Vaccine schedules and the effect on humoral and intestinal immunity against poliovirus: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024

Continued investment in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission, economics, and risks leads to their use in support of polio endgame strategy development and risk management policies. This study complements an earlier review covering the period 2000-2019 and discusses the evolution of studies published since 2020 by modeling groups supported by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners and others. We systematically review modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2020-2024.25 that focus on poliovirus transmission and health economic analyses. In spite of the long-anticipated end of poliovirus transmission and the GPEI sunset, which would lead to the end of its support for modeling, we find that the number of modeling groups supported by GPEI partners doubled and the rate of their publications increased. Modeling continued to play a role in supporting GPEI and national/regional policies, but changes in polio eradication governance, decentralized management and decision-making, and increased heterogeneity in modeling approaches and findings decreased the overall impact of modeling results. Meanwhile, the failure of the 2016 globally coordinated cessation of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine use for preventive immunization and the introduction of new poliovirus vaccines and formulation, increased the complexity and uncertainty of poliovirus transmission and economic models and policy recommendations during this time.

Use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine for poliovirus outbreak response

With continued wild poliovirus transmission in Afghanistan and Pakistan and circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus in certain countries, there exists an ongoing risk of importation of polioviruses into other countries, including those that have been polio-free for decades. Diversifying the poliovirus outbreak response toolkit is essential to account for different public health and epidemiological contexts. In this Personal View, we discuss data on intestinal and pharyngeal mucosal immunity induced by inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), previous programmatic experience of poliovirus outbreak response with IPV, and outbreak response guidelines in countries that exclusively use IPV. With recent reports of poliovirus detection in polio-free countries such as the USA and the UK, it is important to assess the interplay of virus transmission dynamics, vaccine impact on preventing paralysis and virus spread, and regulatory complexities of using oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and IPV options for outbreak response. As the global eradication programme navigates through cessation of routine OPV use with replacement by IPV and stockpiling of novel OPVs, clarity on the impact of IPV use will be important for informed decision making by global, regional, and national policy makers.

Development of innate and adaptive immunity to RSV in young children

Infection of the respiratory tract with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is common and occurs repeatedly throughout life with most severe disease occurring at the extremes of age: in young infants and the elderly. Effective anti-viral therapeutics are not available and therefore prevention has been the primary strategy for reducing the disease burden. Our current understanding of respiratory mucosal cell biology and the immune response within the respiratory tract is inadequate to prevent infection caused by a pathogen like RSV that does not disseminate outside of this environment. Gaps in our understanding of the activation of innate and adaptive immunity in response to RSV and the role of age upon infection also limit improvements in the design of therapeutics and vaccines for young infants. However, advancements in structural biology have improved our ability to characterize antibodies against viral proteins and in 2023 the first vaccines for those over 60 years and pregnant women became available, potentially reducing the burden of disease. This review will examine our current understanding of the critical facets of anti-RSV immune responses in infants and young children as well as highlight areas where more research is needed.

Novel Oral Polio Vaccine Type 2 Use for Polio Outbreak Response: A Global Effort for a Global Health Emergency

A sharp rise in circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks in the years following the cessation of routine use of poliovirus type 2-containing oral polio vaccine and the trend of seeding new emergences with suboptimal vaccination response during the same time-period led to the accelerated development of the novel oral polio vaccine type 2 (nOPV2), a vaccine with enhanced genetic stability and lower likelihood of reversion to neuroparalytic variants compared to its Sabin counterpart. In November 2020, nOPV2 became the first vaccine to be granted an Emergency Use Listing (EUL) by the World Health Organization (WHO) Prequalification Team (PQT), allowing close to a billion doses to be used by countries within three years after its first rollout and leading to full licensure and WHO prequalification (PQ) in December 2023. The nOPV2 development process exemplifies how scientific advances and innovative tools can be applied to combat global health emergencies in an urgent and adaptive way, building on a collaborative effort among scientific, regulatory and implementation partners and policymakers across the globe.

Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine: Recent Developments and the Tortuous Path to Global Acceptance

Inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), available since 1955, became the first vaccine to be used to protect against poliomyelitis. While the immunogenicity of IPV to prevent paralytic poliomyelitis continues to be irrefutable, its requirement for strong containment (due to large quantities of live virus used in the manufacturing process), perceived lack of ability to induce intestinal mucosal immunity, high cost and increased complexity to administer compared to oral polio vaccine (OPV), have limited its use in the global efforts to eradicate poliomyelitis. In order to harvest the full potential of IPV, a program of work has been carried out by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) over the past two decades that has focused on: (1) increasing the scientific knowledge base of IPV; (2) translating new insights and evidence into programmatic action; (3) expanding the IPV manufacturing infrastructure for global demand; and (4) continuing to pursue an ambitious research program to develop more immunogenic and safer-to-produce vaccines. While the knowledge base of IPV continues to expand, further research and product development are necessary to ensure that the program priorities are met (e.g., non-infectious production through virus-like particles, non-transmissible vaccine inducing humoral and intestinal mucosal immunity and new methods for house-to-house administration through micro-needle patches and jet injectors), the discussions have largely moved from whether to how to use this vaccine most effectively. In this review, we summarize recent developments on expanding the science base of IPV and provide insight into policy development and the expansion of IPV manufacturing and production, and finally we provide an update on the current priorities.

Does IPV Boost Intestinal Immunity among Children under Five Years of Age? An Experience from Pakistan

The oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) has been the mainstay of polio eradication, especially in low-income countries, and its use has eliminated wild poliovirus type 2. However, the inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) is safer than OPV, as IPV protects against paralytic poliomyelitis without producing adverse reactions. The present study compared mucosal and humoral responses to poliovirus vaccines administered to previously OPV-immunized children to assess the immunity gap in children in areas of high poliovirus transmission. A cluster-randomized trial was implemented in three high-risk districts of Pakistan-Karachi, Kashmore, and Bajaur-from June 2013 to May 2014. This trial was community-oriented and included three arms, focusing on healthy children below five years of age. The study involved the randomization of 387 clusters, of which 360 were included in the final analysis. The control arm (A) received the routine polio program bivalent poliovirus vaccine (bOPV). The second arm (B) received additional interventions, including health camps providing routine vaccinations and preventive maternal and child health services. In addition to the interventions in arm B, the third arm (C) was also provided with IPV. Blood and stool samples were gathered from children to evaluate humoral and intestinal immunity. The highest levels of poliovirus type 1 serum antibodies were observed in Group C (IPV + OPV). The titers for poliovirus type 2 (P2) and poliovirus type 3 (P3) were noticeably higher in those who had received a routine OPV dose than in those who had not across all study groups and visits. Providing an IPV booster after at least two OPV doses could potentially fill immunity gaps in regions where OPV does not show high efficacy. However, IPV only marginally enhances humoral immunity and fails to offer intestinal immunity, which is critical to stop the infection and spread of live poliovirus in populations that have not been exposed before.

Safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of inactivated poliovirus vaccine with or without E.coli double mutant heat-labile toxin (dmLT) adjuvant in healthy adults; a phase 1 randomized study

BACKGROUND

Inactivated trivalent poliovirus vaccine (IPV) induces humoral immunity, which protects against paralytic poliomyelitis but does not induce sufficient mucosal immunity to block intestinal infection. We assessed the intestinal immunity in healthy adults in Belgium conferred by a co-formulation of IPV with the mucosal adjuvant double mutant Labile Toxin (dmLT) derived from Escherichia coli.

METHODS

Healthy fully IPV-vaccinated 18-45-year-olds were randomly allocated to three groups: on Day 1 two groups received one full dose of IPV (n = 30) or IPV + dmLT (n = 30) in a blinded manner, and the third received an open-label dose of bivalent live oral polio vaccine (bOPV types 1 and 3, n = 20). All groups received a challenge dose of bOPV on Day 29. Participants reported solicited and unsolicited adverse events (AE) using study diaries. Mucosal immune responses were measured by fecal neutralization and IgA on Days 29 and 43, with fecal shedding of challenge viruses measured for 28 days. Humoral responses were measured by serum neutralizing antibody (NAb).

RESULTS

Solicited and unsolicited AEs were mainly mild-to-moderate and transient in all groups, with no meaningful differences in rates between groups. Fecal shedding of challenge viruses in both IPV groups exceeded that of the bOPV group but was not different between IPV and IPV + dmLT groups. High serum NAb responses were observed in both IPV groups, alongside modest levels of fecal neutralization and IgA.

CONCLUSIONS

Addition of dmLT to IPV administered intramuscularly neither affected humoral nor intestinal immunity nor decreased fecal virus shedding following bOPV challenge. The tolerability of the dose of dmLT used in this study may allow higher doses to be investigated for impact on mucosal immunity. Registered on ClinicalTrials.gov - NCT04232943.

Sustained detection of type 2 poliovirus in London sewage between February and July, 2022, by enhanced environmental surveillance

BACKGROUND

The international spread of poliovirus exposes all countries to the risk of outbreaks and is designated a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by WHO. This risk can be exacerbated in countries using inactivated polio vaccine, which offers excellent protection against paralysis but is less effective than oral vaccine against poliovirus shedding, potentially allowing circulation without detection of paralytic cases for long periods of time. Our study investigated the molecular properties of type 2 poliovirus isolates found in sewage with an aim to detect virus transmission in the community.

METHODS

We performed environmental surveillance in London, UK, testing sewage samples using WHO recommended methods that include concentration, virus isolation in cell culture, and molecular characterisation. We additionally implemented direct molecular detection and determined whole-genome sequences of every isolate using novel nanopore protocols.

FINDINGS

118 genetically linked poliovirus isolates related to the serotype 2 Sabin vaccine strain were detected in 21 of 52 sequential sewage samples collected in London between Feb 8 and July 4, 2022. Expansion of environmental surveillance sites in London helped localise transmission to several boroughs in north and east London. All isolates have lost two key attenuating mutations, are recombinants with a species C enterovirus, and an increasing proportion (20 of 118) meet the criterion for a vaccine-derived poliovirus, having six to ten nucleotide changes in the gene coding for VP1 capsid protein.

INTERPRETATION

Environmental surveillance allowed early detection of poliovirus importation and circulation in London, permitting a rapid public health response, including enhanced surveillance and an inactivated polio vaccine campaign among children aged 1-9 years. Whole-genome sequences generated through nanopore sequencing established linkage of isolates and confirmed transmission of a unique recombinant poliovirus lineage that has now been detected in Israel and the USA.

FUNDING

Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, UK Health Security Agency, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute for Health Research Medical Research Council.

Poliomyelitis is a current challenge: long-term sequelae and circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus

For more than 20 years, the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region (WPR) has been polio-free. However, two current challenges are still polio-related. First, around half of poliomyelitis elderly survivors suffer late poliomyelitis sequelae with a substantial impact on daily activities and quality of life, experiencing varying degrees of residual weakness as they age. The post-polio syndrome as well as accelerated aging may be involved. Second, after the worldwide Sabin oral poliovirus (OPV) vaccination, the recent reappearance of strains of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) circulating in the environment is worrisome and able to persistent person-to-person transmission. Such VDPV strains exhibit atypical genetic characteristics and reversed neurovirulence that can cause paralysis similarly to wild poliovirus, posing a significant obstacle to the elimination of polio. Immunization is essential for preventing paralysis in those who are exposed to the poliovirus. Stress the necessity of maintaining high vaccination rates because declining immunity increases the likelihood of reemergence. If mankind wants to eradicate polio in the near future, measures to raise immunization rates and living conditions in poorer nations are needed, along with strict observation. New oral polio vaccine candidates offer a promissory tool for this goal.

Epidemiology of type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks between 2016 and 2020

The number and geographic breadth of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks detected after the withdrawal of type 2 containing oral polio vaccine (April 2016) have exceeded forecasts.Using Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) investigations and environmental surveillance (ES) data from the Global Polio Laboratory Network, we summarize the epidemiology of cVDPV2 outbreaks. Between 01 January 2016 to 31 December 2020, a total of 68 unique cVDPV2 genetic emergences were detected across 34 countries. The cVDPV2 outbreaks have been associated with 1596 acute flaccid paralysis cases across four World Health Organization regions: 962/1596 (60.3%) cases occurred in African Region; 619/1596 (38.8%) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region; 14/1596 (0.9%) in Western-Pacific Region; and 1/1596 (0.1%) in the European Region. As the majority of the cVDPV2 outbreaks have been seeded through monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV2) use in outbreak responses, the introduction of the more stable novel oral poliovirus vaccine will be instrumental in stopping emergence of new cVDPV2 lineages.

Review of use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine in campaigns to control type 2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks

Delivering inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in campaigns has been explored to accelerate the control of type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks. A review of scientific literature suggests that among populations with high prevalence of OPV failure, a booster with IPV after at least two doses of OPV may close remaining humoral and mucosal immunity gaps more effectively than an additional dose of trivalent OPV. However, IPV alone demonstrates minimal advantage on humoral immunity compared with monovalent and bivalent OPV, and cannot provide the intestinal immunity that prevents infection and spread to those individuals not previously exposed to live poliovirus of the same serotype (i.e. type 2 for children born after the switch from trivalent to bivalent OPV in April 2016). A review of operational data from polio campaigns shows that addition of IPV increases the cost and logistic complexity of campaigns. As a result, campaigns in response to an outbreak often target small areas. Large campaigns require a delay to ensure logistics are in place for IPV delivery, and may need implementation in phases that last several weeks. Challenges to delivery of injectable vaccines through house-to-house visits also increases the risk of missing the children who are more likely to benefit from IPV: those with difficult access to routine immunization and other health services. Based upon this information, the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts in immunization (SAGE) recommended in October 2020 the following strategies: provision of a second dose of IPV in routine immunization to reduce the risk and number of paralytic cases in countries at risk of importation or new emergences; and use of type 2 OPV in high-quality campaigns to interrupt transmission and avoid seeding new type 2 cVDPV outbreaks.

Enabling accelerated vaccine roll-out for Public Health Emergencies of International Concern (PHEICs): Novel Oral Polio Vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) experience

To address the evolving risk of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2), Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners are working closely with countries to deploy an additional innovative tool for outbreak response - novel oral polio vaccine type 2 (nOPV2). The World Health Organization's (WHO) Prequalification program issued an Emergency Use Listing (EUL) recommendation for nOPV2 on 13 November 2020. The WHO's EUL procedure was created to assess and list unlicensed vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics to enable their use in response to a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). nOPV2 was the first vaccine to receive an EUL, paving the way for other emergency vaccines. In this report, we summarise the pathway for nOPV2 roll-out under EUL.

Microneedle patch as a new platform to effectively deliver inactivated polio vaccine and inactivated rotavirus vaccine

We recently reported a lack of interference between inactivated rotavirus vaccine (IRV) and inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) and their potential dose sparing when the two vaccines were administered intramuscularly either in combination or standalone in rats and guinea pigs. In the present study, we optimized the formulations of both vaccines and investigated the feasibility of manufacturing a combined IRV-IPV dissolving microneedle patch (dMNP), assessing its compatibility and immunogenicity in rats. Our results showed that IRV delivered by dMNP alone or in combination with IPV induced similar levels of RV-specific IgG and neutralizing antibody. Likewise, IPV delivered by dMNP alone or in combination with IRV induced comparable levels of neutralizing antibody of poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3. We further demonstrated high stability of IRV-dMNP at 5, 25, and 40 °C and IPV-dMNP at 5 and 25 °C, and found that three doses of IRV or IPV when co-administered at a quarter dose was as potent as a full target dose in inducing neutralizing antibodies against corresponding rotavirus or poliovirus. We conclude that IRV-IPV dMNP did not interfere with each other in triggering an immunologic response and were highly immunogenic in rats. Our findings support the further development of this innovative approach to deliver a novel combination vaccine against rotavirus and poliovirus in children throughout the world.

Risk factors for the spread of vaccine-derived type 2 polioviruses after global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine and the effects of outbreak responses with monovalent vaccine: a retrospective analysis of surveillance data for 51 countries in Africa

BACKGROUND

Expanding outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2) across Africa after the global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 2016 are delaying global polio eradication. We aimed to assess the effect of outbreak response campaigns with monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2) and the addition of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) to routine immunisation.

METHODS

We used vaccination history data from children under 5 years old with non-polio acute flaccid paralysis from a routine surveillance database (the Polio Information System) and setting-specific OPV immunogenicity data from the literature to estimate OPV-induced and IPV-induced population immunity against type 2 poliomyelitis between Jan 1, 2015, and June 30, 2020, for 51 countries in Africa. We investigated risk factors for reported cVDPV2 poliomyelitis including population immunity, outbreak response activities, and correlates of poliovirus transmission using logistic regression. We used the model to estimate cVDPV2 risk for each 6-month period between Jan 1, 2016, and June 30, 2020, with different numbers of mOPV2 campaigns and compared the timing and location of actual mOPV2 campaigns and the number of mOPV2 campaigns required to reduce cVDPV2 risk to low levels.

FINDINGS

Type 2 OPV immunity among children under 5 years declined from a median of 87% (IQR 81-93) in January-June, 2016 to 14% (9-37) in January-June, 2020. Type 2 immunity from IPV among children under 5 years increased from 3% (<1-6%) in January-June, 2016 to 35% (24-47) in January-June, 2020. The probability of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis among children under 5 years was negatively correlated with OPV-induced and IPV-induced immunity and mOPV2 campaigns (adjusted odds ratio: OPV 0·68 [95% CrI 0·60-0·76], IPV 0·82 [0·68-0·99] per 10% absolute increase in estimated population immunity, mOPV2 0·30 [0·20-0·44] per campaign). Vaccination campaigns in response to cVDPV2 outbreaks have been smaller and slower than our model shows would be necessary to reduce risk to low levels, covering only 11% of children under 5 years who are predicted to be at risk within 6 months and only 56% within 12 months.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that as mucosal immunity declines, larger or faster responses with vaccination campaigns using type 2-containing OPV will be required to stop cVDPV2 transmission. IPV-induced immunity also has an important role in reducing the burden of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis in Africa.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, and WHO.

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Mucosal immunity to poliovirus

A cornerstone of the global initiative to eradicate polio is the widespread use of live and inactivated poliovirus vaccines in extensive public health campaigns designed to prevent the development of paralytic disease and interrupt transmission of the virus. Central to these efforts is the goal of inducing mucosal immunity able to limit virus replication in the intestine. Recent clinical trials have evaluated new combined regimens of poliovirus vaccines, and demonstrated clear differences in their ability to restrict virus shedding in stool after oral challenge with live virus. Analyses of mucosal immunity accompanying these trials support a critical role for enteric neutralizing IgA in limiting the magnitude and duration of virus shedding. This review summarizes key findings in vaccine-induced intestinal immunity to poliovirus in infants, older children, and adults. The impact of immunization on development and maintenance of protective immunity to poliovirus and the implications for global eradication are discussed.

Fractional dose compared with standard dose inactivated poliovirus vaccine in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Since WHO recommended introduction of at least a single dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunisation schedules, there have been global IPV shortages. Fractional-dose IPV (fIPV) administration is one of the strategies to ensure IPV availability. We reviewed studies comparing the effects of fractional with full-dose IPV vaccination to determine when seroconversion proportions with each strategy become similar in children aged 5 years and younger.

METHOD

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched 16 databases in July, 2019, for trials and observational studies, including ongoing studies that compare immunogenicity and adverse events of fractional-dose (0·1 mL) to full-dose (0·5 mL) IPV in healthy children aged 5 years or younger regardless of study design, number of doses, and route of administration. Screening, selection of articles, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were done in duplicate, and conflicts were resolved by discussion or arbitration by a third author. We assessed immunogenicity, the main outcome, as proportion of seroconverted participants and changes in geometric mean titres of anti-poliovirus antibodies. Timepoints were eligible for analysis if measurements were done at least 4 weeks after vaccination. Summary estimates were pooled by use of random-effects meta-analysis. Analysis was stratified by study design, type of outcome measure, type of poliovirus, and number of doses given. We assessed heterogeneity using the χ² test of homogeneity and quantified it using the I² statistic. We assessed risk of bias using the Cochrane risk of bias tool, and the certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach. The study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42018092647.

FINDINGS

860 records were screened for eligibility, of which 36 potentially eligible full-text articles were assessed and 14 articles were included in the final analysis: two ongoing trials and 12 articles reporting on ten completed studies. For poliovirus type 2, there were no significant differences in the proportions of seroconversions between fractional and full doses of IPV for two or three doses: the risk ratio for serconversion at one dose was 0·61 (95% CI 0·51-0·72), at two doses was 0·90 (0·82-1·00), and at three doses was 0·95 (0·91-1·00). Geometric mean titres (GMTs) for poliovirus type 2 were lower for fIPV than for full-dose IPV: -0·51 (95% CI -0·87 to -0·14) at one dose, -0·49 (-0·70 to -0·28) at two doses, and -0·98 (-1·46 to -0·51) at three doses. The seroconversion meta-analysis for the three-dose comparison was homogeneous (p=0·45; I²=0%), whereas heterogeneity was observed in the two-dose (p<0·00001; I²=88%) and one-dose (p=0·0004; I²=74%) comparisons. Heterogeneity was observed in meta-analyses of GMTs for one-dose (p<0·00001; I²=92%), two-dose (p=0·002; I²=80%), and three-dose (p<0·00001; I²=93%) comparisons. Findings for types 1 and 3 were similar to those for type 2. The certainty of the evidence was high for the three-dose comparisons and moderate for the rest of the comparisons.

INTERPRETATION

There is no substantial difference in seroconversion between three doses of fIPV and three doses of full-dose IPV, although the full dose gives higher titres of antibodies for poliovirus type 1, 2, and 3. Use of fractional IPV instead of the full dose can stretch supplies and possibly lower the cost of vaccination.

FUNDING

South African Medical Research Council and the National Research Foundation of South Africa.

Intestinal antibody responses to two novel live attenuated type 2 oral poliovirus vaccines in healthy adults in Belgium

In a blinded phase 1 trial (EudraCT 2017-0000908-21; NCT03430349) in Belgium, healthy adults (aged 18–50 years) previously immunized exclusively with inactivated poliovirus vaccine were administered a single dose of 1 of 2 novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccines (nOPV2-c1: S2/cre5/S15domV/rec1/hifi3 (n = 15); nOPV2-c2: S2/S15domV/CpG40 (n = 15)) and isolated for 28 days in a purpose-built containment facility. Using stool samples collected near days 0, 14, 21, and 28, we evaluated intestinal neutralization and immunoglobulin A responses to the nOPV2s and found that nOPV2-c1 and nOPV2-c2 induced detectable poliovirus type 2–specific intestinal neutralizing responses in 40.0% and 46.7% of participants, respectively.

Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication

INTRODUCTION

Over the last 20 years (2000-2019) the partners of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) invested in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission as well as economics, policy, and risk analyses of polio endgame risk management options, including policies related to poliovirus vaccine use during the polio endgame.

AREAS COVERED

This review provides a historical record of the polio studies published by the three modeling groups that primarily performed the bulk of this work. This review also systematically evaluates the polio transmission and health economic modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2019, highlights differences in approaches and methods, shows the geographic coverage of the transmission modeling performed, identified common themes, and discusses instances of similar or conflicting insights or recommendations.

EXPERT OPINION

Polio modeling performed during the last 20 years substantially impacted polio vaccine choices, immunization policies, and the polio eradication pathway. As the polio endgame continues, national preferences for polio vaccine formulations and immunization strategies will likely continue to change. Future modeling will likely provide important insights about their cost-effectiveness and their relative benefits with respect to controlling polio and potentially achieving and maintaining eradication.