Assessment of varicella underreporting in Italy

Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella in Anhui Province, China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Study

BACKGROUND

Varicella is a mild, self-limited disease caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infection. Recently, the disease burden of varicella has been gradually increasing in China; however, the epidemiological characteristics of varicella have not been reported for Anhui Province.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021, which can provide a basis for the future study and formulation of varicella prevention and control policies in the province.

METHODS

Surveillance data were used to characterize the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021 in terms of population, time, and space. Spatial autocorrelation of varicella was explored using the Moran index (Moran I). The Kulldorff space-time scan statistic was used to analyze the spatiotemporal aggregation of varicella.

RESULTS

A total of 276,115 cases of varicella were reported from 2012 to 2021 in Anhui, with an average annual incidence of 44.8 per 100,000, and the highest incidence was 81.2 per 100,000 in 2019. The male-to-female ratio of cases was approximately 1.26, which has been gradually decreasing in recent years. The population aged 5-14 years comprised the high-incidence group, although the incidence in the population 30 years and older has gradually increased. Students accounted for the majority of cases, and the proportion of cases in both home-reared children (aged 0-7 years who are not sent to nurseries, daycare centers, or school) and kindergarten children (aged 3-6 years) has changed slightly in recent years. There were two peaks of varicella incidence annually, except for 2020, and the incidence was typically higher in the winter peak than in summer. The incidence of varicella in southern Anhui was higher than that in northern Anhui. The average annual incidence at the county level ranged from 6.61 to 152.14 per 100,000, and the varicella epidemics in 2018-2021 were relatively severe. The spatial and temporal distribution of varicella in Anhui was not random, with a positive spatial autocorrelation found at the county level (Moran I=0.412). There were 11 districts or counties with high-high clusters, mainly distributed in the south of Anhui, and 3 districts or counties with high-low or low-high clusters. Space-time scan analysis identified five possible clusters of areas, and the most likely cluster was distributed in the southeastern region of Anhui.

CONCLUSIONS

This study comprehensively describes the epidemiology and changing trend of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021. In the future, preventive and control measures should be strengthened for the key populations and regions of varicella.

Assessment of Pertussis Underreporting in Italy

A study was conducted to assess the degree of pertussis underreporting in Italy. An analysis was performed to compare the frequency of pertussis infections estimated using seroprevalence data with the pertussis incidence based on reported cases among the Italian population. For this purpose, the proportion of subjects who had an anti-PT ≥ 100 IU/mL (indicative of B. pertussis infection within the last 12 months) was compared with the reported incidence rate among the Italian population ≥5 years old, divided into two age groups (6-14 and ≥15 years old), obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) database. The pertussis incidence rate in the Italian population ≥5 years old reported by the ECDC in 2018 was 6.75/100,000 in the 5-14 age group and 0.28/100,000 in the ≥15 age group. The proportion of subjects recruited in the present study with an anti-PT ≥ 100 IU/mL was 0.95% in the 6-14 age group and 0.97% in the ≥15 age group. The estimated rate of pertussis infections based on seroprevalence was approximately 141-fold and 3452-fold higher than the reported incidence in the 6-14 age group and in the ≥15 age group, respectively. Quantification of underreporting can allow for the burden of pertussis, as well as the impact of ongoing vaccination, to be better evaluated.

Sero-Epidemiological Study of Varicella in the Italian General Population

The aim of this study was to analyze the seroprevalence of varicella in Italy and to evaluate the impact of varicella vaccination, which has been mandatory for newborns since 2017. The levels of VZV-specific IgG antibodies were determined by the ELISA method in residual serum samples obtained from subjects aged between 6 and 64 years and residing in 13 Italian regions. Overall, 3746 serum samples were collected in the years 2019 and 2020. The overall seroprevalence was 91.6% (89.9% in males and 93.3% in females; p = 0.0002). Seroprevalence showed an increasing trend (p < 0.0001) starting in the younger age groups: 6-9 years: 84.1%; 10-14 years: 88.7%; 15-19 years: 89.3%; 20-39 years: 93.1% and >40 years: 97.0%. The seroprevalence data obtained in the present study were compared with those relating to previous sero-epidemiological surveys conducted, respectively, in the years 1996-1997, 2003-2004 and 2013-2014, taking into consideration only data from regions monitored in all surveillance campaigns. The comparison highlighted for the period 2019-2020 showed significantly higher values in the age groups 6-9 (p < 0.001), 10-14 (p = 0.018) and 15-19 years (p = 0.035), while in adults, the trend did not change over time (ns). These results highlight the positive impact of varicella vaccination in Italy.

Reconstructing the transmission dynamics of varicella in Japan: an elevation of age at infection

BACKGROUND

In Japan, routine two-dose immunization against varicella has been conducted among children at ages of 12 and 36 months since 2014, and the vaccination coverage has reached around 90%. To understand the impact of routine varicella vaccination, we reconstructed the epidemiological dynamics of varicella in Japan.

METHODS

Epidemiological and demographic datasets over the past three decades were analyzed to reconstruct the number of susceptible individuals by age and year. To estimate the annual risk of varicella infection, we fitted a balance equation model to the annual number of cases from 1990 to 2019. Using parameter estimates, we reconstructed varicella dynamics starting from 1990 and modeled future dynamics until 2033.

RESULTS

Overall varicella incidence declined over time and the annual risk of infection among children younger than 10 years old decreased monotonically starting in 2014. Conversely, varicella incidence among teenagers (age 10 to 14 years) has increased each year since 2014. A substantial number of unvaccinated individuals born before the routine immunization era remained susceptible and aged without contracting varicella, while the annual risk of infection among teenagers aged 10 to 14 years increased starting in 2011 despite gradual expansion of varicella vaccine coverage. The number of susceptible individuals decreased over time in all age groups. Modeling indicated that susceptibility rates among pre-school children aged 1 to 4 years will remain low.

CONCLUSION

Routine varicella vaccination has successfully reduced infections in pre-school and early primary school age children, but has also resulted in increased infection rates among adolescents. This temporary increase was caused both by the increased age of susceptible individuals and increased transmission risk among adolescents resulting from the dynamic nature of varicella transmission. Monitoring susceptibility among adolescents will be important to prevent outbreaks over the next decade.

Clinically- versus serologically-identified varicella: A hidden infection burden. A ten-year follow-up from a randomized study in varicella-endemic countries

Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infections cause a substantial disease burden, which is underestimated due to incomplete reporting data and lack of serological surveillance. In this post-hoc analysis of a randomized, Phase IIIb clinical trial (NCT00226499) with a ten-year follow-up period, we report anti-VZV antibody levels and persistence in non-vaccinated children, as a varicella infection estimate in ten European countries with endemic varicella. The present analysis specifically focuses on clinical and serological data from the control group, which included 827 healthy participants aged 12–22 months who received two doses of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. The per-protocol cohort included 744 children for whom varicella occurrence was evaluated by clinical definitions, epidemiological links and PCR test outcomes. Anti-VZV antibody levels were assessed by ELISA. The primary objective of this analysis was to correlate varicella occurrence with anti-VZV antibody levels. Varicella was confirmed in 47% of MMR recipients. Among participants without reported varicella, the percentage of anti-VZV seropositive children increased to 75% and average anti-VZV antibody concentrations increased to 250 mIU/mL at year ten after vaccination, suggesting infection or exposure. An eight-fold increase in anti-VZV antibody concentrations between two consecutive visits, which is also observed after confirmed varicella, was detected in 37% of these participants during the follow-up period. About one-third of children not vaccinated against varicella and not diagnosed with varicella developed an anti-VZV immune response, suggesting subclinical varicella occurrence. Longitudinal studies combining serology and disease incidence are necessary to reliably estimate total varicella burden of infection.

A Study of Varicella Seroprevalence in a Pediatric and Adolescent Population in Florence (Italy). Natural Infection and Vaccination-Acquired Immunization

Background: Varicella is a well-known infectious disease that can have severe complications, also in young children. The Universal Varicella Vaccination (UVV) program was introduced in Tuscany (Italy) in 2003, with a two-dose vaccine schedule given to children between their 13th and 15th month, and at 5–6 years old, as a monovalent for varicella (V) or tetravalent (measles, mumps, rubella and varicella (MMRV)) formulation. Although varicella notifications have dramatically fallen in the last two decades, varicella disease underreporting remains a challenge. Methods: A qualitative immunoenzymatic test (ELISA) was used to measure the presence of anti-varicella antibodies in 165 sera of subjects aged 1–18 years residing in the province of Florence (Italy). Information regarding the anamnestic and vaccination status (including disease notification) was also collected. Results: Our study showed an overall varicella seropositivity of 75.8% (reaching the maximum at 96.3% in the 15–18 years age group). We found that varicella disease notification had been recorded for only 7/165 subjects; however, since 42/165 recalled having had the disease, we can hypothesize that some of them must have been underreported. Furthermore, our study showed that the presence of antibodies after the varicella vaccination remained over time, lasting up to 12 years. Conclusions: Although varicella seroprevalence is <95% in almost all our age groups (except for the 15–18 years age group), our data are encouraging and reflect the success of the introduction of the UVV program and the vaccination campaigns promoted in the Tuscany region.

Spatiotemporal distribution and determinants of measles incidence during a large outbreak, Italy, September 2016 to July 2018

Background

Measles is still endemic in Italy and outbreaks are frequent. From 2016 to 2018, more than 7,000 measles cases were reported to the national integrated measles and rubella surveillance system, the largest outbreak since implementation of this system.

Aim

We aimed to describe the characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of measles cases in Italy and explore determinants of incidence at municipality level.

Methods

We performed a retrospective observational study, mapping by municipalityall measles cases reported to the national surveillance system with symptom onset between 1 September 2016 and 31 July 2018. We also analysed measles–mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage (VC) data (2000–2017) for the first and second dose, collected from the Ministry of Health. We used regression analysis to explore factors associated with measles incidence at municipality level.

Results

We analysed 7,854 cases, 3,927 (50%) female. Median age was 26 years; 475 cases (6%) were younger than 1 year. The outbreak occurred in two epidemic waves. The first started in central/northern regions (end of 2016), the second (mostly within 2018) was concentrated in southern regions. In 2016 and 2017, national VC was below 95% for both MMR doses. In 2017, only one region reported VC above 95% for the first dose. At municipality level, incidence was associated with higher urbanisation, less deprivation and fewer adults.

Conclusion

The spread of measles between September 2016 and July 2018 in Italy indicates the need to improve VC and to explore further how societal and other parameters might be linked to incidence.

Spatiotemporal Epidemiology of Varicella in Chongqing, China, 2014-2018

Although immunization against varicella using vaccines has been proven to be significant and effective in the past decades, varicella remains a major public health concern for many developing countries. Varicella vaccination has not been introduced into routine immunization programs in China, and varicella outbreaks have continued to occur. Taking the city of Chongqing, which has a high prevalence of varicella, as an example, this study explored the spatiotemporal epidemiology of varicella. Based on the reported data of varicella cases from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2018 in Chongqing, hot spots and space-time clusters of varicella were identified using spatial autocorrelation analysis and scan statistics. Within this period, a total of 112,273 varicella cases were reported in Chongqing (average annual incidence: 73.44 per 100,000), including one death. The incidence of varicella showed an increasing trend with significant seasonal peaks, which occurred during April to July and October to January of the following year. The total ratio of male to female patients affected was 1.10:1. Children under the age of 15 and students accounted for the majority of the patient population. The hotspots detected through local spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the most likely clusters identified by scan analysis, were primarily in the main urban districts of Chongqing. The secondary clusters were mostly detected in northeast and southwest Chongqing. There were obvious spatial dependence and spatiotemporal clustering characteristics of varicella in Chongqing from 2014 to 2018. High-risk districts, populations, and peak periods were found in this study, which could be helpful in implementing varicella prevention and control programs, and in adjusting vaccination strategies for the varicella vaccine based on actual conditions.

Evaluation of the effect of chickenpox vaccination on shingles epidemiology using agent-based modeling

BACKGROUND

Biological interactions between varicella (chickenpox) and herpes zoster (shingles), two diseases caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV), continue to be debated including the potential effect on shingles cases following the introduction of universal childhood chickenpox vaccination programs. We investigated how chickenpox vaccination in Alberta impacts the incidence and age-distribution of shingles over 75 years post-vaccination, taking into consideration a variety of plausible theories of waning and boosting of immunity.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based model representing VZV disease, transmission, vaccination states and coverage, waning and boosting of immunity in a stylized geographic area, utilizing a distance-based network. We derived parameters from literature, including modeling, epidemiological, and immunology studies. We calibrated our model to the age-specific incidence of shingles and chickenpox prior to vaccination to derive optimal combinations of duration of boosting (DoB) and waning of immunity. We conducted paired simulations with and without implementing chickenpox vaccination. We computed the count and cumulative incidence rate of shingles cases at 10, 25, 50, and 75 years intervals, following introduction of vaccination, and compared the difference between runs with vaccination and without vaccination using the Mann-Whitney U-test to determine statistical significance. We carried out sensitivity analyses by increasing and lowering vaccination coverage and removing biological effect of boosting.

RESULTS

Chickenpox vaccination led to a decrease in chickenpox cases. The cumulative incidence of chickenpox had dropped from 1,254 cases per 100,000 person-years pre chickenpox vaccination to 193 cases per 100,000 person-years 10 years after the vaccine implementation. We observed an increase in the all-ages shingles cumulative incidence at 10 and 25 years post chickenpox vaccination and mixed cumulative incidence change at 50 and 75 years post-vaccination. The magnitude of change was sensitive to DoB and ranged from an increase of 22-100 per 100,000 person-years at 10 years post-vaccination for two and seven years of boosting respectively (p < 0.001). At 75 years post-vaccination, cumulative incidence ranged from a decline of 70 to an increase of 71 per 100,000 person-years for two and seven years of boosting respectively (p < 0.001). Sensitivity analyses had a minimal impact on our inferences except for removing the effect of boosting.

DISCUSSION

Our model demonstrates that over the longer time period, there will be a reduction in shingles incidence driven by the depletion of the source of shingles reactivation; however in the short to medium term some age cohorts may experience an increase in shingles incidence. Our model offers a platform to further explore the relationship between chickenpox and shingles, including analyzing the impact of different chickenpox vaccination schedules and cost-effectiveness studies.

Impact of vaccination programs against measles, varicella and meningococcus C in Italy and in Tuscany and public health policies in the last decades

The World Health Organization (WHO) has established specific targets for control, elimination or eradication of some vaccine preventable infectious diseases, which were periodically updated. In Italy, WHO recommendations have been endorsed and implemented over time, through the national and regional health prevention plans. The aim of the study was to assess the impact of the immunization practices against measles, varicella and Neisseria meningitidis type C (Men C) in Italy and in Tuscany Region, during the last decades, by analyzing national and regional surveillance databases. Benefits of vaccination strategies were discussed from different points of view (clinical, epidemiological, economic, ethical, social and communicative). The implementation of measles, varicella and Men C vaccination, caused a considerable decrease of incidence rates over the years in Italy and in Tuscany too. However, in the last years, notifications of measles and Men C cases in subjects not targeted by immunization campaigns, in Italy and in Tuscany, are a cause for concern for public health and for the achievement of the elimination goals. Achieving and maintaining high vaccine coverage guarantees a decrease in the incidence of serious diseases and their clinical and economic consequences, but it is necessary to strengthen surveillance system of infectious diseases in order to monitor epidemiological trends. Moreover, outreach campaigns are necessary to raise awareness in the general population and create the culture of prevention with the same nationwide health goals for all.

The changing epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster in Hong Kong before universal varicella vaccination in 2014

In Hong Kong, universal varicella vaccination started in July 2014. Before this, children could receive varicella vaccine via the private market. We analysed the epidemiology of varicella and zoster before universal vaccination. We estimated varicella vaccination coverage through surveys in preschool children. We estimated the burden of varicella and zoster with varicella notifications from 1999/00 to 2013/14, Accident and Emergency Department (A&E) attendance and inpatient admissions to public hospitals from 2004/05 to 2013/14. We fitted a catalytic model to serological data on antibodies against varicella-zoster virus to estimate the force of infection. We found that varicella vaccination coverage gradually increased to about 50% before programme inception. In children younger than 5 years, the annual rate of varicella notifications, varicella admission and zoster A&E attendance generally declined. The annual notification, A&E attendance and hospitalisation rate of varicella and zoster generally increased for individuals between 10 and 59 years old. Varicella serology indicated an age shift during the study period towards a higher proportion of infections in slightly older individuals, but the change was most notable before vaccine licensure. In conclusion, we observed a shift in the burden of varicella to slightly older age groups with a corresponding increase in incidence but it cannot necessarily be attributed to private market vaccine coverage alone. Increasing varicella vaccination uptake in the private market might affect varicella transmission and epidemiology, but not to the level of interrupting transmission.

The impact of immunization programs on 10 vaccine preventable diseases in Italy: 1900-2015

BACKGROUND

Vaccination has determined a dramatic decline in morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases over the last century. However, low perceived risk of the infectious threat and increased concern about vaccines' safety led to a reduction in vaccine coverage, with increased risk of disease outbreaks.

METHODS

Annual surveillance data of nationally communicable infectious diseases in Italy between 1900 and 2015 were used to derive trends in morbidity and mortality rates before and after vaccine introduction, focusing particularly on the effect of vaccination programs. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were applied to ten vaccine-preventable diseases: diphtheria, tetanus, poliomyelitis, hepatitis B, pertussis, measles, mumps, rubella, chickenpox, and invasive meningococcal disease. Results of these models referring to data before the immunization programs were projected on the vaccination period to estimate expected cases. The difference between observed and projected cases provided estimates of cases avoided by vaccination.

RESULTS

The temporal trend for each disease started with high incidence rates, followed by a period of persisting reduction. After vaccine introduction, and particularly after the recommendation for universal use among children, the current rates were much lower than those forecasted without vaccination, both in the whole population and among the 0-to-4 year olds, which is, generally, the most susceptible age class. Assuming that the difference between incidence rates before and after vaccination programs was attributable only to vaccine, more than 4 million cases were prevented, and nearly 35% of them among children in the early years of life. Diphtheria was the disease with the highest number of prevented cases, followed by mumps, chickenpox and measles.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal vaccination programs represent the most effective prevention tool against infectious diseases, having a major impact on human health. Health authorities should make any effort to strengthen public confidence in vaccines, highlighting scientific evidence of vaccination benefits.

A systematic review of varicella seroprevalence in European countries before universal childhood immunization: deriving incidence from seroprevalence data

Surveillance systems for varicella in Europe are highly heterogeneous or completely absent. We estimated the varicella incidence based on seroprevalence data, as these data are largely available and not biased by under-reporting or underascertainment. We conducted a systematic literature search for varicella serological data in Europe prior to introduction of universal varicella immunization. Age-specific serological data were pooled by country and serological profiles estimated using the catalytic model with piecewise constant force of infection. From the estimated profiles, we derived the annual incidence of varicella infection (/100·000) for six age groups (<5, 5–9, 10–14, 15–19, 20–39 and 40–65 years). In total, 43 studies from 16 countries were identified. By the age of 15 years, over 90% of the population has been infected by varicella in all countries except for Greece (86·6%) and Italy (85·3%). Substantial variability across countries exists in the age-specific annual incidence of varicella primary infection among the <5 years old (from 7052 to 16 122 per 100 000) and 5–9 years old (from 3292 to 11 798 per 100 000). The apparent validity and robustness of our estimates highlight the importance of serological data for the characterization of varicella epidemiology, even in the absence of sampling or assay standardization.

Underreporting of congenital rubella in Italy, 2010-2014

In accordance with the goals of the World Health Organization Regional Committee for Europe, the Italian national Measles and Rubella Elimination Plan 2010-2015 aimed to reduce the incidence of congenital rubella cases to <1 case/100,000 live births by 2015. In Italy, a passive national surveillance system for congenital rubella and rubella in pregnancy is active since 2005. We estimated the degree of underreporting of congenital rubella, performing a capture-recapture analysis of cases detected through two independent sources: the national surveillance system and the national hospital discharge database, in the years 2010-2014. We found that 6 out of 11 cases tracked in the retrospective case-finding from hospital registries had not been notified to the surveillance system, and we estimated a degree of underreporting of 53% for the period 2010-2014. This approach showed to be simple to perform, repeatable, and effective.

CONCLUSION

In order to reduce underreporting, some actions aimed at strengthening surveillance procedures are needed. The adoption on a routine basis of the review of hospital discharge registries for case-finding, monthly zero-reporting, and actions to train and sensitize all the specialists involved in the care of pregnant women and the newborns to notification procedures are recommended. What is Known • In Italy, the incidence of congenital rubella was below the WHO target of 1/100,000 live births in 2005-2015, except for two peaks in 2008 and 2012 (5 and 4/100,000, respectively). • Further efforts are required to improve congenital rubella surveillance so that it is more sensitive and specific. The WHO proposes retrospective case-finding from hospital records as an alternative approach to detect infants with congenital rubella. What is New • Underreporting of congenital rubella in Italy was 53% in 2010-2014. • Hospital discharge registries resulted to be an appropriate source to detect congenital rubella cases.

Estimation of the burden of varicella in Europe before the introduction of universal childhood immunization

BACKGROUND

Varicella is generally considered a mild disease. Disease burden is not well known and country-level estimation is challenging. As varicella disease is not notifiable, notification criteria and rates vary between countries. In general, existing surveillance systems do not capture cases that do not seek medical care, and most are affected by underreporting and underascertainment. We aimed to estimate the overall varicella disease burden in Europe to provide critical information to support decision-making regarding varicella vaccination.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review to identify all available epidemiological data on varicella IgG antibody seroprevalence, primary care and hospitalisation incidence, and mortality. We then developed methods to estimate age-specific varicella incidence and annual number of cases by different levels of severity (cases in the community, health care seekers in primary care and hospitals, and deaths) for all countries belonging to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) region and Switzerland.

RESULTS

In the absence of universal varicella immunization, the burden of varicella would be substantial with a total of 5.5 million (95% CI: 4.7-6.4) varicella cases occurring annually across Europe. Variation exists between countries but overall the majority of cases (3 million; 95% CI: 2.7-3.3) would occur in children <5 years. Annually, 3-3.9 million patients would consult a primary care physician, 18,200-23,500 patients would be hospitalised, and 80 varicella-related deaths would occur (95% CI: 19-822).

CONCLUSIONS

Varicella disease burden is substantial. Most cases occur in children <5 years old but adults require hospitalisation more often and are at higher risk of death. This information should be considered when planning and evaluating varicella control strategies. A better understanding of the driving factors of country-specific differences in varicella transmission and health care utilization is needed. Improving and standardizing varicella surveillance in Europe, as initiated by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), is important to improve data quality to facilitate inter-country comparison.

Preparing to introduce the varicella vaccine into the Italian immunisation programme: varicella-related hospitalisations in Tuscany, 2004-2012

A universal immunisation programme against varicella in the form of the measles-mumps-rubella-varicella (MMRV) vaccine for toddlers aged 13-15 months was introduced in Tuscany in July 2008. An assessment of the impact of this programme on varicella-related hospitalisations 4 years after its introduction could further support its adoption at a national level. The hospitalisation data were analysed in two periods: pre-vaccination (2004-2007) and vaccination period (2009-2012). The high coverage of the vaccines (84% in 2012) resulted in a significant decline in notifications, from 33,114 (2004-2007) to 13,184 cases (2009-2012), and also of hospitalisations, from 584 (pre-vaccination period) to 325 (vaccination period). The hospitalisation rate was 4.1 per 100,000 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 3.4-4.7) before the introduction of vaccination, which dropped to 2.2 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.7-2.7) in the vaccination period (hospitalisation risk ratios: 0.54; 95% CI:  0.472-0.619). The reduction was most significant in the youngest age groups. The introduction of universal vaccination has already led to a significant decline in hospitalisations due to varicella after just 4 years of implementation. Hospitalisation rates fell noticeably among younger individuals involved in the vaccination programme. The decrease in hospitalisation rate in the older age groups suggests a possible indirect protection.

Burden of varicella in Italy, 2001-2010: analysis of data from multiple sources and assessment of universal vaccination impact in three pilot regions

Varicella represents the most widespread vaccine-preventable childhood infectious disease in Italy. The purpose of this retrospective study was to assess the burden of varicella in Italy and in three regions that first implemented universal varicella vaccination. Four data sources were analysed: statutory notification data, the National Hospital Discharge Database, mortality data, and the vaccination coverage reached in Sicilia, Veneto and Apulia. The incidence rates per 100,000 population were calculated using the Italian resident population provided by the Italian Institute of Statistics in 2001-2010. In 2001-2010, the mean annual incidence of notifications of varicella was 150.7 cases per 100,000 population, reaching 948.6 cases per 100,000 population in the paediatric age group. The annual incidence declined to 102.6 per 100,000 population in 2010. During the period considered, 20,295 hospitalizations for varicella were observed. The mean annual incidence was 3.4 per 100,000 population, reaching a minimum of 2.5 per 100,000 in 2009 and 2010. Of the hospitalizations, 68.4% occurred in the paediatric age group. The median length of hospital stay was 4 days. During 2001-2003 and 2006-2010, 33 deaths were reported. In the three regions considered, vaccination coverage increased steadily, reaching 81.5% in Sicily, 79.4% in Veneto and 75.6% in Apulia in 2010. During the same period, hospitalization and notification rates decreased significantly. This study demonstrated that varicella continues to represent a relevant health problem in Italy, especially in the paediatric age group. Data obtained from the three Italian regions that first introduced universal vaccination demonstrated that vaccination reduces the incidence of varicella and hospitalization rates.

Impact of universal vaccination against varicella in Italy

In Italy, the introduction of Universal Varicella Vaccination (UVV) has been decided but postponed, as a national programme, until 2015, when data from Regions which have already implemented it will be available. Starting from 2003, eight Italian Regions (Basilicata, Calabria, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Apulia, Sardinia, Sicily, Tuscany and Veneto) have progressively introduced UVV, in their immunization programme, with different schedules in children aged 13-15 months and 5-6 years, currently a two-dose schedule is adopted by all Regions. In June 2013, an Interregional Group on Varicella Vaccination (IGVV) has been established in order to assess the effectiveness of varicella vaccination with standardized and shared tools. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of varicella vaccination on the incidence and hospitalizations due to varicella and its complications in the period 2003-2012 in order to support the Italian decision makers on the future national adoption. Preliminary data showed that a general reduction of incidence and hospitalization rates was observed in the study period, resulting in relevant savings for the National Health Service. Immunization coverage with first dose at 24 months of age was high in all Regions (84%-95%) in 2012. Adverse events due to varicella vaccines were rare and without permanent sequelae. Underreporting of varicella cases and delays in the administration of the first dose of varicella vaccines were the main critical issues. In conclusion, solid evidences in support of universal UVV arise from the experiences available today in Italy.

Trends of human brucellosis in Italy, 1998-2010

SUMMARY

We describe the epidemiological trends and spatial distribution of human brucellosis in Italy over 13 years (1998-2010). In the study period 8483 cases were notified in Italy, with a relevant decrease (-89%) from 1998 to 2010. Most cases were notified in southern Italy (Campania, Apulia, Calabria, Sicily). In these regions we observed relevant differences in the risk of brucellosis at province level. Cases were distributed with a seasonal pattern, male patients represented 60% of the cases and no significant differences were observed between age groups. We modelled the underreporting rate that ranged between 2 and 21 (average 12·5). According to our estimates the true number of cases would have ranged from 41 821 to 155 324 providing a far more severe picture of human brucellosis in Italy than the one provided by the surveillance system.

Susceptibility to varicella-zoster among pregnant women in the province of Lecce, Italy

BACKGROUND

Varicella is predominantly a childhood disease, considered a mild self-limiting disease that can have serious complications for a pregnant woman and her developing fetus.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the susceptibility to varicella-zoster Virus (VZV) among pregnant women in the province of Lecce.

STUDY DESIGN

A cross-sectional study was carried out in Departments of Gynecology and Obstetrics of the Province of Lecce, where 539 pregnant women were recruited, and face-to-face interviews were conducted. Varicella IgG tests were performed.

RESULTS

The prevalence of varicella susceptibility among pregnant mothers was 10.6%. The prevalence of IgG antibodies increases significantly with increasing age, from 62.5% in the age group 15-19 years to 94.4% in the age group 40-49 years.

DISCUSSION

In the Italian National Vaccination Plan 2005-2007, varicella vaccine is only recommended for childbearing women. A safe and effective vaccine is available and no abnormalities have been observed among infants born to susceptible women who received varicella vaccines during pregnancy. Such a high number of susceptible women indicates that preventive and informative programs should be introduced, even among those who do not plan to become pregnant. Routine counselling, varicella IgG antibody screening and varicella vaccination should be considered if they have no history of the infection, to reduce the risk of fetal complications and the cost of healthcare associated with the infection.

Impact of universal vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella in Veneto, Italy

In 2005, universal varicella vaccination was introduced in the Veneto region, Italy. We examined trends in varicella incidence and hospitalization rates before and after vaccine introduction, and applied statistical models to assess vaccine effectiveness. Varicella incidence rates for 2000-2008 were calculated from the mandatory regional surveillance data and from a special surveillance system based on reports from a sample of family pediatricians that during the study period followed more than 40,000 children. To evaluate hospital admission rates, we analyzed the regional hospital discharge registry. The vaccine coverage rate was 6.8% in the 2004 birth-cohort and 78.6% in the 2008 cohort. Varicella incidence in 0-14 year-olds was 6136.8/100,000 person-years in 2000 and 4004.8 in 2008; hospitalization rates were 18.7 and 8.4. Incidence rates significantly decreased 2.5 years after beginning the universal vaccination, while hospitalization rates showed a significant decrease one year earlier. There was a remarkable decline of both varicella incidence and hospitalizations especially in 1-4 year-old children. This study confirms the positive impact of universal vaccination.

The epidemiology of Varicella Zoster Virus infection in Italy

Background

The epidemiological importance of varicella and zoster and the availability of an efficacious and safe vaccine have led to an important international debate regarding the suitability of mass vaccination. The objective of the study was to describe the epidemiology of varicella and zoster in Italy and to determine whether there have been changes with respect to observations provided by an analogous study conducted 8 years ago, in order to define the most appropriate vaccination strategy.

Methods

A number of data sources were evaluated, a cross-sectional population-based seroprevalence study was conducted on samples collected in 2004, and the results were compared with data obtained in 1996.

Results

The data from active and passive surveillance systems confirm that varicella is a widespread infectious disease which mainly affects children. VZV seroprevalence did not substantially differ from that found in the previous study. The sero-epidemiological profile in Italy is different from that in other European countries. In particular, the percentage of susceptible adolescents is at least nearly twice as high as in other European countries and in the age group 20–39 yrs, approximately 9% of individuals are susceptible to VZV.

Conclusion

The results of this study can contribute to evaluating the options for varicella vaccination. It is possible that in a few years, in all Italian Regions, there will exist the conditions necessary for implementing a mass vaccination campaign and that the large-scale availability of MMRV tetravalent vaccines will facilitate mass vaccination.

Economic evaluation of varicella vaccination in Italian children and adolescents according to different intervention strategies: the burden of uncomplicated hospitalised cases

An economic evaluation of universal varicella vaccination in Italy was performed to assess the potential clinical and economic effects of three different strategies versus no vaccination. By means of the EVITA model, vaccination with two doses in toddlers only (1-1.5 years), adolescents only (13 years) and toddlers with adolescents catch-up programmes were simulated. All universal varicella vaccination strategies including toddlers (with or without an adolescent catch-up programme) turned out to be highly effective in reducing the burden of disease due to varicella. In addition, they lead to significant net savings from the societal perspective but to higher costs compared to return of investment from National Health Service perspective. The huge economic burden of hospitalised uncomplicated varicella cases registered in Italy can partially explain these highly beneficial findings for the societal perspective. Overall, our analysis confirmed the favourable clinical and economic impact of routine varicella vaccination with two doses of vaccine in Italy.

Varicella vaccination in Japan, South Korea, and Europe

The most extensive use of varicella vaccine has been in the United States and Canada, where it is universally recommended. However, a number of other countries now have recommendations for use of the vaccine, which has been expanding in Europe and Latin America. In this article, we review information concerning varicella vaccination in Japan, where the vaccine was first developed, and in South Korea and parts of Europe. Despite the worldwide availability of an efficient vaccine, varicella vaccination policy is highly variable from country to country. The recent development of a tetravalent vaccine against measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella could modify this variability in the future. It is evident that efforts to control varicella will spread gradually to all continents.

Varicella vaccination in Europe: are we ready for a universal childhood programme?

Safe and effective vaccines against varicella zoster virus (VZV), the aetiological agent of varicella and shingles, have been available in Europe for the last 5-10 years. The USA has had a universal childhood vaccination policy since 1995 and this has resulted in a dramatic decrease in the incidence, morbidity and mortality related to varicella. The economic and medical burden of VZV has led to discussions regarding both the desirability and feasibility of a similar routine immunisation policy for all European children. This article examines the epidemiology of varicella in Europe and how the data emerging from the USA can be used to achieve adequate prevention of the disease. It looks into the current evidence of the health economic evaluation of universal varicella vaccination and explores the concerns surrounding such a policy, including the postulated impact on the incidence of zoster. In conclusion, the Society of Independent European Vaccination Experts (SIEVE) recommends that the immunisation of susceptible adolescents needs to be urgently implemented, in addition to the current recommendations targeting high-risk patients, their close contacts with a negative history of varicella and seronegative health-care workers. A universal policy, optimally incorporating a two-dose schedule, will be needed to finally reduce the burden of disease of varicella from a societal point of view. The SIEVE recommends the implementation of such a policy as soon as financially and practically possible.

The comparative sero-epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in 11 countries in the European region

The European sero-epidemiology network (ESEN2) aims to standardise serological surveillance of varicella zoster virus (VZV) in 11 participant countries. In each country, serum banks were collected between 1996 and 2003 and tested for VZV antibodies. Assay results were standardised so that international comparisons could be made. Age-specific forces of infection were calculated for three age groups (<5, 5-9 and >or=10 years of age) and used to estimate the base reproduction number (R(0)) and the herd immunity threshold (H). Most VZV infection occurred in childhood, but there was a wide variation in transmissibility, with R(0) ranging from 16.9 in the Netherlands to 3.3 in Italy. Herd immunity thresholds varied from 70% in Italy to 94% in the Netherlands. There are substantial differences in VZV sero-epidemiology within the European region, which will need to be taken into account in designing national policies regarding VZV vaccination.

How increased pertussis vaccination coverage is changing the epidemiology of pertussis in Italy

The epidemiology of pertussis in Italy is described by using data from the statutory notification system and from seroepidemiology studies. Starting from the 1990s, the incidence of pertussis in Italy has shown a sharp decline and is now at the lowest level ever reached. During this time period vaccination coverage has increased from 88% in 1998 to 95% in 2003. In 1996-97, the prevalence of subjects with levels of IgG antibodies against PT greater than 2EU/ml was 77.6%. The increase in vaccination coverage will probably change the pattern of disease transmission and increase the number of susceptible adults, unless administration of booster doses to adolescents and adults is considered.

Prevalence of IgG varicella zoster virus antibodies in the Kuikuro and Kaiabi indigenous communities in Xingu National Park, Brazil, before varicella vaccination

The purpose of the study was to estimate the prevalence of IgG antibodies against varicella zoster virus (VZV) in the two most populated indigenous ethnic groups from Xingu Indigenous National Park, in Brazil, prior to the introduction of vaccination against the disease, and to determine the positive and the negative predictive values of a history of varicella infection. In 2001, 589 inhabitants of two Kuikuro villages and three Kaiabi villages were evaluated and provided information concerning previous varicella infection. An indirect immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect IgG anti-VZV antibodies was performed in 224 blood samples - volunteer selection had no interference of anamnesis. IgG prevalence was 80.8% (95% Confidence Interval: 76% - 86%). The seroepidemiology of varicella in Xingu National Park prior to varicella vaccine introduction was comparable to the Brazilian national seroprevalence described in the literature, and so were the positive (98%) and the negative predictive value (41%) of the referred history.

The pre-vaccination regional epidemiological landscape of measles in Italy: contact patterns, effort needed for eradication, and comparison with other regions of Europe

Background

Strong regional heterogeneity and generally sub-optimal rates of measles vaccination in Italy have, to date, hampered attainment of WHO targets for measles elimination, and have generated the need for the new Italian National Measles Elimination Plan. Crucial to success of the plan is the identification of intervention priorities based upon a clear picture of the regional epidemiology of measles derived from the use of data to estimate basic parameters. Previous estimates of measles force of infection for Italy have appeared anomalously low. It has been argued elsewhere that this results from Italian selective under-reporting by age of cases and that the true measles force of infection in Italy is probably similar to that of other European countries. A deeper examination of the evidence for this conjecture is undertaken in the present paper.

Methods

Using monthly regional case notifications data from 1949 to the start of vaccination in 1976 and notifications by age from 1971–76, summary equilibrium parameters (force of infection (FOI), basic reproductive ratio (R₀) and critical vaccination coverage (p_c)) are calculated for each region and for each of 5 plausible contact patterns. An analysis of the spectra of incidence profiles is also carried out. Finally a transmission dynamics model is employed to explore the correspondence between projections using different estimates of force of infection and data on seroprevalence in Italy.

Results

FOI estimates are lower than comparable European FOIs and there is substantial regional heterogeneity in basic reproductive ratios; certain patterns of contact matrices are demonstrated to be unfeasible. Most regions show evidence of 3-year epidemic cycles or longer, and compared with England & Wales there appears to be little synchronisation between regions. Modelling results suggest that the lower FOI estimated from corrected aggregate national data matches serological data more closely than that estimated from typical European data.

Conclusion

Results suggest forces of infection in Italy, though everywhere remaining below the typical European level, are historically higher in the South where currently vaccination coverage is lowest. There appears to be little evidence to support the suggestion that a higher true force of infection is masked by age bias in reporting.

Heterogeneity in regional notification patterns and its impact on aggregate national case notification data: the example of measles in Italy

BACKGROUND

A monthly time series of measles case notifications exists for Italy from 1949 onwards, although its usefulness is seriously undermined by extensive under-reporting which varies strikingly between regions, giving rise to the possibility of significant distortions in epidemic patterns seen in aggregated national data.

RESULTS

A corrected national time series is calculated using an algorithm based upon the approximate equality between births and measles cases; under-reporting estimates are presented for each Italian region, and poor levels of reporting in Southern Italy are confirmed.

CONCLUSION

Although an order of magnitude larger, despite great heterogeneity between regions in under-reporting and in epidemic patterns, the shape of the corrected national time series remains close to that of the aggregated uncorrected data. This suggests such aggregate data may be quite robust to great heterogeneity in reporting and epidemic patterns at the regional level. The corrected data set maintains an epidemic pattern distinct from that of England and Wales.