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Wong-Parodi G, Relihan DP, Garfin DR. A longitudinal investigation of risk perceptions and adaptation behavior in the US Gulf Coast. PNAS NEXUS 2024; 3:pgae099. [PMID: 38595802 PMCID: PMC11003376 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 04/11/2024]
Abstract
Climate change is occurring more rapidly than expected, requiring that people quickly and continually adapt to reduce human suffering. The reality is that climate change-related threats are unpredictable; thus, adaptive behavior must be continually performed even when threat saliency decreases (e.g. time has passed since climate-hazard exposure). Climate change-related threats are also intensifying; thus, new or more adaptive behaviors must be performed over time. Given the need to sustain climate change-related adaptation even when threat saliency decreases, it becomes essential to better understand how the relationship between risk perceptions and adaptation co-evolve over time. In this study, we present results from a probability-based representative sample of 2,774 Texas and Florida residents prospectively surveyed 5 times (2017-2022) in the presence and absence of exposure to tropical cyclones, a climate change-related threat. Distinct trajectories of personal risk perceptions emerged, with higher and more variable risk perceptions among the less educated and those living in Florida. Importantly, as tropical cyclone adaptation behaviors increased, personal risk perceptions decreased over time, particularly in the absence of storms, while future tropical cyclone risk perceptions remained constant. In sum, adapting occurs in response to current risk but may inhibit future action despite increasing future tropical cyclone risks. Our results suggest that programs and policies encouraging proactive adaptation investment may be warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabrielle Wong-Parodi
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
- Department of Environmental Social Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Daniel P Relihan
- Department of Psychological Science, University of California at Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Dana Rose Garfin
- Department of Community Health Sciences, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
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2
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Tang R, Wu J, Ding W, Ru Y. Impact of uncertainty induced by fatality function on future tropical cyclone risk assessment. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 902:166052. [PMID: 37543318 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2023] [Revised: 07/12/2023] [Accepted: 08/02/2023] [Indexed: 08/07/2023]
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the deadliest extreme events occurring under a warming climate. Future TC risk assessment depend on TC projection from climate models and impact function relating TC to its possible consequence. Few studies have explored the uncertainty of impact function in future TC risk assessment compared to uncertainty in future TC characteristics. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC fatality risk assessment induced by geographic and TC category-dependence of fatality function. We focus on all provinces in the mainland of China with historically recorded TC-induced fatalities and examine their TC fatality risks by assessing the difference in the annual average fatalities between current and future climate conditions. Synthetic TCs derived from four climate models and fatality functions parameterized from three grouped historical TC disaster datasets are used to observe the uncertainty induced by climate model and fatality function. Results show that the changes in the TC frequency, wind, TC-induced rainfall intensity, and exposure due to climate change in each province are dependent on the climate models. And the changes in the annual average fatality of each province are dependent on both the climate models and fatality functions. Climate models play a dominant role in determining the spatial pattern of future risk, while the fatality functions can alter the direction and magnitude of the risk change for certain provinces. Our results highlight the role of fatality function in detecting future TC risk under climate change, and inspire further TC impact studies that consider the heterogeneity of both climate conditions and geographical locations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rumei Tang
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Jidong Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People's Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Xining 810016, China.
| | - Wei Ding
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Ya Ru
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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3
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Shan K, Lin Y, Chu PS, Yu X, Song F. Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate. Nature 2023; 623:83-89. [PMID: 37758952 PMCID: PMC10620083 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06544-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2023] [Accepted: 08/15/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which often peak in autumn1,2, have destructive impacts on life and property3-5, making it crucial to determine whether any changes in intense TCs are likely to occur. Here, we identify a significant seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s in most tropical oceans, with earlier-shifting rates of 3.7 and 3.2 days per decade for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. This seasonal advance of intense TCs is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions. Using simulations from multiple global climate models, large ensembles and individual forcing experiments, the earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions is detectable and primarily driven by greenhouse gas forcing. The seasonal advance of intense TCs will increase the likelihood of intersecting with other extreme rainfall events, which usually peak in summer6,7, thereby leading to disproportionate impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kaiyue Shan
- State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Yanluan Lin
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Pao-Shin Chu
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
| | - Xiping Yu
- Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
| | - Fengfei Song
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
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4
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Zhang G. Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation. Nat Commun 2023; 14:6274. [PMID: 37805508 PMCID: PMC10560220 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41911-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 09/19/2023] [Indexed: 10/09/2023] Open
Abstract
The future risk of tropical cyclones (TCs) strongly depends on changes in TC frequency, but models have persistently produced contrasting projections. A satisfactory explanation of the projected changes also remains elusive. Here we show a warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces TC formation. This contraction manifests as stronger equatorial convection and weaker off-equatorial convection. It has been robustly projected by climate models, particularly in the northern hemisphere. This contraction shortens TC seasons by delaying the poleward migration of the intertropical convergence zone. At seasonal peaks of TC activity, the equatorial and off-equatorial components of this contraction are associated with TC-hindering environmental changes. Finally, the convection contraction and associated warming patterns can partly explain the ensemble spread in projecting future TC frequency. This study highlights the role of convection contraction and provides motivation for coordinated research to solidify our confidence in future TC risk projections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gan Zhang
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1301 W. Green Street, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA.
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5
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Anjana U, Kumar KK. New insights into the poleward migration of tropical cyclones and its association with Hadley circulation. Sci Rep 2023; 13:15009. [PMID: 37696913 PMCID: PMC10495354 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-42323-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2023] [Accepted: 09/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Recent investigations have shown a robust signature of poleward migration of the tropical cyclone latitudes using observations and climate model simulations. Most of these studies invoked the role of the Hadley circulation (HC) expansion in the poleward shifting of tropical cyclones. However, none of these studies focused on the dissection of the zonally asymmetric HC into ascending and descending regions at regional scales, which holds the key in establishing the association between these two phenomena. Here, we are reporting the poleward migration of tropical cyclones and their association with ascending region boundaries of the HC at regional scales for the first time. The results emphatically show that the tropical cyclone latitudes as well as latitudes of maximum lifetime intensity vary in tandem with boundaries of the ascending region of the HC as compared to its descending region thus providing a vital clue on processes governing poleward migration of tropical cyclones.
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Affiliation(s)
- U Anjana
- Space Physics Laboratory, VSSC/ISRO, Trivandrum, India.
- Kerala University, Trivandrum, India.
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6
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Li Y, Tang Y, Wang S, Toumi R, Song X, Wang Q. Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions. Nat Commun 2023; 14:5167. [PMID: 37620321 PMCID: PMC10449825 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40605-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/02/2023] [Indexed: 08/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Rapid intensification (RI) is an essential process in the development of strong tropical cyclones and a major challenge in prediction. RI in offshore regions is more threatening to coastal populations and economies. Although much effort has been devoted to studying basin-wide temporal-spatial fluctuations, variations of global RI events in offshore regions remain uncertain. Here, we show that compared with open oceans, where the annual RI counts do not show significant changes, offshore areas within 400 km of the coastline have experienced a significant increase in RI events, with the count tripling from 1980 to 2020. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments present more favorable conditions for this trend, and climate models show that global ocean warming has enhanced such changes. This work yields an important finding that an increasing threat of RI in coastal regions has occurred in the preceding decades, which may continue under a future warming climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi Li
- College of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
- Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
| | - Youmin Tang
- College of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
- University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, Canada.
| | - Shuai Wang
- Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, 19716, USA
| | - Ralf Toumi
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
| | - Xiangzhou Song
- College of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
- Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
| | - Qiang Wang
- College of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
- Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
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7
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Huang W, Li S, Vogt T, Xu R, Tong S, Molina T, Masselot P, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Pascal M, Royé D, Sheng Ng CF, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Schwartz J, Lavigne E, Kan H, Goodman P, Zeka A, Hashizume M, Diaz MH, De la Cruz Valencia C, Seposo X, Nunes B, Madureira J, Kim H, Lee W, Tobias A, Íñiguez C, Guo YL, Pan SC, Zanobetti A, Dang TN, Van Dung D, Geiger T, Otto C, Johnson A, Hales S, Yu P, Yang Z, Ritchie EA, Guo Y. Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: a multi-country time-series study. Lancet Planet Health 2023; 7:e694-e705. [PMID: 37558350 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00143-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2022] [Revised: 05/25/2023] [Accepted: 06/25/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The global spatiotemporal pattern of mortality risk and burden attributable to tropical cyclones is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019. METHODS The wind speed associated with cyclones from 1980 to 2019 was estimated globally through a parametric wind field model at a grid resolution of 0·5° × 0·5°. A total of 341 locations with daily mortality and temperature data from 14 countries that experienced at least one tropical cyclone day (a day with maximum sustained wind speed associated with cyclones ≥17·5 m/s) during the study period were included. A conditional quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to assess the tropical cyclone-mortality association. A meta-regression model was fitted to evaluate potential contributing factors and estimate grid cell-specific tropical cyclone effects. FINDINGS Tropical cyclone exposure was associated with an overall 6% (95% CI 4-8) increase in mortality in the first 2 weeks following exposure. Globally, an estimate of 97 430 excess deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 71 651-126 438) per decade were observed over the 2 weeks following exposure to tropical cyclones, accounting for 20·7 (95% eCI 15·2-26·9) excess deaths per 100 000 residents (excess death rate) and 3·3 (95% eCI 2·4-4·3) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio) over 1980-2019. The mortality burden exhibited substantial temporal and spatial variation. East Asia and south Asia had the highest number of excess deaths during 1980-2019: 28 744 (95% eCI 16 863-42 188) and 27 267 (21 157-34 058) excess deaths per decade, respectively. In contrast, the regions with the highest excess death ratios and rates were southeast Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. From 1980-99 to 2000-19, marked increases in tropical cyclone-related excess death numbers were observed globally, especially for Latin America and the Caribbean and south Asia. Grid cell-level and country-level results revealed further heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns such as the high and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burden in Caribbean countries or regions. INTERPRETATION Globally, short-term exposure to tropical cyclones was associated with a significant mortality burden, with highly heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. In-depth exploration of tropical cyclone epidemiology for those countries and regions estimated to have the highest and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burdens is urgently needed to help inform the development of targeted actions against the increasing adverse health impacts of tropical cyclones under a changing climate. FUNDING Australian Research Council and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenzhong Huang
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| | - Thomas Vogt
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Rongbin Xu
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Tomás Molina
- Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Pierre Masselot
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | - Dominic Royé
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Patrick Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | - César De la Cruz Valencia
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Baltazar Nunes
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Joana Madureira
- Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit-Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan; Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, NTU College of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Shih-Chun Pan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Viet Nam; Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
| | - Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
| | - Tobias Geiger
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Deutscher Wetterdienst, Climate and Environment Consultancy, Stahnsdorf, Germany
| | - Christian Otto
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Amanda Johnson
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Simon Hales
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Pei Yu
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Zhengyu Yang
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Elizabeth A Ritchie
- School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
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8
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Stansfield AM, Reed KA. Global tropical cyclone precipitation scaling with sea surface temperature. NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 2023; 6:60. [PMID: 38665269 PMCID: PMC11041753 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00391-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2022] [Accepted: 05/25/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2024]
Abstract
Understanding the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) is essential for both TC hazard forecasting and projecting how these hazards will change in the future due to climate change. This work untangles how global TC precipitation is impacted by present-day SST variability (known as apparent scaling) and by long-term changes in SST caused by climate change (known as climate scaling). A variety of datasets are used including precipitation and SST observations, realistic climate model simulations, and idealized climate model simulations. The apparent scaling rates depend on precipitation metric; examples shown here have ranges of 6.1 to 9.5% per K versus 5.9 to 9.8% per K for two different metrics. The climate scaling is estimated at about 5% per K, which is slightly less than the atmospheric moisture scaling based on thermodynamic principles of about 7% per K (i.e., the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling). The apparent scaling is greater than the climate scaling, which implies that the relationship between TC precipitation and present-day SST variability should not be used to project the long-term response of TC precipitation to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alyssa M. Stansfield
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, 100 Nicolls Rd, Stony Brook, 11794 NY USA
- Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, 3915 Laporte Ave., Fort Collins, 80521 CO USA
| | - Kevin A. Reed
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, 100 Nicolls Rd, Stony Brook, 11794 NY USA
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9
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Denniston RF, Ummenhofer CC, Emanuel K, Ingrosso R, Pausata FS, Wanamaker AD, Lachniet MS, Carr KT, Asmerom Y, Polyak VJ, Nott J, Zhang W, Villarini G, Cugley J, Brooks D, Woods D, Humphreys WF. Sensitivity of northwest Australian tropical cyclone activity to ITCZ migration since 500 CE. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadd9832. [PMID: 36630513 PMCID: PMC9833654 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.add9832] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2022] [Accepted: 12/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) regularly form in association with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and thus, its positioning has implications for global TC activity. While the poleward extent of the ITCZ has varied markedly over past centuries, the sensitivity with which TCs responded remains poorly understood from the proxy record, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present a high-resolution, composite stalagmite record of ITCZ migrations over tropical Australia for the past 1500 years. When integrated with a TC reconstruction from the Australian subtropics, this time series, along with downscaled climate model simulations, provides an unprecedented examination of the dependence of subtropical TC activity on meridional shifts in the ITCZ. TCs tracked the ITCZ at multidecadal to centennial scales, with a more southward position enhancing TC-derived rainfall in the subtropics. TCs may play an increasingly important role in Western Australia's moisture budgets as subtropical aridity increases due to anthropogenic warming.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Caroline C. Ummenhofer
- Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Kerry Emanuel
- Lorenz Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Roberto Ingrosso
- Centres ESCER (Étude et la Simulation du Climat à l’Échelle RÉgionale) and GEOTOP, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Canada
| | - Francesco S. R. Pausata
- Centres ESCER (Étude et la Simulation du Climat à l’Échelle RÉgionale) and GEOTOP, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Canada
| | - Alan D. Wanamaker
- Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | - Matthew S. Lachniet
- Department of Geoscience, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV, USA
| | - Kenneth T. Carr
- Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
- MIT-WHOI Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Science & Engineering, Cambridge and Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | - Yemane Asmerom
- MIT-WHOI Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Science & Engineering, Cambridge and Woods Hole, MA, USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA
| | - Victor J. Polyak
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA
| | - Jonathan Nott
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, Australia
| | - Wei Zhang
- IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
- Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
| | - Gabriele Villarini
- IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
| | - John Cugley
- Australian Speleological Federation, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Darren Brooks
- Australian Speleological Federation, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - David Woods
- Department of Environment and Science, Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - William F. Humphreys
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
- Department of Terrestrial Zoology, Western Australian Museum, Welshpool, DC, WA, Australia
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10
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Stas SM, Spracklen BD, Willetts PD, Le TC, Tran HD, Le TT, Ngo DT, Le AV, Le HT, Rutishauser E, Schwendike J, Marsham JH, van Kuijk M, Jew EKK, Phillips OL, Spracklen DV. Implications of tropical cyclones on damage and potential recovery and restoration of logged forests in Vietnam. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20210081. [PMID: 36373926 PMCID: PMC9661952 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2021] [Accepted: 07/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Many natural forests in Southeast Asia are degraded following decades of logging. Restoration of these forests is delayed by ongoing logging and tropical cyclones, but the implications for recovery are largely uncertain. We analysed meteorological, satellite and forest inventory plot data to assess the effect of Typhoon Doksuri, a major tropical cyclone, on the forest landscapes of central Vietnam consisting of natural forests and plantations. We estimated the return period for a cyclone of this intensity to be 40 years. Plantations were almost twice as likely to suffer cyclone damage compared to natural forests. Logged natural forests (9-12 years after cessation of government-licensed logging) were surveyed before and after the storm with 2 years between measurements and remained a small biomass carbon sink (0.1 ± 0.3 Mg C ha-1 yr-1) over this period. The cyclone reduced the carbon sink of recovering natural forests by an average of 0.85 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, less than the carbon loss due to ongoing unlicensed logging. Restoration of forest landscapes in Southeast Asia requires a reduction in unlicensed logging and prevention of further conversion of degraded natural forests to plantations, particularly in landscapes prone to tropical cyclones where natural forests provide a resilient carbon sink. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.
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Affiliation(s)
- S. M. Stas
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - B. D. Spracklen
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - P. D. Willetts
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - T. C. Le
- Viet Nature Conservation Centre, PO Box 89, No. 6 Dinh Le Street, Hanoi, Viet Nam
| | - H. D. Tran
- Viet Nature Conservation Centre, PO Box 89, No. 6 Dinh Le Street, Hanoi, Viet Nam
| | - T. T. Le
- Viet Nature Conservation Centre, PO Box 89, No. 6 Dinh Le Street, Hanoi, Viet Nam
| | - D. T. Ngo
- Center for Agriculture Forestry Research and Development, University of Agriculture and Forestry, Hue University, 102 Phung Hung Street, Hue, Viet Nam
| | - A. V. Le
- Center for Agriculture Forestry Research and Development, University of Agriculture and Forestry, Hue University, 102 Phung Hung Street, Hue, Viet Nam
| | - H. T. Le
- Center for Agriculture Forestry Research and Development, University of Agriculture and Forestry, Hue University, 102 Phung Hung Street, Hue, Viet Nam
| | - E. Rutishauser
- Info Flora, Conservatory and Botanical Gardens, PO Box 71, CH-1292 Chambésy-Genève, Switzerland
| | - J. Schwendike
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - J. H. Marsham
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - M. van Kuijk
- Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht University, PO Box 80084, 3508 TB Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - E. K. K. Jew
- University of York, Heslington, York YO8 5DD, UK
| | - O. L. Phillips
- School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - D. V. Spracklen
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
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11
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Tan X, Liu Y, Wu X, Liu B, Chen X. Examinations on global changes in the total and spatial extent of tropical cyclone precipitation relating to rapid intensification. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 853:158555. [PMID: 36075425 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158555] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2022] [Revised: 07/11/2022] [Accepted: 09/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Moderate tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) is of great significance to regional water resource supply, while extreme TCP could bring significant adverse impacts to ecosystems and society, especially when tropical cyclones intensify rapidly, leaving no time to take prevention actions. Whether rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) affect TCP in both land and ocean remains unknown. Here we classified TCs which have undergone increases in the maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) by at least 30 knots within 24-h into RI category. We analyzed TCP totals provided by daily precipitation from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) and spatial extent from 1983 to 2019 in the four categories based on regions (land and ocean) and RI-experiencing characteristics (with- and without-RI). TCP totals and spatial extent was identified by the restricted moving neighborhood method and semi-variogram framework. The results show that TCP totals on the ocean are larger than those on the land, since RI-experiencing TCP are higher than TCP without RI-experiencing, although RI processes tend to increase TCP totals in the extremely high percentiles more significantly on land than ocean. The effects of RI processes on global TCP spatial extent are not statistically significant, and there are no definite relations between MSW and TCP spatial extent. The four regions of the Northeast Pacific Ocean (EP), South Pacific Ocean (SP), Northwest Pacific Ocean (WP), and North Atlantic Ocean (NA) show increases in regional mean and extreme TCP totals. The highest increase in the extreme TCP totals (0.37 mm day-1 year-1) over the NA region occurs in the RI_ocean category, which is 2.6 times the average positive enhancement trend across all basins. The increasing rate of the extreme TCP totals over the WP region is higher in track points with RI-experiencing than without RI-experiencing. The category of RI_land over the regions of NA, EP and SP shows a significant increase in the regional mean TCP spatial extent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuezhi Tan
- Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, PR China; School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China.
| | - Yaxin Liu
- Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China; School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China
| | - Xinxin Wu
- Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China; School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China
| | - Bingjun Liu
- Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, PR China; School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China
| | - Xiaohong Chen
- Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China; School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China
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12
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Ibanez T, Platt WJ, Bellingham PJ, Vieilledent G, Franklin J, Martin PH, Menkes C, Pérez-Salicrup DR, Russell-Smith J, Keppel G. Altered cyclone-fire interactions are changing ecosystems. TRENDS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2022; 27:1218-1230. [PMID: 36244895 DOI: 10.1016/j.tplants.2022.08.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2021] [Revised: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Global change is altering interactions between ecological disturbances. We review interactions between tropical cyclones and fires that affect woody biomes in many islands and coastal areas. Cyclone-induced damage to trees can increase fuel loads on the ground and dryness in the understory, which increases the likelihood, intensity, and area of subsequent fires. In forest biomes, cyclone-fire interactions may initiate a grass-fire cycle and establish stable open-canopy biomes. In cyclone-prone regions, frequent cyclone-enhanced fires may generate and maintain stable open-canopy biomes (e.g., savannas and woodlands). We discuss how global change is transforming fire and cyclone regimes, extensively altering cyclone-fire interactions. These altered cyclone-fire interactions are shifting biomes away from historical states and causing loss of biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Ibanez
- AMAP, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Montpellier, France.
| | - William J Platt
- Department of Biological Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
| | - Peter J Bellingham
- Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand; School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | | | - Janet Franklin
- Department of Botany and Plant Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, USA; Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA
| | - Patrick H Martin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208, USA
| | - Christophe Menkes
- ENTROPIE, UMR 9220, IRD, Univ. de la Réunion, CNRS, 101 Promenade Roger Laroque, Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | - Diego R Pérez-Salicrup
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 58190, Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico
| | - Jeremy Russell-Smith
- Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, 0909, Northern Territory, Australia; International Savanna Fire Management Initiative (ISFMI), Level 4, 346 Kent Street, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia
| | - Gunnar Keppel
- UniSA STEM and Future Industries Institute, University of South Australia, GPO Box 2471, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia
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13
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Tu S, Chan JCL, Xu J, Zhong Q, Zhou W, Zhang Y. Increase in tropical cyclone rain rate with translation speed. Nat Commun 2022; 13:7325. [PMID: 36443318 PMCID: PMC9705401 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35113-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2022] [Accepted: 11/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
In general, tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall accumulation usually decreases with faster TC translation speed but increases with heavier rain rate. However, how the TC rain rate changes with translation speed is unclear. Here we show that, in all TC basins, the average TC rain rate significantly increases with translation speed. On average, the rain rate in a fast-moving TC is 24% higher than in a slow one. This difference increases with TC intensity, with category 3-5 TCs having a 42% increase while tropical depressions exhibit only a 9% increase. The increase in the average TC rain rate with translation speed is mainly caused by the TC net inflow in the lower troposphere, as well as vertical wind shear. These findings have important implications not only for a deeper understanding of rain rate changes in a translating TC but also for short-term forecasts of TC rainfall and disaster preparedness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shifei Tu
- grid.411846.e0000 0001 0685 868XChina Meteorological Administration-Guangdong Ocean University (CMA-GDOU) Joint Laboratory for Marine Meteorology & South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China ,grid.411846.e0000 0001 0685 868XCollege of Ocean and Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China ,grid.411846.e0000 0001 0685 868XShenzhen Institute of Guangdong Ocean University, Shenzhen, China
| | - Johnny C. L. Chan
- grid.35030.350000 0004 1792 6846Low-Carbon and Climate Impact Research Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China ,grid.8658.30000 0001 2234 550XShanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China ,Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai, China
| | - Jianjun Xu
- grid.411846.e0000 0001 0685 868XChina Meteorological Administration-Guangdong Ocean University (CMA-GDOU) Joint Laboratory for Marine Meteorology & South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China ,grid.411846.e0000 0001 0685 868XShenzhen Institute of Guangdong Ocean University, Shenzhen, China
| | - Quanjia Zhong
- grid.9227.e0000000119573309State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Wen Zhou
- grid.35030.350000 0004 1792 6846Low-Carbon and Climate Impact Research Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China ,grid.8547.e0000 0001 0125 2443Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yu Zhang
- grid.411846.e0000 0001 0685 868XChina Meteorological Administration-Guangdong Ocean University (CMA-GDOU) Joint Laboratory for Marine Meteorology & South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China ,grid.411846.e0000 0001 0685 868XCollege of Ocean and Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China
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14
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Bhatia K, Baker A, Yang W, Vecchi G, Knutson T, Murakami H, Kossin J, Hodges K, Dixon K, Bronselaer B, Whitlock C. A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification. Nat Commun 2022; 13:6626. [PMID: 36333371 PMCID: PMC9636401 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34321-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 10/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Tropical cyclone rapid intensification events often cause destructive hurricane landfalls because they are associated with the strongest storms and forecasts with the highest errors. Multi-decade observational datasets of tropical cyclone behavior have recently enabled documentation of upward trends in tropical cyclone rapid intensification in several basins. However, a robust anthropogenic signal in global intensification trends and the physical drivers of intensification trends have yet to be identified. To address these knowledge gaps, here we compare the observed trends in intensification and tropical cyclone environmental parameters to simulated natural variability in a high-resolution global climate model. In multiple basins and the global dataset, we detect a significant increase in intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments around tropical cyclones have become more favorable for intensification, and climate models show anthropogenic warming has significantly increased the probability of these changes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Alexander Baker
- grid.9435.b0000 0004 0457 9566National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, UK
| | - Wenchang Yang
- grid.16750.350000 0001 2097 5006Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Gabriel Vecchi
- grid.16750.350000 0001 2097 5006Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA ,grid.16750.350000 0001 2097 5006High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Thomas Knutson
- grid.482795.50000 0000 9269 5516NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Hiroyuki Murakami
- grid.482795.50000 0000 9269 5516NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - James Kossin
- The Climate Service, an S&P Global company, Madison, WI USA
| | - Kevin Hodges
- grid.9435.b0000 0004 0457 9566National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, UK
| | - Keith Dixon
- grid.482795.50000 0000 9269 5516NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | | | - Carolyn Whitlock
- grid.438582.00000 0004 0570 0727NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, and Engility Inc., Dover, NJ USA
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15
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Korznikov K, Kislov D, Doležal J, Petrenko T, Altman J. Tropical cyclones moving into boreal forests: Relationships between disturbance areas and environmental drivers. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 844:156931. [PMID: 35772527 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2022] [Revised: 06/20/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are common disturbance agents in tropical and subtropical latitudes. With global warming, TCs began to move to northern latitudes, with devastating effects on boreal forests. However, it remains unclear where and when these extraordinary events occur and how they affect forest structure and ecosystem functioning. Hence knowing which geomorphological features, landforms, and forest types are most susceptible to severe wind disturbance is vital to better predict the future impacts of intensifying tropical cyclones on boreal forests. In October 2015, catastrophic TC Dujuan hit the island of Sakhalin in the Russian Far East. With a wind speed of 63 m·s-1, it became the strongest wind recorded in Sakhalin, damaging >42,000 ha of native forests with different levels of severity. We used high-resolution RGB satellite images, DEM-derived geomorphological patterns, and the U-Net-like convolutional neural network to quantify the damaged area in specific landform, forest type, and windthrow patch size categories. We found that large gaps (>1 ha) represent >40 % of the damaged area while small gaps (<0.1 ha) only 20 %. The recorded canopy gaps are very large for the southern boreal forest. We found that the aspect (slope exposure) is the most important in explaining the damaged area, followed by canopy closure and landform type. Closed-canopy coniferous forests on steep, west-facing slopes (typical of convex reliefs such as ridges, spurs, and peaks) are at a much higher risk of being disturbed by TCs than open-canopy mountain birch forests or coniferous forests and broadleaved riparian forests in concave reliefs such as valley bottoms. We suggest that the projected ongoing poleward migration of TCs will lead to an unprecedentedly large area of disturbed forest, which results in complex changes in forest dynamics and ecosystem functioning. Our findings are crucial for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies under future changes in TC activity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kirill Korznikov
- Institute of Botany, the Czech Academy of Sciences, Třeboň 379 01, Czech Republic; Botanical Garden-Institute, the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladivostok 690024, Russia.
| | - Dmitry Kislov
- Botanical Garden-Institute, the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladivostok 690024, Russia
| | - Jiří Doležal
- Institute of Botany, the Czech Academy of Sciences, Třeboň 379 01, Czech Republic; Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, České Budějovice 370 05, Czech Republic
| | - Tatyana Petrenko
- Botanical Garden-Institute, the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladivostok 690024, Russia
| | - Jan Altman
- Institute of Botany, the Czech Academy of Sciences, Třeboň 379 01, Czech Republic; Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague 6 -, Suchdol 165 21, Czech Republic
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16
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Tarabochia‐Gast AT, Michanowicz DR, Bernstein AS. Flood Risk to Hospitals on the United States Atlantic and Gulf Coasts From Hurricanes and Sea Level Rise. GEOHEALTH 2022; 6:e2022GH000651. [PMID: 36203949 PMCID: PMC9521195 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000651] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2022] [Revised: 08/16/2022] [Accepted: 09/05/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Hurricanes have caused major healthcare system disruptions. No systematic assessment of hurricane risk to United States hospital-based healthcare delivery has been performed. Here, we show that 25 of 78 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) on the United States Atlantic and Gulf Coasts have half or more of their hospitals at risk of flooding from relatively weak hurricanes. 0.82 m of sea level rise expected within this century from climate change increases the odds of hospital flooding 22%. Furthermore, in 18 MSAs at least half of the roads within 1.6 km of hospitals were at risk of flooding from a category 2 storm. These findings identify previously undescribed risks to hospital-based care delivery in Atlantic and Gulf Coast communities. They suggest that lower intensity hurricanes can have outsized impacts on healthcare access, particularly in places where per capita bed availability is low.
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Affiliation(s)
- A. T. Tarabochia‐Gast
- Center for Climate, Health and the Global EnvironmentHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public HealthBostonMAUSA
- Department of Family MedicineBoston University School of MedicineBostonMAUSA
| | - D. R. Michanowicz
- Center for Climate, Health and the Global EnvironmentHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public HealthBostonMAUSA
- Physicians, Scientists, and Engineers for Healthy EnergyOaklandCAUSA
| | - A. S. Bernstein
- Center for Climate, Health and the Global EnvironmentHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public HealthBostonMAUSA
- Boston Children's HospitalBostonMAUSA
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17
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Rousseau-Rizzi R, Emanuel K. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s-1980s. Nat Commun 2022; 13:5074. [PMID: 36038579 PMCID: PMC9424526 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32779-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2021] [Accepted: 08/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Atlantic hurricane activity experienced a pronounced lull during the 1970s and 1980s. The current explanation that anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing cooled the sea surface locally fails to capture the magnitude of this large decrease in activity. To explain this hurricane drought, we propose that the radiative effects of sulfate aerosols from Europe and North-America decreased precipitation in the Sahara-Sahel region, leading to an enhancement of dust regional emissions and transport over the Atlantic. This dust in turn enhanced the local decrease of sea-surface temperature and of hurricane activity. Here, we show that dust emissions from the Sahara peaked in phase with regional sulfate aerosol optical thickness and Sahel drought conditions, and that dust optical depth variations alone can explain nearly half of the sea-surface temperature depression in the 1970s and 1980s. Atlantic hurricane numbers noticeably decreased in the 1970s and 1980s partly due to the cooling effect of eolian dust lofted from the Sahara, in response to local climate effects of aerosol pollutants emitted from Europe and North America.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi
- Lorenz Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
| | - Kerry Emanuel
- Lorenz Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA
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18
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Trends of Tropical Cyclone Translation Speed over the Western North Pacific during 1980−2018. ATMOSPHERE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13060896] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Tropical cyclone (TC) translation speed often affects the time of strong wind attacks and precipitation accumulation in the areas that TCs pass through. Therefore, the trend of TC translation speed has important implications for TC-related risks in the current and future climate. In this paper, the trends of TC translation speed over the Western North Pacific (WNP) from 1980 to 2018 are analyzed, and TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) is proposed as a factor related to the interdecadal change of translation speed. During the periods with accurate data, 1980–1997 shows a decreasing trend in TC translation speed while an increasing trend was found in 1998–2018. The main lifetime period contributing to a TC translation speed change is before the occurrence of the LMI. The change in the trend is related to both the TC’s characteristics itself and the environmental factors. For the period 1998–2018, an increasing trend of TC intensity has a significant influence on the trend of translation speed. For the environmental factors, a trend of east wind enhancement at and above 500 hPa as the steering flow is found mostly correlated in the active TC region of the WNP with westward translation before reaching LMI, accompanied by a weakening trend of 200–850 hPa vertical wind shear, and an increasing trend of potential intensity.
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19
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Murakami H. Substantial global influence of anthropogenic aerosols on tropical cyclones over the past 40 years. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabn9493. [PMID: 35544575 PMCID: PMC9094658 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abn9493] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Over the past 40 years, anthropogenic aerosols have been substantially decreasing over Europe and the United States owing to pollution control measures, whereas they have increased in South and East Asia because of the economic and industrial growth in these regions. However, it is not yet clear how the changes in anthropogenic aerosols have altered global tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we reveal that the decreases in aerosols over Europe and the United States have contributed to significant decreases in TCs over the Southern Hemisphere as well as increases in TCs over the North Atlantic, whereas the increases in aerosols in South and East Asia have exerted substantial decreases in TCs over the western North Pacific. These results suggest that how society controls future emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will exert a substantial impact on the world's TC activity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiroyuki Murakami
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
- Corresponding author.
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20
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Bloemendaal N, de Moel H, Martinez AB, Muis S, Haigh ID, van der Wiel K, Haarsma RJ, Ward PJ, Roberts MJ, Dullaart JCM, Aerts JCJH. A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabm8438. [PMID: 35476436 PMCID: PMC9045717 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abm8438] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2021] [Accepted: 03/09/2022] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
There is considerable uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity, particularly at local scales. This uncertainty complicates risk assessments and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. We present a novel approach to overcome this problem, using the statistical model STORM to generate 10,000 years of synthetic TCs under past (1980-2017) and future climate (SSP585; 2015-2050) conditions from an ensemble of four high-resolution climate models. We then derive high-resolution (10-km) wind speed return period maps up to 1000 years to assess local-scale changes in wind speed probabilities. Our results indicate that the probability of intense TCs, on average, more than doubles in all regions except for the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Mexico. Our unique and innovative methodology enables globally consistent comparison of TC risk in both time and space and can be easily adapted to accommodate alternative climate scenarios and time periods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nadia Bloemendaal
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Hans de Moel
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Andrew B. Martinez
- Office of Macroeconomic Analysis, U.S. Department of the Treasury, 1500 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20220, USA
- Climate Econometrics, Nuffield College, Oxford OX1 1NF, UK
| | - Sanne Muis
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Deltares, 2600 MH Delft, Netherlands
| | - Ivan D. Haigh
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK
| | - Karin van der Wiel
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), 3731 GA De Bilt, Netherlands
| | - Reindert J. Haarsma
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), 3731 GA De Bilt, Netherlands
| | - Philip J. Ward
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | | | - Job C. M. Dullaart
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
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21
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Where are People Dying in Disasters, and Where is it Being Studied? A Mapping Review of Scientific Articles on Tropical Cyclone Mortality in English and Chinese. Prehosp Disaster Med 2022; 37:409-416. [PMID: 35379375 PMCID: PMC9118061 DOI: 10.1017/s1049023x22000541] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Background: Tropical cyclones are a recurrent, lethal hazard. Climate change, demographic, and development trends contribute to increasing hazards and vulnerability. This mapping review of articles on tropical cyclone mortality assesses geographic publication patterns, research gaps, and priorities for investigation to inform evidence-based risk reduction. Methods: A mapping review of published scientific articles on tropical cyclone-related mortality indexed in PubMed and EMBASE (English) and SINOMED and CNKI (Chinese), focusing on research approach, location, and storm information, was conducted. Results were compared with data on historical tropical cyclone disasters. Findings: A total of 150 articles were included, 116 in English and 34 in Chinese. Nine cyclones accounted for 61% of specific event analyses. The United States (US) reported 0.76% of fatalities but was studied in 51% of articles, 96% in English and four percent in Chinese. Asian nations reported 90.4% of fatalities but were studied in 39% of articles, 50% in English and 50% in Chinese. Within the US, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania experienced 4.59% of US tropical cyclones but were studied in 24% of US articles. Of the 12 articles where data were collected beyond six months from impact, 11 focused on storms in the US. Climate change was mentioned in eight percent of article abstracts. Interpretation: Regions that have historically experienced high mortality from tropical cyclones have not been studied as extensively as some regions with lower mortality impacts. Long-term mortality and the implications of climate change have not been extensively studied nor discussed in most settings. Research in highly impacted settings should be prioritized.
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22
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More tropical cyclones are striking coasts with major intensities at landfall. Sci Rep 2022; 12:5236. [PMID: 35347203 PMCID: PMC8960794 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-09287-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2021] [Accepted: 03/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
In this study, we show that the number of annual global tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls with major landfall intensity (LI ≥ 50 m s−1) has nearly doubled from 1982 to 2020. The lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of global major landfalling TCs has been increasing by 0.8 m s−1 per decade (p < 0.05), but this significance of intensity change disappears at landfall (0.3 m s−1 per decade, p = 0.69). The lack of a significant LI trend is caused by the much larger variance of LI than that of LMI in all basins and explains why a significant count change of TCs with major intensity at landfall has only now emerged. Basin-wide TC trends of intensity and spatial distribution have been reported, but this long-term major TC landfall count change may be the most socio-economic significant.
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23
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Kamimura K, Nanko K, Matsumoto A, Ueno S, Gardiner J, Gardiner B. Tree dynamic response and survival in a category-5 tropical cyclone: The case of super typhoon Trami. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabm7891. [PMID: 35275731 PMCID: PMC8916734 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abm7891] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2021] [Accepted: 01/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
In the future with climate change, we expect more forest and tree damage due to the increasing strength and changing trajectories of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, to date, we have limited information to estimate likely damage levels, and nobody has ever measured exactly how forest trees behave mechanically during a TC. In 2018, a category-5 TC destroyed trees in our ongoing research plots, in which we were measuring tree movement and wind speed in two different tree spacing plots. We found damaged trees in only the wider spaced plot. Here, we present how trees dynamically respond to strong winds during a TC. Sustained strong winds obviously trigger the damage to trees and forests but inter-tree spacing is also a key factor because the level of support from neighboring trees modifies the effective "stiffness" against the wind both at the single tree and whole forest stand level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kana Kamimura
- School of Science and Technology, Shinshu University, Minamiminowa, Nagano, Japan
| | - Kazuki Nanko
- Department of Disaster Prevention, Meteorology and Hydrology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Asako Matsumoto
- Department of Forest Molecular Genetics and Biotechnology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Saneyoshi Ueno
- Department of Forest Molecular Genetics and Biotechnology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - James Gardiner
- Institute of Life Course and Medical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Barry Gardiner
- Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany
- Institut Européen de la Forêt Cultivée, Cestas, France
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24
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On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall. Sci Rep 2022; 12:3288. [PMID: 35228600 PMCID: PMC8885634 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-07310-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2021] [Accepted: 02/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
It remains unclear how tropical cyclones (TCs) decay from their ocean lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) to landfall intensity (LI), yet this stage is of fundamental importance governing the socio-economic impact of TCs. Here we show that TCs decay on average by 25% from LMI to LI. A logistic decay model of energy production by ocean enthalpy input and surface dissipation by frictional drag, can physically connect the LMI to LI. The logistic model fits the observed intensity decay as well as an empirically exponential decay does, but with a clear physical foundation. The distance between locations of LMI and TC landfall is found to dominate the variability of the decay from the LMI to LI, whereas environmental conditions are generally less important. A major TC at landfall typically has a very large LMI close to land. The LMI depends on the heating by ocean warming, but the LMI location is also important to future landfall TC intensity changes which are of socio-economic importance.
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25
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Abstract
Hurricanes can cause severe damage to tropical forests. To understand the nature of hurricane impacts, we analyze and compare immediate effects from category-4 hurricane María in 2017 and category-3 hurricane Hugo in 1989 at Bisley Experimental Watersheds (BEW) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We show that hurricane María caused lower mortality than hurricane Hugo, even though hurricane María was a stronger event with higher sustained wind. The lower mortality was due to the combination of lower accumulated cyclone energy at the site and more wind-resistant forest structure and composition at the time of disturbance. We compare our study site with a nearby location that has the same forest type, Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot (LFDP), and describe the similarities and differences of mortality and impact factors between the two sites during the two events. During hurricane Hugo, LFDP experienced much lower mortality than BEW, even though the accumulated cyclone energy at LFDP was higher. The difference in mortality was due to contrasting forest structure and composition of the two sites. Our results demonstrate that forest structure and composition at the time of the disturbance were more critical to hurricane-induced mortality at the two sites than accumulated cyclone energy.
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26
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Theoretical Study and Numerical Experiment on the Influence of Trend Changes on Correlation Coefficient. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13010066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
When one of two time series undergoes an obvious change in trend, the correlation coefficient between the two will be distorted. In the context of global warming, most meteorological time series have obvious linear trends, so how do variations in these trends affect the correlation coefficient? In this paper, the correlation between time series with trend changes is studied theoretically and numerically. Adopting the trend coefficient, which reflects the nature and size of the trend change, we derive a formula r = f(k, l) for the correlation coefficient of time series X and Y with respective trend coefficients k and l. Analysis of the function graph shows that the changes in correlation coefficient with respect to the trend coefficients produce a twisted saddle surface, and the saddle point coordinates are given by the trend coefficients of time series X and Y with the opposite signs. The curve f(k, l) = f(0, 0) divides the coordinate planes into regions where f(k, l) > f(0, 0) and f(k, l) < f(0, 0). When the trend coefficients k and l are very small and the correlation coefficient is also very small, then k > 0 and l > 0 (or k < 0 and l < 0) amplifies a positive correlation, whereas k > 0 and l < 0 (or k < 0 and l > 0) amplifies a negative correlation, as found in previous research. Finally, experiments using meteorological data verify the reliability and effectiveness of the theory.
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27
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Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes. Sci Rep 2021; 11:22269. [PMID: 34782686 PMCID: PMC8592988 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-01612-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2021] [Accepted: 10/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
It has been challenging to detect trends of tropical cyclone (TC) properties due to temporal heterogeneities and short duration of the direct observations. TCs impact the ocean surface temperature by creating cold wakes as a "fingerprint". Here we infer changes of the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), size and integrated kinetic energy from the cold wakes for the period 1982-2019. We find a globally enhanced local cold wake amplitude 3 days after the LMI of - 0.12 ± 0.04 °C per decade whereas the cold wake size does not show any significant change. Multivariate regression models based on the observed ocean cooling, the TC translation speed and the ocean mixed layer depth are applied to infer LMI and TC size. The inferred annual mean global LMI has increased by 1.0 ± 0.7 m s-1 per decade. This inferred trend is between that found for two directly observed data sets. However, the TC size and the TC destructive potential measured by the integrated kinetic energy, have not altered significantly. This analysis provides new independent and indirect evidence of recent TC LMI increases, but a stable size and integrated kinetic energy.
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28
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Feng X, Klingaman NP, Hodges KI. Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to changes in cyclone seasonality. Nat Commun 2021; 12:6210. [PMID: 34707112 PMCID: PMC8551271 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26369-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2020] [Accepted: 09/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
The average location of observed western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) has shifted north over the last several decades, but the cause remains not fully understood. Here we show that, for the annual average, the observed northward migration of WNP TCs is related to changes in TC seasonality, not to a northward migration in all seasons. Normally, peak-season (July–September) TCs form and travel further north than late-season (October–December) TCs. In recent decades, related to less frequent late-season TCs, seasonally higher-latitude TCs contribute relatively more to the annual-average location and seasonally lower-latitude TCs contribute less. We show that the change in TC seasonality is related to the different responses of late-season and peak-season TC occurrence to a stronger Pacific Walker Circulation. Our findings provide a perspective on long-term trends in TC activity, by decomposing the annual-average statistics into seasonal components, which could respond differently to anthropogenic forcing. Tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific have shifted north in recent decades, but the reasons for this are not well understood. Here, the authors show that this is caused by changes in the seasonality of tropical cyclones and is mainly driven by fewer late-season storms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiangbo Feng
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
| | - Nicholas P Klingaman
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Kevin I Hodges
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
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29
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Robinson WA. Climate change and extreme weather: A review focusing on the continental United States. JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (1995) 2021; 71:1186-1209. [PMID: 34128774 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2021.1942319] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2021] [Revised: 06/03/2021] [Accepted: 06/04/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are warming the Earth. It is likely that the greatest impacts of climate change on human and natural systems will come from increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather and climate events. Some increases in such extremes are already being detected, and this trend is projected to continue as Earth warms. Here we review the overarching climate drivers of increases in extreme weather and address the context in which extremes occur and the challenges of projecting future changes. The observational evidence for climate-driven increases in extremes and the implications of model projections are reviewed for heat and drought and several types of storms: tropical cyclones, midlatitude storms, and severe local weather, focusing on those changes most relevant to the continental United States. We emphasize the overall observed and modeled trends in extreme weather in which we have the greatest confidence, because they are consistent with our fundamental understanding of weather and climate. Despite remaining uncertainty about many details, especially in model-based projections, the signal of increasing extremes is sufficiently clear that it demands a robust human response, in limiting future emissions of greenhouse gases and in making our human systems more resilient to further changes that are inevitable as Earth continues to warm.Implications: By placing observed and projected changes in extreme weather in the context of our fundamental understanding of physics and statistics, this review makes it clear that these are significant and impactful changes that demand a robust human response.
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Affiliation(s)
- Walter A Robinson
- Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
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30
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Beyond the hockey stick: Climate lessons from the Common Era. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:2112797118. [PMID: 34561309 PMCID: PMC8488652 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2112797118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
I review the significant developments, current challenges, and prospective future directions in the subfield of paleoclimatology of the Common Era since the publication of the now iconic “hockey stick” curve by the author and collaborators more than two decades ago, with a focus on how paleoclimate information can inform our understanding of the impact of human-caused climate change. More than two decades ago, my coauthors, Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes, and I published the now iconic “hockey stick” curve. It was a simple graph, derived from large-scale networks of diverse climate proxy (“multiproxy”) data such as tree rings, ice cores, corals, and lake sediments, that captured the unprecedented nature of the warming taking place today. It became a focal point in the debate over human-caused climate change and what to do about it. Yet, the apparent simplicity of the hockey stick curve betrays the dynamicism and complexity of the climate history of past centuries and how it can inform our understanding of human-caused climate change and its impacts. In this article, I discuss the lessons we can learn from studying paleoclimate records and climate model simulations of the “Common Era,” the period of the past two millennia during which the “signal” of human-caused warming has risen dramatically from the background of natural variability.
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31
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Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12060689] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresses the modeling part of the program. First, a unique coupled system to simulate TCs in the SWIO is developed. The ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling is considered along with a coherent coupling between sea surface state, wind field, aerosol, microphysics, and radiation. This coupled system is illustrated through several simulations of TCs: the impact of air–sea flux parameterizations on the evolution of TC Fantala is examined, the full coupling developed during the program is illustrated on TC Idai, and the potential of novel observations like space-borne synthetic aperture radar and sea turtles to validate the atmosphere and ocean models is presented with TC Herold. Secondly, the evolution of cyclonic activity in the SWIO during the second half of the 21st century is assessed. It was addressed both using climate simulation and through the implementation of a pseudo global warming method in the high-resolution coupled modeling platform. Our results suggest that the Mascarene Archipelago should experience an increase of TC related hazards in the medium term.
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32
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Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 1: Overview and Observing Component of the Research Project RENOVRISK-CYCLONE. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12050544] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The international research program “ReNovRisk-CYCLONE” (RNR-CYC, 2017–2021) directly involves 20 partners from 5 countries of the south-west Indian-Ocean. It aims at improving the observation and modelling of tropical cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean, as well as to foster regional cooperation and improve public policies adapted to present and future tropical cyclones risk in this cyclonic basin. This paper describes the structure and main objectives of this ambitious research project, with emphasis on its observing components, which allowed integrating numbers of innovative atmospheric and oceanic observations (sea-turtle borne and seismic data, unmanned airborne system, ocean gliders), as well as combining standard and original methods (radiosoundings and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) atmospheric soundings, seismic and in-situ swell sampling, drone and satellite imaging) to support research on tropical cyclones from the local to the basin-scale.
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33
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Estimation of Extreme Significant Wave Height in the Northwest Pacific Using Satellite Altimeter Data Focused on Typhoons (1992–2016). REMOTE SENSING 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/rs13061063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The estimation of extreme ocean wave heights is important for understanding the ocean’s response to long-term changes in the ocean environment and for the effective coastal management of potential disasters in coastal areas. In order to estimate extreme wave height values in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, a 100-year return period were calculated by applying a Peak over Threshold (PoT) method to satellite altimeter SWH data from 1992 to 2016. Satellite altimeter SWH data were validated using in situ measurements from the Ieodo Ocean Research Station (IORS) south of Korea and the Donghae buoy of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) off the eastern coast of Korea. The spatial distribution and seasonal variations of the estimated 100-year return period SWHs in the Northwest Pacific Ocean were presented. To quantitatively analyze the suitability of the PoT method in the Northwest Pacific, where typhoons frequently occur, the estimated 100-year return period SWHs were compared by classifying the regions as containing negligible or significant typhoon effects. Seasonal variations of extreme SWHs within the upper limit of 0.1% and the PoT-based extreme SWHs indicated the effect of typhoons on the high SWHs in the East China Sea and the southern part of the Northwest Pacific during summer and fall. In addition, this study discusses the limitations of satellite altimeter SWH data in the estimation of 100-year extreme SWHs.
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34
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Parks RM, Anderson GB, Nethery RC, Navas-Acien A, Dominici F, Kioumourtzoglou MA. Tropical cyclone exposure is associated with increased hospitalization rates in older adults. Nat Commun 2021; 12:1545. [PMID: 33750775 PMCID: PMC7943804 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21777-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2020] [Accepted: 01/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Hurricanes and other tropical cyclones have devastating effects on society. Previous case studies have quantified their impact on some health outcomes for particular tropical cyclones, but a comprehensive assessment over longer periods is currently missing. Here, we used data on 70 million Medicare hospitalizations and tropical cyclone exposures over 16 years (1999-2014). We formulated a conditional quasi-Poisson model to examine how tropical cyclone exposure (days greater than Beaufort scale gale-force wind speed; ≥34 knots) affect hospitalizations for 13 mutually-exclusive, clinically-meaningful causes. We found that tropical cyclone exposure was associated with average increases in hospitalizations from several causes over the week following exposure, including respiratory diseases (14.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.9-17.9%); infectious and parasitic diseases (4.3%; 95%CI: 1.2-8.1%); and injuries (8.7%; 95%CI: 6.0-11.8%). Average decadal tropical cyclone exposure in all impacted counties would be associated with an estimated 16,772 (95%CI: 8,265-25,278) additional hospitalizations. Our findings demonstrate the need for targeted preparedness strategies for hospital personnel before, during, and after tropical cyclones.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robbie M Parks
- The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
| | - G Brooke Anderson
- Department of Environmental & Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Rachel C Nethery
- Department of Biostatistics, T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ana Navas-Acien
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Francesca Dominici
- Department of Biostatistics, T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
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35
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Fan J, Meng J, Ludescher J, Chen X, Ashkenazy Y, Kurths J, Havlin S, Schellnhuber HJ. Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system. PHYSICS REPORTS 2021; 896:1-84. [PMID: 33041465 PMCID: PMC7532523 DOI: 10.1016/j.physrep.2020.09.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2020] [Accepted: 09/23/2020] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Global warming, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying socioeconomic disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, multiple interactions and complex structures of the Earth system, the understanding and, in particular, the prediction of such disruptive events represent formidable challenges to both scientific and policy communities. During the past years, the emergence and evolution of Earth system science has attracted much attention and produced new concepts and frameworks. Especially, novel statistical physics and complex networks-based techniques have been developed and implemented to substantially advance our knowledge of the Earth system, including climate extreme events, earthquakes and geological relief features, leading to substantially improved predictive performances. We present here a comprehensive review on the recent scientific progress in the development and application of how combined statistical physics and complex systems science approaches such as critical phenomena, network theory, percolation, tipping points analysis, and entropy can be applied to complex Earth systems. Notably, these integrating tools and approaches provide new insights and perspectives for understanding the dynamics of the Earth systems. The overall aim of this review is to offer readers the knowledge on how statistical physics concepts and theories can be useful in the field of Earth system science.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingfang Fan
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
- School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Jun Meng
- School of Science, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
| | - Josef Ludescher
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
| | - Xiaosong Chen
- School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Yosef Ashkenazy
- Department of Solar Energy and Environmental Physics, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion 84990, Israel
| | - Jürgen Kurths
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
- Department of Physics, Humboldt University, 10099 Berlin, Germany
- Lobachevsky University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhnij Novgorod 603950, Russia
| | - Shlomo Havlin
- Department of Physics, Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan 52900, Israel
| | - Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China
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36
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Projected Characteristic Changes of a Typical Tropical Cyclone under Climate Change in the South West Indian Ocean. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12020232] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
During 2 January 2014, Cyclone Bejisa passed near La Réunion in the southwestern Indian Ocean, bringing wind speeds of 41 m s−1, an ocean swell of 7 m, and rainfall accumulations of 1025 mm over 48 h. As a typical cyclone to impact La Réunion, we investigate how the characteristics of this cyclone could change in response to future warming via high-resolution, atmosphere–ocean coupled simulations of Bejisa-like cyclones in historical and future environments. Future environments are constructed using the pseudo global warming method whereby perturbations are added to historical analyses from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models. These models follow the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP8.5 emissions scenario and project ocean surface warming of 1.1–4.2 °C by 2100. Under these conditions, we find that future Bejisa-like cyclones are 6.5% more intense on average and reach their lifetime maximum intensity 2 degrees further poleward. Additionally, future cyclones produce heavier rainfall, with a 33.8% average increase in the median rainrate, and are 9.2% smaller, as measured by the radius of 17.5 m s−1 winds. Furthermore, when surface wind output is used to run an ocean wave model in post, we find a 4.6% increase in the significant wave height.
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37
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Affiliation(s)
- Suzana J Camargo
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
| | - Allison A Wing
- Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
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38
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Wang S, Toumi R. Recent migration of tropical cyclones toward coasts. Science 2021; 371:514-517. [PMID: 33510027 DOI: 10.1126/science.abb9038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2020] [Accepted: 11/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Poleward migrations of tropical cyclones have been observed globally, but their impact on coastal areas remains unclear. We investigated the change in global tropical cyclone activity in coastal regions over the period 1982-2018. We found that the distance of tropical cyclone maximum intensity to land has decreased by about 30 kilometers per decade, and that the annual frequency of global tropical cyclones increases with proximity to land by about two additional cyclones per decade. Trend analysis reveals a robust migration of tropical cyclone activity toward coasts, concurrent with poleward migration of cyclone locations as well as a statistically significant westward shift. This zonal shift of tropical cyclone tracks may be mainly driven by global zonal changes in environmental steering flow.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuai Wang
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BU, UK.
| | - Ralf Toumi
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BU, UK
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39
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Penney MS, Rawlings TA. An Examination of Shallow-Water Hydroids (Cnidaria, Hydrozoa, Hydroidolina) in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, Using Morphology and DNA Barcoding. Northeast Nat (Steuben) 2021. [DOI: 10.1656/045.028.m1801] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Matthew S.A. Penney
- Department of Biology, Cape Breton University, 1250 Grand Lake Road, Sydney, NS B1P 6L2, Canada
| | - Timothy A. Rawlings
- Department of Biology, Cape Breton University, 1250 Grand Lake Road, Sydney, NS B1P 6L2, Canada
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Li L, Chakraborty P. Slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world. Nature 2020; 587:230-234. [PMID: 33177666 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2867-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2020] [Accepted: 09/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
When a hurricane strikes land, the destruction of property and the environment and the loss of life are largely confined to a narrow coastal area. This is because hurricanes are fuelled by moisture from the ocean1-3, and so hurricane intensity decays rapidly after striking land4,5. In contrast to the effect of a warming climate on hurricane intensification, many aspects of which are fairly well understood6-10, little is known of its effect on hurricane decay. Here we analyse intensity data for North Atlantic landfalling hurricanes11 over the past 50 years and show that hurricane decay has slowed, and that the slowdown in the decay over time is in direct proportion to a contemporaneous rise in the sea surface temperature12. Thus, whereas in the late 1960s a typical hurricane lost about 75 per cent of its intensity in the first day past landfall, now the corresponding decay is only about 50 per cent. We also show, using computational simulations, that warmer sea surface temperatures induce a slower decay by increasing the stock of moisture that a hurricane carries as it hits land. This stored moisture constitutes a source of heat that is not considered in theoretical models of decay13-15. Additionally, we show that climate-modulated changes in hurricane tracks16,17 contribute to the increasingly slow decay. Our findings suggest that as the world continues to warm, the destructive power of hurricanes will extend progressively farther inland.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lin Li
- Fluid Mechanics Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Okinawa, Japan
| | - Pinaki Chakraborty
- Fluid Mechanics Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Okinawa, Japan.
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Dickie IA, Wakelin A, Richardson SJ. Rare species of wood-inhabiting fungi are not local. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2020; 30:e02156. [PMID: 32358821 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2156] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2019] [Revised: 03/09/2020] [Accepted: 03/18/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Wood-inhabiting fungal communities are a diverse and ecologically critical part of forest ecosystems, yet the spatial structure of fungal biodiversity in these ecosystems is largely unknown. Legislation allowed harvesting of deadwood from temperate rainforests on conservation lands in New Zealand following Cyclone Ita in 2014. Harvesting guidelines specified widely spread harvesting, on the assumption that rare fungal species may be highly spatially restricted, but were not based on quantitative assessment. We sampled fungi in and on logs of Dacrydium cupressinum (Podocarpaceae) a long-lived, common, canopy tree in lowland New Zealand forests. DNA was extracted from 81 logs varying in decay state across a 40 km long region of West Coast (South Island) forests, and sequenced using general fungal primers for metabarcoding to identify OTUs (operational taxonomic units). We examined three axes of rarity: occupancy, dominance when present, and niche breadth (as spatial extent and decay state specialization). Low-occupancy fungi were common, including a group of infrequently occurring but dominant when present fungi, the majority of which were Ascomycota. Despite this, there was an overall positive relationship between occupancy and dominance. Widespread, dominant fungi were most commonly Basidiomycota. Testing all fungal OTUs, there were no more fungi with maximum range sizes < 4 km than would be expected at random. Of the 351 low-occupancy OTUs found two to four times, only 12 had maximum range sizes < 900 m, and there was no more spatial restriction at scales < 900 m than would be expected by random chance, although there was some evidence of niche breadth restriction based on decay state similarity. The results show that fungal communities in deadwood are highly diverse, and include many rare taxa. Nonetheless, the lack of fungal OTUs with spatial restriction at scales < 900 m suggests that spatially dispersed timber harvesting will not mitigate risks of harvesting to rare fungal biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian A Dickie
- Bio-Protection Research Centre, School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Angela Wakelin
- Bio-Protection Research Centre, Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand
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Hurricane-induced power outage risk under climate change is primarily driven by the uncertainty in projections of future hurricane frequency. Sci Rep 2020; 10:15270. [PMID: 32943685 PMCID: PMC7499252 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-72207-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2020] [Accepted: 07/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Nine in ten major outages in the US have been caused by hurricanes. Long-term outage risk is a function of climate change-triggered shifts in hurricane frequency and intensity; yet projections of both remain highly uncertain. However, outage risk models do not account for the epistemic uncertainties in physics-based hurricane projections under climate change, largely due to the extreme computational complexity. Instead they use simple probabilistic assumptions to model such uncertainties. Here, we propose a transparent and efficient framework to, for the first time, bridge the physics-based hurricane projections and intricate outage risk models. We find that uncertainty in projections of the frequency of weaker storms explains over 95% of the uncertainty in outage projections; thus, reducing this uncertainty will greatly improve outage risk management. We also show that the expected annual fraction of affected customers exhibits large variances, warranting the adoption of robust resilience investment strategies and climate-informed regulatory frameworks.
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Ibanez T, Keppel G, Baider C, Birkinshaw C, Florens FBV, Laidlaw M, Menkes C, Parthasarathy N, Rajkumar M, Ratovoson F, Rasingam L, Reza L, Aiba S, Webb EL, Zang R, Birnbaum P. Tropical cyclones and island area shape species abundance distributions of local tree communities. OIKOS 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.07501] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Ibanez
- Inst. Agronomique néo‐Calédonien (IAC), Equipe Sol et Végétation (SolVeg) Nouméa New Caledonia
- AMAP, Univ. of Montpellier, and: CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, IRD Montpellier France
- Dept of Biology, Univ. of Hawai'i at Hilo Hawai'i USA
| | - Gunnar Keppel
- School of Natural and Built Environments and Future Industries Inst., Univ. of South Australia Adelaide SA Australia
- Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, Univ. of Goettingen Göttingen Germany
| | - Cláudia Baider
- The Mauritius Herbarium, Agricultural Services, Ministry of Agro‐Industry and Food Security Réduit Mauritius
| | - Chris Birkinshaw
- Missouri Botanical Garden – Programme Madagascar Antananarivo Madagascar
| | - F. B. Vincent Florens
- Tropical Island Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Pole of Research, Dept of Biosciences and Ocean Studies, Univ. of Mauritius Réduit Mauritius
| | - Melinda Laidlaw
- Queensland Herbarium, Dept of Environment and Science Toowong Australia
| | | | | | - Muthu Rajkumar
- Dept of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Pondicherry Univ. Puducherry India
- Tropical Forest Research Inst. Madhya Pradesh India
| | - Fidy Ratovoson
- Missouri Botanical Garden, Madagascar Research and Conservation Program Antananarivo Madagascar
| | - Ladan Rasingam
- Botanical Survey of India, Deccan Regional Center Telangana India
| | - Ludovic Reza
- Missouri Botanical Garden, Madagascar Research and Conservation Program Antananarivo Madagascar
| | - Shin‐ichiro Aiba
- Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Kagoshima Univ. Kagoshima Japan
| | - Edward L. Webb
- Dept of Biological Sciences, National Univ. of Singapore Singapore
| | - Runguo Zang
- Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Conservation, The State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Inst. of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry Beijing P. R. China
| | - Philippe Birnbaum
- Inst. Agronomique néo‐Calédonien (IAC), Equipe Sol et Végétation (SolVeg) Nouméa New Caledonia
- AMAP, Univ. of Montpellier, and: CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, IRD Montpellier France
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Torita H, Masaka K. Influence of planting density and thinning on timber productivity and resistance to wind damage in Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi) forests. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2020; 268:110298. [PMID: 32383659 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110298] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2019] [Revised: 02/06/2020] [Accepted: 02/17/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
In recent years, forest damage caused by typhoons has occurred frequently in Hokkaido, northern Japan. According to predictive reports, a typhoon's intensity increases and it then maintains its intensity as it moves north. The relationship between this prediction and forest damage is not clear, but the importance of dealing with forest damage is increasing. Therefore, to consider the countermeasures in forest management, we evaluated the influence of planting density and thinning on timber yield and resistance to wind damage in Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi), which is one of the main tree species used for afforestation in northern Japan. In this study, the following three management types were investigated: sparse (ST: relative yield index < 0.8), middle (MT: relative yield index < 0.9), and dense (DT: unthinned). To assess resistance to wind damage, the critical wind speed required to overturn and break the trunks of trees was calculated using a mechanistic model. Furthermore, timber volumes were estimated from a stand age of 10-50 years using the Yield Prediction System. The management type and planting density (1500-2500 trees ha-1) affected resistance to wind damage. Scenarios with ST and low planting density (1500 trees ha-1) showed a high resistance. In contrast, total timber volumes for scenarios varied from approximately 440 to 630 m3 depending on the site index (SI = 22, 25, and 28) at a stand age of 50 years. The merchantable log volume of the final cutting varied from approximately 210 to 470 m3 depending on the management type, planting density, and SI. There was a negative linear correlation between the log volume and resistance to wind damage. Therefore, it is important to balance both the decreased wind damage risk and higher timber yield or to prioritize them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiroyuki Torita
- Forestry Research Institute, Hokkaido Research Organization, Japan
| | - Kazuhiko Masaka
- Environmental Sciences for Sustainability, Iwate University, Japan.
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Puotinen M, Drost E, Lowe R, Depczynski M, Radford B, Heyward A, Gilmour J. Towards modelling the future risk of cyclone wave damage to the world's coral reefs. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:4302-4315. [PMID: 32459881 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2019] [Revised: 04/07/2020] [Accepted: 04/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that can damage coral reef communities. Recovery typically requires up to a decade, driving the trajectory of coral community structure. Coral reefs have evolved over millennia with cyclones. Increasingly, however, processes of recovery are interrupted and compromised by additional pressures (thermal stress, pollution, diseases, predators). Understanding how cyclones interact with other pressures to threaten coral reefs underpins spatial prioritization of conservation and management interventions. Models that simulate coral responses to cumulative pressures often assume that the worst cyclone wave damage occurs within ~100 km of the track. However, we show major coral loss at exposed sites up to 800 km from a cyclone that was both strong (high sustained wind speeds >=33 m/s) and big (widespread circulation >~300 km), using numerical wave models and field data from northwest Australia. We then calculate the return time of big and strong cyclones, big cyclones of any strength and strong cyclones of any size, for each of 150 coral reef ecoregions using a global data set of past cyclones from 1985 to 2015. For the coral ecoregions that regularly were exposed to cyclones during that time, we find that 75% of them were exposed to at least one cyclone that was both big and strong. Return intervals of big and strong cyclones are already less than 5 years for 13 ecoregions, primarily in the cyclone-prone NW Pacific, and less than 10 years for an additional 14 ecoregions. We identify ecoregions likely at higher risk in future given projected changes in cyclone activity. Robust quantification of the spatial distribution of likely cyclone wave damage is vital not only for understanding past coral response to pressures, but also for predicting how this may change as the climate continues to warm and the relative frequency of the strongest cyclones rises.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marji Puotinen
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Crawley, WA, Australia
- Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, Crawley, WA, Australia
| | - Edwin Drost
- Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, Crawley, WA, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia
| | - Ryan Lowe
- Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, Crawley, WA, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia
| | - Martial Depczynski
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Crawley, WA, Australia
- Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, Crawley, WA, Australia
| | - Ben Radford
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Crawley, WA, Australia
- Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, Crawley, WA, Australia
| | - Andrew Heyward
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Crawley, WA, Australia
- Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, Crawley, WA, Australia
| | - James Gilmour
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Crawley, WA, Australia
- Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, Crawley, WA, Australia
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Roberts MJ, Camp J, Seddon J, Vidale PL, Hodges K, Vannière B, Mecking J, Haarsma R, Bellucci A, Scoccimarro E, Caron L, Chauvin F, Terray L, Valcke S, Moine M, Putrasahan D, Roberts CD, Senan R, Zarzycki C, Ullrich P, Yamada Y, Mizuta R, Kodama C, Fu D, Zhang Q, Danabasoglu G, Rosenbloom N, Wang H, Wu L. Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2020; 47:e2020GL088662. [PMID: 32999514 PMCID: PMC7507130 DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088662] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2020] [Revised: 06/07/2020] [Accepted: 06/09/2020] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Pier Luigi Vidale
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)University of ReadingReadingUK
| | - Kevin Hodges
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)University of ReadingReadingUK
| | - Benoît Vannière
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)University of ReadingReadingUK
| | - Jenny Mecking
- Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre SouthamptonUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK
- Now at National Oceanography CentreSouthamptonUK
| | - Rein Haarsma
- Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)De BiltThe Netherlands
| | - Alessio Bellucci
- Fondazione Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)BolognaItaly
| | - Enrico Scoccimarro
- Fondazione Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)BolognaItaly
| | - Louis‐Philippe Caron
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center—Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC)BarcelonaSpain
| | - Fabrice Chauvin
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques—Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique (CNRM‐CERFACS)ToulouseFrance
| | - Laurent Terray
- CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRSToulouseFrance
| | - Sophie Valcke
- CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRSToulouseFrance
| | | | - Dian Putrasahan
- Max‐Planck‐Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften E.V. (MPI‐M)HamburgGermany
| | | | - Retish Senan
- European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)ReadingUK
| | - Colin Zarzycki
- Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric SciencePenn State UniversityState CollegePAUSA
| | - Paul Ullrich
- Department of Land, Air and Water ResourcesUniversity of California, DavisDavisCAUSA
| | | | - Ryo Mizuta
- Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)TsukubaJapan
| | | | - Dan Fu
- Department of OceanographyTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationTXUSA
- International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)College StationTXUSA
| | - Qiuying Zhang
- Department of OceanographyTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationTXUSA
- International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)College StationTXUSA
| | - Gokhan Danabasoglu
- International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)College StationTXUSA
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)BoulderCAUSA
| | - Nan Rosenbloom
- International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)College StationTXUSA
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)BoulderCAUSA
| | - Hong Wang
- International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)College StationTXUSA
- Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science (QNLM)QingdaoChina
| | - Lixin Wu
- International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)College StationTXUSA
- Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science (QNLM)QingdaoChina
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Mitigating the Twin Threats of Climate-Driven Atlantic Hurricanes and COVID-19 Transmission. Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2020; 14:494-503. [PMID: 32660664 PMCID: PMC7387761 DOI: 10.1017/dmp.2020.243] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
The co-occurrence of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic creates complex dilemmas for protecting populations from these intersecting threats. Climate change is likely contributing to stronger, wetter, slower-moving, and more dangerous hurricanes. Climate-driven hazards underscore the imperative for timely warning, evacuation, and sheltering of storm-threatened populations – proven life-saving protective measures that gather evacuees together inside durable, enclosed spaces when a hurricane approaches. Meanwhile, the rapid acquisition of scientific knowledge regarding how COVID-19 spreads has guided mass anti-contagion strategies, including lockdowns, sheltering at home, physical distancing, donning personal protective equipment, conscientious handwashing, and hygiene practices. These life-saving strategies, credited with preventing millions of COVID-19 cases, separate and move people apart. Enforcement coupled with fear of contracting COVID-19 have motivated high levels of adherence to these stringent regulations. How will populations react when warned to shelter from an oncoming Atlantic hurricane while COVID-19 is actively circulating in the community? Emergency managers, health care providers, and public health preparedness professionals must create viable solutions to confront these potential scenarios: elevated rates of hurricane-related injury and mortality among persons who refuse to evacuate due to fear of COVID-19, and the resurgence of COVID-19 cases among hurricane evacuees who shelter together.
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Abstract
The response of headland protected beaches to storm events is complex and strongly site dependent. In this study, we investigated the response of several headland protected beaches in Noosa, Australia to a tropical cyclone event. Pre and post topographical surveys of all beaches were completed using both pole-mounted RTK-GNSS and structure-from-motion (SfM)-derived elevation models from survey-grade drone imagery to assess sediment volume differentials. Coastal imaging was used to assess shoreline development and identify coastal features while a nearshore wave model (SWAN) was used to project waves into the study site from a regional wave buoy. Obliquely orientated swells drive currents along the headland with sediment being eroded from exposed sites and deposited at a protected site. Elevated sea-levels were shown to be a strong force-multiplier for relatively small significant wave heights, with 10,000 m3 of sediment eroded from a 700 m long beach in 36 h. The SWAN model was adequately calibrated for significant wave height, but refraction of swell around the headland was under-represented by an average of 16.48 degrees. This research has coastal management implications for beaches where development restricts natural shoreline retreat and elevated sea states are likely to become more common.
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Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:11975-11980. [PMID: 32424081 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1920849117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 83] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Theoretical understanding of the thermodynamic controls on tropical cyclone (TC) wind intensity, as well as numerical simulations, implies a positive trend in TC intensity in a warming world. The global instrumental record of TC intensity, however, is known to be heterogeneous in both space and time and is generally unsuitable for global trend analysis. To address this, a homogenized data record based on satellite data was previously created for the period 1982-2009. The 28-y homogenized record exhibited increasing global TC intensity trends, but they were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Based on observed trends in the thermodynamic mean state of the tropical environment during this period, however, it was argued that the 28-y period was likely close to, but shorter than, the time required for a statistically significant positive global TC intensity trend to appear. Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979-2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade.
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Spatial Variability of Beach Impact from Post-Tropical Cyclone Katia (2011) on Northern Ireland’s North Coast. WATER 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/w12051380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Abstract
In northern Europe, beach erosion, coastal flooding and associated damages to engineering structures are linked to mid-latitude storms that form through cyclogenesis and post-tropical cyclones, when a tropical cyclone moves north from its tropical origin. The present work analyses the hydrodynamic forcing and morphological changes observed at three beaches in the north coast of Northern Ireland (Magilligan, Portrush West’s southern and northern sectors, and Whiterocks), prior to, during, and immediately after post-tropical cyclone Katia. Katia was the second major hurricane of the active 2011 Atlantic hurricane season and impacted the British Isles on the 12–13 September 2011. During the Katia event, offshore wave buoys recorded values in excess of 5 m at the peak of the storm on the 13 September, but nearshore significant wave height ranged from 1 to 3 m, reflecting relevant wave energy dissipation across an extensive and shallow continental shelf. This was especially so at Magilligan, where widespread refraction and attenuation led to reduced shore-normal energy fluxes and very minor morphological changes. Morphological changes were restricted to upper beach erosion and flattening of the foreshore. Longshore transport was evident at Portrush West, with the northern sector experiencing erosion while the southern sector accreted, inducing a short-term rotational response in this embayment. In Whiterocks, berm erosion contributed to a general beach flattening and this resulted in an overall accretion due to sediment influx from the updrift western areas. Taking into account that the post-tropical cyclone Katia produced £100 m ($157 million, 2011 USD) in damage in the United Kingdom alone, the results of the present study represent a contribution to the general database of post-tropical storm response on Northern European coastlines, informing coastal response prediction and damage mitigation.
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