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Ali S, Tariq A, Kayumba PM, Zeng F, Ahmed Z, Azmat M, Mind'je R, Zhang T. Local surface warming assessment in response to vegetation shifts over arid lands of Central Asia (2001-2020). THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 929:172628. [PMID: 38653410 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172628] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2024] [Revised: 04/01/2024] [Accepted: 04/17/2024] [Indexed: 04/25/2024]
Abstract
The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was established to address the large-scale environmental change across this region. Regardless of the increasingly insightful literature addressing vegetation change across Central Asia, the biogeophysical warming effects of vegetation shifts still need to be clarified. To contribute, the utility of robust satellite observation is explored to evaluate the surface warming effects of vegetation shifts across Central Asia, which is among NEEPSI's hotspots. We estimated an average increase of +1.9 °C in daytime local surface temperature and + 1.5 °C in the nighttime due to vegetation shift (2001-2020). Meanwhile, the mean local latent heat increased by 4.65Wm-2, following the mild reduction of emitted longwave radiation (-0.8Wm-2). We found that vegetation shifts led to local surface warming with a bright surface, noting that the average air surface temperature was revealed to have increased significantly (2001-2020). This signal was driven mainly by agricultural expansion in western Kazakhstan stretching to Tajikistan and Xinjiang, then deforestation confined in Tajikistan, southeast Kazakhstan, and the northwestern edge of Xinjiang, and finally, grassland encroachment occurred massively in the west to central Kazakhstan. These findings address the latest information on Central Asia's vegetation shifts that may be substantial in landscape change mitigation plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sikandar Ali
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele 848300, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Akash Tariq
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele 848300, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; CSIC, Global Ecology Unit, CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Bellaterra, 08193 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Catalonia, Spain.
| | - Patient Mindje Kayumba
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; University of Lay Adventists of Kigali (UNILAK), Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Kigali 6392, Rwanda
| | - Fanjiang Zeng
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele 848300, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
| | - Zeeshan Ahmed
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele 848300, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Muhammad Azmat
- Institute of Geographical Information Systems (IGIS), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Richard Mind'je
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; University of Lay Adventists of Kigali (UNILAK), Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Kigali 6392, Rwanda
| | - Tianju Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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2
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Lenton TM, Abrams JF, Bartsch A, Bathiany S, Boulton CA, Buxton JE, Conversi A, Cunliffe AM, Hebden S, Lavergne T, Poulter B, Shepherd A, Smith T, Swingedouw D, Winkelmann R, Boers N. Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales. Nat Commun 2024; 15:343. [PMID: 38184618 PMCID: PMC10771461 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44609-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 01/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jesse F Abrams
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Annett Bartsch
- b.geos GmbH, Industriestrasse 1A, 2100, Korneuburg, Austria
- Austrian Polar Research Institute, Vienna, Austria
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | | | - Alessandra Conversi
- National Research Council of Italy, ISMAR-Lerici, Forte Santa Teresa, Loc. Pozzuolo, 19032, Lerici (SP), Italy
| | | | - Sophie Hebden
- Future Earth Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden
- European Space Agency, ECSAT, Harwell, Oxfordshire, UK
| | | | | | - Andrew Shepherd
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
| | - Taylor Smith
- Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- University of Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, 33600, Pessac, France
| | | | - Niklas Boers
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
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3
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Matthews HD, Zickfeld K, Koch A, Luers A. Accounting for the climate benefit of temporary carbon storage in nature. Nat Commun 2023; 14:5485. [PMID: 37679349 PMCID: PMC10485027 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41242-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2023] [Accepted: 08/25/2023] [Indexed: 09/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Nature-based climate solutions can contribute to climate mitigation, but the vulnerability of land carbon to disturbances means that efforts to slow or reverse land carbon loss could result in only temporary storage. The challenge of accounting for temporary storage is a key barrier to the implementation of nature-based climate mitigation strategies. Here we offer a solution to this challenge using tonne-year accounting, which integrates the amount of carbon over the time that it remains in storage. We show that tonne-years of carbon storage are proportional to degree-years of avoided warming, and that a physically based tonne-year accounting metric could effectively quantify and track the climate benefit of temporary carbon storage. If the world can sustain an increasing number of tonne-years alongside rapid fossil fuel CO2 emissions reductions, then the resulting carbon storage (even if only temporary) would have considerable and lasting climate value by lowering the global temperature peak.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Alexander Koch
- Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Trove Research, Harpenden, UK
| | - Amy Luers
- Microsoft Corporation, Seattle, WA, USA
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4
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Peng L, Searchinger TD, Zionts J, Waite R. The carbon costs of global wood harvests. Nature 2023; 620:110-115. [PMID: 37407827 PMCID: PMC10396961 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06187-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Accepted: 05/10/2023] [Indexed: 07/07/2023]
Abstract
After agriculture, wood harvest is the human activity that has most reduced the storage of carbon in vegetation and soils1,2. Although felled wood releases carbon to the atmosphere in various steps, the fact that growing trees absorb carbon has led to different carbon-accounting approaches for wood use, producing widely varying estimates of carbon costs. Many approaches give the impression of low, zero or even negative greenhouse gas emissions from wood harvests because, in different ways, they offset carbon losses from new harvests with carbon sequestration from growth of broad forest areas3,4. Attributing this sequestration to new harvests is inappropriate because this other forest growth would occur regardless of new harvests and typically results from agricultural abandonment, recovery from previous harvests and climate change itself. Nevertheless some papers count gross emissions annually, which assigns no value to the capacity of newly harvested forests to regrow and approach the carbon stocks of unharvested forests. Here we present results of a new model that uses time discounting to estimate the present and future carbon costs of global wood harvests under different scenarios. We find that forest harvests between 2010 and 2050 will probably have annualized carbon costs of 3.5-4.2 Gt CO2e yr-1, which approach common estimates of annual emissions from land-use change due to agricultural expansion. Our study suggests an underappreciated option to address climate change by reducing these costs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liqing Peng
- World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
| | - Timothy D Searchinger
- World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
- Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
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5
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Ghausi SA, Tian Y, Zehe E, Kleidon A. Radiative controls by clouds and thermodynamics shape surface temperatures and turbulent fluxes over land. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2220400120. [PMID: 37428906 PMCID: PMC10629566 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2220400120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2022] [Accepted: 06/03/2023] [Indexed: 07/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Land surface temperatures (LSTs) are strongly shaped by radiation but are modulated by turbulent fluxes and hydrologic cycling as the presence of water vapor in the atmosphere (clouds) and at the surface (evaporation) affects temperatures across regions. Here, we used a thermodynamic systems framework forced with independent observations to show that the climatological variations in LSTs across dry and humid regions are mainly mediated through radiative effects. We first show that the turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat are constrained by thermodynamics and the local radiative conditions. This constraint arises from the ability of radiative heating at the surface to perform work to maintain turbulent fluxes and sustain vertical mixing within the convective boundary layer. This implies that reduced evaporative cooling in dry regions is then compensated for by an increased sensible heat flux and buoyancy, which is consistent with observations. We show that the mean temperature variation across dry and humid regions is mainly controlled by clouds that reduce surface heating by solar radiation. Using satellite observations for cloudy and clear-sky conditions, we show that clouds cool the land surface over humid regions by up to 7 K, while in arid regions, this effect is absent due to the lack of clouds. We conclude that radiation and thermodynamic limits are the primary controls on LSTs and turbulent flux exchange which leads to an emergent simplicity in the observed climatological patterns within the complex climate system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarosh Alam Ghausi
- Biospheric Theory and Modelling Group, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena07745, Germany
- International Max Planck Research School for Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Jena07745, Germany
- Institute of Water Resources and River Basin Management, Department of Civil Engineering, Geo and Environmental Sciences, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology – KIT, 76131Karlsruhe, Germany
| | - Yinglin Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere Sciences of the Ministry of Water Resources, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084Beijing, China
| | - Erwin Zehe
- Institute of Water Resources and River Basin Management, Department of Civil Engineering, Geo and Environmental Sciences, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology – KIT, 76131Karlsruhe, Germany
| | - Axel Kleidon
- Biospheric Theory and Modelling Group, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena07745, Germany
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6
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Biophysical impacts of earth greening can substantially mitigate regional land surface temperature warming. Nat Commun 2023; 14:121. [PMID: 36624102 PMCID: PMC9829907 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-35799-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2022] [Accepted: 01/02/2023] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Vegetation change can alter surface energy balance and subsequently affect the local climate. This biophysical impact has been well studied for forestation cases, but the sign and magnitude for persistent earth greening remain controversial. Based on long-term remote sensing observations, we quantify the unidirectional impact of vegetation greening on radiometric surface temperature over 2001-2018. Here, we show a global negative temperature response with large spatial and seasonal variability. Snow cover, vegetation greenness, and shortwave radiation are the major driving factors of the temperature sensitivity by regulating the relative dominance of radiative and non-radiative processes. Combined with the observed greening trend, we find a global cooling of -0.018 K/decade, which slows down 4.6 ± 3.2% of the global warming. Regionally, this cooling effect can offset 39.4 ± 13.9% and 19.0 ± 8.2% of the corresponding warming in India and China. These results highlight the necessity of considering this vegetation-related biophysical climate effect when informing local climate adaptation strategies.
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7
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Stavros EN, Chrone J, Cawse‐Nicholson K, Freeman A, Glenn NF, Guild L, Kokaly R, Lee C, Luvall J, Pavlick R, Poulter B, Schollaert Uz S, Serbin S, Thompson DR, Townsend PA, Turpie K, Yuen K, Thome K, Wang W, Zareh S, Nastal J, Bearden D, Miller CE, Schimel D. Designing an Observing System to Study the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) of the Earth in the 2020s. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. BIOGEOSCIENCES 2023; 128:e2021JG006471. [PMID: 37362830 PMCID: PMC10286770 DOI: 10.1029/2021jg006471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2021] [Revised: 03/16/2022] [Accepted: 03/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/28/2023]
Abstract
Observations of planet Earth from space are a critical resource for science and society. Satellite measurements represent very large investments and United States (US) agencies organize their effort to maximize the return on that investment. The US National Research Council conducts a survey of Earth science and applications to prioritize observations for the coming decade. The most recent survey prioritized a visible to shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer and a multispectral thermal infrared imager to meet a range of needs for studying Surface Biology and Geology (SBG). SBG will be the premier integrated observatory for observing the emerging impacts of climate change by characterizing the diversity of plant life and resolving chemical and physiological signatures. It will address wildfire risk, behavior, and recovery as well as responses to hazards such as oil spills, toxic minerals in minelands, harmful algal blooms, landslides, and other geological hazards. The SBG team analyzed needed instrument characteristics (spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, measurement uncertainty) and assessed the cost, mass, power, volume, and risk of different architectures. We present an overview of the Research and Applications trade-study analysis of algorithms, calibration and validation needs, and societal applications with specifics of substudies detailed in other articles in this special collection. We provide a value framework to converge from hundreds down to three candidate architectures recommended for development. The analysis identified valuable opportunities for international collaboration to increase the revisit frequency, adding value for all partners, leading to a clear measurement strategy for an observing system architecture.
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Affiliation(s)
- E. Natasha Stavros
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - Jon Chrone
- NASA Langley Research CenterHamptonVAUSA
| | | | - Anthony Freeman
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | | | | | | | - Christine Lee
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | | | - Ryan Pavlick
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | | | | | | | - David R. Thompson
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - Philip A. Townsend
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
- University of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWIUSA
| | - Kevin Turpie
- NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbeltMDUSA
- University of Maryland Baltimore CountyGreenbeltMDUSA
| | - Karen Yuen
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - Kurt Thome
- NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbeltMDUSA
| | | | - Shannon‐Kian Zareh
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - Jamie Nastal
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - David Bearden
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - Charles E. Miller
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - David Schimel
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
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8
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Biodiversity loss and climate extremes — study the feedbacks. Nature 2022; 612:30-32. [DOI: 10.1038/d41586-022-04152-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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9
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Makarieva AM, Nefiodov AV, Nobre AD, Sheil D, Nobre P, Pokorný J, Hesslerová P, Li BL. Vegetation impact on atmospheric moisture transport under increasing land-ocean temperature contrasts. Heliyon 2022; 8:e11173. [PMID: 36325135 PMCID: PMC9618993 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11173] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2022] [Revised: 09/02/2022] [Accepted: 10/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Destabilization of the water cycle threatens human lives and livelihoods. Meanwhile our understanding of whether and how changes in vegetation cover could trigger transitions in moisture availability remains incomplete. This challenge calls for better evidence as well as for the theoretical concepts to describe it. Here we briefly summarize the theoretical questions surrounding the role of vegetation cover in the dynamics of a moist atmosphere. We discuss the previously unrecognized sensitivity of local wind power to condensation rate as revealed by our analysis of the continuity equation for a gas mixture. Using the framework of condensation-induced atmospheric dynamics, we then show that with the temperature contrast between land and ocean increasing up to a critical threshold, ocean-to-land moisture transport reaches a tipping point where it can stop or even reverse. Land-ocean temperature contrasts are affected by both global and regional processes, in particular, by the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat that are strongly influenced by vegetation. Our results clarify how a disturbance of natural vegetation cover, e.g., by deforestation, can disrupt large-scale atmospheric circulation and moisture transport: an increase of sensible heat flux upon deforestation raises land surface temperature and this can elevate the temperature difference between land and ocean beyond the threshold. In view of the increasing pressure on natural ecosystems, successful strategies of mitigating climate change require taking into account the impact of vegetation on moist atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides a theoretical framework to assess this impact. The available data for the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the observed climatological land-ocean temperature contrasts are close to the threshold. This can explain the increasing fluctuations in the continental water cycle including droughts and floods and signifies a yet greater potential importance for large-scale forest conservation. Consideration of condensation dynamics reveals temperature-related tipping points. Additional heat over land can block oceanic moisture import causing severe drought. As the land warms faster than the ocean, these tipping thresholds approach. Deforestation increases sensible heat and exacerbates these water cycle extremes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anastassia M. Makarieva
- Theoretical Physics Division, Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, Gatchina, St. Petersburg, 188300, Russia,Institute for Advanced Study, Technical University of Munich, Lichtenbergstrasse 2 a, Garching, D-85748, Germany,USDA-China MOST Joint Research Center for AgroEcology and Sustainability, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521-0124, USA,Corresponding author at: Theoretical Physics Division, Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, Gatchina, St. Petersburg, 188300, Russia.
| | - Andrei V. Nefiodov
- Theoretical Physics Division, Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, Gatchina, St. Petersburg, 188300, Russia
| | - Antonio Donato Nobre
- Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre INPE, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, 12227-010, Brazil
| | - Douglas Sheil
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, PO Box 47, Wageningen, 6700 AA, the Netherlands,Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Kota Bogor, 16115, Jawa Barat, Indonesia,Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway
| | - Paulo Nobre
- Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies INPE, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, 12227-010, Brazil
| | - Jan Pokorný
- ENKI, o.p.s., Dukelská 145, Třeboň, 379 01, Czech Republic
| | | | - Bai-Lian Li
- USDA-China MOST Joint Research Center for AgroEcology and Sustainability, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521-0124, USA
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10
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Deforestation intensifies daily temperature variability in the northern extratropics. Nat Commun 2022; 13:5955. [PMID: 36216833 PMCID: PMC9550804 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33622-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2021] [Accepted: 09/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
While the biogeophysical effects of deforestation on average and extreme temperatures are broadly documented, how deforestation influences temperature variability remains largely unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of idealized deforestation on daily temperature variability at the global scale based on multiple earth system models and in situ observations. Here, we show that deforestation can intensify daily temperature variability (by up to 20%) in the northern extratropics, particularly in winter, leading to more frequent rapid extreme warming and cooling events. The higher temperature variability can be attributed to the enhanced near-surface horizontal temperature advection and simultaneously is partly offset by the lower variability in surface sensible heat flux. We also show responses of daily temperature variability to historical deforestation and future potential afforestation. This study reveals the overlooked effects of deforestation or afforestation on temperature variability and has implications for large-scale afforestation in northern extratropic countries. A new study finds that deforestation in the northern extratropics can enhance horizontal temperature advection through biogeophysical processes, leading to higher local daily temperature variability, particularly in winter.
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11
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Portmann R, Beyerle U, Davin E, Fischer EM, De Hertog S, Schemm S. Global forestation and deforestation affect remote climate via adjusted atmosphere and ocean circulation. Nat Commun 2022; 13:5569. [PMID: 36195588 PMCID: PMC9532392 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33279-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2022] [Accepted: 09/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Forests can store large amounts of carbon and provide essential ecosystem services. Massive tree planting is thus sometimes portrayed as a panacea to mitigate climate change and related impacts. Recent controversies about the potential benefits and drawbacks of forestation have centered on the carbon storage potential of forests and the local or global thermodynamic impacts. Here we discuss how global-scale forestation and deforestation change the Earth's energy balance, thereby affect the global atmospheric circulation and even have profound effects on the ocean circulation. We perform multicentury coupled climate model simulations in which preindustrial vegetation cover is either completely forested or deforested and carbon dioxide mixing ratio is kept constant. We show that global-scale forestation leads to a weakening and poleward shift of the Northern mid-latitude circulation, slows-down the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and affects the strength of the Hadley cell, whereas deforestation leads to reversed changes. Consequently, both land surface changes substantially affect regional precipitation, temperature, clouds, and surface wind patterns across the globe. The design process of large-scale forestation projects thus needs to take into account global circulation adjustments and their influence on remote climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raphael Portmann
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. .,Agroscope Reckenholz, Climate and Agriculture, Division of Agroecology and Environment, Zurich, Switzerland.
| | - Urs Beyerle
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Edouard Davin
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Wyss Academy for Nature, Climate and Environmental Physics, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Erich M Fischer
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Steven De Hertog
- Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Sebastian Schemm
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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12
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Li H, Wu Y, Liu S, Zhao W, Xiao J, Winowiecki LA, Vågen TG, Xu J, Yin X, Wang F, Sivakumar B, Cao Y, Sun P, Zhang G. The Grain-for-Green project offsets warming-induced soil organic carbon loss and increases soil carbon stock in Chinese Loess Plateau. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 837:155469. [PMID: 35523345 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155469] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2021] [Revised: 03/30/2022] [Accepted: 04/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock is a vital element affecting the climate, and ecological restoration is potentially an effective measure to mitigate climate change by enhancing vegetation and soil carbon stocks and thereby offsetting greenhouse gas emissions. The Grain-for-Green project (GFGP) implemented in Chinese Loess Plateau (LP) since 1999 is one of the largest ecological restoration projects in the world. However, the contributions of ecological restoration and climate change to ecosystem soil carbon sequestration are still unclear. In this study, we improved a soil carbon decomposition framework by optimizing the initial SOC stock based on full spatial simulation of SOC and incorporating the priming effect to investigate the SOC dynamics across the LP GFGP region from 1982 through 2017. Our results indicated that SOC stock in the GFGP region increased by 20.18 Tg C from 1982 through 2017. Most portion (15.83 Tg C) of the SOC increase was accumulated when the GFGP was initiated, with a SOC sink of 16.12 Tg C owing to revegetation restoration and a carbon loss of 0.29 Tg C due to warming during this period. The relationships between SOC and forest canopy height and investigations on the SOC dynamics after afforestation revealed that the accumulation rate of SOC could be as high as 24.68 g C m-2 yr-1 during the 70 years following afforestation, and that SOC could decline thereafter (-8.89 g C m-2 yr-1), which was mainly caused by warming. This study provides a new method for quantifying the contribution of ecological restoration to SOC changes, and also cautions the potential risk of LP SOC loss in the mature forest soil under future warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huiwen Li
- Department of Earth & Environmental Science, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710049, China; Key Laboratory of Degraded and Unused Land Consolidation Engineering, The Ministry of Natural Resources of China, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710075, China
| | - Yiping Wu
- Department of Earth & Environmental Science, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710049, China; Technology Innovation Center for Land Engineering and Human Settlements, Shaanxi Land Engineering Construction Group Co. Ltd and Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710115, China.
| | - Shuguang Liu
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry and Ecology in South China, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan Province 410004, China.
| | - Wenzhi Zhao
- Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology and River Basin Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu Province 730000, China
| | - Jingfeng Xiao
- Earth Systems Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA
| | - Leigh A Winowiecki
- World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), P.O. Box 30677-00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Tor-Gunnar Vågen
- World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), P.O. Box 30677-00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Jianchu Xu
- Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Heilongtan, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, China
| | - Xiaowei Yin
- Department of Earth & Environmental Science, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710049, China
| | - Fan Wang
- Department of Earth & Environmental Science, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710049, China
| | - Bellie Sivakumar
- Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India
| | - Yue Cao
- Xi'an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment Research, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710061, China
| | - Pengcheng Sun
- Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation on the Loess Plateau of Ministry of Water Resources, Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou, Henan Province 450003, China
| | - Guangchuang Zhang
- Department of Earth & Environmental Science, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710049, China
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Albedo-Induced Global Warming Impact at Multiple Temporal Scales within an Upper Midwest USA Watershed. LAND 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/land11020283] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Land surface albedo is a significant regulator of climate. Changes in land use worldwide have greatly reshaped landscapes in the recent decades. Deforestation, agricultural development, and urban expansion alter land surface albedo, each with unique influences on shortwave radiative forcing and global warming impact (GWI). Here, we characterize the changes in landscape albedo-induced GWI (GWIΔα) at multiple temporal scales, with a special focus on the seasonal and monthly GWIΔα over a 19-year period for different land cover types in five ecoregions within a watershed in the upper Midwest USA. The results show that land cover changes from the original forest exhibited a net cooling effect, with contributions of annual GWIΔα varying by cover type and ecoregion. Seasonal and monthly variations of the GWIΔα showed unique trends over the 19-year period and contributed differently to the total GWIΔα. Cropland contributed most to cooling the local climate, with seasonal and monthly offsets of 18% and 83%, respectively, of the annual greenhouse gas emissions of maize fields in the same area. Urban areas exhibited both cooling and warming effects. Cropland and urban areas showed significantly different seasonal GWIΔα at some ecoregions. The landscape composition of the five ecoregions could cause different net landscape GWIΔα.
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14
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Contrasting impacts of forests on cloud cover based on satellite observations. Nat Commun 2022; 13:670. [PMID: 35115519 PMCID: PMC8813950 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28161-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2021] [Accepted: 12/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Forests play a pivotal role in regulating climate and sustaining the hydrological cycle. The biophysical impacts of forests on clouds, however, remain unclear. Here, we use satellite data to show that forests in different regions have opposite effects on summer cloud cover. We find enhanced clouds over most temperate and boreal forests but inhibited clouds over Amazon, Central Africa, and Southeast US. The spatial variation in the sign of cloud effects is driven by sensible heating, where cloud enhancement is more likely to occur over forests with larger sensible heat, and cloud inhibition over forests with smaller sensible heat. Ongoing forest cover loss has led to cloud increase over forest loss hotspots in the Amazon (+0.78%), Indonesia (+1.19%), and Southeast US (+ 0.09%), but cloud reduction in East Siberia (-0.20%) from 2002-2018. Our data-driven assessment improves mechanistic understanding of forest-cloud interactions, which remain uncertain in Earth system models. How forests influence cloud cover in different regions is not well understood. Here, the authors use satellite data to show that forests enhance clouds over most temperate and boreal forests but inhibited clouds over forests of Amazon, Central Africa, and Southeast US relative to nonforest areas.
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15
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Sun Z, Scherer L, Tukker A, Spawn-Lee SA, Bruckner M, Gibbs HK, Behrens P. Dietary change in high-income nations alone can lead to substantial double climate dividend. NATURE FOOD 2022; 3:29-37. [PMID: 37118487 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-021-00431-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2021] [Accepted: 11/11/2021] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Abstract
A dietary shift from animal-based foods to plant-based foods in high-income nations could reduce greenhouse gas emissions from direct agricultural production and increase carbon sequestration if resulting spared land was restored to its antecedent natural vegetation. We estimate this double effect by simulating the adoption of the EAT-Lancet planetary health diet by 54 high-income nations representing 68% of global gross domestic product and 17% of population. Our results show that such dietary change could reduce annual agricultural production emissions of high-income nations' diets by 61% while sequestering as much as 98.3 (55.6-143.7) GtCO2 equivalent, equal to approximately 14 years of current global agricultural emissions until natural vegetation matures. This amount could potentially fulfil high-income nations' future sum of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) obligations under the principle of equal per capita CDR responsibilities. Linking land, food, climate and public health policy will be vital to harnessing the opportunities of a double climate dividend.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhongxiao Sun
- Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands.
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.
| | - Laura Scherer
- Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Arnold Tukker
- Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands
- The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research TNO, The Hague, the Netherlands
| | - Seth A Spawn-Lee
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
- Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Martin Bruckner
- Institute for Ecological Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria
| | - Holly K Gibbs
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
- Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Paul Behrens
- Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands
- Leiden University College The Hague, The Hague, the Netherlands
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