Drivers of global mangrove loss and gain in social-ecological systems

Profiling of mangrove forest dynamics in the Fly River delta, Papua New Guinea

Mangrove forests (MFs), as vital ecosystems in tropical and subtropical coastal regions, play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. However, MFs are currently facing unprecedented risks of degradation due to both natural and anthropogenic factors. Here, using 477 remote sensing data from Landsat TM, ETM, and OLI series of satellites, the dynamic alterations of MFs in the Fly River Delta (FRD) of Papua New Guinea were analyzed by the Random Forest method. The Random Forest model in this study achieved an overall accuracy of 97 % and a kappa coefficient of 0.96, ensuring high-precision classification. The results indicate a total decrease of 33.83 %, with the mangrove area in the FRD declining from 81,979.2 ha in 1988 to 54,247.73 ha in 2023. Meanwhile, the delta coastal region experienced significant degradation, with a 54.71 % reduction over the 36-year period, while the delta island region exhibited a slower decline of only 2.05 % during the same timeframe. Moreover, seaward expansion of 1309.32 ha was observed in the easternmost islands of the delta island region, localized areas of the eastern shoreline, and river channels of the delta coastal region, partially offsetting the landward losses. Deforestation and the expansion of aquaculture ponds are significant contributors to the degradation of mangroves in the FRD. Although fluvial suspended sediment discharge delivered into the estuary promote mangrove growth, southeast waves are the primary cause of shoreline retreat, surpassing the effects of local sea level rise. Nevertheless, strong tidal currents transport sediments into the tidal channels of the delta, filling them and creating suitable habitats for local mangrove growth in the delta coastal region. These findings offer important insights into the factors influencing mangrove dynamics and could inform necessary management strategies for global mangrove restoration efforts.

Out of the blue carbon box: toward investable blue natural capital

In 2019, we found that the concept of blue carbon had begun to solidify in the preceding decade around activities that could achieve mitigation through conservation and restoration and on ecosystems with high levels of data. Five years later, the available data have increased, and so too have the ecosystems that are included in national carbon markets and carbon market methodologies (e.g. seaweed and supratidal forests). While the implementation of blue carbon strategies continues to advance in both the carbon and emerging biodiversity markets, the scale of investment is inadequate for the action needed to meet global targets of the Paris Agreement and Kunming-Global Biodiversity Framework. The developing finance mechanisms for investment in blue natural capital offer additional potential for action on conservation and restoration of blue carbon ecosystems at large scales, although governance systems are challenged to deliver just and equitable outcomes. Blue carbon research and implementation is characterized by deep collaboration among diverse disciplines and actors, which continues to be crucial to achieving conservation and restoration goals.

Emerging challenges in aquaculture: Current perspectives and human health implications

Aquaculture, the cultivation of aquatic organisms for human consumption, has become an essential contributor to global food security. However, it faces numerous challenges that threaten its sustainability and capacity to meet the growing demand for animal protein. This review investigates these challenges, with a particular focus on environmental degradation, public health risks, and ethical dilemmas posed by genetic interventions in fish breeding. Despite the promise of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in enhancing fish production, their integration into aquaculture remains controversial due to potential risks and unresolved ethical questions. This study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of these pressing issues and propose pathways for sustainable aquaculture development. With the global population increasing and the demand for animal protein intensifying, aquaculture holds great potential as a sustainable food source. However, its contribution to global protein demand remains minimal, projected to decline to as low as 4% in the coming decades. Furthermore, aquaculture's environmental impact, including pollution of water bodies and ecosystem disruption, poses serious threats to biodiversity and public health. Addressing these challenges is critical for ensuring the long-term viability of aquaculture. By exploring the intersection of sustainability, ethics, and innovation, this review provides valuable insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers seeking to advance sustainable aquaculture practices. This study aims to evaluate the current state of aquaculture and identify key challenges related to environmental sustainability, public health, and ethical considerations. It seeks to explore the potential of sustainable practices and genetic interventions to address these challenges while balancing the need for increased production and societal acceptance. The ultimate goal is to offer practical recommendations for fostering a resilient and ethical aquaculture industry capable of meeting future global food demands.

Drivers of mangrove area change and suppression in Brazil from 2000 to 2020

Mangrove area loss is increasing globally, and drivers of loss differ depending not only on natural conditions but also on national and regional policies. Some countries with the most mangrove area, for instance, Brazil, lack broad systematic quantification of specific drivers of mangrove land-use and land-cover (LULC) change dynamics. We investigated the direct conversion (i.e., replacement) of mangrove forests due to changes in 21 types of LULC across Brazil from 2000 to 2020 based on annual LULC maps developed by the MapBiomas project. We quantified the area changes at national, regional, and state scales. We also determined and quantified mangrove forest conversion for each of the 21 LULC types with a pixel comparison analysis and identified temporal trends with a time-series analysis. The total conversion of mangrove area (3429 km2) was offset by a gain that was twice as large (6776 km2). Forest formations and water bodies, which may be interpreted as natural or indirect anthropogenic changes, were associated with most of the areas where mangrove cover was lost. Land-use modifications, mainly creation of pastures, accounted for 4% of direct mangrove conversions. We found that changes in LULC categories and patterns of gain and loss of mangrove areas differed among Brazilian states and regions. Based on other research, they also differ between Brazil and other countries. Thus, integrated mangrove forest conservation and management efforts that transcend political boundaries are essential to effectively address negative impacts on mangrove forests. We provide an interactive map to allow qualitative assessments of mangrove conversion drivers by different stakeholders, such as managers, policymakers, and nongovernmental organizations.

Distribution, ecological risk, and sediment-influencing mechanisms of heavy metals in surface sediments along the intertidal gradient in typical mangroves in Hainan, China

The relative importance of each sediment physicochemical property to sediment heavy-metal (HM) contents has not yet been quantitatively evaluated. Differences in the HM contents of mangrove surface sediments among the high, middle, and low intertidal zones, and their quantitative relationships to sediment physicochemical properties, were investigated in Dongzhaigang and Qinglan Harbor reserves, Hainan, China. In both reserves, the Cu and Ni concentrations increased significantly from the low to high intertidal zones; the patterns of change in the Mn and Pb contents were opposite in the two reserves. The Cr concentration was significantly lower and the Pb concentration was significantly higher in the dry season than in the wet season. Ecological risks of HM were higher in Dongzhaigang than in Qinglan Harbor. Regression and redundancy (hierarchical partitioning) analyses showed that the sediment total sulfur, nitrogen and potassium contents and pH were key factors affecting the HM contents of mangrove surface sediments.

Relationship of litterfall anomalies with climatic anomalies in a mangrove swamp of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Among the set of phenological traits featuring mangrove ecosystems, litterfall production stands out with marked intra-annual and longer-term variation. Furthermore, mangrove forests resilience is one of the most important ecological attribute, reconciling the juxtaposed terrestrial and marine environment such transitional systems occupy. However, world's mangroves are nowadays facing recurrent climatic events, reflected in anomalies depicted by major drivers, including temperature and precipitation. This physical-environmental setting may either constrain or favor overall forest productivity. A combination of time series analysis (spectral density and cross-correlation techniques) and statistical model fitting (General additive model) was implemented to explore trends in total litterfall of a well-developed mangrove forest in southeastern Gulf of Mexico (Celestun Lagoon, SE Mexico) and potential association with the varying behavior of temperature (°C) and precipitation (mm month-1), highlighting their anomalies. The results are consistent with a synchronous response between litterfall production and climatic variables (mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation). Concurrent peak litterfall production in Celestun lagoon with high temperatures and precipitation occurred during June and October, featuring a two-month time lag for the response time. More than half of the litterfall anomalies (53.5%) could be reflecting either multiple sources of climatic anomalies (maximum, minimum, and monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation) or single point events (cyclone landfall). This relationship dynamics showed an interannual persistence (1999-2010). The structure portrayed by the litterfall time-series was not unequivocally related to climatic anomalies. Arguably, climatic anomalies behave with different intensities and even may exhibit complex interactions among them. The study of anomalies provides a baseline for a better grasp of: i) mangrove anomalies responses and ii) their vulnerability to these extremes.

Ecotourism and mangrove conservation in Southeast Asia: Current trends and perspectives

Mangroves in Southeast Asia provide numerous supporting, provisioning, regulating, and cultural services that are crucial to the environment and local livelihoods since they support biodiversity conservation and climate change resilience. However, Southeast Asia mangroves face deforestation threats from the expansion of commercial aquaculture, agriculture, and urban development, along with climate change-related natural processes. Ecotourism has gained prominence as a financial incentive tool to support mangrove conservation and restoration. Through a systematic literature review approach, we examined the relationships between ecotourism and mangrove conservation in Southeast Asia based on scientific papers published from 2010 to 2022. Most of the studies were reported in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, respectively, which were associated with the highest number of vibrant mangrove ecotourism sites and largest mangrove areas compared to the other countries of Southeast Asia. Mangrove-related ecotourism activities in the above countries mainly include boat tours, bird and wildlife watching, mangrove planting, kayaking, eating seafood, and snorkeling. The economic benefits, such as an increase in income associated with mangrove ecotourism, have stimulated infrastructural development in ecotourism destinations. Local communities benefited from increased access to social amenities such as clean water, electricity, transportation networks, schools, and health services that are intended to make destinations more attractive to tourists. Economic benefits from mangrove ecotourism motivated the implementation of several community-based mangrove conservation and restoration initiatives, which attracted international financial incentives and public-private partnerships. Since mangroves are mostly located on the land occupied by indigenous people and local communities, ensuring respect for their land rights and equity in economic benefit sharing may increase their intrinsic motivation and participation in mangrove restoration and conservation initiatives. Remote sensing tools for mangrove monitoring, evaluation, and reporting, and integrated education and awareness campaigns can ensure the long-term conservation of mangroves while sustaining ecotourism's economic infrastructure and social amenities benefits.

Integrating socioeconomic and ecological data into restoration practice

Driven by the United Nations Decade on Restoration and international funding initiatives, such as the Mangrove Breakthrough, investment in mangrove restoration is expected to increase. Yet, mangrove restoration efforts frequently fail, usually because of ad hoc site-selection processes that do not consider mangrove ecology and the socioeconomic context. Using decision analysis, we developed an approach that accounts for socioeconomic and ecological data to identify sites with the highest likelihood of mangrove restoration success. We applied our approach in the Biosphere Reserve Marismas Nacionales Nayarit, Mexico, an area that recently received funding for implementing mangrove restoration actions. We identified 468 potential restoration sites, assessed their restorability potential based on socioeconomic and ecological metrics, and ranked sites for implementation with spatial optimization. The metrics we used included favorable conditions for propagules to establish and survive under sea-level rise, provision of ecosystem services, and community dynamics. Sites that were selected based on socioeconomic or ecological metrics alone had lower likelihood of mangrove restoration success than sites that were selected based on integrated socioeconomic and ecological metrics. For example, selecting sites based on only socioeconomic metrics captured 16% of the maximum attainable value of functioning mangroves able to provide propagules to potential restoration sites, whereas selecting sites based on ecological and socioeconomic metrics captured 46% of functioning mangroves. Our approach was developed as part of a collaboration between nongovernmental organizations, local government, and academics under rapid delivery time lines given preexisting mangrove restoration implementation commitments. The systematic decision process we used integrated socioeconomic and ecological considerations even under short delivery deadlines, and our approach can be adapted to help mangrove restoration site-selection decisions elsewhere.

Comparison of the coexistence pattern of mangrove macrobenthos between natural and artificial reforestation

The abandoned pond-to-mangrove restoration project provides greater advantages than tidal flats afforestation in restoring mangrove ecosystem services and will be the primary method for mangrove restoration in the future. The existing methods for abandoned pond-to-mangrove restoration include artificial restoration through 'dike-breaking, filling with imported soil and tree planting' and natural restoration through 'dike-breaking and natural succession'. However, little is known about which restoration strategy (natural or artificial restoration) provides more benefits to the biodiversity of mangrove macrobethos. Given a prevailing view suggested that artificial restoration should be the preferred approach for accelerating recovery of biodiversity and vegetation structure in tropical regions, we hypothesised higher macrobenthic biodiversity and more complex community structure in artificial restoration than in natural restoration. To test this hypothesis, macrobenthic biodiversity and ecological processes were monitored in a typical abandoned pond-to-mangrove area of Dongzhaigang Bay, China, where artificial and natural restoration methods were used concurrently. Differences in macrobenthic biodiversity, community structure and ecological processes were compared using diversity indices, complex network analysis and null models. Similar species composition and ecological niche overlap and width among macrobenthos were observed at artificial and natural restoration sites. The biotic heterogeneity and interaction among macrobenthos were higher at the natural restoration sites than at the artificial restoration sites. Macrobenthos community assembly at natural and artificial restoration sites was both determined by deterministic processes, with environmental filtering dominating, which explained 52% and 54% of the variations in macrobenthic community structures respectively. Although our findings did not validate the research hypothesis, higher biotic heterogeneity and species interaction among macrobenthos could support natural restoration as the primary method for abandoned pond-to-mangrove projects, because it is a nature-based solution for mangrove restoration.

Microbial diversity and keystone species drive soil nutrient cycling and multifunctionality following mangrove restoration

Vegetation restoration exerts transformative effects on nutrient cycling, microbial communities, and ecosystem functions. While extensive research has been conducted on the significance of mangroves and their restoration efforts, the effectiveness of mangrove restoration in enhancing soil multifunctionality in degraded coastal wetlands remains unclear. Herein, we carried out a field experiment to explore the impacts of mangrove restoration and its chronosequence on soil microbial communities, keystone species, and soil multifunctionality, using unrestored aquaculture ponds as controls. The results revealed that mangrove restoration enhanced soil multifunctionality, with these positive effects progressively amplifying over the restoration chronosequence. Furthermore, mangrove restoration led to a substantial increase in microbial diversity and a reshaping of microbial community composition, increasing the relative abundance of dominant phyla such as Nitrospirae, Deferribacteres, and Fusobacteria. Soil multifunctionality exhibited positive correlations with microbial diversity, suggesting a link between variations in microbial diversity and soil multifunctionality. Metagenomic screening demonstrated that mangrove restoration resulted in a simultaneous increase in the abundance of nitrogen (N) related genes, such as N fixation (nirD/H/K), nitrification (pmoA-amoA/B/C), and denitrification (nirK, norB/C, narG/H, napA/B), as well as phosphorus (P)-related genes, including organic P mineralization (phnX/W, phoA/D/G, phnJ/N/P), inorganic P solubilization (gcd, ppx-gppA), and transporters (phnC/D/E, pstA/B/C/S)). The relationship between the abundance of keystone species (such as phnC/D/E) and restoration-induced changes in soil multifunctionality indicates that mangrove restoration enhances soil multifunctionality through an increase in the abundance of keystone species associated with N and P cycles. Additionally, it was observed that changes in microbial community and multifunctionality were largely associated with shifts in soil salinity. These findings demonstrate that mangrove restoration positively influences soil multifunctionality and shapes nutrient dynamics, microbial communities, and overall ecosystem resilience. As global efforts continue to focus on ecosystem restoration, understanding the complexity of mangrove-soil interactions is critical for effective nutrient management and mangrove conservation.

Spatio-temporal variation and drivers of blue carbon sequestration in Hainan Island, China

Blue carbon ecosystems, such as mangrove, seagrass bed and salt marsh, have attracted increasing attention due to their remarkable capacity for efficient carbon sequestration. However, the current threat posed by human activities to these ecosystems necessitates the characterization of their changes and identification of the primary driving factors in order to facilitate the gradual restoration of blue carbon ecosystems. In this study, we present an analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics and primary influencing factors governing carbon sequestration in mangrove and seagrass beds located in Hainan Island. The findings revealed a 40% decline in carbon sequestration by mangroves from 1976 to 2017, while seagrass beds exhibited a 13% decrease in carbon sequestering between 2009 and 2016. The decline in carbon sequestration was primarily concentrated in Wenchang city, with aquaculture and population growth identified as the primary driving factors. Despite the implementation of measures aimed at reducing aquaculture in Hainan Island to promote blue carbon sequestration over the past two decades, the resulting recovery remains insufficient in achieving macro-level goals for carbon sequestration. This study emphasizes the necessity of safeguarding blue carbon ecosystems in Hainan Island by effectively mitigating anthropogenic disturbances.

Planning hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands: Key model considerations and solutions

The hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands is an emerging approach for mitigating and adapting to climate change and enhancing ecosystem services such as improved water quality and biodiversity. This paper synthesises current knowledge on selecting appropriate modelling approaches for hydrological restoration projects. The selection of a modelling approach is based on project-specific factors, such as costs, risks, and uncertainties, and aligns with the overall project objectives. We provide guidance on model selection, emphasising the use of simpler and less expensive modelling approaches when appropriate, and identifying situations when models may not be required for project managers to make informed decisions. This paper recognises and supports the widespread use of hydrological restoration in coastal wetlands by bridging the gap between hydrological science and restoration practices. It underscores the significance of project objectives, budget, and available data and offers decision-making frameworks, such as decision trees, to aid in matching modelling methods with specific project outcomes.

Mangrove ecosystems in Southeast Asia region: Mangrove extent, blue carbon potential and CO2 emissions in 1996-2020

This study aimed to analyze mangrove extent (ME), carbon stock, blue carbon potential, and CO2 emission from 1996 to 2020 in Southeast Asia region. The data was obtained through the Global Mangrove Alliance (GMA) on the platform www.globalmangrovewatch.org v.3. Furthermore, ME was analyzed descriptively and the triggers for mangrove land changes in each country were investigated through a relevant literature review. The spatial analysis was conducted for blue carbon potential, while CO2 emission was derived by multiplying net change by emission factor (EF) of mangrove ecosystem. The results showed that the total ME in Southeast Asia was 5.07 million hectares (Mha) in 1996, decreasing to 4.82 Mha by 2020 due to various land uses, primarily shrimp farming. The total carbon stock potential was 2367.68 MtC, while a blue carbon potential was 8682.32 MtCO2-e, consisting of 1304.33 MtCO2-e and 7377.99 MtCO2-e from above-ground and soil carbon. Indonesia contributed 5939.57 MtCO2-e to blue carbon potential, while Singapore and Timor-Leste had the lowest contributions of 1.05 MtCO2-e and 1.37 MtCO2-e, respectively. Carbon stock potential (AGC and SOC) in Southeast Asia was influenced by ME conditions. The relationship between ME and AGC was found to be exponential (AGC = 0.0307e0.8938x; R2 = 0.9331; rME-AGC = 0.9964, P < 0.01). Similarly, ME and SOC, or AGC and SOC showed a relationship where SOC = 0.2e0.8829x (R2 = 0.937, rME-SOC = 0.9965 and rAGC-SOC = 0.9989, P < 0.01). The average CO2-e emission in Southeast Asia reached 17.0760 MtCO2-e yr-1 and the largest were attributed to Indonesia at 16.3817 MtCO2-e yr-1. Meanwhile, Brunei and Timor Leste did not show CO2-e emission as mangrove in these countries absorbed more CO2 from the atmosphere at -0.034 MtCO2-e yr-1 and -0.0002 MtCO2-e yr-1, respectively.

Exploring the spatio-temporal patterns of global mangrove gross primary production and quantifying the factors affecting its estimation, 1996-2020

Mangrove ecosystems, as an important component of "Blue Carbon", play a curial role on global carbon cycling; however, the lack of the global estimates of mangrove ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) and the underlying environmental controls on its estimation remain a gap in knowledge. In this study, we utilized global mangrove eddy covariance data and applied Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to estimate GPP for global mangrove ecosystems, aiming to elucidate the factors influencing these estimates. The optimal GPR achieved favorable estimation performance through cross-validation (R2 = 0.90, RMSE = 0.92 gC/m2/day, WI = 0.86). Over the study period, the globally annual averaged GPP was 2054.53 ± 38.51 gC/m2/yr (comparable to that of evergreen broadleaf forests and exceeds the GPP of most other plant function types), amounting to a total of 304.82 ± 7.71TgC/yr, hotspots exceeding 3000 gC/m2/yr observed near the equator. The analysis revealed a decline in global mangrove GPP during 1996-2020 of -0.89 TgC/yr. Human activities (changes in mangrove cover area) played a relatively consistent role in contributing to this decrease. Conversely, variations in external environmental conditions showed distinct inter-annual differences in their impact. The spatio-temporal distribution patterns of mangrove ecosystems GPP (e.g., the bimodal annual pattern, latitudinal gradients, etc.) demonstrated the regulatory influence of external environmental conditions on GPP estimates. The model ensemble attribution analysis indicated that the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation exerted the dominant control on GPP estimations, while temperature, salinity, and humidity acted as secondary constraints. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for monitoring, modeling, and managing mangrove ecosystems GPP; and underscore the critical role of mangroves in global carbon sequestration. By quantifying the influences of environmental factors, we enhance our understanding of mangrove carbon cycling estimates, thereby helping sustain of these disproportionately productive ecosystems.

Using an ecosystem service model to inform restoration planning: A spatially explicit oyster filtration model for Pensacola Bay, Florida

The development of science-based restoration goals that reflect the primary motivation of stakeholders is a key factor leading to large-scale, long-term restoration successes. The ability to predict the potential ecosystem service delivery from restoration can inform the setting of appropriate goals and facilitate the strategic planning of restoration activities. While recovery of the ecosystem services provided by oyster reefs is a regularly cited reason for undertaking restoration, few examples exist where large-scale oyster habitat restoration plans have been informed using ecosystem service functions. Such an approach is currently being implemented in the Pensacola Bay System, Florida, where a broad coalition of partners and community stakeholders are utilizing a watershed approach to restoring oysters with the aim of restoring oysters for multiple objectives including habitat, ecosystem services, and wild harvest and aquaculture. Through the process of developing a habitat management plan, water filtration was identified as a key ecosystem service by the stakeholders. To support restoration planning we derived a spatially explicit estimate of water filtration services provided by the eastern oyster in the Pensacola Bay system by linking an oyster habitat suitability map to a hydrodynamic-oyster filtration model. This spatially explicit model allowed us to identify the areas where restored oyster reefs have the potential to provide the greatest increase in filtration service as well as provide spatially explicit estimates of the potential filtration provided by oyster habitat restored. Such information is useful in restoration planning and management and for stakeholder engagement, outreach, and education programs.

The composition, distribution, and socio-economic dimensions of Ghana's mangrove ecosystems

Mangrove ecosystems are recognised as one of the nature-based solutions to a changing climate. Notwithstanding the socio-ecological benefits of mangrove ecosystems, they are increasingly being destructed in some regions of the world. In Ghana, several studies have reported on the status, use, and management strategies of mangrove ecosystems in different sites of the country. However, these studies do not make it possible to appreciate the broader picture of Ghana's mangrove ecosystems since they are not synthesized into a single comprehensive report. This study uses the ROSES method for systematic reviews to report on Ghana's mangrove ecosystem distribution and species composition, as well as their socio-economic benefits, the anthropogenic and natural impacts on Ghana's mangrove ecosystems, and the management strategies and/or practices on Ghana's mangrove ecosystems. The study reveals there is no existing management strategy for Ghana's mangrove ecosystems, and therefore recommends the need to develop and implement policies and regulations that specifically target the protection and sustainable use of mangrove ecosystems in Ghana.

Sustainably developing global blue carbon for climate change mitigation and economic benefits through international cooperation

Blue carbon is the carbon storage in vegetated coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass. It is gaining global attention as its role in climate change mitigation and local welfare growth. However, a global assessment on the long-term spatiotemporal sustainable development status of blue carbon has not been conducted, and the relations among blue carbon ecosystems, driving forces for climate change mitigation, and socioeconomic interventions for development capacity on a global scale are still unclear. Here, we constructed a blue carbon development index (BCDI), comprising three subsystems: driving force, resource endowment, and development capacity, to assess the sustainable development level of 136 coastal countries' blue carbon over 24 consecutive years and explore the relationship among subsystems. We further propose a cooperation model to explore the feasibility of global blue carbon cooperation and quantify benefit allocation to specific countries. The results showed an upward trend in BCDI scores with variations in regional performance over the past two decades, and we found a positive correlation between development capacity and blue carbon resource endowment. Based on the scenario simulations of global cooperation, we found that coastal countries could improve the global average BCDI score, add 2.96 Mt of annual carbon sequestration, and generate $136.34 million in 2030 under Global Deep Cooperation scenario compared with the Business-As-Usual scenario.

A novel coupled framework for detecting hotspots of methane emission from the vulnerable Indian Sundarban mangrove ecosystem using data-driven models

Coastal mangroves have been lost to deforestation for anthropogenic activities such as agriculture over the past two decades. The genesis of methane (CH₄), a significant greenhouse gas (GHG) with a high potential for global warming, occurs through these mangrove beds. The mangrove forests in the Indian Sundarban deltaic region were studied for pre-monsoonal and post-monsoonal variations of CH₄ emission. Considering the importance of CH₄ emission, a process-based spatiotemporal (PBS) and an analytical neural network (ANN) model were proposed and used to estimate the amount of CH₄ emission from different land use land cover classes (LULC) of mangroves. The field work was performed in 2020, and gas samples of various LULC were directly collected from the mangrove bed using the enclosed box chamber method. Historical climatic data (1960-1989) were used to predict future climate scenarios and associated CH₄ emissions. The analysis and estimation activities were carried out utilizing satellite images from the pre-monsoonal and post-monsoonal seasons of the same year. The study revealed that pre-monsoonal CH₄ emission was higher in the south-west and northern parts of the deforested mangrove of the Indian Sundarban. A sensitivity study of the anticipated models was conducted using a variety of environmental input parameters and related main field observations. The measured precision area under curve of receiver operating characteristics was 0.753 for PBS and 0.718 for ANN models, respectively. The temperature factor (T_f) was the most crucial variable for CH₄ emissions. Based on the PBS model with coupled model intercomparison project-6 temperature data, a global circulation model was run to predict increasing CH₄ emissions up to 2100. The model revealed that the agricultural lands were the prime emitters of CH₄ in the Sundarban mangrove ecosystem.