Novel Polygenic Risk Score and Established Clinical Risk Factors for Risk Estimation of Aortic Stenosis

Importance

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have proven to be as strong as or stronger than established clinical risk factors for many cardiovascular phenotypes. Whether this is true for aortic stenosis remains unknown.

Objective

To develop a novel aortic stenosis PRS and compare its aortic stenosis risk estimation to established clinical risk factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a longitudinal cohort study using data from the Million Veteran Program (MVP; 2011-2020), UK Biobank (2006-2010), and 6 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials, including DECLARE-TIMI 58 (2013-2018), FOURIER (TIMI 59; 2013-2017), PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (2010-2014), SAVOR-TIMI 53 (2010-2013), SOLID-TIMI 52 (2009-2014), and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (2008-2013), which were a mix of population-based and randomized clinical trials. Individuals from UK Biobank and the MVP meeting a previously validated case/control definition for aortic stenosis were included. All individuals from TIMI trials were included unless they had a documented preexisting aortic valve replacement. Analysis took place from January 2022 to December 2023.

Exposures

PRS for aortic stenosis (developed using data from MVP and validated in UK Biobank) and other previously validated cardiovascular PRSs, defined either as a continuous variable or as low (bottom 20%), intermediate, and high (top 20%), and clinical risk factors.

Main Outcomes

Aortic stenosis (defined using International Classification of Diseases or Current Procedural Terminology codes in UK Biobank and MVP or safety event data in the TIMI trials).

Results

The median (IQR) age in MVP was 67 (57-73) years, and 135 140 of 147 104 participants (92%) were male. The median (IQR) age in the TIMI trials was 66 (54-78) years, and 45 524 of 59 866 participants (71%) were male. The best aortic stenosis PRS incorporated 5 170 041 single-nucleotide variants and was associated with aortic stenosis in both the MVP testing sample (odds ratio, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.37-1.45 per 1 SD PRS; P = 4.6 × 10-116) and TIMI trials (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.27-1.62 per 1 SD PRS; P = 3.2 × 10-9). Among genetic and clinical risk factors, the aortic stenosis PRS performed comparably to most risk factors besides age, and within a given age range, the combination of clinical and genetic risk factors was additive, providing a 3- to 4-fold increased gradient of risk of aortic stenosis. However, the addition of the aortic stenosis PRS to a model including clinical risk factors only improved risk discrimination of aortic stenosis by 0.01 to 0.02 (C index in MVP: 0.78 with clinical risk factors, 0.79 with risk factors and aortic stenosis PRS; C index in TIMI: 0.71 with clinical risk factors, 0.73 with risk factors and aortic stenosis PRS).

Conclusions

This study developed and validated 1 of the first aortic stenosis PRSs. While aortic stenosis genetic risk was independent from clinical risk factors and performed comparably to all other risk factors besides age, genetic risk resulted in only a small improvement in overall aortic stenosis risk discrimination beyond age and clinical risk factors. This work sets the stage for further development of an aortic stenosis PRS.

Major Facilitator Superfamily Domain Containing 5 Inhibition Reduces Lipoprotein(a) Uptake and Calcification in Valvular Heart Disease

BACKGROUND

High circulating levels of Lp(a) (lipoprotein[a]) increase the risk of atherosclerosis and calcific aortic valve disease, affecting millions of patients worldwide. Although atherosclerosis is commonly treated with low-density lipoprotein-targeting therapies, these do not reduce Lp(a) or risk of calcific aortic valve disease, which has no available drug therapies. Targeting Lp(a) production and catabolism may provide therapeutic benefit, but little is known about Lp(a) cellular uptake.

METHODS

Here, unbiased ligand-receptor capture mass spectrometry was used to identify MFSD5 (major facilitator superfamily domain containing 5) as a novel receptor/cofactor involved in Lp(a) uptake.

RESULTS

Reducing MFSD5 expression by a computationally identified small molecule or small interfering RNA suppressed Lp(a) uptake and calcification in primary human valvular endothelial and interstitial cells. MFSD5 variants were associated with aortic stenosis (P=0.027 after multiple hypothesis testing) with evidence suggestive of an interaction with plasma Lp(a) levels.

CONCLUSIONS

MFSD5 knockdown suppressing human valvular cell Lp(a) uptake and calcification, along with meta-analysis of MFSD5 variants associating with aortic stenosis, supports further preclinical assessment of MFSD5 in cardiovascular diseases, the leading cause of death worldwide.

Bayesian multivariate genetic analysis improves translational insights

While lipid traits are known essential mediators of cardiovascular disease, few approaches have taken advantage of their shared genetic effects. We apply a Bayesian multivariate size estimator, mash, to GWAS of four lipid traits in the Million Veterans Program (MVP) and provide posterior mean and local false sign rates for all effects. These estimates borrow information across traits to improve effect size accuracy. We show that controlling local false sign rates accurately and powerfully identifies replicable genetic associations and that multivariate control furthers the ability to explain complex diseases. Our application yields high concordance between independent datasets, more accurately prioritizes causal genes, and significantly improves polygenic prediction beyond state-of-the-art methods by up to 59% for lipid traits. The use of Bayesian multivariate genetic shrinkage has yet to be applied to human quantitative trait GWAS results, and we present a staged approach to prediction on a polygenic scale.

WHOLE GENOME SEQUENCING ANALYSIS OF BODY MASS INDEX IDENTIFIES NOVEL AFRICAN ANCESTRY-SPECIFIC RISK ALLELE

Obesity is a major public health crisis associated with high mortality rates. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) investigating body mass index (BMI) have largely relied on imputed data from European individuals. This study leveraged whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data from 88,873 participants from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Program, of which 51% were of non-European population groups. We discovered 18 BMI-associated signals (P < 5 × 10-9). Notably, we identified and replicated a novel low frequency single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in MTMR3 that was common in individuals of African descent. Using a diverse study population, we further identified two novel secondary signals in known BMI loci and pinpointed two likely causal variants in the POC5 and DMD loci. Our work demonstrates the benefits of combining WGS and diverse cohorts in expanding current catalog of variants and genes confer risk for obesity, bringing us one step closer to personalized medicine.

Diversity and Scale: Genetic Architecture of 2,068 Traits in the VA Million Veteran Program

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have underrepresented individuals from non-European populations, impeding progress in characterizing the genetic architecture and consequences of health and disease traits. To address this, we present a population-stratified phenome-wide GWAS followed by a multi-population meta-analysis for 2,068 traits derived from electronic health records of 635,969 participants in the Million Veteran Program (MVP), a longitudinal cohort study of diverse U.S. Veterans genetically similar to the respective African (121,177), Admixed American (59,048), East Asian (6,702), and European (449,042) superpopulations defined by the 1000 Genomes Project. We identified 38,270 independent variants associating with one or more traits at experiment-wide P < 4.6 × 10 - 11 significance; fine-mapping 6,318 signals identified from 613 traits to single-variant resolution. Among these, a third (2,069) of the associations were found only among participants genetically similar to non-European reference populations, demonstrating the importance of expanding diversity in genetic studies. Our work provides a comprehensive atlas of phenome-wide genetic associations for future studies dissecting the architecture of complex traits in diverse populations.

Dyslipidemia, inflammation, calcification, and adiposity in aortic stenosis: a genome-wide study

AIMS

Although highly heritable, the genetic etiology of calcific aortic stenosis (AS) remains incompletely understood. The aim of this study was to discover novel genetic contributors to AS and to integrate functional, expression, and cross-phenotype data to identify mechanisms of AS.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A genome-wide meta-analysis of 11.6 million variants in 10 cohorts involving 653 867 European ancestry participants (13 765 cases) was performed. Seventeen loci were associated with AS at P ≤ 5 × 10-8, of which 15 replicated in an independent cohort of 90 828 participants (7111 cases), including CELSR2-SORT1, NLRP6, and SMC2. A genetic risk score comprised of the index variants was associated with AS [odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation, 1.31; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26-1.35; P = 2.7 × 10-51] and aortic valve calcium (OR per standard deviation, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.08-1.37; P = 1.4 × 10-3), after adjustment for known risk factors. A phenome-wide association study indicated multiple associations with coronary artery disease, apolipoprotein B, and triglycerides. Mendelian randomization supported a causal role for apolipoprotein B-containing lipoprotein particles in AS (OR per g/L of apolipoprotein B, 3.85; 95% CI, 2.90-5.12; P = 2.1 × 10-20) and replicated previous findings of causality for lipoprotein(a) (OR per natural logarithm, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.17-1.23; P = 4.8 × 10-73) and body mass index (OR per kg/m2, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.9; P = 1.9 × 10-12). Colocalization analyses using the GTEx database identified a role for differential expression of the genes LPA, SORT1, ACTR2, NOTCH4, IL6R, and FADS.

CONCLUSION

Dyslipidemia, inflammation, calcification, and adiposity play important roles in the etiology of AS, implicating novel treatments and prevention strategies.

Multiancestry Genome-Wide Association Study of Aortic Stenosis Identifies Multiple Novel Loci in the Million Veteran Program

BACKGROUND

Calcific aortic stenosis (CAS) is the most common valvular heart disease in older adults and has no effective preventive therapies. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can identify genes influencing disease and may help prioritize therapeutic targets for CAS.

METHODS

We performed a GWAS and gene association study of 14 451 patients with CAS and 398 544 controls in the Million Veteran Program. Replication was performed in the Million Veteran Program, Penn Medicine Biobank, Mass General Brigham Biobank, BioVU, and BioMe, totaling 12 889 cases and 348 094 controls. Causal genes were prioritized from genome-wide significant variants using polygenic priority score gene localization, expression quantitative trait locus colocalization, and nearest gene methods. CAS genetic architecture was compared with that of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Causal inference for cardiometabolic biomarkers in CAS was performed using Mendelian randomization and genome-wide significant loci were characterized further through phenome-wide association study.

RESULTS

We identified 23 genome-wide significant lead variants in our GWAS representing 17 unique genomic regions. Of the 23 lead variants, 14 were significant in replication, representing 11 unique genomic regions. Five replicated genomic regions were previously known risk loci for CAS (PALMD, TEX41, IL6, LPA, FADS) and 6 were novel (CEP85L, FTO, SLMAP, CELSR2, MECOM, CDAN1). Two novel lead variants were associated in non-White individuals (P<0.05): rs12740374 (CELSR2) in Black and Hispanic individuals and rs1522387 (SLMAP) in Black individuals. Of the 14 replicated lead variants, only 2 (rs10455872 [LPA], rs12740374 [CELSR2]) were also significant in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease GWAS. In Mendelian randomization, lipoprotein(a) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were both associated with CAS, but the association between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and CAS was attenuated when adjusting for lipoprotein(a). Phenome-wide association study highlighted varying degrees of pleiotropy, including between CAS and obesity at the FTO locus. However, the FTO locus remained associated with CAS after adjusting for body mass index and maintained a significant independent effect on CAS in mediation analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

We performed a multiancestry GWAS in CAS and identified 6 novel genomic regions in the disease. Secondary analyses highlighted the roles of lipid metabolism, inflammation, cellular senescence, and adiposity in the pathobiology of CAS and clarified the shared and differential genetic architectures of CAS with atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases.

Distribution, Determinants and Normal Reference Values of Aortic Arch Width: Thoracic Aortic Geometry in the Framingham Heart Study

Study Objective

Aortic arch geometry changes with age, including an increase in aortic arch width (AAW). High AAW is a predictor of incident adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, but its distribution and determinants are unknown. We hypothesized that traditional CVD risk factors, in addition to age, are associated with increased AAW in community-dwelling adults.

Study Design

Framingham Offspring and Third Generation cohort participants (N=3026, 52% Men) underwent thoracic multidetector computed tomography (MDCT). A referent group (733M, 738W) free of clinical CVD, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking, and diabetes was used to generate sex and 10-year age-group specific upper 90th percentile (P90) cut-points for AAW. AAW was measured as the distance between the cross-sectional centroids of the ascending and descending thoracic aorta. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify clinical correlates of high AAW (≥referent P90) in the overall study group.

Results

Among referent participants, AAW increased with greater age-group, p for trend <0.0001 in each sex. Overall and within each age group, AAW was greater in men than women, p<0.0001 all comparisons. Across all participants, high AAW was associated with greater age (odds ratio, OR=1.34/10y; 95% confidence interval 1.20 - 1.50), body surface area (OR=1.97/SD; 1.62 - 2.40), diastolic blood pressure (OR=1.59/10mmHg; 1.40 - 1.81), pack-years smoked (OR=1.07; 1.02 - 1.13), and prevalent CVD (OR=1.64; 1.08 - 2.49).

Conclusion

AAW increases with greater age, body size, diastolic blood pressure and burden of smoking. High AAW (≥referent P90) is also associated with prevalent (clinically apparent) CVD. AAW is often seen on and easily measured from tomographic thoracic images and has prognostic value.

Identification of Novel, Replicable Genetic Risk Loci for Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors Among US Military Veterans

Importance

Suicide is a leading cause of death; however, the molecular genetic basis of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (SITB) remains unknown.

Objective

To identify novel, replicable genomic risk loci for SITB.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This genome-wide association study included 633 778 US military veterans with and without SITB, as identified through electronic health records. GWAS was performed separately by ancestry, controlling for sex, age, and genetic substructure. Cross-ancestry risk loci were identified through meta-analysis. Study enrollment began in 2011 and is ongoing. Data were analyzed from November 2021 to August 2022.

Main Outcome and Measures

SITB.

Results

A total of 633 778 US military veterans were included in the analysis (57 152 [9%] female; 121 118 [19.1%] African ancestry, 8285 [1.3%] Asian ancestry, 452 767 [71.4%] European ancestry, and 51 608 [8.1%] Hispanic ancestry), including 121 211 individuals with SITB (19.1%). Meta-analysis identified more than 200 GWS (P < 5 × 10-8) cross-ancestry risk single-nucleotide variants for SITB concentrated in 7 regions on chromosomes 2, 6, 9, 11, 14, 16, and 18. Top single-nucleotide variants were largely intronic in nature; 5 were independently replicated in ISGC, including rs6557168 in ESR1, rs12808482 in DRD2, rs77641763 in EXD3, rs10671545 in DCC, and rs36006172 in TRAF3. Associations for FBXL19 and AC018880.2 were not replicated. Gene-based analyses implicated 24 additional GWS cross-ancestry risk genes, including FURIN, TSNARE1, and the NCAM1-TTC12-ANKK1-DRD2 gene cluster. Cross-ancestry enrichment analyses revealed significant enrichment for expression in brain and pituitary tissue, synapse and ubiquitination processes, amphetamine addiction, parathyroid hormone synthesis, axon guidance, and dopaminergic pathways. Seven other unique European ancestry-specific GWS loci were identified, 2 of which (POM121L2 and METTL15/LINC02758) were replicated. Two additional GWS ancestry-specific loci were identified within the African ancestry (PET112/GATB) and Hispanic ancestry (intergenic locus on chromosome 4) subsets, both of which were replicated. No GWS loci were identified within the Asian ancestry subset; however, significant enrichment was observed for axon guidance, cyclic adenosine monophosphate signaling, focal adhesion, glutamatergic synapse, and oxytocin signaling pathways across all ancestries. Within the European ancestry subset, genetic correlations (r > 0.75) were observed between the SITB phenotype and a suicide attempt-only phenotype, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder. Additionally, polygenic risk score analyses revealed that the Million Veteran Program polygenic risk score had nominally significant main effects in 2 independent samples of veterans of European and African ancestry.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this analysis may advance understanding of the molecular genetic basis of SITB and provide evidence for ESR1, DRD2, TRAF3, and DCC as cross-ancestry candidate risk genes. More work is needed to replicate these findings and to determine if and how these genes might impact clinical care.

Genetic architecture of heart failure with preserved versus reduced ejection fraction

Pharmacologic clinical trials for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction have been largely unsuccessful as compared to those for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Whether differences in the genetic underpinnings of these major heart failure subtypes may provide insights into the disparate outcomes of clinical trials remains unknown. We utilize a large, uniformly phenotyped, single cohort of heart failure sub-classified into heart failure with reduced and with preserved ejection fractions based on current clinical definitions, to conduct detailed genetic analyses of the two heart failure sub-types. We find different genetic architectures and distinct genetic association profiles between heart failure with reduced and with preserved ejection fraction suggesting differences in underlying pathobiology. The modest genetic discovery for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (one locus) compared to heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (13 loci) despite comparable sample sizes indicates that clinically defined heart failure with preserved ejection fraction likely represents the amalgamation of several, distinct pathobiological entities. Development of consensus sub-phenotyping of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is paramount to better dissect the underlying genetic signals and contributors to this highly prevalent condition.

A MUC5B Gene Polymorphism, rs35705950-T, Confers Protective Effects Against COVID-19 Hospitalization but Not Severe Disease or Mortality

Rationale: A common MUC5B gene polymorphism, rs35705950-T, is associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but its role in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection and disease severity is unclear. Objectives: To assess whether rs35705950-T confers differential risk for clinical outcomes associated with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection among participants in the Million Veteran Program (MVP). Methods: The MUC5B rs35705950-T allele was directly genotyped among MVP participants; clinical events and comorbidities were extracted from the electronic health records. Associations between the incidence or severity of COVID-19 and rs35705950-T were analyzed within each ancestry group in the MVP followed by transancestry meta-analysis. Replication and joint meta-analysis were conducted using summary statistics from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (HGI). Sensitivity analyses with adjustment for additional covariates (body mass index, Charlson comorbidity index, smoking, asbestosis, rheumatoid arthritis with interstitial lung disease, and IPF) and associations with post-COVID-19 pneumonia were performed in MVP subjects. Measurements and Main Results: The rs35705950-T allele was associated with fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations in transancestry meta-analyses within the MVP (N_cases = 4,325; N_controls = 507,640; OR = 0.89 [0.82-0.97]; P = 6.86 × 10^-3) and joint meta-analyses with the HGI (N_cases = 13,320; N_controls = 1,508,841; OR, 0.90 [0.86-0.95]; P = 8.99 × 10^-5). The rs35705950-T allele was not associated with reduced COVID-19 positivity in transancestry meta-analysis within the MVP (N_cases = 19,168/N_controls = 492,854; OR, 0.98 [0.95-1.01]; P = 0.06) but was nominally significant (P < 0.05) in the joint meta-analysis with the HGI (N_cases = 44,820; N_controls = 1,775,827; OR, 0.97 [0.95-1.00]; P = 0.03). Associations were not observed with severe outcomes or mortality. Among individuals of European ancestry in the MVP, rs35705950-T was associated with fewer post-COVID-19 pneumonia events (OR, 0.82 [0.72-0.93]; P = 0.001). Conclusions: The MUC5B variant rs35705950-T may confer protection in COVID-19 hospitalizations.

Cross-Ancestry Investigation of Venous Thromboembolism Genomic Predictors

BACKGROUND

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a life-threatening vascular event with environmental and genetic determinants. Recent VTE genome-wide association studies (GWAS) meta-analyses involved nearly 30 000 VTE cases and identified up to 40 genetic loci associated with VTE risk, including loci not previously suspected to play a role in hemostasis. The aim of our research was to expand discovery of new genetic loci associated with VTE by using cross-ancestry genomic resources.

METHODS

We present new cross-ancestry meta-analyzed GWAS results involving up to 81 669 VTE cases from 30 studies, with replication of novel loci in independent populations and loci characterization through in silico genomic interrogations.

RESULTS

In our genetic discovery effort that included 55 330 participants with VTE (47 822 European, 6320 African, and 1188 Hispanic ancestry), we identified 48 novel associations, of which 34 were replicated after correction for multiple testing. In our combined discovery-replication analysis (81 669 VTE participants) and ancestry-stratified meta-analyses (European, African, and Hispanic), we identified another 44 novel associations, which are new candidate VTE-associated loci requiring replication. In total, across all GWAS meta-analyses, we identified 135 independent genomic loci significantly associated with VTE risk. A genetic risk score of the significantly associated loci in Europeans identified a 6-fold increase in risk for those in the top 1% of scores compared with those with average scores. We also identified 31 novel transcript associations in transcriptome-wide association studies and 8 novel candidate genes with protein quantitative-trait locus Mendelian randomization analyses. In silico interrogations of hemostasis and hematology traits and a large phenome-wide association analysis of the 135 GWAS loci provided insights to biological pathways contributing to VTE, with some loci contributing to VTE through well-characterized coagulation pathways and others providing new data on the role of hematology traits, particularly platelet function. Many of the replicated loci are outside of known or currently hypothesized pathways to thrombosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses identified new loci associated with VTE. These findings highlight new pathways to thrombosis and provide novel molecules that may be useful in the development of improved antithrombosis treatments.

Genetic and clinical determinants of abdominal aortic diameter: genome-wide association studies, exome array data and Mendelian randomization study

Progressive dilation of the infrarenal aortic diameter is a consequence of the ageing process and is considered the main determinant of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). We aimed to investigate the genetic and clinical determinants of abdominal aortic diameter (AAD). We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in 10 cohorts (n = 13 542) imputed to the 1000 Genome Project reference panel including 12 815 subjects in the discovery phase and 727 subjects [Partners Biobank cohort 1 (PBIO)] as replication. Maximum anterior-posterior diameter of the infrarenal aorta was used as AAD. We also included exome array data (n = 14 480) from seven epidemiologic studies. Single-variant and gene-based associations were done using SeqMeta package. A Mendelian randomization analysis was applied to investigate the causal effect of a number of clinical risk factors on AAD. In genome-wide association study (GWAS) on AAD, rs74448815 in the intronic region of LDLRAD4 reached genome-wide significance (beta = -0.02, SE = 0.004, P-value = 2.10 × 10-8). The association replicated in the PBIO1 cohort (P-value = 8.19 × 10-4). In exome-array single-variant analysis (P-value threshold = 9 × 10-7), the lowest P-value was found for rs239259 located in SLC22A20 (beta = 0.007, P-value = 1.2 × 10-5). In the gene-based analysis (P-value threshold = 1.85 × 10-6), PCSK5 showed an association with AAD (P-value = 8.03 × 10-7). Furthermore, in Mendelian randomization analyses, we found evidence for genetic association of pulse pressure (beta = -0.003, P-value = 0.02), triglycerides (beta = -0.16, P-value = 0.008) and height (beta = 0.03, P-value < 0.0001), known risk factors for AAA, consistent with a causal association with AAD. Our findings point to new biology as well as highlighting gene regions in mechanisms that have previously been implicated in the genetics of other vascular diseases.

Relation of MRI Aortic Wall Area and Plaque to Incident Cardiovascular Events: The Framingham Heart Study

Background Arterial arteriosclerosis and atherosclerosis reflect vascular disease, the subclinical detection of which allows opportunity for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. Larger cohort studies simultaneously quantifying anatomic thoracic and abdominal aortic pathologic abnormalities are lacking in the literature. Purpose To investigate the association of aortic wall area (AWA) and atherosclerotic plaque presence and burden as measured on MRI scans with incident CVD in a community sample. Materials and Methods In this prospective cohort study, participants in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort without prevalent CVD underwent 1.5-T MRI (between 2002-2005) of the descending thoracic and abdominal aorta with electrocardiogram-gated axial T2-weighted black-blood acquisitions. The wall thickness of the thoracic aorta was measured at the pulmonary bifurcation level and used to calculate the AWA as the difference between cross-sectional vessel area and lumen area. For primary or secondary analyses, multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the association of aortic MRI measures with risk of first-incident CVD events or stroke and coronary heart disease, respectively. Results In 1513 study participants (mean age, 64 years ± 9 [SD]; 842 women [56%]), 223 CVD events occurred during follow-up (median, 13.1 years), of which 97 were major events (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or CVD death). In multivariable analysis, thoracic AWA and prevalent thoracic plaque were associated with incident CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.20 per SD unit [95% CI: 1.05, 1.37] [P = .006] and HR, 1.63 [95% CI: 1.12, 2.35] [P = .01], respectively). AWA and prevalent thoracic plaque were associated with increased hazards: 1.32 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.62; P = .01) and 2.20 (95% CI: 1.28, 3.79; P = .005), for stroke and coronary heart disease, respectively. Conclusion In middle-aged community-dwelling adults, thoracic aortic wall area (AWA), plaque prevalence, and plaque volumes measured with MRI were independently associated with incident cardiovascular disease, with AWA associated in particular with stroke, and plaque associated with coronary heart disease. Clinical trial registration no. NCT00041418 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Peshock in this issue.

Association of Kidney Comorbidities and Acute Kidney Failure With Unfavorable Outcomes After COVID-19 in Individuals With the Sickle Cell Trait

Importance

Sickle cell trait (SCT), defined as the presence of 1 hemoglobin beta sickle allele (rs334-T) and 1 normal beta allele, is prevalent in millions of people in the US, particularly in individuals of African and Hispanic ancestry. However, the association of SCT with COVID-19 is unclear.

Objective

To assess the association of SCT with the prepandemic health conditions in participants of the Million Veteran Program (MVP) and to assess the severity and sequelae of COVID-19.

Design, Setting, and Participants

COVID-19 clinical data include 2729 persons with SCT, of whom 353 had COVID-19, and 129 848 SCT-negative individuals, of whom 13 488 had COVID-19. Associations between SCT and COVID-19 outcomes were examined using firth regression. Analyses were performed by ancestry and adjusted for sex, age, age squared, and ancestral principal components to account for population stratification. Data for the study were collected between March 2020 and February 2021.

Exposures

The hemoglobin beta S (HbS) allele (rs334-T).

Main Outcomes and Measures

This study evaluated 4 COVID-19 outcomes derived from the World Health Organization severity scale and phenotypes derived from International Classification of Diseases codes in the electronic health records.

Results

Of the 132 577 MVP participants with COVID-19 data, mean (SD) age at the index date was 64.8 (13.1) years. Sickle cell trait was present in 7.8% of individuals of African ancestry and associated with a history of chronic kidney disease, diabetic kidney disease, hypertensive kidney disease, pulmonary embolism, and cerebrovascular disease. Among the 4 clinical outcomes of COVID-19, SCT was associated with an increased COVID-19 mortality in individuals of African ancestry (n = 3749; odds ratio, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.13 to 2.77; P = .01). In the 60 days following COVID-19, SCT was associated with an increased incidence of acute kidney failure. A counterfactual mediation framework estimated that on average, 20.7% (95% CI, -3.8% to 56.0%) of the total effect of SCT on COVID-19 fatalities was due to acute kidney failure.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this genetic association study, SCT was associated with preexisting kidney comorbidities, increased COVID-19 mortality, and kidney morbidity.

Genome-wide and phenome-wide analysis of ideal cardiovascular health in the VA Million Veteran Program

BACKGROUND

Genetic studies may help identify causal pathways; therefore, we sought to identify genetic determinants of ideal CVH and their association with CVD outcomes in the multi-population Veteran Administration Million Veteran Program.

METHODS

An ideal health score (IHS) was calculated from 3 clinical factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, and blood glucose levels) and 3 behavioral factors (smoking status, physical activity, and BMI), ascertained at baseline. Multi-population genome-wide association study (GWAS) was performed on IHS and binary ideal health using linear and logistic regression, respectively. Using the genome-wide significant SNPs from the IHS GWAS, we created a weighted IHS polygenic risk score (PRSIHS) which was used (i) to conduct a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of associations between PRSIHS and ICD-9 phenotypes and (ii) to further test for associations with mortality and selected CVD outcomes using logistic and Cox regression and, as an instrumental variable, in Mendelian Randomization.

RESULTS

The discovery and replication cohorts consisted of 142,404 (119,129 European American (EUR); 16,495 African American (AFR)), and 45,766 (37,646 EUR; 5,366 AFR) participants, respectively. The mean age was 65.8 years (SD = 11.2) and 92.7% were male. Overall, 4.2% exhibited ideal CVH based on the clinical and behavioral factors. In the multi-population meta-analysis, variants at 17 loci were associated with IHS and each had known GWAS associations with multiple components of the IHS. PheWAS analysis in 456,026 participants showed that increased PRSIHS was associated with a lower odds ratio for many CVD outcomes and risk factors. Both IHS and PRSIHS measures of ideal CVH were associated with significantly less CVD outcomes and CVD mortality.

CONCLUSION

A set of high interest genetic variants contribute to the presence of ideal CVH in a multi-ethnic cohort of US Veterans. Genetically influenced ideal CVH is associated with lower odds of CVD outcomes and mortality.

APOL1 Risk Variants, Acute Kidney Injury, and Death in Participants With African Ancestry Hospitalized With COVID-19 From the Million Veteran Program

IMPORTANCE

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) confers significant risk of acute kidney injury (AKI). Patients with COVID-19 with AKI have high mortality rates.

OBJECTIVE

Individuals with African ancestry with 2 copies of apolipoprotein L1 (APOL1) variants G1 or G2 (high-risk group) have significantly increased rates of kidney disease. We tested the hypothesis that the APOL1 high-risk group is associated with a higher-risk of COVID-19-associated AKI and death.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study included 990 participants with African ancestry enrolled in the Million Veteran Program who were hospitalized with COVID-19 between March 2020 and January 2021 with available genetic information.

EXPOSURES

The primary exposure was having 2 APOL1 risk variants (RV) (APOL1 high-risk group), compared with having 1 or 0 risk variants (APOL1 low-risk group).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was AKI. The secondary outcomes were stages of AKI severity and death. Multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusted for preexisting comorbidities, medications, and inpatient AKI risk factors; 10 principal components of ancestry were performed to study these associations. We performed a subgroup analysis in individuals with normal kidney function prior to hospitalization (estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2).

RESULTS

Of the 990 participants with African ancestry, 905 (91.4%) were male with a median (IQR) age of 68 (60-73) years. Overall, 392 (39.6%) patients developed AKI, 141 (14%) developed stages 2 or 3 AKI, 28 (3%) required dialysis, and 122 (12.3%) died. One hundred twenty-five (12.6%) of the participants were in the APOL1 high-risk group. Patients categorized as APOL1 high-risk group had significantly higher odds of AKI (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.95; 95% CI, 1.27-3.02; P = .002), higher AKI severity stages (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.37-2.99; P < .001), and death (OR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.22-3.72; P = .007). The association with AKI persisted in the subgroup with normal kidney function (OR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.15-3.26; P = .01). Data analysis was conducted between February 2021 and April 2021.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of veterans with African ancestry hospitalized with COVID-19 infection, APOL1 kidney risk variants were associated with higher odds of AKI, AKI severity, and death, even among individuals with prior normal kidney function.

Genetic Loci Associated With COVID-19 Positivity and Hospitalization in White, Black, and Hispanic Veterans of the VA Million Veteran Program

SARS-CoV-2 has caused symptomatic COVID-19 and widespread death across the globe. We sought to determine genetic variants contributing to COVID-19 susceptibility and hospitalization in a large biobank linked to a national United States health system. We identified 19,168 (3.7%) lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases among Million Veteran Program participants between March 1, 2020, and February 2, 2021, including 11,778 Whites, 4,893 Blacks, and 2,497 Hispanics. A multi-population genome-wide association study (GWAS) for COVID-19 outcomes identified four independent genetic variants (rs8176719, rs73062389, rs60870724, and rs73910904) contributing to COVID-19 positivity, including one novel locus found exclusively among Hispanics. We replicated eight of nine previously reported genetic associations at an alpha of 0.05 in at least one population-specific or the multi-population meta-analysis for one of the four MVP COVID-19 outcomes. We used rs8176719 and three additional variants to accurately infer ABO blood types. We found that A, AB, and B blood types were associated with testing positive for COVID-19 compared with O blood type with the highest risk for the A blood group. We did not observe any genome-wide significant associations for COVID-19 severity outcomes among those testing positive. Our study replicates prior GWAS findings associated with testing positive for COVID-19 among mostly White samples and extends findings at three loci to Black and Hispanic individuals. We also report a new locus among Hispanics requiring further investigation. These findings may aid in the identification of novel therapeutic agents to decrease the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 across all major ancestral populations.

Matrix Gla Protein Levels Are Associated With Arterial Stiffness and Incident Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

OBJECTIVE

Arterial stiffness is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, including heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). MGP (matrix Gla protein) is implicated in vascular calcification in animal models, and circulating levels of the uncarboxylated, inactive form of MGP (ucMGP) are associated with cardiovascular disease-related and all-cause mortality in human studies. However, the role of MGP in arterial stiffness is uncertain. Approach and Results: We examined the association of ucMGP levels with vascular calcification, arterial stiffness including carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), and incident heart failure in community-dwelling adults from the Framingham Heart Study. To further investigate the link between MGP and arterial stiffness, we compared aortic PWV in age- and sex-matched young (4-month-old) and aged (10-month-old) wild-type and Mgp+/- mice. Among 7066 adults, we observed significant associations between higher levels of ucMGP and measures of arterial stiffness, including higher PWV and pulse pressure. Longitudinal analyses demonstrated an association between higher ucMGP levels and future increases in systolic blood pressure and incident HFpEF. Aortic PWV was increased in older, but not young, female Mgp+/- mice compared with wild-type mice, and this augmentation in PWV was associated with increased aortic elastin fiber fragmentation and collagen accumulation.

CONCLUSIONS

This translational study demonstrates an association between ucMGP levels and arterial stiffness and future HFpEF in a large observational study, findings that are substantiated by experimental studies showing that mice with Mgp heterozygosity develop arterial stiffness. Taken together, these complementary study designs suggest a potential role of therapeutically targeting MGP in HFpEF.

Multiethnic Genome-Wide Association Study of Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Individuals With Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) are measures of subclinical atherosclerosis in asymptomatic individuals and strong risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is an independent cardiovascular disease risk factor that accelerates atherosclerosis.

METHODS

We performed meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies in up to 2500 T2D individuals of European ancestry (EA) and 1590 T2D individuals of African ancestry with or without exclusion of prevalent cardiovascular disease, for CAC measured by cardiac computed tomography, and 3608 individuals of EA and 838 individuals of African ancestry with T2D for cIMT measured by ultrasonography within the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) Consortium.

RESULTS

We replicated 2 loci (rs9369640 and rs9349379 near PHACTR1 and rs10757278 near CDKN2B) for CAC and one locus for cIMT (rs7412 and rs445925 near APOE-APOC1) that were previously reported in the general EA populations. We identified one novel CAC locus (rs8000449 near CSNK1A1L/LINC00547/POSTN at 13q13.3) at P=2.0×10-8 in EA. No additional loci were identified with the meta-analyses of EA and African ancestry. The expression quantitative trait loci analysis with nearby expressed genes derived from arterial wall and metabolic tissues from the Genotype-Tissue Expression project pinpoints POSTN, encoding a matricellular protein involved in bone formation and bone matrix organization, as the potential candidate gene at this locus. In addition, we found significant associations (P<3.1×10-4) for 3 previously reported coronary artery disease loci for these subclinical atherosclerotic phenotypes (rs2891168 near CDKN2B-AS1 and rs11170820 near FLJ12825 for CAC, and rs7412 near APOE for cIMT).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide potential biological mechanisms that could link CAC and cIMT to increased cardiovascular disease risk in individuals with T2D.

Allele-specific variation at APOE increases nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and obesity but decreases risk of Alzheimer's disease and myocardial infarction

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of chronic liver disease and is highly correlated with metabolic disease. NAFLD results from environmental exposures acting on a susceptible polygenic background. This study performed the largest multiethnic investigation of exonic variation associated with NAFLD and correlated metabolic traits and diseases. An exome array meta-analysis was carried out among eight multiethnic population-based cohorts (n = 16 492) with computed tomography (CT) measured hepatic steatosis. A fixed effects meta-analysis identified five exome-wide significant loci (P < 5.30 × 10-7); including a novel signal near TOMM40/APOE. Joint analysis of TOMM40/APOE variants revealed the TOMM40 signal was attributed to APOE rs429358-T; APOE rs7412 was not associated with liver attenuation. Moreover, rs429358-T was associated with higher serum alanine aminotransferase, liver steatosis, cirrhosis, triglycerides and obesity; as well as, lower cholesterol and decreased risk of myocardial infarction and Alzheimer's disease (AD) in phenome-wide association analyses in the Michigan Genomics Initiative, United Kingdom Biobank and/or public datasets. These results implicate APOE in imaging-based identification of NAFLD. This association may or may not translate to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis; however, these results indicate a significant association with advanced liver disease and hepatic cirrhosis. These findings highlight allelic heterogeneity at the APOE locus and demonstrate an inverse link between NAFLD and AD at the exome level in the largest analysis to date.

Phenome-wide association of 1809 phenotypes and COVID-19 disease progression in the Veterans Health Administration Million Veteran Program

BACKGROUND

The risk factors associated with the stages of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) disease progression are not well known. We aim to identify risk factors specific to each state of COVID-19 progression from SARS-CoV-2 infection through death.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 648,202 participants from the Veteran Affairs Million Veteran Program (2011-). We identified characteristics and 1,809 ICD code-based phenotypes from the electronic health record. We used logistic regression to examine the association of age, sex, body mass index (BMI), race, and prevalent phenotypes to the stages of COVID-19 disease progression: infection, hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 30-day mortality (separate models for each). Models were adjusted for age, sex, race, ethnicity, number of visit months and ICD codes, state infection rate and controlled for multiple testing using false discovery rate (≤0.1). As of August 10, 2020, 5,929 individuals were SARS-CoV-2 positive and among those, 1,463 (25%) were hospitalized, 579 (10%) were in ICU, and 398 (7%) died. We observed a lower risk in women vs. men for ICU and mortality (Odds Ratio (95% CI): 0.48 (0.30-0.76) and 0.59 (0.31-1.15), respectively) and a higher risk in Black vs. Other race patients for hospitalization and ICU (OR (95%CI): 1.53 (1.32-1.77) and 1.63 (1.32-2.02), respectively). We observed an increased risk of all COVID-19 disease states with older age and BMI ≥35 vs. 20-24 kg/m2. Renal failure, respiratory failure, morbid obesity, acid-base balance disorder, white blood cell diseases, hydronephrosis and bacterial infections were associated with an increased risk of ICU admissions; sepsis, chronic skin ulcers, acid-base balance disorder and acidosis were associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, higher BMI, males and patients with a history of respiratory, kidney, bacterial or metabolic comorbidities experienced greater COVID-19 severity. Future studies to investigate the underlying mechanisms associated with these phenotype clusters and COVID-19 are warranted.

Associations of biogeographic ancestry with hypertension traits

OBJECTIVES

Ethnic disparities in hypertension prevalence are well documented, though the influence of genetic ancestry is unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate associations of geographic genetic ancestry with hypertension and underlying blood pressure traits.

METHODS

We tested genetically inferred ancestry proportions from five 1000 Genomes reference populations (GBR, PEL, YRI, CHB, and LWK) for association with four continuous blood pressure (BP) traits (SBP, DBP, PP, MAP) and the dichotomous outcomes hypertension and apparent treatment-resistant hypertension in 220 495 European American, 59 927 African American, and 21 273 Hispanic American individuals from the Million Veteran Program. Ethnicity stratified results were meta-analyzed to report effect estimates per 10% difference for a given ancestry proportion in all samples.

RESULTS

Percentage GBR was negatively associated with BP (P = 2.13 × 10-19, 7.92 × 10-8, 4.41 × 10-11, and 3.57 × 10-13 for SBP, DBP, PP, and MAP, respectively; coefficient range -0.10 to -0.21 mmHg per 10% increase in ancestry proportion) and was protective against hypertension [P = 2.59 × 10-5, odds ratio (OR) = 0.98] relative to other ancestries. YRI percentage was positively associated with BP (P = 1.63 × 10-23, 1.94 × 10-26, 0.012, and 3.26 × 10-29 for SBP, DBP, PP, and MAP, respectively; coefficient range 0.06-0.32 mmHg per 10% increase in ancestry proportion) and was positively associated with hypertension risk (P = 3.10 × 10-11, OR = 1.04) and apparent treatment-resistant hypertension risk (P = 1.86 × 10-4, OR = 1.04) compared with other ancestries. Percentage PEL was inversely associated with DBP (P = 2.84 × 10-5, beta = -0.11 mmHg per 10% increase in ancestry proportion).

CONCLUSION

These results demonstrate that risk for BP traits varies significantly by genetic ancestry. Our findings provide insight into the geographic origin of genetic factors underlying hypertension risk and establish that a portion of BP trait ethnic disparities are because of genetic differences between ancestries.

Comparison of family health history in surveys vs electronic health record data mapped to the observational medical outcomes partnership data model in the All of Us Research Program

OBJECTIVE

Family health history is important to clinical care and precision medicine. Prior studies show gaps in data collected from patient surveys and electronic health records (EHRs). The All of Us Research Program collects family history from participants via surveys and EHRs. This Demonstration Project aims to evaluate availability of family health history information within the publicly available data from All of Us and to characterize the data from both sources.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Surveys were completed by participants on an electronic portal. EHR data was mapped to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership data model. We used descriptive statistics to perform exploratory analysis of the data, including evaluating a list of medically actionable genetic disorders. We performed a subanalysis on participants who had both survey and EHR data.

RESULTS

There were 54 872 participants with family history data. Of those, 26% had EHR data only, 63% had survey only, and 10.5% had data from both sources. There were 35 217 participants with reported family history of a medically actionable genetic disorder (9% from EHR only, 89% from surveys, and 2% from both). In the subanalysis, we found inconsistencies between the surveys and EHRs. More details came from surveys. When both mentioned a similar disease, the source of truth was unclear.

CONCLUSIONS

Compiling data from both surveys and EHR can provide a more comprehensive source for family health history, but informatics challenges and opportunities exist. Access to more complete understanding of a person's family health history may provide opportunities for precision medicine.

A Noncoding Variant Near PPP1R3B Promotes Liver Glycogen Storage and MetS, but Protects Against Myocardial Infarction

CONTEXT

Glycogen storage diseases are rare. Increased glycogen in the liver results in increased attenuation.

OBJECTIVE

Investigate the association and function of a noncoding region associated with liver attenuation but not histologic nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

DESIGN

Genetics of Obesity-associated Liver Disease Consortium.

SETTING

Population-based.

MAIN OUTCOME

Computed tomography measured liver attenuation.

RESULTS

Carriers of rs4841132-A (frequency 2%-19%) do not show increased hepatic steatosis; they have increased liver attenuation indicative of increased glycogen deposition. rs4841132 falls in a noncoding RNA LOC157273 ~190 kb upstream of PPP1R3B. We demonstrate that rs4841132-A increases PPP1R3B through a cis genetic effect. Using CRISPR/Cas9 we engineered a 105-bp deletion including rs4841132-A in human hepatocarcinoma cells that increases PPP1R3B, decreases LOC157273, and increases glycogen perfectly mirroring the human disease. Overexpression of PPP1R3B or knockdown of LOC157273 increased glycogen but did not result in decreased LOC157273 or increased PPP1R3B, respectively, suggesting that the effects may not all occur via affecting RNA levels. Based on electronic health record (EHR) data, rs4841132-A associates with all components of the metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, rs4841132-A associated with decreased low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and risk for myocardial infarction (MI). A metabolic signature for rs4841132-A includes increased glycine, lactate, triglycerides, and decreased acetoacetate and beta-hydroxybutyrate.

CONCLUSIONS

These results show that rs4841132-A promotes a hepatic glycogen storage disease by increasing PPP1R3B and decreasing LOC157273. rs4841132-A promotes glycogen accumulation and development of MetS but lowers LDL cholesterol and risk for MI. These results suggest that elevated hepatic glycogen is one cause of MetS that does not invariably promote MI.

Prescription Fill Patterns for Commonly Used Drugs During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

This pharmacoepidemiology study uses US pharmacy data to compare prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine and azithromycin in February to April 2020 vs 2019, and vs the top 10 most commonly prescribed drugs in the same year, including angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers.

Rural-Urban Differences in Cardiovascular Mortality in the US, 1999-2017

This study used data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER database to examined temporal trends in cardiovascular disease age-adjusted mortality rates overall and across subgroups stratified by rural-urban area designation in the US.

Minority-centric meta-analyses of blood lipid levels identify novel loci in the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) study

Lipid levels are important markers for the development of cardio-metabolic diseases. Although hundreds of associated loci have been identified through genetic association studies, the contribution of genetic factors to variation in lipids is not fully understood, particularly in U.S. minority groups. We performed genome-wide association analyses for four lipid traits in over 45,000 ancestrally diverse participants from the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study, followed by a meta-analysis with several European ancestry studies. We identified nine novel lipid loci, five of which showed evidence of replication in independent studies. Furthermore, we discovered one novel gene in a PrediXcan analysis, minority-specific independent signals at eight previously reported loci, and potential functional variants at two known loci through fine-mapping. Systematic examination of known lipid loci revealed smaller effect estimates in African American and Hispanic ancestry populations than those in Europeans, and better performance of polygenic risk scores based on minority-specific effect estimates. Our findings provide new insight into the genetic architecture of lipid traits and highlight the importance of conducting genetic studies in diverse populations in the era of precision medicine.

Blood lipid levels are closely linked to cardio-metabolic diseases, and genetic factors play an important role in their metabolism and regulation. Although over 400 loci have been identified through genetic association studies, the genetic architecture of lipid levels is not fully characterized. The lack of representation of diverse populations in previous studies resulted in a large gap in understanding the genetic background of lipid traits between European and minority populations, including African Americans, Hispanics, Hawaiians, and Native Americans. In our current analyses which included ancestrally diverse populations, we identified nine novel loci, one novel gene, and minority-specific independent signals at eight known loci, and pinpointed potential functional variants at two known loci. We further observed smaller effect sizes of reported lipids-associated loci in African Americans and Hispanics than those in Europeans, and better performance of polygenic risk scores using minority-specific instead of European-derived effect sizes when estimating genetic predisposition in minority populations. Our findings showed the benefits of including multi-ethnic studies in identification and refinement of lipids-associated loci, which will help to reduce the existing disparities and to pave the road to precision medicine.

Radiomics of Coronary Artery Calcium in the Framingham Heart Study

PURPOSE

To extract radiomic features from coronary artery calcium (CAC) on CT images and to determine whether this approach could improve the ability to identify individuals at risk for a composite endpoint of clinical events.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Participants from the Offspring and Third Generation cohorts of the community-based Framingham Heart Study underwent noncontrast cardiac CT (2002-2005) and were followed for more than a median of 9.1 years for composite major events. A total of 624 participants with CAC Agatston score (AS) of greater than 0 and good or excellent CT image quality were included for manual CAC segmentation and extraction of a predefined set of radiomic features reflecting intensity, shape, and texture. In a discovery cohort (n = 318), machine learning was used to select the 20 most informative and nonredundant CAC radiomic features, classify features predicting events, and define a radiomic-based score (RS). Performance of the RS was tested independently for the prediction of events in a validation cohort (n = 306).

RESULTS

The RS had a median value of 0.08 (interquartile range, 0.007-0.71) and a weak and modest correlation with Framingham risk score (FRS) (r = 0.2) and AS (r = 0.39), respectively. The continuous RS unadjusted, adjusted for age and sex, FRS, AS, and FRS plus AS were significantly associated with events (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.2, P < .001; HR = 1.8, P = .002; HR = 2.0, P < .001; HR = 1.7, P = .02; and HR = 1.8, P = .01, respectively). In participants with AS of less than 300, RS association with events remained significant when unadjusted and adjusted for age and sex, FRS, AS, and FRS plus AS (HR = 2.4, 2.8, 2.8, 2.3, and 2.6; P < .001, respectively). In the same subgroup of participants, adding the RS to AS resulted in a significant improvement in the discriminatory ability for events as compared with the AS (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.80 vs 0.68, respectively; P = .03).

CONCLUSION

A radiomic-based score, including the complex properties of CAC, may constitute an imaging biomarker to be further developed to identify individuals at risk for major adverse cardiovascular events in a community-based cohort. Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2020.

Harmonizing Genetic Ancestry and Self-identified Race/Ethnicity in Genome-wide Association Studies

Large-scale multi-ethnic cohorts offer unprecedented opportunities to elucidate the genetic factors influencing complex traits related to health and disease among minority populations. At the same time, the genetic diversity in these cohorts presents new challenges for analysis and interpretation. We consider the utility of race and/or ethnicity categories in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of multi-ethnic cohorts. We demonstrate that race/ethnicity information enhances the ability to understand population-specific genetic architecture. To address the practical issue that self-identified racial/ethnic information may be incomplete, we propose a machine learning algorithm that produces a surrogate variable, termed HARE. We use height as a model trait to demonstrate the utility of HARE and ethnicity-specific GWASs.

Mendelian randomization evaluation of causal effects of fibrinogen on incident coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND

Fibrinogen is an essential hemostatic factor and cardiovascular disease risk factor. Early attempts at evaluating the causal effect of fibrinogen on coronary heart disease (CHD) and myocardial infraction (MI) using Mendelian randomization (MR) used single variant approaches, and did not take advantage of recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) or multi-variant, pleiotropy robust MR methodologies.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We evaluated evidence for a causal effect of fibrinogen on both CHD and MI using MR. We used both an allele score approach and pleiotropy robust MR models. The allele score was composed of 38 fibrinogen-associated variants from recent GWAS. Initial analyses using the allele score used a meta-analysis of 11 European-ancestry prospective cohorts, free of CHD and MI at baseline, to examine incidence CHD and MI. We also applied 2 sample MR methods with data from a prevalent CHD and MI GWAS. Results are given in terms of the hazard ratio (HR) or odds ratio (OR), depending on the study design, and associated 95% confidence interval (CI). In single variant analyses no causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD or MI was observed. In multi-variant analyses using incidence CHD cases and the allele score approach, the estimated causal effect (HR) of a 1 g/L higher fibrinogen concentration was 1.62 (CI = 1.12, 2.36) when using incident cases and the allele score approach. In 2 sample MR analyses that accounted for pleiotropy, the causal estimate (OR) was reduced to 1.18 (CI = 0.98, 1.42) and 1.09 (CI = 0.89, 1.33) in the 2 most precise (smallest CI) models, out of 4 models evaluated. In the 2 sample MR analyses for MI, there was only very weak evidence of a causal effect in only 1 out of 4 models.

CONCLUSIONS

A small causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD is observed using multi-variant MR approaches which account for pleiotropy, but not single variant MR approaches. Taken together, results indicate that even with large sample sizes and multi-variant approaches MR analyses still cannot exclude the null when estimating the causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD, but that any potential causal effect is likely to be much smaller than observed in epidemiological studies.

Effects of Genetic Variants Associated with Familial Hypercholesterolemia on Low-Density Lipoprotein-Cholesterol Levels and Cardiovascular Outcomes in the Million Veteran Program

Background

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is characterized by inherited high levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and premature coronary heart disease (CHD). Over a thousand low-frequency variants in LDLR, APOB and PCSK9 have been implicated in FH but few have been examined at the population level. We aim to estimate the phenotypic effects of a subset of FH variants on LDL-C and clinical outcomes among 331,107 multi-ethnic participants.

Methods

We examined the individual and collective association between putatively pathogenic FH variants included on the MVP biobank array and the maximum LDL-C level over an interval of 15 years (maxLDL). We assessed the collective effect on clinical outcomes by leveraging data from 61.7 million clinical encounters.

Results

We found 8 out of 16 putatively pathogenic FH variants with ≥30 observed carriers to be significantly associated with elevated maxLDL (9.4-80.2 mg/dL). Phenotypic effects were similar for European and African Americans despite substantial differences in carrier frequencies. Based on observed effects on maxLDL, we identified a total of 748 carriers (1:443) who had elevated maxLDL (36.5±1.4 mg/dL, p=1.2×10-152), and higher prevalence of clinical diagnoses related to hypercholesterolemia and CHD in a phenome-wide scan. Adjusted for maxLDL, FH variants collectively associated with higher prevalence of CHD (odds ratio, 1.59 [95% CI 1.36-1.86], p=1.1×10-8) but not peripheral artery disease.

Conclusions

The distribution and phenotypic effects of putatively pathogenic FH variants were heterogeneous within and across variants. More robust evidence of genotype-phenotype associations of FH variants in multi-ethnic populations is needed to accurately infer at-risk individuals from genetic screening.

A comprehensive evaluation of the genetic architecture of sudden cardiac arrest

Aims

Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) accounts for 10% of adult mortality in Western populations. We aim to identify potential loci associated with SCA and to identify risk factors causally associated with SCA.

Methods and results

We carried out a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) for SCA (n = 3939 cases, 25 989 non-cases) to examine common variation genome-wide and in candidate arrhythmia genes. We also exploited Mendelian randomization (MR) methods using cross-trait multi-variant genetic risk score associations (GRSA) to assess causal relationships of 18 risk factors with SCA. No variants were associated with SCA at genome-wide significance, nor were common variants in candidate arrhythmia genes associated with SCA at nominal significance. Using cross-trait GRSA, we established genetic correlation between SCA and (i) coronary artery disease (CAD) and traditional CAD risk factors (blood pressure, lipids, and diabetes), (ii) height and BMI, and (iii) electrical instability traits (QT and atrial fibrillation), suggesting aetiologic roles for these traits in SCA risk.

Conclusions

Our findings show that a comprehensive approach to the genetic architecture of SCA can shed light on the determinants of a complex life-threatening condition with multiple influencing factors in the general population. The results of this genetic analysis, both positive and negative findings, have implications for evaluating the genetic architecture of patients with a family history of SCA, and for efforts to prevent SCA in high-risk populations and the general community.

Lp-PLA2, scavenger receptor class B type I gene (SCARB1) rs10846744 variant, and cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

We previously reported association of SCARB1 SNP rs10846744 with common carotid IMT (cIMT) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. Since rs10846744 has been reported in association with Lp-PLA2 mass and activity, we hypothesized that inflammatory pathways might mediate the association of rs10846744 with atherosclerosis.

METHODS

We first examined association of rs10846744 in CVD in multiple large-scale consortium-based genome-wide association studies. We further examined 27 parameters of interest, including Lp-PLA2 mass and activity, inflammatory markers, and plasma phospholipid fatty acids, and fatty acid ratios in participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), as potential mediators in the pathway linking rs10846744 with cIMT and incident CVD. Finally, we examined the association of rs10846744 with Lp-PLA2 activity, cardiovascular outcomes, and interaction with the Lp-PLA2 inhibitor, darapladib, in the Stabilization of Atherosclerotic Plaque by Initiation of Darapladib Therapy (STABILITY) and Stabilization of Plaque using Darapladib-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 52 (SOLID-TIMI 52) studies.

RESULTS

SCARB1 rs10846744 was associated with coronary artery disease events in CARDIoGRAMplusC4D (odds ratio 1.05; 95% CI [1.02, 1.07]; P = 1.4x10-4). In combined analysis across race/ethnic groups in MESA, rs10846744 was associated with Lp-PLA2 mass (P = 0.04) and activity (P = 0.001), homocysteine (P = 0.03), LDL particle number (P = 0.01), docosahexaenoic acid [DHA] (P = 0.01), docosapentaenoic acid [DPA] (P = 0.04), DPA/ eicosapentaenoic acid [EPA] ratio (P = 0.002), and DHA/EPA ratio (P = 0.008). Lp-PLA2 activity was identified as a mediator of rs10846744 with cIMT in a basic model (P = 8x10-5), but not after adjustment for CVD risk factors. There was no interaction or modifier effect of the Lp-PLA2 inhibitor darapladib assignment on the relationship between rs10846744 and major CVD events in either STABILITY or SOLID-TIMI 52.

SUMMARY

SCARB1 rs10846744 is significantly associated with Lp-PLA2 activity, atherosclerosis, and CVD events, but Lp-PLA2 activity is not a mediator in the association of rs10846744 with cIMT in MESA.

Effect of isolated left bundle-branch block on biventricular volumes and ejection fraction: a cardiovascular magnetic resonance assessment

BACKGROUND

Left bundle branch block (LBBB) is associated with abnormal left ventricular (LV) contraction, and is frequently associated with co-morbid cardiovascular disease, but the effect of an isolated (i.e. in the absence of cardiovascular dissease) LBBB on biventricular volumes and ejection fraction (EF) is not well characterized. The objective of this study was to compare LV and right ventricular (RV) volumes and EF in adults with an isolated LBBB to matched healthy controls and to population-derived normative values, using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging.

METHODS

We reviewed our clinical echocardiography database and the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort CMR database to identify adults with an isolated LBBB. Age-, sex-, hypertension-status, and body-surface area (BSA)-matched controls were identified from the Offspring cohort. All study subjects were scanned using the same CMR hardware and imaging sequence. Isolated-LBBB cases were compared with matched controls using Wilcoxon paired signed-rank test, and to normative reference values via Z-score.

RESULTS

Isolated-LBBB subjects (n = 18, 10F) ranged in age from 37 to 82 years. An isolated LBBB was associated with larger LV end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes (both p < 0.01) and lower LVEF (56+/- 7% vs. 68+/- 6%; p  <0.001) with similar myocardial contraction fraction. LVEF in isolated LBBB was nearly two standard deviations (Z = - 1.95) below mean sex and age-matched group values. LV stroke volume, cardiac output, and mass, and all RV parameters were similar (p = NS) between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults with an isolated LBBB have greater LV volumes and markedly reduced LVEF, despite the absence of overt cardiovascular disease. These data may be useful toward the clinical interpretation of imaging studies performed on patients with an isolated LBBB.

Association of Interleukin 6 Receptor Variant With Cardiovascular Disease Effects of Interleukin 6 Receptor Blocking Therapy: A Phenome-Wide Association Study

Importance

Electronic health record (EHR) biobanks containing clinical and genomic data on large numbers of individuals have great potential to inform drug discovery. Individuals with interleukin 6 receptor (IL6R) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) who are not receiving IL6R blocking therapy have biomarker profiles similar to those treated with IL6R blockers. This gene-drug pair provides an example to test whether associations of IL6R SNPs with a broad range of phenotypes can inform which diseases may benefit from treatment with IL6R blockade.

Objective

To determine whether screening for clinical associations with the IL6R SNP in a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) using EHR biobank data can identify drug effects from IL6R clinical trials.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Diagnosis codes and routine laboratory measurements were extracted from the VA Million Veteran Program (MVP); diagnosis codes were mapped to phenotype groups using published PheWAS methods. A PheWAS was performed by fitting logistic regression models for testing associations of the IL6R SNPs with 1342 phenotype groups and by fitting linear regression models for testing associations of the IL6R SNP with 26 routine laboratory measurements. Significance was reported using a false discovery rate of 0.05 or less. Findings were replicated in 2 independent cohorts using UK Biobank and Vanderbilt University Biobank data. The Million Veteran Program included 332 799 US veterans; the UK Biobank, 408 455 individuals from the general population of the United Kingdom; and the Vanderbilt University Biobank, 13 835 patients from a tertiary care center.

Exposures

IL6R SNPs (rs2228145; rs4129267).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Phenotypes defined by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes.

Results

Of the 332 799 veterans included in the main cohort, 305 228 (91.7%) were men, and the mean (SD) age was 66.1 (13.6) years. The IL6R SNP was most strongly associated with a reduced risk of aortic aneurysm phenotypes (odds ratio, 0.87-0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.93) in the MVP. We observed known off-target effects of IL6R blockade from clinical trials (eg, higher hemoglobin level). The reduced risk for aortic aneurysms among those with the IL6R SNP in the MVP was replicated in the Vanderbilt University Biobank, and the reduced risk for coronary heart disease was replicated in the UK Biobank.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this proof-of-concept study, we demonstrated application of the PheWAS using large EHR biobanks to inform drug effects. The findings of an association of the IL6R SNP with reduced risk for aortic aneurysms correspond with the newest indication for IL6R blockade, giant cell arteritis, of which a major complication is aortic aneurysm.

A new look at the decomposition of agricultural productivity growth incorporating weather effects

Random fluctuations in temperature and precipitation have substantial impacts on agricultural output. However, the contribution of these changing configurations in weather to total factor productivity (TFP) growth has not been addressed explicitly in econometric analyses. Thus, the key objective of this study is to quantify and to investigate the role of changing weather patterns in explaining yearly fluctuations in TFP. For this purpose, we define TFP to be a measure of total output divided by a measure of total input. We estimate a stochastic production frontier model using U.S. state-level agricultural data incorporating growing season temperature and precipitation, and intra-annual standard deviations of temperature and precipitation for the period 1960–2004. We use the estimated parameters of the model to compute a TFP index that has good axiomatic properties. We then decompose TFP growth in each state into weather effects, technological progress, technical efficiency, and scale-mix efficiency changes. This approach improves our understanding of the role of different components of TFP in agricultural productivity growth. We find that annual TFP growth averaged 1.56% between 1960 and 2004. Moreover, we observe substantial heterogeneity in weather effects across states and over time.

Baseline Characterization and Annual Trends of Body Mass Index for a Mega-Biobank Cohort of US Veterans 2011-2017

AIM

Million Veteran Program (MVP) is the largest ongoing mega-cohort biobank program in the US with 570,131 enrollees as of May 2017. The primary aim is to describe demographics, military service, and major diseases and comorbidities of the MVP cohort. Our secondary aim is to examine body mass index (BMI), a proxy for general health, among enrollees.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

The study population consists of Veterans who actively use the Veterans Health Administration in the US. Data evaluated in this paper combine health information from multiple sources to provide the most comprehensive demographic profile and information on height and weight of MVP enrollees. A standardized cleaning algorithm was used to curate the demographic variables for each participant in MVP. For height and weight, we derived a final data point for each participant to evaluate BMI.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED

Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the differences in BMI categories across enrollment years adjusting for gender, race, and age. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. All analyses were conducted using Statistical Analysis System 9.2.

RESULTS

The MVP cohort consists of 90.4% of males with an average age of 61.9 years (standard deviation [SD] = 13.9). MVP is the largest multiethnic biobank cohort within the Veteran population with 73.9% White, 19.0% Black, and 6.5% Hispanic. The most common self-reported disease was hypertension (62.6%) for males and depression (47.5%) for females. Mean BMI was 29.7 kg/m² (SD = 5.8) with 38.2% obese and 42.3% overweight.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that demographic representation in MVP is similar to the Veterans Health Administration population and contrasts with the overall National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey US population. The prevalence of overweight and obese is high among US Veterans, and future studies will examine the role of BMI and disease risk in the Veteran population.

Genotype-driven identification of a molecular network predictive of advanced coronary calcium in ClinSeq® and Framingham Heart Study cohorts

BACKGROUND

One goal of personalized medicine is leveraging the emerging tools of data science to guide medical decision-making. Achieving this using disparate data sources is most daunting for polygenic traits. To this end, we employed random forests (RFs) and neural networks (NNs) for predictive modeling of coronary artery calcium (CAC), which is an intermediate endo-phenotype of coronary artery disease (CAD).

METHODS

Model inputs were derived from advanced cases in the ClinSeq®; discovery cohort (n=16) and the FHS replication cohort (n=36) from 89 th -99 th CAC score percentile range, and age-matched controls (ClinSeq®; n=16, FHS n=36) with no detectable CAC (all subjects were Caucasian males). These inputs included clinical variables and genotypes of 56 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) ranked highest in terms of their nominal correlation with the advanced CAC state in the discovery cohort. Predictive performance was assessed by computing the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC-AUC).

RESULTS

RF models trained and tested with clinical variables generated ROC-AUC values of 0.69 and 0.61 in the discovery and replication cohorts, respectively. In contrast, in both cohorts, the set of SNPs derived from the discovery cohort were highly predictive (ROC-AUC ≥0.85) with no significant change in predictive performance upon integration of clinical and genotype variables. Using the 21 SNPs that produced optimal predictive performance in both cohorts, we developed NN models trained with ClinSeq®; data and tested with FHS data and obtained high predictive accuracy (ROC-AUC=0.80-0.85) with several topologies. Several CAD and "vascular aging" related biological processes were enriched in the network of genes constructed from the predictive SNPs.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a molecular network predictive of advanced coronary calcium using genotype data from ClinSeq®; and FHS cohorts. Our results illustrate that machine learning tools, which utilize complex interactions between disease predictors intrinsic to the pathogenesis of polygenic disorders, hold promise for deriving predictive disease models and networks.

Abstract 233: Genetic Evidence for Overlap in the Pathogenesis of Peripheral Artery Disease and Coronary Artery Disease

Introduction: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is thought to share atherosclerotic biologic mechanisms and traditional risk factors with coronary artery disease (CAD). Although significant progress has been made in identifying genetic contributors to CAD, genetic factors underlying PAD remain largely uncharacterized. The aim of our study was to evaluate the shared genetic architecture between PAD and CAD.

Hypothesis: DNA sequence variants associated with CAD risk are also associated with PAD.

Methods: We analyzed the electronic health records from 239,621 U.S. Veterans of European ancestry with available imputed genetic data from the VA Million Veteran Program. Within this cohort we identified 16,364 participants with PAD, and 67,636 with CAD. We constructed additive weighted genetic risk scores (GRS) of 57 DNA sequence variants previously associated with CAD at genome-wide significance. We standardized the GRS to have a mean of zero and standard deviation (SD) of 1, and assessed the strength of its association with PAD through logistic regression. Models were adjusted for age, sex, and 7 principal components of ancestry. In a mediation analysis, we then included CAD status in the model to examine if these genetic associations remained significant after accounting for a CAD diagnosis.

Results: The CAD GRS was significantly associated with clinical CAD [OR = 1.22 per SD increase in GRS, (95%CI: 1.21 -1.23, Z-Score = 44.5, P < 2 x10 -16 )]. The CAD GRS was also significantly associated with PAD [OR = 1.12 per SD increase in GRS, (95%CI: 1.10-1.14, Z-Score = 14.5, P < 2x10 -16 )]. This magnitude of association was attenuated when further adjusting for CAD in the regression model but remained strongly significant [OR = 1.05 per SD increase in GRS, (95%CI: 1.03-1.07, Z-Score = 6.2, P = 5.6x10 -10 )].

Conclusions: In the largest single cohort of CAD and PAD cases worldwide, we found that a genetic risk score of DNA sequence variants associated with risk for CAD are also associated with risk of PAD, even after accounting for the presence of coronary atherosclerosis. These data suggest significant overlap in the mechanisms underlying development of atherosclerosis within both the peripheral and coronary arterial beds.