Pacific sub-decadal sea surface temperature variations contributed to recent Aantarctic Sea ice decline trend

Total sea ice extent (SIE) across the Southern Ocean increased from 1979-2014, but declined rapidly after 2016. Significant sea ice decline has emerged since the peak of SIE in 2014, coincident with Pacific sub-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) trends resembling a strong La Niña-like cold condition and the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Previous studies suggest that the warm subsurface Southern Ocean was an important driver of the low sea ice in spring 2016 and the sustained low sea ice state since. Here we show that the observed atmospheric circulation changes near Antarctica during the period from June 2013-May 2023 are conducive to increasing surface temperature via warm advection from north and reducing Antarctic SIE, involving a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low and anomalous high pressures over the Weddell Sea and West Pacific sectors. Through coupled pacemaker experiments, we demonstrate that Pacific sub-decadal SST trends have dominantly driven these atmospheric circulation changes through tropical-polar teleconnections and also induced significant Southern Ocean subsurface warming in the recent decade. The consequent decreasing SIE has enhanced the Southern Ocean subsurface warming effect and significantly contributed to the rapid Antarctic SIE decline.

Spatiotemporal analysis of sea ice in the Weddell Sea of Antarctic based on GTWR

This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and its interactions with environmental factors from 2011 to 2023, focusing on the Weddell Sea. SIC products derived from MODIS data were assessed and compared with six widely used datasets, including AMSR2/NT2 and MWRI/NT2. Among these, MWRI/NT2 exhibited the highest consistency with MODIS-derived SIC, achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.94, the lowest bias (0.23%), and the smallest mean absolute deviation (MAD) and root mean square deviation (RMSD), making it the preferred dataset for further analysis. Seasonal trends reveal that SIC experienced the most significant decline during autumn (-10.7 ± 2.3 × 10³ km² yr⁻¹) and the smallest reduction in winter (-1.3 ± 0.5 × 10³ km² yr⁻¹). Correlation analysis identified sea surface temperature (SST), wind speed, and latent heat flux (LHF) as the primary drivers of seasonal SIC variability, with SST exhibiting strong negative correlations across all seasons (r = -0.81, p < 0.01). Spatially, SIC in the Weddell Sea displayed significant heterogeneity in its relationship with environmental factors. SST demonstrated a negative correlation with SIC, particularly in the western Weddell Sea, with lags of -3 to -5 months. LHF consistently promoted sea ice growth, with the strongest influence along the eastern Weddell Sea coast. Zonal and meridional winds exhibited both promoting and suppressing effects on SIC depending on the region and time period, reflecting complex wind-sea ice interactions. Mean sea level pressure (MSLP) showed opposing effects: suppressing SIC in the northern Weddell Sea and promoting it in the southern Weddell Sea. The use of geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) allowed the quantification of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of these factors, with LHF identified as the most influential variable (median standardized coefficient = 1.44). These findings highlight the intricate interplay between atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice dynamics in the Weddell Sea and provide a framework for understanding the drivers of sea ice variability under changing climatic conditions.

Spatial and temporal variation of Antarctic microbial interactions: a study around the west Antarctic Peninsula

BACKGROUND

The west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a region of rapid environmental changes, with regional differences in climate warming along the north-south axis of the peninsula. Along the WAP, Palmer corresponds to a warmer region with lesser sea ice extent in the north compared to Rothera ~ 400 km to the south. Comprehensive and comparative, year-round assessments of the WAP microbial community dynamics in coastal surface waters at these two locations are imperative to understand the effects of regional climate warming variations on microbial community dynamics, but this is still lacking.

RESULTS

We report on the seasonal diversity, taxonomic overview, as well as predicted inter-and intra-domain causal effects (interactions) of the bacterial and microbial eukaryotic communities close to the Palmer station and at the Rothera time-series site between July 2013 and April 2014. Our 16S- and 18S-rRNA gene amplicon sequencing data showed that across all seasons, both bacteria and microbial eukaryotic communities were considerably different between the two sites which could be attributed to seawater temperature, and sea ice coverage in combination with sea ice type differences. Overall, in terms of biotic drivers, causal-effect modelling suggests that bacteria were stronger drivers of ecosystem dynamics at Palmer, while microbial eukaryotes played a stronger role at Rothera. The parasitic taxa Syndiniales persevered at both sites across the seasons, with Palmer and Rothera harbouring different key groups. Up to 62.3% of the negative causal effects were driven by Syndiniales at Rothera compared to only 13.5% at Palmer, suggesting that parasitism drives community dynamics at Rothera more strongly than at Palmer. Conversely, SAR11 Clade II, which was less abundant but persistent year-round at both sites, was the dominant driver at Palmer, evidenced by many (28.2% and 37.4% of positive and negative effects respectively) strong causal effects. Article note: Kindly check first page article notes are correct.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research has shed light on the dynamics of microbial community composition and correlative interactions at two sampling locations that represent different climate regimes along the WAP.

Temporal variability in mortality and recruitment jointly influence the periodic fluctuations in Antarctic krill populations

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) is a key part of the food web in the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Significant inter-annual fluctuations in population dynamics make stock assessment and management of its population a significant challenge. To better understand the population dynamics and fluctuation of krill, a survey-based age-structured catch-at-length model (ACL) is used to estimate the periodic fluctuations, based on length data collected from scientific surveys under the US Antarctic Marine Living Resources (AMLR) Program between 1992 and 2011. Spectral analysis of the model estimates revealed periodic fluctuations of 5-6 years in the recruitment, total abundance, and total biomass of krill in the Antarctic Peninsula, while spawning stock biomass exhibited periodic fluctuations of both 5-6 years and 2-3 years. The variations in krill total abundance and total biomass were mainly driven by recruitment, but the variation in spawning stock biomass was likely driven by both recruitment and time-varying, age-specific mortality. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the patterns and drivers of the periodic dynamics of Antarctic krill, which may help lead to improved assessments and fishery management for this important stock.

Climate-driven changes in underwater irradiance and primary productivity in an Antarctic fjord (Potter Cove, Western Antarctic Peninsula)

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a hotspot of climate warming, evidencing glacier retreat and a decrease in the fast-ice duration. This study provides a > 30-y time-series (1987-2022) on annual and seasonal air temperatures in Potter Cove (Isla 25 de Mayo/King George Island). It investigates the interaction between warming, glacial melt, fast-ice and the underwater conditions (light, salinity, temperature, turbidity) over a period of 10 years along the fjord axis (2010-2019), and for the first time provides a unique continuous underwater irradiance time series over 5 years (2014-2018). The effects on the annual light budget in the water column were studied along the fjord axis in three areas, a low glacier influence area (LGI), an intermediate glacier influence area (IGI), and a high glacier influence area (HGI). To determine the possible impact of light limitation on the viability of benthic primary producers, the minimum annual light requirements and the daily metabolic carbon balance of two key macroalgal Antarctic species, Himantothallus grandifolius and Palmaria decipiens, were estimated. The mean annual, autumn, winter and spring air temperature has risen during the last three decades, but summer temperatures kept rather stable. Turbidity caused by glacial melt mostly governs the underwater light climate while fast-ice duration is currently of minor importance for the annual light budget. Glacier melting differentially affected the fjord system along its axis. The three areas showed quantitative differences in turbidity and underwater irradiance varying across seasons and years. Water clarity significantly decreased within the last few years, with key macroalgal species probably not reaching their minimum annual light requirements during warmer years. This may have considerable effects on the primary productivity of the ecosystem.

Organic carbon cycling in the sediments of Prydz Bay, Eastern Antarctica: Implications for a high carbon sequestration potential

Understanding the dynamics of sedimentary organic carbon (SOC) in the productive continental marginal sea surrounding Antarctica is crucial for elucidating the effect of this sea on the global carbon cycle. We analyzed 31 surface sediment samples and eight sediment cores collected from Prydz Bay (PB) and the adjacent basin area. The element and stable isotope compositions, grain size compositions, and biogenic silica and lithogenic minerals of these samples were used to evaluate the spatial variations in the sources, transport mechanisms, and preservation patterns of SOC, with a particular focus on the efficiency of the biological carbon pump (BCP). Our findings reveal that the SOC originated from mixed marine/terrestrial sources. The δ13C values were higher in the Prydz Bay Gyre (PBG) region than in the open sea area. Biogenic matter-rich debris, associated with fine-grained particles (silt and clay), was concentrated in the PBG, while abiotic ice-rafted debris and coarse-grained particles were preferentially deposited in the bank and ice shelf front regions. Lithogenic matter predominated in the basin sediments. The annual accumulation rate of SOC in PB ranged from 1.6 to 6.2 g·m-2·yr-1 (mean 4.2 ± 1.9 g·m-2·yr-1), and the rates were higher in the PBG than in the ice shelf front region. Estimates based on our tentative box model suggest that the efficiency of the BCP, which refers to the proportion of surface-produced organic carbon successfully transferred to deep waters, is approximately 5.7 % in PB, surpassing the global average (∼0.8 %) and the efficiencies reported for other polar environments. Furthermore, our calculations indicate that the SOC preservation efficiency (the ratio of preserved to initially deposited organic carbon in sediments) in PB is approximately 79 % ± 20 %, underscoring the significant carbon sequestration potential within PB. The results of this study have important implications for the effects of sediment dynamics on the carbon cycle in the sea surrounding Antarctica.

Weakened western Indian Ocean dominance on Antarctic sea ice variability in a changing climate

Patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exhibit strong diversity, ranging from being dominated by the western tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO) to the eastern tropical Indian Ocean (ETIO). Whether and how the different types of IOD variability patterns affect the variability of Antarctic sea ice is not known, nor is how the impact may change in a warming climate. Here, we find that the leading mode of austral spring Antarctic sea ice variability is dominated by WTIO SST variability rather than ETIO SST or El Niño-Southern Oscillation. WTIO warm SST anomalies excite a poleward-propagating Rossby wave, inducing a tri-polar anomaly pattern characterized by a decrease in sea ice near the Amundsen Sea but an increase in regions on both sides. Such impact has been weakening in the two decades post-2000, accompanied by weakened WTIO SST variability. Under greenhouse warming, climate models project a decrease in WTIO SST variability, suggesting that the reduced impact on Antarctic sea ice from the IOD will likely to continue, facilitating a fast decline of Antarctic sea ice.

Emerging long-term trends and interdecadal cycles in Antarctic polynyas

Polynyas, areas of open water embedded within sea ice, are a key component of ocean-atmosphere interactions that act as hotspots of sea-ice production, bottom-water formation, and primary productivity. The specific drivers of polynya dynamics remain, however, elusive and coupled climate models struggle to replicate Antarctic polynya activity. Here, we leverage a 44-y time series of Antarctic sea ice to elucidate long-term trends. We identify Antarctic-wide linear increases and a hitherto undescribed cyclical pattern of polynya activity across the Ross Sea region that potentially arises from interactions between the Amundsen Sea Low and Southern Annular Mode. While their specific drivers remain unknown, identifying these emerging patterns augments our capacity to understand the processes that influence sea ice. As we enter a potentially new age of Antarctic sea ice, this advance in understanding will, in turn, lead to more accurate predictions of environmental change, and its implications for Antarctic ecosystems.

Going with the floe: Sea-ice movement affects distance and destination during Adélie penguin winter movements

Seasonal migration, driven by shifts in annual climate cycles and resources, is a key part of the life history and ecology of species across taxonomic groups. By influencing the amount of energy needed to move, external forces such as wind and ocean currents are often key drivers of migratory pathways exposing individuals to varying resources, environmental conditions, and competition pressures impacting individual fitness and population dynamics. Although wildlife movements in connection with wind and ocean currents are relatively well understood, movements within sea-ice fields have been much less studied, despite sea ice being an integral part of polar ecology. Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica, currently exist at the southernmost edge of their range and undergo the longest (~12,000 km) winter migration known for the species. Within and north of the Ross Sea, the Ross Gyre drives ocean circulation and the large-scale movement of sea ice. We used remotely sensed sea-ice movement data together with geolocation-based penguin movement data to test the hypothesis that penguins use gyre-driven sea-ice movement to aid their migration. We found that penguins traveled greater distances when their movement vectors were aligned with those of sea ice (i.e., ice support) and the amount of ice support received depended on which route a penguin took. We also found that birds that took an eastern route traveled significantly further north in two of the 3 years we examined, coinciding with higher velocities of sea ice in those years. We compare our findings to patterns observed in migrating species that utilize air or water currents for their travel and with other studies showing the importance of ocean/sea-ice circulation patterns to wildlife movement and life history patterns within the Ross Sea. Changes in sea ice may have consequences not only for energy expenditure but, by altering migration and movement pathways, to the ecological interactions that exist in this region.

Drivers of Antarctic sea ice advance

Antarctic sea ice is mostly seasonal. While changes in sea ice seasonality have been observed in recent decades, the lack of process understanding remains a key challenge to interpret these changes. To address this knowledge gap, we investigate the processes driving the ice season onset, known as sea ice advance, using remote sensing and in situ observations. Here, we find that seawater freezing predominantly drives advance in the inner seasonal ice zone. By contrast, in an outer band a few degrees wide, advance is due to the import of drifting ice into warmer waters. We show that advance dates are strongly related to the heat stored in the summer ocean mixed layer. This heat is controlled by the timing of sea ice retreat, explaining the tight link between retreat and advance dates. Such a thermodynamic linkage strongly constrains the climatology and interannual variations, albeit with less influence on the latter.

Physical-biological drivers modulating phytoplankton seasonal succession along the Northern Antarctic Peninsula

The Northern Antarctic Peninsula (NAP) shows shifts in phytoplankton distribution and composition along its warming marine ecosystems. However, despite recent efforts to mechanistically understand these changes, little focus has been given to the phytoplankton seasonal succession, remaining uncertainties regarding to distribution patterns of emerging taxa along the NAP. To fill this gap, we collected phytoplankton (pigment and microscopy analysis) and physico-chemical datasets during spring and summer (November, February and March) of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 off the NAP. Satellite measurements (sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and chlorophyll-a) were used to extend the temporal coverage of analysis associated with the in situ sampling. We improved the quantification and distribution pattern of emerging taxa, such as dinoflagellates and cryptophytes, and described a contrasting seasonal behavior and distinct fundamental niche between centric and pennate diatoms. Cryptophytes and pennate diatoms preferentially occupied relatively shallower mixing layers compared with centric diatoms and dinoflagellates, suggesting differences between these groups in distribution and environment occupation over the phytoplankton seasonal succession. Under colder conditions, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were associated with positive anomalies of sea ice concentration and duration. Therefore, based on sea ice-phytoplankton growth relationship, large phytoplankton biomass accumulation was expected during the spring/summer of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 along the NAP. However, there was a decoupling between sea ice concentration/duration and phytoplankton biomass, characterizing two seasonal periods of low biomass accumulation (negative chlorophyll-a anomalies), associated with the top-down control in the region. These results provide an improved mechanistic understanding on physical-biological drivers modulating phytoplankton seasonal succession along the Antarctic coastal waters.

Investigating two consecutive catastrophic breeding seasons in a large king penguin colony

Large-scale breeding failures, such as offspring die-offs, can disproportionately impact wildlife populations that are characterized by a few large colonies. However, breeding monitoring-and thus investigations of such die-offs-is especially challenging in species with long reproductive cycles. We investigate two unresolved dramatic breeding failures that occurred in consecutive years (2009 and 2010) in a large king penguin Aptenodytes patagonicus colony, a long-lived species with a breeding cycle lasting over a year. Here we found that a single period, winter 2009, was likely responsible for the occurrence of breeding anomalies during both breeding seasons, suggesting that adults experienced poor foraging conditions at sea at that time. Following that unfavorable winter, the 2009 breeding cohort-who were entering the late stage of chick-rearing-immediately experienced high chick mortality. Meanwhile, the 2010 breeding cohort greatly delayed their arrival and egg laying, which would have otherwise started not long after the winter. The 2010 breeding season continued to display anomalies during the incubation and chick-rearing period, such as high abandonment rate, long foraging trips and eventually the death of all chicks in winter 2010. These anomalies could have resulted from either a domino-effect caused by the delayed laying, the continuation of poor foraging conditions, or both. This study provides an example of a large-scale catastrophic breeding failure and highlights the importance of the winter period on phenology and reproduction success for wildlife that breed in few large colonies.

Trends and variability in the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere and has wide ranging effects on ecosystems and societies. Despite the SAM's importance, paleoclimate reconstructions disagree on its variability and trends over the Common Era, which may be linked to variability in SAM teleconnections and the influence of specific proxies. Here, we use data assimilation with a multi-model prior to reconstruct the SAM over the last 2000 years using temperature and drought-sensitive climate proxies. Our method does not assume a stationary relationship between the SAM and the proxy records and allows us to identify critical paleoclimate records and quantify reconstruction uncertainty through time. We find no evidence for a forced response in SAM variability prior to the 20th century. We do find the modern positive trend falls outside the 2σ range of the prior 2000 years at multidecadal time scales, supporting the inference that the SAM's positive trend over the last several decades is a response to anthropogenic climate change.

Cryptophytes: An emerging algal group in the rapidly changing Antarctic Peninsula marine environments

The western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a climatically sensitive region where foundational changes at the basis of the food web have been recorded; cryptophytes are gradually outgrowing diatoms together with a decreased size spectrum of the phytoplankton community. Based on a 11-year (2008-2018) in-situ dataset, we demonstrate a strong coupling between biomass accumulation of cryptophytes, summer upper ocean stability, and the mixed layer depth. Our results shed light on the environmental conditions favoring the cryptophyte success in coastal regions of the WAP, especially during situations of shallower mixed layers associated with lower diatom biomass, which evidences a clear competition or niche segregation between diatoms and cryptophytes. We also unravel the cryptophyte photo-physiological niche by exploring its capacity to thrive under high light stress normally found in confined stratified upper layers. Such conditions are becoming more frequent in the Antarctic coastal waters and will likely have significant future implications at various levels of the marine food web. The competitive advantage of cryptophytes in environments with significant light level fluctuations was supported by laboratory experiments that revealed a high flexibility of cryptophytes to grow in different light conditions driven by a fast photo-regulating response. All tested physiological parameters support the hypothesis that cryptophytes are highly flexible regarding their growing light conditions and extremely efficient in rapidly photo-regulating changes to environmental light levels. This plasticity would give them a competitive advantage in exploiting an ecological niche where light levels fluctuate quickly. These findings provide new insights on niche separation between diatoms and cryptophytes, which is vital for a thorough understanding of the WAP marine ecosystem.

A surplus no more? Variation in krill availability impacts reproductive rates of Antarctic baleen whales

The krill surplus hypothesis of unlimited prey resources available for Antarctic predators due to commercial whaling in the 20th century has remained largely untested since the 1970s. Rapid warming of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the past 50 years has resulted in decreased seasonal ice cover and a reduction of krill. The latter is being exacerbated by a commercial krill fishery in the region. Despite this, humpback whale populations have increased but may be at a threshold for growth based on these human-induced changes. Understanding how climate-mediated variation in prey availability influences humpback whale population dynamics is critical for focused management and conservation actions. Using an 8-year dataset (2013-2020), we show that inter-annual humpback whale pregnancy rates, as determined from skin-blubber biopsy samples (n = 616), are positively correlated with krill availability and fluctuations in ice cover in the previous year. Pregnancy rates showed significant inter-annual variability, between 29% and 86%. Our results indicate that krill availability is in fact limiting and affecting reproductive rates, in contrast to the krill surplus hypothesis. This suggests that this population of humpback whales may be at a threshold for population growth due to prey limitations. As a result, continued warming and increased fishing along the WAP, which continue to reduce krill stocks, will likely impact this humpback whale population and other krill predators in the region. Humpback whales are sentinel species of ecosystem health, and changes in pregnancy rates can provide quantifiable signals of the impact of environmental change at the population level. Our findings must be considered paramount in developing new and more restrictive conservation and management plans for the Antarctic marine ecosystem and minimizing the negative impacts of human activities in the region.

Biological responses to change in Antarctic sea ice habitats

Sea ice is a key habitat in the high latitude Southern Ocean and is predicted to change in its extent, thickness and duration in coming decades. The sea-ice cover is instrumental in mediating ocean–atmosphere exchanges and provides an important substrate for organisms from microbes and algae to predators. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is reliant on sea ice during key phases of its life cycle, particularly during the larval stages, for food and refuge from their predators, while other small grazers, including copepods and amphipods, either live in the brine channel system or find food and shelter at the ice-water interface and in gaps between rafted ice blocks. Fish, such as the Antarctic silverfish Pleuragramma antarcticum, use platelet ice (loosely-formed frazil crystals) as an essential hatching and nursery ground. In this paper, we apply the framework of the Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO) to review current knowledge about relationships between sea ice and associated primary production and secondary consumers, their status and the drivers of sea-ice change in this ocean. We then use qualitative network modelling to explore possible responses of lower trophic level sea-ice biota to different perturbations, including warming air and ocean temperatures, increased storminess and reduced annual sea-ice duration. This modelling shows that pelagic algae, copepods, krill and fish are likely to decrease in response to warming temperatures and reduced sea-ice duration, while salp populations will likely increase under conditions of reduced sea-ice duration and increased number of days of &gt;0°C. Differences in responses to these pressures between the five MEASO sectors were also explored. Greater impacts of environmental pressures on ice-related biota occurring presently were found for the West and East Pacific sectors (notably the Ross Sea and western Antarctic Peninsula), with likely flow-on effects to the wider ecosystem. All sectors are expected to be impacted over coming decades. Finally, we highlight priorities for future sea ice biological research to address knowledge gaps in this field.

Seasonal habitat preference and foraging behaviour of post-moult Weddell seals in the western Ross Sea

Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) are important predators in the Southern Ocean and are among the best-studied pinnipeds on Earth, yet much still needs to be learned about their year-round movements and foraging behaviour. Using biologgers, we tagged 62 post-moult Weddell seals in McMurdo Sound and vicinity between 2010 and 2012. Generalized additive mixed models were used to (i) explain and predict the probability of seal presence and foraging behaviour from eight environmental variables, and (ii) examine foraging behaviour in relation to dive metrics. Foraging probability was highest in winter and lowest in summer, and foraging occurred mostly in the water column or just above the bottom; across all seasons, seals preferentially exploited the shallow banks and deeper troughs of the Ross Sea, the latter providing a pathway for Circumpolar Deep Water to flow onto the shelf. In addition, the probability of Weddell seal occurrence and foraging increased with increasing bathymetric slope and where water depth was typically less than 600 m. Although the probability of occurrence was higher closer to the shelf break, foraging was higher in areas closer to shore and over banks. This study highlights the importance of overwinter foraging for recouping body mass lost during the previous summer.

Control of Antarctic phytoplankton community composition and standing stock by light availability

Southern Ocean phytoplankton are especially subjected to pronounced seasonal and interannual changes in light availability. Although previous studies have examined the role of light in these environments, very few combined pigment-based taxonomy with flow cytometry to better discriminate the light response of various phytoplankton groups. In particular the different populations within the diverse and important taxonomic group of diatoms require further investigation. Six incubation experiments (9–10 days) were performed during the main productive period with natural seawater collected at the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Standing stock of Phaeocystis spp. cells displayed relatively fast accumulation under all levels of light (low, medium, high; 4–7, 30–50 and 150–200 µmol quanta m−2 s−1), whilst the small- and larger-sized diatom populations (4.5 and 20 µm diameter) exhibited faster accumulation in medium and high light. In contrast, intermediate-sized diatoms (11.5 µm diameter) displayed fastest net growth under low light, subsequently dominating the phytoplankton community. Low light was a key factor limiting accumulation and peak phytoplankton biomass, except one incubation displaying relatively high accumulation rates under low light. The 3-week low-light period prior to experimentation likely allowed adaptation to maximize achievable growth and seems a strong determinant of whether the different natural Antarctic phytoplankton populations sustain, thrive or decline. Our study provides improved insight into how light intensity modulates the net response of key Antarctic phytoplankton, both between and within taxonomic groups.

Sea ice variability and trends in the Indian Ocean sector of Antarctica: Interaction with ENSO and SAM

Antarctic sea ice variability is primarily associated with ocean-atmospheric forcing driven by anomalous conditions over the tropical regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The ice-ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean Sector (IOS) of Antarctica have been studied using monthly satellite and reanalysis observations over four decades (1979-2019). In this study, we revealed that the annual sea ice extent (SIE) in the IOS increases at a rate of 0.7 ± 0.9% decade^-1, with a maximum increase in austral summer (5.9 ± 3.7% decade^-1). The wavelet approach was used to determine the variability in IOS sea ice caused by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and southern annular mode (SAM). The SIE has a significant association with both indices during the summer and autumn. In comparison to ENSO, the sea ice variability associated with SAM is typically seasonal in nature and lacks distinct patterns. The wavelet coherence analysis revealed a relatively weak relationship between ENSO and SAM but a highly significant coherence between climatic indices and SIE. We observed that sea ice in the IOS is influenced significantly by climatic oscillations during their negative SAM/El Niño or positive SAM/La Niña phases. Furthermore, the study demonstrated a substantial impact of climatic disturbances in determining the sea ice variability in the IOS.

Marine Pelagic Ecosystem Responses to Climate Variability and Change

The marine coastal region makes up just 10% of the total area of the global ocean but contributes nearly 20% of its total primary production and over 80% of fisheries landings. Unicellular phytoplankton dominate primary production. Climate variability has had impacts on various marine ecosystems, but most sites are just approaching the age at which ecological responses to longer term, unidirectional climate trends might be distinguished. All five marine pelagic sites in the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network are experiencing warming trends in surface air temperature. The marine physical system is responding at all sites with increasing mixed layer temperatures and decreasing depth and with declining sea ice cover at the two polar sites. Their ecological responses are more varied. Some sites show multiple population or ecosystem changes, whereas, at others, changes have not been detected, either because more time is needed or because they are not being measured.

Distributions and relationships of virio- and picoplankton in the epi-, meso- and bathypelagic zones of the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica during the austral summer

Virioplankton and picoplankton are the most abundant marine biological entities on earth and mediate biogeochemical cycles in the Southern Ocean. However, understanding of their distribution and relationships with environmental factors is lacking. Here, we report on their distribution and relationships with environmental factors at 48 stations from 112.5° to 150°W and 67° to 75.5°S in the Amundsen Sea of West Antarctica. The epipelagic stations were grouped into four clusters based on the virio- and picoplankton composition and abundance. Clusters three and four, which were associated with the ice-edge blooms in the coastal and Amundsen Sea Polynya (ASP) areas, had high abundances of autotrophic picoeukaryotes; this resulted in subsequent high abundances of heterotrophic prokaryotes and viruses. Cluster two stations were in open oceanic areas, where the abundances of autotrophic and heterotrophic picoplankton were low. Cluster one stations were located between the areas of blooms and the oceanic areas, which had a low abundance of heterotrophic prokaryotes and picoeukaryotes and a high abundance of virioplankton. The abundance of viruses was significantly correlated with the abundances of autotrophic picoeukaryotes and Chl-a concentration in oceanic areas, although this reflected a time-lag with autotrophic picoeukaryote and heterotrophic prokaryotes abundances in ice-edge bloom areas. The upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) might have induced the high abundance of autotrophic picoeukaryotes in the epipelagic zone, and the sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) might have induced the high abundance of heterotrophic prokaryotes and virioplankton in the meso- and bathypelagic zones. This study shows that the summer distribution of virio- and picoplankton in the Amundsen Sea of West Antarctica was mainly controlled by upwelling of the CDW and the timing of ice-edge blooms.

Phytoplankton Blooms Expanding Further Than Previously Thought in the Ross Sea: A Remote Sensing Perspective

Accurate and robust measurements from ocean color satellites are critical to studying spatial and temporal changes of surface ocean properties. Satellite-derived Chlorophyll-a (Chl) is an important parameter to monitor phytoplankton blooms on synoptical scales, particularly in remote seas. However, the present NASA standard Chl algorithm tends to strongly underestimate the Chl in the Ross Sea. Based on a locally-tuned Chl algorithm in the Ross Sea and using the data record from MODIS between 2002 and 2020, here we investigated the spatial expansion of phytoplankton blooms in the Ross Sea. Our results show the geometric areas of the phytoplankton blooms could reach (7.20 ± 2.8) × 104 km2 on average, which was ~3.1 times that of those identified using the NASA default Chl algorithm. Spatially, blooms were frequently identified on the shelf of the Ross Sea polynya with a typical chance of ≥80%. In the context of climate change and global warming, the general decrease and interannual dynamics of sea ice cover tends to affect solar light penetration and surface seawater temperature, which were found to regulate the spatial expansion of the phytoplankton blooms over the years. Statistical analyses showed that the spatial coverages of the phytoplankton blooms were significantly correlated with sea surface temperature (Spearman correlation coefficient R = 0.55, at p < 0.05), sea surface wind speed (R = 0.42, at p < 0.05), and sea ice concentration (R = −0.84, at p < 0.05), yet without significant long-term (>10 years) trends over the study period. The stronger phytoplankton blooms than those previously observed may indicate larger carbon sequestration, which needs to be investigated in the future. More valid satellite observations under cloud covers will further constrain the estimates.

WOS, Steinberg DK, Swadling KM, Tarling GA, Thorpe SE, Veytia D, Ward P, Weldrick CK, Yang G. Status, Change, and Futures of Zooplankton in the Southern Ocean

In the Southern Ocean, several zooplankton taxonomic groups, euphausiids, copepods, salps and pteropods, are notable because of their biomass and abundance and their roles in maintaining food webs and ecosystem structure and function, including the provision of globally important ecosystem services. These groups are consumers of microbes, primary and secondary producers, and are prey for fishes, cephalopods, seabirds, and marine mammals. In providing the link between microbes, primary production, and higher trophic levels these taxa influence energy flows, biological production and biomass, biogeochemical cycles, carbon flux and food web interactions thereby modulating the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Additionally, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and various fish species are harvested by international fisheries. Global and local drivers of change are expected to affect the dynamics of key zooplankton species, which may have potentially profound and wide-ranging implications for Southern Ocean ecosystems and the services they provide. Here we assess the current understanding of the dominant metazoan zooplankton within the Southern Ocean, including Antarctic krill and other key euphausiid, copepod, salp and pteropod species. We provide a systematic overview of observed and potential future responses of these taxa to a changing Southern Ocean and the functional relationships by which drivers may impact them. To support future ecosystem assessments and conservation and management strategies, we also identify priorities for Southern Ocean zooplankton research.

Estimating the average distribution of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba at the northern Antarctic Peninsula during austral summer and winter

This study was performed to aid the management of the fishery for Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. Krill are an important component of the Antarctic marine ecosystem, providing a key food source for many marine predators. Additionally, krill are the target of the largest commercial fishery in the Southern Ocean, for which annual catches have been increasing and concentrating in recent years. The krill fishery is managed by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), which has endorsed a new management framework that requires information about the spatial distribution and biomass of krill. Here, we use krill density estimates from acoustic surveys and a GAMM framework to model habitat properties associated with high krill biomass during summer and winter in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region, an area important to the commercial fishery. Our models show elevated krill density associated with the shelf break, increased sea surface temperature, moderate chlorophyll-a concentration and increased salinity. During winter, our models show associations with shallow waters (< 1500 m) with low sea-ice concentration, medium sea-level anomaly and medium current speed. Our models predict temporal averages of the distribution and density of krill, which can be used to aid CCAMLR’s revised ecosystem approach to fisheries management. Our models have the potential to help in the spatial and temporal design of future acoustic surveys that would preclude the need for modelled extrapolations. We highlight that the ecosystem approach to fisheries management of krill critically depends upon such field observations at relevant spatial and temporal scales.

Chemotaxonomic characterization of the key genera of diatoms in the Northern Antarctic Peninsula

Diatoms are successful in occupying a wide range of ecological niches and biomes along the global ocean. Although there is a recognized importance of diatoms for the Southern Ocean ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, the current knowledge on their ecology and distribution along the impacted Antarctic coastal regions remains generalized at best. HPLC-CHEMTAX approaches have been extensively used to this purpose, providing valuable information about the whole phytoplankton community, even for those small-size species which are normally difficult to identify by light microscopy. Despite that, the chemotaxonomic method has reserved minimal focus on great diversity of types associated with diatom genera or species. Here, we show a coupling between the key genera and the corresponding chemotaxonomic subgroup type-A or type-B of diatoms via HPLC-CHEMTAX and microscopic analysis, using chlorophyll-c 1 and chlorophyll-c 3 as biomarker pigments, respectively. The results demonstrated strong correlations for nine of the fifteen most abundant diatom genera observed along the Northern Antarctic Peninsula, from which five (four) were statistically associated with chlorophyll-c 1 (chlorophyll-c 3). Our study highlights the importance to observe diatoms in greater detail, beyond being only one functional group, for a better understanding on their responses under a climate change scenario.

Intense ocean freshening from melting glacier around the Antarctica during early twenty-first century

With the accelerating mass loss of Antarctic ice sheets, the freshening of the Southern Ocean coastal oceans (SOc, seas around Antarctica) is gradually intensifying, which will reduce the formation of bottom water and weaken the meridional overturning circulation, thus having a significant negative impact on the ocean’s role in regulating global climate. Due to the extreme environment of the Southern Ocean and the limitations of observational techniques, our understanding of the glacier-derived freshening of SOc is still vague. We developed a method that first provided us with an expansive understanding of glacier-derived freshening progress over the SOc. Applying this method to the observational data in the SOc from 1926 to 2016, revealed that the rate of glacier-derived freshwater input reached a maximum of 268 ± 134 Gt year⁻¹ during the early twenty-first century. Our results indicate that during the same period, glacier melting accounted for 63%, 28%, and 92% of the total freshening occurred in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific sectors of the SOc, respectively. This suggests that the ice shelf basal melt in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula plays a dominant role in the freshening of the surrounding seas.

Assessing the impact of suppressing Southern Ocean SST variability in a coupled climate model

The Southern Ocean exerts a strong influence on global climate, regulating the storage and transport of heat, freshwater and carbon throughout the world’s oceans. While the majority of previous studies focus on how wind changes influence Southern Ocean circulation patterns, here we set out to explore potential feedbacks from the ocean to the atmosphere. To isolate the role of oceanic variability on Southern Hemisphere climate, we perform coupled climate model experiments in which Southern Ocean variability is suppressed by restoring sea surface temperatures (SST) over 40°–65°S to the model’s monthly mean climatology. We find that suppressing Southern Ocean SST variability does not impact the Southern Annular Mode, suggesting air–sea feedbacks do not play an important role in the persistence of the Southern Annular Mode in our model. Suppressing Southern Ocean SST variability does lead to robust mean-state changes in SST and sea ice. Changes in mixed layer processes and convection associated with the SST restoring lead to SST warming and a sea ice decline in southern high latitudes, and SST cooling in midlatitudes. These results highlight the impact non-linear processes can have on a model’s mean state, and the need to consider these when performing simulations of the Southern Ocean.

The Belgica 121 expedition to the Western Antarctic Peninsula: a detailed biodiversity census

BACKGROUND

This dataset relates to the biodiversity census carried out during the Belgica 121 (B121) expedition to the Western Antarctic Peninsula from February to March 2019. One of the aims of the campaign was to explore the surroundings of the Gerlache Strait and to carry out a detailed biodiversity census focusing on inter- and subtidal shallow-water areas using both classic descriptive marine ecology methods, as well as state-of-the art techniques (habitat mapping, genetics, trophic ecology). The biodiversity census was carried out onboard a nimble research vessel, RV Australis. This dataset will offer access to the raw data on biodiversity occurrences, obtained using a range of methods described in this data paper.

NEW INFORMATION

New raw biodiversity data for a poorly-sampled region (Western Antarctic Peninsula) with a special focus on shallow ecosystems.

Life beneath the ice: jellyfish and ctenophores from the Ross Sea, Antarctica, with an image-based training set for machine learning

BACKGROUND

Southern Ocean ecosystems are currently experiencing increased environmental changes and anthropogenic pressures, urging scientists to report on their biodiversity and biogeography. Two major taxonomically diverse and trophically important gelatinous zooplankton groups that have, however, stayed largely understudied until now are the cnidarian jellyfish and ctenophores. This data scarcity is predominantly due to many of these fragile, soft-bodied organisms being easily fragmented and/or destroyed with traditional net sampling methods. Progress in alternative survey methods including, for instance, optics-based methods is slowly starting to overcome these obstacles. As video annotation by human observers is both time-consuming and financially costly, machine-learning techniques should be developed for the analysis of in situ /in aqua image-based datasets. This requires taxonomically accurate training sets for correct species identification and the present paper is the first to provide such data.

NEW INFORMATION

In this study, we twice conducted three week-long in situ optics-based surveys of jellyfish and ctenophores found under the ice in the McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Our study constitutes the first optics-based survey of gelatinous zooplankton in the Ross Sea and the first study to use in situ / in aqua observations to describe taxonomic and some trophic and behavioural characteristics of gelatinous zooplankton from the Southern Ocean. Despite the small geographic and temporal scales of our study, we provided new undescribed morphological traits for all observed gelatinous zooplankton species (eight cnidarian and four ctenophore species). Three ctenophores and one leptomedusa likely represent undescribed species. Furthermore, along with the photography and videography, we prepared a Common Objects in Context (COCO) dataset, so that this study is the first to provide a taxonomist-ratified image training set for future machine-learning algorithm development concerning Southern Ocean gelatinous zooplankton species.

Zonally asymmetric phytoplankton response to the Southern annular mode in the marginal sea of the Southern ocean

Antarctic marine biological variability modulates climate systems via the biological pump. However, the knowledge of biological response in the Southern Ocean to climate variability still has been lack of understanding owing to limited ocean color data in the high latitude region. We investigated the surface chlorophyll concentration responses to the Southern annular mode (SAM) in the marginal sea of the Southern ocean using satellite observation and reanalysis data focusing on the austral summer. The positive phase of SAM is associated with enhanced and poleward-shifted westerly winds, leading to physical and biogeochemical responses over the Southern ocean. Our result indicates that chlorophyll has strong zonally asymmetric responses to SAM owing to different limiting factors of phytoplankton growth per region. For the positive SAM phase, chlorophyll tends to increase in the western Amundsen-Ross Sea but decreases in the D'Urville Sea. It is suggested that the distinct limiting factors are associated with the seasonal variability of sea ice and upwelling per region.

Un-crewed aerial vehicle population survey of three sympatrically breeding seabird species at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

Surveying seabirds in polar latitudes can be challenging due to sparse human populations, lack of infrastructure and the risk of disturbance to wildlife or damage to habitats. Counting populations using un-crewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) is a promising approach to overcoming these difficulties. However, a careful validation of the approach is needed to ensure comparability with counts collected using conventional methods. Here, we report on surveys of three Antarctic bird species breeding on Signy Island, South Orkney Islands; Chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and Gentoo (Pygoscelis papua) Penguins, and the South Georgia Shag (Leucocarbo atriceps georgianus). We show that images from low-altitude UAV surveys have sufficient resolution to allow separation of Chinstrap Penguins from contiguously breeding Adélie Penguins (Pygoscelis adéliae), which are very similar in appearance when viewed from overhead. We compare data from ground counts with manual counts of nesting birds on images collected simultaneously by low-altitude aerial photography from multi-rotor UAVs at the same colonies. Results at this long-term monitoring site confirmed a continued population decline for Chinstrap Penguins and increasing Gentoo Penguin population. Although both methods provided breeding pair counts that were generally within ~ 5%, there were significant differences at some locations. We examine these differences in order to highlight potential biases or methodological constraints that should be considered when analysing similar aerial census surveys and comparing them with ground counts.

Monthly Variation in the Macromolecular Composition of Phytoplankton Communities at Jang Bogo Station, Terra Nova Bay, Ross Sea

Organic carbon fixed by photosynthesis of phytoplankton during the polar growing period could be important for their survival and consumers during the long polar night. Differences in biochemical traits of phytoplankton between ice-free and polar night periods were investigated in biweekly water samples obtained at the Korean “Jang Bogo Station” located in Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica. The average concentration of total Chl-a from phytoplankton dominated by micro-sized species from the entire sampling period was 0.32 μg L^–1 (SD = ± 0.88 μg L^–1), with the highest concentration of 4.29 μg L^–1 in February and the lowest concentration of 0.01 μg L^–1 during the ice-covered polar night (April–October) in 2015. The highest protein concentration coincided with the peak Chl-a concentration in February and decreased rapidly relative to the carbohydrate and lipid concentrations in the early part of polar night. Among the different biochemical components, carbohydrates were the predominant constituent, accounting for 69% (SD = ± 14%) of the total particulate organic matter (POM) during the entire study period. The carbohydrate contributions to the total POM markedly increased from 39 ± 8% during the ice-free period to 73 ± 9% during the polar night period. In comparison, while we found a significant negative correlation (r² = 0.92, p < 0.01) between protein contributions and carbohydrate contributions, lipid contributions did not show any particular trend with relatively small temporal variations during the entire observation period. The substantial decrease in the average weight ratio of proteins to carbohydrates from the ice-free period (mean ± SD = 1.0 ± 0.3) to the ice-covered period (mean ± SD = 0.1 ± 0.1) indicates a preferential loss of nitrogen-based proteins compared to carbohydrates during the polar night period. Overall, the average food material (FM) concentration and calorific contents of FM in this study were within the range reported previously from the Southern Ocean. The results from this study may serve as important background data for long-term monitoring of the regional and interannual variations in the physiological state and biochemical compositions of phytoplankton resulting from future climate change in Antarctica.

Antarctic krill fishery effects over penguin populations under adverse climate conditions: Implications for the management of fishing practices

Fast climate changes in the western Antarctic Peninsula are reducing krill density, which along with increased fishing activities in recent decades, may have had synergistic effects on penguin populations. We tested that assumption by crossing data on fishing activities and Southern Annular Mode (an indicator of climate change in Antarctica) with penguin population data. Increases in fishing catch during the non-breeding period were likely to result in impacts on both chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarcticus) and gentoo (P. papua) populations. Catches and climate change together elevated the probability of negative population growth rates: very high fishing catch on years with warm winters and low sea ice (associated with negative Southern Annular Mode values) implied a decrease in population size in the following year. The current management of krill fishery in the Southern Ocean takes into account an arbitrary and fixed catch limit that does not reflect the variability of the krill population under effects of climate change, therefore affecting penguin populations when the environmental conditions were not favorable.

An Assessment of ERA5 Reanalysis for Antarctic Near-Surface Air Temperature

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) released its latest reanalysis dataset named ERA5 in 2017. To assess the performance of ERA5 in Antarctica, we compare the near-surface temperature data from ERA5 and ERA-Interim with the measured data from 41 weather stations. ERA5 has a strong linear relationship with monthly observations, and the statistical significant correlation coefficients (p < 0.05) are higher than 0.95 at all stations selected. The performance of ERA5 shows regional differences, and the correlations are high in West Antarctica and low in East Antarctica. Compared with ERA5, ERA-Interim has a slightly higher linear relationship with observations in the Antarctic Peninsula. ERA5 agrees well with the temperature observations in austral spring, with significant correlation coefficients higher than 0.90 and bias lower than 0.70 °C. The temperature trend from ERA5 is consistent with that from observations, in which a cooling trend dominates East Antarctica and West Antarctica, while a warming trend exists in the Antarctic Peninsula except during austral summer. Generally, ERA5 can effectively represent the temperature changes in Antarctica and its three subregions. Although ERA5 has bias, ERA5 can play an important role as a powerful tool to explore the climate change in Antarctica with sparse in situ observations.

Glacial melt disturbance shifts community metabolism of an Antarctic seafloor ecosystem from net autotrophy to heterotrophy

Climate change-induced glacial melt affects benthic ecosystems along the West Antarctic Peninsula, but current understanding of the effects on benthic primary production and respiration is limited. Here we demonstrate with a series of in situ community metabolism measurements that climate-related glacial melt disturbance shifts benthic communities from net autotrophy to heterotrophy. With little glacial melt disturbance (during cold El Niño spring 2015), clear waters enabled high benthic microalgal production, resulting in net autotrophic benthic communities. In contrast, water column turbidity caused by increased glacial melt run-off (summer 2015 and warm La Niña spring 2016) limited benthic microalgal production and turned the benthic communities net heterotrophic. Ongoing accelerations in glacial melt and run-off may steer shallow Antarctic seafloor ecosystems towards net heterotrophy, altering the metabolic balance of benthic communities and potentially impacting the carbon balance and food webs at the Antarctic seafloor.

Linking Antarctic krill larval supply and recruitment along the Antarctic Peninsula

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) larval production and overwinter survival drive recruitment variability, which in turn determines abundance trends. The Antarctic Peninsula has been described as a recruitment hot spot and as a potentially important source region for larval and juvenile krill dispersal. However, there has been no analysis to spatially resolve regional-scale krill population dynamics across life stages. We assessed spatiotemporal patterns in krill demography using two decades of austral summer data collected along the North and West Antarctic Peninsula since 1993. We identified persistent spatial segregation in the summer distribution of euphausiid larvae (E. superba plus other species), which were concentrated in oceanic waters along the continental slope, and E. superba recruits, which were concentrated in shelf and coastal waters. Mature females of E. superba were more abundant over the continental shelf than the slope or coast. Euphausiid larval abundance was relatively localized and weakly correlated between the North and West Antarctic Peninsula, while E. superba recruitment was generally synchronized throughout the entire region. Euphausiid larval abundance along the West Antarctic Peninsula slope explained E. superba recruitment in shelf and coastal waters the next year. Given the localized nature of krill productivity, it is critical to evaluate the connectivity between upstream and downstream areas of the Antarctic Peninsula and beyond. Krill fishery catch distributions and population projections in the context of a changing climate should account for ontogenetic habitat partitioning, regional population connectivity, and highly variable recruitment.

The change of nutrient situation in the Prydz Bay waters along longitude 73°E, Antarctica, in the context of global environmental change

The spatial and temporal characteristics of nutrient concentrations and their influencing factors along longitude 73°E in Prydz Bay were explored. Nutrient concentrations gradually increased from the continental shelf to the open ocean in summer surface water, and the stable environment in the bay, the chlorophyll a and the ice melting were responsible for this distribution characteristic. There was also clear annual variation of nutrients in the surface water. Average concentrations of nutrients showed the highest values in 2010, while they were the lowest in 2009, which may be influenced by El Nino. In the vertical distribution, there were close relationships between chlorophyll a PO₄-P, SiO₃-Si, S, and NO₃-N depths respectively. Moreover, the variation of water masses also influenced the distribution of nutrients. Overall, the spatial and temporal characteristics of nutrients were closely related to environmental change, and especially to the ice melting in the Prydz Bay.

Individual variation in migratory movements of chinstrap penguins leads to widespread occupancy of ice-free winter habitats over the continental shelf and deep ocean basins of the Southern Ocean

A goal of tracking migratory animals is to characterize the habitats they use and to interpret population processes with respect to conditions experienced en route to, and within, overwintering areas. For migratory seabirds with broad breeding ranges, inferring population-level effects of environmental conditions that are experienced during migratory periods would benefit by directly comparing how birds from different breeding aggregations disperse, characterizing the physical conditions of areas they use, and determining whether they occupy shared foraging areas. We therefore tracked 41 adult and juvenile chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarctica) from three breeding locations in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region during the austral winter of 2017. The satellite tracking data revealed overlap of individuals over continental shelf areas during autumn months (Mar-May), shared outbound corridors that track the southern Antarctic circumpolar current front, followed by occupancy of progressively colder, deeper, and ice-free waters that spanned the entire western hemisphere south of the Polar Front. Despite broadly similar physical environments used by individuals from different colonies, the proportion of birds from each colony that remained within 500km of their colony was positively correlated with their local population trends. This suggests that local migration strategies near the Antarctic Peninsula may benefit breeding populations. However, the magnitude of inter-colony and intra-colony overlap was generally low given the broad scale of habitats occupied. High individual variation in winter movements suggests that habitat selection among chinstrap penguins is more opportunistic, without clear colony-specific preference for fine-scale foraging hotspots. Mixing of individuals from multiple colonies across broad regions of the Southern Ocean would expose chinstrap penguins from the Antarctic Peninsula to a shared environmental experience that helps explain the regional decline in their abundance.

Oceanographic Variability induced by Tides, the Intraseasonal Cycle and Warm Subsurface Water intrusions in Maxwell Bay, King George Island (West-Antarctica)

We examine the hydrographic variability induced by tides, winds, and the advance of the austral summer, in Maxwell Bay and tributary fjords, based on two recent oceanographic campaigns. We provide the first description in this area of the intrusion of relatively warm subsurface waters, which have led elsewhere in Antarctica to ice-shelf disintegration and tidewater glacier retreat. During flood tide, meltwater was found to accumulate toward the head of Maxwell Bay, freshening and warming the upper 70 m. Below 70 m, the flood tide enhances the intrusion and mixing of relatively warm modified Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (m-UCDW). Tidal stirring progressively erodes the remnants of Winter Waters found at the bottom of Marian Cove. There is a buoyancy gain through warming and freshening as the summer advances. In Maxwell Bay, the upper 105 m were 0.79 °C warmer and 0.039 PSU fresher in February than in December, changes that cannot be explained by tidal or wind-driven processes. The episodic intrusion of m-UCDW into Maxwell Bay leads to interleaving and eventually to warming, salinification and deoxygenation between 80 and 200 m, with important implications for biological productivity and for the mass balance of tidewater glaciers in the area.

The interaction between island geomorphology and environmental parameters drives Adélie penguin breeding phenology on neighboring islands near Palmer Station, Antarctica

Despite many studies on Adélie penguin breeding phenology, understanding the drivers of clutch initiation dates (CIDs, egg 1 lay date) is limited or lacks consensus. Here, we investigated Adélie penguin CIDs over 25 years (1991-2016) on two neighboring islands, Torgersen and Humble (<1 km apart), in a rapidly warming region near Palmer Station, Antarctica. We found that sea ice was the primary large-scale driver of CIDs and precipitation was a secondary small-scale driver that fine-tunes CID to island-specific nesting habitat geomorphology. In general, CIDs were earlier (later) when the spring sea ice retreat was earlier (later) and when the preceding annual ice season was shorter (longer). Island-specific effects related to precipitation and island geomorphology caused greater snow accumulation and delayed CIDs by ~2 days on Torgersen compared to Humble Island. When CIDs on the islands were similar, conditions were mild with less snow across breeding sites. At Torgersen Island, the negative relationship between CID and breeding success highlights detrimental effects of delayed breeding and/or snow on penguin fitness. Past phenological studies reported a relationship between air temperature and CID, assumed to be related to precipitation, but we found air temperature was more highly correlated to sea ice, revealing a misinterpretation of temperature effects. Finally, contrasting trends in CIDs based on temporal shifts in regional sea ice patterns revealed trends toward earlier CIDs (4-6 day advance) from 1979 to 2009 as the annual ice season shortened, and later CIDs (7-10 day delay) from 2010 to 2016 as the annual ice season lengthened. Adélie penguins tracked environmental conditions with flexible breeding phenology, but their life history remains vulnerable to subpolar weather conditions that can delay CIDs and decrease breeding success, especially on landscapes where geomorphology facilitates snow accumulation.

Impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation on Antarctic sea ice and its dynamical mechanism

The influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) on Antarctic sea ice extent has not been extensively explored. This study investigates intraseasonal variability of the sea ice extent induced by the MJO and its physical mechanism. During austral winter, the sea ice extent anomaly exhibits considerable melting and freezing as the MJO evolves. Numerical experiments and the Rossby wave theory show that the high-latitude circulation anomalies in response to the MJO are responsible for the sea ice change. The MJO-induced Rossby waves propagate into the Southern Hemisphere through the northerly ducts over the western Indian Ocean–central Africa and the Maritime Continent. The MJO-induced circulation anomalies reach high latitudes and lead to anomalous meridional temperature advection, causing changes in the sea ice extent. The time difference between the meridional wind and sea ice anomalies is ~5 days. As the MJO moves, the sea ice extent anomaly also exhibits eastward-migrating behavior. Strong sea ice melting in the total anomaly is synchronous to the evolution of the MJO, suggesting the practical usefulness of the location of the MJO for the prediction of the sea ice decrease.

Zooplankton and micronekton respond to climate fluctuations in the Amundsen Sea polynya, Antarctica

The vertical migration of zooplankton and micronekton (hereafter ‘zooplankton’) has ramifications throughout the food web. Here, we present the first evidence that climate fluctuations affect the vertical migration of zooplankton in the Southern Ocean, based on multi-year acoustic backscatter data from one of the deep troughs in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica. High net primary productivity (NPP) and the annual variation in seasonal ice cover make the Amundsen Sea coastal polynya an ideal site in which to examine how zooplankton behavior responds to climate fluctuations. Our observations show that the timing of the seasonal vertical migration and abundance of zooplankton in the seasonally varying sea ice is correlated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Zooplankton in this region migrate seasonally and overwinter at depth, returning to the surface in spring. During +SAM/La Niña periods, the at-depth overwintering period is shorter compared to −SAM/El Niño periods, and return to the surface layers starts earlier in the year. These differences may result from the higher sea ice cover and decreased NPP during +SAM/La Niña periods. This observation points to a new link between global climate fluctuations and the polar marine food web.

A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic

A newly completed 40-y record of satellite observations is used to quantify changes in Antarctic sea ice coverage since the late 1970s. Sea ice spreads over vast areas and has major impacts on the rest of the climate system, reflecting solar radiation and restricting ocean/atmosphere exchanges. The satellite record reveals that a gradual, decades-long overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extents reversed in 2014, with subsequent rates of decrease in 2014–2017 far exceeding the more widely publicized decay rates experienced in the Arctic. The rapid decreases reduced the Antarctic sea ice extents to their lowest values in the 40-y record, both on a yearly average basis (record low in 2017) and on a monthly basis (record low in February 2017).

Following over 3 decades of gradual but uneven increases in sea ice coverage, the yearly average Antarctic sea ice extents reached a record high of 12.8 × 10⁶ km² in 2014, followed by a decline so precipitous that they reached their lowest value in the 40-y 1979–2018 satellite multichannel passive-microwave record, 10.7 × 10⁶ km², in 2017. In contrast, it took the Arctic sea ice cover a full 3 decades to register a loss that great in yearly average ice extents. Still, when considering the 40-y record as a whole, the Antarctic sea ice continues to have a positive overall trend in yearly average ice extents, although at 11,300 ± 5,300 km²⋅y⁻¹, this trend is only 50% of the trend for 1979–2014, before the precipitous decline. Four of the 5 sectors into which the Antarctic sea ice cover is divided all also have 40-y positive trends that are well reduced from their 2014–2017 values. The one anomalous sector in this regard, the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, has a 40-y negative trend, with the yearly average ice extents decreasing overall in the first 3 decades, reaching a minimum in 2007, and exhibiting an overall upward trend since 2007 (i.e., reflecting a reversal in the opposite direction from the other 4 sectors and the Antarctic sea ice cover as a whole).

Aerial surveys for Antarctic minke whales (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) reveal sea ice dependent distribution patterns

This study investigates the distribution of Antarctic minke whales (AMW) in relation to sea ice concentration and variations therein. Information on AMW densities in the sea ice-covered parts of the Southern Ocean is required to contextualize abundance estimates obtained from circumpolar shipboard surveys in open waters, suggesting a 30% decline in AMW abundance. Conventional line-transect shipboard surveys for density estimation are impossible in ice-covered regions, therefore we used icebreaker-supported helicopter surveys to obtain information on AMW densities along gradients of 0%-100% of ice concentration. We conducted five helicopter surveys in the Southern Ocean, between 2006 and 2013. Distance sampling data, satellite-derived sea-ice data, and bathymetric parameters were used in generalized additive models (GAMs) to produce predictions on how the density of AMWs varied over space and time, and with environmental covariates. Ice concentration, distance to the ice edge and distance from the shelf break were found to describe the distribution of AMWs. Highest densities were predicted at the ice edge and through to medium ice concentrations. Medium densities were found up to 500 km into the ice edge in all concentrations of ice. Very low numbers of AMWs were found in the ice-free waters of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). A consistent relationship between AMW distribution and sea ice concentration weakens the support for the hypothesis that varying numbers of AMWs in ice-covered waters were responsible for observed changes in estimated abundance. The potential decline in AMW abundance stresses the need for conservation measures and further studies into the AMW population status. Very low numbers of AMWs recorded in the ice-free waters along the WAP support the hypothesis that this species is strongly dependent on sea ice and that forecasted sea ice changes have the potential of heavily impacting AMWs.

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.

Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea

Potential impact of sea-ice initialization on the interannual climate predictability over the Weddell Sea is investigated using a coupled general circulation model. Climate variability in the Weddell Sea is generally believed to have association with remote forcing such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annual Mode. However, sea-ice variability in the Weddell Sea has been recently suggested to play additional roles in modulating local atmospheric variability through changes in surface air temperature and near-surface baroclinicity. Reforecast experiments from September 1st, in which the model's sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration (SIC) are initialized with observations using nudging schemes, show improvements in predicting the observed SIC anomalies in the Weddell Sea up to four months ahead, compared to the other experiments in which only the model's SST is initialized. During austral spring (Oct-Dec) of lower-than-normal sea-ice years in the Weddell Sea, reforecast experiments with the SST and SIC initializations reasonably predict high surface air temperature anomalies in the Weddell Sea and high sea-level pressure anomalies over the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. These results suggest that accurate initialization of sea-ice conditions during austral winter is necessary for skillful prediction of climate variability over the Weddell Sea during austral spring.

Extreme spikes in DMS flux double estimates of biogenic sulfur export from the Antarctic coastal zone to the atmosphere

Biogenic dimethylsulfide (DMS) is a significant contributor to sulfur flux from the oceans to the atmosphere, and the most significant source of aerosol non sea-salt sulfate (NSS-SO₄^2-), a key regulator of global climate. Here we present the longest running time-series of DMS-water (DMS_W) concentrations in the world, obtained at the Rothera Time-Series (RaTS) station in Ryder Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). We demonstrate the first ever evaluation of interseasonal and interannual variability in DMS_W and associated flux to the atmosphere from the Antarctic coastal zone and determine the scale and importance of the region as a significant source of DMS. Impacts of climate modes such as El Niňo/Southern Oscillation are evaluated. Maximum DMS_W concentrations occurred annually in January and were primarily associated with sea-ice break-up. These concentrations resulted in extremely high (up to 968 µmol m^-2 d^-1) DMS flux over short timescales, which are not parameterised in global-scale DMS climatologies. Calculated DMS flux stayed above the aerosol nucleation threshold of 2.5 µmol m^-2 d^-1 for 60% of the year. Overall, using flux determinations from this study, the total flux of DMS-sulfur from the Austral Polar Province (APLR) was 1.1 Tg sulfur yr^-1, more than double the figure suggested by the most recent DMS climatologies.

Analysis of Physical and Biogeochemical Control Mechanisms on Summertime Surface Carbonate System Variability in the Western Ross Sea (Antarctica) Using In Situ and Satellite Data

In this study, carbonate system properties were measured in the western Ross Sea (Antarctica) over the 2005–2006 and 2011–2012 austral summers with the aim of analysing their sensitivity to physical and biogeochemical drivers. Daily Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sea ice concentration maps, obtained prior to and during the samplings, were used to analyse the sea ice evolution throughout the experiment periods. Monthly means and 8-day composite chlorophyll concentration maps from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua satellite at 4-km resolution were used to investigate inter-annual and basin scale biological variability. Chlorophyll-a concentrations in surface waters estimated by MODIS satellite data contribute to descriptions of the variability of carbonate system properties in surface waters. Mean values of carbonate system properties were comparable across both investigated years; however, the 2012 data displayed larger variability. Sea ice melting also had a pivotal role in controlling the carbonate system chemistry of the mixed layer both directly through dilution processes and indirectly by favouring the development of phytoplankton blooms. This resulted in high pH and ΩAr, and in low CT, particularly in those areas where high chlorophyll concentration was shown by satellite maps.