygenic Risk Scores in an Independent European Population

Numerous type 2 diabetes (T2D) polygenic risk scores (PGSs) have been developed to predict individuals' predisposition to the disease. An independent assessment and verification of the best-performing PGS are warranted to allow for a rapid application of developed models. To date, only 3% of T2D PGSs have been evaluated. In this study, we assessed all (n = 102) presently published T2D PGSs in an independent cohort of 3718 individuals, which has not been included in the construction or fine-tuning of any T2D PGS so far. We further chose the best-performing PGS, assessed its performance across major population principal component analysis (PCA) clusters, and compared it with newly developed population-specific T2D PGS. Our findings revealed that 88% of the published PGSs were significantly associated with T2D; however, their performance was lower than what had been previously reported. We found a positive association of PGS improvement over the years (p-value = 8.01 × 10-4 with PGS002771 currently showing the best discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) = 0.669) and PGS003443 exhibiting the strongest association PGS003443 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.899). Further investigation revealed no difference in PGS performance across major population PCA clusters and when compared with newly developed population-specific PGS. Our findings revealed a positive trend in T2D PGS performance, consistently identifying high-T2D-risk individuals in an independent European population.

Principles and methods for transferring polygenic risk scores across global populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) summarize the genetic predisposition of a complex human trait or disease and may become a valuable tool for advancing precision medicine. However, PRSs that are developed in populations of predominantly European genetic ancestries can increase health disparities due to poor predictive performance in individuals of diverse and complex genetic ancestries. We describe genetic and modifiable risk factors that limit the transferability of PRSs across populations and review the strengths and weaknesses of existing PRS construction methods for diverse ancestries. Developing PRSs that benefit global populations in research and clinical settings provides an opportunity for innovation and is essential for health equity.

Polygenic prediction of major depressive disorder and related traits in African ancestries UK Biobank participants

Introduction

Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) over-represent European ancestries compared to the global population, neglecting all other ancestry groups and low-income nations. Consequently, polygenic risk scores (PRS) more accurately predict complex traits in Europeans than African Ancestries groups. Very few studies have looked at the transferability of European-derived PRS for behavioural and mental health phenotypes to non-Europeans. We assessed the comparative accuracy of PRS for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) trained on European and African Ancestries GWAS studies to predict MDD and related traits in African Ancestries participants from the UK Biobank.

Methods

UK Biobank participants were selected based on Principal component analysis (PCA) clustering with an African genetic similarity reference population and MDD was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) were computed using PRSice2 using either European or African Ancestries GWAS summary statistics.

Results

PRS trained on European ancestry samples (246,363 cases) predicted case control status in Africans of the UK Biobank with similar accuracies (190 cases, R2=2%) to PRS trained on far much smaller samples of African Ancestries participants from 23andMe, Inc. (5045 cases, R2=1.8%). This suggests that prediction of MDD status from Africans to Africans had greater efficiency per unit increase in the discovery sample size than prediction of MDD from Europeans to Africans. Prediction of MDD status in African UK Biobank participants using GWAS findings of causal risk factors from European ancestries was non-significant.

Conclusion

GWAS studies of MDD in European ancestries are an inefficient means of improving polygenic prediction accuracy in African samples.

Utility of Polygenic Scores for Differentiating Diabetes Diagnosis Among Patients With Atypical Phenotypes of Diabetes

CONTEXT

Misclassification of diabetes type occurs in people with atypical presentations of type 1 diabetes (T1D) or type 2 diabetes (T2D). Although current clinical guidelines suggest clinical variables and treatment response as ways to help differentiate diabetes type, they remain insufficient for people with atypical presentations.

OBJECTIVE

This work aimed to assess the clinical utility of 2 polygenic scores (PGSs) in differentiating between T1D and T2D.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with diabetes in the UK Biobank were studied (N = 41 787), including 464 (1%) and 15 923 (38%) who met the criteria for classic T1D and T2D, respectively, and 25 400 (61%) atypical diabetes. The validity of 2 published PGSs for T1D (PGST1D) and T2D (PGST2D) in differentiating classic T1D or T2D was assessed using C statistic. The utility of genetic probability for T1D based on PGSs (GenProb-T1D) was evaluated in atypical diabetes patients.

RESULTS

The joint performance of PGST1D and PGST2D for differentiating classic T1D or T2D was outstanding (C statistic = 0.91), significantly higher than that of PGST1D alone (0.88) and PGST2D alone (0.70), both P less than .001. Using an optimal cutoff of GenProb-T1D, 23% of patients with atypical diabetes had a higher probability of T1D and its validity was independently supported by clinical presentations that are characteristic of T1D.

CONCLUSION

PGST1D and PGST2D can be used to discriminate classic T1D and T2D and have potential clinical utility for differentiating these 2 types of diseases among patients with atypical diabetes.

Ancestry-specific polygenic risk scores are risk enhancers for clinical cardiovascular disease assessments

Clinical implementation of new prediction models requires evaluation of their utility in a broad range of intended use populations. Here we develop and validate ancestry-specific Polygenic Risk Scores (PRSs) for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) using 29,389 individuals from diverse cohorts and genetic ancestry groups. The CAD PRSs outperform published scores with an average Odds Ratio per Standard Deviation of 1.57 (SD = 0.14) and identify between 12% and 24% of individuals with high genetic risk. Using this risk factor to reclassify borderline or intermediate 10 year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk improves assessments for both CAD (Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) = 13.14% (95% CI 9.23-17.06%)) and ASCVD (NRI = 10.70 (95% CI 7.35-14.05)) in an independent cohort of 9,691 individuals. Our analyses demonstrate that using PRSs as Risk Enhancers improves ASCVD risk assessments outlining an approach for guiding ASCVD prevention with genetic information.

Combining Polygenic and Proteomic Risk Scores With Clinical Risk Factors to Improve Performance for Diagnosing Absence of Coronary Artery Disease in Patients With de novo Chest Pain

BACKGROUND

Patients with de novo chest pain, referred for evaluation of possible coronary artery disease (CAD), frequently have an absence of CAD resulting in millions of tests not having any clinical impact. The objective of this study was to investigate whether polygenic risk scores and targeted proteomics improve the prediction of absence of CAD in patients with suspected CAD, when added to the PROMISE (Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain) minimal risk score (PMRS).

METHODS

Genotyping and targeted plasma proteomics (N=368 proteins) were performed in 1440 patients with symptoms suspected to be caused by CAD undergoing coronary computed tomography angiography. Based on individual genotypes, a polygenic risk score for CAD (PRSCAD) was calculated. The prediction was performed using combinations of PRSCAD, proteins, and PMRS as features in models using stability selection and machine learning.

RESULTS

Prediction of absence of CAD yielded an area under the curve of PRSCAD-model, 0.64±0.03; proteomic-model, 0.58±0.03; and PMRS model, 0.76±0.02. No significant correlation was found between the genetic and proteomic risk scores (Pearson correlation coefficient, -0.04; P=0.13). Optimal predictive ability was achieved by the full model (PRSCAD+protein+PMRS) yielding an area under the curve of 0.80±0.02 for absence of CAD, significantly better than the PMRS model alone (P<0.001). For reclassification purpose, the full model enabled down-classification of 49% (324 of 661) of the 5% to 15% pretest probability patients and 18% (113 of 611) of >15% pretest probability patients.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with chest pain and low-intermediate CAD risk, incorporating targeted proteomics and polygenic risk scores into the risk assessment substantially improved the ability to predict the absence of CAD. Genetics and proteomics seem to add complementary information to the clinical risk factors and improve risk stratification in this large patient group.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov; Unique identifier: NCT02264717.

A multi-ancestry polygenic risk score improves risk prediction for coronary artery disease

Identification of individuals at highest risk of coronary artery disease (CAD)-ideally before onset-remains an important public health need. Prior studies have developed genome-wide polygenic scores to enable risk stratification, reflecting the substantial inherited component to CAD risk. Here we develop a new and significantly improved polygenic score for CAD, termed GPSMult, that incorporates genome-wide association data across five ancestries for CAD (>269,000 cases and >1,178,000 controls) and ten CAD risk factors. GPSMult strongly associated with prevalent CAD (odds ratio per standard deviation 2.14, 95% confidence interval 2.10-2.19, P < 0.001) in UK Biobank participants of European ancestry, identifying 20.0% of the population with 3-fold increased risk and conversely 13.9% with 3-fold decreased risk as compared with those in the middle quintile. GPSMult was also associated with incident CAD events (hazard ratio per standard deviation 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.70-1.76, P < 0.001), identifying 3% of healthy individuals with risk of future CAD events equivalent to those with existing disease and significantly improving risk discrimination and reclassification. Across multiethnic, external validation datasets inclusive of 33,096, 124,467, 16,433 and 16,874 participants of African, European, Hispanic and South Asian ancestry, respectively, GPSMult demonstrated increased strength of associations across all ancestries and outperformed all available previously published CAD polygenic scores. These data contribute a new GPSMult for CAD to the field and provide a generalizable framework for how large-scale integration of genetic association data for CAD and related traits from diverse populations can meaningfully improve polygenic risk prediction.

Genomic Innovation in Early Life Cardiovascular Disease Prevention and Treatment

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Although CVD events do not typically manifest until older adulthood, CVD develops gradually across the life-course, beginning with the elevation of risk factors observed as early as childhood or adolescence and the emergence of subclinical disease that can occur in young adulthood or midlife. Genomic background, which is determined at zygote formation, is among the earliest risk factors for CVD. With major advances in molecular technology, including the emergence of gene-editing techniques, along with deep whole-genome sequencing and high-throughput array-based genotyping, scientists now have the opportunity to not only discover genomic mechanisms underlying CVD but use this knowledge for the life-course prevention and treatment of these conditions. The current review focuses on innovations in the field of genomics and their applications to monogenic and polygenic CVD prevention and treatment. With respect to monogenic CVD, we discuss how the emergence of whole-genome sequencing technology has accelerated the discovery of disease-causing variants, allowing comprehensive screening and early, aggressive CVD mitigation strategies in patients and their families. We further describe advances in gene editing technology, which might soon make possible cures for CVD conditions once thought untreatable. In relation to polygenic CVD, we focus on recent innovations that leverage findings of genome-wide association studies to identify druggable gene targets and develop predictive genomic models of disease, which are already facilitating breakthroughs in the life-course treatment and prevention of CVD. Gaps in current research and future directions of genomics studies are also discussed. In aggregate, we hope to underline the value of leveraging genomics and broader multiomics information for characterizing CVD conditions, work which promises to expand precision approaches for the life-course prevention and treatment of CVD.

A Multi-Ancestry Polygenic Risk Score for Coronary Heart Disease Based on an Ancestrally Diverse Genome-Wide Association Study and Population-Specific Optimization

Background

Predictive performance of polygenic risk scores (PRS) varies across populations. To facilitate equitable clinical use, we developed PRS for coronary heart disease (PRSCHD) for 5 genetic ancestry groups.

Methods

We derived ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSCHD based on pruning and thresholding (PRSP+T) and continuous shrinkage priors (PRSCSx) applied on summary statistics from the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis for CHD to date, including 1.1 million participants from 5 continental populations. Following training and optimization of PRSCHD in the Million Veteran Program, we evaluated predictive performance of the best performing PRSCHD in 176,988 individuals across 9 cohorts of diverse genetic ancestry.

Results

Multi-ancestry PRSP+T outperformed ancestry specific PRSP+T across a range of tuning values. In training stage, for all ancestry groups, PRSCSx performed better than PRSP+T and multi-ancestry PRS outperformed ancestry-specific PRS. In independent validation cohorts, the selected multi-ancestry PRSP+T demonstrated the strongest association with CHD in individuals of South Asian (SAS) and European (EUR) ancestry (OR per 1SD[95% CI]; 2.75[2.41-3.14], 1.65[1.59-1.72]), followed by East Asian (EAS) (1.56[1.50-1.61]), Hispanic/Latino (HIS) (1.38[1.24-1.54]), and weakest in African (AFR) ancestry (1.16[1.11-1.21]). The selected multi-ancestry PRSCSx showed stronger associacion with CHD in comparison within each ancestry group where the association was strongest in SAS (2.67[2.38-3.00]) and EUR (1.65[1.59-1.71]), progressively decreasing in EAS (1.59[1.54-1.64]), HIS (1.51[1.35-1.69]), and lowest in AFR (1.20[1.15-1.26]).

Conclusions

Utilizing diverse summary statistics from a large multi-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis led to improved performance of PRSCHD in most ancestry groups compared to single-ancestry methods. Improvement of predictive performance was limited, specifically in AFR and HIS, despite use of one of the largest and most diverse set of training and validation cohorts to date. This highlights the need for larger GWAS datasets of AFR and HIS individuals to enhance performance of PRSCHD.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment Using Traditional Risk Factors and Polygenic Risk Scores in the Million Veteran Program

Importance

Primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) relies on risk stratification. Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are proposed to improve ASCVD risk estimation.

Objective

To determine whether genome-wide PRSs for coronary artery disease (CAD) and acute ischemic stroke improve ASCVD risk estimation with traditional clinical risk factors in an ancestrally diverse midlife population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a prognostic analysis of incident events in a retrospectively defined longitudinal cohort conducted from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2018. Included in the study were adults free of ASCVD and statin naive at baseline from the Million Veteran Program (MVP), a mega biobank with genetic, survey, and electronic health record data from a large US health care system. Data were analyzed from March 15, 2021, to January 5, 2023.

Exposures

PRSs for CAD and ischemic stroke derived from cohorts of largely European descent and risk factors, including age, sex, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, smoking, and diabetes status.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incident nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, ASCVD death, and composite ASCVD events.

Results

A total of 79 151 participants (mean [SD] age, 57.8 [13.7] years; 68 503 male [86.5%]) were included in the study. The cohort included participants from the following harmonized genetic ancestry and race and ethnicity categories: 18 505 non-Hispanic Black (23.4%), 6785 Hispanic (8.6%), and 53 861 non-Hispanic White (68.0%) with a median (5th-95th percentile) follow-up of 4.3 (0.7-6.9) years. From 2011 to 2018, 3186 MIs (4.0%), 1933 ischemic strokes (2.4%), 867 ASCVD deaths (1.1%), and 5485 composite ASCVD events (6.9%) were observed. CAD PRS was associated with incident MI in non-Hispanic Black (hazard ratio [HR], 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02-1.19), Hispanic (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.09-1.46), and non-Hispanic White (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.18-1.29) participants. Stroke PRS was associated with incident stroke in non-Hispanic White participants (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.08-1.21). A combined CAD plus stroke PRS was associated with ASCVD deaths among non-Hispanic Black (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17) and non-Hispanic (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.21) participants. The combined PRS was also associated with composite ASCVD across all ancestry groups but greater among non-Hispanic White (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.16-1.24) than non-Hispanic Black (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.17) and Hispanic (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.00-1.25) participants. Net reclassification improvement from adding PRS to a traditional risk model was modest for the intermediate risk group for composite CVD among men (5-year risk >3.75%, 0.38%; 95% CI, 0.07%-0.68%), among women, (6.79%; 95% CI, 3.01%-10.58%), for age older than 55 years (0.25%; 95% CI, 0.03%-0.47%), and for ages 40 to 55 years (1.61%; 95% CI, -0.07% to 3.30%).

Conclusions and Relevance

Study results suggest that PRSs derived predominantly in European samples were statistically significantly associated with ASCVD in the multiancestry midlife and older-age MVP cohort. Overall, modest improvement in discrimination metrics were observed with addition of PRSs to traditional risk factors with greater magnitude in women and younger age groups.

Association between genetic risk of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related morbidity and mortality under different alcohol policy conditions: Evidence from the Finnish alcohol price reduction of 2004

AIMS

Harmful alcohol consumption is influenced by both genetic susceptibility and the price of alcohol. Many previous studies have observed that genetic susceptibility to consumption of alcohol is more predictive in less restrictive drinking conditions. We assess whether such a pattern applies when the prices of alcoholic beverages are decreased.

DESIGN

Data consist of genetically informed population-representative surveys (FINRISK 1992, 1997, 2002 and Health 2000) linked to administrative registers. We analysed the interaction between a polygenic score (PGS) for alcoholic drinks per week consumed and price reduction in predicting the incidence of alcohol-related hospitalizations and deaths in difference-in-difference and interrupted time-series frameworks.

SETTING

Individuals in Finland were followed quarter-yearly from 1 March 2000 to 31 May 2008.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 22 152 individuals (607 132-person quarter-years, 1399 outcome events) aged 30-79 years.

INTERVENTION

A natural experiment stemming from the alcohol tax reduction in March 2004 and import deregulation in May 2004.

MEASUREMENTS

Outcome was quarter-yearly-measured alcohol-related death or hospitalization. The independent variables of main interest were PGS and a price reform indicator. We adjusted for gender, age, age squared, season, 10 first principal components of the genome, data collection round and genotyping batch.

FINDINGS

Both alcohol price reduction and one standard deviation change in PGS were associated with alcohol-related health outcomes; odds ratios (ORs) were 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13, 1.53 and 1.26, 95% CI = 1.12, 1.42 in the 8-year follow-up, respectively. The association between PGS and alcohol-related morbidity was similar before and after the alcohol price reform (PGS × price reform interaction OR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.81, 1.14). These results were robust across different follow-up periods and measurement and analysis strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the decrease of alcohol price in Finland in 2004 substantially increased overall alcohol-related morbidity and mortality, the genetic susceptibility to alcohol consumption did not become more manifest in predicting them.

A polygenic and family risk score are both independently associated with risk of type 2 diabetes in a population-based study

The availability of polygenic scores for type 2 diabetes (T2D) raises the question, whether assessing family history might become redundant. However, family history not only involves shared genetics, but also shared environment. It was the aim of this study to assess the independent and combined effects of one family risk score (FamRS) and a polygenic score (PGS) on prevalent and incident T2D risk in a population-based study from Germany (n = 3071). The study was conducted in 2004/2005 with up to 12 years of follow-up. The FamRS takes into account not only the number of diseased first grade relatives, but also age at onset of the relatives and age of participants. 256 prevalent and additional 163 incident T2D cases were recorded. Prevalence of T2D increased sharply for those within the top quantile of the PGS distribution resulting in an OR of 19.16 (p < 2 × 10^-16) for the top 20% compared to the remainder of the population, independent of age, sex, BMI, physical activity and FamRS. On the other hand, having a very strong family risk compared to average was still associated with an OR of 2.78 (p = 0.001), independent of the aforementioned factors and the PGS. The PGS and FamRS were only slightly correlated (r²_Spearman = 0.018). The combined contribution of both factors varied with varying age-groups, though, with decreasing influence of the PGS with increasing age. To conclude, both, genetic information and family history are relevant for the prediction of T2D risk and might be used for identification of high risk groups to personalize prevention measures.

Genome-wide polygenic risk score for major osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women using associated single nucleotide polymorphisms

BACKGROUND

Osteoporosis is highly polygenic and heritable, with heritability ranging from 50 to 80%; most inherited susceptibility is associated with the cumulative effect of many common genetic variants. However, existing genetic risk scores (GRS) only provide a few percent predictive power for osteoporotic fracture.

METHODS

We derived and validated a novel genome-wide polygenic score (GPS) comprised of 103,155 common genetic variants to quantify this susceptibility and tested this GPS prediction ability in an independent dataset (n = 15,776).

RESULTS

Among postmenopausal women, we found a fivefold gradient in the risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (p < 0.001) and a 15.25-fold increased risk of severe osteoporosis (p < 0.001) across the GPS deciles. Compared with the remainder of the GPS distribution, the top GPS decile was associated with a 3.59-, 2.48-, 1.92-, and 1.58-fold increased risk of any fracture, MOF, hip fracture, and spine fracture, respectively. The top GPS decile also identified nearly twofold more high-risk osteoporotic patients than the top decile of conventional GRS based on 1103 conditionally independent genome-wide significant SNPs. Although the relative risk of severe osteoporosis for postmenopausal women at around 50 is relatively similar, the cumulative incident at 20-year follow-up is significantly different between the top GPS decile (13.7%) and the bottom decile (< 1%). In the subgroup analysis, the GPS transferability in non-Hispanic White is better than in other racial/ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

This new method to quantify inherited susceptibility to osteoporosis and osteoporotic fracture affords new opportunities for clinical prevention and risk assessment.

Portability of Polygenic Risk Scores for Sleep Duration, Insomnia and Chronotype in 33,493 Individuals

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) estimate genetic liability for diseases and traits. However, the portability of PRSs in sleep traits has remained elusive. We generated PRSs for self-reported insomnia, chronotype and sleep duration using summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) performed in 350,000 to 697,000 European-ancestry individuals. We then projected the scores in two independent Finnish population cohorts (N = 33,493) and tested whether the PRSs were associated with their respective sleep traits. We observed that all the generated PRSs were associated with their corresponding traits (p < 0.05 in all cases). Furthermore, we found that there was a 22.2 min difference in reported sleep between the 5% tails of the PRS for sleep duration (p < 0.001). Our findings indicate that sleep-related PRSs show portability across cohorts. The findings also demonstrate that sleep measures using PRSs for sleep behaviors may provide useful instruments for testing disease and trait associations in cohorts where direct sleep parameters have not yet been measured.

Diversity in Polygenic Risk of Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma

Glaucoma is the leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide. Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), the most common glaucoma subtype, is more prevalent and severe in individuals of African ancestry. Unfortunately, this ancestral group has been historically under-represented among genetic studies of POAG. Moreover, both genetic and polygenic risk scores (GRS, PRS) that are typically based on genetic data from European-descent populations are not transferable to individuals without a majority of European ancestry. Given the aspirations of leveraging genetic information for precision medicine, GRS and PRS demonstrate clinical potential but fall short, in part due to the lack of diversity in these studies. Prioritizing diversity in the discovery of risk variants will improve the performance and utility of GRS and PRS-derived risk estimation for disease stratification, which could bring about earlier POAG intervention and treatment for a disease that often goes undetected until significant damage has occurred.

Statistical learning for sparser fine-mapped polygenic models: The prediction of LDL-cholesterol

Polygenic risk scores quantify the individual genetic predisposition regarding a particular trait. We propose and illustrate the application of existing statistical learning methods to derive sparser models for genome-wide data with a polygenic signal. Our approach is based on three consecutive steps. First, potentially informative loci are identified by a marginal screening approach. Then, fine-mapping is independently applied for blocks of variants in linkage disequilibrium, where informative variants are retrieved by using variable selection methods including boosting with probing and stochastic searches with the Adaptive Subspace method. Finally, joint prediction models with the selected variants are derived using statistical boosting. In contrast to alternative approaches relying on univariate summary statistics from genome-wide association studies, our three-step approach enables to select and fit multivariable regression models on large-scale genotype data. Based on UK Biobank data, we develop prediction models for LDL-cholesterol as a continuous trait. Additionally, we consider a recent scalable algorithm for the Lasso. Results show that statistical learning approaches based on fine-mapping of genetic signals result in a competitive prediction performance compared to classical polygenic risk approaches, while yielding sparser risk models.

Systematic comparison of family history and polygenic risk across 24 common diseases

Family history is the standard indirect measure of inherited susceptibility in clinical care, whereas polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have more recently demonstrated potential for more directly capturing genetic risk in many diseases. Few studies have systematically compared how these overlap and complement each other across common diseases. Within FinnGen (N = 306,418), we leverage family relationships, up to 50 years of nationwide registries, and genome-wide genotyping to examine the interplay of family history and genome-wide PRSs. We explore the dynamic for three types of family history across 24 common diseases: first- and second-degree family history and parental causes of death. Covering a large proportion of the burden of non-communicable diseases in adults, we show that family history and PRS are independent and not interchangeable measures, but instead provide complementary information on inherited disease susceptibility. The PRSs explained on average 10% of the effect of first-degree family history, and first-degree family history 3% of PRSs, and PRS effects were independent of both early- and late-onset family history. The PRS stratified the risk similarly in individuals with and without family history. In most diseases, including coronary artery disease, glaucoma, and type 2 diabetes, a positive family history with a high PRS was associated with a considerably elevated risk, whereas a low PRS compensated completely for the risk implied by positive family history. This study provides a catalogue of risk estimates for both family history of disease and PRSs and highlights opportunities for a more comprehensive way of assessing inherited disease risk across common diseases.

Association of a Multiancestry Genome-Wide Blood Pressure Polygenic Risk Score With Adverse Cardiovascular Events

BACKGROUND

Traditional cardiovascular risk factors and the underlying genetic risk of elevated blood pressure (BP) determine an individual's composite risk of developing adverse cardiovascular events. We sought to evaluate the relative contributions of the traditional cardiovascular risk factors to the development of adverse cardiovascular events in the context of varying BP genetic risk profiles.

METHODS

Genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) was computed using multiancestry genome-wide association estimates among US adults who underwent whole-genome sequencing in the Trans-Omics for Precision program. Individuals were stratified into high, intermediate, and low genetic risk groups (>80th, 20-80th, and <20th centiles of systolic BP [SBP] PRS). Based on the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations, participants were stratified into low and high (10 year-atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease [CVD] risk: <10% or ≥10%) cardiovascular risk factor profile groups. The primary study outcome was incident cardiovascular event (composite of incident heart failure, incident stroke, and incident coronary heart disease).

RESULTS

Among 21 897 US adults (median age: 56 years; 56.0% women; 35.8% non-White race/ethnicity), 1 SD increase in the SBP PRS, computed using 1.08 million variants, was associated with SBP (β: 4.39 [95% CI, 4.13-4.65]) and hypertension (odds ratio, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.46-1.55]), respectively. This association was robustly seen across racial/ethnic groups. Each SD increase in SBP PRS was associated with a higher risk of the incident CVD (multivariable-adjusted hazards ratio, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.04-1.10]) after controlling for ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations risk scores. Among individuals with a high SBP PRS, low atherosclerotic CVD risk was associated with a 58% lower hazard for incident CVD (multivariable-adjusted hazards ratio, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.36-0.50]) compared to those with high atherosclerotic CVD risk. A similar pattern was noted in intermediate and low genetic risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In a multiancestry cohort of >21 000 US adults, genome-wide SBP PRS was associated with BP traits and adverse cardiovascular events. Adequate control of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors may reduce the predisposition to adverse cardiovascular events among those with a high SBP PRS.

The Polygenic Risk Score Knowledge Base offers a centralized online repository for calculating and contextualizing polygenic risk scores

The process of identifying suitable genome-wide association (GWA) studies and formatting the data to calculate multiple polygenic risk scores on a single genome can be laborious. Here, we present a centralized polygenic risk score calculator currently containing over 250,000 genetic variant associations from the NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog for users to easily calculate sample-specific polygenic risk scores with comparable results to other available tools. Polygenic risk scores are calculated either online through the Polygenic Risk Score Knowledge Base (PRSKB; https://prs.byu.edu ) or via a command-line interface. We report study-specific polygenic risk scores across the UK Biobank, 1000 Genomes, and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), contextualize computed scores, and identify potentially confounding genetic risk factors in ADNI. We introduce a streamlined analysis tool and web interface to calculate and contextualize polygenic risk scores across various studies, which we anticipate will facilitate a wider adaptation of polygenic risk scores in future disease research.