Evidence synthesis communities in low-income and middle-income countries and the COVID-19 response

Using a priority setting exercise to identify priorities for guidelines on newborn and child health in South Africa, Malawi, and Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest under-five mortality rate globally. Child healthcare decisions should be based on rigorously developed evidence-informed guidelines. The Global Evidence, Local Adaptation (GELA) project is enhancing capacity to use global research to develop locally relevant guidelines for newborn and child health in South Africa (SA), Malawi, and Nigeria. The first step in this process was to identify national priorities for newborn and child health guideline development, and this paper describes our approach.

METHODS

We followed a good practice method for priority setting, including stakeholder engagement, online priority setting surveys and consensus meetings, conducted separately in South Africa, Malawi and Nigeria. We established national Steering Groups (SG), comprising 10-13 members representing government, academia, and other stakeholders, identified through existing contacts and references, who helped prioritise initial topics identified by research teams and oversaw the process. Various stakeholders were consulted via online surveys to rate the importance of topics, with results informing consensus meetings with SGs where final priority topics were agreed.

RESULTS

Based on survey results, nine, 10 and 11 topics were identified in SA, Malawi, and Nigeria respectively, which informed consensus meetings. Through voting and discussion within meetings, and further engagement after the meetings, the top three priority topics were identified in each country. In SA, the topics concerned anemia prevention in infants and young children and post-discharge support for caregivers of preterm and LBW babies. In Malawi, they focused on enteral nutrition in critically ill children, diagnosis of childhood cancers in the community, and caring for neonates. In Nigeria, the topics focused on identifying pre-eclampsia in the community, hand hygiene compliance to prevent infections, and enteral nutrition for LBW and preterm infants.

CONCLUSIONS

Through dynamic and iterative stakeholder engagement, we identified three priority topics for guideline development on newborn and child health in SA, Malawi and Nigeria. Topics were specific to contexts, with no overlap, which highlights the importance of contextualised priority setting as well as of the relationships with key decisionmakers who help define the priorities.

The impact of COVID-19 and national pandemic responses on health service utilisation in seven low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted health services worldwide, which may have led to increased mortality and secondary disease outbreaks. Disruptions vary by patient population, geographic area, and service. While many reasons have been put forward to explain disruptions, few studies have empirically investigated their causes.

OBJECTIVE

We quantify disruptions to outpatient services, facility-based deliveries, and family planning in seven low- and middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and quantify relationships between disruptions and the intensity of national pandemic responses.

METHODS

We leveraged routine data from 104 Partners In Health-supported facilities from January 2016 to December 2021. We first quantified COVID-19-related disruptions in each country by month using negative binomial time series models. We then modelled the relationship between disruptions and the intensity of national pandemic responses, as measured by the stringency index from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker.

RESULTS

For all the studied countries, we observed at least one month with a significant decline in outpatient visits during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also observed significant cumulative drops in outpatient visits across all months in Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone. A significant cumulative decrease in facility-based deliveries was observed in Haiti, Lesotho, Mexico, and Sierra Leone. No country had significant cumulative drops in family planning visits. For a 10-unit increase in the average monthly stringency index, the proportion deviation in monthly facility outpatient visits compared to expected fell by 3.9% (95% CI: -5.1%, -1.6%). No relationship between stringency of pandemic responses and utilisation was observed for facility-based deliveries or family planning.

CONCLUSIONS

Context-specific strategies show the ability of health systems to sustain essential health services during the pandemic. The link between pandemic responses and healthcare utilisation can inform purposeful strategies to ensure communities have access to care and provide lessons for promoting the utilisation of health services elsewhere.

Quality of systematic reviews in African emergency medicine: a cross-sectional methodological study

Introduction

Reliable systematic reviews are essential to inform clinical practice guidelines, policies and further research priorities in Africa. For systematic review findings to be trustworthy, they need to be conducted with methodological rigour and reported transparently. We assessed the methodological quality of systematic reviews published in African emergency medicine journals, comparing them to those published in international emergency medicine journals. Additionally, we describe the types of review literature published in the African journals.

Methods

We performed a cross-sectional methodological study of systematic reviews published in selected African and international emergency medicine journals from 2012 to 2021. Studies were eligible if they were i) a systematic review on an emergency medicine topic, ii) published in one of the top five emergency medicine journals in the African region or internationally and iii) published between January 2012 and December 2021 in English or French. We searched PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus databases and hand-searched selected journals. Two authors screened titles, abstracts and full texts independently and in duplicate. Data extraction was performed by one reviewer, using a standardised form, after completing a calibration exercise. We described the characteristics of systematic reviews and assessed methodological quality using AMSTAR II.

Results

We identified 34 (37%) African and 511 (54%) international systematic reviews from 92 and 948 review articles respectively across 10 journals. We included all 34 African and a random sample of 100 international systematic reviews. Methodological quality was low or critically low for all the African systematic reviews (n=34, 100%) and all but three international systematic reviews (n=97, 97%). The median number of critical domain weaknesses was 4 (IQR 4;5) and 2 (IQR 2;4) for African and international systematic reviews respectively. The most common weaknesses across both African and international systematic reviews were i) not establishing a priori review protocols, ii) unclear selection of study designs iii) not providing a list of excluded studies and iv) unclear reporting on funding sources for included studies.

Conclusion

Emergency medicine systematic reviews published in African and international journals are lacking in methodological quality. Reporting an a priori protocol, developing a comprehensive search strategy, appropriate evidence synthesis and adequate assessment of risk of bias, heterogeneity and evidence certainty may improve the quality of systematic reviews.

Advancing guideline quality through country-wide and regional quality assessment of CPGs using AGREE: a scoping review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) are evaluated for quality with the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE) tool, and this is increasingly done for different countries and regional groupings. This scoping review aimed to describe, map, and compare these geographical synthesis studies, that assessed CPG quality using the AGREE tool. This allowed a global interpretation of the current landscape of these country-wide or regional synthesis studies, and a closer look at its methodology and results.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

A scoping review was conducted searching databases Medline, Embase, Epistemonikos, and grey literature on 5 October 2021 for synthesis studies using the later versions of AGREE (AGREE II, AGREE-REX and AGREE GRS) to evaluate country-wide or regional CPG quality. Country-wide or regional synthesis studies were the units of analysis, and simple descriptive statistics was used to conduct the analysis. AGREE scores were analysed across subgroups into one of the seven Sustainable Development Goal regions, to allow for meaningful interpretation.

RESULTS

Fifty-seven studies fulfilled our eligibility criteria, which had included a total of 2918 CPGs. Regions of the Global North, and Eastern and South-Eastern Asia were most represented. Studies were consistent in reporting and presenting their AGREE domain and overall results, but only 18% (n = 10) reported development methods, and 19% (n = 11) reported use of Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE). Overall scores for domains Rigor of development and Editorial independence were low, notably in middle-income countries. Editorial Independence scores, especially, were low across all regions with a maximum domain score of 46%. There were no studies from low-income countries.

CONCLUSION

There is an increasing tendency to appraise country-wide and regionally grouped CPGs, using quality appraisal tools. The AGREE tool, evaluated in this scoping review, was used well and consistently across studies. Findings of low report rates of development of CPGs and of use of GRADE is concerning, as is low domain scores globally for Editorial Independence. Transparent reporting of funding and competing interests, as well as highlighting evidence-to-decision processes, should assist in further improving CPG quality as clinicians are in dire need of high-quality guidelines.

Utilisation of ANC services before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in selected resource-poor blocks of India: role of community health workers in Swabhimaan programme area

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 has disrupted maternal and child health services. Community Health Workers (CHWs) supported the women by visiting pregnant women's homes and providing the MCH services as required. This study attempts to understand the role of CHW and its impact on the Ante-Natal Care (ANC) services pre-pandemic and post-Pandemic in the poor resource setting.

METHODS

The Swabhimaan programme interventions were carried out in the selected blocks in the Indian States of Bihar, Odisha and Chhattisgarh with the objective to improve the nutritional status of mothers, pregnant women and adolescents living in resource-poor blocks of three selected states during 2016-2022. Cross-sectional surveys, namely pre-pandemic (2018-19) and post-pandemic (2021-22) of pregnant and mothers of under two children, utilised to fulfil the objectives of this study. These surveys are part of Swabhimaan evaluation, a community-based non-randomised controlled study.

RESULTS

The ANC services received by women have increased over time from 2015 to 2022. Our findings confirm that the ground-level community and health systems were active during the pandemic, and the results show significant improvement. Additionally, the women supported by the CHW have substantially improved pregnancy registration, first ANC, Tetanus injection, consumption of Iron Folic Acid, Calcium and deworming tablets than those who did not. Propesnsity Score Matching analysis shows that the average treatment effect on the various ANC services of having the support of CHW is significant.

CONCLUSION

This study shows the vital role of CHWs in utilising various Maternal and Child Health services. Better linkage and networking of the CHWs with the community will ensure health service delivery regularly and in an emergency like a pandemic and develop resilience.

Evidence synthesis to policy: development and implementation of an impact-oriented approach from the Eastern Mediterranean Region

BACKGROUND

Despite the importance of evidence syntheses in informing policymaking, their production and use remain limited in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR). There is a lack of empirical research on approaches to promote and use policy-relevant evidence syntheses to inform policymaking processes in the EMR.

OBJECTIVE

This study sought to describe the development of an impact-oriented approach to link evidence synthesis to policy, and its implementation through selected case studies in Lebanon, a middle-income country in the EMR.

METHODS

This study followed a multifaceted and iterative process that included (i) a review of the literature, (ii) input from international experts in evidence synthesis and evidence-informed health policymaking, and (iii) application in a real-world setting (implementation). We describe four selected case studies of implementation. Surveys were used to assess policy briefs, deliberative dialogues, and post-dialogue activities. Additionally, Kingdon's stream theory was adopted to further explain how and why the selected policy issues rose to the decision agenda.

RESULTS

The approach incorporates three interrelated phases: (1) priority setting, (2) evidence synthesis, and (3) uptake. Policy-relevant priorities are generated through formal priority setting exercises, direct requests by policymakers and stakeholders, or a focusing event. Identified priorities are translated into focused questions that can be addressed via evidence synthesis (phase 1). Next, a scoping of the literature is conducted to identify existing evidence syntheses addressing the question of interest. Unless the team identifies relevant, up-to-date and high-quality evidence syntheses, it proceeds to conducting SRs addressing the priority questions of interest (phase 2). Next, the team prepares knowledge translation products (e.g., policy briefs) for undertaking knowledge uptake activities, followed by monitoring and evaluation (phase 3). There are two prerequisites to the application of the approach: enhancing contextual awareness and capacity strengthening. The four case studies illustrate how evidence produced from the suites of activities was used to inform health policies and practices.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study to describe both the development and implementation of an approach to link evidence synthesis to policy in the EMR. We believe the approach will be useful for researchers, knowledge translation platforms, governments, and funders seeking to promote evidence-informed policymaking and practice.

Sea swimming and snorkeling in tropical coastal blue spaces and mental well-being: Findings from Indonesian island communities during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has considerable mental health impacts. Immersive nature-based interventions, such as swimming or snorkeling, may help mitigate the global mental health crisis caused by the pandemic. To investigate this, we collected cross-sectional data from residents of coastal villages (n = 308) in Kepulauan Selayar, Indonesia. Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) was used with mental well-being as the outcome variable, operationalized as the Mental Component Summary (MCS) scores from the SF-12 (12-item Short Form Health Survey). After adjusting for covariates, the activity of sea swimming or snorkeling was found to be significantly associated with better mental well-being (η² = 0.036; p < 0.01). Predictive margins analysis revealed that those who engaged in sea swimming or snorkeling for one to three days a week gained a 2.7 increase in their MCS scores, compared to those who did not. A non-linear dose-response relationship was detected: for those swimming or snorkeling more than three days per week, there was only an increase of 1.7 MCS score compared to the 0-day. Overall this study contributes to the expanding of evidence base, showing that interactions with blue spaces can be beneficial for mental health, especially in a potentially stressful time such as the current pandemic.

Management implications

The positive association between the activity of swimming or snorkeling in open seas and the mental well-being of rural coastal communities in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic indicates that access to coastal blue spaces is important in a time of uncertainties and high stress. Ensuring that local communities have continuous access to these spaces is the key challenge for all relevant stakeholders, particularly in light of the growing privatization of the local coastal environment for the sake of tourism. However, considering the importance that these blue spaces hold for the mental well-being of local communities, intensive dialogue amongst these stakeholders must be pursued to ensure that the development of the area does not jeopardize the collective well-being of the people already living there.

A comparison of machine learning algorithms in predicting COVID-19 prognostics

ML algorithms are used to develop prognostic and diagnostic models and so to support clinical decision-making. This study uses eight supervised ML algorithms to predict the need for intensive care, intubation, and mortality risk for COVID-19 patients. The study uses two datasets: (1) patient demographics and clinical data (n = 11,712), and (2) patient demographics, clinical data, and blood test results (n = 602) for developing the prediction models, understanding the most significant features, and comparing the performances of eight different ML algorithms. Experimental findings showed that all prognostic prediction models reported an AUROC value of over 0.92, in which extra tree and CatBoost classifiers were often outperformed (AUROC over 0.94). The findings revealed that the features of C-reactive protein, the ratio of lymphocytes, lactic acid, and serum calcium have a substantial impact on COVID-19 prognostic predictions. This study provides evidence of the value of tree-based supervised ML algorithms for predicting prognosis in health care.

Living with a Pandemic from Psycho-Social Perspectives: A Narrative Review

This narrative review aims to identify psycho-social issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic, especially among vulnerable populations. Through understanding the psychosocial meanings underneath, the suffering from the pandemic and the transformative experiences toward better society could be substantiated. Searching relevant studies and literature on psycho-social impacts in relation to COVID-19 was conducted from psycho-social points of view. Vulnerable populations such as the mentally ill, the poor, refugees, immigrants, the elderly, and other stigmatized groups were focused on. Reflections and plans on the worsened health disparities and increased stresses among vulnerable groups will help our society to be healthier and safer.

Paper 4: a review of reporting and disseminating approaches for rapid reviews in health policy and systems research

BACKGROUND

Transparent reporting of rapid reviews enables appropriate use of research findings and dissemination strategies can strengthen uptake and impact for the targeted knowledge users, including policy-makers and health system managers. The aim of this literature review was to understand reporting and dissemination approaches for rapid reviews and provide an overview in the context of health policy and systems research.

METHODS

A literature review and descriptive summary of the reporting and disseminating approaches for rapid reviews was conducted, focusing on available guidance and methods, considerations for engagement with knowledge users, and optimizing dissemination. MEDLINE, PubMed, Google scholar, as well as relevant websites and reference lists were searched from January 2017 to March 2021 to identify the relevant literature with no language restrictions. Content was abstracted and charted.

RESULTS

The literature review found limited guidance specific to rapid reviews. Building on the barriers and facilitators to systematic review use, we provide practical recommendations on different approaches and methods for reporting and disseminating expedited knowledge synthesis considering the needs of health policy and systems knowledge users. Reporting should balance comprehensive accounting of the research process and findings with what is "good enough" or sufficient to meet the requirements of the knowledge users, while considering the time and resources available to conduct a review. Typical approaches may be used when planning the dissemination of rapid review findings; such as peer-reviewed publications or symposia and clear and ongoing engagement with knowledge users in crafting the messages is essential so they are appropriately tailored to the target audience. Consideration should be given to providing different products for different audiences. Dissemination measures and bibliometrics are also useful to gauge impact and reach.

CONCLUSIONS

Limited guidance specific to the reporting and dissemination of rapid reviews is available. Although approaches to expedited synthesis for health policy and systems research vary, considerations for the reporting and dissemination of findings are pertinent to all.

Lessons learnt: Undertaking rapid reviews on public health and social measures during a global pandemic

Public health and social measures (PHSM) have been central to the COVID‐19 response. Consequently, there has been much pressure on decision‐makers to make evidence‐informed decisions and on researchers to synthesize the evidence regarding these measures. This article describes our experiences, responses and lessons learnt regarding key challenges when planning and conducting rapid reviews of PHSM during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Stakeholder consultations and scoping reviews to obtain an overview of the evidence inform the scope of reviews that are policy‐relevant and feasible. Multiple complementary reviews serve to examine the benefits and harms of PHSM across different populations and contexts. Conceiving reviews of effectiveness as adaptable living reviews helps to respond to evolving evidence needs and an expanding evidence base. An appropriately skilled review team and good planning, coordination and communication ensures smooth and rigorous processes and efficient use of resources. Scientific rigor, the practical implications of PHSM‐related complexity and likely time savings should be carefully weighed in deciding on methodological shortcuts. Making the best possible use of modeling studies represents a particular challenge, and methods should be carefully chosen, piloted and implemented. Our experience raises questions regarding the nature of rapid reviews and regarding how different types of evidence should be considered in making decisions about PHSM during a global pandemic. We highlight the need for readily available protocols for conducting studies on the effectiveness, unintended consequences and implementation of PHSM in a timely manner, as well as the need for rapid review standards tailored to “rapid” versus “emergency” mode reviewing.

Data flow within global clinical trials: a scoping review

Objective

To document clinical trial data flow in global clinical trials published in major journals between 2013 and 2021 from Global South to Global North.

Design

Scoping analysis

Methods

We performed a search in Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) to retrieve randomised clinical trials published between 2013 and 2021 from The BMJ, BMJ Global Health, the Journal of the American Medical Association, the Lancet, Lancet Global Health and the New England Journal of Medicine. Studies were included if they involved recruitment and author affiliation across different country income groupings using World Bank definitions. The direction of data flow was extracted with a data collection tool using sites of trial recruitment as the starting point and the location of authors conducting statistical analysis as the ending point.

Results

Of 1993 records initially retrieved, 517 studies underwent abstract screening, 348 studies underwent full-text screening and 305 studies were included. Funders from high-income countries were the sole funders of the majority (82%) of clinical trials that recruited across income groupings. In 224 (73.4%) of all assessable studies, data flowed exclusively to authors affiliated with high-income countries or to a majority of authors affiliated with high-income countries for statistical analysis. Only six (3.2%) studies demonstrated data flow to lower middle-income countries and upper middle-income countries for analysis, with only one with data flow to a lower middle-income country.

Conclusions

Global clinical trial data flow demonstrates a Global South to Global North trajectory. Policies should be re-examined to assess how data sharing across country income groupings can move towards a more equitable model.

Challenges to evidence-informed decision-making in the context of pandemics: qualitative study of COVID-19 policy advisor perspectives

INTRODUCTION

The exceptional production of research evidence during the COVID-19 pandemic required deployment of scientists to act in advisory roles to aid policy-makers in making evidence-informed decisions. The unprecedented breadth, scale and duration of the pandemic provides an opportunity to understand how science advisors experience and mitigate challenges associated with insufficient, evolving and/or conflicting evidence to inform public health decision-making.

OBJECTIVES

To explore critically the challenges for advising evidence-informed decision-making (EIDM) in pandemic contexts, particularly around non-pharmaceutical control measures, from the perspective of experts advising policy-makers during COVID-19 globally.

METHODS

We conducted in-depth qualitative interviews with 27 scientific experts and advisors who are/were engaged in COVID-19 EIDM representing four WHO regions and 11 countries (Australia, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, Ghana, Hong Kong, Nigeria, Sweden, Uganda, UK, USA) from December 2020 to May 2021. Participants informed decision-making at various and multiple levels of governance, including local/city (n=3), state/provincial (n=8), federal or national (n=20), regional or international (n=3) and university-level advising (n=3). Following each interview, we conducted member checks with participants and thematically analysed interview data using NVivo for Mac software.

RESULTS

Findings from this study indicate multiple overarching challenges to pandemic EIDM specific to interpretation and translation of evidence, including the speed and influx of new, evolving, and conflicting evidence; concerns about scientific integrity and misinterpretation of evidence; the limited capacity to assess and produce evidence, and adapting evidence from other contexts; multiple forms of evidence and perspectives needed for EIDM; the need to make decisions quickly and under conditions of uncertainty; and a lack of transparency in how decisions are made and applied.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest the urgent need for global EIDM guidance that countries can adapt for in-country decisions as well as coordinated global response to future pandemics.

Lessons from working across fields to develop a framework for informed choices

In late 2018, Iain Chalmers, Andy Oxman and others from the Informed Health Choices team convened a cross-field forum to develop a generic framework of key concepts for thinking critically about claims, research and choices about interventions, with the aim of supporting ‘informed choices’. We define an informed choice as one that is based on critical understanding of the relevant available evidence. This paper describes the process of that cross-field engagement, and reflects on how consensus was reached on the generic framework. Working in an alliance of 24 researchers from across fields to develop the Key Concepts for Informed Choices framework, we learned three lessons about cross-field working: (1) there was much agreement, despite diversity of views and experiences; (2) the applications of our work were broader than we could have imagined; and (3) we identified a wide range of problems that we have in common when making informed choices. Here we describe our experience of working together to develop the framework, and draw out lessons for others who may be involved in similar cross-field initiatives.

Disruptions in maternal health service use during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: experiences from 37 health facilities in low-income and middle-income countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has heterogeneously affected use of basic health services worldwide, with disruptions in some countries beginning in the early stages of the emergency in March 2020. These disruptions have occurred on both the supply and demand sides of healthcare, and have often been related to resource shortages to provide care and lower patient turnout associated with mobility restrictions and fear of contracting COVID-19 at facilities. In this paper, we assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the use of maternal health services using a time series modelling approach developed to monitor health service use during the pandemic using routinely collected health information systems data. We focus on data from 37 non-governmental organisation-supported health facilities in Haiti, Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi, Mexico and Sierra Leone. Overall, our analyses indicate significant declines in first antenatal care visits in Haiti (18% drop) and Sierra Leone (32% drop) and facility-based deliveries in all countries except Malawi from March to December 2020. Different strategies were adopted to maintain continuity of maternal health services, including communication campaigns, continuity of community health worker services, human resource capacity building to ensure compliance with international and national guidelines for front-line health workers, adapting spaces for safe distancing and ensuring the availability of personal protective equipment. We employ a local lens, providing prepandemic context and reporting results and strategies by country, to highlight the importance of developing context-specific interventions to design effective mitigation strategies.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on transplantation by income level and cumulative COVID-19 incidence: a multinational survey study

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected the provisions of health services to necessary but deprioritised fields, such as transplantation. Many programmes had to ramp-down their activity, which may significantly affect transplant volumes. We aimed to pragmatically analyse measures of transplant activity and compare them by a country's income level and cumulative COVID-19 incidence (CCI).

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

From June to September 2020, we surveyed transplant physicians identified as key informants in their programmes. Of the 1267 eligible physicians, 40.5% from 71 countries participated.

OUTCOME

Four pragmatic measures of transplant activity.

RESULTS

Overall, 46.5% of the programmes from high-income countries anticipate being able to maintain >75% of their transplant volume compared with 31.6% of the programmes from upper-middle-income countries, and with 21.7% from low/lower-middle-income countries (p<0.001). This could be because more programmes in high-income countries reported being able to perform transplantation/s (86.8%%-58.5%-67.9%, p<0.001), maintain prepandemic deceased donor offers (31.0%%-14.2%-26.4%, p<0.01) and avoid a ramp down phase (30.9%%-19.7%-8.3%, p<0.001), respectively. In a multivariable analysis that adjusted for CCI, programmes in upper-middle-income countries (adjusted OR, aOR=0.47, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.81) and low/lower-middle-income countries (aOR 0.33, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.67) had lower odds of being able to maintain >75% of their transplant volume, compared with programmes in high-income countries. Again, this could be attributed to lower-income being associated with 3.3-3.9 higher odds of performing no transplantation/s, 66%-68% lower odds of maintaining prepandemic donor offers and 37%-76% lower odds of avoiding ramp-down of transplantation. Overall, CCI was not associated with these measures.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of the pandemic on transplantation was more in lower-income countries, independent of the COVID-19 burden. Given the lag of 1-2 years in objective data being reported by global registries, our findings may inform practice and policy. Transplant programmes in lower-income countries may need more effort to rebuild disrupted services and recuperate from the pandemic even if their COVID-19 burden was low.

COVID-19 in Children with Down Syndrome: Data from the Trisomy 21 Research Society Survey

Adults with Down Syndrome (DS) are at higher risk for severe outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than the general population, but evidence is required to understand the risks for children with DS, which is necessary to inform COVID-19 shielding advice and vaccination priorities. We aimed to determine the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 in children with DS. Using data from an international survey obtained from a range of countries and control data from the United States, we compared the prevalence of symptoms and medical complications and risk factors for severe outcomes between DS and non-DS paediatric populations with COVID-19. Hospitalised COVID-19 patients <18 years with DS had a higher incidence of respiratory symptoms, fever, and several medical complications from COVID-19 than control patients without DS <18 years. Older age, obesity, and epilepsy were significant risk factors for hospitalisation among paediatric COVID-19 patients with DS, and age and thyroid disorder were significant risk factors for acute respiratory distress syndrome. Mortality rates were low in all paediatric COVID-19 patients (with and without DS), contrasting with previous findings in adults with DS (who exhibit higher mortality than those without DS). Children with DS are at increased risk for more severe presentations of COVID-19. Efforts should be made to ensure the comprehensive and early detection of COVID-19 in this population and to identify children with DS who present comorbidities that pose a risk for a severe course of COVID-19. Our results emphasize the importance of vaccinating children with DS as soon as they become eligible.

Psychosocial Aspects During the First Wave of COVID-19 Infection in South Africa

Background: In South Africa, as in many countries, the nationwide spread of COVID-19 caused a public health emergency that resulted in the government implementing necessary restrictive measures such as the nationwide lockdown as a way of containing the pandemic. Such restrictive measure, while necessary, can disrupt many aspects of people's lives resulting in unprecedented psychosocial distress. Aim: The present study aims to describe the psychosocial health and situational factors associated with the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in South Africa during the first wave of infection. Methods: This cross-sectional survey, recruited a total of 203 participants through convenience sampling via online platforms-WhatsApp, Facebook, emails, etc.-during COVID-19 lockdown in the country. Through the snowball technique, participants from across South Africa completed the online survey that assessed socio-demographic information, risk perception, history of mental health, COVID-19-related stress, and fears during the lockdown (first wave). Results: The majority of the participants who completed the survey were young, Black African, and female. Participants reported feelings of stress and anxiety (61.2%); stress about finances (39.5%); and feelings of sadness, anger, and/or frustration (31.6%) during the lockdown. Females compared to males were more likely to perceive COVID-19 as a risk to their household,X ( 20 ) 2 = 45,844, p < 0.001 and community,X ( 20 ) 2 = 40,047, p = 0.005. COVID-19 differentially impacted the mental health of participants with and without mental health diagnosis,X ( 4 ) 2 = 16.596, p = 0.002. Participants with a prior mental health diagnosis reported significant extra stress during lockdown (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The findings may be of significance to assist in the development of targeted psychosocial interventions to help people during and after the pandemic.

COVID-19 and Orthopaedic International Humanitarianism

As the world continues to adjust to life with COVID-19, one topic that requires further thought and discussion is whether elective international medical volunteerism can continue, and, if so, what challenges will need to be addressed. During a pandemic, the medical community is attentive to controlling the disease outbreak, and most of the literature regarding physician involvement during a pandemic focuses primarily on physicians traveling to areas of need to help treat the disease. As a result, little has been written about medical volunteerism that focuses on medical treatment unrelated to the disease outbreak. In a world-wide pandemic, many factors are to be considered in determining whether, and when, a physician should travel to another region to provide care and training for medical issues not directly related to the pandemic.

Leaders of humanitarian committees of orthopaedic surgery subspecialties engaged with one another and host orthopaedic surgeons and a sponsoring organization to provide thoughtful insight and expert opinion on the challenges faced and possible pathways to provide continued orthopaedic support around the globe. Although this discussion focuses on international orthopaedic care, these suggestions may have a much broader application to the international medical community as a whole.

A multipurpose machine learning approach to predict COVID-19 negative prognosis in São Paulo, Brazil

The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a challenge for clinical decision-making and the effective allocation of healthcare resources. An accurate prognostic assessment is necessary to improve survival of patients, especially in developing countries. This study proposes to predict the risk of developing critical conditions in COVID-19 patients by training multipurpose algorithms. We followed a total of 1040 patients with a positive RT-PCR diagnosis for COVID-19 from a large hospital from São Paulo, Brazil, from March to June 2020, of which 288 (28%) presented a severe prognosis, i.e. Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, use of mechanical ventilation or death. We used routinely-collected laboratory, clinical and demographic data to train five machine learning algorithms (artificial neural networks, extra trees, random forests, catboost, and extreme gradient boosting). We used a random sample of 70% of patients to train the algorithms and 30% were left for performance assessment, simulating new unseen data. In order to assess if the algorithms could capture general severe prognostic patterns, each model was trained by combining two out of three outcomes to predict the other. All algorithms presented very high predictive performance (average AUROC of 0.92, sensitivity of 0.92, and specificity of 0.82). The three most important variables for the multipurpose algorithms were ratio of lymphocyte per C-reactive protein, C-reactive protein and Braden Scale. The results highlight the possibility that machine learning algorithms are able to predict unspecific negative COVID-19 outcomes from routinely-collected data.

Prioritizing knowledge translation in low- and middle-income countries to support pandemic response and preparedness

The COVID-19 pandemic has created urgent demand around the world for knowledge generation about a novel coronavirus, its transmission, and control, putting academic institutions at the frontline of politics. While many academic institutions are well poised to conduct research, there are well-documented barriers for these institutions, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), to further conduct strategic synthesis and dissemination to promote knowledge utilization among policy-makers. These systemic barriers to knowledge translation (KT) pose significant challenges for academic institutions seeking to take advantage of unprecedented policy windows to inform evidence-based decision-making. Global health funding organizations should prioritize the support of academic institutions' activities along the KT pathway, including both knowledge generation and strategic dissemination, to improve knowledge uptake for decision-making to improve health. Institutional capacity-building initiatives for KT have the potential to profoundly impact responses to this and future pandemics.