Measuring the shape of the biodiversity-disease relationship across systems reveals new findings and key gaps

Diversity inhibits foliar fungal diseases in grasslands: Potential mechanisms and temperature dependence

A long-standing debate exists among ecologists as to how diversity regulates infectious diseases (i.e., the nature of diversity-disease relationships); a dilution effect refers to when increasing host diversity inhibits infectious diseases (i.e., negative diversity-disease relationships). However, the generality, strength, and potential mechanisms underlying negative diversity-disease relationships in natural ecosystems remain unclear. To this end, we conducted a large-scale survey of 63 grassland sites across China to explore diversity-disease relationships. We found widespread negative diversity-disease relationships that were temperature-dependent; non-random diversity loss played a fundamental role in driving these patterns. Our study provides field evidence for the generality and temperature dependence of negative diversity-disease relationships in grasslands, becoming stronger in colder regions, while also highlighting the role of non-random diversity loss as a mechanism. These findings have important implications for community ecology, disease ecology, and epidemic control.

Bat species assemblage predicts coronavirus prevalence

Anthropogenic disturbances and the subsequent loss of biodiversity are altering species abundances and communities. Since species vary in their pathogen competence, spatio-temporal changes in host assemblages may lead to changes in disease dynamics. We explore how longitudinal changes in bat species assemblages affect the disease dynamics of coronaviruses (CoVs) in more than 2300 cave-dwelling bats captured over two years from five caves in Ghana. This reveals uneven CoV infection patterns between closely related species, with the alpha-CoV 229E-like and SARS-related beta-CoV 2b emerging as multi-host pathogens. Prevalence and infection likelihood for both phylogenetically distinct CoVs is influenced by the abundance of competent species and naïve subadults. Broadly, bat species vary in CoV competence, and highly competent species are more common in less diverse communities, leading to increased CoV prevalence in less diverse bat assemblages. In line with the One Health framework, our work supports the notion that biodiversity conservation may be the most proactive measure to prevent the spread of pathogens with zoonotic potential.

Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases

The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.

Biogeographic patterns and drivers of soil viromes

Viruses are crucial in shaping soil microbial functions and ecosystems. However, studies on soil viromes have been limited in both spatial scale and biome coverage. Here we present a comprehensive synthesis of soil virome biogeographic patterns using the Global Soil Virome dataset (GSV) wherein we analysed 1,824 soil metagenomes worldwide, uncovering 80,750 partial genomes of DNA viruses, 96.7% of which are taxonomically unassigned. The biogeography of soil viral diversity and community structure varies across different biomes. Interestingly, the diversity of viruses does not align with microbial diversity and contrasts with it by showing low diversity in forest and shrubland soils. Soil texture and moisture conditions are further corroborated as key factors affecting diversity by our predicted soil viral diversity atlas, revealing higher diversity in humid and subhumid regions. In addition, the binomial degree distribution pattern suggests a random co-occurrence pattern of soil viruses. These findings are essential for elucidating soil viral ecology and for the comprehensive incorporation of viruses into soil ecosystem models.

Non-linear effects of non-host diversity on the removal of free-living infective stages of parasites

Among the ecological functions and services of biodiversity is the potential buffering of diseases through dilution effects where increased biodiversity results in a reduction in disease risk for humans and wildlife hosts. Whether such effects are a universal phenomenon is still under intense debate and diversity effects are little studied in cases when non-host organisms remove free-living parasite stages during their transmission from one host to the next by consumption or physical obstruction. Here, we investigated non-host diversity effects on the removal of cercarial stages of trematodes, ubiquitous parasites in aquatic ecosystems. In laboratory experiments using response surface designs, varying both diversity and density at same time, we compared three combinations of two non-hosts at four density levels: predatory crabs that actively remove cercariae from the water column via their mouth parts and gills, filter feeding oysters that passively filter cercariae from the water column while not becoming infected themselves, and seaweed which physically obstructs cercariae. The addition of a second non-host did not generally result in increased parasite removal but neutralised, amplified or reduced the parasite removal exerted by the first non-host, depending on the density and non-host combination. These non-linear non-host diversity effects were probably driven by intra- and interspecific interactions and suggest the need to integrate non-host diversity effects in understanding the links between community diversity and infection risk.

Biodiversity differentially impacts disease dynamics across marine and terrestrial habitats

The relationship between biodiversity and infectious disease, where increased biodiversity leads to decreased disease risk, originated from research in terrestrial disease systems and remains relatively underexplored in marine systems. Understanding the impacts of biodiversity on disease in marine versus terrestrial systems is key to continued marine ecosystem functioning, sustainable aquaculture, and restoration projects. We compare the biodiversity-disease relationship across terrestrial and marine systems, considering biodiversity at six levels: intraspecific host diversity, host microbiomes, interspecific host diversity, biotic vectors and reservoirs, parasite consumers, and parasites. We highlight gaps in knowledge regarding how these six levels of biodiversity impact diseases in marine systems and propose two model systems, the Perkinsus-oyster and Labyrinthula-seagrass systems, to address these gaps.

Effect of epidemic diseases on wild animal conservation

Under the background of global species extinction, the impact of epidemic diseases on wild animal protection is increasingly prominent. Here, we review and synthesize the literature on this topic, and discuss the relationship between diseases and biodiversity. Diseases usually reduce species diversity by decreasing or extinction of species populations, but also accelerate species evolution and promote species diversity. At the same time, species diversity can regulate disease outbreaks through dilution or amplification effects. The synergistic effect of human activities and global change is emphasized, which further aggravates the complex relationship between biodiversity and diseases. Finally, we emphasize the importance of active surveillance of wild animal diseases, which can protect wild animals from potential diseases, maintain population size and genetic variation, and reduce the damage of diseases to the balance of the whole ecosystem and human health. Therefore, we suggest that a background survey of wild animal populations and their pathogens should be carried out to assess the impact of potential outbreaks on the population or species level. The mechanism of dilution and amplification effect between species diversity and diseases of wild animals should be further studied to provide a theoretical basis and technical support for human intervention measures to change biodiversity. Most importantly, we should closely combine the protection of wild animals with the establishment of an active surveillance, prevention, and control system for wild animal epidemics, in an effort to achieve a win-win situation between wild animal protection and disease control.

Malaria Risk Drivers in the Brazilian Amazon: Land Use-Land Cover Interactions and Biological Diversity

Malaria is a prevalent disease in several tropical and subtropical regions, including Brazil, where it remains a significant public health concern. Even though there have been substantial efforts to decrease the number of cases, the reoccurrence of epidemics in regions that have been free of cases for many years presents a significant challenge. Due to the multifaceted factors that influence the spread of malaria, influencing malaria risk factors were analyzed through regional outbreak cluster analysis and spatio-temporal models in the Brazilian Amazon, incorporating climate, land use/cover interactions, species richness, and number of endemic birds and amphibians. Results showed that high amphibian and bird richness and endemism correlated with a reduction in malaria risk. The presence of forest had a risk-increasing effect, but it depended on its juxtaposition with anthropic land uses. Biodiversity and landscape composition, rather than forest formation presence alone, modulated malaria risk in the period. Areas with low endemic species diversity and high human activity, predominantly anthropogenic landscapes, posed high malaria risk. This study underscores the importance of considering the broader ecological context in malaria control efforts.

Bird community effects on avian malaria infections

In community assembly processes, interspecific interactions play an important role in shaping community diversity, especially at the local scale. Changes in species richness or abundance can modify local infectious disease dynamics, either reducing or increasing the risk of transmission within the community. This study evaluates the effects of bird community on avian haemosporidians infections in a Neotropical region. Bird samples were collected from areas surrounding three dams, and molecular analysis were performed to identify blood-parasitic haemosporidia infecting the birds. Generalized linear models were used to analyze the relationships between the bird community and the prevalence, number of infections, and richness of avian haemosporidian lineages. Non-significant effects of bird community dominance and richness on the prevalence of avian parasites and the number of infections of Haemoproteus were found. However, there was evidence of an amplification effect. Host dominance was associated with the total number of infections, the number Plasmodium infections and the expected richness of Plasmodium lineages, while the expected richness of Haemoproteus lineages was associated with the richness of bird species. These findings highlight the role of host community dominance and richness in the dynamics of parasite infections, potentially influenced by the availability of competent hosts. This study contributes significantly to our understanding of blood parasite diversity in tropical birds within a relatively understudied region of South America.

Spatial scale-dependent dilution effects of biodiversity on plant diseases in grasslands

The rapid biodiversity losses of the Anthropocene have motivated ecologists to understand how biodiversity affects infectious diseases. Spatial scale is thought to moderate negative biodiversity-disease relationships (i.e., dilution effects) in zoonotic diseases, whereas evidence from plant communities for an effect of scale remains limited, especially at local scales where the mechanisms (e.g., encounter reduction) underlying dilution effects actually work. Here, we tested how spatial scale affects the direction and magnitude of biodiversity-disease relationships. We utilized a 10-year-old nitrogen addition experiment in a Tibetan alpine meadow, with 0, 5, 10, and 15 g/m² nitrogen addition treatments. Within the treatment plots, we arranged a total of 216 quadrats (of either 0.125 × 0.125 m, 0.25 × 0.25 m or 0.5 × 0.5 m size) to test how the sample area affects the relationship between plant species richness and foliar fungal disease severity. We found that the dilution effects were stronger in the 0.125 × 0.125 m and 0.25 × 0.25 m quadrats, compared with 0.5 × 0.5 m quadrats. There was a significant interaction between species richness and nitrogen addition in the 0.125 × 0.125 m and 0.25 × 0.25 m quadrats, indicating that a dilution effect was more easily observed under higher levels of nitrogen addition. Based on multigroup structural equation models, we found that even accounting for the direct impact of nitrogen addition (i.e., "nitrogen-disease hypothesis"), the dilution effect still worked at the 0.125 × 0.125 m scale. Overall, these findings suggest that spatial scale directly determines the occurrence of dilution effects, and can partly explain the observed variation in biodiversity-disease relationships in grasslands. Next-generation frameworks for predicting infectious diseases under rapid biodiversity loss scenarios need to incorporate spatial information.

Risk factors for Lyme disease: A scale-dependent effect of host species diversity and a consistent negative effect of host phylogenetic diversity

Biodiversity can influence disease risk. One example of a diversity-disease relationship is the dilution effect, which suggests higher host species diversity (often indexed by species richness) reduces disease risk. While numerous studies support the dilution effect, its generality remains controversial. Most studies of diversity-disease relationships have overlooked the potential importance of phylogenetic diversity. Furthermore, most studies have tested diversity-disease relationships at one spatial scale, even though such relationships are likely scale dependent. Using Lyme disease as a model system, we investigated the effects of host species richness and phylogenetic relatedness on the number of reported Lyme disease cases in humans in the U.S.A. at two spatial scales (the county level and the state level) using piecewise structural equation modelling. We also accounted for relevant climatic and habitat-related factors and tested their correlations with the number of Lyme disease cases. We found that species assemblages with more related species (i.e., host species in the order Rodentia) were associated with more Lyme disease cases in humans. Host species richness correlated negatively with the number of Lyme disease cases at the state level (i.e., a dilution effect), a pattern that might be explained by the higher number of reservoir-incompetent species at high levels of species richness at this larger spatial scale. In contrast, a positive correlation was found between species richness and the number of Lyme disease cases at the county level, where a higher proportion of rodent species was associated with higher levels of species richness, potentially amplifying the disease risk. Our results highlight that analyse at a single spatial scale can miss some impacts of biodiversity on human health. Thus, multi-scale analyses with consideration of host phylogenetic diversity are critical for improving our understanding of diversity-disease relationships.

Host diversity positively affects the temporal stability of foliar fungal diseases in a Tibetan alpine meadow

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Plant disease can dramatically affect population dynamics, community composition and ecosystem functions. However, most empirical studies focus on diseases at a certain time point and largely ignore their temporal stability, which directly affects our ability to predict when and where disease outbreaks will occur.

METHODS

Using a removal experiment that manipulates plant diversity (i.e. a plant biodiversity and ecosystem function experiment) and a fertilization experiment in a Tibetan alpine meadow, we investigated how different plant biodiversity indices and nitrogen fertilization affect the temporal stability of foliar fungal diseases (measured as the mean value of community pathogen load divided by its standard deviation) over seven consecutive years.

KEY RESULTS

We found that the temporal stability of foliar fungal diseases increased with plant diversity indices in the plant biodiversity and ecosystem function experiment. Meanwhile, we observed a weakly positive relationship between host diversity and temporal stability in the fertilization experiment. However, the nitrogen treatment did not affect temporal stability, given that fertilization increased both the mean and standard deviation of pathogen load by roughly the same magnitude.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that host diversity regulates the temporal stability of pathogen load, but we note that this effect may be attenuated under rapid biodiversity loss in the Anthropocene.

Plant community-mediated effects of grazing on plant diseases

Grazing is one of the most important management practices for grasslands. To date, most studies on how grazing affects plant diseases have focused on a single plant species, ignoring plant community characteristics and phylogeny. We used data from a 6-year yak grazing experiment (0, 1, 2, and 3 yak(s) ha^- 1 treatment) in an alpine meadow ecosystem of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, from which we tested grazing effects on foliar fungal diseases at both population and community levels. By measuring plant community variables (including richness, evenness, phylogenetic diversity, and composition) and disease severity, we evaluated the relative importance of plant community-mediated effects of yak grazing on community pathogen load with a multi-model inference approach. We found significant differences in pathogen load among different grazing treatments; we recorded the highest and lowest pathogen loads in the 1 yak ha^- 1 treatment and in the 3 yaks ha^- 1 treatment, respectively. Pielou's evenness index and community proneness (i.e., an estimate of the capacity of plant communities to support diseases) best explained variation in pathogen load, indicating that plant community-mediated effects (through evenness and proneness) of yak grazing determined pathogen load. Our study provides empirical evidence that grazing influences foliar fungal disease prevalence through plant community evenness and composition, which demonstrates the necessity of incorporating host plant community characteristics into disease load prediction frameworks.

Biodiversity and disease risk in an algal biofuel system: An experimental test in outdoor ponds using a before-after-control-impact (BACI) design

For outdoor cultivation of algal feedstocks to become a commercially viable and sustainable option for biofuel production, algal cultivation must maintain high yields and temporal stability in environmentally variable outdoor ponds. One of the main challenges is mitigating disease outbreaks that leads to culture crashes. Drawing on predictions from the ‘dilution effect’ hypothesis, in which increased biodiversity is thought to reduce disease risk in a community, a teste of whether algal polycultures would reduce disease risk and improve feedstock production efficiencies compared to monocultures was performed. While the positive benefits of biodiversity on disease risk have been demonstrated in various systems, to the best of our knowledge this is the first test in an algal biofuel system. Here, the results a before-after-control-impact (BACI) experimental design to compare mean monoculture (control) and polyculture (impact) yield, stability, and productivity before and after fungal infection when grown in 400-L outdoor raceway ponds are presented. It has been found that polycultures did not experience a reduction in disease risk compared to monocultures or differ in production efficiencies throughout the course of the 43-day experiment. These results show that polyculture feedstocks can maintain similar levels of productivity, stability, and disease resistance to that of a monoculture. Determining whether these results are generalizable or represent one case study requires additional outdoor experiments using a larger variety of host and pathogen species.

Biological invasions facilitate zoonotic disease emergences

Outbreaks of zoonotic diseases are accelerating at an unprecedented rate in the current era of globalization, with substantial impacts on the global economy, public health, and sustainability. Alien species invasions have been hypothesized to be important to zoonotic diseases by introducing both existing and novel pathogens to invaded ranges. However, few studies have evaluated the generality of alien species facilitating zoonoses across multiple host and parasite taxa worldwide. Here, we simultaneously quantify the role of 795 established alien hosts on the 10,473 zoonosis events across the globe since the 14^th century. We observe an average of ~5.9 zoonoses per alien zoonotic host. After accounting for species-, disease-, and geographic-level sampling biases, spatial autocorrelation, and the lack of independence of zoonosis events, we find that the number of zoonosis events increase with the richness of alien zoonotic hosts, both across space and through time. We also detect positive associations between the number of zoonosis events per unit space and climate change, land-use change, biodiversity loss, human population density, and PubMed citations. These findings suggest that alien host introductions have likely contributed to zoonosis emergences throughout recent history and that minimizing future zoonotic host species introductions could have global health benefits.

Alien species invasions are thought to be important to zoonotic diseases through the introduction of both existing and novel pathogens to invaded ranges. Using data from 795 established alien animals and 10,473 zoonosis events worldwide, this study examines the role of alien zoonotic hosts on zoonosis emergences after accounting for climate, propagule pressure, global change and sampling bias.

Ranavirus Amplification in Low-Diversity Amphibian Communities

In an era where emerging infectious diseases are a serious threat to biodiversity, epidemiological patterns need to be identified, particularly the complex mechanisms driving the dynamics of multi-host pathogens in natural communities. Many amphibian species have faced unprecedented population declines associated with diseases. Yet, specific processes shaping host-pathogen relationships within and among communities for amphibian pathogens such as ranaviruses (RV) remain poorly understood. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive study of RV in low-diversity amphibian communities in north-western Canada to assess the effects of biotic factors (species identity, species richness, abundance) and abiotic factors (conductivity, pH) on the pathogen prevalence and viral loads. Across 2 years and 18 sites, with communities of up to three hosts (wood frog, Rana sylvatica; boreal chorus frog, Pseudacris maculata; Canadian toad, Anaxyrus hemiophrys), we observed that RV prevalence nearly doubled with each additional species in a community, suggesting an amplification effect in aquatic, as well as terrestrial life-history stages. Infection intensity among infected wood frogs and boreal chorus frogs also significantly increased with an increase in species richness. Interestingly, we did not observe any effects of host abundance or abiotic factors, highlighting the importance of including host identity and species richness when investigating multi-host pathogens. Ultimately, only such a comprehensive approach can improve our understanding of complex and often highly context-dependent host-pathogen interactions.

Genetic diversity and disease: The past, present, and future of an old idea

Why do infectious diseases erupt in some host populations and not others? This question has spawned independent fields of research in evolution, ecology, public health, agriculture, and conservation. In the search for environmental and genetic factors that predict variation in parasitism, one hypothesis stands out for its generality and longevity: genetically homogeneous host populations are more likely to experience severe parasitism than genetically diverse populations. In this perspective piece, I draw on overlapping ideas from evolutionary biology, agriculture, and conservation to capture the far-reaching implications of the link between genetic diversity and disease. I first summarize the development of this hypothesis and the results of experimental tests. Given the convincing support for the protective effect of genetic diversity, I then address the following questions: (1) Where has this idea been put to use, in a basic and applied sense, and how can we better use genetic diversity to limit disease spread? (2) What new hypotheses does the established disease-diversity relationship compel us to test? I conclude that monitoring, preserving, and augmenting genetic diversity is one of our most promising evolutionarily informed strategies for buffering wild, domesticated, and human populations against future outbreaks.

Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change

After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (Yersinia pestis) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long-term trends (signal) and interannual variation in both weather and sampling (noise). We find that plague foci are associated with high-elevation rodent communities, and soil biochemistry may play a key role in the geography of long-term persistence. In addition, we find that human cases are concentrated only in a small subset of endemic areas, and that spillover events are driven by higher rodent species richness (the amplification hypothesis) and climatic anomalies (the trophic cascade hypothesis). Using our detection model, we find that due to the changing climate, rodent communities at high elevations have become more conducive to the establishment of plague reservoirs-with suitability increasing up to 40% in some places-and that spillover risk to humans at mid-elevations has increased as well, although more gradually. These results highlight opportunities for deeper investigation of plague ecology, the value of integrative surveillance for infectious disease geography, and the need for further research into ongoing climate change impacts.

Biodiversity and vector-borne diseases: host dilution and vector amplification occur simultaneously for Amazonian leishmaniases

Changes in biodiversity may impact infectious disease transmission through multiple mechanisms. We explored the impact of biodiversity changes on the transmission of Amazonian leishmaniases, a group of wild zoonoses transmitted by phlebotomine sand flies (Psychodidae), which represent an important health burden in a region where biodiversity is both rich and threatened. Using molecular analyses of sand fly pools and blood-fed dipterans, we characterized the disease system in forest sites in French Guiana undergoing different levels of human-induced disturbance. We show that the prevalence of Leishmania parasites in sand flies correlates positively with the relative abundance of mammal species known as Leishmania reservoirs. In addition, Leishmania reservoirs tend to dominate in less diverse mammal communities, in accordance with the dilution effect hypothesis. This results in a negative relationship between Leishmania prevalence and mammal diversity. On the other hand, higher mammal diversity is associated with higher sand fly density, possibly because more diverse mammal communities harbor higher biomass and more abundant feeding resources for sand flies, although more research is needed to identify the factors that shape sand fly communities. As a consequence of these antagonistic effects, decreased mammal diversity comes with an increase of parasite prevalence in sand flies, but has no detectable impact on the density of infected sand flies. These results represent additional evidence that biodiversity changes may simultaneously dilute and amplify vector-borne disease transmission through different mechanisms that need to be better understood before drawing generalities on the biodiversity-disease relationship.

Phanerozoic parasitism and marine metazoan diversity: dilution versus amplification

Growing evidence suggests that biodiversity mediates parasite prevalence. We have compiled the first global database on occurrences and prevalence of marine parasitism throughout the Phanerozoic and assess the relationship with biodiversity to test if there is support for amplification or dilution of parasitism at the macroevolutionary scale. Median prevalence values by era are 5% for the Paleozoic, 4% for the Mesozoic, and a significant increase to 10% for the Cenozoic. We calculated period-level shareholder quorum sub-sampled (SQS) estimates of mean sampled diversity, three-timer (3T) origination rates, and 3T extinction rates for the most abundant host clades in the Paleobiology Database to compare to both occurrences of parasitism and the more informative parasite prevalence values. Generalized linear models (GLMs) of parasite occurrences and SQS diversity measures support both the amplification (all taxa pooled, crinoids and blastoids, and molluscs) and dilution hypotheses (arthropods, cnidarians, and bivalves). GLMs of prevalence and SQS diversity measures support the amplification hypothesis (all taxa pooled and molluscs). Though likely scale-dependent, parasitism has increased through the Phanerozoic and clear patterns primarily support the amplification of parasitism with biodiversity in the history of life.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’.

Infection dynamics in ecosystems: on the interaction between red and grey squirrels, pox virus, pine martens and trees

Ecological and epidemiological processes and interactions influence each other, positively and negatively, directly and indirectly. The invasion potential of pathogens is influenced by the ecosystem context of their host species' populations. This extends to the capacity of (multiple) host species to maintain their (common) pathogen and the way pathogen dynamics are influenced by changes in ecosystem composition. This paper exemplifies these interactions and consequences in a study of red and grey squirrel dynamics in the UK. Differences and changes in background habitat and trophic levels above and below the squirrel species lead to different dynamic behaviour in many subtle ways. The range of outcomes of the different interactions shows that one has to be careful when drawing conclusions about the mechanisms and processes involved in explaining observed phenomena concerning pathogens in their natural environment. The dynamic behaviour also shows that planning interventions, for example for conservation purposes, benefits from understanding the complexity of interactions beyond the particular pathogen and its threatened host species.

Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk

As a source of emerging infectious diseases, wildlife assemblages (and related spatial patterns) must be quantitatively assessed to help identify high-risk locations. Previous assessments have largely focussed on the distributions of individual species; however, transmission dynamics are expected to depend on assemblage composition. Moreover, disease-diversity relationships have mainly been studied in the context of species loss, but assemblage composition and disease risk (e.g. infection prevalence in wildlife assemblages) can change without extinction. Based on the predicted distributions and abundances of 4466 mammal species, we estimated global patterns of disease risk through the calculation of the community-level basic reproductive ratio R0, an index of invasion potential, persistence, and maximum prevalence of a pathogen in a wildlife assemblage. For density-dependent diseases, we found that, in addition to tropical areas which are commonly viewed as infectious disease hotspots, northern temperate latitudes included high-risk areas. We also forecasted the effects of climate change and habitat loss from 2015 to 2035. Over this period, many local assemblages showed no net loss of species richness, but the assemblage composition (i.e. the mix of species and their abundances) changed considerably. Simultaneously, most areas experienced a decreased risk of density-dependent diseases but an increased risk of frequency-dependent diseases. We further explored the factors driving these changes in disease risk. Our results suggest that biodiversity and changes therein jointly influence disease risk. Understanding these changes and their drivers and ultimately identifying emerging infectious disease hotspots can help health officials prioritize resource distribution.

Community-level prevalence of a forest pathogen, not individual-level disease risk, declines with tree diversity

Understanding why diversity sometimes limits disease is essential for managing outbreaks; however, mechanisms underlying this 'dilution effect' remain poorly understood. Negative diversity-disease relationships have previously been detected in plant communities impacted by an emerging forest disease, sudden oak death. We used this focal system to empirically evaluate whether these relationships were driven by dilution mechanisms that reduce transmission risk for individuals or from the fact that disease was averaged across the host community. We integrated laboratory competence measurements with plant community and symptom data from a large forest monitoring network. Richness increased disease risk for bay laurel trees, dismissing possible dilution mechanisms. Nonetheless, richness was negatively associated with community-level disease prevalence because the disease was aggregated among hosts that vary in disease susceptibility. Aggregating observations (which is surprisingly common in other dilution effect studies) can lead to misinterpretations of dilution mechanisms and bias towards a negative diversity-disease relationship.

Dilution effects in disease ecology

For decades, people have reduced the transmission of pathogens by adding low‐quality hosts to managed environments like agricultural fields. More recently, there has been interest in whether similar ‘dilution effects’ occur in natural disease systems, and whether these effects are eroded as diversity declines. For some pathogens of plants, humans and other animals, the highest‐quality hosts persist when diversity is lost, so that high‐quality hosts dominate low‐diversity communities, resulting in greater pathogen transmission. Meta‐analyses reveal that these natural dilution effects are common. However, studying them remains challenging due to limitations on the ability of researchers to manipulate many disease systems experimentally, difficulties of acquiring data on host quality and confusion about what should and should not be considered a dilution effect. Because dilution effects are widely used in managed disease systems and have been documented in a variety of natural disease systems, their existence should not be considered controversial. Important questions remain about how frequently they occur and under what conditions to expect them. There is also ongoing confusion about their relationships to both pathogen spillover and general biogeographical correlations between diversity and disease, which has resulted in an inconsistent and confusing literature. Progress will require rigorous and creative research.

Nonhost species reduce parasite infection in a focal host species within experimental fish communities

The dilution effect describes the negative association between host biodiversity and the risk of infectious disease. Tests designed to understand the relative roles of host species richness, host species identity, and rates of exposure within experimental host communities would help resolve ongoing contention regarding the importance and generality of dilution effects. We exposed fathead minnows to infective larvae of the trematode, Ornithodiplostomum ptychocheilus in minnow-only containers and in mixed containers that held 1-3 other species of fish. Parasite infection was estimated as the number of encysted worms (i.e., brainworms) present in minnows following exposure. The results of exposure trials showed that nonminnow fish species were incompatible with O. ptychocheilus larvae. There was no reduction in mean brainworm counts in minnows in mixed containers with brook sticklebacks or longnose dace. In contrast, brainworm counts in minnows declined by 51% and 27% in mesocosms and aquaria, respectively, when they co-occurred with emerald shiners. Dilution within minnow + shiner containers may arise from shiner-induced alterations in minnow or parasite behaviors that reduced encounter rates between minnows and parasite larvae. Alternatively, shiners may act as parasite sinks for parasite larvae. These results highlight the role of host species identity in the dilution effect. Our results also emphasize the complex and idiosyncratic effects of host community composition on rates of parasite infection within contemporary host communities that contain combinations of introduced and native species.

Functional rarity and evenness are key facets of biodiversity to boost multifunctionality

The functional traits of organisms within multispecies assemblages regulate biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning. Yet how traits should assemble to boost multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously (multifunctionality) remains poorly explored. In a multibiome litter experiment covering most of the global variation in leaf trait spectra, we showed that three dimensions of functional diversity (dispersion, rarity, and evenness) explained up to 66% of variations in multifunctionality, although the dominant species and their traits remained an important predictor. While high dispersion impeded multifunctionality, increasing the evenness among functionally dissimilar species was a key dimension to promote higher multifunctionality and to reduce the abundance of plant pathogens. Because too-dissimilar species could have negative effects on ecosystems, our results highlight the need for not only diverse but also functionally even assemblages to promote multifunctionality. The effect of functionally rare species strongly shifted from positive to negative depending on their trait differences with the dominant species. Simultaneously managing the dispersion, evenness, and rarity in multispecies assemblages could be used to design assemblages aimed at maximizing multifunctionality independently of the biome, the identity of dominant species, or the range of trait values considered. Functional evenness and rarity offer promise to improve the management of terrestrial ecosystems and to limit plant disease risks.

The dilution effect behind the scenes: testing the underlying assumptions of its mechanisms through quantifying the long-term dynamics and effects of a pathogen in multiple host species

Disentangling the mechanisms that mediate the relationships between species diversity and disease risk has both theoretical and applied implications. We employed a model system of rodents and their Mycoplasma pathogens, in which an extreme negative diversity-disease relationship was demonstrated, to test the assumptions underlying three mechanisms that may explain this field pattern. Through quantifying the long-term dynamics and effects of the pathogen in its three host species, we estimated the between-host differences in pathogen spreading and transmission potentials, and host recovery potential and vulnerability to infection. The results suggest that one of the hosts is a pathogen amplifier and the other two hosts function as diluters. Considering the similarity in infection success and intensity among hosts, and the failure to detect any pathogen-induced damage, we could not validate the assumption underlying the hypotheses that diluters reduce the overall transmission or increase the mortality of infected hosts in the system. Instead, the results demonstrate that diluters clear the infection faster than amplifiers, supporting the possibility that the addition of diluters to the community may reduce the overall number of infected hosts through this mechanism. This study highlights the contribution of experimental studies that simultaneously explore different aspects of host-pathogen interactions in multiple hosts, in diversity-disease research.

Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales

Analyses of transient dynamics are critical to understanding infectious disease transmission and persistence. Identifying and predicting transients across scales, from within-host to community-level patterns, plays an important role in combating ongoing epidemics and mitigating the risk of future outbreaks. Moreover, greater emphases on non-asymptotic processes will enable timely evaluations of wildlife and human diseases and lead to improved surveillance efforts, preventive responses, and intervention strategies. Here, we explore the contributions of transient analyses in recent models spanning the fields of epidemiology, movement ecology, and parasitology. In addition to their roles in predicting epidemic patterns and endemic outbreaks, we explore transients in the contexts of pathogen transmission, resistance, and avoidance at various scales of the ecological hierarchy. Examples illustrate how (i) transient movement dynamics at the individual host level can modify opportunities for transmission events over time; (ii) within-host energetic processes often lead to transient dynamics in immunity, pathogen load, and transmission potential; (iii) transient connectivity between discrete populations in response to environmental factors and outbreak dynamics can affect disease spread across spatial networks; and (iv) increasing species richness in a community can provide transient protection to individuals against infection. Ultimately, we suggest that transient analyses offer deeper insights and raise new, interdisciplinary questions for disease research, consequently broadening the applications of dynamical models for outbreak preparedness and management.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w.

The effect of host community functional traits on plant disease risk varies along an elevational gradient

Quantifying the relative impact of environmental conditions and host community structure on disease is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century, as both climate and biodiversity are changing at unprecedented rates. Both increasing temperature and shifting host communities toward more fast-paced life-history strategies are predicted to increase disease, yet their independent and interactive effects on disease in natural communities remain unknown. Here, we address this challenge by surveying foliar disease symptoms in 220, 0.5 m-diameter herbaceous plant communities along a 1100-m elevational gradient. We find that increasing temperature associated with lower elevation can increase disease by (1) relaxing constraints on parasite growth and reproduction, (2) determining which host species are present in a given location, and (3) strengthening the positive effect of host community pace-of-life on disease. These results provide the first field evidence, under natural conditions, that environmental gradients can alter how host community structure affects disease.

Climate change is causing shifts in the ecology and biodiversity of different world regions at unprecedented rates. Global warming is also linked with changes in the risk for certain infectious diseases in humans, but also in animals and plants. There are several possible mechanisms for this. For one thing, changing weather patterns may affect how pathogens grow and reproduce. For another, the distribution ranges of animal and plant hosts of certain disease-causing pathogens are changing because of global warming. This means that the distributions of pathogens are also changing, and so is the severity of the diseases that they cause.

Increasing temperatures may also influence the physiological traits that make host species suitable for pathogens. This is because the traits that allow species to survive or adapt to changes in their environment may also make them better at hosting and transmitting the pathogens that cause disease. For example, in plant communities, rising temperatures could favor species with faster growth rates, quicker reproduction and high dispersal, and these traits are often associated with more efficient spread of disease.

Despite a lot of research into the effects of climate, it remains unclear how temperature, pathogen growth and reproduction, and host species’ traits and distributions combine and interact to alter infectious disease risk, especially in wild plant communities. To investigate this, Halliday, Jalo and Laine studied an area in southeast Switzerland where natural temperature and biodiversity change gradually through the region. The aim was to explore how relationships between plant biodiversity, pathogens and disease risk change with temperature, and to understand whether environmental or biological factors influence infectious disease risk more.

Halliday, Jalo and Laine measured the levels of fungal diseases found in the leaves of plant communities spanning 1,100 meters of elevation, showing that higher temperatures increase disease risk both directly and indirectly. Directly, higher temperatures increased pathogen growth and reproduction, and indirectly, they influenced which plants were present and therefore able to act as disease hosts. The results also indicated that temperature can affect how the traits of plants drive the transmission rates of fungal pathogens. Important predictors of disease risk were traits relating to the growth rate of host plants, which tended to increase in areas with low elevation where the surface of the soil was warm.

This study represents the first analysis, in wild plants, of how changing temperatures, the traits of shifting host species, and resident parasite populations interact to impact infectious disease risk. The insights Halliday, Jalo and Laine provided could aid in predicting how global climate change will influence infectious disease risk.

Amphibian chytrid infections along the highest elevational gradient of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Environmental variation along elevational gradients shapes conditions for pathogen development, which influences disease outcomes. Chytridiomycosis is a non-vectored disease caused by the aquatic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and is responsible for massive declines of amphibian populations all over the world. Several biotic and abiotic factors are known to influence Bd infection dynamics in amphibians, including temperature and host species richness. Here, we quantified Bd prevalence and load along an elevational gradient in the Caparaó National Park (CNP), Brazil, and tested for associations of Bd infections with elevation, temperature, and species richness. We hypothesized that Bd infections would increase as local species richness decreased with elevation. We detected Bd along the entire elevational gradient and found a negative association between infection load and elevation. We did not detect significant associations between infection prevalence and elevation. Our findings are consistent with other wide elevational gradient studies, but are contrary to 2 other studies performed in the Atlantic Forest. We did not find the minimum elevational range that should be sampled to detect the influence of elevation on Bd variation. Our study represents the widest elevational gradient that has been sampled in Brazil and contributes to a better understanding of Bd distribution and dynamics in natural systems.

Narrow and Brittle or Broad and Nimble? Comparing Adaptive Capacity in Simplifying and Diversifying Farming Systems

Humanity faces a triple threat of climate change, biodiversity loss, and global food insecurity. In response, increasing the general adaptive capacity of farming systems is essential. We identify two divergent strategies for building adaptive capacity.Simplifyingprocesses seek to narrowly maximize production by shifting the basis of agricultural production toward centralized control of socially and ecologically homogenized systems.Diversifyingprocesses cultivate social-ecological complexity in order to provide multiple ecosystem services, maintain management flexibility, and promote coordinated adaptation across levels. Through five primarily United States focused cases of distinct agricultural challenges—foodborne pathogens, drought, marginal lands, labor availability, and land access and tenure—we compare simplifying and diversifying responses to assess how these pathways differentially enhance or degrade the adaptive capacity of farming systems in the context of the triple threat. These cases show that diversifying processes can weave a form of broad and nimble adaptive capacity that is fundamentally distinct from the narrow and brittle adaptive capacity produced through simplification. We find that while there are structural limitations and tradeoffs to diversifying processes, adaptive capacity can be facilitated by empowering people and enhancing ecosystem functionality to proactively distribute resources and knowledge where needed and to nimbly respond to changing circumstances. Our cases suggest that, in order to garner the most adaptive benefits from diversification, farming systems should balance the pursuit of multiple goals, which in turn requires an inclusive process for active dialogue and negotiation among diverse perspectives. Instead of locking farming systems into pernicious cycles that reproduce social and ecological externalities, diversification processes can enable nimble responses to a broad spectrum of possible stressors and shocks, while also promoting social equity and ecological sustainability.

Eutrophication, biodiversity loss, and species invasions modify the relationship between host and parasite richness during host community assembly

Host and parasite richness are generally positively correlated, but the stability of this relationship in response to global change remains poorly understood. Rapidly changing biotic and abiotic conditions can alter host community assembly, which in turn, can alter parasite transmission. Consequently, if the relationship between host and parasite richness is sensitive to parasite transmission, then changes in host composition under various global change scenarios could strengthen or weaken the relationship between host and parasite richness. To test the hypothesis that host community assembly can alter the relationship between host and parasite richness in response to global change, we experimentally crossed host diversity (biodiversity loss) and resource supply to hosts (eutrophication), then allowed communities to assemble. As previously shown, initial host diversity and resource supply determined the trajectory of host community assembly, altering post-assembly host species richness, richness-independent host phylogenetic diversity, and colonization by exotic host species. Overall, host richness predicted parasite richness, and as predicted, this effect was moderated by exotic abundance-communities dominated by exotic species exhibited a stronger positive relationship between post-assembly host and parasite richness. Ultimately, these results suggest that, by modulating parasite transmission, community assembly can modify the relationship between host and parasite richness. These results thus provide a novel mechanism to explain how global environmental change can generate contingencies in a fundamental ecological relationship-the positive relationship between host and parasite richness.

Disease in Invasive Plant Populations

Non-native invasive plants can establish in natural areas, where they can be ecologically damaging and costly to manage. Like cultivated plants, invasive plants can experience a relatively disease-free period upon introduction and accumulate pathogens over time. Diseases of invasive plant populations are infrequently studied compared to diseases of agriculture, forestry, and even native plant populations. We evaluated similarities and differences in the processes that are likely to affect pathogen accumulation and disease in invasive plants compared to cultivated plants, which are the dominant focus of the field of plant pathology. Invasive plants experience more genetic, biotic, and abiotic variation across space and over time than cultivated plants, which is expected to stabilize the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of interactions with pathogens and possibly weaken the efficacy of infectious disease in their control. Although disease is expected to be context dependent, the widespread distribution of invasive plants makes them important pathogen reservoirs. Research on invasive plant diseases can both protect crops and help manage invasive plant populations.

Biodiversity loss underlies the dilution effect of biodiversity

The dilution effect predicts increasing biodiversity to reduce the risk of infection, but the generality of this effect remains unresolved. Because biodiversity loss generates predictable changes in host community competence, we hypothesised that biodiversity loss might drive the dilution effect. We tested this hypothesis by reanalysing four previously published meta‐analyses that came to contradictory conclusions regarding generality of the dilution effect. In the context of biodiversity loss, our analyses revealed a unifying pattern: dilution effects were inconsistently observed for natural biodiversity gradients, but were commonly observed for biodiversity gradients generated by disturbances causing losses of biodiversity. Incorporating biodiversity loss into tests of generality of the dilution effect further indicated that scale‐dependency may strengthen the dilution effect only when biodiversity gradients are driven by biodiversity loss. Together, these results help to resolve one of the most contentious issues in disease ecology: the generality of the dilution effect.

Towards a mechanistic understanding of competence: a missing link in diversity-disease research

Biodiversity loss may increase the risk of infectious disease in a phenomenon known as the dilution effect. Circumstances that increase the likelihood of disease dilution are: (i) when hosts vary in their competence, and (ii) when communities disassemble predictably, such that the least competent hosts are the most likely to go extinct. Despite the central role of competence in diversity-disease theory, we lack a clear understanding of the factors underlying competence, as well as the drivers and extent of its variation. Our perspective piece encourages a mechanistic understanding of competence and a deeper consideration of its role in diversity-disease relationships. We outline current evidence, emerging questions and future directions regarding the basis of competence, its definition and measurement, the roots of its variation and its role in the community ecology of infectious disease.

Pulse Heat Stress and Parasitism in a Warming World

Infectious disease outbreaks emerged across the globe during the recent 2015-2016 El Niño event, re-igniting research interest in how climate events influence disease dynamics. While the relationship between long-term warming and the transmission of disease-causing parasites has received substantial attention, we do not yet know how pulse heat events - common phenomena in a warming world - will alter parasite transmission. The effects of pulse warming on ecological and evolutionary processes are complex and context dependent, motivating research to understand how climate oscillations drive host health and disease. Here, we develop a framework for evaluating and predicting the effects of pulse warming on parasitic infection. Specifically, we synthesize how pulse heat stress affects hosts, parasites, and the ecological interactions between them.

Ecological Fallacy and Aggregated Data: A Case Study of Fried Chicken Restaurants, Obesity and Lyme Disease

Interdisciplinary approaches are merited when attempting to understand the complex and idiosyncratic processes driving the spillover of pathogens from wildlife and vector species to human populations. Public health data are often available for zoonotic pathogens but can lead to erroneous conclusions if the data have been spatially or temporally aggregated. As an illustration, we use human Lyme disease incidence data as a case study to examine correlations between mammalian biodiversity, fried chicken restaurants and obesity rates on human disease incidence. We demonstrate that Lyme disease incidence is negatively correlated with mammalian biodiversity, the abundance of fried chicken restaurants and obesity rates. We argue, however, that these correlations are spurious, representing both an 'ecologic fallacy' and Simpson's paradox, and are generated by the use of aggregated data. We argue that correlations based on aggregated data across large spatial scales must be rigorously examined before being invoked as proof of disease ecology theory or as a rationale for public health policy.

Towards common ground in the biodiversity-disease debate

The disease ecology community has struggled to come to consensus on whether biodiversity reduces or increases infectious disease risk, a question that directly affects policy decisions for biodiversity conservation and public health. Here, we summarize the primary points of contention regarding biodiversity–disease relationships and suggest that vector-borne, generalist wildlife and zoonotic pathogens are the types of parasites most likely to be affected by changes to biodiversity. One synthesis on this topic revealed a positive correlation between biodiversity and human disease burden across countries, but as biodiversity changed over time within these countries, this correlation became weaker and more variable. Another synthesis—a meta-analysis of generally smaller-scale experimental and field studies—revealed a negative correlation between biodiversity and infectious diseases (a dilution effect) in various host taxa. These results raise the question of whether biodiversity–disease relationships are more negative at smaller spatial scales. If so, biodiversity conservation at the appropriate scales might prevent wildlife and zoonotic diseases from increasing in prevalence or becoming problematic (general proactive approaches). Further, protecting natural areas from human incursion should reduce zoonotic disease spillover. By contrast, for some infectious diseases, managing particular species or habitats and targeted biomedical approaches (targeted reactive approaches) might outperform biodiversity conservation as a tool for disease control. Importantly, biodiversity conservation and management need to be considered alongside other disease management options. These suggested guiding principles should provide common ground that can enhance scientific and policy clarity for those interested in simultaneously improving wildlife and human health.

There has been intense debate as to whether biodiversity increases or reduces the risk of infectious disease. This Review is the result of researchers from both sides of the debate attempting to reach a consensus.