Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change

Can green firebreaks help balance biodiversity, carbon storage and wildfire risk?

Green firebreaks (strategically placed plantings of low-flammability vegetation) are designed to reduce the rate of fire spread and thereby increase the suppressibility of fires. Successful examples have led to some fire-prone regions investing heavily in the establishment of green firebreaks as a method of reducing fire risk while improving biodiversity and carbon storage. However, beyond small-scale case studies there has been little research quantitatively exploring the interactions among biodiversity, carbon, and wildfire risk in relation to green firebreaks. Here, we combine a Bayesian Network (BN) analysis, and fire simulations in PHOENIX RapidFire (hereafter Phoenix), to identify planting designs that reduce wildfire risks while also providing positive biodiversity and carbon outcomes. Using a BN analysis, we prioritised optimal planting designs as the combination of elements (e.g., stem density, distance from houses, shrub design, age etc.) that delivered the greatest increase in biodiversity and carbon while reducing fire risk to people and property for eight sites across south-eastern Australia. We ranked combinations of planting designs, prioritising house, and life loss first, to identify optimal designs. Optimal planting designs varied among sites, although the design elements that best reduced risk to houses and lives were consistent. These elements included 'scattered' shrubs and planting densities of trees consistent with an open forest structure. Estimated fuel loads for the optimal planting design at each site were used to create a simulated revegetation area in Phoenix. We simulated fire behaviour in Phoenix across a grid of ∼1000 ignitions for each site, and for up to 54 historic weather conditions for a 'current fuel' scenario (no green firebreaks present) compared with a 'green firebreak fuel' scenario. We found that the establishment of a green firebreak did not result in significant changes to fire behaviour at most sites. In some cases, it reduced risk to people and property, and where fire behaviour did change in terms of intensity, frequency, ember attack and overall risk, the differences relative to the current fuel scenario were less than two percent. Overall, simulated green firebreaks in most cases were found to provide biodiversity and carbon benefits without increasing fire risk. These findings illustrate their potential as an effective nature-based solution for managing multiple priorities; however, further testing of real plantings is required to evaluate this potential as an at-scale solution.

Stimulated photosynthesis of regrowth after fire in coastal scrub vegetation: increased water or nutrient availability?

Fire-prone landscapes experience frequent fires, disrupting above-ground biomass and altering below-ground soil nutrient availability. Augmentation of leaf nutrients or leaf water balance can both reduce limitations to photosynthesis and facilitate post-fire recovery in plants. These modes of fire responses are often studied separately and hence are rarely compared. We hypothesized that under severe burning, woody plants of a coastal scrub ecosystem would have higher rates of photosynthesis (Anet) than in unburned areas due to a transient release from leaf nutrient and water limitations, facilitating biomass recovery post-burn. To compare these fire recovery mechanisms in regrowing plants, we measured leaf gas exchange, leaf and soil N and P concentrations, and plant stomatal limitations in Australian native coastal scrub species across a burn sequence of sites at 1 year after severe fire, 7 years following a light controlled fire, and decades after any fire at North Head, Sydney, Australia. Recent burning stimulated increases in Anet by 20% over unburned trees and across three tree species. These species showed increases in total leaf N and P as a result of burning of 28% and 50% for these macronutrients, respectively, across the three species. The boost in leaf nutrients and stimulated leaf biochemical capacity for photosynthesis, alongside species-specific stomatal conductance (gs) increases, together contributed to increased photosynthetic rates after burning compared with the long-unburned area. Photosynthetic stimulation after burning occurred due to increases in nutrient concentrations in leaves, particularly N, as well as stomatal opening for some species. The findings suggest that changes in species photosynthesis and growth with increased future fire intensity or frequency may be facilitated by changes in leaf physiology after burning. On this basis, species dominance during regrowth depends on nutrient and water availability during post-fire recovery.

Fire effects on soil CH4 and N2O fluxes across terrestrial ecosystems

Fire, as a natural disturbance, significantly shapes and influences the functions and services of terrestrial ecosystems via biotic and abiotic processes. Comprehending the influence of fire on soil greenhouse gas dynamics is crucial for understanding the feedback mechanisms between fire disturbances and climate change. Despite work on CO2 fluxes, there is a large uncertainty as to whether and how soil CH4 and N2O fluxes change in response to fire disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems. To narrow this knowledge gap, we performed a meta-analysis synthesizing 3615 paired observations from 116 global studies. Our findings revealed that fire increased global soil CH4 uptake in uplands by 23.2 %, soil CH4 emissions from peatlands by 74.7 %, and soil N2O emissions in terrestrial ecosystems (including upland and peatland) by 18.8 %. Fire increased soil CH4 uptake in boreal, temperate, and subtropical forests by 20.1 %, 38.8 %, and 30.2 %, respectively, and soil CH4 emissions in tropical forests by 193.3 %. Additionally, fire negatively affected soil total carbon (TC; -10.3 %), soil organic carbon (SOC; -15.6 %), microbial biomass carbon (MBC; -44.8 %), dissolved organic carbon (DOC; -27 %), microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN; -24.7 %), soil water content (SWC; -9.2 %), and water table depth (WTD; -68.2 %). Conversely, the fire increased soil bulk density (BD; +10.8 %), ammonium nitrogen (NH4+-N; +46 %), nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N; +54 %), pH (+4.4 %), and soil temperature (+15.4 %). Our meta-regression analysis showed that the positive effects of fire on soil CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly positively correlated with mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP), indicating that climate warming will amplify the positive effects of fire disturbance on soil CH4 and N2O emissions. Taken together, since higher future temperatures are likely to prolong the fire season and increase the potential of fires, this could lead to positive feedback between warming, fire events, CH4 and N2O emissions, and future climate change.

Estimated Impacts of Prescribed Fires on Air Quality and Premature Deaths in Georgia and Surrounding Areas in the US, 2015-2020

Smoke from wildfires poses a substantial threat to health in communities near and far. To mitigate the extent and potential damage of wildfires, prescribed burning techniques are commonly employed as land management tools; however, they introduce their own smoke-related risks. This study investigates the impact of prescribed fires on daily average PM2.5 and maximum daily 8-h averaged O3 (MDA8-O3) concentrations and estimates premature deaths associated with short-term exposure to prescribed fire PM2.5 and MDA8-O3 in Georgia and surrounding areas of the Southeastern US from 2015 to 2020. Our findings indicate that over the study domain, prescribed fire contributes to average daily PM2.5 by 0.94 ± 1.45 μg/m3 (mean ± standard deviation), accounting for 14.0% of year-round ambient PM2.5. Higher average daily contributions were predicted during the extensive burning season (January-April): 1.43 ± 1.97 μg/m3 (20.0% of ambient PM2.5). Additionally, prescribed burning is also responsible for an annual average increase of 0.36 ± 0.61 ppb in MDA8-O3 (approximately 0.8% of ambient MDA8-O3) and 1.3% (0.62 ± 0.88 ppb) during the extensive burning season. We estimate that short-term exposure to prescribed fire PM2.5 and MDA8-O3 could have caused 2665 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2249-3080) and 233 (95% CI: 148-317) excess deaths, respectively. These results suggest that smoke from prescribed burns increases the mortality. However, refraining from such burns may escalate the risk of wildfires; therefore, the trade-offs between the health impacts of wildfires and prescribed fires, including morbidity, need to be taken into consideration in future studies.

Occupational injuries caused by fire and smoke in Victoria, Australia, 2003-2021: a descriptive study

OBJECTIVES

Hospital attendance related to fire, flame or smoke exposure is commonly associated with work. The aim of this study was to examine time trends and risk factors for work-related fire/flame/smoke injuries in Victoria, Australia.

METHODS

This study was based on emergency department (ED) presentation records from the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset, 2003-2021. Cases were people aged 15-74 years with injury-related ED presentations, if cause of injury was recorded as fire/flame/smoke, based on coded data and/or narratives. Work-related rates were calculated per employed persons; non-work rates were calculated per population. Work-related and non-work-related cases were compared using logistic regression modelling.

RESULTS

There were 11 838 ED presentations related to fire/flame/smoke: 1864 (15.7%) were work-related. Non-work-related rates were 12.3 ED presentations per 100 000 population, and work-related rates were 3.43 per 100 000 employed persons annually. Over the study period, work-related rates decreased annually by 2.0% (p<0.0001), while non-work rates increased by 1.1% (p<0.0001). Work-related cases (vs non-work) were associated with summer (vs winter), but the association with extreme bushfire periods (Victorian 'Black Saturday' and 'Black Summer') was not statistically significant. Work-related cases were less severe than non-work-related cases, evidenced by triage status and subsequent admission.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of occupational fire/flame/smoke-related injury presentations decreased over the past two decades in Victoria, while non-work-related rates increased. This could reflect improved safety in the workplace. Hospital data, however, cannot be used to distinguish occupation or industry therefore, employment data linkage studies are recommended to further inform workplace preventive measures.

Identifying and managing disturbance-stimulated flammability in woody ecosystems

Many forest types globally have been subject to an increase in the frequency of, and area burnt by, high-severity wildfire. Here we explore the role that previous disturbance has played in increasing the extent and severity of subsequent forest fires. We summarise evidence documenting and explaining the mechanisms underpinning a pulse of flammability that may follow disturbances such as fire, logging, clearing or windthrow (a process we term disturbance-stimulated flammability). Disturbance sometimes initiates a short initial period of low flammability, but then drives an extended period of increased flammability as vegetation regrows. Our analysis initially focuses on well-documented cases in Australia, but we also discuss where these pattens may apply elsewhere, including in the Northern Hemisphere. We outline the mechanisms by which disturbance drives flammability through disrupting the ecological controls that limit it in undisturbed forests. We then develop and test a conceptual model to aid prediction of woody vegetation communities where such patterns of disturbance-stimulated flammability may occur. We discuss the interaction of ecological controls with climate change, which is driving larger and more severe fires. We also explore the current state of knowledge around the point where disturbed, fire-prone stands are sufficiently widespread in landscapes that they may promote spatial contagion of high-severity wildfire that overwhelms any reduction in fire spread offered by less-flammable stands. We discuss how land managers might deal with the major challenges that changes in landscape cover and altered fire regimes may have created. This is especially pertinent in landscapes now dominated by extensive areas of young forest regenerating after logging, regrowing following broadscale fire including prescribed burning, or regenerating following agricultural land abandonment. Where disturbance is found to stimulate flammability, then key management actions should consider the long-term benefits of: (i) limiting disturbance-based management like logging or burning that creates young forests and triggers understorey development; (ii) protecting young forests from disturbances and assisting them to transition to an older, less-flammable state; and (iii) reinforcing the fire-inhibitory properties of older, less-flammable stands through methods for rapid fire detection and suppression.

Australian Black summer smoke signal on Antarctic aerosol collected between New Zealand and the Ross sea

Open biomass burning (BB) events are a well-known primary aerosol source, resulting in the emission of significant amount of gaseous and particulate matter and affecting Earth's radiation budget. The 2019-2020 summer, known as "Australian Black Summer", showed exceptional duration and intensity of seasonal wildfires, triggered by high temperatures and severe droughts. Since increasing megafires are predicted due to expected climate changes, it is critical to study the impact of BB aerosol on a large scale and evaluate related transport processes. In this study, five aerosol samples (total suspended particles with a diameter >1 μm) were collected during the XXXV Italian Expedition in Antarctica on board of the R/V Laura Bassi from 6th of January to February 16, 2020, along the sailing route from Lyttelton harbor (New Zealand) to Terra Nova Bay (Antarctica). Levoglucosan and its isomers have been analyzed as markers of BB, together with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), sucrose and alcohol sugars. Ionic species and carboxylic acids have been analyzed to support the identification of aerosol sources and its aging. Results showed high levoglucosan concentrations (325-1266 pg m-3) during the campaign, suggesting the widespread presence of smoke in the region, because of huge wildfire releases. Backward trajectories indicated the presence of long-range atmospheric transport from South America, probably carrying wildfires plume, in agreement with literature. Regional sources have been suggested for PAHs, particularly for 3-4 rings' compounds; monosaccharides, sucrose, arabitol, and mannitol were related to marine and biogenic contributions. In a warming climate scenario, more frequent and extensive wildfire episodes are expected in Australia, potentially altering albedo, aerosol radiative properties, and cloud interactions. Therefore, it is crucial to strengthens the investigations on the regional climatic effects of these events in Antarctica.

Trends in childhood leukemia incidence in urban countries and their relation to environmental factors, including space weather

Leukemia is the most common cancer in children. Its incidence has been increasing worldwide since 1910th, suggesting the presence of common sources of the disease, most likely related to people's lifestyle and environment. Understanding the relationship between childhood leukemia and environmental conditions is critical to preventing the disease. This discussion article examines established potentially-carcinogenic environmental factors, such as vehicle emissions and fires, alongside space weather-related parameters like cosmic rays and the geomagnetic field. To discern the primary contributor, we analyze trends and annual variations in leukemia incidence among 0-14-year-olds in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Russia from 1990 to 2018. Comparisons are drawn with the number of vehicles (representing gasoline emissions) and fire-affected land areas (indicative of fire-related pollutants), with novel data for Russia introduced for the first time. While childhood leukemia incidence is rising in all countries under study, the rate of increase in Russia is twice that of other nations, possibly due to a delayed surge in the country's vehicle fleet compared to others. This trend in Russia may offer insights into past leukemia levels in the USA, Canada, and Australia. Our findings highlight vehicular emissions as the most substantial environmental hazard for children among the factors examined. We also advocate for the consideration of potential modulation of carcinogenic effects arising from variations in cosmic ray intensity, as well as the protective role of the geomagnetic field. To support the idea, we provide examples of potential space weather effects at both local and global scales. The additional analysis includes statistical data from 49 countries and underscores the significance of the magnetic field dip in the South Atlantic Anomaly in contributing to a peak in childhood leukemia incidence in Peru, Ecuador and Chile. We emphasize the importance of collectively assessing all potentially carcinogenic factors for the successful future predictions of childhood leukemia risk in each country.

Climate Change, Landscape Fires, and Human Health: A Global Perspective

Landscape fires are an integral component of the Earth system and a feature of prehistoric, subsistence, and industrial economies. Specific spatiotemporal patterns of landscape fire occur in different locations around the world, shaped by the interactions between environmental and human drivers of fire activity. Seven distinct types of landscape fire emerge from these interactions: remote area fires, wildfire disasters, savanna fires, Indigenous burning, prescribed burning, agricultural burning, and deforestation fires. All can have substantial impacts on human health and well-being directly and indirectly through (a) exposure to heat flux (e.g., injuries and destructive impacts), (b) emissions (e.g., smoke-related health impacts), and (c) altered ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity, amenity, water quality, and climate impacts). Minimizing the adverse effects of landscape fires on population health requires understanding how human and environmental influences on fire impacts can be modified through interventions targeted at individual, community, and regional levels.

Shifting fire regimes cause continent-wide transformation of threatened species habitat

Human actions are causing widespread increases in fire size, frequency, and severity in diverse ecosystems globally. This alteration of fire regimes is considered a threat to numerous animal species, but empirical evidence of how fire regimes are shifting within both threatened species' ranges and protected areas is scarce, particularly at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a big data approach to quantify multidecadal changes in fire regimes in southern Australia from 1980 to 2021, spanning 415 reserves (21.5 million ha) and 129 threatened species' ranges including birds, mammals, reptiles, invertebrates, and frogs. Most reserves and threatened species' ranges within the region have experienced declines in unburnt vegetation (≥30 y without fire), increases in recently burnt vegetation (≤5 y since fire), and increases in fire frequency. The mean percentage of unburnt vegetation within reserves declined from 61 to 36% (1980 to 2021), whereas the mean percentage of recently burnt vegetation increased from 20 to 35%, and mean fire frequency increased by 32%, with the latter two trends primarily driven by the record-breaking 2019 to 2020 fire season. The strongest changes occurred for high-elevation threatened species, and reserves of high elevation, high productivity, and strong rainfall decline, particularly in the southeast of the continent. Our results provide evidence for the widely held but poorly tested assumption that threatened species are experiencing widespread declines in unburnt habitat and increases in fire frequency. This underscores the imperative for developing management strategies that conserve fire-threatened species in an increasingly fiery future.

Amundsen Sea Ice Loss Contributes to Australian Wildfires

Wildfires in Australia have attracted extensive attention in recent years, especially for the devastating 2019-2020 fire season. Remote forcing, such as those from tropical oceans, plays an important role in driving the abnormal weather conditions associated with wildfires. However, whether high latitude climate change can impact Australian fires is largely unclear. In this study, we reveal a robust relationship between Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC), primarily over the Amundsen Sea region, with Australian springtime fire activity, by using reanalysis data sets, AMIP simulation results, and a state-of-the-art climate model simulation. Specifically, a diminished Amundsen SIC leads to the formation of a high-pressure system above Australia as a result of the eastward propagation of Rossby waves. Meanwhile, two strengthened meridional cells originating from the tropic and polar regions also enhance subsiding airflow in Australia, resulting in prolonged arid and high-temperature conditions. This mechanism explains about 28% of the variability of Australian fire weather and contributed more than 40% to the 2019 extreme burning event, especially in the eastern hotspots. These findings contribute to our understanding of polar-low latitude climate teleconnection and have important implications for projecting Australian fires as well as the global environment.

A monthly gridded burned area database of national wildland fire data

We assembled the first gridded burned area (BA) database of national wildfire data (ONFIRE), a comprehensive and integrated resource for researchers, non-government organisations, and government agencies analysing wildfires in various regions of the Earth. We extracted and harmonised records from different regions and sources using open and reproducible methods, providing data in a common framework for the whole period available (starting from 1950 in Australia, 1959 in Canada, 1985 in Chile, 1980 in Europe, and 1984 in the United States) up to 2021 on a common 1° × 1° grid. The data originate from national agencies (often, ground mapping), thus representing the best local expert knowledge. Key opportunities and limits in using this dataset are discussed as well as possible future expansions of this open-source approach that should be explored. This dataset complements existing gridded BA data based on remote sensing and offers a valuable opportunity to better understand and assess fire regime changes, and their drivers, in these regions. The ONFIRE database can be freely accessed at https://zenodo.org/record/8289245 .

Population trends in the vulnerable Grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus; results from a long-term, range-wide study

Monitoring is necessary for the management of any threatened species if its predicament and status are to improve. Monitoring establishes baseline data for tracking trends in distribution and abundance and is a key tool for informing threatened species management. Across much of the Old World, bats in the genus Pteropus (Pteropodidae, Chiroptera) face significant threats from habitat loss, conflict with humans, and hunting. Despite conflict with humans and their threatened status, few Pteropus are being monitored. Often, this is because of difficulties associated with their high mobility, large and easily disturbed aggregations, and their use of unknown or remote habitat. Here we describe 10 years of results from the National Flying-fox Monitoring Program (NFFMP) for the grey-headed flying-fox, (Pteropus poliocephalus) in Australia. Range-wide quarterly surveys were conducted over a three-day period since November 2012 using standardized methods appropriate to conditions encountered at each roost. For our analysis of the population and its trend, we used a state-space model to account for the ecology of the grey-headed flying-fox and the errors associated with the surveying process. Despite the general perception that the species is in decline, our raw data and the modelled population trend suggest the grey-headed flying-fox population has remained stable during the NFFMP period, with the range also stable. These results indicate that the species' extreme mobility and broad diet bestow it with a high level of resilience to various disturbance events. Long-term, range-wide studies such as this one, are crucial for understanding relatively long-lived and highly nomadic species such as the grey-headed flying-fox. The outcomes of this study highlight the need for such systematic population monitoring of all threatened Pteropus species.

The impact of multifactorial stress combination on plants, crops, and ecosystems: how should we prepare for what comes next?

The complexity of environmental conditions encountered by plants in the field, or in nature, is gradually increasing due to anthropogenic activities that promote global warming, climate change, and increased levels of pollutants. While in the past it seemed sufficient to study how plants acclimate to one or even two different stresses affecting them simultaneously, the complex conditions developing on our planet necessitate a new approach of studying stress in plants: Acclimation to multiple stress conditions occurring concurrently or consecutively (termed, multifactorial stress combination [MFSC]). In an initial study of the plant response to MFSC, conducted with Arabidopsis thaliana seedlings subjected to an MFSC of six different abiotic stresses, it was found that with the increase in the number and complexity of different stresses simultaneously impacting a plant, plant growth and survival declined, even if the effects of each stress involved in such MFSC on the plant was minimal or insignificant. In three recent studies, conducted with different crop plants, MFSC was found to have similar effects on a commercial rice cultivar, a maize hybrid, tomato, and soybean, causing significant reductions in growth, biomass, physiological parameters, and/or yield traits. As the environmental conditions on our planet are gradually worsening, as well as becoming more complex, addressing MFSC and its effects on agriculture and ecosystems worldwide becomes a high priority. In this review, we address the effects of MFSC on plants, crops, agriculture, and different ecosystems worldwide, and highlight potential avenues to enhance the resilience of crops to MFSC.

Vegetation-fire feedbacks increase subtropical wildfire risk in scrubland and reduce it in forests

Climate dictates wildfire activity around the world. But East and Southeast Asia are an apparent exception as fire-activity variation there is unrelated to climatic variables. In subtropical China, fire activity decreased by 80% between 2003 and 2020 amid increased fire risks globally. Here, we assessed the fire regime, vegetation structure, fuel flammability and their interactions across subtropical Hubei, China. We show that tree basal area (TBA) and fuel flammability explained 60% of fire-frequency variance. Fire frequency and fuel flammability, in turn, explained 90% of TBA variance. These results reveal a novel system of scrubland-forest stabilized by vegetation-fire feedbacks. Frequent fires promote the persistence of derelict scrubland through positive vegetation-fire feedbacks; in forest, vegetation-fire feedbacks are negative and suppress fire. Thus, we attribute the decrease in wildfire activity to reforestation programs that concurrently increase forest coverage and foster negative vegetation-fire feedbacks that suppress wildfire.

Revisiting regional and seasonal variations in decadal carbon monoxide variability: Global reversal of growth rate

Carbon monoxide (CO) is one of the important trace gases in the atmosphere capturing the evolution of chemical properties of the troposphere. Here we analyze the growth rates of CO during the period of 1991-2020 using in situ measurements from the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) program. The analysis of trends has been done on different spatial and temporal scales. Our analysis supports the decline in the overall CO mixing ratios over the globe but inter-decadal and regional trend analysis has shown heterogeneous changes in the given period of study. On average, there has been a decrease of -16.22 ± 1.92 ppb and -4.5 ± 0.64 ppb observed at the sites in the northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH), respectively. This decline occurred at rates of -0.80 ± 0.12 ppb yr-1 in the NH and - 0.12 ± 0.03 ppb yr-1 in the SH. Bifurcating the annual trends for seasonal analysis reveals the impact of emissions, chemistry and atmospheric transport on CO variation over different regional clusters of stations. Seasonal trend analysis provides further evidence regarding heterogeneous patterns in the South-East Asia region. Our study highlights a slowdown in CO decline during the 2011-2020 decade when compared to the rate of decrease observed in 2001-2010. This is inferred from the variability and much slower decline of CO emissions across different regions, contributing to a weakening in CO trends.

Is tree planting an effective strategy for climate change mitigation?

The world's forests store large amounts of carbon (C), and growing forests can reduce atmospheric CO2 by storing C in their biomass. This has provided the impetus for world-wide tree planting initiatives to offset fossil-fuel emissions. However, forests interact with their environment in complex and multifaceted ways that must be considered for a balanced assessment of the value of planting trees. First, one needs to consider the potential reversibility of C sequestration in trees through either harvesting or tree death from natural factors. If carbon storage is only temporary, future temperatures will actually be higher than without tree plantings, but cumulative warming will be reduced, contributing both positively and negatively to future climate-change impacts. Alternatively, forests could be used for bioenergy or wood products to replace fossil-fuel use which would obviate the need to consider the possible reversibility of any benefits. Forests also affect the Earth's energy balance through either absorbing or reflecting incoming solar radiation. As forests generally absorb more incoming radiation than bare ground or grasslands, this constitutes an important warming effect that substantially reduces the benefit of C storage, especially in snow-covered regions. Forests also affect other local ecosystem services, such as conserving biodiversity, modifying water and nutrient cycles, and preventing erosion that could be either beneficial or harmful depending on specific circumstances. Considering all these factors, tree plantings may be beneficial or detrimental for mitigating climate-change impacts, but the range of possibilities makes generalisations difficult. Their net benefit depends on many factors that differ between specific circumstances. One can, therefore, neither uncritically endorse tree planting everywhere, nor condemn it as counter-productive. Our aim is to provide key information to enable appropriate assessments to be made under specific circumstances. We conclude our discussion by providing a step-by-step guide for assessing the merit of tree plantings under specific circumstances.

Benzenepoly(carboxylic acid)s as Exclusive Intrinsic Markers to Assess Riverine Export of Dissolved Black Carbon

Landscape fires annually generate large quantities of black carbon. The water-soluble fraction of black carbon (i.e., dissolved black carbon/DBC) is an important constituent of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) pool, playing a crucial role in the global budget of refractory carbon and climate change. A key challenge in constraining the flux and fate of riverine DBC is to develop targeted and accurate quantification methods. Herein, we report that benzenepentacarboxylic acid (B5CA) intrinsically present in DBC can be used as an exclusive and holistic marker (representing both condensed aromatics and less-/nonaromatic fractions) for DBC quantification. B5CA was universally detected in water extractions of biochar and fire-affected soils with relatively large abundance but not produced by nonthermogenic processes. It has good mobility in the environment as it is not readily precipitated by cations or adsorbed by common geosorbents. B5CA also represents the recalcitrant components of DBC with excellent stability against photodegradation and biodegradation. Applying B5CA as the DBC marker in surface waters of the Changjiang River (i.e., the third largest river in the world), we calculate the DBC concentration in the downstream Changjiang River to be 4.8 ± 5.5% of the DOC flux. Our work provides a simple and reliable approach for the accurate quantification and source tracking of DBC in the soil and aquatic carbon pools.

To burn or not to burn: governance of wildfires in Australia

Globally, wildfires are increasing in extent, frequency, and severity. Although global climate change is a major driver and large-scale governance interventions are essential, focusing on governance at smaller scales is of great importance for fostering resilience to wildfires. Inherent tensions in managing wildfire risk are evident at such scales, as objectives and mandates may conflict, and trade-offs and impacts vary across ecosystems and communities. Our study feeds into debates about how to manage wildfire risk to life and property in a way that does not undermine biodiversity and amenity values in social-ecological systems. Here, we describe a case study where features of adaptive governance emerged organically from a dedicated planning process for wildfire governance in Australia. We found that a governance process that is context specific, allows for dialogue about risk, benefits, and trade-offs, and allows for responsibility and risk to be distributed amongst many different actors, can provide the conditions needed to break down rigidity traps that constrain adaptation. The process enabled actors to question whether the default risk management option (in this case, prescribed burning) is aligned with place-based risks and values so they could make an informed choice, built from their participation in the governance process. Ultimately, the community supported a move away from prescribed burning in favor of other wildfire risk management strategies. We found that the emergent governance system has many features of adaptive governance, even though higher level governance has remained resistant to change. Our study offers positive insights for other governments around the world interested in pursuing alternative strategies to confronting wildfire risk.

Pyrogenic Carbon Promotes Anaerobic Oxidation of Methane Coupled with Iron Reduction via the Redox-Cycling Mechanism

Pyrogenic carbon (PC) can mediate electron transfer and thus catalyze biogeochemical processes to impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here, we demonstrate that PC can contribute to mitigating GHG emissions by promoting the Fe(III)-dependent anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM). It was found that the amendment PCs in microcosms dominated by Methanoperedenaceae performing Fe(III)-dependent AOM simultaneously promoted the rate of AOM and Fe(III) reduction with a consistent ratio close to the theoretical stoichiometry of 1:8. Further correlation analysis showed that the AOM rate was linearly correlated with the electron exchange capacity, but not the conductivity, of added PC materials, indicating the redox-cycling electron transfer mechanism to promote the Fe(III)-dependent AOM. The mass content of the C═O moiety from differentially treated PCs was well correlated with the AOM rate, suggesting that surface redox-active quinone groups on PCs contribute to facilitating Fe(III)-dependent AOM. Further microbial analyses indicate that PC likely shuttles direct electron transfer from Methanoperedenaceae to Fe(III) reduction. This study provides new insight into the climate-cooling impact of PCs, and our evaluation indicates that the PC-facilitated Fe(III)-dependent AOM could have a significant contribution to suppressing methane emissions from the world's reservoirs.

Molecular simulation of imperfect structure I CO2 hydrate growth in brine

In order to investigate the viability of carbon dioxide (CO2) storage in seawater, molecular dynamics techniques were employed to study the dynamic evolution of CO2 hydrate in saline water. The simulation was conducted under specific conditions: a temperature of 275 K, a pressure of 10 MPa and a simulated marine environment achieved using a 3.4 wt% sodium chloride (NaCl) solution. The total simulation time was 1000 ns. The results of the simulation indicate that the pre-existence of CO2 hydrate crystals as seeds leads to rapid growth of CO2 hydrate. However, analysis of the F3 and F4 order parameters reveals that the hydrate does not meet the standard values of the perfect structure I (sI) type, confirming the existence of an imperfect structure during the simulation. Additionally, the changes in the number of different phase states of water molecules during the hydrate growth process shows that there are always some liquid water molecules, which means some water molecules fail to form solid water cages. Further investigation suggests that the presence of Na+ and Cl- hampers the hydrogen bonds between water molecules, resulting in incomplete cage structures. By analyzing the density variations in the system, it is observed that CO2 hydrate, with a density of around 1.133 g cm-3, forms rapidly, surpassing the average density of seawater. This density increase facilitates the efficient and swift containment of CO2 on the seabed, thereby supporting the feasibility of the CO2 storage theory.

Acute air pollution and temperature exposure as independent and joint triggers of spontaneous preterm birth in New South Wales, Australia: a time-to-event analysis

Introduction

Exposure to high ambient temperatures and air pollution has been shown to increase the risk of spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB). Less clear are the effects of cold and the joint effects of air pollution and temperature.

Methods

Using a Cox proportional hazard regression model, we assessed the risk of independent and combined short-term exposure to ambient daily mean temperature and PM2.5 associated with sPTB in the last week before delivery on overall sPTB (weeks 23-36) and three subtypes: extremely sPTB, very sPTB, and moderate-to-late sPTB for a birth cohort of 1,318,570 births from Australia (Jan 2001-Dec 2019), while controlling for chronic exposure (i.e., throughout pregnancy except the last week before delivery) to PM2.5 and temperature. The temperature was modeled as a natural cubic spline, PM2.5 as a linear term, and the interaction effect was estimated using a multiplicative term. For short-term exposure to temperature hazard ratios reported are relative to the median temperature (18.1°C).

Results

Hazard ratios at low temperature [5th percentile(11.5°C)] were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.90, 1.00), 1.08 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.4), 0.87 (95% CI: 0.71, 1.06), and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.06) and greater for high temperature [95th percentile (24.5°C)]: 1.22 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.28), 1.27 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.57), and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.5) and 1.05 (1.00, 1.11), respectively, for overall, extremely, very, and moderate-to-late sPTBs. While chronic exposure to PM2.5 had adverse effects on sPTB, short-term exposure to PM2.5 appeared to have a negative association with all types of sPTB, with hazard ratios ranging from 0.86 (95th CI: 0.80, 0.94) to 0.98 (95th CI: 0.97, 1.00) per 5 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5.

Discussion

The risk of sPTB was found to increase following acute exposure to hot and cold ambient temperatures. Earlier sPTB subtypes seemed to be the most vulnerable. This study adds to the evidence that short-term exposure to ambient cold and heat and longer term gestational exposure to ambient PM2.5 are associated with an elevated risk of sPTB.

Asthma and landscape fire smoke: A Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand position statement

Landscape fires are increasing in frequency and severity globally. In Australia, extreme bushfires cause a large and increasing health and socioeconomic burden for communities and governments. People with asthma are particularly vulnerable to the effects of landscape fire smoke (LFS) exposure. Here, we present a position statement from the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand. Within this statement we provide a review of the impact of LFS on adults and children with asthma, highlighting the greater impact of LFS on vulnerable groups, particularly older people, pregnant women and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. We also highlight the development of asthma on the background of risk factors (smoking, occupation and atopy). Within this document we present advice for asthma management, smoke mitigation strategies and access to air quality information, that should be implemented during periods of LFS. We promote clinician awareness, and the implementation of public health messaging and preparation, especially for people with asthma.

Phase Behavior and Viscosity in Biomass Burning Organic Aerosol and Climatic Impacts

Smoke particles generated by burning biomass consist mainly of organic aerosol termed biomass burning organic aerosol (BBOA). BBOA influences the climate by scattering and absorbing solar radiation or acting as nuclei for cloud formation. The viscosity and the phase behavior (i.e., the number and type of phases present in a particle) are properties of BBOA that are expected to impact several climate-relevant processes but remain highly uncertain. We studied the phase behavior of BBOA using fluorescence microscopy and showed that BBOA particles comprise two organic phases (a hydrophobic and a hydrophilic phase) across a wide range of atmospheric relative humidity (RH). We determined the viscosity of the two phases at room temperature using a photobleaching method and showed that the two phases possess different RH-dependent viscosities. The viscosity of the hydrophobic phase is largely independent of the RH from 0 to 95%. We use the Vogel-Fulcher-Tamman equation to extrapolate our results to colder and warmer temperatures, and based on the extrapolation, the hydrophobic phase is predicted to be glassy (viscosity >1012 Pa s) for temperatures less than 230 K and RHs below 95%, with possible implications for heterogeneous reaction kinetics and cloud formation in the atmosphere. Using a kinetic multilayer model (KM-GAP), we investigated the effect of two phases on the atmospheric lifetime of brown carbon within BBOA, which is a climate-warming agent. We showed that the presence of two phases can increase the lifetime of brown carbon in the planetary boundary layer and polar regions compared to previous modeling studies. Hence, the presence of two phases can lead to an increase in the predicted warming effect of BBOA on the climate.

Somatic symptoms, psychological distress and trauma after disasters: lessons from the 2014 Hazelwood mine fire and 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires

BACKGROUND

Wildfires cause significant physical and mental ill-health. How physical and mental symptoms interact following wildfire smoke exposure is unclear, particularly in the context of repeated exposures. In this cross-sectional study we investigated how posttraumatic stress and general psychological distress associated with somatic symptoms in a community exposed to multiple smoke events.

METHODS

A random weighted sample of 709 adults exposed to smoke during the 2014 Hazelwood coal mine fire in south-eastern Australia completed a survey in 2020. The survey coincided with the Black Summer wildfires that caused a similar period of smoke haze in the region. Participants self-reported somatic symptoms (PHQ-15) and mine fire-related posttraumatic stress (IES-R) experienced over the previous week, general psychological distress (K10) experienced over the previous four weeks, lifetime health diagnoses and demographic information. Associations between posttraumatic stress, general psychological distress, and each PHQ-15 somatic symptom were analysed using ordinal logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Overall, 36.2% of participants reported moderate- or high-level somatic symptomology. The most frequent somatic symptoms were fatigue, limb pain, trouble sleeping, back pain, headaches, and shortness of breath. After controlling for confounding factors, general psychological distress and posttraumatic stress were independently associated with all somatic symptoms (except menstrual problems in females for posttraumatic stress).

CONCLUSIONS

Results highlight the high prevalence of somatic symptoms and their association with general psychological distress and posttraumatic stress within a community in the midst of a second large-scale smoke event. It is essential that healthcare providers and public health authorities consider the interconnections of these conditions when supporting communities affected by climate-related disasters.

Taming the flame, from local to global extreme wildfires

Australia rethinks strategies after 2019 to 2020 bushfires.

Wildfire national carbon accounting: how natural and anthropogenic landscape fires emissions are treated in the 2020 Australian government greenhouse gas accounts report to the UNFCCC

Greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting of emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry necessarily involves consideration of landscape fire. This is of particular importance for Australia given that natural and human fire is a common occurrence, and many ecosystems are adapted to fire, and require periodic burning for plant regeneration and ecological health. Landscape fire takes many forms, can be started by humans or by lightning, and can be managed or uncontrolled. We briefly review the underlying logic of greenhouse gas accounting involving landscape fire in the 2020 Australian Government GHG inventory report. The treatment of wildfire that Australia chooses to enact under the internationally agreed guidelines is based on two core assumptions (a) that effects of natural and anthropogenic fire in Australian vegetation carbon stocks are transient and they return to the pre-fire level relatively quickly, and (b) that historically and geographically anomalous wildfires in forests should be excluded from national anthropogenic emission estimates because they are beyond human control. It is now widely accepted that anthropogenic climate change is contributing to increased frequency and severity of forest fires in Australia, therefore challenging assumptions about the human agency in fire-related GHG emissions and carbon balance. Currently, the national inventory focuses on forest fires; we suggest national greenhouse gas accounting needs to provide a more detailed reporting of vegetation fires including: (a) more detailed mapping of fire severity patterns; (b) more comprehensive emission factors; (c) better growth and recovery models from different vegetation types; (d) improved understanding how fires of different severities affect carbon stocks; and (e) improved analysis of the human agency behind the causes of emissions, including ignition types and fire-weather conditions. This more comprehensive accounting of carbon emissions would provide greater incentives to improve fire management practices that reduce the frequency, severity, and extent of uncontrolled landscape fires.

Perceived impacts of COVID-19 and bushfires on the implementation of an obesity prevention trial in Northeast Victoria, Australia

BACKGROUND

Calls for the adoption of a systems approach to chronic disease prevention date back at least ten years because of the potential to empower communities to identify and address the complex causes of overnutrition, undernutrition and climate change. Australia, like many countries, has high levels of obesity and extreme climate events. The Reflexive Evidence and Systems interventions to Prevent Obesity and Non-communicable Disease (RESPOND) trial aims to prevent unhealthy weight gain in children in 10 intervention and two pilot communities in north-east Victoria, Australia using community-based participatory approaches informed by systems science. Intervention activities co-designed in 2019 were disrupted by COVID-19 and bushfires. This paper explores the impacts of these 'shocks' on the local prevention workforce to implement actions within communities.

METHODS

A case study design involving one-hour online focus groups and an on-line survey (November 2021-February 2022). Purposive sampling was used to achieve diverse representation from RESPOND stakeholders including local council, health services, primary care partnerships and department of health. The focus group interview schedule and survey questions were based on Durlak and DuPre's implementation factors.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine participants from seven different communities participated in at least one of nine focus groups to discuss the impacts of COVID-19 and bushfires on localised implementation. Twenty-eight participants (97% of focus group sample) also completed the on-line survey. Implementation of RESPOND stalled or stopped in most communities due to bushfires and/or COVID-19. These shocks resulted in organisational priorities changing, loss of momentum for implementation, redeployment of human resources, culminating in fatigue and exhaustion. Participants reported adaptation of RESPOND, but implementation was slowed due to limited resources.

CONCLUSION

Further research is needed to advance risk management strategies and protect resources within health promotion. System shocks such as bushfires and COVID-19 are inevitable, and despite multiple adaptation opportunities, this intervention approach was not 'shock proof'.

Litter accumulation and fire risks show direct and indirect climate-dependence at continental scale

Litter decomposition / accumulation are rate limiting steps in soil formation, carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling and fire risk in temperate forests, highlighting the importance of robust predictive models at all geographic scales. Using a data set for the Australian continent, we show that among a range of models, >60% of the variance in litter mass over a 40-year time span can be accounted for by a parsimonious model with elapsed time, and indices of aridity and litter quality, as independent drivers. Aridity is an important driver of variation across large geographic and climatic ranges while litter quality shows emergent properties of climate-dependence. Up to 90% of variance in litter mass for individual forest types can be explained using models of identical structure. Results provide guidance for future decomposition studies. Algorithms reported here can significantly improve accuracy and reliability of predictions of carbon and nutrient dynamics and fire risk.

Contaminant pulse following wildfire is associated with shifts in estuarine benthic communities

Novel combinations of climatic conditions due to climate change and prolonged fire seasons have contributed to an increased occurrence of "megafires". Such large-scale fires pose an unknown threat to biodiversity due to the increased extent and severity of burn. Assessments of wildfires often focus on terrestrial ecosystems and effects on aquatic habitats are less documented, particularly in coastal environments. In a novel application of eDNA techniques, we assessed the impacts of the 2019-2020 Australian wildfires on the diversity of estuarine benthic sediment communities in six estuaries in NSW, Australia, before and after the fires. Estuaries differed in area of catchment burnt (0-92%) and amount of vegetative buffer that remained post-fire between burnt areas and waterways. We found greater dissimilarities in the composition and abundance of eukaryotic and bacterial sediment communities in estuaries from burnt catchments with no buffer compared to those with an intact buffer or from unburnt catchments. Shifts in composition in highly burnt catchments were associated with increased concentrations of nutrients, carbon, including fire-derived pyrogenic carbon, and copper, which was representative of multiple highly correlated trace metals. Changes in the relative abundances of certain taxonomic groups, such as sulfate-reducing and nitrifying bacterial groups, in the most impacted estuaries indicate potential consequences for the functioning of sediment communities. These results provide a unique demonstration of the use of eDNA to identify wildfire impacts on ecological communities and emphasize the importance of vegetative buffers in limiting wildfire-associated impacts.

The perfect storm: temporal analysis of air during the world's most deadly epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETSA) event in Melbourne

BACKGROUND

There have been 26 epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETSA) events worldwide, with Melbourne at the epicentre of ETSA with 7 recorded events, and in 2016 experienced the deadliest ETSA event ever recorded. Health services and emergency departments were overwhelmed with thousands requiring medical care for acute asthma and 10 people died.

OBJECTIVES

This multidisciplinary study was conducted across various health and science departments with the aim of improving our collective understanding of the mechanism behind ETSA.

DESIGN

This study involved time-resolved analysis of atmospheric sampling of the air for pollen and fungal spores, and intact and ruptured pollen compared with different weather parameters, pollution levels and clinical asthma presentations.

METHODS

Time-resolved pollen and fungal spore data collected by Deakin AirWATCH Burwood, underwent 3-h analysis, to better reflect the 'before', 'during' and 'after' ETSA time points, on the days leading up to and following the Melbourne 2016 event. Linear correlations were conducted with atmospheric pollution data provided by the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) of Victoria, weather data sourced from Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and clinical asthma presentation data from the Victorian Agency for Health Information (VAHI) of Department of Health.

RESULTS

Counts of ruptured grass pollen grains increased 250% when the thunderstorm outflow reached Burwood. Increased PM10, high relative humidity, decreased temperature and low ozone concentrations observed in the storm outflow were correlated with increased levels of ruptured grass pollen. In particular, high ozone levels observed 6 h prior to this ETSA event may be a critical early indicator of impending ETSA event, since high ozone levels have been linked to increasing pollen allergen content and reducing pollen integrity, which may in turn contribute to enhanced pollen rupture.

CONCLUSION

The findings presented in this article highlight the importance of including ruptured pollen and time-resolved analysis to forecast ETSA events and thus save lives.

Tree mortality and carbon emission as a function of wildfire severity in south-eastern Australian temperate forests

Disturbance trends over recent decades indicate that climate change is resulting in increased fire severity and extent in Australia's temperate Eucalyptus forests. As disturbance cycles become shorter and more severe, empirical measurements are required to identify potential change in forest carbon (C) stock and emissions. However, such estimates are rare in the literature. The 2019-2020 wildfires burnt through 6 to 7 million ha of mainly temperate open Eucalyptus forest in south-east Australia, with top down emission estimates ranging from 97 to 130 tonnes CO₂ ha^-1. Study sites that had been assessed for all aboveground C pools prior to the wildfires, were burnt in January 2020 by wildfire that varied in severity. Here we quantify the impact of high and low/moderate fire severities on tree mortality, C loss and C redistribution and assess implications for future C storage in these temperate Eucalyptus forests. Higher fire severity resulted in greater overstorey tree mortality but not understorey or loss of dead standing trees than in low/moderate severity fires. High severity fires combusted almost twice as much C from live trees (42 Mg C ha^-1) as low/moderate severity fires (25 Mg C ha^-1), while C loss from dead standing trees was similar among fire severity classes (average 17 Mg C ha^-1). Total aboveground C lost across study sites was 42 Mg C ha^-1 for high and 47 Mg C ha^-1 for low/moderate severity, with an average of 45 Mg C ha^-1 equivalent to 15 % (high severity) and 14 % (low/moderate severity) of AGC. Extrapolating our findings to other tall to medium open Eucalyptus forests across Victoria revealed that 37.33 ± 12.25 Tg C (mean ± s.e.) or 152 ± 50 Mg CO₂ ha^-1 was lost to the atmosphere from the 0.9 million ha of these productive forests, equating to about 20 % of Australia's total net annual emissions.

Long-term hydrological response emerges from forest self-thinning behaviour and tree sapwood allometry

Fires in forested catchments are of great concern to catchment managers due to their potential effect on water yield. Among other factors such as meteorological conditions and topography, dominant vegetation and its regeneration traits can play a key role in controlling the variability in the type and recovery-time of the hydrological response between forested catchments after stand-replacing fires. In temperate South-Eastern Australia, a long-term reduction in streamflow from catchments dominated by regenerating tall-wet Eucalyptus obligate seeder forests was observed, which has substantial implications for Melbourne's water supply. While the unusual hydrological response has been attributed to the higher water-use of the regrowth forests, the dominant underlying mechanism has not yet been identified. Here we show analytically and with a closed-form solution that this streamflow pattern can emerge from forest dynamics, namely the combination of growth and tree mortality as constrained by the self-thinning line (STL) and sapwood allometry of the dominant overstory tree species under non-limiting rainfall regimes. A sensitivity analysis shows that observed variations in the relative streamflow anomaly trend can be explained by parameters controlling: (i) the shape of the STL; (ii) regeneration success; (iii) radial tree growth rate; and (iv) fire severity. We conclude that the observed variation in long-term post-disturbance streamflow behaviour might have resulted from different trajectories of forest dynamics and suggest that to minimize uncertainty in future water-balance predictions, eco-hydrological models for even aged forests include a mechanistic representation of stand demography processes that are constrained by forest inventory data.

Extensive range contraction predicted under climate warming for two endangered mountaintop frogs from the rainforests of subtropical Australia

Montane ecosystems cover approximately 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface and are centres of endemism. Globally, anthropogenic climate change is driving population declines and local extinctions across multiple montane taxa, including amphibians. We applied the maximum entropy approach to predict the impacts of climate change on the distribution of two poorly known amphibian species (Philoria kundagungan and Philoria richmondensis) endemic to the subtropical uplands of the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia, World Heritage Area (GRAWHA). Firstly, under current climate conditions and also future (2055) low and high warming scenarios. We validated current distribution models against models developed using presence-absence field data. Our models were highly concordant with known distributions and predicted the current distribution of P. kundagungan to contract by 64% under the low warming scenario and by 91% under the high warming scenario and that P. richmondensis would contract by 50% and 85%, respectively. With large areas of habitat already impacted by wildfires, conservation efforts for both these species need to be initiated urgently. We propose several options, including establishing ex-situ insurance populations increasing the long-term viability of both species in the wild through conservation translocations.

Sleep, Workload, and Stress in Aerial Firefighting Crews

BACKGROUND:The challenges of climate change and increasing frequency of severe weather conditions has demanded innovative approaches to wildfire suppression. Australia’s wildfire management includes an expanding aviation program, providing both fixed and rotary wing aerial platforms for reconnaissance, incident management, and quick response aerial fire suppression. These operations have typically been limited to day visual flight rules operations, but recently trials have been undertaken extending the window of operations into the night, with the assistance of night vision systems. Already a demanding job, night aerial firefighting operations have the potential to place even greater physical and mental demands on crewmembers. This study was designed to investigate sleep, fatigue, and performance outcomes in Australian aerial firefighting crews.METHODS:A total of nine subjects undertook a 21-d protocol, completing a sleep and duty diary including ratings of fatigue and workload. Salivary cortisol was collected daily, with additional samples provided before and after each flight, and heart rate variability was monitored during flight. Actigraphy was also used to objectively measure sleep during the data collection period.RESULTS:Descriptive findings suggest that subjects generally obtained >7 h sleep prior to flights, but cortisol levels and self-reported fatigue increased postflight. Furthermore, the greatest reported workload was associated with the domains of ‘performance’ and ‘mental demand’ during flights.DISCUSSION:Future research is necessary to understand the impact of active wildfire response on sleep, stress, and workload on aerial firefighting crews.Sprajcer M, Roberts S, Aisbett B, Ferguson S, Demasi D, Shriane A, Thomas MJW. Sleep, workload, and stress in aerial firefighting crews. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2022; 93(10):749–754.

The hospitalisations for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, and emergency department presentations and economic burden of bushfires in Australia between 2021 and 2030: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

The health and environmental impacts of bushfires results in substantial economic costs to society. The present analysis sought to estimate the burden of bushfires in Australia over ten years from 2021 to 2030 inclusive.

METHODS

A dynamic model with yearly cycles was constructed to simulate follow-up of the entire Australian population from 2021 to 2030, capturing deaths and years of life lived. Estimated numbers of bushfire-related-deaths, costs of related-hospitalisations, and broader economic costs were derived from published sources. A 5% annual discount rate was applied to all costs incurred and life years lived from 2022 onwards.

RESULTS

Over the ten years from 2021 to 2030, the modelled analysis predicted that 2418 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2412 - 2422] lives would be lost to bushfires, as well as 8590 [95% CI 8573 - 8606] years of life lost (discounted). Healthcare costs arising from deaths for smoke-related conditions, hospitalisations amounted to AUD $110 million [95% CI 91-129 million] (discounted). The impact on gross domestic product (GDP) totalled AUD $17.2 billion. A hypothetical intervention that reduces the impact of bushfires by 10% would save $11 million in healthcare costs and $1.7 billion in GDP.

CONCLUSIONS

The health and economic burden of bushfires in Australia looms large during 2021 and 2030. This underscores the importance of actions to mitigate bushfire risk. The findings are useful for the future design and delivery and help policy makers to make informed decisions about investment in strategies to reduce the incidence and severity of future bushfires.

Rate of atmospheric brown carbon whitening governed by environmental conditions

Biomass burning organic aerosol (BBOA) in the atmosphere contains many compounds that absorb solar radiation, called brown carbon (BrC). While BBOA is in the atmosphere, BrC can undergo reactions with oxidants such as ozone which decrease absorbance, or whiten. The effect of temperature and relative humidity (RH) on whitening has not been well constrained, leading to uncertainties when predicting the direct radiative effect of BrC on climate. Using an aerosol flow-tube reactor, we show that the whitening of BBOA by oxidation with ozone is strongly dependent on RH and temperature. Using a poke-flow technique, we show that the viscosity of BBOA also depends strongly on these conditions. The measured whitening rate of BrC is described well with the viscosity data, assuming that the whitening is due to oxidation occurring in the bulk of the BBOA, within a thin shell beneath the surface. Using our combined datasets, we developed a kinetic model of this whitening process, and we show that the lifetime of BrC is 1 d or less below ∼1 km in altitude in the atmosphere but is often much longer than 1 d above this altitude. Including this altitude dependence of the whitening rate in a chemical transport model causes a large change in the predicted warming effect of BBOA on climate. Overall, the results illustrate that RH and temperature need to be considered to understand the role of BBOA in the atmosphere.

Climate change-associated multifactorial stress combination: A present challenge for our ecosystems

Humans negatively influence Earth ecosystems and biodiversity causing global warming, climate change as well as man-made pollution. Recently, the number of different stress factors have increased, and when impacting simultaneously, the multiple stress conditions cause dramatic declines in plant and ecosystem health. Although much is known about how plants and ecosystems are affected by each individual stress, recent research efforts have diverted into how these biological systems respond to several of these stress conditions applied together. Studies of such "multifactorial stress combination" concept have reported a severe decrease in plant survival and microbiome biodiversity along the increasing number of factors in a consistent directional trend. In addition, these results are in concert with studies about how ecosystems and microbiota are affected by natural conditions imposed by climate change. Therefore, all this evidence should serve as an important warning in order to decrease pollutants, create strategies to deal with global warming, and increase the tolerance of plants to multiple stressful factors in combination. Here we review recent studies focused on the impact of abiotic stresses on plants, agrosystems and different ecosystems including forests and microecosystems. In addition, different strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change in ecosystems are discussed.

The fuel-climate-fire conundrum: How will fire regimes change in temperate eucalypt forests under climate change?

Fire regimes are changing across the globe in response to complex interactions between climate, fuel, and fire across space and time. Despite these complex interactions, research into predicting fire regime change is often unidimensional, typically focusing on direct relationships between fire activity and climate, increasing the chances of erroneous fire predictions that have ignored feedbacks with, for example, fuel loads and availability. Here, we quantify the direct and indirect role of climate on fire regime change in eucalypt dominated landscapes using a novel simulation approach that uses a landscape fire modelling framework to simulate fire regimes over decades to centuries. We estimated the relative roles of climate-mediated changes as both direct effects on fire weather and indirect effects on fuel load and structure in a full factorial simulation experiment (present and future weather, present and future fuel) that included six climate ensemble members. We applied this simulation framework to predict changes in fire regimes across six temperate forested landscapes in south-eastern Australia that encompass a broad continuum from climate-limited to fuel-limited. Climate-mediated change in weather and fuel was predicted to intensify fire regimes in all six landscapes by increasing wildfire extent and intensity and decreasing fire interval, potentially led by an earlier start to the fire season. Future weather was the dominant factor influencing changes in all the tested fire regime attributes: area burnt, area burnt at high intensity, fire interval, high-intensity fire interval, and season midpoint. However, effects of future fuel acted synergistically or antagonistically with future weather depending on the landscape and the fire regime attribute. Our results suggest that fire regimes are likely to shift across temperate ecosystems in south-eastern Australia in coming decades, particularly in climate-limited systems where there is the potential for a greater availability of fuels to burn through increased aridity.

The 2019-2020 Australian forest fires are a harbinger of decreased prescribed burning effectiveness under rising extreme conditions

There is an imperative for fire agencies to quantify the potential for prescribed burning to mitigate risk to life, property and environmental values while facing changing climates. The 2019-2020 Black Summer fires in eastern Australia raised questions about the effectiveness of prescribed burning in mitigating risk under unprecedented fire conditions. We performed a simulation experiment to test the effects of different rates of prescribed burning treatment on risks posed by wildfire to life, property and infrastructure. In four forested case study landscapes, we found that the risks posed by wildfire were substantially higher under the fire weather conditions of the 2019-2020 season, compared to the full range of long-term historic weather conditions. For area burnt and house loss, the 2019-2020 conditions resulted in more than a doubling of residual risk across the four landscapes, regardless of treatment rate (mean increase of 230%, range 164-360%). Fire managers must prepare for a higher level of residual risk as climate change increases the likelihood of similar or even more dangerous fire seasons.

Drought, megafires and flood - climate extreme impacts on catchment-scale river water quality on Australia's east coast

Increased frequency and intensity of drought, wildfires and flooding due to climate change has major implications for river water quality, yet there are limited high-temporal resolution data capturing the combined transient impacts of these extreme events at large catchment scales. We present flow-stratified water quality data from a large coastal catchment (Macleay River, Australia) spanning severe drought and extensive fires followed by flooding. We examine concentrations (C), discharge (Q) and flux of suspended sediment, major ions, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and key nutrients (NO₃ and PO₄), with a focus on the critical first-flush period after the fires. Highly elevated suspended sediment (∼5500 mg L^-1; >100x median pre-fire levels) during the initial post-fire period reflected enhanced erosion from fire-impacted, high-relief landscapes, with peak monthly suspended sediment loads of ∼1.1-3.7 t ha^-1. The greatest sensitivity to erosion was during initial flow events following fire, highlighting the compounding effect of sequential extreme events on sediment transport. Maximum solute concentrations typically occurred during the first hydrograph peak post-fire with significantly (P = 0.01) elevated major ions following the order of K>Ca>SO₄>HCO₃≈Mg>Cl>Na, broadly reflecting the composition of ash materials. Distorted CQ relationships for major ions, DOC and nutrients indicated mobilisation behaviour and enhanced surface runoff during initial hydrograph peaks post-fire, with mean concentrations and CQ relationships progressively shifting to those approximating pre-fire within ∼3-12 months. Elevated DOC (∼7x; P = 0.01) displays distinct changes in fluorescence excitation-emission matrix spectral characteristics, attributable to both fire and drought. Both NO₃N (160 μM) and PO₄ (7.5 μM) were significantly elevated after the fires (∼15-22x; P = 0.01), with maximum monthly loads of 0.82 and 0.14 kg ha^-1 respectively. Fast biogeochemical cycling of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) species occurred during initial flow events following fire, with NH₄N initially dominant (>80% of DIN) and exceeding ecosystem guideline threshold values (>100 μM NH₄N), followed by rapid (∼1 week) nitrification. The extreme dynamism and transience of water quality parameters highlights the critical importance of high-frequency sampling to adequately capture the compound impacts drought, fires and floods on aquatic systems.

Carbon dioxide and particulate emissions from the 2013 Tasmanian firestorm: implications for Australian carbon accounting

BACKGROUND

Uncontrolled wildfires in Australian temperate Eucalyptus forests produce significant smoke emissions, particularly carbon dioxide (CO₂) and particulates. Emissions from fires in these ecosystems, however, have received less research attention than the fires in North American conifer forests or frequently burned Australian tropical savannas. Here, we use the 2013 Forcett-Dunalley fire that caused the first recorded pyrocumulonimbus event in Tasmania, to understand CO₂ and particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions from a severe Eucalyptus forest fire. We investigate the spatial patterns of the two emissions using a fine scale mapping of vegetation and fire severity (50 m resolution), and utilising available emission factors suitable for Australian vegetation types. We compare the results with coarse-scale (28 km resolution) emissions estimates from Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) to determine the reliability of the global model in emissions estimation.

RESULTS

The fine scale inventory yielded total CO₂ emission of 1.125 ± 0.232 Tg and PM_2.5 emission of 0.022 ± 0.006 Tg, representing a loss of 56 t CO₂ ha^-1 and 1 t PM_2.5 ha^-1. The CO₂ emissions were comparable to GFED estimates, but GFED PM_2.5 estimates were lower by a factor of three. This study highlights the reliability of GFED for CO₂ but not PM_2.5 for estimating emissions from Eucalyptus forest fires. Our fine scale and GFED estimates showed that the Forcett-Dunalley fire produced 30% of 2013 fire carbon emissions in Tasmania, and 26-36% of mean annual fire emissions for the State, representing a significant single source of emissions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses highlight the need for improved PM_2.5 emission factors specific to Australian vegetation, and better characterisation of fuel loads, particularly coarse fuel loads, to quantify wildfire particulate and greenhouse gas emissions more accurately. Current Australian carbon accountancy approach of excluding large wildfires from final GHG accounts likely exaggerates Tasmania's claim to carbon neutrality; we therefore recommend that planned and unplanned emissions are included in the final national and state greenhouse gas accounting to international conventions. Advancing these issues is important given the trajectory of more frequent large fires driven by anthropogenic climate change.

Impacts of Climate Alteration on the Hydrology of the Yarra River Catchment, Australia Using GCMs and SWAT Model

A rigorous evaluation of future hydro-climatic changes is necessary for developing climate adaptation strategies for a catchment. The integration of future climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) in the simulations of a hydrologic model, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is widely considered as one of the most dependable approaches to assess the impacts of climate alteration on hydrology. The main objective of this study was to assess the potential impacts of climate alteration on the hydrology of the Yarra River catchment in Victoria, Australia, using the SWAT model. The climate projections from five GCMs under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios—RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for 2030 and 2050, respectively—were incorporated into the calibrated SWAT model for the analysis of future hydrologic behaviour against a baseline period of 1990–2008. The SWAT model performed well in its simulation of total streamflow, baseflow, and runoff, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values of more than 0.75 for monthly calibration and validation. Based on the projections from the GCMs, the future rainfall and temperature are expected to decrease and increase, respectively, with the highest changes projected by the GFDL-ESM2M model under the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050. These changes correspond to significant increases in annual evapotranspiration (8% to 46%) and decreases in other annual water cycle components, especially surface runoff (79% to 93%). Overall, the future climate projections indicate that the study area will become hotter, with less winter–spring (June to November) rainfall and with more water shortages within the catchment.

Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change

Fire activity in Australia is strongly affected by high inter-annual climate variability and extremes. Through changes in the climate, anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter fire dynamics. Here we compile satellite (19 and 32 years) and ground-based (90 years) burned area datasets, climate and weather observations, and simulated fuel loads for Australian forests. Burned area in Australia's forests shows a linear positive annual trend but an exponential increase during autumn and winter. The mean number of years since the last fire has decreased consecutively in each of the past four decades, while the frequency of forest megafire years (>1 Mha burned) has markedly increased since 2000. The increase in forest burned area is consistent with increasingly more dangerous fire weather conditions, increased risk factors associated with pyroconvection, including fire-generated thunderstorms, and increased ignitions from dry lightning, all associated to varying degrees with anthropogenic climate change.