Changes in cancer diagnoses and stage distribution during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA: a cross-sectional nationwide assessment

COVID-19 and Rates of Cancer Diagnosis in the US

Importance

US cancer diagnoses were substantially lower than expected during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. A national study on the extent to which rates recovered in 2021 has not yet been conducted.

Objective

To examine observed vs expected cancer rate trends for January 2020 to December 2021.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional, population-based study of cancer incidence trends used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 22 (SEER-22) Registries Database, which covers 47.9% of the US population. Included individuals were those with an invasive cancer diagnosis reported to registries included in SEER-22 between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2021.

Exposures

Age, sex, race and ethnicity, urbanicity, and stage at diagnosis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Expected cancer incidence rates were measured for the COVID-19 pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 from prepandemic trends using ensemble forecasting methods. Relative difference between observed and expected cancer incidence rates and numbers of potentially missed cases were measured.

Results

The SEER-22 registries reported 1 578 697 cancer cases in 2020 and 2021, including 798 765 among male individuals (50.6%) and 909 654 among persons aged 65 years or older (57.6%). Observed all-sites cancer incidence rates were lower than expected by 9.4% in 2020 (95% prediction interval [PI], 8.5%-10.5%), lower than expected by 2.7% in 2021 (95% PI, 1.4%-3.9%), and lower than expected by 6.0% across both years combined (95% PI, 5.1%-7.1%), resulting in 149 577 potentially undiagnosed cancer cases (95% PI, 126 059-176 970). Of the 4 screening-detected cancers, only female breast cancer showed significant recovery in 2021, exceeding expected rates by 2.5% (95% PI, 0.1%-4.8%), while significant reductions remained for lung cancer (9.1% lower than expected; 95% PI, 6.4%-13.2%) and cervical cancer (4.5% lower than expected; 95% PI, 0.4%-8.0%), particularly for early stage at diagnosis. Rates of all-sites cancer incidence returned to prepandemic trends in 2021 among female individuals, persons aged younger than 65 years, and persons of non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander race and ethnicity.

Conclusions and Relevance

This population-based cross-sectional study of US cancer incidence trends found that rates of diagnosis improved in 2021 but continued to be lower than expected, adding to the existing deficit of diagnosed cases from 2020. Particular attention should be directed at strategies to immediately increase cancer screenings to make up lost ground.

Disentangling the relationship between cancer mortality and COVID-19 in the US

Cancer is considered a risk factor for COVID-19 mortality, yet several countries have reported that deaths with a primary code of cancer remained within historic levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we further elucidate the relationship between cancer mortality and COVID-19 on a population level in the US. We compared pandemic-related mortality patterns from underlying and multiple cause (MC) death data for six types of cancer, diabetes, and Alzheimer's. Any pandemic-related changes in coding practices should be eliminated by study of MC data. Nationally in 2020, MC cancer mortality rose by only 3% over a pre-pandemic baseline, corresponding to ~13,600 excess deaths. Mortality elevation was measurably higher for less deadly cancers (breast, colorectal, and hematological, 2-7%) than cancers with a poor survival rate (lung and pancreatic, 0-1%). In comparison, there was substantial elevation in MC deaths from diabetes (37%) and Alzheimer's (19%). To understand these differences, we simulated the expected excess mortality for each condition using COVID-19 attack rates, life expectancy, population size, and mean age of individuals living with each condition. We find that the observed mortality differences are primarily explained by differences in life expectancy, with the risk of death from deadly cancers outcompeting the risk of death from COVID-19.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tumor Stage and Pathohistological Parameters of Vulvar Cancer

Background/Objectives: Vulvar cancer (VC) comprises a small fraction of female neoplasms with notable high-incidence clusters among German regions. Despite a proposed impact of nationwide lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on oncological diseases, the effect on VC staging and tumor characteristics remains yet to be resolved; therefore, analyzing pathological data from patients with squamous cell VC pre-, during, and post-COVID in a high-incidence region may offer insights into potential epidemiological and clinical trends. Methods: We identified a total of 90 patients who were diagnosed at the Institute of Pathology, University Hospital Saarland, between 2018 and 2023, and defined three distinct cohorts: a pre-COVID cohort (2018-2019), a COVID cohort (2020-2021), and a post-COVID cohort (2022-2023). Histomorphological data were collected from the individual patient reports and statistically analyzed using Fisher's exact test or the Kruskal-Wallis test. Results: Although we found no statistically significant differences in age, T-stage, perineural infiltration, blood vessel infiltration, resection status, grading, or resection margin between our three cohorts, surprisingly, we determined a greater extent of lymphovascular infiltration (Fisher's exact test; p = 0.041), as well as deeper tumor infiltration depth (Kruskal-Wallis test; p < 0.001) before the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, we did not identify any soft indications of abnormalities in patient care within our center (unchanged status of the resection margins across all three cohorts). Conclusions: Our results clearly do not support a negative affection of clinical or pathobiological characteristics of VC during or after the pandemic. However, final assessments regarding the pandemic's effect on VC require additional study approaches in various regions, preferably with future extended timeframes of a longer follow-up.

Laryngeal cancer incidence trends in the United States over 2000-2020: a population-based analysis

INTRODUCTION

Laryngeal cancers account for one-third of all head and neck cancers. We aimed to report the incidence trends of laryngeal cancer over 2000-2020 in the United States (US), by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and histological subtypes.

METHODS

Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 22 database were used to identify patients with laryngeal cancer based on the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, version 3. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) for laryngeal cancer, adjusted for reporting delays, were calculated. The Joinpoint Regression Program was then utilized to determine annual percent changes (APCs) and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in the trends. The analysis excluded data from 2020 to prevent potential bias related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

A total of 104,991 cases of laryngeal cancer were identified in the US from 2000 to 2019. Squamous cell carcinoma was the predominant subtype, accounting for 94.53% of cases. Above 73.20% occurred among non-Hispanic whites, with the highest incidence observed among individuals aged 55-69 years (46.71%). The ASIRs were 5.98 and 1.25 per 100,000 population for men and women, respectively. Over 2000-2019, there was a significant reduction in ASIRs for laryngeal cancer in both sexes. Non-Hispanic black men exhibited the highest ASIR (9.13 per 100,000) and the largest decline in the ASIRs over 2000-2019 (AAPC: -3.26%).

CONCLUSIONS

Laryngeal cancer incidence rates showed a decline from 2000 to 2019, in addition to 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additional research is required to investigate risk factors and their influence on incidence rates of laryngeal cancer.

Preventive Service Usage and New Chronic Disease Diagnoses: Using PCORnet Data to Identify Emerging Trends, United States, 2018-2022

Background

Data modernization efforts to strengthen surveillance capacity could help assess trends in use of preventive services and diagnoses of new chronic disease during the COVID-19 pandemic, which broadly disrupted health care access.

Methods

This cross-sectional study examined electronic health record data from US adults aged 21 to 79 years in a large national research network (PCORnet), to describe use of 8 preventive health services (N = 30,783,825 patients) and new diagnoses of 9 chronic diseases (N = 31,588,222 patients) during 2018 through 2022. Joinpoint regression assessed significant trends, and health debt was calculated comparing 2020 through 2022 volume to prepandemic (2018 and 2019) levels.

Results

From 2018 to 2022, use of some preventive services increased (hemoglobin A1c and lung computed tomography, both P < .05), others remained consistent (lipid testing, wellness visits, mammograms, Papanicolaou tests or human papillomavirus tests, stool-based screening), and colonoscopies or sigmoidoscopies declined (P < .01). Annual new chronic disease diagnoses were mostly stable (6% hypertension; 4% to 5% cholesterol; 4% diabetes; 1% colonic adenoma; 0.1% colorectal cancer; among women, 0.5% breast cancer), although some declined (lung cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or carcinoma in situ, cervical cancer, all P < .05). The pandemic resulted in health debt, because use of most preventive services and new diagnoses of chronic disease were less than expected during 2020; these partially rebounded in subsequent years. Colorectal screening and colonic adenoma detection by age group aligned with screening recommendation age changes during this period.

Conclusion

Among over 30 million patients receiving care during 2018 through 2022, use of preventive services and new diagnoses of chronic disease declined in 2020 and then rebounded, with some remaining health debt. These data highlight opportunities to augment traditional surveillance with EHR-based data.

Did the COVID-19 pandemic delay treatment for localized breast cancer patients? A multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Longer times between diagnosis and treatments of cancer patients have been estimated as effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, relatively few studies attempted to estimate actual delay to treatment at the patient level.

OBJECTIVE

To assess changes in delays to first treatment and surgery among newly diagnosed patients with localized breast cancer (BC) during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We used data from the PAPESCO-19 multicenter cohort study, which included patients from 4 French comprehensive cancer centers. We measured the delay to first treatment as the number of days between diagnosis and the first treatment regardless of whether this was neoadjuvant chemotherapy or surgery. COVID-19 pandemic exposure was estimated with a composite index that considered both the severity of the pandemic and the level of lockdown restrictions. We ran generalized linear models with a log link function and a gamma distribution to model the association between delay and the pandemic.

RESULTS

Of the 187 patients included in the analysis, the median delay to first treatment was 42 (IQR:32-54) days for patients diagnosed before and after the start of the 1st lockdown (N = 99 and 88, respectively). After adjusting for age and centers of inclusion, a higher composite pandemic index (> = 50 V.S. <50) had only a small, non-significant effect on times to treatment. Longer delays were associated with factors other than the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSION

We found evidence of no direct impact of the pandemic on the actual delay to treatment among patients with localized BC.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer screening in a large midwestern United States academic medical center

BACKGROUND

Access to breast screening mammogram services decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our objectives were to estimate: 1) the COVID-19 affected period, 2) the proportion of pandemic-associated missed or delayed screening encounters, and 3) pandemic-associated patient attrition in screening encounters overall and by sociodemographic subgroup.

METHODS

We included screening mammogram encounter EPIC data from 1-1-2019 to 12-31-2022 for females ≥40 years old. We used Bayesian State Space models to describe weekly screening mammogram counts, modeling an interruption that phased in and out between 3-1-2020 and 9-1-2020. We used the posterior predictive distribution to model differences between a predicted, uninterrupted process and the observed screening mammogram counts. We estimated associations between race/ethnicity and age group and return screening mammogram encounters during the pandemic among those with 2019 encounters using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Our analysis modeling weekly screening mammogram counts included 231,385 encounters (n = 127,621 women). Model-estimated screening mammograms dropped by >98% between 03-15-2020 and 05-24-2020 followed by a return to pre-pandemic levels or higher with similar results by race/ethnicity and age group. Among 79,257 women, non-Hispanic (NH) Asians, NH Blacks, and Hispanics had significantly (p < .05) lower odds of screening encounter returns during 2020-2022 vs. NH Whites with odds ratios (ORs) from 0.70 to 0.91. Among 79,983 women, those 60-69 had significantly higher odds of any return screening encounter during 2020-2022 (OR = 1.28), while those ≥80 and 40-49 had significantly lower odds (ORs 0.77, 0.45) than those 50-59 years old. A sensitivity analysis suggested a possible pre-existing pattern.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest a short-term pandemic effect on screening mammograms of ~2 months with no evidence of disparities. However, we observed racial/ethnic disparities in screening mammogram returns during the pandemic that may be at least partially pre-existing. These results may inform future pandemic planning and continued efforts to eliminate mammogram screening disparities.

Site-specific patterns of early-stage cancer diagnosis during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread disruptions in cancer care. We hypothesized that the greatest disruptions in diagnosis occurred in screen-detected cancers. We identified patients (≥18 years of age) with newly diagnosed cancer from 2019 to 2020 in the US National Cancer Database and calculated the change in proportion of early-stage to late-stage cancers using a weighted linear regression. Disruptions in early-stage diagnosis were greater than in late-stage diagnosis (17% vs 12.5%). Melanoma demonstrated the greatest relative decrease in early-stage vs late-stage diagnosis (22.9% vs 9.2%), whereas the decrease was similar for pancreatic cancer. Compared with breast cancer, cervical, melanoma, prostate, colorectal, and lung cancers showed the greatest disruptions in early-stage diagnosis. Uninsured patients experienced greater disruptions than privately insured patients. Disruptions in cancer diagnosis in 2020 had a larger impact on early-stage disease, particularly screen-detected cancers. Our study supports emerging evidence that primary care visits may play a critical role in early melanoma detection.

The Diagnostic Performance of Fecal Immunochemical Tests for Detecting Advanced Neoplasia at Surveillance Colonoscopy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

An increasing burden on health care resources has resulted in a backlog of individuals requiring colonoscopy, with delays in surveillance possibly detrimental for individuals at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). This study investigated the use of a 2-sample fecal immunochemical test (FIT) to establish those most likely to have advanced neoplasia (AN) and in need of prioritized surveillance colonoscopy.

METHODS

This was a prospective study conducted in the tertiary care setting. Participants completed a 2-sample FIT (OC-Sensor, Eiken Chemical Company) within 90 days of surveillance colonoscopy. The sensitivity of FIT for detection of AN (CRC or advanced adenoma) in moderate- and high-risk individuals was determined at fecal hemoglobin thresholds between 2 and 80 μg/g feces.

RESULTS

A total of 766 patients were included (median age, 66.1 years [interquartile range, 58.1-72.9]; 49.9% male), with AN detected in 8.6% (66/766, including 5 CRC). For moderate-risk individuals (with prior history of adenoma or a significant family history of CRC), sensitivity of FIT for AN ranged from 73.5% at 2 μg/g feces, to 10.2% at 80 μg/g feces. For high-risk conditions (confirmed/suspected genetic syndromes or prior CRC), sensitivity of FIT was similar, ranging from 70.6% at the lowest positivity threshold of 2 μg/g feces, to 11.8% at 80 μg/g feces. Independent variables in the whole cohort for association with detection of AN at surveillance colonoscopy were age (odds ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.06) and FIT hemoglobin result ≥10 μg/g feces (odds ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-3.16).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of FIT before surveillance colonoscopy provides clinicians with insights into the risk of AN. This raises the possibility of a method to triage individuals, facilitating the more efficient management of endoscopic resources.

Impact of plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA in posttreatment nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients after SARS-CoV-2 infection

BACKGROUND

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is prevalent in southern China. EBV DNA is the most useful biomarker in NPC. However, the value of EBV DNA in posttreatment NPC patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains unclear.

METHODS

Sixty-four eligible NPC patients were enrolled between December 2022 and February 2023. Patients who met the following criteria were included: had non-metastatic NPC, completed radical treatment, were first firstly infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their EBV DNA changed from undetectable to detectable.

RESULTS

At the end of follow-up, 81.25% (52/64) of patients were confirmed not to relapse with undetectable EBV DNA (no-relapse). In addition, 18.75% (12/64) of patients experienced relapse with consistent detection of EBV DNA (yes-relapse). For all 64 patients, the average time from diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to detection of detectable EBV DNA was 35.41 days (2 to 139 days). For 52 no-relapse patients, the average time from EBV DNA changing from detectable to undetectable was 63.12 days (6 to 147 days). The levels of EBV DNA were greater in yes-relapse patients than that in no-relapse patients, and the average of EBV DNA levels were 1216 copies/ml and 53.18 copies/ml, respectively. Using 62.3 copies/mL as the threshold, the area under the curve for EBV DNA was 0.88 for distinguishing yes-relapse patients from no-relapse patients. The sensitivity and specificity were 81.97% (95% CI 0.71-0.95) and 86.67% (95% CI 0.70-0.95), respectively.

CONCLUSION

For NPC patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, EBV DNA alone is insufficient for monitoring relapse after radical therapy. Long-term follow-up and underlying mechanistic investigations of EBV DNA changes are urgently needed.

Disparities in COVID-19 mortality amongst the immunosuppressed: A systematic review and meta-analysis for enhanced disease surveillance

BACKGROUND

Effective disease surveillance, including that for COVID-19, is compromised without a standardised method for categorising the immunosuppressed as a clinical risk group.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate whether excess COVID-associated mortality compared to the immunocompetent could meaningfully subdivide the immunosuppressed. Our study adhered to UK Immunisation against infectious disease (Green Book) criteria for defining and categorising immunosuppression. Using OVID (EMBASE, MEDLINE, Transplant Library, and Global Health), PubMed, and Google Scholar, we examined relevant literature between the entirety of 2020 and 2022. We selected for cohort studies that provided mortality data for immunosuppressed subgroups and immunocompetent comparators. Meta-analyses, grey literature and any original works that failed to provide comparator data or reported all-cause or paediatric outcomes were excluded. Odds Ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of COVID-19 mortality were meta-analysed by immunosuppressed category and subcategory. Subgroup analyses differentiated estimates by effect measure, country income, study setting, level of adjustment, use of matching and publication year. Study screening, extraction and bias assessment were performed blinded and independently by two researchers; conflicts were resolved with the oversight of a third researcher. PROSPERO registration number is CRD42022360755.

FINDINGS

We identified 99 unique studies, incorporating data from 1,542,097 and 56,248,181 unique immunosuppressed and immunocompetent patients with COVID-19 infection, respectively. Compared to immunocompetent people (pooled OR, 95%CI), solid organ transplants (2.12, 1.50-2.99) and malignancy (2.02, 1.69-2.42) patients had a very high risk of COVID-19 mortality. Patients with rheumatological conditions (1.28, 1.13-1.45) and HIV (1.20, 1.05-1.36) had just slightly higher risks than the immunocompetent baseline. Case type, setting income and mortality data matching and adjustment were significant modifiers of excess immunosuppressed mortality for some immunosuppressed subgroups.

INTERPRETATION

Excess COVID-associated mortality among the immunosuppressed compared to the immunocompetent was seen to vary significantly across subgroups. This novel means of subdivision has prospective benefit for targeting patient triage, shielding and vaccination policies during periods of high disease transmission.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Diagnosis and Management of Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer in the Head and Neck Region: A Retrospective Cohort Study

The present study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the management of Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer (NMSC) in the head and neck region. Conducted at the University Hospital "Le Scotte" in Siena, Italy, the research includes 111 patients treated from 2018 to 2021. The study aims to understand how pandemic-related healthcare changes affected NMSC treatment, focusing on differences in diagnosis and management before and during the pandemic. Methods involved retrospective analysis of patient demographics, clinical characteristics, lesion details, and treatment modalities, using Jamovi software (version 1.6) for statistical analysis. Results revealed the scalp as the most common NMSC site, with Squamous Cell Carcinoma (SCC) being the predominant histotype. A significant rise in Basal Cell Carcinoma (BCC) cases and a reduction in surgery duration were noted during the pandemic. The shift to local anesthesia was more pronounced, reflecting the necessity to adapt to healthcare limitations. Despite the disruptions caused by the pandemic, there was no significant drop in NMSC cases, which is attributed to the noticeable nature of head and neck lesions. In conclusion, this study highlights that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly influenced surgical practices in NMSC management, emphasizing the need for effective healthcare strategies that balance quality patient care with public health safety measures.

Lentinan progress in inflammatory diseases and tumor diseases

Shiitake mushrooms are a fungal food that has been recorded in Chinese medicine to nourish the blood and qi. Lentinan (lLNT) is an active substance extracted from shiitake mushrooms with powerful antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, anti-tumor functions. Inflammatory diseases and cancers are the leading causes of death worldwide, posing a serious threat to human life and health and posing enormous challenges to global health systems. There is still a lack of effective treatments for inflammatory diseases and cancer. LNT has been approved as an adjunct to chemotherapy in China and Japan. Studies have shown that LNT plays an important role in the treatment of inflammatory diseases as well as oncological diseases. Moreover, clinical experiments have confirmed that LNT combined with chemotherapy drugs has a significant effect in improving the prognosis of patients, enhancing their immune function and reducing the side effects of chemotherapy in lung cancer, colorectal cancer and gastric cancer. However, the relevant mechanism of action of the LNT signaling pathway in inflammatory diseases and cancer. Therefore, this article reviews the mechanism and clinical research of LNT in inflammatory diseases and tumor diseases in recent years.